AFL PREVIEWS & PLAYS
... with OnThePunt's Aussie Rules Guru
Updated 11:41 PM AEST, Thursday 29 September
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AFL GRAND FINAL
Collingwood v Geelong
Either Team Under 15.5 points
3 at 2.80
-3
J Bartel to win Norm Smith
0.5 at 10.82
+4.91
J Corey to win Norm Smith
0.5 at 26.00
-0.5
The two expected teams arrive in the Grand
Final and despite Collingwood being favourite all season, Geelong have
been firming up all week which i think is right. Their form appears to
be slightly better and they have held an edge over the Pies this season.
That said, we would be foolish do disregard Collingwood's chances. Their
win last week was terrific when you consider Hawthorn outplayed them for
most the night. To get over the line against quality opposition playing
a long way from their best was a great result. The Cats did what they
had to do last week, putting West Coast away before sitting in cruise
control in the second half. Looking for options to bet this match I'm
going to play the tri-bet either team under 15. My numbers have it close
and the market has it close and factor in some potential ordinary
weather and I can see this as a fairly low scoring dog fight. If the
expected weather arrives I might nibble on a couple of Geelong's hard
nuts in the Norm Smith Market. Good luck which ever way you go this
week. The year has not been as good as I would have liked as we could
never really get going. Hopefully we can look to produce some better
results in season 2012. Play Tri-bet either team under 15.5 points for 3
Units. Play Norm Smith Medal 0.5 unit Bartel and 0.5 unit Joel Coey.
AFL FINALS WEEK THREE
Collingwood v Hawthorn
NO PLAY
Interesting match here between two sides
who I think have dropped slightly from their respective best form
throughout the season. Collingwood's last 4-5 matches have been below
par for what we have come to expect from them. The Hawks have played
well in patches but cant seem to string four quarters together.
Hawthorn's strength this season I think will be their downfall Friday
night. Their precise movement of the ball has been good enough against
most sides but has been badly exposed against Collingwood and in
particular Geelong. Hawthorn will give the Pies a run for their money
but its hard to see Collingwood not getting the job done here. The line
does look around the mark however. No Play.
Geelong -28.5 v West Coast
3 at 1.92
+2.76
Geelong 40+ v West Coast
3 at 2.56
+4.68
Geelong 60+ v West Coast
2 at 4.60
-2
Out of the four teams remaining, the Cats
appear to have timed their run the best. They welcome back Joel Corey
which is a huge in, but you have to feel for young Menzal, he really
looks like a solid player. West Coast have had a very good finals season
but both of their matches have been brutal high pressure games. Take
into account the travel factor and I get the feeling they will run out
of legs here. There are also concerns that a number of their players are
carrying injuries. I can see the Coast hanging with Geelong early but
really getting put away late by a far fresher side. Play Geelong -28.5
for 3 units, Geelong 40+ for 3 units and Geelong 60+ for 2 units.
AFL FINALS WEEK TWO
Sydney +16.5 v Hawthorn
3 at 1.92
-3
Either Team under 15.5 points
2 at 3.05
-2
Hawthorn was not all bad last week it was
very good match with the Hawks falling down defensively which cost them
dearly. Shoemakers is not up to this level and Stratton will be a good
addition. As for Franklin, I may be wrong but seeing footage of him on
training track, I would be staggered if he plays and with lisle and
Bruest listed as emergencies Hawks are leaving themselves some options.
Sydney have really hit a purple patch of form. Their rally shows a
tremendous sprit within the group and thrown in adam Goodes' 300th and
they will fancy themselves here. I'm leaning towards the Hawks getting
over the line but the Swans pushing them all the way. Play Sydney +15.5
or better points for 3 Units and Either Team Under 15pts for 2 units.
West Coast -13.5 v Carlton
3 at 1.93
-3
West Coast 40+ v Carlton
2 at 4.10
-2
West Coast went very close to a massive
boil over last week. Their pressure on Collingwood was outstanding and
they will be pleased to be back at Subiaco were they have now won their
last 10 games by an average of 47 points. Carlton were good last week
but Essendon did drop off very quickly and there is no way they will be
allowed the same freedom they got against the Bombers. The Blues have
had a very good season and their speed will be handy on the big ground
but missing Gibbs and Kruzer hurts though. For mine the Coast should
just be too good here and have the Blues covered fairly comfortably.
Play West Coast -14.5 or better points for 3 Units and West Coast 40+
for 2 units.
AFL FINALS WEEK ONE
Geelong v Hawthorn
Either Team under 15.5 points
3 at 2.85
-3
In my opinion, the best match up in current
day football - whenever these two clash it always seems to be a classic.
The Cats have had the edge in recent history although only just, with
Hawthorn in winning positions in each of their last six losses to
Geelong. The Cats tuned up beautifully last week and despite the Pies
being clear flag faves, no team has a better form line than Geelong with
victories over top eight sides. Of course the Hawks bring all their big
guns back so they will be fresh and rearing to go. It is such a massive
game this with the winner a huge chance to play in the Grand Final, so
expect no holding back and I'm expecting another thriller. Play the
Tri-Bet Either Team Under 15.5 points for 3 Units.
Collingwood 40+ v West Coast
3 at 2.42
-3
Collingwood have looked like they have been
in 2nd gear for the last month. I do get the feeling that their best
season form will return on Saturday. Their in's are huge and it will be
interesting to see how they respond after a few weeks out of the game
-particularly Maxwell and Shaw. West Coast's form has been really good
lately and the combination of Cox and Naitanui will cause problems, but
other than that I see Collingwood holding the edge just about everywhere
else. For mine, they will send a message on Saturday that they’re back
to their very best. Play Collingwood 40+ for 3 units.
Sydney +18.5 v St Kilda
3 at 1.90
+2.7
Both teams enter the finals in really good
form and this should be a fascinating clash. Most people are expecting a
low scoring dog fight, and it's hard to see anything else but both teams
have shown at times this season that they are capable of open flowing
football. But I doubt we will see Saturday night. Since the tragic event
that occurred to the Mcveigh family, Sydney really seem to have really
bonded and have played with great intensity over the last couple weeks.
The Saints got over the Blues late last week and nabbed themselves a
home final at Ethiad where they are very tough to beat. Really tough
call this one and similar to the Geel/Haw game, I’m expecting it to be
really close and the line for the Swans looks appealing. I'm expecting
them to be in the game long enough to have a great chance of covering.
Play Sydney +18.5 points for 3 Units.
Essendon to beat Carlton
2 at 3.18
-2
The Blues are not really hitting September
in the best of form and also have some injury concerns. Losing Kreuzer
hurts but they will hold the edge in the midfield and by all rights they
really should have Essendon's measure. But this is a strong a side as
Essendon has fielded for many weeks. The Bombers have shown this season
if on song the can go tow to tow with anyone. I think they represent
value this week more at their win price than the line if the Blues get a
sniff early they could run over the top, but I'm expecting the Bombers
to be up and about here and they would love nothing more than to knock
off their old rival out of the finals. At the odds look worth a little
speculator. Play Essendon to win 2 units.
AFL ROUND TWENTY-FOUR
Hawthorn -32.5 v Gold Coast
3 at 1.90
-3
The Hawks have taken the opportunity to
rest some of their big guns before their final next Friday and have
brought a host of fringe players in. The line saw a dramatic drop
yesterday afternoon and rightly so with the changes to their team but I
think it's gone a little low. The Hawks form is great and a lot of these
players will be going flat out to try and get a berth in next week’s
finals side. As mentioned before, the Gold Coast season appears to be
petering out as the long season takes its toll on their young bodies. A
depleted Hawks to cover for mine. Play Hawthorn -32.5 points for 3
Units.
Bulldogs -46.5 v Fremantle
3 at 2.04
-3
It should be an emotional day for the Dogs
as they send out Hall, Hahn and Hudson. Their form has been reseasonable
since the departure of Eade. I thought they played quite well against
the Hawks last week and the final margin did not reflect their
performance in the match. The Dockers currently have one of the worst
injury lists I have ever seen and the last couple weeks has seen the
group playing with little or no motivation. It's hard to see them being
up here on a fast track. With a lot to play for with sending off well
respected players, I think the Dogs will run out big winners. Play
Bulldogs -46.5 points for 3 Units.
Port Adel. +10.5 v Melbourne
3 at 1.85
+2.55
I just can’t let another week go without
having a bet on Port Adelaide game. Thankfully, the finals next week so
I wont have to worry about them anymore. Last week they showed what they
can do for the first time in a long time. Up forward they found Butcher
who looks like he could be anything and with Schultz playing well up
forward as well they look dangerous. It is also a big day for the club
playing at Adelaide Oval which will give the fans a sign of things to
come. Add in Brogan's last game and hopefully we will see them switched
on like last week. Melbourne look to be running on empty petrol tickets.
I thought they were pretty flat week in getting over the top of GC in
what was one of the worst matches we have seen this year. I fancy Port
to get the job done here and hopefully I can get one of thier games
right this season. Play Port Adelaide +10.5 points for 3 Units.
2011 RECORD
ROUND
RESULT
STAKES
ROI
BEST BET
GF
+1.41
4
35%
N/A
FINALS 3
+5.44
8
68%
N/A
FINALS 2
-10.00
10
-100%
N/A
FINALS 1
-5.30
11
-48%
N/A
24
-3.45
9
-38%
N/A
23
-7.00
7
-100%
22
+5.46
9
61%
N/A
21
-3.27
9
36%
N/A
20
+2.58
15
17%
N/A
19
-6.00
6
-100%
N/A
18
-0.30
6
5%
N/A
17
+2.49
9
28%
N/A
16
+2.52
9
28%
N/A
15
+5.46
6
91%
N/A
14
-0.33
12
-3%
N/A
13
+0.36
7
5%
12
+12.45
15
83%
N/A
11
-11.00
11
-100%
N/A
10
-9.00
9
-100%
N/A
9
+4.16
11
38%
8
-1.30
8
-16%
7
-3.18
9
-35%
6
-0.24
6
-4%
N/A
5
+1.85
10
19%
4
+2.30
6
38%
N/A
3
-1.85
8
-23%
2
+0.76
5
15%
N/A
1
-2.13
9
-24%
TOTAL
-17.11 units
244
-7%
38%
PAST
RECORD
ROUND
RESULT
STAKES
ROI
BEST BET
2010
+0.75 units
186.5
0%
35%
2009
-1.86 units
184
-1%
67%
2008
+25.31 units
169
15%
70%
2007
+54.74 units
246.5
22%
82%
RECORD
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FUTURES
GOLF
2012 US MASTERS
Mickelson, Phil 6.00
Mcilroy, Rory 7.00
Woods, Tiger 8.50
Westwood, Lee 21.00
Donald, Luke 21.00
Watney, Nick 26.00
Kaymer, Martin 34.00
Johnson, Dustin 34.00
Scott, Adam 34.00
Schwartzel, C 34.00
Day, Jason 34.00
Mahan, Hunter 36.00
Garcia, Sergio 36.00
Mcdowell, Graeme 36.00
Watson, Bubba 36.00
Kim, Anthony 36.00
Ogilvy, Geoff 36.00
Fowler, Rickie 36.00
Harrington, P 41.00
Stricker, Steve 41.00
Poulter, Ian 41.00
Cabrera, Angel 41.00
Kuchar, Matt 41.00
Simpson, Webb 41.00
-3
+4.91
RECORD
