AFL PREVIEWS & PLAYS
... with OnThePunt's Aussie Rules Guru
Updated 4:46 PM AEST, Friday 3 September
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AFL ROUND FINALS WEEK ONE
Geelong v St Kilda
Either Team under 15.5 points
1 at 3.00
?
Geelong bolster up with some good
inclusions to have what is possibly their strongest combination for the
year, while St Kilda surprise us a little with the immediate return of
Baker, and bring in some important small forwards. These sides have
played two tight, low scoring contests at the MCG, and this one should
be no different. Interestingly, the last time they each played at the
'G, they both lost to Collingwood! This will be a close tussle in
possibly wet conditions – bet 1 unit on Either Team <15.5 points
Hawthorn -6.5 v Fremantle
1 at 1.97
?
The bookies have this as the closest match
of the round, and the only one where the lower placed team is the
favourite. Freo are still nowhere near their peak, and the loss of
Ballantyne won't help, while Hawthorn get back the leadership of Hodge.
The round 21 clash between these two is meaningless, but Hawthorn have a
good record at Subi, and are one of the scariest sides in the finals.
Bet 1 unit on Hawthorn -6.5 points.
Collingwood -24.5 v Bulldogs
2 at 2.01
Some important returns for
Collingwood, who seem to be oozing with depth, while the 'Dogs are still
suffering from injuries and have selected Johnson & Griffen despite
doubts as to their fitness. It's an old adage that you don't go into a
final with players who aren't 100%, so there may be some late changes,
and this isn't sudden death for anyone just yet. These teams have not
played at the MCG since 2006 - Collingwood have played their last 500
games there, and the Bulldogs much prefer the faster Etihad Stadium. The
line is 24.5 points, but given the form and fitness of both teams, and
possibly wet MCG, I reckon it's too low. Bet 2 units on Collingwood -24.5
points (BEST BET)
Sydney v Carlton
NO PLAY
Sydney get back three key players from
injury, and interestingly, Carlton drop Hampson from the ruck. Sydney
are spitting chips that their "home" game is being played at their
non-preferred ANZ Stadium, but they should still have the measure of
Carlton. Sydney should win this, but given the conditions, the line is
too close to call, and I don't see much value elsewhere. NO PLAY
AFL ROUND TWENTY-TWO
Fremantle -8.5 v Carlton
1 at 1.92
-1
Just a 'few' changes at Fremantle this week
after last week's debacle, while Carlton bring in Yarran to add some
pace around the forward line. Have Freo done the right thing by resting
half their team? The teams are playing off for a home final, which given
the make-up of the 5-8 teams, is a very valuable thing. That said, it’s
hard to say how much Carlton want it, and may treat this as a prelude to
a rematch next week. Bet 1 unit on Fremantle -8.5 points.
Geelong v West Coast
NO PLAY
Geelong bring back four top players while
no change at West Coast. The line is a whopping 70.5 points, which is
the highest I have seen all season, although given previous results, not
quite so surprising. That said, it is Round 22, and often the unexpected
happens, so NO PLAY.
Hawthorn +13.5 v Collingwood
2 at 1.92
+1.84
Hawthorn have a couple of big outs, while
Collingwood have so much depth they give Fraser his 200th, although will
miss Didak. Hawthorn match up well against Collingwood, and have a lot
more to play for. Bet 2 units on Hawthorn +12.5 or better points.
Adelaide v St Kilda
NO PLAY
Adelaide, who gave Collingwood (and me) a
bit of a shock last week, make just one forced change. St Kilda bring
back their best players as they gear up for the finals. You’d think St
Kilda will power over them, but with their position on the ladder locked
in, better to stay safe and NO PLAY.
Sydney over 15.5 v Brisbane
1 at 1.78
+0.78
Brown was great for Brisbane last week, but
is now out again. Sydney get O'Keefe back but lose Mumford. Brisbane are
depleted and aren't playing for much any more, while Sydney are striking
some good form. Bet 1 unit on Sydney >15.5 points.
W. Bulldogs -30.5 v Essendon
2 at 1.92
-2
The Bulldogs, with a recent spate of
injuries and some losses, lose another 3 experienced players as they try
to find some momentum going into September. They need a confidence
booster before the finals, and are playing the best team who can deliver
that. Essendon are a complete mess, have lost Watson to boot, will be
unable to stop the Bulldogs’ run at Etihad Stadium. Bet 2 units on
Bulldogs -30.5 points (BEST BET).
Richmond -6.5 v Port Adelaide
2 at 1.93
-2
Richmond have only beaten interstate teams
this year, and get their chance for another one to wrap up what has been
the best season a 15th ranked team could ask for. They lose a couple of
key defenders, but Cousins is fighting fit to play his last game, and
Riewoldt has a clear lead for the Coleman. Port have won 4 of their last
5, all of them at home, but lose Ebert. Look for a big Tiger finish
after last week’s strong effort, and bet 2 units on Richmond -7.5 or
better points.
Melbourne v Nth Melbourne
Total Points Over 181.5
1 at 1.90
+0.90
Melbourne get back Sylvia and Bate while
North's Jones comes in for a farewell game. This was nearly an important
game, but with both teams out of the running, it may only be a harbinger
of blockbusters to come. North have a very good record against
Melbourne, but the Demons do very well at the MCG. The line is too close
– so if you feel in the mood and things have gone well for you this
weekend, bet 1 unit on Total Points Scored to go over 181.5.
AFL ROUND TWENTY-ONE
Geelong -28.5 v Carlton
2 at 1.92
+1.84
Both teams coming off huge wins last week.
Geelong sent a strong message after a loss, and get three experienced
players back, while Carlton make no changes. While Carlton surprised
Geelong earlier in the season, the Cats are gearing up for the real
stuff, and will want to send the league another message. Bet 2 units on
Geelong -29.5 points
Richmond +44.5 v St Kilda
1 at 1.92
+0.92
St Kilda are again giving a youngster a go,
and seem to be coming into red hot form for September. Richmond again
make a huge number of changes, and while getting Cotchin back is good,
it is offset by the loss of Jackson in the middle. Richmond haven't
matched up that well against St Kilda, but the line is quite high, so
bet 1 unit on Richmond +43.5 or better points
Fremantle +42.5 v Hawthorn
1 at 1.92
-1
Hawthorn get Rioli back, while Freo seem to
have an epidemic of "general soreness" in the lead up to the finals.
Between that and the regular loss of players to real injuries in recent
weeks, Freo are clearly starting to feel the length of the season. Both
teams are locked in to a finish in the 5th to 8th spots, and there's not
a whole lot in this. The line seems just a little high, so bet 1 unit on
Fremantle +41.5 or better points.
Collingwood -50.5 v Adelaide
2 at 1.90
-2
Collingwood get back
Ball and Goldsack from injury, while Adelaide lose a couple and give
Bock time off to bask in the sun. The 'Pies are looking quite ominous
and keep covering the line against almost every team they play. It's
hard to go past them doing the same on a clear night at the 'G, so bet 2
units on Collingwood -52.5 or better points
(BEST BET)
Sydney v Western Bulldogs
Either Team under 15.5 points
1 at 3.15
-1
Sydney lose a couple of good players to
injury while the Dogs get back some players after their flu outbreak,
but have several more out injured, and doubts over Lake, so there may be
some late changes. Sydney could get a home final but the Bulldogs will
want to make amends for last week's flogging. On only one occasion have
they lost two in a row this season, and in that case, the second team
was Collingwood. That said, they haven't played at the SCG for some
time. This should be a close one, so bet 1 unit on Either Team <15.5
points
Port Adelaide v Melbourne
Either Team under 15.5 points
1 at 3.20
-1
Logan is out for Port after last week's
narrow win, and at least two changes at Melbourne, who after last week
can no longer make the finals. Port seem to play quite well against
Melbourne, so this should be an entertaining and close encounter. Bet 1
unit on Either Team <15.5 points
Essendon v Brisbane
NO PLAY
Essendon lose two to injury and debut a 24
year old rookie. Brisbane get Brown back for his 200th. Knights is under
fire, there is uncertainty all over the place, and the Bombers are
coming off two floggings. I sense that the odds are very wrong here, but
can't put my finger on it. NO PLAY
West Coast to bt N. Melbourne
1 at 2.15
-1
West Coast debut another kid, while North
lose a couple of good players for Harvey's 300th. With almost no chance
of playing in the finals (and they will know this by the time the match
starts), and a poor record in the west, bet 1 unit on West Coast WIN.
2010 RECORD
ROUND
RESULT
STAKES
ROI
BEST BET
22
-1.48
9
-16%
21
-3.24
9
-36%
20
-2.26
8
-28%
19
-1.33
9
-15%
18
+0.71
9
8%
17
+2.81
8
35%
16
+0.60
9
50%
15
+0.64
7
9%
14
+0.90
8
11%
13
+5.77
8
72%
12
+0.51
9
6%
11
+2.44
9
27%
10
+3.30
6
55%
N/A
9
-3.20
7
-46%
8
-3.78
9.5
-40%
7
+4.41
7
63%
6
-5.85
9
-65%
5
-0.37
8
-5%
4
+0.27
7.5
4%
3
+0.66
7
9%
2
-0.04
9
0%
1
+2.93
9.5
31%
TOTAL
+3.89 units
172.5
3%
33%
PAST
RECORD
ROUND
RESULT
STAKES
ROI
BEST BET
2009
-1.86 units
184
-1%
67%
2008
+25.31 units
169
15%
70%
2007
+54.74 units
246.5
22%
82%
RECORD
Click
here
to view our guru's full record since 2007.
2010 BRITISH OPEN
Tiger Woods 4.50
Lee Westwood 13.00
Phil Mickelson 15.00
P Harrington 17.00
Rory Mcilroy 17.00
Ernie Els 21.00
Ian Poulter 31.00
Adam Scott 34.00
Anthony Kim 34.00
Paul Casey 34.00
Martin Kaymer 34.00
Sergio Garcia 41.00
Jim Furyk 41.00
Geoff Ogilvy 41.00
Luke Donald 41.00
Retief Goosen 41.00
Hunter Mahan 41.00
Steve Stricker 41.00
Ross Fisher 41.00
G Mcdowell 41.00
-1
+1.84
RECORD
