AFL PREVIEWS & PLAYS
... with OnThePunt's Aussie Rules Guru
Updated 9:52 AM AEST, Friday 26 September
AFL GRAND FINAL
Geelong vs Hawthorn
NO PLAY
Geelong included Chapman for the unlucky
Wojcinski whilst the Hawks went in unchanged from the side that belted
St Kilda last week. It looks to be a great game on paper, lets hope we
get a match that can rival the 1989 Grand Final. The Hawks got to within
11 points of the Cats in Round 17 but the Cats were missing Ablett,
Ling, Milburn and Chapman didn’t play in the 2nd half of the game. On
the other hand, the Hawks probably didn’t play that great and produced a
number of clangers in the last quarter when they looked a chance to win
the game. The cats have been the barometer of the competition all year
with the Hawks the only real challenger. I am a little concerned that
Buddy Franklin (hand) and Luke Hodge (ribs) are carrying injuries into
the game but they are the keys to a Hawks win so they must roll the dice
and gamble on their fitness. I thought the bookies got the price and
line correct so no bet for me.
AFL FINALS WEEK THREE
Geelong vs Western Bulldogs
NO PLAY
The Cats lost Prismall and Chapman to
injury but included Kelly and Wojcinski. The Bulldogs made no changes to
the team that belted the Swans last week. The Cats have been the
barometer of the AFL over the last 2 years and have only lost once in
their last 10 matches at the MCG. The Bulldogs have won 6 out of their
last 10 games at the MCG. The Bulldogs have won only 4 out its last 10
games and only 2 of its last 6 games so it’s hard to mount a case for
them to beat Geelong. If Geelong turns up with it’s A game it could be a
blow out. The Cats have too many good players for the Bulldogs to tag so
the only option I see is for the Dogs to play their free flowing running
game but I don’t think they will be good enough to beat the Cats. The
Cats will be too strong but with odds around 1.10 and the line around
40.5 I am happy not to get involved in this game.
St Kilda to bt Hawthorn
2 at 3.53
-2
The Hawks lost Stokes with a tight
hamstring and included Ellis. The Saints included Ball for the injured
Allen. The Hawks has won 7 out of its last 10 games at the MCG while the
Saints have won only 5 from its last 10 games at the MCG. St Kilda has a
great record against the Hawks winning 7 out of the last 10 games and 6
from their last 7 games. Both sides have some injury concerns over
players specifically Ball and Croad. The Saints have hit form at the
right time of the year and with two wins against the Hawks in 2008 the
3.50 on offer from the bookies looks good odds. Bet 2 units on St Kilda
at 3.50 or better.
AFL FINALS WEEK TWO
Western Bulldogs vs Sydney
NO PLAY
The Western Bulldogs dropped Ray for
Tiller and the Swans made no changes. The Bulldogs beat Sydney in both
games this year before that Sydney had won the previous 5 matches
between the sides. The Swans have played at the MCG once in 2008 against
Hawthorn for a loss. The bulldogs have played 3 times at the MCG in 2008
for 2 wins and a loss last week to Hawthorn. Both sides form has been
very ordinary over the past 10 weeks both winning only 4 from their last
10 games respectively. The Swans were terrible in the first ½ last week
but probably played their bets football in a long time dominating the
2nd half against North Melbourne. I thought the Bulldogs should start
slight favourites in Melbourne and have been 1.80 into 1.70 with most
Bookies. Some wild wind has hit Melbourne during Friday and this may
swing things back in the Swans favour as the Bulldogs like the free
flowing game whereas the Swans can handle the windy swirly conditions.
Price looked about right so no bet for me.
St Kilda to bt Collingwood
2 at 2.12
+2.24
Collingwood included Burns at the expense
of R Shaw which did surprise me. St Kilda included Ball and Armitage for
X Clarke and C Gardiner. I expected the Saints to name Ball but there is
a doubt on whether he will play. Collingwood has a doubt over Travis
Cloke where it is rumoured he may have Glandular Fever but Collingwood
say it’s only a virus. I expect last changes for both sides in this
game. Collingwood has won their last 3 matches against St Kilda
including both this year. Both games this year have been close with
Collingwood winning by 9 points in round 8 and 14 points in round 19. I
don’t think there will be a lot in the game so bet 2 units on St Kilda
at 2.10 or better.
AFL FINALS WEEK ONE
Western Bulldogs to bt Hawthorn
2 at 3.35
-2
The Hawks have included Crawford for Ellis
but still have Campbell Brown in doubt with an injury. Campbell Brown
has not trained all week so there must be some doubt about his fitness.
The Bulldogs have included Hudson and Ray for Reid and Skipper. The
Bulldogs have beaten the Hawks 4 out of their last 5 matches. The
Bulldogs has only won 1 game in their last 4 weeks but they may have
lost focus knowing they would be playing the Hawks in the first week of
the finals. The Hawks had a similar bad patch losing in rounds 16, 17
and 20 but have bounced back with two big wins in rounds 21 and 22. The
last time they meet in Tasmania the bulldogs ran out winners by 32
points but the Hawks were missing Hodge, Crawford, Dew, and Guerra from
the side playing this week. Plus Brad Sewell played in that game and was
clearly injured and missed a number of the following weeks. The key is
whether Lake and Morris can control Franklin and Roughead. I don’t think
there will be much in the game and happy to bet 2 units on Western
Bulldogs at 3.30 or better
Adelaide vs Collingwood
NO PLAY
Adelaide lost Porplyzia to a season ending
shoulder and recalled Moran. Collingwood has included Thomas and left
out Stanley. Adelaide has hit some form late in the year winning 5 from
its last 6 matches but the loss of Porplyzia will hurt. Collingwood has
won 3 from its last 4 games before a terrible loss to Fremantle last
week. Collingwood beat the Crows by 32 points at the MCG in round 15 but
the Crows lost Burton and Porplyzia to injuries during the game.
Adelaide has won 7 out of its last 10 games at AAMI whilst Collingwood’s
form at AAMI is ok winning 6 from its last 10 games. I don’t think
there will be much in the game but think the home crowd might just get
Adelaide home.
North Melbourne to bt Sydney
2 at 2.23
-2
Sydney has included Goodes and O’Keefe for
Grundy and Veszpremi, whilst North Melbourne has dropped Mc Intosh,
Jones and Urquhart for Lower, N Thompson and Sinclair. Sydney’s has won
only 4 of its last 10 games this year and those wins were over Melbourne
(who didn’t beat Melb in 2008!), Carlton by 2 points, Fremantle by 4
points and last week when they beat Brisbane by 61 points but Brisbane
season was already over by then. North Melbourne has won 7 of its last
10 matches but has lost its last two in a row to Geelong by 33 points
(not unexpected) and a big loss to Port Adelaide last week which was not
great. The Swans have only won 5 of its last 10 games at ANZ Stadium.
North Melbourne generally bounces back after a big loss under Dean
Laidley. I though this game was closer to even money so bet 2 units on
North Melbourne at 2.15 or better.
Geelong -33.5 vs St Kilda
2 at 1.95
+1.90
The Cats included Mackie, Rooke and
Wojcinski to its expanded interchange bench. The Saints lost Dempster
with a knee injury and included Mc Qualter, Steven, Armitage and X
Clarke to its expanded interchange bench. The Saints has surprised me
over the past few weeks where I thought they would struggle to make the
final 8, but managed to slip into 4th spot with all results going their
way last week. The Saints has won 8 out of its last 10 games but now
they face the competition leaders. The Cats don’t appear to have a
weakness and the Saints look a big price at anything over 6.00 but I
don’t see how they will get anywhere near the Cats. Bet 2 units Geelong
-33.5 or better.
AFL ROUND TWENTY-TWO
Thanks to all the loyal followers of the
AFL Guru at OTP who send emails of support during the week. It looks
like another tough week from a punting perspective with sides not having
a lot of motivation to win. No bets for the week better to wait until
the finals where we know all sides will be trying.
Fremantle vs Collingwood
NO PLAY
The Dockers have only 24 players to choose
from but still found a way to drop Dodd and Peake for Hinkley and
Browne. The Dockers have won only 5 games for the year but have now lost
8 games by less than 8 points. Collingwood is also struggling with
injuries and self imposed suspensions. The Magpies lost Burns, Toovey,
Wakelin and Wellingham to injury and included Brown, Prestigiacomo, R
Shaw and Stanley. I found it hard game to price with Fremantle having
only 24 players and missing Pavlich. Collingwood has won its last 3
games in a row but the big Subiaco oval might help the Dockers. No bet
for me in this game.
Kangaroos vs Port Adel.
NO PLAY
North Melbourne included Edwards and
Campbell for Sinclair and S Thompson. Port Adelaide included Gray for
the injured Chaplin. Port has been very disappointing only winning 6
games for the year. North Melbourne is coming off a creditable loss to
Geelong but did win its last 6 matches before that game. North need to
win to get the double chance so I don’t expect them to drop this game. I
also think North will be up for Shannon Grant’s 300th game and should
cover the line. I’m not sure of Port Adelaide motivation but with rain
forecast happy not to get involved here so no bet for me.
Geelong vs West Coast
NO PLAY
The Cats included Stokes and Gamble for
Rooke who is suspended and Byrnes. West Coast included LeCras and
Schofield and dropped Notte and Braun retired. Geelong beat West Coast
by 135 points at Subiaco so the Bookies went up with lines ranging from
69.5 to 72.5. The way both sides are travelling the minus looks a good
bet but with rain forecast happy not to bet here.
Adelaide vs Bulldogs
NO PLAY
The Crows welcome back Porplyzia, Tippet
and Vince for Dangerfield, Moran and Reilly. The Bulldogs have included
Gilbee and new boy Reid for Everitt and Ward. The Crows had found some
form with 4 wins in a row before they lost to St Kilda by 48 points last
week. The Bulldogs had their second win in their last six matches with a
46 point win over an injury depleted Essendon. In round 1 the Bulldogs
won a thriller by 3 points and I see this game being no different. The
Crows have been well supported in from 1.95 to about 1.80. I think the
Crows deserve to be slight favourites at home but no bet for me.
Carlton vs Hawthorn
NO PLAY
Carlton made no changes to the side that
produced a come from behind win at the Gabba last week against Brisbane.
The Hawks have rested Crawford and Taylor for Campbell and Hodge. We all
expect Buddy Franklin to kick his 100 goals and I think the Hawks will
try and get it out the way on the first quarter. I also expect Carlton
to try and get Fevola the 8 goals he needs to make the ton. I think the
game will be a shoot out and high scoring with neither side anything to
lose. I think Carlton can win but if Hawthorn wins they will probably
cover the line but no bet for me.
Sydney vs Brisbane
NO PLAY
Sydney rested Goodes with a groin injury
and dropped Veszpremi for Malceski and Ablett. Brisbane’s season is
finished after last week’s loss to Carlton making it 6 losses from its
past 8 games. At selection Brisbane made 6 changes only Mc Grath and
Moody to injury but dropped Copeland, Hawksley, Johnstone and Hooper.
Brisbane included Selwood, Henderson, Clouston, Collier, Proud and
Harding. Sydney’s form is no better only winning 2 of its last 8 matches
(Fremantle by 4 points and Carlton by 2 points.) I thought Brisbane was
some chance in the game but not sure about the motivation now that the
season is over so no bet for me.
Melbourne vs Richmond
NO PLAY
Both sides had a number of changes to
allow for players to have farewell games and thank their respective
supporters. I don’t fancy taking the 1.20 on offer about Richmond and
the line is around 28.5 and with rain forecast happy not to get involved
in a game that means nothing to either side.
Essendon vs St. Kilda
NO PLAY
Essendon lost Mc Phee and Welsh to injury
but there is also some doubt about Watson’s fitness. The Bombers
included a host of younger players to its expanded interchange squad.
The Saints included Fiora, Allen and Armitage to its expanded
interchange squad. The Bombers will be desperate to send off Peverill,
Johnson and Ramanauskas off with a win but doubt they will be able to
match it with the inform Saints who have 7 from its last 9 games this
year. I expect the Saints to win but no bet for me.
-2
+2.24
RECORD
