AFL PREVIEWS & PLAYS
... with OnThePunt's Aussie Rules Guru
Updated 6:56 PM AEST, Friday 25 September
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AFL GRAND FINAL
Geelong vs St Kilda
Either Team under 15.5 points
1 at 3.15
+2.15
Clearly the best two teams are playing off
for the 2009 Grand Final. Geelong held favoritism all year until St
Kilda won in Round 14. Since then the Premiership betting has been very
close. Heading into the finals St Kilda looked to have snared the tag of
premiership favorite but Geelong has looked very impressive over the
past few weeks and on the back of the form of Steve Johnson, Brad Ottens
and Paul Chapman the Cats have regained the outright Premiership
favoritism. It's hard to split the teams and St Kilda only lost two
games for the whole year. This should be a great match – the result
itself is too hard to pick and there doesn't appear much value in the
line with wet weather forecast. If Geelong lose, they will have played 3
consecutive grand finals for a yield of just one premiership – and that
would be very disappointing. The weather forecast has caused the Total
Points Scored line of 166.5 to shorten to just 1.62, which doesn't look
that attractive but I get the feeling it could be like the Swans v West
Coast Grand Finals of a few years back where maybe 9 or 10 goals could
win you the match. Considering StKilda’s finals have all been
low-scoring events I don't really see this being any different. Lets
hope for a tight contest in the wet and bet 1 unit Either Team under
15.5 points. Good luck to all, and see you next season!
AFL FINALS WEEK THREE
St Kilda -18.5 vs W. Bulldogs
1 at 2.01
-1
No change on either team. The Saints are
coming off a rest and are hot favourites. The Dogs really fancy
themselves a chance against a well tuned, well rested St Kilda. Both
wins this year have happened at Etihad Stadium, the ground both teams
play best at, but they will be playing on the bigger MCG. Still, it's
hard to go past another strong, choking performance from the favourites.
Bet 1 unit on StK -18.5
Geelong vs Collingwood
Either Team under 15.5 points
1 at 3.40
-1
Pendelbury is back, maybe. Collingwood are
very well coached and seem to be able to pull something special out when
they need to. These teams have played quite a few close encounters so
bet 1 unit on Either Team under 15.5.
AFL FINALS WEEK TWO
Brisbane +26.5 vs Bulldogs
2 at 1.91
-2
Bulldogs vs Brisbane over 183.5
1 at 1.90
-1
A minor change for the Dogs, coming off a
loss, while Brisbane may still be playing selection games with injury
question marks over a few players. The Bulldogs have had the ascendancy
in recent games, particularly with an emphatic win at the Gabba in Round
20. Brisbane are the big underdog, despite their goal-kicking power. The
Dogs will want to come back hard after last week's disappointment. This
should be a closer encounter than the line says, and a high-scoring one.
Adelaide -7.5 vs Collingwood
1 at 1.93
-1
Adelaide over 39.5 vs Collingwood
1 at 5.00
-1
To add injury to insult, Collingwood have
four players unavailable. The big story is Pendelbury, and the loss of
Fraser which will help Adelaide's fast running game. Adelaide's 3 losses
in the last 10 rounds were against top teams, so this will be a test of
whether they just enjoy beating up on weak teams, or are a genuine
contender. Adelaide has shortened from 1.80 early in the week to 1.68 on
the news of the Magpies injuries.
AFL FINALS WEEK ONE
Adelaide vs Essendon
NO PLAY
Essendon have been hit hard by the
suspension of key players, and their ins are only there because of the
suspensions. While Adelaide are missing van Berlo and Bock, they are
still in superb form, and playing at home. Either Essendon will put up a
good fight, or get totally blown away. NO PLAY.
Geelong vs W. Bulldogs
Either Team under 15.5 points
2 at 3.25
+4.5
Bulldogs are the form team going into the
finals and are bolstered by the return of Griffen and Hudson. They will
be keen to avenge their huge loss against the Cats last year in the
finals. Geelong have been hit hard by injuries in recent weeks, and
while they are nearly full strength, there may be some injury hangovers.
That said, after dropping back from favourites for the flag, they will
be keen to send a message that they are genuine flag contenders. This
should be a tight battle, so bet 2 units on Either Team under 15.5
Brisbane -15.5 vs Carlton
2 at 2.90
-2
Carlton get back the players who were
disciplined last week, but there are some questions over Brisbane’s
selection and recent injuries, so there may be some late changes there.
Carlton surprised Brisbane at the Gabba last time, and will certainly
fancy themselves up there again, and Voss is yet to beat Ratten in three
meetings. Brisbane will be better prepared to crank up the intensity
this time, so bet 2 units on Brisbane by more than 15.5.
St Kilda -7.5 vs Collingwood
2 at 1.93
+1.86
Collingwood are looking very good coming
into the finals, and are at full strength, and StK are also able to put
their best team on the field. There are certainly some questions about
the Saints after their performance over the final three rounds; a little
birdie told me it was a very deliberate training regime that would get
them peaking at the finals. They have only played once at the MCG this
year, so the venue may give the ‘Pies an advantage. However, I think we
will see StK back to their ruthless best, so bet 2 units on StK -7.5
(BEST BET)
AFL ROUND TWENTY-TWO
Richmond +27.5 vs West Coast
2 at 1.92
-2
Cousins makes his return to play at
Subiaco against his old team, a few Richmond players may be playing for
their careers, and they will miss Newman and Thursfield. For the Eagles,
this is a farewell game for Fletcher. Assuming Freo don't beat Geelong,
if Richmond wins this, they move down a draft pick from 3 to 4. They do
play well at Subiaco and this is a big line, so bet 2 units on Rich
+27.5
Geelong vs Fremantle
NO PLAY
Geelong get back Ottens and a few others
for a run before the real stuff starts. In theory, this should be a run
in the (Kardinia) park for Geelong. While they have enjoyed quite a few
huge wins at home this season, their motivation to go hard may be
waning, and the weather conditions will be far from perfect. NO PLAY
Essendon OVER 39.5 vs Hawthorn
1 at 6.80
-1
This is a huge game. After Buddy was
rubbed out for a fair bump on super star Cuz, Hawthorn are left severely
lacking in goal kicking ability. Essendon were disappointing last week,
but have not performed well at Subiaco in recent years, so their loss
was not a huge shock. I think the Bombers will run away with a huge win,
so as a long shot, bet 1 unit on Essendon by more than 39.5 points
Carlton vs Adelaide
Either Team under 15.5 points
2 at 3.15
-2
Carlton are ahead of Adelaide by just
0.9%. If Carlton win, they lock in 5th and a "home" final against either
Essendon or Hawthorn (home is not so meaningful); but if they lose, they
could drop to 7th and play Adelaide again at AAMI next week, so they are
definitely motivated. If Adelaide win, they get a home final next week,
which will help them significantly. Carlton will miss the crumbing of
Betts and Garlett, and Adelaide have a couple of good ins. This should
be a tight struggle, so bet 2 units on Either Team < 15.5
Sydney vs Brisbane
Either Team under 15.5 points
2 at 3.15
+4.3
Brisbane have been inconsistent in
recent weeks, and the season may be taking its toll. They will miss
Bradshaw and Merrett. A win will push them to 5th or 6th, and give them
a home final, which will make a huge difference to their campaign. They
have done reasonably well at the SCG, but Sydney would love to play
spoilers, especially as they farewell some club favourites. Bet 2 units
on Either Team < 15.5 (BEST BET)
Port Adelaide vs Nth Melbourne
NO PLAY
After last week’s gallant effort, Port
farewell Burgoyne and Lade at home, while giant-killers North have done
quite well at AAMI, and have matched up well against Port. There is very
little in this for either team and the conditions may lead to a wet
slog, so NO PLAY.
Melbourne vs St Kilda
NO PLAY
Now this is a really huge game! My source
tells me StK have faded in the last two weeks because of a special
training regime that prepares them to peak during the finals. This is
the first time they are playing at the MCG this year, which is quite
staggering. If Melbourne win this, they lose a priority pick. The line
is 50.5 which in a game this meaningless is very hard to call. NO PLAY
Collingwood vs W Bulldogs
Either Team under 15.5 points
2 at 3.30
-2
This is an interesting one. There don't
appear to be any selection changes. If WB win by enough (about 4 goals),
they go up to 3rd and play Geelong instead of the Saints, but frankly
either of these teams will fancy themselves a chance against St Kilda in
the opening round of finals. This will probably be a close one, so bet 2
units on Either Team < 15.5
2009 RECORD
ROUND
RESULT
STAKES
ROI
BEST BET
FINALS 4
+2.15
1
215%
N/A
FINALS 3
-2.00
2
-100%
N/A
FINALS 2
-5.00
5
-100%
N/A
FINALS 1
+4.36
6
73%
22
-2.70
9
-30%
21
+3.20
9
36%
20
-1.24
9
-14%
19
+0.58
9
6%
18
-4.24
10
-42%
17
+1.55
8
19%
16
+0.34
10
3%
15
-0.30
8
-4%
14
+1.55
8
19%
13
+2.60
9
29%
12
+5.45
8
68%
11
-6.05
8
-76%
10
+1.76
6
29%
9
+2.54
9
28%
8
+1.67
8
21%
7
-6.00
6
-100%
6
-0.18
4
-5%
5
-0.02
4
0%
N/A
4
+1.80
8
23%
3
-2.12
6
-35%
N/A
2
+0.62
8
8%
1
-2.18
6
-36%
TOTAL
-1.86 units
184
-1%
67%
PAST
RECORD
ROUND
RESULT
STAKES
ROI
BEST BET
2008
+25.31 units
169
15%
70%
2007
+54.74 units
246.5
22%
82%
RECORD
Click
here
to view our guru's full record since 2007.
2010 U.S. MASTERS
Tiger Woods 3.50
Phil Mickelson 6.00
P Harrington 13.00
Lee Westwood 17.00
Rory Mcilroy 17.00
Geoff Ogilvy 19.00
Steve Stricker 19.00
Retief Goosen 21.00
Paul Casey 21.00
Sergio Garcia 26.00
Jim Furyk 26.00
Ernie Els 29.00
H Stenson 29.00
+2.15
-1
RECORD
