WEEKLY AFL PICKS .. with OnThePunt's Aussie
Rules Guru
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AFL ROUND TWENTY-THREE
Adelaide -18.5 v Richmond
3 at 1.92
-3
Two teams finishing the season with a bit
of a rush meet here in what should be an interesting clash. Adelaide
under Bickley look like a finals side the shackles have been taken off.
They're playing their football with a lot more freedom and gusto the
Walker/Tippett combination up forward - as dangerous as any forward line
in the competition. Richmond's strength is their midfield but I believe
Adelaide match up quite well with them here. Historically, Adelaide hold
a strong edge over the Tigers winning 8 of their last 10 matches plus
winning the last 5 between the two at AMMI Stadium by an average of 40
points. Adelaide's late season surge to continue - Play Adelaide -18.5
points for 3 units.
Ok this will most likely make Port
competertive agian me tipping against them !! Make no mistake Essendon
will not be treating this game lightly - they must win here to secure
the finals spot. If they get on top early expect them to go on with the
job because if cards fall their way there is a chance they could get a
home final. Port Adelaide have been completely uncompetitive in recent
weeks which makes you wonder that there must be some big problems behind
closed doors, as on paper this side should should be performing better
that what they are. I can only see one result here - one team playing
for their lives against a team playing like they don't care. Essendon by
plenty. Play Essendon -68.5 points for 4 Units
(BEST BET)
AFL ROUND TWENTY-TWO
Adelaide -31.5 v Gold Coast
3 at 1.92
+2.76
After a decent first year, the Gold Coast
are beginning to look like a tired group in the last few weeks and
Mckenna is really turning the side over week in week out. Adelaide on
the other hand, appear to be a new side under the guidance of Bickley he
definitely has them playing with more freedom. They look fresh and
certainly look like a side to keep an eye on come season 2012. They will
be stronger this week with bookends Tippet and Rutten back and on what
they have shown the last three weeks they should be to strong for the
tiring Gold Coast. Play Adel -31.5 points for 3 units.
Sydney v St Kilda
Either Team Under 15.5 pts
3 at 2.90
+5.7
A shocker from the Swans last week. Whilst
their not a great side, very rarely do you see them play as poorly as
they were last week. I'm sure we will see a massive improvement in their
performance this week. St Kilda are getting better every week and did
well last week against the Pies. This game has massive ramifications for
both sides so I'm expecting a dog fight and a battle that will go down
to the wire. Play the Tri-Bet either Team Under 15.5 points for 3 Units.
Port Adel. +35.5 v Bulldogs
3 at 1.85
-3
Why oh Why? I'm asking myself already. Port
have cost me plenty in season 2011 but I'm going again. No doubt they
have been nothing short of disgraceful the last two weeks against
(Collingwood and Hawthorn) but on paper they really appear to be getting
their best team back together with Brogan back. Now we need to see if
any sprit exists within this group. Hard to see the motivation for the
Dogs this week. It's been a messy week with Eade's departure and he was
well liked by the player group and with Williams only taking the
Caretaker role on Thursday, surley they will not be fully focused this
week. Play Port +35.5 points for 3 Units.
AFL ROUND TWENTY-ONE
Port Adel +80.5 v Hawthorn
3 at 1.85
-3
A dogged win by the Hawks last week in
pretty average conditions in Tassie. Only a six day turn around from
that match - luckily they only have Port to contend with. Port had a
blackout last week at the hands of a merciless Collingwood and the
changes have been rung at the selection table, with eight moves in all.
Some of their better players have been brought back including Chaplin
and Carlie which will stiffen up their defence and Schulz will give them
a focal point. The Hawks should win and win well but on back of the back
of a massive slog last week and Ports strong additions a 13 goal start
looks too high. Play Port +79.5 points for 3 Units.
Fremantle +17.5 v Carlton
3 at 1.92
-3
A better performance from Fremantle last
week against the Saints until the last quarter when the Saints ran over
the top. Carlton are playing well and did a number on a insipid
Melbourne last week. Captain Judd is flying and apparently has the
Brownlow in the bag. Fremantle have had the better of Carlton in recent
clashes at Subiaco winning 4 of the last 5. This is D-Day for Fremantle
- if they want to play a part in the finals series this season they must
win. They have brought Sandilands back in, whether he is ready to go
remains to be seen. Still, I'm expecting a huge effort from Fremantle
here and the line has come up around 8-9 points higher than I thought it
would be. Play Fremantle +17.5 points for 3 Units.
Essendon -4.5 v Bulldogs
3 at 1.91
+2.73
Essendon fell over the line in one of the
best matches of the season last week - in the end you could say some
what luckily with Sydney's inaccurate kicking in the last quarter. The
Bulldogs, off the bye should be fresh but to me they will not be able to
apply the same pressure on Essendon that Sydney was able to last week.
Both teams are fairly open and attacking sides and that should suit the
Bombers. They are slowly getting back a number of key players and
earlier in the season they torched the Bulldogs by nine goals at this
same venue. Essendon will be looking to shore up their final 8 spot and
if on song the should have the Dogs covered. Play Essendon -4.5 points
for 3 Units.
The Demons are coming of the week from
hell. It was was a deplorable loss to the Cats, still this season they
always seem to respond to a bad loss. Whether they're capable after what
Geelong did to them remains to be seen but the line looks like it might
have over-reacted somewhat. Losing Jarmar hurts but Martin has proved a
find in the ruck so they should be ok there. Scully is back along with
Davey and also remember Moloney took no part in last weeks game as he
sat crook on the bench for the whole match. They will also be
comfortable being back at their home ground the MCG where clearly their
best results have come this season. The Blues are travelling nicely but
were made to work last week by the Roo's - they should get the win here
but surely Melbourne will be going hell for leather here which should
give them a decent shot at covering. Play Melbourne +42.0 points for 3
Units.
Essendon to beat Sydney
3 at 2.02
+3.06
Terrific effort in the first half from
Essendon last week as they exposed Collingwood with their run. But not
for the first time this season, injuries ruined there day with only 17
fit players by the end of the game, making it impossible to stay with
Collingwood. But they would be glad Watson got a game under his belt and
they have some very good in's and back at Ethidad stadium where their
form is outstanding. Sydney off they bye, will be fresh and ready to
make there final assault on another finals campaign. It makes for an
intriguing match up here - Essendon's run vs. Sydney defence pressure.
Essendon was able to cut though Collingwood early last week and remember
they did beat Geelong at this venue only a few weeks ago. I reckon they
have set themselves for this one and with finals spot on the line I
think they will get over the line. Play Essendon 2.02 to win for 3
Units.
Port Adel. +73.5 v Collingwood
3 at 1.92
-3
Big game for the Power here as they look to
send out club legend Chad Cornes. Sending him out with a win won't
happen but the line looks massive here. Factor in some wet weather in
Adelaide this weekend and they should be in the game long enough to
cover this spread. Collingwood welcome back Thomas and Didak and one
thinks they will just be happy to get through this one - not sure the
Pie's will be busting a gut here and can see them easing to a 7-8 goal
win. Play Port +73.5 points for 3 Units.
Nth Melb +34.5 v Hawthorn
3 at 1.92
+2.76
A terrific win by the Hawks last week -
they looked as slick as we have seen in some time. The Kangaroos were
brave last week but their ball use let them down in crucial stages.
Still, they would have been pleased that they were able to compete with
a top 4 side. They venture to Tassie this week were they have enjoyed
some success winning twice in their four trips. I suspect the Hawks will
prove too strong over the four quarters but Aurora Stadium generally
provides low scoring scrappy sort of games and that should suit the
Roo's down to the ground. Play North Melbourne +34.5 points for 3 Units.
West Coast -41.5 v Richmond
3 at 1.92
+2.76
West Coast almost blew a 50pt lead against
the Dogs, but showed composure to see off the Dogs, mainly thanks to
Dean Cox. Back home, they get Kerr and Nic Nat back. The tigers have
really hit a hurdle late in the season after some promising early season
form. The loss of Captain Newman is big as he is so creative off the
back flank and his leadership will be missed. They can take comfort from
the fact that they have won 3 of their last 5 trips to Subiaco. Still,
they have lost their last 5 games this season by an average of around 50
points. It's hard to see the young Tigers compete for the four quarters
and I can see the Eagles running over the top of them here as they aim
for a top four spot. Play West Coast -41.5 points for 3 Units.
AFL ROUND NINETEEN
St Kilda -40.5 v Gold Coast
3 at 1.92
-3
Collingwood toyed with the Coast last week
and luckily for the Gold Coast, they well and truly took their foot of
the pedal in the second half of last weeks encounter. There is no doubt
that we are seeing some very good signs from the Coast, however they run
into a St Kilda side that appears to have turned the corner big time.
They appear back the best form of recent years and their defence
structure's look great again. Gold Coast will find it hard to put a
competitive score on the board here and with a spot in the eight well
within reach, St Kilda will be well up to put Gold Coast away here. Play
St Kilda -40.5 points for 3 Units.
Fremantle +14.5 v Hawthorn
3 at 1.92
-3
Fremantle fell at the last hurdle in what
was one of the best matches you would ever wish to see. The Dockers have
been playing some good footy but for whatever reason, seem to be a
little bit underrated by the bookies. The loss of McPharlin is a big
blow as he is maybe the in-form full back in the competition and was the
logical match up for Franklin. The Hawks themselves are ticking along
very nicely, slowly getting injured players back and I get the feeling
come September they will be Collingwood's biggest challenge. This week
however, they have come up a little short in a match that to me looks
closer to pick it than what the current market suggests. Have to go with
the value here. Play Fremantle +14.5 points for 3 Units.
AFL ROUND EIGHTEEN
Adelaide +38.5 v St Kilda
3 at 1.92
-3
The Saints appear to be back on track and
with the draw they have ahead they look set for a lower spot in the
eight come finals time. Last week, they dominated the Eagles early, but
like we have seen so many times, they fail to finish a team off when
they get on top - often going back to their slow ball movement and
allowing the Eagles back into the contest. Still they came again in the
last quarter and did what they had to do. The Crows are playing a little
better themselves, beating the Swans and were unlucky last week against
the Bombers with injuries killing their chances late in the game. They
have been allocated a pretty big start here - whilst I suspect the
Saints will get the four points, the Crows should be able to cover the
big start they have. Play Adelaide +38.5 points for 3 Units
Hawthorn -25.5 v Melbourne
3 at 1.90
+2.7
The Hawks off the bye get some big names
back in what will be an emotional day for them as they look to send off
legendary coach Alan Jeans in style. Melbourne return from their trip up
north where they had a solid but unspectacular win. Recent history
between these two have been dominated by the Hawks with them winning the
last five contests between the two by an average of just under 6 goals,
all at the MCG. I'm not sure Melbourne will be able contain Hawthorn
here in what will be a big day for the club. I also suspect Melbourne's
trip to Darwin will effect them late in this contest. Play Hawthorn
-25.5 points for 3 units.
AFL ROUND SEVENTEEN
Gold Coast +40.5 v Richmond
3 at 1.91
+2.73
The Tigers really have had a flat patch of
form which has been disappointing as Hardwick did look have have
balanced out the difference between their best and worst. There are
signs that some of the younger players are struggling and they will be
looking for a lift from their bigger name players. Luckily for them,
they have the Gold Coast this week which should see them get the four
points. However, covering the 40 odd spread is another matter. Last time
they ventured to the tropic's they got rolled by Port Adelaide. Gold
Coast have been good in patches without playing four quarters out.
Injuries to Ablett, Bock and Brown seemed to have been only minor and
all three are named this week. I think we have seen enough from Gold
Coast this year to suggest they can cover a high line against a
struggling opponent. Play Gold Coast +40.5 points for 3 Units.
Collingwood -36.5 v Carlton
3 at 1.92
-3
The Blues have stumbled somewhat over the
last month - they really were extremely disappointing last week which
may coincide with them obtaining some injuries for the first time this
year. Jamison and Waite are two tall's they just cannot afford to miss
this week and Carrazzo's absence is hurting as well - he is a vital part
of their mid-field rotations. Collingwood on the other hand, are flying.
To have a percentage of 180% this deep into the season is amazing and
they cleary are streets ahead of the rest. For mine they will be far too
strong over the four quarters for the Blues and I can see a 9-10 goal
win here. Therefore the current available lines look appealing. Play
Collingwood -36.5 points for 3 Units.
Fremantle +25.5 v Sydney
3 at 1.92
+2.76
Interesting match up here. The Swans keep
getting the job done against lesser teams whilst Fremantle have had a
horror run with injuries but are still holding on to their spot in the
eight. Last week's bye might have been a blessing for the Dockers as
they have some good players back in this week and looking at their
injury list now, Sandlands and Mundy look to be the only major outs at
the moment. Fremantle almost seem to have been written off to be a
finals contender this year. They do have a tough run home but
considering their problems this season, to be where they are has been a
solid effort and if they get back to full strength they will be a wild
card late in the season. For mine, the Swans are not a four goal better
side than the Dockers and I sense this go will go down to the wire as
both teams will be desperate to lock in their spots in the eight. Play
Fremantle +25.5 points for 3 Units.
AFL ROUND SIXTEEN
Brisbane +39.5 v Hawthorn
3 at 1.92
-3
Hawthorn had a bit of a reality check last
week against Collingwood, but I don't think they would have been overly
disappointed. With so many big outs it had to be expected and if they
get some players back on board they will give the Pies a run for their
money come September. As for this week, their injuries problems get no
better, losing Bateman while still missing a ton of others and Franklin
has to be a doubt with his ankle. Brisbane got a win up over Port in a
fairly scrappy match and whilst they have their injury problems it's no
where near the extent that Hawthorn have. These home games in Tassie for
Hawthorn generally bring lower scoring games and with some average
weather forecast, I think that they will just be pleased to get the four
points on the board. The line does look too big here considering the
Hawks problems. Play Brisbane +39.5 points for 3 units.
Sydney -35.5 v Gold Coast
3 at 1.93
+2.79
Again the Coast were competitive last week
but failed to run out the four quarters. It does look to be a case of
the kids struggling late in the season. Gary Ablett has been amazing but
he is getting little help at the moment. The Swans have lost their last
three and will be desperate to get back on track. They have some very
good in's this week that really strengthen their side up. They have
shown this year that they put away these lower ranked sides and I'm
expecting that this week. Play Sydney -35.5 points for 3 units.
Essendon -11.5 v Richmond
3 at 1.91
+2.73
An amazing turn around in form from the
Bombers last week - they again showed that at Etihad Stadium then can
compete with any team. However this week they're back at the MCG where
their recent record has not been great. Richmond does have a recent good
record over the Bombers, but I like Essendon this week. I believe last
weeks win will be wasted if they don't win here and I expect them to be
well up for this one. Richmond are beginning to look like a tired team
and are having massive issues with their ruck division. They are
slaughtered every week in the ruck contests and are in desperate need of
decent big men. And to make matters worse, their ruckman Browne is out
injured, leaving no specialist ruckman in their team. Vickery has been
named to play there but that robs them of a second forward who has been
playing well. I expect Hille and Ryder to dominant around the ground and
give their players plenty of first usage of the ball. Play Essendon
-11.5 points for 3 units.
AFL ROUND FIFTEEN
Carlton -24.5 v Richmond
3 at 1.92
+2.76
Richmond fought out an entertaining contest
with Melbourne. They have had a decent season and they look like they
could well be playing finals within a few years. This week however, I think
they're up against it. Carlton coming off there first loss in a while,
will be keen to get back on the winners board. Jamison is a loss for
their defensive unit, but they welcome back Waite who can fill the void.
The Blues all season have put away these sort of middle of the road
sides and they do have a strong record against the Tigers in recent
times. Play Carlton -24.5 points for 3 Units
Collingwood -22.5 v Hawthorn
3 at 1.90
+2.7
An interesting contest this promises to be.
Collingwood off the bye, got over the Swans despite some horrendous
kicking for goal. Swan looks refreshed and they finally get Jolly back
on board. A great effort from the Hawks to be where they are with all
their injuries. It will be fascinating to see how their short kicking
holds up against Collingwood's pressure. Whilst they get Buddy back, to
me the losses of Sewell, Rioli and Lewis are too much on top of the
players that are already missing. I think Collingwood will run over the
top of the depleted Hawks. Play Collingwood -22.5 points for 3 units
AFL ROUND FOURTEEN
Hawthorn v Essendon
NO PLAY
There is plenty of money floating around
for the Bombers against the ‘Buddyless ‘Hawks. This looks a really tough
game to get your head around. Hawthorn, despite their injuries are
managing to roll along nicely. The loss of Buddy really hurts as he has
an outstanding record against Essendon - but looking through their side,
there is still plenty of talent. An improved effort from Essendon last
week but inaccurate kicking and injuries cost them. Their record at the
MCG is a concern but I guess with all of Hawthorns out's they will
consider themselves a decent chance. No Play.
Gold Coast v W Bulldogs
NO PLAY
The Coast get their two best kids back in
Smith and Swallow. They were ok last week but as we have seen all year
they were not able to run the match out. The Dogs got over Adelaide in a
very average match you would think they will get over the line here but
market does look around the mark. No Play.
Melbourne to beat Richmond
3 at 1.97
+2.91
Really interesting matchup. The Tigers got
over a hard working Brisbane late, whilst Melbourne flogged a depleted
Fremantle outfit. For mine, Melbourne's best is just ahead of the
Tigers. Jarmar back is huge for Melbourne and to be able to ease him in
on the back of Stefan Martin's form is a big bonus. Don't underestimate
the loss of Jake king for Richmond - he has been a regular goal kicker
and his presence will be missed. In a tough call I'm going to play
Melbourne here off the back of a win - a dangerous move!! Play Melbourne
to win for 3 Units
Sydney v Collingwood
NO PLAY
Amazingly, this will be the first time the
Pies have travelled since Round 15 last season, and it’s a trip that is
not unfamiliar to them. Off the bye, they welcome back Swan and Thomas.
Sydney, whilst being solid this year just can’t go against the top four
sides, and it should be no different here. The line is around the mark
so, No Play.
Brisbane have a decent record at Subiaco
and their recent record against the Dockers is ok winning three of the
last five. But this is not the same Brisbane team - they have for most
the year been competitive but have been cruelled by injuries and it only
gets worse this week with Clark, Banfiled and Drummond again all out -
just too many good players missing from their best line up makes this a
very tough assignment. Fremantle were very poor last week but back at
home they are a different team and they are beginning to regain some
good players with the main man Sandilands back on board. At home when
they get a sniff they’re very hard to stop and I just can’t see how
Brisbane will be able to hold them this week. There is some rain around
but still the minus does look a tad low. Play -32.5 points for 3 Units
Geelong v Adelaide
NO PLAY
A lot of changes to the Geelong side and
against an opponent that was in any sort of decent form they could have
been in for a struggle. Adelaide are not one of those teams however. It
has been a horrible year for the Crows - their game plan looks outdated
and trying to get any sort of confidence back playing in Geelong looks
too much. Even though their opponent's have some injury concerns, the
market looks around the mark. No Play.
No doubt the Blues are flying, they are
playing with great confidence and really all their top-liners are in
great form. They have been the talk of the town last week - will the
attention go to their heads?? West Coast have the game and man power to
give Carlton a huge run for their money here. Their big forwards can
trouble a smallish Carlton defence, and if Cox and Nic-Nat can control
the ruck they should be provided with plenty of opportunities. I do
suspect that Carlton might be slightly comfortable where they are at the
moment and West Coast are desperate for a big scalp in Melbourne. Close
to five goal start looks appealing. Play west Coast +28.5 points for 3
Units
Port Adelaide to bt Nth Melbourne
3 at 2.66
-3
Port were good last week in an entertaining
match against West Coast, whilst North got over the top of Essendon. No
doubt there has been big improvement in North's game and Brad Scott
really looks to be a terrific coach. I do however think they have come
up far too short here. Port are getting back to their best team on the
park. We have seen glimpse's this season that when on song they go okay.
I don't think they much more than a 2.20/2.25 shot so the 2.70 odd looks
appealing. Play Port Adelaide to win for 3 Units
AFL ROUND THIRTEEN
Adelaide +27.5 v W Bulldogs
3 at 1.92
-3
Where do we start with this one? Both teams
are in shocking form - you sense the Dogs are going slightly better but
they come up extremely short considering their recent form. They do get
back Cooney but are still missing bookends Lake and Hall. The Crows have
named Tippett but there is still a doubt about him playing. With both
teams struggling I think the Dogs have come up too short. I would have
thought the line would be closer to 15 or 16 here therefore the Crows
look a little value. Play Adelaide +27.5 points for 3 Units
Hawthorn v Gold Coast
NO PLAY
This is probably just the game Hawthorn
need with their injuries concerns. Gold Coast are missing a couple of
young guns in Zac Smith and David Swallow. Hawthorn will win - whether
they cover the line is the interest but I will leave this one alone. No
Play.
Essendon v Nth Melbourne
NO PLAY
Essendon will be glad to be at Etihad
Stadium where they clearly pay their best football. Whether they can
just the flick switch is the question. North are playing some good
football lately and will relish the chance to get a victory over a top
eight side. They are slowly getting their best side on the park and some
people are starting to talk them up as a final 8 side. I'm not sure and
I’m not sure about this game either the market does look right. No Play.
Brisbane v Richmond
NO PLAY
Brisbane seem to be on struggle street
again. After a couple of good wins they have been further hampered by
the loss of Adcock who has been having a terrific year. With Merret gone
as well, their defence really does look very ordinary. Jack Reiwoldt
could be in for a big night. The Tigers have had a tough week playing in
the wet in Sydney then having to catch a bus home and then prepare to
fly to Brisbane. Still, I think they will be good enough to get over the
top of Brisbane. But again, the market is around the mark. No Play.
St Kilda v Geelong
NO PLAY
The Saints are slowly starting to play some
decent football again will get a decent idea of where they are after
this match. Montanga has been named but talk is he msy miss again. The
Cats got over the top of the Hawks in another classic. The loss of
Selwood is massive but they have so much class through their midfield
that they should be able to adjust. I'm tempted with the Saints here but
will leave it. No Play.
Melbourne to beat Fremantle
4 at 1.84
+3.36
Melbourne let a lot of people down
last week in their loss to Collingwood, but that was the exact problem -
they were playing Collingwood who may well be the best team we have seen
for many years. Expect Melbourne to be a lot more competitive this week.
They enjoy playing at the MCG and they welcome back a couple tough nuts
in Petterd and Garland. On their form this year, they are due for an "up
week". Fremantle have been solid all season but have been further
cruelled by injuries. Mundy is a massive loss and losing Ballanytne's
presence up forward is a huge blow. With a host of other starting 22
players missing they really should struggle this week. Add in the fact
that they have only had 1 win at the MCG in their last 10 starts,
everything points to a Melbourne victory. Play Melbourne to win for 4
Units (BEST BET)
Carlton v Sydney
NO PLAY
The Blues are certainly the flavour of the
month at the moment. They have had a very favourable draw, but you can
only beat what's in front of you and their doing it very easily at the
moment. Judd and Murphy look unstoppable in the midfield. Sydney have
had a couple good weeks but a question mark remains over their ability
against the better sides. You would think that they will try to slow the
Blues down here and that does look to be their best hope. No Play.
West Coast v Port Adelaide
NO PLAY
West Coast put away Adelaide with little
fuss last week with a brilliant display from Daniel Kerr. Port off the
bye get a couple decent players back and with a chance of some rain
around do look some chance to cover a pretty big line. But it's a risky
play as West Coast could quite easily win by 10-12 goals if switched on.
I'll let it go. No Play.
AFL ROUND TWELVE
St Kilda -11.5 v Bulldogs
3 at 1.94
+2.82
Two teams that were expected to be certain
finalists play off where a loss to either side could well spell the end
to their season. For mine, the Saints have shown some signs of
improvement over the last month, whilst the Dogs appear to be at their
lowest ebb for a long time. The loss of Montanga is a big blow for the
Saints as his form has been terrific. Still the Dogs making six changes
suggests Rodney Eade is at his wits end trying to get this team up and
running. Cooney back in helps but his form has been average at best.
Their spine really does not look the same without Hall and Lake and with
St Kilda winning their last five over the Dogs and improved form I think
they can get the job done here and set their sights for a final eight
spot. Play St Kilda -11.5 points for 3 Units
Adelaide v West Coast
NO PLAY
Adelaide are playing as poorly as we have
ever seen. The competitive edge which they have been renowned for is
lacking, but at times this season we have seen what there are capable of
if up for the challenge. West Coast, after a terrific start to the
season do seem a little tired and only just held of an impressive Gold
Coast. At the start of the season there was no way you could have had
West Coast a 10 point favourite against the Crows in Adelaide but the
market does look right and whilst the plus is somewhat tempting, I can't
back Adelaide in their current state. No Play.
Gold Coast v North Melbourne
NO PLAY
Fascinating match up here. Both teams
appear to be on an upward spiral with their form. Gold Coast are
improving every week and the big challenge this week is how they respond
from the long trip back from Perth. North Melbourne comprehensively got
over the line against Adelaide and with Firrito and Bastinac back in
plus Harvey breaking the record for most games played by a North player
suggests they will be hard to beat. There could be some poor weather
around the Gold Coast this week which makes it hard to jump on with any
conviction. No Play.
Geelong v Hawthorn
Either Team under 15.5 points
3 at 3.30
+6.9
Maybe the best match up in the competition.
These two never seem to fail to entertain in their recent history, with
the Cats holding the recent edge by narrow margins. All week the talk
has been about Franklin's availability and there is still talk that he
will miss despite being named but looking at Hawthorn's emergencies he
looks to be a certain starter. Both teams are travelling well, I am
expecting this one to be close like the recent history suggests. We will
play the tri bet on this game again like earlier in the season. Play
either team under 15.5 3.30 Sportingbet 3 units.
Carlton v Brisbane
NO PLAY
The Blues are really making the most out of
what is turning out to be a great draw and this appears another certain
four points. They have lost Waite but that is balanced off by Brisbane
losing Merrett. Kreuzer back in will give the team a huge lift and you
would expect them to have little trouble with the Lions here. Brisbane
put in their worst effort for the season after two good wins and I
expect them to be a lot more competitive this week but the Blues will
have too much class. No Play.
Richmond +23.5 v Sydney
3 at 1.99
+2.97
An outstanding first half from the Swans
last week - they smashed the Lions in a brilliant exhibition of what
they now call burst football. It really was the first time this season
we have seen the Swans play in this manner. Richmond coming of the bye
will be looking to get back on track after a poor loss to the Power in
Darwin. Their recent record at the SCG has been poor but Hardwick has
the team playing with a lot more grunt than we have seen from them in
recent years and after maybe getting ahead of themselves against Port
Adelaide I reckon he will have them switched on for this one. Despite
Sydney’s terrific showing last week they will find the going a lot
tougher this week and the Tigers look like value at the line to me. Play
Richmond +23.5 for 3 Units
Essendon to beat Fremantle
3 at 2.16
-3
The Dockers were good for three quarters
last week before a shocking drop late against the Hawks. They are in a
rut at the moment and it is understandable with their injuries and the
form of Pavlich is a massive concern you would expect him to be better
this week. The Bombers after a couple bad losses will welcome back
Hurley, Welsh and of course Watson. This will make a huge difference to
them. Their record in Perth has been less than impressive but I think a
trip away is just what they need and with some stars back on board I
reckon they get over the top of a injury depleted Fremantle. Play
Essendon to win for 3 Units
Collingwood -28.5 v Melbourne
3 at 1.92
+2.76
These fought out a couple crackers
last year and the betting this week suggests punters are thinking this
will be close. Of course Collingwood are missing some big guns in Swan
and Thomas. The latter will be a massive loss as his form has been
outstanding. Swan on the other hand has been struggling the last month
or so. Let’s not forget Melbourne are still missing the likes of Jarmar,
Davey and the reliable Garland down back. I may be wrong but for mine
the market adjusted to Collingwood's outs when it opened and it has only
dropped since Collingwood's great strength has been bringing players in
and play the role the team requires they have the best depth in the
league. A under five goal start looks appealing. Play Collingwood -28.5
points for 3 Units
AFL ROUND ELEVEN
Melbourne v Essendon
NO PLAY
Melbourne last week produced what can only
be described as a horrendous brand of football against Carlton and they
have coped it in the media all week. Having Scully and Trengrove back in
will make them more competitive. Essendon off the bye are still missing
Watson which hurt them massively against the Tigers. Looks like a bit of
rain is predicted for Melbourne this weekend and this can only help they
Demons cause. I'm expecting them to have a huge crack here early but
whether they can sustain it for four quarters will be the big question.
No Play.
Geelong v Bulldogs
NO PLAY
Geelong after a slow first half last week
put Gold Coast away with little fuss in the second half and are now back
at Skilled Stadium. They just don't lose with an average winning margin
of around nine goals in their last ten matches here. Expect them to put
the Dogs away. The Bulldogs tried hard last week but are lacking
confidence and going to down to Geelong will not help regain it. No
Play.
West Coast v Gold Coast
NO PLAY
West Coast's loss to Collingwood was not as
bad as the final 50 point margin suggests. They were in the game for a
long time but failed to capitalize on the scoring shots they had. Gold
Coast showed last week just how good they are going to be in a couple of
years. They are playing in quarter bursts but the young bodies can’t see
out the four quarters. As the line suggests they’re in for a tough day
on Saturday but line is high enough. No Play.
Brisbane to beat Sydney
3 at 1.95
-3
Brisbane go in unchanged after putting
Adelaide away last week. They have been mostly competitive all season
and with Brown back on board they’re starting to play with some real
confidence and include the form of Black, Clarke and Ash Mcgrath
suggests they will take some beating this week. The Swans somehow fell
over the line last week. Some poor kicking and disputable umpiring
decisions went their way and they got out with a one point victory over
the Roo's. They do hold a good recent record over the Lions but with
Mumford and Jack still missing I think the Lions will be able to get
over the line and the pick it market represents value to me. Play
Brisbane to win for 3 Units.
Collingwood v St Kilda
NO PLAY
Collingwood was well up for the challenge
last week and after a bit of a dog fight they were able to put West
Coast away. St Kilda have got back on track the last couple weeks and it
was a great win in Perth last week. I find it hard to see Goddard lining
up this week after his collision. The line of 30 looks tempting for
Collingwood but with some possible rain around will let it go. No Play.
Hawthorn v Fremantle
NO PLAY
Impressive win by the Hawks last week and
the final margin flattered the Bulldogs. They really appear to be
clicking into top gear and may well be Collingwood's greatest threat
come September. Fremantle’s injuries are destroying their season and the
knock on effort of the loss of Sandlands is enormous. This week none of
their star players are returning. The line is high but the Dockers have
fallen away badly a couple times this year so will leave. No Play.
Adelaide +10.5 v North Melbourne
3 at 1.92
-3
The Kangaroo's are stiff to only have the
two wins this season. Their kicking for goal has been a terrible let
down for them and despite having all they play late last week they
lacked the composure to get over the line. They have lost Furrito and
Pratt this week which will really hurt. The Adelaide Crows are becoming
the hardest team to work out. Their best has been terrific but their
worst which we saw against Brisbane is awful. Despite losing Taylor
Walker they do get Vince back in. Their two games at Ethaid this year
has seen them lose to Carlton by a kick and go toe to toe with
Collingwood for three and half quarters. I'm expecting them to rebound
from last week’s loss and go very close to getting the points here. Play
Adelaide +10.5 points for 3 Units.
Port Adelaide to beat Carlton
2 at 4.69
-2
Port Adelaide +29.5 v Carlton
3 at 1.90
-3
Nice win from Port last week. When on they
are capable of some decent football and I believe they’re a lot better
than a lot of people think. Carlton were not great last week but got
over Melbourne pretty easily in what was an awful game of football. They
have made a few changes this week, whilst Port have brought back Ebert
and Surjan which I think are very good inclusions. A wet and wild day is
forecast in Adelaide for Sunday - this along with the confidence of last
week’s win should keep Port in this for a long time. Play Port +29.5
points for 3 Units and to win for 2 units.
AFL ROUND TEN
Carlton v Melbourne
NO PLAY
A great effort from Carlton last week, they
really should have won with Warnock missing a sitter at the death. The
Demons themselves were fairly brave considering their massive injury
problems and a couple more have been added to the list this week. This
has been factored into the price and it looks around the mark. No Play.
Kangaroos to beat Sydney
3 at 2.10
-3
North failed to finish off the lions last
week despite being on top for long periods of the game. They have been
improving in the last few weeks after a slow start to the season and
enjoy playing at Etihad stadium. Sydney have been a bit all over the
place this season and to me they do not seem to have the some grunt they
did under Paul Roos. Losing Mumford is a big loss and I can see the
Kangaroos being in this game for a long time to me this is a close to
pick it match so the Kangaroos look like a bit of value at their current
price. Play Kangaroos for 3 units.
Fremantle v St Kilda
NO PLAY
Considering the injury problems the Dockers
have to deal with, the win/loss record they have is a great effort. But
the one player they could not afford to lose was Sandilands as he is the
most dominant big man in the game and will surely be missed. St Kilda
would be pleased with the improved performances from their big name
players last week and they do enjoy a decent record in Perth. The market
reacted accordingly to Sandilands absence so I will leave. No Play.
Gold Coast v Geelong
NO PLAY
The first home game at their very plush new
stadium adorned with Italian leather boundary seats! The Coast prior to
the bye looked to be playing some okay football in 1 or 2 quarter
patches but this looks to hard. The undefeated Cats are travelling along
nicely. They have rested some key players here but should be too good.
The line looks around the mark so I will leave but will look forward to
Ablett battling his old team mates. No Play.
Richmond v Port Adelaide
NO PLAY
The Tigers are finally emerging out of the
wilderness and what a great thing it is for football. They make their
first journey to Darwin for a proper season game against the horribly
out of form Power. To me the line is a tad on the high side but Port are
just not able to run out four quarters and do get run over a lot late in
games. I'm going to leave. No Play.
Adelaide v Brisbane
NO PLAY
How do we judge Adelaide on last week for
three quarters? They looked like a top-four side, yet the last 20
minutes they looked like witches hats. This week they face the Lions
with Brown back on board and McGrath returning will only make them
stronger. Still there are a lot of holes for the Lions to cover around
the ground and it’s hard to see them beating the Crows. The line does
look right however. No play.
West Coast +35.5 v Coll'wood
3 at 1.85
-3
Collingwood v - Maybe the most stunning 20
minutes of football I have ever seen from Collingwood last week. But
while praising their last quarter, for the rest of the match they did
look a tad jaded. Missing big men Jolly and Brown hurts them as neither
of these two are back this week. West Coast were brilliant last week in
their dismantling job on the Dog. They are clearly the most improved
side in the business and look very solid all across the ground. Whilst
I'm not sure they can beat the Pies this week with Collingwood's injury
problems and talk that Swan is carrying an injury, I'm expecting the
Eagles to be competitive enough to cover the line. Play West Coast +34.5
for 3 Units.
Bulldogs +22.5 v Hawthorn
3 at 1.92
-3
There can only be one way to go for the
Dogs after last week and that is up. They will enjoy being back at
Ethiad Stadium were they play their best football and surely their
players will be throwing everything into this match. The inclusion of
Hall will straighten them up as well. The Hawks are travelling very
nicely. It was a great win in Sydney last week and Franklin is starting
to look in 2008 form and will not have to contend with Lake this week
who has had the wood on him recently. I'm expecting the Hawks to win but
also expecting a vastly improved effort from the Dogs after last week.
Will have a nibble on them at the line in a market that might have
slightly overreacted to their huge loss. Play Bulldogs +22.5 for 3
Units.
AFL ROUND NINE
Geelong v Carlton
NO PLAY
A great win by the Cats last week in what
was a gruelling contest. One would have thought they could be in line
for a let down this week but with the tragic news during the week of a
club legend's death expect them to be up once again. The Blues off the
bye will be out to prove that they belong in the upper echelon of the
ladder. The market does look around the mark so, No Play.
St Kilda v Melbourne
NO PLAY
The Saints looked back to their best at
quarter time only to suffer what truly was an abysmal collapse. The team
appears completely lacking any confidence and things need to turn around
in a hurry if they’re to go anywhere this year. Melbourne as well
started in a blaze of glory last week only to be overrun. Very hard to
have a bet in this one - the Saints are going terrible and the Demons
have a horrific record at Ethiad Stadium. I think there are better games
to bet on this weekend. No Play.
Port Adelaide v Fremantle
NO PLAY
Port Adelaide not for the first time this
season dropped off last week for another very poor loss. Their effort in
the last quarter was very ordinary. Fremantle are suffering plenty of
injuries and were not able to hold off a rampaging West Coast last week.
They do get Ballantyne back which will help up forward, and they don't
fear travelling to Aami Stadium. Fremantle should get home but neither
team are going great at the minute so will leave - No Play
Brisbane to beat North Melbourne
2 at 2.00
+2
Brisbane again were competitive last week
but again the poor skills let them down at crucial times. Of course they
welcome back Brown this week who will give them a massive lift just with
his presence back in the team. North were very good last week after a
poor start. Their record at the Gabba is very poor but to be fair, a lot
of the losses were against very good Brisbane teams. I'm expecting
Brisbane to go very close this week they were going to be a best bet but
losing McGrath and Drummond were huge blows. Despite getting Brown back
a bit of rain is predicted for Brisbane on Saturday which should keep
this tight and the Lions might be worth a small play still for an
interest - Play Brisbane 2 Units at 2.00.
Richmond +18.5 v Essendon
3 at 1.80
+2.4
Big injuries for the Bombers - the loss of
Watson is big as he has had an outstanding year. Hurley is still out and
the loss of underrated Hocking hurts as well. They have brought some
good players in however. The Tigers were ok last week - in a way they
look a little like Essendon of 2010, a very good attacking side but
really need to improve the defensive side of their game. They do however
seem to match up well with the Bombers winning 7 of the last 10 between
the two and with the Bombers looking somewhat jaded at the moment expect
the Tigers to push them all the way here. Play Richmond 3 Units +18.5 at
1.80.
Collingwood v Adelaide
NO PLAY
Collingwood will be keen to atone for last
week's lost and have regained some good players. I thought Adelaide was
not overly impressive against the GC last week and will really need to
be at their best this week to stay close. The lines in excess of 50 look
tempting but the Crows are too unreliable for me. No Play.
Sydney -2.5 v Hawthorn
3 at 1.90
-3
Comfortable win by the Swans last week over
a very poor Port Adelaide, but you can only beat what's in front of you
and they did it well. Hawthorn's win was one of the best we have seen
this season to be two men down and close to 6 goals down early was a
terrific win regardless of where St kilda are at the moment. The trip to
Sydney is not one they have enjoyed, only winning once in their last 10
tries at the SCG. Despite the effort of last week they look up against
it this week and the smaller size of the SCG does not suit their game
style. To me, the Swans look decent value this week - Play Sydney -2.5
at 1.90 for 3 Units.
West Coast -4.5 v Bulldogs
3 at 1.92
+2.76
A huge effort from West Coast last
week to overcome the loss Kerr and Emebly just before kick off and then
perform as they did just showed how much this team has improved. Their
forward line is one of the best in the business - Kennedy is in
outstanding touch. The Dogs got back on track last week with a
comprehensive win in a game that suited their style perfectly however
there is no way they will be afforded the freedom that they were given
last week. West Coast have shown that their defensive pressure is up
there with the best in the competition. Despite the Dogs good in's this
week, I don't think they will all play and West Coast really should win
this by 2-3 goals. Play West Coast -4.5 1.92 for 3 Units
(BEST BET)
AFL ROUND EIGHT
Geelong v Collingwood
Either Team under 15.5 points
2 at 3.35
+4.7
What a great way to start round eight off
with what is undoubtedly the most anticipated match of the season. I
think it will live up to its billing. The Pies off the bye appear to
finally be having some injury concerns with Jolly still missing and talk
Maxwell will miss, although his form has not been great. Whilst the Cats
welcome back Stevie. J and Captain Ling, I think the Cats will hold
their own in the midfield battle and their defence has been outstanding
all season. To me their concern is up forward for them while they have
some of the best crumbing forwards in the business I think they will
need 4-5 goals out of Pods and Hawkins to win. That said, I think this
will be close the whole night. Play 2 units either Team under 15.5
points
North Melbourne v Melbourne
NO PLAY
The Demons answered their critics last week
by destroying the Crows, but as Dean Bailey said, their true test is how
they respond this week. The game not being at the MCG won't help them,
plus the loss of Jarmar is massive as his form was outstanding. They
have a horrible record at Ethiad Stadium winning only one of their last
ten matches there. The Kangaroos will view this as very winnable and
they have been well supported in the early betting this week. But for me
their form is not that great and I thought they were very poor last week
- to tough call this one for me will pass - No Play
Adelaide v Gold Coast
NO PLAY
Where do we start with Adelaide? One of the
worst losses in the clubs history last week - they were awful and some
serious question need to be asked about Neil Craig as a coach. Gold
Coast were terrific last week - the pressure they applied to Brisbane
all over the ground was outstanding but as we saw after their win
against Port there is every chance of having a letdown this week being
the young side they are. I think Crows will cover here but they’re to
inconsistent for me to be backing. No Play
Brisbane v Essendon
NO PLAY
Huge pressure this week is being applied to
Voss and some of very questionable coaching tactics he used last week in
the loss to Gold Coast. That said, apart from last week, their form has
not been the worst. They desperately need Brown back which should be
next week. The Bombers were good again last week in what was a cracking
game against West Coast. Their interstate record is well documented and
they will not be taking this match easily. Hird is desperate in improve
their travelling record and on form it’s hard not to see them winning
but the line looks around the mark so will pass. - No Play
Port Adel +37.5 v Sydney
3 at 1.92
-3
Sydney v The Swans scrapped and fought last
week to get over the line against the Dogs. Their form has been a little
bit erratic they don't seem to be able to blow sides away but always
remain competitive. Port let us down late last week it what was a cruel
loss at the line betting. They were great for three quarters - losing
Rodan and some questionable umpiring decisions (Luke Hodge's mark in the
goal square) cost us dearly. That said, I'm willing to give them a
another go this week with some very good In's, I think that they can be
competitive here and worth an interest and what looks a big line. Play
Port Adelaide +37.5 points for 3 units.
St Kilda +20.5 v Hawthorn
3 at 1.90
-3
What do we make of the Hawks there
sitting 4-2, but very hard to get a read on their form. As mentioned
last week, their best is very good but they tend to drop off for long
periods. They would have been hoping to have Rioli back so that hurts
them. St Kilda are slowly looking to me like they’re getting back to
playing the football we know they can play. Reiwoldt's 2nd half was
terrific last week - if only he could kick straight!! Losing Montanga
hurts but it’s hard to see them getting blown away this week and with a
wet weekend forecast for Melbourne, I think that this one will go down
to the wire. Play St Kilda +20.5 points for 3 units
(BEST BET)
Bulldogs v Richmond
NO PLAY
Again the Dogs were disappointing last
week. Injuries are hurting them and they seem unable to cover the loss
of key players, in particular Hall and Higgins. Hargrave and Addison
back will help this week. The Tigers are flying and it would be great
for footy if they keep winning. Recent history between these two has
been dominated by the Dogs but this one looks like it will go down to
the wire. Hard game to call will leave - No Play
Fremantle v West Coast
NO PLAY
Fremantle were poor again at the MCG.
Despite being on top early against the Tigers, they dropped off badly.
Back at Subiaco they are a different side. West Coast have improved out
of sight and it’s great to see Daniel Kerr getting back to his best as
he is an outstanding footballer. This one will be a cracker and it’s
impossible to split the two as the market suggests. No Play
AFL ROUND SEVEN
Port Adel. +28.5 v Hawthorn
3 at 1.92
-3
Port are coming off an awful
loss against North Melbourne and been copping it all week. They do look
a lot stronger this week with some very good inclusions. The Hawks are
off the bye and are missing some decent players, none more important
than Rioli. The Hawks have been okay this year but their problem is that
there is too much difference between their best and worst, and they
don't seem able to seem to string fourth quarters together. From what we
have seen from Port recently, the Hawks should win here but I think this
will go down to the wire. Port have shown that when they’re up for the
contest they go ok. I'm expecting them to be up for this one. - Play
Port Adelaide +28.5 points for 3 units. (BEST BET)
Bulldogs v Sydney
NO PLAY
Very tough contest here which makes it hard
to get a read on either side at the moment. The Bulldogs will be
shattered to get so close to Collingwood last week only to get blown
away late, while the Swans blew a three-goal lead in the wet at their
home ground to get rolled by Carlton. Recent history between the two
suggests that the Dogs will win, but I'm not so sure. I think it's a
genuine pick it match - half keen on the Swans but will leave - No play.
Nth Melbourne +50.5 v Geelong
3 at 1.80
-3
The Cats at their favourite stomping ground
have proved near impossible to beat in recent times and that won’t
change this weekend. But we saw an improved effort from North Melbourne
last week and no changes at the selection table is a good sign. I think
the Roos will equate themselves okay here and with a bit of rain about
the plus does look a tad on the big side. North Melbourne to be in the
game long enough to cover the line for me - Play +50.5 points for 3
units.
Richmond v Fremantle
NO PLAY
The game I'm most looking forward to this
weekend. I love what Damian Hardwick is doing at Punt Road. Finally,
after years in the wilderness there does appear to be some light at the
end of the tunnel and in Dustin Martin they have got a player who could
be rated as good as Judd in years to come. Fremantle are off the bye.
They were really starting to put some good form together - they still
have a long injury list and to be where they are is a good effort. They
need to improve their poor record at the MCG though. Not sure they will
this week but very hard to pick this one so I will leave - No Play.
Brisbane v Gold Coast
NO PLAY
The first Q clash has it's been called.
Amazingly, we see a side that has not won a game running around at
1.10ish, still it's hard to argue with the market. Brisbane have shown
some good signs in recent weeks and will be too strong for the Coast.
Drummond back is great news for them and with Brown back in a couple
weeks don't be surprised to see them win a few games soon. As for here,
the number looks around the mark - No Play.
Essendon v West Coast
NO PLAY
Right now in my opinion, Essendon are the
third best side in the comp. Last week was a training drill but they
have managed solid football every week this season. They love Etihad
Stadium and should get over the line here. Still, West Coast will be no
walk over - they will give the Bombers a run for their money here. Kerr
is getting better every week, Le Cras slotted back in well last week and
Cox is having a massive season. I'm expecting a high quality match up
here with Essendon winning by around what the line is. No Play.
Melbourne v Adelaide
NO PLAY
Melbourne are currently under massive
pressure with no one more than Dean Bailey feeling the heat. They have
not advanced as most people thought they would have. Adelaide
themselves, similar to Hawthorn can’t put four quarters together at the
moment but I believe quite simply they are a better team than Melbourne.
The Demons will come out very hard here but if the Crows can keep them
under control early I believe that they can get the win here - still it
would be a risky play so I will leave - No Play.
St Kilda +16.5 v Carlton
3 at 1.94
+2.82
Carlton was brilliant last week. led by the
outstanding Judd to win in the wet trailing the Swans at the SCG. It was
one of their better wins in recent times. One concern for them was that
Kieran Jack did have a good tag going on Judd and his injury cost the
Swans massively, so they Saints will need to clamp down on the great
man. I liked what I saw from the Saints last week despite the loss there
were some good signs and this really is season on the line stuff this
week. They have won 9 of their last 10 against the Blues (Carlton did
win their match last year by 10 goals). Still that I aside, this team is
better than what they’re showing and I reckon they will go close on
Monday night football. Play St Kilda +16.5 points.
AFL ROUND SIX
West Coast -7.5 v Melbourne
3 at 1.92
+2.76
Both teams are coming of the bye here so
they should be pretty fresh for what looks an interesting matchup. Both
team’s appear to be big improvers this season. Melbourne go in unchanged
from their big win against the Gold Coast while West Coast welcome back
Le Cras a lot sooner than expected. The Demons have a horrific record in
Perth losing their last 10 matches. In saying that, West Coast's recent
record at Subiaco has not been much better only winning one of their
last ten home games. Still, I fancy the Coast here - I've been impressed
with their season thus far and with Le Cras back, I think they will get
over the top of the Demons in this one. Play West Coast -7.5 points for
3 units.
Sydney -3.5 v Carlton
3 at 1.90
-3
Sydney come off the bye after their loss to
Geelong in what was a tough contest. Carlton just got over the line
against Adelaide last week, but to be fair, they did have 11 more
scoring shots and maybe should have won a little easier than they did.
Carlton do appear to like an open running stlye of game and I don't
think that they will get a chance at the SCG to do that. The Swans have
added a couple of experienced hard bodies in Kennelly and Moore back
into their side. I think they sould be able to shut down the Blues here
so the minus -3.5 looks a little light to me and worth a bet - play
Sydney -3.5 points.
AFL ROUND FIVE
Brisbane v St Kilda
NO PLAY
A tough match to kick off Round Five. I
have to think that St Kilda will respond to their poor start to the
season. I thought Brisbane played well against Melbourne and really blew
a great chance for a win. But I can't get a good read on this match, so
it's a no play.
Port Adelaide v Gold Coast
NO PLAY
It was a somewhat improved effort from Gold
Coast last week despite their last quarter capitulation. The Power
overan Adelaide in an impressive win. I marked the line here mid-sixites
so will have to make it no play.
Adelaide +26.5 v Carlton
3 at 1.90
+2.7
Carlton got very lucky to get the two
points last week with Essendon having the injury problems that they did,
they really should have overun the Bombers. I must admit, I'm not
convinced with Carlton and think they have come up far too short here.
Adelaide were dissapointing last week but they have shown in patches
that their best is very good. I'm expecting them to rebound from a week
of heavy critisism and push Carlton all the way here. The line looks
good value - play Adelaide +26.5 points for 3 units. (BEST BET)
Richmond to beat North Melb
3 at 2.05
+3.15
The Kangaroos pushed Fremantle last week
but to me they're lacking a lot of fundmental skills and could possibly
be a tad underdone from a injury riddled pre-season. The Tigers have had
a very tough draw so far this year, meeting Carlton, St Kilda, Hawthorn
and Collingwood, but they have showed promising signs in all those
matches. I think that they will be considering themselves a great chance
here especially with Kangaroos coming off another Perth trip. Add
McGuane and Rance back to their backline and I think that they will get
the job done. Play Richmond for 3 units.
Essendon +28.5 v Collingwood
2 at 1.90
-2
The true test of where the Bombers are at
awaits them this week. They were brilliant last week to get the draw
from the position they were in injury wise. I love Hille back in the
side as he is massiveily important to them and I dont see any problems
with them playing the 3 big men. Collingwood have been fantastic again
this season without truly having been tested. I'm expecting them to be
on Anzac Day and close to a five-goal start for Essendon does look worth
a little nibble. Play Essendon +28.5 points for 2 units.
Fremantle v Western Bulldogs
NO PLAY
A solid win from Fremantle last week. They
are starting to show signs of some decent form despite their early
season injury problems. The Bulldogs are a bit of an unknown factor
after their poor loss to Essendon. They have had two pretty soft matches
but I think that they will enjoy the open spaces of Subiaco. I'm half
tempted to pull the trigger on them but reckon the market is probably
around they mark. With the Bulldogs only slight value I will leave it -
no play.
Hawthorn v Geelong
Either Team under 15.5 points
2 at 3.00
-2
Finally, what looks to be the standout
match of the round. What a rich recent history these two share - the
Cats have surpised a lot of people with their start to the year but it
should not be too big a surpise as they ooze class all over the field
and agian will be geniune contenders. The Hawks on the other hand are a
little harder to read. Their top-six is as good as any team in the
competion but their big concern is in defence as they do look small down
back and if they do not cut supply into the oppistions forward line they
will get hurt. History suggests this one will going down to the
wire with 7 of their last 8 matches being decided by 11 points or less.
Play the tri-bet either team under 15 points for 2 units.
AFL ROUND FOUR
Collingwood v Richmond
NO PLAY
The Tigers got blown away early last week
but held their own after half time. There has definitely been
improvement in Richmond this year, but the bad news for them this week
is that they face Collingwood. The Magpies have lost Jolly but you would
think that they will get the job done here. I do think the line is a tad
high but will pass. No Play.
Hawthorn v West Coast
NO PLAY
A couple of decent in’s for the Hawks in
Mitchell and Rioli but the loss of Stratton down back will hurt as he is
an impressive young defender. The Eagles have had a nice start to the
season. They lacked composure late against the Swans and it cost them a
perfect start to the season. The line looks around the mark here – if
there is rain around in Tassie on Saturday the plus might be worth an
interest but I will pass for now. No Play.
Essendon to beat Carlton
3 at 1.93
-0.1
What a performance it was from the Bombers
last week. St Kilda tried to take them on with an attacking game style
and got blown off the park. Carlton fought on quite well last week but
were outclassed by the Pies. Recent history between these two has been
dominated by Essendon with them winning 4 of the last 5 matches, the
only exception Carlton’s 76pt win in Round 19 last year when Essendon
was in a massive form slump. These two generally have high scoring
matches and both like to attack, which to me will suit Essendon
perfectly. Essendon look good value here - Play Essendon to win for 3
Units.
Sydney v Geelong
NO PLAY
A tricky match up here. Sydney are a very
tough nut to crack at the SCG as they love the confined spaces and their
form this year has been very good. The Cats have had an excellent start
to the season and have shown that they’re up for the fight when matches
get tough as I expect this match to be. Was going to play the Swans
here, but some good in’s for Geelong has swayed me. No play.
Port Adel. +18.5 v Adelaide
3 at 1.80
+2.4
Nothing like a Showdown to bring the best
out of these two sides. Port Adelaide have reacted to their thumping
last week by dropping K.Cornes and Pearce but are welcoming back some
good players. Adelaide were very disappointing last week and their
injury toll has only got worse - losing Stevens and Davis hurts them
down back. I think this one is going to be close, therefore Port at the
line looks value to me. Play Port Adelaide +17.5 or better points for 3
Units.
Gold Coast v Melbourne
NO PLAY
Gold Coast showed some slight improvement
last week in the second half but the Dogs did take the foot of the pedal
somewhat. Plenty of talk today that Ablett will miss after apparently
spraining his ankle on a stair case. He has not trained all week but the
club is saying he will play. Melbourne gave away a five goal start last
week only to overrun the Lions in the second half. They are struggling
to put four quarters together but you would think they will have the
Sun’s measure here. There is quite a bit of rain forecast for Brisbane
this weekend so I will let this one pass. No Play.
Fremantle v North Melbourne
NO PLAY
An impressive effort from the Dockers last
week, pity it needed Pavlich’s record breaking game to be up and about.
If they could produce that form of a consistent basis, they would be top
4 material. North Melbourne coming off their bye and hammering to
Collingwood will be desperate to atone for that loss. I think they will
be fairly competitive this week but I will let this one go also. No
Play.
AFL ROUND THREE
Collingwood v Carlton
NO PLAY
The Magpies are being talked up like the Grand Final was done and dusted
already after wins over Port Adelaide and North Melbourne who were
coming off a six day break from Perth. But they have done what was
expected off them. The Blues had some nice match practice last week and
one would expect them to get a reality check here. I think they will be
in the game for a while but expect Collingwood to win by around what the
line is. No Play.
Bulldogs v Gold Coast
NO PLAY
The Dogs welcome back Lake and Gilbee which will give them a lot more
drive for the back half. Gold Coast were awful last week. I was
expecting something better than what we saw and on the back of that
performance it’s impossible to see anything other than the Dogs handing
out a flogging here. The line however is very high and I think there are
better betting games this week. No play.
Adelaide -11.5 v Fremantle
3 at 1.90
-3
Adelaide copped some injuries from their Round One win over Hawthorn but
do have some good in's. Their pre-season was good and the win over the
Hawks was very impressive. Fremantle did shoot themselves in the foot
last week but really should have beaten the Cats with the quality of
players that were missing from the Geelong side. To me they are a long
way off last year’s form. The Crows look tremendous value here, the only
concern being how they react off the bye but my numbers have Adelaide
winning by around four goals so I’ve got to play the line here. Play
Adelaide -11.5 points for 3 units (BEST BET)
Richmond v Hawthorn
NO PLAY
Richmond have been very good for first couple weeks of the season.
They blew a good chance to beat the Blues in Round One and looked very
stiff with the draw last week. Mc Guane is a huge out as the Hawthorn
forwards are going to be very difficult to contain. That said, I still
think the Tigers can turn this into a dog fight. The Hawks are still
showing signs of being up and down side - basically this season we have
seen two good quarters of football in the two matches they have played.
Still, I have concerns over their consistency. Line looks around the
mark so, No play.
West Coast v Sydney
NO PLAY
West Coast have had a great start to the season and I don't think it
is completely unexpected. They basically have recruits in Cox, Glass and
Kerr who all missed most of last year. I don't like the loss of Beau
Waters - he was fantastic last week and will be missed. The Swans did
what they do best last week, bringing the game back to how they want it
played. Whilst very lucky with some poor umpiring late in the game they
managed to hold on. I’m leaning to the Swans here but will leave for
now. No Play.
Melbourne -30.5 v Brisbane
2 at 1.92
-2
Melbourne have been hammered in the media this week in what is the
normal over reaction. They’re a good team as we saw in the first half
and I like what we saw in round one against the Swans. They will be up
and about this week to respond to last week’s loss and I don't think
they will have to many problems. Brisbane look like a shell of a side at
the moment and their forward lines appears non-existent. There is some
chance of rain in Melbourne on Sunday but still think the minus is worth
a go. Play Melbourne -30.5 1.92 for 2 Units
Geelong v Port Adelaide
NO PLAY
Geelong are showing that there is plenty of fight left in them. They
return to their stomping ground this week where they undoubtedly have
the biggest home ground advantage in the AFL - 23 wins on the trot by an
average margin of around 10 goals. Port Adelaide was actually the last
team to beat the Cats at Skilled Park but I can't see it happening this
week. They do have some good inclusions but figure that they will be
outclassed. Line is high enough though. No Play.
Essendon to bt St Kilda
3 at 2.05
+3.15
Certainly hard to get a read on the Saints at the moment. One tight
loss and a draw and they do be appearing to be a lacking a certain
something at the moment. Studying their team, there appears to be quite
a few pretty average players and they’re not getting the best out of
there great players. Hayes is a massive loss and the loss of Baker will
hurt as well. Essendon copped a reality check last week, they had the
better of the Swans for most the day and really should have put them
away earlier. To me Essendon are simply playing the better football at
the moment and recent history between these two suggests the Bombers
will be too slick here for the Saint. Despite it being Riewoldt’s 200th
I think the Bombers will be to good here. Play Essendon to win 2.05 3
Units.
AFL ROUND TWO
St Kilda v Richmond
NO PLAY
St Kilda will be looking to play some
better football than they produced last week - in what was an ugly
contest against the Cats. Thought Richmond were impressive in patches
against the Blues last week but lack the composure reqired to get over
the line. Odds look right in this match.
Collingwood v Nth Melbourne
NO PLAY
Impressive effort from the Pies last week.
Port Adelaide really looked in control in the 3rd quarter getting within
3 goals of Collingwood only to still lose by 75 pts. North had a tough
contest in Perth in the heat, but will relish playing the Pies as the
home team and wearing the home guernsey. I’m expecting them to be
competitive this week but can see the effects on last week’s game
catching up with them late in this match. Markets looks around the mark
so no play.
Port Adelaide v West Coast
NO PLAY
Interesting match up here - Port will be a
lot better than we saw last week and I believe WCE will be an improved
side this season. The LeCras injury is a shocker for the Eagles but Kerr
and Naitanui back in gives the side a lot better look on paper and if
Cox can continue in the same vain we saw last week they will go close
here. But again market is around where I marked it so will pass – No
Play.
Gold Coast to lead at Quarter Time vs
Carlton
2 at 3.35
-2
Well the time has finally arrived for the
Gold Coast. Judging on what we saw in the pre-season, they should at the
very least be competitive this year. You would think Carlton’s
experience and bigger bodies will get them home in the end – but I’m
expecting the Coast to get out the blocks quickly here so might go a bit
of a different play - Gold Coast to lead at quarter time 3.35 for 2
Units.
Fremantle v Geelong
NO PLAY
The Dockers fell over the line last week
thanks to Brisbane injuries and some woeful umpiring late in the match.
Freo do look to be a few weeks of there best form, the Cats were going
to be a Best Bet for me here but today’s news where Selwood, Mooney and
Lonergan are all late withdraws along with Scarlett who was already
missing has put me off somewhat. I believe they still represent some
value here purely based on the fact they are a better team than the
Dockers but I will stay out due to the changes in the Geelong side. No
Play
Bulldogs v Brisbane
NO PLAY
Quite simply, the Dogs were awful last
week. It was a disgraceful performance to get their season under way and
they will be keen to atone this week against a depleted Brisbane outfit.
I think they will as the Bulldogs do have a history of putting ordinary
sides away whilst struggling against the elite teams. The season could
not have got off to a worse start for the Lions. Losing Brown is a
disaster and where they are going to score goals from I’m not sure. Like
Geelong, the Dogs were going to be a play but they have not brought back
Lake, Gilbee and Hargrave and that deprives them massive drive from the
back line. I think the Dogs still win and win well whether the cover the
high line I’m not sure so no play.
Sydney v Essendon
NO PLAY
The Bombers are certainly the flavour of
the month. They could not have been more impressive in their demolition
of the Dogs last week. But we need to be cautious this week all of
Essendon’s impressive form this year including NAB Cup has been
displayed at Eithad Stadium, they will need to prove themselves on the
road, where their recent history is very poor. The Swans should have got
the job last week, they outplayed Melbourne for most of the day and poor
kicking for goal cost them dearly. I'm tempted with the Swans here as I
think they can strangle Essendon’s free flowing running game but again
will leave as market looks right.
Hawthorn -16.5 v Melbourne
3 at 1.92
+2.76
The Hawks certainly appeared to have
altered there game plan over the summer - they seemed intent on playing
on at all costs against Adelaide last week and looked very slick in the
1st half only to be over run by a very strong Adelaide team. Some good
inclusions for the Hawks this week with Hodge, Ellis and Guerra back on
board, the Demons fought on quite well last week and to get a draw was a
nice result for them. I do think however they will be outclassed this
week by a Hawthorn team that despite going down last week look like they
will be genuine contenders this season. Play Hawks -16.5 for 3 Units.
AFL ROUND ONE
Carlton vs Richmond
NO PLAY
Let me kick off by saying it's a pleasure
to be back on deck at OTP. I hope we can generate some decent profits
through the season. History says that the Blues win this one pretty
easily. Earlier in the week I was going to make the minus a play, but
with predicted rain and the uncertainty of Round One, I'll pass on this
game.
Geelong to beat St Kilda
3 at 2.29
+3.87
Interesting match here between two modern
day rivals with the honours being evenly spread over recent times. St
Kilda have come off a troublesome pre-season and will be keen to prove
their doubters wrong. The Cats will appreciate a new voice with Chris
Scott now calling the shots. St Kilda lose their big man in Gardiner and
Koschitzke and goal sneak Schneider while the Cats are missing some key
players, none more important than Chapman. Interestingly though he has
been named as an emergency. I believe the Cats are far from a spent
force and look value here – play Cats to win for 3 units.
Collingwood vs Port Adelaide
NO PLAY
The Pies look up and about early and with
Malthouse still calling the shots. I think it’s very doubtful will see
the Pies drop off this year. In saying that, the start looks pretty high
here. Port are missing some good players though, so will let this one
go.
Adelaide vs Hawthorn
NO PLAY
Maybe the best game of the round - both
teams have had impressive pre-seasons. The Hawks do have a very poor
record at AAMI Stadium but they have been very much hyped this
pre-season – leaning towards the Crows but it watch them run around this
week – No Play
Brisbane to beat Fremantle
3 at 2.20
-3
Brisbane had a horror early pre-season but
in recent weeks have had a couple wins and look close to full strength.
They will be desperate to get Drummond back into their team and how
Brown performs will be interesting on a limited pre-season. Fremantle
have had a very poor pre-season and think they are a few weeks off
hitting last year’s form. With Freo's long injury list Brisbane look
good value here. Play Brisbane 2.20 or better 3 Units
Essendon v Bulldogs
NO PLAY
Great pre-season from the Bombers and now
for the real thing. I’m pretty sure they will remain competitive
throughout the season. This market looks around the mark - both teams
are missing some important players so will let this one pass.
Melbourne v Sydney
NO PLAY
Big move for the Swans in the last 24 hours
and somewhat understandable with the Dee’s missing some good players and
also dropping their last couple of pre-season matches. But they did
towel up the Swans here last year and the Sydney backline does look
somewhat depleted – hard to call this one. No Play
West Coast -6.5 v Nth Melb
3 at 2.00
-3
West Coat had a nice run in the NAB Cup and
despite plenty of skill errors they do look a lot better than last year
and with a bit more composure could have been in the NAB Cup final. They
seem to be fairly fit and if Kerr can get back to somewhere near his
best, they will trouble few sides this year. The Kangaroos have big
injury problems already and with temperate of 35 degrees predicted for
Perth on Sunday I think they are going to be up against here. Play West
Coast -6.5 points
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FUTURES
GOLF
2012 US MASTERS
Mickelson, Phil 6.00
Mcilroy, Rory 7.00
Woods, Tiger 8.50
Westwood, Lee 21.00
Donald, Luke 21.00
Watney, Nick 26.00
Kaymer, Martin 34.00
Johnson, Dustin 34.00
Scott, Adam 34.00
Schwartzel, C 34.00
Day, Jason 34.00
Mahan, Hunter 36.00
Garcia, Sergio 36.00
Mcdowell, Graeme 36.00
Watson, Bubba 36.00
Kim, Anthony 36.00
Ogilvy, Geoff 36.00
Fowler, Rickie 36.00
Harrington, P 41.00
Stricker, Steve 41.00
Poulter, Ian 41.00
Cabrera, Angel 41.00
Kuchar, Matt 41.00
Simpson, Webb 41.00
-3
+2.76
AUS
OPEN 2012