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Tuesday October 7, 2008 -





WEEKLY AFL PICKS .. with OnThePunt's Aussie Rules Guru
 ARCHIVE

 

AFL ROUND TWENTY-ONE
A few emails arrived to the inbox this week from some disgruntled followers of the AFL Guru. The results over the past few weeks have not pleased me either, but I doubt anyone can boast a record as good as 2007 - in particular the best bet. We all have good and bad periods and we will bounce back you can be assured of that. Just remember OnThePunt provides theses tips free of charge and most of you have enjoyed some nice returns over the period. The stock market is also taking a beating over the past few months. Hang in there we will get back on track.

Looks a bad round for betting with five matches meaning nothing for both sides. Only Collingwood v Sydney, Geelong v North Melbourne and St Kilda v Adelaide having any interest for me. The prices all look about right in these games so no bets this week we wait for a better opportunity next week.
Bulldogs vs Essendon NO PLAY
The Bulldogs have made no changes to the team that lost to Brisbane last week and they have only won one game in their last five this year so I am concerned about their form. Essendon have made five changes, all due to injury - Fletcher (groin) Dempsey (broken leg) Jetta (hip) Laycock (ankle) Hille (broken hand) and have included Bellchambers, Johnson, McVeigh, Hooker and Hocking. The Bombers are fielding their most inexperienced side of the year and I find it hard to see how they will be able to match it with the Bulldogs. The Bulldogs won the earlier game in round 4 by 30 points and I think the result here could be a blow out if the Doggies get their running game up and going earlier on the fast Telstra Dome surface. I suspect the Dogs will run away with the game and gain some confidence going into the finals series but no bet for me.
Richmond vs Fremantle NO PLAY
Not a lot of interest in this game for me either, the Tigers get back Foley for Polo. The Tigers played great last week after a couple of bad losses the previous weeks. Fremantle fell over when they were expected to win last week. The Dockers have only one win on the road this year. I just don’t think I can trust the Tigers at about 1.35 or at the line of 19.5 so no bet for me.
Port Adelaide vs Melbourne NO PLAY
Both sides made four changes. Current form is not relevant and no real interest in the game. From a betting point of view it looks impossible to bet so just don’t get involved.
Brisbane vs Carlton NO PLAY
Brisbane has included Corrie and Hanley for Begley and Proud whilst Carlton has included Bower and Houlihan for Wiggins and Saddington. Brisbane came from behind last week against the Bulldogs to record the first win in a month. Carlton is coming of a belting at the hands of the in-form North Melbourne. There has been plenty of money around for Brisbane which tells me someone is out of the Carlton team. Carlton looks over the odds but I am waiting until the final teams before I have a bet here.
Collingwood vs Sydney NO PLAY
Collingwood has included Wellingham after losing Thomas with a calf injury. Sydney lost lots of experience in dropping Ablett, Fosdike and Malceski for Barry, Jack and Veszpremi. On the back of the doubt on Thomas there was some early money around for Sydney but Collingwood has won the last five matches between the sides and Sydney’s form has been terrible. The Swans have only two wins from its past seven matches and they were against Carlton (by 2 points) and Fremantle (by 4 points). Collingwood has proven to lose when favourite and win as underdog so I have decided not to get involved either way here.
Geelong vs Kangaroos NO PLAY
Geelong has included Milburn, Chapman and Scarlett to their expanded interchange bench. North Melbourne surprised by including Mc Intosh, Lower, N Thompson and S Thompson and dropping Brown. Both teams are in great form with North Melbourne winning their last six games in a row and the Cats winning their last eleven in a row. The Cats have recorded only one loss for the year and generally belt sides but North Melbourne did beat them down at Skilled Stadium back in Round Five in 2007 and ran them to 13 points in Round Eleven earlier this year. I think Geelong can cover the line but I have to show some respect to North Melbourne’s form so no bet for me.
St. Kilda vs Adelaide NO PLAY
St Kilda surprised by naming Milne and including Birss, Allen and X Clarke to and expanded interchange bench. Adelaide included Knights, Otten and Tippet to its expanded interchange bench. Both sides have found some form over the past month with Adelaide winning its last four matches and St Kilda winning six from its last eight matches. I marked St Kilda slight favourites at home so I don’t see any value betting either side here.
West Coast vs Hawthorn NO PLAY
West Coast made four changes and Worsfold says they aren’t tanking but I find it impossible to have a bet even with Hodge (suspension) and Campbell (virus) missing for the Hawks. Don’t want to get involved either way so it might be better to go to a movie late Sunday afternoon.

 

 

AFL ROUND TWENTY
Port Adel. vs Collingwood NO PLAY
Port Adelaide included Boak, Lade and M Westhoff for Deluca, Stewart and Salter. Collingwood dropped Wellingham for O’Bree. Port has only won 1 game in its last 9 games and they have only won 2 games at AAMI for the year. They have finished for the year and are experimenting with players and not fussed whether they win or lose at this stage of the year. Collingwood bounced back last week after a horrible week to beat a disappointing St Kilda. Collingwood have not been that impressive but should be too good for Port if they want to play finals in 2008 but no bet for me.
Essendon vs Adelaide NO PLAY
Essendon has included Peverill for Magin whilst Adelaide included first gamer Dangerfield and Reilly for the injured Vince and dropped Otten. Essendon produced its worst 1st half of the past 2 months last week against West Coast but were much better in the 2nd half to go down by 10 points. Adelaide has managed to win their last 3 matches after losing its previous 5 matches this season. Adelaide won the earlier match in the year at AAMI by 5 points on a wet Friday night game. I don’t think there will be a lot in the game either way but think Adelaide deserve to be slight favourites so no bet for me.
Melbourne vs West Coast NO PLAY
All the money has been for Melbourne who is coming off a 116 belting by Geelong last week. West Coast has its 4 wins for the year and all the punters think that’s enough and want to hold onto their priority pick. Melbourne inclusions look ok with Jamar, Miller, Newton and Bell in for Dunn, White, C Johnson and Carroll. Melbourne with 2 wins on the board for 2008 by 6 points over Fremantle and by 1 point over Brisbane are the 1.67 favourite. West Coast lost Hansen and Wirrpanda to injury and included Ebert and Notte plus all of West Coast’s wins have been at Subiaco. I suspect the punters have probably got it right and Melbourne should win but no bet for me.
Brisbane vs Bulldogs NO PLAY
Brisbane included Macdonald, Moody and Copeland for Drummond, Notting and Henderson. The Western Bulldogs included Hill and Hudson for Tiller and Street. Brisbane has only one win (against West Coast) in its last 6 matches so their form is not good plus there is some doubt on Bradshaw playing. The Bulldogs have only one win from its last 3 matches so their form is no great either but they have won their last 5 games against Brisbane including the last 3 at the Gabba. Brisbane has won 7 of its 9 games at the Gabba including the last 6 in a row so hard to make a case to bet either side, so no bet for me.
Sydney vs Geelong NO PLAY
Sydney included Fosdike, Buchanan and Malceski (who replaced Barry on Friday afternoon) for Brennan, Jack and Veszpremi. The Cats made no change to the side that belted Melbourne by 116 points last week. The Swans has only won 2 of their last 6 matches and they were only by 2 points against Carlton and 4 points over Fremantle last week. The Cats have won their last 10 matches since their 86 point loss to Collingwood in round 9. In those matches the winning margin has been 59 points or more in 8 of those matches. The Cats have played at ANZ Stadium only once in 2006 for a 22 point loss to Sydney. I expect Geelong to win the game and cover the line but Sydney doesn’t get belted often in Sydney so happy to watch this game and no bet for me.
Hawthorn -30.5 vs Richmond 3 at 1.91 -3
The Tigers included Schulz, Cartledge and Connors for Pattinson (back), Brown (hip) and dropped King. The Hawks have included Osborne for Stokes. The Hawks have won 4 from its last 6 games this year and scored two big wins over the last 2 weeks. The Tigers has won 3 from its last 6 games this year but has lost their last 2 games by 63 points. The Hawks only beat the Tigers by 12 points in round 6 earlier in the year but they did have 34 shots at goal to the Tigers 19 and Buddy kicked 1 goal 7 points. The Tigers has lost the last 3 times against the Hawks with their last win back in 2005. I think the Hawks will be far too strong and expect them to run out easy winners. Bet 3 units on Hawks -30.5 or better (BEST BET)
Carlton vs Kangaroos NO PLAY
Carlton made no changes to the side that belted Port Adelaide by 66 points last week. North Melbourne lost N Thompson with an ankle injury and dropped Lower for Brown and Simpson. North Melbourne has won its last 5 matches this year and is looking to sneak into 4th spot on the ladder if the form continues. Carlton’s form is not bad with 5 wins and 4 losses from its last 9 games. Two of the losses were about 6 goals but the other two losses were by 2 points to Sydney at Telstra Dome and by 8 points to Adelaide at AAMI which you could argue are creditable losses. I think the price loos right with North Melbourne slight favourites so no bet for me.
Fremantle vs St. Kilda NO PLAY
Fremantle lost Tarrant and Carr to injury and included Farmer and Grover. The Saints lost Fiora to suspension and dropped Geary for Gardiner and R Clarke. Fremantle has hit some for late in the season when winning 3 from its last four games only losing to Sydney by 4 points last week. .Likewise St Kilda has won 5 of its last 7 matches but they have lost 2 from their last 3 matches. Fremantle has only won 5 matches from 19 matches this year but they have lost 7 matches by 9 points or less. I am a little concerned about the Saints running out the game on the big Subiaco oval but they have not been belted this year and might get to a good price by Sunday if all the favourites win. No bet at this stage.

 

AFL ROUND NINETEEN
Melbourne vs Geelong NO PLAY
Melbourne lost Davey, Bell and Garland to injury and included Carroll, Frawley and Jones. The Cats lost Milburn to suspension and left out Varcoe for Ablett and Byrnes. The Cats won the earlier clash at Skilled Stadium by 30 points after the line was set initially around 75 points. The line in this game range from 57.5 to 60.5 but the Cats have been belting sides. I think the Cats can cover the line but it looks a little risky with showers also forecast, so no bet for me.
Carlton vs Port Adelaide NO PLAY
Carlton has dropped Austin for Saddington whilst Port included some experience with P Burgoyne, Chaplin and White for Bentley, Lonie and Thurstans. Port has only won one game in their past 8 matches with the only win being against Adelaide. I think Port has packed up for the year so I expect Carlton to win this game. The Port players on the ground will be trying and the line looks right so no bet for me.
Hawthorn vs Brisbane NO PLAY
The Hawks bounced back after consecutive losses to beat Collingwood by 54 points week and made no changes for this week match. Brisbane has only won one game in its last 5 matches and that was against West Coast at the Gabba. The Lions lost Clark with a quad injury and dropped Corrie and Clouston for Henderson, Notting and Hawksley. The Hawks will be looking for a big win to celebrate Crawford’s 300th game and I don’t think the Lions are capable of spoiling the party. I suspect Brown, Black, Power and Bradshaw are carrying minor injuries and they have not been at their best in the past month. The line looks about right so no bet for me.
Collingwood vs St. Kilda NO PLAY
Collingwood lost O’Bree with a hip injury and suspended Didak and H Shaw plus dropped Lonie and Wellingham. They included two first gamers Chris Dawes and John McCarthy plus Cook, Stanley and Wakelin. The Saints lost Ball with a hamstring and included Hudghton. The Saints struggled to beat and undermanned Port last week so I’m not convinced they can beat Collingwood. Likewise the Magpies are struggling but I expect Collingwood to show something after what the club has been through during the week. No confidence in either side so no bet for me.
Fremantle +15.5 vs Sydney 2 at 1.90 +1.80
The Swans dropped Ablett, Brabazon, and White for Barry, Goodes and Moore. Fremantle lost Farmer to suspension, Mc Manus to retirement and dropped Murphy for Hayden, Browne and Campbell. The Swans have only one win from its last 5 matches but they won 8 out of the last 10 matches against Fremantle. Fremantle have not played that well at the SCG with their last win dating back to 1996. Fremantle has hit some form winning their last 3 games in a row, the three weeks before that they lost to Geelong by 74 points at Skilled Stadium (no disgrace), lost to St Kilda by 8 points at Telstra Dome and Essendon by 4 points at Subiaco. Bet 2 units on Fremantle at +14.5 or better.
Kangaroos vs Bulldogs NO PLAY
North Melbourne included Thompson, Lower and Simpson to its expanded interchange squad. The Bulldogs included Callan, Street and Ward to its expanded interchange squad. North Melbourne has won its past 4 matches this year and did beat the Bulldogs by 3 points after Brad Johnson missed a set shot after the final siren. The Bulldogs bounced back after a slow start over Sydney last week after coming off consecutive losses to Geelong and Carlton. North Melbourne seems capable of winning when we least expect them and they are some chance in this game. The Bulldogs may rest some players based on Rodney Eade’s comments earlier in the week so we need to be careful until the final teams are known. North Melbourne has won the last 4 matches between the sides and 6 out of the last 10 between the sides. I think the Bulldogs deserve to be slight favourites and that’s what the bookies came up with so no bet for me.
Adelaide vs Richmond NO PLAY
The Crows have lost two key players in Porplyzia and Knights to injury. They have included Johncock, Otten, Petrenko, Stevens, Reilly and Tippett to its expanded interchange squad. The Tigers get back N Brown, Cartledge and Tivendale to its expanded interchange squad. Adelaide has won 9 out of its last 10 games against the Tigers, but the Tigers are probably playing their best football in years so I expect them to put up a better show against an Adelaide side missing a number of their stars. The Crows have won their last 2 games in 2008 but before that they lost 5 games in a row. I expect the Crows to get up for Andrew McLeod’s 300th game but the Tigers do have some chance. I think the price looks about right so no bet for me.
Essendon -13.5 vs West Coast 3 at 1.91 -3
West Coast has only won 3 matches for the year and lost Staker and Ebert to worsen their injury crisis. West Coast has named 7 players on the interchange bench that I hardly recognise so that doesn’t fill me with any confidence. Essendon has hit some form winning 6 from its last 7 games this year. The Bombers lost Reimers with a hamstring and included Dempsey, Hocking, Lucas and Magin to its expanded interchange squad. I think both teams have different agenda’s one looking for wins and the other just ticking over. Bet 3 units on Essendon -14.5 or better (BEST BET).

 

AFL ROUND EIGHTEEN
Collingwood vs Hawthorn NO PLAY
Collingwood left out R Shaw (back), Wakelin (rested), Johnson and Wood for Fraser, Goldsack, Lonie and Toovey. The Hawks get Crawford and Dew back for the injured Osborne and they dropped Tuck. Collingwood has won 2 from its last 6 games in 2008; likewise the Hawks have only won 2 from its last 5 games. Both sides are capable of playing better it’s just a matter of knowing when to bet on them. Collingwood was in similar form earlier in the year and managed to win 4 games in a row, including the 86 point win over Geelong. The Hawks won the round 7 match against Collingwood by 65 points when Franklin and Roughead dominated. Collinwood can win but don’t have any confidence in betting either side here.
Essendon vs Melbourne NO PLAY
The Bombers have turned things around from Round 12 with 5 wins from its last 6 games. Their only loss was to the Tigers by 4 points in Round 16. The Demons have only 2 wins for the year by 1 point over Brisbane in Round 14 and Fremantle in Round 7 so I find it hard to suggest they can win here. The Bombers welcome back Lovett from a club imposed suspension for the injured Lucas. The Demons surprised by dropping Jones and Newton and lost Miller with a hamstring and included Green, Wheatley and Wonaeamirri. The Bombers have been very attacking and don’t see any reason why the game plan will change here but no bet for me.
Adelaide vs Carlton NO PLAY
The Crows included Massie for Tippett and the Blues included Armfield for Hartlett. The Crows are coming off a horror run of form with a good win of Sydney at the SCG last week. The Crows have only won one game from its last 6 games in 2008. The Blues continue to improve in 2008 with a good come from behind win against Western Bulldogs last week. I don’t have a lot of confidence in betting Adelaide at home but I thought we might have got a better price for Carlton travelling to AAMI. I think Carlton is on the up and Adelaide on the way down so if I had to bet it would be on the Blues but the price looks a bit skinny at AAMI so no bet for me.
Geelong -30.5 vs Richmond 2 at 1.92 +1.84
The Cats continue on their winning ways with an 11 point win over the Hawks last week without, Ablett, Ling, Wojcinski, Milburn and Chapman after half time. The Cats welcome back Milburn and Ling for Chapman who is injured and D Johnson. The Tigers made no changes to the side that beat Brisbane by 3 points last week. The Tigers has won 5 from its last 6 games this year. However all the wins have been against the bottom sides on the ladder the only side in the Top 8 they have beaten was Brisbane last week. Geelong has been the bench mark for the past 18 months and Richmond has only beat the Cats once in their last 11 matches so I don’t see any reason why this match will be any different. Bet 2 units on Geelong -31.5 or better. (BEST BET)
Brisbane -6.5 vs Kangaroos 2 at 1.96 -2
North Melbourne has included Brown and dropped Goldstein. The Lions have included Begely, Hooper, Clouston and Proud for Collier, Stiller, Notting and Copeland. North has won 4 from its last 5 games this year including the last 3 in a row. Brisbane has been struggling winning only one game from its last four games this year. This is the last game for North at Carrara and suspect Brisbane will be up for the game. Brisbane did win the round 7 clash at the Gabba by 31 points and I don’t see any reason why this game will be any different. Bet 2 units Brisbane -7.5 or better.
Bulldogs vs Sydney NO PLAY
The Bulldogs lost Addison with a knee injury and included Tiller, Street, Ward and Wight to its expanded interchange bench. The Swans lost Goodes and Playfair to injury and dropped O’Dwyer. The Swans have lost three out their last four games with the only win by 2 points over Carlton. The Bulldogs beat Sydney in Sydney by 18 points in round 7 and without O’Loughlin, Goodes, or Playfair and Hall out of form it’s hard to see how Sydney will be able to kick a winning score. The Bulldogs are coming off consecutive losses but one of those was against the Cats and they fell away after leading by 37 points against Carlton last week. I think the Bulldogs will win but the price and line look about right so no bet for me.
St. Kilda vs Port Adelaide NO PLAY
St Kilda has lost Hudghton to injury and dropped M Gardiner and Armitage. They have included Koschitzke, Geary, Rix, C Gardiner, Birss and Gwilt. Port Adelaide looked to have given up on the season leaving out Tredrea, Salopek and Chaplin all to injuries. They have included Farmer, Salter, Stewart, Thomson, White and Williams. Port Adelaide has won 11 out of the last 12 games against St Kilda but I don’t think that will continue here. It appears like Port got themselves up for the derby against Adelaide and now the season looks finished with players being prepared for 2009. St Kilda has won 4 out of its last 5 games but was very disappointing against West Coast last week losing by 17 points. St Kilda should win but Port has a very young squad and you can never be safe they way St Kilda play. If St Kilda play attacking football I think they can cover the line but not sure they will makes it to risky to get involved so no bet for me.
Fremantle vs West Coast NO PLAY
West Coast coming off a win against St Kilda last week included Glass, Houlihan and Davis to its expanded interchange bench. Fremantle lost Warnock with a shoulder injury and welcome back Pavlich, Browne, Hayden and Bradley to its expanded interchange bench. Fremantle is looking for three wins in a row after wins against Melbourne and Port Adelaide. West Coast is coming off a win against St Kilda last week. Fremantle has won the past two games against West Coast and will be looking for the hat trick. West Coast has been well supported early in the week but the price looks about right so no bet for me.

 

AFL ROUND SEVENTEEN
Geelong -18.5 vs Hawthorn 2 at 1.91 -2
The Hawks have included Stokes for Morton, whilst the Cats remained unchanged. The Hawks lost there 3rd game of the year last week after leading St Kilda by 6 goals midway through the match. The Cats managed to beat the Bulldogs by 61 points last week after the game was level at half time. The Cats have only lost one game for the year and after starting the season a little sluggish have hit top form over the past 6 weeks winning easily. The is a rumour going around that Sam Mitchell won’t play and there is some chance that Luke Hodge may miss due to the birth of his first child. If both these thing eventuate the Cats will shorten drastically. Bet 2 units on Geelong -19.5 or better.
Collingwood -22.5 vs Essendon 3 at 1.92 -3
Essendon surprised by only making one change with Fletcher replacing the injured Neagle. Collingwood welcomes back Davis for Goldsack. There must be some doubts about the fitness of Monfries, Welsh, Fletcher and Lucas. Collingwood will be looking to bounce back after last week’s loss to North Melbourne. Essendon have been very impressive winning 4 out of its last 5 games. Collingwood won this game in Round 6 by 73 points and don’t see why the result will be any different. Bet 3 units on Collingwood @ -23.5 or better (BEST BET).
West Coast vs St. Kilda NO PLAY
West Coast continued the revolving door with another 4 changes losing Kennedy and Glass with injuries and dropped Houlihan and Davis. They included Braun, Armstrong, Seaby and Spangher. St Kilda only made one change with M Gardiner coming in for Koschitzke who is out suspended. St Kilda has hit some form winning its past 4 games in a row after I wrote them off earlier in the year. On the other hand West Coast has been terrible all year and I don’t see any reason why the form line will change here. I expect the Saints to win easily but not prepared to play either way with the line set at 31.5
Richmond vs Brisbane NO PLAY
The Tigers lost Hughes to injury and dropped Polo but get back Richardson and Jackson. Brisbane has dropped Hooper and Harding but included Adcock and Sherman. The news early in the week that Power did not train saw Richmond price move from 1.91 into 1.67 with most bookies. The Tigers have won 4 from its last 5 games whilst the Lions have lost its last 3 games in Melbourne over the past month. The Tigers deserve to be slight favourites but I think the market may have over reacted a little and there is a good chance Power will still play. I am happy to stay out of this game until we know the final sides.
Sydney vs. Adelaide NO PLAY
The Swans lost Barry and O’Loughlin to injury and welcome back Hall and Malceski. The Crows lost Jericho to injury and dropped Moran and Johncock; they included Gill, Mackay and Porplyzia. I suspect Goodes and O’Keefe may be carrying some niggling injuries from last week but expect them to play. Adelaide have now lost there last 5 games in a row and with no Burton up forward they are lacking a key target up forward. I think this video on YouTube might help explain why we can’t bet on Adelaide, but with the Sydney outs I’m happy not to get involved in this game.
Port Adelaide vs Fremantle NO PLAY
Port finally decided to get Chad Cornes ready for next year and leave him out as he is carrying a shoulder, knee and finger injuries, they also dropped Lade and Thomson. Port included Boak, Deluca, Stewart, Thomas, Thurstans and M Westhoff to its expanded interchange bench. Fremantle lost O’Brien and Browne to injury and included Murphy, Palmer, Duffield, Bradley and Campbell to its expanded interchange bench. This game doesn’t mean much to either side so I’m not prepared to get involved either.
Melbourne vs Kangaroos NO PLAY
Melbourne lost Wheatley with a calf injury and included Carroll, Maric, Mc Donald and White to its expanded interchange bench. North Melbourne lost Ross with an ankle injury and included Sinclair, Grima, Brown and Riggio to its expanded interchange bench. Melbourne produced there best start to the season last week to lead by 34 points early in the 2nd quarter against Fremantle only to be convincingly beaten by 46 points. North Melb produced one of there best games to overrun Collingwood and win by 18 points. I expect North Melbourne to win the game but some showers forecast happy to stay out of any bets at the line.
Carlton +22.5 vs Bulldogs 1 at 1.92 +0.92
The Bulldogs are coming off there 2nd loss for the year against the all conquering Cats have included Hill, Ward and Williams to its expanded interchange squad. Likewise Carlton is coming off a 2 point loss to the Swans has included Armfield, Browne and Hampson to its expanded interchange bench. The Bulldogs deserve to be favourites but I think the game will be a lot closer than most think. The Blues have been very competitive this year with 7 wins on the board after 16 rounds. I expect the Bulldogs will bounce back but think Carlton can keep the margin under 20 points and maybe an outside chance to win the game. Bet 1 unit on Carlton @ +21.5 or better.

 

AFL ROUND SIXTEEN
Kangaroos vs Collingwood NO PLAY
North Melbourne surprised by dropping N Thompson and Grima and included Grant and Jones. Collingwood have made no changes to the side that beat Adelaide last week. North Melbourne won this game earlier in the year by 7 points after trailing early in the last quarter. Collingwood has won 6 from its last 8 games this year whereas North Melbourne has won 4 matches from its last 8 games. The Bookies have Collingwood around 1.45 and North Melb at 2.75. The Line is 15.5 which looks about right to me so no bet.
Geelong -12.5 vs Bulldogs 2 at 1.92 +1.84
The Cats have lost Ablett and Ling as expected and included Kelly and Prismall. The Dogs dropped Hill and Wight for Griffen and Welsh. This game looks like the match of the Round with 1 versus 2. The Cats have been in sensational form over the past month with an average winning margin of 84 points. The Bulldogs are travelling pretty well themselves but this is a big step up to face the Cats at Skilled Stadium. The Bulldogs have already beaten Hawthorn, Sydney and Collinwood so they have the ability to compete at the highest level. Ablett and Ling are big outs but I think the Cats have dominated the competition for the past 18 months and see no reason to change here. Bet 2 units on Cats -13.5 or better. (BEST BET)
Richmond vs Essendon NO PLAY
All the early money has been for Richmond which has seen there price shorten from 1.85 to 1.65. The move was on the back of the news that Mc Veigh would miss with a knee injury for Essendon. Lovett has also been suspended by the club and they have been replaced by Atkinson and Dyson. They are big outs for the inform Essendon who have won their past 4 games in a row, but two of those wins were against West Coast and Fremantle. Richmond's form is not bad with three wins from its past four games and they've made no changes to the side that belted West Coast last week but they are still missing Richardson. Richmond beat Essendon by 38 points when they last clashed in Round Nine. I think Richmond is short enough without Richo, but Mc Veigh and Lovett out will hurt the Bombers midfield. I’m not prepared to bet either way at the current price.
Brisbane vs West Coast NO PLAY
I think it’s impossible to get involved here from a betting prospective with West Coast possibly tanking for the rest of the year. Brisbane's form has been poor over the past month and they have key injury concerns with both Black and Brown doubtful. Brisbane's price is terribly short but not if West Coast tanking so no bet for me.
St. Kilda vs Hawthorn NO PLAY
The Saints included Fiora and Schneider for Allen and Gwilt who have been dropped. The Hawks bring back Bateman for the injured Crawford. The Saints have found some form winning their last 3 games this year but have not looked that convincing at times. Likewise the Hawks have bounced back with consecutive wins after the loss to North Melbourne 3 weeks ago. Price looks about right no bet for me.
Carlton vs Sydney NO PLAY
No major changes for either side. Sydney is coming off consecutive losses and travels back to Telstra Dome. The Swans are not in great form at the moment and Carlton look some chance in the game. The Blues have won 3 from its last 5 games in 2008 and was a chance to win both games it lost in that period. I think the price looks about right so no bet for me.
Port Adelaide vs Adelaide NO PLAY
I found this another very tough game with both sides struggling. Hard to make a case for either side based on current form. The Crows have lost Porplyzia and Burton to injury and included Jericho, Mackay, Mc Gregor, Mc Leod, Morgan and Otten to an expanded interchange bench. Port has lost White with a hamstring injury and included Lade, Salopek, Stewart and Wilson to its expanded interchange bench. The game looks too tough to pick a winner so no bet for me.
Fremantle -16.5 vs Melbourne 2 at 1.92 +1.84
Fremantle lost Solomon to suspension, Palmer to general soreness and dropped Hinkley. They included Josh Head for his first game along with Duffield, Bradley, Mc Manus, O’Brien and Murphy to its expanded bench. Melbourne lost Green with a hamstring and included Davey, Mc Donald, white and Yze to its expanded bench. I have been tipping Fremantle all year and figure if they can’t beat Melbourne and cover the line at home its time for Mark Harvey to go just like Big Brother. So bet 2 units on Fremantle -16.5 or better.

 

AFL ROUND FIFTEEN
Carlton vs St. Kilda NO PLAY
Carlton welcomes back captain Chris Judd for O’Hailpan whilst St Kilda gets back Hayes for Charlie Gardiner. St Kilda has won its last 9 games against St Kilda but we must remember Carlton was tanking in probably 6 of those games. Carlton has won 3 from its past 4 games this year. St Kilda has also hit some form with consecutive wins over the past 2 weeks. I don’t think there will be a lot in this game and the Bookies have come up with St Kilda being slight favourites, so no bet for me.
Adelaide +17.5 vs Collingwood 3 at 1.91 -3
Collingwood made no changes to the side that easily beat Sydney last week whilst Adelaide included Griffin and Campbell for the injured Reilly and dropped Gill. Collingwood broke its 2 game losing streak with an unexpected win over Sydney last week. Adelaide is on a 3 game losing streak having lost to the Hawks at AAMI by 4 points, Brisbane at the Gabba by 13 points and Geelong at AAMI by 68 points but who is not losing to Geelong in the last 2 years? I expect the Crows to bounce back and have won 5 from its last 6 games against Collingwood. I am expecting a close game and happy to bet 3 units on Adelaide @ +16.5 or better (BEST BET).
Geelong -44.5 vs Fremantle 2 at 1.92 +1.84
Geelong made no changes to its winning side whilst Fremantle made 4 changes trying to find a winning combination. The Dockers lost Bell to retirement, Hayden and Dunn to injury and dropped Peake. They included McPharlin, Michael Johnson, Farmer and Browne. The Dockers surprised The Cats at Subiaco earlier in the year but the Cats have hit some form over the past month and should easily account for the Dockers at Skilled Stadium. Bet 2 units on Geelong -45.5 or better.
Essendon vs Brisbane NO PLAY
Essendon has included Slattery and Neagle for the injured Myers and dropped Dyson. Brisbane included Johnstone, Stiller and Leuenberger for Macdonald (ankle), Polkinghorne and Sherman. Brisbane is coming off a one point to Melbourne last round and has lost consecutive games in 2008 but Essendon is tougher to beat than earlier in the year including 3 wins on the trot. I think Brisbane deserves to be favourites but the line looks about right so no bet for me.
Port Adelaide vs Kangaroos NO PLAY
Port Adelaide is going through one of its worst patches of football since joining the AFL with only one win from its last 7 games. The Power has lost Gray to injury and dropped Stewart for Chad Cornes and Surjan. North Melbourne has made 4 changes including dropping Grant (club imposed suspended), C Jones, Riggio and Obst. They have included Ross, Grima, Goldstein and McMahon. Port could not play any worse and on paper look the winner but North Melbourne has beaten the Western Bulldogs, Hawthorn and ran Geelong to 13 points over the last 6 weeks. I’m finding it hard to make a case for either side and no result would surprise me here. On that basis I don’t want to get involved in this game.
Sydney +14.5 vs Hawthorn 2 at 1.92 -2
Hawthorn has included Taylor, Tuck, Bateman, Kennedy and Sewell to its expanded squad and lost Renouf to suspension and Lewis with a quad injury. Sydney has lost Hall to suspension and included Goodes, Grundy, Schmidt and Smith to its expanded squad. Sydney has won the last 6 matches between the sides and is coming off its first lost in its last 6 matches in 2008. The Hawks are missing Dew, Crawford, and Lewis from its best side. Sydney has a great record over the Hawks and can close down a game when required. I expect Sydney to bounce back from last weeks loss and Hall out might be a blessing in disguise as they played well when he was out earlier in the year. Bet 2 units on Sydney @ +13.5 or better.
Bulldogs vs Melbourne NO PLAY
The Bulldogs have left out Griffen for family reasons and included Harbrow, Street, Wight and Ward to its expanded squad. Melbourne has lost Mc Lean for the season to injury and has dropped the suspended Davey. They have included Bell, Carroll, Morton, Newton and White to its expanded squad. The Bulldogs are flying and see no reason for it to change against Melbourne who surprised Brisbane last round. The Demons have been more competitive in the last few rounds so the line looks high at over 40 points but the Bulldogs can pile up some big scores on the fast Telstra Dome. I’m happy to stay out of this game so no bet for me.
West Coast vs Richmond NO PLAY
West Coast has dropped Staker and Graham and included Braun, B Jones, Kennedy, MacKenzie and Wirrapanda to its expanded squad. The Tigers have lost Richardson and Polak to injury and dropped Hyde. There is some doubt about Kerr playing and if this is the case I expect some support to come for the Tigers. Earlier in the year when the Tigers came to Subiaco they belted the Dockers but started around the 8.00 mark. Who would of thought that the Tigers would be starting around the 2.00 mark or odds on at Subiaco against West Coast at the start of the season? At the current odds of around 2.00 I don’t want to get involved with either side.

 

AFL ROUND FOURTEEN
Adelaide vs Geelong NO PLAY
Adelaide has included Massie and Symes for the injured McLeod and dropped Jericho. Geelong welcomes back Scarlett and Stokes for Taylor and Prismall. Adelaide is coming off consecutive losses against Hawks at AAMI and Brisbane at the Gabba last round. The Crows has won 6 from its 7 games at AAMI in 2008 with the only loss being to the Hawks in round 12. Geelong is in awesome form but this game might be a little closer than what most people think. Adelaide is hard to beat at AAMI and is well coached by Craig. Geelong has only lost 1 game for the year and will be tough to beat anywhere the way they have played over the last 2 years. I think the Bookies have got the price about right so no bet for me in this game.
Sydney vs Collingwood NO PLAY
Sydney finally lost Goodes to suspension and has included Everitt as his replacement. Collingwood has included Cloke, Davis and Wakelin for the injured Rocca and Reid plus dropped Toovey. The Swans have been in great form over the past two months and has recorded 6 wins in a row during this period. Collingwood has struggled over the past two weeks with losses to Carlton and Western Bulldogs, but before that they did win 4 games in a row. Sydney has won 16 from 23 games at ANZ Stadium but Collingwood has beaten the Swans in their last 4 matches. I expect Collingwood to be desperate to bounce back after losing its past two matches but Sydney will be tough to beat at ANZ Stadium. I don’t think there will be a lot in the game but happy no to get involved, so no bet for me.
Hawthorn vs West Coast NO PLAY
West Coast made 5 changes 3 due to injury and dropped Braun and Fletcher again. There is a rumour floating around that Braun may come in for A Selwood. The Hawks get back Croad and Crawford for Tuck and Boyle. The Hawks should have no trouble accounting for the Eagles in the match the only real interested will be by how much? The line was well supported late Thursday in from 42.5 to 45.5. The Eagles were terrible last week but they were playing the best team in the comp in Geelong. The Hawks have not been in great form over the past month but I expect them to bounce back with a big win over the Eagles but reluctant to be taking -45.5 so no bet for me.
Richmond vs Carlton NO PLAY
The Tigers included Johnson and Thursfield for McGuane and Oakley-Nicholls. Carlton included Edwards for Armfield. Chris Judd has been selected but the rumour is that he has a hairline fracture of the jaw. All the early money has been for the Tigers on the back of the Judd injury rumours and the possibility that Fevola is sore as well. I am finding it hard to make a case for either side so no bet for me here.
St. Kilda +10.0 vs Kangaroos 3 at 1.90 +2.7
North Melbourne returned to form last week with a convincing win over the Hawks. St Kilda managed to scrap home against Fremantle in an ordinary game of football where only 2 goals were scored in the last quarter. The Saints have included Koschitzke and recalled Dal Santo and Milne for the injured Hayes and they dropped McEvoy and Geary. North included Power for Lower. In North Melbourne’s other game at Carrara earlier in the year they only managed to beat West Coast by 6 points. The Saints are struggling and without Riewoldt they probably would have lost last week. I don’t think there will be a lot in the game bet 3 units on St Kilda +8.5 or better (BEST BET)
Bulldogs vs Port Adelaide NO PLAY
Mark Williams has effectively declared finals are off the agenda for 2008. Therefore we need to be careful when betting in Port Adelaide games. Maybe he will be trying out players and not too concerned with the scores. Accordingly Port made 7 changes so it’s hard to make a case for them against the Western Bulldogs who have only lost once for they year. The Dogs lost Williams to injury and dropped Ward for Tiller and Hill. I don’t want to get involved in this game.
Brisbane -27.5 vs Melbourne 2 at 1.92 -2
The Demons continue to struggle in 2008 with only one win to date. Brisbane bounced back at the Gabba with a win after a terrible performance against the Bulldogs the week before. After trailing to Adelaide for most of the night they managed to overrun the Crows in the last quarter and win by 13 points. Brisbane has included Bradshaw, Sherman, Johnstone and new boy Clouston. The Demons lost McDonald to injury and dropped Frawley. It’s hard to make a case for Melbourne in this game and I expect Brisbane to be too strong and run out easy winners. Bet 2 units on Brisbane at -27.5 or better.
Fremantle vs Essendon NO PLAY
The Dockers continue to struggle in 2008 with only 2 wins. The Bombers have managed to put back to back wins together for the first time last week. Fremantle dropped Farmer for missing a rehab session after last week’s game and lost Michael Johnson to injury. Essendon lost Slattery to injury and included a number of changes to an expanded interchange bench. With Lucas back in the team and Lloyd finding some form up the ground the Bombers have looked much better over the past few weeks. I expect the Dockers to be too strong at home but not prepared to bet at this stage.

 

AFL ROUND THIRTEEN
St. Kilda vs Fremantle NO PLAY
When it was confirmed that Koschitzke would miss again with injury on Wednesday the punters jumped on Fremantle and there price shortened from 2.25 into around 2.00. On Thursday the rumours started early that Dal Santo would be dropped saw the Fremantle shorten further to 1.85. When the official team was announced Milne was also dropped on top of injuries to Schneider and M Gardiner. The Saints have promoted rookie-listed player Robert Eddy, Jarryd Allen and ruckman Ben McEvoy for their AFL debuts along with Armitage. All bookies took the game down and the re assessed the price. When it reopened Fremantle were into 1.60 and St Kilda out to 2.35 after opening at 1.65. St Kilda is just no playing well with only 3 wins in its last 10 matches and those wins have been against Melbourne, Richmond (fell in by 3pts) and Essendon. Fremantle has only won 2 of its last 12 matches but they have been very competitive and should have won maybe 4 to 5 of those games. I think last weeks win will give the Dockers the confidence they can continue on the winning way. I had planned to tip them but all the value has now gone from the price. I think Fremantle will win but no bet for me at the current price.
Kangaroos +30.5 vs Hawthorn 2 at 1.92 +1.84
The Hawks welcome back Guerra for the injured Bateman. North Melbourne lost McIntosh and Power to injury and dropped S Thompson, Brown, Davies and Josh Smith. They have included Hansen, Watt, N Thompson, C Jones, S Grant and Obst. The Hawks continue to impress with a last minute win over the Crows at AAMI last week. The Hawks are still missing Crawford, Croad, Taylor, Bateman and Sewell from its best side. North Melbourne has lost its last 3 games and is missing McIntosh, Sinclair, Edwards from its best side. I expect the Hawks to continue on there winning way but with some rain forecast I think the Kangaroos might be able to sneak in and cover the line. Bet 2 units on Kangaroos +29.5 or better. (BEST BET)
Port Adelaide vs Richmond NO PLAY
Port Adelaide is struggling with 5 losses from its past 6 games at AAMI which highlights how bad they are travelling. Port Adelaide sits on 4 wins and 8 losses for the year but it’s interesting to note they have only beaten West Coast, St Kilda, Essendon and Fremantle. Richmond is sitting on 4 wins and a draw for the year but those wins are against the bottom teams on the ladder. The draw against the Western Bulldogs was a good result and they probably should have won. The Tigers have only won once from the last 8 games against Port Adelaide at AAMI. The Tigers can win but I think the Power will win at home. No bet for me.
Adelaide +11.5 vs Brisbane Lions 2 at 1.98 -2
Brisbane has lost Roe to injury and dropped Stiller, and Leuenberger, they have included Rischitelli, Copleland and Collier. Adelaide lost Griffin to injury plus dropped Mackay and Otten. Burton is back from suspension along with Gill and Reilly. Brisbane is coming off its worst loss of the year against the Western Bulldogs last week. The Lions has not lost 2 games in a row all year so I expect they will bounce back. Likewise Adelaide is coming off a last minute loss against the Hawks last week and has not lost consecutive games in 2008. The Crows have won its last two matches at the Gabba against Brisbane. Bet 2 units on Adelaide +11.5 or better
West Coast +30.5 vs Geelong 1 at 1.92 -1
West Coast has strengthened its side by bringing back Kerr, Braun, Fletcher, Hansen, and McKinley. The Cats continue in cruise control and made no changes to last week’s side. West Coast’s only two wins this year have been at Subiaco against Brisbane and Adelaide, but maybe should have beaten Sydney a few weeks back. The Cats fell in by a point against the Dockers on their last trip to Subiaco. West Coast is a big price but they are playing the best side in the comp in the Cats. Bet 1 unit on West Coast at +29.5 or better.
Melbourne vs Sydney NO PLAY
The Swans are flying at the moment winning the past 5 games this year. No changes at this stage but have included Brennan, Fosdike and Matthews to an expanded interchange bench. The Demons added Whelan, Valenti and Jamar to its expanded interchange bench. The bookies have posted a line between 40.5 to 42.5 but I am finding it hard to get involved either way but expect the Swans to win.
Carlton vs Essendon NO PLAY
Both sides are coming off wins last week. Carlton came from behind win to overrun the Magpies. The Bombers easily accounted for West Coast to secure their 3rd win of the year. I think Carlton should win the game but the price looks about right to me so no bet for me.
Collingwood vs Bulldogs NO PLAY
Collingwood has been hurt with injuries to Fraser, Davis and the suspension of Cloke. The Magpies have named Rocca in an expanded interchange bench but I don’t expect him to play. The Bulldogs are flying and included Harbrow, Hill and Street to an expanded interchange bench. The Bulldogs opened at 1.55 with most bookies and have been well supported on the back of the injury news to Collingwood into 1.30. The Bulldogs have only lost once this year and I don’t think an undermanned Collingwood side has much chance here.

 

AFL ROUND TWELVE
Essendon vs West Coast NO PLAY
To start Round Twelve we have a Friday night "blockbuster" at Telstra Dome between two former power houses of the competition. In 2008 they are both struggling and no chance of playing finals. Both sides will be out to gain some respects from supporters but I’m finding it difficult to make a case for either side so no bet for me.
Bulldogs vs Brisbane Lions NO PLAY
This looks to be a great game on paper with both sides in good form. The Bulldogs left out Tiller for the experienced Murphy who returns from suspension. The Lions left out Hawksley, Copeland and lost Bradshaw and Harding to injury. They have included Drummond, McGrath, Stiller and Roe. The Bulldogs have won the last four games between the two sides and return to the MCG where they beat Melbourne in Round Two. It’s only their second game at the MCG this year, whereas the Lions are playing their first in 2008. Bradshaw is a big out for Brisbane which will put more pressure on Brown in the Brisbane forward line. The Bulldogs have done nothing wrong all year and could be undefeated if Brad Johnson had kicked the goal against North Melbourne after the siren in Round 9. The Dogs should win but no bet for me here.
Fremantle to bt Kangaroos 3 at 1.81 +2.43
Well the Bookies have been cleaning up on the Dockers form this year with only 1 win from 11 games but big news during the week came from coach Mark Harvey who said "Anyone who plays us from here on in (knows) we are a dangerous side to play,'' "And when you write up and talk about Fremantle make sure that you talk about how dangerous we are. No doubt Harvey is struggling fronting up to the media on a regular basis with not a lot of wins to talk about. North Melbourne has won 7 from its last 10 games against Fremantle. North were very impressive last week losing to Geelong by 13 points. They get back Wells and J Smith for McMahon and Brown. The Dockers lost Black to suspension, McManus with a knee injury and dropped Thorton and Bradley. They have included Hayden, Murphy, Dunn and Schammer. With N Thompson and A Edwards missing with injury I assumed C Jones would be an automatic selection but he has been named as an emergency. So don’t be surprised if there is a late change and he comes into the team. I still think Fremantle can win the game - bet 3 units at 1.75 or better. (BEST BET)
Sydney -23.0 vs St. Kilda 2 at 1.95 +1.90
Sydney came from nowhere to get over the Eagles last week and welcome back Barry Hall for Ed Barlow. St Kilda's form is very disappointing and I don’t see any reason why they will turn it around against Sydney. The Saints has made three changes at selection including King, Gilbert and Harvey for Birss, L Fisher and Armitage. Sydney has won 8 games from its last 10 at the SCG and covered the line in each of the wins. I was shocked to see Adam Goodes only get a reprimand at the tribunal and with him in the side I am happy to Bet 2 units on Sydney -23.5 or better.
Adelaide vs Hawthorn NO PLAY
Adelaide made only one change at selection dropping McGregor for Griffin. The Hawks lost Taylor to injury and dropped Kennedy for Dew and Renouf for his first game. The Crows are tough to beat at AAMI and are undefeated there in 2008. The Hawks smashed the Crows by 44 points in Tasmania in Round Four but the Crows were coming of the Derby the week before. Franklin is the star of the Hawks and likely to be the first player to kick 100 goals since Tony Lockett in 1998. I expect Bock to get the job on Franklin and Rutten to go to Roughhead. Hawthorn is the toughest opponent the Crows have played at AAMI this year. The Hawks have won in Western Australia, Tasmania, Brisbane and Melbourne in 2008 so I don’t see why Adelaide will be any different. I think the bookies have priced the game about right with no clear favourite either way, so no bet for me here.
Geelong vs Port Adelaide NO PLAY
The Cats are coming off a 13 point win over North Melbourne last week and have lost Scarlett and Byrnes to injury and included Taylor, Selwood, Hunt, Tenace and Gamble to an expanded interchange bench. Port is coming off choking in the last quarter against Carlton last week and has lost Stewart and Thurstans to injury and included S Burgoyne, Lower, Lonie, Surjan and White to an expanded interchange bench. Mark Williams mentioned during the week that Chad Cornes was carrying an injury and might be rested until after the mid season break. So I would not be surprised to see him miss the game. Port won this game in Round 21 last year but it meant nothing. The Cats went to AAMI and won by 9 points in round one earlier in the year. I expect the Cats to win at home and the line looks about right so not bet for me.
Collingwood vs Carlton NO PLAY
Collingwood is coming off a 21 point win over an improved Demons effort last week. Meanwhile, Carlton produced a 7 goal last quarter to run over Port Adelaide at AAMI. Both sides have made no changes but added three players to expanded interchange benches. Carlton won the game in round 4 by 23 points over the Pies. Carlton could only manage 3 goals in the first 3 quarters last week against Port Adelaide but kicked 7 goals in the rain in the last quarter. Collingwood struggled against bottom of the ladder Melbourne but did enough to win by 21 points. Collingwood has now won its last 4 games on the trot after coping 65 point belting from the Hawks in Round 7. I expect Collingwood to win but think the bookies have priced the game about the right price, so no bet for me.
Richmond vs Melbourne NO PLAY
The Tigers looked good in the first half against Adelaide last week but the wheels fell off in the second half to allow the Crows to win by 50 points. The Demons played one of their best games of the year to go down fighting and lose by 21 points to Collingwood. Richmond dropped Tivendale and Pettifer as expected but also lost Thursfield and King to injury. The Tigers included 7 players including first gamer Alex Rance to its expanded interchange bench. The injuries continued at Melbourne losing Rivers and Moloney and dropping Bell. Good to see Davey was included along with Frawley, Jamar, C Johnson, Carroll and Whelan to its expanded interchange bench. I expect Jim Stynes to get the Demons to lift in his first game a President Elect. The Tigers should be too good but I don’t fancy the Tigers at 1.35 so no bet for me.

 

AFL ROUND ELEVEN
Geelong -37.5 vs Kangaroos 3 at 1.91 -3
North Melbourne has lost its last 2 games against Geelong and the Cats smashed them in the finals last year by 106 points. Geelong gets back Mooney and Chapman for Taylor and Hawkins. North Melbourne has lost N.Thompson (knee), Jones (ankle) and dropped Watt for Davies, M. Thompson and Brown. The bookies were caught by surprise with the Corey Jones injury and this saw the line move from 32.5 to 36.5 late on Thursday. Nth Melbourne has not lost consecutive games in 2008 but it’s hard to see them beating Geelong. Geelong bounced back with a 56 point win over Carlton at Telstra Dome last week. I think the -38.5 Geelong still looks good value with Nth Melbourne missing all its key forwards. Bet 3 units on Geelong -38.5 or better. (BEST BET)
Richmond +10.5 vs Adelaide 2 at 1.91 -2
The Tigers have only beaten Adelaide once in their last 10 meetings. This was the game in 2006 where Terry Wallace played a super flood and Kevin Sheedy suggested it was more like Basketball. The Tigers won 69 to 66 at Telstra Dome. The Crows have lost Burton to suspension and Griffin to a hip injury for Jericho and McGregor. The Crows have struggled in their last two games losing to West Coast by 50 pts at Subiaco and falling in by 5 points against Essendon last week at AAMI. The Tigers played their worst game of the year against Sydney losing by 82 pts. I expect the Tigers to bounce back and be far more competitive against the Crows. The Tigers have been well backed into 2.50 from 2.95 earlier in the week. The weather forecast is for a shower or two so it could be a tight close game. Bet 2 units on Richmond +10.5 or better.
Essendon to bt Hawthorn 0.5 at 7.00 -0.5
Essendon has lost Hislop to a shoulder injury and have included Laycock. The Hawks welcome back Hodge and Boyle for Murphy and the injured Sewell. Essendon played their best game since their win in Round 3 against Carlton. Hawthorn is coming off its first loss of the year to the Bulldogs last week. I expect Ryder to take Franklin and Fletcher to get Roughhead. The Bulldogs were too quick in the midfield last week and I think the Bombers are a rough chance in the game. The Hawks have been in the news for the wrong reasons all week with the coach and best player Buddy Franklin. The Hawks have been great all year but no Sewell, Crawford, Mc Glynn, Dew and Guerra gives the Bombers an outside chance. I don’t fancy taking the +39.5 about on Essendon but happy to gamble ½ a unit on Essendon at 7.00 or better for value.
West Coast vs Sydney NO PLAY
West Coast has made 7 changes to the side that lost by 100 pts to Collingwood last week. The Swans only made one change including Barlow for Bird. Traditionally these games have been close except for the game earlier in the year when the Swans smashed the Eagles by 62 pts at ANZ Stadium in NSW. The Swans are playing great and West Coast has only 2 wins for the year but they were both at Subiaco. On form you would expect the Swans to be too good but I think it might be a little closer than most people think but no bet for me.
Fremantle +34.5 vs Brisbane 2 at 1.92 +1.84
The Dockers are sitting on just one win for the year over West Coast so it’s hard to make a case for them at the Gabba against a Brisbane side in good form. Brisbane has won its last 3 games in a row and 5 of its last 7 with the only losses to Hawks and Geelong. Brisbane has lost Roe and McGrath to injury and has included five players to an expanded interchange bench. There is some doubt on Brown and Drummond so I wouldn’t be surprised if there is a late change. The Dockers have been very competitive all year but lose the compass in the last quarter and struggle to get out of the backline. The Dockers biggest loss is 64 pts against Richmond at Subiaco but besides that game the losses have all been within 28 points and 4 of the losses have been 9 pts or less. Bet 2 units on Fremantle +34.5 or better.
St. Kilda vs Bulldogs NO PLAY
St Kilda is coming off a big win, albeit against the struggling Demons. The Bulldogs are coming off belting the Hawks down in Tasmania. The Bulldogs will miss Murphy who is out to suspension and lost Callan with a hamstring. They have included Everitt, Harbrow, Hill, Street and Ward to an expanded interchange bench. St Kilda has included L Fisher, Gwilt and Fiora to its expanded interchange bench. How quickly things have changed for the Saints who started 1.33 in round 3 against the Bulldogs and lead by 37 pts at quarter time. The Bulldogs ended up winning the game by 38 pts. St Kilda opened at 3.00 with some Bookies and has been well supported into around 2.60. I am not sure that the Saints have enough speed in the midfield to keep up with the Bulldogs. I think the price is about right so no bet for me here.
Port Adelaide vs Carlton NO PLAY
Port Adelaide coming off a laster quarter win against Fremantle last week has added Bently, Cassisi and White to an expanded interchange squad. Carlton has lost Bower to injury and included Austin, Edwards, Pfeiffer and Waite to its expanded squad. Port Adelaide has won 8 and a draw out of the last 10 games against Carlton. It’s hard to make a case for Carlton at AAMI but with some evening showers forecast it may be a little wet. I remember when the rain came in the Port Adelaide v Brisbane match earlier in the year when Port lead by 47 points only to be overrun by Brisbane. I am happy to wait and check the weather and not get involved at this stage.
Melbourne vs Collingwood NO PLAY
Collingwood has won 4 of its past 5 games and has included Cook, Reid and Rocca to an expanded interchange bench. Melbourne dropped Bell and Buckley, plus lost Robertson to injury. The Demons have included Bode, Carroll, Jamar, C Johnston, Morton and Rivers to its expanded interchange bench. Collingwood has been in good form all year excluding the Round 4 loss to Carlton and Round 7 belting at the hands of the Hawks. The Demons have won only one game for the year so how do you