WEEKLY AFL PICKS .. with OnThePunt's Aussie
Rules Guru
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AFL ROUND TWENTY
Collingwood -39.5 v Essendon
2 at 1.92
+1.84
Another three experienced players out
for Essendon after last week's shellacking, while Collingwood have
several players out "injured" leading up to the finals, but plenty of
depth to replace them with. The Bombers have insufficient weapons to
bounce back with, and Collingwood, who have so much run they can put up
huge scores against weak teams, should run all over them. Bet 2 units on
Collingwood -41.5 or better points (BEST BET)
Richmond +23.5 v Carlton
1 at 1.90
-1
No changes at Carlton after a good win last
week kept them in touch. Richmond bring in a couple of kids to see what
their next generation backline might look like. The line is not
unreasonable, and the Tigers are still yet to beat a Victorian team, but
this rivalry game will sit high on their minds after several losses, and
they will show up to play. Bet 1 unit on Richmond +20.5 or better
points.
Fremantle v Sydney
NO PLAY
Freo seem to be in free-fall as we approach
the pointy end. They drop 3 but still don't get any of their key players
back. Sydney bounced back with a strong win last week and make no
changes. I have no trust in Freo at the moment, but with the line at
only 10.5, I am loath to pick Sydney to cover it. NO PLAY
W. Bulldogs v Geelong
Either Team under 15.5 points
1 at 3.15
-1
Another big game that won't do much to
change ladder positions at the top, is probably a finals preview, but
may mean little. 'Dogs have some good ins and may lose more to this
nasty virus. Geelong have a couple of good players out, but may just be
resting them before the finals. This should be a close one no matter
what, so bet 1 unit on Either Team <15.5 points
Port Adel. -18.5 v West Coast
2 at 1.93
-2
Only 2 players dropped by Port after last
week, although they were playing a top team at their favourite ground.
West Coast were very disappointing at home, and react accordingly at
selection. They have a poor record at AAMI, so expect a somewhat
rejuvenated Port to come home strong. Bet 2 units on Port -18.5 points.
Brisbane v Adelaide
Total Points Scored und 182.5
1 at 1.90
TBA
-1
Brown and Black are both listed but may
drop out, and Adelaide get back a few now they know they can't make the
finals. Very little for either team to prove here, and I’m expecting a
dour, error-filled encounter. Bet 1 unit on Total Points Scored <182.5
Hawthorn v Melbourne
NO PLAY
Hawthorn have not won in three weeks and
now find themselves in danger of dropping out of the finals. They make a
few changes and get Brown back. Melbourne have won their last three, and
suddenly all the focus is on their possible run to the finals, which
hinge on winning this one. The line is too slim to be useful, and this
could go any way by any margin. NO PLAY
St Kilda -23.5 v Nth Melbourne
1 at 1.90
+0.9
North still have a sniff, but a difficult
run home. Only one change after last week's strong performance against a
weakened Freo. The Saints, coming off a demolition job of Port, again
bring in some youth. They are clearly just managing the playing group
leading up to September. The Saints should deliver another strong
performance, so bet 1 unit on St Kilda -24.5 or better points
AFL ROUND NINETEEN
Essendon v Carlton
Total Points Over 187.5
1 at 1.91
Luxbet
+0.91
Just one forced change at Essendon, who
have two good wins and are finishing strongly, while Carlton are in
tatters and have made four changes, including Walker out. Difficult to
find value with the betting about even, but with two fast running teams
and ordinary defences, we go outside the square and bet 1 unit on Total
Points Scored >189.5
Sydney v Hawthorn
Either Team under 15.5 points
1 at 3.15
-1
Sydney’s place in the eight is in jeopardy after a couple of bad losses,
yet only one change – don’t they have any more players? Hawthorn have
put in a couple of sub-par performances and get back Taylor from injury.
A narrow line isn’t worth punting on, but these teams have played a few
close ones, so bet 1 unit on Either Team <15.5 points
Nth Melbourne v Fremantle
NO PLAY
Wells is among four players in for the
struggling North who have only one win (against Richmond) in their last
five games. Freo are also struggling with injuries and depth that have
affected their performance in a big way, and after another three key
players are out, North have shortened significantly, and there is no
value bet to be found. NO PLAY.
Geelong v Collingwood
Either Team under 15.5 points
1 at 2.95
-1
Total Points under 179.5
1 at 1.90
-1
Geelong bring in Bartel for the big clash,
while Collingwood bring in some experience. This key battle between 1 &
2 is more for bragging rights than anything else. Again, no meaningful
line, but given these teams should play a tight, defensive game, the
best value here is to bet 1 unit on Either Team <15.5 points, and bet 1
unit on Total Points Scored <XXX points
West Coast -7.5 v Brisbane
2 at 1.91
-2
West Coast surprise us at selection
with only two forced changes after last week’s flogging in the derby,
while Brisbane continue to struggle, with Fev finally realizing that his
season is over. This key battle between 15 & 16 has major implications
for the wooden spoon. Brisbane haven’t played West Coast at Subiaco for
a while, and their recent games have gone to the home team. Bet 2 units
on West Coast -8.5 or better points (BEST BET)
St Kilda -27.5 v Port Adelaide
2 at 1.92
+1.84
For the second week, and not having won a game in the last three, St
Kilda bring in some kids. Are they comfortable with finishing 3 or 4 and
now just focussing on September? The resurgent Port bring in another kid
to try out. Lots of talk this week about St Kilda’s reluctance to go
forward. After three poor performances, expect some “adjustments” from
their coach as they get back on track. Bet 2 units on StK -27.5
Melbourne v Richmond
NO PLAY
Melbourne have a couple of good ins this
week in Moloney and Trengove, while Richmond may end up with no changes
to a winning combination. Last year both these teams two very close
games of a very poor standard, and earlier this year, Melbourne walloped
Richmond, who were really struggling at the time. Richmond have yet to
beat a Melbourne-based team this year, and probably won’t. Nevertheless,
I don’t see much value here. NO PLAY
Adelaide +21.5 v W. Bulldogs
1 at 1.92
+0.92
Lots of changes at Adelaide, with some good
ins; let’s hope Rising Star Davis actually gets a game after being
nominated and then dropped for their two losses. Dogs are running hot
and obliterating weak opposition; no changes are anticipated. The
Bulldogs’ record at AAMI is far from stellar, and they may have half a
mind on the more important clash next week against Geelong. Bet 1 unit
on Adelaide +20.5 or better points.
AFL ROUND EIGHTEEN
Essendon +31.5 v St Kilda
1 at 1.91
+0.91
Essendon finally get Hille back, which will
give them a big boost after their strong win last week. The Saints have
their eyes on September, and have an “easy” run home. These teams have
played a few close ones in their last few games, and the line of 31.5
points looks quite large with one team hungry to make a point and
another coasting. Bet 1 unit on Ess +31.5 points
Collingwood v Carlton
NO PLAY
Cloke comes straight back in for
Collingwood, while Fisher gets a go for Carlton. Form and ladder
position are often quite irrelevant here. Historically, these matches
aren’t very close affairs, but predicting something meaningful in a
blustery MCG is beyond me. NO PLAY.
Port Adel. +20.5 v Hawthorn
2 at 1.92
+1.84
Port are back in the winners’ circle, and
make only two changes, both forced. Hawthorn lose Brown to suspension
(again). Port seem to match up well against the Hawks, and with showers
predicted, this could be another AAMI slippery slog. Bet 2 units on Port
+18.5 or better points
Sydney +28.5 v Geelong
1 at 1.92
-1
Incredibly, there are no changes to
Sydney’s team after last week’s disgrace. Geelong have a couple out and
are also gearing up for September action. Expect a little more from
Sydney, and slightly less from Geelong because of the away factor. Bet 1
unit on Syd +26.5 points
Brisbane v Melbourne
Total Score Over 173.5 points
2 at 1.90
-2
After 7 straight losses, and just one win
in their last 13, Brisbane will be glad to be back at the Gabba, where
they have beaten Melbourne easily in their last three attempts. They
will also be bolstered by the return of McGrath & Black. Melbourne are
hot again, and have found their second wind this season. The bookies
have this one at around evens, so let’s look outside the square and bet
2 units on Total Match Points > approx. 173.5 **ERROR AMENDED
Adelaide -8.5 v Richmond
1 at 1.93
-1
Richmond’s lack of depth and a destabilized
group was shown up last week by a Collingwood that were described by
their coach as “scratchy”. They get back a few key players, possibly
including Taylor back from walkabout. Adelaide lose Johncock and are a
very different team to the one who played the first half of the season.
Richmond match up poorly against them, so my mind says Bet 1 unit on
Adelaide -9.5 or better points.
W. Bulldogs v Nth Melbourne
NO PLAY
‘Dogs are coming into red hot form when it
counts, and look good for a top-4 spot. North still have a sniff of the
8, but getting weaker by the week. For different reasons, both teams are
debuting some kids. While you’d think the Bulldogs would be again all
over North as they were earlier this year at the same venue, I’m
inclined to play safe and NO PLAY.
Fremantle -17.5 v West Coast
2 at 1.98
+1.96
This week we have other derby. Freo
have suffered badly onfield as a result of injuries which may put their
top-4 aspirations in jeopardy. They lose a couple to injury, and bring
back Tarrant and some others. West Coast played a good first half of
football last week, but collapsed in the second half, and only make two
changes, both forced. Despite the relative ups and downs of these two
teams, Freo have won the last 6 between these two, and you’d expect them
to bounce harder from last week’s disappointment. Bet 2 units on Freo
-17.5 points (BEST BET)
AFL ROUND SEVENTEEN
St Kilda v Hawthorn
Either Team under 15.5 points
1 at 3.15
+2.15
Both teams get back key players this week –
Dal Santo & Franklin - for a very important clash. Saints are coming off
a humiliating loss to the new top team, Hawks from a huge win in Tassie.
This should be a close, tight struggle. Bet 1 unit on Either Team <15.5
points.
Collingwood -39.5 v Richmond
1 at 1.91
+0.91
Richmond’s run of wins came to a bitter,
cold end at a wet MCG last week. They are back to making huge numbers of
changes, mostly as a result of injury. Is there any chance Collingwood
will take it easy after their big win last week, and the Tigers will
show some character against a top team and be competitive enough to
cover a sizeable line? I think not. Bet 1 unit on Coll -39.5 points
Geelong -48.5 v Brisbane
2 at 1.90
+1.8
What’s the worst thing that can
happen the week after getting flogged in chilly Aurora Stadium? Having
to play a competition leader on the rebound at Kardinia Park of course!
Geelong are nearing full strength, while Brisbane reacted to their loss
with only 4 changes. Bet 2 units on Geel -49.5 or better points
(BEST BET)
Nth Melb. -14.5 v Essendon
1 at 1.92
-1
North lose two to injury after last week’s
good win, while Essendon are down to revolving door selection as they
seem to go from bad to worse. With Carlton losing games and having a
tough one at Subiaco this week, North will have their eyes on a top 8
spot, which is now within reach. Bet 1 unit on North -15.5 or better
points
Carlton to bt West Coast
1 at 1.95
+0.95
West Coast make no changes to the winning
side, while Carlton, almost in free fall with just one win in their last
five games, give Warnock a chance. While Subiaco hasn’t been a good
hunting ground for the Blues, Ratten leads the coaching head-to-head
3-0. Bet 1 unit on Carlton WIN
Fremantle +22.5 v W. Bulldogs
1 at 1.92
-1
Hall is named for the ‘Dogs after they said
he’s be out for two weeks, so he may be a late withdrawal. Freo have
been hit hard with injuries in recent weeks, and they have surprisingly
brought in two kids with just a few weeks away from finals. Have they
run out of depth? Eade leads the coaching head-to-head 4-0 but that was
against the “old” Fremantle. With a lot at stake for both teams, this
should be a close one. Bet 1 unit on Freo +20.5 or better points.
Sydney -8.5 v Melbourne
1 at 1.92
-1
Melbourne have looked a lot better in the
last couple of weeks with a win and a spirited loss, but Sydney are also
on the comeback trail with the finals looming. The bookies continue to
underrate them, and they should easily cover a very small line. Bet 1
unit on Sydney -9.5 or better points.
Port Adelaide v Adelaide
NO PLAY
Port are now making the sort of selection
changes one would expect from a new coach, with just a few weeks left.
Adelaide are looking and playing like a completely different team, and
if other results fall their way, could even make the finals. But Derby
games are notoriously difficult, so while you’d expect Port to cover the
line, do the safe thing and NO PLAY.
AFL ROUND SIXTEEN
Adelaide v Geelong
NO PLAY
Adelaide have finally hit their straps, and
have half an eye on an unlikely top 8 spot with 4 wins in their last 5
games. They will be bolstered by the return of McLeod this week. Geelong
fought out a tough one against Hawthorn last week and bring back two
premiership players. In their recent run, Adelaide’s wins have been
against mediocre teams, while they have been thoroughly beaten by top
ones. But the line is too close to call for a home game, so NO PLAY
Collingwood v St Kilda
Total Points Under 164.5
1 at 1.90
+0.90
Cloke is a big loss for the ‘Pies, yet
Fraser can’t make the side for his 200th, while St Kilda bring back
their two late withdrawals from last week. Big clash between 2 & 3 on
the ladder, and the Saints will have to work hard to protect their place
on the ladder. This will be a tight, low-scoring tussle. Odds on this
are almost evens, so the search for value takes us to bet 1 unit on
Total Match Points <164.5.
Hawthorn -22.5 v Brisbane
2 at 1.93
+1.86
Brown is straight back in, but they will
miss Black. Hawthorn bring captain Mitchell right back after just one
week with a broken hand. After last week’s narrow loss, Hawthorn will be
back with a vengeance, especially considering Brisbane surprised them
last year at this same fixture. Bet 2 units on Hawthorn -22.5 points
Essendon -16.5 v West Coast
2 at 1.92
-2
Essendon were a disappointment (again) last
week; they get back Fletcher to bolster the back line, and Gumbleton
after his late withdrawal last week. Games between these two go to the
home team, and with Essendon needing to show some backbone, expect a
strong performance from them at the fast, small, Etihad Stadium. Bet 2
units on Essendon -16.5 points.
W. Bulldogs -32.5 v Port Adel.
1 at 1.92
+0.92
Port put up some fight last week against
Collingwood after the news of their coach’s dismissal. The new coach has
only made 3 changes, which is a little surprising. Bulldogs get back
Eagleton and finally give Everitt a chance, while Hall is “rested” for
the long trip. You’d think the ‘Dogs would again pummel a weak Port
despite their change of coach, so bet 1 unit on WB -32.5 points.
Sydney +10.5 v Carlton
1 at 1.92
+0.92
Last week Sydney showed what they were made
of to consolidate a top 8 spot, while Carlton showed what they weren’t.
The Blues get back Waite for some marking power, and bring in some
youngsters, while Sydney may have an unchanged line-up. Sydney are being
under-rated by the bookies; bet 1 unit on Sydney +10.5 points.
Richmond v Nth Melbourne
NO PLAY
After the last two wins against top teams,
Richmond would have to be one of the form teams of the competition. They
get back Cousins, who could barely sleep after the news of his recall to
the team, but lose three to injury. Petrie is a big loss for North, and
he’s always done well against Richmond. Tigers should put down another
win, but very hard to find betting value here; NO PLAY
Fremantle -26.5 v Melbourne
2 at 1.93
-2
After last week’s shock loss, Freo
have some good ins on their extended list. Melbourne lose Trengove after
last weeks big win against Essendon. Melboune tend to lose big at
Subiaco, and the Dockers at home after being shamed last week will put
in a big one. Bet 2 units on Freo -26.5 points
(BEST BET).
AFL ROUND FIFTEEN
Hawthorn +20.5 v Geelong
2 at 1.91
+1.82
Blockbuster here, with Geelong bringing
back three premiership players to replace some kids, and Hawthorn with a
big loss in Mitchell somewhat offset by a couple of good inclusions.
These teams have played some close ones, Hawthorn are in excellent form,
and being at the 'G will work in their favour. Bet 2 units on Hawthorn
+18.5 points.
West Coast v Adelaide
NO PLAY
Now that West Coast have adopted the mantle
of wooden spoon favourites, they revert to Richmond's practice of making
a zillion changes each week, while Adelaide are on the up, and looking
good and stable with no changes to their winning combination. While
you'd think the Crows would batter the hapless Eagles, they don't play
quite so well at Subiaco, so NO PLAY
Brisbane v St Kilda
NO PLAY
Fev comes back in for Brisbane, but who
knows if that will help, while the Saints get back that other Reiwoldt,
although they've been doing quite well without him in recent weeks. St
Kilda's record at the Gabba has been quite poor, although this is partly
reflective of the relative fortunes of each team in recent years. The
line is too high, but I daren't not choose Brisbane to cover it. NO
PLAY.
Richmond v Fremantle
Either Team under 15.5 points
1 at 3.25
-1
Cousins is out (caught napping) for the
Tigers, who have 4 wins in their last 5 games, one of which was actually
against a half-decent team, while Freo have some huge outs this week and
have to replace them with some youngsters. This could be another tight
struggle, and with a slim line of 13.5 points, the better value is to
bet 1 unit on Either Team <15.5 points.
Sydney -15.5 v Nth Melbourne
1 at 1.92
+0.92
This is a huge game for these two top-8
contenders. Sydney make a few changes, bringing in a mix of experience
and youth, while North, who are on the up, finally get Petrie back, and
debut Tarrant Jr. After last week's disappointment, and at home in
possibly wet conditions, Sydney should bounce back hard. Bet 1 unit on
Sydney -15.5 points.
Essendon to bt Melbourne
2 at 1.91
-2
Melbourne will miss Grimes in the
backline and get back some key players from injury, while Essendon will
welcome back Neagle up forward, and some of their speedier players,
after last week's flogging. Essendon have lost four on the trot, while
Melbourne have not won a game for five weeks. With the odds even, who is
hungrier. Knights' coaching record should see the 'Dons home. Bet 2
units on Essendon WIN (BEST BET)
Carlton v Bulldogs
Total Score over 182.5 points
1 at 1.90
+0.9
Carlton slot Bower in and may make some
other changes, and the ‘Dogs have lost three of their bigger-bodied
players to injury. Ratten has a perfect record against his opposite
number, so this will be a test of whether the Bulldogs are the real deal
this year. Bet 1 unit on Total Points Scored >182.5 points.
AFL ROUND FOURTEEN
Hawthorn v Western Bulldogs
Total Points Over 164.5
1 at 1.90
-1
After the return of key players, and a good
run of wins, Hawthorn have finally stabilized at selection, while the
‘Dogs get back Higgins to bolster the midfield. Hawthorn have six on the
trot, while the Bulldogs have played into form with two big wins against
weak opponents. Result could go anywhere, and the line is too close, so
bet 1 unit on Total Points Scored >164.5
Fremantle v Port Adelaide
NO PLAY
Fremantle get back Johnson after his
club-imposed suspension, while Port bring back some experience for the
trip to Subiaco. Port have a reasonable record in the west, and I keep
thinking they might dig deep and come up with something. NO PLAY
Coll'wood -46.5 v West Coast
1 at 1.93
+0.93
Collingwood bring back Anthony for Dick
while the Eagles are focussed on the future. With the way the ‘Pies have
played against weaker teams, and the way West Coast have played
recently, this should be quite a beat up. Bet 1 unit on Collingwood
-46.5 points
Adelaide -8.5 v Essendon
1 at 1.92
+0.92
Adelaide are coming off a strong win, and
bring back Porplezia, while Essendon, on a three-game losing streak,
have brought in some pace, but lose two senior players. They seem to
have the wood over Essendon, winning their last 4. You’d think Adelaide
should win this, so bet 1 unit on Adelaide -8.5 points.
Geelong -35.5 v Nth Melbourne
2 at 1.92
-2
Geelong coming off a loss, and at
home, where they have always won big and covered the line. They lose
three top players, but get back another three, while a resurgent North
seem to be unchanged. But they will hit a big brick wall at Kardinia
Park this week like so many others. Bet 2 units on Geelong -35.5 points
(BEST BET).
Richmond v Sydney
Either Team under 15.5 points
1 at 3.15
+2.15
Tigers selection is getting much more
stable these days, with Moore back, while Sydney get back a few,
although you have to wonder if Bradshaw will really be back. Tigers have
not done well against Sydney in recent games, yet they fancy themselves.
At the MCG, this might be a close one so bet 1 unit on Either Team <15.5
points.
St Kilda -32.5 v Melbourne
1 at 1.90
+0.9
The Saints, coming off a tough win against
Geelong lose Baker for a while, and get Gram back, while Melbourne look
like only having one change this week. With the Saints coming back to
their best form, and at their favoured Etihad Stadium, they should
overpower Melbourne, so bet 1 unit on StK -33.5 or better points.
Brisbane +26.5 v Carlton
1 at 1.92
Luxbet
-1
Stacks of changes at Carlton, who will
really miss big men Waite & Kreuzer, but some good replacements that may
slightly offset. Brisbane lose Fev, so the Thursday night showcase game
is a bit of a fizzer on that front, but he was struggling anyway, and
they will be boosted by the return of McGrath and especially Black in
the middle. The Blues are coming off two losses, and ought to win, while
Brisbane are in the doldrums, suffering the ignominy of losing to
Richmond, but should bounce back a bit against a team they match up well
with. Given the history between the two teams, the line looks great
value. Bet 1 unit on Brisbane +24.5 points or better.
AFL ROUND THIRTEEN
St Kilda +19.5 v Geelong
1 at 1.92
+0.92
Geelong lose Chapman, one of their best
players, but are compensated by the return of two experienced
premiership players, while not too much at selection for the Saints.
Geelong’s last 7 straight victories have all been by 24 points or more,
and if you exclude their game at Subiaco, where they don’t perform quite
so well, the minimum margin is 36 points. You’d think that would make
tonight’s line of 20.5 points a no brainer to cover. But St Kilda have
found their way back into things after their post-Riewoldt sputter, and
with the Saints often playing in low scoring matches, and slick
conditions tonight at the ‘G, this should be a close encounter. Bet 1
unit on St Kilda +19.5.
Collingwood -7.5 v Sydney
2 at 2.01
+2.02
Sydney finally get back Bradshaw, who with
Shaw will add some valuable experience. Collingwood get 3 big names in
to compensate for the loss of Maxwell, while they drop a few who ought
to be there but have been struggling. The ‘Pies have a strong record
against Sydney both in general and at this venue, and the games don’t
seem to be very close. In addition, they will bounce back hard after a
disappointing performance against Melbourne. Bet 1 unit on Collingwood
-7.5 points.
Adelaide v Melbourne
NO PLAY
Adelaide bring in some youth, and will miss
the run of Bock out of defence, while Melbourne seem to be doing a
Collingwood-like rotation of regular players ... do they have their eyes
on September action? Last time these two played an ugly, low-scoring
game in poor conditions. It should be better at AAMI on Sunday, but
still too hard to pick anything. NO PLAY
Hawthron v Essendon
Total Points Over 175.5
1 at 1.90
+0.9
Hawthorn are on a roll and looking like a
very different team to the one that lost six games in a row. Mostly this
has to do with finally getting players back and into form. They get back
another two experienced premiership players this week, while Essendon
will be boosted by the return of Hooker from injury. Essendon are coming
off a creaming at the hands of Geelong, but have won their last three
against Hawthorn. With a slim line, it’s hard to make any predictions on
the result, but bet 1 unit on Total Points Scored >175.5.
Fremantle +8.5 v Carlton
1 at 1.93
+0.93
As predicted, Carlton make four changes to
the team who were outclassed by North last week., while Freo get Palmer
back after his late exclusion last week. Freo have lost their last two,
and Carlton have only lost two in a row in rounds 2-3 this year. I
reckon Freo will come back hard and win this well. Bet 1 unit on Freo
+7.5 or better points.
Richmond +17.5 v Richmond
2 at 2.00
+2
Brownless Brisbane have struggled in
the last few weeks, and with no changes at selection after a loss, are
suffering from injuries. They haven’t done particularly well at the
Gabba this year. Richmond are full of confidence after a big win, have
only one forced change with Foley unable to get back into the team,
although are probably set for a let-down performance. This will probably
be a hard fought game, so bet 2 units on Richmond +17.5 points
(BEST BET)
Port Adel. +20.5 v Nth Melb
1 at 1.91
-1
Are we seeing a resurgent North Melbourne?
They have followed two thrashings with two gutsy wins, while Port have
lost five in a row and have another three experienced players out this
week. However, I think the bookies have been a little too generous, and
Port will dig a little deeper. Bet 1 unit on Port +19.5 or better points
West Coast v W. Bulldogs
NO PLAY
Worsford has finally gotten the message:
the Eagles are rebuilding, and he has brought in some youngsters to show
it. Meanwhile, the ‘Dogs get back Hargrave and their captain Johnson and
are looking hot. Interestingly, the Eagles have upset the Bulldogs in
their last two meetings, and the Bulldogs haven’t performed that well in
the west. NO PLAY.
AFL ROUND TWELVE
Carlton -23.5 v Nth Melbourne
2 at 1.98
-2
Not much at selection. Gutsy win by
North last week to hold on against a late charge, which may give them
some renewed vigour, while Carlton took care of Mebourne in the wet.
North have a habit of fading after good starts, and with the Carlton's
run, even if North get the jump on them, they will still run away with a
big win. Bet 2 units on Carlton -23.5 points
(BEST BET)
Hawthorn -15.5 v Adelaide
1 at 1.90
+0.9
Hawthorn get back Buddy, while at the other
end Stratton has been impressive, which is a good sign for a team with
some form (although only one of the wins was very impressive). Adelaide
get back Bock and Symes to help in defence, and have had a couple of
unexpected wins against decent teams at home in recent weeks. However,
they don't do very well in cold Aurora Stadium, and the Hawks should
cover a modest line in reasonable conditions. Bet 1 unit on Hawks -16.5
or better points
Essendon v Geelong
NO PLAY
The Bombers have brought in some bigger,
experienced bodies against the hard Cats and will really miss Monfries
and Hille. Geelong get back Ling, have swapped West for WA-specialist
Simpson, but lose Mooney. While you'd think the Cats would cover the
line against a weakened Bombers, it looks just a little high for me at
Etihad Stadium, so NO PLAY
Port Adelaide v Sydney
Total Points Under 170.5
1 at 1.88
+0.88
Sydney scraped a close win in the wet last
week to get back on the winners list after four straight losses, and
they also get back a couple of regulars after injury. Port are coming
off four straight losses. Hard to pick a result here and no line, but it
will probably be low scoring, so Bet 1 unit on Total Match Points <170.5
points.
Richmond to bt West Coast
1 at 1.91
+0.91
For the first time this year, Richmond are
(slight) favourites, which is unchartered territory for them. Their
midfield has been very good in recent weeks, and they get back Jackson,
and will probably make another change. Not much selection change at West
Coast, who put up a good effort against Melbourne in their only MCG game
this year. Bet 1 unit on Richmond WIN.
Bulldogs -23.5 v Brisbane
2 at 1.91
+1.82
The Bulldogs were well beaten last week by
Collingwood, despite a late rally, but will consider their last two
losses as games they could have won and will be out for blood. They get
back Murphy who will bolster their forward line. Brisbane get back
Merrett but lose two good backmen to injury. Bet 2 units on WB -23.5
points.
Fremantle v St Kilda
Either Team under 15.5
1 at 3.15
-1
Not much at selection for either teams this
week. Freo coming off a surprise loss in Adelaide, although they have
faltered there in the past. Saints seem to have gotten their mojo back,
although their three strong wins have been against the three bottom
teams on the ladder. In their favour is a 5-0 record by Lyon over
Harvey, but both teams are quite different from their last few meetings.
Bet 1 unit on Either Team <15.5 points.
Collingwood -31.5 v Melbourne
1 at 1.93
-1
Melbourne will miss Macdonald, who is
injured, while Collingwood also lose Ball and Johnson to injury, but
might be continuing their player rotation with an eye on September. When
they played earlier this year, Collingwood scraped home by a point, and
an invigorated Melbourne went on to win their next three. But since
then, Melbourne have gone back to looking ordinary most of the time.
Collingwood are due for a big win, so bet 1 unit on Pies -31.5 points.
AFL ROUND ELEVEN
St Kilda -36.5 v Richmond
1 at 1.93
+0.93
The Saints lose Dawson who hasn't been
playing well, while Richmond selectors are clearly not sure how to deal
with a winning team, and have made just two changes, bringing in Simmo
for his farewell game. That, plus coming off their very first win, might
give Richmond some high expectations. But St Kilda have a history of
strong wins against Richmond, and they play well on the fast, dry Etihad
Stadium. Bet 1 unit on StK -36.5 points.
Carlton v Melbourne
NO PLAY
Melbourne bring back a couple of star kids
who were "rested" last week against Geelong, plus Bate, while Carlton
dropped McLean who won't get to play against his old club, and have
brought some experience back in. You’d expect a bounce from Melbourne
this week and they ought to cover the line, but it’s a bit too close to
call against a high scoring Carlton. NO PLAY
Fremantle -16.5 v Adelaide
1 at 1.97
-1
Edwards comes back in for one last game for
Adelaide, who also get Johncock back but will miss Bock. Barlow returns
for Freo although they will miss Haselby in the middle. While Freo have
had a chequered history at AAMI, they've had a season of breaking those
sorts of hoodoos, so bet 1 unit on Freo -17.5 or better points.
Brisbane -10.5 v Nth Melb.
2 at 1.93
-2
A bit of a surprise to see Brennan
back so quickly for Brisbane. They will be pleased to be back on the
winning list after a stirring performance against Collingwood last week.
North, on the other hand, keep losing big to any team with a smidgeon of
class. Bet 2 units on Bris -12.5 or better points
(BEST BET)
West Coast +39.5 v Geelong
2 at 1.92
+1.84
Geelong bring in Simpson as their Subiaco
specialist ruckman, while no huge changes at West Coast. While Geelong
has been smashing opponents left right and centre, their record in the
West is not as good, so the big line may not be as justified this time.
Bet 2 unit on West Coast +39.5 points
Sydney v Essendon
Total Points Under 169.5
1 at 1.85
+0.85
Essendon have Fletcher out, but Sydney
don't yet have Bradshaw back. The Bombers are resurgent with three wins
on the trot, two of them against top sides. Sydney, on the other hand,
are in a serious rut, and will welcome the opportunity to play at home
on a soggy SCG, which will slow the fast Bombers. Bet 1 unit on Total
Points Scored <169.5
Port Adel. +18.5 v Hawthorn
2 at 1.91
+1.82
Hawthorn get back Bateman but will
certainly miss Franklin, who has been coming into good form, and
enforcer Brown. Port get back Motlop and Brogan, but will miss
Hitchcock. Port are coming off three losses, including a stinger in the
wet last week against Richmond, while the Hawks are on the up with three
wins on the trot, which started with an ugly scrape home against
Richmond. Port have a good record against Hawthorn at the 'G, and the
line does not do this justice. Bet 2 units on Port +17.5 or better
points.
Collingwood v Bulldogs
NO PLAY
Collingwood bring back some experienced
players after two losses on the trot, while the 'Dogs lose two
experienced players and bring back Eagleton and some younger players
into their squad. Bulldogs were coming back into some good form before
an unexpected loss last week, while Collingwood will be keen to get back
on the winning list. This is way too hard to predict – NO PLAY.
AFL ROUND TEN
Geelong -48.5 v Melbourne
2 at 1.95
+1.9
Scarlett again out for Geelong, while
Melbourne make the strange move of "resting" a couple of their young
players against the strong and touch Cats playing at home. It's been a
bad, bad place for any teams who make the journey, and while the line is
pretty big, it's lower than any of their winning margins at home this
year. Bet 2 units on Geelong -48.5 points.
Port Adelaide v Richmond
NO PLAY
Port lose Motlop, while Richmond debut
Griffiths and lose Foley. They've done OK (relatively speaking) at AAMI,
Port have underperformed there, and with wet weather predicted, this may
not be a blowout. Stay safe and NO PLAY.
Collingwood -22.5 v Brisbane
1 at 1.95
-1
Brisbane have lost 5 on the trot, and have
Adcock out, while the 'Pies are rotating some experienced players
through in what appears to be a season plan for keeping everyone in
touch. Collingwood are coming off only their second loss, and a bruising
one, but have a knack of beating up mediocre teams. Bet 1 unit on
Collingwood -22.5 points.
St Kilda v Adelaide
NO PLAY
Adelaide are a little shocked at the sudden
retirement of Edwards, while the Saints dug deep and maybe rejuvenated
their season after a bit of a stutter. Lyon has a perfect record in the
coaching head-to-head; the question is whether they can also cover the
line. NO PLAY
Hawthorn v Sydney
Either Team under 15.5
1 at 3.50
+2.5
Hawthorn have shown that they can turn
around completely in a very short time after their strong win last week,
but things aren't looking as promising for Sydney, who lose Bradshaw
again. Hard to know which version of either team will show up. This will
probably be a bit of a close one, so Bet 1 unit on Either Team <15.5
points.
Carlton -29.5 v West Coast
1 at 1.95
-1
Carlton have four youngsters out injured,
and have a tendency to bounce back hard from those thrashings that
remind them how good they *really* are. West Coast are playing only
their second game this year at Jihad Stadium. Expect a strong win from
Carlton, so bet 1 unit on Carlton -29.5 points
Fremantle -37.5 v Nth Melb.
1 at 1.90
+0.90
No huge selection changes at Freo, while
North bring in extra big men to combat Sandilands, and will miss the run
of Wells. They have lost large to the top sides this year, and generally
at Subi. Bet 1 unit on Freo -38.5 or better points.
AFL ROUND NINE
Collingwood v Geelong
NO PLAY
Two weeks in a row 1 vs 2. Since their loss
to Carlton, Geelong have been even more dominant and playing some very
good football. Collingwood have been on a roll, and enjoyed a good win
at Subiaco last week, so both these teams seem to deserve their places
on the ladder. They are both very high scoring attacks - how will their
defences match up against these? NO PLAY
Bulldogs -24.5 v Nth Melb.
1 at 1.93
+0.93
North have won 3 of their last 4, but have
yet to do well against a quality side while the 'Dogs had a breakthrough
game last week against Sydney and have cranked it up a notch. While
North has done well against the Bulldogs in the past, I reckon Aka and
his friends will have a gay old time and light up Etihad Stadium with a
strong win. Bet 1 unit on WB -24.5 points.
Sydney v Fremantle
Either Team under 15.5
1 at 3.15
-1
Sydney are coming off two losses against
top teams that will have dented their confidence and perception as a
genuine contender - good that they have Bradshaw back in. Freo will be
looking to bounce back after their loss at home to Collingwood and don't
have a good record at the SCG. After this game, either Sydney will have
lost three on the trot, or both will have lost two. Bet 1 unit on Either
Team <15.5 points.
Essendon v Richmond
NO PLAY
Richmond played all four quarters for the
first time in a long time, and ended only three points short of an
abysmal Hawthorn, and have Cousins back to augment an impressive
midfield brigade. Will they be able to adapt their game plan to the
pacey 'Dons, or will they get blown away in another mad final quarter?
NO PLAY
Port Adel. -9.5 v Melbourne
1 at 1.91
Luxbet
-1
Melbourne are suffering from injuries in a
big way, and will miss Bate and Bruce, while no changes at Port.
Melbourne don't play well away, and Port will bounce after last week's
fading effort. Bet 1 unit on Port -9.5 points.
Brisbane -5.5 v Adelaide
1 at 1.99
-1
Brisbane have started well but have failed
miserably in recent weeks against the ladder leaders to be 4-4, and
there are doubts about Fev's fitness for this week. Adelaide may be
spirited by their fourth quarter performances in the last two weeks, but
then there's the small matter of those first three quarters. Expect a
better Brisbane this time; bet 1 unit on Bris -6.5 or better points.
Carlton -17.5 v Hawthorn
2 at 1.90
-2
Carlton will be feeding off their
usual inflated sense of self-worth after two very good wins. Hawthorn
were quite abysmal last week and despite their good coaching
head-to-head record against Carlton, will not be able to cope with
Carlton's run. Bet 2 units on Carlton -18.5 or better points
(BEST BET)
St Kilda to bt West Coast
1 at 1.87
+0.87
Saints coming off two losses and Gram only
lasted one week before falling to injury. West Coast are looking a bit
better and coming off two wins, but against who? Bet 1 unit on St Kilda
to win
AFL ROUND EIGHT
Fremantle v Collingwood
NO PLAY
Harvey is cranking up the trash talk with
comments about Collingwood’s tactics, and suggesting 4-5 changes earlier
in the week after a short break and long travel, so expect some further
late changes. Collingwood will miss Medhurst against his old team, and
Presti has missed out for some reason (or has he?). Interestingly, the
only loss for either team this year was against St Kilda (back when they
were good). I think this won’t be a close encounter at the finish, but
there doesn’t seem to be any value bets, so NO PLAY.
Western Bulldogs v Sydney
Either Team under 15.5
1 at 3.15
-1
The ‘Dogs will miss Everett in defence,
while Sydney get back LRT, they will be short on ruck strength. WB
expected to be doing better this year, while Sydney will be keen to show
where they really stand after last week’s shocker at Kardinia Park. Line
is too close to be useful. This should be a tight one so bet 1 unit on
Either Team <15.5 points
West Coast +19.5 v Melbourne
2 at 1.91
+1.82
Finally Watts plays his first game of the
year for Melbourne, while nothing significant at selection for the
Eagles. Melbourne will fancy themselves at the ‘G after last week’s good
effort, but the Eagles are a better team than their record indicates,
and have not been to Melbourne in four weeks. Bet 2 units on WC +18.5 or
better points
Brisbane +21.5 v Geelong
2 at 1.91
-2
Brisbane started with a bang but have
fallen away after their shock loss to Melbourne, although they did lose
to two top sides. They get back a few from suspension and injury, but
will miss the run of Drummond and Brennan. Stokes will be stoked to be
back in the Geelong team, and all juiced up for a big clash, although
without jPod, they might be a few goals short of a huge score, and have
not been nearly as dominant away from home. Bet 2 units on Brisbane
+20.5 or better points (BEST BET)
Adelaide over 15.5 v Nth Melb.
1 at 3.35
-1
North swap some kids for some other kids,
while Adelaide, fresh from their first success of the season, get a
couple of good players in, although will miss the run out of defence
from Johncock. North have been pummelled by good teams, and have won
against mediocre ones – the big question is: did we see a glimpse of the
fast-running, fast-scoring Adelaide in the last quarter against
Richmond? Considering Adelaide’s strong record against North, and the
fact that North have not beaten Adelaide at Etihad Stadium in the four
games they have played there, bet 1 unit on Adelaide > 15.5 points.
Richmond +32.5 v Hawthorn
1 at 1.90
+0.9
HT/FT Richmond/Hawthorn
0.5 at 8
-0.5
In a huge shock, there is only one
confirmed change at Richmond, who will be boosted in the midfield by the
return of Foley. Instead, it’s Hawthorn with a huge number of changes,
including Buddy, who usually does well against Richmond. Last week, you
might’ve thought you were safe at three quarter time with Richmond on
the plus, but a 30.5 points line can be covered in about 6 minutes of
last quarter flurry against the Tigers. However, Hawthorn’s last
quarters have been almost as bad as Richmond’s, so bet 1 unit on
Richmond +30.5 or better points, and bet ½ a unit on Half Time/Full Time
of Richmond/Hawthorn
Port Adelaide v Carlton
Either Team under 15.5
1 at 3.20
-1
Total Points under 188.5
1 at 1.90
-1
Port will miss Krakouer and Tredrea, while
no confirmed Carlton changes just yet. Carlton have a good record
against Port, and also do quite OK at AAMI, hence the even money odds on
the game. With Carlton’s miserly defence, this should be a low scoring,
tight game, so Bet 1 unit on Either Team <15.5 points, and Bet 1 unit on
Total Points Scored <188.5 points
St Kilda v Essendon
NO PLAY
After last week’s disappointing loss, the
Saints bring in some younger legs, while there’s nothing significant in
the changes at Essendon. The ‘Dons have done reasonably well against
StK, and they both like the fast, small Etihad Stadium. Given St Kilda’s
lack of scoring power in the absence of Riewoldt, and Essendon’s free
flowing game, the line is just 15.5 points, although you’d think St
Kilda will show some backbone and come back strongly after their poor
showings. NO PLAY.
AFL ROUND SEVEN
Bulldogs -25.5 v Melbourne
2 at 1.91
-2
Bulldogs will miss a couple of
experienced players, although Boyd will be a handy replacement, while
Melbourne will really miss having Petterd up forward. Following their
two earlier losses, the ‘Dogs have responded with strong victories, so
expect another one tonight. Bet 2 units on WB -25.5
(BEST BET)
Port Adelaide to bt Essendon
2 at 2.12
+2.24
Essendon have renewed confidence after
beating Hawthorn last week, although they will miss the experience of
Welsh and Dyson. Port bring in some extra goal kicking and run, and
Williams has a good record against Knights. The bookies have really not
given Port their dues – their two losses this year have been against
Brisbane and Geelong. Bet 2 units on Port to win.
West Coast v Hawthorn
NO PLAY
The Hawks keep disappointing and leave me
wondering week after week if they will go down as one-hit wonders. They
were savage at selection after last week’s poor effort and have brought
in some younger legs for the big spaces at Subiaco. West Coast lose some
experience but get Nicoski in. Hard to tell who will show up here, and
the line is too close to call, so NO PLAY
Collingwood -28.5 v Nth Melb.
1 at 1.97
+0.97
The ‘Pies lose a couple of good players,
while North make no changes. Both teams are coming off strong wins last
week. North tend to lose big against good teams, and Collingwood tend to
win big against mediocre teams, so bet 1 unit on Collingwood -28.5
points
Brisbane v Fremantle Either Team under 15.5
1 at 3.30
+2.3
Brisbane have several changes this week,
with several key defenders out, and are coming off two away losses, so
will be happy to be home against a team who have never won at the Gabba.
But Freo are a very different team this year (and a bargain for the flag
at $18), so expect them to be far more competitive. Bet 1 unit on either
team <15.5 points.
Adelaide v Richmond
NO PLAY
Again, Richmond have made a huge number of
changes, and get a few top players back, but Foley and Cousins both
continue to struggle with injury. You have to wonder if it really makes
a difference who they play. Adelaide make no changes to a winless
combination. Both teams will fancy this as their chance to get off the
mark, but it’s really a question of whether the Tigers can stay in the
game or get totally blown away. I can’t decide what will happen in this
thrilling 15th vs 16th encounter, so NO PLAY.
St Kilda v Carlton
Total Points over 172.5
1 at 1.90
+0.9
St Kilda will get extra run from the
inclusion of Gram, while Carlton bring in some experience. The Saints
won a scrappy, low scoring encounter last week, while Carlton were
blasted away by Collingwood, which isn’t necessarily representative of
their season form. The line seems overly generous to Carlton, but I’d
rather play safe on that. This will be a far higher scoring affair than
last week, so bet 1 unit on Total Points Scored going over.
AFL ROUND SIX
Western Bulldogs v St Kilda Either Team under 15.5
1 at 3.15
+2.15
The Saints are coming off a surprise loss
last week and it's still unclear how they will settle in to life without
Riewoldt. The Bulldogs will get extra run from the return of Hargrave.
Both sides like this ground, and have played some close games. Bet 1
unit on Either Team <15.5 points.
Nth Melbourne v Melbourne
Either Team under 15.5
1 at 3.15
-1
Nothing significant at selection for North,
and Melbourne continue with the same winning combination. North are
starting to show some of the improvement expected of them, while the
Demons are brimming with confidence with three wins on the trot that may
have some fans changing their ski plans for this winter. While North
have the clear advantage at this venue, this will probably be far closer
than last time, so Bet 1 unit on Either Team <15.5 points.
Adelaide +11.5 v Port Adel.
1 at 1.92
-1
Adelaide are still reeling from injuries
with Dangerfield and Knights out, and will be pleased that at least Bock
is back, while there are no significant selection changes at Port.
Adelaide's losses have all been to teams in the top 9 (whatever that
is), and success is not far. A rivalry game is just what they need to
get some spark back. Bet 1 unit on Adelaide +11.5 points
Hawthorn -13.5 v Essendon
2 at 1.93
-2
Neither of these teams expected to be
1-4 for this rematch. Essendon will miss Pears and Reimers and have
brought in some mature bodies for what should be a very physical
contest. Hawthorn are a better team than their record, and aside from a
few bursts, will seek to punish a patchy Essendon. Bet 2 units on
Hawthorn -14.5 or better points (BEST BET)
Brisbane +12.5 v Sydney
2 at 1.93
-2
That a solid defender like Richards has
only just made it into the team speaks volumes to Sydney's form this
year, and Bradshaw plays against his old team. Brisbane get lots of run
with their inclusions, and Brown insists that he is playing. These are
both very good teams this year, and Voss has the wood on Roos in their
two meetings. Bet 2 units on Brisbane +12.5 points
Richmond +59.5 v Geelong
1 at 1.93
-1
Geelong hammered Port (and the line) in
their only home game this season, after which they played a shocker
against Carlton, and Port beat the almighty Saints. Go figure. The
selection revolving door continues at Richmond, although this week all
because of injury. Despite winning a quarter last week (for the second
time this season), and covering the line for the first time, they are
rewarded with a 60.5 point line. Way too high in my opinion, and with G
Ablett missing, bet 1 unit on Richmond +59.5 points.
Carlton v Collingwood
NO PLAY
Carlton will have an even more inflated
view of themselves after last week - Judd is firing and their midfield
has plenty of depth, although they will miss Walker. Collingwood seem to
be the real deal, and may end up with no changes to their winning
combination. Hard to tell who will dominate before another blockbuster
crowd, and these games have been known to blow out either way. NO PLAY.
West Coast +16.5 v Fremantle
1 at 1.92
-1
In the second derby of the
non-really-rivalry round, both teams have added a mix of experience and
youth to their squads. While Freo have clear ascendancy in their recent
battles, I reckon West Coast is better than their form indicates. Is
this enough for them to cover the line? Bet 1 unit on West Coast +16.5
points.
AFL ROUND FIVE
Adelaide +38.5 v Bulldogs
1 at 1.90
-1
Both sides are not playing as well as what
we all expected. The Dogs get back Johnson and Aka and have added
Roughead for his first game and Grant. The Crows get back Van Berlo and
new boy Hendersen. I can’t quite believe how bad the crows have been
playing and think they might turn the corner soon. Bet 1 unit on
Adeladie +37.5 or better.
Melbourne v Brisbane
NO PLAY
The Dees coming off consecutive wins and
unlucky not be three have made no changes. Now there is a sign of
confidence. Not surprisingly there are no priority draft picks available
this year. (bad luck Tigers). The Lions have 3 good inclusions in Mc
Grath, Clark and Black but lose Power with a hip injury. There was some
early speculation that J Brown may miss but he clarified on the footy
show that he would play. Line looks close so no play.
West Coast +31.5 v Sydney
2 at 1.91
-2
The Swans will miss might mouse Mc Glynn
but the WCE lose Kerr and surprised a lot of people by dropping Hansen.
Hurn is back from suspension and will add some run and long kicking from
defence. Traditionally close games so bet 2 unit West Coast +30.5 or
better. (BEST BET)
Port Adelaide +22.5 v St Kilda
1 at 1.92
+0.92
Port v Saints Port looked ok in the first
half last week until the Cats put on the after burners and kicked 11
goals in the 3rd quarter. Port has made 4 changes where as the Saints
have included Koschitzke from suspension for the injured Gram. Saints
are flying even without Riedwoldt but Port is always hard to beat at
home. Bet 1 unit Port Adelaide +21.5 or better
Essendon +23.5 vs Collingw'd
1 at 1.96
-1
The traditional ANZAC day match is already
a sell out and it should be a ripper. The Pies lose Presti to injury and
the Bombers have 4 good inclusions in Stanton, Monfries, Mc Veigh and
Davey. The Pies are coming off belting an undermanned Hawks. The Bombers
return after a flogging in WA. However they did play much better in the
last quarter when the game was well and truly over. If they carry that
form into this week they could be a chance in this game. Play safe bet 1
unit Bombers +21.5 or better.
Richmond +50.5 v Fremantle
1 at 1.90
+0.9
Dockers v Tigers The Dockers went down in a
thriller to St Kilda last week added Palmer, Bradley and new boy Fyfe to
and expanded interchange bench. The Tigers coming off a loss to the Dees
have added 6 players to there squad, including experienced players
Cousins, Mc Guane, Foley and captain Newman. I feel like gambling on
this game so bet 1 unit on Tigers +48.5 or better and lets hope we are a
chance in the last quarter. If not have an early night because the game
starts at 8:45pm in the Eastern States.
Kangaroos +21.5 v Hawthorn
1 at 1.90
+0.9
Hawks v Kangs Buddy and Sewell are big
inclusions for the Hawks coming off the belting dished out by the Pies
last week. The Kangs have included Ben Cunnington for his first game.
The Kangs were very competitive until half time last week before the
swans took control and overran them in the 2nd half. Hawks play well
here but they are not playing well. Bet 1 unit Kangaroos +20.5 or
better.
Carlton +29.5 v Geelong
1 at 1.91
+0.91
Blues v Cats The Blues are full of
confidence following the win in Adelaide last week have included Hadley,
Mc Lean and Waite. The Cats steam rolled the Power in the second half
last week. Once again the line looks big so happy to gamble 1 unit on
Carlton +28.5 or better.
AFL ROUND FOUR
West Coast -10.5 v Essendon
1 at 1.98
+0.98
West Coast, searching for their first win
after some difficult games are at home, against an Essendon bolstered by
the return of Hurley, but missing Stanton. The Bombers haven't
historically done well out west, and it's still hard to pick the form of
either team. I'm not inspired by Essendon's win last week, and reckon
they will struggle. Bet 1 unit on WC -10.5 points.
Sydney -11.5 v North Melb.
2 at 1.93
+1.86
No changes to either team after wins
last week. North are still a very unknown quantity, while Sydney are one
of the big improvers this year and should continue their form with a
strong win. Bet 2 units on Sydney -11.5 points.
(BEST BET)
Adelaide to bt Carlton
1 at 1.82
-1
Adelaide's run of injuries continue with
Bock and Hentschel out, and question marks over a couple of players who
may be playing despite injuries last week. The return of Johncock will
soften these losses somewhat. Carlton also have several key players out,
and finally get back "trigger point" Judd for his first game of the
year. But like last week, this is one of those team matchups that spells
Ratten nightmare, so expect Adelaide to break through for their first
win. Bet 1 unit on Adelaide to win.
Collingwood v Hawthorn
Either Team under 15.5
1 at 3.20
-1
Johnson & Shaw return for Collingwood to
give them some good run off half-back after last week's disappointing
performance, while Hawthorn will certainly miss Franklin and Gibson.
After two losses to top teams, it's hard to tell where Hawthorn stand
this year. This will probably be a tight struggle, so Bet 1 unit on
Either Team < 15.5 points.
Brisbane v Western Bulldogs
Either Team under 15.5
1 at 3.15
-1
Brisbane will miss regulars McGrath and
Clark but good to have Brennan back, while the 'Dogs are slightly
weakened by their forced changes this week. Bulldogs have done well at
the Gabba. This will be a good test for both teams, and should be a
great game. Bet 1 unit on Either Team < 15.5 points.
Richmond u39.5 v Melbourne
0.5 at 4.25
-0.5
Ahhh, what can we say? After yet another
team scandal, Richmond seem to be scraping the barrel of kids, and it's
only round 4. Melbourne are finally showing that they might be on an
upward trend, and have made no changes to their winning combination.
Richmond to cover the line seems quite tantalizing, but my best value
here is a long shot. Bet 0.5 units on Richmond to win by <39.5 points.
Geelong -36.5 v Port Adelaide
1 at 1.93
+0.93
In recent years, Geelong have been regular
strong winners at home, and have consistently covered the line there.
They get back several key players after their surprise loss last week,
and will be keen to stamp their authority. Port get back some regulars
and are still an unknown quantity this year. Bet 1 unit on Geel -36.5
points
St Kilda v Fremantle
NO PLAY
1 vs 2 on the ladder. Two unbeaten teams;
one of them wearing purple. St Kilda are without Riewoldt for most of
the season, and still without Kosi, Freo come off a huge win against
Geelong, and welcome back Palmer, Tarrant, and some others, but only
just broke through with a win at Etihad Stadium, which the Saints love
to play at, and Harvey has a poor record against Lyon. You’d think Freo
would cover the line, but stay safe and NO PLAY
AFL ROUND THREE
St Kilda v Collingwood
NO PLAY
Emphatic win last week from the Saints and
a surprise for Collingwood who just got over the line. St Kilda bring
back some experienced players, and while the ‘Pies will miss some run
off half back, they get back Presti. You’d think Collingwood would be
able to cover the line, but I’m not confident of it so NO PLAY.
West Coast -15.5 v Nth Melb.
1 at 2.80
-1
Hard to gauge where North stand after two
losses against a team that may be a huge improver, and a top team. The
Eagles are equally hard to get a handle on, and will welcome back Le
Cras. Best value I can find is to Bet 1 unit on West Coast > 15.5 points
Port Adelaide v Brisbane
Either Team under 15.5
1 at 3.20
-1
This will be a good test for two unbeaten
teams. Brisbane have a good record at AAMI, although they will miss
Brennan and Adcock in the midfield. Should be a close one, so Bet 1 unit
on Either Team <15.5 points
Sydney -39.5 v Richmond
2 at 1.91
+1.82
Sydney look to be a significantly better
team than last year, and have a record of strong wins against Richmond
at their home ground. The Tigers have been savage at selection, and will
miss Thursfield up the back. The line is too flattering, so in what may
become a recurring theme this season, Bet 2 units on Sydney -40.5 or
better points. (BEST BET)
Essendon +15.5 v Carlton
1 at 1.92
+0.92
Essendon will be desperate for a good
showing after two disappointing losses, with only patches of their good
form from last year - they have reacted accordingly in selection, and
will also miss a couple with injuries. Carlton seem to think they have
the formula right, and certainly won’t be under the same pressure they
felt against Brisbane. Despite all of this, Essendon seem to have the
wood over them, so Bet 1 unit on Essendon +14.5 or better points
Adelaide -13.5 v Melbourne
1 at 1.99
-1
While disappointed with the result,
Melbourne will be heartened by their endeavour, and seem to be in the
road towards some wins. Adelaide have been a big disappointment so far,
and we have to wonder if they have fallen away from last year’s good
form, or this is just a short term thing. These are the shortest odds
Melbourne have seen for a long time, so Bet 1 unit on Adelaide -13.5
points
Bulldogs -13.5 v Hawthorn
1 at 1.92
+0.92
Hawthorn are coming off a bruising
encounter and a short break, while the ‘Dogs didn’t have to try hard for
a big win. At their favoured Etihad Stadium, they will probably have too
much for the Hawks, so Bet 1 unit on WB -13.5 points
Fremantle v Geelong
NO PLAY
Here is a top of the table clash with a
difference. Tough game for Geelong last week, three forced changes, and
now a long trip out west (although they have done well there). Yet Freo
would be brimming with confidence, and their fans will be right behind
them in a big way. No strong feeling on this, so NO PLAY.
AFL ROUND TWO
Carlton +20.5 v Brisbane
1 at 1.92
+0.92
Brisbane were impressive last week as they
steamrolled a spirited West Coast; Carlton far less so in a firm
drubbing of an insipid and inexperienced Richmond. More than playing
against Fev, the fourth quarter fade and loss in last year’s final will
be strong in Carlton’s mind, and they will put up a strong performance.
Bet 1 unit on Carlton +20.5 points.
Collingwood -44.5 v Melbourne
2 at 1.92
-2
Collingwood were very impressive in
their opening win against the possibly hungover 'Dogs. The clashes
between these traditional Easter rivals haven't been quite so close in
recent years, so expect the in-form 'Pies to be rampant. Bet 2 units on
Collingwood -45.5 points. (BEST BET)
Nth Melb. +36.5 vs St Kilda
2 at 1.92
-2
The Saints played out a tough one against
Sydney last week and came away with the points. North look like they
might be big improvers this year, and last week attempted a come from
(quite far) behind win, but fell short. They have done well in the past
against St Kilda, particularly at this venue, and I think the line
doesn't give them due credit. Bet 2 units on North Melbourne +36.5
points
West Coast v Port Adelaide
NO PLAY
Last week Port Adelaide held off a
challenge from North, while the Eagles were overrun. Neither side are a
known quantity as yet this season, and the line is very close, so NO
PLAY.
Adelaide v Sydney
NO PLAY
Adelaide get back a few players, and will
want to get a win under their belt at home, where they generally do
well, and particularly against Sydney, who put up a good fight against
the Saints last week to only just fall short. While Adelaide should win,
there isn’t much value in the line, so NO PLAY.
Essendon vs Fremantle
Total Match Points ov 197.5
1 at 1.90
-1
Essendon are probably better than last
week, and with an unbeaten record against Fremantle at Etihad Stadium,
they will feel confident of a win. Who would’ve thought Freo would notch
up the equal highest winning margin in Round 1 (I got that one very
wrong)? They are clearly improved, but will this be enough to get them a
win? I think not, but the line of 14.5 is too close to call. If you can
get set, Bet 1 unit on Total Points Scored going over 1 points.
W. Bulldogs -44.5 vs Richmond
2 at 1.92
+1.84
If there's anything worse than another poor
showing against an arch-rival in Round 1, it's coming up against a
genuine top team on the rebound from a surprise loss. The Bulldogs will
be out to show that they are more than just night finalists, and
Richmond will have very little to stop them. Bet 2 units on Western
Bulldogs -45.5 points.
Hawthorn vs Geelong
Either Team under 15.5
1 at 3.20
+2.20
A strong win for Geelong last week, and a
routine drubbing of a weak Melbourne for a still undermanned Hawthorn,
who get back a few key players this week. These teams play close games,
and expect Hawthorn to cover the line, but for better value, Bet 1 unit
on Either Team <15.5 points.
AFL ROUND ONE
Richmond vs Carlton
HF/FT Richmond/Carlton
0.5 at 7.25
-0.5
Total Match Points u191.5
1 at 1.91
+0.91
This is far from the blockbuster opener
that was anticipated last year. Richmond have adjusted their
expectations, have a new and very different coach, and a huge gap in
experience from last year, as they debut 4 youngsters. Carlton are
missing a couple of big names, and may not have the scoring power of
last year, although they may well find plenty of avenues to goal with
their smaller forwards. Richmond will come out hard but are unlikely to
be able to maintain that for the entire game. The line of only 17.5 is
too close to pick.
Geelong -26.5 v Essendon
1 at 1.92
+0.92
Geelong are close
to full strength, and Essendon are hoping to carry forward some of their
good progress from last year. But Geelong's midfield have been very
dominant against the 'Dons, and on a pleasant summer's night at the 'G
should lead to a strong win. Bet 1 unit on Geel -27.5 or better
Melbourne v Hawthorn
NO PLAY
Both teams riddled
with injuries. After a disappointing last year, there are still question
marks about Hawthorn and how long it might take them to hit their
straps. Hard to know where either side will kick a winning score from,
so while Hawthorn to cover the line, and under on Total Points Scored
are tempting, there is sufficient doubt to stay away. NO PLAY.
Sydney v St Kilda
Either Team under 15.5
2 at 3.35
+4.7
Sydney are headed
in the right direction, with added pace, and the Saints will continue
where they left off (at the preliminary final, that is). These teams
play close tight games, and while Sydney to cover the line is good, I
think the tri-bet is better value. Bet 2 units on Either Team <15.5
points (BEST BET)
West Coast +21.5 v Brisbane
1 at 1.96
-1
Brisbane have a new
look forward line, and it remains to be seen whether Fev can complement
it in the same way Bradshaw did. The 'experts' are saying that West
Coast are turning things around with an improved midfield and the freaky
Naitanui. In recent years, they have done surprisingly well at the
Gabba, which is about the longest road trip in football, so the line
looks reasonable value. Bet 1 unit on West Coast +21.5 points
Port Adelaide v North Melb
NO PLAY
Both teams have had
reasonable pre-seasons. North are expecting their young brigade to have
improved a lot since last season, but will miss Petrie up front. That
said, they have done surprisingly well at AAMI, but the line of 16.5 is
just a bit too close for comfort. NO PLAY.
W. Bulldogs v Collingwood
Either Team under 15.5
1 at 3.20
-1
Total Match Points over 193.5
1 at 1.90
+0.90
The Dogs are
looking very exciting with Hall as big target - he seems to be just the
tonic their fast running game has been missing. Collingwood made some
good trades in the offseason, based on the view that they are very close
to serious contention. This should be a good close game, so bet 1 unit
on Either Team < 15.5 points, and 1 unit on Total Match Points >194.5
or better.
Adelaide -15.5 v Fremantle
2 at 2.65
-2
Amazingly, this
game is the only one of the round with anything approaching even odds.
This is despite Freo being, well, Freo, and Adelaide expecting to
continue and possibly improve on a strong but sometimes patchy season
last year. The home ground advantage just isn't enough, as the Crows do
quite well in the west. Bet 2 units on Crows >15.5 points.
2010 BRITISH OPEN
Tiger Woods 4.50
Lee Westwood 13.00
Phil Mickelson 15.00
P Harrington 17.00
Rory Mcilroy 17.00
Ernie Els 21.00
Ian Poulter 31.00
Adam Scott 34.00
Anthony Kim 34.00
Paul Casey 34.00
Martin Kaymer 34.00
Sergio Garcia 41.00
Jim Furyk 41.00
Geoff Ogilvy 41.00
Luke Donald 41.00
Retief Goosen 41.00
Hunter Mahan 41.00
Steve Stricker 41.00
Ross Fisher 41.00
G Mcdowell 41.00
+1.84
-1
OZ
'10 GOLF MAJORS
