|
|
WEEKLY AFL PICKS .. with OnThePunt's Aussie
Rules Guru
ARCHIVE |
|
AFL ROUND TWENTY-ONE |
A few emails arrived to the inbox this
week from some disgruntled followers of the AFL Guru. The results over
the past few weeks have not pleased me either, but I doubt anyone can
boast a record as good as 2007 - in particular the best bet. We all have
good and bad periods and we will bounce back you can be assured of that.
Just remember OnThePunt provides theses tips free of charge and
most of you have enjoyed some nice returns over the period. The stock
market is also taking a beating over the past few months. Hang in there
we will get back on track.
Looks a bad round for betting with five matches meaning nothing for both
sides. Only Collingwood v Sydney, Geelong v North Melbourne and St Kilda
v Adelaide having any interest for me. The prices all look about right
in these games so no bets this week we wait for a better opportunity
next week. |
|
Bulldogs vs Essendon |
NO PLAY |
|
The Bulldogs have made no changes to the
team that lost to Brisbane last week and they have only won one game in
their last five this year so I am concerned about their form. Essendon
have made five changes, all due to injury - Fletcher (groin) Dempsey
(broken leg) Jetta (hip) Laycock (ankle) Hille (broken hand) and have
included Bellchambers, Johnson, McVeigh, Hooker and Hocking. The Bombers
are fielding their most inexperienced side of the year and I find it
hard to see how they will be able to match it with the Bulldogs. The
Bulldogs won the earlier game in round 4 by 30 points and I think the
result here could be a blow out if the Doggies get their running game up
and going earlier on the fast Telstra Dome surface. I suspect the Dogs
will run away with the game and gain some confidence going into the
finals series but no bet for me. |
|
Richmond vs Fremantle |
NO PLAY |
|
Not a lot of interest in this game for me
either, the Tigers get back Foley for Polo. The Tigers played great last
week after a couple of bad losses the previous weeks. Fremantle fell
over when they were expected to win last week. The Dockers have only one
win on the road this year. I just don’t think I can trust the Tigers at
about 1.35 or at the line of 19.5 so no bet for me. |
|
Port Adelaide vs Melbourne |
NO PLAY |
|
Both sides made four changes. Current form
is not relevant and no real interest in the game. From a betting point
of view it looks impossible to bet so just don’t get involved. |
|
Brisbane vs Carlton |
NO PLAY |
|
Brisbane has included Corrie and Hanley
for Begley and Proud whilst Carlton has included Bower and Houlihan for
Wiggins and Saddington. Brisbane came from behind last week against the
Bulldogs to record the first win in a month. Carlton is coming of a
belting at the hands of the in-form North Melbourne. There has been
plenty of money around for Brisbane which tells me someone is out of the
Carlton team. Carlton looks over the odds but I am waiting until the
final teams before I have a bet here. |
|
Collingwood vs Sydney |
NO PLAY |
|
Collingwood has included Wellingham after
losing Thomas with a calf injury. Sydney lost lots of experience in
dropping Ablett, Fosdike and Malceski for Barry, Jack and Veszpremi. On
the back of the doubt on Thomas there was some early money around for
Sydney but Collingwood has won the last five matches between the sides
and Sydney’s form has been terrible. The Swans have only two wins from
its past seven matches and they were against Carlton (by 2 points) and
Fremantle (by 4 points). Collingwood has proven to lose when favourite
and win as underdog so I have decided not to get involved either way
here. |
|
Geelong vs Kangaroos |
NO PLAY |
|
Geelong has included Milburn, Chapman and
Scarlett to their expanded interchange bench. North Melbourne surprised
by including Mc Intosh, Lower, N Thompson and S Thompson and dropping
Brown. Both teams are in great form with North Melbourne winning their
last six games in a row and the Cats winning their last eleven in a row.
The Cats have recorded only one loss for the year and generally belt
sides but North Melbourne did beat them down at Skilled Stadium back in
Round Five in 2007 and ran them to 13 points in Round Eleven earlier
this year. I think Geelong can cover the line but I have to show some
respect to North Melbourne’s form so no bet for me. |
|
St. Kilda vs Adelaide |
NO PLAY |
|
St Kilda surprised by naming Milne and
including Birss, Allen and X Clarke to and expanded interchange bench.
Adelaide included Knights, Otten and Tippet to its expanded interchange
bench. Both sides have found some form over the past month with Adelaide
winning its last four matches and St Kilda winning six from its last
eight matches. I marked St Kilda slight favourites at home so I don’t
see any value betting either side here. |
|
West Coast vs Hawthorn |
NO PLAY |
|
West Coast made four changes and Worsfold
says they aren’t tanking but I find it impossible to have a bet even
with Hodge (suspension) and Campbell (virus) missing for the Hawks.
Don’t want to get involved either way so it might be better to go to a
movie late Sunday afternoon. |
|
AFL ROUND TWENTY |
|
Port Adel. vs Collingwood |
NO PLAY |
|
Port Adelaide included Boak, Lade and M
Westhoff for Deluca, Stewart and Salter. Collingwood dropped Wellingham
for O’Bree. Port has only won 1 game in its last 9 games and they have
only won 2 games at AAMI for the year. They have finished for the year
and are experimenting with players and not fussed whether they win or
lose at this stage of the year. Collingwood bounced back last week after
a horrible week to beat a disappointing St Kilda. Collingwood have not
been that impressive but should be too good for Port if they want to
play finals in 2008 but no bet for me. |
|
Essendon vs Adelaide |
NO PLAY |
|
Essendon has included Peverill for Magin whilst Adelaide included first
gamer Dangerfield and Reilly for the injured Vince and dropped Otten.
Essendon produced its worst 1st half of the past 2 months last week
against West Coast but were much better in the 2nd half to go down by 10
points. Adelaide has managed to win their last 3 matches after losing
its previous 5 matches this season. Adelaide won the earlier match in
the year at AAMI by 5 points on a wet Friday night game. I don’t think
there will be a lot in the game either way but think Adelaide deserve to
be slight favourites so no bet for me. |
|
Melbourne vs West Coast |
NO PLAY |
|
All the money has been for Melbourne who is coming off a 116 belting by
Geelong last week. West Coast has its 4 wins for the year and all the
punters think that’s enough and want to hold onto their priority pick.
Melbourne inclusions look ok with Jamar, Miller, Newton and Bell in for
Dunn, White, C Johnson and Carroll. Melbourne with 2 wins on the board
for 2008 by 6 points over Fremantle and by 1 point over Brisbane are the
1.67 favourite. West Coast lost Hansen and Wirrpanda to injury and
included Ebert and Notte plus all of West Coast’s wins have been at
Subiaco. I suspect the punters have probably got it right and Melbourne
should win but no bet for me. |
|
Brisbane vs Bulldogs |
NO PLAY |
|
Brisbane included Macdonald, Moody and Copeland for Drummond, Notting
and Henderson. The Western Bulldogs included Hill and Hudson for Tiller
and Street. Brisbane has only one win (against West Coast) in its last 6
matches so their form is not good plus there is some doubt on Bradshaw
playing. The Bulldogs have only one win from its last 3 matches so their
form is no great either but they have won their last 5 games against
Brisbane including the last 3 at the Gabba. Brisbane has won 7 of its 9
games at the Gabba including the last 6 in a row so hard to make a case
to bet either side, so no bet for me. |
|
Sydney vs Geelong |
NO PLAY |
|
Sydney included Fosdike, Buchanan and Malceski (who replaced Barry on
Friday afternoon) for Brennan, Jack and Veszpremi. The Cats made no
change to the side that belted Melbourne by 116 points last week. The
Swans has only won 2 of their last 6 matches and they were only by 2
points against Carlton and 4 points over Fremantle last week. The Cats
have won their last 10 matches since their 86 point loss to Collingwood
in round 9. In those matches the winning margin has been 59 points or
more in 8 of those matches. The Cats have played at ANZ Stadium only
once in 2006 for a 22 point loss to Sydney. I expect Geelong to win the
game and cover the line but Sydney doesn’t get belted often in Sydney so
happy to watch this game and no bet for me. |
|
Hawthorn -30.5 vs Richmond |
3 at 1.91 |
 |
-3 |
|
The Tigers included Schulz, Cartledge and Connors for Pattinson (back),
Brown (hip) and dropped King. The Hawks have included Osborne for
Stokes. The Hawks have won 4 from its last 6 games this year and scored
two big wins over the last 2 weeks. The Tigers has won 3 from its last 6
games this year but has lost their last 2 games by 63 points. The Hawks
only beat the Tigers by 12 points in round 6 earlier in the year but
they did have 34 shots at goal to the Tigers 19 and Buddy kicked 1 goal
7 points. The Tigers has lost the last 3 times against the Hawks with
their last win back in 2005. I think the Hawks will be far too strong
and expect them to run out easy winners. Bet 3 units on Hawks -30.5 or
better (BEST BET) |
|
Carlton vs Kangaroos |
NO PLAY |
|
Carlton made no changes to the side that belted Port Adelaide by 66
points last week. North Melbourne lost N Thompson with an ankle injury
and dropped Lower for Brown and Simpson. North Melbourne has won its
last 5 matches this year and is looking to sneak into 4th spot on the
ladder if the form continues. Carlton’s form is not bad with 5 wins and
4 losses from its last 9 games. Two of the losses were about 6 goals but
the other two losses were by 2 points to Sydney at Telstra Dome and by 8
points to Adelaide at AAMI which you could argue are creditable losses.
I think the price loos right with North Melbourne slight favourites so
no bet for me. |
|
Fremantle vs St. Kilda |
NO PLAY |
|
Fremantle lost Tarrant and Carr to injury and included Farmer and
Grover. The Saints lost Fiora to suspension and dropped Geary for
Gardiner and R Clarke. Fremantle has hit some for late in the season
when winning 3 from its last four games only losing to Sydney by 4
points last week. .Likewise St Kilda has won 5 of its last 7 matches but
they have lost 2 from their last 3 matches. Fremantle has only won 5
matches from 19 matches this year but they have lost 7 matches by 9
points or less. I am a little concerned about the Saints running out the
game on the big Subiaco oval but they have not been belted this year and
might get to a good price by Sunday if all the favourites win. No bet at
this stage. |
|
AFL ROUND NINETEEN |
|
Melbourne vs Geelong |
NO PLAY |
|
Melbourne lost Davey, Bell and Garland to injury and included Carroll,
Frawley and Jones. The Cats lost Milburn to suspension and left out
Varcoe for Ablett and Byrnes. The Cats won the earlier clash at Skilled
Stadium by 30 points after the line was set initially around 75 points.
The line in this game range from 57.5 to 60.5 but the Cats have been
belting sides. I think the Cats can cover the line but it looks a little
risky with showers also forecast, so no bet for me. |
|
Carlton vs Port Adelaide |
NO PLAY |
|
Carlton has dropped Austin for Saddington whilst Port included some
experience with P Burgoyne, Chaplin and White for Bentley, Lonie and
Thurstans. Port has only won one game in their past 8 matches with the
only win being against Adelaide. I think Port has packed up for the year
so I expect Carlton to win this game. The Port players on the ground
will be trying and the line looks right so no bet for me. |
|
Hawthorn vs Brisbane |
NO PLAY |
|
The Hawks bounced back after consecutive losses to beat Collingwood by
54 points week and made no changes for this week match. Brisbane has
only won one game in its last 5 matches and that was against West Coast
at the Gabba. The Lions lost Clark with a quad injury and dropped Corrie
and Clouston for Henderson, Notting and Hawksley. The Hawks will be
looking for a big win to celebrate Crawford’s 300th game and I don’t
think the Lions are capable of spoiling the party. I suspect Brown,
Black, Power and Bradshaw are carrying minor injuries and they have not
been at their best in the past month. The line looks about right so no
bet for me. |
|
Collingwood vs St. Kilda |
NO PLAY |
|
Collingwood lost O’Bree with a hip injury and suspended Didak and H Shaw
plus dropped Lonie and Wellingham. They included two first gamers Chris
Dawes and John McCarthy plus Cook, Stanley and Wakelin. The Saints lost
Ball with a hamstring and included Hudghton. The Saints struggled to
beat and undermanned Port last week so I’m not convinced they can beat
Collingwood. Likewise the Magpies are struggling but I expect
Collingwood to show something after what the club has been through
during the week. No confidence in either side so no bet for me. |
|
Fremantle +15.5 vs Sydney |
2 at 1.90 |
 |
+1.80 |
|
The Swans dropped Ablett, Brabazon, and White for Barry, Goodes and
Moore. Fremantle lost Farmer to suspension, Mc Manus to retirement and
dropped Murphy for Hayden, Browne and Campbell. The Swans have only one
win from its last 5 matches but they won 8 out of the last 10 matches
against Fremantle. Fremantle have not played that well at the SCG with
their last win dating back to 1996. Fremantle has hit some form winning
their last 3 games in a row, the three weeks before that they lost to
Geelong by 74 points at Skilled Stadium (no disgrace), lost to St Kilda
by 8 points at Telstra Dome and Essendon by 4 points at Subiaco. Bet 2
units on Fremantle at +14.5 or better. |
|
Kangaroos vs Bulldogs |
NO PLAY |
|
North Melbourne included Thompson, Lower and Simpson to its expanded
interchange squad. The Bulldogs included Callan, Street and Ward to its
expanded interchange squad. North Melbourne has won its past 4 matches
this year and did beat the Bulldogs by 3 points after Brad Johnson
missed a set shot after the final siren. The Bulldogs bounced back after
a slow start over Sydney last week after coming off consecutive losses
to Geelong and Carlton. North Melbourne seems capable of winning when we
least expect them and they are some chance in this game. The Bulldogs
may rest some players based on Rodney Eade’s comments earlier in the
week so we need to be careful until the final teams are known. North
Melbourne has won the last 4 matches between the sides and 6 out of the
last 10 between the sides. I think the Bulldogs deserve to be slight
favourites and that’s what the bookies came up with so no bet for me. |
|
Adelaide vs Richmond |
NO PLAY |
|
The Crows have lost two key players in Porplyzia and Knights to injury.
They have included Johncock, Otten, Petrenko, Stevens, Reilly and
Tippett to its expanded interchange squad. The Tigers get back N Brown,
Cartledge and Tivendale to its expanded interchange squad. Adelaide has
won 9 out of its last 10 games against the Tigers, but the Tigers are
probably playing their best football in years so I expect them to put up
a better show against an Adelaide side missing a number of their stars.
The Crows have won their last 2 games in 2008 but before that they lost
5 games in a row. I expect the Crows to get up for Andrew McLeod’s 300th
game but the Tigers do have some chance. I think the price looks about
right so no bet for me. |
|
Essendon -13.5 vs West Coast |
3 at 1.91 |
 |
-3 |
|
West Coast has only won 3 matches for the year and lost Staker and Ebert
to worsen their injury crisis. West Coast has named 7 players on the
interchange bench that I hardly recognise so that doesn’t fill me with
any confidence. Essendon has hit some form winning 6 from its last 7
games this year. The Bombers lost Reimers with a hamstring and included
Dempsey, Hocking, Lucas and Magin to its expanded interchange squad. I
think both teams have different agenda’s one looking for wins and the
other just ticking over. Bet 3 units on Essendon -14.5 or better
(BEST BET). |
|
AFL ROUND EIGHTEEN |
|
Collingwood vs Hawthorn |
NO PLAY |
|
Collingwood left out R Shaw (back),
Wakelin (rested), Johnson and Wood for Fraser, Goldsack, Lonie and
Toovey. The Hawks get Crawford and Dew back for the injured Osborne and
they dropped Tuck. Collingwood has won 2 from its last 6 games in 2008;
likewise the Hawks have only won 2 from its last 5 games. Both sides are
capable of playing better it’s just a matter of knowing when to bet on
them. Collingwood was in similar form earlier in the year and managed to
win 4 games in a row, including the 86 point win over Geelong. The Hawks
won the round 7 match against Collingwood by 65 points when Franklin and
Roughead dominated. Collinwood can win but don’t have any confidence in
betting either side here. |
|
Essendon vs Melbourne |
NO PLAY |
|
The Bombers have turned things around from
Round 12 with 5 wins from its last 6 games. Their only loss was to the
Tigers by 4 points in Round 16. The Demons have only 2 wins for the year
by 1 point over Brisbane in Round 14 and Fremantle in Round 7 so I find
it hard to suggest they can win here. The Bombers welcome back Lovett
from a club imposed suspension for the injured Lucas. The Demons
surprised by dropping Jones and Newton and lost Miller with a hamstring
and included Green, Wheatley and Wonaeamirri. The Bombers have been very
attacking and don’t see any reason why the game plan will change here
but no bet for me. |
|
Adelaide vs Carlton |
NO PLAY |
|
The Crows included Massie for Tippett and
the Blues included Armfield for Hartlett. The Crows are coming off a
horror run of form with a good win of Sydney at the SCG last week. The
Crows have only won one game from its last 6 games in 2008. The Blues
continue to improve in 2008 with a good come from behind win against
Western Bulldogs last week. I don’t have a lot of confidence in betting
Adelaide at home but I thought we might have got a better price for
Carlton travelling to AAMI. I think Carlton is on the up and Adelaide on
the way down so if I had to bet it would be on the Blues but the price
looks a bit skinny at AAMI so no bet for me. |
|
Geelong -30.5 vs Richmond |
2 at 1.92 |
 |
+1.84 |
|
The Cats continue on their winning ways
with an 11 point win over the Hawks last week without, Ablett, Ling,
Wojcinski, Milburn and Chapman after half time. The Cats welcome back
Milburn and Ling for Chapman who is injured and D Johnson. The Tigers
made no changes to the side that beat Brisbane by 3 points last week.
The Tigers has won 5 from its last 6 games this year. However all the
wins have been against the bottom sides on the ladder the only side in
the Top 8 they have beaten was Brisbane last week. Geelong has been the
bench mark for the past 18 months and Richmond has only beat the Cats
once in their last 11 matches so I don’t see any reason why this match
will be any different. Bet 2 units on Geelong -31.5 or better. (BEST
BET) |
|
Brisbane -6.5 vs Kangaroos |
2 at 1.96 |
 |
-2 |
|
North Melbourne has included Brown and
dropped Goldstein. The Lions have included Begely, Hooper, Clouston and
Proud for Collier, Stiller, Notting and Copeland. North has won 4 from
its last 5 games this year including the last 3 in a row. Brisbane has
been struggling winning only one game from its last four games this
year. This is the last game for North at Carrara and suspect Brisbane
will be up for the game. Brisbane did win the round 7 clash at the Gabba
by 31 points and I don’t see any reason why this game will be any
different. Bet 2 units Brisbane -7.5 or better. |
|
Bulldogs vs Sydney |
NO PLAY |
|
The Bulldogs lost Addison with a knee
injury and included Tiller, Street, Ward and Wight to its expanded
interchange bench. The Swans lost Goodes and Playfair to injury and
dropped O’Dwyer. The Swans have lost three out their last four games with
the only win by 2 points over Carlton. The Bulldogs beat Sydney in
Sydney by 18 points in round 7 and without O’Loughlin, Goodes, or
Playfair and Hall out of form it’s hard to see how Sydney will be able
to kick a winning score. The Bulldogs are coming off consecutive losses
but one of those was against the Cats and they fell away after leading
by 37 points against Carlton last week. I think the Bulldogs will win
but the price and line look about right so no bet for me. |
|
St. Kilda vs Port Adelaide |
NO PLAY |
|
St Kilda has lost Hudghton to injury and
dropped M Gardiner and Armitage. They have included Koschitzke, Geary,
Rix, C Gardiner, Birss and Gwilt. Port Adelaide looked to have given up
on the season leaving out Tredrea, Salopek and Chaplin all to injuries.
They have included Farmer, Salter, Stewart, Thomson, White and Williams.
Port Adelaide has won 11 out of the last 12 games against St Kilda but I
don’t think that will continue here. It appears like Port got themselves
up for the derby against Adelaide and now the season looks finished with
players being prepared for 2009. St Kilda has won 4 out of its last 5
games but was very disappointing against West Coast last week losing by
17 points. St Kilda should win but Port has a very young squad and you
can never be safe they way St Kilda play. If St Kilda play attacking
football I think they can cover the line but not sure they will makes it
to risky to get involved so no bet for me. |
|
Fremantle vs West Coast |
NO PLAY |
|
West Coast coming off a win against St
Kilda last week included Glass, Houlihan and Davis to its expanded
interchange bench. Fremantle lost Warnock with a shoulder injury and
welcome back Pavlich, Browne, Hayden and Bradley to its expanded
interchange bench. Fremantle is looking for three wins in a row after
wins against Melbourne and Port Adelaide. West Coast is coming off a win
against St Kilda last week. Fremantle has won the past two games against
West Coast and will be looking for the hat trick. West Coast has been
well supported early in the week but the price looks about right so no
bet for me. |
|
AFL ROUND SEVENTEEN |
|
Geelong -18.5 vs Hawthorn |
2 at 1.91 |
 |
-2 |
|
The Hawks have included Stokes for Morton, whilst the Cats remained
unchanged. The Hawks lost there 3rd game of the year last week after
leading St Kilda by 6 goals midway through the match. The Cats managed
to beat the Bulldogs by 61 points last week after the game was level at
half time. The Cats have only lost one game for the year and after
starting the season a little sluggish have hit top form over the past 6
weeks winning easily. The is a rumour going around that Sam Mitchell
won’t play and there is some chance that Luke Hodge may miss due to the
birth of his first child. If both these thing eventuate the Cats will
shorten drastically. Bet 2 units on Geelong -19.5 or better. |
|
Collingwood -22.5 vs Essendon |
3 at 1.92 |
 |
-3 |
|
Essendon surprised by only making one change with Fletcher replacing the
injured Neagle. Collingwood welcomes back Davis for Goldsack. There must
be some doubts about the fitness of Monfries, Welsh, Fletcher and Lucas.
Collingwood will be looking to bounce back after last week’s loss to
North Melbourne. Essendon have been very impressive winning 4 out of its
last 5 games. Collingwood won this game in Round 6 by 73 points and
don’t see why the result will be any different. Bet 3 units on
Collingwood @ -23.5 or better (BEST BET). |
|
West Coast vs St. Kilda |
NO PLAY |
|
West Coast continued the revolving door with another 4 changes losing
Kennedy and Glass with injuries and dropped Houlihan and Davis. They
included Braun, Armstrong, Seaby and Spangher. St Kilda only made one
change with M Gardiner coming in for Koschitzke who is out suspended. St
Kilda has hit some form winning its past 4 games in a row after I wrote
them off earlier in the year. On the other hand West Coast has been
terrible all year and I don’t see any reason why the form line will
change here. I expect the Saints to win easily but not prepared to play
either way with the line set at 31.5 |
|
Richmond vs Brisbane |
NO PLAY |
|
The Tigers lost Hughes to injury and dropped Polo but get back
Richardson and Jackson. Brisbane has dropped Hooper and Harding but
included Adcock and Sherman. The news early in the week that Power did
not train saw Richmond price move from 1.91 into 1.67 with most bookies.
The Tigers have won 4 from its last 5 games whilst the Lions have lost
its last 3 games in Melbourne over the past month. The Tigers deserve to
be slight favourites but I think the market may have over reacted a
little and there is a good chance Power will still play. I am happy to
stay out of this game until we know the final sides. |
|
Sydney vs. Adelaide |
NO PLAY |
|
The Swans lost Barry and O’Loughlin to injury and welcome back Hall and
Malceski. The Crows lost Jericho to injury and dropped Moran and
Johncock; they included Gill, Mackay and Porplyzia. I suspect Goodes and
O’Keefe may be carrying some niggling injuries from last week but expect
them to play. Adelaide have now lost there last 5 games in a row and
with no Burton up forward they are lacking a key target up forward. I
think this
video on YouTube might help explain why we can’t bet on Adelaide,
but with the Sydney outs I’m happy not to get involved in this game. |
|
Port Adelaide vs Fremantle |
NO PLAY |
|
Port finally decided to get Chad Cornes ready for next year and leave
him out as he is carrying a shoulder, knee and finger injuries, they
also dropped Lade and Thomson. Port included Boak, Deluca, Stewart,
Thomas, Thurstans and M Westhoff to its expanded interchange bench.
Fremantle lost O’Brien and Browne to injury and included Murphy, Palmer,
Duffield, Bradley and Campbell to its expanded interchange bench. This
game doesn’t mean much to either side so I’m not prepared to get
involved either. |
|
Melbourne vs Kangaroos |
NO PLAY |
|
Melbourne lost Wheatley with a calf injury and included Carroll, Maric,
Mc Donald and White to its expanded interchange bench. North Melbourne
lost Ross with an ankle injury and included Sinclair, Grima, Brown and
Riggio to its expanded interchange bench. Melbourne produced there best
start to the season last week to lead by 34 points early in the 2nd
quarter against Fremantle only to be convincingly beaten by 46 points.
North Melb produced one of there best games to overrun Collingwood and
win by 18 points. I expect North Melbourne to win the game but some
showers forecast happy to stay out of any bets at the line. |
|
Carlton +22.5 vs Bulldogs |
1 at 1.92 |
 |
+0.92 |
|
The Bulldogs are coming off there 2nd loss for the year against the all
conquering Cats have included Hill, Ward and Williams to its expanded
interchange squad. Likewise Carlton is coming off a 2 point loss to the
Swans has included Armfield, Browne and Hampson to its expanded
interchange bench. The Bulldogs deserve to be favourites but I think the
game will be a lot closer than most think. The Blues have been very
competitive this year with 7 wins on the board after 16 rounds. I expect
the Bulldogs will bounce back but think Carlton can keep the margin
under 20 points and maybe an outside chance to win the game. Bet 1 unit
on Carlton @ +21.5 or better. |
|
AFL ROUND SIXTEEN |
|
Kangaroos vs Collingwood |
NO PLAY |
|
North Melbourne surprised by dropping N Thompson and Grima and included
Grant and Jones. Collingwood have made no changes to the side that beat
Adelaide last week. North Melbourne won this game earlier in the year by
7 points after trailing early in the last quarter. Collingwood has won 6
from its last 8 games this year whereas North Melbourne has won 4
matches from its last 8 games. The Bookies have Collingwood around 1.45
and North Melb at 2.75. The Line is 15.5 which looks about right to me
so no bet. |
|
Geelong -12.5 vs Bulldogs |
2 at 1.92 |
 |
+1.84 |
|
The Cats have lost Ablett and Ling as expected and included Kelly and
Prismall. The Dogs dropped Hill and Wight for Griffen and Welsh. This
game looks like the match of the Round with 1 versus 2. The Cats have
been in sensational form over the past month with an average winning
margin of 84 points. The Bulldogs are travelling pretty well themselves
but this is a big step up to face the Cats at Skilled Stadium. The
Bulldogs have already beaten Hawthorn, Sydney and Collinwood so they
have the ability to compete at the highest level. Ablett and Ling are
big outs but I think the Cats have dominated the competition for the
past 18 months and see no reason to change here. Bet 2 units on Cats
-13.5 or better. (BEST BET) |
|
Richmond vs Essendon |
NO PLAY |
|
All the early money has been for Richmond which has seen there price
shorten from 1.85 to 1.65. The move was on the back of the news that Mc
Veigh would miss with a knee injury for Essendon. Lovett has also been
suspended by the club and they have been replaced by Atkinson and Dyson.
They are big outs for the inform Essendon who have won their past 4
games in a row, but two of those wins were against West Coast and
Fremantle. Richmond's form is not bad with three wins from its past four
games and they've made no changes to the side that belted West Coast last week
but they are still missing Richardson. Richmond beat Essendon by 38
points when they last clashed in Round Nine. I think Richmond is short
enough without Richo, but Mc Veigh and Lovett out will hurt the Bombers
midfield. I’m not prepared to bet either way at the current price. |
|
Brisbane vs West Coast |
NO PLAY |
|
I think it’s impossible to get involved here from a betting prospective
with West Coast possibly tanking for the rest of the year. Brisbane's form
has been poor over the past month and they have key injury concerns with both
Black and Brown doubtful. Brisbane's price is terribly short but not if
West Coast tanking so no bet for me. |
|
St. Kilda vs Hawthorn |
NO PLAY |
|
The Saints included Fiora and Schneider for Allen and Gwilt who have
been dropped. The Hawks bring back Bateman for the injured Crawford. The
Saints have found some form winning their last 3 games this year but
have not looked that convincing at times. Likewise the Hawks have
bounced back with consecutive wins after the loss to North Melbourne 3
weeks ago. Price looks about right no bet for me. |
|
Carlton vs Sydney |
NO PLAY |
|
No major changes for either side. Sydney is coming off consecutive
losses and travels back to Telstra Dome. The Swans are not in great form
at the moment and Carlton look some chance in the game. The Blues have
won 3 from its last 5 games in 2008 and was a chance to win both games
it lost in that period. I think the price looks about right so no bet
for me. |
|
Port Adelaide vs Adelaide |
NO PLAY |
|
I found this another very tough game with both sides struggling. Hard to
make a case for either side based on current form. The Crows have lost
Porplyzia and Burton to injury and included Jericho, Mackay, Mc Gregor,
Mc Leod, Morgan and Otten to an expanded interchange bench. Port has
lost White with a hamstring injury and included Lade, Salopek, Stewart
and Wilson to its expanded interchange bench. The game looks too tough to
pick a winner so no bet for me. |
|
Fremantle -16.5 vs Melbourne |
2 at 1.92 |
 |
+1.84 |
|
Fremantle lost Solomon to suspension,
Palmer to general soreness and dropped Hinkley. They included Josh Head
for his first game along with Duffield, Bradley, Mc Manus, O’Brien and
Murphy to its expanded bench. Melbourne lost Green with a hamstring and
included Davey, Mc Donald, white and Yze to its expanded bench. I have
been tipping Fremantle all year and figure if they can’t beat Melbourne
and cover the line at home its time for Mark Harvey to go just like Big
Brother. So bet 2 units on Fremantle -16.5 or better. |
|
AFL ROUND FIFTEEN |
|
Carlton vs St. Kilda |
NO PLAY |
|
Carlton welcomes back captain Chris Judd
for O’Hailpan whilst St Kilda gets back Hayes for Charlie Gardiner. St
Kilda has won its last 9 games against St Kilda but we must remember
Carlton was tanking in probably 6 of those games. Carlton has won 3 from
its past 4 games this year. St Kilda has also hit some form with
consecutive wins over the past 2 weeks. I don’t think there will be a
lot in this game and the Bookies have come up with St Kilda being slight
favourites, so no bet for me. |
|
Adelaide +17.5 vs Collingwood
|
3 at 1.91 |
 |
-3 |
|
Collingwood made no changes to the side that easily beat Sydney last
week whilst Adelaide included Griffin and Campbell for the injured
Reilly and dropped Gill. Collingwood broke its 2 game losing streak with
an unexpected win over Sydney last week. Adelaide is on a 3 game losing
streak having lost to the Hawks at AAMI by 4 points, Brisbane at the
Gabba by 13 points and Geelong at AAMI by 68 points but who is not
losing to Geelong in the last 2 years? I expect the Crows to bounce back
and have won 5 from its last 6 games against Collingwood. I am expecting
a close game and happy to bet 3 units on Adelaide @ +16.5 or better
(BEST BET). |
|
Geelong -44.5 vs Fremantle |
2 at 1.92 |
 |
+1.84 |
|
Geelong made no changes to its winning side whilst Fremantle made 4
changes trying to find a winning combination. The Dockers lost Bell to
retirement, Hayden and Dunn to injury and dropped Peake. They included
McPharlin, Michael Johnson, Farmer and Browne. The Dockers surprised The
Cats at Subiaco earlier in the year but the Cats have hit some form over
the past month and should easily account for the Dockers at Skilled
Stadium. Bet 2 units on Geelong -45.5 or better. |
|
Essendon vs Brisbane |
NO PLAY |
|
Essendon has included Slattery and Neagle for the injured Myers and
dropped Dyson. Brisbane included Johnstone, Stiller and Leuenberger for
Macdonald (ankle), Polkinghorne and Sherman. Brisbane is coming off a
one point to Melbourne last round and has lost consecutive games in 2008
but Essendon is tougher to beat than earlier in the year including 3
wins on the trot. I think Brisbane deserves to be favourites but the
line looks about right so no bet for me. |
|
Port Adelaide vs Kangaroos |
NO PLAY |
|
Port Adelaide is going through one of its worst patches of football
since joining the AFL with only one win from its last 7 games. The Power
has lost Gray to injury and dropped Stewart for Chad Cornes and Surjan.
North Melbourne has made 4 changes including dropping Grant (club
imposed suspended), C Jones, Riggio and Obst. They have included Ross,
Grima, Goldstein and McMahon. Port could not play any worse and on paper
look the winner but North Melbourne has beaten the Western Bulldogs,
Hawthorn and ran Geelong to 13 points over the last 6 weeks. I’m finding
it hard to make a case for either side and no result would surprise me
here. On that basis I don’t want to get involved in this game. |
|
Sydney +14.5 vs Hawthorn |
2 at 1.92 |
 |
-2 |
|
Hawthorn has included Taylor, Tuck, Bateman, Kennedy and Sewell to its
expanded squad and lost Renouf to suspension and Lewis with a quad
injury. Sydney has lost Hall to suspension and included Goodes, Grundy,
Schmidt and Smith to its expanded squad. Sydney has won the last 6
matches between the sides and is coming off its first lost in its last 6
matches in 2008. The Hawks are missing Dew, Crawford, and Lewis from its
best side. Sydney has a great record over the Hawks and can close down a
game when required. I expect Sydney to bounce back from last weeks loss
and Hall out might be a blessing in disguise as they played well when he
was out earlier in the year. Bet 2 units on Sydney @ +13.5 or better. |
|
Bulldogs vs Melbourne |
NO PLAY |
|
The Bulldogs have left out Griffen for family reasons and included
Harbrow, Street, Wight and Ward to its expanded squad. Melbourne has
lost Mc Lean for the season to injury and has dropped the suspended
Davey. They have included Bell, Carroll, Morton, Newton and White to its
expanded squad. The Bulldogs are flying and see no reason for it to
change against Melbourne who surprised Brisbane last round. The Demons
have been more competitive in the last few rounds so the line looks high
at over 40 points but the Bulldogs can pile up some big scores on the
fast Telstra Dome. I’m happy to stay out of this game so no bet for me. |
|
West Coast vs Richmond |
NO PLAY |
|
West Coast has dropped Staker and Graham and included Braun, B Jones,
Kennedy, MacKenzie and Wirrapanda to its expanded squad. The Tigers have
lost Richardson and Polak to injury and dropped Hyde. There is some
doubt about Kerr playing and if this is the case I expect some support
to come for the Tigers. Earlier in the year when the Tigers came to
Subiaco they belted the Dockers but started around the 8.00 mark. Who
would of thought that the Tigers would be starting around the 2.00 mark
or odds on at Subiaco against West Coast at the start of the season? At
the current odds of around 2.00 I don’t want to get involved with either
side. |
|
AFL ROUND FOURTEEN |
|
Adelaide vs Geelong |
NO PLAY |
|
Adelaide has included Massie and Symes for
the injured McLeod and dropped Jericho. Geelong welcomes back Scarlett
and Stokes for Taylor and Prismall. Adelaide is coming off consecutive
losses against Hawks at AAMI and Brisbane at the Gabba last round. The
Crows has won 6 from its 7 games at AAMI in 2008 with the only loss
being to the Hawks in round 12. Geelong is in awesome form but this game
might be a little closer than what most people think. Adelaide is hard
to beat at AAMI and is well coached by Craig. Geelong has only lost 1
game for the year and will be tough to beat anywhere the way they have
played over the last 2 years. I think the Bookies have got the price
about right so no bet for me in this game. |
|
Sydney vs Collingwood |
NO PLAY |
|
Sydney finally lost Goodes to suspension
and has included Everitt as his replacement. Collingwood has included
Cloke, Davis and Wakelin for the injured Rocca and Reid plus dropped
Toovey. The Swans have been in great form over the past two months and
has recorded 6 wins in a row during this period. Collingwood has
struggled over the past two weeks with losses to Carlton and Western
Bulldogs, but before that they did win 4 games in a row. Sydney has won
16 from 23 games at ANZ Stadium but Collingwood has beaten the Swans in
their last 4 matches. I expect Collingwood to be desperate to bounce
back after losing its past two matches but Sydney will be tough to beat
at ANZ Stadium. I don’t think there will be a lot in the game but happy
no to get involved, so no bet for me. |
|
Hawthorn vs West Coast |
NO PLAY |
|
West Coast made 5 changes 3 due to injury and dropped Braun and Fletcher
again. There is a rumour floating around that Braun may come in for A
Selwood. The Hawks get back Croad and Crawford for Tuck and Boyle. The
Hawks should have no trouble accounting for the Eagles in the match the
only real interested will be by how much? The line was well supported
late Thursday in from 42.5 to 45.5. The Eagles were terrible last week
but they were playing the best team in the comp in Geelong. The Hawks
have not been in great form over the past month but I expect them to
bounce back with a big win over the Eagles but reluctant to be taking
-45.5 so no bet for me. |
|
Richmond vs Carlton |
NO PLAY |
|
The Tigers included Johnson and Thursfield for McGuane and
Oakley-Nicholls. Carlton included Edwards for Armfield. Chris Judd has
been selected but the rumour is that he has a hairline fracture of the
jaw. All the early money has been for the Tigers on the back of the Judd
injury rumours and the possibility that Fevola is sore as well. I am
finding it hard to make a case for either side so no bet for me here. |
|
St. Kilda +10.0 vs Kangaroos
|
3 at 1.90 |
 |
+2.7 |
|
North Melbourne returned to form last week with a convincing win over
the Hawks. St Kilda managed to scrap home against Fremantle in an
ordinary game of football where only 2 goals were scored in the last
quarter. The Saints have included Koschitzke and recalled Dal Santo and
Milne for the injured Hayes and they dropped McEvoy and Geary. North
included Power for Lower. In North Melbourne’s other game at Carrara
earlier in the year they only managed to beat West Coast by 6 points.
The Saints are struggling and without Riewoldt they probably would have
lost last week. I don’t think there will be a lot in the game bet 3
units on St Kilda +8.5 or better (BEST BET) |
|
Bulldogs vs Port Adelaide |
NO PLAY |
|
Mark Williams has effectively declared finals are off the agenda for
2008. Therefore we need to be careful when betting in Port Adelaide
games. Maybe he will be trying out players and not too concerned with
the scores. Accordingly Port made 7 changes so it’s hard to make a case
for them against the Western Bulldogs who have only lost once for they
year. The Dogs lost Williams to injury and dropped Ward for Tiller and
Hill. I don’t want to get involved in this game. |
|
Brisbane -27.5 vs Melbourne |
2 at 1.92 |
 |
-2 |
|
The Demons continue to struggle in 2008 with only one win to date.
Brisbane bounced back at the Gabba with a win after a terrible
performance against the Bulldogs the week before. After trailing to
Adelaide for most of the night they managed to overrun the Crows in the
last quarter and win by 13 points. Brisbane has included Bradshaw,
Sherman, Johnstone and new boy Clouston. The Demons lost McDonald to
injury and dropped Frawley. It’s hard to make a case for Melbourne in
this game and I expect Brisbane to be too strong and run out easy
winners. Bet 2 units on Brisbane at -27.5 or better. |
|
Fremantle vs Essendon |
NO PLAY |
|
The Dockers continue to struggle in 2008 with only 2 wins. The Bombers
have managed to put back to back wins together for the first time last
week. Fremantle dropped Farmer for missing a rehab session after last
week’s game and lost Michael Johnson to injury. Essendon lost Slattery
to injury and included a number of changes to an expanded interchange
bench. With Lucas back in the team and Lloyd finding some form up the
ground the Bombers have looked much better over the past few weeks. I
expect the Dockers to be too strong at home but not prepared to bet at
this stage. |
|
AFL ROUND THIRTEEN |
|
St. Kilda vs Fremantle |
NO PLAY |
|
When it was confirmed that Koschitzke would miss again with injury on
Wednesday the punters jumped on Fremantle and there price shortened from
2.25 into around 2.00. On Thursday the rumours started early that Dal
Santo would be dropped saw the Fremantle shorten further to 1.85. When
the official team was announced Milne was also dropped on top of
injuries to Schneider and M Gardiner. The Saints have promoted
rookie-listed player Robert Eddy, Jarryd Allen and ruckman Ben McEvoy
for their AFL debuts along with Armitage. All bookies took the game down
and the re assessed the price. When it reopened Fremantle were into 1.60
and St Kilda out to 2.35 after opening at 1.65. St Kilda is just no
playing well with only 3 wins in its last 10 matches and those wins have
been against Melbourne, Richmond (fell in by 3pts) and Essendon.
Fremantle has only won 2 of its last 12 matches but they have been very
competitive and should have won maybe 4 to 5 of those games. I think
last weeks win will give the Dockers the confidence they can continue on
the winning way. I had planned to tip them but all the value has now
gone from the price. I think Fremantle will win but no bet for me at the
current price. |
|
Kangaroos +30.5 vs Hawthorn |
2 at 1.92 |
 |
+1.84 |
|
The Hawks welcome back Guerra for the injured Bateman. North Melbourne
lost McIntosh and Power to injury and dropped S Thompson, Brown, Davies
and Josh Smith. They have included Hansen, Watt, N Thompson, C Jones, S
Grant and Obst. The Hawks continue to impress with a last minute win
over the Crows at AAMI last week. The Hawks are still missing Crawford,
Croad, Taylor, Bateman and Sewell from its best side. North Melbourne
has lost its last 3 games and is missing McIntosh, Sinclair, Edwards
from its best side. I expect the Hawks to continue on there winning way
but with some rain forecast I think the Kangaroos might be able to sneak
in and cover the line. Bet 2 units on Kangaroos +29.5 or better. (BEST
BET) |
|
Port Adelaide vs Richmond |
NO PLAY |
|
Port Adelaide is struggling with 5 losses from its past 6 games at AAMI
which highlights how bad they are travelling. Port Adelaide sits on 4
wins and 8 losses for the year but it’s interesting to note they have
only beaten West Coast, St Kilda, Essendon and Fremantle. Richmond is
sitting on 4 wins and a draw for the year but those wins are against the
bottom teams on the ladder. The draw against the Western Bulldogs was a
good result and they probably should have won. The Tigers have only won
once from the last 8 games against Port Adelaide at AAMI. The Tigers can
win but I think the Power will win at home. No bet for me. |
|
Adelaide +11.5 vs Brisbane Lions
|
2 at 1.98 |
 |
-2 |
|
Brisbane has lost Roe to injury and dropped Stiller, and Leuenberger,
they have included Rischitelli, Copleland and Collier. Adelaide lost
Griffin to injury plus dropped Mackay and Otten. Burton is back from
suspension along with Gill and Reilly. Brisbane is coming off its worst
loss of the year against the Western Bulldogs last week. The Lions has
not lost 2 games in a row all year so I expect they will bounce back.
Likewise Adelaide is coming off a last minute loss against the Hawks
last week and has not lost consecutive games in 2008. The Crows have won
its last two matches at the Gabba against Brisbane. Bet 2 units on
Adelaide +11.5 or better |
|
West Coast +30.5 vs Geelong |
1 at 1.92 |
 |
-1 |
|
West Coast has strengthened its side by bringing back Kerr, Braun,
Fletcher, Hansen, and McKinley. The Cats continue in cruise control and
made no changes to last week’s side. West Coast’s only two wins this
year have been at Subiaco against Brisbane and Adelaide, but maybe
should have beaten Sydney a few weeks back. The Cats fell in by a point
against the Dockers on their last trip to Subiaco. West Coast is a big
price but they are playing the best side in the comp in the Cats. Bet 1
unit on West Coast at +29.5 or better. |
|
Melbourne vs Sydney |
NO PLAY |
|
The Swans are flying at the moment winning the past 5 games this year.
No changes at this stage but have included Brennan, Fosdike and Matthews
to an expanded interchange bench. The Demons added Whelan, Valenti and
Jamar to its expanded interchange bench. The bookies have posted a line
between 40.5 to 42.5 but I am finding it hard to get involved either way
but expect the Swans to win. |
|
Carlton vs Essendon |
NO PLAY |
|
Both sides are coming off wins last week. Carlton came from behind win
to overrun the Magpies. The Bombers easily accounted for West Coast to
secure their 3rd win of the year. I think Carlton should win the game
but the price looks about right to me so no bet for me. |
|
Collingwood vs Bulldogs |
NO PLAY |
|
Collingwood has been hurt with injuries to Fraser, Davis and the
suspension of Cloke. The Magpies have named Rocca in an expanded
interchange bench but I don’t expect him to play. The Bulldogs are
flying and included Harbrow, Hill and Street to an expanded interchange
bench. The Bulldogs opened at 1.55 with most bookies and have been well
supported on the back of the injury news to Collingwood into 1.30. The
Bulldogs have only lost once this year and I don’t think an undermanned
Collingwood side has much chance here. |
|
AFL ROUND TWELVE |
|
Essendon vs West Coast |
NO PLAY |
|
To start Round Twelve we have a Friday night
"blockbuster" at Telstra Dome
between two former power houses of the competition. In 2008 they are
both struggling and no chance of playing finals. Both sides will be out
to gain some respects from supporters but I’m finding it difficult to
make a case for either side so no bet for me. |
|
Bulldogs vs Brisbane Lions |
NO PLAY |
|
This looks to be a great game on paper with both sides in good form. The
Bulldogs left out Tiller for the experienced Murphy who returns from
suspension. The Lions left out Hawksley, Copeland and lost Bradshaw and
Harding to injury. They have included Drummond, McGrath, Stiller and
Roe. The Bulldogs have won the last four games between the two sides and return
to the MCG where they beat Melbourne in Round Two. It’s only their
second game at the MCG this year, whereas the Lions are playing their
first in 2008. Bradshaw is a big out for Brisbane which will put more
pressure on Brown in the Brisbane forward line. The Bulldogs have done
nothing wrong all year and could be undefeated if Brad Johnson had
kicked the goal against North Melbourne after the siren in Round 9. The
Dogs should win but no bet for me here. |
|
Fremantle to bt Kangaroos |
3 at 1.81 |
 |
+2.43 |
|
Well the Bookies have been cleaning up on the Dockers form this year
with only 1 win from 11 games but big news during the week came from
coach Mark Harvey who said "Anyone who plays us from here on in (knows)
we are a dangerous side to play,'' "And when you write up and talk about
Fremantle make sure that you talk about how dangerous we are. No doubt
Harvey is struggling fronting up to the media on a regular basis with
not a lot of wins to talk about. North Melbourne has won 7 from its last
10 games against Fremantle. North were very impressive last week losing
to Geelong by 13 points. They get back Wells and J Smith for McMahon and
Brown. The Dockers lost Black to suspension, McManus with a knee injury
and dropped Thorton and Bradley. They have included Hayden, Murphy, Dunn
and Schammer. With N Thompson and A Edwards missing with injury I
assumed C Jones would be an automatic selection but he has been named as
an emergency. So don’t be surprised if there is a late change and he
comes into the team. I still think Fremantle can win the game - bet 3
units at 1.75 or better. (BEST BET) |
|
Sydney -23.0 vs St. Kilda |
2 at 1.95 |
 |
+1.90 |
|
Sydney came from nowhere to get over the
Eagles last week and welcome back Barry Hall for Ed Barlow. St Kilda's
form is very disappointing and I don’t see any reason why they will turn
it around against Sydney. The Saints has made three changes at selection
including King, Gilbert and Harvey for Birss, L Fisher and Armitage.
Sydney has won 8 games from its last 10 at the SCG and covered the line
in each of the wins. I was shocked to see Adam Goodes only get a
reprimand at the tribunal and with him in the side I am happy to Bet 2
units on Sydney -23.5 or better. |
|
Adelaide vs Hawthorn |
NO PLAY |
|
Adelaide made only one change at selection
dropping McGregor for Griffin. The Hawks lost Taylor to injury and
dropped Kennedy for Dew and Renouf for his first game. The Crows are
tough to beat at AAMI and are undefeated there in 2008. The Hawks
smashed the Crows by 44 points in Tasmania in Round Four but the Crows were
coming of the Derby the week before. Franklin is the star of the Hawks
and likely to be the first player to kick 100 goals since Tony Lockett
in 1998. I expect Bock to get the job on Franklin and Rutten to go to
Roughhead. Hawthorn is the toughest opponent the Crows have played at
AAMI this year. The Hawks have won in Western Australia, Tasmania,
Brisbane and Melbourne in 2008 so I don’t see why Adelaide will be any
different. I think the bookies have priced the game about right with no
clear favourite either way, so no bet for me here. |
|
Geelong vs Port Adelaide |
NO PLAY |
|
The Cats are coming off a 13 point win
over North Melbourne last week and have lost Scarlett and Byrnes to
injury and included Taylor, Selwood, Hunt, Tenace and Gamble to an
expanded interchange bench. Port is coming off choking in the last
quarter against Carlton last week and has lost Stewart and Thurstans to
injury and included S Burgoyne, Lower, Lonie, Surjan and White to an
expanded interchange bench. Mark Williams mentioned during the week that
Chad Cornes was carrying an injury and might be rested until after the
mid season break. So I would not be surprised to see him miss the game.
Port won this game in Round 21 last year but it meant nothing. The Cats
went to AAMI and won by 9 points in round one earlier in the year. I
expect the Cats to win at home and the line looks about right so not bet
for me. |
|
Collingwood vs Carlton |
NO PLAY |
|
Collingwood is coming off a 21 point win
over an improved Demons effort last week. Meanwhile, Carlton produced a 7 goal last
quarter to run over Port Adelaide at AAMI. Both sides have
made no changes but added three players to expanded interchange benches.
Carlton won the game in round 4 by 23 points over the Pies. Carlton
could only manage 3 goals in the first 3 quarters last week against Port
Adelaide but kicked 7 goals in the rain in the last quarter. Collingwood
struggled against bottom of the ladder Melbourne but did enough to win
by 21 points. Collingwood has now won its last 4 games on the trot after
coping 65 point belting from the Hawks in Round 7. I expect Collingwood
to win but think the bookies have priced the game about the right price,
so no bet for me. |
|
Richmond vs Melbourne |
NO PLAY |
|
The Tigers looked good in the first half
against Adelaide last week but the wheels fell off in the second half to
allow the Crows to win by 50 points. The Demons played one of their best
games of the year to go down fighting and lose by 21 points to
Collingwood. Richmond dropped Tivendale and Pettifer as expected but
also lost Thursfield and King to injury. The Tigers included 7 players
including first gamer Alex Rance to its expanded interchange bench. The
injuries continued at Melbourne losing Rivers and Moloney and dropping
Bell. Good to see Davey was included along with Frawley, Jamar, C
Johnson, Carroll and Whelan to its expanded interchange bench. I expect
Jim Stynes to get the Demons to lift in his first game a President
Elect. The Tigers should be too good but I don’t fancy the Tigers at
1.35 so no bet for me. |
|
AFL ROUND ELEVEN |
|
Geelong -37.5 vs Kangaroos |
3 at 1.91 |
 |
-3 |
|
North Melbourne has lost its last 2
games against Geelong and the Cats smashed them in the finals last year
by 106 points. Geelong gets back Mooney and Chapman for Taylor and
Hawkins. North Melbourne has lost N.Thompson (knee), Jones (ankle) and
dropped Watt for Davies, M. Thompson and Brown. The bookies were caught
by surprise with the Corey Jones injury and this saw the line move from
32.5 to 36.5 late on Thursday. Nth Melbourne has not lost consecutive
games in 2008 but it’s hard to see them beating Geelong. Geelong bounced
back with a 56 point win over Carlton at Telstra Dome last week. I think
the -38.5 Geelong still looks good value with Nth Melbourne missing all
its key forwards. Bet 3 units on Geelong -38.5 or better.
(BEST BET) |
|
Richmond +10.5 vs Adelaide |
2 at 1.91 |
 |
-2 |
|
The Tigers have only beaten Adelaide once
in their last 10 meetings. This was the game in 2006 where Terry Wallace
played a super flood and Kevin Sheedy suggested it was more like
Basketball. The Tigers won 69 to 66 at Telstra Dome. The Crows have lost
Burton to suspension and Griffin to a hip injury for Jericho and
McGregor. The Crows have struggled in their last two games losing to
West Coast by 50 pts at Subiaco and falling in by 5 points against Essendon
last week at AAMI. The Tigers played their worst game of the year
against Sydney losing by 82 pts. I expect the Tigers to bounce back and
be far more competitive against the Crows. The Tigers have been well
backed into 2.50 from 2.95 earlier in the week. The weather forecast is
for a shower or two so it could be a tight close game. Bet 2 units on
Richmond +10.5 or better. |
|
Essendon to bt Hawthorn |
0.5 at 7.00 |
 |
-0.5 |
|
Essendon has lost Hislop to a shoulder
injury and have included Laycock. The Hawks welcome back Hodge and Boyle
for Murphy and the injured Sewell. Essendon played their best game since
their win in Round 3 against Carlton. Hawthorn is coming off its first
loss of the year to the Bulldogs last week. I expect Ryder to take
Franklin and Fletcher to get Roughhead. The Bulldogs were too quick in
the midfield last week and I think the Bombers are a rough chance in the
game. The Hawks have been in the news for the wrong reasons all week
with the coach and best player Buddy Franklin. The Hawks have been great
all year but no Sewell, Crawford, Mc Glynn, Dew and Guerra gives the
Bombers an outside chance. I don’t fancy taking the +39.5 about on
Essendon but happy to gamble ½ a unit on Essendon at 7.00 or better for
value. |
|
West Coast vs Sydney |
NO PLAY |
|
West Coast has made 7 changes to the side
that lost by 100 pts to Collingwood last week. The Swans only made one
change including Barlow for Bird. Traditionally these games have been
close except for the game earlier in the year when the Swans smashed the
Eagles by 62 pts at ANZ Stadium in NSW. The Swans are playing great and
West Coast has only 2 wins for the year but they were both at Subiaco.
On form you would expect the Swans to be too good but I think it might
be a little closer than most people think but no bet for me. |
|
Fremantle +34.5 vs Brisbane |
2 at 1.92 |
 |
+1.84 |
|
The Dockers are sitting on just one win
for the year over West Coast so it’s hard to make a case for them at the
Gabba against a Brisbane side in good form. Brisbane has won its last 3
games in a row and 5 of its last 7 with the only losses to Hawks and
Geelong. Brisbane has lost Roe and McGrath to injury and has included
five players to an expanded interchange bench. There is some doubt on
Brown and Drummond so I wouldn’t be surprised if there is a late change.
The Dockers have been very competitive all year but lose the compass in
the last quarter and struggle to get out of the backline. The Dockers
biggest loss is 64 pts against Richmond at Subiaco but besides that game
the losses have all been within 28 points and 4 of the losses have been
9 pts or less. Bet 2 units on Fremantle +34.5 or better. |
|
St. Kilda vs Bulldogs |
NO PLAY |
|
St Kilda is coming off a big win, albeit
against the struggling Demons. The Bulldogs are coming off belting the
Hawks down in Tasmania. The Bulldogs will miss Murphy who is out to
suspension and lost Callan with a hamstring. They have included Everitt,
Harbrow, Hill, Street and Ward to an expanded interchange bench. St
Kilda has included L Fisher, Gwilt and Fiora to its expanded interchange
bench. How quickly things have changed for the Saints who started 1.33
in round 3 against the Bulldogs and lead by 37 pts at quarter time. The
Bulldogs ended up winning the game by 38 pts. St Kilda opened at 3.00
with some Bookies and has been well supported into around 2.60. I am not
sure that the Saints have enough speed in the midfield to keep up with
the Bulldogs. I think the price is about right so no bet for me here. |
|
Port Adelaide vs Carlton |
NO PLAY |
|
Port Adelaide coming off a laster quarter
win against Fremantle last week has added Bently, Cassisi and White to
an expanded interchange squad. Carlton has lost Bower to injury and
included Austin, Edwards, Pfeiffer and Waite to its expanded squad. Port
Adelaide has won 8 and a draw out of the last 10 games against Carlton.
It’s hard to make a case for Carlton at AAMI but with some evening
showers forecast it may be a little wet. I remember when the rain came
in the Port Adelaide v Brisbane match earlier in the year when Port lead
by 47 points only to be overrun by Brisbane. I am happy to wait and
check the weather and not get involved at this stage. |
|
Melbourne vs Collingwood |
NO PLAY |
|
Collingwood has won 4 of its past 5 games
and has included Cook, Reid and Rocca to an expanded interchange bench.
Melbourne dropped Bell and Buckley, plus lost Robertson to injury. The
Demons have included Bode, Carroll, Jamar, C Johnston, Morton and Rivers
to its expanded interchange bench. Collingwood has been in good form all
year excluding the Round 4 loss to Carlton and Round 7 belting at the
hands of the Hawks. The Demons have won only one game for the year so
how do you | | | |