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Tuesday February 7, 2012 -





 

WEEKLY AFL PICKS .. with OnThePunt's Aussie Rules Guru
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AFL ROUND TWENTY-THREE
Adelaide -18.5 v Richmond 3 at 1.92 -3
Two teams finishing the season with a bit of a rush meet here in what should be an interesting clash. Adelaide under Bickley look like a finals side the shackles have been taken off. They're playing their football with a lot more freedom and gusto the Walker/Tippett combination up forward - as dangerous as any forward line in the competition. Richmond's strength is their midfield but I believe Adelaide match up quite well with them here. Historically, Adelaide hold a strong edge over the Tigers winning 8 of their last 10 matches plus winning the last 5 between the two at AMMI Stadium by an average of 40 points. Adelaide's late season surge to continue - Play Adelaide -18.5 points for 3 units.
Essendon -68.5 v Port Adel. 4 at 1.92 Luxbet -4
Ok this will most likely make Port competertive agian me tipping against them !! Make no mistake Essendon will not be treating this game lightly - they must win here to secure the finals spot. If they get on top early expect them to go on with the job because if cards fall their way there is a chance they could get a home final. Port Adelaide have been completely uncompetitive in recent weeks which makes you wonder that there must be some big problems behind closed doors, as on paper this side should should be performing better that what they are. I can only see one result here - one team playing for their lives against a team playing like they don't care. Essendon by plenty. Play Essendon -68.5 points for 4 Units (BEST BET)

 

AFL ROUND TWENTY-TWO
Adelaide -31.5 v Gold Coast 3 at 1.92 +2.76
After a decent first year, the Gold Coast are beginning to look like a tired group in the last few weeks and Mckenna is really turning the side over week in week out. Adelaide on the other hand, appear to be a new side under the guidance of Bickley he definitely has them playing with more freedom. They look fresh and certainly look like a side to keep an eye on come season 2012. They will be stronger this week with bookends Tippet and Rutten back and on what they have shown the last three weeks they should be to strong for the tiring Gold Coast. Play Adel -31.5 points for 3 units.
Sydney v St Kilda
Either Team Under 15.5 pts
3 at 2.90 +5.7
A shocker from the Swans last week. Whilst their not a great side, very rarely do you see them play as poorly as they were last week. I'm sure we will see a massive improvement in their performance this week. St Kilda are getting better every week and did well last week against the Pies. This game has massive ramifications for both sides so I'm expecting a dog fight and a battle that will go down to the wire. Play the Tri-Bet either Team Under 15.5 points for 3 Units.
Port Adel. +35.5 v Bulldogs 3 at 1.85 -3
Why oh Why? I'm asking myself already. Port have cost me plenty in season 2011 but I'm going again. No doubt they have been nothing short of disgraceful the last two weeks against (Collingwood and Hawthorn) but on paper they really appear to be getting their best team back together with Brogan back. Now we need to see if any sprit exists within this group. Hard to see the motivation for the Dogs this week. It's been a messy week with Eade's departure and he was well liked by the player group and with Williams only taking the Caretaker role on Thursday, surley they will not be fully focused this week. Play Port +35.5 points for 3 Units.

 

AFL ROUND TWENTY-ONE
Port Adel +80.5 v Hawthorn 3 at 1.85 -3
A dogged win by the Hawks last week in pretty average conditions in Tassie. Only a six day turn around from that match - luckily they only have Port to contend with. Port had a blackout last week at the hands of a merciless Collingwood and the changes have been rung at the selection table, with eight moves in all. Some of their better players have been brought back including Chaplin and Carlie which will stiffen up their defence and Schulz will give them a focal point. The Hawks should win and win well but on back of the back of a massive slog last week and Ports strong additions a 13 goal start looks too high. Play Port +79.5 points for 3 Units.
Fremantle +17.5 v Carlton 3 at 1.92 -3
A better performance from Fremantle last week against the Saints until the last quarter when the Saints ran over the top. Carlton are playing well and did a number on a insipid Melbourne last week. Captain Judd is flying and apparently has the Brownlow in the bag. Fremantle have had the better of Carlton in recent clashes at Subiaco winning 4 of the last 5. This is D-Day for Fremantle - if they want to play a part in the finals series this season they must win. They have brought Sandilands back in, whether he is ready to go remains to be seen. Still, I'm expecting a huge effort from Fremantle here and the line has come up around 8-9 points higher than I thought it would be. Play Fremantle +17.5 points for 3 Units.
Essendon -4.5 v Bulldogs 3 at 1.91 +2.73
Essendon fell over the line in one of the best matches of the season last week - in the end you could say some what luckily with Sydney's inaccurate kicking in the last quarter. The Bulldogs, off the bye should be fresh but to me they will not be able to apply the same pressure on Essendon that Sydney was able to last week. Both teams are fairly open and attacking sides and that should suit the Bombers. They are slowly getting back a number of key players and earlier in the season they torched the Bulldogs by nine goals at this same venue. Essendon will be looking to shore up their final 8 spot and if on song the should have the Dogs covered. Play Essendon -4.5 points for 3 Units.

 

AFL ROUND TWENTY
Melbourne +42.0 v Carlton 3 at 1.93 Luxbet -3
The Demons are coming of the week from hell. It was was a deplorable loss to the Cats, still this season they always seem to respond to a bad loss. Whether they're capable after what Geelong did to them remains to be seen but the line looks like it might have over-reacted somewhat. Losing Jarmar hurts but Martin has proved a find in the ruck so they should be ok there. Scully is back along with Davey and also remember Moloney took no part in last weeks game as he sat crook on the bench for the whole match. They will also be comfortable being back at their home ground the MCG where clearly their best results have come this season. The Blues are travelling nicely but were made to work last week by the Roo's - they should get the win here but surely Melbourne will be going hell for leather here which should give them a decent shot at covering. Play Melbourne +42.0 points for 3 Units.
Essendon to beat Sydney 3 at 2.02 +3.06
Terrific effort in the first half from Essendon last week as they exposed Collingwood with their run. But not for the first time this season, injuries ruined there day with only 17 fit players by the end of the game, making it impossible to stay with Collingwood. But they would be glad Watson got a game under his belt and they have some very good in's and back at Ethidad stadium where their form is outstanding. Sydney off they bye, will be fresh and ready to make there final assault on another finals campaign. It makes for an intriguing match up here - Essendon's run vs. Sydney defence pressure. Essendon was able to cut though Collingwood early last week and remember they did beat Geelong at this venue only a few weeks ago. I reckon they have set themselves for this one and with finals spot on the line I think they will get over the line. Play Essendon 2.02 to win for 3 Units.
Port Adel. +73.5 v Collingwood 3 at 1.92 -3
Big game for the Power here as they look to send out club legend Chad Cornes. Sending him out with a win won't happen but the line looks massive here. Factor in some wet weather in Adelaide this weekend and they should be in the game long enough to cover this spread. Collingwood welcome back Thomas and Didak and one thinks they will just be happy to get through this one - not sure the Pie's will be busting a gut here and can see them easing to a 7-8 goal win. Play Port +73.5 points for 3 Units.
Nth Melb +34.5 v Hawthorn 3 at 1.92 +2.76
A terrific win by the Hawks last week - they looked as slick as we have seen in some time. The Kangaroos were brave last week but their ball use let them down in crucial stages. Still, they would have been pleased that they were able to compete with a top 4 side. They venture to Tassie this week were they have enjoyed some success winning twice in their four trips. I suspect the Hawks will prove too strong over the four quarters but Aurora Stadium generally provides low scoring scrappy sort of games and that should suit the Roo's down to the ground. Play North Melbourne +34.5 points for 3 Units.
West Coast -41.5 v Richmond 3 at 1.92 +2.76
West Coast almost blew a 50pt lead against the Dogs, but showed composure to see off the Dogs, mainly thanks to Dean Cox. Back home, they get Kerr and Nic Nat back. The tigers have really hit a hurdle late in the season after some promising early season form. The loss of Captain Newman is big as he is so creative off the back flank and his leadership will be missed. They can take comfort from the fact that they have won 3 of their last 5 trips to Subiaco. Still, they have lost their last 5 games this season by an average of around 50 points. It's hard to see the young Tigers compete for the four quarters and I can see the Eagles running over the top of them here as they aim for a top four spot. Play West Coast -41.5 points for 3 Units.

 

AFL ROUND NINETEEN
St Kilda -40.5 v Gold Coast 3 at 1.92 -3
Collingwood toyed with the Coast last week and luckily for the Gold Coast, they well and truly took their foot of the pedal in the second half of last weeks encounter. There is no doubt that we are seeing some very good signs from the Coast, however they run into a St Kilda side that appears to have turned the corner big time. They appear back the best form of recent years and their defence structure's look great again. Gold Coast will find it hard to put a competitive score on the board here and with a spot in the eight well within reach, St Kilda will be well up to put Gold Coast away here. Play St Kilda -40.5 points for 3 Units.
Fremantle +14.5 v Hawthorn 3 at 1.92 -3
Fremantle fell at the last hurdle in what was one of the best matches you would ever wish to see. The Dockers have been playing some good footy but for whatever reason, seem to be a little bit underrated by the bookies. The loss of McPharlin is a big blow as he is maybe the in-form full back in the competition and was the logical match up for Franklin. The Hawks themselves are ticking along very nicely, slowly getting injured players back and I get the feeling come September they will be Collingwood's biggest challenge. This week however, they have come up a little short in a match that to me looks closer to pick it than what the current market suggests. Have to go with the value here. Play Fremantle +14.5 points for 3 Units.

 

AFL ROUND EIGHTEEN
Adelaide +38.5 v St Kilda 3 at 1.92 -3
The Saints appear to be back on track and with the draw they have ahead they look set for a lower spot in the eight come finals time. Last week, they dominated the Eagles early, but like we have seen so many times, they fail to finish a team off when they get on top - often going back to their slow ball movement and allowing the Eagles back into the contest. Still they came again in the last quarter and did what they had to do. The Crows are playing a little better themselves, beating the Swans and were unlucky last week against the Bombers with injuries killing their chances late in the game. They have been allocated a pretty big start here - whilst I suspect the Saints will get the four points, the Crows should be able to cover the big start they have. Play Adelaide +38.5 points for 3 Units
Hawthorn -25.5 v Melbourne 3 at 1.90 +2.7
The Hawks off the bye get some big names back in what will be an emotional day for them as they look to send off legendary coach Alan Jeans in style. Melbourne return from their trip up north where they had a solid but unspectacular win. Recent history between these two have been dominated by the Hawks with them winning the last five contests between the two by an average of just under 6 goals, all at the MCG. I'm not sure Melbourne will be able contain Hawthorn here in what will be a big day for the club. I also suspect Melbourne's trip to Darwin will effect them late in this contest. Play Hawthorn -25.5 points for 3 units.

 

AFL ROUND SEVENTEEN
Gold Coast +40.5 v Richmond 3 at 1.91 +2.73
The Tigers really have had a flat patch of form which has been disappointing as Hardwick did look have have balanced out the difference between their best and worst. There are signs that some of the younger players are struggling and they will be looking for a lift from their bigger name players. Luckily for them, they have the Gold Coast this week which should see them get the four points. However, covering the 40 odd spread is another matter. Last time they ventured to the tropic's they got rolled by Port Adelaide. Gold Coast have been good in patches without playing four quarters out. Injuries to Ablett, Bock and Brown seemed to have been only minor and all three are named this week. I think we have seen enough from Gold Coast this year to suggest they can cover a high line against a struggling opponent. Play Gold Coast +40.5 points for 3 Units.
Collingwood -36.5 v Carlton 3 at 1.92 -3
The Blues have stumbled somewhat over the last month - they really were extremely disappointing last week which may coincide with them obtaining some injuries for the first time this year. Jamison and Waite are two tall's they just cannot afford to miss this week and Carrazzo's absence is hurting as well - he is a vital part of their mid-field rotations. Collingwood on the other hand, are flying. To have a percentage of 180% this deep into the season is amazing and they cleary are streets ahead of the rest. For mine they will be far too strong over the four quarters for the Blues and I can see a 9-10 goal win here. Therefore the current available lines look appealing. Play Collingwood -36.5 points for 3 Units.
Fremantle +25.5 v Sydney 3 at 1.92 +2.76
Interesting match up here. The Swans keep getting the job done against lesser teams whilst Fremantle have had a horror run with injuries but are still holding on to their spot in the eight. Last week's bye might have been a blessing for the Dockers as they have some good players back in this week and looking at their injury list now, Sandlands and Mundy look to be the only major outs at the moment. Fremantle almost seem to have been written off to be a finals contender this year. They do have a tough run home but considering their problems this season, to be where they are has been a solid effort and if they get back to full strength they will be a wild card late in the season. For mine, the Swans are not a four goal better side than the Dockers and I sense this go will go down to the wire as both teams will be desperate to lock in their spots in the eight. Play Fremantle +25.5 points for 3 Units.

 

AFL ROUND SIXTEEN
Brisbane +39.5 v Hawthorn 3 at 1.92 -3
Hawthorn had a bit of a reality check last week against Collingwood, but I don't think they would have been overly disappointed. With so many big outs it had to be expected and if they get some players back on board they will give the Pies a run for their money come September. As for this week, their injuries problems get no better, losing Bateman while still missing a ton of others and Franklin has to be a doubt with his ankle. Brisbane got a win up over Port in a fairly scrappy match and whilst they have their injury problems it's no where near the extent that Hawthorn have. These home games in Tassie for Hawthorn generally bring lower scoring games and with some average weather forecast, I think that they will just be pleased to get the four points on the board. The line does look too big here considering the Hawks problems. Play Brisbane +39.5 points for 3 units.
Sydney -35.5 v Gold Coast 3 at 1.93 +2.79
Again the Coast were competitive last week but failed to run out the four quarters. It does look to be a case of the kids struggling late in the season. Gary Ablett has been amazing but he is getting little help at the moment. The Swans have lost their last three and will be desperate to get back on track. They have some very good in's this week that really strengthen their side up. They have shown this year that they put away these lower ranked sides and I'm expecting that this week. Play Sydney -35.5 points for 3 units.
Essendon -11.5 v Richmond 3 at 1.91 +2.73
An amazing turn around in form from the Bombers last week - they again showed that at Etihad Stadium then can compete with any team. However this week they're back at the MCG where their recent record has not been great. Richmond does have a recent good record over the Bombers, but I like Essendon this week. I believe last weeks win will be wasted if they don't win here and I expect them to be well up for this one. Richmond are beginning to look like a tired team and are having massive issues with their ruck division. They are slaughtered every week in the ruck contests and are in desperate need of decent big men. And to make matters worse, their ruckman Browne is out injured, leaving no specialist ruckman in their team. Vickery has been named to play there but that robs them of a second forward who has been playing well. I expect Hille and Ryder to dominant around the ground and give their players plenty of first usage of the ball. Play Essendon -11.5 points for 3 units.

 

AFL ROUND FIFTEEN
Carlton -24.5 v Richmond 3 at 1.92 +2.76
Richmond fought out an entertaining contest with Melbourne. They have had a decent season and they look like they could well be playing finals within a few years. This week however, I think they're up against it. Carlton coming off there first loss in a while, will be keen to get back on the winners board. Jamison is a loss for their defensive unit, but they welcome back Waite who can fill the void. The Blues all season have put away these sort of middle of the road sides and they do have a strong record against the Tigers in recent times. Play Carlton -24.5 points for 3 Units
Collingwood -22.5 v Hawthorn 3 at 1.90 +2.7
An interesting contest this promises to be. Collingwood off the bye, got over the Swans despite some horrendous kicking for goal. Swan looks refreshed and they finally get Jolly back on board. A great effort from the Hawks to be where they are with all their injuries. It will be fascinating to see how their short kicking holds up against Collingwood's pressure. Whilst they get Buddy back, to me the losses of Sewell, Rioli and Lewis are too much on top of the players that are already missing. I think Collingwood will run over the top of the depleted Hawks. Play Collingwood -22.5 points for 3 units

 

AFL ROUND FOURTEEN
Hawthorn v Essendon NO PLAY
There is plenty of money floating around for the Bombers against the ‘Buddyless ‘Hawks. This looks a really tough game to get your head around. Hawthorn, despite their injuries are managing to roll along nicely. The loss of Buddy really hurts as he has an outstanding record against Essendon - but looking through their side, there is still plenty of talent. An improved effort from Essendon last week but inaccurate kicking and injuries cost them. Their record at the MCG is a concern but I guess with all of Hawthorns out's they will consider themselves a decent chance. No Play.
Gold Coast v W Bulldogs NO PLAY
The Coast get their two best kids back in Smith and Swallow. They were ok last week but as we have seen all year they were not able to run the match out. The Dogs got over Adelaide in a very average match you would think they will get over the line here but market does look around the mark. No Play.
Melbourne to beat Richmond 3 at 1.97 +2.91
Really interesting matchup. The Tigers got over a hard working Brisbane late, whilst Melbourne flogged a depleted Fremantle outfit. For mine, Melbourne's best is just ahead of the Tigers. Jarmar back is huge for Melbourne and to be able to ease him in on the back of Stefan Martin's form is a big bonus. Don't underestimate the loss of Jake king for Richmond - he has been a regular goal kicker and his presence will be missed. In a tough call I'm going to play Melbourne here off the back of a win - a dangerous move!! Play Melbourne to win for 3 Units
Sydney v Collingwood NO PLAY
Amazingly, this will be the first time the Pies have travelled since Round 15 last season, and it’s a trip that is not unfamiliar to them. Off the bye, they welcome back Swan and Thomas. Sydney, whilst being solid this year just can’t go against the top four sides, and it should be no different here. The line is around the mark so, No Play.
Fremantle -32.5 v Brisbane 3 at 1.92 Luxbet -3
Brisbane have a decent record at Subiaco and their recent record against the Dockers is ok winning three of the last five. But this is not the same Brisbane team - they have for most the year been competitive but have been cruelled by injuries and it only gets worse this week with Clark, Banfiled and Drummond again all out - just too many good players missing from their best line up makes this a very tough assignment. Fremantle were very poor last week but back at home they are a different team and they are beginning to regain some good players with the main man Sandilands back on board. At home when they get a sniff they’re very hard to stop and I just can’t see how Brisbane will be able to hold them this week. There is some rain around but still the minus does look a tad low. Play -32.5 points for 3 Units
Geelong v Adelaide NO PLAY
A lot of changes to the Geelong side and against an opponent that was in any sort of decent form they could have been in for a struggle. Adelaide are not one of those teams however. It has been a horrible year for the Crows - their game plan looks outdated and trying to get any sort of confidence back playing in Geelong looks too much. Even though their opponent's have some injury concerns, the market looks around the mark. No Play.
West Coast +28.5 v Carlton 3 at 1.92 Luxbet +2.76
No doubt the Blues are flying, they are playing with great confidence and really all their top-liners are in great form. They have been the talk of the town last week - will the attention go to their heads?? West Coast have the game and man power to give Carlton a huge run for their money here. Their big forwards can trouble a smallish Carlton defence, and if Cox and Nic-Nat can control the ruck they should be provided with plenty of opportunities. I do suspect that Carlton might be slightly comfortable where they are at the moment and West Coast are desperate for a big scalp in Melbourne. Close to five goal start looks appealing. Play west Coast +28.5 points for 3 Units
Port Adelaide to bt Nth Melbourne 3 at 2.66 -3
Port were good last week in an entertaining match against West Coast, whilst North got over the top of Essendon. No doubt there has been big improvement in North's game and Brad Scott really looks to be a terrific coach. I do however think they have come up far too short here. Port are getting back to their best team on the park. We have seen glimpse's this season that when on song they go okay. I don't think they much more than a 2.20/2.25 shot so the 2.70 odd looks appealing. Play Port Adelaide to win for 3 Units

 

AFL ROUND THIRTEEN
Adelaide +27.5 v W Bulldogs  3 at 1.92 -3
Where do we start with this one? Both teams are in shocking form - you sense the Dogs are going slightly better but they come up extremely short considering their recent form. They do get back Cooney but are still missing bookends Lake and Hall. The Crows have named Tippett but there is still a doubt about him playing. With both teams struggling I think the Dogs have come up too short. I would have thought the line would be closer to 15 or 16 here therefore the Crows look a little value. Play Adelaide +27.5 points for 3 Units
Hawthorn v Gold Coast NO PLAY
This is probably just the game Hawthorn need with their injuries concerns. Gold Coast are missing a couple of young guns in Zac Smith and David Swallow. Hawthorn will win - whether they cover the line is the interest but I will leave this one alone. No Play.
Essendon v Nth Melbourne NO PLAY
Essendon will be glad to be at Etihad Stadium where they clearly pay their best football. Whether they can just the flick switch is the question. North are playing some good football lately and will relish the chance to get a victory over a top eight side. They are slowly getting their best side on the park and some people are starting to talk them up as a final 8 side. I'm not sure and I’m not sure about this game either the market does look right. No Play.
Brisbane v Richmond NO PLAY
Brisbane seem to be on struggle street again. After a couple of good wins they have been further hampered by the loss of Adcock who has been having a terrific year. With Merret gone as well, their defence really does look very ordinary. Jack Reiwoldt could be in for a big night. The Tigers have had a tough week playing in the wet in Sydney then having to catch a bus home and then prepare to fly to Brisbane. Still, I think they will be good enough to get over the top of Brisbane. But again, the market is around the mark. No Play.
St Kilda v Geelong NO PLAY
The Saints are slowly starting to play some decent football again will get a decent idea of where they are after this match. Montanga has been named but talk is he msy miss again. The Cats got over the top of the Hawks in another classic. The loss of Selwood is massive but they have so much class through their midfield that they should be able to adjust. I'm tempted with the Saints here but will leave it. No Play.
Melbourne to beat Fremantle 4 at 1.84 +3.36
Melbourne let a lot of people down last week in their loss to Collingwood, but that was the exact problem - they were playing Collingwood who may well be the best team we have seen for many years. Expect Melbourne to be a lot more competitive this week. They enjoy playing at the MCG and they welcome back a couple tough nuts in Petterd and Garland. On their form this year, they are due for an "up week". Fremantle have been solid all season but have been further cruelled by injuries. Mundy is a massive loss and losing Ballanytne's presence up forward is a huge blow. With a host of other starting 22 players missing they really should struggle this week. Add in the fact that they have only had 1 win at the MCG in their last 10 starts, everything points to a Melbourne victory. Play Melbourne to win for 4 Units (BEST BET)
Carlton v Sydney NO PLAY
The Blues are certainly the flavour of the month at the moment. They have had a very favourable draw, but you can only beat what's in front of you and their doing it very easily at the moment. Judd and Murphy look unstoppable in the midfield. Sydney have had a couple good weeks but a question mark remains over their ability against the better sides. You would think that they will try to slow the Blues down here and that does look to be their best hope. No Play.
West Coast v Port Adelaide NO PLAY
West Coast put away Adelaide with little fuss last week with a brilliant display from Daniel Kerr. Port off the bye get a couple decent players back and with a chance of some rain around do look some chance to cover a pretty big line. But it's a risky play as West Coast could quite easily win by 10-12 goals if switched on. I'll let it go. No Play.

 

AFL ROUND TWELVE
St Kilda -11.5 v Bulldogs 3 at 1.94 +2.82
Two teams that were expected to be certain finalists play off where a loss to either side could well spell the end to their season. For mine, the Saints have shown some signs of improvement over the last month, whilst the Dogs appear to be at their lowest ebb for a long time. The loss of Montanga is a big blow for the Saints as his form has been terrific. Still the Dogs making six changes suggests Rodney Eade is at his wits end trying to get this team up and running. Cooney back in helps but his form has been average at best. Their spine really does not look the same without Hall and Lake and with St Kilda winning their last five over the Dogs and improved form I think they can get the job done here and set their sights for a final eight spot. Play St Kilda -11.5 points for 3 Units
Adelaide v West Coast NO PLAY
Adelaide are playing as poorly as we have ever seen. The competitive edge which they have been renowned for is lacking, but at times this season we have seen what there are capable of if up for the challenge. West Coast, after a terrific start to the season do seem a little tired and only just held of an impressive Gold Coast. At the start of the season there was no way you could have had West Coast a 10 point favourite against the Crows in Adelaide but the market does look right and whilst the plus is somewhat tempting, I can't back Adelaide in their current state. No Play.
Gold Coast v North Melbourne NO PLAY
Fascinating match up here. Both teams appear to be on an upward spiral with their form. Gold Coast are improving every week and the big challenge this week is how they respond from the long trip back from Perth. North Melbourne comprehensively got over the line against Adelaide and with Firrito and Bastinac back in plus Harvey breaking the record for most games played by a North player suggests they will be hard to beat. There could be some poor weather around the Gold Coast this week which makes it hard to jump on with any conviction. No Play.
Geelong v Hawthorn
Either Team under 15.5 points
3 at 3.30 +6.9
Maybe the best match up in the competition. These two never seem to fail to entertain in their recent history, with the Cats holding the recent edge by narrow margins. All week the talk has been about Franklin's availability and there is still talk that he will miss despite being named but looking at Hawthorn's emergencies he looks to be a certain starter. Both teams are travelling well, I am expecting this one to be close like the recent history suggests. We will play the tri bet on this game again like earlier in the season. Play either team under 15.5 3.30 Sportingbet 3 units.
Carlton v Brisbane NO PLAY
The Blues are really making the most out of what is turning out to be a great draw and this appears another certain four points. They have lost Waite but that is balanced off by Brisbane losing Merrett. Kreuzer back in will give the team a huge lift and you would expect them to have little trouble with the Lions here. Brisbane put in their worst effort for the season after two good wins and I expect them to be a lot more competitive this week but the Blues will have too much class. No Play.
Richmond +23.5 v Sydney 3 at 1.99 +2.97
An outstanding first half from the Swans last week - they smashed the Lions in a brilliant exhibition of what they now call burst football. It really was the first time this season we have seen the Swans play in this manner. Richmond coming of the bye will be looking to get back on track after a poor loss to the Power in Darwin. Their recent record at the SCG has been poor but Hardwick has the team playing with a lot more grunt than we have seen from them in recent years and after maybe getting ahead of themselves against Port Adelaide I reckon he will have them switched on for this one. Despite Sydney’s terrific showing last week they will find the going a lot tougher this week and the Tigers look like value at the line to me. Play Richmond +23.5 for 3 Units
Essendon to beat Fremantle 3 at 2.16 -3
The Dockers were good for three quarters last week before a shocking drop late against the Hawks. They are in a rut at the moment and it is understandable with their injuries and the form of Pavlich is a massive concern you would expect him to be better this week. The Bombers after a couple bad losses will welcome back Hurley, Welsh and of course Watson. This will make a huge difference to them. Their record in Perth has been less than impressive but I think a trip away is just what they need and with some stars back on board I reckon they get over the top of a injury depleted Fremantle. Play Essendon to win for 3 Units
Collingwood -28.5 v Melbourne 3 at 1.92 +2.76
 These fought out a couple crackers last year and the betting this week suggests punters are thinking this will be close. Of course Collingwood are missing some big guns in Swan and Thomas. The latter will be a massive loss as his form has been outstanding. Swan on the other hand has been struggling the last month or so. Let’s not forget Melbourne are still missing the likes of Jarmar, Davey and the reliable Garland down back. I may be wrong but for mine the market adjusted to Collingwood's outs when it opened and it has only dropped since Collingwood's great strength has been bringing players in and play the role the team requires they have the best depth in the league. A under five goal start looks appealing. Play Collingwood -28.5 points for 3 Units

 

AFL ROUND ELEVEN
Melbourne v Essendon NO PLAY
Melbourne last week produced what can only be described as a horrendous brand of football against Carlton and they have coped it in the media all week. Having Scully and Trengrove back in will make them more competitive. Essendon off the bye are still missing Watson which hurt them massively against the Tigers. Looks like a bit of rain is predicted for Melbourne this weekend and this can only help they Demons cause. I'm expecting them to have a huge crack here early but whether they can sustain it for four quarters will be the big question. No Play.
Geelong v Bulldogs NO PLAY
Geelong after a slow first half last week put Gold Coast away with little fuss in the second half and are now back at Skilled Stadium. They just don't lose with an average winning margin of around nine goals in their last ten matches here. Expect them to put the Dogs away. The Bulldogs tried hard last week but are lacking confidence and going to down to Geelong will not help regain it. No Play.
West Coast v Gold Coast NO PLAY
West Coast's loss to Collingwood was not as bad as the final 50 point margin suggests. They were in the game for a long time but failed to capitalize on the scoring shots they had. Gold Coast showed last week just how good they are going to be in a couple of years. They are playing in quarter bursts but the young bodies can’t see out the four quarters. As the line suggests they’re in for a tough day on Saturday but line is high enough. No Play.
Brisbane to beat Sydney 3 at 1.95 -3
Brisbane go in unchanged after putting Adelaide away last week. They have been mostly competitive all season and with Brown back on board they’re starting to play with some real confidence and include the form of Black, Clarke and Ash Mcgrath suggests they will take some beating this week. The Swans somehow fell over the line last week. Some poor kicking and disputable umpiring decisions went their way and they got out with a one point victory over the Roo's. They do hold a good recent record over the Lions but with Mumford and Jack still missing I think the Lions will be able to get over the line and the pick it market represents value to me. Play Brisbane to win for 3 Units.
Collingwood v St Kilda NO PLAY
Collingwood was well up for the challenge last week and after a bit of a dog fight they were able to put West Coast away. St Kilda have got back on track the last couple weeks and it was a great win in Perth last week. I find it hard to see Goddard lining up this week after his collision. The line of 30 looks tempting for Collingwood but with some possible rain around will let it go. No Play.
Hawthorn v Fremantle NO PLAY
Impressive win by the Hawks last week and the final margin flattered the Bulldogs. They really appear to be clicking into top gear and may well be Collingwood's greatest threat come September. Fremantle’s injuries are destroying their season and the knock on effort of the loss of Sandlands is enormous. This week none of their star players are returning. The line is high but the Dockers have fallen away badly a couple times this year so will leave. No Play.
Adelaide +10.5 v North Melbourne 3 at 1.92 -3
The Kangaroo's are stiff to only have the two wins this season. Their kicking for goal has been a terrible let down for them and despite having all they play late last week they lacked the composure to get over the line. They have lost Furrito and Pratt this week which will really hurt. The Adelaide Crows are becoming the hardest team to work out. Their best has been terrific but their worst which we saw against Brisbane is awful. Despite losing Taylor Walker they do get Vince back in. Their two games at Ethaid this year has seen them lose to Carlton by a kick and go toe to toe with Collingwood for three and half quarters. I'm expecting them to rebound from last week’s loss and go very close to getting the points here. Play Adelaide +10.5 points for 3 Units.
Port Adelaide to beat Carlton 2 at 4.69 -2
Port Adelaide +29.5 v Carlton 3 at 1.90 -3
Nice win from Port last week. When on they are capable of some decent football and I believe they’re a lot better than a lot of people think. Carlton were not great last week but got over Melbourne pretty easily in what was an awful game of football. They have made a few changes this week, whilst Port have brought back Ebert and Surjan which I think are very good inclusions. A wet and wild day is forecast in Adelaide for Sunday - this along with the confidence of last week’s win should keep Port in this for a long time. Play Port +29.5 points for 3 Units and to win for 2 units.

 

AFL ROUND TEN
Carlton v Melbourne NO PLAY
A great effort from Carlton last week, they really should have won with Warnock missing a sitter at the death. The Demons themselves were fairly brave considering their massive injury problems and a couple more have been added to the list this week. This has been factored into the price and it looks around the mark. No Play.
Kangaroos to beat Sydney 3 at 2.10 -3
North failed to finish off the lions last week despite being on top for long periods of the game. They have been improving in the last few weeks after a slow start to the season and enjoy playing at Etihad stadium. Sydney have been a bit all over the place this season and to me they do not seem to have the some grunt they did under Paul Roos. Losing Mumford is a big loss and I can see the Kangaroos being in this game for a long time to me this is a close to pick it match so the Kangaroos look like a bit of value at their current price. Play Kangaroos for 3 units.
Fremantle v St Kilda NO PLAY
Considering the injury problems the Dockers have to deal with, the win/loss record they have is a great effort. But the one player they could not afford to lose was Sandilands as he is the most dominant big man in the game and will surely be missed. St Kilda would be pleased with the improved performances from their big name players last week and they do enjoy a decent record in Perth. The market reacted accordingly to Sandilands absence so I will leave. No Play.
Gold Coast v Geelong NO PLAY
The first home game at their very plush new stadium adorned with Italian leather boundary seats! The Coast prior to the bye looked to be playing some okay football in 1 or 2 quarter patches but this looks to hard. The undefeated Cats are travelling along nicely. They have rested some key players here but should be too good. The line looks around the mark so I will leave but will look forward to Ablett battling his old team mates. No Play.
Richmond v Port Adelaide NO PLAY
The Tigers are finally emerging out of the wilderness and what a great thing it is for football. They make their first journey to Darwin for a proper season game against the horribly out of form Power. To me the line is a tad on the high side but Port are just not able to run out four quarters and do get run over a lot late in games. I'm going to leave. No Play.
Adelaide v Brisbane NO PLAY
How do we judge Adelaide on last week for three quarters? They looked like a top-four side, yet the last 20 minutes they looked like witches hats. This week they face the Lions with Brown back on board and McGrath returning will only make them stronger. Still there are a lot of holes for the Lions to cover around the ground and it’s hard to see them beating the Crows. The line does look right however. No play.
West Coast +35.5 v Coll'wood 3 at 1.85 -3
Collingwood v - Maybe the most stunning 20 minutes of football I have ever seen from Collingwood last week. But while praising their last quarter, for the rest of the match they did look a tad jaded. Missing big men Jolly and Brown hurts them as neither of these two are back this week. West Coast were brilliant last week in their dismantling job on the Dog. They are clearly the most improved side in the business and look very solid all across the ground. Whilst I'm not sure they can beat the Pies this week with Collingwood's injury problems and talk that Swan is carrying an injury, I'm expecting the Eagles to be competitive enough to cover the line. Play West Coast +34.5 for 3 Units.
Bulldogs +22.5 v Hawthorn 3 at 1.92 -3
There can only be one way to go for the Dogs after last week and that is up. They will enjoy being back at Ethiad Stadium were they play their best football and surely their players will be throwing everything into this match. The inclusion of Hall will straighten them up as well. The Hawks are travelling very nicely. It was a great win in Sydney last week and Franklin is starting to look in 2008 form and will not have to contend with Lake this week who has had the wood on him recently. I'm expecting the Hawks to win but also expecting a vastly improved effort from the Dogs after last week. Will have a nibble on them at the line in a market that might have slightly overreacted to their huge loss. Play Bulldogs +22.5 for 3 Units.

 

AFL ROUND NINE
Geelong v Carlton NO PLAY
A great win by the Cats last week in what was a gruelling contest. One would have thought they could be in line for a let down this week but with the tragic news during the week of a club legend's death expect them to be up once again. The Blues off the bye will be out to prove that they belong in the upper echelon of the ladder. The market does look around the mark so, No Play.
St Kilda v Melbourne NO PLAY
The Saints looked back to their best at quarter time only to suffer what truly was an abysmal collapse. The team appears completely lacking any confidence and things need to turn around in a hurry if they’re to go anywhere this year. Melbourne as well started in a blaze of glory last week only to be overrun. Very hard to have a bet in this one - the Saints are going terrible and the Demons have a horrific record at Ethiad Stadium. I think there are better games to bet on this weekend. No Play.
Port Adelaide v Fremantle NO PLAY
Port Adelaide not for the first time this season dropped off last week for another very poor loss. Their effort in the last quarter was very ordinary. Fremantle are suffering plenty of injuries and were not able to hold off a rampaging West Coast last week. They do get Ballantyne back which will help up forward, and they don't fear travelling to Aami Stadium. Fremantle should get home but neither team are going great at the minute so will leave - No Play
Brisbane to beat North Melbourne 2 at 2.00 +2
Brisbane again were competitive last week but again the poor skills let them down at crucial times. Of course they welcome back Brown this week who will give them a massive lift just with his presence back in the team. North were very good last week after a poor start. Their record at the Gabba is very poor but to be fair, a lot of the losses were against very good Brisbane teams. I'm expecting Brisbane to go very close this week they were going to be a best bet but losing McGrath and Drummond were huge blows. Despite getting Brown back a bit of rain is predicted for Brisbane on Saturday which should keep this tight and the Lions might be worth a small play still for an interest - Play Brisbane 2 Units at 2.00.
Richmond +18.5 v Essendon 3 at 1.80 +2.4
Big injuries for the Bombers - the loss of Watson is big as he has had an outstanding year. Hurley is still out and the loss of underrated Hocking hurts as well. They have brought some good players in however. The Tigers were ok last week - in a way they look a little like Essendon of 2010, a very good attacking side but really need to improve the defensive side of their game. They do however seem to match up well with the Bombers winning 7 of the last 10 between the two and with the Bombers looking somewhat jaded at the moment expect the Tigers to push them all the way here. Play Richmond 3 Units +18.5 at 1.80.
Collingwood v Adelaide NO PLAY
Collingwood will be keen to atone for last week's lost and have regained some good players. I thought Adelaide was not overly impressive against the GC last week and will really need to be at their best this week to stay close. The lines in excess of 50 look tempting but the Crows are too unreliable for me. No Play.
Sydney -2.5 v Hawthorn 3 at 1.90 -3
Comfortable win by the Swans last week over a very poor Port Adelaide, but you can only beat what's in front of you and they did it well. Hawthorn's win was one of the best we have seen this season to be two men down and close to 6 goals down early was a terrific win regardless of where St kilda are at the moment. The trip to Sydney is not one they have enjoyed, only winning once in their last 10 tries at the SCG. Despite the effort of last week they look up against it this week and the smaller size of the SCG does not suit their game style. To me, the Swans look decent value this week - Play Sydney -2.5 at 1.90 for 3 Units.
West Coast -4.5 v Bulldogs 3 at 1.92 +2.76
A huge effort from West Coast last week to overcome the loss Kerr and Emebly just before kick off and then perform as they did just showed how much this team has improved. Their forward line is one of the best in the business - Kennedy is in outstanding touch. The Dogs got back on track last week with a comprehensive win in a game that suited their style perfectly however there is no way they will be afforded the freedom that they were given last week. West Coast have shown that their defensive pressure is up there with the best in the competition. Despite the Dogs good in's this week, I don't think they will all play and West Coast really should win this by 2-3 goals. Play West Coast -4.5 1.92 for 3 Units (BEST BET)

 

AFL ROUND EIGHT
Geelong v Collingwood
Either Team under 15.5 points
2 at 3.35 +4.7
What a great way to start round eight off with what is undoubtedly the most anticipated match of the season. I think it will live up to its billing. The Pies off the bye appear to finally be having some injury concerns with Jolly still missing and talk Maxwell will miss, although his form has not been great. Whilst the Cats welcome back Stevie. J and Captain Ling, I think the Cats will hold their own in the midfield battle and their defence has been outstanding all season. To me their concern is up forward for them while they have some of the best crumbing forwards in the business I think they will need 4-5 goals out of Pods and Hawkins to win. That said, I think this will be close the whole night. Play 2 units either Team under 15.5 points
North Melbourne v Melbourne NO PLAY
The Demons answered their critics last week by destroying the Crows, but as Dean Bailey said, their true test is how they respond this week. The game not being at the MCG won't help them, plus the loss of Jarmar is massive as his form was outstanding. They have a horrible record at Ethiad Stadium winning only one of their last ten matches there. The Kangaroos will view this as very winnable and they have been well supported in the early betting this week. But for me their form is not that great and I thought they were very poor last week - to tough call this one for me will pass - No Play
Adelaide v Gold Coast NO PLAY
Where do we start with Adelaide? One of the worst losses in the clubs history last week - they were awful and some serious question need to be asked about Neil Craig as a coach. Gold Coast were terrific last week - the pressure they applied to Brisbane all over the ground was outstanding but as we saw after their win against Port there is every chance of having a letdown this week being the young side they are. I think Crows will cover here but they’re to inconsistent for me to be backing. No Play
Brisbane v Essendon NO PLAY
Huge pressure this week is being applied to Voss and some of very questionable coaching tactics he used last week in the loss to Gold Coast. That said, apart from last week, their form has not been the worst. They desperately need Brown back which should be next week. The Bombers were good again last week in what was a cracking game against West Coast. Their interstate record is well documented and they will not be taking this match easily. Hird is desperate in improve their travelling record and on form it’s hard not to see them winning but the line looks around the mark so will pass. - No Play
Port Adel +37.5 v Sydney 3 at 1.92 -3
Sydney v The Swans scrapped and fought last week to get over the line against the Dogs. Their form has been a little bit erratic they don't seem to be able to blow sides away but always remain competitive. Port let us down late last week it what was a cruel loss at the line betting. They were great for three quarters - losing Rodan and some questionable umpiring decisions (Luke Hodge's mark in the goal square) cost us dearly. That said, I'm willing to give them a another go this week with some very good In's, I think that they can be competitive here and worth an interest and what looks a big line. Play Port Adelaide +37.5 points for 3 units.
St Kilda +20.5 v Hawthorn 3 at 1.90 -3
What do we make of the Hawks there sitting 4-2, but very hard to get a read on their form. As mentioned last week, their best is very good but they tend to drop off for long periods. They would have been hoping to have Rioli back so that hurts them. St Kilda are slowly looking to me like they’re getting back to playing the football we know they can play. Reiwoldt's 2nd half was terrific last week - if only he could kick straight!! Losing Montanga hurts but it’s hard to see them getting blown away this week and with a wet weekend forecast for Melbourne, I think that this one will go down to the wire. Play St Kilda +20.5 points for 3 units (BEST BET)
Bulldogs v Richmond NO PLAY
Again the Dogs were disappointing last week. Injuries are hurting them and they seem unable to cover the loss of key players, in particular Hall and Higgins. Hargrave and Addison back will help this week. The Tigers are flying and it would be great for footy if they keep winning. Recent history between these two has been dominated by the Dogs but this one looks like it will go down to the wire. Hard game to call will leave - No Play
Fremantle v West Coast NO PLAY
Fremantle were poor again at the MCG. Despite being on top early against the Tigers, they dropped off badly. Back at Subiaco they are a different side. West Coast have improved out of sight and it’s great to see Daniel Kerr getting back to his best as he is an outstanding footballer. This one will be a cracker and it’s impossible to split the two as the market suggests. No Play

 

AFL ROUND SEVEN
Port Adel. +28.5 v Hawthorn 3 at 1.92 -3

Port are coming off an awful loss against North Melbourne and been copping it all week. They do look a lot stronger this week with some very good inclusions. The Hawks are off the bye and are missing some decent players, none more important than Rioli. The Hawks have been okay this year but their problem is that there is too much difference between their best and worst, and they don't seem able to seem to string fourth quarters together. From what we have seen from Port recently, the Hawks should win here but I think this will go down to the wire. Port have shown that when they’re up for the contest they go ok. I'm expecting them to be up for this one. - Play Port Adelaide +28.5 points for 3 units. (BEST BET)

Bulldogs v Sydney NO PLAY
Very tough contest here which makes it hard to get a read on either side at the moment. The Bulldogs will be shattered to get so close to Collingwood last week only to get blown away late, while the Swans blew a three-goal lead in the wet at their home ground to get rolled by Carlton. Recent history between the two suggests that the Dogs will win, but I'm not so sure. I think it's a genuine pick it match - half keen on the Swans but will leave - No play.
Nth Melbourne +50.5 v Geelong 3 at 1.80 -3
The Cats at their favourite stomping ground have proved near impossible to beat in recent times and that won’t change this weekend. But we saw an improved effort from North Melbourne last week and no changes at the selection table is a good sign. I think the Roos will equate themselves okay here and with a bit of rain about the plus does look a tad on the big side. North Melbourne to be in the game long enough to cover the line for me - Play +50.5 points for 3 units.
Richmond v Fremantle NO PLAY
The game I'm most looking forward to this weekend. I love what Damian Hardwick is doing at Punt Road. Finally, after years in the wilderness there does appear to be some light at the end of the tunnel and in Dustin Martin they have got a player who could be rated as good as Judd in years to come. Fremantle are off the bye. They were really starting to put some good form together - they still have a long injury list and to be where they are is a good effort. They need to improve their poor record at the MCG though. Not sure they will this week but very hard to pick this one so I will leave - No Play.
Brisbane v Gold Coast NO PLAY
The first Q clash has it's been called. Amazingly, we see a side that has not won a game running around at 1.10ish, still it's hard to argue with the market. Brisbane have shown some good signs in recent weeks and will be too strong for the Coast. Drummond back is great news for them and with Brown back in a couple weeks don't be surprised to see them win a few games soon. As for here, the number looks around the mark - No Play.
Essendon v West Coast NO PLAY
Right now in my opinion, Essendon are the third best side in the comp. Last week was a training drill but they have managed solid football every week this season. They love Etihad Stadium and should get over the line here. Still, West Coast will be no walk over - they will give the Bombers a run for their money here. Kerr is getting better every week, Le Cras slotted back in well last week and Cox is having a massive season. I'm expecting a high quality match up here with Essendon winning by around what the line is. No Play.
Melbourne v Adelaide NO PLAY
Melbourne are currently under massive pressure with no one more than Dean Bailey feeling the heat. They have not advanced as most people thought they would have. Adelaide themselves, similar to Hawthorn can’t put four quarters together at the moment but I believe quite simply they are a better team than Melbourne. The Demons will come out very hard here but if the Crows can keep them under control early I believe that they can get the win here - still it would be a risky play so I will leave - No Play.
St Kilda +16.5 v Carlton 3 at 1.94 +2.82
Carlton was brilliant last week. led by the outstanding Judd to win in the wet trailing the Swans at the SCG. It was one of their better wins in recent times. One concern for them was that Kieran Jack did have a good tag going on Judd and his injury cost the Swans massively, so they Saints will need to clamp down on the great man. I liked what I saw from the Saints last week despite the loss there were some good signs and this really is season on the line stuff this week. They have won 9 of their last 10 against the Blues (Carlton did win their match last year by 10 goals). Still that I aside, this team is better than what they’re showing and I reckon they will go close on Monday night football. Play St Kilda +16.5 points.

 

AFL ROUND SIX
West Coast -7.5 v Melbourne 3 at 1.92 +2.76
Both teams are coming of the bye here so they should be pretty fresh for what looks an interesting matchup. Both team’s appear to be big improvers this season. Melbourne go in unchanged from their big win against the Gold Coast while West Coast welcome back Le Cras a lot sooner than expected. The Demons have a horrific record in Perth losing their last 10 matches. In saying that, West Coast's recent record at Subiaco has not been much better only winning one of their last ten home games. Still, I fancy the Coast here - I've been impressed with their season thus far and with Le Cras back, I think they will get over the top of the Demons in this one. Play West Coast -7.5 points for 3 units.
Sydney -3.5 v Carlton 3 at 1.90 -3
Sydney come off the bye after their loss to Geelong in what was a tough contest. Carlton just got over the line against Adelaide last week, but to be fair, they did have 11 more scoring shots and maybe should have won a little easier than they did. Carlton do appear to like an open running stlye of game and I don't think that they will get a chance at the SCG to do that. The Swans have added a couple of experienced hard bodies in Kennelly and Moore back into their side. I think they sould be able to shut down the Blues here so the minus -3.5 looks a little light to me and worth a bet - play Sydney -3.5 points.

 

AFL ROUND FIVE
Brisbane v St Kilda NO PLAY
A tough match to kick off Round Five. I have to think that St Kilda will respond to their poor start to the season. I thought Brisbane played well against Melbourne and really blew a great chance for a win. But I can't get a good read on this match, so it's a no play.
Port Adelaide v Gold Coast NO PLAY
It was a somewhat improved effort from Gold Coast last week despite their last quarter capitulation. The Power overan Adelaide in an impressive win. I marked the line here mid-sixites so will have to make it no play.
Adelaide +26.5 v Carlton 3 at 1.90 +2.7
Carlton got very lucky to get the two points last week with Essendon having the injury problems that they did, they really should have overun the Bombers. I must admit, I'm not convinced with Carlton and think they have come up far too short here. Adelaide were dissapointing last week but they have shown in patches that their best is very good. I'm expecting them to rebound from a week of heavy critisism and push Carlton all the way here. The line looks good value - play Adelaide +26.5 points for 3 units. (BEST BET)
Richmond to beat North Melb 3 at 2.05 +3.15
The Kangaroos pushed Fremantle last week but to me they're lacking a lot of fundmental skills and could possibly be a tad underdone from a injury riddled pre-season. The Tigers have had a very tough draw so far this year, meeting Carlton, St Kilda, Hawthorn and Collingwood, but they have showed promising signs in all those matches. I think that they will be considering themselves a great chance here especially with Kangaroos coming off another Perth trip. Add McGuane and Rance back to their backline and I think that they will get the job done. Play Richmond for 3 units.
Essendon +28.5 v Collingwood 2 at 1.90 -2
The true test of where the Bombers are at awaits them this week. They were brilliant last week to get the draw from the position they were in injury wise. I love Hille back in the side as he is massiveily important to them and I dont see any problems with them playing the 3 big men. Collingwood have been fantastic again this season without truly having been tested. I'm expecting them to be on Anzac Day and close to a five-goal start for Essendon does look worth a little nibble. Play Essendon +28.5 points for 2 units.
Fremantle v Western Bulldogs NO PLAY
A solid win from Fremantle last week. They are starting to show signs of some decent form despite their early season injury problems. The Bulldogs are a bit of an unknown factor after their poor loss to Essendon. They have had two pretty soft matches but I think that they will enjoy the open spaces of Subiaco. I'm half tempted to pull the trigger on them but reckon the market is probably around they mark. With the Bulldogs only slight value I will leave it - no play.
Hawthorn v Geelong
Either Team under 15.5 points
2 at 3.00 -2
Finally, what looks to be the standout match of the round. What a rich recent history these two share - the Cats have surpised a lot of people with their start to the year but it should not be too big a surpise as they ooze class all over the field and agian will be geniune contenders. The Hawks on the other hand are a little harder to read. Their top-six is as good as any team in the competion but their big concern is in defence as they do look small down back and if they do not cut supply into the oppistions forward line they will get hurt.  History suggests this one will going down to the wire with 7 of their last 8 matches being decided by 11 points or less. Play the tri-bet either team under 15 points for 2 units.

 

AFL ROUND FOUR
Collingwood v Richmond NO PLAY
The Tigers got blown away early last week but held their own after half time. There has definitely been improvement in Richmond this year, but the bad news for them this week is that they face Collingwood. The Magpies have lost Jolly but you would think that they will get the job done here. I do think the line is a tad high but will pass. No Play.
Hawthorn v West Coast NO PLAY
A couple of decent in’s for the Hawks in Mitchell and Rioli but the loss of Stratton down back will hurt as he is an impressive young defender. The Eagles have had a nice start to the season. They lacked composure late against the Swans and it cost them a perfect start to the season. The line looks around the mark here – if there is rain around in Tassie on Saturday the plus might be worth an interest but I will pass for now. No Play.
Essendon to beat Carlton 3 at 1.93 -0.1
What a performance it was from the Bombers last week. St Kilda tried to take them on with an attacking game style and got blown off the park. Carlton fought on quite well last week but were outclassed by the Pies. Recent history between these two has been dominated by Essendon with them winning 4 of the last 5 matches, the only exception Carlton’s 76pt win in Round 19 last year when Essendon was in a massive form slump. These two generally have high scoring matches and both like to attack, which to me will suit Essendon perfectly. Essendon look good value here - Play Essendon to win for 3 Units.
Sydney v Geelong NO PLAY
A tricky match up here. Sydney are a very tough nut to crack at the SCG as they love the confined spaces and their form this year has been very good. The Cats have had an excellent start to the season and have shown that they’re up for the fight when matches get tough as I expect this match to be. Was going to play the Swans here, but some good in’s for Geelong has swayed me. No play.
Port Adel. +18.5 v Adelaide 3 at 1.80 +2.4
Nothing like a Showdown to bring the best out of these two sides. Port Adelaide have reacted to their thumping last week by dropping K.Cornes and Pearce but are welcoming back some good players. Adelaide were very disappointing last week and their injury toll has only got worse - losing Stevens and Davis hurts them down back. I think this one is going to be close, therefore Port at the line looks value to me. Play Port Adelaide +17.5 or better points for 3 Units.
Gold Coast v Melbourne NO PLAY
Gold Coast showed some slight improvement last week in the second half but the Dogs did take the foot of the pedal somewhat. Plenty of talk today that Ablett will miss after apparently spraining his ankle on a stair case. He has not trained all week but the club is saying he will play. Melbourne gave away a five goal start last week only to overrun the Lions in the second half. They are struggling to put four quarters together but you would think they will have the Sun’s measure here. There is quite a bit of rain forecast for Brisbane this weekend so I will let this one pass. No Play.
Fremantle v North Melbourne NO PLAY
An impressive effort from the Dockers last week, pity it needed Pavlich’s record breaking game to be up and about. If they could produce that form of a consistent basis, they would be top 4 material. North Melbourne coming off their bye and hammering to Collingwood will be desperate to atone for that loss. I think they will be fairly competitive this week but I will let this one go also. No Play.

 

AFL ROUND THREE
Collingwood v Carlton NO PLAY
The Magpies are being talked up like the Grand Final was done and dusted already after wins over Port Adelaide and North Melbourne who were coming off a six day break from Perth. But they have done what was expected off them. The Blues had some nice match practice last week and one would expect them to get a reality check here. I think they will be in the game for a while but expect Collingwood to win by around what the line is. No Play.
Bulldogs v Gold Coast NO PLAY
The Dogs welcome back Lake and Gilbee which will give them a lot more drive for the back half. Gold Coast were awful last week. I was expecting something better than what we saw and on the back of that performance it’s impossible to see anything other than the Dogs handing out a flogging here. The line however is very high and I think there are better betting games this week. No play.
Adelaide -11.5 v Fremantle 3 at 1.90 -3
Adelaide copped some injuries from their Round One win over Hawthorn but do have some good in's. Their pre-season was good and the win over the Hawks was very impressive. Fremantle did shoot themselves in the foot last week but really should have beaten the Cats with the quality of players that were missing from the Geelong side. To me they are a long way off last year’s form. The Crows look tremendous value here, the only concern being how they react off the bye but my numbers have Adelaide winning by around four goals so I’ve got to play the line here. Play Adelaide -11.5 points for 3 units (BEST BET)
Richmond v Hawthorn NO PLAY

Richmond have been very good for first couple weeks of the season. They blew a good chance to beat the Blues in Round One and looked very stiff with the draw last week. Mc Guane is a huge out as the Hawthorn forwards are going to be very difficult to contain. That said, I still think the Tigers can turn this into a dog fight. The Hawks are still showing signs of being up and down side - basically this season we have seen two good quarters of football in the two matches they have played. Still, I have concerns over their consistency. Line looks around the mark so, No play.

West Coast v Sydney NO PLAY
West Coast have had a great start to the season and I don't think it is completely unexpected. They basically have recruits in Cox, Glass and Kerr who all missed most of last year. I don't like the loss of Beau Waters - he was fantastic last week and will be missed. The Swans did what they do best last week, bringing the game back to how they want it played. Whilst very lucky with some poor umpiring late in the game they managed to hold on. I’m leaning to the Swans here but will leave for now. No Play.
Melbourne -30.5 v Brisbane 2 at 1.92 -2
Melbourne have been hammered in the media this week in what is the normal over reaction. They’re a good team as we saw in the first half and I like what we saw in round one against the Swans. They will be up and about this week to respond to last week’s loss and I don't think they will have to many problems. Brisbane look like a shell of a side at the moment and their forward lines appears non-existent. There is some chance of rain in Melbourne on Sunday but still think the minus is worth a go. Play Melbourne -30.5 1.92 for 2 Units
Geelong v Port Adelaide NO PLAY
Geelong are showing that there is plenty of fight left in them. They return to their stomping ground this week where they undoubtedly have the biggest home ground advantage in the AFL - 23 wins on the trot by an average margin of around 10 goals. Port Adelaide was actually the last team to beat the Cats at Skilled Park but I can't see it happening this week. They do have some good inclusions but figure that they will be outclassed. Line is high enough though. No Play.
Essendon to bt St Kilda 3 at 2.05 +3.15
Certainly hard to get a read on the Saints at the moment. One tight loss and a draw and they do be appearing to be a lacking a certain something at the moment. Studying their team, there appears to be quite a few pretty average players and they’re not getting the best out of there great players. Hayes is a massive loss and the loss of Baker will hurt as well. Essendon copped a reality check last week, they had the better of the Swans for most the day and really should have put them away earlier. To me Essendon are simply playing the better football at the moment and recent history between these two suggests the Bombers will be too slick here for the Saint. Despite it being Riewoldt’s 200th I think the Bombers will be to good here. Play Essendon to win 2.05 3 Units.

 

AFL ROUND TWO
St Kilda v Richmond NO PLAY
St Kilda will be looking to play some better football than they produced last week - in what was an ugly contest against the Cats. Thought Richmond were impressive in patches against the Blues last week but lack the composure reqired to get over the line. Odds look right in this match.
Collingwood v Nth Melbourne NO PLAY
Impressive effort from the Pies last week. Port Adelaide really looked in control in the 3rd quarter getting within 3 goals of Collingwood only to still lose by 75 pts. North had a tough contest in Perth in the heat, but will relish playing the Pies as the home team and wearing the home guernsey. I’m expecting them to be competitive this week but can see the effects on last week’s game catching up with them late in this match. Markets looks around the mark so no play.
Port Adelaide v West Coast NO PLAY
Interesting match up here - Port will be a lot better than we saw last week and I believe WCE will be an improved side this season. The LeCras injury is a shocker for the Eagles but Kerr and Naitanui back in gives the side a lot better look on paper and if Cox can continue in the same vain we saw last week they will go close here. But again market is around where I marked it so will pass – No Play.
Gold Coast to lead at Quarter Time vs Carlton 2 at 3.35 -2
Well the time has finally arrived for the Gold Coast. Judging on what we saw in the pre-season, they should at the very least be competitive this year. You would think Carlton’s experience and bigger bodies will get them home in the end – but I’m expecting the Coast to get out the blocks quickly here so might go a bit of a different play - Gold Coast to lead at quarter time 3.35 for 2 Units.
Fremantle v Geelong NO PLAY
The Dockers fell over the line last week thanks to Brisbane injuries and some woeful umpiring late in the match. Freo do look to be a few weeks of there best form, the Cats were going to be a Best Bet for me here but today’s news where Selwood, Mooney and Lonergan are all late withdraws along with Scarlett who was already missing has put me off somewhat. I believe they still represent some value here purely based on the fact they are a better team than the Dockers but I will stay out due to the changes in the Geelong side. No Play
Bulldogs v Brisbane NO PLAY
Quite simply, the Dogs were awful last week. It was a disgraceful performance to get their season under way and they will be keen to atone this week against a depleted Brisbane outfit. I think they will as the Bulldogs do have a history of putting ordinary sides away whilst struggling against the elite teams. The season could not have got off to a worse start for the Lions. Losing Brown is a disaster and where they are going to score goals from I’m not sure. Like Geelong, the Dogs were going to be a play but they have not brought back Lake, Gilbee and Hargrave and that deprives them massive drive from the back line. I think the Dogs still win and win well whether the cover the high line I’m not sure so no play.
Sydney v Essendon NO PLAY
The Bombers are certainly the flavour of the month. They could not have been more impressive in their demolition of the Dogs last week. But we need to be cautious this week all of Essendon’s impressive form this year including NAB Cup has been displayed at Eithad Stadium, they will need to prove themselves on the road, where their recent history is very poor. The Swans should have got the job last week, they outplayed Melbourne for most of the day and poor kicking for goal cost them dearly. I'm tempted with the Swans here as I think they can strangle Essendon’s free flowing running game but again will leave as market looks right.
Hawthorn -16.5 v Melbourne 3 at 1.92 +2.76
The Hawks certainly appeared to have altered there game plan over the summer - they seemed intent on playing on at all costs against Adelaide last week and looked very slick in the 1st half only to be over run by a very strong Adelaide team. Some good inclusions for the Hawks this week with Hodge, Ellis and Guerra back on board, the Demons fought on quite well last week and to get a draw was a nice result for them. I do think however they will be outclassed this week by a Hawthorn team that despite going down last week look like they will be genuine contenders this season. Play Hawks -16.5 for 3 Units.

 

AFL ROUND ONE
Carlton vs Richmond NO PLAY
Let me kick off by saying it's a pleasure to be back on deck at OTP. I hope we can generate some decent profits through the season. History says that the Blues win this one pretty easily. Earlier in the week I was going to make the minus a play, but with predicted rain and the uncertainty of Round One, I'll pass on this game.
Geelong to beat St Kilda 3 at 2.29 +3.87
Interesting match here between two modern day rivals with the honours being evenly spread over recent times. St Kilda have come off a troublesome pre-season and will be keen to prove their doubters wrong. The Cats will appreciate a new voice with Chris Scott now calling the shots. St Kilda lose their big man in Gardiner and Koschitzke and goal sneak Schneider while the Cats are missing some key players, none more important than Chapman. Interestingly though he has been named as an emergency. I believe the Cats are far from a spent force and look value here – play Cats to win for 3 units.
Collingwood vs Port Adelaide NO PLAY
The Pies look up and about early and with Malthouse still calling the shots. I think it’s very doubtful will see the Pies drop off this year. In saying that, the start looks pretty high here. Port are missing some good players though, so will let this one go.
Adelaide vs Hawthorn NO PLAY
Maybe the best game of the round - both teams have had impressive pre-seasons. The Hawks do have a very poor record at AAMI Stadium but they have been very much hyped this pre-season – leaning towards the Crows but it watch them run around this week – No Play
Brisbane to beat Fremantle 3 at 2.20 -3
Brisbane had a horror early pre-season but in recent weeks have had a couple wins and look close to full strength. They will be desperate to get Drummond back into their team and how Brown performs will be interesting on a limited pre-season. Fremantle have had a very poor pre-season and think they are a few weeks off hitting last year’s form. With Freo's long injury list Brisbane look good value here. Play Brisbane 2.20 or better 3 Units
Essendon v Bulldogs NO PLAY
Great pre-season from the Bombers and now for the real thing. I’m pretty sure they will remain competitive throughout the season. This market looks around the mark - both teams are missing some important players so will let this one pass.
Melbourne v Sydney NO PLAY
Big move for the Swans in the last 24 hours and somewhat understandable with the Dee’s missing some good players and also dropping their last couple of pre-season matches. But they did towel up the Swans here last year and the Sydney backline does look somewhat depleted – hard to call this one. No Play
West Coast -6.5 v Nth Melb 3 at 2.00 -3
West Coat had a nice run in the NAB Cup and despite plenty of skill errors they do look a lot better than last year and with a bit more composure could have been in the NAB Cup final. They seem to be fairly fit and if Kerr can get back to somewhere near his best, they will trouble few sides this year. The Kangaroos have big injury problems already and with temperate of 35 degrees predicted for Perth on Sunday I think they are going to be up against here. Play West Coast -6.5 points

 

2010 RECORD

ROUND RESULT STAKES ROI BEST BET
G FINAL -3.00 3 -100% N/A
FINALS 3 -0.16 4 -4% N/A
FINALS 2 -3.00 3 -100%
FINALS 1 +3.02 4 76%
22 -1.48 9 -16%
21 -3.24 9 -36%
20 -2.26 8 -28%
19 -1.33 9 -15%
18 +0.71 9 8%
17 +2.81 8 35%
16 +0.60 9 50%
15 +0.64 7 9%
14 +0.90 8 11%
13 +5.77 8 72%
12 +0.51 9 6%
11 +2.44 9 27%
10 +3.30 6 55% N/A
9 -3.20 7 -46%
8 -3.78 9.5 -40%
7 +4.41 7 63%
6 -5.85 9 -65%
5 -0.37 8 -5%
4 +0.27 7.5 4%
3 +0.66 7 9%
2 -0.04 9 0%
1 +2.93 9.5 31%
TOTAL +0.75 units 186.5 0% 35%

 

2009 RECORD

ROUND RESULT STAKES ROI BEST BET
FINALS 4 +2.15 1 215% N/A
FINALS 3 -2.00 2 -100% N/A
FINALS 2 -5.00 5 -100% N/A
FINALS 1 +4.36 6 73%
22 -2.70 9 -30%
21 +3.20 9 36%
20 -1.24 9 -14%
19 +0.58 9 6%
18 -4.24 10 -42%
17 +1.55 8 19%
16 +0.34 10 3%
15 -0.30 8 -4%
14 +1.55 8 19%
13 +2.60 9 29%
12 +5.45 8 68%
11 -6.05 8 -76%
10 +1.76 6 29%
9 +2.54 9 28%
8 +1.67 8 21%
7 -6.00 6 -100%
6 -0.18 4 -5%
5 -0.02 4 0% N/A
4 +1.80 8 23%
3 -2.12 6 -35% N/A
2 +0.62 8 8%
1 -2.18 6 -36%
TOTAL -1.86 units 184 -1% 67%

 

2008 RECORD

ROUND RESULT STAKES ROI BEST BET
FINALS 3 -2.00 2 -100% N/A
FINALS 2 +2.24 2 112% N/A
FINALS 1 -2.10 6 -35% N/A
22 0.00 0 0% N/A
21 0.00 0 0% N/A
20 -3.00 3 -100%
19 -1.20 5 -24%
18 -0.16 4 -4%
17 -4.08 6 -68%
16 +3.68 4 92%
15 -3.16 7 -45%
14 +0.70 5 14%
13 -1.16 5 -23%
12 +4.33 5 87%
11 -3.66 7.5 -49%
10 +0.39 13 3%
9 +6.26 8 78%
8 -0.34 8 -4%
HOF -2.00 2 -100% N/A
7 +7.72 9.5 81%
6 +8.84 9 98%
5 +0.62 10 6%
4 +6.87 11 62%
3 +5.58 8 70%
2 +1.44 6 24%
1 -1.04 13 -8%
PRE 4 -3.00 3 -100% N/A
PRE 3 +2.10 3 70% N/A
PRE 2 0.00 0 0% N/A
PRE 1 +1.44 4 36% N/A
TOTAL +25.31 units 169 15% 70%

 

2007 RECORD

ROUND RESULT STAKES ROI BEST BET
FIN 4 +2.73 3 91% N/A
FIN 3 -2.00 2 -100% N/A
FIN 2 +3.30 2 165% N/A
FIN 1 +3.64 8 46% N/A
22 +3.74 4 94%
21 +4.49 9 50%
20 +4.58 7 65%
19 +8.28 8 104%
18 -2.00 2 -100%
17 -2.18 6 -36%
16 -1.40 9 -16%
15 +0.88 5 18%
14 -3.50 7 -50%
13 +1.93 11 18%
12 -6.24 10 -62%
11 +7.21 11 66%
10 -1.80 13 -14%
9 -0.46 8 -6%
8 +5.80 12 48%
7 -1.71 14 12%
6 +3.48 15 23%
5 +12.16 15.5 78%
4 -2.79 12.5 -22%
3 +4.44 9 49%
2 -0.58 14 -4%
1 +2.50 16 16%
PRE 4 +0.80 3 27% N/A
PRE 3 -2.50 2.5 -100% N/A
PRE 2 +7.42 4 186% N/A
PRE 1 +4.52 4 113% N/A
TOTAL +54.74 units 246.5 22% 82%


MARKET WATCH
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