WEEKLY AFL PICKS .. with OnThePunt's Aussie
Rules Guru
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AFL ROUND TWENTY-ONE
Bulldogs vs Geelong
Either Team under 15.5 points
2 at 3.15
+4.3
Bulldogs need to win to retain their spot
in the top 4 (but who wants to finish 4th?). Both teams are in good form
headed toward the finals although Geelong seem to be struggling with
injuries in the last few weeks. The loss of Johnson and Harley is offset
by several returns, but they are still some way from their best. This
should be a tight game, so bet 2 units on Either Team under 15.5.
Carlton -40.5 vs Melbourne
2 at 1.99
+1.98
Not much in selection here -
Melbourne have no incentive to win and are just trying out more
youngsters, but do they have incentive to try hard? Carlton will enjoy
the fast Etihad stadium and will probably run all over the Demons and
put up a big score. Bet 2 units on Carlton -40.5
(BEST BET)
Adelaide -30.5 vs West Coast
1 at 1.92
+0.92
West Coast have three wins on the trot and
are showing some form. Adelaide have faltered here and there but have a
few big runaway wins against weaker opposition when at home this season.
West Coast have done reasonably at AAMI but may run out of steam against
a top team. Bet 1 unit on Adel -31.5 or better
Brisbane vs Port Adelaide
NO PLAY
Brisbane are safe in the 8, but will want
to come back after some weak performances in the last few weeks, and
will also want revenge for their drubbing at AAMI. Port know they don't
deserve to be in the 8, and while they get back Motlop, they will miss
Burgoyne and Carr. They have done reasonably well at the Gabba,
including amazingly two draws. The line of 31.5 has me very ambivalent
about this one, so NO PLAY
Richmond +19.5 vs Hawthorn
1 at 1.92
-1
Richmond welcome back Polak - will the
banner have a huge tram on it? - and debut Thomson. They have been
abysmal the last few weeks, but seem to match up well against Hawthorn.
The Hawks are short a couple of ruckman, and Simmonds might help
Richmond around the ground and take advantage of this. Bet 1 unit on
Rich +18.5 or better
St Kilda -43.5 vs North Melbourne
2 at 2.00
-2
The pressure valve on the Saints has been
relesed, and they can now focus on the big prize. They have dropped Ball
& Hudghton, while North are still rotating. StK should put up a big
score on their favourite ground against a weak opposition, so bet 2
units on StK -43.5
Sydney +28.5 vs Collingwood
1 at 1.91
-1
Collingwood are the form team of the comp,
and are looking very good. They will be pleased to have Fraser back as
they build momentum heading toward the finals. While the 'Pies have won
their last seven against Sydney, the Swans have done reasonably well at
the MCG, and should cover what is quite a big line. Bet 1 unit on Syd
+27.5 or better
Fremantle vs Essendon
NO PLAY
Essendon are brimming with confidence
after last week's upset win, and are in control of their own destiny
with regards to the 8. However, they will miss Dempsey and Ryder, and
they have not done well in the West, having lost to West Coast, and with
poor records against both teams at Subiaco. This game should be great
for some in-play betting, but otherwise, there is little value so NO
PLAY
AFL ROUND TWENTY
Hawthorn vs Adelaide
Either Team under 15.5 points
1 at 3.15
-1
Hawthorn will be happy to get Sewell back,
and Hentschel returns for Adelaide. It looks to be all over for Hawthown
given the run home, and despite losing the last two, Adelaide looks
reasonable safe for the 8. I expect Hawthorn to bounce back from three
straight losses, and this should probably be a close one. Bet 1 unit on
Either Team under 15.5.
Richmond +40.5 vs Collingwood
1 at 1.92
-1
Surprising to see Jade the Blade only drop
two after last week's awful performance against Sydney. Bowden comes
back for his farewell game so expect plenty of sideways kicks in their
own defensive 50. Collingwood have a habit of blowing out games against
poor opposition, and this is exactly what happened to Richmond last
week. However, there is a bit of emotion to this game, so bet 1 unit on
Richmond +40.5
West Coast vs Nth Melb
NO PLAY
At selection, these are clearly two
winning teams brimming with confidence so no changes! North have not
done very well at Subiaco, and may have an inflated sense of their
ability after last week's crushing of Melbourne. I think this line is a
bit high, but a bit too close to call, so NO PLAY.
Brisbane vs W Bulldogs
NO PLAY
Brisbane will be happy to have this game
at home after stumbling for the last two weeks, while the 'Dogs with a
difficult run home, will want to do well here to retain a top-4 spot
(although who really wants to finish 4th this year?). They get back some
goal-kicking with Murphy and Welsh. The doesn't appear to be much value
here. NO PLAY.
Sydney +13.5 vs Geelong
2 at 1.96
+1.92
Sydney will miss the run of McVeigh, and
while Geelong gets back Scarlett and others, it really looks like the
season is taking its toll on them as they head toward the finals. They
have a strong recent record against Sydney, and the bigger ANZ Stadium
may suit them better. Still, I don’t think Geelong will run away with
this, so bet 2 units on Sydney +13.5
Fremantle -5.5 vs Melbourne
2 at 1.92
-2
With only 26 fit players to pick from at
Melbourne this week, you'd have to be hard pressed not to get a game,
while Freo welcome back McPharlin and Hayden. Freo are finally coming in
to some form, so expect them to chalk up a win against an undermanned
Melbourne. Bet 2 units on Fremantle -6.5 or better.
Port Adelaide to bt Carlton
1 at 2.11
-1
This is quite an intriguing match-up. Port
are go from terrible away from AAMI to nearly unbeatable at home, and
even their coach doesn’t think they deserve to be in the 8. They bring
back some experience this week to face Carlton, who are running hot, and
have an unchanged line up. Carlton’s record at AAMI is as bad as Port’s
is good, so bet 1 unit on Port Adelaide to win.
Essendon +37.5 vs St Kilda
2 at 1.92
+1.84
Essendon are stumbling toward the
end of the season, and will be watching other results closely. They have
been hurt by injury as the season takes its toll, but get a few players
back this week. The Saints also get back a handful after last week’s
bizarre game, and appear to be doing things easily. Considering the
relative importance of the game to each team, and the Bombers good
record at Etihad Stadium, this line looks a bit too high, so bet 2 units
on Essendon +37.5 (BEST BET)
AFL ROUND NINETEEN
Carlton +20.5 vs Geelong
2 at 1.91
+1.82
After results in several other games
in the last fortnight went in their favour, Carlton will be keen to
consolidate their top 8 spot. Geelong still have several players out,
and are coming off two very close wins. At the MCG in windy, wet
conditions, this probably won't be a huge Geelong win, so bet 2 units on
Carl + 20.5 (BEST BET)
West Coast +46.5 vs W. Bulldogs
1 at 1.92
+0.92
Bulldogs have this week, and then three
tough games heading in to the finals. They have another very generous
line against West Coast, who broke the drought at home last week.
Surprisingly, they have done well against the 'Dogs at this ground, so
have a reasonable chance of covering the line. Bet 1 unit on WC +46.5
Hawthorn vs St Kilda
NO PLAY
What can I say after the bizarre
happenings this week? The Saints appear to have designated this as the
game they are comfortable losing before the finals, and have 'rested'
several key players. Good luck to the people who backed the Hawks at
around $3 before the plunge. For the rest of us, there is no value here
so NO PLAY.
Essendon vs Brisbane
NO PLAY
After three straight losses, Essendon are
decimated by injuries, and their finals chances are dwindling. They
would like to bounce back this week, but can come up short against a
more experienced Brisbane, who will also want to bounce back after last
week's second half fade, and will be boosted by the return of Bradshaw.
I don’t feel confident predicting anything, so NO PLAY
Adelaide vs Collingwood
Either Team under 15.5 points
2 at 3.15
-2
Nothing significant at selection.
Collingwood do very well at AAMI, and are running hot. Adelaide can put
themselves into top 4 contention with a win. These teams have played a
few close ones, so a Collingwood blow-out win is less likely, so bet 2
units on either team under 15.5.
Nth Melbourne -17.5 vs Melbourne
2 at 1.92
+1.84
North finally have a serious chance to put
up a win with their new coach, and won't make the mistake of playing
down to their opponents. Melbourne are just rotating players - in and
out of the team, and in and out of every position on the ground. After a
couple of close losses, this will probably be a big one. Bet 2 units on
North -18.5 or better
Richmond vs Sydney
NO PLAY
Richmond played one of their worst games
and won, and Sydney played one of their best and lost. The odds look
very wrong to me, but I don't see value, so NO PLAY
Port Adelaide -11.5 Fremantle
2 at 1.96
-2
After last week, Port have a serious sniff
at the finals. They have played very poorly away from home, but Subiaco
is an exception, where they have done very well in recent times. Freo
did far better than expected last week, but what incentive to they have
to win? The line is quite small, so bet 2 units on Port -11.5.
AFL ROUND EIGHTEEN
North Melbourne vs Carlton
NO PLAY
Carlton were a bit savage at selection
after last week's poor performance, and Simpson plays his farewell game
for the 'Roos. So far a new coach has still been unable to engineer a
victory - perhaps they will lift for a farewell game like this? Carlton
have not had a good recent record against North, but have broken some of
those this year. My gut says North will cover the line and maybe pull
off an upset, but stay safe - NO PLAY
Bulldogs -50.5 vs Fremantle
1 at 1.96
-1
'Dogs will miss Higgins and Murphy but get
Gilbee back in, and Freo welcome back Headland. Freo haven't won in
Melbourne, and the 'Dogs have made a habit of crushing weak teams
(especially at Etihad Stadium) by very big margins, so perhaps the huge
line of 51.5 is justified. Bet 1 unit on WB -51.5 or better
Geelong -24.5 vs Adelaide
2 at 1.97
-2
Adelaide had the opportunity to test
themselves against a top-2 team the other week, and failed miserably.
With a derby win in between, they now have to go to Kardinia Park for
the second half of that test. Geelong have faltered since their loss to
StK and have some injury problems. Still, they will be too strong at
home, and should cover the line. Bet 2 units on Geelong -25.5 or better
Sydney +35.5 vs St Kilda
1 at 1.92
+0.92
The Saints continue on their marching
ways, with only this and next week (against Hawthorn in Tassie) looking
like danger games before the finals. Sydney will fancy themselves at
home to stop up St Kilda's run, and with doubts around Koschitzke's
fitness, this might be closer than the odds dictate. Bet 1 unit on Syd
+35.5
Brisbane +19.5 vs Collingwood
2 at 1.92
-2
This is a huge game for both teams,
with big implications for a top-four finish. While the 'Pies had a
strong win against Carlton last week, that was very much rivalry
revenge, and they are still without Fraser. They may also be distracted
by all the coach succession nonsense in the press this week. Brisbane
are missing a few but always do well at these games. Bet 2 units on Bris
+18.5 or better (BEST BET)
Richmond -20.5 vs Melbourne
2 at 1.93
-2
Richmond is finding some momentum and
rallying behind caretaker coach Rawlings, and coming off a strong upset
win where they finally played four quarters of football. They will be
keen to take revenge on the Demons who humiliated them earlier in the
year and sent them spiraling further down. Melbourne keep rotating
players and sorting out their list for next year. Bet 2 units on Rich
-21.5
Port Adelaide vs Hawthorn
NO PLAY
Both these sides are still mathematically
in it, but Port can't win away from home, and Hawthorn aren't quite
lifting enough, and leaving their run a bit late. Hawthorn should win
this one, but I don't see any value bets. NO PLAY.
West Coast +15.5 vs Essendon
2 at 1.92
+1.84
Big danger game here for Essendon. Quite a
few key players out injured after last week's loss which will affect
their firepower, and they haven't done well at Subiaco in recent
history. West Coast have gone for some speed to combat the run of the
Bombers, and will put up a good fight. Bet 2 units on WC +15.5
AFL ROUND SEVENTEEN
Carlton vs Collingwood
NO PLAY
Rivalry round this weekend, and it opens
with the biggest. Collingwood will want to revenge the big loss earlier
in the season (from which they bounced back with 7 wins on the trot),
but have really missed Fraser and will also miss Brown this week. The
market has it at just about evens, so I don't see any value bets. NO
PLAY.
Hawthorn +19.5 vs Geelong
2 at 1.91
+1.82
Geelong will be very happy to get
Bartel back, and Hawthorn have steadied in the last couple of weeks as
they attempt to make an unlikely last ditch move on the finals. These
teams match up quite well, so it should be closer than the line
indicates. Bet 2 units on Hawthorn +18.5 or better
(BEST BET)
Fremantle -5.5 vs West Coast
1 at 1.97
-1
Some big ins this week for Freo with
Pavlich and Sandilands back, while the Eagles are still without Cox and
Kerr. With Richmond and North now a half-game ahead, this game has huge
implications for draft picks. Freo are probably playing for a lot more,
so bet 1 unit on Fremantle -6.5 or better
Brisbane vs North Melbourne
NO PLAY
Brisbane will miss Bradshaw up forward,
but always do well at home, and North have their eyes clearly on next
year. The big question is: how much fight will they put up, or will this
be another bulldozer job? I am not confident either way, so NO PLAY
Western Bulldogs +11.5 vs St Kilda
2 at 1.92
-2
No matter what everyone says, StK will
definitely benefit from a loss some time between now and the end of the
home and away season. Without Koz & Dawson, their side looks the
"weakest" is has in several weeks. This game is a big measuring stick
for the Dogs, who would like to stay third and not have to play StK
again in the first week of the finals, and both sides play Etihad
Stadium very well. Bet 2 units on WB +11.5
Sydney -16.5 vs Melbourne
2 at 1.91
+1.82
Melbourne scraped in to cover a huge line
last week against Geelong (missed it by that much), and celebrated by
bringing in even more youngsters. Sydney keep underperforming, can do
better, and will want to bounce back from a couple of losses before they
play StK next week. Bet 2 units on Syd -16.5
Richmond +24.5 vs Essendon
1 at 1.91
+0.91
Richmond will treat last week’s debacle as
a loss, and the return of Cousins, Cotchin and Brown will make a big
difference. They have made a habit of playing games in parts, and
falling away dramatically. Against the fast-scoring & fast-running
Essendon, they will struggle to keep up for a full game. Nevertheless, I
reckon they will cover the line, so bet 1 unit on Rich +23.5 or better
Adelaide vs Port Adelaide
NO PLAY
No love lost between these two in the
second derby. Port have most of their wins this year at home, but no
advantage for them this week. Adelaide are a contender and need the win
more, but this is very hard to pick. NO PLAY
AFL ROUND SIXTEEN
Bulldogs under 39.5 vs Essendon
2 at 2.25
+2.5
No changes to either team after a good
win, and a very close loss last week. Both teams play very well at this
venue, but the Dogs have had the more recent ascendancy, and will want
to come back after last week's loss. Essendon's two losses this season
at Etihad Stadium have been close ones, so bet 2 units on WB under 39.5
pts.
Sydney +26.5 vs Carlton
1 at 1.90
-1
As they have been all season, the bookies
are again being very generous to Carlton, despite their poor record
against Sydney. Carlton get back Scotland, and the Swans welcome
McVeigh. Bet 1 unit on Sydney +25.5 or better
Geelong -47.5 vs Melbourne
2 at 2.01
-2
After two tough losses in a row, Geelong
welcome back plenty of experience but lose Bartel. After two shock wins
in a row, Melbourne head out to Skilled Stadium where Geelong have
always been given big lines. They fell short of covering a few weeks ago
against the inconsistent Port, but this week will want to respond with a
drubbing. Bet 2 units on Geelong -47.5
Hawthorn +18.5 vs Collingwood
1 at 1.92
+0.92
Fraser is a huge loss for the 'Pies; he
was certainly missed in the fourth quarter last week as the 'Dogs surged
back to nearly take the game. Hard to know how Hawthorn will perform; at
the moment every game is essential for them to stay in touch. They will
probably come closer than we think, so bet 1 unit on Haw +18.5
Fremantle vs Brisbane Lions
NO PLAY
After last week's embarrassing
performance, Freo have brought in some kids, and will miss Schammer,
while Brisbane are buoyant after last week's big win, and get Brennan
back as well. It could get a little wet, and Brisbane don't do quite so
well over there, so I think NO PLAY.
Port Adelaide -32.5 vs West Coast
2 at 1.96
+1.92
Port have taken out their surprise loss
last week to Melbourne on a couple of veterans, and replaced them with
some energetic youngsters, and play much better at home. West Coast
don't do well at AAMI Stadium, and are missing Cox and Kerr. On a bright
day, this will probably be a big win for Port, so bet 2 units on Port
-32.5
Richmond vs North Melb
NO PLAY
No big selection changes in this hugely
significant battle between #13 & #14 on the ladder. After two wins to
Melbourne, the race for the wooden spoon has really hotted up, so there
is pride at stake. Also, despite some brave performances, North has
still not achieved a "new coach win", which is surprising. No wonder the
odds are just about even. NO PLAY.
Adelaide +21.5 vs St Kilda
2 at 1.91
-2
King is back for the Saints after
suspension, and Adelaide get back Burton plus some kids. Adelaide have
won 7 in a row, and it's 15 for StK. Adelaide have matched up well
against StK in the past, and despite their dominating record at Etihad
Stadium, this one will probably be a bit closer. Bet 1 unit on Adel
+20.5 (BEST BET)
AFL ROUND FIFTEEN
Bulldogs vs Collingwood
NO PLAY
Should be a ripper. Both teams firing hard
with strong recent wins against seemingly quality opposition. No major
team changes. This will be a good test for the Dogs to see if they
deserve to stay firmly at #3 on the ladder. Both these teams have a
habit of really pulling away quickly once they get on top, and this
could go either way. The line of 11.5 looks too close to call so NO
PLAY.
Sydney vs Essendon Over 186.5
1 at 1.90
-1
Essendon are coming off a big loss will
bounce back hard, although Sydney have been strong at home all year.
Sydney will welcome back Ablett, while Essendon get a few key inclusions
at the expense of Monfries. This game pitches the fast run of Essendon
against Sydney's stoppage game at home. The line is not good value, but
try betting 1 unit on Total Score more than 186pts.
Richmond +24.5 vs Carlton
2 at 1.93
+1.86
Expectations from both teams were very
different in the season opener. This time, Carlton see this as a game
they ought to win, and Richmond would like to exact some revenge. Tigers
will miss Foley in the midfield. On a cold wintry day at the MCG, this
might be something of a slog, so Richmond should cover the line again.
Bet 2 units on Richmond +24.5
Brisbane Lions +17.5 vs Geelong
2 at 1.92
+1.84
Brisbane had an unpleasant lapse
last week, and now come up against a physically and emotionally bruised
Geelong, who have 5 key players out (if you include Johnson's late
withdrawal last week). Brisbane too will feel the loss of Brennan and
Hooper. Still, with Brisbane at home against an underpowered Geelong,
the line looks tantalizing, so bet 2 units on Bris +17.5
(BEST BET)
Fremantle +35.5 vs Adelaide
1 at 1.92
-1
Adelaide are on a roll and welcome back
their captain; Freo faded away in the last quarter yet again, and have
three of their most experienced players out, as they test out the
youngsters. The line looks a little high to me, and it could be a little
wet, so bet 1 unit on Freo +34.5 or better
Hawthorn vs Nth Melbourne
NO PLAY
Is Hawthorn's season over? After three
losses in a row, it's starting to get difficult, and they must be
wondering how to start winning games again; getting Rioli back might
help, but we've been saying that all along as players from last season
have returned. And since North's coaching change, they have produced two
"honourable" losses, and the loss of Pratt won't make a win any more
likely this week. I reckon the Hawks will finally bounce back, but this
line looks too close, so stay safe and NO PLAY.
Port Adelaide -16.5 vs Melbourne
2 at 1.92
-2
Both teams won last week; an emotional one
for Melbourne at home, and a strong home performance from Port to break
a poor run. Melbourne will miss Sylvia, and Port welcome back Cornes. I
don't expect a resurgence from Melbourne, and Port are a better team
than their record over the last few weeks has shown. When they win, they
win strongly, so bet 2 units on Port -17.5 or better
West Coast vs St Kilda
NO PLAY
Saints coming off physically tough game
and have shown that they can stand up to the best. The pressure of
maintaining a perfect record is still there, and there may be a
short-term "hangover" from a big win, so one of these days, they may
drop a game. West Coast welcome back Cox & Kerr, and their only wins
have been at home this year. The Saints don't do fantastically well in
the West, and prefer the smaller faster grounds. This line looks a bit
too close to call, so NO PLAY.
AFL ROUND FOURTEEN
Collingwood vs Essendon
NO PLAY
Collingwood are really flying and close to
full strength, and will be keen to avenge their earlier loss when they
were still finding their straps for the season. Essendon will miss
Watson in the midfield, and while I expect them to cover the line, the
'Pies have a way of running away with things when they are on top. NO
PLAY
West Coast to bt Melbourne
1 at 1.90
-1
The selection revolving door continues at
Melbourne, while West Coast haven't won an away game for a very long
time. A game like might be a question of who loses rather than who wins.
The market can't make up its mind which team is worse - I think it's
Melbourne, so bet 1 unit on West Coast at 1.90 or better
Port Adelaide vs Brisbane
NO PLAY
Brisbane are running hot, and Port, after
a few good games, have really floundered in recent games. They will
welcome the opportunity to play at home and regain some form. The line
looks too close for comfort, so NO PLAY.
Richmond +24.5 vs Adelaide
1 at 1.93
+0.93
Richmond are trying out more and more of
the kids are their eyes are firmly on the future. Adelaide take the
opportunity to try out a youngster against a Tiger team with no huge
incentive to win. Despite Adelaide's good record against Richmond, I
think the Tigers will put up a little more fight under Rawlings at an
"away" home game. Bet 1 unit on Rich +24.5.
Hawthorn +17.5 vs Bulldogs
2 at 1.92
-2
The 'Dogs will miss Giansiracusa but are
still tracking very well. Hawthorn must be wondering how they can get
their season back on track, if at all. After several disappointments,
expect them to come back one of these weeks, so bet 2 units on Hawthorn
+17.5.
Sydney vs North Melbourne
NO PLAY
Sydney welcome back some experience, and
North continue their player rotation. Both teams put up reasonable
fights last week but fell short. On a sunny Sunday afternoon at the SCG,
Sydney could either destroy their opposition by a big margin, or play a
very close one. Take the safe option and NO PLAY.
St Kilda +11.5 vs Geelong
2 at 1.90
+1.8
Very interesting situation. Both
teams are unbeaten this year, both in excellent form and almost at full
strength, both with wins against quality opposition. And yet the bookies
still put the Saints at 10.5 point underdogs at their favourite venue.
Bet 2 units on StK +10.5 or better (BEST BET)
Carlton -7.5 vs Fremantle
2 at 1.91
+1.82
Both teams coming off big beatings last
week where they were expected to do a lot better. Some key losses to
Freo, and the axe comes in at Carlton. The Blues do well over there and
should come home strongly against a local team known for fading. Bet 2
units on Carlton -8.5 or better.
AFL ROUND THIRTEEN
Essendon +15.5 vs Carlton
2 at 1.90
+1.8
Carlton are coming off a good performance against the Saints (although a
loss is a loss), and will welcome back Thornton. Essendon will miss some
key players. Ratten is yet to beat Knights, so whatever the case, this
will probably be a close one. Bet 2 units on Ess +15.5
(BEST BET)
Fremantle +41.5 vs Collingwood
1 at 1.90
-1
Freo will be encouraged by last week's effort (although a loss is a
loss), but are really thinking about the future. In the past they have
matched up well against the 'Pies, although the venue will certainly
favour the home team. Still, the line is quite big, so I like Freo to
cover it. Bet 1 unit on Freo +40.5 or better
Adelaide vs Sydney
NO PLAY
Adelaide are really hitting their straps with four wins on the trot, and
while Sydney were looking good earlier, they have faltered in a big way
in recent weeks. I expect them to bounce back this week after a
disappointing finish last week against Collingwood, but the line looks
just a little too close to call. NO PLAY
Brisbane -43.5 vs Melbourne
2 at 2.00
+2
More kiddies on rotation at Melbourne, and another crushing defeat
looming against the in-form Lions at home. They continue to suffer heavy
losses, and while they might start well, they will eventually be
overcome in a big way. Bet 2 units on Bris -43.5
West Coast vs Hawthorn
NO PLAY
The Hawthorn line up is finally starting to look more like last year,
particularly with some key defensive players back, but it may be too
late to have a big impact. With a tough draw, this is a must-win to stay
in touch. West Coast will miss Cox and others. I like Hawthorn to cover
the line, but it’s a bit close with them playing away, so stay safe and
NO PLAY.
Geelong -47.5 vs Port Adelaide
2 at 1.93
-2
Geelong have covered big lines at home in all but one game this season,
and after relatively "poor" performances in the last two games in Perth,
will be happy to be back playing at Kardinia Park. Port have some big
outs and have had two weeks to mull over their mauling against the Dogs.
Expect Geelong to continue the pattern, and bet 2 units on Geel -47.5.
North Melbourne +36.5 vs Bulldogs
2 at 1.90
+1.8
Dogs are coming off three crushing wins in a row, are at full strength,
and have some important games against top teams coming up in the next
few weeks. North have a new coach, captain Harvey back, and will want to
put up a spirited performance. They probably have enough in them to
cover the line. Bet 2 units on North +35.5 or better.
St Kilda vs Richmond
NO PLAY
The Saints are at full strength and coasting toward the big showdown
next week. They always play well against Richmond, especially at Etihad.
While the young Tigers will want to impress, Rawlings' perfect coaching
record will take a hit this week, and this could easily blow out to
another big one. However, the line looks a little close to call, so NO
PLAY.
AFL ROUND TWELVE (SPLIT)
Essendon -25.5 vs Melbourne
2 at 1.95
+1.9
Essendon are bolstered with the return of
Fletcher and Winderlich, and after two losses, will be relishing the
opportunity to hand a beating to Melbourne at the fast Jihad Stadium.
What can we say about Melbourne? The line has gone from 21.5 to 25.5 but
still the Bombers should cover it easily. Best 2 units on Ess -25.5.
Sydney vs Collingwood
NO PLAY
After the recent return of some key
players, Collingwood are finally settling in to some good form. Sydney
will really miss Bolton, and playing at the smaller SCG instead of the
wide expanses of ANZ Stadium. All of this should favour the 'Pies, but I
am weary of Sydney coming off two losses in a row and needing a bounce.
NO PLAY.
Fremantle +45.5 vs Geelong
2 at 1.90
+1.8
As Geelong prepare to smash another bottom
dweller, they again have a huge line of 45.5. They have covered it in
most home games, but it will be far more difficult playing their second
consecutive game at Subiaco. Bet 2 units on Freo +45.5.
AFL ROUND TWELVE (SPLIT)
Carlton vs St Kilda
NO PLAY
After a gutsy win away (which racks up home & away this year against
Bris), Carlton will be confident they can give the Saints a shake. The
Saints have a habit of shutting teams down at Etihad Stadium - they
don't want this to be a shoot-out. There is talk of StK benefitting from
a loss at some point just to take the pressure off, but I doubt if this
week will be the one. The line looks like a difficult call, so best to
stay away. NO PLAY.
Bulldogs vs Port Adelaide
NO PLAY
One of two important games for the "middle pack" this week. Both teams
welcome back some useful players; both coming off good wins. The line
looks overly generous to the Dogs, as they thumped Port at the same game
last year. I reckon Port might cover the line but it’s a tough call, so
NO PLAY.
Richmond -5.5 vs West Coast
2 at 1.92
+1.84
Coburg will benefit from an injection of experience this week. In the
meantime, between the new coach, return of some young energetic
regulars, and Richmond's good record against WC, Tigers fans should
welcome a win. Eagles will welcome Kerr and Wirrpanda. Debuts of
Naitanui & Vickery overshadow Cousins, who is finally starting to have
an impact. The line has narrowed from 11.5 to 7.5, and Richmond should
cover that easily. Bet 2 units on Rich -7.5 or bwtter
(BEST BET)
Hawthorn -14.5 vs Brisbane Lions
1 at 1.97
-1
Brisbane will be disappointed at last week's loss and will want to come
back hard, but chilly, wet Aurora stadium is the wrong place. They
welcome back Merrett, and the Hawks lose the talented Rioli. Still,
Hawthorn have a strong advantage with the conditions, and should cover
the line. Bet 1 unit on Haw -16.5 or better.
Adelaide -31.5 vs North Melbourne
1 at 1.91
+0.91
Adelaide are coming into some good form, and North are a total mess. A
couple of good youngsters in, but something of a revolving door as they
continue try-outs. They may show some endeavour for half a game, but
will probably get blown away by the end. Bet 1 unit on Adel -31.5.
AFL ROUND ELEVEN
Richmond +27.5 vs Bulldogs
2 at 1.91
-2
Farewell Terry, it's been fun (or maybe
not). Without the speed and pressure of Nahas and White, Richmond will
struggle to produce a win for Wallace's farewell, and there will be no
mercy from the Dogs. However, this won't be a thrashing, and line looks
quite attractive, so bet 2 units on Rich + 27.5.
North Melbourne +39.5 vs St Kilda
1 at 1.91
-1
North are oscillating
between wins and losses. The Saints welcome back Hudghton, and after a
couple of close ones, are coming off a big win against lowly Melbourne
up in the Gold Coast. One of these days, they will drop a game, and the
line here looks a little high. Bet 1 Unit on North +39.5.
Brisbane Lions -9.5 vs Carlton
2 at 1.97
-2
Carlton get back some
experience, and they will need every bit of it playing away against
Brisbane. Amazingly, Carlton have been favourites in every game for the
first 10 rounds, and they are 5-5. Again, they are overrated here by the
market, and Brisbane will win comfortably at home. Bet 2 units on Brisbane
-9.5 (BEST BET)
Port Adelaide -29.5 vs Fremantle
2 at 1.99
-2
Port have been hit by a
few injuries, and will want to come back hard after two very
disappointing losses, particularly the second half fade against a
resurgent Collingwood. Freo have done well at AAMI but have been hurt by
some big injuries this week, and will struggle to prevent a big score
against them. Bet 2 units on Port -29.5.
Adelaide to bt Essendon
1 at 1.95
+0.95
Essendon have been hit
hard by injuries, and it could be that their
fast game is taking toll. They have not lost two in a row all season,
and will want to bounce after the big loss to Geelong. Adelaide have
lost the games they should've won, and vice versa, and actually are a
better side than their record shows. Bet 1 unit on Adel at 1.95
Hawthorn vs Sydney Swans
NO PLAY
Hawthorn are really
struggling, and despite players starting to come back, you have to
wonder if they can lift for the remainder of the season. Sydney have
also been up and down, and both teams are coming off hurtful losses last
week. The line looks a little high, and Sydney should cover it, but the
weather may be a bit wet, so NO PLAY.
West Coast vs Geelong
NO PLAY
West Coast have two key
players out with injuries, and Geelong's backline is a little depleted.
While they enjoy beating up on bad teams, they are just coming off one
of those, and this is a far way game. The line of 39.5 looks a bit close
to call, so NO PLAY.
Melbourne vs Collingwood
NO PLAY
Collingwood are on the
rise after two strong wins, and the return of some key players, more of
whom come back this week. Melbourne welcome their number one draft pick,
but the big question is whether this will be another game that Melbourne
try really hard but fall short, or another strong Collingwood finish on
a big Queen’s Birthday Monday. The Ds are coming off a drubbing, and
will want to put up a showing. The safe bet here is NO PLAY.
AFL ROUND TEN
Carlton -26.5 vs West Coast
1 at 1.94
+0.94
Carlton are without Waite, and coming off a solid away loss that
would’ve helped them (and their fans) re-assess where they really belong
on the ladder. West Coast were disappointing last week against a
Collingwood who needed to show something despite being undermanned, and
while not fantastic this year, are under-rated. Which team will bounce
back harder after big losses? Carlton at home should cover the line. Bet
1 unit on Carl -26.5.
Western Bulldogs vs Sydney
NO PLAY
One of two “home” games being played away this week. Dogs have a few
injury concerns with Higgins and Gilbee, which will hurt. Both sides
play well at Manuka oval style. While I think this should be a cracker
of a game, historically these games have not been close, so I’m a bit
stumped. NO PLAY.
Brisbane -3.5 vs North Melbourne
2 at 1.95
+1.9
North are up and down like a yoyo from week to week, and still missing
some regular players. Brisbane are having a great season, have steady
form over the last few weeks, and gave StK a big shake last week. They
also play well and can put up big scores at Ethiad Stadium. The price
looks very wrong to me – Brisbane should win this in a canter and well.
Bet 2 units on Brisbane -8.5 or better (BEST BET).
St Kilda vs Melbourne
NO PLAY
Melbourne have put in very “heartening” performances in recent weeks,
but continue to fall short, and have been regularly covering the lines.
This will be a pattern for them for the rest of the season. StK are
coming off some tough games that are finally challenging them. The line
of 40.5 is quite high, and while I think StK will cover it, it’s safer
to stay away from this game as it’s in at Gold Coast Stadium. NO PLAY.
Fremantle vs Richmond
NO PLAY
Boring week - no coaching controversy. Cousins might be back and playing
in the west for the first time in a little while. After missing my pick
on Richmond for the last two weeks, I’m hard pressed to make any
recommendation, despite their good record on the large Subiaco. Freo
fought hard against North last week, but that games says little about
either team, who both belong in the lower half of the ladder. Richmond
will win, but NO PLAY.
Adelaide vs Hawthorn
NO PLAY
Hawthorn will welcome back premiership
players Dew and Ellis as they start to build some momentum for when it
actually counts. Adelaide at home are usually tough to beat, and they
too are coming in to form. I sense that Hawthorn will break away at some
point and win this well, but the line is too close. NO PLAY
Geelong -35.5 vs Essendon
1 at 1.92
+0.92
Essendon performed admirably against some
top teams, and have been able to cover the line consistently this
season. Geelong have the luxury of putting in a first gamer, and you
have to wonder about the pressure to maintain a perfect record which it
starting to build on both them and St Kilda. Geelong have done well
against the ‘dons, so I expect will put in a strong showing. Bet 1 unit
on Geelong -35.5.
Port Adel. +12.5 vs Collingwood
2 at 1.99
-2
Collingwood will be heartened after last
week’s effort but it’s hard to tell if it means much. Certainly they
will welcome Didak and Thomas and this will make a big difference. Port
will be out for blood after last week’s loss and will show they are a
top team with a strong performance and probably a win. Bet 2 units on
Port +12.5
AFL ROUND NINE
Bulldogs +36.5 vs Geelong
2 at 1.92
+1.84
How much better can Geelong get? Ablett
and Chapman are back. Does that mean they will thrash sides by even
more? Or now that they are finally coming up against a genuine top 4
contender (who did the draw anyway?), will things start looking normal?
On the Dogs’ preferred playing venue (whose home game is this anyway?),
this line looks way too high. Bet 2 units on WB +36.5 or better.
North Melb. -5.5 vs Fremantle
2 at 1.95
+1.90
After last week’s humiliation, North are
set to bounce back hard and look much better this week with the
inclusion of some regulars. Freo are better than their ladder position
says, which might account for their generous price. Bet 2 units on North
-7.5 or better.
Adelaide vs Carlton
NO PLAY
Adelaide have been underperforming this
year, and should lift for a home game. Carlton enjoyed beating up on a
weak Collingwood, but are still overrated, and have not performed well
away from their home state. I like Adelaide to win, but not sure that
the odds are very good value.
West Coast -12.5 vs Collingwood
2 at 1.91
-2
The Eagles will be very happy to
have Kerr back, and other than the local derby, have been strong at home
this season. Collingwood are still depleted and while they will want to
fight back, they are far from home, and don’t have the personnel to put
up a winning score. Bet 2 units on WC -13.5 or better.
(BEST BET)
Richmond to bt Essendon
1 at 2.70
-1
What can I say? The Footy Show would’ve
gone for an hour less if not for Richmond! Are they totally
dysfunctional, or will they put up the fight of their lives in front of
a huge crowd? Some may say I’m dreaming, but Bet 1 unit on Rich to win
for 2.60 or better. This will be a great game to back and lay in-play
because it will definitely see-saw.
Brisbane Lions +36.5 vs St Kilda
2 at 1.90
+1.80
Saints may be running out of steam after
being pushed hard last week by a speedy Essendon. Brisbane are on a roll
with 3 wins on the trot, and will be no pushover. St Kilda will probably
win, but the line is way too generous. Bet 2 units on Brisbane +36.5 or
better.
Hawthorn vs Melbourne
NO PLAY
Melbourne will fancy their chances against
a depleted Hawthorn, especially after some recent near-misses. But this
is actually a must-win game for the Hawks, and on the big MCG in
possibly blustery conditions should win easily. I like them to cover the
line, but it looks a little high, so I will stay out.
AFL ROUND EIGHT
Hawthorn to bt Fremantle
2 at 1.97
+1.94
Beware the wounded Hawk! Hawthorn will be
devastated after last week’s shock loss, and also disappointed with the
loss of Hodge, and continued absences from injury. But despite being
undermanned, they are a good team, and will find a way to beat an
up-and-down Freo. Bet 2 units on Hawks to win at 1.95 or better
Bulldogs -33.5 vs Melbourne
2 at 1.98
-2
After a small hiccup, the Dogs are back to
their best with a huge unexpected away win. Melbourne were valiant, and
will continue to be in many games this season. However, it’s a long
drive home from Perth, and the Dogs will run all over them at the big
MCG in front of 13,000 fans for a big win. Bet 2 units on Dogs -34.5 or
better.
Geelong vs North Melbourne
NO PLAY
North improved last week to scrape home
after taking their foot off the pedal and forgetting how long the final
quarter should be. Geelong were brutal, as they tend to be at home.
However, the line of 44.5 looks quite high against a reasonable team.
Brisbane Lions vs Adelaide
NO PLAY
Adelaide will be livid after a shock home
drubbing, and surprisingly have made few changes. Brisbane are back to
doing very well at home, although Adelaide have done well here. The home
team should win and will probably cover the line considering Brisbane’s
knack of kicking high scores, and Adelaide’s lack inability, but I’m not
confident enough with Adelaide needing to bounce back.
Sydney vs West Coast
NO PLAY
West Coast are playing a lot better, and
these teams have a history of close games. The bigger ANZ stadium will
also even things up. The loss of Kerr will certainly hurt the Eagles.
Sydney should win a close one, and the line of 23.5 looks too high, but
not inclined to bet.
Richmond to bt Port Adelaide
1 at 4.35
-1
Richmond +26.5 vs Port Adelaide
1 at 1.91
+0.91
Another week; another Richmond coaching
crisis. With the inclusion of some key top players, they are starting to
look like a competitive outfit, and will come back hard after last
week’s disappointment. Port will be disappointed they couldn’t get over
the line last week, and will consider this a potential danger game. It
is exactly that, and will be a close one. Bet 1 unit Rich +26.5 or
better (BEST BET) Bet 1 unit Rich at 4.10 or better
Collingwood vs Carlton
NO PLAY
Forget form. Forget ladder positions.
Forget last week (well, maybe not). This is Peter Mac Cup and a huge
crowd at the ‘G to make up for all those poor attendances from the ‘pies
supporters so far this year. Some big injury losses for Collingwood, but
Medhurst back will help. On form and selection, you’d think it would be
Carlton in a romp, but you never know. Best to stay away from a game
line this.
Essendon +36.5 vs St Kilda
2 at 1.91
+1.82
The Saints are at full strength, running
hot, and generally do well and can kick big scores at the small, fast
Etihad Stadium, but Essendon also do well there. Essendon have really
surprised this year with several upsets, which makes you wonder how good
they really are. Both are fast teams, so the Saint’s choking defence
will not be as effective against Collingwood. Bet 2 units on Essendon
+36.5 or better. Might also take 1 unit on Total Match Points over 175.5
at 2.00 or better, but no decent odds on that market until game day. (To
be added later).
AFL ROUND SEVEN
Essendon vs Hawthorn
NO PLAY
Essendon lost Fletcher and Jetta to injury
and dropped Lucas for Neagle Houli and Bell Chambers. The Hawks included
Birchall, McGlynn and Stokes for the injured Guerra and dropped Morton
and Renouf. The Hawks have won the last 6 matches between the sides
while
Essendon has not beaten the Hawks since 2005. The Hawks have won 8 out
of their last 10 games at the Docklands whilst the Bombers have won 3 out
of its last 10 matches there but they were all against interstate sides.
The Bombers are clearly undermanned in this game and the Hawks look to
be finding some form with back to back wins in their last 2 games. The
Hawks look to be too big and strong on paper for the undersized Bombers.
Who is going to hold down Franklin and Roughead? The Bombers have not
been belted in Melbourne this year but I get the feeling the Hawks might
be looking for a percentage boosting win. No bet for me in this game.
Geelong vs Sydney Swans
NO PLAY
The Cats lost Gary Ablett to injury and
dropped D Johnson for Harley and Ling. Sydney mad no change to the side
that beat Richmond last week. Sydney’s last win against the Cats was in
2005 and the last win at Skilled Stadium in 1999. The Cats have covered
the line in 7 out of their last 10 matches at Skilled Stadium. The
average winning margin for the last 10 games at home is 45.4 points.
Sydney generally don’t get smashed by sides and the line of 37.5 looks
about right so no bet for me.
Richmond to bt Brisbane Lions
2 at 2.05
-2
Richmond lost Richardson to injury and
dropped Morton and McMahon for Brown, Cousins and Simmonds. The Brisbane
Lions made no change to the side that beat Essendon last week. The
Tigers have only one win on the board for 2009 but their form since the
Round One belting at the hands of Carlton is not that bad. Brisbane has
3 wins for the year all at the Gabba and is yet to win away from the
Gabba in their two attempts this year. Brisbane has only one win from
its last 7 matches at the MCG. Bet 2 units on Richmond at 2.00 or
better.
Port Adelaide -16.5 vs North Melb.
2 at 1.91
-2
North lost Pratt to injury and
dropped Greenwood, Power and Lower. They have included Wells, M
Campbell, Ross and Goldstein. Port lost Hartlett to injury and included
Davenport for this first game. North Melbourne has 2 wins on the board
for 2009 against Melbourne and Essendon. Port has 4 wins and 2 losses in
2009. You would expect the old shinbonner to kick in here but not sure
they have anything left in the tank. North have been terrible over the
last 2 weeks and I see no reason why they can turn it around here. Bet 2
units on Port Adelaide at -17.5 or better.
(BEST BET)
Carlton vs Fremantle
NO PLAY
Carlton lost Carrazzo to injury and
dropped Bentley, Houlihan, O’hAilpin for Austin, Hadley, Hampson and
Yarran. Fremantle lost Crowley with a foot injury and included Pratt for
his first game. Fremantle has won 9 out of its last 10 games against
Carlton but 6 of those games were at Subiaco. Fremantle has struggled
away from Subiaco winning only 2 from its last 10 matches at other
venues with both wins coming at AAMI. Fremantle’s average losing margin
in those 8 losses away from Subiaco is 26.5 points. I think Carlton will
win but line looks about right so no bet for me.
Adelaide to bt Western Bulldogs
2 at 2.00
-2
Adelaide dropped Cook and Griffin and lost
Bock with a hamstring injury and included Knights, Moran and Symes. The
Bulldogs included Williams for Addison. Adelaide has won 7 out of its
last 10 games against the Western Bulldogs. The Bulldogs last beat
Adelaide at AAMI in 2001. Adelaide is always tough to beat at AAMI but
it must be noted that they have not won at AAMI in 2009. The Bulldogs
have lost their last 3 matches in 2009 and the trip to AAMI would not be
the ideal way to get back on the winners list. I get the feeling this
could be Adelaide's chance to register their first win at AAMI. Bet 2
units on Adelaide at 1.95 or better.
West Coast v Melbourne
NO PLAY
West Coast dropped Hansen and lost Staker
and Brown to injury for Kennedy, McNamara and Spangher. Melbourne lost
Meesen to injury and included Grimes. The last time Melbourne won at
Subiaco against West Coast was back in 2002. Melbourne has only one win
for the year and it’s hard to make a case for them against West Coast at
Subiaco. West Coast has won 2 out of 3 games at Subiaco this year and a
loss to Fremantle last week. Melbourne has an average losing margin of
40.5 points this year. Melbourne looks to be improving and I don’t fancy
betting West Coast at minus 28.5 so no bet for me.
Collingwood v St Kilda
NO PLAY
Collingwood lost Anthony to suspension and
Beams with a groin injury. The Magpies included Shaw, Rocca, Reid,
Sidebottom and Stanley to its expanded interchange bench. The Saints
included Armitage, McEvoy and R Clarke to its expanded interchange
bench. The Saints are undefeated in 2009 and have an average winning
margin of 53.5 points. Collingwood have gone loss, win, loss, win, loss;
win so it looks like it could be another loss against St Kilda. The
Saints have won 9 from their last 10 at Etihad Stadium. Collingwood has
only won 4 from it last 10 matches at Etihad Stadium. Collingwood has
won 3 of its last 4 matches against St Kilda. How do you bet against St
Kilda on their current form? Likewise Collingwood tend to win these type
of games when underdogs. I think the price looks about right so no bet
for me.
AFL ROUND SIX
Collingwood vs North Melbourne
NO PLAY
North lost Harvey and Hansen and included
Harris and Watt. North Melbourne has won only two games this year and it
looks tough to get back on the winners list without Harvey, Wells,
Hansen and M Campbell. Collingwood rushed back captain Maxwell and H
Shaw for Cox and Goldsacks. Collingwood has won the 6 out its last 10
matches against North Melbourne. Collingwood has gone loss, win, loss,
win, loss this year so it looks like another Collingwood win here. Both
sides have 2 wins on the board this year and both had a win over
Melbourne so the form of either side is not great. I think Collingwood
will win but have no real interest to have a bet in this game.
Hawthorn vs Carlton
NO PLAY
The Hawks included Guerra and Osborne and
lost Young with a hamstring and dropped Stokes. The Blues lost Johnson
with a thigh injury and included Bentley. The Blues bounced back with a
big win over the Bulldogs last week. While the Hawks managed to scrap
home against the Eagles at Aurora. Hawthorn has a great record over the
Blues winning 8 out of the last 10 matches between the sides. The last
time Carlton beat the Hawks was in 2005. The Hawks are still missing 6
premiership players and doubt they have hit top form at this stage of
the year. Carlton look to be very quick and if Fevola can kick a few
goals then I don’t think there will be much in the match. Price looks
about right so no bet for me.
West Coast vs Fremantle
NO PLAY
West Coast dropped Schofield and Stenglein
and included Cockie and Masten. Fremantle coming off its first win for
the year lost Palmer with a season ending knee injury and included De
Boer. Fremantle has won the last 3 matches between the sides. However
they have lost a lot of experience in the team line up and I get the
feeling West Coast are going to come and hard and serve it up to them.
Fremantle were great last week and if they can produce that form again
they would win here. I am a little concerned at the way Fremantle were
celebrating after their goals last week. Looks like a tough tight match
and can’t bring myself to trust Fremantle so no bet for me.
Brisbane vs Essendon
NO PLAY
Brisbane lost Dalziell and Collier to
injury and dropped Henderson and Roe. They included Sheldon, Harding,
Proud and Stiller. Essendon lost Hille to a season ending knee injury
and surprised by including Hooker. Brisbane was belted by the Cats last
week by 93 points. Essendon produced a great come from behind win to get
over the Magpies by 5 points. Essendon has not won at the Gabba since
2000. Brisbane has won 6 from the last 10 matches between the sides but
the Bombers have won the last 3 but they were all at Docklands. Brisbane
has won 2 and lost 1 game at the Gabba this year. Price looks about
right so no bet for me.
Port Adelaide vs Adelaide
NO PLAY
Port dropped Carr and Lower for P Burgoyne
and Thomas. Adelaide made no change to the side that beat Melbourne last
week. The overall record is Port Adelaide 13 wins to Adelaide 12 wins.
Port did win the last game but Adelaide won the previous 3 matches
before that. Both sides are 3 wins and 2 losses in 2009. Looks a good
derby and could go either way can’t find a reason to back either side.
Melbourne vs Geelong
NO PLAY
Melbourne dropped Newton and Jetta for
Robertson and Maric. The Cats made no changes to the side that belted
Brisbane last week. The Cats are starting to run into some form with 5
wins for the year and the Demons have one win on the board for 2009. The
only interest in this game is the margin with the lines set around 10
goals. I get the feeling the Cats are going to belt the Dees but don’t
want to get involved in a 10 goal start so no bet for me. (BEST BET)
Sydney -17.5 vs Richmond
2 at 1.91
+1.82
The Swans included Rugby Union convert M
Pyke for his first game and Hall, O'Loughlin and Moore. Abblett and
Barlow were dropped and Bird and White left out with injury and illness.
The Tigers made no changes after their first win over North Melbourne
last week. The Swans lead 8 wins to 2 wins in their last 10 matches
against the Tigers. Sydney has won 8 of their last 10 matches at the SCG.
I think Sydney will be too strong at home. Bet 2 units on Sydney -18.5
or better.
Western Bulldogs to bt St Kilda
2 at 2.70
-2
The Bulldogs included two Brownlow
medallists in Cooney and Akermanis for Grant and Ward. St Kilda included
Koschitzke for King. The Saints are in great form winning 8 of their
last 10 matches played (including 2008 matches) the only losses in this
period was to Grand Finalist Geelong and Hawthorn. St Kilda has won 9
out of its last 10 matches at Etihad Stadium but the loss was to the
Bulldogs in round 2 in 2008. St Kilda leads the head to head between the
sides 6 wins to 3 wins plus a draw in their last 10 matches, but the
Bulldogs has won their last 2 matches against St Kilda. St Kilda is
undefeated in 2009 and the Bulldogs have 3 wins this year but they have
lost their past two matches to West Coast and Carlton. St Kilda is going
great but happy to speculate with 2 units on Bulldogs at 2.60 or better.
AFL ROUND FIVE
Port Adelaide vs St Kilda
NO PLAY
Both sides are in good form this year with
the Saints undefeated at the top of the ladder and Port sitting 4th with
three wins and a loss. Port included Cassisi and Lower foot the injured
Thomas and dropped Thompson. The Saints lost Koschitzke with a hamstring
and included Eddy. Port is missing both the Burgoyne’s but it didn’t
make any difference last week in the 30 point win over the Hawks. Port
has dominated the Saints at AAMI winning the last 6 games. The Saints
might lose a bit of their structure in the forward line with Koschitzke
missing. It looks like being a wet and miserable night so expect a
scrappy low scoring match. I think the price looks right so not action
for me.
Essendon vs Collingwood
NO PLAY
Essendon lost Daniher and Skipworth to
injury, plus they dropped Quinn, Nash and Dyson. They included
Lovett-Murray, Lonergan, Myers, Hocking and Jetta. Collingwood made no
changes to the side that beat Brisbane last week. Both sides have 2 wins
and 2 losses this year. Essendon has 6 out of the last 10 matches
between the sides. Collingwood has won the last 3 Anzac day match 3
Anzac day matches between the sides. There is a doubt on Mc Veigh
(Essendon) and Rocca , Medhurst and Didak (Collingwood) playing. I
suspect Mc Veigh won’t play for Essendon and think the Collingwood
players will. I think. In the last 10 games the favourite has won 7
times and I don’t see it being any different. I think the price looks
about right so no bet for me in this game.
West Coast +19.5 vs Hawthorn
2 at 1.99
+1.98
The Hawks lost Guerra to injury and
included Tuck. West Coast lost Masten to injury and included Butler. The
Hawks have won 7 of their last 10 macthes at Aurora. West Coast has won
2 from 4 of its games at Aurora. West Coast has not won an away game
since 2007. The Hawks continue to struggle with a number of key players
still out with injury. West Coast has won 2 of its 4 games in 2009, the
only bad loss being to St Kilda in Round 3. I think the Hawks will win
the game but think the West Coast can be very competitive. Bet 2 units
on West Coast +19.5 or better.
North Melb. -13.5 vs Richmond
2 at 1.93
-2
North Melbourne welcome back Edwards after
a pre season club suspension and new boy Greenwood for Matt Campbell who
is injured and Josh Smith was dropped. The Tigers welcome back Coughlan
after 3 years of injury plus Pattinson, Tambling and Oakley- Nicholls.
Nathan Brown is out with injury and Simmonds, Hislop and Connors have
been dropped. North has won 6 from the last last 7 games between the
sides. Richmond is yet to register a win in 2009. North is 2 wins and 2
losses in 2009. The Tigers have lost all confidence they continue to
rotate the same players in and out of the side each week. Bet 2 units on
North Melbourne at -14.5 or better.
Fremantle vs Sydney
NO PLAY
Fremantle dropped Gilmore, Bradley and
head for Murphy, Hinkley and Thorton. Sydney dropped Moore for Buchanan.
This is a game I would normally be tipping Fremantle at home but they
have been terrible all year so no bet for me.
Geelong vs Brisbane
NO PLAY
The Cats lost Ling to injury and dropped
Lonergan for Milburn and D Johnson. The Lions lost Charman to injury and
dropped Notting and stiller. They included Hendersen, Polkinghorne and
Collier. Geelong has won the last 5 games between the sides. The Cats
are undefeated this year and can’t mount a case for the Lions to be the
first side to beat them. The forecast is scattered showers with local
hail and thunder with strong winds. I don’t want to get involved in the
line until we see how the weather is looking closer to game time so no
bet for me.
Western Bulldogs v Carlton
NO PLAY
The Bulldogs lost Akermanis to suspension
and dropped Tiller for Robert Murphy and new boy Jarrard Grant. Carlton
lost Jacobs and Grigg to injury and dropped Hadley and Robinson. They
included Carrazzo, Jamison, O’Hailpin and Scotland. The Bulldogs lost
their first game in 2009 last week against West Coast at Subiaco and the
Blues are 2 wins and 2 losses from its 4 games in 2009. The Blues
started 2009 in grand style with back to back wins but the wheels have
fallen off over the past 2 weeks with a 4 point loss to Essendon and a
17 point loss to Sydney. A rumour of a virus going thru the Bulldogs
camp saw the Blues backed in from 2.15 to pick em in the match. Carlton
has won its last 2 matches against the Bulldogs but I don’t think there
will be much in the game. The price now looks about right so no bet for
me.
Melbourne v Adelaide
NO PLAY
Melbourne coming off its first win in 2009
lost Bard Green with a fractured jaw and included their captain Mc
Donald. Adelaide coming off a home loss to Geelong dropped Maric, Symes
and Shirley for Cook, Griffin and Stevens. Adelaide beat Collingwood at
the MCG in Round 1 this year and its 2 losses have been to the only
undefeated sides in 2009 Geelong and St Kilda so their form is not that
bad. Melbourne has one win against the Tigers. I think Adelaide will win
the game but at 1.38 happy not to get involved. The line could be tricky
with the bad weather forecast so no action for me.
AFL ROUND FOUR
Brisbane -10.5 vs Collingwood
2 at 1.92
-2
Brisbane left out Proud and lost
Leuenberger to injury. They were replaced with Charman and Brennan.
Collingwood included Barham, Goldsack, Rocca and Toovey for Dick,
Johnson, Maxwell and Heath Shaw. Brisbane has won 3 from the last 5
games against Collingwood and dominate the Magpies 8 games to 1 at the
Gabba. Brisbane look like they have a new belief under Voss and think
they will be too strong for Collingwood at the home. Bet 2 units on
Brisbane -11.5 or better.
Sydney vs Carlton
NO PLAY
Sydney lost Crouch to injury and included
new boy Kristin Thorton. Carlton left out Armfield for Garlett. The
stats tell us that Sydney has won the last 11 games between the sides
but as we have said before Carlton is a different team in 2009. Carlton
deserve to be the favourites as most punters think Sydney is on the
slide but they still manage to win enough games at the SCG when it
counts. As much as I think Carlton will be too good in the game I don’t
fancy betting against the Swans in Sydney especially when they are
underdogs. So I will not be betting in this game.
Hawthorn vs Port Adelaide
NO PLAY
The Hawks bounced back with their first
win in 2009 against North Melbourne still affected by Chicken gate. The
Hawks regained Campbell, Lewis and Sewell from injury and Taylor from
suspension. However they lost Birchall, Ellis and Gilham to injury and
dropped Schoenmakers. Port Adelaide lost Peter Burgoyne and captain
Domenic Cassis to suspension and included Hartlett and Logan. There has
not been a lot between the sides in the last 5 games with Port leading 3
wins to the Hawks 2 wins. The Hawks look a bit more dangerous up forward
with Franklin and Roughead as the big targets. Tredrea had a day out
last week but that was aginst Melbourne and not sure he will get the
same freedom against the Hawks. I think the Power will miss Peter
Burgoyne and Cassisi and expect the Hawks to win the game. The line
looks about right so no bet for me.
St Kilda vs Fremantle
NO PLAY
The Saints are flying and made no changes
to a settled team who are on top of the AFL ladder after 3 rounds.
Fremantle lost Broughton to injury and dropped Hinkley for Hayden and
Duffield. Here we have the two extremes of the competition one side
playing attacking football and the other side going backwards or
sidewards at every opportunity. As I said last week it’s impossible to
back Fremantle until they show some sort of form. Therefore definitely
no bet in this game for me.
Adelaide +23.5 vs Geelong
2 at 1.90
-2
Adelaide lost Gill and Stevens to injury
and included Bock and Shirley. The Cats have decided to give Mumford a
run in the ruck at the expensive of West. Geelong has won the last 3
between the sides including the last two at AAMI. Geelong’s biggest win
is by only 27 points this year. The trip to Adelaide is never easy so
bet 2 units on Adelaide at +22.5 or better
North Melbourne to bt Essendon
2 at 2.05
+2.1
North Melbourne included Ben Warren for
his first game and Lower for the injured Wells and Jones who has been
dropped. The Bombers included Mc Veigh, Mc Phee and Quinn for Myers,
Hocking and Jetta. North Melbourne has won 6 from its last 7 games
against Essendon but Essendon did win the last match in Round 1 2008.
North was terrible last week after all the trouble in the camp. Essendon
produced one of their best wins in 5 years according to Matthew Lloyd. I
expect North to bounce back and maybe the Bombers might suffer a little
bit of a let down after last week. Bet 2 units on North at 2.00 or
better. (BEST BET)
Richmond vs Melbourne
NO PLAY
The Tigers reacted to their 0-3 start to
the year by dropping Schulz, Tambling, Edwards and King. They have
included Andrew Collins for his first game along with Connors, Mc Mahon
and Nahas. Melbourne coming off another big loss made only one change
dropping Cheney for Newton. Hard to get involved in this game but expect
the Tigers to win but the price is short enough.
West Coast to bt Bulldogs
2 at 2.85
+3.7
West Coast dropped Davis, Ebert and Mc
Kinley for Staker, Wirrpanda and Schofield. The Bulldogs lost Cooney
with a knee injury and included Harbrow. The Bulldogs are 3-0 for the
year including a win at Subiaco in round 1 this year. West Coast belted
Port Adelaide in their only other game at Subiaco in Round 2 this year.
I expect West Coast to bounce back after last week defeat to St Kilda
bet 2 units on WCE at 2.75 or better.
AFL ROUND THREE
Geelong vs Collingwood
NO PLAY
Geelong has included West, Byrnes and
Stokes replacing Ottens (knee), Hogan (general soreness) and Gamble who
was dropped. Collingwood included Thomas for Toovey. The Cats are
undefeated in 2009 but they are not playing like the dominant side of
the past two years. However as good side’s do they are doing enough to
win albeit unimpressive. Collingwood managed to get their first win of
the year last week after overcoming a slow start against Melbourne.
Collingwood has the best record of any side against Geelong in the
past 2 years. Geelong has not kicked more than 100 points against
Collingwood since 2002. In fact Geelong’s average score against
Collingwood in the last 10 matches is only 83 points. Both sides are
coming off the 5 day break and I get the feeling there will be some late
changes for both sides. I expect Geelong to win the game but think the
-18.5 on offer is risky as the Cats have struggled against the Magpies
so no bet for me.
St Kilda vs West Coast
NO PLAY
Both sides coming off good wins last week
made no team changes at selection. The Saints have started 2-0 for the
year and finally look to be clicking under the Ross Lyon game plan. West
Coast thumped Port Adelaide by 50 points at Subiaco last week.
Surprisingly West Coast has won 4 out of the last 5 games against St
Kilda including 3 from its last 4 at Eithad Stadium. St Kilda did win 10
of the last 14 games at Eithad in 2008 whilst West Coast lost both of
their games there in 2008. The price looks right in this game so no
action for me.
Brisbane -12.5 vs Sydney
2 at 1.94
+1.88
Brisbane dropped Charman for roe. Sydney
made no changes to the side that belted the Hawks at home last week. The
Swans have not lost to Brisbane in its last 9 games. Brisbane was very
competitive against Carlton last week except for a lapse in the second
quarter. Brisbane seem to have more belief under Michael Voss and think
they can overcome the bad record against Sydney. Bet 2 units on Brisbane
-12.5 or better.
Carlton -22.5 vs Essendon
2 at 1.91
-2
Carlton has lost M Jamison to injury and
dropped Scotland for Stevens and Grigg. The bombers lost Mc Phee to
suspension and included Jetta. Essendon has won 4 out of its last 5
matches against Carlton but I think we are seeing a different Carlton in
2009 so I am ignoring the previous history. Bet 2 units on Carlton -23.5
or better.
Port Adelaide vs Melbourne
NO PLAY
Port lost Westhoff to injury and dropped
Rodan and Thurstans for Brogan, Matt Thomas and first gamer Wade
Thompson. The Demons lost captain Mc Donald and dropped Spencer for Dunn
and Meesen. Port were terrible last week but you would expect them to
bounce back after being belted by West Coast last week. The Demons are
yet to register a win this year and it’s hard to make a case for them in
this game. Port has won 4 of the last 5 games between the sides and 9
out of the last 11 games between the sides at AAMI. The line has been
set around 32.5 and I’m not sure what way to bet so no action for me in
this game.
North Melbourne +9.5 vs Hawthorn
2 at 1.91
-2
The Kangaroos have made the headlines for
all the wrong reasons this week. No doubt it may have taken some of the
focus off this game. They have dropped Lower and Goldstein for Jones and
Smith. The Hawks included Gilham and Tuck for Kennedy and Tuck. The
Hawks are yet to register a win in 2009 with many key players still
missing due to injury. North Melbourne has won 3 out of the last 5 games
played between the sides and with a number of key Hawks missing happy to
bet 2 units on Kangaroos at +8.5 or better.
Fremantle vs Adelaide
NO PLAY
The Dockers named defender Greg Broughton
for his first game, and recalled Daniel Gilmore and Clayton Hinkley to
replace Andrew Browne (injury), Paul Duffield and Scott Thornton.
Adelaide made three forced changes for Sunday's game against Fremantle
at Subiaco. Aside from the club-imposed suspension put on Nathan Bock,
the Crows could not consider Trent Hentschel or Chris Knights due to
injury, and included Nick Gill, Scott Stevens and Brad Symes. You would
think Fremantle would win at home but I have lost all confidence in the
side’s ability to win so not getting involved here.
Bulldogs vs Richmond
NO PLAY
The Bulldogs are flying and made no
changes at selection. Richmond replaced Nahas with Tambling. The
Bulldogs played out a draw with the Tigers in 2008 and has won 4 out of
the previous 5 games before that against the Tigers. The Tigers took it
up to Geelong last week and nearly stole the game. I think the game
could be a lot closer than most people think but I don’t want to get
involved here.
AFL ROUND TWO
Adelaide vs St Kilda
NO PLAY
Adelaide is coming off a good win against
Collingwood last week and the Saints managed to get over the top of the
Swans after a very slow start. The Crows have lost Stevens to injury and
dropped Cook for Johncock and Thompson. The Saints have included Hayes
for the injured R Clarke. I don’t think there will be a lot in this game
but suspect it will be a close tight game. Adelaide deserves to be
slight favourites at home and that’s what the bookies have come up with
so no bet for me.
Geelong vs Richmond
NO PLAY
Geelong continued on their winning way
last week even with a little scare late in the game but still did enough
to beat the Hawks. Richmond? Well the less said the better here. The
Cats have left out Stokes and Lonergan to injury and included Simon
Hogan for his first game and Tom Hawkins. The Tigers made five changes
losing Cousins and Raines to injury and dropping Browne, Mc Mahon and
Thursfield. The Tigers included 3 first gamers in Alex Rance, Tom Hislop
and Robin Nahas plus Graham and King. Geelong did not lose at Skilled
Stadium last year and I don’t see any reason while it will change this
week. There has been some money for the Tigers at 44.5 early in the week
with most bookies settling on +42.5 for the Tigers. The Cats average
winning margin at Skilled last year was around 53 points. The weather
could be a factor but I think it will clear up before game time. Happy
not to get involved in this game but the 42.5 on the Tigers looks
attractive but not keen on betting against the Cats at the minus line.
Melbourne +32.5 vs Collingwood
1 at 1.90
-1
Collingwood made three changes at
selection following their loss to Adelaide last week. They included L
Brown, Dick and Shaw and left out Bryan, Goldsack and Reid. Still no
Rocca but I suspect he will play next week. Melbourne included bad boy
Sylvia and Martin for the injured Garland and Buckley. Collingwood won
their last two matches against Melbourne but only by small margins of 11
and 21 points. During this time the Demons have been terrible. I’m not
sure the Demons have improved that much at this stage but the line of
+31.5 on the Demons looks attractive on that basis. You would expect
Collingwood to come out firing after last week’s unexpected loss to
Adelaide. Bet 1 unit on Melbourne +31.5 or better.
Brisbane Lions +21.5 vs Carlton
2 at 1.93
+1.86
Carlton made no changes to the side that
belted the Tigers last week. Brisbane left out Collier and Harding for
Black and Proud. Brisbane has won 8 from their last 9 matches against
Carlton (since 2002), but Carlton did win the last time they played.
Carlton was bottoming out in this period and accumulating draft picks.
Brisbane responded to Michael Voss half time address last week and I
expect them to be very competitive in this game. Bet 2 units on Brisbane
+20.5 or better.
Hawthorn -16.5 vs Sydney
3 at 1.93
-3
Sydney included Brett Meredith for
his first game and included Ablett for Barlow and Buchanan. The Hawks
showed that they have plenty of depth last week and were forced to make
another four changes this week due to injury or suspension. The players
missing are Taylor, Tuck, Osborne, and Suckling. The inclusions are
Campbell, Ellis, Kennedy and Morton. The Swans started brilliantly last
week but then went missing for 2 quarters and failed to score. The Hawks
managed to bounce back after the Cats controlled their game early to go
down by 8 points. The Swans have won 6 out of their last 7 against the
Hawks but I suspect this will all change here. Any side with Hodge
controlling the backline and Roughy and Buddy up forward and a good
midfield will be hard to beat. The Swans are missing O’Loughlin and
Barry and not sure the Swans will be able to contain the Hawks. Bet 3
units on Hawks -16.5 or better. (BEST BET)
Essendon vs Fremantle
NO PLAY
Essendon included new boys David Zaharakis
and Michael Quinn, plus Dahiher and Myers. Longergan and Hurley were
left out to injury and Houli and Neagle were dropped. Fremantle included
Solomon and Thornton for Murphy and Drum. Essendon struggled last week
and Fremantle was well beaten by the Western Bulldogs at Subiaco.
Fremantle has not won at Eithad since 2006 and only won once in last 8
games there. Plus Fremantle has never beaten Essendon at Eithhad. On
that basis how can you back Fremantle? I don’t think Essendon is any
good either so I will not get involved in this game.
Bulldogs vs North Melbourne
NO PLAY
The Western Bulldogs left out Everitt and
Tiller for Liam Picken and Callen. North Melbourne dropped Smith for
Goldstein. Both sides are coming off first round wins. The Kangaroos
have won the last 5 matches between the two sides. The Kangaroos are
continually underrated by everyone but they are always competitive. The
Bulldogs are coming off the Perth road trip and I get the feeling they
have improved from last year. I don’t feel confident betting against the
Kangaroos so no bet for me here.
West Coast to bt Port Adelaide
2 at 2.38
+2.76
West Coast dropped Butler, Spangher, Seaby
and Staker and included A Selwood, Mc Kinley, B Jones and Hunter. Port
has replaced the suspended Brogan with Thurstans. Port has dominated
West Coast winning 6 from the last 7 games and 5 from the last 7 at
Subiaco versus West Coast. West Coast started very well last week but
fell away badly to finally lose by 9 points to Brisbane last week. Port
was comfortable all day against Essendon to run out 41 point winners. On
form you would think Port should win but I get the feeling West Coast
will lift for their first home game of the year. Bet 2 units on WCE at
2.35 or better.
AFL ROUND ONE
Richmond vs Carlton
NO PLAY
The build up to this game has been the
biggest I can remember. A sell out and Channel 10 coming to their senses
and televising the game live into Melbourne. The Tigers have included
rookie Andrew Browne and Ben Cousins. The Blues have named 5 new faces
Jeff Garlett, Sam Jacobs, Chris Johnson, Aaron Joseph and Mitch
Robinson. The Tigers have been well supported all week (in from 2.25 to
2.00) on the injury concerns over Fevola’s heel injury. On top of that
the Blues have named 5 rookies and are missing Stevens, Carrazo, B
Fisher, Bentick, Warnock and possible Hartlett from their best side. The
Tigers are missing Cotchin and K Johnson from their best side. I don’t
think there is a lot in the game based on the selected teams. I am
hoping for a tight close game and would have slightly favour Richmond at
the odds based on the team selections, but most of the value already
gone in the price so no bet for me.
Geelong -18.5 vs Hawthorn
3 at 1.91
-3
Geelong looks hungry to redeem themselves
from the loss to Hawthorn in last years Grand Final. The Cats belted
Collingwood in the NAB Cup final and I think they can continue with the
job on the undermanned Hawks tonight. The Hawks have a number of key
players missing from the Premiership team plus a few injury concerns
over a few other players. I would not be surprised to see a few late
changes for the Hawks. The positive for the Hawks is they have match
winners in Franklin and Hodge but I think the Cats midfield will be
running riot tonight. Bet 3 units Cats -18.5 or better (BEST BET).
Collingwood v Adelaide
NO PLAY
Collingwood was belted by Geelong in the
NAB Cup final but I think their real focus may have been on this round 1
game against Adelaide. The magpies have a good record versus Adelaide at
the MCG and I don’t see this result being any different. The lines on
offer from the bookies vary from 21.5 to 23.5 and that looks right so I
won’t be getting involved in this game.
Brisbane v West Coast Eagles
NO PLAY
Michael Voss goes from player to TV
commentator direct to senior coach of the Brisbane Lions. No
apprenticeship for a former captain and Brownlow medal winner. Jonathon
Brown becomes the sole captain after Voss decided they only needed one
leader. Brisbane has included big name recruit Daniel Rich and West
Coast have kept the same old side that’s been running around for the
past couple of years. There is some concern of Black’s fitness but I get
the feeling Brisbane will come out firing for Vossy. The line’s range
from 23.5 to 26.5 with the Bookies but I ‘m not sure which way I prefer
to bet so will stay out here.
St Kilda v Sydney
NO PLAY
St Kilda has lost Hayes and Hudghton to
injury and decided not to risk Maguire but they have included Farren Ray
from the Western Bulldogs. There is a rumour going around that Goddard
hurt his hamstring at training and may miss the game. The Saints started
very slow last year but beat the Swans in the corresponding round 1 game
last year in a low scoring match. The Swans are missing O’Loughlin and
Barry from their team so it may be a low scoring scrappy match like last
year. It’s too early in the year for me to have a bet in this game.
North Melbourne -21.5 vs Melb.
2 at 1.91
+1.82
The Demons have included 4 new faces and
finally have Rivers back. They were terrible last year and I’m not sure
they are going to be able to turn around their form quickly enough.
North included 3 new faces but also lost a lot of experience in losing
Thompson, Grant, and Sinclair. I think North Melbourne will be too
strong. Bet 2 units on Kangaroos at -21.5 or better.
Essendon to bt Port Adelaide
1 at 4.10
-1
Port Adelaide gets back the tough Josh
Carr and new boy W Thompson. The Bombers have included Hayden Skipworth
and new boy Michael Hurley. Port Adelaide’s record at AAMI was very poor
last year. They have changed their training routine to include a session
at AAMI on a weekly basis. Everybody seems to expect Port to be big
improvers this year but I can’t really see why at this stage. Essendon
under Matthew Knights will be very competitive and think they look a
little over the odds at 4.00. Bet 1 unit on Essendon at 4.00 or better
for a sweat bet.
Fremantle v Western Bulldogs
NO PLAY
Fremantle have included a number of new
kids after losing many experienced players from last year. The Western
Bulldogs have pretty much maintained the same core squad as last year
but there is some doubt on whether Murphy will play. The weather is
forecast to be 35 so it may have some impact late in the game. Fremantle
could not finish off games last year having many 4th quarter fade outs.
You would think Fremantle deserve to start favourites at home but we
lost plenty of cash betting them at home last year. I think price looks
about right so I won’t get involved here.
2009 PRE-SEASONGRAND FINAL
Geelong vs Collingwood
NO PLAY
The NAB Cup has been a hard betting
proposition due the uncertainty of the players taking the field on a
weekly basis. Carlton rested 9 players against Geelong who also had a
few of there best players rested. Geelong is playing a near strength
full side tonight excluding Mooney. Collingwood has also selected a
strong side with O’Brien and Fraser missing. The Magpies have played
well against the Cats in the past 2 years but I find it hard to
recommend any plays against the Cats. This is the NAB Cup and I think
1.50 is short enough for Geelong when sides can rotate and rest players
in preparation for round 1 of the real season. Too risky to make any
plays in NAB Cup but we will be ready for Round 1 of the real season.
2010 U.S. MASTERS
Tiger Woods 3.50
Phil Mickelson 6.00
P Harrington 13.00
Lee Westwood 17.00
Rory Mcilroy 17.00
Geoff Ogilvy 19.00
Steve Stricker 19.00
Retief Goosen 21.00
Paul Casey 21.00
Sergio Garcia 26.00
Jim Furyk 26.00
Ernie Els 29.00
H Stenson 29.00
+4.3
-1
OZ
'10 GOLF MAJORS
