NRL PREVIEWS & PLAYS
...with OTP's National Rugby League expert
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NRL ROUND TWENTY-FOUR
Panthers -5.5 v Rabbitohs
2 at 1.92
+1.84
The Panthers have a good opportunity to halt their losing streak here up
against a severely depleted Rabbitohs side whose hopes of making the
finals are all but over following their two point loss to the Storm last
week. The last time these two sides met was in round 12 where the
Bunnies destroyed the Panthers 42-22, which the Panthers players will
not have forgotten, they too have a few injuries of their own though but
are still much better off than the Bunnies. It’s short and sweet here,
the Panthers will have too much muscle in the forwards for the Bunnies
and have better playmaking options on attack with Walsh and Burns in the
Halves likely to feast off the forwards dominance and Luke Lewis will
step in to create headaches when he can. The Bookies have the Panthers
as favourites but the line is not large and they’ll cover it easily as
they deliver the final knockout blow to the Bunnies season. Pick – 2
units on Panthers -5.5 point start
Sea Eagles -5.5 v Warriors
4 at 1.92
-4
The Sea Eagles will be very fired up for this match and in front of
their loyal fans on their beloved Brookvale Oval they are going to
outplay the Warriors in every facet of the game as they make a last
impassioned push for a top four finish. The Warriors had a fairly soft
win over the Knights last week whilst the Sea Eagles had a tough loss to
the Dragons, I’m really not buying too much into the Warriors win though
as they did not set the world on fire and proved once again how much
they rely on Manu Vatuvai for points. It goes without saying that the
Sea Eagles will look to shut down the big Warriors winger and where
others have failed I am confident the Sea Eagles will triumph with Des
Hasler having no doubt worked hard on a watertight plan for his side to
shut Mr Vatuvai down. We’re about to see just how good the Sea Eagles
are, they will play this game at a pace the Warriors just can’t keep up
with and chew up some big yardage as a result whilst their defence will
be back to its trademark best. This is going to be a very long night for
the visiting Warriors.
Pick – 4 units on Sea Eagles -5.5 point start (BEST BET)
Eels -2.5 v Tigers
3 at 2.00
-3
The Eels stormed back onto the radar last week with an encouraging win
over the Broncos in Brisbane and will have restored some lost confidence
following a couple of losses over the previous weeks; the Tigers also go
into this off a good win following a fantastic final 10 minutes against
the Panthers which inflated the winning margin significantly. The Eels
have put some of their off-field dramas around coach Daniel Anderson to
rest this week and I’m confident we’ll see that touch of class again
here that we know they’re capable of, especially with the top eight just
within their reach – nothing short of a solid win will be acceptable and
that’s exactly what they’ll get. Dropping Mortimer proved a good move
for the Eels last week with Robson and Keating providing some good spark
together in the Halves and on top of this Mateo has hit a purple patch
of form, rivalling Hayne in terms of devastation on attack and I expect
a repeat performance here on their home turf. The Tigers will struggle
with the Eels intensity here on both attack and defence and will run
short of ideas as the score mounts.
Pick – 3 units on Eels -2.5 point start
NRL ROUND TWENTY-THREE
Roosters 13+ v Sharks
2 at 2.45
-2
The last time these two sides met was in
round 13 at this same ground with the Sharks destroying the Roosters
42-18, a definite low point for the Roosters season to date, these two
sides have gone in opposite directions since then though. The Sharks
have copped a lot of criticism following their thrashing at the hands of
the Warriors last week and have promised a bigger effort here but I’m
not at all convinced they’ve got it in them to mix it with the class and
determination of the Roosters who have so much more to lose in this
match than the Sharks not to mention wanting to erase the round 13
effort from their memories. The loss to the Dragons last week will be
nothing more than a speed bump for the Roosters as they cement a top
four finish for 2010. Carney is the best player in the competition at
present and he’ll be too much to handle for the Sharks, he’ll lead the
rout and the rest of the side will join him! Pick –2 units on Roosters
13+
Titans -14.0 v Cowboys
3 at 1.92
+2.76
The Cowboys gelled last week after
Thurston went off injured but it still wasn’t enough to get a win over
the Broncos in Townsville, their opposition here though are after their
fourth win in a row with their latest victory being a 34-12 thrashing of
the Eels. Greg Birds return to the Titans line-up this week is a huge
boost just out from the Finals and adds another weapon to their already
very formidable offence who will be in the mood once again this week to
pile on the points and exact some revenge on their round 4 loss to the
Cowboys. It’s a one-sided ledger in the class department here with the
Titans holding all the aces….the Bookies have given the Cowboys a
generous point start but it will be covered easily by the home side as
they look to boost their point differential. Pick – 3 units on Titans
-14.5 or better point start (BEST BET)
Storm -6.5 v Rabbitohs
3 at 1.91
-3
The Storm looked like they had waved the
white flag on their season last week in being thrashed by the Sea Eagles
but with just a handful of matches left together as a team they will
want to go out on a high as well as reward the Melbourne faithful for
their unwavering support during tough times. The Bunnies continue to
take hits on the casualty front with five-eight John Sutton joining the
list of sidelined stars for this clash, they do welcome back Crocker and
Burgass to the forwards and Champion and Best to the Centres though but
in order to win here one feels they would need to have their full
complement of stars take the field. Sutton is a crucial link to the
Bunnies offence and they’ll struggle for flow without him which is not
good news as they’ll be facing a fired up Storm defensive line following
the 26 points they conceded last week to the Sea Eagles. The Bunnies
have never won in Melbourne and they are not about to start here against
a very classy Storm side that won’t be lacking in motivation this week.
The line is not large from the Bookies and the Storm will cover it. Pick
– 3 units on Storm -6.5 point start
NRL ROUND TWENTY-TWO
Cowboys +6.5 v Broncos
2 at 1.93
-2
The Cowboys showed plenty of fight last week in narrowly losing to the
Panthers and they’ll need to show up with a similar attitude for this
local derby following six losses in a row to their big brother Broncos,
the home advantage does work in their favour though and with Thurston at
close to top form they can certainly cause the upset here. The Broncos
have a tough five day turnaround following their hard fought win over
the Dragons and whilst they deserve their favouritism here the point
start to the home side is hard to go past with the Cowboys forwards
close to the top of their game, and that old combo of Bowen and Thurston
causing trouble on attack with some quality players to back them up.
This will be another bruising encounter for both sides with not many
points in it either way, desperation will win the day and I’m sure both
sides will have an equal measure of it as they jostle for bragging
rights.
Pick – 2 units on Cowboys +6.5 point start
Titans to bt Eels
3 at 1.83
+2.49
Just when the Eels were looking to repeat last years long streak of wins
leading to the finals they go and get trampled by the Roosters, looking
flat and unenthused for most of the match with Hayne being one of the
main culprits. With their streak coming to such an inglorious end I
can’t see the Eels dusting themselves off and coming back strong one
more time to make the finals, they were reliant on the momentum that was
built up and without it they are not a top-eight side having proven that
for most of 2010 (pre-streak). The Titans go into this with some
momentum of their own having beaten the Warriors in Auckland, which now
gives them one last shot at a top four finish for 2010 which is within
reach but will require some very hard work in the remaining five
matches, starting here. The Bookies are not totally sure whether the
Eels will bounce back or not, but I am, they are not going to compete
with the enthusiasm, skill, pace and agility of the Titans forward pack,
and off the back of this the halves combo of Prince and Rogers will
weave their magic. Hayne will not have the range of freedom he’s enjoyed
of late following his very poor positional play against the Roosters
which cost his side dearly, and will need to play a more structured
fullback role or else be punished again through the kicking game of
Prince. The Titans are not about to undo all that good work from
Auckland last week, they’re rebuilding their fortress game by game in
readiness for finals footy! Pick – 3 units on Titans to win
Rabbitohs to bt Tigers
2 at 2.50
+3
The Rabbitohs have been hit hard with injuries to top players and now
they’re having to take the field without suspended star forward Luke
Burgess, they have some good depth to draw on in the forwards though and
with the season now well and truly on the line I think we’ll see a
performance befitting a proud club fighting for survival in 2010. Isaac
Luke will be key to this match and with a game under his belt following
his return from injury he’ll play with more confidence and his
combination with Sandow will be a real handful for a Tigers defence that
has been far from convincing, chuck Sutton in the mix with some of his
trademark line breaks and this match has upset written all over it.
Expect to see a very physical approach to this game from the Bunnies as
they give their 2010 finals campaign one last push. Pick – 2 units on
Rabbitohs to win
Dragons to bt Roosters
3 at 1.92
+2.7
The Dragons side set to take the field in this match is the strongest
they’ve had for a number of weeks and have a very menacing look to them,
particularly in the forwards and with the old combo of Gasnier and
Cooper in the Centres I’m sure we’ll see something special and receive a
timely reminder of the Dragons premiership credentials following a rough
month of results. The Roosters were brilliant last week in destroying
the Eels but will find this match a much tougher prospect as they face a
much more complete Dragons side who have the weight of experience on
their side and will be wanting to celebrate Wayne Bennett’s 600th NRL
game as coach in style with a big win for the great man. Carney and
Pierce will come under more pressure in this match than they’ve had all
season and they won’t have the luxury of being behind a dominant forward
pack, as has been the case of late. This is going to be a rather
comfortable Dragons win. Pick – 3 units on Dragons to win
(BEST BET)
Raiders to bt Panthers
2 at 2.00
+2
There’s no excuses for the Raiders here, they’ve got close to their best
side on hand, home ground advantage and their captain Alan Tongue back
from injury, not to mention the fact they’ve got some questions to
answer following a very average performance in being thrashed by the
Strom last week. We’ve seen it a number of times this year that when the
Raiders are on they are ON and without the ability to gaze into a
crystal ball one must look for other signs as to whether they’ll be at
their best here...and the signs are good. The Panthers are not as strong
as their 2nd placing on the table suggests and were very nearly beaten
at home last week against the Cowboys, this match will be much tougher
for them but the Bookies still have them as favourites which is good for
us as we’ll climb on the good value on offer for the Raiders.
Pick – 2 units on Raiders to win
NRL ROUND TWENTY-ONE
Bulldogs to bt Rabbitohs
2 at 2.38
+2.76
The last time these two sides met was back
in round four where the Rabbitohs handed the Dogs a good old fashioned
hiding, running out winners 38-16, I expect the Dogs to exact some
revenge here though. The Bunnies go into this fresh off a stuttering win
over the Warriors whilst the Dogs lost to the rampaging Eel’s but I
consider of these two sides it’s the Dogs who are better prepared going
into this match when you consider both teams opposition last week. The
Bunnies are without three of their leading forwards in Taylor, Crocker
and Stuart but do welcome back their star Hooker Isaac Luke whilst the
Dogs have named their strongest side which has a formidable look to it
in both experience and talent. It’s not in the nature of this Bulldogs
club to end the season with a whimper and they won’t appreciate being
dubbed underdogs on their home ground against a side they’ve made their
bunnies (sorry about that..) in recent history. I believe the
experience, determination and aggression of the Dogs will win the
day….the Bookies have them at a generous price which is fine by us. Pick
– 2 units on Bulldogs to win
Cowboys +12.0 v Panthers
2 at 1.92
+1.84
I saw enough fight in the Cowboys in their
last round win over the Knights to suggest they’re going to be a handful
in these remaining rounds and with the forward pack they boast, along
with the devastating playmaking of Thurston, then don’t be surprised if
they ruin a few other sides dreams of making the top eight. The Panthers
have lost their last three games, two of which were at this ground, and
whilst they do welcome back Luke Lewis for this match I’m not convinced
their attack is potent enough currently to justify the large point start
the Bookies have given the Cowboys here. Pick – 2 units on Cowboys +11.5
or better
point start
Tigers -10.5 v Sharks
3 at 1.94
-3
This is a good match for the Tigers
to get at this time of year as they look to further fine-tune their
attack, particularly the halves combination of Marshall and Lui, and
following last weeks heavy loss to the Sea Eagles Tim Sheens will be
demanding they keep one of the worst offensive sides in the competition,
the Sharks, to single digits. The Sharks were fortunate to catch the
Raiders on an off day last week which limited the margin of their loss
but it will be a lot tougher here as the Tigers have their full
complement of forwards available and once they start to dominate then
the class of Marshall and Farah will cause havoc for the thin Sharks
defensive line. The point start to the Sharks is quite large but the
Tigers will cover it in style. Pick – 3 units on Tigers -10.5 point
start (BEST BET)
Broncos to bt Dragons
2 at 2.15
+2.3
Following their loss to the Roosters on
Monday night the Broncos are now treading on thin ice sitting at 9th on
the points table and another loss here will make things very tough for
them (sorry to sound like a broken record this round), they’ll have
worked very hard all week on their leaky defence though and will be very
tough to beat here. The Dragons have not been living up to their
premiership favouritism tag over the past month with their attack
lacking fire and teams seem to have come up with answers to their simple
yet effective game plan and no doubt Broncos coach Ivan Henjak will have
a plan of his own to stop them. It’s short and sweet here, the Broncos
have the game breakers to get the job done on attack and we already know
just how brutal and effective their defence can be when they switch on,
and switched on is exactly what they’ll be for this match. Even with the
home ground advantage the Broncos are still the under dogs here and
offer great value as they get the read on this Dragons side and come
away with the win. Pick – 2 units on Broncos to win
NRL ROUND TWENTY
Raiders -8.0 v Sharks
3 at 1.91
-3
This is a tale of two sides going in opposite directions with the
Raiders hitting their high of the season last round in demolishing the
Knights 52-18 whilst on the other hand the Sharks were obliterated 48-18
by the Sea Eagles. The Sharks have had a rough week with coach Ricky
Stuart walking out on them and will have been badly disrupted leading
into this clash against a side that has won two in a row and could
potentially bring up another half century of points here. The Raiders
are going to dominate every facet of this match and I am
shocked/stunned/flabbergasted that the Raiders are paying anywhere near
where the Bookies have priced them – get on the Raiders to cover the
line. Pick – 3 units on Raiders -8.5 or better point start
Rabbitohs -2.5 v Warriors
3 at 1.91
+2.75
This is a true litmus test to see whether the Warriors are top four
contenders or pretenders, I for one believe this match will provide a
big reality check for the New Zealand side, not to take anything away
from the last five weeks though as they have shown plenty of guts and
spine. Their opposition here, the Bunnies, are absolutely desperate this
week after they put up a great fight last round against the Dragons but
fell just short, they showed all the qualities of a side that has plenty
left to offer in 2010 though and, starting here, they’re about to start
climbing the points table. I’ve said it many time already this season –
the Bunnies have stockpiles of quality in their forward pack and will be
very fired up for this encounter…the Warriors don’t stand a chance. The
Warriors 5 game winning streak has been helped by the fact 4 of those
games were played in New Zealand , this is in Sydney though and the
juggernaut is about to hit a very large and determined brick wall. The
Bookies have gone for a very narrow line….the Bunnies could cover it
blindfolded. Pick – 3 units on Rabbitohs -2.5 point start
(BEST BET)
Titans +12.5 v Dragons
2 at 1.85
+1.7
This is a season defining match for the Titans as they fight to stay in
the top eight and prove to themselves they are able to compete against
the top sides when playing away from Skilled Park. The side the Titans
have named is certainly more than capable of causing the upset here,
they’ll have to do so without star five-eight Greg Bird though who is
out injured but they have great cover with Rogers moving in to fill his
shoes. The Dragons got home late against the Bunnies last week, helped
by some poor handling from the opposition, but showed signs of
vulnerability once they got behind, their class prevailed in the end
though. The Titans are certainly good enough to make a game of this and
one would certainly expect they’ll throw everything and the kitchen sink
into this match which makes the generous point start on offer from the
Bookies quite attractive.
Pick – 2 units on Titans +11.5 or better point start
Sea Eagles -3.5 v Tigers
3 at 1.80
+2.4
The Sea Eagles exploded into action last week in demolishing the Sharks,
this match promises much tougher opposition though but I’m confident
they can string together another top performance as they charge up the
points table. The Sea Eagles forward pack will have it over the Tigers
here and that will be the perfect platform for Foran and Hodkinson to
again launch their attack, they have the added bonus of having Lyon in
top form also who has been playing like a five-eight, creating tries and
looking dangerous anywhere near the opposition line. Whilst the Tigers
have been winning of late they’ve not been terribly convincing and this
match promises to be their toughest for some time. The line on offer is
not large and I expect the Sea Eagles to cover it in style.
Pick – 3 units on Sea Eagles -4.5 or better point start
NRL ROUND NINETEEN
Titans to bt Broncos
3 at 2.05
-3
Skilled Parks legend as one of the most
formidable fortresses of any home side in the competition has taken a
real battering this season with the Titans letting down their guard
several times, they will have no greater motivation than this match to
rebuild that legend though, facing their third defeat in a row and up
against their most formidable foe the Broncos. The Titans have named an
unchanged side to that which lost to the Tigers last week but their key
playmaker Scott Prince will be much better for having had that run and I
expect him to be a handful for the Broncos who themselves welcome back
some very big guns in Thaiday, Lockyer, Folau and Glenn to the side that
lost their last outing, also to the Tigers. This match is of vital
importance to both these sides with a loss making life even tougher in
the very tight log-jam for top eight spots. I’m surprised that the
Bookies are favouring the Broncos here as the Titans will be better this
week and very very tough to beat in front of a packed Skilled Park. Keep
an eye on Prince and other senior players in the Titans side to really
step up and lead the Titans to victory. Pick – 3 units on Titans to win
Rabbitohs +6.0 v Dragons
3 at 1.97
+2.91
Rabbitohs to bt Dragons
1 at 2.83
-1
The Rabbitohs seem to keep finding
themselves in this situation, desperately needing a win to stay in the
top eight, it should not be this way for a side that has arguably the
best forward pack in the competition on paper and backs that are more
than capable, to their credit though they’ve won such desperate games
similar to this over the past months and I’m expecting them to fire
again when it’s desperately needed here. The Dragons were
uncharacteristically average in their last outing in losing to the
Panthers, they do welcome back their origin stars here though but are
still without Weyman in the forwards and Cooper at Centre, the Bunnies
on the other hand are still without Isaac Luke but Falloon looks a
capable replacement at Hooker. I’m not convinced we’ll see the Dragons
return to their best here, they were severely disrupted through Origin
and are still without two of their best players whilst the return of
Gasnier in their last match was a fizzer and they’re about to encounter
a very experienced and toughened Souths side that are playing for their
season. The Bookies have the Bunnies at very generous odds and have
subsequently given them a decent point start which we’ll have for our
best bet of the weekend. Pick – 3 units on Rabbitohs +6.0 point start
(BEST BET) and 1 unit on Rabbitohs to win
Eels to bt Panthers
3 at 2.50
+4.5
There’s a feeling of déjà vu in the air
following the Eels commanding performance against the Cowboys in which
Hayne took us back in time to this time last year where he shifted up a
couple of gears and kick started the Eels on their charge to the Grand
Final, I for one believe that history could be about to somewhat repeat
and the Eels are going to be very tough to beat over the coming weeks.
Hayne was superb against the Cowboys and once the Eels relaxed a little
and passes started to stick then the points came, and I expect the tries
to keep coming this week against the Panthers who are coming into this
fresh off a loss to the Warriors. The Panthers successful season to date
has had a lot to do with confidence and that confidence would have taken
a big dent last week after their attack could only muster a mere 6
points against the visiting Warriors and to make matters worse they’ve
lost the inspirational Luke Lewis this week to injury. This match is
going to be won with confidence and desperation, two things the Eels
will be full of, and I am more than happy backing them to get the upset
here. Pick – 3 units on Eels to win
Sea Eagles -7.0 v Sharks
3 at 1.92
+2.76
The Sharks season is all but over whilst
the Sea Eagles are just outside the top eight but have barely shifted
out of 3rd gear over the past month or so, that has to change from this
week on though if they’re to make the finals. There is no way on earth
Des Hasler will put up with anything but 110% from his players from this
point on and a big win here is exactly what’s needed to mend the damage
that the last month has done to their confidence and looking at the team
sheet for this match there is no doubt that if they turn up with the
right attitude and intensity, which they will, then they’ll put up a
large total against the battling Sharks whilst limiting the home side to
single digits. The Sea Eagles avalanche will begin in the forwards as we
see the high tempo attack that’s characterised this Manly machine over
the past few seasons giving Foran and Hodkinson the perfect platform to
remind us how good they can be in leading the damaging backline. The
Bookies have Manly as favourites but the line is not large and they’ll
cover it with ease. Pick – 3 units on Sea Eagles -7.0 point start
NRL ROUND EIGHTEEN
Titans +4.5 v Tigers
2 at 1.92
+1.84
Even though they came away with the win
over the Broncos last week I was left disgusted with the Tigers effort,
especially after backing them to cover the line, they looked like they’d
bet against themselves and I was shocked to discover the following
morning they’d won (I threw the TV out the window at halftime). The
Titans meanwhile come into this fresh off the Bye, which was just what
the doctor ordered following their surprise loss to the Knights at
Skilled Park the previous week, they were without their co-captain and
talisman Scott Prince though who is back in the side for this match,
with Campbell moving back to his best position of fullback. The Tigers
are without their star Englishman Gareth Ellis in the second-row but
they do welcome back Robert Lui to halfback whilst the Titans have
Tagatese and Mead out in the backs but have sufficient cover and their
side looks the goods, on paper at least. With Prince back we’ll see the
Titans at their best, they have a more experienced and disciplined pack
than the Tigers and pace to burn right across the park. If the Tigers
play anywhere near as pedestrian as they did last week then they’ll be
flogged, but I’m sure they’ll lift somewhat, but not enough to cover the
point start. Pick – 2 units on Titans +4.5 point start.
Roosters to bt Rabbitohs
2 at 2.03
+2.06
The last time these two met was back in
round one where the Roosters upset the favoured Bunnies and ran home
easy winners 36-10. The Roosters have close to their strongest side
available for this clash whilst the Bunnies are missing a crucial
ingredient to their success this year – Isaac Luke whose form has been
devastating and his skirting runs around dummy half have led to
countless metres gained and numerous tries. Luke’s absence gives the
Roosters the upper hand with regards offensive firepower and I saw
enough from them last week in their win over the Raiders to suggest
they’re going to be a handful for the up and down Bunnies. Roosters
coach Brian Smith is a good motivator of men, especially come the big
occasion, and I have no doubt he will have pencilled in this clash
against their old foe as one of the bigger games of the regular season
and he’ll have his players fired up, as they were in round one. The
Bookies have the Bunnies as slight favourites but the Roosters hold more
aces up their sleeve and I am happy to back them for the win to get our
OTP balance looking more healthy!! Pick – 2 units on Roosters to win.
Panthers -8.5 v Warriors
3 at 1.91
-3
The
Warriors have impressed in winning three in a row but all of those
victories have been in New Zealand so this trip to Penrith is a whole
different ball game for them, especially given they’re up against the
in-form team of the competition who are welcoming back some heavy
artillary for this clash. The Panthers defensive effort in beating the
Dragons on Monday night was brilliant and if the effort is similar here
then the Warriors will not crack double digits. We’ve already seen this
year just how vulnerable the Warriors are away from NZ and I can’t help
but feel they’re about to face a reality check in the form of a very
consistent and determined Panthers side. The line for this is not as
large as I was expecting so I’m more than happy to recommend backing the
home side to cover it for the weekends best bet. Pick – 3 units on
Panthers -8.5 point start (BEST BET)
NRL ROUND SEVENTEEN
Tigers -4.5 v Broncos
3 at 1.98
-3
The Tigers will arrive in Brisbane
for this match brimming with confidence given the relative strength of
the side they've named in comparison to the Broncos who have a number of
second stringers filling the absence of the stars they have away for
origin duties along with recent injuries to Setu and Glenn. The Tigers
winning run came to a screeching halt last week when they crashed and
burned to the Dragons whilst the Broncos ground out a win over the
sliding Eels, this will be a much tougher match for them though. There
is a huge gulf of experience between these sides with the Tigers holding
a huge advantage over the Broncos and I just feel they're going to hold
all the aces as they capitalise on the opportunity they've been
presented with and clock up a large try tally whilst frustrating the
Broncos offence with some in-your-face defence from their large and
mobile forwards. The Tigers have lost their last four in a row to the
Broncos but there's no way this side will make it five; the Bookies have
them as favourites but the line is not large and I expect they'll cover
it! Pick - 3 units on Tigers -4.5 point start
(BEST BET)
Eels to bt Warriors
3 at 2.45
-3
Funny as it sounds but Haynes absence from
the Eels side to play the Warriors could be the best thing for them
given his apparent rift with coach Daniel Anderson and the effect this
is having on his game. I'm expecting the team to gel in Haynes absence
and the trip across the Tasman is the perfect starting point for a
turnaround in fortunes for the out of sorts Eels, they certainly do not
lack in big game players and what better chance for the Halves pairing
of Robson and Mortimer to remind us of their potential and step up and
spark the Eels faltering offence. The Warriors got out of jail last week
against the Roosters thanks to the champion qualities of the Hatrick
scoring Locke whose match winning heroics have cost him a couple of
weeks out injured, joining another match winner on the sidelines in
Brent Tate. The biggest battle for the Warriors will be constructing
tries against the second best defence in the competition and whilst the
Eels themselves have struggled for points I'm confident we'll see a
revitalised Eels offence. There is a lot of experience in this Eels pack
who won't have taken the recent slide down the points table lightly,
this is a great opportunity to show their champion qualities though and
I'm confident we'll see the Eels go back to Sydney victorious. Pick - 3
units on Eels to win
Dragons -7.0 v Panthers
3 at 1.90
-3
The Dragons just continue to churn out
comfortable victory after comfortable victory and I see this week as
being no different, at home against a Panthers side who are missing
their three stars - Civoniceva, Lewis and Jennings. The Dragons have
lost Weyman, Boyd and Cooper but have greater depth than the Panthers
and the ace up their sleeve in the return of Gasnier who will be making
his long awaited return to the great game. I can't believe Jamie Soward
has missed out on a NSW jumper.....their loss is the Dragons gain though
and he'll do what he's been doing all year, leading this formidable
offence, along with Hornby in the Halves, off the back of what I expect
will be yet another dominant forward display, then chuck in the best
defence in the competition and you've got yourself a comfortable win to
this unstoppable juggernaut. The line from the Bookies should be larger
here and the Dragons will cover it with ease. Pick - 3 units on Dragons
-7.5 or better point start
NRL ROUND SIXTEEN
Sea Eagles +6.5 v Panthers
2 at 1.94
-2
Manly are missing their key ingredient to so much of their success this
week with Jamie Lyon succumbing to injury but even without him they have
a real chance of upsetting the high flying Panthers here. The Panthers
go into this fresh off a very good win away over the Broncos and will be
focusing on much the same here, especially from their halves who will be
tested by another high flying young pairing in Hodkinson and Foran. The
Sea Eagles key strength lies in their forward pack who are bolstered
this week with the return of Watmough from injury, giving them a very
formidable look and if they can get the ascendancy over the Panthers
then life will be a whole lot easier out wide and points will come. I
expect this match will be dominated by defence rather than attack so
even though the point start to the visiting Sea Eagles is slim I’ll
happily jump on it. Tempted to back the win but let’s just start the
weekend safely. Pick – 2 units on Sea Eagles +5.5 or better point start
Eels to bt Broncos
3 at 1.87
-3
The Eels were dreadful on Monday night in losing to the Knights and will
have worked hard on their ball handling and discipline going into this
clash with the Broncos who themselves suffered a loss last week to the
Panthers. The Eels have lost the angry Tahu this week but have otherwise
named a very formidable side to take on the side that’s standing between
them and a spot in the top eight. I expect a very big game from the Eels
as they right the wrongs of Monday night and get the win in front of
their home fans. The Eels will win this match through intensity on
defence, they have conceded nearly 100 less points that the Broncos this
year, and will move the ball around a lot on attack, creating chances
that will become points as those 50/50 passes stick, unlike Monday
night. Pick – 3 units on Eels to win (BEST BET)
Rabbitohs to bt Storm
2 at 2.65
+3.3
The Bunnies are at full strength going into this match which means they
are fielding one of the most formidable packs in the competition and
with a mixed run of results lately they’ll be targeting this game for a
big turnaround against a Storm side I expect will run hot and cold for
the rest of the season, this will be the cold following last weeks
sizzling performance in demolishing the Cowboys. This match is on
neutral ground in Perth so does not favour either side but the result
will come down to attitude and intensity - the Bunnies have everything
to play for and the Storm don’t. The Bunnies have clocked up more points
than any other side on attack this season, their main problem though has
been defence with regular lapses in intensity letting them down but that
won’t be a problem here. The forwards are going to lay the platform and
the backs will razzle and dazzle – the bookies have overinflated the
odds for the Bunnies to win and have some of that great value.
Pick – 2 units on Rabbitohs to win
NRL ROUND FIFTEEN
Panthers to bt Broncos
2 at 2.66
+3.32
The Broncos have a number of players facing
just a two day turnaround from Wednesday nights origin match whilst the
Panthers just have Waterhouse doing the double and will be grateful to
the judiciary in allowing them to have Lewis come into this fresh
following his one match suspension. Despite the Broncos great recent
form I can’t see them firing collectively as a team once again this week
with their big three – Folau, Lockyer and Thaiday still coming down from
the high of yet another Queensland origin series win, they’re up against
a fresh Panthers side who have a healthy win record at Suncorp Stadium
and who are themselves playing the best they have in years and
subsequently are second on the points table – all of which points to
good value on them to snatch the upset win. Pick – 2 units on Panthers
to win
Bulldogs to bt Titans
3 at 2.26
-3
It seems I’m a sucker for punishment
from this Bulldogs side thus far in 2010 and backing them has cost us
some valuable units, there is life left in the blue and whites though
and this game, more than any they’ve played to date, is the most
defining for their season and I’m confident they’ll come through for
themselves, their fans and, most importantly, us punters. The Titans
were good for us last week and came through against Manly with flying
colours, they were at Skilled Park though and up against a fairly
depleted Manly side, this match will be a much bigger hurdle as I expect
the Dogs senior players in the likes of Kimmorley, Ennis, Ryan, Patten
and Stagg to really lift themselves and also demand more from the
talented youngsters they have around them. This will be vintage Bulldogs
and a decent payday for you Punters as the Bookies have joined the
bandwagon of anti Bulldog sentiment – they ain’t done with yet! Pick – 3
units on Bulldogs to win (BEST BET)
Raiders +8.0 v Tigers
3 at 1.92
-3
Like a number of other sides this year the
Raiders have been all over the show, triumphant one week and then
looking like a disinterested mob of guys that have just met each other
for the first time the next, with last weeks loss to the Cowboys being a
good example of the latter. With the talent that this Raiders side has I
struggle to see how they don’t win more matches, their forward pack can
be devastating, as we’ve seen in glimpses this season, whilst with
Campese and McCrone in the Halves and the likes of Vidot, Monaghan and
Milne outside them there is no excuse for their mediocre 11th placing on
the ladder. You know where I’m heading with this….the Tigers good
momentum they built up going into the Bye will have been somewhat halted
with the break whilst the Raiders will be more than up for this match
following a series of performances that, by their own admission, they
need to forget and take the opportunities in front of them (if they’re
not 110% up for this then heads should roll – starting with the entire
coaching staff!!). Marshall and Farah are the obvious dangers on attack
for the Tigers but I’m confident the Raiders will have plenty of points
of their own and that point start on offer is looking very good. Pick –
3 units on Raiders +7.5 or better point start
NRL ROUND FOURTEEN
Titans -6.0 v Sea Eagles
3 at 1.91
+2.73
The Titans fortress of Skilled Park was
breached last game here when they were thrashed by the Roosters, they
followed that match up with another loss last week to the Raiders in
Canberra and are all of a sudden not looking so flash sitting at 6th on
the table, two places behind the Sea Eagles who themselves had a loss
last match out against the Broncos. The Titans have only lost Harrison
to origin selection whilst the Sea Eagles have a few out through
suspension and injury, namely Watmough, Lyon and Matai – three key
players who form the backbone of this side. The Bookies have the Titans
as favourites but the line posted by them is way too skinny and I expect
the home side to cover it with ease, using their weight of experience
and flair to chalk up a comfortable win and get their season back on
track in style. Pick – 3 units on Titans -6.5 or better point start
Knights -4.0 v Warriors
3 at 1.91
-3
I’ve been rubbing my hands together
since the odds were posted for this match as the Knights are offering
very good value against a side that they’re below on the points table
but I expect them to right that wrong in style here. The Warriors
punched above their weight last week in nearly beating the Dragons
whilst the Knights put in a lethargic effort in losing to the Panthers
with a number of their senior players looking tired and frustrated, in
particular Adam McDougall who should be sharper this week having dusted
off the cobwebs last week following his injury absence. The Knights have
lost their captain Kurt Gidley to origin and have lost Steve Simpson to
injury, they’re relatively well off though compared to the Warriors who
have a number of their best players sidelined through injury with the
latest being Brent Tate. The Knights will be too strong for the Warriors
in literally every position here, none more so than in the Halves as
Dureau and Mullen will spark the attack that will see the home side
clock up plenty of points as the defence of the Warriors gets more paper
thin as the game progresses. The line is way too skinny and it’s great
value for the the Knights to cover it with ease.
Pick – 3 units on Knights -4.5 or better point start
(BEST BET)
NRL ROUND THIRTEEN
Eels to bt Storm
3 at 2.30
+3.9
The Eels currently sit outside the
top eight and following their 30-0 drubbing at the hands of the Dragons
last week their fans and seasoned coach Daniel Anderson will be
demanding a head-turning performance here against a Storm side who are
choc full of talent but are just making up the numbers in terms of the
points table and I'm confident we'll see the side that has the most to
gain from the win here take out the victory - the Eels. The Storm
welcome back their captain and Hooker Cameron Smith for this 2009 Grand
Final replay but I don’t expect his presence to make a difference to the
result. The Eels feel hard done by from the NRL and are arguably
deserving of the 2009 title and we’ll see those emotions spill out onto
the field in what I expect will be an Eels signature performance for the
season so far. The Bookies have the Storm as clear favourites here which
makes the near full strength Eels side very good value and I’m more than
happy recommending you hard working punters invest in them for the win -
good value! Pick - 3 units on Eels to win (BEST
BET)
Bulldogs to bt Tigers
2 at 2.27
-2
Even after taking into account the Bulldogs
poor recent form, their less than average record over the Tigers and
injured personnel I was still surprised to see what the Bookies have
priced them at to win this match. The Dogs do have some injury concerns
but have still managed to name a very good side to take the field here
and as long as their attitude is right, which it will be, they will be
more than a handful for the Tigers who will find this a very large step
up from the woeful Warriors who they crushed last week. We'll see a
number of these Bulldogs senior players really step up here and the team
will remind us of their 2009 credentials, particularly on defence where
they'll frustrate the Tigers offence through lack of opportunities. This
won't be a huge win but a win nonetheless to the Dogs and again the
Bookies are offering good value! Pick – 2 units on Bulldogs to win
Knights to bt Panthers
2 at 2.66
-2
Having had last week off with the Bye, I
feel the Knights are in a good position here to climb their way up from
the woeful 12th position they are on the points table. The Knights
finally welcome back Adam McDougall to the Centres and his highly
competitive nature is bound to lift those around him and with a few
other injuries cleared up throughout the side it all of a sudden has a
very good look to it, with a good mixture of experience, power and class
that will cause this Panthers side, who are still without their
inspirational captain Civoniceva, some major headaches. Gidley’s
performance at Halfback will be closely watched by the NSW selectors and
I don’t expect him to disappoint and his partnership with Mullen will
lead to plenty of points for the Visitors. Sorry Panthers fans but the
slide down the ladder continues this week as we cash in on the great
value on offer for the Knights. Pick – 2 units on Knights to win
NRL ROUND TWELVE
Tigers -6.5 v Warriors
3 at 1.92
+2.76
The Tigers go into this following a convincing win over the Knights in a
match where they finally showed some ticker following a month of below
par performances whilst the Warriors also go into this with some
momentum having picked up their second win in a row, this time over the
Rabbitohs in Auckland. I was expecting the odds to be firmer in the
favour of the Tigers here as they’ve got the game breakers the Warriors
lack and having turned a corner last week they’re not about to lose at
home to a side that lacks consistency and has a dreadful record on the
road. The Tigers forward pack – led by Farah, Gibbs, Ellis and Payten
will dominate the visitors and create the go forward that Marshall and
Farah will turn into points, and plenty of them. The Warriors are not a
top eight side and are about to get shunted down the ladder by a Tigers
side that won’t be lacking in intensity and desire. The line is too
narrow here and I am more than happy to recommend you punters to cash in
on it! Pick – 3 units on Tigers -6.5 point start
(BEST BET)
Cowboys to bt Sea Eagles
2 at 2.36
-2
The Sea Eagles have been uncharacteristically
inconsistent so far this season and will be giving the Bookies a few
headaches as they try and nail down which Manly side will turn up each
week, with this in mind they’ve taken a bit of a risk here in installing
them as favourites, in Townsville, against a Cowboys side that’s
fielding close to their strongest line-up this season and are desperate
to get the win. Both these sides had the Bye last round and both
suffered losses in their last outings, the Cowboys going down to the
Warriors in Auckland whilst the Sea Eagles lost at home to the Eels, of
the two sides though it’s the Cowboys who need this win the most having
clocked up just 3 wins so far this season, sitting them at a miserable
14th on the table, a phenomenal situation for a side that is brimming
with backline talent and muscle in the forwards – I’m confident they
will be well and truly up for this though. A number of these Cowboys
forwards are prone to inconsistency but really rise to the occasion when
the heat has come on the side and criticism has been levelled at them –
with this in mind I’m sure we’re about to see some very big performances
from the likes of O’Donnell, Mason, Webb, Kaufusi and co – if they can
win the battle of the forwards, and I believe they will, then Thurston
showed on Origin night he’s in season best form and will need no second
invitation to create havoc amongst the Manly defence. Manly have more
players backing up from origin and they could be a tad weary, either way
though the odds on the Cowboys to get the win are handy and we’ll have a
piece of it. Pick – 2 units on Cowboys to win
Rabbitohs to bt Panthers
3 at 2.00
+3
Credit where it’s due to the Panthers, they’ve been
one of the most consistent sides so far this season and again showed
their class in easily beating the Bulldogs on Monday night, the
Rabbitohs though are on the opposite side of the scale and are possibly
the most inconsistent side in the competition and go into this fresh off
a loss to the Warriors in Auckland. Inconsistency aside, this is a very
capable Souths side with one of the best forward packs, on their day, in
the competition and they showed two rounds ago just what can happen when
they flex their muscles in beating the Tigers by a record margin. I’m
very confident this match will be one that we see the Bunnies at close
to their best - on home turf and with their strongest side possible
named (or very close to it) they’ll look to pummel the visitors into
submission with their big and very mobile forward pack, whilst they’ve
got a great depth of experience and talent in the backs who know their
way to try-line. The Bookies have struggled to split these two sides but
I’ve got no qualms about backing the Bunnies to show us their better
side and come away with a comfortable win. Pick – 3 units on Rabbitohs
to win
NRL ROUND ELEVEN
Tigers to bt Knights
3 at 1.94
+2.82
The Tigers are very well placed here
to bounce back and go some way to redeeming themselves following their
pathetically gutless effort in being thrashed by Souths last week, with
no players out through Origin and facing a Newcastle side that’s without
lost three of their stars in Mullen, De Gois and Gidley. One thing the
Tigers have not lacked over the years is character and there’s no way
Tim Sheens will have taken last weeks loss well, not senior players such
as Farah (who won’t be happy following his origin omission) and Marshall
– who I expect will lead the dramatic turnaround this week. The Tigers
defence will have worked incredibly hard this week to get their
attitude, technique and intensity right for this match and they’ll be
hard to breach, whilst those two already mentioned – Marshall and Farah
– will create plenty for the side on attack. The Bookies have split
these sides as even but I’m really liking the Tigers to bounce back and
take this. Pick – 3 units on Tigers to win
(BEST BET)
Sharks +11.5 v Eels
2 at 1.85
+1.7
The Sharks are unscathed from origin
selection following the shock omission of Gallen from the NSW squad, the
Eels on the other hand are without Tahu and Hayne in the backline. The
Eels have surprisingly lost their last four encounters against the
Sharks and with still plenty to play for in 2010 I think there’s every
possibility the Sharks could make it five in a row here. The Sharks have
a very solid forward pack that fire up sporadically and with the
firepower of Tupou and Morris returning to the side this week, and fired
up captain who has a point to prove, along with a healthy amount of
experience, not to mention the class of Smith and Barrett in the Halves
then you’ve got a side that I’m happy to back with the 10.5 point start
on offer. The Sharks own worst enemy is attitude and self belief but I
don’t expect either to be an issue here. Pick – 2 units on Sharks +10.5
or better point start
Raiders to bt Dragons
2 at 2.26
+2.52
This is a golden opportunity for the
Raiders to snatch an away win over the runaway competition favourites
who happen to have close to half their starting side out through origin
duties, the Raiders on the other hand have lost two players in
Learoyd-Lahrs and Shillington. I’m expecting a particularly large game
from Dugan and Campese – two players unlucky to miss origin selection,
and with Monaghan now back and playing dangerously he’ll be hard to stop
under Campo’s high balls to the corner. The only issue here is the
Raiders attitude on the road, sometimes appearing lacklustre and
disinterested, I can’t see that being an issue here though as they must
surely appreciate what a big task they have on their hands and that
master coach Bennett will still have this Dragons side primed for a big
one. The forward battle will be close but I see the match being won
primarily off the back of those three Raiders stars mentioned above –
Monaghan, Campese and Dugan, as they lift the team to a gutsy away win.
I was hoping for better value on the Raiders but we’ll have a piece of
it anyway. Pick – 2 units on Raiders to win
NRL ROUND TEN
Broncos to bt Titans
3 at 1.88
+2.64
The Broncos played their best game of the
season last week in demolishing the Storm and with four players
returning this week from injury their stocks are all of a sudden looking
very healthy, especially with Wallace returning in the halves to provide
some much needed support for Lockyer. Their opposition here, the Titans,
are also riding high following their win last week over the Knights, I
was not inspired by that effort though given the Knights kept inviting
them back into the match with some poor defence and handling errors,
this week will be a much tougher challenge. The Broncos forward pack
will be looking to follow-up last weeks dominant effort with another
here and will match the impressive Titans pack, whilst the options on
attack for the Broncos are looking good and they will ask plenty of
questions of the Titans defence. Hunt is better suited to Hooker for the
Broncos and adds another string to their bow, whilst Folau and others in
the backline looked unstoppable against the Storm and I expect a
continuation of that effort here. The Bookies can't split these two
sides but I can - Broncos to win!! Pick - 3 units on Broncos to win
Warriors -7.5 v Cowboys
3 at 2.05
+3.15
The Warriors have been a real bogy
side for onthepunt this season - putting in pathetically spineless
efforts when I've backed them to fire and then playing out of their skin
when I've backed them to fail miserably...I'm confident I've finally
come to grips with their pattern though, so much so that I'll get back
on that horse and back them again here to fire on home soil with some
key personel returning in Mannering and Vatuvai along with Brett Seymour
who will provide some much needed spark in the halves. The Cowboys go
into this fresh off a gutsy win over the Roosters but like the Warriors
they are up and down like a yo-yo and I'm not convinced they've got
another performance like that in them two weeks in a row away from home.
The Cowboys will be confronted with a very fired up Warriors pack and a
defence that will have worked hard following some pathetic efforts in
their last two matches. The Warriors have shown they're capable of at
least the odd good performance this season and I'm very confident we'll
see them play close to their capacity here and win this one quite
comfortably against what looks set to be an injury hit Cowboys side.
*Check final teams. Pick - 3 units on Warriors -7.5 point start
(BEST BET)
Raiders to bt Storm
2 at 2.40
-2
The motivation for the Storm to lift each
week is going to get tougher and tougher and without their captain and
Hooker Cam Smith last week they looked a shadow of the side in losing to
the Broncos and nothing like the team that had comfortably won the
previous two games they played following the salary cap breach. I'm not
convinced we're going to see any great turnaround in motivation and
attitude here as they are up against a fresh and close to fully fit
Raiders side who will be well and truly up for this match, looking to
capitalise on the Storms predicament. It's short and sweet for this
match, Cam Smith's leadership is a key ingredient in this Storm sides
success and his absence leaves a gapping hole, they need a leader now
more than ever and I just can't see them lifting to the level needed to
win this match, the Raiders though look to have turned a corner
following their away win over the Warriors in Auckland two weeks ago and
should not have any motivational issues here. The Bookies have the
Raiders as the underdogs and we'll happily jump on the generous price on
offer. Pick - 2 units on Raiders to win
NRL ROUND NINE
Sea Eagles to bt Dragons
2 at 2.60
+3.2
Both these sides have over half their
squads involved in Friday night rep footy so the actual make-up of the
sides that take the field compared to those named could be quite
different depending on how they come through Friday. The Dragons just
keep churning out top class performances and their attitude is
phenomenal, turning up each week like they're playing in the grand
final, this week will be a very big challenge for them though against a
Sea Eagles side that's looking very strong and will be determined to get
some momentum going in their season following some early inconsistent
form, but last weeks win over the Rabbitohs looked like a real turning
point. This will be a very even forward battle and the great form of the
Manly halves will match it with Hornby and Soward but where this match
will be won will be in defence and I see the big Brookvale crowd lifting
the Sea Eagles to an upset win in a close, low scoring match. Pick - 2
units on the Sea Eagles to win
Knights to bt Titans
3 at 1.91
-3
Both these sides only have a handful
of players each backing up from Friday night Representative duties so
I'm not expecting any major changes to the line-ups come kick-off. The
Bookies are struggling to split these two sides but I'm confident the
Knights will prosper on home soil and with an extra skip in their step
following last week away win over the Broncos. Prince's return last week
was a boost for the Titans but he's still be a couple of matches away
from top form and with the Titans traditional struggles on the road I'm
not convinced we'll see them at their best here. The Knights have plenty
of points in them with Dureau and Mullen forming a dangerous pairing in
the halves, Gidley chiming in around the rucks and a forward pack that
fires up in front of their home fans and they're the type of team that
rely on momentum so it's important for them to start strong and kick on.
Knights to win this with attitude and aggression. Pick - 3 units on
Knights to win (BEST BET)
NRL ROUND EIGHT
Bulldogs to bt Eels
2 at 2.75
-2
The Eels slipped past the Cowboys last week, doing enough (just) to win
the match, but it was clear to anyone watching that they're still a mile
away from being the formidable force we saw at the back end of last
season whilst the Dogs were much more convincing in their demolition of
the Broncos. The Dogs have finally found some good form following their
early season woes and even with Roberts and Morris out of the side I
still expect them to come away with the win here as the Eels are still
finding their attacking feet and will struggle against this tough and
uncompromising Dogs defence. Blake Green coming in at Five-Eight will
provide good support to Kimmorley and will be jumping at the chance to
prove his value to the Dogs and I'm expecting a big game from him. The
players that need to be hitting top form for the Dogs are doing just
that with the likes of Ennis, Kimmorley, Ryan, Patten and Idris all
causing real problems to defensive lines over the last fortnight whilst
their pocket rocket of the bench - Barba - is always good for a try or
two as he continues to bamboozle the opposition. The crowd support will
be fairly even for both sides at ANZ Stadium and I expect the Dogs fans
to leave the ground happy following a continuation of their sides march
towards the top of the points table. Pick - 2 units on Bulldogs to win.
Warriors -6.0 v Raiders
3.5 at 1.92
-3.5
The Raiders gave up yet another big half time lead last week in
losing to the Rabbitohs whilst the Warriors were humiliated by the
Storm, which I'm expecting will be a leading motivational factor for
them to bounce back here. The Raiders have been hit very hard by injury
for this clash losing their captain Tongue who is joining Millar, Fensom
and Mogg on the sidelines and I expect that demoralising loss last week
to the Bunnies to have taken its toll on those taking the field and am
not expecting them to be anywhere near their best, the Warriors on the
other hand are at their most dangerous following a loss like that last
week and whilst they lack the consistency to be anywhere close to top
eight contenders they're capable of pulling out big performances, which
is what we'll get from them here. Lance Hohaia is back to what I feel is
his best position at fullback and will steady things up there. The
entire Warriors side will have been put on notice this week and we'll
see a much more solid defensive line whilst the attack will enjoy
slightly more room this week up against a less formidable defense that
that of the Storm. The Warriors are favourites to win, which is fair
given the Raiders poor away record, and I expect they'll cover the
narrow line easily in what should be yet another Jekyll and Hyde
fortnight from them. Pick - 3.5 units on Warriors -6.0 point start
(BEST BET)
Titans -2.0 v Panthers
2.5 at 1.99
+2.47
The Panthers have been the surprise package of the 2010 season to date
and currently sit second on the table, this week though will be one of
their bigger tests against a Gold Coast side that's fresh off a very
gutsy win over Manly on Monday night and who have the best home ground
record of any side in the competition. The Titans play a very fast paced
game and could run some of the big Panthers forwards off their feet here
which will lead to some big yardage around the rucks, which is exactly
what you don't want to give the Titans as they've got pace to burn out
wide and a very handy halves combo of Campbell and Bird who will
capitalise if given the chances down the right end of the field. It's
short and sweet here, the Panthers have been impressive but this is
their biggest test in a while and man for man the Titans have the
advantage with experience and class, couple that with the Skilled Park
factor and you've got a decent winning margin to the home side. The
Bookies have given favouritism to the Titans but the line to cover is
small and I expect them to cover it easily. Pick - 2.5 units on Titans
-3.5 or better point start
Rabbitohs to bt Sea Eagles
2 at 2.31
-2
The Rabbitohs win last week over the Raiders was definitely a tale of
two halves, they were lethargic and ineffective in the first half and
went into the break well down only to come out a completely different
side in the second and run down the Raiders in formidable style, led by
a rampaging forward pack. The Sea Eagles go into this off the back of a
loss to the Titans on Monday night having given up a decent lead in the
final quarter of the match, regardless of that performance though
they've still be installed as favourites here, which is good for us as
I'm happy backing the Bunnies. The Rabbitohs forward pack will be well
and truly up for this clash as it's possibly their best test to date
that will show how good they really are, up against one of the best
packs in the competition. When the attitude is right from the Bunnies
they are very hard to stop and as they showed in the second half last
week once they gain that ascendancy in the forwards the whole side lifts
and they've got class players right across the park who can capitalise
on such momentum and turn it into points. There will be plenty of
pressure heaped on the young Sea Eagles halves this week, particularly
on defence as some of the monster Bunnies forwards test them out,
whether they're at that level yet to handle such pressure is yet to be
seen, I'm predicting they'll have a relatively ineffective match though
which could spell troubles for the rest of the Manly offence. The odds
are good for the Bunnies to win and I think the Bookies have got this
one wrong. Pick - 2 units on Rabbitohs to win
NRL ROUND SEVEN
Bulldogs -7.5 v Broncos
3 at 1.93
+2.79
The Bulldogs well and truly got
things back on track last week in thrashing the Tigers in a complete
performance that saw a defensive line that was as good as anything they
offered last year and a return to the formidable attack that caused
havoc to many oppositions in 2009, whilst the Broncos took all their
opportunities last week and clocked up a huge win over the struggling
Sharks. The Dogs have named an unchanged side to last week whilst the
Broncos have lost their halfback Peter Wallace to injury and have named
young Ben Hunt in his place. In terms of opposition last week I'm
reading much more into the Dogs victory than that of the Broncos given
the Tigers are a class above the Sharks and I'm not convinced the
Broncos have the organisation in defence to cope against what is a
rejuvenated Dogs attack, and as far as their own attack goes the Broncos
will find the Dogs line very hard to penetrate, especially with Wallace
out and the burden having to fall squarely on the shoulders of Lockyer.
I've been waiting for the Dogs to click for some time now and that
performance last week will be a sign of things to come. The players that
needed to step up did so in fine style with Ennis, Kimmorley, Roberts
and Patten all having their best match of 2010 and it will be those
players this week that will again lead the way here. The Bookies have
given the Dogs heavy favouritism and the line is large but they'll cover
it with ease. Pick – 3 units Bulldogs -7.5 point start.
(BEST BET)
Sharks to bt Knights
2 at 2.66
+3.32
The Sharks have had two weeks to forget
with consecutive thrashings at the hands of Manly then last week to the
Broncos, they're up against a rejuvenated Knights side this week too
following their big win over the Cowboys with the return of Kirt Gidley
sparking the offence. These two sides have had some great battles over
recent seasons and I expect this match to be another. The last match the
Sharks played at home they upset the Eels led by a brilliant defence
which held the Eels scoreless and a persistent attack led by the more
than capable halves duo of Smith and Barrett who have had three weeks
together now to get used to each others roles and strengths. Newcastle
are certainly better off with Gidley back but they showed last week in
falling asleep in the second half against the Cowboys that they're still
not firing at anywhere near 100%, the Sharks we know are well well short
of that also but they do have a very capable and experienced pack that's
only ever a week away from upsetting a side, especially at Shark Park
where they do lift. Ricky Stuart is a very tough competitor and whilst a
top 8 spot in 2010 is a very distant (and very highly unlikely) dream he
will be doing all he can to get his side up for every match and I expect
them to be at a similar level of intensity that we saw from them 3 weeks
ago against the Eels. The experienced campaigners in the Sharks side in
Gallen, Tupou, Douglas and Morris will lead the way here and with three
weeks of playing together now behind them I am confident we'll see
something special from Smith and Barrett who have all the skills and
proven brilliance there and this week will be where it comes together.
I'm expecting this to be
a tight game with a try deciding it either way - I like the Sharks as I expect a big step up in intensity and accuracy as
they try to restore some of the clubs pride in front of their loyal
fans. Pick – 2 units on Sharks to win.
Rabbitohs to bt Raiders
2 at 2.20
+2.4
The Rabbitohs are fast becoming one of the
most unpredictable sides in the competition, putting in stunning
performances one week and looking average the next, last week saw the
more average side of their play in going down to the Eels. Their
opposition here, the Raiders, are proving to be similarly unpredictable
but the difference with them is that with the personnel they have
there's not the same weight of expectation on them each week which is
fortunate considering their effort last week in losing heavily to the
Roosters and to make matters worse they’re without one of their better
performed players in halfback Josh McCrone this week. The Raiders are
going to be up against it here as the Bunnies look to bounce back, they
know what to expect from the Raiders at home - a tough, fast paced
encounter, and will be ready for it with much of the same from
themselves. The Bunnies forward pack is amongst the most formidable in
the competition and I'm confident we'll see them at their best here
following the bollocking they would have received from Souths coach John
Lang during the week. With the forwards leading the way the likes of
Sandow and Sutton in the halves will have plenty of ball and position to
work with and they've shown just how capable they are once the momentum
and confidence is with them. The Bunnies are much stronger on paper
here, even with the loss of their and will be too strong on the field of
play as well. The Bookies have these two sides fairly even, with the
Bunnies slight underdogs and I'm more than happy to jump on the healthy
odds. Pick – 2 units on Rabbitohs to win.
Roosters to bt Dragons
2 at 2.86
-2
NO WRITE-UP AVAILABLE. Pick – 2 units on
Roosters to win.
NRL ROUND SIX
Bulldogs to bt Tigers
2 at 2.35
+2.7
The Dogs woeful start to 2010 continued last week in going down to the
Warriors in a match they were well and truly expected to win and was
particularly hard to stomach given the huge chances I was giving them of
an easy win. The Tigers are in the opposite boat with just the one loss
so far this season and looking every bit the form side of the
competition with an exciting brand of play that has had opposition
defence bamboozled. I am not giving up on the Dogs just yet and know
that this side is just moments away from turning things around. You
could see on the faces of the players that enough is enough following
that loss to the Warriors and this match will be where the character of
this proud club shines through. The key to beating this Tigers side is
to get them on the back foot from the outset and have them playing
catch-up football, this will be achieved by the Dogs with a return to
the characteristic defence of 2009 and the precision from the halves
pairing of Roberts and Kimmorley that saw the likes of Goodwin and
Morris crossing the line with great regularity last year. Confidence is
lacking in the Dogs but as long as they fly out of the box with the
desperation one would expect from a side in their position and have the
Tigers backpedalling then they will force the errors as those 50/50
passes and million dollar plays will stop coming off and the Dogs will
have more than a good sniff at the win. Pick – 2 units on the Bulldogs
to win
Knights -9.5 v Cowboys
3 at 1.90
+2.7
The Knights have let a couple of games slip from their grasp so far this
season, last week was not one of them though as they were
comprehensively dealt to by the Rabbitohs, they have a great opportunity
hear of getting things back on track against a Cowboys side who have
lost the heart and soul of their offence – Jonathan Thurston, and some
other heavy artillery in Southern and O’Donnell. Without Thurston the
Cowboys are really going to struggle to create try scoring opportunities
against a Newcastle side who are about ready to really cut loose in
front of their loyal home fans who have endured some heartbreaking
losses this season, none more so that the amazing loss to the Panthers
two weeks ago where they gave up an 18 point lead to lose in the final
minute. The Knights welcome Kirt Gidley into the side for the first time
this season whose presence will be huge and the Halves pairing of Dureau
and Mullen have shown they’re a force to be reckoned with on attack and
I’m confident we’re going to see much more from them here with a bit of
the pressure taken off them from by Gidley. The desire is there for the
Knights and they have a no nonsense forward pack who are capable of
causing real damage, add to this the mix of experience throughout the
side and you’ve got a very dangerous side. Like a number of other sides
this week it’s approaching D-Day for the Knights and it’s fortunate
timing to get a home game against what will be an uncertain Cowboys side
given the loss of Thurston. The Bookies have given the visiting Cowboys
a good point start but the Knights will cover it. Pick – 3 units on
Knights -10.5 or better point start (BEST BET)
Storm -6.5 v Sea Eagles
2 at 2.02
-2
The Storm suffered their first loss of 2010 last
weekend to the Titans but still looked every bit the premiership
favourites in doing so, only coming undone late in the match by some
brilliant play from the Queenslanders, there opposition here, the Sea
Eagles, come into this match off the back of probably their best
performance of the season in comprehensively beating Cronulla, this is a
much more daunting prospect though. The young Sea Eagles Halves of Foran
and Hodkinson have been steering the Manly offence with great maturity
and with the brilliant early season form Jamie Lyon is in the points
have kept coming, they have had a couple of light games of late though
and they will find this Storm defence, at the fortress of Olympic Park,
difficult to penetrate whilst the Sea Eagles defence will face their
toughest test to date against the high energy offence led as always by
Cameron Smith and Cooper Cronk, surrounded by the brilliant in the
backline of Slater and Inglis, amongst others. The loss last week will
have given the Storm an extra spring in their step at training this week
and Bellamy will have his side well and truly up for this match. The Sea
Eagles do have a formidable forward pack but they should be contained by
the tight and consistent Storm defence. The Bookies have rightfully
installed the home side as the firm favourites here and whilst the line
is quite large I am confident they'll cover it. Pick – 2 units on Storm
-7.5 or better point start
NRL ROUND FIVE
Roosters to bt Panthers
2 at 2.15
-2
The Panthers pulled one out of the hat on
Monday night with their comeback win over the Knights whilst the
Roosters won their third match of the season in demolishing the woeful
Broncos. There is just so much to like about this Roosters side who have
clocked up some very big totals in their three wins and with the
exception of the loss to the Bulldogs they have looked the pick of all
the teams each round. They not only have a very physical and mobile
forward pack capable of matching it with the best in the competition but
they've also got three key playmakers in Anasta, Pearce and Carney who
are all capable of ripping any side apart on their day, add to this the
fact their two Kiwis - Perrett and Kenny-Dowall are in the best form of
their careers plus the safe and experienced Minichiello out wide then
you've got a recipe for success. Roosters coach Brian Smith is only too
aware of the perils of any lowering of attitude and intensity by his
side (Bulldogs, need I say more?) and will have them up for this clash,
the Panthers on the other hand are not destined for top eight honours in
2010 and will struggle to compete offensively here. The Roosters have
given the Bookies some real headaches so far this season and with the
underdog tag here they're very good value. Pick - 2 units on Roosters to
win
Bulldogs -8.0 v Warriors
4 at 1.92
-4
The highly favoured Dogs were well
below par on Monday night in being thrashed by the Rabbitohs and will
have worked very hard all week on getting things back on track,
particularly their offense which was out of sorts and ineffective whilst
the Warriors on the other hand put in a performance I feel will be a
reflection of things to come in 2010 in losing to the Sea Eagles and
barely firing a shot. The Warriors have suffered some heavy personnel
losses early in the season and it really showed last week with their
main attacking weapon Manu Vatuvai out for a few more weeks, joining him
on the sidelines for this match is Price, Mannering and Luck, four
players they could really do with here. The Dogs are going to be well
and truly up for this clash, they are sitting near the bottom of the
points table and are a much better side than that, look for a brutal
onslaught from their forwards who will have it all over the Warriors
here, the pace will blow the Warriors away and Ennis will make easy
yards all day around the ruck, Kimmorley and Roberts will create plenty
and the finishing of Goodwin and Morris will ensure the points keep
ticking up for the home side. Short and sweet, the Warriors simply do
not have the personnel to compete here against a very fired up and
determined Dogs side, it's going to get ugly for the visiting Kiwi side
as they lose by plenty! Pick - 4 units on Bulldogs -8.0 point start
(BEST BET)
Eels -8.5 v Raiders
3 at 1.92
-3
Prior to the start of this season the Eels
were billed as one of the favourites to take the title in 2010, they are
now facing a mini crisis having only won 1 of their first 4 matches, and
to add salt to the wounds their latest loss came against the Sharks who
were on a 13 match losing streak, something has to give here though as
pressure is mounting on Daniel Anderson and his star studded side. Their
opposition here, the Raiders, are themselves coming off a loss to the
Tigers, a match in which they gave up a considerable lead which would
have taken its toll psychologically. The Eels certainly have the fire
power to cause this Raiders side some real damage and I expect some of
the older heads in Hindmarsh, Moimoi, Cayless and Smith will lead from
the front and cement a base from which the halves can work their magic,
add to this the class of Hayne at the back and his influence in open
space and I believe we'll see a return to the attacking machine that got
this Eels side to the Grand Final last year. It seems to be more of an
attitude and confidence issue with the Eels, nothing some mid week soul
searching won't fix. This is a good match for the Eels to resurrect
their season as the Raiders have a very poor record away from Canberra
and generally leak plenty of points on the road. The Bookies rightfully
have the Eels as favourites but the line is a little too skinny and the
slippery Eels will cover it with ease. Pick - 3 units on Eels -8.5 point
start
NRL ROUND FOUR
Roosters -8.5 v Broncos
3 at 1.99
+2.97
The Roosters great start to the season came
well and truly unstuck last week when they were humiliated by the
Bulldogs in what was one of their worst performances of recent memory,
even surpassing some of last seasons shockers, their opposition here,
the Broncos, were not much better though in being thrashed by the
Warriors, losing Israel Folau to injury in the process. The difference
between these two sides is personnel, the Roosters have a side which is
more than capable of a dramatic turnaround this week, especially given
the class and determination they showed in the first two rounds of 2010,
the Broncos on the other hand have not turned any heads so far this
season and will not have the artillery required here on attack to really
ask too many questions of what will be a fired up Roosters defensive
line. Look for a return to the new and improved Roosters game that we
saw in the first two weeks and for the Broncos to continue their
downward spiral as they cop another hefty loss. Pick - 3 units on
Roosters -8.5 point start
Sharks +12.5 v Eels
3 at 1.95
+2.85
The Sharks have broken their club
record of most consecutive losses (13) following their defeat to Souths
last week whilst their opposition here, the Eels, also go into this
match fresh off a loss having gone down to the Tigers last week. The
Bookies have rightfully installed the Eels as hot favourites here but I
do see a glimmer of hope for the home side who are bolstered with the
addition of Tim Smith to the playing ranks at Halfback and I expect he
will bring that much needed spark to the Sharks offence, working well
alongside Barrett. I like the Sharks to get within the spread on offer
from the Bookies, their forward pack has a good look to it and are very
capable of putting in a big effort here and whilst Smith has lacked
recent first grade match practice there's no denying his class and I
expect he'll be up for this match. This will be closer than most expect
and there's money to be made in the point start option to the Sharks as
they throw everything into avoiding their 14th straight loss. Pick – 3
units on Sharks +12.5 point start (BEST BET)
Knights -2.5 v Panthers
3 at 1.92
-3
The Knights were always going to be on a
hiding to nothing last week away from home and up against a very fired
up Manly side choc full of class, this week though is a much more
palatable prospect taking on the Panthers, who themselves are coming off
a loss to the Storm, back in front of their loyal fans at Energy
Australia Stadium. The Knights offense will find the going a little
easier this week and I expect a big influence from Mullen and Dureau in
the halves, they both possess a very dangerous kicking game which was
limited last week due to a lack of field position. One thing the Knights
do not lack is passion and nothing brings this out of them more than
their home fans, I believe we'll see a measured mix of skill and passion
here as the Knights defence fires up and the offense gets going. The
Bookies have put out a narrow line here and I'm happy to recommend
getting on the Knights to cover it. Pick - 3 units on Knights -2.5 point
start
NRL ROUND THREE
Sea Eagles -3.5 v Knights
3.5 at 1.91
+3.18
It was fantastic to see the passion
and anger Dessy Hasler expressed after the Sea Eagles loss to the Eels
on Sunday, their second match in a row where they've given up a double
digit lead in the second half and it's fair to say they will have had a
week of intense training and talks to address just what's going wrong.
Their opposition here, the Knights, put in another gutsy effort last
week but narrowly went down to the Storm; they will still be without
their captain and chief play maker Kurt Gidley for this clash and I'm
dubious as to how effective their offense will prove against what will
be a very fired up Sea Eagles defensive line who, after two weeks of
very costly late meltdowns, will defend any lead they get as if their
lives depended on it. The Sea Eagles forwards will have the upper hand
here with a more experienced pack capable of greater penetration and
will create plenty of opportunities out wide for the likes of Williams,
Matai and Lyon to finish. It's a surprisingly narrow line here from the
Bookies and I expect the fired up Sea Eagles to cover it easily. 3.5 units on Manly -3.5 point start
(BEST BET)
Bulldogs to bt Roosters
2.5 at 2.00
+2.5
The Dogs put in yet another disappointing
effort last week in getting hammered by the very impressive Dragons
whilst the Roosters continued where they left off against Souths and
comprehensively beat the Tigers, this match won't offer the same freedom
of movement they enjoyed against the weak Tiger defencive line though
and I expect the Dogs to have addressed their own defence and make life
very difficult for the Roosters attack. The 2010 version of the Roosters
is certainly much improved from last year and are proving to be very
dangerous on attack, this will be their toughest challenge yet though,
against a desperate Dogs side searching for their first win of the
season, who for the most part are fielding a very similar side to that
which turned heads last season in narrowly missing out on the minor
premiership. The Dogs forward pack has been unusually quiet the past two
weeks and will be an area in which they see a potential strength they
hold over the Roosters, whilst Kimmorley and Roberts have yet to fire
any real shots and spark this dangerous back line like they did in 2010,
one gets the feeling though it's just a matter of time before that
happens. It goes without saying that the Dogs defence must target
Carney, Anasta and Pierce and for the attack from the big Dogs forwards
to be aimed as much as possible at these players to wear them down and
limit their influence in the game. Dogs coach Kevin Moore is very shrewd
and he will have a plan in place here and what better way to forget
about the last two losses than to beat one of their fiercest Sydney
rivals. Dogs to win. 2.5 units on Bulldogs to win
NRL ROUND TWO
Bulldogs +5.5 v Dragons
2 at 1.91
-2
Pathetic, gutless and spineless.....no I'm
not talking about the Bulldogs performance last week but about my own
poor tipping effort which leaves me with plenty of early ground to make
up. My opening pick of this round is to back one of the sides that
caused me so much pain last week - the Bulldogs, who will be cursing
themselves for putting in such a shocker against the Knights and will
have no doubt had a very tough week of training as they prepare for this
daunting task against a Dragons side fresh off a good win over the Eels.
The Dogs have lost Ennis for this clash but have a very good replacement
in Blake Green whilst the Dragons are still without Cooper and have lost
Fien for the season. The Dogs will remember being robbed in the early
rounds last year against the Dragons after a very controversial last
minute try and I would not be surprised at all if this game is again
decided in the dying minutes after a very even and entertaining clash. I
expect much more from Kimmorley and Roberts in the Halves for the Dogs,
they looked sluggish and uninspiring against the Knights and will have
worked hard this week. Expect a fired up Dogs side to at the very least
get within the +5.5 point start on offer. Pick - 2 units on Dogs +5.5
point start
Cowboys -3.0 v Penrith
3 at 1.91
+2.73
The Cowboys will at least take some
positives away from their defeat to Brisbane last week, particularly
their spirited fightback in the second half which gave us all a glimpse
of the sides offensive capabilities, the Panthers on the other hand will
have taken nothing but positives away from their demolition of Canberra,
a side many are tipping to be 2010 wooden spooners. I like the Cowboys
here to win and cover the tight line, they are a very different side at
home and will be buoyed by a large crowd behind them and with arguably
the best halfback in the world at your disposal who himself is
surrounded by a number of class players I am more than confident to jump
on them here as I feel the Bookies have made more of the Panthers win
last week than perhaps they should have, given the Raiders line-up and
very poor record away from Canberra. There are a number of match-ups
that will be great to view but the real difference between these sides
is Thurston and on home turf he's going to weave his magic and will be
the big difference between these two sides. Pick - 3 units on Cowboys
-3.0 point start (BEST BET)
Roosters to bt Tigers
2 at 2.25
+2.5
I was not surprised to see the Roosters put
in such a great effort last week in hammering the Bunnies, I am
surprised though following that win that they're the under dogs for this
match, against a Tigers side fresh off a very hard fought win over
Manly. The Roosters have a good look to them this year and have
obviously responded immediately to the coaching style of Brian Smith.
The Chooks forward pack had it over the much lauded Bunnies forwards and
the halves pairing of Anasta and Pierce really looked dangerous,
providing opportunities across the park whilst Todd Carney is a
revelation at Fullback and having that extra play making option around
the rucks is invaluable. The Bookies are still hungover from last years
pathetic Chooks season and are hesitant to show faith in them this early
on but this is a very different side in 2010 with a very different
attitude and deserve favouritism here....but we won't complain as it
just means good profits for all you hard working punters!! Pick - 2
units on Roosters to win
NRL ROUND ONE
Eels -3.5 v Dragons
3 at 1.91
-3
The start of the best competition in sport is finally with us and this
is a great match to get us underway. Unfortunately for the Dragons their
preparation has been hindered with a few injuries amongst the squad with
Cooper and Hornby looking like non starters, regardless of whether they
take the field though I'm still siding with the Eels here as their squad
is even stronger than that which made it to the Grand Final last year
with the addition of Tahu, Poore and Shackleton and they will be very
tough to beat, particularly in front of their home fans. It's always
tough to make first round predictions but I'm very confident with this
one as the Eels backline will dominate, lead by Mortimer and Robson who
had a sensational pairing in the halves for the Eels last year and I
expect will pick up here where they left off in 2009. The Eels also have
a stronger looking bench and as the game progresses this will take it's
toll on the visitors. The Dragons will find it tougher in 2010 and this
will be a good early yardstick for both these sides seasons. Pick - 3
units on Eels -3.5 point start (BEST BET)
Bulldogs 13+ v Knights
2 at 2.00
-2
After an off season to forget for the Knights, one that cost them two of
their young stars and not too mention the morale sapping that's gone
along with this, the last thing they needed was to be without their best
player and captain Kurt Gidley for Round 1, but that's what they have.
No beating around the bush here, the Dogs have a very strong forward
pack that really stood up last year in laying the platform for the
surprisingly good halves partnership of Noddy and Roberts to work their
magic. The Knights are on the back foot going into this opening round
and will struggle offensively against a strong Dogs defensive line,
whilst I expect the Dogs will dominate all stats and put on a big win
for their home fans. Pick - 2 units on Bulldogs 13+
Titans 13+ v Warriors
3 at 2.25
-3
I'm very surprised the Titans aren't paying a single digit figure to win
the title this year given the strength and experience they are boasting
in nearly every position, none more so than in the halves pairing of
Bird and Prince who will be a very formidable base from which this
offensive juggernaut can launch. I really like this Titans side of 2010
and they must be licking their lips as they line up against what is a
very weak looking Warriors side who are lacking experience (Price,
Mannering and Lillyman all out of this match), lacking any quality
leadership and lacking any sort of formidable firepower on attack. I
like that this game is being played in round 1 because if it was round 4
the odds on the Titans would be much shorter as I expect these two sides
to go in opposite directions in 2010. The Titans have so much offensive
firepower it is scarey and the Warriors don't stand a chance, expecially
not as the Titans look to restore the 'fortress' tag for Skilled Park in
2010......this is going to be a very very long afternoon for the
Woe-rriors. Pick - 3 units on Titans 13+
2010 BRITISH OPEN
Tiger Woods 4.50
Lee Westwood 13.00
Phil Mickelson 15.00
P Harrington 17.00
Rory Mcilroy 17.00
Ernie Els 21.00
Ian Poulter 31.00
Adam Scott 34.00
Anthony Kim 34.00
Paul Casey 34.00
Martin Kaymer 34.00
Sergio Garcia 41.00
Jim Furyk 41.00
Geoff Ogilvy 41.00
Luke Donald 41.00
Retief Goosen 41.00
Hunter Mahan 41.00
Steve Stricker 41.00
Ross Fisher 41.00
G Mcdowell 41.00
+1.84
-4
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