NRL PREVIEWS & PLAYS
...with OTP's National Rugby League expert
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NRL GRAND FINAL
Melbourne -4.0 vs Parramatta
4 at 1.92
+3.68
This has all the makings of an
absolutely brilliant grand final with both sides peaking perfectly for
this match and both sides at full strength (Cayless was included in Eels
side at time of writing). The surge of the Eels has been simply
unstoppable, that is until now, as I feel the only side who've been
capable of halting their charge for the premiership is the Storm who are
as battle-hardened as they come and equipped both offensively and
defensively to handle what the Eels throw at them. Of these two sides
it's the Storm who are the more clinical in their play and slightly edge
the Eels in terms of flare and added to this the majority of the Strom
side can no doubt still taste the bitter disappointment that was last
years grand final, in which they were thrashed by Manly, and will be
quietly confident of putting that match to rest here. The Eels have the
Hayne factor but the Storm will be up for what he throws their way, the
Storm on the other hand have the weight of experience in the Halves with
Cronk and Finch in season best form and again we'll see some big metres
gained from the Storm around the ruck (particularly from Smith who will
relish this match after missing last years final) which will create the
attacking momentum and keep the Eels on their heels, whilst defensively
the Storm are the strongest unit the Eels will have played of late and
in this match they won't have the missed tackles and slower line speed
they've enjoyed from recent opposition. The Eels story to date has been
somewhat of a fairytale but there'll be no glass slipper for them here
as the Storm take out the grand final, covering the narrow margin in the
process. Pick – 4 units on Storm -4.0 point start
(BEST BET)
NRL FINALS WEEK THREE
Parramatta to bt Bulldogs
2 at 1.92
+1.84
The Eels look simply unstoppable and the only team who does have a
chance to halt their surge for the title is Melbourne, who I expect them
to play in the Grand Final next week. The Dogs have had a great season
but their lead up to this very important match has been soft, with a
week off last week and a win over the Knights the week before, whereas
the Eels have hammered both the Titans and the minor premier Dragons in
the last two weeks, they've also got a fully fit squad and players that
have peaked at the perfect time in the season. The Dogs will be solid
here and, as they have all year, do the basics very well, unfortunately
for them though it'll take more than this to beat the Eels, who
themselves are doing the basics extremely well but are also adding the
x-factor to each display, with a forward pack whose work rate is second
to none and a backline choc-full of attacking options. I'm not convinced
Kimmorley will be anywhere near his best after a few weeks off and even
though Roberts has come on strong in 2009 this is a different stage and
will require another step up in play, and I'm not sure he's got that in
him just yet in his career, whereas the Eels have so many options
there's not one player that has such an attacking burden resting on
them. The Eels have won 5 of their last 6 against the Dogs and will
share equal support amongst the near capacity crowd at ANZ Stadium,
it'll be the blue and golds who are cheering loudest come the final
whistle though. Pick – 2 units on Eels to win
Melbourne -8.5 vs Brisbane
3 at 1.94
+2.82
As I've said above the only team capable of stopping the Storm are the
Eels, which obviously means I'm siding heavily on the Storm to take this
match out comfortably. Credit to the Broncos for their last couple of
wins over the Titans and Dragons where they, particularly last week over
the Dragons, essentially out-muscled and beat the opposition forward
pack into submission, which spearheaded the rest of the side into almost
complete dominance, they will certainly not have that same dominance
this week though as the Storm will, I expect, reverse the tables on them
and it will be the Broncos who struggle to cope with the intensity and
physicality of the match. The Broncos are going to struggle without
Wallace's kicking game and his absence will just add to the pressure on
Lockyer, who the Storm will be targeting all match. Short and sweet
here, the Storm own the Broncos, particularly in Melbourne, and have too
many big game players brimming with experience in the heat of finals
footy. This is going to be a very comfortable win to the home side who
have the premiership within their grasp yet again. Pick – 3 units on
Storm -8.5 point start (BEST BET)
NRL FINALS WEEK TWO
Dragons to beat Brisbane
3 at 1.88
-3
What a contrasting fortnight it's
been for the Minor Premiers the Dragons having thumped the Eels 37-0
then losing to them by 13 points the following week in a complete
turnaround which leads them this week to Brisbane in a sudden death
match….and the script could not have been written any better really with
coaches Bennett facing off against the Henjak. The Dragons were well
short of their best last week against the Eels and will turn things
around here in style, their forwards were far from the dominant force
they've been all year; what will worry the Broncos is the fact that last
time the Dragons suffered a shock defeat was against Souths a month ago
and they bounced back hard the following week to hammer the Eels in that
37-0 rout, they'll be buoyed by the impressive record they have in
Brisbane also having won their last 5 matches played at Suncorp Stadium
and 8 of their last 9 overall against the Broncos. The Broncos come into
this following their 40-32 victory over Gold Coast, the fact they
conceded 32 points is a worry as is the fact that the Titans played
below their best so any confidence they get out of that match is
somewhat false. The Broncos have some real stars within their side but
the Dragons are simply unstoppable as a combined unit and when the
juggernaut starts to roll, as I have no doubt it will here, they operate
with a near impenetrable defence and a clinical attack that this Broncos
side won't be able to withhold. Even though they've been winning I'm not
getting carried away with this Broncos side and I expect the Dragons
master coach Wayne Bennett to add another chapter to his triumphs at
this ground, he lead the visiting Kiwis over the Kangaroos last year and
he'll be relishing this match-up. Quite simply the Dragons are a better
side and won’t give the Broncos any of the offensive freedom they
enjoyed against the Raiders and Titans over the last fortnight, whilst
the pace of the match from the Dragons will have the home side
back-pedalling all day. Pick – 3 units on Dragons to win (BEST BET)
Gold Coast +8.0 vs Parramatta
2 at 1.96
-2
I've not liked the direction the Titans
have headed in over the last fortnight, having put in two sub-par
performances in losing to both Manly and Brisbane, conceding a combined
78 points in the process, the realities of what they now face is in
flashing neon lights though and I believe we'll see a return to the
attitude and intensity here that saw them finish the season third on the
table. The Eels have showed us both sides of their personality in the
last fortnight and I've seen it time and again in league after teams
have scaled their Everest one week they struggle to reach the same
heights the next week so the issue facing Daniel Anderson is one of
motivating his side to the same intensity they showed in downing the
Dragons last week, whilst the motivation for the Titans has never been
stronger and their intensity should reflect the fact they now face their
own Everest here. I've sounded a little like a broken record the last
few weeks in describing the numerous strengths this Titans side have –
they’re brimming with experience and have a forward pack that is as
strong, if not stronger, than any in the competition, yet have not risen
to the heights recently that I have expected from them - this week again
though that broken record is still playing and I'm backing them to throw
everything into the ring here, look for the older masters of Prince,
Bailey, Rogers, Campbell, and co to really step up and lead this side in
a very competitive performance. The result here is really in the balance
and the Bookmakers have jumped on the Eels ship, which is good for us as
I recommend getting on the generous point start on offer to the
visitors. Pick – 2 units on Gold Coast +10.5 point start.
NRL FINALS WEEK ONE
Melbourne to bt Manly
3 at 1.95
+2.85
I'm very pleased to see the Bookies be sucked in by Manly's win last
week over a Titans side that played their worst match of the season and
made Manly look back to their premiership winning best and whilst their
defence may be close to that level their attack is not, with or without
Lyon. The Storm know what to expect here and have had a year to reflect
on the grand final humiliation they suffered in 2008 and this match,
more so than any other they've played in 2009, they will show all their
cards and I expect them to come up with a Royal Flush - they have more
class on attack in key positions than the Sea Eagles and I expect
Bellamy to have worked on a game plan to counter the rush defence of the
visitors. The Bookies have predictably gone for a fairly even market
here….I strongly recommend making them pay - get on the Storm to win!!
Pick – 3 units on Storm to win (BEST BET)
Gold Coast to bt Brisbane
2 at 2.65
-2
The Titans were terrible last week in
losing heavily to the Sea Eagles, it was a very timely wake-up call that
this side is definitely good enough to respond to especially given
they're back on home turf and with a couple of regulars returning in
Meyers and Delaney. Whilst you can't argue with the Broncos excellent
record in making the play-offs over the years their actual record once
they're there is not flash at all and I'm afraid it's about to get even
worse. The Titans have playmakers all across the field and whilst they
were disappointing against Manly they have the depth of experience and
talent to turn things around here in front of their home fans that have
become accustomed to watching the Titans win at Skilled Park. The
Broncos have shown a real lack of consistency in 2009 and looked odds on
to miss the play-offs at one stage whilst the Titans have been a more
dominant force and have made this trip to Skilled Park one of the
toughest away journeys for visiting sides in the competition. Prince
will turn things around this week for the Titans whose mobile pack will
run the Broncos ragged with Friend, Campbell and co eating up some big
yardage around the fringes. The Bookies have the Broncos as favourites
here which means good value in backing the Titans. Pick – 2 units on
Titans to win
Bulldogs -5.5 vs Newcastle
3 at 1.92
+2.76
The Tigers did not do the Knights any
favours last week in thrashing the Bulldogs as I've no doubt it was the
slap in the face the Dogs needed going into this clash as each and every
player (especially Ennis and Roberts) lifts their accountability and
performance to accommodate the absence of Kimmorley and we'll see a very
different Dogs side take the field this week. The Dogs will return to
the basics of punishing defence that we've seen from them for most of
the season and a fast paced offence that will win the field position
stakes. Short and sweet here, just like the Dragons last week I expect
the Dogs to remind us all just how good they are with a bruising and
clinical win here, covering the point start. Pick – 3 units on Bulldogs
-5.5 point start
St George-Illa. vs Parramatta
NO PLAY
The momentum the Eels had built up in the
weeks preceding last weeks match against the Dragons was all but
forgotten following their 37-0 demolition and with just one week to dust
themselves off before this replay I just can't see a change in the
result, although expect a closer match. The Dragons were just too
clinical in everything they did last week with a return to the game plan
and the form they've shown for most of the season that had many
believing they couldn't be beaten. In front of another sell-out crowd
the Dragons will again lift to the same intensity they showed on Friday
night; the Eels will be lifted by the return of Hindmarsh to the side
but the freight train that was their rush to the play-offs has come to a
sudden halt and it’s hard to know if they can turn things around. The
line is about right here and there’s better value elsewhere. Pick – no
play
NRL ROUND TWENTY-SIX
Wests Tigers +6.5 v Bulldogs
2 at 1.90
+1.8
This match kicks off one of the more difficult rounds for punters in the
NRL season where the finals spots are all but decided (with the
exception of the Knights/Panthers match) the temperament and attitude of
each side can be hard to judge, with players minds either on next weeks
finals or on Mad Monday. The Tigers are one side I'm confident will
approach this week with the same attitude and intensity as if they were
still alive in season 2009, their injury hit line-up were run down last
week by the Titans but put in a gallant effort and they'll be even
stronger here back home and with a more healthy line-up. The Dogs are
going to really miss the injured Kimmorley as he is the heart and soul
of this side, not only in the way he guides the offence but with the
leadership and overall tenacity he brings to the side, constantly
lifting and challenging them to greater heights. The Bookies have given
the Tigers a generous point start here and I'm happy to recommend
getting on it as the Dogs won't have the same cohesion on attack without
their inspirational Halfback whilst the Tigers have plenty of dangerous
options on attack. Pick – 2 units on Tigers +6.5 point start
Dragons v Eels
NO PLAY
What a great match this promises to be as the Dragons search for answers
before the finals to their rapid decline and the Eels look to continue
their seemingly unstoppable surge. It is very tempting here to recommend
backing the Eels for yet another win here given how well they're playing
but something tells me the Dragons will be back to their best here,
anything short of which will see them going into the finals with four
straight losses to their name and you'd be a very brave punter to back
them to win the Premiership from there. We know just how good this
Dragons side is and their problem at the moment is mental, they've no
better person to turn them around though than Wayne Bennett who will
have used his years and years of experience this week and as a result I
expect every Dragons player will lift their game from last weeks
embarrassing loss to Souths. Not a good match for punters, expect to see
a rejuvenated Dragons side but it's questionable whether the Eels can be
stopped by anyone at the moment, we'll see. Pick – no play
Storm -8.0 v Warriors
3 at 1.90
+2.7
The last two matches between these sides in Auckland have been shared
one win a piece and have yielded a combined points total of 20 - which
is absolutely staggering! There will be a large home crowd here to
farewell the Little General, unfortunately for the Warriors though
there's a gulf of talent between them and this Storm side who go into
this fresh off a very big win over the Roosters and with their offence
looking back to its devastating best following the return of Inglis to
the side. The Warriors are still without Steve Price for this match,
with Ropati and their main attacking weapon - Manu Vatuvai also added to
the injury list here. Short and sweet, the Warriors will struggle to
break through the Storm defence as the visitors approach this match like
it's the finals and as the home side become more and more frustrated
there’ll be plenty of turnover ball which the Storm will take full
advantage of and will easily cover the line on offer from the Bookies.
Pick – 3 units on Storm -8.0 point start
Titans to bt Sea Eagles
1 at 3.75
-1
Titans +10.5 v Sea Eagles
3 at 1.91
-3
The Titans will rate themselves a very good chance of beating Manly
here, especially following the Sea Eagles lucky escape last week against
a 12-man Sharks side who they were expected to thrash. Manly are without
Jamie Lyon and Jason King here whilst the Titans have named a full
strength side that I expect will do very well on this trip to Sydney as
they cap an impressive regular season off with another strong showing.
The Titans know that in order to stamp themselves as serious title
contenders they need to win a big game like this in Sydney and what
better dress rehearsal than to beat Manly at Broookvale. There is a lot
to like about this Titans side who are stacked with more playmakers and
potency across the park than any other side in the competition which is
all capped off nicely with the depth of experience throughout the squad.
Short and sweet, I expect a better performance from Manly but I've not
been overly impressed with Orfords form, and without Lyon there to ease
some of the offensive burden they will struggle. The Titans have been
given a very generous point start from the Bookies and I recommend
getting on it! Pick – 3 units on Titans +10.5 point start (BEST BET)
and
1 unit on Titans to win
Sharks v Rabbitohs
NO PLAY
Both these sides performed well above expectations last week with the
Sharks very nearly upsetting Manly (doing so with 12 men for most of the
match following the Douglas send-off) and Souths shocking everyone in
hammering the Dragons. The Bookies can't split these sides and neither
can I, the Bunnies have performed better in 2009 than the Sharks and do
have the better side on paper that lacks nothing in offensive firepower
but they've lacked any real consistency and who knows if they can put in
back-to-back blinders....this match is the last in the NRL for Wing and
Hughes, two players who deserve a big send-off. This is not a forum for
playing guessing games and I highly recommend keeping your wallet firmly
tucked away here as this result could go either way. Pick – no play
Roosters v Cowboys
NO PLAY
The Roosters have a very commanding record over the Cowboys, especially
in Sydney where they've won 8 of their last 9 clashes, but with the way
they've played in 2009 and with further off-field drama this week around
Sa, who knows if they can drag themselves off the carpet and put in one
last ditch effort to avoid the Wooden Spoon and send their captain
Fitzgibbon off in his last game in the NRL in style. I like that
Minichiello is finally back at fullback but there is just too much not
to like about the Roosters this season, this is their best shot at a win
for some time though up against a Cowboys side who're hit with injuries
to Bowen, Payne and Rovelli (although Burns in for Rovelli at five-eight
is actually a good thing) and who have struggled away from Townsville
this year. Again there are better options this round as the result here
is in the balance, I'm tempted to back the Roosters to send Freddy
Fittler and Fitzy off in style but they've burnt me too often in 2009
and shown no heart and even less spine. Pick – no play
Knights v Panthers
NO PLAY
Both these sides have their season on the line here with the winner
going through to the Finals and the loser confined to 9th place. The
Knights have lost Rogers at five-eight but have good cover in Dureau,
whilst the Panthers have named close to their strongest side, the big
factor in this match is the fact it's being played in Newcastle in front
of what will no doubt be a full house, which will definitely lift the
Knights. Both these sides were disappointing last week, the Panthers
being thrashed by the Eels and the Knights easily beaten by the Raiders
so neither approach this with any real momentum. The Bookies have the
line about right here and while the Panthers look very good on paper
I've got a question mark as to whether they can hold out this Knights
attack who'll be lead well by Mullen, DeGois and Dureau who will play
the match at a very hectic pace which could catch the big Panthers
forwards going backwards all day. Again there's better value elsewhere.
Pick – no play
Broncos 13+ v Raiders
2 at 1.99
-2
This is a great opportunity for the Broncos to go some way to wiping the
memories of Round 21 where they were beaten 56-0 by the Raiders in
Canberra; the Raiders have travelled poorly in 2009 and are up against a
Broncos side that’s playing much much better since that embarrassing
affair. Short and sweet - the Bookies have the Broncos as firm
favourites with a big line that I expect them to cover with ease; there
will be a number of players itching to exert revenge here and will do so
in style. The Raiders have conceded plenty of tries away from home and
won't be able to keep out the rejuvinated Broncos who are finally
starting to play up to the level they promise on paper. The Broncos will
dominate every aspect of this match and, in front of a large home crowd,
will enter the finals on a big high. Pick – 2 units on Broncos 13+
NRL ROUND TWENTY-FIVE
Broncos -6.5 v Cowboys
2 at 1.95
-2
As their lead slipped away last week
against the Knights so did (realistically) the Cowboys season and they
could struggle a little for motivation here against a Broncos side
who're all of a sudden looking very sharp and have the added bonus of
welcoming back superstar Israel Folau into the Centres for this match
who will add another dimension to their attack. The Broncos have won
their last four in a row against the Cowboys, including two played in
Townsville, and have all the confidence, momentum and motivation going
into this clash and should come away with the win here. We could see a
repeat of the defensive effort that held the Dragons to just 2 points
last week and we should see no shortage of points from the visitors who
have game-breakers all over the park, none more so than Folau whose
prolific ability to draw in defenders and win the aerial battle in
gathering up Lockyer's cross field kicks will hurt the Cowboys. Pick – 2
units on Broncos -6.5 point start
Eels -7.5 v Panthers
2 at 1.92
+1.84
The last time these two sides met was in
Round 17 and it was a try-fest won eventually by the Panthers following
some late heroics, given how the Eels are playing however there's no way
they'll concede anywhere near that number of tries again here, but I
would rate them a good chance of repeating their offensive effort from
that match. Just when you thought Hayne couldn't get any better he
pulled out a performance last week against the Tigers that was
jaw-dropping and I expect this week he'll continue where he left off.
Short and sweet for this match, the result is crucial for both sides but
the Eels are a side that's riding the crest of a wave and will win this
match easily; the confidence, accuracy and intensity of the Eels will
make them a very dangerous proposition for any side who has the
misfortune of facing them in the finals. Pick – 2 units on Eels -8.5 or
better point start
Titans v Wests Tigers
NO PLAY
The Tigers go into this match with a
number of players either out injured or who are carrying injuries which
does not bode well for their chances of making the finals, with anything
short of a win here almost certainly ending their chances; the Titans on
the other hand have secured their finals birth and will hope to cement
their top four spot with a good win here. The Titans are very tough to
beat at Skilled Park and are rightfully favourites against the injury
plagued Tigers, I'm not about to write off the visitors here though as
Tim Sheens is a very canny coach and will have his side (regardless of
who takes the field) primed and ready to throw everything at the Titans,
whether that's enough though will remain to be seen. Pick – no play
Dragons -20.0 v Rabbitohs
2 at 1.92
-2
The Dragons will get things back on track
here against a Bunnies side they’ve beaten in 11 of their last 12
encounters and who've been hit hard with injuries to key players. The
Dragons will have been working hard all week to rediscover the winning
form that propelled them to clear premiership favourites and I believe
this match is the perfect platform for that, they'll offer way too much
on attack, won't offer anything cheap on defence and will win every
aspect of this match. Short and sweet - this is going to get ugly for
the injury hit Bunnies. The Bookies have given the Bunnies a large
points start but the Dragons won’t take long to haul that in and will
cover with ease. Pick – 2 units on Dragons -20.0 point start
Storm -20.0 v Roosters
3 at 1.90
+2.7
Like the Dragons match this is a
perfect platform for the Strom to rediscover their top form and post a
huge morale boosting victory over the cellar dwelling Roosters. Bellamy
has lost patience with his side and they'll have had a week of training
they'd rather forget. The Roosters total lack of structure and accuracy
on attack is not pretty to watch and they'll be lucky to get into double
digits here whilst I expect the Storm to spend most of the game camped
on the Roosters line and whilst their offence has not set the world on
fire recently their are plenty of ways through this Roosters defensive
line who continue to give up big totals. This is going all the way of
the Storm who have the added bonus of Inglis returning and it’s going to
be a bath. Pick – 3 units on Storm -20.0 point start
(BEST BET)
Sea Eagles -23.5 v Sharks
2 at 1.91
-2
The Sea Eagles finally welcome back Brett
Stewart at Fullback for this match and given his uncanny try-scoring
abilities and how they lift to new levels with him in the side he may
have just turned what was going to be a big win to Manly into a
massacre. The line on offer from the Bookies here (+23.5 to Cronulla) is
outrageous and I can't remember a bigger one but it is every bit
justified given the Sharks continued demise and Manly's steady rise of
late. I'm not going to strain a digit typing all the areas in which
Manly have superiority over the Sharks as they are more than
numerous.....the line is large but it'll probably be wiped out in the
first half alone. Pick – 2 units on Manly -23.5 point start
Bulldogs v Warriors
NO PLAY
The Warriors were impressive last week in
beating the Raiders in Auckland but head into this game without their
very influential captain Steve Price, and given their record without him
and record playing away from New Zealand it's easy to see why the
Bookies have gone for such a big line against a Bulldogs side that's
vying for the minor premiership. Even the Warriors at their
unpredictable best would struggle to match this Dogs side who welcome
back the extra firepower of Hannant and Roberts for this match. The
Bookies have the line about right here and there's better value in other
matches. Pick – no play
Raiders v Knights
NO PLAY
Just what sort of frame of mind the
Raiders are in for this match is hard to know, we saw them at their
brutal best just two weeks ago here in beating the Dragons but after a
season punctuated with inconsistency it's hard to know if they've got
one more big game left in them or not, the Knights on the other hand
have their season on the line and will lack absolutely nothing in
motivation. I am tempted to back the Knights here but it is not with any
great confidence as the Knights have a very poor record in Canberra and
the Raiders may, just may have one last big effort left in them. Pick –
no play
NRL ROUND TWENTY-FOUR
Dragons v Broncos
NO PLAY
The Dragons have owned the Broncos in recent history, having won the
last 8 encounters between the sides, they did however have a few chinks
in their armour exposed by the Raiders last week and if the Broncos
wanted a blue-print on how the beat them they'll have studied that
match. The Broncos looked back to their old self last week in thrashing
the Panthers but risk dropping out of the top eight with a loss here,
which should ensure they're well and truly up for this however it's best
not to get overly excited about their last outing until they actually
string together a few more wins over other top-eight sides. The Bookies
have the line about right here. Pick – no play
Eels -3.5 v Wests Tigers
3 at 1.93
+2.79
Both these sides enter this match in their best form of the season and
can ill afford any injury concerns as is the case with the Tigers, who
have a cloud hanging over Farah and Galloway, and with Skandalis already
ruled out it'll be a nervous wait until kick-off against a side they've
only beaten once in their last 9 matches. The Eels sit just outside the
top-eight and since their surge up the ladder started some weeks ago
they've looked unstoppable and will get the points here. Hayne is
currently by far the most outstanding player in the NRL and the Tigers
will have their hands full dealing with him, but they're far from a
one-trick show and have a number of players who have been hurting
defensive lines along with a forward pack that's got some of that old
Parramatta physicality back into it. The Tigers will struggle to hold
back the tide here and won't be able to stop the Eels surge. Pick – 3
units on Parramatta -3.5 point start
Cowboys to bt Knights
2 at 2.58
-2
The Knights gave their new coach Rick Stone the perfect start last week
as they finally got back to winning ways against the Storm, I've got a
strong feeling though things are going to be a lot tougher here against
a desperate (and fully fit) Cowboys side whose effort last week in
losing to the Bulldogs can't be faulted, they are just one or two errors
here and there off a really good performance and I saw enough to suggest
that the timing is right for this match. This forwards battle will be a
bit of an arm-wrestle whilst in the backs the Cowboys have the x-factor
in Thurston and the likes of Tonga, Bowan, Williams and Graham who are
more than capable of causing this Knights side some major headaches, and
we've seen over the past month how the Knights heads drop once they get
behind on the scoreboard. It's always likely that a team lifts in the
first match under a new coach but maintaining that level of attitude and
intensity can be tough once the hype dies down and the dust settles. I
expect the Cowboys to throw everything into this match and get the
upset. Pick - 2 units on Cowboys to win
Panthers v Rabbitohs
NO PLAY
The Bunnies slim chances of making the top eight have been dented with
key players - Wing, Crocker, Talanoa and Champion all out of this match
against the Panthers which is certainly not what they needed especially
given their poor recent history playing in Penrith. The Panthers put in
a good first half against the Broncos but fell away poorly in the
second, letting Brisbane run away with the match but I certainly do not
expect any such fall-off in intensity here, especially with memories of
last years late season capitulation still fresh. The Bookies have the
Panthers as firm favourites and I really can't argue with the line on
offer. Pick – no play
Warriors to bt Raiders
3 at 1.94
+2.82
It's hard to believe after watching the Raiders dismantle the Dragons
last week that they're not in with a show of making the finals in 2009
having been plagued by inconsistency, particularly on the road where
they've been poor. The Warriors were terrible last week against the Eels
but back home, with Price back in the side and with nothing to lose I
think we're finally about to see a very big match from them. With only a
couple of games left in Auckland in which to send the Little General out
in style I believe we'll see a Warriors side with much more urgency and
accuracy on attack; I've seen it so often from this side in the past -
when all is lost and they've copped it from every media outlet in New
Zealand they then put a band-aid over their wounded egos with a
performance that's well overdue. The Raiders record in Auckland is not
flash and it's about to get worse here. Pick – 3 units on Warriors to
win (BEST BET)
Titans v Sharks
NO PLAY
It's hard to identify a single strength currently within this Sharks
side given both their offensive and defensive deficiencies, which has
lead to the Bookies offering the biggest line of any match this season
which is very hard to argue with given they're up against a Titans side
that's got plenty of points in them. The Titans have numerous game
breakers who are all hitting their straps at the right time in the
season and anything short of a huge win here will be a surprise, however
again the line is about right from the Bookies and there's better value
in other matches this round. Pick – no play
Sea Eagles to bt Storm
2 at 1.97
+1.94
This is a great chance for the Manly side to break their hoodoo of
playing in Melbourne (they've lost 5 from 5 here) as they take on a
Storm side missing Inglis and who looked a shadow of their best last
week in going down to the Knights, whilst the Sea Eagles on the other
hand were close to their best in demolishing the Roosters. There's talk
Brett Stewart might be a late inclusion for Manly in this match which
would lift them to another level but with Robertson playing well in his
place they've got great cover if he does take another week to get back.
The Storm looked devoid of penetration against the Knights, with Cronk
and Finch really struggling to spark and I don't see a quick turnaround
in fortunes here against a very well organised Manly defensive line. The
Sea Eagles are eyeing a top four finish and to do so they must win here,
which I believe they will do. Pick – 2 units on Manly to win
Bulldogs v Roosters
NO PLAY
The Bulldogs were back to their best last week in withstanding all the
Cowboys threw at them whilst clinically accumulating points of their
own; it was a different story for the Roosters though as they recorded
yet another heavy defeat at the hands of Manly and we saw from Freddy
Fittlers demeanour in the post-match interview that he obviously just
can't wait for this season to end. The Roosters are in a battle with
Cronulla to avoid the Wooden Spoon and that, along with the passion
usually associated with Dogs/Roosters clashes, could ensure this match
is closer than the Bookies line suggests. This Roosters side has the
experience and ability on paper to compete with most sides, their
problem in 2009 though has been their attitude, intensity and execution,
and who knows whether they can drag themselves up for this match and get
within the generous point start on offer. Again the lines about right
and there's much better value in other matches this round. Pick – no
play
NRL ROUND TWENTY-THREE
Rabbitohs v Titans
NO PLAY
The Rabbitohs put in their best performance of the season last week in
beating Manly with some stunning attack and a defensive line that
handled well what the Sea Eagles threw at them; the Titans also looked
highly impressive in thrashing the Warriors in a very clinical manner,
basically starving the Warriors of the ball and forcing them to tackle
and tackle until they lay down in submission. We've got two exciting
offences here led by a number of game-breakers and it'll likely be a
high scoring match, the outcome really is in the balance though as
neither side have shown great consistency in 2009 backing up following a
good win the week before. Both sides have their own motivation here as
the Bunnies try to break into the top eight and the Titans try to cement
their top four spot. It's not a great game for the punters as this one
really could go either way. Pick – no play
Cowboys v Bulldogs
NO PLAY
The Cowboys are now facing plenty of pressure with each match as their
topsy-turvy late season form has them sitting precariously within the
top eight following last weeks loss to the Storm; the Bulldogs though
sit comfortably within the top four following a hard fought win over the
Raiders. It's been hard all season trying to predict whether this
Cowboys side will be up or down for a match, they've beaten the Bulldogs
in four out of their last five clashes and do owe the Townsville
faithful something to cheer about flowing their poor last effort here in
losing to the Panthers, but they have just not inspired enough
confidence of late to back them here. This match could really go either
way and is not a great one for the punters. Pick – no play
Sea Eagles -12.0 v Roosters
3 at 1.93
+2.79
Both these sides come into this fresh off a loss, it'll be Manly though
who are hurting badly given they're not as accustomed to defeat as this
Roosters side has become in 2009. The Manly defence will be a lot
tougher this week and will find the going a lot easier against this
Roosters offence that has few game-breakers and offer little in terms of
any formidable attacking structure. Experience weighs heavily in favour
of Manly and I expect it to shine through here after a few of the senior
players had a below par game last week and a good dressing down from
Hassler, and I expect Lyon to step up here and lift some of the
attacking burden from Orford. Both sides have a few injury concerns but
Manly have the depth to cover, whilst the Roosters continue to have to
make do with what they have. It's been a very tough season for the
Roosters and I feel they're about to cop another big loss here against a
Manly side with plenty of points in them. Pick – 3 units on Manly -12.0
point start (BEST BET)
Eels -13.5 v Warriors
2 at 1.91
+1.82
The Warriors were clinically dismantled last week by the Titans while
the Eels continued to steam-roll their way to the top-eight by hammering
the Knights. This trip to Parramatta Stadium has traditionally been a
rough one for the Warriors and with their attack completely devoid of
ideas and penetration this match will be a very long one for them, up
against one of the hottest sides in the competition presently who have
no shortage of players that will take any half chances given, and with
the way the respective forward packs are going I expect the dominant
forward display from the Eels to lay the platform for plenty of
attacking raids on the Warriors line. I just can't see the Warriors
worrying this Eels side at all here, they're out of ideas and look out
of their depth against the big boys, this is going to get real ugly for
the Auckland side and it won't take long for the flood gates to open
here; the Eels should easily cover the negative point start on offer.
Pick – 2 units on Eels -13.5 point start
Raiders +7.5 v Dragons
2 at 1.91
+1.82
With the minor premiership all but sown up for the Dragons they now must
focus on maintaining the excellent standards they've set throughout 2009
leading into the finals; whilst the Raiders are at the opposite end of
the scale and with their finals chances gone will look to at least end
the season on a high note over the coming weeks. The Raiders have played
some of their best league of the season over the last two weeks and
could easily have come away with the win last week over the second
placed Bulldogs and they'll rate themselves a chance to get the win here
back on home soil where only two weeks ago they destroyed the Broncos
56-0. A number of the Raiders players are showing some great late-season
form and they're not a side that one would fancy playing at the moment,
especially not the high-flying Dragons given they've been completely
dominated by the Green-Machine in recent times, with Canberra winning 8
of the last 9 matches played between the sides. The Raiders have shown a
renewed energy over the last fortnight and when their attitudes right,
as it should be again here, they are as dangerous a side as any and I'm
happy to back them to get within the generous point start on offer. Pick
– 2 units on Raiders +7.5 point start
Sharks v Wests Tigers
NO PLAY
This is another match where history heavily favours one side - the
Tigers, who have won 9 of the last 10 matches played between these two
sides and given the opposite directions these two sides are travelling
it's no wonder the Bookies have the Tigers as firm favourites. I can't
argue with the Bookies here as they've got the line about right; the
Sharks are devoid of any offensive potency and while their heart can't
be questioned they just don't have the x-factor required to penetrate a
well organised defence. I don't see any value here as the Bookies have
the line about right. Pick – no play
Panthers +5.5 v Broncos
2 at 1.97
-2
While the Broncos won comfortably on Monday night against the Sharks
you'd hardly say it was a 'corner-turning' display of rugby league
brilliance, but rather an error ridden scrap against a struggling side,
this week though we should get a better indication as to how serious
they are about making the top eight, against a Panthers side who are
also in need of victories to cement their spot in the eight. I think the
Bookies have jumped out of the blocks a little early with the Broncos
following that win over Cronulla and like the line on offer here against
a Panthers side that have been dangerous all season and have just as
much motivation for the win here as the Broncos. The battle of the
forward packs should be fairly even, this game will be won in the backs
and the halves pairing of Walsh and Graham have been steering this
Panthers outfit very well and with Jennings, Sammut, Tighe and Gordon
all more than capable finishers I see plenty of points on offer for them
here, against a Broncos defence that, whenever truly tested this season,
has melted. This should be a high scoring match and a fairly even one,
drawing my attention to the point start on offer to the Panthers. Pick –
2 units on Panthers +5.5 point start
Knights v Storm
NO PLAY
The result here is a complete toss of the coin, you’ve got the Knights
whose season went into free-fall about three weeks ago with the news of
Brian Smiths departure next year and you’ve got the Storm on the other
hand who have been rocked during the week with the indefinite standing
down of their star player Greg Inglis and they risk a derailment similar
to that suffered by Manly with Brett Stewarts early season absence. Just
whether the Knights can turn things around and whether the Storm can
overcome the Inglis scandal will remain to be seen, one thing is for
certain though – this is definitely not a great match to bet on, toss a
coin. Pick – no play
NRL ROUND TWENTY-TWO
Storm -6.0 v Cowboys
3 at 1.93
+2.79
The Cowboys finally clicked last week in hammering the Titans, showing
glimpses of their 2005 form with Thurston commanding on attack and
support all round him; they are facing a Storm side though who are very
tough to beat at home and who are looking ominous, despite going down
last week to the runaway premiership favourites the Dragons. I can’t see
a repeat of the Cowboys effort this week, they are not going to have the
same freedom on attack against what will be a fierce Storm defensive
line who will be looking to make amends following several breaches
against the Dragons, whilst the offence showed signs of its best in
parts last week and they’ll find the going a lot easier here against the
inconsistent Cowboys. The Storm have won their last five in a row
against the Cowboys and they’ll easily make it six here, covering the
line. Pick – 3 units on Storm -6.5 or better point start
(BEST BET)
Panthers v Dragons
NO PLAY
This is a tough match for the Bookies, you’ve got the seemingly
unstoppable Dragons taking on the Panthers in Penrith, a team that’s
punched well above its weight in 2009, and who finally welcome back Luke
Lewis. The Bookies have it about right here though, the consistency the
Dragons have shown in 2009 has been phenomenal, they continue to lift
each week and showed their character last week in keeping their heads
against the Storm and coming back from a halftime deficit to run away
with the match and quite frankly they just don’t look beatable at the
moment. The lines about right here and I can’t see any great value, the
Panthers have shown plenty this year and could easily make this closer
than expected, it will remain to be seen whether they can keep out this
crisp and accurate Dragons offence though, something all other sides
have really struggled with. Dragons have won five on the trot versus the
Panthers and everything here points to a sixth but don’t sweat on the
margin. Pick – no play
Sea Eagles v Rabbitohs
NO PLAY
Once the Manly machine woke from its
slumber on Monday night they looked ominous but for most of the match
they were not anywhere near their best whilst the Bunnies jumped out of
the blocks against the Bulldogs only to be run down and swallowed
following some mistakes and shabby defending. I expect Manly to be back
to their best this week in front of the Brookvale faithful and I was
hoping for a tighter line from the Bookies but instead they have given
them a large margin to cover and I can’t really argue with it. Manly to
win but whether the Bunnies defence turns up and limits the damage will
remain to be seen, not a great betting match as the Bookies have the
lines about right. Pick – no play
Raiders +13.5 v Bulldogs
2 at 1.93
+1.86
The Raiders go into this match with more
confidence than they’d have had going into a game all year following a
56-0 win over the Broncos, there’ll be no delusions of grandeur going
into this match though as they know the Bulldogs are an altogether much
tougher challenge and they’ll have to lift even more to run them close.
I’ve thought all season that when this Raiders side fire they’re as good
as any and believe they’ll again be close to their best here; the
attacking style that the Raiders embrace could just be the key that
unlocks this Bulldogs defence and they should clock up enough points to
at get within the generous points start on offer. The Bulldogs have the
consistency going into this match but the Raiders have the element of
surprise that the Dogs will be concerned about, the recent record
between these two sides is fairly even and whilst I expect a Dogs win it
won’t be outside the line on offer. Pick – 2 units on Raiders +13.5
point start.
Warriors v Titans
NO PLAY
The Titans have only played once in
Auckland since they rejoined the NRL and that was a 30-6 loss to the
Warriors in 2007 and with the way they performed last week against the
Cowboys you’d not write off a similar score line here, such was the poor
state of their defence. The Warriors are still without Steve Price and
have dropped McKinnon for this match but lose nothing in moving Locke to
fullback, a position he will no doubt shine in given his elusive
running, excellent defence and general vision for the game. The Warriors
gave up a huge lead last week to draw with the Panthers but at least
showed an attitude and intensity that’s been missing from their play and
with the return to Auckland here will be looking to build on that and
could well get the upset. Rogers is back for the Titans, not at
five-eight but in the Centres, and otherwise are carrying the majority
of the side that’s gotten them into a good position to finish the season
in the top four. Apart from last weeks effort against Penrith the
Warriors have really struggled offensively, barely averaging double
figures, and teams no longer fear this Auckland trip like they have in
previous seasons, having said that though this is a real danger game for
the Titans as who knows whether we’ll see the Warriors of the first 60
minutes last week or the side that gave up a 32-6 lead in the last 20
minutes. Danger game for punters!! Pick – no play
Wests Tigers -6.5 vs Roosters
2 at 1.90
+1.8
The Tigers continued their charge for the
top-eight on Monday in beating Manly, doing so off the back of a great
forward display with the return of Galloway and Heighington lifting
them, they also have a backline that’s firing, led well by the in-form
Marshall and will take some beating over the coming weeks. The Roosters
finally put together a decent performance last week in hammering what
was an off Titans side but they’ll find this a lot tougher and have done
themselves no favours by putting Minichiello into five-eight, a position
he is not suited for and has very little experience in. The Roosters
will struggle to put together back to back good performances here and
will struggle to match the Tigers up front and the Tigers certainly have
the proven firepower to finish what opportunities they’re given. I see
this as going all the way of the Tigers as we return to business as
usual for the Roosters. Pick – 2 units on Tigers -6.5 or better point
start
Eels -4.5 v Knights
2 at 1.92
+1.84
The Knights have hit a real speed bump
over the last couple of weeks and it’s certainly no coincidence it’s
come following Brian Smiths announcement of departure at the end of the
season to coach the Roosters, just whether they can pick themselves up
this week will remain to be seen. The Eels have been great the past few
weeks and I am more than happy to back them again here to cover the
margin and win this comfortably. With Hayne the current MVP of the NRL
leading the attack and posing real danger whenever he’s got ball in
hand, and the likes of Moimoi, Hindmarsh, Cayless and co all firing up
front it’s going to be tough going to try and stop the momentum they’ve
built as they surge towards the top eight. It’s hard to see a sudden
turnaround from the Knights as further media attention has only fanned
the Smith issue and this is not a good time to be playing away from home
against one of the form sides in the competition….we’re finally seeing
Daniel Andersons influence at the Eels shine through and he’ll have this
side primed and ready again this week. Big win to the Eels here. Pick –
2 units on Eels –4.5 point start
Broncos -13.5 v Sharks
2 at 1.92
+1.84
I was really hoping the Bookies would be
swept away with the anti-Broncos sentiment that’s sweeping the NRL and
at least make the odds for this a little closer because I’ve little
doubt they are going to come out here and make us forget their 56-0
demolition at the hands of the Raiders last week in the best possible
way, by notching up a huge win of their own. The Broncos were nothing
short of pathetic last week and a disgrace to the proud club but they do
have a very capable squad, the main issue for them has been around
defence but what better side to prove a point against than the Sharks
who have really struggled offensively this season and with their chief
playmaker Barrett gone for the season they’ll again struggle this week.
The Broncos are full of game breakers that just needed the type of
wake-up call they received last week, watch for a big effort from the
senior Broncos players and for a very hungry side to launch a bid for
the top-eight. This is going to get ugly for the Sharks. Pick – 2 units
on Broncos -13.5 point start
NRL ROUND TWENTY-ONE
Storm to bt Dragons
2 at 2.77
-2
The Dragons continued on their path of excellence in thrashing the
woeful Warriors last weekend whilst the Storm defended stoutly against
the Sharks, weathering a very lop-sided possession count to run away
with the game, doing so without Greg Inglis and Ryan Hoffman who are
both back in the side for this match. I like the Storm to win this one,
they have a very solid defense, the likes of which the Dragons won't
have encountered for a long time, and with Inglis back in the side have
a number of devastating weapons at their disposal, they will put more
pressure on Soward than any other team has and will really test the
in-form five-eight and if they manage to nullify his kicking game then
they're half-way to shutting down the Dragons attack, something Bellamy
will have drilled into his players. The Storm have a very good record
over the Dragons, having won 9 of their last 10 games played, and will
approach this with a degree of confidence. Both these sides are grand
final candidates and expect grand final intensity here which will bring
out the best in the Storm big game players. Pick – 2 units on Storm to
win
Titans v Cowboys
NO PLAY
The Cowboys are proving a tough team to follow from a punters
perspective, they have a very talented squad but can't seem to win away
from Townsville and even at home last week they were run down and beaten
by an under-strength Panthers side. This isn't a good match for the
Punters, the lines about right from the Bookies and the eventual damage
inflicted by the Titans will depend on what sort of attitude the Cowboys
turn up with, which isn't worth betting on. Pick – no play
Raiders v Broncos
NO PLAY
This is again not a great match for the punters as we've got two sides
that are falling short of expectations and just what sort of attitude
they each take into the game is a lottery. The Raiders were flat last
week in being thrashed by the Tigers with their inability to turn
possession and position into points and their lack of defensive
structure when defending their own line will be a real worry for them.
The Broncos are not much better and have only managed to beat the woeful
Warriors over the last seven weeks, losing every other match by large
margins, they do however welcome back Lockyer, Carrol and Hunt for this
match but they've been that bad of late that even with these three
there's no assurance of a turn around. Neither side inspires any
confidence at all here and it’s certainly not a good match for the
Punters. Pick – no play
Panthers v Warriors
NO PLAY
Woeful, pathetic, spineless....all these words come to mind when I think
of the Warriors efforts in 2009 which were all highlighted in their huge
loss last week to the Dragons in Auckland, the Panthers on the other
hand have shown great character this season and continued to surprise
last week in beating the Cowboys in Townsville. Just what frame of mind
the Warriors will be in is hard to know, the only thing stopping me from
tipping a huge win to the Panthers is a nagging feeling the Warriors are
going to fire up after a week of heavy criticism in the NZ press, but
even a fired up Warriors side shouldn’t be too daunting for a top eight
team like the Panthers, still don’t like it though and best to sit out.
Pick – no play
Knights -14.5 v Roosters
2 at 2.06
-2
The Knights jumped out to a good lead last week only to be made to look
ordinary once the Manly machine kicked into gear at the 25 minute mark,
they should bounce back here though against a Roosters side that's just
making up the numbers in 2009. With Gidley back in the side this week
the Knights have more options on attack and the forwards will find going
a lot easier this week against a much softer forward pack, creating the
go-forward that the Knights have fed off all season. I will be very
surprised if this isn't a very big win to the Knights, it will only take
a few tries to get the Roosters to drop their heads and that’s when the
floodgates will open. Pick – 2 units on Knights -14.5 point start
Eels -6.5 v Sharks
2 at 1.96
+1.92
The Sharks can't buy a trick this season and not even a return to their
home ground here should make a difference as they're up against an Eels
side that's playing the best it has in two seasons with a number of star
players (Hayne, Moimoi, Hindmarsh etc) all hitting their straps. The
Sharks are without Barrett here, and with Gallen also out they're
looking very inexperienced. The Sharks lack impact on attack and will be
even worse off without Barrett whilst the Eels offence has looked very
impressive over the last fortnight and they'll have too much to offer
here. Pick – 2 units on Eels -6.5 point start
Rabbitohs to bt Bulldogs
1 at 3.15
-1
Rabbitohs +8.5 v Bulldogs
3 at 1.91
+2.73
This is the perfect match for the Bunnies to show everyone just how
serious their late charge for the finals is, up against a top four side
who'll be looking to bounce back hard after their loss to the Eels. It's
an interesting line from the Bookies here given the confidence and flair
the Bunnies have been playing with and I'm happy to recommend backing
them to get within the point start on offer as this Souths side have the
momentum and key players in form, with Sutton and Sandow playing
superbly and players like Luke, Asotasi, Simpson, Merritt all in their
best form of the season. The Eels exposed a few chinks in the Dogs
armour last week and the Bunnies will sense their vulnerability. Pick –
3 units on Souths +8.5 point start (BEST BET) and 1 unit on Souths to
win
Wests Tigers v Sea Eagles
NO PLAY
Whilst this should be an entertaining
Monday night encounter I don't see any real value here. The Sea Eagles
are rightfully favourites and the Bookies have the line about right,
expect a bruising match-up between two in-form forward packs; Manly are
looking ominous and you'd not want to bet against them, Monday night
league has thrown up some upsets this season though and with the form
the Tigers have shown lately you'd not bet with any great confidence
against them either. Pick – no play
NRL ROUND TWENTY
Titans 13+ v Broncos
2 at 2.00
+2
The Broncos are certainly up against it here without a number of injured
stars, not least of which their captain and chief playmaker Lockyer, but
also Wallace, Hunt, Carroll, Thaiday and Folau, whilst the most notable
absence for the Titans is Mat Rogers but they won't be too disadvantaged
given the cover they have in Preston Campbell, which means the
impressive Zillman gets a start at fullback. The Broncos only win in the
last 6 games was against the struggling NZ Warriors and other than that
they've looked far from impressive with a terrible defence and an attack
that's equally as unimpressive. Last time the Broncos were without both
Lockyer and Wallace they got thrashed by Cronulla, and this game
welcomes back the same Halves combo of Ben Hunt and Aaron Gorrell with
Hunt in particular looking out of his depth in that match which is
worrying for him considering who he's up against here in Prince. Titans
too will be looking to make amends following their loss to the Bulldogs
and do have the much stronger personnel and home ground advantage, where
they've not lost all season. The Titans will have way too many points in
them and I'll be surprised if this isn't anything short of a big win to
them. Pick – 2 units on Gold Coast 13+
Sea Eagles -7.0 v Knights
2 at 1.97
+1.94
I am a little surprised to see the opening
line on offer from the Bookies for this match, I'm not surprised Manly
are favourites but the line is quite big considering the way Newcastle
have been playing of late, it could be a result of the loss of Mullen at
Halfback for the Knights but Dureau has shown himself to be a very
useful playmaker so not too much should be lost there. Having said that
I do expect the Sea Eagles to really dive into this match, they've had
two weeks of below par performances by their standards and despite
Newcastle’s impressive form I think Manly will win this comfortably;
they're a very professional outfit and will have their eyes on a top
four spot. This match is being played in Gosford so no real advantage
either way, but Newcastle are coming off the Bye and with off-field
dramas around Brian Smiths defection to the Roosters next year I don't
believe we'll see them at their best. Get on Manly to win this quite
comfortably. Pick – 2 units on Manly -7.0 point start
Bulldogs v Eels
NO PLAY
Believe it or not but the Dogs have been fielding a below strength side
for the last month or so, you wouldn't guess it though from their
performances, this week though they are well and truly at full strength
with players back from suspension and injury. The Eels have grown
throughout the season and are currently looking as good as they have for
a season and a half and they showed just what they're capable of when
the intensity is there in beating the Storm last week in a very
determined effort. I don't see a whole lot of value here, the Dogs,
along with the Dragons, are clear premiership favourites and given the
strength of the side they've named you'd not want to bet against them
covering the line on offer, however you'd also not want to bet against
the Eels getting within the point-start on offer given how they played
last week. All in all a good game to sit back and watch, with wallet
safely locked away. Pick – no play
Cowboys -7.5 v Panthers
3 at 1.90
-3
The team that loses here will likely drop out of the top eight and given
the Panthers extraordinary record at Dairy Farmers Stadium they'd be
approaching this with some degree of confidence having won 8 of 11
matches they've played there. The Cowboys have the best halfback in the
competition and a number of star players around him and they should be
doing better and given their struggles away from home this year this
match is one that is a milestone one for them, lose here and there
finals chances are all of a sudden looking very slim, which is not good
enough given the personnel. I for one believe they'll get the win here
and win well, the Panthers were good last week against the Raiders but
got decisions they shouldn't have and also came up against a far from
impressive Raiders side on the night; the Cowboys have the playmakers to
cause all sorts of trouble here, the Panthers are still without a bulk
of experience and if they get behind in the game heads could drop and
the knife will turn. Pick – 3 units on North Queensland -7.5 point start
Storm 13+ v Sharks
3 at 2.32
+3.96
This match could not have come at a better time for the Storm as I
expect they will flex their muscles and remind us all of their
premiership credentials against a relatively inexperienced Sharks side
that lacks nothing of heart but are not on the same page as this Storm
side man for man. The Storm came up against a very spirited Eels side
last week and were taken somewhat by surprise as to just how well their
opposition played, this week though there'll be no such surprises. The
Storm welcome back their captain Cam Smith and Five-Eight Finch whilst
the Sharks are still without their captain Gallen. The Storm are man for
man a much much stronger side that the Sharks and they'll have had no
shortage of a rark-up from their coach Craig Bellamy; sit back and enjoy
a vintage Storm performance as they win by plenty. Pick – 3 units on to
win by Storm 13+ (BEST BET)
Wests Tigers +3.5 v Raiders
2 at 1.90
+1.8
The Raiders were well below my expectations last week in losing to the
Panthers and seem to sulk around like a kid who is missing its Mummy
when playing away from home, which is definitely not the make-up of a
champion side, regardless of how they play at home. The Tigers showed
they're ready to move up a gear and make a good dash for the finals and
could well cause many a headache given their tough uncompromising
forward pack and backline that's hitting a good note. The Bookies have
to install the Raiders as favourites at home given they do play well
there but I do like the Tigers to make a very good fist of it here and
at the very least get within the point start on offer as I do see
glimpses of those 2005 premiership winning qualities in them. Pick – 2
units on Tigers +3.5 point start
Warriors to bt Dragons
2 at 2.88
-2
This is it for the Warriors, this week is their Everest - up against the
top side in the competition in a match that if lost will certainly bury
the small hope they have of making a charge for the 2009 finals. I
definitely rate the home side with a chance here and believe last weeks
win over the Roosters could be the spark that ignites this side, who
really are, man for man, stacked with talent they've just lacked the
fire that will almost certainly burn bright here. In Auckland the
Warriors are a very tough side to beat and apart from their last match
against the Bulldogs they've looked very impressive at home and there is
certainly no shortage of motivation. They welcome back Price and the
impressive Locke and given the dangerous nature of this side when they
are forced into a corner, as they are now (and were last year in the
Finals against Melbourne) I expect an 80 minute effort in front of what
will be a large and vocal home crowd. Jones showed signs of good form
last week and they'll need him to be near his best, and I expect the
Little General to rise to the challenge. This same Warriors side should
have beaten the Dragons earlier in the season if not for a missed
field-goal and at home will have the belief and it’s worth getting on
the generous odds on offer, there’ll be plenty of nervous Bookmakers
heading into this match! Pick – 2 units on Warriors to win
Rabbitohs v Roosters
NO PLAY
Neither of these sides have risen to any great heights since the round
one massacre that had Russ Crowe thinking he was an Emperor of ancient
times and saw the Roosters thrashed by 40 points. The Roosters finally
welcome back Minichiello for this match who has had the captaincy thrust
at him given Fitzgibbons absence but his addition on the Wing won't make
a huge impact on their fortunes and given the Bunnies have the momentum
behind them and are playing, in the last two games, as well as they have
all season I'd expect another comfortable win here. Sutton and Sandow
have reignited their dangerous partnership on attack and the whole side
has had a personality transplant, getting that belief back into the side
that went missing once their egos got over-inflated. Whilst I expect the
Bunnies to get the win here I don't see it as a great betting match as
the lines about right and the Roosters did show signs last week they're
willing to fight to avoid the Wooden Spoon so could make this closer
than expected, whether they have the personnel to do so is another
question though. Pick – no play
NRL ROUND NINETEEN
Rabbitohs +4.5 v Broncos
2 at 1.94
+1.88
The Bunnies looked great last weekend against a depleted Panthers side,
the true test comes this week though away from home against a Broncos
side who themselves looked much better in their last outing in beating
the NZ Warriors, with Carroll's presence lifting the side, they are
however without the inured Lockyer, Thaiday and Folau for this match.
The Broncos are rightfully favourites here but with the injuries they
have and other players backing up from Wednesday’s origin it has
somewhat evened things up and if the full-strength Bunnies can match
last weeks defensive effort and completion rate then they have a good
shot at the win. Taylor will have been hammering into his side that
lasts weeks win counts for nothing if they fall short here and I am
expecting another decent effort which should see them at least get
within the point start on offer. Pick – 2 units on Souths +4.5 point
start
Titans to bt Bulldogs
2 at 2.27
-2
It's been at this time over the last few seasons that the Titans have
either begun or been in the midst of their slide down the table, with
key injuries usually playing a part, it's a very different story this
season though with them sitting pretty at third on the table and a fit
and healthy squad that's getting the job done, with the added bonus this
week of fresh players, with only Harrison turning out for Wednesdays
origin, which is not the case for the Bulldogs who have three players
backing up and a handful out through suspension/injury. Cartwright will
be drumming it into his players that this is an opportunity they need to
take, this is probably the strongest side they've named all season and
have the chance to take second spot on the ladder; they have the attack
led by Prince to cause the Dogs concern and I'll be surprised if two of
the Dogs top playmakers - Kimmorley and Ennis are not a little lethargic
with the 48 hour turnaround. I like the Titans to cause the upset. Pick
– 2 units on Titans to win
Raiders to bt Panthers
3 at 1.95
-3
The Panthers got away with some very loose defence two weeks ago when
they snuck past the Eels in a high scoring match, they couldn't however
repeat their offensive effort last week when they let through plenty of
tries in losing to the Rabbitohs. This is a milestone match for the
Raiders 2009 season as it basically comes down to being a game they must
win - a position they've dug themselves into through a lack of
consistency. We've seen the Raiders battle when required to this season
and they'll need that fight in them for the remaining rounds if they are
to make the top eight. There are very few sides in the competition
that's better to watch than the Raiders when they click and given the
Panthers defensive woes of late I see this being a great chance for the
visitors to pile on the points. The Panthers are still without
Civonaceva and Lewis who've been missed both in leadership and
go-forward, they've also missed the x-factor the injured Pritchard
provides on attack and are also likely to be without Jennings in the
Centres. I’m not convinced the Panthers will offer much on attack
against this sea-saw Raiders side who have plenty of points in them and
are ready to bounce back this week and start a late run for the finals.
Pick – 3 units on Raiders to win (BEST BET)
Sharks v Sea Eagles
NO PLAY
The Sea Eagles were brought back down to earth last week and will find
it tough to bounce back in their expected fashion this week, with
players backing up from origin and L'Estrange and Matai suspended they
may just be a week short of getting back to top gear, against this
inexperienced Sharks side though they should get the win even playing at
80%. The Sea Eagles forwards will win the metres gained battle and lay
the platform for Orford and Lyon to create havoc for the Sharks
defensive line, whilst at the other end I don't see too many points in
the Sharks offence. Manly won the corresponding match last season 34-6
and I won’t fall off my seat if we see a similar score-line here, but I
also won’t be shocked if it’s closer than expected. The Bookies have the
margin about right here and there’s not a lot of value. Pick – no play
Roosters v Warriors
NO PLAY
Both these sides (along with the Eels) are firm Wooden Spoon favourites
for 2009, the Warriors cemented that tag after their shambles in
Auckland last week in losing to a severely under-strength Bulldogs side
with their inability to convert pressure and possession into points that
has them sitting in 13th position. It's interesting that Cleary has not
given Hohaia a little longer to establish himself as a five-eight,
instead bringing in rookie Isaac Johns to fill that spot and it is only
good fortune for Jones there's no competition at Halfback or else he'd
have to be out of the side given his lack of presence and effectiveness
on the field. The Roosters are in no better shape and this could really
go either way, the Warriors of old were at their most dangerous and
unpredictable when in this type of position but this 2009 version seem
to have had the flare coached out of them. It's highly likely Price
won't be fit for this clash which means Luck will again captain the
side, and to say he's a poor mans Steve Price is a complete
understatement. Toss a coin here; both sides are playing for pride which
is something neither side have showed much of in 2009. Pick – no play
Wests Tigers -2.5 v Cowboys
3 at 1.91
+2.73
The Tigers flexed their muscles in their last outing against a hapless
Rabbitohs side, running in over 50 points and showing what they're
capable of, whilst the Cowboys also impressed two weeks back with their
comprehensive win over the Sharks. The Tigers need to back up that win
over the Bunnies with another strong performance here and with close to
their strongest side named and no players backing up from origin they go
into this fresh, knowing it's business time for season 2009, with every
loss, particularly at home, putting a major dent in their finals
aspirations. The Cowboys are without their enforcer O'Donnell and have
three players backing up from Wednesday, two of which, if they play,
will be carrying injuries - Thurston who looked 80% after an early knock
on Wednesday and Tonga. I like the Tigers to get the job done here,
they're slight favourites and should cover the narrow points margin,
they have a good record over the Cowboys in Sydney and with Farah and
Benji both fit and running the show they look like a side with plenty of
points in them. Pick – 3 units on Wests -2.5 point start
Eels +6.5 v Storm
2 at 1.85
+1.7
The Eels have looked better and better over the last month and put in
another spirited performance last week in narrowly losing to the Titans
whilst the Storm did a Houdini in their last match against Newcastle,
with a try at the death earning them an unlikely victory having been
dominated the whole match. The Storm will be grateful for the Monday
night game given they've got five players backing up from origin. The
Eels will take another step up here as they look to build on the last
few weeks and will want to distance themselves from Wooden Spoon
contention. With Hayne back in the side to run things at fullback and
Mortimer and Robson looking more and more comfortable in the Halves,
along with a forward pack loaded with experience and who are also
looking better each week, I see good value in the point start on offer
to the home side. Daniel Anderson has made slow progress with the
shambles he inherited from Michael Hagen and he'll be eyeing up this
match as a chance see just what this side is capable of. Pick – 2 units
on Eels +6.5 point start
NRL ROUND EIGHTEEN
Rabbitohs -5.0 v Panthers
3 at 1.97
+2.91
The Bunnies have been a shambles of late and last weeks defensive effort
in conceding over 50 points to the Tigers was a disgrace; the Panthers
on the other hand showed plenty of ticker in beating a defiant Eels side
with a late try. The Panthers are without Lewis, Civonaceva, Waterhouse
and Jennings for this match, whilst the Bunnies have Crocker and Wing
out. The Bunnies have the attacking capabilities to hurt any side, it is
their defence that is the obvious concern, they are however all worthy
First-Graders and know how to tackle and I expect a huge lift in effort
here, they're not only playing for their own careers, they're playing
for the career of their coach and the pride of the club - back on home
soil and up against a depleted Panthers outfit the Bunnies will
definitely turn it around here with a Gladiatorial effort. Sutton has
been trying too hard of late and the sides been suffering from
incomplete sets, they'll focus here on a more simple game plan and a
higher completion rate which I expect will pay dividends; the Panthers
on the other hand will hurt without those key players mentioned above
and I don't see a whole lot of points in them, up against what will be a
desperate and much improved Bunnies defence. Bunnies to run away with
this one. Pick – 3 units on Rabbitohs -5.5 or better point start
(BEST BET)
Knights v Raiders
NO PLAY
This one should go right down to the wire, the Raiders have been
dazzling on attack in their last two games but they'll be disappointed
with the way their defence let the Titans back into the match last week,
whilst the Knights were unlucky to not come away with the win in their
match against the Storm, doing everything but win the match. I don't see
any real value here, the Knights are rightfully favourites at home given
the quality of their play this season, the Raiders do have a side that
is more than capable of getting up here though, whether we see the team
that showed up last week in their first half effort or the side that
nearly lost them the game in the second half will remain to be seen
though. Neither side has a big advantage though origin absences, the
Knights are without their captain Gidley and the Raiders without
Shillington and Learoyd-Lahrs. Pick – no play
Warriors -6.5 v Bulldogs
2 at 1.91
-2
What a great opportunity this is for the Warriors, up against one of the
top sides in the competition who are without nearly half their regular
side through origin, suspension and injury with - Idris, Eastwood,
Goodwin, Kimmorley, Morris, Hannant and Ennis all missing, whilst the
Warriors have Price out but welcome back the human wrecking ball Manu
Vatuvai. The Dogs kicking game and go-forward around dummy-half is going
to struggle without Kimmorley and Ennis respectively, and as a result
points could be at a premium for the visitors. The worry for the
Warriors is the lack of leadership from anyone when Price was off the
field last week against the Broncos, he was single-handedly grabbing the
side bye the collars and pulling them along, without him on the park
though they lost their way and it will be down to the likes of senior
players Jones, Luck, Mannering and co to lift their own presence on the
field this week and steer the ship. The Warriors have not conceded a
point at home in their last two matches there and I expect another huge
effort on defence this week. Realistically the Warriors can pretty much
kiss their top eight chances goodbye, the team however won't have given
up hope and I expect will make a good fist of it, starting here with a
good win over the depleted Dogs. Pick – 2 units on Warriors -6.5 point
start
Dragons v Sea Eagles
NO PLAY
Both these sides have plenty of winning momentum behind them going into
this clash but both line-ups are depleted for this with the Dragons
missing four regulars and Manly missing six. The Dragons still have a
very strong side for this match, with at least five players taking the
field who could just as easily and deservedly be playing for their state
on Wednesday, the state’s loss is the Dragons gain though and the
Bookies have recognised this with the heavy favouritism tag they've
given the home side. The Dragons have very good cover for those players
missing, this is a match they really should win, the Bookies have the
line about right here though. Pick – no play
Titans v Eels
NO PLAY
Just when other sides are losing players to injury and rep footy the
Titans have the unusual luxury of welcoming a number of their big guns
back for this match and, with the exception of Harrison (origin), have
named close to their strongest side available, whilst the Eels just lose
the one player from the side that narrowly lost to Penrith - their star
fullback Hayne. Even though the Titans have named a very strong side
there's a chance of a few cobwebs, with a number of players making their
first appearance in a while, and with the gusto the Eels showed in their
play against the Panthers last week this match could be closer than
their respective ladder placing suggest. There's no doubt the Titans
deserve their firm favouritism and if the Eels don't show up to play
then this could get real ugly, something tells me the visitors will
front though but whether that's enough to get them within the
point-start on offer is not worth prising open your wallets for. Pick –
no play
NRL ROUND SEVENTEEN
Broncos -7.5 v Warriors
3 at 1.96
+2.88
Both of these sides are going through a very poor patch of form but with
the shocking form the Warriors have on the road and the personnel the
Broncos welcome back into their side this week (Folau, Hodges and
Carroll!!), they are without fullback Hunt but I still only see this
match going one way. The Warriors away from home are half the side
defensively and not much more offensively as what we see when they play
in Auckland and they appear to be going backwards in this regard with
yet another shocker from them last week in losing to the Titans. The
Warriors are going to struggle to contain the Broncos backline - which
contains five current origin rep players - and I expect Toni Carroll's
presence from out of retirement to have a very positive effect on
lifting the forwards to much higher levels than we've seen in recent
weeks, and in front of a big Brisbane crowd I expect the home side to
put in their best performance of the season and win this comfortably.
Pick – 3 units on Broncos -7.5 point start
Dragons v Roosters
NO PLAY
This match-up has promised so much in the past but with both these sides
having headed in opposite directions in 2009 and even the Roosters
breaking their drought of wins last week against the Sharks won't change
that. The Dragons do enjoy a very favourable recent record over the
Roosters and with the form they are currently in I expect the score line
to get ugly here, they offer way too much on attack for the lacklustre
Roosters defence to be able to handle and with an uncompromising defence
that will easily repel whatever the Chooks throw at them. The Bookies
have a big line here and I agree with it - no play. Pick – no play
Rabbitohs v Wests Tigers
NO PLAY
Both of these sides really needed the win last week to breath some hope
into their top 8 chances but neither came through with the goods, the
Tigers going down in an uninspiring performance to the Dragons whilst
the Rabbitohs score line was flattered by two late tries in going down
to the Knights. There's no clear edge for either of these sides, I never
like it when there's talk about player disharmony in a side as we've
heard about the Bunnies this week but whether that carries over onto the
field this week will remain to be seen, one thing is for sure here -
this is not a great betting match as neither side inspires a lot of
confidence and the result is definitely in the balance. At a push I’d
say the Tigers to win, provided they can get their terrible completion
rate up. Stay clear of this one though. Pick – no play
Storm -8.0 v Knights
2 at 1.92
-2
We'll see a fresher Storm side take the field here after a number of
their stars had to back up last week against Canberra and perhaps were
not at their blistering best, back at home and with some time to rest
they'll be a much tougher prospect and given the Knights 2009 record
they certainly won't be taking them easy. The Knights built their win
over the Bunnies last week around a very solid forwards effort and none
were as impressive as Fa'aoso who was hitting the line as hard as anyone
I've seen, their second half display was as impressive as they come and
blew the Bunnies away with their intensity and speed, they won't have
the luxury of their home fans cheering them on here though and are up
against a Storm side who very rarely lose at home and who are desperate
to stay in touch of the top couple of sides. The Knights will find the
Storm defensive line much tougher to crack than the Bunnies were and if
the Storm playmakers come to the par-tay (which they will) we'll see
plenty of points to the home side. Pick – 2 units on Storm -8.5 or
better point
start
Cowboys -12.5 v Sharks
3 at 1.97
+2.91
The Cowboys were well short of their best last week against a rampant
Bulldogs side in Sydney, it's a different story here though with a side
that'll be much more fresh and playing back in Townsville. The Sharks
brave run of wins came to a halt last week against the Roosters and with
Gallen and Barrett both out of this clash it's going to be a long night
for the Sharks against the Cowboys side h top four aspirations. There
are too many playmakers within the Cowboys side and they'll be busying
themselves all night, causing the Sharks defence all sorts of troubles
whilst on the other hand I don't expect the young and inexperienced
Sharks attack to cause to many troubles in the Townsville cauldron. Pick
– 3 units on Cowboys -12.5 point start (BEST BET)
Raiders HT/FT v Titans
3 at 2.17
+3.51
The Raiders played their best match of the season last week in beating
the Storm, they looked very sharp on attack, particularly out wide, it's
consistency they've struggled with this year though which is why they're
sitting outside of the top eight. The Raiders are as good as any in the
competition when it all clicks and they will have celebrated that
victory over the Storm with a degree of calm, knowing that if they don't
back it up this week (and weeks to come) then it all basically amounts
to nothing. the Raiders have destroyed the Titans over the last two
seasons playing in Canberra with a combined points aggregate favouring
the home side 102-14. I like Campese to back up his effort last week
with another top performance and for the Raiders side to again lift and
dominate from the opening whistle. Pick – 3 units on Raiders/Raiders half/fulltime double
Panthers v Eels
NO PLAY
The Eels surprised last week in upsetting the Broncos, they've not put
in strong back to back performances yet in 2009 though so I wouldn't go
re-mortgaging the house based on that effort. Both these sides have
points n them and both have more often than not been susceptible on
defence in 2009 so we could see I high scoring affair here. The Panthers
are favourites and have been the more consistent of the two, especially
at home, but I don't see this as a good betting match as the Eels could
surprise, Hayne seems to be on a one-way mission to single-handedly win
matches these days (and is doing a fine job of it mostly) so if the side
get in behind the star fullback anything is possible. Pick – no play
Sea Eagles -2.5 v Bulldogs
2 at 1.91
+1.82
Both these sides are in excellent form, the Bulldogs have basically
maintained the same level of play all season whilst the Sea Eagles, once
they woke from their defending-premier slumber, have been close to their
best but can still get better and this will be the perfect marker for
them to see how far they've come since the opening round where they lost
to the Dogs by 22 points. I like the Sea Eagles to get up here, they've
named a very strong side that's hitting their straps and will not lack
any motivation in front of their home fans, looking to knock over a top
of the table side and continue their march up the ladder. Pick – 2 units
on Manly -2.5
NRL ROUND SIXTEEN
Wests Tigers to bt Dragons
1 at 3.04
-1
Wests Tigers +8.0 v Dragons
3 at 1.91
-3
The Dragons continue to roll through teams, with their latest victory
coming two weeks ago over the Cowboys, whilst the Tigers continue their
slide down the table after yet another loss to the Storm last week, they
did however show enough positive signs to indicate they will be
competitive here, especially given the return of Farah to the line-up.
The Dragons brilliant play is built around an uncompromising defence
that could just take an attack as unpredictable as the Tigers to break
it, providing they put their handling woes aside, which they look to
have done so, they will need to put in a mammoth defensive effort here
though and match the Dragons muscle up front which they are capable of
doing. The Tigers have won 6 of their last 7 against the Dragons and
they are now in the last-chance-saloon in terms of season 2009, with
everything to play for and in front of their home fans I think we'll see
an overdue performance from the Tigers who offer good value with the
point start. Pick – 3 units on Tigers +7.5 or better point start (BEST BET)
and 1
unit on Tigers to win.
Bulldogs v Cowboys
NO PLAY
The Cowboys were courageous last week in downing the Roosters, doing so
without their four best players who they welcome back for this clash
against a Bulldogs side that's riding high but will step cautiously onto
the field here given their recent 0-4 record against the Cowboys. I
expect this to be a close one which makes the point start on offer
tempting, however it's not tempting enough, the Dogs deserve the
favouritism but given the Cowboys recent strong form and record against
the Dogs this result is certainly in the balance. Pick – no play.
Warriors to bt Titans
2.5 at 2.72
-2.5
The Titans enter this clash following a two week break and with a few
injury clouds hanging over their side, presenting the Warriors with an
opportunity to silence the critics who are questioning their heart and
desire when playing away from Auckland. I can't see a better opportunity
than this for the Warriors to strike and build on their last outing
defensively where they kept the Knights scoreless, they're also looking
a much better side offensively with Hohaia at Five-Eighth, taking
pressure off Jones to produce the big plays. This is it for the
Warriors, they must make a statement here and win away from Auckland, if
not then the season is all but gone. We've seen time and again they're
able to lift and I believe they've got the team and the motivation this
week to turn a few heads. Pick – 2.5 units on Warriors to win.
Sharks to bt Roosters
2 at 1.93
-2
The less said about the Roosters the better, they seemed to believe
their whole season had fallen into place after 5 minutes last week and
let their foot off the pedal against a depleted Cowboys side who
strolled through their pathetic defensive line. With Anasta now out for
the season and Pearce hardly setting the world on fire it's hard to see
this side winning another game this season (they will though but I pity
the side who lose to this bunch). I'd normally count on the coach to
shoot from the hip and offer some words/actions to spur the side into
action but Fittlers actions on Friday night in Townsville says it all.
The Sharks were very impressive last week against the Broncos and have
confirmed they've well and truly turned the corner with a kicking game
that's on the money, a defence that's getting tougher to breach each
week and pace out wide to finish things off, I don't expect them to miss
Barrett too much and should trample the Roosters here. Pick – 2 units on
Sharks -1.5 or better.
Raiders to bt Storm
1 at 2.72
+1.72
Raiders +6.0 v Storm
2 at 1.91
+1.82
The Raiders clicked last week against Manly, the only problem was it
came too late after giving up a 20 point margin. The Raiders are at full
strength here and, like many other sides this week, it's basically do or
die for them, they do have the bonus of facing the Storm without their
star Inglis and potentially others, depending on who is backing up from
origin. I am a great believer in this Raiders side, particularly in
front of their home fans, and have seen them perform to levels rivalling
all this season, they've struggled with consistency but this match we'll
see them at their best with Campese putting his hand up for an Origin
recall. Pick – 2 units on Raiders +5.5 or better point start and 1 unit on Raiders
to win.
Broncos -3.0 v Eels
2.5 at 1.95
-2.5
The Eels slide continued in their last match with a horrible performance
against the Sharks, showing very little on attack and not much more on
defence. The Broncos are hardly inspiring anyone to reach for their
wallets here given their atrocious form in the last three matches,
conceding a record number of points whilst offering close to nothing on
attack, they do however welcome back some very heavy artillery in
Lockyer, Folau, Hunt and Thaiday, (as well as Wallace) so the big
turnaround is on. This is understandably a narrow margin from the
Bookies but they're missing the bigger picture here, the Broncos are a
good team in rough form and could snap this at any time, but the Eels
are an average team in form that's not playing too far below
expectations. I like the Broncos to muscle up here and get some
respectability back into their side, starting with their defence that I
expect will make amends for the last three weeks. Pick – 2.5 units on
Broncos -3.5 or better point start.
Knights v Rabbitohs
NO PLAY
The Knights continue to impress with their consistency and even though
the Warriors kept them scoreless in Auckland two weeks ago they were
still in the match right up until the 75th minute. I'm not going to say
too much here, I've been expecting a drop in intensity from the Knights
to come but it hasn't, whilst on the other hand I've been expecting a
big raise in intensity from the Bunnies but it's not come, I'm still
expecting both to happen though but whether it's here is not a gamble
worth taking. Pick – no play.
STATE OF ORIGIN II
New South Wales vs Queensland
With all the talk recently being
about how great this Queensland side is and how we’ve not seen such
origin dominance for many many years this match stands out as one where
the Cockroaches can crawl from their sheltered existence and prove that
they too have a decent side, especially on home soil, who are able to
upset the star-studded Queenslanders. There is certainly a lot to like
in the NSW side, who will be better off with Barrett’s and Gallen’s
inclusion, two players that have the experience and form to shift the
weight of balance somewhat from Origin One. The NSW side have a forward
pack capable of shutting down the Queenslanders and I believe they will
be up for the challenge, providing a platform for the team to launch
from. Passion is everything in Origin football and not for a very long
time has there been more motivation for the NSW side than there is for
this clash, they have pride to restore and a reputation to uphold, lose
here and they’re well and truly staring down the barrel of a 3-nil
series whitewash. The home side will lift and off the back of a dominant
forward display I see the experience of Barrett, Lyons, Monaghan, Hayne
and Gidley lighting up the backline to seal the upset win.
Pick – NSW to win
NRL ROUND FIFTEEN
Bulldogs -9.5 v Panthers
2 at 1.90
-2
The Panthers had a dreadful completion rate last week and were lucky
Manly butchered a number of plays or else the score could have been much
uglier; it doesn't come much tougher for them than this weeks match
against a very impressive looking Bulldogs side who are at near full
strength (just Hannant out for Origin) and having to take the field
without their three aces - Civoniceva, Lewis and Jennings, they've also
lost fullback Coote to a long term injury which sees Sammut move back to
Fullback. The Dogs mauled the Broncos last week in Brisbane with
basically the same side we'll see take the field here and there is
nothing that tells me this won't be an even more comprehensive victory
this week - I expect a stronger defensive effort this week and much of
the same on attack, with Roberts and Kimmorley laying it on across the
park. Pick – 2 units on Bulldogs -9.5 point start
Roosters to bt Cowboys
3 at 1.95
-3
Even though they lost last week to the Titans it was refreshing to
finally see some spirit within the Roosters side - an urgency we've not
seen for a while and glimpses of attack that we had expected from them
all along in 2009. The Cowboys are without their four best players for
this - Thurston, Bowen, O’Donnell and Tonga, all players that are
imperative to the Cowboys attacking structure of play and they will be
missed badly. I'm not convinced the Cowboys will have any real potency
on attack here and with Ty Williams playing at the unaccustomed Fullback
position I expect plenty of testing kicks from Anasta and Pierce to go
his way. The Roosters will take heart from that narrow loss last week,
they don't have a bad record in Townsville and are fielding a settled
side that should get an overdue win here. Pick – 3 units on Roosters to
win (BEST BET)
Storm -5.5 v Wests Tigers
2 at 1.92
-2
The Storm have been disappointing over recent years around this time
with Origin stars missing and I feel this match will be one where the
players and stand-in coach Kearney really try and prove a point. The
Storm are not being hit as hard as previous seasons with players out
through origin with just four regulars missing and looking through the
team sheet there is still a wealth of talent and experience taking the
field. The Tigers are still a long way off their best and apart from a
final 10 minute haul of points last week against the Eels I felt they
were average, they lose Farah for this clash leaving Marshall, who is
also nowhere near his best, with much more of the attacking burden. The
Storm are going to be tough to crack and I question whether the Tigers
have the offensive firepower to cause too many concerns, whilst the
Storm forward pack will make plenty inroads, giving Finch and Cronk
plenty of opportunities to continue to show their hand attacking the
Tigers line. The line from the Bookies is closer than I expected, the
Tigers have not won in Melbourne in seven attempts and I expect will
fall well short here. Pick – 2 units on Storm -5.5 or better
Sea Eagles v Raiders
NO PLAY
The Raiders were nothing short of poor last week losing to the Sharks in
a match they should have been well and truly up for following their good
showing against the Rabbitohs the previous week. The Raiders have a very
poor recent record against Manly (they've lost 6 of the last 7
encounters) but won't get a better chance than this to beat them given
the home side is without five of their stars through Origin. Canberra
are often at their best when they're on the rebound and are a much
better side than their position on the table suggests, if they have the
attitude right then they're as tough as any and after the Sharks
disappointment I don't imagine they'll have any shortage of motivation
here. Manly could struggle in the yardage department without regulars
Watmough, Stewart and Kite, whilst Lyons absence will put a lot more
pressure on Orford, who the Raiders will certainly look to shut down.
The Green Machine should make this a competitive match but with their
inconsistency and poor record away from home (and particularly poor
recent record against Manly) it’s best to sit this one out. Pick – no
play
Sharks v Broncos
NO PLAY
This a tale of two sides that have gone in opposite directions in recent
weeks with the Broncos suffering their second consecutive heavy defeat
last week at the hands of the Bulldogs whilst the Sharks scored their
third win in a row with their victory over the Raiders. The Broncos are
without a host of players this week due to Origin and are fielding a
very green side, whilst the Sharks are without two of the players that
have been instrumental to their revival - Barrett and Gallen; just how
well the Sharks will go without the two mentioned is hard to know,
especially given the hand Barrett's had in nearly all of their offensive
turnaround. This match will test the depth and character of both sides
and the result really is in the balance. Pick – no play
NRL ROUND FOURTEEN
Broncos v Bulldogs
NO PLAY
I expect Brisbane will bounce back here
following their poor showing against the Storm last week and as long as
both Wallace and Lockyer play we should see a return to the crisp
attacking flair that's got them to where they are on the table, they are
up against a very good Bulldogs side though who are coming off a loss
themselves. With all the talk of Swine Flu there's a chance one or both
of these sides will have players missing, or at least their preparations
interrupted, which could have some bearing on the outcome. The Broncos
are still without Hodges with his absence proving very costly last week
as the backline faltered against a quick Storm defensive line, something
similar to what they'll face here. I like the home side to take this but
it's not one to have a punt on as the Bulldogs have very strong
credentials. Pick – no play
Warriors -2.5 v Knights
3 at 1.90
+2.7
Even given the Warriors lack of
penetration and poor execution last week in losing to the Sharks I can't
go past them coming away with the victory here over a Knights side they
have performed well against over recent years, who themselves are coming
off a disappointing loss to the Eels and are without their star player
and captain Kurt Gidley. The Warriors are a different side at home and I
believe we'll see a similar defensive effort to what they put in two
weeks back when they kept the Tigers scoreless, they have scored one
hundred less points than the Knights this season but I expect this will
be a match based more on defence than attack and the Warriors will be
better off with Moon not playing given his complete miss-firing at
Five-Eighth, with Hohaia coming in as replacement. This match means more
in the context of the Warriors season than it does to the Knights with a
loss to the home side here, given the matches they have in front of
them, making the task of climbing into the top eight very very tough. I
expect the Warriors senior players to step up here and lead the way; the
dropping of Ropati for this match puts everyone on notice with Ivan
Cleary's patience clearly running out and nothing short of a win will
stop him from wielding the axe some more. Pick – 3 units on Warriors
-3.5 or better point start. (BEST BET)
Roosters v Titans
NO PLAY
The train wreck that is the Roosters
continued to roll on last week with another uninspiring performance in
losing to Manly, whilst the Titans put in their best first-half of
football of the season against the Dragons, eventually holding out the
competition leaders for the win. This match has a big 'DANGER KEEP OUT'
sign all over it, the Titans have been mostly ordinary away from the
Gold Coast so far this season whilst the Roosters, as bad as they've
been, have too many players with too much proven potential to continue
to lose each week and a win is just around the corner, it’s a long and
winding road though. Pick – no play
Sea Eagles-1.5 v Panthers
2 at 1.92
+1.84
Manly's season resurgence continued last
week with a comprehensive win over the Eels with their defence looking
stronger and stronger each week and will be called on here against a
Panthers side lacking nothing in confidence on attack. The Panthers are
without their star Centre Jennings and the impressive Luke Lewis, both
of whom have been stand-out performers for them, particularly on attack,
whilst the Manly side is close to their strongest. I see ominous signs
from Manly's senior players who've led this mini transformation in the
side and I like the Eagles to soar here. The Panthers did get the win
over Wests last week but it was off the back of one of the most error
ridden performances the Tigers have ever put in, almost handing the game
to the Panthers on a platter, they certainly will not get the same
offerings here from the clinical Manly side. Pick – 2 units on Manly
-1.5 point start
Rabbitohs v Storm
NO PLAY
Jason Taylor must be infuriated with what
he's seen from his Rabbitohs side lately, capped off with a humiliating
thrashing by the Cowboys last week with errors, lack of intensity, poor
defence and general lack of cohesion characterising their play. The
Bunnies could really do with a home crowd of loyal fans to cheer them on
this week but instead their 'home' match is being played in Perth, on
neutral ground, which will suit the rampaging Storm side just fine as
they look to carry on their momentum following their very comprehensive
win over the Broncos last week, looking every bit the premiership
favourites when everything clicks, which it did last week. It looks like
the Storm have uncovered another possible star in Tomane on the wing and
with the class they already have right across the park, all playing with
the skill, accuracy and desire we've come to expect from this side, they
will be way too strong for the struggling Bunnies, who have lost their
last seven in a row to the Storm. Unfortunately the Bookies have the
line about right here with a very generous points margin. Pick – no play
Raiders -7.5 v Sharks
2 at 1.90
-2
The Raiders last outing two weeks ago was
their best performance of the season, getting the win over the
Rabbitohs, they welcome back Campese into the side for this clash whose
offensive input will add to their impressive arsenal and if
Learoyd-Lahrs, Tongue, Herbert, Monaghan and co can play to that same
level then the Sharks will be punished. The Sharks have shown plenty of
ticker over the last fortnight but both wins have come over struggling
sides - the Eels and the Warriors. The Raiders will certainly not be
taking the Sharks lightly given the Sharks have won their last four
matches at Canberra Stadium, but they are a very different side to that
of seasons past. The Raiders will heap pressure on Sharks danger men -
Barrett, Gallen and Tupou and I expect more of what we saw from their
Souths outing and for the pace of the game to be too much for the
visiting Sharks. I expect the Raiders to win this one comfortably. Pick
– 2 units on Raiders -7.5 point start
Dragons -3.5 v Cowboys
2 at 1.90
+1.8
The Cowboys have been great their last few
matches, both of which were played in Townsville though and they've
shown this season they struggle to lift to that same level away from
home. The Dragons second half performance last week showed the depth of
character in this side, falling just short of what would have been a
great comeback against the Titans, they will be the better off for this
match having been truly tested by the Titans though whilst the Cowboys
haven’t been challenged their last two matches with easy wins over
Souths and Newcastle. The margin on offer here is narrow and I like the
Dragons to bounce back with a fairly comfortable win. Jamie Soward’s
kicking game is still the best in the NRL and I expect him to exploit
the height advantage the Dragons have out wide with some testing kicks
towards Matt Bowan and Ty Williams. The Dragons offer too much across
the park here and will bounce back from last weeks disappointment. Pick
– 2 units on Dragons -4.5 or better point start
Eels v Wests Tigers
NO PLAY
The Tigers completion rate last week
against the Panthers was the worst of any side I've seen in a long long
time and the fact they were still in the game with 10 minutes to go was
a minor miracle considering they dropped the ball nearly every time they
were on attack. Until the Tigers go back to basics and stop pushing
miracle passes they are going to be a hit and miss side, just like their
opposition this week the Eels. The Eels have won the last 8 clashes
between these sides and will take confidence from last weeks win over
Newcastle and will be especially happy with the performance from their
halves combo of Robson and Mortimer, who played well in an area the Eels
have really struggled this season. This is another game that has a very
large DANGER DO NOT ENTER sign over it for Punters. Pick – no play
NRL ROUND THIRTEEN
Storm v Broncos
NO PLAY
The Storm were disappointing in their last outing going down heavily to
the Bulldogs, prior to that performance though they were showing
glimpses of being back to their best and up against a premiership rival
here I expect their true colours to again shine. The Storm have a very
good record over the Broncos in recent memory, winning 5 of their last 6
encounters but with both sides smattered with stars backing up from
Wednesday's origin this match could turn into somewhat of a lottery,
depending on who ends up taking the field - I don't see this being a
good value option. Pick – no play
Wests Tigers to bt Panthers
3 at 1.91
-3
With four losses on the trot it is this game the Tigers must look to
turn it around, against a Penrith side that’s punched above its weight
this season but were shown up quite badly last week after being thrashed
by the Dragons. Tim Sheens has resisted the urge to make wholesale
changes for this match which is a wise move from the master coach as I
have little doubt the side that has taken the field in recent weeks is
good enough to beat any on their day and whether Farah is back or not I
still see this going all the way of the home side who will lift at
Leichhardt Oval. No side likes being held scoreless as the Tigers were
last week, we'll see a big forwards effort here and a more simplified
and effective offence who'll get the job done against a Panthers side
who have three of their stars backing up from origin. Pick – 3 units on
Wests Tigers to win (BEST BET).
Sea Eagles v Roosters
NO PLAY
While Manly are still not close to their 2008 form they have shown big
improvement in their recent outings, particularly around a defence
that's muscling up and making life difficult for opposition attack, they
may not have to call on much of their defensive prowess in this match
though given what the Roosters have shown on attack this season. One
thing that worries me about out of touch teams, and the Roosters are no
different this week, is at what point do they hit the wall and turn
things around, even if only for one match. We've had talk in the media
about 'soul searching' and player/coach meetings that have taken place
this week amongst the Roosters and I will be very surprised if we don't
see a marked improvement from the side that was hammered by the Panthers
as there's enough leadership and quality players in the side to turn the
season around. One really feels they just needed to clear the air and
sort out whatever it is that's been leading to such a lack of enthusiasm
and commitment in their play - this week of action should well have done
that. Unfortunately for the Roosters though they're up against a Manly
side who are on the improve and are very tough to beat at Brookvale Oval
and until I see that change in attitude take place I refuse to go near
them again, it could well be this week but who knows. Pick – no play
Rabbitohs +9.5 v Cowboys
2 at 1.91
-2
Souths up and down nature in 2009 makes tipping their matches more
difficult than most, what we do know though is when they turn up ready
to play they are a very dangerous side and given the blasting I expect
they've received from Jason Taylor following Monday nights loss to the
Raiders I think we'll see a more disciplined and enthusiastic Rabbitohs
outfit here, up against a side they have beaten in their last four
encounters. The Cowboys had the Bye last week and prior to that were
riding high following a comprehensive win over the Knights, led by
Thurston who will again be a heavy influence providing he backs up from
Origin. The Souths Halves of Sutton and Sandow will be the better off
for having played back together last week and after a further weeks
training I expect a big improvement on last weeks effort. I see this
being a closer match than the line from the Bookies suggest, we'll see a
different Souths side in attitude and discipline than that which took
the field on Monday night so watch out Cowboys. Pick – 2 units on Souths
+8.5 or better point start.
Warriors -1.5 v Sharks
2 at 1.91
-2
Both these sides broke from losing streaks last week, with both wins
highlighted by stellar defensive efforts - the Warriors holding Wests
scoreless and the Sharks letting just 10 points in against the Eels,
which could suggest a low scoring arm wrestle here as neither of these
sides has shown much on attack of late either. Out of both these sides
it is realistically only the Warriors that have any sort of show at
making the eight this year and if they are to indeed get there it is
these games they must start to win. The Sharks will take heart from last
weeks win but they are still offering nothing on attack, lacking any
real x-factor within the side, whilst the Warriors have that x-factor in
a number of positions. Warriors to win and cover the narrow margin. Pick
– 2 units on NZ Warriors -2.5 or better point start.
Knights v Eels
NO PLAY
The Knights bounced back following their big loss to the Cowboys to beat
the high-flying Bulldogs last week, doing so without Gidley who they
welcome back for this match against an Eels side that were as
disappointing as the Knights were impressive, going down to the
previously struggling Sharks in front of the Eels faithful. I like a
number of the Knights players who’ve stepped up this season,
particularly DeGois and Mullen, whereas too many Eels players seem to
have rested on their laurels this season, only rising for the odd match.
The lines about right here from the Bookies, the Knights are very tough
to beat at home and you'd expect them to win but the Eels can certainly
play better than they showed last week so it's got the potential to go
down to the wire, best to leave this match alone though. Pick – no play
Titans v Dragons
NO PLAY
The level of consistency the Dragons are playing at this season is
phenomenal and have not shown any signs of lowering the high standards
they've set, which was highlighted with last weeks very comprehensive
win over the Panthers. This is the Titans toughest test at home this
year and given the strong reputation they hold playing at Skilled Park
one would bet against them this week with some trepidation, however,
they have not beaten the Dragons (having lost all 5 encounters) and with
the intensity and accuracy the Dragons continue to show one would bet
against them with even more trepidation! Soward's kicking game has been
second to none and Brett Morris continues to be very unforgiving to any
side that allows him space, but most of all the whole Dragons side has
lifted for each match and have responded better than could be imagined
to Wayne Bennett's coaching style and motivational abilities. There are
arguments each way for both these sides and from our point of view it's
best to leave this match out of the equation. Pick – no play
NRL ROUND TWELVE
Dragons -6.0 v Panthers
2.5 at 1.93
+2.32
The Panthers have lost three of their
stars to Origin whilst the Dragons have lost four. The 2009 Dragons are
a champion team and I expect they won't miss a beat here, and with
players taking the field that have done the damage for them all season
they should make this their fifth win in a row over the Panthers. The
Panthers do not have the same depth of leadership and talent the Dragons
have and will really miss Civoniceva's influence on the field, whilst
the Dragons have no shortage of experienced campaigners who won't miss a
beat this week. Short and sweet - the Dragons are just too strong in the
forwards and way too strong in the backs, they have many more attacking
options than the Panthers and a defence that will be as tough as they've
been all season. Pick – 2.5 units on Dragons -6.5 or better point start.
Eels -5.5 v Sharks
2.5 at 1.92
-2.5
Looking through both the team sheets for
this match you'd be excused for scratching your head trying to put faces
to a lot of the names, let alone trying to figure out each of their
strengths and weaknesses. The Eels are at least looking like they're on
the up (it's a flat gradient) which I can't say for the Sharks whose
lack of attack and paper thin defence is quite simply depressing to
watch. Both these sides lose their best player for this match, Gallen
for the Sharks and Hayne for the Eels. The Eels have at least shown
glimpses of brilliance this season and did well to earn the draw last
week against Souths, I do like the look of their forward pack lined up
against the Sharks and the Halves at least showed some attacking
capabilities last week. I like the home side here to build on that drawn
effort last week and secure a fairly comfortable win over the embattled
Sharkies. Pick – 2.5 units on Eels -6.5 or better point start.
Warriors v Wests Tigers
NO PLAY
The Warriors have owned the Tigers in
recent years, having beaten them in 5 of their last 6 matches, but this
New Zealand side is playing with such a lack of confidence and direction
that for the well attuned sports punter they're almost unbackable. The
Tigers have lost their skipper Farah for this match but coped remarkably
well without him last week in very narrowly losing to the high flying
Broncos, whilst the Warriors have lost their captain Steve Price which
means it is now time for some of the other senior players in the
Warriors line-up to put their hands up. I do like the Warriors to turn
it round here in front of their home fans but like I said, the way
they're playing they are certainly not a safe option. I care about your
wallets and recommend keeping them firmly in your pockets for this
match. Pick – no play.
Bulldogs -2.0 v Knights
3 at 1.92
-3
The Bulldogs this season, along with
St George, are a champion team and not necessarily a team full of
individual stars (although a number of them would certainly not be out
of place playing Origin) which means for this week they're relatively
unaffected by Origin selection (just Hannant out) - which suits us just
fine as they're up against a Knights side who are missing the heart and
soul of their team - Kurt Gidley. The Bulldogs have been playing
refreshingly consistent football in 2009 and with the strength of the
side taking the field here I see no reason why not to get behind them.
Newcastle were average against the Cowboys last week but they have
surprised me with their high level of play in 2009, the key player
behind their run of good form again though has been Gidley and without
him they lose a lot of attacking impetus which is going to hurt against
the very well organised defence of the Bulldogs. Pick – 3 units on
Bulldogs -2.5 or better point start (BEST BET).
Raiders +7.5 v Rabbitohs
2 at 1.83
+1.66
Raiders to bt Rabbitohs
1 at 2.80
+1.8
Souths lose Wing and Crocker to Origin
this week while the Raiders are without their chief playmaker Campese.
The Raiders have faired well against the Bunnies recently having won the
last three encounters, and given they are coming off their best
performance of the season in thrashing the Warriors they will approach
this match with a degree of confidence. The Raiders biggest problem is
lifting their game away from home but I strongly believe that
performance last week will go a long way towards this weeks effort and I
like them to run close to Souths here. Souths are up against a more
impressive attacking outfit (when the Raiders are playing with
confidence - which they are!) than they came across in the draw with the
Eels last week. I like the Raiders to at least get within the point
start on offer. Pick – 2 units on Canberra +7.5 point start and 1 unit
on Raiders to win.
NRL ROUND ELEVEN
Wests Tigers v Broncos
NO PLAY
The Tigers have a few niggling injuries going into this match, not least
of which sees their captain and best player Robbie Farah in doubt, they
have even brought John Skandalis out of retirement to add some
experience to their inexperienced side and when lined up against the
Broncos side the gulf of talent and experience is large. I do expect the
Tigers to lift for what is their 10th anniversary celebration but the
Broncos showed ominous signs last week and with Folau now looking very
much at home in their backline he could well feast on the opposition
defence again but the line on offer is about right here and again
there’s better value matches this round. Pick – no play
Eels v Rabbitohs
NO PLAY
The Rabbitohs showed plenty of ticker last week in clawing their way
back against the Tigers, whilst the Eels go into this match fresh off
yet another comprehensive defeat, this time at the hands of a resurgent
Manly. The Bunnies go into this with by far the better side on paper and
with Michael Crocker having gotten his feet further under the table I
expect them to have far too much firepower. Souths do not have the
strongest of defences but even they shouldn't be too troubled by what
the Eels have to throw at them with an attack led by the inexperienced
Halves combo of Reddy and Robson. Having said this I would still
approach this match with some degree of caution as the lines about right
from the Bookies and the Eels did show against the Cowboys a few weeks
back they're capable of surprising - not a great game to make money on.
Pick – no play
Sharks v Dragons
NO PLAY
Whilst the Sharks still didn't manage to get the win last week against
the Panthers at least they did finally come in for us with the point
start and are at least starting to show some promising signs on attack
but with another slap in the face for the club with news of Maitua’s
indiscretion and probable long-term absence from the NRL along with the
news of their loss of LG sponsorship who knows just what further depth
they could sink to in 2009. The Sharks have won 4 of their last 5 games
against the Dragons but these are two very different sides to years gone
past and the Dragons are playing far too consistently for me to suggest
this will be any other result than a win to them, again though the line
is about right here and I believe there are safer options out there this
weekend. Pick – no play
Storm -3.5 v Bulldogs
2 at 1.90
-2
Just what sort of effect last weeks shocking video ref decision which
cost them the match against the Dragons will have on the momentum of the
Bulldogs will remain to be seen, with a week dominated by 'that
decision' is not what's needed building up to this Storm match, a side
that has beaten them in their last 5 matches by an average winning
margin of 26 points. The Storm looked very sharp in hammering the
Raiders but this is a step up in class and I am confident they showed
enough signs on attack and that characteristic Storm defence of old to
suggest they are about to go on a fairly decent run - starting with this
match. I like the Bulldogs this season, they're tough, gutsy and
consistent but I feel the difference between these sides will be the
game breakers, and there's no shortage of them in the Storm side. This
won't be another 26-pointer but it should be comfortable enough to cover
the narrow margin to the visitors. Pick – 2 units on Storm -2.5 point
start
Roosters +8.0 v Panthers
2.5 at 1.95
-2.5
The Panthers continue to laugh off the pre-season chatter of Wooden
Spoon status and sit at 7th after their win over the Sharks last weekend
whilst the Roosters team doctor needs to start checking his players for
vital organs such as hearts and spines following yet another poor effort
against the Knights, I do however see some glimmer of hope for them this
week against a side they'll approach with a degree of confidence given
their recent history (they've won 6 from last 8 games). The Panthers
lose Waterhouse for this match with Pritchard starting in his place
whilst the Roosters lose Fitzgibbon and Soliola but have very capable
replacements in Shackleton and Aubusson. Defensively both these sides
are pretty average so in what I expect could be another high scorer I am
looking at Pierce/Anasta to finally remind us what they can do and for
the forward pack that's stacked with quality (on paper at least) to
guide the embattled club to some respectability this week, if not with
the win then at least with a nail-biter so I like the point start on
offer from the Bookies. Pick – 2.5 units on Roosters +6.5 or better point start
Raiders to bt Warriors
2 at 1.91
+1.82
It's always tough to split two struggling sides that are both coming off
towelling’s the week before, the Warriors being hammered by the Cowboys
in Auckland whilst the Raiders were thrashed by the Storm in Melbourne.
The Warriors record at Canberra Stadium is awful (7-1), having not won
there since 1997 and I'm confident to back the home side to make it 8-1
and celebrate Joel Monaghan’s 100th match for the Green-Machine in style
with a win. Canberra's starting side have a shot at redemption with an
unchanged line-up named from that which got hammered by the Storm,
whilst the Warriors are less settled with Fien dropped and Moon coming
into Five-Eighth, Ah-Van to Centre and Jesse Royal coming back onto the
bench. With talk of Campese having played himself out of an Origin
jersey I can see him coming up with a huge game. The Raiders are a tough
nut to crack at home and I've not seen anything from the Warriors of
late to suggest they are going to turn around their atrocious record in
Canberra this week. Pick – 2 units on Canberra to win
Titans -1.5 v Sea Eagles
3 at 1.92
-3
The Sea Eagles mini resurgence is about to be temporarily halted here at
the hands of what I strongly expect to be a very determined Titans side
out to halt their annual slide down the table. It's easy to question the
Titans energy and enthusiasm away from home over the last few seasons
but at home they've been twice the side they are away and when both
Bailey and Prince start they are twice the side again, the problem is
getting them both to start in the same match - which they are here!
Manly have not convinced me they're anywhere near back to their 2008
best and I can see the Titans forward pack getting the upper hand and
for Prince to relish his battle with Orford and produce a performance we
know he's overdue for in front of the Skilled Park faithful. Pick – 3
units on Gold Coast -1.5 point start. (BEST BET)
Cowboys -2.0 v Knights
2.5 at 1.91
+2.27
One really has to admire the confidence the Knights are playing with
this year and the obvious camaraderie amongst Brian Smith’s men who come
into this match fresh off a very convincing win over the Roosters,
whilst the Cowboys were equally as impressive in easily beating the
Warriors in Auckland. It is short and sweet from me in this one, I like
the home side to cover the narrow line....Thurston is playing as well as
I've ever seen and the whole side are playing with an ominous confidence
that I've been waiting to see from them all season, they've got the
personnel but have lacked the attitude and I've seen enough to
confidently back them to get the job done this week. Pick – 2.5 units on
Cowboys -4.5 or better point start
NRL ROUND TEN
Dragons v Bulldogs
NO PLAY
This is perhaps the toughest match of 2009
to date for the table topping Bulldogs who have really impressed with a
high intensity and skill accuracy they've managed to maintain on a
consistent basis and they go into this match with the added motivation
of wanting to celebrate El Masri's 300th game for the club with a win.
The Dragons welcome back some heavy artillery to their forward pack in
Creagh and Scott with Priddis also being added to the bench whilst the
Bulldogs are unchanged from the side that beat the Tigers two weeks ago.
The Bulldogs have won 7 of the last 8 clashes between these sides with
the one win to the Dragons (30-0) coming last season. It really is hard
to separate these sides, they are both playing a similar style of
football this season and have both been highly impressive. With the
returning forwards the Dragons have I like them by a whisker but it is
not worth the investment. Pick – no play
Broncos -6.5 v Titans
2 at 1.91
+1.82
This local Derby is always fiercely
contested and given the nature of both of their narrow losses last week
I don't expect this match to be any different. The Titans continue to
struggle to lift their game playing away from home but do traditionally
perform well against their Queensland rivals but with co-captain Bailey
out of this and a question mark over the fitness of Prince, and with
Laffranchi out through suspension, I believe they will really struggle.
The Broncos surrendered a 16-0 lead against the Sea Eagles and whilst
they looked good getting to that point there were worrying signs once
the tide started to turn, with a drop in intensity as the Eagles soared
into the match. These games are always tough to split with honours being
shared two a piece in the last four encounters but without one or both
of Bailey and Prince they will struggle to get the go-forward required
against the solid Broncos defence and points could be at a premium for
the visitors. The Broncos are rightfully favourites and given Bailey and
Laffranchi are out and the question mark over the fitness of the Prince
I am happy to recommend backing the Broncos to overcome the narrow
negative point start. Pick – 2 units on Broncos -6.5 point start
Roosters v Knights
NO PLAY
After yet another loss marked with
ill-discipline and costly errors the Roosters now find themselves second
to last on the table and, despite what Fittler had to say (he was
'pleased with their efforts'...please Freddy..) they need an attitude
transplant and to start playing with much more intensity and desire. The
Knights just held on against the Titans last week in another impressive
effort, particularly from their forward pack who keep laying a winning
foundation and with the Knights backline firing they're not struggling
for points, as they have in previous years. The Roosters have hurt us
this season with efforts falling well short of expectation, and whilst I
love backing sides with known quality to come back fighting after
copping one I am not at all inspired having expected fighting words from
Fittler after the Storm match but getting quite the opposite. Brian
Smith has the Knights playing a very consistent brand of football and on
current form it's hard to see them losing this, I'm not about to totally
right off the Roosters though and don’t feel there are any safe options
here. Pick – no play
Sharks +7.0 v Panthers
2 at 1.92
+1.84
Both these sides go into this clash fresh
off the Bye, which could not have come at a better time for the
struggling Sharks who have had time to reflect on what's been a terrible
start to the season and a chance to regroup, soul search, fine tune, dig
deep - you name it, I expect them to have done it; the Panthers on the
other hand would have been quite happy to have avoided last weeks Bye
given the momentum they were carrying off the back of two wins in a row.
The Sharks have won their last three matches at Penrith Stadium and
whilst I don't usually look into the refereeing side of things
(especially given the new two ref system) it is interesting to note the
Panthers have played ten matches with Jarrod Maxwell officiating and
have lost seven of them whilst the Sharks have played seven under him
and won six of them. The Sharks are languishing at the bottom of the
table but as I've insisted all season we've definitely not yet seen
their best as they do have a side that will cause trouble for a number
of more fancied sides this season; Stuart is a canny coach and will have
used this Bye to their advantage and given they're currently up against
the ropes (having copped a number of severe body blows) it's time to
stop the madness and repay the blind faith I have shown in them most of
the season. This traditional rivalry will be a close fought, low scoring
encounter, I expect a real arm wrestle and whilst either side could get
the win I at least expect the Sharks to get within the point start on
offer. They not only owe their fans but also my readers who have forked
out hard earned cash on them (at my recommendation…I do apologise) -
this is time to start paying back the debt they owe - to society… Pick –
2 units on Cronulla +6.5 or better point start
Warriors v Cowboys
NO PLAY
The Warriors have fallen short of
expectation to date in 2009, especially at home where they've got a two
win two loss record with the two wins coming against the lowly Roosters
and Eels, they will be confident of making it three wins this week
though against a Cowboys side that have been atrocious on the road in
recent times, and with the last seven encounters between these sides all
going in favour of the side playing at home they'll be confident of
celebrating Jerome Ropati's 100th match for the Warriors in style. Last
weeks win to the Cowboys over the Dragons was single-handedly instigated
by their inform captain and Halfback Thurston who the Warriors obviously
have to try and shut down or else they to will suffer from his
rediscovered running game and general confidence on attack. The Warriors
are currently as unpredictable as ever and it would really not surprise
me if they lost this match...or won it by 40 points....you know where
this is going - hold onto your cash! Pick – no play
Sea Eagles v Eels
NO PLAY
Manly finally proved to themselves and
critics that they can indeed beat a top side without injured Fullback
Brett Stewart in running down the Broncos last week, whilst the Eels
come into this off the Bye which followed their best performance of the
season in beating the Cowboys. The Eels are bolstered with the return of
Hindmarsh from suspension whilst the Sea Eagles have lost L'Estrange.
Neither of these sides are a reliable option at the moment and whilst
the Sea Eagles are rightfully firm favourites it takes more than one
swallow to make a Summer and I really don't have any good reason to bet
for or against the line the Bookies have on offer. Pick – no play
Rabbitohs to bt Wests Tigers
3 at 2.15
+3.45
The Bunnies have had their dangerous
Halves partnership broken with the loss of Sutton (broken hand) for this
clash but do welcome into the side Michael Crocker whose influence on
the rest of the Souths season can not be underestimated - a truly
fantastic signing. The Tigers are without impressive Chris Lawrence in
the Centres but do welcome back Benji Marshall into the side that lost
to the Bulldogs two weeks ago. I really liked the look of the Bunnies
goal line defence against the Titans two weeks ago and they should kick
on from there and I really don't feel like they lose a lot on attack
with Wing replacing Sutton at Five-Eighth. The Tigers are a good side
but their attack really does come down to Farah and Marshall, whilst the
Bunnies have a side that poses danger right across the field and I like
them to get one over their traditional rivals here. Pick – 3 units on
Souths to win. (BEST BET)
Storm v Raiders
NO PLAY
The Storm have had utter and total
dominance over the Raiders in recent and not so recent history having
won the last 13 matches played between the two sides and we're not just
talking narrow losses, with the majority of those wins being by a very
comfortable margin. I like how well Finch has slotted in at Five-eighth
for the Storm and showed against the Roosters he's playing with a lot
more confidence that we saw with him at the Eels. Short and sweet for
Monday Night league this week, the lines about right and any result
other than a Storm win would be a real shock. To keep things interesting
you could always look at Inglis to score a try as he's been quiet of
late and I can see him itching for a big performance, as far as we're
concerned though it's a no play. Pick – no play
NRL ROUND NINE
Cowboys -4.5 v Dragons
2 at 1.91
-2
With no less than ten players backing up from Friday night rep footy the
Dragons are going to have their metal well and truly tested here in the
far North Queensland, up against the home side who apart from Thurston
and O'Donnell will come into this match fresh, giving them a massive
advantage. The Cowboys are a better outfit than their record suggests,
the problem lies with their attitude, once they've got that sorted then
it'll be full steam ahead and until then they'll continue to
sporadically put in the odd good performance with this match being one
of them against a side they've beaten in their last three outings. The
key for the Cowboys is Thurston and I don't see him having too many
problems backing up here and with their likely to be a number of players
named in the Dragons side who won't end up taking the field I see the
home side taking advantage. Pick – 2 units on Cowboys -4.5 point start
Knights v Titans
NO PLAY
The Knights continue to turn heads this season with another quality
performance last week in beating the Broncos, playing controlled
football in atrocious conditions, whilst the Titans eventually got the
win over Souths after struggling for much of the match to break the
Bunnies goal line defence. The Titans are yet another side in this
competition who are tough to track from week to week whilst the Knights
have been more consistent but with players from both sides backing up
from Friday night this will unsettle both sides and I see this result as
being somewhat of a lottery. The odds are tempting on the Titans but I
believe there are safer options this week for making money. Pick – no
play
Sea Eagles +6.5 v Broncos
2 at 1.92
+1.84
In my opinion it is this match that will be the defining one for Manly's
season, awful as they have been without star fullback Brett Stewart it's
time we stopped mentioning his name and focus on who they do have - the
bulk of their premiership winning side, with every single one of them
with their backs to the wall and under immense pressure, it is this
match, playing away from home against a top quality side, that they must
perform, it's been building and building and last weeks loss to
Melbourne could be the catalyst for a revival. Both these sides have
players backing up from Friday night rep footy, with Manly's forward
pack and the Broncos backline being most affected. The Sea Eagles have
performed well against the Broncos in recent times winning their last
three encounters, two of which were at Suncorp Stadium. The 2009 Broncos
are a very good outfit but Manly are going to be up for this match and I
believe are going to run them very close, and whilst I wouldn’t be
surprised if they won I’m happy to back them with the point start. Pick
– 2 units on Manly +6.5 point start
Roosters to bt Storm
3 at 2.52
-3
It's weeks like these Brad Fittler can look back with gratitude that
some of his fringe players were overlooked for rep footy selection, not
only does he get a number of quality players starting fresh against the
Storm but he's also assured that they'll each be out to prove a point to
selectors, which could well spell trouble for the Storm. With a number
of Storm players backing up from Friday night this is the perfect chance
for the Roosters, at home, to claim their biggest scalp of the season,
and it's definitely not a chance that will be lost on Fittler who will
have his side ready and waiting to ambush the Storm. The Roosters
bounced back well last week against the Sharks and this weeks match will
be another stepping stone towards getting back in the top eight and off
the back of a dominant forwards effort Pearce and Anasta will have
plenty to work with from the outset, securing the win in a dominant
display. Pick – 3 units on Roosters to win (BEST BET)
NRL ROUND EIGHT
Sea Eagles v Storm
NO PLAY
This is a tough match to get an angle on
and even though it features both of last years Grand Finalists neither
side is playing even close to the level that got them to that position
in 2008. The Storm will be pleased with Brett Finches influence coming
on against the Warriors, but are still lacking the attacking qualities
we've become accustomed to, whilst the Sea Eagles put in another sub-par
performance in losing to the Cowboys, further fuelling discussion around
their inabilities without star fullback Brett Stewart which is something
they will be desperately hoping to put to bed in the coming weeks,
starting with this match against the Storm. Neither side have filled me
with any great confidence to back here, I do get the feeling one of
these sides is ready to explode with a scintillating display of their
capabilities but not this week. Pick – no play
Eels v Cowboys
NO PLAY
As a punter you've always got to be on the
lookout for teams who are ready to bounce back, usually following a
defeat (or series of defeats) as they look to restore pride and passion
in the jersey, but looking at this Eels outfit on paper and seeing how
badly they've played lately there's absolutely nothing to suggest
they'll even get close to the Cowboys here. The Eels certainly had
scoring opportunities against the Broncos last week but are lacking any
real confidence, leading to errors and poor judgement and it was not
long before the defence opened up and heads dropped which will spell
trouble against a Cowboys side who look to have rediscovered some of
their touch, with the Thurston and Bowen combination leading the attack
against Manly. Unfortunately the Bookies have got the line about right
here, the Cowboys are still questionable on the road and have lacked
intensity at times, they will have to be at an all time low to go down
to this struggling Eels side though. Pick – no play
Titans -6.5 v Rabbitohs
3 at 1.92
+2.76
The Titans welcome back Bailey and
Rogers for this clash and are going to be a much tougher outfit this
week than we saw Monday night against the Panthers and I expect them to
put the thin Souths defensive line to the sword, running out comfortable
victors. Having let in a number of soft tries against the worst
attacking side in the competition last week, the Rabbitohs are going to
really have their hands full against the class of the Titans, who we all
know grow another leg playing on the Gold Coast. Bailey's return will be
a big boost to the forwards who missed his leadership last week, whilst
Rogers return adds another dimension to an already dangerous
attack....this is going to be one way traffic - Russ Crowe’s Bunnies are
going to get flattened here. Pick – 3 units on Gold Coast -6.5 point
start (BEST BET)
Sharks v Roosters
NO PLAY
Ummm..urhh..geeez....what
can I say, the Sharks have really really burnt me this season, and apart
from maybe Ricky Stuart there is no man on this planet more disappointed
in them than me....I fully accept all criticism as a result of my
backing them and only hope to make up for this in the remainder of the
season with plenty of money-earning picks. Both these sides are
struggling, the Sharks more than any in the competition, and both were
completely uninspiring last week, the Sharks going down to Souths and
the Roosters getting hammered by the Dragons. Of the two sides it's the
Roosters who offer more on attack (with last weeks match an exception)
and they’ve at least shown some spinal fortitude this year but to be
honest my heart sinks just thinking about recommending my readers back
either of these sides this week....this is a forum to make money through
educated and well thought out picks…(with the occasional
blunder…)...nobody could say this match is a wise investment either way.
Pick – no play
Knights v Broncos
NO PLAY
The Knights have won just once in their
last eight encounters against the Broncos, who continued their
impressive start to the season with another comfortable win over the
Eels last week and will be looking to celebrate captain Darren Lockyer’s
300th match for the club in style here. The Knights have plenty of
firepower returning for this match with Simpson, Uate and MacDougall all
back from injury, again though this is not a match that inspires me to
recommend you reach for the hammer and crack into the piggy bank, both
sides are playing good footy and whilst the Broncos have looked the
better of the two the fact this match is in Newcastle and the home side
are at near full strength the playing field is fairly even and the
result in the balance - at a push I'd say the Broncos by a whisker but
this is not a good money-maker as it could go either way. Pick – no play
Raiders -3.5 v Panthers
2 at 1.91
-2
The Panthers were impressive in downing
the Titans on Monday night, highlighted by a great performance from
Sammut, whilst Walsh seemed to add another dimension on attack slotting
in at Halfback, they will need to carry that same intensity into this
match if they're any show against a hurting Raiders side who have the
wood on the Panthers, having won 7 of the last 8 encounters, including a
74-12 thrashing here last season. The Raiders will have been working
hard on their gaol-line defence this week after they let in some soft
Bulldogs tries and I expect will be more than up for this clash, knowing
these are the games they must win if they’re any chance of making the
top eight this season, look for a lift in intensity from the home side
and a strong defence to match an equally strong offence. Pick – 2 units
on Raiders -3.5 point start
Dragons v Warriors
NO PLAY
What a great effort from the Dragons last
week totally eclipsing the hapless Roosters in every facet of the game
led by a perfect defensive effort and with Soward the in form halfback
in the competition they look every bit the joint competition favourites
at this stage of the season. The Warriors welcome Fullback Wade McKinnon
back into the side which drew with the Storm last week, moving the very
impressive Hohia to the bench; the Warriors forwards have continued to
work hard all season, non more so than Michael Luck who made an amazing
74 tackles against the Storm, and they will need to bring every bit of
that energy to this match if they're to be any chance of beating the
Dragons for the first time at WIN Stadium. The Bookies have it about
right here, depending on what Warriors side shows up they are in with a
real chance, but if the Dragons play to the same intensity as last week
then even the Warriors A+ game won't be enough. Pick – no play
Bulldogs v Wests Tigers
NO PLAY
The Bulldogs continue on their merry march
this season, notching yet another win last week over the Raiders whilst
the Tigers got out of jail due to some Benji magic late in their match
against Newcastle. Kimmorley is guiding the Dogs attack brilliantly and
his leadership in conjunction with Andrew Ryan is proving invaluable to
the side with a consistency of play not seen at this club for a few
seasons. The Dogs are favourites here and the line is about right, they
will put in a bad performance sooner or later but I can't see it being
this week. Pick – no play
NRL ROUND SEVEN
Broncos v Eels
NO PLAY
The Eels freefall continued last week with
their attitude and commitment being brought into question by coach
Daniel Anderson following their mauling by the Bulldogs, and with the
Broncos machine looking like it's about to crank it up a gear this
week's trip to Suncorp Stadium is already looking like one to forget,
unless the Eels pick their bottom lip off the ground and get some pride
back into their performance. I expect this to be a comfortable win to
the Broncos, but given the large spread from the Bookies I don’t think
there’s any real value, expect a big game from Lockyer as he sets about
answering some of his critics, beware the Eels! Pick – no play
Sharks to bt Rabbitohs
2 at 2.40
-2
The Sharks are now under an enormous
amount of pressure as they sit bottom of the table with just the one win
from six matches, and after their heavy loss to the Cowboys last week on
top of an impotent attack Ricky Stuart now has cause for concern
surrounding their defence. The Rabbitohs also go into this match backing
up from a poor display against Manly, their worst of the season, which
will ensure they're not complacent going into this match. Cronulla have
the more experienced halves pairing in Barrett and Sinclair and whilst
they’ve had limited effect thus far they’ll have to rate themselves a
good show at getting one over their younger and more fancied opposites.
With their captain Paul Gallen returning to the side the Sharks will be
a much tougher outfit and I expect him to lead the forwards in a
dominant display, I have backed them already this season and been
bitten, but something is screaming at me to give them another chance,
this is a good side and I believe they are going to wake from their
slumber this week and finally give their fans something to cheer about.
Pick – 2 units on Sharks to win
Roosters to bt Dragons
3.5 at 2.47
-3.5
The form going into this traditional
Anzac Day clash is somewhat of a turnaround from last season, which saw
the Roosters flying high and the Dragons really struggling, this year
however see's the opposite with the Roosters off to a below par start to
the season and the Dragons doing well. The Roosters are a better side
than their 2-4 season start suggests, with one of the best halves
pairing in the competition and a forward pack littered with talent (and
a point to prove to origin selectors) and I expect this match to be a
turning point, as it was for the Dragons last season. Soward continued
to impress for the Dragons even in a losing effort last week against the
Knights but I’m not totally convinced of his partnership with Hornby and
their ability to consistently trouble a well organised defence, which is
what I expect the Roosters to be here. Pick – 3.5 units on Roosters to
win (BEST BET)
Storm -6.0 v Warriors
2.5 at 1.94
-2.5
The Storm will look to rally themselves
with a double dose of motivation for this clash, firstly to pick
themselves up after a slow start (by their standards) to the season
after another misfiring offensive effort against the Tigers on Monday
night, and to gain some revenge on the Warriors after their shock finals
defeat last season, a match that will still be firmly imbedded in their
memories. The Warriors were dreadful in the first half last week, with
error after error and offered very little on defence, however once they
got on the board in the second half and the crowd got behind them they
stepped up, helped by the Roosters inability to put score points of
their own, they are not going to have such luxuries this week though.
The Storm will have been working overtime on their attack this week and
I expect as the game wears on they'll start to find gaps in the Warriors
defence and for their speedsters to make the visitors pay. This will be
a reminder to all – do not write off the Storm!! Pick – 2.5 units on
Storm -6.0 point start.
Cowboys -3.0 v Sea Eagles
2 at 1.98
+1.96
The obvious talking point around Manly
this week is the news of Brett Stewarts injury and the subsequent stats
that have emerged around Manly's very average win/loss ration when he's
not in the side and one only has to look at the last two weeks to see
the difference he does make to the Sea Eagles. The Cowboys on the other
hand finally showed some life last week against Cronulla and will be
hoping to improve on their abysmal recent record at Dairy Farmers
Stadium off the back of that performance, with both Burns and Thurston
enjoying their best games of the season, with great support in the
forwards from the likes of O'Donnell and Tronc. The Sea Eagles will be
out to prove they are capable of winning without their star Fullback but
are going to struggle to match the Cowboys around the fringes as the
home side will look to do a Manly and speed the match up. I like the
home side to reward their loyal fans with a good win over the defending
premiers here. Pick – 2 units on Cowboys -3.5 or better point start
Raiders v Bulldogs
NO PLAY
The two matches between these sides last
season went all one way with the Raiders who racked up 50 points against
the Bulldogs on both occasions; however the 2009 version of the Bulldogs
looks to be a much more disciplined and determined outfit than that of
2008 and there’s no way the Raiders will have it that easy here. The
Bulldogs are without their speedster Josh Morris in the Centres but
welcome back work horse David Stagg whilst the Raiders have named the
youngster McCrone to cover the injured Herbert at Halfback, a change
that will mean added responsibility on attack for Campese. The Raiders
are very tough to beat at home and off the back of last weeks narrow
loss will be looking to bounce back; whilst the Bulldogs continue to
impress, it’s hard to split these two and best to sit this one out. Pick
– no play
Wests Tigers v Knights
NO PLAY
Both these sides go into this match off
the back of impressive wins, with the Knights coming back to beat the
Dragons whilst the Tigers put in their best defensive performance of the
season in holding out the Storm. The Knights are continuing to get
plenty of value from Isaac De Gois who has been tireless on attack and
defence and whenever him and Gidley chime in together near the
opposition line there are points on offer and they will really test this
Tigers defensive line whilst the same can be said for Marshall and Farah
who are running the Tigers offence well, particularly when they are both
involved in the phase. This should be a great match with the two sides
hard to split. Pick – no play
Panthers v Titans
NO PLAY
There's no doubt the Panthers have looked
a much more competitive side so far this year than in 2008, but they go
into this match off the back of a 20 point loss to a Broncos side that
certainly weren't at their best, which certainly does not have me racing
to back them against the classy Titans. The Titans could be without
their co-captain Bailey for this match but have no other injury concerns
whilst the Panthers have stood down their Hooker Iosefa and have lost
centre Brad Tighe to injury. The Panthers are a tough proposition at
home and should be better than last weeks effort, the Titans showed in
Melbourne/Townsville some weeks ago they can pull out the big game away
from home; for our purposes though there's no value here, the lines
about right, the Titans are strongest on paper but let's wait till they
prove themselves a little more away from the Gold Coast before we start
throwing cash behind them. Pick – no play
NRL ROUND SIX
Broncos -3.5 v Panthers
2.5 at 1.91
+2.27
After a narrow loss to Melbourne away from home the Panthers will
approach this match with a degree of confidence whilst the Broncos will
be looking for an improvement on their performance against the Roosters,
knowing they can play much better. Even though the Panthers have
performed well over recent weeks I just don’t believe they’ve got enough
firepower, especially when you compare their halves pairing of Sammut
and Graham with Wallace and Lockyer, and it only gets worse for the
Panthers when we look further out wide with Hodges, Folau and Hunt all
likely to cause serious concern for the home side. Comments made by
Brisbane coach Henjak during the week has me satisfied the Broncos will
be on top of their game for this match and I expect them to have a
comfortable win. Pick – 2.5 units on Brisbane -4.5 or better point start
Titans -8.5 v Raiders
3.5 at 2.00
-3.5
Both these sides are backing up after courageous away wins last week,
Canberra over the Sharks and Gold Coast over the Cowboys. Taking a look
at recent matches between these two sides it makes for very interesting
reading, with the home side completely dominating the last four
encounters with an average winning margin of 32 points and I see this
match heading in a similar fashion with the full strength Titans outfit
being too good for the Raiders, and after expecting a larger margin to
been set by the Bookies I am happy to recommend backing the home side
with the negative point start. Pick – 3.5 units on Titans -8.5 point
start. (BEST BET)
Dragons v Knights
NO PLAY
Both these sides have performed admirably thus far in 2009 and both
enter this match on a high following wins but of the two sides it’s the
Dragons that have impressed the most, leading the competition in defence
and showing an all round maturity under Wayne Bennett that now has them
as joint favourites to win the competition. The Bookies have the line
about right here - with the Dragons at home and playing excellent footy
they’re rightfully favourites and barring complacency should be too
strong for the Knights, this is not a good betting match however. Pick –
no play
Rabbitohs v Sea Eagles
NO PLAY
As expected last week the Sea Eagles bounced back to winning ways led by
a brilliant return from Brett Stewart the win was not quite as
convincing as I’d expected though and they’ve still got a way to go to
get back to their best, whilst it’s hard to get a gauge on the Rabbitohs
loss to the Bulldogs after the match was played in horrible conditions
which led to an error ridden match. I expect both these sides offence to
function better this week resulting in a high scoring match; I am a
little surprised at the short price on Manly, playing away from home
after just their first win of the season against a Souths side who have
looked sharp in 2009, but the Sea Eagles are a quality side and I expect
will bury a side in the near future, whether it’s this week who knows.
Pick – no play
Warriors v Roosters
NO PLAY
With the much needed return of their captain Steve Price and human
wrecking ball Manu Vatuvai plus their good recent record over the
Roosters the Warriors have understandably been installed as favourites
for this match but with the highs and lows we’ve already seen from the
Roosters season it does not make good sense to bet against them making
this tougher than expected for the Warriors. Both these sides are
brimming with talent and both find themselves in a position on the table
they are not pleased with. The Warriors have shown a lack of patience
and execution over the last three weeks and with their rudder, Steve
Price, now back should play more like the side we saw in the first two
weeks, just whether it’s enough against this unpredictable and talented
Roosters side we’ll watch and see. Pick – no play
Sharks v Cowboys
NO PLAY
What a disappointment both these sides have been in 2009. The Cowboys
have such a talented side but are playing without passion and desire,
whilst the Sharks are suffering a similar fate - they’re easily the
worst attacking side in the competition and don’t share the same talent
as the Cowboys though so they make losing look even worse. I was left
dumbfounded and almost speechless after Ricky Stuart commended his lads
following yet another loss last week - at home to a Canberra side
that’ll be lucky to make the top eight in 2009 - Ricky was proud of
them...they blimmin well lost by 10 points!!!....anyway, either side
could win this, it’s being played in Adelaide so no great ‘home’
advantage to the Sharks, best to put your wallet away as both these
sides need to prove they’ve got a spine before I’ll recommend any of my
readers back either of them again in the near future. Pick – no play
Eels v Bulldogs
NO PLAY
With the Brett Finch drama now behind them the Eels would have had a
week of clear preparation for this match with a chance to fine tune
their new halves combination of Mateo and Robson; the Bulldogs on the
other hand will be hoping to carry on their momentum after another gutsy
victory over Souths. I’ve been impressed with the Dogs outfit of 2009,
they look hungry and well drilled, with a highly committed defence and
with Kimmorley leading the attack look to have sorted out their
offensive woes from 2008. The Eels have won the last four matches played
against the Dogs but I just don’t know if they’ve got enough points in
them currently and will struggle against this tight Bulldogs defence, it
could be a little early to write them off though. The Dogs are
favourites for this and the line is about right Pick – no play
Wests Tigers v Storm
NO PLAY
The Tigers have an attack that has worried and will worry a number of
defences in 2009 but unfortunately for them they’ve got a defence that
will be worrying their coach at the moment, and no doubt Tim Sheens will
be working overtime looking for a quick fix against the Storm this week.
The Storm came away with the win last week in a much closer match than
was expected at home against the Panthers and will be looking for
improvement, with their coach Craig Bellamy admitting they’ve got to
adjust better to the pace of the match the two referee’s have brought to
it. Again the Bookies have the line about right here, the Storm are the
more complete outfit but the Tigers are unpredictable and will need to
be at their best to get the win, or even make it close. Pick – no play
NRL ROUND FIVE
Roosters to bt Broncos
2 at 2.66
-2
The Broncos have owned the Roosters in
Sydney over recent years, winning their last six in a row there, they go
into this match after a disappointing loss to the Dragons though, their
first of the season. The Roosters defied the odds and hammered a woeful
Eels side last week, doing so without a number of key players, two of
whom – Mason and Myles - they welcome back for this match and I expect
the suspension to have done their motivation a world of good. Despite
their poor recent record against the Broncos I am tipping the Roosters
to get up for this match, after a relatively tumultuous week last week
they came out with a performance over the Eels that was full of
character, and with the forwards leading the way I expect Anasta and
Pierce to pepper the Bronco defence. A number of these Roosters have a
point to prove to themselves and their fans, this is the perfect match
to really state their 2009 credentials. Pick – 2 units on Roosters to
win
Eels v Dragons
NO PLAY
The Eels were awful last week against the
Roosters right across the park and it seems Daniel Anderson has had
enough of the misfiring offence and has made the decision to nudge Finch
out the door, which I don't believe is a bad idea as during his time at
the Eels he's not produced, on a consistent basis, the type of game they
would have expected from him for the money they've forked out. I know
I've had enough of the Eels big name side consistently underperforming,
and I don't even support them, so good on Daniel Anderson, hopefully he
puts some of the other big note players on notice also. Anyway, back to
this match, the Dragons looked brilliant against the Broncos, I just
can't see them producing as clinical of an effort again this week; this
is a good one to stay away from as just how the Eels will back up after
their shocker last week and the axing of Finch is hard to say. Pick – no
play
Sharks -1.5 v Raiders
2 at 2.02
-2
Pathetic – this sums up the Sharks
performance last week, and after I recommended you all get on them
against the Bulldogs I was left feeling a complete Goose (not
literally..) and just when I thought my blood pressure couldn’t get any
higher the Sharks (who were more like Yellow-Bellied Flounders) made
another stupid error…anyway, apologies for anyone who took my
recommendation on them. The Sharks have lost their captain Paul Gallen
(suspended) for this match but do welcome back Barrett to help their
misfiring offence and his pairing with Seymour could be what the doctor
ordered. The Sharks have won their last four against the Raiders,
winning each of the last two matches at Shark Park by 26 points and my
instincts tell me this is going to be a decent victory to the Sharks,
despite suspensions and recent poor form. The Raiders don’t travel well
and when their attitude and intensity is not 100% they run the risk of
being completely shut out of matches. Pick – 2 units on Sharks -1.5
point start
Storm -11.5 v Panthers
2.5 at 1.91
-2.5
The Panthers head to Melbourne for what is
certainly the toughest challenge of their 2009 season to date, but do so
off the back of two straight wins, whilst the Storm were rocked last
week by the Titans, which means bad news for the Panthers. Without
wanting to take too much credit away from the Panthers their win against
Manly was more a case of the least worst side on the day won (you know
what I mean, they both played terrible footy) and last weeks score line
did not reflect the overall closeness of the match, with this in mind
I'm basically saying they're not in the same league as the Storm and I
expect will get comprehensively outplayed in this match. I can't think
of the last time the Storm lost back to back matches in Melbourne, with
a loss there generally spelling trouble for the next week’s opposition.
The Storm are going to be way to strong in nearly every facet of this
match, the Panthers will struggle to breach what will be a very urgent
defence and with the speed and talent the home side have throughout
their ranks I see them coming away with a comprehensive victory here.
Pick – 2.5 units on Storm -11.5 point start
Cowboys v Titans
NO PLAY
North Queensland were horrid in the first
half last week, none more so than Thurston who was directly involved in
conceding at least two of the Canberra tries, but back on home turf and
up against one of his main rivals for the Queensland Origin jersey I
expect him to perform much better this week. The Titans were excellent
in downing the Storm in Melbourne and with Prince back for them this
week they will be filled with confidence going into this Queensland
derby. If you'd asked me two weeks ago who was going to win this I'd
have said the Cowboys without hesitation, but apart from their win over
the Tigers they've generally underperformed, with worrying echoes of
last season. We should see Thurston taking on the line a bit more this
week but this shouldn't surprise the Titans who'll be ready for what the
Cowboys have to offer. The Cowboys will be a lot better than last week
but with a full strength side at their disposal the Titans will be more
than up for this and it really could go either way. Pick – no play
Knights v Warriors
NO PLAY
Still without their captain Steve Price
and coming off their second successive loss this match could spell more
tough times for the Warriors against a Knights side that look like
they’re hitting their stride after a comprehensive display against
Manly. The Warriors have won their last three against the Knights and on
paper certainly have a side capable of making it a fourth but they've
not inspired me the last two weeks and with the Knights winning their
first match in 2009 at Energy Australia Stadium so comprehensively it
would be foolish of me to recommend going against the home side, that's
not to say they'll definitely win, it's just saying this match is not a
good money maker as both these sides have somewhat of a Jekyll and Hyde
nature. Pick – no play
Sea Eagles -8.0 v Wests Tigers
3.5 at 1.93
+3.25
Come the final whistle this Sunday
loyal Manly fans will be on the Brookvale Oval embankment soaking up the
reflective glory following their sides thumping of the Tigers, following
a performance befitting their talent and experience, with the return of
Stewart and Lyon galvanising the team - this is how I see this match
going. I've seen this time and time again with good sides that get off
to bad starts, they hit a point where enough is enough and explode in a
match, I believe that time is now and it's the Tigers who are about to
bear the brunt, and as we've seen already this season, once the Tigers
get behind their heads can drop and the defensive line opens up like the
Red Sea. I expect Manly to dominate nearly every facet of this match
from the opening whistle. Pick – 3.5 units on Manly -8.0 point start
(BEST BET)
Rabbitohs to bt Bulldogs
2 at 2.00
-2
Despite being behind in the possession and
field position stats last week the Rabbitohs showed plenty of guts in
beating the Warriors in Auckland, with Talanoa having a blinder; whilst
the Dogs win over the Sharks sees them sitting pretty at fifth, despite
being stripped two competition points. It's hard to split these sides,
they're both performing above expectations in 2009 and both have hard
working forward packs who basically cancel each other out in this, it's
in the backs though that I see a slight edge to the Rabbitohs, with
Sandow and Sutton orchestrating opportunities for the likes of Best,
Merritt and Talanoa to finish off. Even though this is being played at
the Bulldogs ‘home ground’, ANZ Stadium will be filled with Souths fans
buoying on their side to remain at the top of the table, and I think
they’ll get what they want, but it won’t be by much. Pick – 2 units on
Rabbitohs to win
NRL ROUND FOUR
Dragons +6.5 v Broncos
2.5 at 1.85
+2.12
Dragons to bt Broncos
1 at 2.75
+1.75
The return of Hodges for this match pushes Folau out to the wing and
gives the Broncos yet another weapon to their armoury, which won’t have
done St Georges chances of winning this match any good, especially
considering they’re without the injured Matt Cooper. The Dragons
defensive effort in beating the Sharks last week was excellent and will
need to step up another gear for this match and while the loss of Cooper
is a blow I can only see positives for the Dragons attack out of Wayne
Bennett moving Hornby to Fullback and starting Head at Halfback. The
Dragons have a phenomenal recent record over the Broncos, winning their
last seven encounters, four of which were played in Brisbane, and with
master coach Wayne Bennett knowing most of the strengths and weaknesses
of these Broncos players I expect his input will prove to be the
difference between the sides. Bennett recently masterminded the Kiwis
victory over the Kangaroos on this very ground and will again be out to
get one over a team he’s coached in the past. Pick – 2.5 units on
Dragons +6.5 point start and 1 unit on Dragons to win
Roosters v Eels
NO PLAY
The Roosters chances of bouncing back after their disappointing display
against the Tigers last week have been dented with the suspension of key
forwards Myles and Mason, and with Minichiello also out the side has
lost a large chunk of their experience, not too mention game breakers.
The Eels snuck through last week against a determined Raiders side and
while coach Daniel Anderson will be happy with the win he’ll be a little
concerned with the lack of points coming from his side, with the halves
pairing of Finch and Hayne not offering the answers he may have hoped
for. This is tough to call as just how the Roosters cope in the face of
adversity will be the telling factor, they showed against Canberra they
have the ability to bounce back strongly after a big loss but without
Minichiello, Myles and Mason could find they’re lacking in personnel to
break this hardened Eels outfit. Pick – no play
Panthers v Wests Tigers
NO PLAY
Both these sides had good wins last week, Wests convincingly over the
Roosters and the Panthers scrapped by over Manly, of the two sides
however it was the Tigers that impressed the most with an attack that
looks like it will cause plenty of worry for opposition defensive lines,
led well by Marshall at halfback. I imagine the Panthers attack, which
looked awful at times against Manly, will function better with the new
Halves pairing of Sammut and Graham, as Lewis did not look comfortable
as a chief playmaker and will be more dangerous at Lock without the
added pressure. The Tigers still have the far superior offense but given
they've run hot and cold this past fortnight I just don't feel
altogether comfortable recommending my loyal readers risk their hard
earned cash on backing them away from home against a Penrith side who've
just beaten the defending premiers. Pick - no play
Titans +14.0 v Storm
2.5 at 1.92
+2.3
In the absence of Prince last week the Titans got by but not altogether
convincingly against the Bulldogs, this week however is the true test of
the clubs character playing the mighty Storm at Olympic Park. The Storm
brushed aside the Cowboys last week and in doing so showed they've lost
nothing of their premiership credentials from previous seasons, I do
however feel the Titans will step up to the mark here and whereas in
previous seasons I'd be expecting a convincing Storm win, the core of
this Titans side have been together for a few seasons now and know that
if they're to state their own premiership credentials it's matches like
this one, without their star halfback, that they need to at the very
least compete for 80 minutes in. The Bookies have rightfully installed
the home side as hot favourites but it's with the point start I'm
interested in and feel the Titans have the talent and the metal to make
this close. Pick – 2.5 units on Titans +13.5 or better point start
Rabbitohs to bt Warriors
2 at 3.00
+4
What a difference a couple of weeks has made for the Warriors, after
flying high the first two rounds they’ve been somewhat grounded by last
weeks loss to the Broncos and the season ending injury to star Centre
Brett Tate, and with Steve Price also gone from this match the Warriors
will be up against it. The Rabbitohs finally clicked into gear last week
after a slow start against Newcastle and have an attack that, while
still ironing out a few issues, will have the Warriors on their toes,
especially with Wesser and Merritt back for this match. The loss of
Price is a huge blow for the home side and will be telling, he is the
Rudder that guides this team and without his on-field leadership we
could see the ill discipline of the Warriors of old creep in, especially
if they go behind early. Man for man I like the Bunnies in this one,
they won in Auckland last year with a side that wasn’t as strong as this
one and I believe will repeat the effort here. Pick – 2 units on
Rabbitohs to win.
Sharks +4.5 v Bulldogs
3.5 at 1.87
-3.5
Sharks to bt Bulldogs
1.5 at 2.75
-1.5
One thing you’ve got to admire about Ricky Stuart, more so than any
other coach in the NRL, he does not take losing lightly, he absolutely
detests it, and with the Sharks now sitting at one win and two losses
for 2009, he will be working around the clock to turn around their
fortunes, with the main focal point being their lack of attacking
prowess, with defence not being an issue. The Bulldogs were there own
worst enemies last week against the Titans, but have shown themselves to
be a much improved outfit to that of 2008, with Kimmorley running the
attack well. This is short and sweet, I expect the Sharks to throw
everything including the kitchen sink into this match and come away with
the win, they have a defence that will really frustrate the Bulldogs and
Seymour (who’ll be looking for redemption with a huge game) back at
Halfback should provide another string to their bow on attack, paving
the way for a Sharks win or at the very least a close match, making the
point start very inviting indeed. Pick – 3.5 units on Sharks +4.5 point
start (BEST BET) and 1.5 units on Sharks to win
Knights v Sea Eagles
NO PLAY
The news just doesn’t get any better for the defending premiers with
Jamie Lyon ruled out for a few weeks and still not a win on the board
for 2009, they have only themselves to blame though after an error
ridden game against Penrith last week. Newcastle showed plenty early on
against Souths but their defence faltered and once that happened the
attack followed, looking pedestrian towards the end. Short and sweet for
this, Manly are going to bury a team in the near future but without
Stewart still and now Lyon it’s not good logic to recommend a wager on
them away from home, against a side that beat them in the corresponding
match last season, but then again it’s equally as bad logic to bet
against them. Pick – no play
Cowboys -2.0 v Raiders
2 at 1.91
-2
The Raiders showed an improved defensive effort last week but still
narrowly went down to the Eels in a low scoring encounter, whilst the
Cowboys were upset in Townsville by the Storm. Short and sweet – the
Bookies have gone for a narrow margin which I believe is much too tight
- the Raiders will obviously be desperate for the win but they’ll have
to wait another week as Neil Henry will have his Cowboys side fired up
after last week and desperate to get one over his old side, there is a
gulf of experience and talent between these sides in key positions and
if the Cowboys come away with anything other than a win that covers the
narrow margin I will be very surprised. Pick – 2 units on Cowboys -2.5
or better
point start.
NRL ROUND THREE
Roosters to bt Wests Tigers
2 at 1.67
-2
Tough match first up to get a feel for,
both sides have been embarrassed once so far in 2009, and both have a
win over the Raiders. With a relative mix of inexperience these sides
are fairly even out wide, from no. 6 to no. 13 however I feel the
Roosters are stronger (with the exception of Farah at Hooker) and the
confidence shot after last weeks convincing win could have them getting
off to a similarly strong start to last year. The pairing of Marshall
and Morris are still a work in progress for the Tigers and will get
better as the season progresses but need more time. The Roosters are
without Minichiello at the back which is a blow, but have good cover in
Perrett, who I expect will be targeted by the Tigers. I believe the
Roosters will ride the wave of confidence from last week and win this
match. Pick – 2 units on Sydney Roosters to win
Titans -3.5 vs Bulldogs
4 at 1.97
+3.88
Titans 13+ vs Bulldogs
1 at 3.30
-1
In the first half of the 2008 season the
Titans made Skilled Park into a graveyard for visiting sides, growing
another leg in front of the home fans and as long as co-captains Prince
and Bailey stay fit, along with other core members of the side then I
see many great returns both home and away for this side. The Bulldogs
have impressed with two wins from two but after being stripped of last
weeks points (they need to bring back the Abacas) will have had the wind
taken out of their sails somewhat, which isn’t a good thing when
approaching your toughest match to date. The Titans will be too strong
in key areas here and I expect a dominant display off the back of their
halves pairing of Prince and Rogers. I expect this will be a big win to
a rampant Titans side that have plenty of points in them. Pick – 4 units
on Titans -4.5 points start (BEST BET) and 1 unit on Titans 13+
Warriors v Broncos
NO PLAY
In previous years this would be a danger
game for the Warriors, riding on a wave of confidence following their
second win of the season, having beaten Manly last week off the back of
some Stacey Jones magic. The Broncos have also gone two from two thus
far in `09, with two very narrow victories, but will regard this as
their toughest test thus far. The Warriors do have a host of injuries,
one of which is wrecking ball Manu Vatuvai, but are rightfully
favourites on home soil; the Bookies have the line about right though
and this is a good match to sit back and see which side will further
strengthen their credentials for glory in 2009. Pick – no play
Raiders +8.5 vs Eels
2 at 1.92
+1.84
It appears that 2009 could be the year
when the Eels become contenders and lost the pretenders tag they’ve
carried over recent seasons, with Daniel Anderson introducing an
attitude amongst the side that’s been lacking, which was typified in
their solid and uncompromising defence in last weeks victory over
Souths. The Raiders season has started with a whimper – unforced errors,
penalties and a leaky defence all characterising their first two
encounters, but this is not the time to be writing them off as they
showed in 2008 they lack nothing in character and it is in this match I
believe that will come out, making for a close contest. I expect works
been done on the defensive issues this week and with the Eels attack
still finding its feet this could be a relatively low scoring encounter,
making the point start to the Raiders seem rather attractive. Pick – 2
units on Canberra Raiders +8.5 point start
Cowboys v Storm
NO PLAY
In hammering the Tigers last week the
Cowboys reminded us what a gifted attacking side they are when not
hampered by injuries and under new coach Neil Henry look like the real
deal in 2009. The Storm have enjoyed a run of four straight wins over
the Cowboys and will have to be at their very best to continue the
streak. With Thurston and Bowen on the field the Storm defence will be
anticipating their two man plays which could create opportunities in
other areas, whilst Inglis and Cronk will provide the main target for
the Cowboy defence. This promises to be a very entertaining match; at
home I’m leaning slightly towards the Cowboys but hold onto your wallets
as this one could go either way. Pick – no play
Rabbitohs v Knights
NO PLAY
After all the hype and over-kill
surrounding Souths first match of the season they were under immense
pressure last week and struggled, going down to a committed Eels
defensive effort, whilst Newcastle showed great commitment and urgency
in downing the Sharks. Newcastle have enjoyed playing Souths over recent
times winning eight of their last ten encounters, however this Bunnies
side is their strongest in some years and once their halves pairing of
Sutton and Sandow start playing with consistency then they’ve got a side
to cause some real damage, as we saw in round one. Newcastle are without
the injured Mullen but Scott Dureau showed last week for sixty minutes
that he’s a more than capable replacement, there will however be more
pressure on him starting in this match. Souths are the favourites and I
expect them to win this but by what margin who knows, best to sit this
one out. Pick – no play
Dragons v Sharks
NO PLAY
This Dragons outfit have shown over the
last two weeks they are the real deal in `09, whilst the Sharks really
are struggling, with vital stats making for bad reading, something Ricky
Stuart will hope his side address in this match. Short and sweet, this
will be a hard slog and whilst the Dragons have more to offer on attack
the Sharks could turn this into a low scoring arm wrestle, which is what
they like, the Bookies have the line right in this and there’s no value.
Pick – no play
Sea Eagles v Penrith
NO PLAY
Panthers Manly did not play badly last
week in losing to an impressive Warriors outfit and while many are
suggesting things are really not good at the club following the early
season off-field incidents, they improved considerably last week and I
expect them to move up another gear this week against the Panthers. I
was hoping the line for this would be a little tighter but the Bookies
obviously share my sentiment that this Manly side are ready to click,
whether it’s a week or two premature let’s just wait and see, not a good
value match here – Manly to win but the margins for this one are about
right. Pick – no play
NRL ROUND TWO
Storm to bt Broncos
2 at 2.50
-2
This promises to be a repeat of last years
epic semi-final encounter, narrowly won by Melbourne, with both these
sides starting 2009 in style and coincidently both coming away with one
point wins last week, with the defence (and fitness) of both sides
really standing out. There are some fantastic match-ups right across the
field here and I feel the key to all these is in the halves pairing,
where I believe Melbourne will have the edge. There won’t be a lot of
points in this match but I’m happy to recommend backing the visitors at
a decent enough price. Pick – Storm to win
Eels +4.0 vs Rabbitohs
2 at 1.92
+1.84
This match will further serve to show us
how far Souths have come from last season and whether this halves
pairing of Sutton and Sandow are able to reach the same heights on
attack as they did in masterminding last weeks demolition of the
Roosters. I was impressed with the effort by Souths but the theatrics
around the win are a little too much (Rus and the big thumb…please), and
I can’t believe how much the press have jumped the gun on Sutton as an
Origin starter, we’ve had one game in the season for goodness sakes.
Anyway, I personally believe the Eels will bounce back from their
performance against the Warriors, Daniel Anderson is a very good coach
and the team is full of talent, he’ll be demanding more from the senior
Eels players and I expect they will respond. Pick – Eels +4.0 point
start
Dragons v Titans
NO PLAY
The Dragons looked sharp in narrowly
losing to the Storm last week, accurate in their execution in the face
of strong defence and equally accurate in defence themselves, getting
numbers to the ball carrier, cutting out potentially dangerous
off-loads, something they’ll have to repeat against this dangerous
Titans offence, a team they’ve beaten in their last four encounters. The
Titans currently have all their attacking weapons injury free which does
not happen often, and have only been strengthened since 2008, they
traditionally do not travel well though so I’d prefer to wait and see
what the 2009 version holds. Hold onto your wallets! Pick – no play
Panthers to bt Bulldogs
3 at 2.75
-3
Having been written off before
kick-off against Manly the Bulldogs put in one of their best efforts in
a long time to thoroughly outplay the embattled Sea Eagles; the Panthers
on the other hand will be hoping for a lot better execution than last
week in never really threatening against the Sharks, the halves pairing
of Lewis and Sammut are going to hurt teams this season but they may
need a little longer to hit their straps. I’m not a fan of getting
carried away after the first round with teams performances, the NRL is a
marathon, not a sprint, and I’m not convinced last weeks efforts will
mirror this matches outcome. The Dogs lost 52-16 in Penrith back in
round 23 last season and whilst I’m certainly not suggesting a similar
score line I am confident the Panthers will play at a much higher level
to that of last week, whilst I’m not convinced the Dogs will repeat
their level of intensity. Pick – 3 units on Panthers to win
(BEST BET)
Cowboys -7.5 v Tigers
2.5 at 1.89
+2.23
The Cowboys could have easily taken the
points last week against the Broncos if not for a few lapses of
concentration late in the match, whilst the Tigers impressive second
half performance sealed a good win over the Raiders. The Cowboys have an
excellent side on paper and I believe could make a mess of the Tigers in
Townsville, they’re a side with so many attacking weapons, backed up by
an uncompromising forward pack that will punch away at the Tigers all
night. The Tigers embarrassed the Cowboys in Round 2 last year at this
same venue and I expect a complete reversal in this match, they are a
much better coached side in 2009 and have a fit playing roster. Farah
and Marshall are again the key players for the Tigers but I expect will
be shut down by a tough and uncompromising Cowboys defence. Pick – 2.5
units on Cowboys -9.5 or better point start
Raiders v Roosters
NO PLAY
The Roosters were dreadful in getting
humiliated by the Rabbitohs last week and will obviously enter this
match with much more focus and determination with a definite point to
prove for themselves and their fans, if they’re to do that though they
need Anasta and Pearce to repeat their 2008 form. The Raiders had an
excellent first half only to go try less in the second half, which is a
worry for a side many believe will be wooden spoon contenders in 2009.
The Roosters have the better side on paper and enough motivation behind
them to get the win here but after the low level to which they stooped
last week I’m going to recommend my devoted readers just sit this one
out. Pick – no play
Sea Eagles v Warriors
NO PLAY
The Sea Eagles were obviously rocked last
week with the off-field sagas but I expect will be much more focused
this week against a team they’ve enjoyed good success over in recent
times, winning five of the last six encounters. The Warriors will be
pleased with their effort against the Eels but will need to have an 80
minute focus for if they let the intensity drop, as they did briefly
last week, they will get severely punished. Stacey Jones returns at
Halfback for the Warriors, whilst out go Hohaia and Matulina through
injury; whilst the Sea Eagles have shown faith in last weeks bunch. I
expect a win to Manly here but again want to give both these sides
another week to prove themselves. Pick – no play
Sharks v Knights
NO PLAY
The Sharks ground out a win over the
Panthers last week and look like they’re not going to change from their
2008 style of play – with percentage attack and suffocating defence,
they were dealt a blow this week with the loss of Ben Ross for the
season and Seymour for one match (at least that was so at time of
writing). The Knights did not show enough for me to back them to get the
win here, but the Sharks performance wasn’t exactly inspiring either,
the Bookies have the lines right and I recommend holding onto your cash.
Pick – no play
NRL ROUND ONE
Cowboys to bt Broncos
2 at 2.25
-2
The Broncos are going to be up against it
in this match and I’m surprised at their early favouritism given the
very impressive side North Queensland have named and the decent record
they have at Suncorp Stadium. While Brisbane do have a number of players
to warrant opposition respect they are fielding a number of
inexperienced players, particularly through the backline, and I expect
this to be a significant factor as the pairing of Thurston and Bowen
flex their muscles. Short and sweet, I expect the traditional physical
local Derby up front but for the Cowboys backs to be the difference with
too much pace and strength. Pick – 2 units on Cowboys to win
Storm v Dragons
NO PLAY
Great match to have so early in the
opening round with so many unknowns, how much have the Dragons really
changed under Bennett? How will the Storm go with the loss of key
personnel – Crocker, Folau, J Smith, Kaufusi and Geyer? There is no
doubt the Storm still have a menacing side on paper but are very short
on experience in the Centre’s and where Bennett will definitely be
looking to focus a lot of the offensive play through Chase Stanley and
Matt Cooper, with Soward and Hornby more than capable of orchestrating a
very testing night for the inexperienced Storm centre pairing. Taking on
the Storm at Olympic Park is one of the toughest tasks in the NRL but as
the Warriors proved last year, it is possible to get the win, but after
the Dragons Charity Shield performance I’d prefer to wait another week
before recommending a wager on a match they’re involved in, best to sit
this one out and enjoy. Pick – no play.
Warriors v Eels
NO PLAY
The Warriors have had an impressive
pre-season to match the impressive signings made for 2009 in what I
expect will be a very good one for them, with plenty of competition for
the Halfback/Five-Eighth positions, which is where they’ve been caught a
little short in recent years. The Eels on the other hand have been very
quiet on the recruitment front for 2009 but have lost some good
experience from 2008; the most significant signing however has
definitely been that of their coach Daniel Anderson who replaces Michael
Hagen, which can only be a very positive move for the club after recent
under-achievement. The Bookies have the line about right for this match,
the Warriors will come out strongly, supported by a large home crowd,
but I’d like to see just how far Daniel Anderson has taken this Eels
side and whether they might finally cast aside the underachiever tag in
2009. Pick – no play
Sharks -6.5 v Panthers
3 at 1.91
+2.73
The Sharks have recruited well for
2009 adding Barrett, Tupou, Hughes and Maitua who are all set to play in
this match, whilst the Panthers I feel have gone backwards and it could
be a very long season for them, starting with this match. The Sharks
started 2008 very strongly and I expect this season to be no different,
they’ve a very good side on paper and have a very good coach in Ricky
Stuart, who will be more determined than ever to win another premiership
after losing the Australian coaching job. I can’t help but feel the
Bookies have got the margins too narrow in this match and am happy to
recommend getting on the home side with the negative point start. 3
units on Sharks -6.5 point start (BEST BET)
Bulldogs v Sea Eagles
NO PLAY
What a week to forget for the Manly club
with star Fullback Brett Stewart now being rightly or wrongly suspended,
either way it’ll serve as a catalyst of disruption for the side or one
for unity. Manly proved in the Club Challenge win that they’re going to
be a huge force again in 2009, but have been weakened with the loss of
Williamson, Menzies and Bell; the Bulldogs on the other hand have a
stronger side than that of ’08 doing particularly well in recruiting for
the crucial positions of Halfback (Kimmorley) and Hooker (Ennis). This
should be a very good match but one I recommend keeping your wallet
closed for. Pick – no play
Titans -6.5 v Knights
2.5 at 1.91
+2.28
The Knights are another side who’ve lost
more than they’ve gained from 2008 in terms of personnel, with Danny
Buderas being the biggest of those losses, a player the Knights heavily
relied upon for leadership and general play. The Titans have remained
relatively stagnant with the bulk of the 2008 side still in place, they
have added the exciting Zillman at Fullback though; again a lot will
depend on whether the dual captains – Prince and Bailey, can both stay
fit and on the field because when they both start, as with this match,
then the Titans are a very tough side to beat particularly at Skilled
Park. The Titans have too many game-breakers against a Knights side that
does not look particularly menacing on paper and I expect they will be
overrun with a comfortable victory to the home side. Pick – 2.5 units on
Titans -6.5 point start
Roosters v Rabbitohs
NO PLAY
The Rabbitohs have to start 2009 well in
order to have any chance of making the play-offs, too often we’ve seen
them languishing after early rounds, left to play catch-up all season
but if their Charity Shield performance was anything to go by this could
be a much more dangerous Souths side with a settled Halves pairing of
Sutton and Sandow, two excellent new backline recruits in Best and
Wesser and a solid forward pack. The Roosters have lost Shillington,
Tupou and Roberts for 2009 and not been big on recruitment, the major
focal point of their season will again come down to their halves pairing
of Anasta and Pearce and whether they can repeat a lot of the magic they
worked in 2008. In short, I don’t see any great value in this match,
both these sides have a lot of potential for 2009 and I’d prefer to sit
this one out and see what each is going to offer. Pick – no play
Tigers v Raiders
NO PLAY
The Raiders have lost some significant
names from 2008 in Zillman, Carney, Withers and Best but they proved
last year they are a very resilient side and truly embody the notion of
writing off at your own expense, which is what I was considering doing
this week but have decided against it. The Tigers have lost Hodgson and
Head from 2008 and I’d prefer to see how this 2009 version shapes up
before recommending my devoted readers throw away their hard earned cash
on them, especially against the Green Machine! Pick – no play
2010 U.S. MASTERS
Tiger Woods 3.50
Phil Mickelson 6.00
P Harrington 13.00
Lee Westwood 17.00
Rory Mcilroy 17.00
Geoff Ogilvy 19.00
Steve Stricker 19.00
Retief Goosen 21.00
Paul Casey 21.00
Sergio Garcia 26.00
Jim Furyk 26.00
Ernie Els 29.00
H Stenson 29.00