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Friday March 12, 2010 -





NRL PREVIEWS & PLAYS
...with OTP's National Rugby League expert

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NRL GRAND FINAL
Melbourne -4.0 vs Parramatta 4 at 1.92 +3.68
This has all the makings of an absolutely brilliant grand final with both sides peaking perfectly for this match and both sides at full strength (Cayless was included in Eels side at time of writing). The surge of the Eels has been simply unstoppable, that is until now, as I feel the only side who've been capable of halting their charge for the premiership is the Storm who are as battle-hardened as they come and equipped both offensively and defensively to handle what the Eels throw at them. Of these two sides it's the Storm who are the more clinical in their play and slightly edge the Eels in terms of flare and added to this the majority of the Strom side can no doubt still taste the bitter disappointment that was last years grand final, in which they were thrashed by Manly, and will be quietly confident of putting that match to rest here. The Eels have the Hayne factor but the Storm will be up for what he throws their way, the Storm on the other hand have the weight of experience in the Halves with Cronk and Finch in season best form and again we'll see some big metres gained from the Storm around the ruck (particularly from Smith who will relish this match after missing last years final) which will create the attacking momentum and keep the Eels on their heels, whilst defensively the Storm are the strongest unit the Eels will have played of late and in this match they won't have the missed tackles and slower line speed they've enjoyed from recent opposition. The Eels story to date has been somewhat of a fairytale but there'll be no glass slipper for them here as the Storm take out the grand final, covering the narrow margin in the process. Pick – 4 units on Storm -4.0 point start (BEST BET)

 

NRL FINALS WEEK THREE
Parramatta to bt Bulldogs 2 at 1.92 +1.84
The Eels look simply unstoppable and the only team who does have a chance to halt their surge for the title is Melbourne, who I expect them to play in the Grand Final next week. The Dogs have had a great season but their lead up to this very important match has been soft, with a week off last week and a win over the Knights the week before, whereas the Eels have hammered both the Titans and the minor premier Dragons in the last two weeks, they've also got a fully fit squad and players that have peaked at the perfect time in the season. The Dogs will be solid here and, as they have all year, do the basics very well, unfortunately for them though it'll take more than this to beat the Eels, who themselves are doing the basics extremely well but are also adding the x-factor to each display, with a forward pack whose work rate is second to none and a backline choc-full of attacking options. I'm not convinced Kimmorley will be anywhere near his best after a few weeks off and even though Roberts has come on strong in 2009 this is a different stage and will require another step up in play, and I'm not sure he's got that in him just yet in his career, whereas the Eels have so many options there's not one player that has such an attacking burden resting on them. The Eels have won 5 of their last 6 against the Dogs and will share equal support amongst the near capacity crowd at ANZ Stadium, it'll be the blue and golds who are cheering loudest come the final whistle though. Pick – 2 units on Eels to win
Melbourne -8.5 vs Brisbane 3 at 1.94 +2.82
As I've said above the only team capable of stopping the Storm are the Eels, which obviously means I'm siding heavily on the Storm to take this match out comfortably. Credit to the Broncos for their last couple of wins over the Titans and Dragons where they, particularly last week over the Dragons, essentially out-muscled and beat the opposition forward pack into submission, which spearheaded the rest of the side into almost complete dominance, they will certainly not have that same dominance this week though as the Storm will, I expect, reverse the tables on them and it will be the Broncos who struggle to cope with the intensity and physicality of the match. The Broncos are going to struggle without Wallace's kicking game and his absence will just add to the pressure on Lockyer, who the Storm will be targeting all match. Short and sweet here, the Storm own the Broncos, particularly in Melbourne, and have too many big game players brimming with experience in the heat of finals footy. This is going to be a very comfortable win to the home side who have the premiership within their grasp yet again. Pick – 3 units on Storm -8.5 point start (BEST BET)

 

NRL FINALS WEEK TWO
Dragons to beat Brisbane 3 at 1.88 -3
What a contrasting fortnight it's been for the Minor Premiers the Dragons having thumped the Eels 37-0 then losing to them by 13 points the following week in a complete turnaround which leads them this week to Brisbane in a sudden death match….and the script could not have been written any better really with coaches Bennett facing off against the Henjak. The Dragons were well short of their best last week against the Eels and will turn things around here in style, their forwards were far from the dominant force they've been all year; what will worry the Broncos is the fact that last time the Dragons suffered a shock defeat was against Souths a month ago and they bounced back hard the following week to hammer the Eels in that 37-0 rout, they'll be buoyed by the impressive record they have in Brisbane also having won their last 5 matches played at Suncorp Stadium and 8 of their last 9 overall against the Broncos. The Broncos come into this following their 40-32 victory over Gold Coast, the fact they conceded 32 points is a worry as is the fact that the Titans played below their best so any confidence they get out of that match is somewhat false. The Broncos have some real stars within their side but the Dragons are simply unstoppable as a combined unit and when the juggernaut starts to roll, as I have no doubt it will here, they operate with a near impenetrable defence and a clinical attack that this Broncos side won't be able to withhold. Even though they've been winning I'm not getting carried away with this Broncos side and I expect the Dragons master coach Wayne Bennett to add another chapter to his triumphs at this ground, he lead the visiting Kiwis over the Kangaroos last year and he'll be relishing this match-up. Quite simply the Dragons are a better side and won’t give the Broncos any of the offensive freedom they enjoyed against the Raiders and Titans over the last fortnight, whilst the pace of the match from the Dragons will have the home side back-pedalling all day. Pick – 3 units on Dragons to win (BEST BET)
Gold Coast +8.0 vs Parramatta 2 at 1.96 -2
I've not liked the direction the Titans have headed in over the last fortnight, having put in two sub-par performances in losing to both Manly and Brisbane, conceding a combined 78 points in the process, the realities of what they now face is in flashing neon lights though and I believe we'll see a return to the attitude and intensity here that saw them finish the season third on the table. The Eels have showed us both sides of their personality in the last fortnight and I've seen it time and again in league after teams have scaled their Everest one week they struggle to reach the same heights the next week so the issue facing Daniel Anderson is one of motivating his side to the same intensity they showed in downing the Dragons last week, whilst the motivation for the Titans has never been stronger and their intensity should reflect the fact they now face their own Everest here. I've sounded a little like a broken record the last few weeks in describing the numerous strengths this Titans side have – they’re brimming with experience and have a forward pack that is as strong, if not stronger, than any in the competition, yet have not risen to the heights recently that I have expected from them - this week again though that broken record is still playing and I'm backing them to throw everything into the ring here, look for the older masters of Prince, Bailey, Rogers, Campbell, and co to really step up and lead this side in a very competitive performance. The result here is really in the balance and the Bookmakers have jumped on the Eels ship, which is good for us as I recommend getting on the generous point start on offer to the visitors. Pick – 2 units on Gold Coast +10.5 point start.

 

NRL FINALS WEEK ONE
Melbourne to bt Manly 3 at 1.95 +2.85
I'm very pleased to see the Bookies be sucked in by Manly's win last week over a Titans side that played their worst match of the season and made Manly look back to their premiership winning best and whilst their defence may be close to that level their attack is not, with or without Lyon. The Storm know what to expect here and have had a year to reflect on the grand final humiliation they suffered in 2008 and this match, more so than any other they've played in 2009, they will show all their cards and I expect them to come up with a Royal Flush - they have more class on attack in key positions than the Sea Eagles and I expect Bellamy to have worked on a game plan to counter the rush defence of the visitors. The Bookies have predictably gone for a fairly even market here….I strongly recommend making them pay - get on the Storm to win!! Pick – 3 units on Storm to win (BEST BET)
Gold Coast to bt Brisbane 2 at 2.65 -2
The Titans were terrible last week in losing heavily to the Sea Eagles, it was a very timely wake-up call that this side is definitely good enough to respond to especially given they're back on home turf and with a couple of regulars returning in Meyers and Delaney. Whilst you can't argue with the Broncos excellent record in making the play-offs over the years their actual record once they're there is not flash at all and I'm afraid it's about to get even worse. The Titans have playmakers all across the field and whilst they were disappointing against Manly they have the depth of experience and talent to turn things around here in front of their home fans that have become accustomed to watching the Titans win at Skilled Park. The Broncos have shown a real lack of consistency in 2009 and looked odds on to miss the play-offs at one stage whilst the Titans have been a more dominant force and have made this trip to Skilled Park one of the toughest away journeys for visiting sides in the competition. Prince will turn things around this week for the Titans whose mobile pack will run the Broncos ragged with Friend, Campbell and co eating up some big yardage around the fringes. The Bookies have the Broncos as favourites here which means good value in backing the Titans. Pick – 2 units on Titans to win
Bulldogs -5.5 vs Newcastle 3 at 1.92 +2.76
The Tigers did not do the Knights any favours last week in thrashing the Bulldogs as I've no doubt it was the slap in the face the Dogs needed going into this clash as each and every player (especially Ennis and Roberts) lifts their accountability and performance to accommodate the absence of Kimmorley and we'll see a very different Dogs side take the field this week. The Dogs will return to the basics of punishing defence that we've seen from them for most of the season and a fast paced offence that will win the field position stakes. Short and sweet here, just like the Dragons last week I expect the Dogs to remind us all just how good they are with a bruising and clinical win here, covering the point start. Pick – 3 units on Bulldogs -5.5 point start
St George-Illa. vs Parramatta NO PLAY
The momentum the Eels had built up in the weeks preceding last weeks match against the Dragons was all but forgotten following their 37-0 demolition and with just one week to dust themselves off before this replay I just can't see a change in the result, although expect a closer match. The Dragons were just too clinical in everything they did last week with a return to the game plan and the form they've shown for most of the season that had many believing they couldn't be beaten. In front of another sell-out crowd the Dragons will again lift to the same intensity they showed on Friday night; the Eels will be lifted by the return of Hindmarsh to the side but the freight train that was their rush to the play-offs has come to a sudden halt and it’s hard to know if they can turn things around. The line is about right here and there’s better value elsewhere. Pick – no play

 

NRL ROUND TWENTY-SIX
Wests Tigers +6.5 v Bulldogs 2 at 1.90 +1.8
This match kicks off one of the more difficult rounds for punters in the NRL season where the finals spots are all but decided (with the exception of the Knights/Panthers match) the temperament and attitude of each side can be hard to judge, with players minds either on next weeks finals or on Mad Monday. The Tigers are one side I'm confident will approach this week with the same attitude and intensity as if they were still alive in season 2009, their injury hit line-up were run down last week by the Titans but put in a gallant effort and they'll be even stronger here back home and with a more healthy line-up. The Dogs are going to really miss the injured Kimmorley as he is the heart and soul of this side, not only in the way he guides the offence but with the leadership and overall tenacity he brings to the side, constantly lifting and challenging them to greater heights. The Bookies have given the Tigers a generous point start here and I'm happy to recommend getting on it as the Dogs won't have the same cohesion on attack without their inspirational Halfback whilst the Tigers have plenty of dangerous options on attack. Pick – 2 units on Tigers +6.5 point start
Dragons v Eels NO PLAY
What a great match this promises to be as the Dragons search for answers before the finals to their rapid decline and the Eels look to continue their seemingly unstoppable surge. It is very tempting here to recommend backing the Eels for yet another win here given how well they're playing but something tells me the Dragons will be back to their best here, anything short of which will see them going into the finals with four straight losses to their name and you'd be a very brave punter to back them to win the Premiership from there. We know just how good this Dragons side is and their problem at the moment is mental, they've no better person to turn them around though than Wayne Bennett who will have used his years and years of experience this week and as a result I expect every Dragons player will lift their game from last weeks embarrassing loss to Souths. Not a good match for punters, expect to see a rejuvenated Dragons side but it's questionable whether the Eels can be stopped by anyone at the moment, we'll see. Pick – no play
Storm -8.0 v Warriors 3 at 1.90 +2.7
The last two matches between these sides in Auckland have been shared one win a piece and have yielded a combined points total of 20 - which is absolutely staggering! There will be a large home crowd here to farewell the Little General, unfortunately for the Warriors though there's a gulf of talent between them and this Storm side who go into this fresh off a very big win over the Roosters and with their offence looking back to its devastating best following the return of Inglis to the side. The Warriors are still without Steve Price for this match, with Ropati and their main attacking weapon - Manu Vatuvai also added to the injury list here. Short and sweet, the Warriors will struggle to break through the Storm defence as the visitors approach this match like it's the finals and as the home side become more and more frustrated there’ll be plenty of turnover ball which the Storm will take full advantage of and will easily cover the line on offer from the Bookies. Pick – 3 units on Storm -8.0 point start
Titans to bt Sea Eagles 1 at 3.75 -1
Titans +10.5 v Sea Eagles 3 at 1.91 -3
The Titans will rate themselves a very good chance of beating Manly here, especially following the Sea Eagles lucky escape last week against a 12-man Sharks side who they were expected to thrash. Manly are without Jamie Lyon and Jason King here whilst the Titans have named a full strength side that I expect will do very well on this trip to Sydney as they cap an impressive regular season off with another strong showing. The Titans know that in order to stamp themselves as serious title contenders they need to win a big game like this in Sydney and what better dress rehearsal than to beat Manly at Broookvale. There is a lot to like about this Titans side who are stacked with more playmakers and potency across the park than any other side in the competition which is all capped off nicely with the depth of experience throughout the squad. Short and sweet, I expect a better performance from Manly but I've not been overly impressed with Orfords form, and without Lyon there to ease some of the offensive burden they will struggle. The Titans have been given a very generous point start from the Bookies and I recommend getting on it! Pick – 3 units on Titans +10.5 point start (BEST BET) and 1 unit on Titans to win
Sharks v Rabbitohs NO PLAY
Both these sides performed well above expectations last week with the Sharks very nearly upsetting Manly (doing so with 12 men for most of the match following the Douglas send-off) and Souths shocking everyone in hammering the Dragons. The Bookies can't split these sides and neither can I, the Bunnies have performed better in 2009 than the Sharks and do have the better side on paper that lacks nothing in offensive firepower but they've lacked any real consistency and who knows if they can put in back-to-back blinders....this match is the last in the NRL for Wing and Hughes, two players who deserve a big send-off. This is not a forum for playing guessing games and I highly recommend keeping your wallet firmly tucked away here as this result could go either way. Pick – no play
Roosters v Cowboys NO PLAY
The Roosters have a very commanding record over the Cowboys, especially in Sydney where they've won 8 of their last 9 clashes, but with the way they've played in 2009 and with further off-field drama this week around Sa, who knows if they can drag themselves off the carpet and put in one last ditch effort to avoid the Wooden Spoon and send their captain Fitzgibbon off in his last game in the NRL in style. I like that Minichiello is finally back at fullback but there is just too much not to like about the Roosters this season, this is their best shot at a win for some time though up against a Cowboys side who're hit with injuries to Bowen, Payne and Rovelli (although Burns in for Rovelli at five-eight is actually a good thing) and who have struggled away from Townsville this year. Again there are better options this round as the result here is in the balance, I'm tempted to back the Roosters to send Freddy Fittler and Fitzy off in style but they've burnt me too often in 2009 and shown no heart and even less spine. Pick – no play
Knights v Panthers NO PLAY
Both these sides have their season on the line here with the winner going through to the Finals and the loser confined to 9th place. The Knights have lost Rogers at five-eight but have good cover in Dureau, whilst the Panthers have named close to their strongest side, the big factor in this match is the fact it's being played in Newcastle in front of what will no doubt be a full house, which will definitely lift the Knights. Both these sides were disappointing last week, the Panthers being thrashed by the Eels and the Knights easily beaten by the Raiders so neither approach this with any real momentum. The Bookies have the line about right here and while the Panthers look very good on paper I've got a question mark as to whether they can hold out this Knights attack who'll be lead well by Mullen, DeGois and Dureau who will play the match at a very hectic pace which could catch the big Panthers forwards going backwards all day. Again there's better value elsewhere. Pick – no play
Broncos 13+ v Raiders 2 at 1.99 -2
This is a great opportunity for the Broncos to go some way to wiping the memories of Round 21 where they were beaten 56-0 by the Raiders in Canberra; the Raiders have travelled poorly in 2009 and are up against a Broncos side that’s playing much much better since that embarrassing affair. Short and sweet - the Bookies have the Broncos as firm favourites with a big line that I expect them to cover with ease; there will be a number of players itching to exert revenge here and will do so in style. The Raiders have conceded plenty of tries away from home and won't be able to keep out the rejuvinated Broncos who are finally starting to play up to the level they promise on paper. The Broncos will dominate every aspect of this match and, in front of a large home crowd, will enter the finals on a big high. Pick – 2 units on Broncos 13+

 

NRL ROUND TWENTY-FIVE
Broncos -6.5 v Cowboys 2 at 1.95 -2
As their lead slipped away last week against the Knights so did (realistically) the Cowboys season and they could struggle a little for motivation here against a Broncos side who're all of a sudden looking very sharp and have the added bonus of welcoming back superstar Israel Folau into the Centres for this match who will add another dimension to their attack. The Broncos have won their last four in a row against the Cowboys, including two played in Townsville, and have all the confidence, momentum and motivation going into this clash and should come away with the win here. We could see a repeat of the defensive effort that held the Dragons to just 2 points last week and we should see no shortage of points from the visitors who have game-breakers all over the park, none more so than Folau whose prolific ability to draw in defenders and win the aerial battle in gathering up Lockyer's cross field kicks will hurt the Cowboys. Pick – 2 units on Broncos -6.5 point start
Eels -7.5 v Panthers 2 at 1.92 +1.84
The last time these two sides met was in Round 17 and it was a try-fest won eventually by the Panthers following some late heroics, given how the Eels are playing however there's no way they'll concede anywhere near that number of tries again here, but I would rate them a good chance of repeating their offensive effort from that match. Just when you thought Hayne couldn't get any better he pulled out a performance last week against the Tigers that was jaw-dropping and I expect this week he'll continue where he left off. Short and sweet for this match, the result is crucial for both sides but the Eels are a side that's riding the crest of a wave and will win this match easily; the confidence, accuracy and intensity of the Eels will make them a very dangerous proposition for any side who has the misfortune of facing them in the finals. Pick – 2 units on Eels -8.5 or better point start
Titans v Wests Tigers NO PLAY
The Tigers go into this match with a number of players either out injured or who are carrying injuries which does not bode well for their chances of making the finals, with anything short of a win here almost certainly ending their chances; the Titans on the other hand have secured their finals birth and will hope to cement their top four spot with a good win here. The Titans are very tough to beat at Skilled Park and are rightfully favourites against the injury plagued Tigers, I'm not about to write off the visitors here though as Tim Sheens is a very canny coach and will have his side (regardless of who takes the field) primed and ready to throw everything at the Titans, whether that's enough though will remain to be seen. Pick – no play
Dragons -20.0 v Rabbitohs  2 at 1.92 -2
The Dragons will get things back on track here against a Bunnies side they’ve beaten in 11 of their last 12 encounters and who've been hit hard with injuries to key players. The Dragons will have been working hard all week to rediscover the winning form that propelled them to clear premiership favourites and I believe this match is the perfect platform for that, they'll offer way too much on attack, won't offer anything cheap on defence and will win every aspect of this match. Short and sweet - this is going to get ugly for the injury hit Bunnies. The Bookies have given the Bunnies a large points start but the Dragons won’t take long to haul that in and will cover with ease. Pick – 2 units on Dragons -20.0 point start
Storm -20.0 v Roosters 3 at 1.90 +2.7
Like the Dragons match this is a perfect platform for the Strom to rediscover their top form and post a huge morale boosting victory over the cellar dwelling Roosters. Bellamy has lost patience with his side and they'll have had a week of training they'd rather forget. The Roosters total lack of structure and accuracy on attack is not pretty to watch and they'll be lucky to get into double digits here whilst I expect the Storm to spend most of the game camped on the Roosters line and whilst their offence has not set the world on fire recently their are plenty of ways through this Roosters defensive line who continue to give up big totals. This is going all the way of the Storm who have the added bonus of Inglis returning and it’s going to be a bath. Pick – 3 units on Storm -20.0 point start (BEST BET)
Sea Eagles -23.5 v Sharks 2 at 1.91 -2
The Sea Eagles finally welcome back Brett Stewart at Fullback for this match and given his uncanny try-scoring abilities and how they lift to new levels with him in the side he may have just turned what was going to be a big win to Manly into a massacre. The line on offer from the Bookies here (+23.5 to Cronulla) is outrageous and I can't remember a bigger one but it is every bit justified given the Sharks continued demise and Manly's steady rise of late. I'm not going to strain a digit typing all the areas in which Manly have superiority over the Sharks as they are more than numerous.....the line is large but it'll probably be wiped out in the first half alone. Pick – 2 units on Manly -23.5 point start
Bulldogs v Warriors NO PLAY
The Warriors were impressive last week in beating the Raiders in Auckland but head into this game without their very influential captain Steve Price, and given their record without him and record playing away from New Zealand it's easy to see why the Bookies have gone for such a big line against a Bulldogs side that's vying for the minor premiership. Even the Warriors at their unpredictable best would struggle to match this Dogs side who welcome back the extra firepower of Hannant and Roberts for this match. The Bookies have the line about right here and there's better value in other matches. Pick – no play
Raiders v Knights NO PLAY
Just what sort of frame of mind the Raiders are in for this match is hard to know, we saw them at their brutal best just two weeks ago here in beating the Dragons but after a season punctuated with inconsistency it's hard to know if they've got one more big game left in them or not, the Knights on the other hand have their season on the line and will lack absolutely nothing in motivation. I am tempted to back the Knights here but it is not with any great confidence as the Knights have a very poor record in Canberra and the Raiders may, just may have one last big effort left in them. Pick – no play

 

NRL ROUND TWENTY-FOUR
Dragons v Broncos NO PLAY
The Dragons have owned the Broncos in recent history, having won the last 8 encounters between the sides, they did however have a few chinks in their armour exposed by the Raiders last week and if the Broncos wanted a blue-print on how the beat them they'll have studied that match. The Broncos looked back to their old self last week in thrashing the Panthers but risk dropping out of the top eight with a loss here, which should ensure they're well and truly up for this however it's best not to get overly excited about their last outing until they actually string together a few more wins over other top-eight sides. The Bookies have the line about right here. Pick – no play
Eels -3.5 v Wests Tigers 3 at 1.93 +2.79
Both these sides enter this match in their best form of the season and can ill afford any injury concerns as is the case with the Tigers, who have a cloud hanging over Farah and Galloway, and with Skandalis already ruled out it'll be a nervous wait until kick-off against a side they've only beaten once in their last 9 matches. The Eels sit just outside the top-eight and since their surge up the ladder started some weeks ago they've looked unstoppable and will get the points here. Hayne is currently by far the most outstanding player in the NRL and the Tigers will have their hands full dealing with him, but they're far from a one-trick show and have a number of players who have been hurting defensive lines along with a forward pack that's got some of that old Parramatta physicality back into it. The Tigers will struggle to hold back the tide here and won't be able to stop the Eels surge. Pick – 3 units on Parramatta -3.5 point start
Cowboys to bt Knights 2 at 2.58 -2
The Knights gave their new coach Rick Stone the perfect start last week as they finally got back to winning ways against the Storm, I've got a strong feeling though things are going to be a lot tougher here against a desperate (and fully fit) Cowboys side whose effort last week in losing to the Bulldogs can't be faulted, they are just one or two errors here and there off a really good performance and I saw enough to suggest that the timing is right for this match. This forwards battle will be a bit of an arm-wrestle whilst in the backs the Cowboys have the x-factor in Thurston and the likes of Tonga, Bowan, Williams and Graham who are more than capable of causing this Knights side some major headaches, and we've seen over the past month how the Knights heads drop once they get behind on the scoreboard. It's always likely that a team lifts in the first match under a new coach but maintaining that level of attitude and intensity can be tough once the hype dies down and the dust settles. I expect the Cowboys to throw everything into this match and get the upset. Pick - 2 units on Cowboys to win
Panthers v Rabbitohs NO PLAY
The Bunnies slim chances of making the top eight have been dented with key players - Wing, Crocker, Talanoa and Champion all out of this match against the Panthers which is certainly not what they needed especially given their poor recent history playing in Penrith. The Panthers put in a good first half against the Broncos but fell away poorly in the second, letting Brisbane run away with the match but I certainly do not expect any such fall-off in intensity here, especially with memories of last years late season capitulation still fresh. The Bookies have the Panthers as firm favourites and I really can't argue with the line on offer. Pick – no play
Warriors to bt Raiders 3 at 1.94 +2.82
It's hard to believe after watching the Raiders dismantle the Dragons last week that they're not in with a show of making the finals in 2009 having been plagued by inconsistency, particularly on the road where they've been poor. The Warriors were terrible last week against the Eels but back home, with Price back in the side and with nothing to lose I think we're finally about to see a very big match from them. With only a couple of games left in Auckland in which to send the Little General out in style I believe we'll see a Warriors side with much more urgency and accuracy on attack; I've seen it so often from this side in the past - when all is lost and they've copped it from every media outlet in New Zealand they then put a band-aid over their wounded egos with a performance that's well overdue. The Raiders record in Auckland is not flash and it's about to get worse here. Pick – 3 units on Warriors to win (BEST BET)
Titans v Sharks NO PLAY
It's hard to identify a single strength currently within this Sharks side given both their offensive and defensive deficiencies, which has lead to the Bookies offering the biggest line of any match this season which is very hard to argue with given they're up against a Titans side that's got plenty of points in them. The Titans have numerous game breakers who are all hitting their straps at the right time in the season and anything short of a huge win here will be a surprise, however again the line is about right from the Bookies and there's better value in other matches this round. Pick – no play
Sea Eagles to bt Storm 2 at 1.97 +1.94
This is a great chance for the Manly side to break their hoodoo of playing in Melbourne (they've lost 5 from 5 here) as they take on a Storm side missing Inglis and who looked a shadow of their best last week in going down to the Knights, whilst the Sea Eagles on the other hand were close to their best in demolishing the Roosters. There's talk Brett Stewart might be a late inclusion for Manly in this match which would lift them to another level but with Robertson playing well in his place they've got great cover if he does take another week to get back. The Storm looked devoid of penetration against the Knights, with Cronk and Finch really struggling to spark and I don't see a quick turnaround in fortunes here against a very well organised Manly defensive line. The Sea Eagles are eyeing a top four finish and to do so they must win here, which I believe they will do. Pick – 2 units on Manly to win
Bulldogs v Roosters NO PLAY
The Bulldogs were back to their best last week in withstanding all the Cowboys threw at them whilst clinically accumulating points of their own; it was a different story for the Roosters though as they recorded yet another heavy defeat at the hands of Manly and we saw from Freddy Fittlers demeanour in the post-match interview that he obviously just can't wait for this season to end. The Roosters are in a battle with Cronulla to avoid the Wooden Spoon and that, along with the passion usually associated with Dogs/Roosters clashes, could ensure this match is closer than the Bookies line suggests. This Roosters side has the experience and ability on paper to compete with most sides, their problem in 2009 though has been their attitude, intensity and execution, and who knows whether they can drag themselves up for this match and get within the generous point start on offer. Again the lines about right and there's much better value in other matches this round. Pick – no play

 

NRL ROUND TWENTY-THREE
Rabbitohs v Titans NO PLAY
The Rabbitohs put in their best performance of the season last week in beating Manly with some stunning attack and a defensive line that handled well what the Sea Eagles threw at them; the Titans also looked highly impressive in thrashing the Warriors in a very clinical manner, basically starving the Warriors of the ball and forcing them to tackle and tackle until they lay down in submission. We've got two exciting offences here led by a number of game-breakers and it'll likely be a high scoring match, the outcome really is in the balance though as neither side have shown great consistency in 2009 backing up following a good win the week before. Both sides have their own motivation here as the Bunnies try to break into the top eight and the Titans try to cement their top four spot. It's not a great game for the punters as this one really could go either way. Pick – no play
Cowboys v Bulldogs NO PLAY
The Cowboys are now facing plenty of pressure with each match as their topsy-turvy late season form has them sitting precariously within the top eight following last weeks loss to the Storm; the Bulldogs though sit comfortably within the top four following a hard fought win over the Raiders. It's been hard all season trying to predict whether this Cowboys side will be up or down for a match, they've beaten the Bulldogs in four out of their last five clashes and do owe the Townsville faithful something to cheer about flowing their poor last effort here in losing to the Panthers, but they have just not inspired enough confidence of late to back them here. This match could really go either way and is not a great one for the punters. Pick – no play
Sea Eagles -12.0 v Roosters 3 at 1.93 +2.79
Both these sides come into this fresh off a loss, it'll be Manly though who are hurting badly given they're not as accustomed to defeat as this Roosters side has become in 2009. The Manly defence will be a lot tougher this week and will find the going a lot easier against this Roosters offence that has few game-breakers and offer little in terms of any formidable attacking structure. Experience weighs heavily in favour of Manly and I expect it to shine through here after a few of the senior players had a below par game last week and a good dressing down from Hassler, and I expect Lyon to step up here and lift some of the attacking burden from Orford. Both sides have a few injury concerns but Manly have the depth to cover, whilst the Roosters continue to have to make do with what they have. It's been a very tough season for the Roosters and I feel they're about to cop another big loss here against a Manly side with plenty of points in them. Pick – 3 units on Manly -12.0 point start (BEST BET)
Eels -13.5 v Warriors 2 at 1.91 +1.82
The Warriors were clinically dismantled last week by the Titans while the Eels continued to steam-roll their way to the top-eight by hammering the Knights. This trip to Parramatta Stadium has traditionally been a rough one for the Warriors and with their attack completely devoid of ideas and penetration this match will be a very long one for them, up against one of the hottest sides in the competition presently who have no shortage of players that will take any half chances given, and with the way the respective forward packs are going I expect the dominant forward display from the Eels to lay the platform for plenty of attacking raids on the Warriors line. I just can't see the Warriors worrying this Eels side at all here, they're out of ideas and look out of their depth against the big boys, this is going to get real ugly for the Auckland side and it won't take long for the flood gates to open here; the Eels should easily cover the negative point start on offer. Pick – 2 units on Eels -13.5 point start
Raiders +7.5 v Dragons 2 at 1.91 +1.82
With the minor premiership all but sown up for the Dragons they now must focus on maintaining the excellent standards they've set throughout 2009 leading into the finals; whilst the Raiders are at the opposite end of the scale and with their finals chances gone will look to at least end the season on a high note over the coming weeks. The Raiders have played some of their best league of the season over the last two weeks and could easily have come away with the win last week over the second placed Bulldogs and they'll rate themselves a chance to get the win here back on home soil where only two weeks ago they destroyed the Broncos 56-0. A number of the Raiders players are showing some great late-season form and they're not a side that one would fancy playing at the moment, especially not the high-flying Dragons given they've been completely dominated by the Green-Machine in recent times, with Canberra winning 8 of the last 9 matches played between the sides. The Raiders have shown a renewed energy over the last fortnight and when their attitudes right, as it should be again here, they are as dangerous a side as any and I'm happy to back them to get within the generous point start on offer. Pick – 2 units on Raiders +7.5 point start
Sharks v Wests Tigers NO PLAY
This is another match where history heavily favours one side - the Tigers, who have won 9 of the last 10 matches played between these two sides and given the opposite directions these two sides are travelling it's no wonder the Bookies have the Tigers as firm favourites. I can't argue with the Bookies here as they've got the line about right; the Sharks are devoid of any offensive potency and while their heart can't be questioned they just don't have the x-factor required to penetrate a well organised defence. I don't see any value here as the Bookies have the line about right. Pick – no play
Panthers +5.5 v Broncos 2 at 1.97 -2
While the Broncos won comfortably on Monday night against the Sharks you'd hardly say it was a 'corner-turning' display of rugby league brilliance, but rather an error ridden scrap against a struggling side, this week though we should get a better indication as to how serious they are about making the top eight, against a Panthers side who are also in need of victories to cement their spot in the eight. I think the Bookies have jumped out of the blocks a little early with the Broncos following that win over Cronulla and like the line on offer here against a Panthers side that have been dangerous all season and have just as much motivation for the win here as the Broncos. The battle of the forward packs should be fairly even, this game will be won in the backs and the halves pairing of Walsh and Graham have been steering this Panthers outfit very well and with Jennings, Sammut, Tighe and Gordon all more than capable finishers I see plenty of points on offer for them here, against a Broncos defence that, whenever truly tested this season, has melted. This should be a high scoring match and a fairly even one, drawing my attention to the point start on offer to the Panthers. Pick – 2 units on Panthers +5.5 point start
Knights v Storm NO PLAY
The result here is a complete toss of the coin, you’ve got the Knights whose season went into free-fall about three weeks ago with the news of Brian Smiths departure next year and you’ve got the Storm on the other hand who have been rocked during the week with the indefinite standing down of their star player Greg Inglis and they risk a derailment similar to that suffered by Manly with Brett Stewarts early season absence. Just whether the Knights can turn things around and whether the Storm can overcome the Inglis scandal will remain to be seen, one thing is for certain though – this is definitely not a great match to bet on, toss a coin. Pick – no play

 

NRL ROUND TWENTY-TWO
Storm -6.0 v Cowboys 3 at 1.93 +2.79
The Cowboys finally clicked last week in hammering the Titans, showing glimpses of their 2005 form with Thurston commanding on attack and support all round him; they are facing a Storm side though who are very tough to beat at home and who are looking ominous, despite going down last week to the runaway premiership favourites the Dragons. I can’t see a repeat of the Cowboys effort this week, they are not going to have the same freedom on attack against what will be a fierce Storm defensive line who will be looking to make amends following several breaches against the Dragons, whilst the offence showed signs of its best in parts last week and they’ll find the going a lot easier here against the inconsistent Cowboys. The Storm have won their last five in a row against the Cowboys and they’ll easily make it six here, covering the line. Pick – 3 units on Storm -6.5 or better point start (BEST BET)
Panthers v Dragons NO PLAY
This is a tough match for the Bookies, you’ve got the seemingly unstoppable Dragons taking on the Panthers in Penrith, a team that’s punched well above its weight in 2009, and who finally welcome back Luke Lewis. The Bookies have it about right here though, the consistency the Dragons have shown in 2009 has been phenomenal, they continue to lift each week and showed their character last week in keeping their heads against the Storm and coming back from a halftime deficit to run away with the match and quite frankly they just don’t look beatable at the moment. The lines about right here and I can’t see any great value, the Panthers have shown plenty this year and could easily make this closer than expected, it will remain to be seen whether they can keep out this crisp and accurate Dragons offence though, something all other sides have really struggled with. Dragons have won five on the trot versus the Panthers and everything here points to a sixth but don’t sweat on the margin. Pick – no play
Sea Eagles v Rabbitohs NO PLAY
Once the Manly machine woke from its slumber on Monday night they looked ominous but for most of the match they were not anywhere near their best whilst the Bunnies jumped out of the blocks against the Bulldogs only to be run down and swallowed following some mistakes and shabby defending. I expect Manly to be back to their best this week in front of the Brookvale faithful and I was hoping for a tighter line from the Bookies but instead they have given them a large margin to cover and I can’t really argue with it. Manly to win but whether the Bunnies defence turns up and limits the damage will remain to be seen, not a great betting match as the Bookies have the lines about right. Pick – no play
Raiders +13.5 v Bulldogs 2 at 1.93 +1.86
The Raiders go into this match with more confidence than they’d have had going into a game all year following a 56-0 win over the Broncos, there’ll be no delusions of grandeur going into this match though as they know the Bulldogs are an altogether much tougher challenge and they’ll have to lift even more to run them close. I’ve thought all season that when this Raiders side fire they’re as good as any and believe they’ll again be close to their best here; the attacking style that the Raiders embrace could just be the key that unlocks this Bulldogs defence and they should clock up enough points to at get within the generous points start on offer. The Bulldogs have the consistency going into this match but the Raiders have the element of surprise that the Dogs will be concerned about, the recent record between these two sides is fairly even and whilst I expect a Dogs win it won’t be outside the line on offer. Pick – 2 units on Raiders +13.5 point start.
Warriors v Titans NO PLAY
The Titans have only played once in Auckland since they rejoined the NRL and that was a 30-6 loss to the Warriors in 2007 and with the way they performed last week against the Cowboys you’d not write off a similar score line here, such was the poor state of their defence. The Warriors are still without Steve Price and have dropped McKinnon for this match but lose nothing in moving Locke to fullback, a position he will no doubt shine in given his elusive running, excellent defence and general vision for the game. The Warriors gave up a huge lead last week to draw with the Panthers but at least showed an attitude and intensity that’s been missing from their play and with the return to Auckland here will be looking to build on that and could well get the upset. Rogers is back for the Titans, not at five-eight but in the Centres, and otherwise are carrying the majority of the side that’s gotten them into a good position to finish the season in the top four. Apart from last weeks effort against Penrith the Warriors have really struggled offensively, barely averaging double figures, and teams no longer fear this Auckland trip like they have in previous seasons, having said that though this is a real danger game for the Titans as who knows whether we’ll see the Warriors of the first 60 minutes last week or the side that gave up a 32-6 lead in the last 20 minutes. Danger game for punters!! Pick – no play
Wests Tigers -6.5 vs Roosters 2 at 1.90 +1.8
The Tigers continued their charge for the top-eight on Monday in beating Manly, doing so off the back of a great forward display with the return of Galloway and Heighington lifting them, they also have a backline that’s firing, led well by the in-form Marshall and will take some beating over the coming weeks. The Roosters finally put together a decent performance last week in hammering what was an off Titans side but they’ll find this a lot tougher and have done themselves no favours by putting Minichiello into five-eight, a position he is not suited for and has very little experience in. The Roosters will struggle to put together back to back good performances here and will struggle to match the Tigers up front and the Tigers certainly have the proven firepower to finish what opportunities they’re given. I see this as going all the way of the Tigers as we return to business as usual for the Roosters. Pick – 2 units on Tigers -6.5 or better point start
Eels -4.5 v Knights 2 at 1.92 +1.84
The Knights have hit a real speed bump over the last couple of weeks and it’s certainly no coincidence it’s come following Brian Smiths announcement of departure at the end of the season to coach the Roosters, just whether they can pick themselves up this week will remain to be seen. The Eels have been great the past few weeks and I am more than happy to back them again here to cover the margin and win this comfortably. With Hayne the current MVP of the NRL leading the attack and posing real danger whenever he’s got ball in hand, and the likes of Moimoi, Hindmarsh, Cayless and co all firing up front it’s going to be tough going to try and stop the momentum they’ve built as they surge towards the top eight. It’s hard to see a sudden turnaround from the Knights as further media attention has only fanned the Smith issue and this is not a good time to be playing away from home against one of the form sides in the competition….we’re finally seeing Daniel Andersons influence at the Eels shine through and he’ll have this side primed and ready again this week. Big win to the Eels here. Pick – 2 units on Eels –4.5 point start
Broncos -13.5 v Sharks 2 at 1.92 +1.84
I was really hoping the Bookies would be swept away with the anti-Broncos sentiment that’s sweeping the NRL and at least make the odds for this a little closer because I’ve little doubt they are going to come out here and make us forget their 56-0 demolition at the hands of the Raiders last week in the best possible way, by notching up a huge win of their own. The Broncos were nothing short of pathetic last week and a disgrace to the proud club but they do have a very capable squad, the main issue for them has been around defence but what better side to prove a point against than the Sharks who have really struggled offensively this season and with their chief playmaker Barrett gone for the season they’ll again struggle this week. The Broncos are full of game breakers that just needed the type of wake-up call they received last week, watch for a big effort from the senior Broncos players and for a very hungry side to launch a bid for the top-eight. This is going to get ugly for the Sharks. Pick – 2 units on Broncos -13.5 point start

 

NRL ROUND TWENTY-ONE
Storm to bt Dragons 2 at 2.77 -2
The Dragons continued on their path of excellence in thrashing the woeful Warriors last weekend whilst the Storm defended stoutly against the Sharks, weathering a very lop-sided possession count to run away with the game, doing so without Greg Inglis and Ryan Hoffman who are both back in the side for this match. I like the Storm to win this one, they have a very solid defense, the likes of which the Dragons won't have encountered for a long time, and with Inglis back in the side have a number of devastating weapons at their disposal, they will put more pressure on Soward than any other team has and will really test the in-form five-eight and if they manage to nullify his kicking game then they're half-way to shutting down the Dragons attack, something Bellamy will have drilled into his players. The Storm have a very good record over the Dragons, having won 9 of their last 10 games played, and will approach this with a degree of confidence. Both these sides are grand final candidates and expect grand final intensity here which will bring out the best in the Storm big game players. Pick – 2 units on Storm to win
Titans v Cowboys NO PLAY
The Cowboys are proving a tough team to follow from a punters perspective, they have a very talented squad but can't seem to win away from Townsville and even at home last week they were run down and beaten by an under-strength Panthers side. This isn't a good match for the Punters, the lines about right from the Bookies and the eventual damage inflicted by the Titans will depend on what sort of attitude the Cowboys turn up with, which isn't worth betting on. Pick – no play
Raiders v Broncos NO PLAY
This is again not a great match for the punters as we've got two sides that are falling short of expectations and just what sort of attitude they each take into the game is a lottery. The Raiders were flat last week in being thrashed by the Tigers with their inability to turn possession and position into points and their lack of defensive structure when defending their own line will be a real worry for them. The Broncos are not much better and have only managed to beat the woeful Warriors over the last seven weeks, losing every other match by large margins, they do however welcome back Lockyer, Carrol and Hunt for this match but they've been that bad of late that even with these three there's no assurance of a turn around. Neither side inspires any confidence at all here and it’s certainly not a good match for the Punters. Pick – no play
Panthers v Warriors NO PLAY
Woeful, pathetic, spineless....all these words come to mind when I think of the Warriors efforts in 2009 which were all highlighted in their huge loss last week to the Dragons in Auckland, the Panthers on the other hand have shown great character this season and continued to surprise last week in beating the Cowboys in Townsville. Just what frame of mind the Warriors will be in is hard to know, the only thing stopping me from tipping a huge win to the Panthers is a nagging feeling the Warriors are going to fire up after a week of heavy criticism in the NZ press, but even a fired up Warriors side shouldn’t be too daunting for a top eight team like the Panthers, still don’t like it though and best to sit out. Pick – no play
Knights -14.5 v Roosters 2 at 2.06 -2
The Knights jumped out to a good lead last week only to be made to look ordinary once the Manly machine kicked into gear at the 25 minute mark, they should bounce back here though against a Roosters side that's just making up the numbers in 2009. With Gidley back in the side this week the Knights have more options on attack and the forwards will find going a lot easier this week against a much softer forward pack, creating the go-forward that the Knights have fed off all season. I will be very surprised if this isn't a very big win to the Knights, it will only take a few tries to get the Roosters to drop their heads and that’s when the floodgates will open. Pick – 2 units on Knights -14.5 point start
Eels -6.5 v Sharks 2 at 1.96 +1.92
The Sharks can't buy a trick this season and not even a return to their home ground here should make a difference as they're up against an Eels side that's playing the best it has in two seasons with a number of star players (Hayne, Moimoi, Hindmarsh etc) all hitting their straps. The Sharks are without Barrett here, and with Gallen also out they're looking very inexperienced. The Sharks lack impact on attack and will be even worse off without Barrett whilst the Eels offence has looked very impressive over the last fortnight and they'll have too much to offer here. Pick – 2 units on Eels -6.5 point start
Rabbitohs to bt Bulldogs 1 at 3.15 -1
Rabbitohs +8.5 v Bulldogs 3 at 1.91 +2.73
This is the perfect match for the Bunnies to show everyone just how serious their late charge for the finals is, up against a top four side who'll be looking to bounce back hard after their loss to the Eels. It's an interesting line from the Bookies here given the confidence and flair the Bunnies have been playing with and I'm happy to recommend backing them to get within the point start on offer as this Souths side have the momentum and key players in form, with Sutton and Sandow playing superbly and players like Luke, Asotasi, Simpson, Merritt all in their best form of the season. The Eels exposed a few chinks in the Dogs armour last week and the Bunnies will sense their vulnerability. Pick – 3 units on Souths +8.5 point start (BEST BET) and 1 unit on Souths to win
Wests Tigers v Sea Eagles NO PLAY
Whilst this should be an entertaining Monday night encounter I don't see any real value here. The Sea Eagles are rightfully favourites and the Bookies have the line about right, expect a bruising match-up between two in-form forward packs; Manly are looking ominous and you'd not want to bet against them, Monday night league has thrown up some upsets this season though and with the form the Tigers have shown lately you'd not bet with any great confidence against them either. Pick – no play

 

NRL ROUND TWENTY
Titans 13+ v Broncos 2 at 2.00 +2
The Broncos are certainly up against it here without a number of injured stars, not least of which their captain and chief playmaker Lockyer, but also Wallace, Hunt, Carroll, Thaiday and Folau, whilst the most notable absence for the Titans is Mat Rogers but they won't be too disadvantaged given the cover they have in Preston Campbell, which means the impressive Zillman gets a start at fullback. The Broncos only win in the last 6 games was against the struggling NZ Warriors and other than that they've looked far from impressive with a terrible defence and an attack that's equally as unimpressive. Last time the Broncos were without both Lockyer and Wallace they got thrashed by Cronulla, and this game welcomes back the same Halves combo of Ben Hunt and Aaron Gorrell with Hunt in particular looking out of his depth in that match which is worrying for him considering who he's up against here in Prince. Titans too will be looking to make amends following their loss to the Bulldogs and do have the much stronger personnel and home ground advantage, where they've not lost all season. The Titans will have way too many points in them and I'll be surprised if this isn't anything short of a big win to them. Pick – 2 units on Gold Coast 13+
Sea Eagles -7.0 v Knights 2 at 1.97 +1.94
I am a little surprised to see the opening line on offer from the Bookies for this match, I'm not surprised Manly are favourites but the line is quite big considering the way Newcastle have been playing of late, it could be a result of the loss of Mullen at Halfback for the Knights but Dureau has shown himself to be a very useful playmaker so not too much should be lost there. Having said that I do expect the Sea Eagles to really dive into this match, they've had two weeks of below par performances by their standards and despite Newcastle’s impressive form I think Manly will win this comfortably; they're a very professional outfit and will have their eyes on a top four spot. This match is being played in Gosford so no real advantage either way, but Newcastle are coming off the Bye and with off-field dramas around Brian Smiths defection to the Roosters next year I don't believe we'll see them at their best. Get on Manly to win this quite comfortably. Pick – 2 units on Manly -7.0 point start
Bulldogs v Eels NO PLAY
Believe it or not but the Dogs have been fielding a below strength side for the last month or so, you wouldn't guess it though from their performances, this week though they are well and truly at full strength with players back from suspension and injury. The Eels have grown throughout the season and are currently looking as good as they have for a season and a half and they showed just what they're capable of when the intensity is there in beating the Storm last week in a very determined effort. I don't see a whole lot of value here, the Dogs, along with the Dragons, are clear premiership favourites and given the strength of the side they've named you'd not want to bet against them covering the line on offer, however you'd also not want to bet against the Eels getting within the point-start on offer given how they played last week. All in all a good game to sit back and watch, with wallet safely locked away. Pick – no play
Cowboys -7.5 v Panthers 3 at 1.90 -3
The team that loses here will likely drop out of the top eight and given the Panthers extraordinary record at Dairy Farmers Stadium they'd be approaching this with some degree of confidence having won 8 of 11 matches they've played there. The Cowboys have the best halfback in the competition and a number of star players around him and they should be doing better and given their struggles away from home this year this match is one that is a milestone one for them, lose here and there finals chances are all of a sudden looking very slim, which is not good enough given the personnel. I for one believe they'll get the win here and win well, the Panthers were good last week against the Raiders but got decisions they shouldn't have and also came up against a far from impressive Raiders side on the night; the Cowboys have the playmakers to cause all sorts of trouble here, the Panthers are still without a bulk of experience and if they get behind in the game heads could drop and the knife will turn. Pick – 3 units on North Queensland -7.5 point start
Storm 13+ v Sharks 3 at 2.32 +3.96
This match could not have come at a better time for the Storm as I expect they will flex their muscles and remind us all of their premiership credentials against a relatively inexperienced Sharks side that lacks nothing of heart but are not on the same page as this Storm side man for man. The Storm came up against a very spirited Eels side last week and were taken somewhat by surprise as to just how well their opposition played, this week though there'll be no such surprises. The Storm welcome back their captain Cam Smith and Five-Eight Finch whilst the Sharks are still without their captain Gallen. The Storm are man for man a much much stronger side that the Sharks and they'll have had no shortage of a rark-up from their coach Craig Bellamy; sit back and enjoy a vintage Storm performance as they win by plenty. Pick – 3 units on to win by Storm 13+ (BEST BET)
Wests Tigers +3.5 v Raiders  2 at 1.90 +1.8
The Raiders were well below my expectations last week in losing to the Panthers and seem to sulk around like a kid who is missing its Mummy when playing away from home, which is definitely not the make-up of a champion side, regardless of how they play at home. The Tigers showed they're ready to move up a gear and make a good dash for the finals and could well cause many a headache given their tough uncompromising forward pack and backline that's hitting a good note. The Bookies have to install the Raiders as favourites at home given they do play well there but I do like the Tigers to make a very good fist of it here and at the very least get within the point start on offer as I do see glimpses of those 2005 premiership winning qualities in them. Pick – 2 units on Tigers +3.5 point start
Warriors to bt Dragons 2 at 2.88 -2
This is it for the Warriors, this week is their Everest - up against the top side in the competition in a match that if lost will certainly bury the small hope they have of making a charge for the 2009 finals. I definitely rate the home side with a chance here and believe last weeks win over the Roosters could be the spark that ignites this side, who really are, man for man, stacked with talent they've just lacked the fire that will almost certainly burn bright here. In Auckland the Warriors are a very tough side to beat and apart from their last match against the Bulldogs they've looked very impressive at home and there is certainly no shortage of motivation. They welcome back Price and the impressive Locke and given the dangerous nature of this side when they are forced into a corner, as they are now (and were last year in the Finals against Melbourne) I expect an 80 minute effort in front of what will be a large and vocal home crowd. Jones showed signs of good form last week and they'll need him to be near his best, and I expect the Little General to rise to the challenge. This same Warriors side should have beaten the Dragons earlier in the season if not for a missed field-goal and at home will have the belief and it’s worth getting on the generous odds on offer, there’ll be plenty of nervous Bookmakers heading into this match! Pick – 2 units on Warriors to win
Rabbitohs v Roosters NO PLAY
Neither of these sides have risen to any great heights since the round one massacre that had Russ Crowe thinking he was an Emperor of ancient times and saw the Roosters thrashed by 40 points. The Roosters finally welcome back Minichiello for this match who has had the captaincy thrust at him given Fitzgibbons absence but his addition on the Wing won't make a huge impact on their fortunes and given the Bunnies have the momentum behind them and are playing, in the last two games, as well as they have all season I'd expect another comfortable win here. Sutton and Sandow have reignited their dangerous partnership on attack and the whole side has had a personality transplant, getting that belief back into the side that went missing once their egos got over-inflated. Whilst I expect the Bunnies to get the win here I don't see it as a great betting match as the lines about right and the Roosters did show signs last week they're willing to fight to avoid the Wooden Spoon so could make this closer than expected, whether they have the personnel to do so is another question though. Pick – no play

 

NRL ROUND NINETEEN
Rabbitohs +4.5 v Broncos 2 at 1.94 +1.88
The Bunnies looked great last weekend against a depleted Panthers side, the true test comes this week though away from home against a Broncos side who themselves looked much better in their last outing in beating the NZ Warriors, with Carroll's presence lifting the side, they are however without the inured Lockyer, Thaiday and Folau for this match. The Broncos are rightfully favourites here but with the injuries they have and other players backing up from Wednesday’s origin it has somewhat evened things up and if the full-strength Bunnies can match last weeks defensive effort and completion rate then they have a good shot at the win. Taylor will have been hammering into his side that lasts weeks win counts for nothing if they fall short here and I am expecting another decent effort which should see them at least get within the point start on offer. Pick – 2 units on Souths +4.5 point start
Titans to bt Bulldogs 2 at 2.27 -2
It's been at this time over the last few seasons that the Titans have either begun or been in the midst of their slide down the table, with key injuries usually playing a part, it's a very different story this season though with them sitting pretty at third on the table and a fit and healthy squad that's getting the job done, with the added bonus this week of fresh players, with only Harrison turning out for Wednesdays origin, which is not the case for the Bulldogs who have three players backing up and a handful out through suspension/injury. Cartwright will be drumming it into his players that this is an opportunity they need to take, this is probably the strongest side they've named all season and have the chance to take second spot on the ladder; they have the attack led by Prince to cause the Dogs concern and I'll be surprised if two of the Dogs top playmakers - Kimmorley and Ennis are not a little lethargic with the 48 hour turnaround. I like the Titans to cause the upset. Pick – 2 units on Titans to win
Raiders to bt Panthers 3 at 1.95 -3
The Panthers got away with some very loose defence two weeks ago when they snuck past the Eels in a high scoring match, they couldn't however repeat their offensive effort last week when they let through plenty of tries in losing to the Rabbitohs. This is a milestone match for the Raiders 2009 season as it basically comes down to being a game they must win - a position they've dug themselves into through a lack of consistency. We've seen the Raiders battle when required to this season and they'll need that fight in them for the remaining rounds if they are to make the top eight. There are very few sides in the competition that's better to watch than the Raiders when they click and given the Panthers defensive woes of late I see this being a great chance for the visitors to pile on the points. The Panthers are still without Civonaceva and Lewis who've been missed both in leadership and go-forward, they've also missed the x-factor the injured Pritchard provides on attack and are also likely to be without Jennings in the Centres. I’m not convinced the Panthers will offer much on attack against this sea-saw Raiders side who have plenty of points in them and are ready to bounce back this week and start a late run for the finals. Pick – 3 units on Raiders to win (BEST BET)
Sharks v Sea Eagles NO PLAY
The Sea Eagles were brought back down to earth last week and will find it tough to bounce back in their expected fashion this week, with players backing up from origin and L'Estrange and Matai suspended they may just be a week short of getting back to top gear, against this inexperienced Sharks side though they should get the win even playing at 80%. The Sea Eagles forwards will win the metres gained battle and lay the platform for Orford and Lyon to create havoc for the Sharks defensive line, whilst at the other end I don't see too many points in the Sharks offence. Manly won the corresponding match last season 34-6 and I won’t fall off my seat if we see a similar score-line here, but I also won’t be shocked if it’s closer than expected. The Bookies have the margin about right here and there’s not a lot of value. Pick – no play
Roosters v Warriors NO PLAY
Both these sides (along with the Eels) are firm Wooden Spoon favourites for 2009, the Warriors cemented that tag after their shambles in Auckland last week in losing to a severely under-strength Bulldogs side with their inability to convert pressure and possession into points that has them sitting in 13th position. It's interesting that Cleary has not given Hohaia a little longer to establish himself as a five-eight, instead bringing in rookie Isaac Johns to fill that spot and it is only good fortune for Jones there's no competition at Halfback or else he'd have to be out of the side given his lack of presence and effectiveness on the field. The Roosters are in no better shape and this could really go either way, the Warriors of old were at their most dangerous and unpredictable when in this type of position but this 2009 version seem to have had the flare coached out of them. It's highly likely Price won't be fit for this clash which means Luck will again captain the side, and to say he's a poor mans Steve Price is a complete understatement. Toss a coin here; both sides are playing for pride which is something neither side have showed much of in 2009. Pick – no play
Wests Tigers -2.5 v Cowboys 3 at 1.91 +2.73
The Tigers flexed their muscles in their last outing against a hapless Rabbitohs side, running in over 50 points and showing what they're capable of, whilst the Cowboys also impressed two weeks back with their comprehensive win over the Sharks. The Tigers need to back up that win over the Bunnies with another strong performance here and with close to their strongest side named and no players backing up from origin they go into this fresh, knowing it's business time for season 2009, with every loss, particularly at home, putting a major dent in their finals aspirations. The Cowboys are without their enforcer O'Donnell and have three players backing up from Wednesday, two of which, if they play, will be carrying injuries - Thurston who looked 80% after an early knock on Wednesday and Tonga. I like the Tigers to get the job done here, they're slight favourites and should cover the narrow points margin, they have a good record over the Cowboys in Sydney and with Farah and Benji both fit and running the show they look like a side with plenty of points in them. Pick – 3 units on Wests -2.5 point start
Eels +6.5 v Storm 2 at 1.85 +1.7
The Eels have looked better and better over the last month and put in another spirited performance last week in narrowly losing to the Titans whilst the Storm did a Houdini in their last match against Newcastle, with a try at the death earning them an unlikely victory having been dominated the whole match. The Storm will be grateful for the Monday night game given they've got five players backing up from origin. The Eels will take another step up here as they look to build on the last few weeks and will want to distance themselves from Wooden Spoon contention. With Hayne back in the side to run things at fullback and Mortimer and Robson looking more and more comfortable in the Halves, along with a forward pack loaded with experience and who are also looking better each week, I see good value in the point start on offer to the home side. Daniel Anderson has made slow progress with the shambles he inherited from Michael Hagen and he'll be eyeing up this match as a chance see just what this side is capable of. Pick – 2 units on Eels +6.5 point start

 

NRL ROUND EIGHTEEN
Rabbitohs -5.0 v Panthers 3 at 1.97 +2.91
The Bunnies have been a shambles of late and last weeks defensive effort in conceding over 50 points to the Tigers was a disgrace; the Panthers on the other hand showed plenty of ticker in beating a defiant Eels side with a late try. The Panthers are without Lewis, Civonaceva, Waterhouse and Jennings for this match, whilst the Bunnies have Crocker and Wing out. The Bunnies have the attacking capabilities to hurt any side, it is their defence that is the obvious concern, they are however all worthy First-Graders and know how to tackle and I expect a huge lift in effort here, they're not only playing for their own careers, they're playing for the career of their coach and the pride of the club - back on home soil and up against a depleted Panthers outfit the Bunnies will definitely turn it around here with a Gladiatorial effort. Sutton has been trying too hard of late and the sides been suffering from incomplete sets, they'll focus here on a more simple game plan and a higher completion rate which I expect will pay dividends; the Panthers on the other hand will hurt without those key players mentioned above and I don't see a whole lot of points in them, up against what will be a desperate and much improved Bunnies defence. Bunnies to run away with this one. Pick – 3 units on Rabbitohs -5.5 or better point start (BEST BET)
Knights v Raiders NO PLAY
This one should go right down to the wire, the Raiders have been dazzling on attack in their last two games but they'll be disappointed with the way their defence let the Titans back into the match last week, whilst the Knights were unlucky to not come away with the win in their match against the Storm, doing everything but win the match. I don't see any real value here, the Knights are rightfully favourites at home given the quality of their play this season, the Raiders do have a side that is more than capable of getting up here though, whether we see the team that showed up last week in their first half effort or the side that nearly lost them the game in the second half will remain to be seen though. Neither side has a big advantage though origin absences, the Knights are without their captain Gidley and the Raiders without Shillington and Learoyd-Lahrs. Pick – no play
Warriors -6.5 v Bulldogs 2 at 1.91 -2
What a great opportunity this is for the Warriors, up against one of the top sides in the competition who are without nearly half their regular side through origin, suspension and injury with - Idris, Eastwood, Goodwin, Kimmorley, Morris, Hannant and Ennis all missing, whilst the Warriors have Price out but welcome back the human wrecking ball Manu Vatuvai. The Dogs kicking game and go-forward around dummy-half is going to struggle without Kimmorley and Ennis respectively, and as a result points could be at a premium for the visitors. The worry for the Warriors is the lack of leadership from anyone when Price was off the field last week against the Broncos, he was single-handedly grabbing the side bye the collars and pulling them along, without him on the park though they lost their way and it will be down to the likes of senior players Jones, Luck, Mannering and co to lift their own presence on the field this week and steer the ship. The Warriors have not conceded a point at home in their last two matches there and I expect another huge effort on defence this week. Realistically the Warriors can pretty much kiss their top eight chances goodbye, the team however won't have given up hope and I expect will make a good fist of it, starting here with a good win over the depleted Dogs. Pick – 2 units on Warriors -6.5 point start
Dragons v Sea Eagles NO PLAY
Both these sides have plenty of winning momentum behind them going into this clash but both line-ups are depleted for this with the Dragons missing four regulars and Manly missing six. The Dragons still have a very strong side for this match, with at least five players taking the field who could just as easily and deservedly be playing for their state on Wednesday, the state’s loss is the Dragons gain though and the Bookies have recognised this with the heavy favouritism tag they've given the home side. The Dragons have very good cover for those players missing, this is a match they really should win, the Bookies have the line about right here though. Pick – no play
Titans v Eels NO PLAY
Just when other sides are losing players to injury and rep footy the Titans have the unusual luxury of welcoming a number of their big guns back for this match and, with the exception of Harrison (origin), have named close to their strongest side available, whilst the Eels just lose the one player from the side that narrowly lost to Penrith - their star fullback Hayne. Even though the Titans have named a very strong side there's a chance of a few cobwebs, with a number of players making their first appearance in a while, and with the gusto the Eels showed in their play against the Panthers last week this match could be closer than their respective ladder placing suggest. There's no doubt the Titans deserve their firm favouritism and if the Eels don't show up to play then this could get real ugly, something tells me the visitors will front though but whether that's enough to get them within the point-start on offer is not worth prising open your wallets for. Pick – no play

 

NRL ROUND SEVENTEEN
Broncos -7.5 v Warriors 3 at 1.96 +2.88
Both of these sides are going through a very poor patch of form but with the shocking form the Warriors have on the road and the personnel the Broncos welcome back into their side this week (Folau, Hodges and Carroll!!), they are without fullback Hunt but I still only see this match going one way. The Warriors away from home are half the side defensively and not much more offensively as what we see when they play in Auckland and they appear to be going backwards in this regard with yet another shocker from them last week in losing to the Titans. The Warriors are going to struggle to contain the Broncos backline - which contains five current origin rep players - and I expect Toni Carroll's presence from out of retirement to have a very positive effect on lifting the forwards to much higher levels than we've seen in recent weeks, and in front of a big Brisbane crowd I expect the home side to put in their best performance of the season and win this comfortably. Pick – 3 units on Broncos -7.5 point start
Dragons v Roosters NO PLAY
This match-up has promised so much in the past but with both these sides having headed in opposite directions in 2009 and even the Roosters breaking their drought of wins last week against the Sharks won't change that. The Dragons do enjoy a very favourable recent record over the Roosters and with the form they are currently in I expect the score line to get ugly here, they offer way too much on attack for the lacklustre Roosters defence to be able to handle and with an uncompromising defence that will easily repel whatever the Chooks throw at them. The Bookies have a big line here and I agree with it - no play. Pick – no play
Rabbitohs v Wests Tigers NO PLAY
Both of these sides really needed the win last week to breath some hope into their top 8 chances but neither came through with the goods, the Tigers going down in an uninspiring performance to the Dragons whilst the Rabbitohs score line was flattered by two late tries in going down to the Knights. There's no clear edge for either of these sides, I never like it when there's talk about player disharmony in a side as we've heard about the Bunnies this week but whether that carries over onto the field this week will remain to be seen, one thing is for sure here - this is not a great betting match as neither side inspires a lot of confidence and the result is definitely in the balance. At a push I’d say the Tigers to win, provided they can get their terrible completion rate up. Stay clear of this one though. Pick – no play
Storm -8.0 v Knights 2 at 1.92 -2
We'll see a fresher Storm side take the field here after a number of their stars had to back up last week against Canberra and perhaps were not at their blistering best, back at home and with some time to rest they'll be a much tougher prospect and given the Knights 2009 record they certainly won't be taking them easy. The Knights built their win over the Bunnies last week around a very solid forwards effort and none were as impressive as Fa'aoso who was hitting the line as hard as anyone I've seen, their second half display was as impressive as they come and blew the Bunnies away with their intensity and speed, they won't have the luxury of their home fans cheering them on here though and are up against a Storm side who very rarely lose at home and who are desperate to stay in touch of the top couple of sides. The Knights will find the Storm defensive line much tougher to crack than the Bunnies were and if the Storm playmakers come to the par-tay (which they will) we'll see plenty of points to the home side. Pick – 2 units on Storm -8.5 or better point start
Cowboys -12.5 v Sharks 3 at 1.97 +2.91
The Cowboys were well short of their best last week against a rampant Bulldogs side in Sydney, it's a different story here though with a side that'll be much more fresh and playing back in Townsville. The Sharks brave run of wins came to a halt last week against the Roosters and with Gallen and Barrett both out of this clash it's going to be a long night for the Sharks against the Cowboys side h top four aspirations. There are too many playmakers within the Cowboys side and they'll be busying themselves all night, causing the Sharks defence all sorts of troubles whilst on the other hand I don't expect the young and inexperienced Sharks attack to cause to many troubles in the Townsville cauldron. Pick – 3 units on Cowboys -12.5 point start (BEST BET)
Raiders HT/FT v Titans 3 at 2.17 +3.51
The Raiders played their best match of the season last week in beating the Storm, they looked very sharp on attack, particularly out wide, it's consistency they've struggled with this year though which is why they're sitting outside of the top eight. The Raiders are as good as any in the competition when it all clicks and they will have celebrated that victory over the Storm with a degree of calm, knowing that if they don't back it up this week (and weeks to come) then it all basically amounts to nothing. the Raiders have destroyed the Titans over the last two seasons playing in Canberra with a combined points aggregate favouring the home side 102-14. I like Campese to back up his effort last week with another top performance and for the Raiders side to again lift and dominate from the opening whistle. Pick – 3 units on Raiders/Raiders half/fulltime double
Panthers v Eels NO PLAY
The Eels surprised last week in upsetting the Broncos, they've not put in strong back to back performances yet in 2009 though so I wouldn't go re-mortgaging the house based on that effort. Both these sides have points n them and both have more often than not been susceptible on defence in 2009 so we could see I high scoring affair here. The Panthers are favourites and have been the more consistent of the two, especially at home, but I don't see this as a good betting match as the Eels could surprise, Hayne seems to be on a one-way mission to single-handedly win matches these days (and is doing a fine job of it mostly) so if the side get in behind the star fullback anything is possible. Pick – no play
Sea Eagles -2.5 v Bulldogs 2 at 1.91 +1.82
Both these sides are in excellent form, the Bulldogs have basically maintained the same level of play all season whilst the Sea Eagles, once they woke from their defending-premier slumber, have been close to their best but can still get better and this will be the perfect marker for them to see how far they've come since the opening round where they lost to the Dogs by 22 points. I like the Sea Eagles to get up here, they've named a very strong side that's hitting their straps and will not lack any motivation in front of their home fans, looking to knock over a top of the table side and continue their march up the ladder. Pick – 2 units on Manly -2.5

 

NRL ROUND SIXTEEN
Wests Tigers to bt Dragons 1 at 3.04 -1
Wests Tigers +8.0 v Dragons 3 at 1.91 -3
The Dragons continue to roll through teams, with their latest victory coming two weeks ago over the Cowboys, whilst the Tigers continue their slide down the table after yet another loss to the Storm last week, they did however show enough positive signs to indicate they will be competitive here, especially given the return of Farah to the line-up. The Dragons brilliant play is built around an uncompromising defence that could just take an attack as unpredictable as the Tigers to break it, providing they put their handling woes aside, which they look to have done so, they will need to put in a mammoth defensive effort here though and match the Dragons muscle up front which they are capable of doing. The Tigers have won 6 of their last 7 against the Dragons and they are now in the last-chance-saloon in terms of season 2009, with everything to play for and in front of their home fans I think we'll see an overdue performance from the Tigers who offer good value with the point start. Pick – 3 units on Tigers +7.5 or better point start (BEST BET) and 1 unit on Tigers to win.
Bulldogs v Cowboys NO PLAY
The Cowboys were courageous last week in downing the Roosters, doing so without their four best players who they welcome back for this clash against a Bulldogs side that's riding high but will step cautiously onto the field here given their recent 0-4 record against the Cowboys. I expect this to be a close one which makes the point start on offer tempting, however it's not tempting enough, the Dogs deserve the favouritism but given the Cowboys recent strong form and record against the Dogs this result is certainly in the balance. Pick – no play.
Warriors to bt Titans  2.5 at 2.72 -2.5
The Titans enter this clash following a two week break and with a few injury clouds hanging over their side, presenting the Warriors with an opportunity to silence the critics who are questioning their heart and desire when playing away from Auckland. I can't see a better opportunity than this for the Warriors to strike and build on their last outing defensively where they kept the Knights scoreless, they're also looking a much better side offensively with Hohaia at Five-Eighth, taking pressure off Jones to produce the big plays. This is it for the Warriors, they must make a statement here and win away from Auckland, if not then the season is all but gone. We've seen time and again they're able to lift and I believe they've got the team and the motivation this week to turn a few heads. Pick – 2.5 units on Warriors to win.
Sharks to bt Roosters  2 at 1.93 -2
The less said about the Roosters the better, they seemed to believe their whole season had fallen into place after 5 minutes last week and let their foot off the pedal against a depleted Cowboys side who strolled through their pathetic defensive line. With Anasta now out for the season and Pearce hardly setting the world on fire it's hard to see this side winning another game this season (they will though but I pity the side who lose to this bunch). I'd normally count on the coach to shoot from the hip and offer some words/actions to spur the side into action but Fittlers actions on Friday night in Townsville says it all. The Sharks were very impressive last week against the Broncos and have confirmed they've well and truly turned the corner with a kicking game that's on the money, a defence that's getting tougher to breach each week and pace out wide to finish things off, I don't expect them to miss Barrett too much and should trample the Roosters here. Pick – 2 units on Sharks -1.5 or better.
Raiders to bt Storm 1 at 2.72 +1.72
Raiders +6.0 v Storm 2 at 1.91 +1.82
The Raiders clicked last week against Manly, the only problem was it came too late after giving up a 20 point margin. The Raiders are at full strength here and, like many other sides this week, it's basically do or die for them, they do have the bonus of facing the Storm without their star Inglis and potentially others, depending on who is backing up from origin. I am a great believer in this Raiders side, particularly in front of their home fans, and have seen them perform to levels rivalling all this season, they've struggled with consistency but this match we'll see them at their best with Campese putting his hand up for an Origin recall. Pick – 2 units on Raiders +5.5 or better point start and 1 unit on Raiders to win.
Broncos -3.0 v Eels 2.5 at 1.95 -2.5
The Eels slide continued in their last match with a horrible performance against the Sharks, showing very little on attack and not much more on defence. The Broncos are hardly inspiring anyone to reach for their wallets here given their atrocious form in the last three matches, conceding a record number of points whilst offering close to nothing on attack, they do however welcome back some very heavy artillery in Lockyer, Folau, Hunt and Thaiday, (as well as Wallace) so the big turnaround is on. This is understandably a narrow margin from the Bookies but they're missing the bigger picture here, the Broncos are a good team in rough form and could snap this at any time, but the Eels are an average team in form that's not playing too far below expectations. I like the Broncos to muscle up here and get some respectability back into their side, starting with their defence that I expect will make amends for the last three weeks. Pick – 2.5 units on Broncos -3.5 or better point start.
Knights v Rabbitohs NO PLAY
The Knights continue to impress with their consistency and even though the Warriors kept them scoreless in Auckland two weeks ago they were still in the match right up until the 75th minute. I'm not going to say too much here, I've been expecting a drop in intensity from the Knights to come but it hasn't, whilst on the other hand I've been expecting a big raise in intensity from the Bunnies but it's not come, I'm still expecting both to happen though but whether it's here is not a gamble worth taking. Pick – no play.

 

STATE OF ORIGIN II
New South Wales vs Queensland
With all the talk recently being about how great this Queensland side is and how we’ve not seen such origin dominance for many many years this match stands out as one where the Cockroaches can crawl from their sheltered existence and prove that they too have a decent side, especially on home soil, who are able to upset the star-studded Queenslanders. There is certainly a lot to like in the NSW side, who will be better off with Barrett’s and Gallen’s inclusion, two players that have the experience and form to shift the weight of balance somewhat from Origin One. The NSW side have a forward pack capable of shutting down the Queenslanders and I believe they will be up for the challenge, providing a platform for the team to launch from. Passion is everything in Origin football and not for a very long time has there been more motivation for the NSW side than there is for this clash, they have pride to restore and a reputation to uphold, lose here and they’re well and truly staring down the barrel of a 3-nil series whitewash. The home side will lift and off the back of a dominant forward display I see the experience of Barrett, Lyons, Monaghan, Hayne and Gidley lighting up the backline to seal the upset win.
Pick – NSW to win

 

NRL ROUND FIFTEEN
Bulldogs -9.5 v Panthers 2 at 1.90 -2
The Panthers had a dreadful completion rate last week and were lucky Manly butchered a number of plays or else the score could have been much uglier; it doesn't come much tougher for them than this weeks match against a very impressive looking Bulldogs side who are at near full strength (just Hannant out for Origin) and having to take the field without their three aces - Civoniceva, Lewis and Jennings, they've also lost fullback Coote to a long term injury which sees Sammut move back to Fullback. The Dogs mauled the Broncos last week in Brisbane with basically the same side we'll see take the field here and there is nothing that tells me this won't be an even more comprehensive victory this week - I expect a stronger defensive effort this week and much of the same on attack, with Roberts and Kimmorley laying it on across the park. Pick – 2 units on Bulldogs -9.5 point start
Roosters to bt Cowboys 3 at 1.95 -3
Even though they lost last week to the Titans it was refreshing to finally see some spirit within the Roosters side - an urgency we've not seen for a while and glimpses of attack that we had expected from them all along in 2009. The Cowboys are without their four best players for this - Thurston, Bowen, O’Donnell and Tonga, all players that are imperative to the Cowboys attacking structure of play and they will be missed badly. I'm not convinced the Cowboys will have any real potency on attack here and with Ty Williams playing at the unaccustomed Fullback position I expect plenty of testing kicks from Anasta and Pierce to go his way. The Roosters will take heart from that narrow loss last week, they don't have a bad record in Townsville and are fielding a settled side that should get an overdue win here. Pick – 3 units on Roosters to win (BEST BET)
Storm -5.5 v Wests Tigers 2 at 1.92 -2
The Storm have been disappointing over recent years around this time with Origin stars missing and I feel this match will be one where the players and stand-in coach Kearney really try and prove a point. The Storm are not being hit as hard as previous seasons with players out through origin with just four regulars missing and looking through the team sheet there is still a wealth of talent and experience taking the field. The Tigers are still a long way off their best and apart from a final 10 minute haul of points last week against the Eels I felt they were average, they lose Farah for this clash leaving Marshall, who is also nowhere near his best, with much more of the attacking burden. The Storm are going to be tough to crack and I question whether the Tigers have the offensive firepower to cause too many concerns, whilst the Storm forward pack will make plenty inroads, giving Finch and Cronk plenty of opportunities to continue to show their hand attacking the Tigers line. The line from the Bookies is closer than I expected, the Tigers have not won in Melbourne in seven attempts and I expect will fall well short here. Pick – 2 units on Storm -5.5 or better
Sea Eagles v Raiders NO PLAY
The Raiders were nothing short of poor last week losing to the Sharks in a match they should have been well and truly up for following their good showing against the Rabbitohs the previous week. The Raiders have a very poor recent record against Manly (they've lost 6 of the last 7 encounters) but won't get a better chance than this to beat them given the home side is without five of their stars through Origin. Canberra are often at their best when they're on the rebound and are a much better side than their position on the table suggests, if they have the attitude right then they're as tough as any and after the Sharks disappointment I don't imagine they'll have any shortage of motivation here. Manly could struggle in the yardage department without regulars Watmough, Stewart and Kite, whilst Lyons absence will put a lot more pressure on Orford, who the Raiders will certainly look to shut down. The Green Machine should make this a competitive match but with their inconsistency and poor record away from home (and particularly poor recent record against Manly) it’s best to sit this one out. Pick – no play
Sharks v Broncos NO PLAY
This a tale of two sides that have gone in opposite directions in recent weeks with the Broncos suffering their second consecutive heavy defeat last week at the hands of the Bulldogs whilst the Sharks scored their third win in a row with their victory over the Raiders. The Broncos are without a host of players this week due to Origin and are fielding a very green side, whilst the Sharks are without two of the players that have been instrumental to their revival - Barrett and Gallen; just how well the Sharks will go without the two mentioned is hard to know, especially given the hand Barrett's had in nearly all of their offensive turnaround. This match will test the depth and character of both sides and the result really is in the balance. Pick – no play

 

NRL ROUND FOURTEEN
Broncos v Bulldogs NO PLAY
I expect Brisbane will bounce back here following their poor showing against the Storm last week and as long as both Wallace and Lockyer play we should see a return to the crisp attacking flair that's got them to where they are on the table, they are up against a very good Bulldogs side though who are coming off a loss themselves. With all the talk of Swine Flu there's a chance one or both of these sides will have players missing, or at least their preparations interrupted, which could have some bearing on the outcome. The Broncos are still without Hodges with his absence proving very costly last week as the backline faltered against a quick Storm defensive line, something similar to what they'll face here. I like the home side to take this but it's not one to have a punt on as the Bulldogs have very strong credentials. Pick – no play
Warriors -2.5 v Knights 3 at 1.90 +2.7
Even given the Warriors lack of penetration and poor execution last week in losing to the Sharks I can't go past them coming away with the victory here over a Knights side they have performed well against over recent years, who themselves are coming off a disappointing loss to the Eels and are without their star player and captain Kurt Gidley. The Warriors are a different side at home and I believe we'll see a similar defensive effort to what they put in two weeks back when they kept the Tigers scoreless, they have scored one hundred less points than the Knights this season but I expect this will be a match based more on defence than attack and the Warriors will be better off with Moon not playing given his complete miss-firing at Five-Eighth, with Hohaia coming in as replacement. This match means more in the context of the Warriors season than it does to the Knights with a loss to the home side here, given the matches they have in front of them, making the task of climbing into the top eight very very tough. I expect the Warriors senior players to step up here and lead the way; the dropping of Ropati for this match puts everyone on notice with Ivan Cleary's patience clearly running out and nothing short of a win will stop him from wielding the axe some more. Pick – 3 units on Warriors -3.5 or better point start. (BEST BET)
Roosters v Titans NO PLAY
The train wreck that is the Roosters continued to roll on last week with another uninspiring performance in losing to Manly, whilst the Titans put in their best first-half of football of the season against the Dragons, eventually holding out the competition leaders for the win. This match has a big 'DANGER KEEP OUT' sign all over it, the Titans have been mostly ordinary away from the Gold Coast so far this season whilst the Roosters, as bad as they've been, have too many players with too much proven potential to continue to lose each week and a win is just around the corner, it’s a long and winding road though. Pick – no play
Sea Eagles-1.5 v Panthers 2 at 1.92 +1.84
Manly's season resurgence continued last week with a comprehensive win over the Eels with their defence looking stronger and stronger each week and will be called on here against a Panthers side lacking nothing in confidence on attack. The Panthers are without their star Centre Jennings and the impressive Luke Lewis, both of whom have been stand-out performers for them, particularly on attack, whilst the Manly side is close to their strongest. I see ominous signs from Manly's senior players who've led this mini transformation in the side and I like the Eagles to soar here. The Panthers did get the win over Wests last week but it was off the back of one of the most error ridden performances the Tigers have ever put in, almost handing the game to the Panthers on a platter, they certainly will not get the same offerings here from the clinical Manly side. Pick – 2 units on Manly -1.5 point start
Rabbitohs v Storm NO PLAY
Jason Taylor must be infuriated with what he's seen from his Rabbitohs side lately, capped off with a humiliating thrashing by the Cowboys last week with errors, lack of intensity, poor defence and general lack of cohesion characterising their play. The Bunnies could really do with a home crowd of loyal fans to cheer them on this week but instead their 'home' match is being played in Perth, on neutral ground, which will suit the rampaging Storm side just fine as they look to carry on their momentum following their very comprehensive win over the Broncos last week, looking every bit the premiership favourites when everything clicks, which it did last week. It looks like the Storm have uncovered another possible star in Tomane on the wing and with the class they already have right across the park, all playing with the skill, accuracy and desire we've come to expect from this side, they will be way too strong for the struggling Bunnies, who have lost their last seven in a row to the Storm. Unfortunately the Bookies have the line about right here with a very generous points margin. Pick – no play
Raiders -7.5 v Sharks 2 at 1.90 -2
The Raiders last outing two weeks ago was their best performance of the season, getting the win over the Rabbitohs, they welcome back Campese into the side for this clash whose offensive input will add to their impressive arsenal and if Learoyd-Lahrs, Tongue, Herbert, Monaghan and co can play to that same level then the Sharks will be punished. The Sharks have shown plenty of ticker over the last fortnight but both wins have come over struggling sides - the Eels and the Warriors. The Raiders will certainly not be taking the Sharks lightly given the Sharks have won their last four matches at Canberra Stadium, but they are a very different side to that of seasons past. The Raiders will heap pressure on Sharks danger men - Barrett, Gallen and Tupou and I expect more of what we saw from their Souths outing and for the pace of the game to be too much for the visiting Sharks. I expect the Raiders to win this one comfortably. Pick – 2 units on Raiders -7.5 point start
Dragons -3.5 v Cowboys 2 at 1.90 +1.8
The Cowboys have been great their last few matches, both of which were played in Townsville though and they've shown this season they struggle to lift to that same level away from home. The Dragons second half performance last week showed the depth of character in this side, falling just short of what would have been a great comeback against the Titans, they will be the better off for this match having been truly tested by the Titans though whilst the Cowboys haven’t been challenged their last two matches with easy wins over Souths and Newcastle. The margin on offer here is narrow and I like the Dragons to bounce back with a fairly comfortable win. Jamie Soward’s kicking game is still the best in the NRL and I expect him to exploit the height advantage the Dragons have out wide with some testing kicks towards Matt Bowan and Ty Williams. The Dragons offer too much across the park here and will bounce back from last weeks disappointment. Pick – 2 units on Dragons -4.5 or better point start
Eels v Wests Tigers NO PLAY
The Tigers completion rate last week against the Panthers was the worst of any side I've seen in a long long time and the fact they were still in the game with 10 minutes to go was a minor miracle considering they dropped the ball nearly every time they were on attack. Until the Tigers go back to basics and stop pushing miracle passes they are going to be a hit and miss side, just like their opposition this week the Eels. The Eels have won the last 8 clashes between these sides and will take confidence from last weeks win over Newcastle and will be especially happy with the performance from their halves combo of Robson and Mortimer, who played well in an area the Eels have really struggled this season. This is another game that has a very large DANGER DO NOT ENTER sign over it for Punters. Pick – no play

 

NRL ROUND THIRTEEN
Storm v Broncos NO PLAY
The Storm were disappointing in their last outing going down heavily to the Bulldogs, prior to that performance though they were showing glimpses of being back to their best and up against a premiership rival here I expect their true colours to again shine. The Storm have a very good record over the Broncos in recent memory, winning 5 of their last 6 encounters but with both sides smattered with stars backing up from Wednesday's origin this match could turn into somewhat of a lottery, depending on who ends up taking the field - I don't see this being a good value option. Pick – no play
Wests Tigers to bt Panthers 3 at 1.91 -3
With four losses on the trot it is this game the Tigers must look to turn it around, against a Penrith side that’s punched above its weight this season but were shown up quite badly last week after being thrashed by the Dragons. Tim Sheens has resisted the urge to make wholesale changes for this match which is a wise move from the master coach as I have little doubt the side that has taken the field in recent weeks is good enough to beat any on their day and whether Farah is back or not I still see this going all the way of the home side who will lift at Leichhardt Oval. No side likes being held scoreless as the Tigers were last week, we'll see a big forwards effort here and a more simplified and effective offence who'll get the job done against a Panthers side who have three of their stars backing up from origin. Pick – 3 units on Wests Tigers to win (BEST BET).
Sea Eagles v Roosters NO PLAY
While Manly are still not close to their 2008 form they have shown big improvement in their recent outings, particularly around a defence that's muscling up and making life difficult for opposition attack, they may not have to call on much of their defensive prowess in this match though given what the Roosters have shown on attack this season. One thing that worries me about out of touch teams, and the Roosters are no different this week, is at what point do they hit the wall and turn things around, even if only for one match. We've had talk in the media about 'soul searching' and player/coach meetings that have taken place this week amongst the Roosters and I will be very surprised if we don't see a marked improvement from the side that was hammered by the Panthers as there's enough leadership and quality players in the side to turn the season around. One really feels they just needed to clear the air and sort out whatever it is that's been leading to such a lack of enthusiasm and commitment in their play - this week of action should well have done that. Unfortunately for the Roosters though they're up against a Manly side who are on the improve and are very tough to beat at Brookvale Oval and until I see that change in attitude take place I refuse to go near them again, it could well be this week but who knows. Pick – no play
Rabbitohs +9.5 v Cowboys 2 at 1.91 -2
Souths up and down nature in 2009 makes tipping their matches more difficult than most, what we do know though is when they turn up ready to play they are a very dangerous side and given the blasting I expect they've received from Jason Taylor following Monday nights loss to the Raiders I think we'll see a more disciplined and enthusiastic Rabbitohs outfit here, up against a side they have beaten in their last four encounters. The Cowboys had the Bye last week and prior to that were riding high following a comprehensive win over the Knights, led by Thurston who will again be a heavy influence providing he backs up from Origin. The Souths Halves of Sutton and Sandow will be the better off for having played back together last week and after a further weeks training I expect a big improvement on last weeks effort. I see this being a closer match than the line from the Bookies suggest, we'll see a different Souths side in attitude and discipline than that which took the field on Monday night so watch out Cowboys. Pick – 2 units on Souths +8.5 or better point start.
Warriors -1.5 v Sharks 2 at 1.91 -2
Both these sides broke from losing streaks last week, with both wins highlighted by stellar defensive efforts - the Warriors holding Wests scoreless and the Sharks letting just 10 points in against the Eels, which could suggest a low scoring arm wrestle here as neither of these sides has shown much on attack of late either. Out of both these sides it is realistically only the Warriors that have any sort of show at making the eight this year and if they are to indeed get there it is these games they must start to win. The Sharks will take heart from last weeks win but they are still offering nothing on attack, lacking any real x-factor within the side, whilst the Warriors have that x-factor in a number of positions. Warriors to win and cover the narrow margin. Pick – 2 units on NZ Warriors -2.5 or better point start.
Knights v Eels NO PLAY
The Knights bounced back following their big loss to the Cowboys to beat the high-flying Bulldogs last week, doing so without Gidley who they welcome back for this match against an Eels side that were as disappointing as the Knights were impressive, going down to the previously struggling Sharks in front of the Eels faithful. I like a number of the Knights players who’ve stepped up this season, particularly DeGois and Mullen, whereas too many Eels players seem to have rested on their laurels this season, only rising for the odd match. The lines about right here from the Bookies, the Knights are very tough to beat at home and you'd expect them to win but the Eels can certainly play better than they showed last week so it's got the potential to go down to the wire, best to leave this match alone though. Pick – no play
Titans v Dragons NO PLAY
The level of consistency the Dragons are playing at this season is phenomenal and have not shown any signs of lowering the high standards they've set, which was highlighted with last weeks very comprehensive win over the Panthers. This is the Titans toughest test at home this year and given the strong reputation they hold playing at Skilled Park one would bet against them this week with some trepidation, however, they have not beaten the Dragons (having lost all 5 encounters) and with the intensity and accuracy the Dragons continue to show one would bet against them with even more trepidation! Soward's kicking game has been second to none and Brett Morris continues to be very unforgiving to any side that allows him space, but most of all the whole Dragons side has lifted for each match and have responded better than could be imagined to Wayne Bennett's coaching style and motivational abilities. There are arguments each way for both these sides and from our point of view it's best to leave this match out of the equation. Pick – no play

 

NRL ROUND TWELVE
Dragons -6.0 v Panthers 2.5 at 1.93 +2.32
The Panthers have lost three of their stars to Origin whilst the Dragons have lost four. The 2009 Dragons are a champion team and I expect they won't miss a beat here, and with players taking the field that have done the damage for them all season they should make this their fifth win in a row over the Panthers. The Panthers do not have the same depth of leadership and talent the Dragons have and will really miss Civoniceva's influence on the field, whilst the Dragons have no shortage of experienced campaigners who won't miss a beat this week. Short and sweet - the Dragons are just too strong in the forwards and way too strong in the backs, they have many more attacking options than the Panthers and a defence that will be as tough as they've been all season. Pick – 2.5 units on Dragons -6.5 or better point start.
Eels -5.5 v Sharks 2.5 at 1.92 -2.5
Looking through both the team sheets for this match you'd be excused for scratching your head trying to put faces to a lot of the names, let alone trying to figure out each of their strengths and weaknesses. The Eels are at least looking like they're on the up (it's a flat gradient) which I can't say for the Sharks whose lack of attack and paper thin defence is quite simply depressing to watch. Both these sides lose their best player for this match, Gallen for the Sharks and Hayne for the Eels. The Eels have at least shown glimpses of brilliance this season and did well to earn the draw last week against Souths, I do like the look of their forward pack lined up against the Sharks and the Halves at least showed some attacking capabilities last week. I like the home side here to build on that drawn effort last week and secure a fairly comfortable win over the embattled Sharkies. Pick – 2.5 units on Eels -6.5 or better point start.
Warriors v Wests Tigers NO PLAY
The Warriors have owned the Tigers in recent years, having beaten them in 5 of their last 6 matches, but this New Zealand side is playing with such a lack of confidence and direction that for the well attuned sports punter they're almost unbackable. The Tigers have lost their skipper Farah for this match but coped remarkably well without him last week in very narrowly losing to the high flying Broncos, whilst the Warriors have lost their captain Steve Price which means it is now time for some of the other senior players in the Warriors line-up to put their hands up. I do like the Warriors to turn it round here in front of their home fans but like I said, the way they're playing they are certainly not a safe option. I care about your wallets and recommend keeping them firmly in your pockets for this match. Pick – no play.
Bulldogs -2.0 v Knights 3 at 1.92 -3
The Bulldogs this season, along with St George, are a champion team and not necessarily a team full of individual stars (although a number of them would certainly not be out of place playing Origin) which means for this week they're relatively unaffected by Origin selection (just Hannant out) - which suits us just fine as they're up against a Knights side who are missing the heart and soul of their team - Kurt Gidley. The Bulldogs have been playing refreshingly consistent football in 2009 and with the strength of the side taking the field here I see no reason why not to get behind them. Newcastle were average against the Cowboys last week but they have surprised me with their high level of play in 2009, the key player behind their run of good form again though has been Gidley and without him they lose a lot of attacking impetus which is going to hurt against the very well organised defence of the Bulldogs. Pick – 3 units on Bulldogs -2.5 or better point start (BEST BET).
Raiders +7.5 v Rabbitohs 2 at 1.83 +1.66
Raiders to bt Rabbitohs 1 at 2.80 +1.8
Souths lose Wing and Crocker to Origin this week while the Raiders are without their chief playmaker Campese. The Raiders have faired well against the Bunnies recently having won the last three encounters, and given they are coming off their best performance of the season in thrashing the Warriors they will approach this match with a degree of confidence. The Raiders biggest problem is lifting their game away from home but I strongly believe that performance last week will go a long way towards this weeks effort and I like them to run close to Souths here. Souths are up against a more impressive attacking outfit (when the Raiders are playing with confidence - which they are!) than they came across in the draw with the Eels last week. I like the Raiders to at least get within the point start on offer. Pick – 2 units on Canberra +7.5 point start and 1 unit on Raiders to win.

 

NRL ROUND ELEVEN
Wests Tigers v Broncos NO PLAY
The Tigers have a few niggling injuries going into this match, not least of which sees their captain and best player Robbie Farah in doubt, they have even brought John Skandalis out of retirement to add some experience to their inexperienced side and when lined up against the Broncos side the gulf of talent and experience is large. I do expect the Tigers to lift for what is their 10th anniversary celebration but the Broncos showed ominous signs last week and with Folau now looking very much at home in their backline he could well feast on the opposition defence again but the line on offer is about right here and again there’s better value matches this round. Pick – no play
Eels v Rabbitohs NO PLAY
The Rabbitohs showed plenty of ticker last week in clawing their way back against the Tigers, whilst the Eels go into this match fresh off yet another comprehensive defeat, this time at the hands of a resurgent Manly. The Bunnies go into this with by far the better side on paper and with Michael Crocker having gotten his feet further under the table I expect them to have far too much firepower. Souths do not have the strongest of defences but even they shouldn't be too troubled by what the Eels have to throw at them with an attack led by the inexperienced Halves combo of Reddy and Robson. Having said this I would still approach this match with some degree of caution as the lines about right from the Bookies and the Eels did show against the Cowboys a few weeks back they're capable of surprising - not a great game to make money on. Pick – no play
Sharks v Dragons NO PLAY
Whilst the Sharks still didn't manage to get the win last week against the Panthers at least they did finally come in for us with the point start and are at least starting to show some promising signs on attack but with another slap in the face for the club with news of Maitua’s indiscretion and probable long-term absence from the NRL along with the news of their loss of LG sponsorship who knows just what further depth they could sink to in 2009. The Sharks have won 4 of their last 5 games against the Dragons but these are two very different sides to years gone past and the Dragons are playing far too consistently for me to suggest this will be any other result than a win to them, again though the line is about right here and I believe there are safer options out there this weekend. Pick – no play
Storm -3.5 v Bulldogs 2 at 1.90 -2
Just what sort of effect last weeks shocking video ref decision which cost them the match against the Dragons will have on the momentum of the Bulldogs will remain to be seen, with a week dominated by 'that decision' is not what's needed building up to this Storm match, a side that has beaten them in their last 5 matches by an average winning margin of 26 points. The Storm looked very sharp in hammering the Raiders but this is a step up in class and I am confident they showed enough signs on attack and that characteristic Storm defence of old to suggest they are about to go on a fairly decent run - starting with this match. I like the Bulldogs this season, they're tough, gutsy and consistent but I feel the difference between these sides will be the game breakers, and there's no shortage of them in the Storm side. This won't be another 26-pointer but it should be comfortable enough to cover the narrow margin to the visitors. Pick – 2 units on Storm -2.5 point start
Roosters +8.0 v Panthers 2.5 at 1.95 -2.5
The Panthers continue to laugh off the pre-season chatter of Wooden Spoon status and sit at 7th after their win over the Sharks last weekend whilst the Roosters team doctor needs to start checking his players for vital organs such as hearts and spines following yet another poor effort against the Knights, I do however see some glimmer of hope for them this week against a side they'll approach with a degree of confidence given their recent history (they've won 6 from last 8 games). The Panthers lose Waterhouse for this match with Pritchard starting in his place whilst the Roosters lose Fitzgibbon and Soliola but have very capable replacements in Shackleton and Aubusson. Defensively both these sides are pretty average so in what I expect could be another high scorer I am looking at Pierce/Anasta to finally remind us what they can do and for the forward pack that's stacked with quality (on paper at least) to guide the embattled club to some respectability this week, if not with the win then at least with a nail-biter so I like the point start on offer from the Bookies. Pick – 2.5 units on Roosters +6.5 or better point start
Raiders to bt Warriors 2 at 1.91 +1.82
It's always tough to split two struggling sides that are both coming off towelling’s the week before, the Warriors being hammered by the Cowboys in Auckland whilst the Raiders were thrashed by the Storm in Melbourne. The Warriors record at Canberra Stadium is awful (7-1), having not won there since 1997 and I'm confident to back the home side to make it 8-1 and celebrate Joel Monaghan’s 100th match for the Green-Machine in style with a win. Canberra's starting side have a shot at redemption with an unchanged line-up named from that which got hammered by the Storm, whilst the Warriors are less settled with Fien dropped and Moon coming into Five-Eighth, Ah-Van to Centre and Jesse Royal coming back onto the bench. With talk of Campese having played himself out of an Origin jersey I can see him coming up with a huge game. The Raiders are a tough nut to crack at home and I've not seen anything from the Warriors of late to suggest they are going to turn around their atrocious record in Canberra this week. Pick – 2 units on Canberra to win
Titans -1.5 v Sea Eagles 3 at 1.92 -3
The Sea Eagles mini resurgence is about to be temporarily halted here at the hands of what I strongly expect to be a very determined Titans side out to halt their annual slide down the table. It's easy to question the Titans energy and enthusiasm away from home over the last few seasons but at home they've been twice the side they are away and when both Bailey and Prince start they are twice the side again, the problem is getting them both to start in the same match - which they are here! Manly have not convinced me they're anywhere near back to their 2008 best and I can see the Titans forward pack getting the upper hand and for Prince to relish his battle with Orford and produce a performance we know he's overdue for in front of the Skilled Park faithful. Pick – 3 units on Gold Coast -1.5 point start. (BEST BET)
Cowboys -2.0 v Knights 2.5 at 1.91 +2.27
One really has to admire the confidence the Knights are playing with this year and the obvious camaraderie amongst Brian Smith’s men who come into this match fresh off a very convincing win over the Roosters, whilst the Cowboys were equally as impressive in easily beating the Warriors in Auckland. It is short and sweet from me in this one, I like the home side to cover the narrow line....Thurston is playing as well as I've ever seen and the whole side are playing with an ominous confidence that I've been waiting to see from them all season, they've got the personnel but have lacked the attitude and I've seen enough to confidently back them to get the job done this week. Pick – 2.5 units on Cowboys -4.5 or better point start

 

NRL ROUND TEN
Dragons v Bulldogs NO PLAY
This is perhaps the toughest match of 2009 to date for the table topping Bulldogs who have really impressed with a high intensity and skill accuracy they've managed to maintain on a consistent basis and they go into this match with the added motivation of wanting to celebrate El Masri's 300th game for the club with a win. The Dragons welcome back some heavy artillery to their forward pack in Creagh and Scott with Priddis also being added to the bench whilst the Bulldogs are unchanged from the side that beat the Tigers two weeks ago. The Bulldogs have won 7 of the last 8 clashes between these sides with the one win to the Dragons (30-0) coming last season. It really is hard to separate these sides, they are both playing a similar style of football this season and have both been highly impressive. With the returning forwards the Dragons have I like them by a whisker but it is not worth the investment. Pick – no play
Broncos -6.5 v Titans 2 at 1.91 +1.82
This local Derby is always fiercely contested and given the nature of both of their narrow losses last week I don't expect this match to be any different. The Titans continue to struggle to lift their game playing away from home but do traditionally perform well against their Queensland rivals but with co-captain Bailey out of this and a question mark over the fitness of Prince, and with Laffranchi out through suspension, I believe they will really struggle. The Broncos surrendered a 16-0 lead against the Sea Eagles and whilst they looked good getting to that point there were worrying signs once the tide started to turn, with a drop in intensity as the Eagles soared into the match. These games are always tough to split with honours being shared two a piece in the last four encounters but without one or both of Bailey and Prince they will struggle to get the go-forward required against the solid Broncos defence and points could be at a premium for the visitors. The Broncos are rightfully favourites and given Bailey and Laffranchi are out and the question mark over the fitness of the Prince I am happy to recommend backing the Broncos to overcome the narrow negative point start. Pick – 2 units on Broncos -6.5 point start
Roosters v Knights NO PLAY
After yet another loss marked with ill-discipline and costly errors the Roosters now find themselves second to last on the table and, despite what Fittler had to say (he was 'pleased with their efforts'...please Freddy..) they need an attitude transplant and to start playing with much more intensity and desire. The Knights just held on against the Titans last week in another impressive effort, particularly from their forward pack who keep laying a winning foundation and with the Knights backline firing they're not struggling for points, as they have in previous years. The Roosters have hurt us this season with efforts falling well short of expectation, and whilst I love backing sides with known quality to come back fighting after copping one I am not at all inspired having expected fighting words from Fittler after the Storm match but getting quite the opposite. Brian Smith has the Knights playing a very consistent brand of football and on current form it's hard to see them losing this, I'm not about to totally right off the Roosters though and don’t feel there are any safe options here. Pick – no play
Sharks +7.0 v Panthers 2 at 1.92 +1.84
Both these sides go into this clash fresh off the Bye, which could not have come at a better time for the struggling Sharks who have had time to reflect on what's been a terrible start to the season and a chance to regroup, soul search, fine tune, dig deep - you name it, I expect them to have done it; the Panthers on the other hand would have been quite happy to have avoided last weeks Bye given the momentum they were carrying off the back of two wins in a row. The Sharks have won their last three matches at Penrith Stadium and whilst I don't usually look into the refereeing side of things (especially given the new two ref system) it is interesting to note the Panthers have played ten matches with Jarrod Maxwell officiating and have lost seven of them whilst the Sharks have played seven under him and won six of them. The Sharks are languishing at the bottom of the table but as I've insisted all season we've definitely not yet seen their best as they do have a side that will cause trouble for a number of more fancied sides this season; Stuart is a canny coach and will have used this Bye to their advantage and given they're currently up against the ropes (having copped a number of severe body blows) it's time to stop the madness and repay the blind faith I have shown in them most of the season. This traditional rivalry will be a close fought, low scoring encounter, I expect a real arm wrestle and whilst either side could get the win I at least expect the Sharks to get within the point start on offer. They not only owe their fans but also my readers who have forked out hard earned cash on them (at my recommendation…I do apologise) - this is time to start paying back the debt they owe - to society… Pick – 2 units on Cronulla +6.5 or better point start
Warriors v Cowboys NO PLAY
The Warriors have fallen short of expectation to date in 2009, especially at home where they've got a two win two loss record with the two wins coming against the lowly Roosters and Eels, they will be confident of making it three wins this week though against a Cowboys side that have been atrocious on the road in recent times, and with the last seven encounters between these sides all going in favour of the side playing at home they'll be confident of celebrating Jerome Ropati's 100th match for the Warriors in style. Last weeks win to the Cowboys over the Dragons was single-handedly instigated by their inform captain and Halfback Thurston who the Warriors obviously have to try and shut down or else they to will suffer from his rediscovered running game and general confidence on attack. The Warriors are currently as unpredictable as ever and it would really not surprise me if they lost this match...or won it by 40 points....you know where this is going - hold onto your cash! Pick – no play
Sea Eagles v Eels NO PLAY
Manly finally proved to themselves and critics that they can indeed beat a top side without injured Fullback Brett Stewart in running down the Broncos last week, whilst the Eels come into this off the Bye which followed their best performance of the season in beating the Cowboys. The Eels are bolstered with the return of Hindmarsh from suspension whilst the Sea Eagles have lost L'Estrange. Neither of these sides are a reliable option at the moment and whilst the Sea Eagles are rightfully firm favourites it takes more than one swallow to make a Summer and I really don't have any good reason to bet for or against the line the Bookies have on offer. Pick – no play
Rabbitohs to bt Wests Tigers 3 at 2.15 +3.45
The Bunnies have had their dangerous Halves partnership broken with the loss of Sutton (broken hand) for this clash but do welcome into the side Michael Crocker whose influence on the rest of the Souths season can not be underestimated - a truly fantastic signing. The Tigers are without impressive Chris Lawrence in the Centres but do welcome back Benji Marshall into the side that lost to the Bulldogs two weeks ago. I really liked the look of the Bunnies goal line defence against the Titans two weeks ago and they should kick on from there and I really don't feel like they lose a lot on attack with Wing replacing Sutton at Five-Eighth. The Tigers are a good side but their attack really does come down to Farah and Marshall, whilst the Bunnies have a side that poses danger right across the field and I like them to get one over their traditional rivals here. Pick – 3 units on Souths to win. (BEST BET)
Storm v Raiders NO PLAY
The Storm have had utter and total dominance over the Raiders in recent and not so recent history having won the last 13 matches played between the two sides and we're not just talking narrow losses, with the majority of those wins being by a very comfortable margin. I like how well Finch has slotted in at Five-eighth for the Storm and showed against the Roosters he's playing with a lot more confidence that we saw with him at the Eels. Short and sweet for Monday Night league this week, the lines about right and any result other than a Storm win would be a real shock. To keep things interesting you could always look at Inglis to score a try as he's been quiet of late and I can see him itching for a big performance, as far as we're concerned though it's a no play. Pick – no play

 

NRL ROUND NINE
Cowboys -4.5 v Dragons 2 at 1.91 -2
With no less than ten players backing up from Friday night rep footy the Dragons are going to have their metal well and truly tested here in the far North Queensland, up against the home side who apart from Thurston and O'Donnell will come into this match fresh, giving them a massive advantage. The Cowboys are a better outfit than their record suggests, the problem lies with their attitude, once they've got that sorted then it'll be full steam ahead and until then they'll continue to sporadically put in the odd good performance with this match being one of them against a side they've beaten in their last three outings. The key for the Cowboys is Thurston and I don't see him having too many problems backing up here and with their likely to be a number of players named in the Dragons side who won't end up taking the field I see the home side taking advantage. Pick – 2 units on Cowboys -4.5 point start
Knights v Titans NO PLAY
The Knights continue to turn heads this season with another quality performance last week in beating the Broncos, playing controlled football in atrocious conditions, whilst the Titans eventually got the win over Souths after struggling for much of the match to break the Bunnies goal line defence. The Titans are yet another side in this competition who are tough to track from week to week whilst the Knights have been more consistent but with players from both sides backing up from Friday night this will unsettle both sides and I see this result as being somewhat of a lottery. The odds are tempting on the Titans but I believe there are safer options this week for making money. Pick – no play
Sea Eagles +6.5 v Broncos 2 at 1.92 +1.84
In my opinion it is this match that will be the defining one for Manly's season, awful as they have been without star fullback Brett Stewart it's time we stopped mentioning his name and focus on who they do have - the bulk of their premiership winning side, with every single one of them with their backs to the wall and under immense pressure, it is this match, playing away from home against a top quality side, that they must perform, it's been building and building and last weeks loss to Melbourne could be the catalyst for a revival. Both these sides have players backing up from Friday night rep footy, with Manly's forward pack and the Broncos backline being most affected. The Sea Eagles have performed well against the Broncos in recent times winning their last three encounters, two of which were at Suncorp Stadium. The 2009 Broncos are a very good outfit but Manly are going to be up for this match and I believe are going to run them very close, and whilst I wouldn’t be surprised if they won I’m happy to back them with the point start. Pick – 2 units on Manly +6.5 point start
Roosters to bt Storm  3 at 2.52 -3
It's weeks like these Brad Fittler can look back with gratitude that some of his fringe players were overlooked for rep footy selection, not only does he get a number of quality players starting fresh against the Storm but he's also assured that they'll each be out to prove a point to selectors, which could well spell trouble for the Storm. With a number of Storm players backing up from Friday night this is the perfect chance for the Roosters, at home, to claim their biggest scalp of the season, and it's definitely not a chance that will be lost on Fittler who will have his side ready and waiting to ambush the Storm. The Roosters bounced back well last week against the Sharks and this weeks match will be another stepping stone towards getting back in the top eight and off the back of a dominant forwards effort Pearce and Anasta will have plenty to work with from the outset, securing the win in a dominant display. Pick – 3 units on Roosters to win (BEST BET)

 

NRL ROUND EIGHT
Sea Eagles v Storm NO PLAY
This is a tough match to get an angle on and even though it features both of last years Grand Finalists neither side is playing even close to the level that got them to that position in 2008. The Storm will be pleased with Brett Finches influence coming on against the Warriors, but are still lacking the attacking qualities we've become accustomed to, whilst the Sea Eagles put in another sub-par performance in losing to the Cowboys, further fuelling discussion around their inabilities without star fullback Brett Stewart which is something they will be desperately hoping to put to bed in the coming weeks, starting with this match against the Storm. Neither side have filled me with any great confidence to back here, I do get the feeling one of these sides is ready to explode with a scintillating display of their capabilities but not this week. Pick – no play
Eels v Cowboys NO PLAY
As a punter you've always got to be on the lookout for teams who are ready to bounce back, usually following a defeat (or series of defeats) as they look to restore pride and passion in the jersey, but looking at this Eels outfit on paper and seeing how badly they've played lately there's absolutely nothing to suggest they'll even get close to the Cowboys here. The Eels certainly had scoring opportunities against the Broncos last week but are lacking any real confidence, leading to errors and poor judgement and it was not long before the defence opened up and heads dropped which will spell trouble against a Cowboys side who look to have rediscovered some of their touch, with the Thurston and Bowen combination leading the attack against Manly. Unfortunately the Bookies have got the line about right here, the Cowboys are still questionable on the road and have lacked intensity at times, they will have to be at an all time low to go down to this struggling Eels side though. Pick – no play
Titans -6.5 v Rabbitohs 3 at 1.92 +2.76
The Titans welcome back Bailey and Rogers for this clash and are going to be a much tougher outfit this week than we saw Monday night against the Panthers and I expect them to put the thin Souths defensive line to the sword, running out comfortable victors. Having let in a number of soft tries against the worst attacking side in the competition last week, the Rabbitohs are going to really have their hands full against the class of the Titans, who we all know grow another leg playing on the Gold Coast. Bailey's return will be a big boost to the forwards who missed his leadership last week, whilst Rogers return adds another dimension to an already dangerous attack....this is going to be one way traffic - Russ Crowe’s Bunnies are going to get flattened here. Pick – 3 units on Gold Coast -6.5 point start (BEST BET)
Sharks v Roosters NO PLAY
Ummm..urhh..geeez....what can I say, the Sharks have really really burnt me this season, and apart from maybe Ricky Stuart there is no man on this planet more disappointed in them than me....I fully accept all criticism as a result of my backing them and only hope to make up for this in the remainder of the season with plenty of money-earning picks. Both these sides are struggling, the Sharks more than any in the competition, and both were completely uninspiring last week, the Sharks going down to Souths and the Roosters getting hammered by the Dragons. Of the two sides it's the Roosters who offer more on attack (with last weeks match an exception) and they’ve at least shown some spinal fortitude this year but to be honest my heart sinks just thinking about recommending my readers back either of these sides this week....this is a forum to make money through educated and well thought out picks…(with the occasional blunder…)...nobody could say this match is a wise investment either way. Pick – no play
Knights v Broncos NO PLAY
The Knights have won just once in their last eight encounters against the Broncos, who continued their impressive start to the season with another comfortable win over the Eels last week and will be looking to celebrate captain Darren Lockyer’s 300th match for the club in style here. The Knights have plenty of firepower returning for this match with Simpson, Uate and MacDougall all back from injury, again though this is not a match that inspires me to recommend you reach for the hammer and crack into the piggy bank, both sides are playing good footy and whilst the Broncos have looked the better of the two the fact this match is in Newcastle and the home side are at near full strength the playing field is fairly even and the result in the balance - at a push I'd say the Broncos by a whisker but this is not a good money-maker as it could go either way. Pick – no play
Raiders -3.5 v Panthers 2 at 1.91 -2
The Panthers were impressive in downing the Titans on Monday night, highlighted by a great performance from Sammut, whilst Walsh seemed to add another dimension on attack slotting in at Halfback, they will need to carry that same intensity into this match if they're any show against a hurting Raiders side who have the wood on the Panthers, having won 7 of the last 8 encounters, including a 74-12 thrashing here last season. The Raiders will have been working hard on their gaol-line defence this week after they let in some soft Bulldogs tries and I expect will be more than up for this clash, knowing these are the games they must win if they’re any chance of making the top eight this season, look for a lift in intensity from the home side and a strong defence to match an equally strong offence. Pick – 2 units on Raiders -3.5 point start
Dragons v Warriors NO PLAY
What a great effort from the Dragons last week totally eclipsing the hapless Roosters in every facet of the game led by a perfect defensive effort and with Soward the in form halfback in the competition they look every bit the joint competition favourites at this stage of the season. The Warriors welcome Fullback Wade McKinnon back into the side which drew with the Storm last week, moving the very impressive Hohia to the bench; the Warriors forwards have continued to work hard all season, non more so than Michael Luck who made an amazing 74 tackles against the Storm, and they will need to bring every bit of that energy to this match if they're to be any chance of beating the Dragons for the first time at WIN Stadium. The Bookies have it about right here, depending on what Warriors side shows up they are in with a real chance, but if the Dragons play to the same intensity as last week then even the Warriors A+ game won't be enough. Pick – no play
Bulldogs v Wests Tigers NO PLAY
The Bulldogs continue on their merry march this season, notching yet another win last week over the Raiders whilst the Tigers got out of jail due to some Benji magic late in their match against Newcastle. Kimmorley is guiding the Dogs attack brilliantly and his leadership in conjunction with Andrew Ryan is proving invaluable to the side with a consistency of play not seen at this club for a few seasons. The Dogs are favourites here and the line is about right, they will put in a bad performance sooner or later but I can't see it being this week. Pick – no play

 

NRL ROUND SEVEN
Broncos v Eels NO PLAY
The Eels freefall continued last week with their attitude and commitment being brought into question by coach Daniel Anderson following their mauling by the Bulldogs, and with the Broncos machine looking like it's about to crank it up a gear this week's trip to Suncorp Stadium is already looking like one to forget, unless the Eels pick their bottom lip off the ground and get some pride back into their performance. I expect this to be a comfortable win to the Broncos, but given the large spread from the Bookies I don’t think there’s any real value, expect a big game from Lockyer as he sets about answering some of his critics, beware the Eels! Pick – no play
Sharks to bt Rabbitohs 2 at 2.40 -2
The Sharks are now under an enormous amount of pressure as they sit bottom of the table with just the one win from six matches, and after their heavy loss to the Cowboys last week on top of an impotent attack Ricky Stuart now has cause for concern surrounding their defence. The Rabbitohs also go into this match backing up from a poor display against Manly, their worst of the season, which will ensure they're not complacent going into this match. Cronulla have the more experienced halves pairing in Barrett and Sinclair and whilst they’ve had limited effect thus far they’ll have to rate themselves a good show at getting one over their younger and more fancied opposites. With their captain Paul Gallen returning to the side the Sharks will be a much tougher outfit and I expect him to lead the forwards in a dominant display, I have backed them already this season and been bitten, but something is screaming at me to give them another chance, this is a good side and I believe they are going to wake from their slumber this week and finally give their fans something to cheer about. Pick – 2 units on Sharks to win
Roosters to bt Dragons 3.5 at 2.47 -3.5
The form going into this traditional Anzac Day clash is somewhat of a turnaround from last season, which saw the Roosters flying high and the Dragons really struggling, this year however see's the opposite with the Roosters off to a below par start to the season and the Dragons doing well. The Roosters are a better side than their 2-4 season start suggests, with one of the best halves pairing in the competition and a forward pack littered with talent (and a point to prove to origin selectors) and I expect this match to be a turning point, as it was for the Dragons last season. Soward continued to impress for the Dragons even in a losing effort last week against the Knights but I’m not totally convinced of his partnership with Hornby and their ability to consistently trouble a well organised defence, which is what I expect the Roosters to be here. Pick – 3.5 units on Roosters to win (BEST BET)
Storm -6.0 v Warriors 2.5 at 1.94 -2.5
The Storm will look to rally themselves with a double dose of motivation for this clash, firstly to pick themselves up after a slow start (by their standards) to the season after another misfiring offensive effort against the Tigers on Monday night, and to gain some revenge on the Warriors after their shock finals defeat last season, a match that will still be firmly imbedded in their memories. The Warriors were dreadful in the first half last week, with error after error and offered very little on defence, however once they got on the board in the second half and the crowd got behind them they stepped up, helped by the Roosters inability to put score points of their own, they are not going to have such luxuries this week though. The Storm will have been working overtime on their attack this week and I expect as the game wears on they'll start to find gaps in the Warriors defence and for their speedsters to make the visitors pay. This will be a reminder to all – do not write off the Storm!! Pick – 2.5 units on Storm -6.0 point start.
Cowboys -3.0 v Sea Eagles 2 at 1.98 +1.96
The obvious talking point around Manly this week is the news of Brett Stewarts injury and the subsequent stats that have emerged around Manly's very average win/loss ration when he's not in the side and one only has to look at the last two weeks to see the difference he does make to the Sea Eagles. The Cowboys on the other hand finally showed some life last week against Cronulla and will be hoping to improve on their abysmal recent record at Dairy Farmers Stadium off the back of that performance, with both Burns and Thurston enjoying their best games of the season, with great support in the forwards from the likes of O'Donnell and Tronc. The Sea Eagles will be out to prove they are capable of winning without their star Fullback but are going to struggle to match the Cowboys around the fringes as the home side will look to do a Manly and speed the match up. I like the home side to reward their loyal fans with a good win over the defending premiers here. Pick – 2 units on Cowboys -3.5 or better point start
Raiders v Bulldogs NO PLAY
The two matches between these sides last season went all one way with the Raiders who racked up 50 points against the Bulldogs on both occasions; however the 2009 version of the Bulldogs looks to be a much more disciplined and determined outfit than that of 2008 and there’s no way the Raiders will have it that easy here. The Bulldogs are without their speedster Josh Morris in the Centres but welcome back work horse David Stagg whilst the Raiders have named the youngster McCrone to cover the injured Herbert at Halfback, a change that will mean added responsibility on attack for Campese. The Raiders are very tough to beat at home and off the back of last weeks narrow loss will be looking to bounce back; whilst the Bulldogs continue to impress, it’s hard to split these two and best to sit this one out. Pick – no play
Wests Tigers v Knights NO PLAY
Both these sides go into this match off the back of impressive wins, with the Knights coming back to beat the Dragons whilst the Tigers put in their best defensive performance of the season in holding out the Storm. The Knights are continuing to get plenty of value from Isaac De Gois who has been tireless on attack and defence and whenever him and Gidley chime in together near the opposition line there are points on offer and they will really test this Tigers defensive line whilst the same can be said for Marshall and Farah who are running the Tigers offence well, particularly when they are both involved in the phase. This should be a great match with the two sides hard to split. Pick – no play
Panthers v Titans NO PLAY
There's no doubt the Panthers have looked a much more competitive side so far this year than in 2008, but they go into this match off the back of a 20 point loss to a Broncos side that certainly weren't at their best, which certainly does not have me racing to back them against the classy Titans. The Titans could be without their co-captain Bailey for this match but have no other injury concerns whilst the Panthers have stood down their Hooker Iosefa and have lost centre Brad Tighe to injury. The Panthers are a tough proposition at home and should be better than last weeks effort, the Titans showed in Melbourne/Townsville some weeks ago they can pull out the big game away from home; for our purposes though there's no value here, the lines about right, the Titans are strongest on paper but let's wait till they prove themselves a little more away from the Gold Coast before we start throwing cash behind them. Pick – no play

 

NRL ROUND SIX
Broncos -3.5 v Panthers 2.5 at 1.91 +2.27
After a narrow loss to Melbourne away from home the Panthers will approach this match with a degree of confidence whilst the Broncos will be looking for an improvement on their performance against the Roosters, knowing they can play much better. Even though the Panthers have performed well over recent weeks I just don’t believe they’ve got enough firepower, especially when you compare their halves pairing of Sammut and Graham with Wallace and Lockyer, and it only gets worse for the Panthers when we look further out wide with Hodges, Folau and Hunt all likely to cause serious concern for the home side. Comments made by Brisbane coach Henjak during the week has me satisfied the Broncos will be on top of their game for this match and I expect them to have a comfortable win. Pick – 2.5 units on Brisbane -4.5 or better point start
Titans -8.5 v Raiders 3.5 at 2.00 -3.5
Both these sides are backing up after courageous away wins last week, Canberra over the Sharks and Gold Coast over the Cowboys. Taking a look at recent matches between these two sides it makes for very interesting reading, with the home side completely dominating the last four encounters with an average winning margin of 32 points and I see this match heading in a similar fashion with the full strength Titans outfit being too good for the Raiders, and after expecting a larger margin to been set by the Bookies I am happy to recommend backing the home side with the negative point start. Pick – 3.5 units on Titans -8.5 point start. (BEST BET)
Dragons v Knights NO PLAY
Both these sides have performed admirably thus far in 2009 and both enter this match on a high following wins but of the two sides it’s the Dragons that have impressed the most, leading the competition in defence and showing an all round maturity under Wayne Bennett that now has them as joint favourites to win the competition. The Bookies have the line about right here - with the Dragons at home and playing excellent footy they’re rightfully favourites and barring complacency should be too strong for the Knights, this is not a good betting match however. Pick – no play
Rabbitohs v Sea Eagles NO PLAY
As expected last week the Sea Eagles bounced back to winning ways led by a brilliant return from Brett Stewart the win was not quite as convincing as I’d expected though and they’ve still got a way to go to get back to their best, whilst it’s hard to get a gauge on the Rabbitohs loss to the Bulldogs after the match was played in horrible conditions which led to an error ridden match. I expect both these sides offence to function better this week resulting in a high scoring match; I am a little surprised at the short price on Manly, playing away from home after just their first win of the season against a Souths side who have looked sharp in 2009, but the Sea Eagles are a quality side and I expect will bury a side in the near future, whether it’s this week who knows. Pick – no play
Warriors v Roosters NO PLAY
With the much needed return of their captain Steve Price and human wrecking ball Manu Vatuvai plus their good recent record over the Roosters the Warriors have understandably been installed as favourites for this match but with the highs and lows we’ve already seen from the Roosters season it does not make good sense to bet against them making this tougher than expected for the Warriors. Both these sides are brimming with talent and both find themselves in a position on the table they are not pleased with. The Warriors have shown a lack of patience and execution over the last three weeks and with their rudder, Steve Price, now back should play more like the side we saw in the first two weeks, just whether it’s enough against this unpredictable and talented Roosters side we’ll watch and see. Pick – no play
Sharks v Cowboys NO PLAY
What a disappointment both these sides have been in 2009. The Cowboys have such a talented side but are playing without passion and desire, whilst the Sharks are suffering a similar fate - they’re easily the worst attacking side in the competition and don’t share the same talent as the Cowboys though so they make losing look even worse. I was left dumbfounded and almost speechless after Ricky Stuart commended his lads following yet another loss last week - at home to a Canberra side that’ll be lucky to make the top eight in 2009 - Ricky was proud of them...they blimmin well lost by 10 points!!!....anyway, either side could win this, it’s being played in Adelaide so no great ‘home’ advantage to the Sharks, best to put your wallet away as both these sides need to prove they’ve got a spine before I’ll recommend any of my readers back either of them again in the near future. Pick – no play
Eels v Bulldogs NO PLAY
With the Brett Finch drama now behind them the Eels would have had a week of clear preparation for this match with a chance to fine tune their new halves combination of Mateo and Robson; the Bulldogs on the other hand will be hoping to carry on their momentum after another gutsy victory over Souths. I’ve been impressed with the Dogs outfit of 2009, they look hungry and well drilled, with a highly committed defence and with Kimmorley leading the attack look to have sorted out their offensive woes from 2008. The Eels have won the last four matches played against the Dogs but I just don’t know if they’ve got enough points in them currently and will struggle against this tight Bulldogs defence, it could be a little early to write them off though. The Dogs are favourites for this and the line is about right Pick – no play
Wests Tigers v Storm NO PLAY
The Tigers have an attack that has worried and will worry a number of defences in 2009 but unfortunately for them they’ve got a defence that will be worrying their coach at the moment, and no doubt Tim Sheens will be working overtime looking for a quick fix against the Storm this week. The Storm came away with the win last week in a much closer match than was expected at home against the Panthers and will be looking for improvement, with their coach Craig Bellamy admitting they’ve got to adjust better to the pace of the match the two referee’s have brought to it. Again the Bookies have the line about right here, the Storm are the more complete outfit but the Tigers are unpredictable and will need to be at their best to get the win, or even make it close. Pick – no play

 

NRL ROUND FIVE
Roosters to bt Broncos 2 at 2.66 -2
The Broncos have owned the Roosters in Sydney over recent years, winning their last six in a row there, they go into this match after a disappointing loss to the Dragons though, their first of the season. The Roosters defied the odds and hammered a woeful Eels side last week, doing so without a number of key players, two of whom – Mason and Myles - they welcome back for this match and I expect the suspension to have done their motivation a world of good. Despite their poor recent record against the Broncos I am tipping the Roosters to get up for this match, after a relatively tumultuous week last week they came out with a performance over the Eels that was full of character, and with the forwards leading the way I expect Anasta and Pierce to pepper the Bronco defence. A number of these Roosters have a point to prove to themselves and their fans, this is the perfect match to really state their 2009 credentials. Pick – 2 units on Roosters to win
Eels v Dragons NO PLAY
The Eels were awful last week against the Roosters right across the park and it seems Daniel Anderson has had enough of the misfiring offence and has made the decision to nudge Finch out the door, which I don't believe is a bad idea as during his time at the Eels he's not produced, on a consistent basis, the type of game they would have expected from him for the money they've forked out. I know I've had enough of the Eels big name side consistently underperforming, and I don't even support them, so good on Daniel Anderson, hopefully he puts some of the other big note players on notice also. Anyway, back to this match, the Dragons looked brilliant against the Broncos, I just can't see them producing as clinical of an effort again this week; this is a good one to stay away from as just how the Eels will back up after their shocker last week and the axing of Finch is hard to say. Pick – no play
Sharks -1.5 v Raiders 2 at 2.02 -2
Pathetic – this sums up the Sharks performance last week, and after I recommended you all get on them against the Bulldogs I was left feeling a complete Goose (not literally..) and just when I thought my blood pressure couldn’t get any higher the Sharks (who were more like Yellow-Bellied Flounders) made another stupid error…anyway, apologies for anyone who took my recommendation on them. The Sharks have lost their captain Paul Gallen (suspended) for this match but do welcome back Barrett to help their misfiring offence and his pairing with Seymour could be what the doctor ordered. The Sharks have won their last four against the Raiders, winning each of the last two matches at Shark Park by 26 points and my instincts tell me this is going to be a decent victory to the Sharks, despite suspensions and recent poor form. The Raiders don’t travel well and when their attitude and intensity is not 100% they run the risk of being completely shut out of matches. Pick – 2 units on Sharks -1.5 point start
Storm -11.5 v Panthers 2.5 at 1.91 -2.5
The Panthers head to Melbourne for what is certainly the toughest challenge of their 2009 season to date, but do so off the back of two straight wins, whilst the Storm were rocked last week by the Titans, which means bad news for the Panthers. Without wanting to take too much credit away from the Panthers their win against Manly was more a case of the least worst side on the day won (you know what I mean, they both played terrible footy) and last weeks score line did not reflect the overall closeness of the match, with this in mind I'm basically saying they're not in the same league as the Storm and I expect will get comprehensively outplayed in this match. I can't think of the last time the Storm lost back to back matches in Melbourne, with a loss there generally spelling trouble for the next week’s opposition. The Storm are going to be way to strong in nearly every facet of this match, the Panthers will struggle to breach what will be a very urgent defence and with the speed and talent the home side have throughout their ranks I see them coming away with a comprehensive victory here. Pick – 2.5 units on Storm -11.5 point start
Cowboys v Titans NO PLAY
North Queensland were horrid in the first half last week, none more so than Thurston who was directly involved in conceding at least two of the Canberra tries, but back on home turf and up against one of his main rivals for the Queensland Origin jersey I expect him to perform much better this week. The Titans were excellent in downing the Storm in Melbourne and with Prince back for them this week they will be filled with confidence going into this Queensland derby. If you'd asked me two weeks ago who was going to win this I'd have said the Cowboys without hesitation, but apart from their win over the Tigers they've generally underperformed, with worrying echoes of last season. We should see Thurston taking on the line a bit more this week but this shouldn't surprise the Titans who'll be ready for what the Cowboys have to offer. The Cowboys will be a lot better than last week but with a full strength side at their disposal the Titans will be more than up for this and it really could go either way. Pick – no play
Knights v Warriors NO PLAY
Still without their captain Steve Price and coming off their second successive loss this match could spell more tough times for the Warriors against a Knights side that look like they’re hitting their stride after a comprehensive display against Manly. The Warriors have won their last three against the Knights and on paper certainly have a side capable of making it a fourth but they've not inspired me the last two weeks and with the Knights winning their first match in 2009 at Energy Australia Stadium so comprehensively it would be foolish of me to recommend going against the home side, that's not to say they'll definitely win, it's just saying this match is not a good money maker as both these sides have somewhat of a Jekyll and Hyde nature. Pick – no play
Sea Eagles -8.0 v Wests Tigers 3.5 at 1.93 +3.25
Come the final whistle this Sunday loyal Manly fans will be on the Brookvale Oval embankment soaking up the reflective glory following their sides thumping of the Tigers, following a performance befitting their talent and experience, with the return of Stewart and Lyon galvanising the team - this is how I see this match going. I've seen this time and time again with good sides that get off to bad starts, they hit a point where enough is enough and explode in a match, I believe that time is now and it's the Tigers who are about to bear the brunt, and as we've seen already this season, once the Tigers get behind their heads can drop and the defensive line opens up like the Red Sea. I expect Manly to dominate nearly every facet of this match from the opening whistle. Pick – 3.5 units on Manly -8.0 point start (BEST BET)
Rabbitohs to bt Bulldogs  2 at 2.00 -2
Despite being behind in the possession and field position stats last week the Rabbitohs showed plenty of guts in beating the Warriors in Auckland, with Talanoa having a blinder; whilst the Dogs win over the Sharks sees them sitting pretty at fifth, despite being stripped two competition points. It's hard to split these sides, they're both performing above expectations in 2009 and both have hard working forward packs who basically cancel each other out in this, it's in the backs though that I see a slight edge to the Rabbitohs, with Sandow and Sutton orchestrating opportunities for the likes of Best, Merritt and Talanoa to finish off. Even though this is being played at the Bulldogs ‘home ground’, ANZ Stadium will be filled with Souths fans buoying on their side to remain at the top of the table, and I think they’ll get what they want, but it won’t be by much. Pick – 2 units on Rabbitohs to win

 

NRL ROUND FOUR
Dragons +6.5 v Broncos 2.5 at 1.85 +2.12
Dragons to bt Broncos 1 at 2.75 +1.75
The return of Hodges for this match pushes Folau out to the wing and gives the Broncos yet another weapon to their armoury, which won’t have done St Georges chances of winning this match any good, especially considering they’re without the injured Matt Cooper. The Dragons defensive effort in beating the Sharks last week was excellent and will need to step up another gear for this match and while the loss of Cooper is a blow I can only see positives for the Dragons attack out of Wayne Bennett moving Hornby to Fullback and starting Head at Halfback. The Dragons have a phenomenal recent record over the Broncos, winning their last seven encounters, four of which were played in Brisbane, and with master coach Wayne Bennett knowing most of the strengths and weaknesses of these Broncos players I expect his input will prove to be the difference between the sides. Bennett recently masterminded the Kiwis victory over the Kangaroos on this very ground and will again be out to get one over a team he’s coached in the past. Pick – 2.5 units on Dragons +6.5 point start and 1 unit on Dragons to win
Roosters v Eels NO PLAY
The Roosters chances of bouncing back after their disappointing display against the Tigers last week have been dented with the suspension of key forwards Myles and Mason, and with Minichiello also out the side has lost a large chunk of their experience, not too mention game breakers. The Eels snuck through last week against a determined Raiders side and while coach Daniel Anderson will be happy with the win he’ll be a little concerned with the lack of points coming from his side, with the halves pairing of Finch and Hayne not offering the answers he may have hoped for. This is tough to call as just how the Roosters cope in the face of adversity will be the telling factor, they showed against Canberra they have the ability to bounce back strongly after a big loss but without Minichiello, Myles and Mason could find they’re lacking in personnel to break this hardened Eels outfit. Pick – no play
Panthers v Wests Tigers NO PLAY
Both these sides had good wins last week, Wests convincingly over the Roosters and the Panthers scrapped by over Manly, of the two sides however it was the Tigers that impressed the most with an attack that looks like it will cause plenty of worry for opposition defensive lines, led well by Marshall at halfback. I imagine the Panthers attack, which looked awful at times against Manly, will function better with the new Halves pairing of Sammut and Graham, as Lewis did not look comfortable as a chief playmaker and will be more dangerous at Lock without the added pressure. The Tigers still have the far superior offense but given they've run hot and cold this past fortnight I just don't feel altogether comfortable recommending my loyal readers risk their hard earned cash on backing them away from home against a Penrith side who've just beaten the defending premiers. Pick - no play
Titans +14.0 v Storm 2.5 at 1.92 +2.3
In the absence of Prince last week the Titans got by but not altogether convincingly against the Bulldogs, this week however is the true test of the clubs character playing the mighty Storm at Olympic Park. The Storm brushed aside the Cowboys last week and in doing so showed they've lost nothing of their premiership credentials from previous seasons, I do however feel the Titans will step up to the mark here and whereas in previous seasons I'd be expecting a convincing Storm win, the core of this Titans side have been together for a few seasons now and know that if they're to state their own premiership credentials it's matches like this one, without their star halfback, that they need to at the very least compete for 80 minutes in. The Bookies have rightfully installed the home side as hot favourites but it's with the point start I'm interested in and feel the Titans have the talent and the metal to make this close. Pick – 2.5 units on Titans +13.5 or better point start
Rabbitohs to bt Warriors 2 at 3.00 +4
What a difference a couple of weeks has made for the Warriors, after flying high the first two rounds they’ve been somewhat grounded by last weeks loss to the Broncos and the season ending injury to star Centre Brett Tate, and with Steve Price also gone from this match the Warriors will be up against it. The Rabbitohs finally clicked into gear last week after a slow start against Newcastle and have an attack that, while still ironing out a few issues, will have the Warriors on their toes, especially with Wesser and Merritt back for this match. The loss of Price is a huge blow for the home side and will be telling, he is the Rudder that guides this team and without his on-field leadership we could see the ill discipline of the Warriors of old creep in, especially if they go behind early. Man for man I like the Bunnies in this one, they won in Auckland last year with a side that wasn’t as strong as this one and I believe will repeat the effort here. Pick – 2 units on Rabbitohs to win.
Sharks +4.5 v Bulldogs 3.5 at 1.87 -3.5
Sharks to bt Bulldogs 1.5 at 2.75 -1.5
One thing you’ve got to admire about Ricky Stuart, more so than any other coach in the NRL, he does not take losing lightly, he absolutely detests it, and with the Sharks now sitting at one win and two losses for 2009, he will be working around the clock to turn around their fortunes, with the main focal point being their lack of attacking prowess, with defence not being an issue. The Bulldogs were there own worst enemies last week against the Titans, but have shown themselves to be a much improved outfit to that of 2008, with Kimmorley running the attack well. This is short and sweet, I expect the Sharks to throw everything including the kitchen sink into this match and come away with the win, they have a defence that will really frustrate the Bulldogs and Seymour (who’ll be looking for redemption with a huge game) back at Halfback should provide another string to their bow on attack, paving the way for a Sharks win or at the very least a close match, making the point start very inviting indeed. Pick – 3.5 units on Sharks +4.5 point start (BEST BET) and 1.5 units on Sharks to win
Knights v Sea Eagles NO PLAY
The news just doesn’t get any better for the defending premiers with Jamie Lyon ruled out for a few weeks and still not a win on the board for 2009, they have only themselves to blame though after an error ridden game against Penrith last week. Newcastle showed plenty early on against Souths but their defence faltered and once that happened the attack followed, looking pedestrian towards the end. Short and sweet for this, Manly are going to bury a team in the near future but without Stewart still and now Lyon it’s not good logic to recommend a wager on them away from home, against a side that beat them in the corresponding match last season, but then again it’s equally as bad logic to bet against them. Pick – no play
Cowboys -2.0 v Raiders 2 at 1.91 -2
The Raiders showed an improved defensive effort last week but still narrowly went down to the Eels in a low scoring encounter, whilst the Cowboys were upset in Townsville by the Storm. Short and sweet – the Bookies have gone for a narrow margin which I believe is much too tight - the Raiders will obviously be desperate for the win but they’ll have to wait another week as Neil Henry will have his Cowboys side fired up after last week and desperate to get one over his old side, there is a gulf of experience and talent between these sides in key positions and if the Cowboys come away with anything other than a win that covers the narrow margin I will be very surprised. Pick – 2 units on Cowboys -2.5 or better point start.

 

NRL ROUND THREE
Roosters to bt Wests Tigers 2 at 1.67 -2
Tough match first up to get a feel for, both sides have been embarrassed once so far in 2009, and both have a win over the Raiders. With a relative mix of inexperience these sides are fairly even out wide, from no. 6 to no. 13 however I feel the Roosters are stronger (with the exception of Farah at Hooker) and the confidence shot after last weeks convincing win could have them getting off to a similarly strong start to last year. The pairing of Marshall and Morris are still a work in progress for the Tigers and will get better as the season progresses but need more time. The Roosters are without Minichiello at the back which is a blow, but have good cover in Perrett, who I expect will be targeted by the Tigers. I believe the Roosters will ride the wave of confidence from last week and win this match. Pick – 2 units on Sydney Roosters to win
Titans -3.5 vs Bulldogs 4 at 1.97 +3.88
Titans 13+ vs Bulldogs 1 at 3.30 -1
In the first half of the 2008 season the Titans made Skilled Park into a graveyard for visiting sides, growing another leg in front of the home fans and as long as co-captains Prince and Bailey stay fit, along with other core members of the side then I see many great returns both home and away for this side. The Bulldogs have impressed with two wins from two but after being stripped of last weeks points (they need to bring back the Abacas) will have had the wind taken out of their sails somewhat, which isn’t a good thing when approaching your toughest match to date. The Titans will be too strong in key areas here and I expect a dominant display off the back of their halves pairing of Prince and Rogers. I expect this will be a big win to a rampant Titans side that have plenty of points in them. Pick – 4 units on Titans -4.5 points start (BEST BET) and 1 unit on Titans 13+
Warriors v Broncos NO PLAY
In previous years this would be a danger game for the Warriors, riding on a wave of confidence following their second win of the season, having beaten Manly last week off the back of some Stacey Jones magic. The Broncos have also gone two from two thus far in `09, with two very narrow victories, but will regard this as their toughest test thus far. The Warriors do have a host of injuries, one of which is wrecking ball Manu Vatuvai, but are rightfully favourites on home soil; the Bookies have the line about right though and this is a good match to sit back and see which side will further strengthen their credentials for glory in 2009. Pick – no play
Raiders +8.5 vs Eels 2 at 1.92 +1.84
It appears that 2009 could be the year when the Eels become contenders and lost the pretenders tag they’ve carried over recent seasons, with Daniel Anderson introducing an attitude amongst the side that’s been lacking, which was typified in their solid and uncompromising defence in last weeks victory over Souths. The Raiders season has started with a whimper – unforced errors, penalties and a leaky defence all characterising their first two encounters, but this is not the time to be writing them off as they showed in 2008 they lack nothing in character and it is in this match I believe that will come out, making for a close contest. I expect works been done on the defensive issues this week and with the Eels attack still finding its feet this could be a relatively low scoring encounter, making the point start to the Raiders seem rather attractive. Pick – 2 units on Canberra Raiders +8.5 point start
Cowboys v Storm NO PLAY
In hammering the Tigers last week the Cowboys reminded us what a gifted attacking side they are when not hampered by injuries and under new coach Neil Henry look like the real deal in 2009. The Storm have enjoyed a run of four straight wins over the Cowboys and will have to be at their very best to continue the streak. With Thurston and Bowen on the field the Storm defence will be anticipating their two man plays which could create opportunities in other areas, whilst Inglis and Cronk will provide the main target for the Cowboy defence. This promises to be a very entertaining match; at home I’m leaning slightly towards the Cowboys but hold onto your wallets as this one could go either way. Pick – no play
Rabbitohs v Knights NO PLAY
After all the hype and over-kill surrounding Souths first match of the season they were under immense pressure last week and struggled, going down to a committed Eels defensive effort, whilst Newcastle showed great commitment and urgency in downing the Sharks. Newcastle have enjoyed playing Souths over recent times winning eight of their last ten encounters, however this Bunnies side is their strongest in some years and once their halves pairing of Sutton and Sandow start playing with consistency then they’ve got a side to cause some real damage, as we saw in round one. Newcastle are without the injured Mullen but Scott Dureau showed last week for sixty minutes that he’s a more than capable replacement, there will however be more pressure on him starting in this match. Souths are the favourites and I expect them to win this but by what margin who knows, best to sit this one out. Pick – no play
Dragons v Sharks NO PLAY
This Dragons outfit have shown over the last two weeks they are the real deal in `09, whilst the Sharks really are struggling, with vital stats making for bad reading, something Ricky Stuart will hope his side address in this match. Short and sweet, this will be a hard slog and whilst the Dragons have more to offer on attack the Sharks could turn this into a low scoring arm wrestle, which is what they like, the Bookies have the line right in this and there’s no value. Pick – no play
Sea Eagles v Penrith NO PLAY
Panthers Manly did not play badly last week in losing to an impressive Warriors outfit and while many are suggesting things are really not good at the club following the early season off-field incidents, they improved considerably last week and I expect them to move up another gear this week against the Panthers. I was hoping the line for this would be a little tighter but the Bookies obviously share my sentiment that this Manly side are ready to click, whether it’s a week or two premature let’s just wait and see, not a good value match here – Manly to win but the margins for this one are about right. Pick – no play

 

NRL ROUND TWO
Storm to bt Broncos 2 at 2.50 -2
This promises to be a repeat of last years epic semi-final encounter, narrowly won by Melbourne, with both these sides starting 2009 in style and coincidently both coming away with one point wins last week, with the defence (and fitness) of both sides really standing out. There are some fantastic match-ups right across the field here and I feel the key to all these is in the halves pairing, where I believe Melbourne will have the edge. There won’t be a lot of points in this match but I’m happy to recommend backing the visitors at a decent enough price. Pick – Storm to win
Eels +4.0 vs Rabbitohs 2 at 1.92 +1.84
This match will further serve to show us how far Souths have come from last season and whether this halves pairing of Sutton and Sandow are able to reach the same heights on attack as they did in masterminding last weeks demolition of the Roosters. I was impressed with the effort by Souths but the theatrics around the win are a little too much (Rus and the big thumb…please), and I can’t believe how much the press have jumped the gun on Sutton as an Origin starter, we’ve had one game in the season for goodness sakes. Anyway, I personally believe the Eels will bounce back from their performance against the Warriors, Daniel Anderson is a very good coach and the team is full of talent, he’ll be demanding more from the senior Eels players and I expect they will respond. Pick – Eels +4.0 point start
Dragons v Titans NO PLAY
The Dragons looked sharp in narrowly losing to the Storm last week, accurate in their execution in the face of strong defence and equally accurate in defence themselves, getting numbers to the ball carrier, cutting out potentially dangerous off-loads, something they’ll have to repeat against this dangerous Titans offence, a team they’ve beaten in their last four encounters. The Titans currently have all their attacking weapons injury free which does not happen often, and have only been strengthened since 2008, they traditionally do not travel well though so I’d prefer to wait and see what the 2009 version holds. Hold onto your wallets! Pick – no play
Panthers to bt Bulldogs 3 at 2.75 -3
Having been written off before kick-off against Manly the Bulldogs put in one of their best efforts in a long time to thoroughly outplay the embattled Sea Eagles; the Panthers on the other hand will be hoping for a lot better execution than last week in never really threatening against the Sharks, the halves pairing of Lewis and Sammut are going to hurt teams this season but they may need a little longer to hit their straps. I’m not a fan of getting carried away after the first round with teams performances, the NRL is a marathon, not a sprint, and I’m not convinced last weeks efforts will mirror this matches outcome. The Dogs lost 52-16 in Penrith back in round 23 last season and whilst I’m certainly not suggesting a similar score line I am confident the Panthers will play at a much higher level to that of last week, whilst I’m not convinced the Dogs will repeat their level of intensity. Pick – 3 units on Panthers to win (BEST BET)
Cowboys -7.5 v Tigers 2.5 at 1.89 +2.23
The Cowboys could have easily taken the points last week against the Broncos if not for a few lapses of concentration late in the match, whilst the Tigers impressive second half performance sealed a good win over the Raiders. The Cowboys have an excellent side on paper and I believe could make a mess of the Tigers in Townsville, they’re a side with so many attacking weapons, backed up by an uncompromising forward pack that will punch away at the Tigers all night. The Tigers embarrassed the Cowboys in Round 2 last year at this same venue and I expect a complete reversal in this match, they are a much better coached side in 2009 and have a fit playing roster. Farah and Marshall are again the key players for the Tigers but I expect will be shut down by a tough and uncompromising Cowboys defence. Pick – 2.5 units on Cowboys -9.5 or better point start
Raiders v Roosters NO PLAY
The Roosters were dreadful in getting humiliated by the Rabbitohs last week and will obviously enter this match with much more focus and determination with a definite point to prove for themselves and their fans, if they’re to do that though they need Anasta and Pearce to repeat their 2008 form. The Raiders had an excellent first half only to go try less in the second half, which is a worry for a side many believe will be wooden spoon contenders in 2009. The Roosters have the better side on paper and enough motivation behind them to get the win here but after the low level to which they stooped last week I’m going to recommend my devoted readers just sit this one out. Pick – no play
Sea Eagles v Warriors NO PLAY
The Sea Eagles were obviously rocked last week with the off-field sagas but I expect will be much more focused this week against a team they’ve enjoyed good success over in recent times, winning five of the last six encounters. The Warriors will be pleased with their effort against the Eels but will need to have an 80 minute focus for if they let the intensity drop, as they did briefly last week, they will get severely punished. Stacey Jones returns at Halfback for the Warriors, whilst out go Hohaia and Matulina through injury; whilst the Sea Eagles have shown faith in last weeks bunch. I expect a win to Manly here but again want to give both these sides another week to prove themselves. Pick – no play
Sharks v Knights NO PLAY
The Sharks ground out a win over the Panthers last week and look like they’re not going to change from their 2008 style of play – with percentage attack and suffocating defence, they were dealt a blow this week with the loss of Ben Ross for the season and Seymour for one match (at least that was so at time of writing). The Knights did not show enough for me to back them to get the win here, but the Sharks performance wasn’t exactly inspiring either, the Bookies have the lines right and I recommend holding onto your cash. Pick – no play

 

NRL ROUND ONE
Cowboys to bt Broncos 2 at 2.25 -2
The Broncos are going to be up against it in this match and I’m surprised at their early favouritism given the very impressive side North Queensland have named and the decent record they have at Suncorp Stadium. While Brisbane do have a number of players to warrant opposition respect they are fielding a number of inexperienced players, particularly through the backline, and I expect this to be a significant factor as the pairing of Thurston and Bowen flex their muscles. Short and sweet, I expect the traditional physical local Derby up front but for the Cowboys backs to be the difference with too much pace and strength. Pick – 2 units on Cowboys to win
Storm v Dragons NO PLAY
Great match to have so early in the opening round with so many unknowns, how much have the Dragons really changed under Bennett? How will the Storm go with the loss of key personnel – Crocker, Folau, J Smith, Kaufusi and Geyer? There is no doubt the Storm still have a menacing side on paper but are very short on experience in the Centre’s and where Bennett will definitely be looking to focus a lot of the offensive play through Chase Stanley and Matt Cooper, with Soward and Hornby more than capable of orchestrating a very testing night for the inexperienced Storm centre pairing. Taking on the Storm at Olympic Park is one of the toughest tasks in the NRL but as the Warriors proved last year, it is possible to get the win, but after the Dragons Charity Shield performance I’d prefer to wait another week before recommending a wager on a match they’re involved in, best to sit this one out and enjoy. Pick – no play.
Warriors v Eels NO PLAY
The Warriors have had an impressive pre-season to match the impressive signings made for 2009 in what I expect will be a very good one for them, with plenty of competition for the Halfback/Five-Eighth positions, which is where they’ve been caught a little short in recent years. The Eels on the other hand have been very quiet on the recruitment front for 2009 but have lost some good experience from 2008; the most significant signing however has definitely been that of their coach Daniel Anderson who replaces Michael Hagen, which can only be a very positive move for the club after recent under-achievement. The Bookies have the line about right for this match, the Warriors will come out strongly, supported by a large home crowd, but I’d like to see just how far Daniel Anderson has taken this Eels side and whether they might finally cast aside the underachiever tag in 2009. Pick – no play
Sharks -6.5 v Panthers 3 at 1.91 +2.73
The Sharks have recruited well for 2009 adding Barrett, Tupou, Hughes and Maitua who are all set to play in this match, whilst the Panthers I feel have gone backwards and it could be a very long season for them, starting with this match. The Sharks started 2008 very strongly and I expect this season to be no different, they’ve a very good side on paper and have a very good coach in Ricky Stuart, who will be more determined than ever to win another premiership after losing the Australian coaching job. I can’t help but feel the Bookies have got the margins too narrow in this match and am happy to recommend getting on the home side with the negative point start. 3 units on Sharks -6.5 point start (BEST BET)
Bulldogs v Sea Eagles NO PLAY
What a week to forget for the Manly club with star Fullback Brett Stewart now being rightly or wrongly suspended, either way it’ll serve as a catalyst of disruption for the side or one for unity. Manly proved in the Club Challenge win that they’re going to be a huge force again in 2009, but have been weakened with the loss of Williamson, Menzies and Bell; the Bulldogs on the other hand have a stronger side than that of ’08 doing particularly well in recruiting for the crucial positions of Halfback (Kimmorley) and Hooker (Ennis). This should be a very good match but one I recommend keeping your wallet closed for. Pick – no play
Titans -6.5 v Knights 2.5 at 1.91 +2.28
The Knights are another side who’ve lost more than they’ve gained from 2008 in terms of personnel, with Danny Buderas being the biggest of those losses, a player the Knights heavily relied upon for leadership and general play. The Titans have remained relatively stagnant with the bulk of the 2008 side still in place, they have added the exciting Zillman at Fullback though; again a lot will depend on whether the dual captains – Prince and Bailey, can both stay fit and on the field because when they both start, as with this match, then the Titans are a very tough side to beat particularly at Skilled Park. The Titans have too many game-breakers against a Knights side that does not look particularly menacing on paper and I expect they will be overrun with a comfortable victory to the home side. Pick – 2.5 units on Titans -6.5 point start
Roosters v Rabbitohs NO PLAY
The Rabbitohs have to start 2009 well in order to have any chance of making the play-offs, too often we’ve seen them languishing after early rounds, left to play catch-up all season but if their Charity Shield performance was anything to go by this could be a much more dangerous Souths side with a settled Halves pairing of Sutton and Sandow, two excellent new backline recruits in Best and Wesser and a solid forward pack. The Roosters have lost Shillington, Tupou and Roberts for 2009 and not been big on recruitment, the major focal point of their season will again come down to their halves pairing of Anasta and Pearce and whether they can repeat a lot of the magic they worked in 2008. In short, I don’t see any great value in this match, both these sides have a lot of potential for 2009 and I’d prefer to sit this one out and see what each is going to offer. Pick – no play
Tigers v Raiders NO PLAY
The Raiders have lost some significant names from 2008 in Zillman, Carney, Withers and Best but they proved last year they are a very resilient side and truly embody the notion of writing off at your own expense, which is what I was considering doing this week but have decided against it. The Tigers have lost Hodgson and Head from 2008 and I’d prefer to see how this 2009 version shapes up before recommending my devoted readers throw away their hard earned cash on them, especially against the Green Machine! Pick – no play

PAST RECORD
ROUND RESULT STAKES ROI
2008 (New Analyst) +39.75 units 240.5 17%
2007 +22.96 units 138 17%
2006 -2.64 units 181 -1%

 

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