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NRL PREVIEWS & PLAYS
...with OTP's National Rugby League expert |
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ARCHIVE |
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NRL ROUND TWENTY-FOUR |
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Roosters to bt Sharks |
2.5 at 2.01 |
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 -2.5 |
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Both these sides had a case of the top
four wobbles last week with Cronulla going down to the Warriors in
Auckland and the Roosters copping a hiding from the Storm. The Roosters
welcome back Nate Myles and Craig Fitzgibbon for this clash into what is
virtually a full strength side, whilst the Sharks too have named what is
their strongest side, with both teams appreciating the significance this
clash will have on their top four aspirations. The Roosters run out onto
Shark Park knowing they’ve had the wood on Cronulla of late, winning the
last five clashes between the sides, two of which were at Shark Park.
With Cronulla’s famous end of season wobbles looking like it may be
about to set in, and with the side the Roosters are fielding, and record
they have over Cronulla, I am happy to back them for making it six in a
row over their Sydney rivals. Pick – 2.5 units on Sydney Roosters to win |
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Titans +11.5 vs Broncos |
2 at 1.93 |
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 +1.86 |
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With Scott Prince’s return last week
against the Cowboy’s inspiring the Titans to the upset win they’ve kept
their slim chances of making the finals alive, but a loss this week
against a near full strength Broncos would all but extinguish those
hopes. The Broncos’ loss last week to St George has not done their
chances of a top four finish to the season any favours, but with others
sides within the top four also dropping matches last week they’re still
in with a good show, and with all their big guns lining up for this
match have rightfully been placed as hot favourites to beat their
Queensland rivals but will need a much better offensive showing all
round, particularly from their halves pairing of Wallace and Lockyer.
Since their return to the NRL last year, the Titans have won two of
three against the Broncos, including a 26-24 win, in Brisbane, back in
round six. With their season on the line and the team still drawing
inspiration from their Captain Scott Princes courageous early return
from a broken arm I believe the match will be closer than the early
prices suggest and am happy to back the Titans with the point start. The
Broncos are welcoming back Hunt, Carroll and Eastwood from injury and
Hodges from suspension, but the side may take some time to reach the
fluency we’ve come to expect and whilst a win to the home side is likely
the Titans are not going to let their season go down the drain without
one heck of a fight. Pick – 2 units on Titans +11.5 point start |
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Tigers to bt Sea Eagles |
2.5 at 2.85 |
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-2.5 |
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One thing is for sure with this clash,
neither of these sides will play as badly as they did last week, with
both coming off absolute shockers, Manly being shocked by Souths and
Wests going down to the Eels in a fumbling and bumbling performance. The
Tigers have now given themselves a very difficult task of making the top
eight, having to win their last three matches, starting with this,
whilst the Sea Eagles all but kissed their Minor Premiership chances
goodbye with their loss. The Tigers, who are close to full strength
(just missing Corey Payne and Todd Payten through suspension), have the
greater motivation for this clash, playing to keep their season alive,
and certainly have the firepower on their home ground to cause the upset
here. When Farah and Marshall have gotten going this season no side have
really been able to contain them, and with both being big game players I
expect them to put on a fine performance in a match dominated by
attacking flair from both sides, with the Tigers coming out on top. Pick
– 2.5 units on Tigers to win |
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Bulldogs vs Eels |
NO PLAY |
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The season’s end can’t come soon enough
for the Bulldogs, with a paper thin defense and impotent offense, they
can’t be looking forward to the prospect of facing a resurgent Eels who
are looking to do a Houdini act and make the top eight. There’s not much
to say for this clash, the Eels have done well over the past two weeks
in downing the Roosters and Tigers but with them being installed as very
hot favourites there’s not a lot of value in this one. Andrew Ryan has
come out during the week and said the Bulldogs want to end the season on
a high to repay their loyal fans, but going on their recent performances
there is just way to much to fix with this side. Whether the winning
margin to the Eels is outside the points start on offer is too close to
call and will come down to the Dogs attitude and whether Ryan can indeed
inspire some pride into the defensive effort. Pick – no play |
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Cowboys +11.5 vs Knights |
2 at 1.91 |
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-2 |
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Newcastle, like so many other teams, are
faced with the task of having to win all three remaining matches to make
the finals and if they’re a chance they’ve got to lift their game
significantly from last weeks loss to Canberra, whilst the Cowboys have
three games remaining in which to try and avoid the Wooden Spoon. This
is by no means going to be an easy match for the Knights, the Cowboys
have named a very strong side, and with their captain and chief
playmaker Thurston having gotten his feet back under the table with last
weeks run I believe he will have a large influence on this match. Last
years corresponding match in Newcastle saw the Cowboys run out 34-18
winners, and while I am certainly not suggesting that will again be the
case, the Bookies have given them a generous point start and I am happy
to back them with that. The Cowboys will be desperate to avoid the
Wooden Spoon and this in itself should be enough to lift to a level
required to at least make this a close match. Pick – 2 units on Cowboys
+11.5 point start |
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Rabbitohs to bt Raiders |
1.5 at 2.65 |
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-1.5 |
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Canberra continued their impressive form
with another thumping win last week over Newcastle, again been lead
superbly on attack by their rising star, Five-Eighth Terry Campese,
meanwhile Souths came up with the win of the season over heavily
favoured Manly at Brookvale Oval, with a standout display from Nathan
Merritt. Souths have named an unchanged side for this clash, whilst
Canberra lose Tom Learoyd-Lars and Justin Carney from the side that beat
Newcastle, joining a growing list of players on the sidelines. Souths
have proven of late that they can mix it with the best of them and,
whilst Canberra’s record away from home has improved, they’re still a
different side on the road and are susceptible to leaving their
intensity in the capital when they board the plane for Sydney. Souths
are not playing for a finals spot but proved last week that they’re not
about to end 2008 with a whimper, and I believe they’ll again turn up to
play this week and run out the victors. Pick – 1.5 units on Souths to
win |
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Dragons -6.0 vs Warriors |
3.5 at 1.92 |
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+3.22 |
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Both these sides are sitting just within
the top eight on 26 points, and with a pack of four sides on 24 points
(and Penrith on 25) breathing down their necks this is not a match
either side can afford to lose, especially the Warriors who have a large
negative points differential. The Warriors have named an unchanged side
to that which beat Cronulla last week, while the Dragons welcome back
Jamie Soward and Ben Creagh to the side that upset the Broncos in
Brisbane. It’s pretty clear cut for mine, the Warriors have never beaten
the Dragons at WIN Stadium and have a poor record away from Auckland in
2008, and with the Dragons welcoming back some key personnel will have
too much on offer for the visitors. The Bookies have got the Dragons as
favourites but the negative point start is not large and I think theirs
money to be made on it. Pick – 3.5 units on Dragons -6.0 point start |
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Panthers vs Storm |
NO PLAY |
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The Storm mean business at this end of the
season and with the type of form they showed in hammering the Roosters
last week it’s hard to see them losing another game in 2008, big call as
it is, they are just a class above every other side in the competition.
The Panthers are boosted by the return of their Hooker Luke Priddis, who
missed their large win over the Bulldogs last week, while the Storm are
without Ryan Hoffman from the side that beat the Roosters. Without
wanting to state the obvious If the Panthers are to be in with any sort
of chance in this match they’re going to have to put in the match of the
season; they do have a huge amount of experience and talent amongst
their ranks in the likes of Priddis, Wesser, Pritchard, Civoniceva,
Waterhouse and co, who are capable of paving the way for an unlikely,
but possible win. The Storm are rightfully hot favourites and I don’t
see any real value in this match, the point start to the Panthers is
generous but given their relatively unpredictable nature it’s not a good
option for Punters; best to sit this one out. Pick – no play |
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NRL ROUND TWENTY-THREE |
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Brisbane -7.5 vs Dragons |
2 at 1.98 |
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-2 |
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With their loss last week to the Tigers
the Dragons have slipped back to now be part of the pack of five teams
on 24 points, with only a healthier points differential keeping them in
the top eight, making this game all the more important for them because
a loss will almost certainly see them exit the eight. The Dragons
welcome back Jason Ryles for this important match but are without Poore
and Creagh in the forwards, and Morris and Soward in the backs whilst
the Broncos, fresh off their loss to the Warriors last week, are still
without Hodges in the Centres, Tonie Carroll and now Karmichael Hunt at
Fullback, but do welcome back Stagg and Thaiday in the forwards. The
Dragons have had it all over Brisbane of late, winning the last six
matches in a row, three of which were played in Brisbane, but are coming
up against a Broncos side hurting from last weeks loss and desperate to
regain their spot in the top four. This should be a great battle, the
Dragons know the recipe for victory in Brisbane but with the injuries
they have will struggle with Brisbane’s intensity and I expect the home
side, led by a dominant forward display, to win well. Pick – 2 units on
Brisbane -7.5 points start |
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Melbourne -12.0 vs Roosters |
3 at 1.93 |
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+2.79 |
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The last four encounters between these two
sides have gone two a piece, with victory going to the home side each
time and I don’t expect that to change in this encounter. There is no
doubt about it that Melbourne are ready to crank it up another gear, and
I expect some flexing of muscles going into the finals following on from
their win last week over Manly, a match characterised by some incredibly
solid defence. Sydney blew the chance to go equal top of the table last
week after going down to the Eels and are without their skipper Craig
Fitzgibbon for this clash, with Anasta taking over the captaincy duties.
It’s short and sweet for this one, the Storm are brimming with class in
every single position and with the Premiership in their grasp are not
about to lose at home, they showed last week what a brilliant defensive
unit they are and will match that this week on attack, with a dominant
all round performance. Pick – 3 units on Melbourne -12.5 or better point
start |
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Warriors -2.5 vs Sharks |
2 at 1.91 |
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+1.82 |
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Cronulla go into this match as equal
competition leaders with the Minor Premiership well within their grasp,
whilst the Warriors are sitting just outside the top eight, desperately
needing the win here to stay with the marauding pack of teams vying to
make the Finals. The Warriors lose Michael Luck for this match, but are
otherwise at full strength, whilst the Sharks have named a full strength
side. With the Warriors having polished off both Melbourne and Brisbane
is their last two games in Auckland they will be confident of causing
another upset here. If the Warriors are to win they need to do
everything they can to destroy the confidence/influence of Cronulla’s
three main stars – Kimmorley, Bird and Gallan – and with a defence
that’s held up to all that’s been thrown it’s way in their last two
victories here I believe they have the momentum and motivation to get
the win, but it’s likely to again be a low scoring scrappy encounter.
Pick – 2 units on Warriors -2.5 point start |
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Cowboys -7.5 vs Gold Coast |
2 at 1.96 |
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-2 |
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North Queensland broke there thirteen
match losing streak in style last week in a dominant display against the
Bulldogs, and in doing so gave themselves a decent chance of avoiding
the Wooden Spoon, so long as they can notch up a few more wins before
the seasons end, starting with this match. The Titans have Mat Rogers
back for this clash but are still decimated through injury, whilst the
Cowboys finally welcome back their captain and chief playmaker Jonathan
Thurston, who will be on a one-man mission to get his side off the
bottom of the table. The Cowboys have a lot of experience and quality in
the forwards and with Thurston running the show in the backs I expect
this to be a dominant all-round effort and a comfortable win to the home
side. Pick – 2 units on North Queensland -7.5 point start |
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Panthers -14.5 vs Bulldogs |
3.5 at 1.91 |
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+3.18 |
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This match against the struggling Bulldogs
could not have come at a better time for the Panthers following their
annihilation at the hands of the Raiders last weekend, with the way the
Bulldogs have been playing it is redemption served on a silver platter.
Panthers Coach Matt Elliot has retained essentially the same side that
lost to Canberra last week and every single one of them will be itching
to get on the field this week to put the Canberra massacre behind them.
There’s not a lot to be said for the Bulldogs, but no doubt Steve Folkes
will feel the words of Steve Sloan pretty much perfectly sums up the
season of 2008: “The sun doesn't shine on the same dog's butt every
day but we sure didn't expect a total eclipse”. I expect the
Panthers to launch into this match and come away with a very
comprehensive victory. Pick – 3.5 units on Panthers -14.5 point start |
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Raiders vs Knights |
NO PLAY |
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This is a vital match for both these sides
as the loser will almost certainly drop out of the top eight and be
faced with a lot of work do to get back in with only a few rounds
remaining. Canberra will have their tails up after demolishing the
Panthers last week, while Newcastle are also backing up after a decent
win over the Titans. The Knights are without Adam McDougall
(suspension), whilst the Raiders have named the same side that hammered
Penrith. I don’t see an edge either way here, Canberra at home will be
very hard to beat, but Newcastle have shown this year they can rise to
such challenges. Pick – no play |
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Souths vs Sea Eagles |
NO PLAY |
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Souths were not able to capitalise on a
huge penalty count in their favour last week in going down to Cronulla,
with the most disappointing aspect of play being their defence close to
the line, which Manly will punish to much greater effect than Cronulla
did last week. There’s not a lot to say about this match, Manly will
obviously be hurting after losing to Melbourne and will be looking to
get their points differential up as high as possible in their bid for
the Minor Premiership. Manly have rightfully been installed as hot
favourites and should win well, but there’s no value in the margins.
Pick – no play |
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Eels vs Wests Tigers |
NO PLAY |
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The Eels kept their faint hopes of making
the finals alive with their win over the Roosters last week, whilst the
Tigers moved into the logjam of five teams on 24 points after their
impressive win over St George. The Eels have won the last seven matches
played between these two sides, including a very comprehensive 44-6
demolition back in round fourteen which will no doubt still be fresh in
the minds of the Tigers who played that day. The Eels have lost Wagon
and Riddell (injured) for this match, while the Tigers are without Todd
Payten (suspended), but do welcome back their captain and fullback Brett
Hodgson. Again, this match is not a good one for the Punters with no
clear edge either way, I like the Tigers by a whisker, but with the Eels
record over them it’s not worth dusting off the wallet for. Pick – no
play |
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NRL ROUND TWENTY-TWO |
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Sea Eagles vs Storm |
NO PLAY |
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The battle for the Minor Premiership heats
up as the 2007 grand finalists go head to head in what is Manly’s chance
at extending their lead over the defending Premiers, or Melbourne’s
chance at drawing even with them on the top of the points table. Both
sides are close to full strength, with the exception of Jamie Lyon for
Manly who is still out injured, and both go into this match following
big wins at home, Manly over Penrith and Melbourne over the Titans.
Brookvale Oval has not been a happy ground for the Storm, having lost
their last five matches in a row to there, Melbourne have however had
the wood on Manly in their last two encounters (including last years
Grand Final), with two big wins, outscoring the Sea Eagles a combined
total of 60-12. Played on any other ground I would be tipping Melbourne
to win this but with the extra leg Manly grow at home it’s balanced the
scales; one things for sure it will be closer than their last two
encounters but from a punters perspective it’s too close to call, I like
Manly by a whisker, but hold onto your wallets. Pick – no play |
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Wests Tigers to bt Dragons |
3.5 at 2.15 |
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+4.02 |
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The Tigers were very impressive last week
in demolishing the Bulldogs, but the most notable early sign for this
match was the press conference that followed, with Tim Sheens not
wanting to dwell at all on the performance, but instead shift all focus
to this match as he knows the Tigers have been guilty of post-win lapses
the following week in 2008. The Dragons put in a good performance
against the Sharks last week, narrowly going down 13-12, and they have
the bonus of welcoming back Mark Gasnier for this match, but are
crucially without Poore and Ryles in the forwards. It’s pretty
straightforward for mine, I believe the Tigers have the mobility in the
forward pack and the playmakers to really hurt some teams in the coming
weeks as they make a charge for the Finals, starting with a win here
over the Dragons. With Marshall and Farah likely to continue where they
left off last week I believe the Dragons will struggle to contain the
Tigers who will play this match, and all to follow, like it’s their
final. Pick – 3.5 units on Tigers to win. |
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Warriors vs Broncos |
NO PLAY |
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Last match the Warriors played in
Auckland, just two weeks ago, they beat the defending Premiers Melbourne
on a rain drenched field, a win that was characterised by some very
solid defence, which is something they will again be required to call on
if they want their 2008 season to stay alive against the Broncos, who
cranked it up a gear last week in thrashing the Raiders, with Darren
Lockyer looking back to his best. The Broncos are without their key
backline ingredient Justin Hodges for this match (suspension) which is
crucial as his presence in the Centres over the past fortnight has seen
the fluency return to the backline; on the other side of the ledger the
Warriors finally welcome back from injury Wade McKinnon at Fullback, a
position that has been amply filled over the past weeks by Lance Hohia,
who moves to the bench. The Warriors simply can’t afford to butcher
tries like they did in losing to Souths last week, especially if the
Broncos defence continues on where it left off against Canberra. Nobody
knows whether the Warriors that beat Melbourne will show up, or the
Warriors that have lost twice to Souths; I believe they’re going to
struggle against a tight Broncos defence so if they are going to give
themselves a chance they’ll have to match the Broncos efforts in that
department, in which case we’ll be in for a low scoring encounter and
not a particularly good one for the punters given the home sides
unpredictable nature. Pick – No Play. |
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Rabbitohs +9.0 vs Sharks |
2 at 1.93 |
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-2 |
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Last time the Rabbitohs beat the Warriors,
as they did last week, it sparked a five match winning streak and as
they enter this match, against a Sharks side they’ve had the wood on in
recent history, winning four of their last six encounters, they will be
confident of another golden run. The Sharks last week again showed what
a gutsy outfit they are and continued their knack of winning tight
matches in coming from behind to beat St George 13-12. It’s short and
sweet for this match, the Bookies have given Souths a decent points
start and up against the kings of the close match, it’s hard to
overlook, especially with the Rabbitohs recent record over the Sharks,
and even though they’re out of the finals race, last weeks effort
against the Warriors showed their intention of finishing the 2008 season
on a high. Pick – 2 units on Souths +10.5 point start. |
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Cowboys -4.5 vs Bulldogs |
2 at 1.93 |
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+1.86 |
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If North Queensland are to avoid the 2008
Wooden Spoon then this is their chance to haul in their closest, and
only, rival for it, and with the side they have named for this match
(and whispers that Thurston may return for it) I expect them to win
well. The Bulldogs defence of late has been thinner than an anorexic
atom and I expect the Cowboys forwards to make huge in-roads, setting
the platform for a try-fest. If Thurston does play then this could get
real messy, if he doesn’t then I expect it to still be comprehensive.
Pick – 2 units on North Queensland head to head. |
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Raiders vs Panthers |
NO PLAY |
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Both these sides are guilty of being up
one week and down the next, usually with the downs being away from home,
where they’ve both struggled in 2008. Canberra received a good wake-up
call last week in being thrashed by the Broncos, as did the Panthers who
received a good dose of punishment from Manly. Canberra have a good run
to the finals and should make it if they manage to win their remaining
three home games, so there should be no room for complacency going into
this match. The Panthers do have the firepower to make this very tough
for the Raiders, but whether they turn up to play or not seems to come
down to some personal motivation (like Pritchard, who’s unstoppable one
week and asleep the next). There is a chance the sacking of Todd Carney
on Thursday will have a disruptive effect on his ex-team mates, but I
still believe Canberra will win, but there’s no value in the margins.
Pick – no play. |
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Eels to bt Roosters |
0.5 at 5.12 |
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+2.06 |
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Eels +14.0 vs Roosters |
3 at 1.90 |
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+2.70 |
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“I could have been a Rhodes
Scholar, except for my grades”, this quote
from Duffy Daugherty pretty much sums up the Eels season of 2008, and
with the faint glimmer of hope they have of making the finals resting on
winning every game from here on, the ‘grades’ have to improve
dramatically, starting with this match against their Sydney foe. The
Eels do boast a favourable record of late against the Roosters, having
won four of their last five matches against them, and I expect the week
to have been full of cramming before what will be their final
examination should they not win. The Roosters continued on their winning
ways against the Cowboys last week, but are still not playing with the
execution and aggression that characterised their early season. I expect
this fierce Sydney’s rivalry to spark the Eels forward pack,
particularly the senior members, and if they can rediscover some team
cohesion then they’re in for a real show of winning this one and at the
very least making it close. Pick – 3 units on Eels +12.5 or better point
start and 0.5 units on Eels head to head. |
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Titans vs Knights |
NO PLAY |
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The wind has well and truly left the sails
of the Titans side, after sprinting out of the blocks early in the
season they were officially reduced down to a walk last week by a
rampant Melbourne Storm, and this week face a Newcastle side who are
coming home with a wet sail, led superbly by their senior players. While
both these sides share the same points on the ladder, Newcastle have
looked by far the more impressive and I expect them to win, but the
Titans at home will be hard to bury so it could be a close one, with no
value in the margins. Pick – no play. |
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NRL ROUND TWENTY-ONE |
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Storm -24.5 vs Titans |
3.5 at 1.93 |
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+3.25 |
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Last weeks big loss to the Raiders saw the
Titans finally yield their place in the top eight and barring a miracle
their slide down the ladder will continue this week against a Storm side
who last week were downed by the Warriors in a Wintry match in Auckland,
missing their chance to go equal top of the table in the process. It
doesn’t get much tougher in rugby league than facing the Storm in
Melbourne, let alone after they’ve dropped a match, and with so many top
players missing from the Titans I expect Melbourne to put on a show of
force and notch up a big win. The Storm have named a full strength side
for this match, welcoming back Billy Slater from his one match
suspension. Last years corresponding match at Olympic Park saw a huge
win to Melbourne 50-6, and I would not be surprised if this match
resulted in a similar score line. Pick – 3.5 units on Melbourne -24.5
point start. |
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Sea Eagles vs Panthers |
NO PLAY |
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The Sea Eagles will have been hurting this
week following their big defeat to the Roosters, and it will be the
player attitudes that coach Des Hassler will be working on for this
clash, hoping to stamp out any top of the table complacency; their
efforts will be helped by the return of Luke Williamson and Glenn
Stewart to the forwards. The Panthers welcome back Frank Pritchard for
this clash, in whose absence they delivered another solid performance in
downing the Tigers last week, and they’ll be hoping the big Kiwi forward
can continue on with his rampaging form, in which he’s cut a swath
through defences, seemingly at will, creating opportunities that team
mates have happily taken. I expect Manly to perform a lot better than
last week but the Panthers are playing with a confidence that should
ensure this is a close contest, but at Brookvale and with the Minor
Premiership in sight the Sea Eagles should be too tough to crack. Pick –
No Play. |
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Sharks -3.0 vs Dragons |
3 at 1.93 |
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-3 |
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The Sharks have named their strongest side
in a long time with the eagerly awaited return of Greg Bird from injury,
whose presence may have been just enough to get them the win last week
in a close fought 12-18 loss to the Broncos. With Birds return the
Sharks have more options on attack and another imposing figure on
defence, and it is their blue wall of defence that is where the Sharks
will look to suffocate the Dragons, who are without Mark Gasnier in the
Centres. The Dragons go into this match fresh off a comfortable win over
the Bulldogs, but doubts still remain about their ability against top
four sides that are at (or close to) full strength, and this match could
be a good indicator as to whether they’ve got the goods to mix it in the
finals. The Sharks know that a few more losses would see them out of the
top-four, undoing their excellent early-to-mid season efforts; but I
expect them to relish having Bird back in the side and in front of what
should be a big home crowd, clock up a comfortable win. Pick – 3 units
on Sharks -4.5 or better point start |
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Cowboys +11.5 vs Roosters |
2 at 1.91 |
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-2 |
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It’s fair to say the season of 2008 has
been a very forgettable one for the Cowboys, losing their head coach
early on, then a spate of injuries, most notably to Matty Bowen and
Jonathan Thurston, all of which has lead to them being bottom of the
table and a good bet for the Wooden Spoon. With nothing to play for now
other than pride and the slim chance of avoiding the Wooden Spoon, the
Cowboys go into this match without any weight of expectation on their
shoulders and, I believe, have a very good chance at making life
difficult for the Roosters, with a forward pack, bolstered by the return
of Luke O’Donnell, that is overdue for a display befitting of their
talent and experience, I believe we’re about to see them spark some life
into the Cowboys and give those loyal fans, who are still willing to
travel to the matches from all corners of North Queensland, something to
cheer about. The Roosters were impressive last week in downing Manly, a
match they were always going to be up for after losing two in a row, but
with the long trip to Townsville and expectation they’ll win and win
well, this bodes as a completely different challenge to that of last
week and it will be difficult to maintain that same level of attitude
and intensity against a Cowboys side with nothing to lose. Pick – 2
units on Cowboys +11.5 point start |
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Rabbitohs vs Warriors |
NO PLAY |
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Last time these two sides met was in
Auckland in a match that the Warriors were expected to win well, but it
was Souths that came away with the points in what was the start of their
five match winning streak; however that streak has now unceremoniously
ended with two heavy defeats, the first to Wests and then to Newcastle
last week. The emergence of Chris Sandow for Souths has been a big
talking point, but has also lead to him being heavily targeted, to good
effect in the last two matches, and it will be no different this week
against the Warriors, whose defence last week against Melbourne was
spectacular in winning the match 8-6, which extended their winning
streak to four in a row. The Warriors have named an unchanged side
whilst Souths welcome back their impressive Hooker Issac Luke. The
Warriors have won the last two matches played at ANZ Stadium against
Souths but I would approach this match with caution as they don’t make
good favourites and Souths will be hoping a win here could spark another
golden run for them. Pick – No Play. |
|
Wests Tigers -12.5 vs Bulldogs |
3 at 1.97 |
|
+2.91 |
|
Last weeks thrashing by the Dragons was a
further kick in the guts to the Bulldogs club after Sonny Bill Williams
ditched them, without a word, for a flight to France, which pours salt
into the wounds of the Bulldogs 2008 season, and I don’t expect a big
turnaround in this match. After their loss to Penrith last week the
Tigers are now in a logjam outside the top eight with plenty of work
ahead of them, not only to win matches but to do so in style and get
their points differential into the positives. The essence of this match
is that the Tigers have everything to play for and complacency won’t be
an issue for them, whilst I expect the Dogs to struggle to rise mentally
for this match, all resulting in a very comfortable Tigers win. Pick – 3
units on Tigers -12.5 point start |
|
Broncos vs Raiders |
NO PLAY |
|
The Raiders brushed aside all the
controversies surrounding Todd Carney last week and clocked up another
very impressive win over the Titans, casting aside doubts as to whether
they’ll still be able to make the finals without their talented
halfback, with a huge collective game from the forwards and continued
class from the backline. The Broncos meanwhile clocked up a hard fought
18-12 win over a typically tenacious Sharks side at ANZ Stadium, keeping
them within striking range of a crucial top four spot and whilst not
always smooth, the backline did look better off with the return of
Hodges, who will need to draw on all his class marking Joel Monaghan in
this match. The battle between the forward packs will be huge, but it
will be in the backs where the match is won, with both sides fielding
their share of game-breakers, if the Raiders defence holds we could be
in for an upset, but I get the feeling the Broncos are ready to go up
another gear from last week and at home will be too strong, but there’s
no value in the margins. Pick – No Play. |
|
Knights vs Eels |
NO PLAY |
|
This match is a ‘must win’ for both these
sides, with the loser almost certainly falling out of the finals race
for 2008. Of both these sides it is Newcastle who have been the more
impressive in 2008 playing with heart and enthusiasm, which is something
that can’t be said for the Eels, who have looked pedestrian for most of
the season, which was no different in their uninspiring win over the
Cowboys last week. The Eels look to still be without Feleti Mateo for
this match, with both sides naming unchanged line-ups. It’s been a case
of ‘watch this space’ with the Eels for most of the back-end of the
season, waiting for a head-turning performance but it’s just not come
and doesn’t look likely, meaning this match will probably spell the end
of their 2008 chances. The key to Newcastle is the fact their senior
players keep putting their hands up week in and week out, leading the
way forward, with the rest of the team following, whilst the same can’t
be said for the senior players within Parramatta. I believe Newcastle
will win but who knows if the ‘sudden death’ element to this match will
spark Parramatta, if it doesn’t then the Knights will be dining out on
Jellied-Eels. Pick – No Play. |
|
NRL ROUND TWENTY |
|
Broncos -6.5 vs Sharks |
2 at 1.93 |
|
-2 |
|
This has the makings of a great match-up
between two sides who are vying for a top four finish. The Sharks last
week restored some confidence after there heavy loss to Manly in downing
Newcastle at home whilst the Broncos disposed of a very weak North
Queensland side in Townsville. Good news for the Broncos is that they’ll
have both Tonie Carroll and Justin Hodges back for this clash, and it
will be Hodges, fresh from suspension, who I expect to have a big impact
in the Centres and restore the fluidity that has not quite been there
for the Broncos in his absence. This is the strongest Broncos side named
in a long time and with work ahead of them to break into the top four I
expect them to move up a gear for this clash and, with a large home
crown behind them, put on a well overdue display of rugby league that
supporters of the NRL have come to expect from this great club. Cronulla
have only won one of eight games at Suncorp Stadium and I don’t expect
them to improve on that record in this match. Pick – 2 units on Broncos
-6.5 point start. |
|
Eels vs Cowboys |
NO PLAY |
|
Before the 2008 season got underway it
would be inconceivable to have looked at this clash and predicted it
would be anything but a jostling match between two sides entrenched in
the top-eight, but instead it’s a battle between sides placed 16th
(Cowboys) and 13th (Eels), and with the way both these sides have played
of late this will be anything but a spectacle. The Cowboys have been hit
hard with injuries this season, losing Matty Bowen early and more
recently Thurston, both of whom have been instrumental in the Cowboys
successes of seasons gone by; the same can’t be said for Parramatta who,
whilst they did lose Tim Smith early on, have been nothing short of
average, not just in their lack of structure and creativity, but in
their lack of heart, which is the cornerstone of any proud club, and it
is that aspect that must make the clubs past legends and current fans
most disgusted. The Eels should win this week, and I believe they will
comfortably, but then again, we’ve been saying that for some time now.
Pick – No Play |
|
Raiders vs Titans |
NO PLAY |
|
The Raiders were again outstanding last
week in disposing of the Roosters in very convincing fashion, putting
themselves in the prime spot to break into the top eight with a win this
weekend over a struggling Titians team who have lost four of their last
five matches. The Raiders have been dealt a major blow in the form of
Todd Carney mistaking a bar patrons leg for a Urinal and is not named
for this match, with unknown Marc Herbert cast into the side, which will
no doubt mean a greater workload for Campese as he shoulders more of the
attack. The Titans showed two rounds back in defeating the Roosters in
Sydney that even without the likes of Prince and Bailey they still have
a side capable of big things, and with the unwanted interruption to the
Raiders they will fancy themselves for a win; I do believe however there
has been too much hard work done over the last 5-6 weeks by the Raiders
to blow a chance like this to break into the top eight and they will
come away with the win, but there’s no value in the margins betting.
Pick – No Play |
|
Wests Tigers to bt Panthers |
2 at 2.20 |
 |
-2 |
|
This has all the makings of a great match
with two very even sides, both hitting their straps last weekend with
two very convincing wins, the Tigers over Souths and the Panthers over
the Titans. The Panthers are currently sitting in 8th spot, with Frank
Pritchard having been nothing short of outstanding for them in recent
matches. Benji Marshall showed flashes of his brilliant best against
Souths, and with Robbie Farrah looking a class act at Halfback, I feel
the Tigers, who welcome back their captain Brett Hodgson for this match,
will have a bit more to offer on attack than the Panthers, and as long
as they can stop Pritchard wreaking havoc, should come away with the
points and exact some revenge on their 30-8 thrashing by Penrith in
Round 4. Pick – 2 units on Tigers to win |
|
Storm -8.0 vs Warriors |
3 at 1.95 |
|
-3 |
|
The Warriors are on their best streak of
the season with three wins in a row, but those wins have come against
the Tigers (who did not have a good day), the Cowboys and Bulldogs, all
teams currently outside the top-eight (the Cowboys and Bulldogs last and
second to last respectively) and they’re going to find this match-up
against the Storm a huge leap up in class. The Storm will be without
Billy Slater for this match, but are otherwise at full strength, and
with their golden boy Michael Crocker set to play they are at short odds
to extend his remarkable record of never having lost a match playing for
the Storm. This could be a good scrap early on but as the big Warriors
start to tire in the face of wave after wave of Storm attack, gaps will
start to appear and I expect the score will mount against the home side.
Pick – 3 units on Storm -8.0 point start. |
|
Knights -7.5 vs Rabbitohs |
3.5 at 1.93 |
|
+3.25 |
|
The Knights return home for this clash
after yet another gutsy effort against Cronulla last week, just going
down in the end 13-16, whilst the Rabbitohs had their 5 match winning
streak comprehensively ended by the Tigers, who targeted Rookie halfback
Chris Sandow to good effect, which is a tactic the Knights will no doubt
employ in this match. Neither side has been hit hard by injuries but
Souths will be without their influential Hooker Issac Luke through
suspension. The Knights have been by far the better side in 2008 and
have been unlucky with a number of very narrow losses and whilst Souths
were courageous during their five match streak, it is the end of the
season that tends to reflect the entire seasons efforts and they’re just
going to find the Knights too committed and too strong in front of what
should be a large and boisterous Novocastrian crowd. Pick – 3.5 units on
Newcastle -7.5 point start |
|
Roosters to bt Sea Eagles |
2.5 at 2.17 |
|
+2.93 |
|
It’s not been a good two weeks for the
Roosters having suffered two upset defeats, the first at the hands of
the Titans and then last week by Canberra in a very one sided affair;
Manly on the other hand continued their charge for the Minor Premiership
with a win over the Eels last week, doing so without their captain Matt
Orford, who is again in serious doubt for this match and will more than
likely join Jamie Lyon on the sideline. The loss of both Orford and Lyon
for this clash would be a significant boost for the Roosters whose
record against manly over recent years is atrocious, having not beaten
them since 2004, with the last two encounters being 42-0 and 56-0
annihilations. The Roosters are a class outfit and we can’t forget,
prior to their two match slide, they were equal competition leaders and
against a Manly side, who will likely be missing there top two
playmakers, should steady the boat and get their eyes set firmly on
securing their position in the top four. Look out for the Roosters big
guns in Anasta, Mason, Roberts, O’Meley and co to put their hands up and
pave the way for a Roosters victory. Pick – 2.5 units on Roosters to win |
|
Dragons vs Bulldogs |
NO PLAY |
|
It’s been an interesting fortnight for
both these sides with the Dragons winning streak crashing to a halt with
two straight losses, whilst the Bulldogs followed up their shock victory
over Brisbane with an average display in going down to the Warriors in
Sydney, displaying that paper-thin defence that has dogged them all
season. The Bulldogs have the huge boost in welcoming back Sonny Bill
Williams for this clash, whilst the Dragons have named an unchanged side
from that which went down to Melbourne last Monday night. The Bulldogs
have lost 4 of their last 5 at ANZ Stadium, whilst the Dragons have won
4 of their last 5 matches at the ground; over recent years however the
Bulldogs have had it all over St George with the Dragons last victory
over their Sydney rivals coming back in 2003. I expect this to be a
great match with the winner being to close to call. Pick – No Play |
|
NRL ROUND NINETEEN |
|
Eels to bt Sea Eagles |
0.5 at 5.00 |
|
-0.5 |
|
Eels +13.5 vs Sea Eagles |
2.5 at 1.85 |
|
-2.5 |
|
The great let-down that is the Eels season
carried on its merry way last week with another ordinary display in
going down to Souths, whilst at the other end of the spectrum the Sea
Eagles continued to look a class above their opposition with a
commanding win over Cronulla, at Shark Park. With the Sea Eagles
returning home for this clash and maintaining a charmed run without any
serious injuries it should be business as usual at Brookvale, but I am
not convinced it will be anywhere near the margin the Eels CEO is
predicting (40 points!), and believe Parramatta will make a closer
contest of this match than is expected. I don’t know what the issues are
within the Eels side that is making them perform like they are, but
after each pathetic display I expect a headline to come out about some
sort of player/coach revolt, but nothing as yet…anyway, back to this
match, there are enough experienced players in the Eels who have been
through similar crises, and with this match close to make or break for
them I expect there’s been a week of team meetings and good old
fashioned soul searching about why they play this great game – to win! I
expect some brutal defence from both sides and for the Eels to finally
react to the stinging criticism they’ve rightfully received from all and
sundry and show some ticker. Pick – 2.5 units on Eels +13.5 point start
and 0.5 units on Eels to win |
|
Cowboys vs Broncos |
NO PLAY |
|
Both these sides go into this match fresh
off a loss last week, the Cowboys going down to the Warriors in
Auckland, while the Broncos were shocked at home by the Bulldogs. The
critical factor in this Queensland Derby is the absence of Jonathan
Thurston, if he was taking the field I felt the Cowboys had a good
chance of toppling the Broncos, but without his influence the Cowboys
are going to really struggle to create opportunities against the 7th
placed Broncos, who will be anything but happy with where they find
themselves at this end of the season and will look at every game as a
chance to build towards a top four finish. This is traditionally a tough
fought battle and whilst I expect the Broncos to win, the Cowboys should
lift and make it a contest at least. Pick – No Play |
|
Titans vs Panthers |
NO PLAY |
|
The Titans surprised everyone last week
with a brilliant effort in downing a full strength Roosters side in
Sydney, doing so without a host of key injured players who they will
again be without for this match. While the Titans strengthened their
chances of a finals spot the Panthers damaged theirs, losing to
Newcastle at home, moving them to within one point of five hungry teams
all trying to crack into the top eight. The Titans will be desperate to
keep up the same level of intensity for this match and restore the faith
of their home fans, having lost their last two matches at Skilled Park,
whilst the Panthers know a loss will put them outside the top eight and
with a hill to climb to get back in. This match is too close to call.
Pick – No Play |
|
Sharks vs Knights |
NO PLAY |
|
Ricky Stuart would have been true to form
this week and given the Sharks an absolute bollocking at training
following their large defeat at home to Manly, and he will do all within
his powers to ensure that loss was not the start of the Sharks familiar
end of season slide down the table. Newcastle impressed last week with
their upset win over the Panthers, led brilliantly by Kurt Gidley who
did everything within his powers, playing a duel Hooker/Fullback role,
to get his side home, and it will be his influence again this week that
will be telling on this result, with the Knights again missing regular
captain Danny Buderas. The Knights need the win to crack into the top
eight but are going to find this a tougher proposition than last week,
whether they’ll be good enough to topple what should be a much improved
Sharks side is tough to call. I favour the Sharks to get the points but
again this is one to sit out. Pick – No Play |
|
Bulldogs vs Warriors |
NO PLAY |
|
The Bulldogs officials must be feeling in
good spirits after their sides remarkable victory over Brisbane last
week, celebrating by throwing open the gates to all New Zealanders and
other Pacific Island neighbours for this clash, which should serve to
favour the Warriors, who last week finally strung together consecutive
wins in downing North Queensland. Given the nature of both these sides,
trying to predict the result of this match comes down to a complete
guess, which is not what this forum is about. My guess is Warriors to
make it three in a row, but who knows. Pick – No Play |
|
Raiders vs Roosters |
NO PLAY |
|
The Roosters were left stunned by an
injury depleted Gold Coast last week, blowing a great opportunity to
collect two valuable points in their race for the minor premiership;
whilst Canberra on the other hand kept their hopes of making the finals
alive with an upset win over St George. The Raiders have enjoyed success
over the Roosters at Canberra Stadium in recent times, winning their
last three clashes, but I am struggling to tip them to make it four as
this Roosters side will be very fired up after their shock loss last
week, and any chance of them taking Canberra lightly vanished with that
result. The Bookies are right to install the Roosters as favourites but
there’s every chance of another giant slaying performance by this
Raiders side that, on it’s day, is as good as any in the competition.
Pick – No Play |
|
Souths vs Wests Tigers |
NO PLAY |
|
The fairytale continued last week for
Souths in beating the Eels and notching up their 5th consecutive win and
in the process keeping the Bunnies faint hopes of making the finals
alive. The Tigers find themselves in the pack of five teams all sitting
on 18 points, just a win outside of the top eight, and go into this
match off the back of four consecutive losses and could be without their
Captain Brett Hodgson who is in doubt for this clash through injury and
they can ill-afford to be without his experience and attacking prowess..
This has all the makings of a great match; just who will come out on top
is too close to call, I like the Tigers by a whisker but they do
struggle at ANZ Stadium, losing their last five outings there, so it’s
not worth the punt. Pick – No Play |
|
Storm -13.5 vs Dragons |
3 at 1.91 |
 |
+2.73 |
|
The last time these two sides met was in
Round 10 in Sydney and it was a very different looking Storm side that
took the field, missing 11 first choice players that day through Origin
selection, but the tides have turned for this match with the Storm now
at home and with a full strength side set to exert some revenge on the
Dragons. The Storm’s record over the Dragons is excellent and I expect
this match to be one-way traffic; this is by far the toughest line-up
the Dragons have had to face since their charmed march up the table
began and I don’t expect all the fanfare around Mark Gasnier’s departure
to have done the their preparation any favours – Melbourne to win by a
very healthy margin. Pick – 3 units on Melbourne -13.5 point start |
|
NRL ROUND EIGHTEEN |
|
Roosters -19.5 vs Titans |
2.5 at 2.01 |
|
-2.5 |
|
Unfortunately for the Titans it looks like
the season of 2008 is well and truly slipping away from them, with last
weeks 36-14 hammering by Manly, at what was earlier in the season the
fortress of Skilled Park, just emphasising the impact key injuries have
had on the side. While the Titans dig deep just to keep within sight of
a possible play-off spot, the Roosters, with Origin distractions now
behind them, will have their eyes set firmly on winning the minor
premiership. The Titans do not travel well at the best of times and
coupled with their injury woes and dwindling confidence, the Roosters
could be about to deliver more serious body blows to their season in the
form of a big win. Sides hoping to breach this fierce Roosters defence
must offer something special but unfortunately the Titans lose a
dimension on attack when Scott Prince is not playing, and are going to
struggle to cross the line; on the other hand the Roosters will look to
continue their impressive attacking prowess, led by Anasta and Pierce,
and will have a number of forwards looking to put the disappointment of
the NSW Origin loss behind them with a dominant performance. I expect
this to be a very comfortable win to the Roosters. Pick – 2.5 units on
Roosters – 19.5 points start. |
|
Panthers vs. Knights |
NO PLAY |
|
Last weeks win over the Eels saw the
Panthers leapfrog the Knights on the points table and has them now
sitting in the top eight, whilst the Knights loss to St George now has
them sitting in 11th place, and having to face at least another three
weeks without their injured captain Danny Buderas. Penrith on the other
hand welcome back their dynamic Hooker Luke Priddis for this clash, and
there is no doubt his long awaited return from injury will further lift
the growing confidence of this side. Luke Lewis has taken to Halfback
better than coach Matt Elliot could have anticipated and is leading the
way in attack with both a running and kicking game that continues to
trouble the opposition, whilst the forwards have all been busy, no more
so over recent weeks than Frank Pritchard, whose impressive line breaks
and offloads continue to wreak havoc. Even with all the plus’s in favour
of the Panther’s I recommend approaching this match with real caution as
the Knights are a very gutsy outfit and whenever their backs have been
against the wall in 2008 they have more often than not dug deep and
surprised, so I’m going to recommend sitting this one out. The Panthers
should win but…. Pick – No Play |
|
Warriors vs. Cowboys |
NO PLAY |
|
The Warriors lived up to their predictably
unpredictable tag in beating the Tigers (away from home!) in their last
outing before the bye, whilst the Cowboys lived up to their
underachieving tag of 2008 in their last outing with a loss to Souths,
in a match that saw them give up a 24 point lead in the second half. The
Cowboys welcome back Thurston for this match, while the Warriors have
Tate and Price back on board. Short and sweet, the Warriors should win,
with a near full strength side at home, and if this was a tipping
competition I’d back them, but this is a forum where money is involved
and considering their unpredictable nature, and habit of following up a
win with an average display, it is not worth dusting off your wallets
for. Pick – No Play |
|
Rabbitohs vs. Eels |
NO PLAY |
|
The Eels are without doubt, when you
consider the talent they have amongst their ranks, the most
underachieving side thus far in 2008 and even as a non-fan it is hard
not to shake your head in disgust at the lack of intensity and general
hunger they have brought to some of their matches. These sides had
contrasting results last week, with the Eels going down at home to a
gutsy Panthers side, whilst the Rabbitohs shocked the Bulldogs on Monday
night, coming back from 18 points down to win the match in extra time,
giving them their fourth win in a row and a sniff at the top-eight if
they keep it up. Souths’ young half-back Chris Sandow has become a real
talking point over their winning stretch, providing spark on attack and
steering play like an old pro, and with the type of momentum the Bunnies
have built up it is hard to oppose them, as this side is currently
lacking nothing in character and heart. We all know what the Eels are
capable of on their day however (they destroyed Wests 44-6 just four
rounds ago) but who’s to know just what side will turn up, so again this
is not a good match for Punters. Pick – No Play |
|
Sea Eagles -2.5 vs Sharks
|
2.5 at 1.93 |
|
+2.32 |
|
Two of the competition leaders, and fierce
Sydney rivals, square off at Shark Park in what promises to be a very
entertaining and close battle, with both sides possessing strong
defensive records, but Manly by far the stronger attacking side, easily
leading the competition in points scored. Cronulla are still without
Greg Bird, who does add another component to their attack, but even
without him two weeks ago they showed what a class outfit they are in
savaging the Raiders in Canberra, a trip a lot of teams have found tough
in 2008. Manly, who continued their winning ways last week in
comfortably downing the Titans (notching up their fifth consecutive
win), will not leak tries like the Raiders did and will also ask a lot
more questions on attack as they have a knack of probing right across
the field, with no set centre of attack, making life tough for teams to
defend against. Manly are not daunted playing away from home and I
expect them to notch their 6th consecutive win in this match. Pick – 2.5
units on Manly -2.5 point start |
|
Dragons vs. Raiders |
NO PLAY |
|
The Dragons welcome back Mark Gasnier this
week, and his pair-up with Cooper in the Centres will no doubt create
headaches for the Raiders defensively, who will need to be at their best
to prevent their third straight loss after going down last week to the
Storm. There is no doubt that Canberra do have a side capable of halting
the Dragons seven game winning streak, but the task is made much harder
without Mr Perpetual Motion – their captain Alan Tongue. The Dragons are
rightfully favourites and should make it eight wins in a row, but
whether Canberra can make it closer than the Bookies point start or not
is tough to call. Pick – No Play |
|
Broncos vs. Bulldogs |
NO PLAY |
|
Darren Lockyer has been named in a very
strong looking Brisbane side for this match as they start their
post-origin surge for the top-four, up against a Bulldogs side whose
confidence would have been dealt a hefty blow in going down to Souths in
extra time last week, after leading 24-6 in the second half. The
Bulldogs have shown in the past they’re not daunted by the trip to
Brisbane, having won three of their last five matches there, but this is
a side that is down on confidence and if they get behind early on heads
will drop and things will get ugly. I expect the Broncos to win and win
well, but there’s no value in the point starts. Pick – No Play |
|
Wests Tigers +8.5 vs Storm |
1.5 at 1.94 |
|
| | | |
