NRL PREVIEWS & PLAYS
...with OTP's National Rugby League expert
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NRL ROUND TWENTY-THREE
Broncos to beat Cowboys
3 at 1.92
+2.76
The Cowboys get a double dose of good news this week in welcoming back
both Thurston and Scott from injury for this derby, which tends to bring
out the best in these sides, and what makes this match even more special
is the fact it's Lockyer's 350th for the Broncos. It’s hard for me to go
past the Broncos here, not just because of the Lockyer milestone factor
but they have so many players that are playing at the very top of their
game, none more so than Lockyer and Wallace in the halves, and have a
big match temperament required for such occasions. Anything short of a
Broncos win will be an injustice to Lockyer as he celebrates his record
setting appearance and every member of this Broncos side will be
determined to mark his milestone in style - which they'll do with a win.
Get on the Broncos. Pick - 3 units on Broncos to win
Raiders to beat Rabbitohs
2 at 2.30
-2
The Raiders left side defence took a pounding last week in their loss to
the Knights but it was not altogether surprising given their poor record
on the road, this week is a different story though as they're back at
home where they're generally a completely different team. The Rabbitohs
go into this off the back of their best performance of the season in
humiliating the Eels on Monday night but their schizophrenic nature in
2011 means that one can't base too much on that effort when considering
this weeks outcome and I for one am siding with the Raiders at the
inviting odds to come away with the win. The Raiders certainly have the
players in the forwards to match it with the Bunnies pack and they’ll be
smarting having been dominated last week, whilst the backline will have
worked hard, particularly the left side, on plugging those holes that
the Knights found with ease. The last time the Raiders played at home
they beat the Dragons in a huge performance and given the Bunnies poor
record in Canberra (have won just 3 of 11) I'm happy to go against the
bookies and back the upset win to the home side. Pick - 2 units on
Raiders to win
Dragons -17.5 v Roosters
4 at 1.91
-4
This is exactly the type of game the Dragons need following some tough
losses over the past few weeks as they'll get a chance to well and truly
restore any lost confidence here against a Roosters side in turmoil
following yet another heavy loss last week, along with the midweek
dramas surrounding both Carney and Myles who have both dropped for this.
Short and sweet here, the Dragons will be absolutely ruthless on defence
and the Roosters won't reach double figures, whilst they'll launch wave
after wave of attack on the thin Roosters line and clock up a huge
total. The Roosters are going to be outplayed in every facet of play and
even though the line from the bookies is large, it’s still nowhere near
large enough. Pick – 4 units on Dragons -17.5 point start
(BEST BET)
NRL ROUND TWENTY-TWO
Bulldogs to beat Cowboys
4 at 2.05
+4.2
The Dogs were not far off last week in losing to the Roosters and I
fancy them to cause a minor upset here against a Cowboys side that's
been flying high without their captain Thurston but who are still
susceptible in Sydney, where they tend to reserve their worst games for.
The Dogs captain Andrew Ryan announced during the week that this will be
his last season in the NRL and given what a stalwart he's been for the
Bulldogs club the side will be determined to send him out as best they
can and make a late charge for the finals, starting with a comprehensive
win here. Once the Cowboys get behind on the scoreboard, as I expect
they will early on here, they'll be found wanting in the leadership
department and the Dogs will be all over them and continue on with the
offensive rejuvenation we saw from them last week led by Roberts,
Hodkinson and Barba. Get on the Dogs for the win! Pick – 4 units on
Bulldogs to win (BEST BET)
Dragons -4.0 v Tigers
3 at 1.92
-3
It was only a few weeks ago that the Dragons were
looking a shoe-in for the minor premiership but it's been a rough time
for them of late as they've slipped to fifth on the table with their
latest loss coming against the Rabbitohs last week. The main concern for
the Dragons will on defence where they've been uncharacteristically
loose and they'll have worked very hard this week on setting their line
and pushing up, particularly around the ruck where the Tigers are most
dangerous, and It'll take more than what the Tigers have to offer to get
enough tries here to come away with the victory. The Dragons are back to
full strength with the return of Dean Young, who will add another
dimension on attack, and we'll see a return to their clinical play based
around field position which will give Hornby and Soward plenty of
opportunity to wreak havoc on the Tigers line. The Dragons are a
champion side and will be well and truly up for this which means big
trouble for the Tigers. Pick – 3 units on Dragons -4.5 point or better start
Panthers +14.5 v Storm
3 at 1.92
-3
This is the second tough road game in a row for the
Panthers, having lost to the Cowboys in Townsville last weekend, but
that match will have prepared them well for this clash and they are not
to be written off. Any forward pack that boasts the likes of Waterhouse,
Civoniceva and Lewis should not be taken lightly and with Walsh in top
form calling the shots from halfback this could well be a lot closer
than the odds suggest and I’m happy to back the Panthers with the
generous point start. The Storm scraped home last week against the Eels
with their offence suffering through Widdop’s absence at five-eighth and
with Blair having to again fill that gap this week they could well find
themselves at less than 100% on attack. The point start on offer to the
Panthers is very much worth backing. Pick – 3 units on Panthers +14.5
point start
NRL ROUND TWENTY-ONE
Tigers +6.5 v Sea Eagles
3 at 1.92
+2.76
These sides are both playing close to the top of
their games and this promises to be a great battle between the two
five-eighths in Foran and Marshall, it's the older head of Marshall that
I'm backing to come out on top though and with the support he's now
receiving across the park, particularly amongst the forwards, he'll have
a good platform from which to bamboozle the opposition defensive line.
This match will be played at finals intensity and the line on offer from
the bookies, in what I expect to be a very even match, is inviting as
these two go tit-for-tat offensively. Short and sweet here - back the
Tigers with the point start. Pick – 3 units on Tigers +6.5 point start
Roosters to beat Bulldogs
3 at 1.87
+2.61
The Bulldogs showed last week against the Eels that
they do still have life in them but so to did the Roosters who, despite
losing, put in a gutsy effort against the Tigers and showed that their
offensive woes are behind them which could spell trouble for the Dogs
who themselves have only managed 20 points in their last two matches.
Both these traditionally lift for what is always a fiery Sydney derby
but raw emotion can only get you so far and Brian Smith will ensure that
his side's heads are in the right space to deal with what the Dogs throw
their way whilst Dymock’s inexperience as a head coach at this level
could hurt the Dogs. The Bookies have had trouble splitting these two
sides so there's good value on the Roosters win which I recommend
getting on. Pick – 3 units on Roosters to win
Raiders +7.5 v Warriors
3 at 1.94
-3
The Warriors go into this with three wins on the trot
but this is potentially their toughest match in a while against a
Raiders side that's fit and full of confidence following their win over
the Dragons on Monday night. Despite their road troubles the Raiders are
still good value here with the generous point start and showed last week
that they've not given up on their season and they’ll play here with the
desperation of a side that has to win all their remaining games, and
they do have the x-factor players to achieve that. I expect the Raiders
forwards to muscle up here and for Tongue to play with all the
experience and skill we have come to expect from him and cause major
headaches around the ruck which will create space for the classy outside
backs in Fergusson, Vidot and Dugan. The Warriors have had some pretty
ordinary opposition of late and built up some false confidence which
could backfire on them here. Get on the Raiders with the point start.
Pick – 3 units on Raiders +7.5 point start
Knights -8.0 v Titans
4 at 1.92
+3.68
The Knights all of a sudden have a nice look about their side with
Gidley named at Fullback, and the impressive Stig named to partner
Mullen in the Halves, throw De Gois in at Hooker and a few other top
class players around them and you’ve got a good reason to expect a big
victory here over the pathetic Titans. The Titans senior players have
not stood tall this season, none more so than Prince who has looked
disinterested, and they seem to be getting worse as the season
progresses. I expected a much larger point start for the Titans here but
am certainly not about to complain as we cash in on the Knights to win
by plenty. Pick – 4 units on Knights -8.5 or better point start
(BEST BET)
NRL ROUND TWENTY
Storm -4.0 v Broncos
3 at 1.87
+2.61
The Storm have looked untouchable of late and will relish this
opportunity to front up against a fellow top four side and it would be a
brave man who bet against them winning here given the form they're in,
none more so that the big three of Slater, Cronk and Smith. Not only are
the Storm fronting offensively but they have an ominously clinical
defence that kept the Raiders pointless last week in Canberra and I'm
not convinced the Broncos will have enough offensive power to match
them. The bookies have the Storm as favourites but at home they go up
yet another gear and I'm happy to back them to cover the point start.
Pick – 3 units on Storm -6.5 or better point start
Tigers -6.5 v Roosters
3 at 1.92
+2.76
The Tigers brushed off rumours of a rift in their camp last week by
thrashing the Cowboys in Townsville, this week they're back at
Leichhardt Oval where they're always tough to beat and will be too
strong for the Roosters who, whilst on the improve, are still a few
paces short of the top sides, the Tigers being one of them. When Benji
Marshall is at the top of his game, which he's not far off now, the
Tigers are an unstoppable force with Farah controlling the ruck and
those two linking to cause all sorts of headaches for the opposition and
given the Roosters defensive frailties I'm sure we'll see them notch up
a big total again here. Short and sweet, the Roosters lack continuity in
their play and I expect the Tigers forwards to muscle up and provide the
ascendancy from which Farah and Marshall can orchestrate tries, and
plenty of them. Get on the Tigers to cover the line. Pick – 3 units on
Tigers -6.5 point start
Rabbitohs to beat Warriors
4 at 2.14
-4
Despite their relative standings on the table I’m still surprised the
bookies have the Warriors as favourites here as their only two wins in
the last seven matches have come at home against the pathetic Titans and
the Bulldogs, who had just lost their coach on the eve of the match..
The Bunnies have all their key personnel on deck for this in Inglis,
Luke, Sandow, Sutton and Burgess and they showed last week with their
gutsy win over the Roosters that they’re far from done with in season
2011 and a top eight finish is well within their grasp. Both these sides
have shown vulnerability in defence this season and this has all the
hallmarks of a high scoring affair but I'm confident the Bunnies weight
of talent and experience will win through and they'll come away with a
confortable victory in front of their home fans. Pick – 4 units on
Rabbitohs to win (BEST BET)
NRL ROUND NINETEEN
Warriors -5.0 v Bulldogs
3 at 1.92
+2.76
The Warriors broke their losing streak in
style last week against the woeful Titans and face a Bulldogs side in
turmoil here, just one day after Kevin Moore quit as coach. Moore’s
resignation will have left the players in shock and trying to motivate
them for this match will take a huge effort from stand-in coach Jim
Dymock and I’m really not convinced they’ll be in the right head space
to confront a Warriors side that’s desperate to cement their spot in the
top eight. The Bookies have pretty much stuck with their opening odds
for this match, even after the departure of Moore, which is surprising
but good for us as I’m happy to back the home side to continue on with
their strong defensive effort from last week and limit the stuttering
Dogs offence, that’s missing Michael Ennis, to a low total. The forecast
for this match is for cold and wet conditions which the Sydney-siders
will not enjoy, but the Warriors will. Get on the home side to cover the
line. Pick – 3 units on Warriors -6.5 or better point start
Rabbitohs to beat Roosters
4 at 1.87
+3.48
The Rabbitohs looked set to pull off a huge
upset over the Sea Eagles last week but were swept away with ten minutes
to go, one thing they showed though was their ability to penetrate even
the toughest of defences and given the Roosters defensive inabilities
they’ll be confident of putting up a big total here. The Roosters
finally got a win last week over the Panthers and scored more than 13
points for the first time since round 4 but it’s the Bunnies who I’m
placing my faith in here with too much firepower across the park,
especially with Inglis in the form he’s in. I was expecting bigger
favouritism to the Bunnies for this match but am delighted the Bookies
have gifted us such a narrow line for them to cover – get on it. Pick –
4 units on Rabbitohs -2.5 or better point start
Panthers -2.5 v Eels
4 at 1.92
-4
The Eels, not for the first time in 2011,
pulled a really pick performance out of thin air and thrashed the Tigers
but as we’ve seen too often this season they have an inability to string
two such performances together in a row. The Panthers will be looking to
bounce back strong here following an upset loss to the Roosters and I’m
sure we’ll see a big match from their captain Civoniceva who will be
looking to make amends for a sloppy match last week. The Panthers look a
much more complete side to me with a dangerous halves pairing in Walsh
and Burns and a number of senior players that have all put their hand up
since Steve Georgallis took over as head coach. I’m not put off by last
weeks loss and like the Panthers to cover the narrow line. Pick – 4
units on Panthers -2.5 point start
Dragons -8.0 v Sharks
5 at 1.91
+4.55
By their own standards the Dragons
have been well off the pace of late but they’ve had a good excuse with
the major interruption through Origin, they’ll be well rested here
though following last weeks bye and will be back to their best. The
Dragons are without their captain and halfback Ben Hornby but have good
cover in Fien, whilst the Sharks have lost one of their form players in
Snowden. Short and sweet here, the Dragons will be way too clinical on
both attack and defence and will completely suffocate the Sharks who
will struggle to reach double digits. This is going to be all one-way
traffic and the line is nowhere near large enough – prompting the first
ever five unit best bet!! Pick – 5 units on Dragons -8.5 or better point start
(BEST BET)
NRL ROUND EIGHTEEN
Sharks -2.5 v Raiders
3 at 1.92
+2.76
The Sharks have been the form side of the past few
weeks and have a halves combination in Graham and Townsend who are
providing the much needed spark that's been missing from their attack,
whilst the forwards are muscling up and dominating their opposites. The
Raiders are fresh off just their second away win of the season but that
win was over a poor Roosters side and they'll find it much tougher here.
Short and sweet for this, the Sharks are welcoming back their
inspirational skipper Paul Gallen who will provide even more muscle up
front and they'll dominate the visitors. The line is too short from the
bookies and the high-flying Sharks will cover it. Pick - 3 units on
Sharks -2.5 point start
The Bulldogs were disappointing last week in losing to
the Panthers and their coach Kevin Moore will have been furious at the
lack of effort and execution from his side and he'll have put them
through a very tough week of training ahead of this match. The Dogs do
welcome back Ennis for this but on the flip side the Storm have Slater,
Smith and Cronk back, but whether they're at their best will remain to
be seen following the celebrations and euphoria around the Queensland
origin win mid week. I like the Dogs to bounce back here and at least
make a real match of this in front of their home fans, the bookies have
given them a decent enough point start which is worth getting on. Pick -
4 units on Bulldogs +5.5 or better point start
(BEST BET)
Roosters to beat Panthers
3 at 2.37
+4.11
As poor as the Roosters were last week they've got a
good shot at putting that behind them here given they're welcoming back
three origin players, plus Nuuausala from suspension, on top of all that
they're playing a Panthers side that's opted to rest both Lewis and
Civoniceva. The Panthers have certainly looked a transformed side since
Georgallis took over but they'll be faced with a desperate Roosters
outfit here who at the price the bookies have them at are to good to
overlook, especially given the return of four front liners and the
absence of the impact and experience of Lewis and Civoniceva in the
opposition. Pick - 3 units on Roosters to win
NRL ROUND SEVENTEEN
Eels -3.5 v Broncos
3 at 1.92
-3
The Eels were undone last week in Canberra
by a spirited Raiders side but they're back home for this match and
facing an understrength Broncos side due to origin III. The Eels have
slowly been building this season and their coach Stephen Kearney will
make sure they're well and truly up for this match and they should quite
easily come away with the win when you look at the gulf of experience
between the two sides. Robson and McGuire are forming a handy
partnership in the halves for the Eels and they'll be assisted here
through the front foot momentum their forward pack will achieve as the
likes of Smith, Moimoi, Hindmarsh and Allgood continue on the good form
they've shown. It's quite simple here, the Eels will be desperate to
capitalise on the good fortune of facing such an understrength Broncos
side and the forwards will flex their muscles against the much less
experienced Broncos pack, and Robson and McGuire will run the attack
with the same level of maturity they've shown in recent times. The line
for the Eels to cover is not large and they'll do it with relative ease.
Pick – 3 units on Eels -3.5 point start
Bulldogs -4.0 v Panthers
3 at 1.95
-3
The Panthers beat a rather morbid looking
Cowboys side last week but were led as usual by their two x-factor
players - Civonaciva and Lewis, both of whom are missing this week. The
Dogs on the other hand showed they're not done with in 2011 and put in a
turnaround performance in beating the Tigers and I'm confident we'll see
much the same here as they are largely unaffected by origin (just Ennis
out) and will continue on with the renewed attitude and energy they
showed last week. The Panthers will struggle offensively with their lack
of go-to players and will be easily contained by the Dogs defence,
whilst the likes of Barba, Idris and Keating are just a few of the Dogs
players capable of causing major headaches for the Panthers defence. The
Dogs are favourites here but the line is not big enough and they'll
cover it. Pick – 3 units on Bulldogs -4.5 or better point start
Rabbitohs -1.5 v Sharks
3 at 1.91
-3
The Sharks have had a great fortnight with
comprehensive wins over the struggling Roosters and Titans but their
opposition this week will also have a spring in their step following a
gutsy win over the Broncos and will be a much tougher test for them.
Without their inspirational skipper Paul Gallen the Sharks will lack
that key on-field leadership and the forwards won't have the same
intensity whilst the Bunnies still have a number of experienced players
in their pack that will lead by example and look to dominate the Sharks.
It's short and sweet here, even without Inglis and Taylor the Bunnies
will still have way too many impact players to call on in the likes of
Luke, Sandow, Sutton and Crocker and will have too much to offer on
attack for the Sharks to contain, whilst the Sharks offence will
struggle off the back of a lack of forward momentum. The Bunnies are
favourites but the line is not big enough. Pick – 3 units on Souths -4.5
or better point start
Dragons -2.0 v Knights
4 at 1.94
-4
The Dragons as always are hit hard
through origin absences but still have a number of game breakers capable
of leading the way here against a Knights side that is also without a
number of their frontline players, mainly through injury though. Fien
and Hornby have been named as the halves for the Dragons which means
that even in the absence of Soward they are still as dangerous as ever,
they also still have a forward pack that demands respect and I’m sure
we’ll see a huge game from the likes of Weyman, Hunt, Young and Prior as
the Dragons work towards regaining top spot on the ladder. I’m very
surprised as the narrow line here as was expecting the Dragons to be
much firmer favourites so am more than happy to recommend getting on the
home side to cover it with ease. Pick – 4 units on Dragons -2.0 point
start (BEST BET)
NRL ROUND SIXTEEN
Rabbitohs to beat Broncos
3 at 2.68
+5.04
The Bunnies will be hoping their comprehensive win over the Titans last
week sets the platform for the remainder of the season and I’m sure
we'll see a continuation of the confidence the Bunnies showed on attack
last week here with the likes of Sutton, Sandow and Luke making another
big contribution. There's a lot riding on the next few weeks for the
Bunnies as they make a last ditch effort to prove whether they're finals
contenders or pretenders for 2011 and with close to a full complement of
their impressive playing roster available they'll prove a handful for
the Broncos across the park and will come away with a hard fought win.
Get on the Bunnies at very good value! Pick – 3 units on Rabbitohs to
win
The Bulldogs are in the middle of a mid-season slump which led many to
question the club futures of both their coach and captain, this is not a
club that lies down and rolls over though and with the return of Ennis
and Idris this week, along with the soul-searching that has gone on
during the week I’m 100% backing them to bounce back strongly from that
weak defeat to the Sharks last Sunday. The Tigers are without their
talisman Benji Marshall for this clash and have a backline that’s short
on experience and will be found wanting against the likes of Idris,
Barba and Morris. The Dogs are desperate and their forward pack will at
least gain parity with the tough Tigers pack but as mentioned, the Dogs
will have way too much firepower out wide and I expect will come away
with a comfortable victory. Pick – 4 units on Bulldogs -2.5 or better point start
(BEST BET)
I can hear the sighs of readers as they shake their head
in dismay that I'm once again backing the Titans to come good for us,
despite the large number of units they've cost us this year, but yes
it's true, I am very confident (I know you've heard this before..) that
they will front up defensively and make the Sharks work hard for every
inch of territory, and I'm also willing to give Campbell and Prince
another week to show us their wares in the Halves as they did just two
weeks ago against the Dragons. The Sharks have shown this year that
they're a very capable side but they've lacked consistency and don't
have another big game in them this week like they put in last week in
beating an out of sorts Dogs side. The pride of this Titans franchise
has taken a huge hit this season but they've got way too much talent and
experience in their side to throw in the towel just yet and we'll not
only see a very big defensive effort here but also a huge game from
their key playmakers, of which there are plenty! Pick – 3 units on
Titans -2.5 or better point start
NRL ROUND FIFTEEN
Dragons to beat Broncos
3 at 2.00
-3
The Broncos have once again decided to rest
anumber of their origin stars for this clash, whilst the Dragons on the
other hand have named theirs and they'll prove the difference here as
master motivator Wayne Bennett gets his side focused for a big match
following their loss to the Titans last week. It's short and sweet for
this match, the Dragons are a very professional outfit and those players
backing up from Wednesday night will shake off any possible fatigue and
will be at their best which will mean big problems for both the Broncos
forward pack and backs as their is a gulf of class between the two sides
that have been named. Pick - 3 units on Dragons to win
Titans to beat Rabbitohs
3 at 2.25
-3
The Titans finally came through for us last
week and beat a depleted Dragons side but they'll need to lift the tempo
again here against a strong Rabbitohs side, but who are coming off the
Bye and I expect will be short of their best. Last weeks win will be a
huge injection of confidence for the Titans and I believe will be the
catalyst for somewhat of a mid-season revival, they certainly don't lack
talent within their squad and their coach Cartwright will be demanding a
repeat performance. The combination of Prince and Campbell in the halves
seemed to work a lot better for the Titans, with Zillman moving to
fullback and I'm confident we'll see further improvements here as their
kicking and running game keeps the Bunnies often questionable defence
guessing. I like the Titans to go two in a row here. Pick - 3 units on
Titans to win
Cowboys -4.5 v Warriors
4 at 1.92
+3.68
The Warriors face a tough few weeks
as they adjust to life without their captain and defensive powerhouse
Michael Luck and if their second half performance against the Tigers
last week was anything to go by, where they gave up a 24 - 6 lead, then
it's going to be happy hour for opposition attack. With two losses in a
row the Warriors confidence is low and this trip to Townsville, where
the Cowboys have looked unbeatable of late, is definitely not what they
need and Thurston will lead the route as he has in nearly every game the
Cowboys have played here. The line from the bookies is not enough for
the visiting Kiwi side and it'll be covered with ease. Pick - 4 units on
Cowboys -4.5 point start (BEST BET)
Tigers -2.5 v Storm
3 at 1.95
-3
The Tigers hit their straps in the second
half last week against the Warriors and looked as dangerous as ever in
running down a 24 - 6 deficit, with Benji in particular looking back to
his best and back at home this week against a Storm side that has a
number of players backing up from Wednesdays origin I'm confident
they'll come away with the win. The Tigers offence is largely influenced
by the level of dominance their forward pack are able to get over the
opposition and with Ellis, Farah and Galloway all looking in top form
they'll prove a real handful for the Storm which will give Marshall and
Lui the space and momentum to launch attacking raids from and I like
them to cover the narrow line on offer from the bookies and beat the
jaded Storm relatively comfortably. Pick - 3 units on Tigers -2.5 point
start
NRL ROUND FOURTEEN
Titans to beat Dragons
3 at 2.02
+3.06
As bad as the Titans have been in 2011 and
even though I vowed to stay away from them after yet another week of
costing us I simply cannot go past them here against a Dragons side that
is absolutely depleted due to origin footy. I refuse to believe that the
likes of Prince, Campbell and other senior Titans players will let the
rot continue here and pass up the perfect opportunity to get a win over
the competition front runners. The Titans coach Cartwright quit his
Blues assistant coaching role earlier in the week which clearly signals
he's not about to let his side's season continue on the path it's
started with. This is the match when the Titans will finally pay back
some of those units they've lost us! Pick - 3 units on Titans to win
Sea Eagles -14.0 v Cowboys
4 at 1.92
+3.68
The Cowboys have lost their talisman
for this match and are playing in Sydney, two major hurdles that they've
struggled to overcome in the past and will again struggle with here
against a red hot Manly side that is missing just two players through
origin in young Will Hopoati and Watmough, and who are coming off a
record win over the Bulldogs. The Cowboys are really going to struggle
without Thurston on attack as he has a hand in most of their tries and
we have seen with this side that they're vulnerable to giving up some
big numbers on defence once they get behind on the scoreboard and that's
what I expect will again happen here. The Sea Eagles are playing a very
consistent brand of footy led by Foran and Cherry-Evans and will win
this easily, covering the line on offer. Pick - 4 units on Sea Eagles
-14.5 or better point start (BEST BET)
Raiders to beat Broncos
3 at 1.93
-3
The Raiders gave up a 24 point lead last
week to the Cowboys, completely switching off in the second half as
Thurston lead a huge fightback, they won't have anyone of the skills of
Thurston in the opposition to contend with this week though as the
Broncos top players are on origin duties and have named a side that
won't send any major fears through the Raiders. The Raiders have had a
largely positive upturn in their season over the last month and their
coach David Furner will be demanding they capitalise on playing a
largely understrength Broncos side and move away from the bottom of the
points table. Pick - 3 units on Raiders to win
Roosters to beat Storm
3 at 2.15
-3
Whilst their win over the Warriors was not
always pretty the Roosters still showed vast improvement from previous
weeks and will go into this clash with some degree of confidence,
especially given they're up against a depleted Storm side who are
missing key players, most notably the spine of their side in Smith,
Cronk and Slater. The Roosters are without Myles, Minichiello and Pearce
for this but those players have much less of an influence over the side
than the Storms absent personnel do and the side that Brian Smith has
named is more than capable and are well worth backing at the good value
on offer. Pick - 3 units on Roosters to win
NRL ROUND THIRTEEN
Titans -2.0 v Panthers
3 at 1.94
-3
The Titans have been underwhelming this season and
will have used the bye to regroup and will be fired up here to break
their run of poor form with a performance in front of their home fans
that is worthy of the side they have on paper. The Panthers have been
good of late but I'm not convinced they have the consistency to put in a
third winning performance in a row here and the likes of Bird, Prince
and Zillman will test their defensive line all day. It's a full 80
minute effort the Titans have been lacking but I'm confident they'll
have addressed that over the last fortnight and will come away with a
season changing win here and restore some fortification to their home
ground of Skilled Park. Pick - 3 units on Titans -2.5 or better point start
Roosters to beat Warriors
4 at 2.15
+4.6
The Roosters did not lack enthusiasm but rather it
was their accuracy and execution that was amiss in their loss to the
Cowboys last week and I'm confident that following a week of tough
talking they'll deliver here against a Warriors side that's running hot
but have had that streak interrupted with a bye. For a losing side the
Roosters defence was quite exceptional last week and a repeat of that
here will see the Warriors struggling for points, whilst there's no way
the Roosters will repeat the number of unforced errors again this week
and once they hold on to the ball then their offensive power will be
reflected on the scoreboard. The Roosters offer very good value here as
the slight underdogs and I highly recommend getting on them. Pick - 4
units on Roosters to win (BEST BET)
Raiders -4.0 v Cowboys
3 at 1.91
-3
The Cowboys continue to be unstoppable at
home but it's on the road that they've really struggled and I can't see
that changing here as they face a Raiders side that has a spring in its
step and are finally playing the type of footy that we all expected from
them in 2011. The Raiders know they have a lot of ground to make up on
the points table and complacency will not be an issue in this match as
once again they'll up the pace of the game and use their big name
forward pack to gain the ascendency, which their slippery backline will
capitalise on. The Raiders are favourites but only narrowly and they'll
cover the line on offer from the bookies. Pick - 3 units on Raiders -4.0
point start
Rabbitohs +7.0 v Storm
3 at 1.92
-3
The Bunnies are a dangerous side to get on the hop
following a loss and they'll have identified a number of areas in their
loss to the Panthers that need improvement, most notably their defence
which will be a lot tougher this week. The Storm have the best
hooker/halfback/fullback combo in the competition in Smith, Cronk and
Slater but the Bunnies side is worthy of comparison in other positions,
particularly in the forwards and with Taylor in rampaging form and
looking to get an origin call up he'll again be very tough to handle.
The bookies have the Storm as favourites but the Bunnies will do enough
to at least get within the line on offer. Pick - 3 units on Rabbitohs
+7.0 point start
NRL ROUND TWELVE
Sea Eagles -5.5 v Broncos
3 at 1.92
+2.76
The Sea Eagles are well rested and ready to
launch into the remainder of the season following a decent break that
saw only Jason King get the rep call-up, the same can't be said for the
Broncos though who will be resting three of their big guns in Lockyer,
Thaiday and Hannant, whilst Parker and Yow Yeh will both be backing up
from Wednesday night. The Sea Eagles will continue with their clinical
approach here and the likes of Foran and Cherry-Evans will capitalise on
the disruption to the Broncos side and lead a dangerous offence. This is
a very tough time of the season for the Broncos and they'll be well off
their best here against a rampant Manly side. Pick - 3 units on Sea
Eagles -5.5 point start
Roosters to beat Cowboys
2 at 2.65
-2
Whilst it wasn't pretty and was closer than
I expected the Roosters still came away with the win last week over the
Knights and that win will be the spark for what is a very talented and
dangerous side who will build on that performance and really challenge
the Cowboys here. The Cowboys have been tough all season at home but one
can't help but feel that following Wednesday's origin their captain and
chief playmaker Thurston will be short of a gallop, and given his huge
influence on the side’s fortunes that could spell trouble. This is a
hugely important match for the Roosters and with the strengths they have
right across the park one can't help but anticipate they'll climb from
the depth of the table over the coming weeks and they offer good value
here for the upset. Pick - 2 units on Roosters to win
Panthers -4.0 v Rabbitohs
4 at 1.91
+3.64
The Rabbitohs looked short on
attacking options last week against a determined Warriors defence and
they’ll meet an equally difficult defensive line here as the Panthers
look to build on a positive fortnight that’s seen a top all round effort
from the entire side, they just fell short of getting their second win
in a row though last week when they were chased down by the Tigers. The
Panthers halves are in top form and their forwards, led by Waterhouse
and Lewis, are looking as good as any in the competition and will get
the upper hand over this Rabbitohs pack who are still punching below
their weight. The Panthers have been buoyed by the ‘Gus Guild factor’
and won’t be letting their guard down any time soon and we’ll see
another top effort here as the Bunnies are put to the sword. Pick - 4
units on Panthers -4.5 or better point start
(BEST BET)
NRL ROUND ELEVEN
Panthers +9.5 v Tigers
2 at 1.90
+1.8
The Panthers were devastating in their win over the Broncos last week in
what was Luke Lewis' first match back from injury and he showed once
again how his presence on the field really lifts this side, and I expect
another big game from them here against a Tigers side that is struggling
for consistency in 2011. The Panthers halves in Walsh and Burns will be
high on confidence off the back of their best performance of the season
and will ask plenty of questions of this Tigers defence, whilst the
likes of Lewis, Waterhouse and Kingston will lead the way once again in
the forwards and build on last week’s effort. The Panthers won't throw
away all of the good work from last week and will at least make this a
tight contest, which makes the generous point start on offer appealing.
Pick - 2 units on Panthers +8.5 or better point start
Roosters -0.5 v Knights
4 at 1.92
+3.68
The Roosters season has reached a critical point with just two wins to
their name but they have the perfect opportunity here to improve on that
against a Knights side that's short on experience and deflated following
their home loss to the Warriors last week, a match they looked like
winning up until the 70th minute. The Roosters only have the one origin
absence in Pierce but have ample cover in moving Carney to halfback, who
makes a formidable pairing with Anasta, and their coach Brian Smith will
be demanding they play with all the desperation their position on the
table warrants and I've no doubt with the side they have that we'll see
a big turnaround this week. The Knights will struggle to breach what
will be a very determined Roosters defence and the home side will lead
from the front in a dominant win. Pick - 4 units on Roosters -2.5 point
or better start (BEST BET)
Eels -6.5 v Sharks
4 at 1.97
+3.88
The Eels led most of the way against the Cowboys but switched off early
and will be looking for that extra 20 minutes of effort here against a
Sharks side fresh off a win over the Roosters but without their
inspirational captain Paul Gallan. It goes without saying that Hayne
will be smarting after his origin snub and I've no doubt he'll be at his
devastating best which does not bode well for the Sharks who will
already have their hands full trying to contain this improving Eels
forward pack. The start from the bookies is not large enough for the
Sharks as the Eels will get on board the Hayne-train and come away with
a big win. Pick - 4 units on Eels -6.5 point start
NRL ROUND TEN
Bulldogs to bt Dragons
1 at 2.78
-1
Bulldogs +6.5 v Dragons
2 at 1.85
+1.7
The Dragons continue to march on in 2011 and came away with another
clinical win over the Cowboys last week, whilst the Bulldogs had the
week off and will be fresh going into this. The Dragons are without two
of their key players this week in Gasnier and Fien, with other players
carrying niggling injuries, which presents the Dogs with a great chance
to upset the premiership favourites and with the strong side they've
named I'm more than happy to back the home side to at the very least get
within the point start on offer from the bookies, with a small wager on
the win also. Pick - 2 units on Bulldogs +5.5 or better point start and one unit
on Bulldogs to win
Panthers to beat Broncos
2 at 2.67
+3.34
The Panthers finally get Luke Lewis back from injury this week, whose
presence is never to be underestimated, and they'll be hoping he can
help ignite them against a side they traditionally do well against. The
Broncos tend to struggle around this time of year with rep committments
unsettling the side and with a large number of players back this week
I'm again not expecting the side to fire at 100% as their rhythm and
momentum was broken last week in losing to the Storm. The Panthers have
a dangerous side that has been underperforming but having had the week
off last week they go into this fresh and that break is just what the
doctor ordered and I expect them to come back a stronger side,
especially now that coach Matt Elliots future at the club has been
clarified. I like the Panthers to put in a big effort here on home soil
and challenge the Broncos all the way and come away with a gutsy win.
Pick - 2 units on Panthers to win
Rabbitohs +9.5 v Tigers
4 at 1.90
+3.6
The Rabbitohs last match was two weeks ago and saw them put in a second
half effort that totally blew the Sharks off the park with some
sintilating attacking play led by their very impressive halfback Chris
Sandow who will again be a handful for the Tigers this week. The Bunnies
do have a mounting injury toll but they are fortunate in having more
than ample cover and are still able to field a side that is more than
capable of coming away with the win here at very generous odds.
Containing Farah and Marshall will obviously be top priority for the
Bunnies defence but the Tigers will have their own challenge in
containing a number of the Bunnies own game breakers and I really do not
feel the Tigers strong favouritism from the bookies is justified, but
we'll happily accept the point start on offer and laugh all the way to
the bank. Pick - 4 units on Rabbitohs +8.5 or better point start
(BEST BET)
Titans to beat Sea Eagles
2 at 2.55
-2
The Titans were nothing short of pathetic in losing to the Warriors last
week and will have been absolutely blasted by their coach Cartwright
this week who will be demanding a huge turnaround in attitude, intensity
and accuracy here, their cause is helped by the return of co-captain
Luke Bailey though whose presence will lift the side. Teams often do not
get the chance of redemption in front of their home fans the very next
week following a shocker but that is exactly what the Titans have here
and there is absolutely no way this side will repeat that effort on
Skilled Park two weeks in a row. The Sea Eagles hardly raised a sweat in
thrashing the Raiders Monday night and will find the going much tougher
here against a very determined Titans defence, and more organised and
capable offence. Expect the senior Titans players in Prince, Bailey,
Minichiello and Campbell to lead the resurgence and inspire the rest of
the side to the upset victory here. Pick - 2 units on Titans to win
NRL ROUND NINE
Titans -4.5 v Warriors
4 at 1.95
-4
The Titans dug deep last week to get
their season back on track with a hard fought win over the Roosters and
they've got a great opportunity to build on that here at home against a
Warriors side that has five players potentially backing up from Fridays
test match. The Titans seem to have found an answer to their five-eight
woes with Zillman putting in a great showing last week and with a side
that's relatively free of rep footy burdons I expect them to get the
better of the Warriors and come away with a comfortable win. The
Warriors have been playing well of late but still look vulnerable to me
and the drain of Friday's match will take it's toll as the game goes on.
I am surprised at how close the bookies have this and the line for the
Titans to cover is small which they'll do with ease. Pick - 4 units on
Titans -4.5 point start (BEST BET)
NRL ROUND EIGHT
Titans -1.5 v Roosters
4 at 1.92
+3.68
Neither of these sides have had a
memorable start to the season and both go into this fresh off a loss but
it will be the Titans who will be hurting the most having blown their
match to the Eels in losing on the final whistle and one could see from
Scott Prince's post-match interview just how gutted he was and this now
turns into a season defining match for them. The Titans have a wealth of
experience within the squad who will have dealt with similar lows and I
expect those players to really step up here and pull the younger guys
such as Capewell, Tonga, Mead and Zillman along with them. The Roosters
fought hard against the Dragons but are still not playing anywhere close
to last years level and as long as the Titans really turn up to play,
which they most certainly will, then I can only see this going the way
of the home side in front of a vocal Skilled Park crowd. Pick - 4 units
on Titans -2.5 or better point start (BEST BET)
Storm -6.5 v Knights
3 at 1.92
+2.76
Storm coach Craig Bellamy will have flogged
his side this week at training and be demanding a huge effort here
following their below par effort against a determined Warriors side last
week which resulted in their first loss in Melbourne since early last
season. The Storm have been one of the best sides in the competition to
date and have a character and resilience about them that means they'll
certainly bounce back here, led all the way by the world class Slater,
Smith and Cronk. The Knights scored 20 unanswered points last week to
beat the Raiders but they'll have to fight a lot harder for every point
here and I'm not convinced they have the offensive firepower to compete
with the Storm this week. Pick - 3 units on Storm -7.5 or better point
start
Sea Eagles to beat Cowboys
3 at 2.04
-3
There is a lot to like about both these
sides thus far in 2011 but it's the Sea Eagles that have impressed the
most with a number of their younger players in the likes of Foran,
Hopoati and Cherry-Evans consistently turning up and putting in classy
all round efforts and they've been well supported by their more senior
players. The Cowboys are still heavily relying on Thurston for
playmaking and Des Hasler will have a plan for him, knowing his side
have the defensive capabilities to shut him down, and with that done
then the battle is half won and the Sea Eagles will chip away with the
many attacking options they have across the park. This will be the
toughest test the Cowboys have faced in Townsville so far this season
and I'm backing the visiting Sea Eagles to get the job done. The Bookies
have these two close to even money so there's value in taking the Manly
win. Pick - 3 units on Sea Eagles to win
Raiders to beat Tigers
4 at 1.87
-4
The Raiders have caused OTP much heartbreak
and frustration this season but have the chance to claw back some of our
respect and money here as they once again face a season defining match
(yes, similar to the Titans) and after switching off at halftime last
week when up 12-0 over trhe Knights they will play for every second
here. Both Tongue and Dugan will be much better off for last weeks run
and with Orford having had a few weeks to go away and work on his game I
expect a more commanding display from the nuggety halfback. The Tigers
are still hit with injury whilst the Raiders finally have close to their
best side and I expect the home side to really muscle -up in the
forwards and finally live up to expectations, whilst we'll no doubt see
an aerial assualt from McCrone and Orford anywhere near the Tigers line
as they capitalise on the strengths out wide in Vidot, Ferguson and
Dugan under the high ball. Have faith in them for one more week and take
the Raiders for the win, you won't be disappointed. Pick - 4 units on
Raiders to win
NRL ROUND SEVEN
Tigers to beat Broncos
3 at 1.77
-3
This match marks the 150th NRL appearance
for Tigers Hooker Robbie Farah and his side are well equipped to make it
a winning night for him as they welcome back McKinnon, Ryan, Fulton and
Galloway to the side that gave up a handy lead to the Titans last week,
a match they'd like to forget in a hurry. The Broncos defence has been
outstanding this year but this will be one of their biggest challenges,
up against an attack led by Marshall and Farah who will love nothing
more than to test themselves up against one of the better defences in
the competition. I'm confident we'll see a big effort all round from the
Tigers as they look to improve on their 3-3 season record; Tim Sheens
will be demanding improvement and on home turf and with so much to play
for the Tigers will be very very hard to stop. Pick - 3 units on Tigers
to win
Sharks -1.5 v Cowboys
3 at 1.90
-3
These two sides continue to be up and down
each week with the results of their matches coming down to whether
they're in the right mood for a big match or just going through the
motions. That said, the signs from the Sharks camp this week are
positive and the side is definitely geared up for a big match with their
captain Paul Gallen laying down the law to his team mates and I'm
expecting a similar effort here to what they put in back in round 2
where they hammered the Dragons off the back of a huge game from their
very capable forward pack. The Cowboys have yet to prove themselves in
Sydney this season and not even a dose of Thurston brilliance will get
them a win here over what will be a very fired up Sharks side who will
cover the slim point start on offer to the visitors. Pick - 3 units on
Sharks -3.5 or better point start
Rabbitohs to bt Bulldogs
2 at 2.60
-2
Even though they lost last week to the
Dragons the Rabbitohs were still impressive and if not for some moments
of defensive magic from their opposition the result could well have been
different and a similar effort here is on the cards. Souths have dropped
Wesser and brought in young livewire James Roberts to fullback and they
once again have the luxury of fielding all of their numerous x-factor
players in Inglis, Burgess, Luke and Crocker to name a few, and unlike
in round 2 where the Dogs got the better of them the Bunnies are now
more battle hardened and will offer much stiffer resistance. Short and
sweet here - the Bunnies will again lift their defensive effort and be
smarter on attack, having learnt lessons from last week, and once they
get the execution right then watch out Bulldogs!. 2 units on Rabbitohs
to win
Raiders -3.5 v Knights
4 at 1.91
-4
It seems to early in the season to be
talking about do-or-die matches but it really is the case for the
Raiders here as they're bottom of the table and must at the very least
start winning on their home turf if they're to be any chance of a top 8
spot further down the line. A positive for the Raiders is the way they
fought back against the Cowboys last week and whilst it wasn't quite
good enough at least they showed some bite on attack, with Sam Williams
and McCrone both growing in confidence as the match progressed and we
should see a continuation here. Man for man the Raiders are more than
capable of competing with the Knights and with the level of intensity I
expect the home side to bring, brought on by share desperation and
pride, the Knights are going to find this a very tough assignment. With
their season on the line I am very confident the Raiders will get the
win here in style. Pick - 4 units on Raiders -3.5 point start
(BEST BET)
NRL ROUND SIX
Titans to beat Tigers
4 at 2.09
+4.36
The Titans won't be at all impressed with their losing
efforts against the Cowboys last week and have a good opportunity here,
on home turf, to get a win over an injury hit Tigers side that defied
the odds in thrashing the Rabbitohs last week. The Titans welcome back
two big guns here in Bird and Harrison and have taken a bit of a gamble
in starting Zillman at Five-eighth but no doubt we'll see Bird running a
lot of the playmaking alongside Prince on attack. Despite their win last
week the Tigers are still looking a little susceptible in key positions
and are relying heavily on Marshall and Farah to run the attack so the
Titans game plan will obviously be based around shutting those two out
of the game and with Friend now with a game under his belt his high
tackle rate will lead the way in what I expect to be a fired up and
dominant Titans defence. Skilled Park has been a very difficult place
for visiting teams to win in previous seasons but not so much thus far
in 2011 and the Titans will be 100% committed here to restore the
'fortress' tag and come away with a good win - they certainly have the
firepower and motivation and I really like the value on offer from the
Bookies for them to get the job done. Pick - 4 units on Titans to win
(BEST BET)
Sea Eagles -6.0 v Warriors
3 at 1.92
+2.76
The Warriors lifted their tempo considerably last
week in their win over the Roosters and showed they do have a backbone
after all but it will take more than that to get them over the line here
against a Sea Eagles side that's finally at full strength with Matai and
Brett Stewart both named to start. The Warriors have always struggled at
Brookvale Oval and this will be no different as every error the visiting
kiwi side makes will be well and truly punished and with the high risk
style of the likes of Mateo there's bound to be numerous of those. Even
if the Warriors lift their game to another level here it would still not
be enough to compete with the Sea Eagles as the home side delight the
Brookvale faithful with a clinical and dominant effort all round, with
Stewart no doubt celebrating his return to the ground with a try or two.
This will be a big win to the Sea Eagles. Pick - 3 units on Sea Eagles
-7.5 or better points start
Raiders +5.5 v Cowboys
2 at 1.94
-2
The Raiders welcome back young halfback Sam Williams
for this clash with Orford ruled out through 'injury' and, not wanting
to place too much pressure on him, I believe his inclusion is just what
the doctor ordered for the struggling Raiders offence. The Raiders will
be viewing this game as a must win and with the form the Cowboys have
shown at home they'll be prepared for a very very tough battle and will
be relying on their more than capable forward pack to gain the
ascendancy needed for the backs to take control. It's short and sweet
here, the Cowboys have been brilliant in Townsville but I'm not
convinced they can keep consistently playing to that level and string
another big win together here. Last time Williams took the field was
round one where the Raiders hammered the Sharks, with the young
playmaker showing touches of class that has been lacking from Orford
since, I believe him and McCrone will again form a dominant partnership
in the Halves and provide the opportunities on attack that have been
missing. There is so much on the line here for the Raiders and I'm
positive we'll see nothing less than 100% commitment from each and every
player and they’ll at the very least make this a very close match! Pick
- 2 units on Raiders +5.5 point start
Knights -6.5 v Sharks
3 at 1.91
-3
This is the first match the Knights play at home
following the double-dose of great news the club has received with
Tinkler set to take over ownership which has paved the way for Wayne
Bennett to join as coach from next season and I expect both a very large
crowd and a very fired up home side. Gidley's move to five-eighth for
the Knights is a good one and his ball running abilities complement the
good kicking game of Mullen and I expect their halves pairing to cause
all sorts of trouble for the Sharks defence here off the back of another
strong effort from the big Knights forward pack. The Sharks have lost
their last two matches and are lacking any sort of consistency in their
play, the two wins they've had have come off the back of dominant
efforts from their forward pack but this Knights pack won't allow that
to happen and I just can't see the Sharks causing the Knights defensive
lines any major headaches here. This is not a great week to be playing
against the Knights in Newcastle as the positive vibe around the city
will transpire into a big win here. Pick - 3 units on Knights -6.5 point
start
NRL ROUND FIVE
Roosters -2.5 v Warriors
3 at 1.92
-3
The Warriors finally got a win on the board last
week in beating the Sharks but it was possibly the worst winning
performance I've seen, they were just very fortunate the Sharks played
even worse. The Roosters put in a classy performance in thrashing the
Tigers last week and should have no troubles in putting together back to
back wins here as they are a class above the Warriors in every aspect -
not least of which their halves of Pearce and Carney who will lead a
dominant offence against a fairly thin and toothless Warriors defence.
The performance of Mateo at five-eighth last week for the Warriors
pretty much sums the side up - deperate, unstructured and clueless
(harsh but true sorry) and the Roosters will brush them aside with ease.
Pick - 3 units on Roosters -3.5 or better point start
Panthers -1.0 v Raiders
2 at 1.90
+1.8
Both these sides are sitting on just the one win from
four games and both are under immence pressure here to come away with
the win. The Raiders had a tough loss to the Titans last week, conceding
a last second try then losing in extra time and I'm just not convinced
they'll be able to dust themselves off for this one as they're still
lacking the on-field leadership and inspiration that the injured Alan
Tongue usually provides. The Panthers put in a spirited performance
against the Broncoes but were undone by the near impenetrable second
half Broncos defence but will find the Raiders much thinner line more to
their liking and I expect the home side will have too much firepower for
the green-machine to handle, whilst the Raiders are themselves still
looking out of sorts offensively and they're not helped this match with
the loss of star fullback Josh Duggan once more to injury. The Panthers
will be absolutely determined to give their coach Matt Elliot every
chance of being retained and they know the only way that can be achieved
is through winning - starting here. The Panthers have lost Luke Lewis
for this match but still have the talent, and will not lack
determination, to get the win here. Pick - 2 units on Panthers -1.5 or
better
point start
Dragons -4.5 v Bulldogs
3 at 1.93
+2.79
The Dragons scraped through against the Knights last
week and will be determined to lift their game here against their fearce
Sydney rivals the Bulldogs who are coming off their first loss of the
season, going down to the Storm. The Bulldogs are going to struggle
offensively here against the very clinical Dragons defence whilst the
Dragons themselves will have a lot more offensive firepower at their
disposal, in particular their halves pairing of Soward and Hornby who
will both be looking to teach their less experienced opposing halves
here in Hodkinson and Keating a lesson. The Dogs looked very susceptable
against the pace and accuracy of the Storm offence last week and it's
going to be even tougher for them here as they become frustrated through
their lack of penetration on attack and the mounting error rate will
feed right into the classy Dragons hands as take their opportunities.
The bookies have the Dragons as favourites but the line for them to
cover is small and they'll pass it with a double digit win. Pick - 3
units on Dragons -5.5 or better point start (BEST BET)
NRL ROUND FOUR
Rabbitohs to bt Sea Eagles
3 at 2.25
+3.75
The Rabbitohs finally got a win under their belt
last week in a clinical effort over the Eels, whilst the Sea Eagles put
together back to back wins in beating the Knights, and they're boosted
here with the return of their captain Jamie Lyon. I've thought from the
outset of 2011 that this will be the Bunnies year with a top four finish
beckoning and after last weeks confidence boosting win I'm certain we'll
see them take further steps here as their star-studded line-up flexes
it's muscle. There were signs last week that Sandow and Sutton are close
to their dangerous best in the halves for the Bunnies whilst Inglis
brushed off his poor showing against the Bulldogs and returned to his
devastating top form against the Eels and I expect the Bunnies side to
again step up here as their numerous game breakers make their presence
strongly felt. The Sea Eagles defence will be under the pump all game
and will struggle to contain the Bunnies who will be on top of their
game and very hard to stop. Pick - 3 units on Rabbitohs to win
Titans +8.5 v Raiders
2 at 1.91
+1.82
The Titans will be scratching their heads as to why
they're 0-3 so far in 2011 as their stats suggest they're doing most
things right, however that counts for very little when they don't equate
to wins on the board. They will fancy their chances of breaking the duck
this week against a Raiders side that looks out of sorts offensively and
vulnerable on defence following their second loss in a row to the Tigers
last week, a match that could have looked much more ugly on the
scoreboard had it not been for the individual brilliance of Blake
Ferguson. The Raiders do welcome back Josh Dugan to fullback here who
will provide a much needed boost to the ailing offence but they are
going to be up against a very determined Titans side that has one of the
most dangerous halves pairing in the competition in Prince and Bird and
a tough forward pack led well by Luke Bailey. This one will go right
down to the wire and the point start on offer to the Titans is
appealing. Pick - 2 units on Titans +7.5 or better point start
Eels to beat Cowboys
2 at 1.75
+1.5
The Eels were always going to be up against it last week
facing a very determined Rabbitohs side and whilst they were on the
wrong side of the scoreboard it was an improvement on their ugly loss to
the Panthers the previous week and does give their coach Stephen Kearney
something to build on here. The Cowboys stunned the Storm in Townsville
Monday night with a huge win but they've shown over previous seasons
that it's these trips to Sydney where they really struggle and I'm
backing the Eels to lift in front of their home fans at Parramatta
Stadium and get back to winning ways. Karl Webb makes his debut for the
Eels this week against his old side and I'm sure will have a big impact
off the bench, whilst Joel Reddy returns from injury to partner Ryan
Morgan in the Centres. The Bookies have kept the odds for this pretty
close but I'm very confident we'll see a very big all round effort from
the Eels who will come away with the win. Pick - 2 units on Eels to win
Warriors -2.5 v Sharks
3 at 1.92
+2.76
This match sees two opposing teams facing very
different fortunes thus far in 2011 with the Sharks surprising all with
two wins in a row, whilst the Warriors continued their miserable form
with their third loss in a row, going down to the Dragons last week.
Ivan Cleary has finally lost his patience with some senior players and
has dropped Moon, Sinclair and Hohia, and after a week of very heavy
criticism from the New Zealand press and team crisis meetings held, all
players have been put on notice to lift their game and attitude. With
the wins the Sharks have had there is all of a sudden an air of
expectation on them and I've seen it time and again where such
expectation changes the mindset of players which can result in a drop in
intensity. Having followed the Warriors pre-season I know they have more
to offer than what we've seen in the first three rounds and I am sure
we'll see a huge turn-around from them here, the positional changes are
positive and the young guys coming into the side are capable and are
capable and will be keen to impress. This match is being played in Taupo
as a Sharks home game which will suit the Warriors who will enjoy the
majority of support from the crowd and with their season now approaching
full crisis, even at this early stage, I really like them to cover the
small line on offer from the Bookies as they go back to basics on attack
and lift the intensity all round. Pick - 3 units on Warriors -2.5 point
start
Roosters -6.0 v Tigers
4 at 1.92
+3.68
The Tigers win over the Raiders last week came at a
big cost with some key injuries that have left them looking a little
thin on the ground in terms of experience when matched up against this
Roosters side who are fresh off a frustrating loss to the Bulldogs. The
Roosters pack will definitely be backing themselves to get the upper
hand here and will lay the foundation for a dominant display from Carney
and Pearce in the Halves who will keep the relatively new look Tigers
back line guessing on defence and as the pressure mounts so to will the
score line to the Roosters. Short and sweet here - the Roosters were not
far off last week and will build on that performance here as they take
full advantage of an injury hit and much less experienced Tigers side.
As usual Marshall and Farah will lead the Tigers offence but they'll
struggle to penetrate with a lack of support around them and the
Roosters should comfortably handle all that's thrown their way. Pick - 4
units on Roosters -6.5 or better point start (BEST BET)
NRL ROUND THREE
Rabbitohs to beat Eels
2 at 1.95
+1.90
The Rabbitohs have let many people down so
far this season, none more so than me, but third times a charm and after
two lessons on how not to win the Bunnies have a great opportunity here
to get that elusive ‘W’ next to their name, against an Eels side that
lacked enthusiasm, direction and commitment in losing to the Panthers
last week. I expect both these sides to come out firing here but it’s
the Bunnies who are very close to a full 80 minute performance and this
week is it; I’m not going to go on like a broken record about the
strengths (hidden of late) of this Bunnies side, needless to say I’m
backing them to finally show us the full package of what they’ve got her
- Bunnies to win. Pick – 2 units on Rabbitohs to win
Titans to beat Broncos
2 at 2.14
-2
The Titans were handed a rugby league lesson last week
by the Storm, whilst the Broncos on the other hand produced a massive
defensive effort in beating the Raiders, the slate is wiped clean here
though in this local derby that tends to bring out the best in these
sides. Both these sides have been boosted by players returning from
injury – Hannant and Hodges for the Broncos and Laffranchi, Meyers and
Tonga for the Titans, who have also made a positional change in the
halves with Cartwright losing patience with the ineffective offence and
has moved Bird to five-eighth to partner Prince which is a very positive
move. I’ve no doubt we’ll see a very spirited effort from the Titans
here and with the personnel they’re getting back from injury, and the
key positional change for Bird, I’m liking them to get the win here.
Pick – 2 units on Titans to win
Roosters to beat Bulldogs
3 at 1.93
-3
This is not a great game for the unbeaten Bulldogs
to be facing the Roosters as their coach Brian Smith would have torn
them to shreds following their lacklustre effort last week in losing to
a severely understrength Sea Eagles and I have no doubt they will be
much better here against their fierce rivals. Carney for starters will
be much more influential this week with a game now under his belt and I
expect to see more of where him and Pearce left off last season where
they caused major headaches for the opposition defensive lines and they
should have ample support from the forwards who will also be looking for
redemption having been dominated last week. The Bulldogs have been
impressively solid in their opening two wins but will be outclassed and
out-muscled by what will be a very fired up Roosters side. Pick – 3
units on Roosters to win (BEST BET)
Tigers -4.0 v Raiders
2 at 1.91
Luxbet
+1.82
Whilst the Tigers were not at their best in beating the
Warriors last week there were still positive signs they’re heading in
the right direction and I’m sure we’ll see further improvement here
against a Raiders side that looked rudder-less on attack in scoring only
one try against the Broncos. There’s no doubt that the loss of their
captain Alan Tongue left a huge dent in the Raiders on-field leadership
and they’re going to continue to struggle in that department without him
particularly in these tougher away games. Raiders coach David Ferner has
resisted the urge to drop Orford, giving him another week to show his
worth, but I saw nothing in last weeks effort that even suggests he’s
still able to have an impact at this level and it may not be long before
we see Sam Williams back in the side partnering McCrone in the halves. I
like the Tigers to win this match fairly comfortably, they’ll have more
to offer on attack and won’t struggle too much in containing the Raiders
offence. Pick – 2 units on Tigers -5.5 or better point start
NRL ROUND TWO
Broncos +6.0 v Raiders
3 at 1.92
+2.76
The Raiders started season 2011 in style
last week with a comfortable win over the Sharks, they’ve lost captain
Alan Tongue for a few weeks through injury though, he joins Duggan on
the side-lines for this match against a Broncos side who will be
desperately seeking improvement following their round one loss to the
Cowboys. The Broncos have one of the most experienced halves pairing of
any side in the competition in Lockyer /Wallace who are up against the
brand new Raiders halves pairing of veteran Matt Orford, whose making
his debut here for the Raiders, and McCrone; and it’s in this area that
I fancy the Broncos will gain ascendancy. The Raiders came up against
some pretty soft Sharks defence last week but definitely won’t be gifted
any soft tries here against what I expect will be a trademark solid
Broncos line. This won’t be as one sided as most are predicting and I
like the Broncos to make a real contest of it, which makes the line on
offer from the bookies appealing. Pick – 3 units on Broncos +5.5 or
better point start
Tigers -6.0 v Warriors
3 at 1.92
+2.76
Both these sides were relatively rusty in
their opening round losses but it's the Tigers who I expect will bounce
back the stronger here as their flaws against the Bulldogs were more
superficial (poor kicking/handling) and can be easily fixed, whereas the
Warriors shortcomings against the Eels were more entrenched and it will
take more than a week of practice to iron out their issues. The Warriors
did look promising down the left flank on attack where Ropati crossed
the line twice but they were relatively ineffective up the middle and
should again be contained by what will be a more physical and alert
Tigers pack this week. The Tigers will play this game at a pace the
Warriors will struggle with, Farah will lead the way with plenty of
yardage from dummy half and once the visitors start back-pedalling then
Marshall and Lui will cause havoc to the Warriors defence in what will
no doubt be a much improved offensive performance all round from the
Tigers. The bookies have rightfully favoured the Tigers here, which I
certainly can't argue with, and I'm backing them to cover the line on
offer with relative ease. Pick – 3 units on Tigers -6.0 point start
Rabbitohs to beat Bulldogs
4 at 2.52
-4
The Rabbitohs showed us the best and
worst of what they have to offer in their loss to the Roosters last
week, they served up a smorgasbord of errors on both attack and defence
in the first half but clicked for a period in the last 40 minutes and
looked on their way to a miraculous comeback win, it wasn’t to be
though. The Bulldogs on the other hand put in a great 80 minute effort
and beat the Tigers off the back of a strong performance from their
forwards, which they’ll need to match or better here against what will
be a fired up bunnies pack who are without Burgess but welcome back
Michael Crocker whose presence should make a crucial difference. Nice
and brief here, I expect the Bunnies to more than compete with the Dogs
up front, backed up with a reduced error count on attack and a much more
resolute team defensive effort and the great value the bookies are
offering on them to win is way too good to pass up. Pick – 4 units on
Rabbitohs to win (BEST BET)
Sharks +14.5 v Dragons
2 at 1.90
+1.8
Nobody will be surprised by the huge
favouritism the bookies have given the Dragons here following the Sharks
thrashing at the hands of the Raiders last week, but I’m convinced they
are a much better side than that, they boast a very tough forward pack
who will offer up a real challenge to this Dragons pack, which will
hopefully ease some of the pressure on the Sharks halves of Graham and
Kelly. The Sharks let in some soft tries against the Raiders, struggling
to defuse a number of attacking kicks and their coach Shane Flannagan
will be demanding a lot more accountability on defence from his players
this week against the best in the business. The Sharks side definitely
have a better look to them this year (on paper) and will be out to prove
in front of their home fans at Shark Park that they’re not the ‘beat-up’
boys of recent seasons and I expect they’ll fire up and get within the
very generous point start on offer from the bookies. Pick – 2 units on
Sharks +14.5 point start
NRL ROUND ONE
Rabbitohs to bt Roosters
3 at 2.11
-3
2011 has to be the year that this Bunnies side live up to their billing
as they yet again boast one of the best forward packs in the competition
(on paper) and with star recruit Greg Inglis ready to lend a hand to the
cause I am confident that we’ll see a vast improvement right from the
outset – starting here with a win over the Roosters who are without
their Daly M winner Todd Carney for this clash. The Bunnies will have
the measure of the Roosters up front and off the back of that ascendancy
I expect the matured Bunnies halves pairing of Sandow and Sutton to
orchestrate the offence to good effect. The Bookies have installed the
Roosters as favourites to win this match which is good for us with the
Bunnies offering good value to steal the win. Pick – 3 units on
Rabbitohs to win (BEST BET)
Eels +7.5 v Warriors
2 at 2.00
+2
These two sides met in a pre-season match only a few weeks ago with the
Warriors romping to a big win, new Eels coach Stephen Kearney will have
learnt a lot from that match though and been working his players hard on
ironing out those kinks that undid them that day. The key to competing
with the Warriors is to put as much pressure on their offensive line as
possible through in your face, committed defence – which is certainly an
attribute Kearney installs as coach, and we’ve seen time and again the
Warriors error count and frustration levels rise when such tactics are
effectively applied. The battle of the forward packs should be fairly
even here, if there is a slight question mark over the Eels it is in
their halves pairing of Robson and Mortimer and whether or not they’ll
be able to cause any real concerns for this Warriors defence, that said
though when you’ve got a player with the freakish abilities of Hayne in
the side it does take a lot of the play making pressure off the halves.
The bookies have got the Warriors as favourites but I’m not convinced
the game will be as one sided as the line suggests as I expect the Eels
to compete all the way in a tight and relatively low scoring match. Pick
– 2 units on Eels +7.5 point start
Sea Eagles +5.0 v Storm
2 at 1.91
-2
The Storm finally get to play for competition points here following last
years forgettable events and it’s fitting the occasion should be marked
against their fierce rivals of recent years – the Sea Eagles. There are
a number of mouth-watering match-ups in this clash, most notably the
battle between the two fullbacks Slater and Stewart. Both these sides
have their fair share of real danger players but, on paper at least, I’d
single out the Sea Eagles as being the stronger of the two as they boast
a very physical and mobile forward pack and a backline that includes two
world class playmakers in Lyon and Stewart. Given they have the home
advantage the bookies have installed the Storm as favourites but if
indeed they do win it will only be by the narrowest of margins and I’m
liking the point start on offer to the visiting Sea Eagles. Pick – 2
units on Sea Eagles +5.0 point start
2010 SEASON
NRL GRAND FINAL
Dragons -3.5 v Roosters
2 at 1.92
+1.84
This shapes up to be one of the better
Grand Finals we've had for a good number of years, with two very even
teams that each bring their own unique style to the field. The Bookies
have sided with the Dragons, pricing them at around $1.65 at time of
writing, but they'll have done so without any real conviction as it was
the Roosters who were the more impressive last week in demolishing the
Titans, whilst the Dragons just got home by a point against the Tigers.
I'm backing the consistent, well-oiled Dragons machine to win here, they
have plenty of improvement in them following last weeks game whilst the
Roosters I feel played their Grand Final last week and won't back up
that effort here. The Dragons will have the edge in the forwards and it
will be here they'll pave the way to victory as this is not going to be
a try-fest but rather a tough armwrestle - the type of game the Dragons
have made a habit of winning all season. Wayne Bennett knows exactly
what it takes to lift a team to Grand Final success, having done so on
six previous occasions, and I'm convinced he's about to add to that
total here. Pick - 2 units on Dragons -3.5 point start.
NRL FINALS WEEK THREE
Titans to bt Roosters
2 at 1.80
-2
The Titans get the nod here for mine, edging the Roosters with a greater
mix of experience along with talent in key positions which I expect will
get them home in front of a very large local crowd. The match-up in the
Halves is mouthwatering with the old hands of Prince and Rogers in
superb form for the Titans whilst the young guns in Carney and Pearce
have been red hot for the Roosters, it will be in their stronger forward
pack and bench that the Titans will lay the foundation for this win
though. The Titans finally have a crack at making the Grand Final and
this opportunity to get there is one they won't pass up. Pick - 2 units
on Titans to win
Dragons -6.5 v Tigers
3 at 1.92
-3
Off the back of plenty of Benji Marshall magic the Tigers very narrowly
defeated the Raiders last week but this encounter will be a totally
different affair and not even a repeat dose of Marshall brilliance will
get the Tigers home. This Dragons side are totally uncompromising on
defence, as they showed in their last match in keeping the Sea Eagles
scoreless, and it will take more than the Tigers two trick pony of
Marshall and Farah to generate enough points to stay abreast with the
mighty Dragons offense. It's short and sweet here, the Tigers got past a
disappointing Raiders side last week but won't have any answers to
combat this finely tuned Dragons side who I believe are on their way to
winning the premiership. The Bookies have given the Tigers a decent
point start but it is not large enough. Pick - 3 units on Dragons -6.5
point start (BEST BET)
NRL FINALS WEEK TWO
Raiders -6.0 v Tigers
2 at 1.94
-2
This match has worked out very well for the
Raiders, not only do they get the home ground advantage but they're also
up against an understrength Tigers side hit with injuries and severely
dented confidence following their dramatic loss to the Roosters last
week. The Raiders have a full complement of players available here with
Tongue back in the side starting off the bench and buoyed on by a huge
sell-out crowd they'll be too strong for the visiting Tigers with an
attack that's playing with confidence and defence that's continued to
improve all season. Benji Marshall's fitness will be well and truly
tested here as the Raiders will look to aim a lot of their attack at him
and I'll be surprised if he lasts the full distance. It's going to be a
long day for the Tigers as the Raiders continue on their winning ways
and win comfortably. Pick - 2 units on Raiders -6.0 point start
Roosters -4.5 v Panthers
2 at 1.90
+1.8
The Roosters pulled off a very unlikely win
last week having been dominated for most of the game by the Tigers but
showed plenty of heart on defence, repelling wave after wave of attack.
The Panthers welcome back their captain Civoniceva for this clash but
have two of their better forwards on the sidelines in Waterhouse and
Pritchard, which leaves them looking a little short on experience
against a well-travelled Roosters pack. The Roosters go into this with a
good dose of confidence whilst the Panthers looked shaky leading into
the finals and were off the pace again last week in their loss to the
Raiders. The Bookies have rightfully installed the full-strength
Roosters as favourites for this clash and I expect they'll win
comfortably with more to offer on attack and a point to prove in the
forwards. Pick - 2 units on Roosters -4.5 point start
NRL FINALS WEEK ONE
Titans -4.0 v Warriors
3 at 1.95
+2.85
The Titans get their full quota of players back this week with
pocket-rocket Preston Campbell having recovered from injury to slot in
at fullback, which sees Zillman move to the wing; whilst the Warriors
have named an unchanged side to that which comprehensively beat the
disgraceful Eels last week. The last time these two sides met was in
Auckland back in round 21 where the Titans beat the home side 28-20 and
I expect a similar result here. This is the strongest opposition the
Warriors have faced for some time as they're thrown into the cauldron of
a packed Skilled Park against one of the best offences in the
competition which they'll struggle to defend against. Campbell adds
another dimension to the Titans attack with his sniping runs from
Dummy-Half and brilliant counterattack which will no doubt cause
headaches for this Warriors side. The soft nature of the Warriors recent
games has not been an ideal lead-up for a clash of this nature and
they're going to find the going too tough against a Titans side who're
going to make the very most of this home ground finals advantage. The
Titans are favourites but the line for them to cover is not large and
they'll do it with ease. Pick - 3 units on Titans -4.5 or better point start
(BEST BET)
Roosters to bt Tigers
2 at 1.95
+1.9
This match-up sees the two best five-eighths in the competition -
Marshall and Carney - squaring off against each other and fresh from his
Daily M glory it should be Carney who gets the upper hand here with
better support around him in the forwards and more talent to work with
in the backs. The Tigers will as always rely heavily on Farah and
Marshall for their attack but Brian Smith will have his side primed to
shut down the deadly duo, whilst the Roosters have a wealth of players
with plenty of finals experience who will lead the way for them. This
will be a victory to the Roosters but the margin won't be large. Pick -
2 units on Roosters to win
Dragons -16.0 v Sea Eagles
3 at 1.90
+2.7
The Dragons have been installed as huge favourites for this clash
following the decimation of the Sea Eagles side through injury and
suspension, with Matai and King the latest to join the crowds on the
sidelines. The heavy favouritism is every bit justified as the Dragons
are at full strength and in fantastic form leading into the finals. This
is going to be a massacre as the relatively inexperienced Manly halves
duo of Foran and Hodkinson will struggle to create opportunities against
what will be a watertight Dragons defense; whilst the Dragons clinical
attack will wear down the Sea Eagles and the points will start to mount.
The Dragons have a big point to prove in shaking off the 'chokers' tag
when it comes to finals footy and will start by making a big statement
here. Pick - 3 units on Dragons -16.0 point start
NRL ROUND TWENTY-SIX
Titans -4.0 v Tigers
2 at 1.92
-2
The Titans five game winning streak came to
an abrupt end last week when they were thrashed by the Sharks with the
loss being a timely reminder for them and I'm sure they'll use it as a
wake up call leading into the finals, they do welcome Laffranchi back to
the side this week which will aid their cause against a Tigers side hign
on confidence but with a few injury concerns. The Titans risk this being
their last match of the season at Skilled Park if they lose but a win
would ensure them home advantage for at least one more match - so the
stakes are high. The Tigers win over the Storm took a toll on the side
and they'll struggle to match up with the Titans here. The Bookies have
the home side as favourites but the line is not large and they'll cover
it. Pick - 2 units on Titans -5.5 poiint start
Eels to bt Warriors
3 at 1.91
-3
It's been a disgraceful end to the
season from the Eels and the lack of intensity in them last week in
losing to the Rabbitohs was hard to stomach but with this now officially
being their last game of the season they at least have a chance to end
it on somewhat of a high and send their long serving captain Nathan
Cayless out with a bang. The Eels have named close to their strongest
available side for this match - most of whom featured in last years
Grand Final - and I'm sure they will shelve their little pre-teen
attitude problems for just one match and send Cayless, and others, off
in style with a good win over a Warriors side who we all know tend to
struggle more often than not playing away from New Zealand. Credit must
be given to the Warriors for the excellent performance last week in
thrashing a very very poor Broncos side and cementing their spot in the
final eight, however, with nothing to lose and a big crowd behind them
we're going to see the Eels chance their hand at everything here which
spells big trouble for the Warriors as there are few sides more
devastating on their day than the Eels.....and this will be their day.
The Bookies can't split these sides which is good for us as the Eels
offer very good value. Pick - 3 units on Eels to win
(BEST BET)
Sharks +9.5 v Panthers
3 at 1.92
-3
Whilst they are languishing down the bottom
of the table the Sharks are still a very dangerous side as they proved
last week in dismantling the Titan. Since Shane Flanagan has taken over
as coach of the Sharks he's installed a freshness throughout the side
that's definitely showing on the field with extra enthusiasm and
direction. The Panthers are without thier captain Petero Civonciva
(suspencded) and Halfback Luke Walsh (injured) here - two big blows, and
up against a born again Sharks side who are out to farewell Luke Covell
and Trent Barrett in style. The Bookies have given the Sharks a decent
point start which we'll happily accept. Pick - 3 units on Sharks +9.5
point start
NRL ROUND TWENTY-FIVE
Eels -5.0 v Rabbitohs
2 at 1.92
-2
With their seasons at stake and everything
to play for both these sides put in a couple of D-Grade performances
last week and all but eliminated themselves from the race for a top
eight finish in 2010. The Bunnies loss to the Panthers was particularly
toothless given the huge margin whilst the Eels came close to the Tigers
but never really lifted the intensity to where it needed to be – the
question this week though is which of these sides will still have that
fairytale belief that the oh-so faint glimmer of hope they have of
making the finals is worth putting everything on the line for…my money
is on the Eels as they have the leadership and quality through the side
to demand they at least die trying in 2010. This is the penultimate game
in the marathon career of Nathan Cayless and his side will rally for
their long-time leader. Mortimer has been brought back in to five-eighth
for the Eels and I’m sure we’ll see something special from him as he’s
given this chance to impress, the key though for the Eels is their
execution as they have the game breakers in Mateo, Moimoi, Hayne and co
to worry any defensive line but their error rate is hurting them. The
Bunnies miss Sutton in the Halves, with Sandow and Capewell struggling
for cohesion, and this has affected the sides general attack, the Eels
however have options galore and will certainly not struggle for points
against what’s been a paper thin Bunnies defensive line of late. Pick –
2 units on Eels -5.0 point start
Sharks +8.5 v Titans
3 at 1.80
+2.4
The Titans continued their run of
impressive form with an upset win over the Roosters last week but face a
different build up to this clash as they are hot favourites and up
against a Sharks side playing their final home game of 2010, as well as
this being Trent Barrett’s final game at Shark Park of his career. The
Titans are also down on personnel with Laffranchi and Campbell both out
injured for this clash. We saw two weeks ago in their win over the
Roosters that this Sharks side are capable of good things on their day
and with Shane Flanagan having had a good few weeks as head coach he’ll
have his side charging for a positive end to the season. The Bookies
have given the Sharks a decent point start which offers good value
against a Titans side that will be punished if they underestimate this
Sharks side in the slightest, this has boil-over potential but we’ll
play it safe. Pick – 3 units on Sharks +8.5 point start
(BEST BET)
Storm to bt Tigers
2 at 2.70
-2
The Storm have endured a season that
nightmares are made of and they certainly won’t be upset that they’ve
just two games remaining, what will get the emotions running high though
is the fact so many members of this team of champions are going their
separate ways very shortly and I will be very surprised if they don’t go
out with their heads held high in victory. This is a great match for the
Storm to make a statement and remind us all that whilst they’ve been
stripped of all points they’re still one of the better (if not best)
sides in the competition and what better way to do this than against the
high flying Tigers who’re currently third on the points table. The Storm
have close to their best available side taking the field in this match
and will be have it over the Tigers with talent to burn in nearly every
position. It’s a measure of the weakness of this years competition that
a side like the Tigers are sitting two points away from the top of the
table and this week could be a rude awakening for them. The Bookies have
the Storm at good value and we’ll have a piece of it.
Pick – 2 units on Storm to win
NRL ROUND TWENTY-FOUR
Panthers -5.5 v Rabbitohs
2 at 1.92
+1.84
The Panthers have a good opportunity to halt their losing streak here up
against a severely depleted Rabbitohs side whose hopes of making the
finals are all but over following their two point loss to the Storm last
week. The last time these two sides met was in round 12 where the
Bunnies destroyed the Panthers 42-22, which the Panthers players will
not have forgotten, they too have a few injuries of their own though but
are still much better off than the Bunnies. It’s short and sweet here,
the Panthers will have too much muscle in the forwards for the Bunnies
and have better playmaking options on attack with Walsh and Burns in the
Halves likely to feast off the forwards dominance and Luke Lewis will
step in to create headaches when he can. The Bookies have the Panthers
as favourites but the line is not large and they’ll cover it easily as
they deliver the final knockout blow to the Bunnies season. Pick – 2
units on Panthers -5.5 point start
Sea Eagles -5.5 v Warriors
4 at 1.92
-4
The Sea Eagles will be very fired up for this match and in front of
their loyal fans on their beloved Brookvale Oval they are going to
outplay the Warriors in every facet of the game as they make a last
impassioned push for a top four finish. The Warriors had a fairly soft
win over the Knights last week whilst the Sea Eagles had a tough loss to
the Dragons, I’m really not buying too much into the Warriors win though
as they did not set the world on fire and proved once again how much
they rely on Manu Vatuvai for points. It goes without saying that the
Sea Eagles will look to shut down the big Warriors winger and where
others have failed I am confident the Sea Eagles will triumph with Des
Hasler having no doubt worked hard on a watertight plan for his side to
shut Mr Vatuvai down. We’re about to see just how good the Sea Eagles
are, they will play this game at a pace the Warriors just can’t keep up
with and chew up some big yardage as a result whilst their defence will
be back to its trademark best. This is going to be a very long night for
the visiting Warriors.
Pick – 4 units on Sea Eagles -5.5 point start (BEST BET)
Eels -2.5 v Tigers
3 at 2.00
-3
The Eels stormed back onto the radar last week with an encouraging win
over the Broncos in Brisbane and will have restored some lost confidence
following a couple of losses over the previous weeks; the Tigers also go
into this off a good win following a fantastic final 10 minutes against
the Panthers which inflated the winning margin significantly. The Eels
have put some of their off-field dramas around coach Daniel Anderson to
rest this week and I’m confident we’ll see that touch of class again
here that we know they’re capable of, especially with the top eight just
within their reach – nothing short of a solid win will be acceptable and
that’s exactly what they’ll get. Dropping Mortimer proved a good move
for the Eels last week with Robson and Keating providing some good spark
together in the Halves and on top of this Mateo has hit a purple patch
of form, rivalling Hayne in terms of devastation on attack and I expect
a repeat performance here on their home turf. The Tigers will struggle
with the Eels intensity here on both attack and defence and will run
short of ideas as the score mounts.
Pick – 3 units on Eels -2.5 point start
NRL ROUND TWENTY-THREE
Roosters 13+ v Sharks
2 at 2.45
-2
The last time these two sides met was in
round 13 at this same ground with the Sharks destroying the Roosters
42-18, a definite low point for the Roosters season to date, these two
sides have gone in opposite directions since then though. The Sharks
have copped a lot of criticism following their thrashing at the hands of
the Warriors last week and have promised a bigger effort here but I’m
not at all convinced they’ve got it in them to mix it with the class and
determination of the Roosters who have so much more to lose in this
match than the Sharks not to mention wanting to erase the round 13
effort from their memories. The loss to the Dragons last week will be
nothing more than a speed bump for the Roosters as they cement a top
four finish for 2010. Carney is the best player in the competition at
present and he’ll be too much to handle for the Sharks, he’ll lead the
rout and the rest of the side will join him! Pick –2 units on Roosters
13+
Titans -14.0 v Cowboys
3 at 1.92
+2.76
The Cowboys gelled last week after
Thurston went off injured but it still wasn’t enough to get a win over
the Broncos in Townsville, their opposition here though are after their
fourth win in a row with their latest victory being a 34-12 thrashing of
the Eels. Greg Birds return to the Titans line-up this week is a huge
boost just out from the Finals and adds another weapon to their already
very formidable offence who will be in the mood once again this week to
pile on the points and exact some revenge on their round 4 loss to the
Cowboys. It’s a one-sided ledger in the class department here with the
Titans holding all the aces….the Bookies have given the Cowboys a
generous point start but it will be covered easily by the home side as
they look to boost their point differential. Pick – 3 units on Titans
-14.5 or better point start (BEST BET)
Storm -6.5 v Rabbitohs
3 at 1.91
-3
The Storm looked like they had waved the
white flag on their season last week in being thrashed by the Sea Eagles
but with just a handful of matches left together as a team they will
want to go out on a high as well as reward the Melbourne faithful for
their unwavering support during tough times. The Bunnies continue to
take hits on the casualty front with five-eight John Sutton joining the
list of sidelined stars for this clash, they do welcome back Crocker and
Burgass to the forwards and Champion and Best to the Centres though but
in order to win here one feels they would need to have their full
complement of stars take the field. Sutton is a crucial link to the
Bunnies offence and they’ll struggle for flow without him which is not
good news as they’ll be facing a fired up Storm defensive line following
the 26 points they conceded last week to the Sea Eagles. The Bunnies
have never won in Melbourne and they are not about to start here against
a very classy Storm side that won’t be lacking in motivation this week.
The line is not large from the Bookies and the Storm will cover it. Pick
– 3 units on Storm -6.5 point start
NRL ROUND TWENTY-TWO
Cowboys +6.5 v Broncos
2 at 1.93
-2
The Cowboys showed plenty of fight last week in narrowly losing to the
Panthers and they’ll need to show up with a similar attitude for this
local derby following six losses in a row to their big brother Broncos,
the home advantage does work in their favour though and with Thurston at
close to top form they can certainly cause the upset here. The Broncos
have a tough five day turnaround following their hard fought win over
the Dragons and whilst they deserve their favouritism here the point
start to the home side is hard to go past with the Cowboys forwards
close to the top of their game, and that old combo of Bowen and Thurston
causing trouble on attack with some quality players to back them up.
This will be another bruising encounter for both sides with not many
points in it either way, desperation will win the day and I’m sure both
sides will have an equal measure of it as they jostle for bragging
rights.
Pick – 2 units on Cowboys +6.5 point start
Titans to bt Eels
3 at 1.83
+2.49
Just when the Eels were looking to repeat last years long streak of wins
leading to the finals they go and get trampled by the Roosters, looking
flat and unenthused for most of the match with Hayne being one of the
main culprits. With their streak coming to such an inglorious end I
can’t see the Eels dusting themselves off and coming back strong one
more time to make the finals, they were reliant on the momentum that was
built up and without it they are not a top-eight side having proven that
for most of 2010 (pre-streak). The Titans go into this with some
momentum of their own having beaten the Warriors in Auckland, which now
gives them one last shot at a top four finish for 2010 which is within
reach but will require some very hard work in the remaining five
matches, starting here. The Bookies are not totally sure whether the
Eels will bounce back or not, but I am, they are not going to compete
with the enthusiasm, skill, pace and agility of the Titans forward pack,
and off the back of this the halves combo of Prince and Rogers will
weave their magic. Hayne will not have the range of freedom he’s enjoyed
of late following his very poor positional play against the Roosters
which cost his side dearly, and will need to play a more structured
fullback role or else be punished again through the kicking game of
Prince. The Titans are not about to undo all that good work from
Auckland last week, they’re rebuilding their fortress game by game in
readiness for finals footy! Pick – 3 units on Titans to win
Rabbitohs to bt Tigers
2 at 2.50
+3
The Rabbitohs have been hit hard with injuries to top players and now
they’re having to take the field without suspended star forward Luke
Burgess, they have some good depth to draw on in the forwards though and
with the season now well and truly on the line I think we’ll see a
performance befitting a proud club fighting for survival in 2010. Isaac
Luke will be key to this match and with a game under his belt following
his return from injury he’ll play with more confidence and his
combination with Sandow will be a real handful for a Tigers defence that
has been far from convincing, chuck Sutton in the mix with some of his
trademark line breaks and this match has upset written all over it.
Expect to see a very physical approach to this game from the Bunnies as
they give their 2010 finals campaign one last push. Pick – 2 units on
Rabbitohs to win
Dragons to bt Roosters
3 at 1.92
+2.7
The Dragons side set to take the field in this match is the strongest
they’ve had for a number of weeks and have a very menacing look to them,
particularly in the forwards and with the old combo of Gasnier and
Cooper in the Centres I’m sure we’ll see something special and receive a
timely reminder of the Dragons premiership credentials following a rough
month of results. The Roosters were brilliant last week in destroying
the Eels but will find this match a much tougher prospect as they face a
much more complete Dragons side who have the weight of experience on
their side and will be wanting to celebrate Wayne Bennett’s 600th NRL
game as coach in style with a big win for the great man. Carney and
Pierce will come under more pressure in this match than they’ve had all
season and they won’t have the luxury of being behind a dominant forward
pack, as has been the case of late. This is going to be a rather
comfortable Dragons win. Pick – 3 units on Dragons to win
(BEST BET)
Raiders to bt Panthers
2 at 2.00
+2
There’s no excuses for the Raiders here, they’ve got close to their best
side on hand, home ground advantage and their captain Alan Tongue back
from injury, not to mention the fact they’ve got some questions to
answer following a very average performance in being thrashed by the
Strom last week. We’ve seen it a number of times this year that when the
Raiders are on they are ON and without the ability to gaze into a
crystal ball one must look for other signs as to whether they’ll be at
their best here...and the signs are good. The Panthers are not as strong
as their 2nd placing on the table suggests and were very nearly beaten
at home last week against the Cowboys, this match will be much tougher
for them but the Bookies still have them as favourites which is good for
us as we’ll climb on the good value on offer for the Raiders.
Pick – 2 units on Raiders to win
NRL ROUND TWENTY-ONE
Bulldogs to bt Rabbitohs
2 at 2.38
+2.76
The last time these two sides met was back
in round four where the Rabbitohs handed the Dogs a good old fashioned
hiding, running out winners 38-16, I expect the Dogs to exact some
revenge here though. The Bunnies go into this fresh off a stuttering win
over the Warriors whilst the Dogs lost to the rampaging Eel’s but I
consider of these two sides it’s the Dogs who are better prepared going
into this match when you consider both teams opposition last week. The
Bunnies are without three of their leading forwards in Taylor, Crocker
and Stuart but do welcome back their star Hooker Isaac Luke whilst the
Dogs have named their strongest side which has a formidable look to it
in both experience and talent. It’s not in the nature of this Bulldogs
club to end the season with a whimper and they won’t appreciate being
dubbed underdogs on their home ground against a side they’ve made their
bunnies (sorry about that..) in recent history. I believe the
experience, determination and aggression of the Dogs will win the
day….the Bookies have them at a generous price which is fine by us. Pick
– 2 units on Bulldogs to win
Cowboys +12.0 v Panthers
2 at 1.92
+1.84
I saw enough fight in the Cowboys in their
last round win over the Knights to suggest they’re going to be a handful
in these remaining rounds and with the forward pack they boast, along
with the devastating playmaking of Thurston, then don’t be surprised if
they ruin a few other sides dreams of making the top eight. The Panthers
have lost their last three games, two of which were at this ground, and
whilst they do welcome back Luke Lewis for this match I’m not convinced
their attack is potent enough currently to justify the large point start
the Bookies have given the Cowboys here. Pick – 2 units on Cowboys +11.5
or better
point start
Tigers -10.5 v Sharks
3 at 1.94
-3
This is a good match for the Tigers
to get at this time of year as they look to further fine-tune their
attack, particularly the halves combination of Marshall and Lui, and
following last weeks heavy loss to the Sea Eagles Tim Sheens will be
demanding they keep one of the worst offensive sides in the competition,
the Sharks, to single digits. The Sharks were fortunate to catch the
Raiders on an off day last week which limited the margin of their loss
but it will be a lot tougher here as the Tigers have their full
complement of forwards available and once they start to dominate then
the class of Marshall and Farah will cause havoc for the thin Sharks
defensive line. The point start to the Sharks is quite large but the
Tigers will cover it in style. Pick – 3 units on Tigers -10.5 point
start (BEST BET)
Broncos to bt Dragons
2 at 2.15
+2.3
Following their loss to the Roosters on
Monday night the Broncos are now treading on thin ice sitting at 9th on
the points table and another loss here will make things very tough for
them (sorry to sound like a broken record this round), they’ll have
worked very hard all week on their leaky defence though and will be very
tough to beat here. The Dragons have not been living up to their
premiership favouritism tag over the past month with their attack
lacking fire and teams seem to have come up with answers to their simple
yet effective game plan and no doubt Broncos coach Ivan Henjak will have
a plan of his own to stop them. It’s short and sweet here, the Broncos
have the game breakers to get the job done on attack and we already know
just how brutal and effective their defence can be when they switch on,
and switched on is exactly what they’ll be for this match. Even with the
home ground advantage the Broncos are still the under dogs here and
offer great value as they get the read on this Dragons side and come
away with the win. Pick – 2 units on Broncos to win
NRL ROUND TWENTY
Raiders -8.0 v Sharks
3 at 1.91
-3
This is a tale of two sides going in opposite directions with the
Raiders hitting their high of the season last round in demolishing the
Knights 52-18 whilst on the other hand the Sharks were obliterated 48-18
by the Sea Eagles. The Sharks have had a rough week with coach Ricky
Stuart walking out on them and will have been badly disrupted leading
into this clash against a side that has won two in a row and could
potentially bring up another half century of points here. The Raiders
are going to dominate every facet of this match and I am
shocked/stunned/flabbergasted that the Raiders are paying anywhere near
where the Bookies have priced them – get on the Raiders to cover the
line. Pick – 3 units on Raiders -8.5 or better point start
Rabbitohs -2.5 v Warriors
3 at 1.91
+2.75
This is a true litmus test to see whether the Warriors are top four
contenders or pretenders, I for one believe this match will provide a
big reality check for the New Zealand side, not to take anything away
from the last five weeks though as they have shown plenty of guts and
spine. Their opposition here, the Bunnies, are absolutely desperate this
week after they put up a great fight last round against the Dragons but
fell just short, they showed all the qualities of a side that has plenty
left to offer in 2010 though and, starting here, they’re about to start
climbing the points table. I’ve said it many time already this season –
the Bunnies have stockpiles of quality in their forward pack and will be
very fired up for this encounter…the Warriors don’t stand a chance. The
Warriors 5 game winning streak has been helped by the fact 4 of those
games were played in New Zealand , this is in Sydney though and the
juggernaut is about to hit a very large and determined brick wall. The
Bookies have gone for a very narrow line….the Bunnies could cover it
blindfolded. Pick – 3 units on Rabbitohs -2.5 point start
(BEST BET)
Titans +12.5 v Dragons
2 at 1.85
+1.7
This is a season defining match for the Titans as they fight to stay in
the top eight and prove to themselves they are able to compete against
the top sides when playing away from Skilled Park. The side the Titans
have named is certainly more than capable of causing the upset here,
they’ll have to do so without star five-eight Greg Bird though who is
out injured but they have great cover with Rogers moving in to fill his
shoes. The Dragons got home late against the Bunnies last week, helped
by some poor handling from the opposition, but showed signs of
vulnerability once they got behind, their class prevailed in the end
though. The Titans are certainly good enough to make a game of this and
one would certainly expect they’ll throw everything and the kitchen sink
into this match which makes the generous point start on offer from the
Bookies quite attractive.
Pick – 2 units on Titans +11.5 or better point start
Sea Eagles -3.5 v Tigers
3 at 1.80
+2.4
The Sea Eagles exploded into action last week in demolishing the Sharks,
this match promises much tougher opposition though but I’m confident
they can string together another top performance as they charge up the
points table. The Sea Eagles forward pack will have it over the Tigers
here and that will be the perfect platform for Foran and Hodkinson to
again launch their attack, they have the added bonus of having Lyon in
top form also who has been playing like a five-eight, creating tries and
looking dangerous anywhere near the opposition line. Whilst the Tigers
have been winning of late they’ve not been terribly convincing and this
match promises to be their toughest for some time. The line on offer is
not large and I expect the Sea Eagles to cover it in style.
Pick – 3 units on Sea Eagles -4.5 or better point start
NRL ROUND NINETEEN
Titans to bt Broncos
3 at 2.05
-3
Skilled Parks legend as one of the most
formidable fortresses of any home side in the competition has taken a
real battering this season with the Titans letting down their guard
several times, they will have no greater motivation than this match to
rebuild that legend though, facing their third defeat in a row and up
against their most formidable foe the Broncos. The Titans have named an
unchanged side to that which lost to the Tigers last week but their key
playmaker Scott Prince will be much better for having had that run and I
expect him to be a handful for the Broncos who themselves welcome back
some very big guns in Thaiday, Lockyer, Folau and Glenn to the side that
lost their last outing, also to the Tigers. This match is of vital
importance to both these sides with a loss making life even tougher in
the very tight log-jam for top eight spots. I’m surprised that the
Bookies are favouring the Broncos here as the Titans will be better this
week and very very tough to beat in front of a packed Skilled Park. Keep
an eye on Prince and other senior players in the Titans side to really
step up and lead the Titans to victory. Pick – 3 units on Titans to win
Rabbitohs +6.0 v Dragons
3 at 1.97
+2.91
Rabbitohs to bt Dragons
1 at 2.83
-1
The Rabbitohs seem to keep finding
themselves in this situation, desperately needing a win to stay in the
top eight, it should not be this way for a side that has arguably the
best forward pack in the competition on paper and backs that are more
than capable, to their credit though they’ve won such desperate games
similar to this over the past months and I’m expecting them to fire
again when it’s desperately needed here. The Dragons were
uncharacteristically average in their last outing in losing to the
Panthers, they do welcome back their origin stars here though but are
still without Weyman in the forwards and Cooper at Centre, the Bunnies
on the other hand are still without Isaac Luke but Falloon looks a
capable replacement at Hooker. I’m not convinced we’ll see the Dragons
return to their best here, they were severely disrupted through Origin
and are still without two of their best players whilst the return of
Gasnier in their last match was a fizzer and they’re about to encounter
a very experienced and toughened Souths side that are playing for their
season. The Bookies have the Bunnies at very generous odds and have
subsequently given them a decent point start which we’ll have for our
best bet of the weekend. Pick – 3 units on Rabbitohs +6.0 point start
(BEST BET) and 1 unit on Rabbitohs to win
Eels to bt Panthers
3 at 2.50
+4.5
There’s a feeling of déjà vu in the air
following the Eels commanding performance against the Cowboys in which
Hayne took us back in time to this time last year where he shifted up a
couple of gears and kick started the Eels on their charge to the Grand
Final, I for one believe that history could be about to somewhat repeat
and the Eels are going to be very tough to beat over the coming weeks.
Hayne was superb against the Cowboys and once the Eels relaxed a little
and passes started to stick then the points came, and I expect the tries
to keep coming this week against the Panthers who are coming into this
fresh off a loss to the Warriors. The Panthers successful season to date
has had a lot to do with confidence and that confidence would have taken
a big dent last week after their attack could only muster a mere 6
points against the visiting Warriors and to make matters worse they’ve
lost the inspirational Luke Lewis this week to injury. This match is
going to be won with confidence and desperation, two things the Eels
will be full of, and I am more than happy backing them to get the upset
here. Pick – 3 units on Eels to win
Sea Eagles -7.0 v Sharks
3 at 1.92
+2.76
The Sharks season is all but over whilst
the Sea Eagles are just outside the top eight but have barely shifted
out of 3rd gear over the past month or so, that has to change from this
week on though if they’re to make the finals. There is no way on earth
Des Hasler will put up with anything but 110% from his players from this
point on and a big win here is exactly what’s needed to mend the damage
that the last month has done to their confidence and looking at the team
sheet for this match there is no doubt that if they turn up with the
right attitude and intensity, which they will, then they’ll put up a
large total against the battling Sharks whilst limiting the home side to
single digits. The Sea Eagles avalanche will begin in the forwards as we
see the high tempo attack that’s characterised this Manly machine over
the past few seasons giving Foran and Hodkinson the perfect platform to
remind us how good they can be in leading the damaging backline. The
Bookies have Manly as favourites but the line is not large and they’ll
cover it with ease. Pick – 3 units on Sea Eagles -7.0 point start
NRL ROUND EIGHTEEN
Titans +4.5 v Tigers
2 at 1.92
+1.84
Even though they came away with the win
over the Broncos last week I was left disgusted with the Tigers effort,
especially after backing them to cover the line, they looked like they’d
bet against themselves and I was shocked to discover the following
morning they’d won (I threw the TV out the window at halftime). The
Titans meanwhile come into this fresh off the Bye, which was just what
the doctor ordered following their surprise loss to the Knights at
Skilled Park the previous week, they were without their co-captain and
talisman Scott Prince though who is back in the side for this match,
with Campbell moving back to his best position of fullback. The Tigers
are without their star Englishman Gareth Ellis in the second-row but
they do welcome back Robert Lui to halfback whilst the Titans have
Tagatese and Mead out in the backs but have sufficient cover and their
side looks the goods, on paper at least. With Prince back we’ll see the
Titans at their best, they have a more experienced and disciplined pack
than the Tigers and pace to burn right across the park. If the Tigers
play anywhere near as pedestrian as they did last week then they’ll be
flogged, but I’m sure they’ll lift somewhat, but not enough to cover the
point start. Pick – 2 units on Titans +4.5 point start.
Roosters to bt Rabbitohs
2 at 2.03
+2.06
The last time these two met was back in
round one where the Roosters upset the favoured Bunnies and ran home
easy winners 36-10. The Roosters have close to their strongest side
available for this clash whilst the Bunnies are missing a crucial
ingredient to their success this year – Isaac Luke whose form has been
devastating and his skirting runs around dummy half have led to
countless metres gained and numerous tries. Luke’s absence gives the
Roosters the upper hand with regards offensive firepower and I saw
enough from them last week in their win over the Raiders to suggest
they’re going to be a handful for the up and down Bunnies. Roosters
coach Brian Smith is a good motivator of men, especially come the big
occasion, and I have no doubt he will have pencilled in this clash
against their old foe as one of the bigger games of the regular season
and he’ll have his players fired up, as they were in round one. The
Bookies have the Bunnies as slight favourites but the Roosters hold more
aces up their sleeve and I am happy to back them for the win to get our
OTP balance looking more healthy!! Pick – 2 units on Roosters to win.
Panthers -8.5 v Warriors
3 at 1.91
-3
The
Warriors have impressed in winning three in a row but all of those
victories have been in New Zealand so this trip to Penrith is a whole
different ball game for them, especially given they’re up against the
in-form team of the competition who are welcoming back some heavy
artillary for this clash. The Panthers defensive effort in beating the
Dragons on Monday night was brilliant and if the effort is similar here
then the Warriors will not crack double digits. We’ve already seen this
year just how vulnerable the Warriors are away from NZ and I can’t help
but feel they’re about to face a reality check in the form of a very
consistent and determined Panthers side. The line for this is not as
large as I was expecting so I’m more than happy to recommend backing the
home side to cover it for the weekends best bet. Pick – 3 units on
Panthers -8.5 point start (BEST BET)
NRL ROUND SEVENTEEN
Tigers -4.5 v Broncos
3 at 1.98
-3
The Tigers will arrive in Brisbane
for this match brimming with confidence given the relative strength of
the side they've named in comparison to the Broncos who have a number of
second stringers filling the absence of the stars they have away for
origin duties along with recent injuries to Setu and Glenn. The Tigers
winning run came to a screeching halt last week when they crashed and
burned to the Dragons whilst the Broncos ground out a win over the
sliding Eels, this will be a much tougher match for them though. There
is a huge gulf of experience between these sides with the Tigers holding
a huge advantage over the Broncos and I just feel they're going to hold
all the aces as they capitalise on the opportunity they've been
presented with and clock up a large try tally whilst frustrating the
Broncos offence with some in-your-face defence from their large and
mobile forwards. The Tigers have lost their last four in a row to the
Broncos but there's no way this side will make it five; the Bookies have
them as favourites but the line is not large and I expect they'll cover
it! Pick - 3 units on Tigers -4.5 point start
(BEST BET)
Eels to bt Warriors
3 at 2.45
-3
Funny as it sounds but Haynes absence from
the Eels side to play the Warriors could be the best thing for them
given his apparent rift with coach Daniel Anderson and the effect this
is having on his game. I'm expecting the team to gel in Haynes absence
and the trip across the Tasman is the perfect starting point for a
turnaround in fortunes for the out of sorts Eels, they certainly do not
lack in big game players and what better chance for the Halves pairing
of Robson and Mortimer to remind us of their potential and step up and
spark the Eels faltering offence. The Warriors got out of jail last week
against the Roosters thanks to the champion qualities of the Hatrick
scoring Locke whose match winning heroics have cost him a couple of
weeks out injured, joining another match winner on the sidelines in
Brent Tate. The biggest battle for the Warriors will be constructing
tries against the second best defence in the competition and whilst the
Eels themselves have struggled for points I'm confident we'll see a
revitalised Eels offence. There is a lot of experience in this Eels pack
who won't have taken the recent slide down the points table lightly,
this is a great opportunity to show their champion qualities though and
I'm confident we'll see the Eels go back to Sydney victorious. Pick - 3
units on Eels to win
Dragons -7.0 v Panthers
3 at 1.90
-3
The Dragons just continue to churn out
comfortable victory after comfortable victory and I see this week as
being no different, at home against a Panthers side who are missing
their three stars - Civoniceva, Lewis and Jennings. The Dragons have
lost Weyman, Boyd and Cooper but have greater depth than the Panthers
and the ace up their sleeve in the return of Gasnier who will be making
his long awaited return to the great game. I can't believe Jamie Soward
has missed out on a NSW jumper.....their loss is the Dragons gain though
and he'll do what he's been doing all year, leading this formidable
offence, along with Hornby in the Halves, off the back of what I expect
will be yet another dominant forward display, then chuck in the best
defence in the competition and you've got yourself a comfortable win to
this unstoppable juggernaut. The line from the Bookies should be larger
here and the Dragons will cover it with ease. Pick - 3 units on Dragons
-7.5 or better point start
NRL ROUND SIXTEEN
Sea Eagles +6.5 v Panthers
2 at 1.94
-2
Manly are missing their key ingredient to so much of their success this
week with Jamie Lyon succumbing to injury but even without him they have
a real chance of upsetting the high flying Panthers here. The Panthers
go into this fresh off a very good win away over the Broncos and will be
focusing on much the same here, especially from their halves who will be
tested by another high flying young pairing in Hodkinson and Foran. The
Sea Eagles key strength lies in their forward pack who are bolstered
this week with the return of Watmough from injury, giving them a very
formidable look and if they can get the ascendancy over the Panthers
then life will be a whole lot easier out wide and points will come. I
expect this match will be dominated by defence rather than attack so
even though the point start to the visiting Sea Eagles is slim I’ll
happily jump on it. Tempted to back the win but let’s just start the
weekend safely. Pick – 2 units on Sea Eagles +5.5 or better point start
Eels to bt Broncos
3 at 1.87
-3
The Eels were dreadful on Monday night in losing to the Knights and will
have worked hard on their ball handling and discipline going into this
clash with the Broncos who themselves suffered a loss last week to the
Panthers. The Eels have lost the angry Tahu this week but have otherwise
named a very formidable side to take on the side that’s standing between
them and a spot in the top eight. I expect a very big game from the Eels
as they right the wrongs of Monday night and get the win in front of
their home fans. The Eels will win this match through intensity on
defence, they have conceded nearly 100 less points that the Broncos this
year, and will move the ball around a lot on attack, creating chances
that will become points as those 50/50 passes stick, unlike Monday
night. Pick – 3 units on Eels to win (BEST BET)
Rabbitohs to bt Storm
2 at 2.65
+3.3
The Bunnies are at full strength going into this match which means they
are fielding one of the most formidable packs in the competition and
with a mixed run of results lately they’ll be targeting this game for a
big turnaround against a Storm side I expect will run hot and cold for
the rest of the season, this will be the cold following last weeks
sizzling performance in demolishing the Cowboys. This match is on
neutral ground in Perth so does not favour either side but the result
will come down to attitude and intensity - the Bunnies have everything
to play for and the Storm don’t. The Bunnies have clocked up more points
than any other side on attack this season, their main problem though has
been defence with regular lapses in intensity letting them down but that
won’t be a problem here. The forwards are going to lay the platform and
the backs will razzle and dazzle – the bookies have overinflated the
odds for the Bunnies to win and have some of that great value.
Pick – 2 units on Rabbitohs to win
NRL ROUND FIFTEEN
Panthers to bt Broncos
2 at 2.66
+3.32
The Broncos have a number of players facing
just a two day turnaround from Wednesday nights origin match whilst the
Panthers just have Waterhouse doing the double and will be grateful to
the judiciary in allowing them to have Lewis come into this fresh
following his one match suspension. Despite the Broncos great recent
form I can’t see them firing collectively as a team once again this week
with their big three – Folau, Lockyer and Thaiday still coming down from
the high of yet another Queensland origin series win, they’re up against
a fresh Panthers side who have a healthy win record at Suncorp Stadium
and who are themselves playing the best they have in years and
subsequently are second on the points table – all of which points to
good value on them to snatch the upset win. Pick – 2 units on Panthers
to win
Bulldogs to bt Titans
3 at 2.26
-3
It seems I’m a sucker for punishment
from this Bulldogs side thus far in 2010 and backing them has cost us
some valuable units, there is life left in the blue and whites though
and this game, more than any they’ve played to date, is the most
defining for their season and I’m confident they’ll come through for
themselves, their fans and, most importantly, us punters. The Titans
were good for us last week and came through against Manly with flying
colours, they were at Skilled Park though and up against a fairly
depleted Manly side, this match will be a much bigger hurdle as I expect
the Dogs senior players in the likes of Kimmorley, Ennis, Ryan, Patten
and Stagg to really lift themselves and also demand more from the
talented youngsters they have around them. This will be vintage Bulldogs
and a decent payday for you Punters as the Bookies have joined the
bandwagon of anti Bulldog sentiment – they ain’t done with yet! Pick – 3
units on Bulldogs to win (BEST BET)
Raiders +8.0 v Tigers
3 at 1.92
-3
Like a number of other sides this year the
Raiders have been all over the show, triumphant one week and then
looking like a disinterested mob of guys that have just met each other
for the first time the next, with last weeks loss to the Cowboys being a
good example of the latter. With the talent that this Raiders side has I
struggle to see how they don’t win more matches, their forward pack can
be devastating, as we’ve seen in glimpses this season, whilst with
Campese and McCrone in the Halves and the likes of Vidot, Monaghan and
Milne outside them there is no excuse for their mediocre 11th placing on
the ladder. You know where I’m heading with this….the Tigers good
momentum they built up going into the Bye will have been somewhat halted
with the break whilst the Raiders will be more than up for this match
following a series of performances that, by their own admission, they
need to forget and take the opportunities in front of them (if they’re
not 110% up for this then heads should roll – starting with the entire
coaching staff!!). Marshall and Farah are the obvious dangers on attack
for the Tigers but I’m confident the Raiders will have plenty of points
of their own and that point start on offer is looking very good. Pick –
3 units on Raiders +7.5 or better point start
NRL ROUND FOURTEEN
Titans -6.0 v Sea Eagles
3 at 1.91
+2.73
The Titans fortress of Skilled Park was
breached last game here when they were thrashed by the Roosters, they
followed that match up with another loss last week to the Raiders in
Canberra and are all of a sudden not looking so flash sitting at 6th on
the table, two places behind the Sea Eagles who themselves had a loss
last match out against the Broncos. The Titans have only lost Harrison
to origin selection whilst the Sea Eagles have a few out through
suspension and injury, namely Watmough, Lyon and Matai – three key
players who form the backbone of this side. The Bookies have the Titans
as favourites but the line posted by them is way too skinny and I expect
the home side to cover it with ease, using their weight of experience
and flair to chalk up a comfortable win and get their season back on
track in style. Pick – 3 units on Titans -6.5 or better point start
Knights -4.0 v Warriors
3 at 1.91
-3
I’ve been rubbing my hands together
since the odds were posted for this match as the Knights are offering
very good value against a side that they’re below on the points table
but I expect them to right that wrong in style here. The Warriors
punched above their weight last week in nearly beating the Dragons
whilst the Knights put in a lethargic effort in losing to the Panthers
with a number of their senior players looking tired and frustrated, in
particular Adam McDougall who should be sharper this week having dusted
off the cobwebs last week following his injury absence. The Knights have
lost their captain Kurt Gidley to origin and have lost Steve Simpson to
injury, they’re relatively well off though compared to the Warriors who
have a number of their best players sidelined through injury with the
latest being Brent Tate. The Knights will be too strong for the Warriors
in literally every position here, none more so than in the Halves as
Dureau and Mullen will spark the attack that will see the home side
clock up plenty of points as the defence of the Warriors gets more paper
thin as the game progresses. The line is way too skinny and it’s great
value for the the Knights to cover it with ease.
Pick – 3 units on Knights -4.5 or better point start
(BEST BET)
NRL ROUND THIRTEEN
Eels to bt Storm
3 at 2.30
+3.9
The Eels currently sit outside the
top eight and following their 30-0 drubbing at the hands of the Dragons
last week their fans and seasoned coach Daniel Anderson will be
demanding a head-turning performance here against a Storm side who are
choc full of talent but are just making up the numbers in terms of the
points table and I'm confident we'll see the side that has the most to
gain from the win here take out the victory - the Eels. The Storm
welcome back their captain and Hooker Cameron Smith for this 2009 Grand
Final replay but I don’t expect his presence to make a difference to the
result. The Eels feel hard done by from the NRL and are arguably
deserving of the 2009 title and we’ll see those emotions spill out onto
the field in what I expect will be an Eels signature performance for the
season so far. The Bookies have the Storm as clear favourites here which
makes the near full strength Eels side very good value and I’m more than
happy recommending you hard working punters invest in them for the win -
good value! Pick - 3 units on Eels to win (BEST
BET)
Bulldogs to bt Tigers
2 at 2.27
-2
Even after taking into account the Bulldogs
poor recent form, their less than average record over the Tigers and
injured personnel I was still surprised to see what the Bookies have
priced them at to win this match. The Dogs do have some injury concerns
but have still managed to name a very good side to take the field here
and as long as their attitude is right, which it will be, they will be
more than a handful for the Tigers who will find this a very large step
up from the woeful Warriors who they crushed last week. We'll see a
number of these Bulldogs senior players really step up here and the team
will remind us of their 2009 credentials, particularly on defence where
they'll frustrate the Tigers offence through lack of opportunities. This
won't be a huge win but a win nonetheless to the Dogs and again the
Bookies are offering good value! Pick – 2 units on Bulldogs to win
Knights to bt Panthers
2 at 2.66
-2
Having had last week off with the Bye, I
feel the Knights are in a good position here to climb their way up from
the woeful 12th position they are on the points table. The Knights
finally welcome back Adam McDougall to the Centres and his highly
competitive nature is bound to lift those around him and with a few
other injuries cleared up throughout the side it all of a sudden has a
very good look to it, with a good mixture of experience, power and class
that will cause this Panthers side, who are still without their
inspirational captain Civoniceva, some major headaches. Gidley’s
performance at Halfback will be closely watched by the NSW selectors and
I don’t expect him to disappoint and his partnership with Mullen will
lead to plenty of points for the Visitors. Sorry Panthers fans but the
slide down the ladder continues this week as we cash in on the great
value on offer for the Knights. Pick – 2 units on Knights to win
NRL ROUND TWELVE
Tigers -6.5 v Warriors
3 at 1.92
+2.76
The Tigers go into this following a convincing win over the Knights in a
match where they finally showed some ticker following a month of below
par performances whilst the Warriors also go into this with some
momentum having picked up their second win in a row, this time over the
Rabbitohs in Auckland. I was expecting the odds to be firmer in the
favour of the Tigers here as they’ve got the game breakers the Warriors
lack and having turned a corner last week they’re not about to lose at
home to a side that lacks consistency and has a dreadful record on the
road. The Tigers forward pack – led by Farah, Gibbs, Ellis and Payten
will dominate the visitors and create the go forward that Marshall and
Farah will turn into points, and plenty of them. The Warriors are not a
top eight side and are about to get shunted down the ladder by a Tigers
side that won’t be lacking in intensity and desire. The line is too
narrow here and I am more than happy to recommend you punters to cash in
on it! Pick – 3 units on Tigers -6.5 point start
(BEST BET)
Cowboys to bt Sea Eagles
2 at 2.36
-2
The Sea Eagles have been uncharacteristically
inconsistent so far this season and will be giving the Bookies a few
headaches as they try and nail down which Manly side will turn up each
week, with this in mind they’ve taken a bit of a risk here in installing
them as favourites, in Townsville, against a Cowboys side that’s
fielding close to their strongest line-up this season and are desperate
to get the win. Both these sides had the Bye last round and both
suffered losses in their last outings, the Cowboys going down to the
Warriors in Auckland whilst the Sea Eagles lost at home to the Eels, of
the two sides though it’s the Cowboys who need this win the most having
clocked up just 3 wins so far this season, sitting them at a miserable
14th on the table, a phenomenal situation for a side that is brimming
with backline talent and muscle in the forwards – I’m confident they
will be well and truly up for this though. A number of these Cowboys
forwards are prone to inconsistency but really rise to the occasion when
the heat has come on the side and criticism has been levelled at them –
with this in mind I’m sure we’re about to see some very big performances
from the likes of O’Donnell, Mason, Webb, Kaufusi and co – if they can
win the battle of the forwards, and I believe they will, then Thurston
showed on Origin night he’s in season best form and will need no second
invitation to create havoc amongst the Manly defence. Manly have more
players backing up from origin and they could be a tad weary, either way
though the odds on the Cowboys to get the win are handy and we’ll have a
piece of it. Pick – 2 units on Cowboys to win
Rabbitohs to bt Panthers
3 at 2.00
+3
Credit where it’s due to the Panthers, they’ve been
one of the most consistent sides so far this season and again showed
their class in easily beating the Bulldogs on Monday night, the
Rabbitohs though are on the opposite side of the scale and are possibly
the most inconsistent side in the competition and go into this fresh off
a loss to the Warriors in Auckland. Inconsistency aside, this is a very
capable Souths side with one of the best forward packs, on their day, in
the competition and they showed two rounds ago just what can happen when
they flex their muscles in beating the Tigers by a record margin. I’m
very confident this match will be one that we see the Bunnies at close
to their best - on home turf and with their strongest side possible
named (or very close to it) they’ll look to pummel the visitors into
submission with their big and very mobile forward pack, whilst they’ve
got a great depth of experience and talent in the backs who know their
way to try-line. The Bookies have struggled to split these two sides but
I’ve got no qualms about backing the Bunnies to show us their better
side and come away with a comfortable win. Pick – 3 units on Rabbitohs
to win
NRL ROUND ELEVEN
Tigers to bt Knights
3 at 1.94
+2.82
The Tigers are very well placed here
to bounce back and go some way to redeeming themselves following their
pathetically gutless effort in being thrashed by Souths last week, with
no players out through Origin and facing a Newcastle side that’s without
lost three of their stars in Mullen, De Gois and Gidley. One thing the
Tigers have not lacked over the years is character and there’s no way
Tim Sheens will have taken last weeks loss well, not senior players such
as Farah (who won’t be happy following his origin omission) and Marshall
– who I expect will lead the dramatic turnaround this week. The Tigers
defence will have worked incredibly hard this week to get their
attitude, technique and intensity right for this match and they’ll be
hard to breach, whilst those two already mentioned – Marshall and Farah
– will create plenty for the side on attack. The Bookies have split
these sides as even but I’m really liking the Tigers to bounce back and
take this. Pick – 3 units on Tigers to win
(BEST BET)
Sharks +11.5 v Eels
2 at 1.85
+1.7
The Sharks are unscathed from origin
selection following the shock omission of Gallen from the NSW squad, the
Eels on the other hand are without Tahu and Hayne in the backline. The
Eels have surprisingly lost their last four encounters against the
Sharks and with still plenty to play for in 2010 I think there’s every
possibility the Sharks could make it five in a row here. The Sharks have
a very solid forward pack that fire up sporadically and with the
firepower of Tupou and Morris returning to the side this week, and fired
up captain who has a point to prove, along with a healthy amount of
experience, not to mention the class of Smith and Barrett in the Halves
then you’ve got a side that I’m happy to back with the 10.5 point start
on offer. The Sharks own worst enemy is attitude and self belief but I
don’t expect either to be an issue here. Pick – 2 units on Sharks +10.5
or better point start
Raiders to bt Dragons
2 at 2.26
+2.52
This is a golden opportunity for the
Raiders to snatch an away win over the runaway competition favourites
who happen to have close to half their starting side out through origin
duties, the Raiders on the other hand have lost two players in
Learoyd-Lahrs and Shillington. I’m expecting a particularly large game
from Dugan and Campese – two players unlucky to miss origin selection,
and with Monaghan now back and playing dangerously he’ll be hard to stop
under Campo’s high balls to the corner. The only issue here is the
Raiders attitude on the road, sometimes appearing lacklustre and
disinterested, I can’t see that being an issue here though as they must
surely appreciate what a big task they have on their hands and that
master coach Bennett will still have this Dragons side primed for a big
one. The forward battle will be close but I see the match being won
primarily off the back of those three Raiders stars mentioned above –
Monaghan, Campese and Dugan, as they lift the team to a gutsy away win.
I was hoping for better value on the Raiders but we’ll have a piece of
it anyway. Pick – 2 units on Raiders to win
NRL ROUND TEN
Broncos to bt Titans
3 at 1.88
+2.64
The Broncos played their best game of the
season last week in demolishing the Storm and with four players
returning this week from injury their stocks are all of a sudden looking
very healthy, especially with Wallace returning in the halves to provide
some much needed support for Lockyer. Their opposition here, the Titans,
are also riding high following their win last week over the Knights, I
was not inspired by that effort though given the Knights kept inviting
them back into the match with some poor defence and handling errors,
this week will be a much tougher challenge. The Broncos forward pack
will be looking to follow-up last weeks dominant effort with another
here and will match the impressive Titans pack, whilst the options on
attack for the Broncos are looking good and they will ask plenty of
questions of the Titans defence. Hunt is better suited to Hooker for the
Broncos and adds another string to their bow, whilst Folau and others in
the backline looked unstoppable against the Storm and I expect a
continuation of that effort here. The Bookies can't split these two
sides but I can - Broncos to win!! Pick - 3 units on Broncos to win
Warriors -7.5 v Cowboys
3 at 2.05
+3.15
The Warriors have been a real bogy
side for onthepunt this season - putting in pathetically spineless
efforts when I've backed them to fire and then playing out of their skin
when I've backed them to fail miserably...I'm confident I've finally
come to grips with their pattern though, so much so that I'll get back
on that horse and back them again here to fire on home soil with some
key personel returning in Mannering and Vatuvai along with Brett Seymour
who will provide some much needed spark in the halves. The Cowboys go
into this fresh off a gutsy win over the Roosters but like the Warriors
they are up and down like a yo-yo and I'm not convinced they've got
another performance like that in them two weeks in a row away from home.
The Cowboys will be confronted with a very fired up Warriors pack and a
defence that will have worked hard following some pathetic efforts in
their last two matches. The Warriors have shown they're capable of at
least the odd good performance this season and I'm very confident we'll
see them play close to their capacity here and win this one quite
comfortably against what looks set to be an injury hit Cowboys side.
*Check final teams. Pick - 3 units on Warriors -7.5 point start
(BEST BET)
Raiders to bt Storm
2 at 2.40
-2
The motivation for the Storm to lift each
week is going to get tougher and tougher and without their captain and
Hooker Cam Smith last week they looked a shadow of the side in losing to
the Broncos and nothing like the team that had comfortably won the
previous two games they played following the salary cap breach. I'm not
convinced we're going to see any great turnaround in motivation and
attitude here as they are up against a fresh and close to fully fit
Raiders side who will be well and truly up for this match, looking to
capitalise on the Storms predicament. It's short and sweet for this
match, Cam Smith's leadership is a key ingredient in this Storm sides
success and his absence leaves a gapping hole, they need a leader now
more than ever and I just can't see them lifting to the level needed to
win this match, the Raiders though look to have turned a corner
following their away win over the Warriors in Auckland two weeks ago and
should not have any motivational issues here. The Bookies have the
Raiders as the underdogs and we'll happily jump on the generous price on
offer. Pick - 2 units on Raiders to win
NRL ROUND NINE
Sea Eagles to bt Dragons
2 at 2.60
+3.2
Both these sides have over half their
squads involved in Friday night rep footy so the actual make-up of the
sides that take the field compared to those named could be quite
different depending on how they come through Friday. The Dragons just
keep churning out top class performances and their attitude is
phenomenal, turning up each week like they're playing in the grand
final, this week will be a very big challenge for them though against a
Sea Eagles side that's looking very strong and will be determined to get
some momentum going in their season following some early inconsistent
form, but last weeks win over the Rabbitohs looked like a real turning
point. This will be a very even forward battle and the great form of the
Manly halves will match it with Hornby and Soward but where this match
will be won will be in defence and I see the big Brookvale crowd lifting
the Sea Eagles to an upset win in a close, low scoring match. Pick - 2
units on the Sea Eagles to win
Knights to bt Titans
3 at 1.91
-3
Both these sides only have a handful
of players each backing up from Friday night Representative duties so
I'm not expecting any major changes to the line-ups come kick-off. The
Bookies are struggling to split these two sides but I'm confident the
Knights will prosper on home soil and with an extra skip in their step
following last week away win over the Broncos. Prince's return last week
was a boost for the Titans but he's still be a couple of matches away
from top form and with the Titans traditional struggles on the road I'm
not convinced we'll see them at their best here. The Knights have plenty
of points in them with Dureau and Mullen forming a dangerous pairing in
the halves, Gidley chiming in around the rucks and a forward pack that
fires up in front of their home fans and they're the type of team that
rely on momentum so it's important for them to start strong and kick on.
Knights to win this with attitude and aggression. Pick - 3 units on
Knights to win (BEST BET)
NRL ROUND EIGHT
Bulldogs to bt Eels
2 at 2.75
-2
The Eels slipped past the Cowboys last week, doing enough (just) to win
the match, but it was clear to anyone watching that they're still a mile
away from being the formidable force we saw at the back end of last
season whilst the Dogs were much more convincing in their demolition of
the Broncos. The Dogs have finally found some good form following their
early season woes and even with Roberts and Morris out of the side I
still expect them to come away with the win here as the Eels are still
finding their attacking feet and will struggle against this tough and
uncompromising Dogs defence. Blake Green coming in at Five-Eight will
provide good support to Kimmorley and will be jumping at the chance to
prove his value to the Dogs and I'm expecting a big game from him. The
players that need to be hitting top form for the Dogs are doing just
that with the likes of Ennis, Kimmorley, Ryan, Patten and Idris all
causing real problems to defensive lines over the last fortnight whilst
their pocket rocket of the bench - Barba - is always good for a try or
two as he continues to bamboozle the opposition. The crowd support will
be fairly even for both sides at ANZ Stadium and I expect the Dogs fans
to leave the ground happy following a continuation of their sides march
towards the top of the points table. Pick - 2 units on Bulldogs to win.
Warriors -6.0 v Raiders
3.5 at 1.92
-3.5
The Raiders gave up yet another big half time lead last week in
losing to the Rabbitohs whilst the Warriors were humiliated by the
Storm, which I'm expecting will be a leading motivational factor for
them to bounce back here. The Raiders have been hit very hard by injury
for this clash losing their captain Tongue who is joining Millar, Fensom
and Mogg on the sidelines and I expect that demoralising loss last week
to the Bunnies to have taken its toll on those taking the field and am
not expecting them to be anywhere near their best, the Warriors on the
other hand are at their most dangerous following a loss like that last
week and whilst they lack the consistency to be anywhere close to top
eight contenders they're capable of pulling out big performances, which
is what we'll get from them here. Lance Hohaia is back to what I feel is
his best position at fullback and will steady things up there. The
entire Warriors side will have been put on notice this week and we'll
see a much more solid defensive line whilst the attack will enjoy
slightly more room this week up against a less formidable defense that
that of the Storm. The Warriors are favourites to win, which is fair
given the Raiders poor away record, and I expect they'll cover the
narrow line easily in what should be yet another Jekyll and Hyde
fortnight from them. Pick - 3.5 units on Warriors -6.0 point start
(BEST BET)
Titans -2.0 v Panthers
2.5 at 1.99
+2.47
The Panthers have been the surprise package of the 2010 season to date
and currently sit second on the table, this week though will be one of
their bigger tests against a Gold Coast side that's fresh off a very
gutsy win over Manly on Monday night and who have the best home ground
record of any side in the competition. The Titans play a very fast paced
game and could run some of the big Panthers forwards off their feet here
which will lead to some big yardage around the rucks, which is exactly
what you don't want to give the Titans as they've got pace to burn out
wide and a very handy halves combo of Campbell and Bird who will
capitalise if given the chances down the right end of the field. It's
short and sweet here, the Panthers have been impressive but this is
their biggest test in a while and man for man the Titans have the
advantage with experience and class, couple that with the Skilled Park
factor and you've got a decent winning margin to the home side. The
Bookies have given favouritism to the Titans but the line to cover is
small and I expect them to cover it easily. Pick - 2.5 units on Titans
-3.5 or better point start
Rabbitohs to bt Sea Eagles
2 at 2.31
-2
The Rabbitohs win last week over the Raiders was definitely a tale of
two halves, they were lethargic and ineffective in the first half and
went into the break well down only to come out a completely different
side in the second and run down the Raiders in formidable style, led by
a rampaging forward pack. The Sea Eagles go into this off the back of a
loss to the Titans on Monday night having given up a decent lead in the
final quarter of the match, regardless of that performance though
they've still be installed as favourites here, which is good for us as
I'm happy backing the Bunnies. The Rabbitohs forward pack will be well
and truly up for this clash as it's possibly their best test to date
that will show how good they really are, up against one of the best
packs in the competition. When the attitude is right from the Bunnies
they are very hard to stop and as they showed in the second half last
week once they gain that ascendancy in the forwards the whole side lifts
and they've got class players right across the park who can capitalise
on such momentum and turn it into points. There will be plenty of
pressure heaped on the young Sea Eagles halves this week, particularly
on defence as some of the monster Bunnies forwards test them out,
whether they're at that level yet to handle such pressure is yet to be
seen, I'm predicting they'll have a relatively ineffective match though
which could spell troubles for the rest of the Manly offence. The odds
are good for the Bunnies to win and I think the Bookies have got this
one wrong. Pick - 2 units on Rabbitohs to win
NRL ROUND SEVEN
Bulldogs -7.5 v Broncos
3 at 1.93
+2.79
The Bulldogs well and truly got
things back on track last week in thrashing the Tigers in a complete
performance that saw a defensive line that was as good as anything they
offered last year and a return to the formidable attack that caused
havoc to many oppositions in 2009, whilst the Broncos took all their
opportunities last week and clocked up a huge win over the struggling
Sharks. The Dogs have named an unchanged side to last week whilst the
Broncos have lost their halfback Peter Wallace to injury and have named
young Ben Hunt in his place. In terms of opposition last week I'm
reading much more into the Dogs victory than that of the Broncos given
the Tigers are a class above the Sharks and I'm not convinced the
Broncos have the organisation in defence to cope against what is a
rejuvenated Dogs attack, and as far as their own attack goes the Broncos
will find the Dogs line very hard to penetrate, especially with Wallace
out and the burden having to fall squarely on the shoulders of Lockyer.
I've been waiting for the Dogs to click for some time now and that
performance last week will be a sign of things to come. The players that
needed to step up did so in fine style with Ennis, Kimmorley, Roberts
and Patten all having their best match of 2010 and it will be those
players this week that will again lead the way here. The Bookies have
given the Dogs heavy favouritism and the line is large but they'll cover
it with ease. Pick – 3 units Bulldogs -7.5 point start.
(BEST BET)
Sharks to bt Knights
2 at 2.66
+3.32
The Sharks have had two weeks to forget
with consecutive thrashings at the hands of Manly then last week to the
Broncos, they're up against a rejuvenated Knights side this week too
following their big win over the Cowboys with the return of Kirt Gidley
sparking the offence. These two sides have had some great battles over
recent seasons and I expect this match to be another. The last match the
Sharks played at home they upset the Eels led by a brilliant defence
which held the Eels scoreless and a persistent attack led by the more
than capable halves duo of Smith and Barrett who have had three weeks
together now to get used to each others roles and strengths. Newcastle
are certainly better off with Gidley back but they showed last week in
falling asleep in the second half against the Cowboys that they're still
not firing at anywhere near 100%, the Sharks we know are well well short
of that also but they do have a very capable and experienced pack that's
only ever a week away from upsetting a side, especially at Shark Park
where they do lift. Ricky Stuart is a very tough competitor and whilst a
top 8 spot in 2010 is a very distant (and very highly unlikely) dream he
will be doing all he can to get his side up for every match and I expect
them to be at a similar level of intensity that we saw from them 3 weeks
ago against the Eels. The experienced campaigners in the Sharks side in
Gallen, Tupou, Douglas and Morris will lead the way here and with three
weeks of playing together now behind them I am confident we'll see
something special from Smith and Barrett who have all the skills and
proven brilliance there and this week will be where it comes together.
I'm expecting this to be
a tight game with a try deciding it either way - I like the Sharks as I expect a big step up in intensity and accuracy as
they try to restore some of the clubs pride in front of their loyal
fans. Pick – 2 units on Sharks to win.
Rabbitohs to bt Raiders
2 at 2.20
+2.4
The Rabbitohs are fast becoming one of the
most unpredictable sides in the competition, putting in stunning
performances one week and looking average the next, last week saw the
more average side of their play in going down to the Eels. Their
opposition here, the Raiders, are proving to be similarly unpredictable
but the difference with them is that with the personnel they have
there's not the same weight of expectation on them each week which is
fortunate considering their effort last week in losing heavily to the
Roosters and to make matters worse they’re without one of their better
performed players in halfback Josh McCrone this week. The Raiders are
going to be up against it here as the Bunnies look to bounce back, they
know what to expect from the Raiders at home - a tough, fast paced
encounter, and will be ready for it with much of the same from
themselves. The Bunnies forward pack is amongst the most formidable in
the competition and I'm confident we'll see them at their best here
following the bollocking they would have received from Souths coach John
Lang during the week. With the forwards leading the way the likes of
Sandow and Sutton in the halves will have plenty of ball and position to
work with and they've shown just how capable they are once the momentum
and confidence is with them. The Bunnies are much stronger on paper
here, even with the loss of their and will be too strong on the field of
play as well. The Bookies have these two sides fairly even, with the
Bunnies slight underdogs and I'm more than happy to jump on the healthy
odds. Pick – 2 units on Rabbitohs to win.
Roosters to bt Dragons
2 at 2.86
-2
NO WRITE-UP AVAILABLE. Pick – 2 units on
Roosters to win.
NRL ROUND SIX
Bulldogs to bt Tigers
2 at 2.35
+2.7
The Dogs woeful start to 2010 continued last week in going down to the
Warriors in a match they were well and truly expected to win and was
particularly hard to stomach given the huge chances I was giving them of
an easy win. The Tigers are in the opposite boat with just the one loss
so far this season and looking every bit the form side of the
competition with an exciting brand of play that has had opposition
defence bamboozled. I am not giving up on the Dogs just yet and know
that this side is just moments away from turning things around. You
could see on the faces of the players that enough is enough following
that loss to the Warriors and this match will be where the character of
this proud club shines through. The key to beating this Tigers side is
to get them on the back foot from the outset and have them playing
catch-up football, this will be achieved by the Dogs with a return to
the characteristic defence of 2009 and the precision from the halves
pairing of Roberts and Kimmorley that saw the likes of Goodwin and
Morris crossing the line with great regularity last year. Confidence is
lacking in the Dogs but as long as they fly out of the box with the
desperation one would expect from a side in their position and have the
Tigers backpedalling then they will force the errors as those 50/50
passes and million dollar plays will stop coming off and the Dogs will
have more than a good sniff at the win. Pick – 2 units on the Bulldogs
to win
Knights -9.5 v Cowboys
3 at 1.90
+2.7
The Knights have let a couple of games slip from their grasp so far this
season, last week was not one of them though as they were
comprehensively dealt to by the Rabbitohs, they have a great opportunity
hear of getting things back on track against a Cowboys side who have
lost the heart and soul of their offence – Jonathan Thurston, and some
other heavy artillery in Southern and O’Donnell. Without Thurston the
Cowboys are really going to struggle to create try scoring opportunities
against a Newcastle side who are about ready to really cut loose in
front of their loyal home fans who have endured some heartbreaking
losses this season, none more so that the amazing loss to the Panthers
two weeks ago where they gave up an 18 point lead to lose in the final
minute. The Knights welcome Kirt Gidley into the side for the first time
this season whose presence will be huge and the Halves pairing of Dureau
and Mullen have shown they’re a force to be reckoned with on attack and
I’m confident we’re going to see much more from them here with a bit of
the pressure taken off them from by Gidley. The desire is there for the
Knights and they have a no nonsense forward pack who are capable of
causing real damage, add to this the mix of experience throughout the
side and you’ve got a very dangerous side. Like a number of other sides
this week it’s approaching D-Day for the Knights and it’s fortunate
timing to get a home game against what will be an uncertain Cowboys side
given the loss of Thurston. The Bookies have given the visiting Cowboys
a good point start but the Knights will cover it. Pick – 3 units on
Knights -10.5 or better point start (BEST BET)
Storm -6.5 v Sea Eagles
2 at 2.02
-2
The Storm suffered their first loss of 2010 last
weekend to the Titans but still looked every bit the premiership
favourites in doing so, only coming undone late in the match by some
brilliant play from the Queenslanders, there opposition here, the Sea
Eagles, come into this match off the back of probably their best
performance of the season in comprehensively beating Cronulla, this is a
much more daunting prospect though. The young Sea Eagles Halves of Foran
and Hodkinson have been steering the Manly offence with great maturity
and with the brilliant early season form Jamie Lyon is in the points
have kept coming, they have had a couple of light games of late though
and they will find this Storm defence, at the fortress of Olympic Park,
difficult to penetrate whilst the Sea Eagles defence will face their
toughest test to date against the high energy offence led as always by
Cameron Smith and Cooper Cronk, surrounded by the brilliant in the
backline of Slater and Inglis, amongst others. The loss last week will
have given the Storm an extra spring in their step at training this week
and Bellamy will have his side well and truly up for this match. The Sea
Eagles do have a formidable forward pack but they should be contained by
the tight and consistent Storm defence. The Bookies have rightfully
installed the home side as the firm favourites here and whilst the line
is quite large I am confident they'll cover it. Pick – 2 units on Storm
-7.5 or better point start
NRL ROUND FIVE
Roosters to bt Panthers
2 at 2.15
-2
The Panthers pulled one out of the hat on
Monday night with their comeback win over the Knights whilst the
Roosters won their third match of the season in demolishing the woeful
Broncos. There is just so much to like about this Roosters side who have
clocked up some very big totals in their three wins and with the
exception of the loss to the Bulldogs they have looked the pick of all
the teams each round. They not only have a very physical and mobile
forward pack capable of matching it with the best in the competition but
they've also got three key playmakers in Anasta, Pearce and Carney who
are all capable of ripping any side apart on their day, add to this the
fact their two Kiwis - Perrett and Kenny-Dowall are in the best form of
their careers plus the safe and experienced Minichiello out wide then
you've got a recipe for success. Roosters coach Brian Smith is only too
aware of the perils of any lowering of attitude and intensity by his
side (Bulldogs, need I say more?) and will have them up for this clash,
the Panthers on the other hand are not destined for top eight honours in
2010 and will struggle to compete offensively here. The Roosters have
given the Bookies some real headaches so far this season and with the
underdog tag here they're very good value. Pick - 2 units on Roosters to
win
Bulldogs -8.0 v Warriors
4 at 1.92
-4
The highly favoured Dogs were well
below par on Monday night in being thrashed by the Rabbitohs and will
have worked very hard all week on getting things back on track,
particularly their offense which was out of sorts and ineffective whilst
the Warriors on the other hand put in a performance I feel will be a
reflection of things to come in 2010 in losing to the Sea Eagles and
barely firing a shot. The Warriors have suffered some heavy personnel
losses early in the season and it really showed last week with their
main attacking weapon Manu Vatuvai out for a few more weeks, joining him
on the sidelines for this match is Price, Mannering and Luck, four
players they could really do with here. The Dogs are going to be well
and truly up for this clash, they are sitting near the bottom of the
points table and are a much better side than that, look for a brutal
onslaught from their forwards who will have it all over the Warriors
here, the pace will blow the Warriors away and Ennis will make easy
yards all day around the ruck, Kimmorley and Roberts will create plenty
and the finishing of Goodwin and Morris will ensure the points keep
ticking up for the home side. Short and sweet, the Warriors simply do
not have the personnel to compete here against a very fired up and
determined Dogs side, it's going to get ugly for the visiting Kiwi side
as they lose by plenty! Pick - 4 units on Bulldogs -8.0 point start
(BEST BET)
Eels -8.5 v Raiders
3 at 1.92
-3
Prior to the start of this season the Eels
were billed as one of the favourites to take the title in 2010, they are
now facing a mini crisis having only won 1 of their first 4 matches, and
to add salt to the wounds their latest loss came against the Sharks who
were on a 13 match losing streak, something has to give here though as
pressure is mounting on Daniel Anderson and his star studded side. Their
opposition here, the Raiders, are themselves coming off a loss to the
Tigers, a match in which they gave up a considerable lead which would
have taken its toll psychologically. The Eels certainly have the fire
power to cause this Raiders side some real damage and I expect some of
the older heads in Hindmarsh, Moimoi, Cayless and Smith will lead from
the front and cement a base from which the halves can work their magic,
add to this the class of Hayne at the back and his influence in open
space and I believe we'll see a return to the attacking machine that got
this Eels side to the Grand Final last year. It seems to be more of an
attitude and confidence issue with the Eels, nothing some mid week soul
searching won't fix. This is a good match for the Eels to resurrect
their season as the Raiders have a very poor record away from Canberra
and generally leak plenty of points on the road. The Bookies rightfully
have the Eels as favourites but the line is a little too skinny and the
slippery Eels will cover it with ease. Pick - 3 units on Eels -8.5 point
start
NRL ROUND FOUR
Roosters -8.5 v Broncos
3 at 1.99
+2.97
The Roosters great start to the season came
well and truly unstuck last week when they were humiliated by the
Bulldogs in what was one of their worst performances of recent memory,
even surpassing some of last seasons shockers, their opposition here,
the Broncos, were not much better though in being thrashed by the
Warriors, losing Israel Folau to injury in the process. The difference
between these two sides is personnel, the Roosters have a side which is
more than capable of a dramatic turnaround this week, especially given
the class and determination they showed in the first two rounds of 2010,
the Broncos on the other hand have not turned any heads so far this
season and will not have the artillery required here on attack to really
ask too many questions of what will be a fired up Roosters defensive
line. Look for a return to the new and improved Roosters game that we
saw in the first two weeks and for the Broncos to continue their
downward spiral as they cop another hefty loss. Pick - 3 units on
Roosters -8.5 point start
Sharks +12.5 v Eels
3 at 1.95
+2.85
The Sharks have broken their club
record of most consecutive losses (13) following their defeat to Souths
last week whilst their opposition here, the Eels, also go into this
match fresh off a loss having gone down to the Tigers last week. The
Bookies have rightfully installed the Eels as hot favourites here but I
do see a glimmer of hope for the home side who are bolstered with the
addition of Tim Smith to the playing ranks at Halfback and I expect he
will bring that much needed spark to the Sharks offence, working well
alongside Barrett. I like the Sharks to get within the spread on offer
from the Bookies, their forward pack has a good look to it and are very
capable of putting in a big effort here and whilst Smith has lacked
recent first grade match practice there's no denying his class and I
expect he'll be up for this match. This will be closer than most expect
and there's money to be made in the point start option to the Sharks as
they throw everything into avoiding their 14th straight loss. Pick – 3
units on Sharks +12.5 point start (BEST BET)
Knights -2.5 v Panthers
3 at 1.92
-3
The Knights were always going to be on a
hiding to nothing last week away from home and up against a very fired
up Manly side choc full of class, this week though is a much more
palatable prospect taking on the Panthers, who themselves are coming off
a loss to the Storm, back in front of their loyal fans at Energy
Australia Stadium. The Knights offense will find the going a little
easier this week and I expect a big influence from Mullen and Dureau in
the halves, they both possess a very dangerous kicking game which was
limited last week due to a lack of field position. One thing the Knights
do not lack is passion and nothing brings this out of them more than
their home fans, I believe we'll see a measured mix of skill and passion
here as the Knights defence fires up and the offense gets going. The
Bookies have put out a narrow line here and I'm happy to recommend
getting on the Knights to cover it. Pick - 3 units on Knights -2.5 point
start
NRL ROUND THREE
Sea Eagles -3.5 v Knights
3.5 at 1.91
+3.18
It was fantastic to see the passion
and anger Dessy Hasler expressed after the Sea Eagles loss to the Eels
on Sunday, their second match in a row where they've given up a double
digit lead in the second half and it's fair to say they will have had a
week of intense training and talks to address just what's going wrong.
Their opposition here, the Knights, put in another gutsy effort last
week but narrowly went down to the Storm; they will still be without
their captain and chief play maker Kurt Gidley for this clash and I'm
dubious as to how effective their offense will prove against what will
be a very fired up Sea Eagles defensive line who, after two weeks of
very costly late meltdowns, will defend any lead they get as if their
lives depended on it. The Sea Eagles forwards will have the upper hand
here with a more experienced pack capable of greater penetration and
will create plenty of opportunities out wide for the likes of Williams,
Matai and Lyon to finish. It's a surprisingly narrow line here from the
Bookies and I expect the fired up Sea Eagles to cover it easily. 3.5 units on Manly -3.5 point start
(BEST BET)
Bulldogs to bt Roosters
2.5 at 2.00
+2.5
The Dogs put in yet another disappointing
effort last week in getting hammered by the very impressive Dragons
whilst the Roosters continued where they left off against Souths and
comprehensively beat the Tigers, this match won't offer the same freedom
of movement they enjoyed against the weak Tiger defencive line though
and I expect the Dogs to have addressed their own defence and make life
very difficult for the Roosters attack. The 2010 version of the Roosters
is certainly much improved from last year and are proving to be very
dangerous on attack, this will be their toughest challenge yet though,
against a desperate Dogs side searching for their first win of the
season, who for the most part are fielding a very similar side to that
which turned heads last season in narrowly missing out on the minor
premiership. The Dogs forward pack has been unusually quiet the past two
weeks and will be an area in which they see a potential strength they
hold over the Roosters, whilst Kimmorley and Roberts have yet to fire
any real shots and spark this dangerous back line like they did in 2010,
one gets the feeling though it's just a matter of time before that
happens. It goes without saying that the Dogs defence must target
Carney, Anasta and Pierce and for the attack from the big Dogs forwards
to be aimed as much as possible at these players to wear them down and
limit their influence in the game. Dogs coach Kevin Moore is very shrewd
and he will have a plan in place here and what better way to forget
about the last two losses than to beat one of their fiercest Sydney
rivals. Dogs to win. 2.5 units on Bulldogs to win
NRL ROUND TWO
Bulldogs +5.5 v Dragons
2 at 1.91
-2
Pathetic, gutless and spineless.....no I'm
not talking about the Bulldogs performance last week but about my own
poor tipping effort which leaves me with plenty of early ground to make
up. My opening pick of this round is to back one of the sides that
caused me so much pain last week - the Bulldogs, who will be cursing
themselves for putting in such a shocker against the Knights and will
have no doubt had a very tough week of training as they prepare for this
daunting task against a Dragons side fresh off a good win over the Eels.
The Dogs have lost Ennis for this clash but have a very good replacement
in Blake Green whilst the Dragons are still without Cooper and have lost
Fien for the season. The Dogs will remember being robbed in the early
rounds last year against the Dragons after a very controversial last
minute try and I would not be surprised at all if this game is again
decided in the dying minutes after a very even and entertaining clash. I
expect much more from Kimmorley and Roberts in the Halves for the Dogs,
they looked sluggish and uninspiring against the Knights and will have
worked hard this week. Expect a fired up Dogs side to at the very least
get within the +5.5 point start on offer. Pick - 2 units on Dogs +5.5
point start
Cowboys -3.0 v Penrith
3 at 1.91
+2.73
The Cowboys will at least take some
positives away from their defeat to Brisbane last week, particularly
their spirited fightback in the second half which gave us all a glimpse
of the sides offensive capabilities, the Panthers on the other hand will
have taken nothing but positives away from their demolition of Canberra,
a side many are tipping to be 2010 wooden spooners. I like the Cowboys
here to win and cover the tight line, they are a very different side at
home and will be buoyed by a large crowd behind them and with arguably
the best halfback in the world at your disposal who himself is
surrounded by a number of class players I am more than confident to jump
on them here as I feel the Bookies have made more of the Panthers win
last week than perhaps they should have, given the Raiders line-up and
very poor record away from Canberra. There are a number of match-ups
that will be great to view but the real difference between these sides
is Thurston and on home turf he's going to weave his magic and will be
the big difference between these two sides. Pick - 3 units on Cowboys
-3.0 point start (BEST BET)
Roosters to bt Tigers
2 at 2.25
+2.5
I was not surprised to see the Roosters put
in such a great effort last week in hammering the Bunnies, I am
surprised though following that win that they're the under dogs for this
match, against a Tigers side fresh off a very hard fought win over
Manly. The Roosters have a good look to them this year and have
obviously responded immediately to the coaching style of Brian Smith.
The Chooks forward pack had it over the much lauded Bunnies forwards and
the halves pairing of Anasta and Pierce really looked dangerous,
providing opportunities across the park whilst Todd Carney is a
revelation at Fullback and having that extra play making option around
the rucks is invaluable. The Bookies are still hungover from last years
pathetic Chooks season and are hesitant to show faith in them this early
on but this is a very different side in 2010 with a very different
attitude and deserve favouritism here....but we won't complain as it
just means good profits for all you hard working punters!! Pick - 2
units on Roosters to win
NRL ROUND ONE
Eels -3.5 v Dragons
3 at 1.91
-3
The start of the best competition in sport is finally with us and this
is a great match to get us underway. Unfortunately for the Dragons their
preparation has been hindered with a few injuries amongst the squad with
Cooper and Hornby looking like non starters, regardless of whether they
take the field though I'm still siding with the Eels here as their squad
is even stronger than that which made it to the Grand Final last year
with the addition of Tahu, Poore and Shackleton and they will be very
tough to beat, particularly in front of their home fans. It's always
tough to make first round predictions but I'm very confident with this
one as the Eels backline will dominate, lead by Mortimer and Robson who
had a sensational pairing in the halves for the Eels last year and I
expect will pick up here where they left off in 2009. The Eels also have
a stronger looking bench and as the game progresses this will take it's
toll on the visitors. The Dragons will find it tougher in 2010 and this
will be a good early yardstick for both these sides seasons. Pick - 3
units on Eels -3.5 point start (BEST BET)
Bulldogs 13+ v Knights
2 at 2.00
-2
After an off season to forget for the Knights, one that cost them two of
their young stars and not too mention the morale sapping that's gone
along with this, the last thing they needed was to be without their best
player and captain Kurt Gidley for Round 1, but that's what they have.
No beating around the bush here, the Dogs have a very strong forward
pack that really stood up last year in laying the platform for the
surprisingly good halves partnership of Noddy and Roberts to work their
magic. The Knights are on the back foot going into this opening round
and will struggle offensively against a strong Dogs defensive line,
whilst I expect the Dogs will dominate all stats and put on a big win
for their home fans. Pick - 2 units on Bulldogs 13+
Titans 13+ v Warriors
3 at 2.25
-3
I'm very surprised the Titans aren't paying a single digit figure to win
the title this year given the strength and experience they are boasting
in nearly every position, none more so than in the halves pairing of
Bird and Prince who will be a very formidable base from which this
offensive juggernaut can launch. I really like this Titans side of 2010
and they must be licking their lips as they line up against what is a
very weak looking Warriors side who are lacking experience (Price,
Mannering and Lillyman all out of this match), lacking any quality
leadership and lacking any sort of formidable firepower on attack. I
like that this game is being played in round 1 because if it was round 4
the odds on the Titans would be much shorter as I expect these two sides
to go in opposite directions in 2010. The Titans have so much offensive
firepower it is scarey and the Warriors don't stand a chance, expecially
not as the Titans look to restore the 'fortress' tag for Skilled Park in
2010......this is going to be a very very long afternoon for the
Woe-rriors. Pick - 3 units on Titans 13+
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FUTURES
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2012 US MASTERS
Mickelson, Phil 6.00
Mcilroy, Rory 7.00
Woods, Tiger 8.50
Westwood, Lee 21.00
Donald, Luke 21.00
Watney, Nick 26.00
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Johnson, Dustin 34.00
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