with OnThePunt's resident Union guru
Updated 8:08 PM AEST, Thursday 17 May
WANT TO KNOW WHEN NEW
TIPS ARE POSTED? FOLLOW US ONTWITTER
SUPER RUGBY - WEEK THIRTEEN
Hurricanes -5.0 v Brumbies
3 at 1.91
?
The Canes gave shown a good ability to win
playing flash and dash rugby as well as the ability to grind out a match
as they did last week against the Highlanders and with that win they
proved just how they've matured throughout the season which now sees
them with a chance at making a run for the finals. The Brumbies copped a
major blow in their last match, a win over the Waratahs, with their
influential fly-half Lealiifano breaking his ankle and I’m expecting his
presence to be sorely missed as the key link in the back line. The Canes
forwards had one of their better matches last week and should be able to
hold their own here, it's in the backs I expect the game to be won
though with the Canes brilliance shining through; I'm still shaking my
head that TJ Perenara did not make the All Blacks squad and I expect
he'll once again be a star performer for the home side. Pick - 3 units
on Hurricanes -5.5 or better point start
Crusaders -10.0 v Blues
4 at 1.85
The Blues finally came through for us
last week and covered the line against the dreadful Lions but I'm
expecting they'll be brought back to earth with a thud here against a
Crusaders side who suffered an upset loss to the Rebels last week and
who will be itching to take the field. The Blues have shown little
ability against well-structured sides (exception being Bulls match) as
they've been found wanting in nearly every facet of play and I expect
this match to be no different as the Crusaders dominate, securing the
majority of possession and turn their frustrations from last week into
points on the board here. With Dan Carter back at fly-half order will be
restored to the Crusaders backline and I expect this will be a big win
to the home side. Pick - 4 units on Crusaders -10.0 point start
(BEST BET)
Force to beat Rebels
4 at 2.04
?
The Force return home for this clash
following a tough few weeks in South Africa which has now seen their
losing streak extended to five games and they are essentially in a
battle here with a side many expected would come last in their
conference but who have surprised many, especially last week with their
win over the much favoured Crusaders. The Force have won just one game
away from home in their brief history and despite their recent form at
home it's a big call from the bookies making the odds so close here but
one which we will gratefully accept. Force captain Pocock is a champion
as is Nathan Sharpe and they're a more than capable side with plenty of
heart and the recent run of form will be hurting them, the last thing on
their minds will be surrendering in front of their home fans to the
Rebels and I'm positive we'll see a huge effort from all as they try and
lift themselves off the bottom of the conference table. Pick - 4 units
on Force to win
SUPER RUGBY - WEEK TWELVE
Blues -10.5 v Lions
4 at 1.98
+3.92
The Blues will get their best chance yet to
break their long and painful losing streak this week against fellow
cellar-dwellers the Lions and despite the Blues record I'm predicting
they'll get angry for this match and will cut loose in style. The All
Black side is set to be named shortly and a few of the fringe Blues
players such as Nonu, Weepu, and Williams will all be desperate to put
their hands up, they'll know that anything short of a startling
performance will see them cut from the AB squad. There's not much logic
behind backing the Blues as they've given us nothing all year but
sometimes you just have to back gut-instinct and my gut is telling me
they're a ticking time bomb and a big win is not far away.......in fact
it's right now! Pick – 4 units on Blues -10.5 point start
Hurricanes to bt Highlanders
2 at 2.30
+2.6
It's about this time last year the wear and
tear of the season started to catch up with the Highlanders and it
appears history is repeating with an injury toll that's mounting and
given they're just back from a tough trip to South Africa, where they
lost their last match to the Sharks, the Canes will step onto the field
with a degree of confidence and look to build on their comprehensive win
over the Blues last week. Last time these two side smet the Highlanders
narrowly won but teams have since cottoned on to their style and are
fighting fire with fire at the breakdowns and with Levave, Lowe and Vito
all looking good for the Canes in the loose they'll put up good fight in
this area and if they can secure close to half the possession we all
know just how dangerous the backline can be. I'm backing the x-factor
players of the Canes to win out over the structure of the Highlanders,
the home side are tired, battered and bruised and ripe for the picking.
Pick – 2 units on Hurricanes to win
Sharks -11.0 v Force
3 at 1.90
+2.7
The Sharks showed last week in beating the
Highlanders that they're not done with yet as they played to their
strengths and kept the ball tight, dominated possession and Lambie did
the rest in converting any kickable penalty chances and showed plenty of
maturity in controlling the game from fly-half. They will look to play a
similar game here against the Force who were unable to take advantage of
the weak Cheetahs attack and it's their offence that will once again let
them down here against the much stronger Sharks defensive line. The
Sharks are a real danger to any side playing in Durban and should cover
the line on offer here as Lambie will once again punish any
ill-discipline from the visitors. Pick – 3 units on Sharks -11.0 point
start
Reds to beat Chiefs
4 at 2.11
+4.44
The Reds showed some real fight last
week in narrowly losing to the Crusaders and have continued to show
improvement as the campaign has progressed, Ewan McKenzie will have
earmarked this match for a season defining performance from his side and
they are definitely capable of ambushing the high flying Chiefs. One
aspect of the Chiefs play that the Reds could target is the mauling from
line outs which proved effective for the Lions against them last week,
they'll also compete hard at the breakdowns which and slow the game
which they did well against the Crusaders. The Chiefs definitely have a
bad game in them and I can't help but feel they could be a tad flat here
against a Reds side that are on the up and looking to stay in touch with
the Australian conference sides. Pick – 4 units on Reds to win
(BEST BET)
2012 RECORD
WEEK
RESULT
STAKES
ROI
BEST BET
SUPER RUGBY ROUND 12
+13.66
13
105%
SUPER RUGBY ROUND 11
-2.60
10
-26%
SUPER RUGBY ROUND 10
-9.00
9
-100%
SUPER RUGBY ROUND 9
+8.06
11
73%
SUPER RUGBY ROUND 8
+3.84
12
32%
SUPER RUGBY ROUND 7
+1.66
12
14%
SUPER RUGBY ROUND 6
+2.73
14
20%
SUPER RUGBY ROUND 5
-2.45
14
-18%
SUPER RUGBY ROUND 4
+5.40
10
54%
SUPER RUGBY ROUND 3
-5.27
15
-35%
SUPER RUGBY ROUND 2
-1.40
9
-16%
SUPER RUGBY ROUND 1
-9.80
12
-82%
TOTAL
+4.83 units
141
3%
58%
PREVIOUS
RECORD
WEEK
RESULT
STAKES
ROI
BEST BET
2011
-4.57 units
194
-2%
57%
2010
+24.83 units
109
23%
60%
2009
+14.02 units
114
13%
71%
2008
+18.16 units
68.5
27%
N/A
RECORD
Click
here
to view our guru's full season history.
+3.92
RECORD
