with OnThePunt's resident Union guru
Updated 3:42 PM AEST, Thursday 27 May
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SUPER 14 - FINAL
Bulls v Stormers
NO PLAY
These two sides have been head and
shoulders above the rest of the in the Super 14 season 2010 and it came
as no surprise to see them both comfortably dispatch their opposition in
the semis – the Bulls beating the Crusaders and the Stormers thrashing
the Waratahs. Unfortunately we’re not going to have a play on this match
as the Bookies have priced it about right, the Bulls are rightfully
favourites at home and will be very very tough to beat but the Stormers
are capable, I’m just not sure how their scrum will bare up under
pressure from the Bulls, which could create issues for them, but with
this aside they’re relatively even - they both have a number of world
class game breakers, both are very well structured and both lack nothing
in intensity and desire. The Stormers defence is phenomenal but if any
side can crack it it’s the Bulls but again I don’t see this as a great
money earner as it could go either way. This has been another good
season of returns for OnThePunt followers and just because this is the
final I’m not about to have a stab in the dark and recommend you risk
your hard earned dollars on it – this column is about making money! I
hope you spend your winnings from the season wisely and I look forward
to having you back with us in 2011. Pick - no play
I'd like to publicly thank our Union guru for another stellar tipping
performance. I’m sure readers would agree - a simply stunning end to the
season. On behalf of the OTP team, many thanks and enjoy the off-season.
- OTP Editor
SUPER 14 - SEMI FINALS
Stormers -6.5 v Waratahs
3 at 1.89
+2.67
The Stormers comprehensively beat an under strength
Bulls side last week to secure this home semi final whilst the Waratahs
had an equally emphatic victory over a lacklustre Hurricanes side in
Sydney. This will be a whole different prospect though as they're facing
a side that has by far the best defensive record in the competition and
50,000 of their passionate fans behind them. The Tahs deserve their spot
here but I believe they were made to look a lot better than they
actually are last week as the Canes were simply dreadful, and with the
weight of possession the Tahs had in that match the winning margin
should have been a lot wider, they won't get half the opportunities here
that they enjoyed in that match. The Stormers boast one of the best
tight fives in the competition and a loose forward trio in Burger, Louw
and Vermeulem that is ever present, both on attack and defence and will
prove more than a handful for the visiting Australians. The home side
are simply going to be too good here as they dominate the set pieces,
shut down the Tahs offence and with the weight of possession I expect
the Stromers to have they'll keep the scoreboard ticking over. The
Bookies rightfully have the more experienced Stromers side as clear
favourites and I'm happy to back them to cover the line relatively
easily. Pick - 3 units on Stormers -8.5 or better point start
(BEST BET)
Bulls v Crusaders
NO PLAY
These two sides met just two weeks ago in what ended
up being a nail-biting win to the Bulls as they crossed the line in
extra time to steal the victory; that match was the last played by most
of the starting fifteen here as many were rested against the Stormers
last week, whether that was a good decision or not will remain to be
seen. There is a real air of uncertainty around the result of this
match, the unfamiliar ground in Soweto, where the Crusaders may actually
be well received, and the absence of powerful Bulls lock Bakkies Botha
following his four match suspension and add to this the travel the
Crusaders have had to do early in the week. I was tempted to back the
travelling Crusaders to win here but this Bulls pack is hard to go
against and the week off could well have done them a world of good, or
the opposite.....I don’t see this as a great one to risk your hard
earned cash on. Pick – no play
SUPER 14 - ROUND FOURTEEN
Crusaders -5.5 v Brumbies
3 at 1.91
+2.73
This match has become a quarter final following last weeks results that
saw the Crusaders narrowly beaten by the Bulls and the Brumbies
comfortable victors over the Highlanders. The Bookies have obviously
installed the Crusaders as favourites on their home turf but I was
expecting a shorter price on the home side given the strength of their
squad, their home ground record and the proven experience they possess
at the business end of the season. I've been waiting all season for the
Brumbies to put in a performance befitting of their squad but they've
yet to really deliver, the fact is their backline is half as potent
without the guidance of Stirling Mortlock and with him again out injured
here I just can't see them firing to the point where they're asking the
questions that are needed of this Crusaders defence. I can see some
tough early exchanges but as the match wears on and the Crusaders slowly
build a lead the visiting Brumbies will get frustrated and mistakes will
come. This won't be a complete blowout but it will be comfortable to the
Crusaders and they'll cover the spread. Pick - 3 units on Crusaders -6.5
or better point start (BEST BET)
Highlanders +12.5 v Reds
2 at 1.91
+1.82
The Reds hopes of semi-final action in 2010 came to an abrupt end last
week at the hands of the Hurricanes whilst the Highlanders were
comfortably beaten by the Brumbies. As bad as the Highlanders were last
week I'm still struggling to justify the very generous line they're
being offered this week by the Bookies, especially given the rebounding
nature of this side who are capable of beating the best, then losing to
the worst within the space of two weeks. The Highlanders have a very
healthy record against the Reds and with their coaching staff under a
weight of pressure following another lacklustre season they've got
plenty of motivation to finish on a high, especially following the
pathetic effort they put in last week. I'm not convinced we'll see the
Reds play to the level that we've become accustomed to in 2010 with the
wind leaving their sales given they're now out of the semi-final race.
Pick - 2 units on Highlanders +12.5 point start
SUPER 14 - ROUND THIRTEEN
Hurricanes -5.5 v Reds
2 at 1.91
+1.82
Both these sides come into this following
below par efforts, the Canes were fortunate in beating the Chiefs whilst
the Reds were not so lucky in being hammered by the Brumbies. The
Bookies have installed the Canes as favourites here which is more than
fair enough when you consider the mounting injury toll to the Reds, who
have this week added their star openside flanker Daniel Braid to that
list; the Canes are not unscathed in losing Smith at Centre but have
very ample cover with Tamati Ellison likely to fill his shoes. I get the
feeling with the Canes that we're about to see them really hit their
straps and match their early season favouritism with some action on the
field - they are choc full of experience in key positions and game
breakers and unlike last week they'll go into this game knowing they
have to be at their best to win. The Canes will have too much artillery
on attack for the Reds to hold back here and will have had an attitude
transplant after last weeks lacklustre performance and I expect will be
fully focused on a bonus point win, which the Reds won't be able to
stop! Pick - 2 units on Hurricanes -5.5 point start
Crusaders +9.5 v Bulls
3 at 1.92
+2.76
The Bulls continued on their winning
ways last week in beating the Sharks whilst the Crusaders were
uncharacteristically thrashed by the impressive Stormers in Cape Town.
The Crusaders are at a crisis point in their season and sit precariously
in third place on the points ladder and another loss here will see them
drop several rungs down. One thing about this Crusaders side though is
that they do not lack character and they are always up for a fight,
hence their impressive Super 14 title haul, and I am confident we'll see
a very good showing from them here as they run the Bulls off their feet.
Both these sides have named very strong line-ups but I see the key to a
possible Crusaders victory resting squarely on the shoulders of their
two world class players McCaw and Carter, who will rise here. The odds
are very juicy for the Crusaders to win but we'll resist that temptation
and stick with the very useful point start on offer to the visiting Kiwi
side. Pick - 3 units on Crusaders +9.5 point start
(BEST BET)
Blues 13+ v Lions
2 at 2.40
+2.8
The Lions are currently sitting last on the
points table with 11 losses and 0 wins to their name and a phenomenal
-224 point differential, whilst the Blues are all but out of the race
for a top four spot following their loss to the Cheetahs last week but
will throw everything into their remaining games to at least make their
season as respectable as possible. Having been nicely settled in the
Republic now for a few weeks and with a similar starting side to that
from last week I'm expecting a few combinations, particularly in the
Blues mid-field, to run a lot better here against a defence that's been
paper thin week-in and week-out and the tries will come for the visitors
at some regularity. Blues coach Pat Lam is a relatively inexperienced
coach at this level and he will be absolutely focused on getting this
side up for their remaining games as his career is also on the line -
this is going to be all one-way traffic as the class of the Blues run
rings around the woeful Lions. Pick - 2 units on Blues to win by 13+
Cheetahs to bt Force
2 at 2.01
+2.02
The Force continued their good late season
form last week in beating the woeful Lions whilst the Cheetahs accounted
for the Blues in one of their better performances of the season. The
Bookies can't separate these two sides and have them at even odds but
I'm happy to back the big Cheetahs pack to take it to the Force and come
away with the victory, led all the way by their inspirational skipper
Juan Smith whose presence on the field is immense. The last two matches
played between these sides in Bloemfontein have been won by the Force in
the narrowest of margins but I saw enough in their attitude and accuracy
last week, particularly on attack, to suggest they're not going to lie
down for the rest of the season. Cheetahs to win. Pick - 2 units on
Cheetahs to win
2010 RECORD
WEEK
RESULT
STAKES
ROI
BEST BET
SUPER 14 SEMI FINALS
+2.67
3
89%
SUPER 14 ROUND 14
+4.55
5
91%
SUPER 14 ROUND 13
+9.40
9
104%
SUPER 14 ROUND 12
+4.00
8
50%
SUPER 14 ROUND 11
-0.27
6
-5%
SUPER 14 ROUND 10
+1.33
11
12%
SUPER 14 ROUND 9
+6.54
6
109%
SUPER 14 ROUND 8
+0.22
8
3%
SUPER 14 ROUND 7
-4.16
8
-52%
SUPER 14 ROUND 6
+7.32
8
92%
SUPER 14 ROUND 5
-3.18
7
-45%
SUPER 14 ROUND 4
+1.61
8
20%
SUPER 14 ROUND 3
+6.29
5
126%
SUPER 14 ROUND 2
-2.27
8
-28%
SUPER 14 ROUND 1
-9.00
9
-100%
TOTAL
+24.83 units
109
23%
60%
PREVIOUS
RECORD
WEEK
RESULT
STAKES
ROI
BEST BET
2009
+14.02 units
114
13%
71%
2008
+18.16 units
68.5
27%
N/A
RECORD
Click
here
to view our guru's full season history.
2010 BRITISH OPEN
Tiger Woods 4.50
Lee Westwood 13.00
Phil Mickelson 15.00
P Harrington 17.00
Rory Mcilroy 17.00
Ernie Els 21.00
Ian Poulter 31.00
Adam Scott 34.00
Anthony Kim 34.00
Paul Casey 34.00
Martin Kaymer 34.00
Sergio Garcia 41.00
Jim Furyk 41.00
Geoff Ogilvy 41.00
Luke Donald 41.00
Retief Goosen 41.00
Hunter Mahan 41.00
Steve Stricker 41.00
Ross Fisher 41.00
G Mcdowell 41.00
+2.67
RECORD
