This is a match the Hurricanes simply have
to make big strides in, as their play last week was not up to the
expected standards of a serious semi-final contender. The big problem I
see for the Hurricanes is that when they do come up against a team with
a well structured defense they’re going to suffer from the 2003 ‘All
Black Syndrome’, where the touch-rugby style play and lack of general
organisation is going to play into the hands of the opposition. The
Force are a shrewd team, and with the win against the Chiefs last week,
will believe they can further improve on their decent away record in
2008 (they’ve won 4 from 6 games). The Hurricanes are just not settled
enough to predict with any certainty whether they will come out and win
by forty points, or lose by five, they are the team with everything to
play for, with the Force out of semi-final contention, but who knows
whether they can put aside last weeks error ridden, unstructured
display. I believe the Canes will win, but it’s not worth risking the
negative point start. Pick – No Play
Bulls vs Brumbies
NO PLAY
A little of the significance of this match
has been lost after the Brumbies were effectively knocked out of the
semi-final race by the Stormers (and Steve Walsh) last weekend. How the
Brumbies will back up, knowing that wave they were riding to the finals
has now broken, will be of interest, as they’re up against a Bulls side
who are playing like they have a real point to prove, even though they
too are out of the semi-final race. The Bulls are rightfully favourites
for this match, and should be too strong for the Brumbies in Pretoria,
but given their short price there’s not a lot of value; the point start
is bang on and could easily fall either side. Pick – No Play
Blues -7.0 vs Highlanders
2 at 1.91
+1.82
This is a match that both sides are always
up for, regardless of season standing, as the Gordon Hunter Memorial
Trophy is up for grabs. The Highlanders have been gutsy all season, and
have had a shot at every game (except the Bulls match), whilst the Blues
stumbling month of April was put to bed with a good win against the
Queensland Reds last weekend, meaning they still have a chance of making
the Semis. Emotions are going to be running high and I expect a tight
first half, but with the Blues having to win with a bonus point we’ll
see a bit more desperation from them, and another bonus point winning
display, as anything less will spell the end of their season. The
Highlanders have had to haul themselves back from the Republic this
week, and will be up against a Blues side who are fielding class players
right across the park, and have given the indication over the past
fortnight that things are clicking back into place. This is do or die
for the Blues and they should have to much class in winning beyond the
negative point start on offer from the Bookies. Pick – 2 units on Blues
-7.5 or better point start.
Crusaders -11.5 vs Reds
2 at 1.90
-2
Reds v The Crusaders have been doing
enough of late to secure wins, but not a lot more, and there is no doubt
Robbie Deans will have some concern at the lack of dominance he is used
to seeing this Crusaders side impose on the opposition. That said, the
Crusaders are still hot favourites to win the title, and it is in this
match (and next weeks) that Deans will be demanding improvement leading
into the semi-finals, which is going to make things tough for
Queensland. Queensland are missing experienced players, but do welcome
back Chris Latham, whose presence cannot be understated, but with the
semi’s looming, and a week of fine-tuning, I expect the Crusaders to
come out with their A-game and be too much for this Queensland side. The
Bookies have been generous to Queensland with the point start, but the
Crusaders will be out to remind all why they’re clear favourites for the
title and should cover it comfortably. Pick – 2 units on Crusaders -11.5
Chiefs -7.0 vs Lions
3 at 1.91
-3
The Lions, after what must seem like an
eternity, finally return home to Johannesburg this week, but
unfortunately for them they’re about to face a desperate Chiefs side
hurting from an 80th minute loss to the Force, which makes this game
into a make or break for them. Whether the Lions can raise the bar at
home or not will soon be seen, but all indications from their road trip
is that this is not an 80 minute side, and when it comes to attack they
are ordinary. There is no doubt the Lions will come out with a point to
prove in this match, desperate to put their unsuccessful Australasian
trip behind them, but the Chiefs have proven what a formidable side they
are this season (with the odd hiccup) and will just have way too much
class, experience and determination for the well traveled Lions. This is
going to be a match dominated by the backlines of both sides, and will
be high on entertainment, but unfortunately for Lions fans, it is not
going to make a pretty reading on the scoreboard – Chiefs to win well
and cover the negative point start. Pick – 3 units on Chiefs -7.5 or
better point start.
Sharks -13.5 vs Cheetahs
2 at 1.92
+1.84
The Sharks season has taken a nose dive
over the past three weeks, having started April unbeaten, they’re now
facing the very realistic chance of missing out on the semi finals, but
will be buoyed by the fact they’re now back home with a very winnable
game ahead of them against the languishing Cheetahs. I can see this game
only going one way, with the Sharks showing enough against the Crusaders
last week, in a close contest, to suggest they are not done yet. These
South African contests are often a chance for the superior team to flex
its muscles and with too much to play for the Sharks should punish the
Cheetahs and clock up the win. The Bookies have given the Cheetahs a
generous point start, but I have the feeling it won’t be enough to cover
the margin, against a Sharks side desperate to secure a healthy bonus
point win. Pick – 2 units on Sharks -13.5 point start.
Waratahs to bt Stormers
2 at 2.48
+0.48
The Stormers were fortunate last week with
some key decisions going their way against the Brumbies, and will be
concerned going into this match. I am pleasantly surprised at the price
on offer for the Waratahs here, as while the Stormers have been winning
of late, they’ve not done so in convincing style, whilst the Waratahs
have looked impressive, even in losing last week, for most of the
tournament, and will throw everything plus the kitchen sink into this
one. Short and sweet for this, I like the Tahs to win at the generous
price on offer, it’s not going to be by a large margin, but a win is
what they need, and a win is what they’ll get. Pick – 2 units on
Waratahs head to head
SUPER 14 ROUND 12
Sharks +12.5 vs Crusaders
2 at 1.97
+1.94
The wheels have fallen off for the Sharks
over the last two weeks, and they now face the toughest challenge of the
competition, playing the Crusaders in Christchurch. The Sharks are still
not able to field a fully fit side, with a few key injuries across the
park, most significant of which is their French playmaker – Frederik
Michalak, but they have been bolstered somewhat by the return of captain
Johann Muller, whose presence they’ve missed sorely in looking
pedestrian two weeks running. This Crusaders side is not playing their
best rugby (which is still good enough to beat most sides however) and
without Dan Carter the backline does not have the same attacking menace
to it. We can’t forget the Sharks earlier season form and dominance, and
with a few good wake-up calls, I believe we will see a return to the
clinical style of play, built on tough defense and good old fashioned
hard nosed forward play, which will see them get within the point start
on offer here. A loss for the Sharks will see their season precariously
placed, while the Crusaders are basically assured a home semi. Sharks to
throw everything at the home side in what will be a close match with the
Crusaders to edge it for mine, but it will be closer than the point
start on offer to the Sharks. Pick – 2 units on Sharks +12.5 point start.
Blues -5.0 vs Reds
3 at 1.99
+2.97
I saw enough in the Blues attack against
the Crusaders to suggest things are starting to click into place again,
and with the glimmer of hope still alive of making the semis, they will
be bent on putting in a bonus point winning performance against this
Reds side. With supporters and critics alike now writing off this Blues
season, they now have an element of pressure released from them, which
is a freedom that I am sure will see them remind all exactly why they
were one of the early season favourites for this competition. The Reds
lose John Roe for this one, joining other experienced campaigners Chris
Latham and Sam Cordingley on the sidelines, which is a significant part
of the leadership of this team. The key for the Blues is getting forward
dominance to provide quick ball for the classy backs to throw around in
space, if they achieve that, and I think they will, it is going to be a
convincing bonus point win to the Aucklanders, in what will be an
entertaining match. Pick – 3 units on the Blues -5.5 or better point
start.
Cheetahs vs Highlanders
NO PLAY
For a team full of so many players new to
Super 14, pooled from a player catchment area a quarter of the size of
most of the other sides in this competition, the Highlanders have
punched well above their weight in 2008, and can look back at the end
with bemusement at how close they came in so many matches, without quite
getting over the line. The Cheetahs will no doubt rue their poor
defensive effort thus far in 2008, conceding a mammoth 300 points
already, and it will be defense that has been a focus for them in the
lead up to this match, against a Highlanders side who has struggled on
the other side of the ledger – attack, in 2008. I just don’t see an edge
either way with this match with the point start on offer. I think the
Cheetahs will win, but it could be a penalty slotted in the dying
minutes that does it for them; and as the Highlanders have proven all
season, oppose them with the point start at your own peril. As I’ve said
before, this isn’t the forum to play guessing games with readers hard
earned cash; this could come down to a refs call late in the match, so I
recommend sitting back and watching, with wallet firmly in your back
pocket. Pick – No Play
Hurricanes vs Lions
NO PLAY
After what seems like an age, the
Hurricanes finally get to return home to the Cake Tin, against a Lions
side whose inability to put in a complete 80 minute performance has
really cost them on this trip to Australasia, and saw them again blow a
winning (or drawing at least) chance last week, letting in a Brumbies
try in the last minute of play. The Hurricanes are returning from the
Republic and will be reacclimatising for this match, while the Lions
have been in this part of the world long enough now they could almost
apply for citizenship, so I expect the home advantage to not be such a
big factor for the Canes. The Hurricanes are at their most unpredictable
in a match where they’ve been installed as such hot favourites, and
having a punt on this match is basically having a punt on what sort of
attitude and intensity they will show up with. Colin Cooper has stuck
with the young backline pairing of Willie Ripia and Zac Guildford for
the Canes, and how they back up after last weeks impressive performance
against the Cheetahs will be of real interest. It is a generous point
start on offer to the Lions, but if the Canes razzle and dazzle the home
crowd, double that amount might not be enough. We’re about to see the
best, or worst, of the Hurricanes. Pick – No Play
Force vs Chiefs
NO PLAY
Just a month ago the Force were looking
like the surprise package to make the semis, however with only one win
from their last four games, the semis are now out of their reach. The
Chiefs on the other hand have found another gear and everything that
this team has promised to live up to over the past few seasons seems to
finally be coming to fruition. If the Chiefs continue to perform to the
high level they’ve been playing at over the past few weeks, then they
will have too much firepower for the Force; this is the first of a
number of tough games away from home for them though, and I am happy to
sit back and see whether they can continue the tempo in a completely
different and unfamiliar territory (no chainsaws, cowbells and mullets
for starters), against a Force side who will still believe they can
finish second of the Aussie teams in this competition. Pick – No Play
Bulls to beat Waratahs
2 at 2.38
+2.76
Interesting game this. The Waratahs
continued on their ever impressive winning ways last week, casting aside
the Sharks and climbing to second on the ladder in the process; while
the Bulls on the other hand had the week to prepare for a match in which
they can attempt to seek further redemption from their fans for the
horror season they’ve had. We should not forget that this Bulls side,
with the odd change (Victor Matfield by far the most significant), is
the same side that won last years competition, and they reminded us this
in their last match against the Highlanders. This is not the ideal match
for the Waratahs to have fresh off the plane, and I believe the good
value on the Bulls is worth backing, at Loftus Versfeld and with a point
to prove, they will have too much emotion and hunger for this one. Pick
– 2 units on the Bulls head to head.
Stormers vs Brumbies
NO PLAY
The first thing that strikes me in
researching this match is the fantastic record the Brumbies have against
the Stormers, with only one loss (which was in 1998) in ten matches!
Statistics however can be an unwanted distraction, as the reality is
this Brumbies side is very different from the dangerous side that was
guided along by George Gregan/Stephan Larkham, and has gone from a team
of household names, to a team filled with relative newcomers to Super
Rugby this season. There is no doubt the Brumbies will feel they have a
good shot at this, with injuries to key Stormers players adding to their
confidence, but in reality they struggled to beat a bottom of the table
Lions side in Canberra last weekend, so one could not say with any
confidence they will beat the more highly rated Stormers in Cape Town,
even with the injuries to the home side. I think the Stormers will win,
but it just isn’t worth getting on the negative point start of 8.5, as
it would could be one or two points either side. Pick – No Play.
SUPER 14 ROUND 11
Blues +10.5 vs Crusaders
2 at 1.97
+1.94
I’ve been waiting for weeks now for the
Blues to click into gear, but the talented/charismatic machine that they
were early season has turned into a bumbling, error ridden outfit that
have looked anything but top 4 contenders over recent weeks. This game
is make or break for the Blues season, and after weeks of heavy
criticism this is a chance to show some spine, against a Crusaders
outfit that is not at full strength, and is guaranteed a semi final
spot. The Crusaders were soundly beaten last week and will obviously be
looking for improvement, but won’t have the same desperation as the
Blues, and I am happy recommending getting on them with the point start
on offer. I see a very hard fought battle with the traditional arm
wrestle that these two have, with the Crusaders edging it, but not by
much. The battle to secure loose ball will be of interest, and while
Ritchie McCaw is the worlds out and out top openside, he’ll be well
matched by last years outstanding NPC player in Daniel Braid; with
passion and pride on the line the Blues will make this very hard for the
home side. Pick – 2 units on Blues +10.5 point start
Brumbies vs Lions
NO PLAY
Where to begin with this Lions team, two
weeks running they’ve looked every bit competitive in the first half
(leading against the Crusaders at half time and tied with the Warratahs),
but have come out a different side in the second half, reminding all
watching why they are languishing on the bottom of the table. They’ve
come close with the point starts on offer two weeks running, but they
have proven to be unbackable with whatever start they’re given, as while
defense has not been too bad (in the first half at least), their try
scoring abilities are non-existent, with large forwards squandering
chances across the park, and backs who can’t hold the ball at crucial
times. The Brumbies have played with great passion and pride after the
defeat to the Chiefs and with Stirling Mortlock rejoining the team, the
backline will be firing on all cylinders. The Lions will be desperate to
earn some respect from the trip to Australasia, but with too much on the
line for the Brumbies I can’t see them making this one close, but
recommend holding onto your cash as even a 50 minute performance from
the Lions could see them sneak within the point start – too close to
call though. Pick – No Play
Chiefs vs Reds
NO PLAY
The Chiefs were outstanding against the
previously unbeaten Crusaders last week, and are rightfully hot
favourites for this clash, against an almost equally impressive Reds
team that put a boot into the Force’s play-off chances. Man for man the
Chiefs have a big advantage across the park with experience, and with
arguably the best attacking backline in the competition, should have
plenty of points in them for this clash. The Reds however have shown
some real attacking flare in their last few matches, and if they bring
the same level of intensity and passion they’ve shown of late to this
match, they could make things harder than expected for the Chiefs.
Again, it looks like the point start on offer is about right and in what
will be a high scoring match, I don’t see a clear edge either way.
Hopefully it’s a clear night in Hamilton, conducive to running rugby, as
both these teams have plenty to offer on attack, in what will be an
entertaining try-feast. Pick – No Play
Sharks HF/FT Doub. v Warratahs
2 at 3.50
-2
Looking at this match I can’t help but
sniff an upset, with the Sharks having looked every bit the dominant
side last week against a Brumbies side full of passion. The Sharks
completely shut out the Brumbies in the first sixty minutes of that
clash, and reminded all concerned why they were still unbeaten in the
competition; that was until some ill-discipline crept in, and with the
resulting sin-binning the whole match turned around, with the flow
completely shifting to the eventual winners the Brumbies. I have no
doubt coaches Muir and Plumtree will have the Sharks side up for this
match, in what could very well prove to be the decisive clash to see who
gets the vital home semi, and believe we’ll see their clinical style of
play shut the Tahs out of the match from the early stages. The Tahs have
looked very good, but I am waiting for the relative inexperience in the
backs to show through, and feel this will be the match that serves as a
speed bump in the momentum they’ve been gathering. Pick – 2 units on
Sharks halftime/fulltime double.
Cheetahs to bt Hurricanes
2 at 2.92
-2
The Hurricanes season is on the line in
this match, as a loss will see theml fall behind the pack of nine teams
vying for a semi-final birth. The Cheetahs kissed any chances of making
the semi-finals goodbye some weeks ago, they to however have a lot to
play for, and have had the bye week to do some soul searching and
planning for what I expect could be an ambush. I do not like the changes
that have been made to the Hurricanes (Gopperth, Collins (injured) and
Paku all out), especially at the pivotal five-eight position, with
Gopperth being replaced by the very inexperienced Willie Ripia, who the
Cheetahs will pressure all game which could seriously disrupt the
attacking opportunities for the Canes outside backs. The Cheetahs have
impressed with a number of performances this season, narrowly going down
to some very good teams on the road and I believe with the home ground
advantage, two weeks of wound licking, along with the return to the
starting line up of captain Juan Smith, they will cause the upset. Pick
– 2 units on Cheetahs head to head
Highlanders +14.5 vs Stormers
3 at 1.95
+2.85
The Highlanders felt the wrath of a very
determined Bulls side last week, and as a result of the heavy loss will
have had a week of soul searching and team talks, based around restoring
some pride, as prior to last week the Highlanders biggest losing margin
was 13 points, with some very tight margins of: 6, 2, 3, 4, 8, 13, w, 2
– all against quality opposition, so the point start on offer for them
here should have punters rubbing their hands together. The Stormers do
not have the fearsome home record that other teams in the competition
have (two wins from four games this season), and have been struck by a
viral infection this week, which won’t have helped with preparation. I
expect the Stormers to win, but for the Highlanders to have regrouped
after the big loss to the Bulls and to clock up another single digit
loss for the season. Pick – 3 units on Highlanders +14.5 point start.
SUPER 14 ROUND 10
Chiefs +7.5 vs Crusaders
2 at 1.91
+1.82
This is a season defining game for the
Chiefs, with their chances of making the semis pretty much hinging on
whether they can topple the unbeaten tournament favourites; they do
however have the home advantage, and the knowledge Dan Carter will be on
the sidelines, in their favour. The Chiefs have made one change from the
team that beat the Brumbies, with Sosene Anesi coming back to the bench,
which is in stark contrast to the Crusaders who have made four personnel
and seven positional changes from last week. With plenty of rain having
fallen in the Waikato district this week, and another wet one forecast
for Friday night, I see this being a very close and hard fought battle
(a good old fashioned arm wrestle) and really fancy the point start
being given to the Chiefs, and a possible first loss of the season to
the Crusaders. Pick – 2 units on Chiefs +7.5
Reds vs Force
NO PLAY
The Force’s chances of making the Semis
took a hit last weekend the moment Matt Giteau was stretchered off the
field, meaning he not only missed the remaining 55 minutes of that
match, but will also be on the sidelines for this one. The Reds’ chances
of making the semis are gone, but at home and with the incentive of
improving on last years ladder placing, they’ve still plenty to play for
and are going to make things very tough for the Force. If Chris Latham
had been taking the field I would be tipping Queensland at the inviting
odds, but without his x-factor, and with the fact the Force know a loss
will mean an end to their semifinal chances, I expect it to be a close
one, with no more than ten points in it. I favour the Force slightly but
recommend sitting back and watching this one without risking your cash.
No Play
Lions +17.5 vs Warratahs
1 at 1.95
-1
After such a promising start to last weeks
match against the Crusaders, the Lions quickly reminded us after the
break exactly why they are languishing on the bottom of the Super 14
table, with a 25 minute period that saw missed tackle after missed
tackle, dropped balls and ill-discipline. The Lions have made four
personnel changes for this match, and I expect the inclusion of
Springbok Jaco Pretorius, and Jano Vermaak at halfback to provide some
desperately needed spark; they showed us what they're capable of in the
first half against the Crusaders, and after a week of further soul
searching, I expect closer to an 80 minute effort, which I feel will be
enough to get them home with the point start. The Tahs have named an
unchanged side to that which beat the Force, and will win this match,
but not by the large margin the bookies are suggesting. Pick – 1 unit on
Lions +17.5 point start.
Brumbies to bt Sharks
2 at 2.06
+2.12
After an impressive win against a fading
Blues side, the Brumbies have set themselves up for a chance at the
semis, with every game now having to be played as if their season
depends on it, because it does. The Sharks on the other hand are
comfortably sitting second on the table, and do not face the same
pressure as the Brumbies do, which I feel is starting to shine through
in their general play, giving me the strong feeling that the unbeaten
streak is about to come to an end this week. The news that Stirling
Mortlock is to miss this game is a huge blow to the Brumbies, but this
has been countered to some extent by news that Springbok Jannie du
Plessis is out for the Sharks. At home, against a Sharks side that have
not won in Canberra since 1998, I feel the Brumbies have enough
motivation to get the win; I’ve also got the feeling the Sharks’ wheels
are starting to wobble slightly and they could be in for a tough lead up
to the semis. Pick – Brumbies head to head. Pick – 2 units on Brumbies
head to head.
Bulls -5.5 vs Highlanders
2 at 1.90
+1.8
The less said about the Bulls efforts last
week, and so far this season, the better. The impact of losing Victor
Matfield's leadership and all round presence cannot be overstated, as
other than his departure, there has been little in the way of
significant personnel changes to the team that won last years Super 14
title. There is no doubt this Bulls side will be completely psyched up
for this match, and I feel sorry for the Highlanders, as they're about
to face a team that will be laying everything on the line for a win, not
what you want fresh off a plane trip from New Zealand. The Bulls side
have coped an absolute hammering from fans, the Press and ex-players
this week, and I am confident they will put in a performance more
fitting of a defending champion team, with Bryan Habana getting across
for a few to lead a try scoring rout. Pick – 2 units on Bulls –5.5 point
start
Stormers vs Hurricanes
NO PLAY
With the impressive performance the Canes
put in last week, fresh off the plane from New Zealand, who would want
to bet against them making it two from two in South Africa; however this
Stormers side is a much tougher proposition to the lackluster Bulls
outfit they embarrassed. History is kind to the Canes in Cape Town, and
with some key injuries in the Stormers side, they'll fancy themselves,
however from a punters perspective, this Canes side has shown too often
that a good performance can be a prelude to a shocker; whilst I am not
saying this will happen, I would not want to risk readers hard earned on
it. This Canes side is overflowing with talent and experience and my
head is saying a good victory to them, but my wallet is grimacing in a
dark corner of the room. No Play
SUPER 14 ROUND 9
Highlanders vs Sharks
NO PLAY
The Highlanders showed us their best and
worst last week in notching the first win of the season, but did not
impress enough over the 80 minutes to have me racing for the bookies at
the good price on offer to beat the Sharks this week. The Sharks did
enough against the Hurricanes to maintain their unbeaten record, and
even with fourteen players managed to withstand the late charge, and in
doing so proved they will be equally as hard to beat on the road as they
were in the Republic. I just can't see an edge either way with this one;
the point start margins are fairly accurate. The result will be effected
by what sort of night it turns out to be in Dunedin, as so often the
weather down there dictates the style of the game – if it's wet and cold
this will suit the Highlanders in a low scoring/scrappy encounter – best
not to bet on the weather though! No Play.
Lions +24.5 vs Crusaders
2 at 1.91
-2
This is an interesting one, as I am loathe
to ever bet against the Crusaders burying a team at home, but having
seen the team that's been named, I am more than happy to recommend
getting on the very generous point start to the Lions. The Lions will be
looking to earn as much respect as possible from their trip to
Australasia, and showed enough for me last week to suggest they can get
home with the point start this week, against a Crusaders side that is
suddenly looking very inexperienced (with a few exceptions). I expect
the Crusaders to win, but for the Lions to do enough to keep it
respectable. Pick – 2 units on Lions +24.5 point start
Blues -9.5 vs Brumbies
2 at 1.91
-2
This shapes as an interesting match, with
both teams seasons hinging on the result (the Blues to a lesser extent),
and both teams having come off comprehensive losses last weekend. On
paper this is a good looking Blues side but they've been punching below
their weight in recent weeks, and will really target this game to get
their campaign back on track, and silence their critics. The press have
also been dining out on the Brumbies woes and there's no doubt they'll
come out a more determined side this week, but they do not have the team
across the park to win this one, and I expect a decent winning margin to
the Blues, in a high scoring encounter. Pick – 2 units on Blues -9.5
Force to bt Waratahs
2 at 1.90
-2
Great match-up this one, with the winner
rightfully taking the mantle of number one Australian team in the
competition. The Waratahs will definitely have their tales up after last
weeks very convincing showing against the Blues, with an excellent
effort across the park, signalling every intention to send off Ewan
McKenzie in style. The Force managed to win yet another very close one,
as they've done several times now, and proven again they now have the
maturity of a team that is ready for semi-final football. Both packs
will be wanting to supply their backlines with quick ball, in as much
space as possible, and while the Tahs were dangerous last week, I think
they'll find it harder both offensively and defensively against this
more experienced (and very classy) Force backline. This is the chance
for the Force to show how far they have come in two and a half seasons
and being installed as the underdog at home will further buoy them on,
and give readers a bit more spending money for next week. Pick – Force
head to head. Pick – 2 units on Force head to head
Cheetahs +12.0 vs Stormers
2 at 1.88
Void
This is an interesting one, with the
Stormers coming fresh off the Bye after their successful trip to
Australasia, and the Cheetahs with their tales up after notching their
first win of the season in convincing fashion against the Reds. The
Cheetahs have looked good in all but a couple of games this year, and
much like the Highlanders, have been unlucky not to have had one or two
close games go their way. The Bye can be a good momentum breaker, and I
suspect it won't have done the Stormers any real favours, coming up
against a Cheetahs pack that will look at every game now as a chance to
get further away from the bottom of the table. I think the match will be
closer than respective table positions would suggest, the Cheetahs are a
gutsy team, and while the Stormers do obviously deserve the favourites
tag, I like the generous point start the bookies are giving the
Cheetahs. Pick – 2 units on Cheetahs +12.0 point start
Bulls vs Hurricanes
NO PLAY
Nice and short for this one as I recommend
holding onto your cash. The Hurricanes are the underdogs and really need
to win this match, up against a no doubt tired and angry Bulls side, who
are back home after a frustrating trip to Australasia, where they lost
right at the death, two weeks running. Of all the places to play while
on the road, Pretoria is one of the toughest propositions for any
visiting team, but tough propositions are what can spark this Canes
team, full of class from 1 to 15. How the Bulls will react to being back
home and how the Canes will back up after last weekends irritating draw
is anyone's guess – sit on your wallets for this one. No play.
SUPER 14 ROUND 8
Highlanders -7.5 vs Lions
2 at 1.91
+1.82
Whilst the Highlanders have not yet
notched up a win this season, they have impressed with the amount of
heart they've shown in every game, and have not yet allowed any team to
walk all over them (maybe with the exception of the Chiefs). The forward
pack has a good amount of experience to it, and whilst the backs are
comparatively inexperienced, there are a number of young players new to
the Super 14 that have really impressed. This is the Lions first game of
the season outside of the Republic, and I do not expect the time away to
be filled with happy memories. Carisbrook is not the most enticing of
venues for visiting South African teams, and I have a very strong
feeling the Highlanders are ready to notch up their first win of the
season in style. I expect a dominant Highlanders pack to lay the
foundation for a big win, making the Bookies negative point start look
inviting. Pick: 2 Units on Highlanders –7.5 or better.
Chiefs to bt Brumbies
2 at 2.17
+2.34
This is looking like a good value game for
mine, the Chiefs have been tagged the slight underdogs (at least were
when this was being written) but showed enough last weekend to give the
impression they could make a real charge for a finals spot, having
shaken off the early season lethargy and started to play to their
capabilities. My only concern with this pick is the return of Stirling
Mortlock, as he is one of those players whose inclusion in any team all
of a sudden casts doubts over betting against his side – he's a
champion, and will no doubt lift this Brumbies side, but not enough to
get them home. Across the park the Chiefs have too much skill and
experience (and enough seasons of pain behind them for motivation!) to
win this one, and while I do not expect it to be a big win, it should be
a win nonetheless. I like the Chiefs head to head. Pick: 2 units on
Chiefs to win
Force vs Bulls
NO PLAY
After tipping the Force to go down last
weekend, I believe they will come out a hungrier and determined side
this week, knowing another loss here will erase the good start to the
season they enjoyed, but I saw enough in the Bulls side that came out
against the Blues to give me great concern tipping against them. The
Bulls have a forward pack that could really dominate the Force and lay a
good platform, but the Force backline is just too impressive and I can't
see them gotten the better of. The match will be decided based on the
style in which it is played, if the forwards dictate then we could see
the upset, but if the backs run the show then the Force to win well. I
am not willing to risk reader’s hard-earned cash on this one. No Play.
Hurricanes vs Sharks
NO PLAY
Where to start, the unbeaten Sharks versus
the Jekyll and Hyde Hurricanes, one team a measure of consistency, the
other a Tipsters nightmare. My simple advise is hold on to your cash for
this game, as I could almost write a Thesis on why not ever to bet on
the Hurricanes when they are starting a match as favourites (especially
at the Cake Tin), and whilst I am not saying they will lose, the outcome
will be determined by the level of intelligence and attitude they bring
to the game, something I do not fancy betting on. John Plumtree,
assistant coach of the Sharks, knows a number of these Hurricanes
players well (having coached the Wellington NPC side to two finals,
leaving in 2006) and being the very astute coach that he is, will have
hammered into his players the specific strengths and weaknesses each
Hurricane player presents, and ways to get the better of the team as a
whole. Let’s hope we see the best of both teams. No Play
Warratahs vs Blues
NO PLAY
With news during the week that this is to
be Ewan McKenzie’s last season coaching the Warratahs, this match could
be a defining point of the legacy he leaves behind. Of all the seasons
he has been coaching the Warratahs, this current team is arguably the
least experienced, providing him with his biggest challenge to date.
With a finals spot well within their grasp, this game will either spell
the beginning of the end for the Warratahs, or a potentially courageous
journey to those finals. The Blues are in a slightly more comfortable
position, but this game also shapes as being a defining point of the
season for them. On paper there is no argument the Blues have the
stronger of the two sides, but given some of the stumbling performances
they’ve put in at home of late I am hesitant to tip them away at Sydney,
in what is not generally a happy hunting ground for visiting teams. The
coaching issues could send NSW one of two ways, which way will be clear
after this game. No Play
Cheetahs v Reds
NO PLAY
The Reds were impressive last week against
the unbeaten Sharks, and if it wasn’t for some great defense, could
quite easily have come away with the upset win. This week is another
very tough game on the road, against a Cheetahs side that will be very
relieved to be back home, after their venture to Australasia saw them go
winless, but a number of the performances did impress, and they can
consider themselves very unlucky not to have come away with a win. The
Cheetahs will be desperate to get a win under their belt and will have
targeted this game from the early rounds, while the Reds showed last
week they are not fazed by playing in South African conditions, and will
be more than a handful for the tired Cheetahs. I am not convinced the
Cheetahs will recover from all the travel they’ve done over the last
month, and the morale sapping close defeats they’ve suffered, they do
however welcome back Springbok lock Barend Pieterse, and Captain Juan
Smith has also recovered from injury and will get a run off the bench,
leaving me in two minds as to the outcome. No Play.
SUPER 14 ROUND 7
Hurricanes +8.5 vs Crusaders
2 at 2.04
+2.08
Hurricanes to bt Crusaders
0.5 at 3.38
-0.5
What a treat to start the round off, the
2006 finalists getting to square off at the Cake Tin, the invincibility
of the Crusaders versus the maturing and unpredictable Hurricanes. It
would be a brave man to predict the Crusaders will be beaten by any team
this year, especially at near full strength, with the dynamic duo of
Carter and McCaw both playing. However, as will no doubt prove either a
master stroke (or a suicidal mistake in my first ever pick with this
column), I am backing the Hurricanes with the positive point start, with
a cheeky half unit on the Canes head to head. The Crusaders will believe
they can tackle the Canes into submission and dine out on the inevitable
mistakes, however Colin Cooper will surely know this and I very much
doubt (Hope even - knelt down with clasped hands looking skyward) that
they focus on a smart game plan and put the ball through the hands when
appropriate, and not whenever they have it. In Gopperth and Weepu the
Canes have a great kicking game, and the loose forwards to win plenty of
50/50 ball. These are countered by the brilliance within the Crusaders
side, but man for man, at home, and in the right mood the Hurricanes
should certainly get there with the point start, and it's worth a half
unit on the head to head. Decision: 2 Units on Hurricanes +8.5 point
start; and 0.5 unit on Hurricanes head to head
Waratahs vs Cheetahs
NO PLAY
This is an interesting one, the Cheetahs,
with the exception of the heavy defeat to the Crusaders, have not
performed too badly on the trip to Australasia. This Waratahs outfit,
while not as strong as previous seasons, still have the potential to
bury a team, and the outcome is going to really depend on how much the
Cheetahs are up for this game, because I have no doubt the Tahs will be
fired up at home, and like the inclusion of Norton-Knight at Fullback. I
have a strong feeling this game will be closer than the Bookie margins
are suggesting, but I would not dust the wallet off for this as I am not
sure whether the Cheetahs side that ran the Chiefs so close in Round 4
will turn up, or the side that were demolished in the 2nd half against
the Crusaders. Decision: No pick
Stormers +8.0 vs Force
2 at 1.96
+1.92
Stormers to bt Force
1 at 3.12
+2.12
This has all the makings of an excellent
contest, two very evenly matched teams, both having just come from New
Zealand with two very convincing showings. The Stormers ran the Blues
very close last week, while the Force continued to impress with another
gutsy, hard fought win over the Highlanders. With Nathan Sharpe
celebrating the significant milestone of 100 Super games, and the Perth
locals sure to turn up in numbers, they are going to be very hard to
beat. Performing with your backs to the wall and starting hot favourites
are two different things though, and I believe this will favour the
experienced, gritty Stormers, who have proved to be very good travellers
this year. The Stormers are too good for the point start they're being
given. Decision: 2 units on Stormers +7.5; and 1 unit on Stormers head
to head.
Auckland vs Bulls
NO PLAY
There is no doubt Nick Evans' return will
be a huge boost for the Blues, after a number of indifferent
performances in his absence, his key decision making and general brain
for the game was sorely missed, and with the team looking close to full
strength, the Blues are justifiably hot favourites for this match. The
Bulls have looked decidedly average on their campaign away from home and
seem to be missing the leadership and character of Victor Matfield
immensely this year. I have no doubt the coaching staff and senior team
members will have held some form of crisis meeting this week, but it
won't be enough to change their fortunes, however I would not risk the
large negative point start to the Blues, as they will win, but there's
the chance of the Bulls making it harder than expected. Decision: No
pick.
Chiefs -7.5 vs Highlanders
2 at 1.92
+1.84
Not the most enticing of games I'm afraid,
if the home crowds these two teams have been attracting is anything to
go by then this could be officially the most uninteresting game of the
round. The Chiefs welcome back Kahui and Sivivatu, creating an even
larger gulf of experience between the two backlines. While the
Highlanders have been brave this year with a team full of players new to
Super 14 rugby, this game could be where it all goes wrong, and I am
predicting a decent winning margin to the Chiefs. Decision: 2 units on
the Chiefs with -7.5 point start.
Reds +14.5 vs Sharks
3 at 1.90
+2.7
This is one of those games for mine that
could be a lot closer than respective table standings would suggest. The
Reds received a good kick up the bum after their Round 4 display against
the Stormers and have come out looking a much better side as a result.
The win against the Bulls showed the skill and determination this team
can display with their backs against the wall, but it was last weeks
Draw against a Lions team absolutely desperate to get a win, that
impressed me the most. There are players in both codes (Rugby and
League) that can single-handedly effect ones mindset as a Punter when
they are on the field, Queensland have two of these in Latham and
Schifcofske, both of whom are champions that will heavily influence this
game. The Sharks have had a perfect start to the season, but the Bye can
do funny things to teams, and I believe the result will be close,
therefore the point start to Queensland looks a good bet, I won't quite
go so far as to say Queensland will win, but if they did I would not
fall off my chair, stick to the point start though. Decision: 3 units on
Queensland +14.5 point start.
+1.82
-2
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