The Crusaders win over the Stormers
last week must go down as one of the most courageous efforts of any side
in Super Rugby history when you take into consideration all the
adversity they've faced this season and it's obvious they are on an
emotional journey that I'm convinced will end in glory this week. Last
time these two sides met the Crusaders suffered some bad calls from Stu
Dickenson which led to them narrowly losing, that result will still be
fresh in the memories of the players and will just be one of many
motivating factors for them here. Credit to the Reds for comprehensively
disposing of the Blues last week but this week is a much tougher
challenge and the Crusaders will execute a game plan around shutting
down Quade Cooper and limiting the Reds time and space, something the
Blues failed to do, and will lay the platform in the set pieces where
they've been outstanding all season. It's fitting that this game will
determine whether we end the season in profit or loss and what better
side to place one's faith in in such a situation than the Crusaders -
get on this champion side to cover the narrow line. Thanks to all the
OTP Union followers this season, see you again in 2012. Pick - 4 units
on Crusaders -4.5 or better point start (BEST
BET)
SUPER RUGBY - WEEK TWO FINALS
Blues +5.5 v Reds
2 at 1.95
-2
The Blues will be stoked they've drawn the Reds in Queensland for this
semi-final, as opposed to having to face the Stormers in Cape Town, and
will be confident of coming away with the upset win against a side
that's not too dissimilar in style to themselves. The break the Reds had
last week won't have done them any favours as they have not been playing
their best footy over the past month or so and another game would have
given them a chance to address any issues, instead they're carrying them
into this match against a Blues side that's worked hard in winning their
past two matches. The Reds great season to date has come off the back of
the enterprising play of their star fly half Quade Cooper so it does not
take a brain surgeon to work out that he will be heavily targeted by the
Blues who will make him work hard on defence by sending runners his way
from set pieces and broken play, and will also limit the time and space
he has with the ball by rushing up on defence. The Blues backline will
look to reduce their error rate from last weeks win over the Waratahs
and once they start stringing some phases together will be very hard to
contain. The Blues have a good amount of experience throughout their
squad and won't be overawed by the occasion, the same can't be said of
the Reds, and I like the visiting Kiwi side to at the very least get
within the point start on offer from the Bookies. Pick – 2 units on
Blues +4.5 or better point start
Stormers to beat Crusaders
3 at 2.15
-3
The Crusaders machine marched on last week and destroyed a hapless
Sharks side but they face a much tougher task here, playing in South
Africa against a very well-drilled Stormers side. If this match was to
be played in New Zealand then I'd be backing the Crusaders all the way
but with the travel they've done during the week, not to mention the
disruptions they've faced all season, one can't help but feel that it
will all catch up on them here against a well-rested Stormers side who
will front up defensively and shut down the Crusaders backline through
their characteristically strong defence. The Crusaders do welcome back
McCaw for this match but there's an injury cloud hanging over Reid whose
loss would have a huge impact on the side as he's been outstanding all
season. The gaps in the opposition defensive lines that the likes of
Williams and Fruan have been finding all season won't exist this week
and as they look to create chances then the error rate will mount and
the Stormers will capitalise. The Stormers will certainly not look to
win this playing attractive razzle-dazzle rugby but will keep it tight
and grind their way into Crusader territory and look to camp there.
There won't be many tries in this match but the Stormers will convert
territory and possession into points as the match wears on against what
will be a tiring Crusaders side. Pick – 3 units on Stormers to win
(BEST BET)
SUPER RUGBY - WEEK ONE FINALS
Blues -8.5 v Waratahs
4 at 1.85
+3.4
The Blues have both the luxury of
home ground advantage and of playing a Waratahs side that’s struck down
with injuries to some key players – most notably their first choice
halfback/flyhalf combo of Burgess and Barnes, they are however going
into this fresh off a very comprehensive win over the Brumbies and won’t
be short on confidence. The Blues also go into this off the back of a
good win over the Highlanders and will be buoyed by the confidence their
backline played with which should again be a feature this week as nearly
every one of them is in the spotlight for a possible All Blacks spot.
This will be an arm-wrestle up front as both packs are pretty even but
the more experienced combo of Mattiewson and Brett for the Blues could
well prove the difference as they lead the impressive Blues backline on
numerous attacking raids that the Tahs will struggle to contain as the
game wears on. The Bookies have given the Tahs a decent start but the
Blues will be switched on here and cover it. Pick – 4 units on Blues
-8.5 point start (BEST BET)
Crusaders -13.5 v Sharks
3 at 1.94
+2.82
The Sharks have had to travel all the way
from the Republic following their very hard fought win over the Bulls, a
match that will have taken a lot out of the tank of their players and
along with the travel burden I’m not expecting this side to be at 100%
here, which will spell trouble for them. The Crusaders have had the
luxury of playing their last few games under lights in cold, damp,
slippery conditions that will be very similar to the conditions for this
match and they’ll once again control the match from the set piece, will
play for territory and defend like their lives depend on it. One can’t
help but feel the Sharks played their ‘final’ last week and will find
the going very very tough here against a near full strength Crusaders
side. The bookies have given the visiting South African side a big point
start but the Crusaders will cover it as the points mount up as fatigue
takes it toll. Pick – 3 units on Crusaders -13.5 point start
SUPER RUGBY - ROUND EIGHTEEN
Blues 13+ v Highlanders
2 at 2.10
+2.2
The Blues have never lost five matches in a
row in any super season and are in good shape to avoid that this week
against a Highlanders side that's low on confidence and who are looking
a shadow of the team that started this competition so strongly. The
Highlanders have been found wanting on attack of late and are short of
options in the back line when confronted with an uncompromising defence,
as they'll meet here, and even if they can get parity up front they'll
still be no match for this classy Blues back line. The Blues are not
short of motivation as it's crucial they enter the finals with some
confidence behind them and have talked up this game all week as being
crucial to their semi-final chances and I'm confident we'll see a huge
lift in attitude and intensity here as they move the ball around with
pace and unsettle the Highlanders defence. The line is not big enough
for the Highlanders and the Blues should cover it. Pick - 2 units on
Blues to win by 13 or more points
Chiefs -1.0 v Reds
3 at 1.92
-3
The Chiefs looked short of a gallop last
week in drawing to the Hurricanes but with this being the last match
together for so many of their squad we'll no doubt see a huge lift here
as they look to end their time together on a big high against a Reds
side that's coming off two of its least memorable matches of the season.
The Chiefs have once again been the perennial underachievers of the NZ
franchises, with consistency once again being a big issue for them, but
when they're on, they're really on and this match is also the last
chance for a number of their squad to push for higher honours in the All
Blacks and I really like them to come away with the upset win. The
battle of the forwards should be relatively tight but it's in the backs
that the Chiefs will cause headaches for the Reds defence as the likes
of Leonard, Donald, Muliaina and Sivivatu will all be on their game
which would spell trouble for any defensive line in the competition. I
like the Chiefs to fire and end this disappointing season on a high.
Pick - 3 units on Chiefs -1.0 point start
Crusaders -7.5 v Hurricanes
4 at 1.92
-4
The Hurricanes have not shown
anything on attack of late that would indicate they'll pose any real
issues for this Crusaders defence, whilst the Crusaders play with such a
degree of structure and intensity, week in and week out, that their
opposition are simply strangled out of the game. Despite a relatively
bright last three weeks all is still not well in the Canes squad and I
can't see them lifting to anywhere near the level that will be required
to compete with this Crusaders machine. Structure will be the key to a
Crusaders win here and as the Canes get frustrated through lack of
penetration on attack they'll revert to the side we all know so well and
start throwing some miracle balls around which will lead to mistakes and
Crusaders points. Dan Cater will put on an exhibition of class for his
opposite Cruden as he makes the most of the front-foot ball he'll be
receiving all night. This will be a comfortable win to the Crusaders as
they dominate every facet of play. Pick - 4 units on Crusaders -7.5
point start (BEST BET)
SUPER RUGBY - ROUND SEVENTEEN
Chiefs -4.5 v Hurricanes
4 at 1.91
-4
The Canes have now won two in a row
but against opposition of questionable quality and they're not looking
like a side that's anywhere near on top of their game, whilst the Chiefs
on the other hand are playing the best rugby of the season which last
week saw them beat the fancied Blues away from home. The Chiefs back
line is unquestionably one of the more dangerous in the competition,
when they're on their game, with the main question mark being over their
forward pack which seems to have turned a corner and are now holding
their own and they'll get the better of this Canes pack. The Chiefs
forwards will create plenty of front-foot ball for the dangerous back
line to work with and will see the likes of Leonard, Kahui and Sivivatu
again stake strong claims for an All Black spot. This will be one-way
traffic for the Chiefs and they'll cover the line on offer from the
bookies. Pick - 4 units on Chiefs -4.5 point start
(BEST BET)
Brumbies -10.5 v Rebels
3 at 1.91
+2.73
After some promising victories earlier in
the season the Rebels season is close to free fall which was evident in
last weeks huge loss to the Stormers, this match will not be any
different either, up against a Brumbies side that will be looking to
maintain the level they set in beating the competition leaders the Reds
last week in Brisbane. The Brumbies owe their loyal home fans a big
performance and with what's been a disappointing season they at least
have the chance to put on a show of strength here. The Brumbies managed
to hold the high-flying Reds to just one try last week and the Rebels
will struggle to better that, whilst Giteau will again orchestrate the
back line to good effect and make the Wallaby selectors take note. The
Brumbies will be too strong in every facet here and will cover the large
line on offer to the visiting Rebels. Pick - 3 units on Brumbies -11.5
or better point start
Sharks -8.0 v Lions
4 at 1.92
-4
The Lions face the unenviable task of
having to play an in-form Sharks side that's vying for a finals spot and
having to do so following the long journey back from New Zealand earlier
in the week. The Sharks will win this off what I expect to be a
suffocating defensive effort and a dominant forward display - two
aspects of their play that is coming to the fore as the season
progresses, and with the Lions questionable defense, which was again on
display in their loss to the Canes last week, it won't take much for the
Sharks back line to make inroads and for the score to mount up. Only one
of these sides hopes are still alive in 2011 and I expect this to be
evident in the attitude and intensity from the Sharks on the field and
for them to come away with a very comfortable victory. Pick - 4 units on
Sharks -8.0 point start
SUPER RUGBY - ROUND SIXTEEN
Hurricanes -12.0 v Lions
3 at 1.92
-3
Neither of these sides has shown any real
consistency in 2011 and both are languishing in the bottom end of the
table but both have shown improvement of late and go into this fresh off
a win. The Canes are overdue for a blowout performance and with a number
of their stars in the likes of Nonu, Smith, Jane, Weepu and Hore all
running out of time to impress the All Black selectors I'm backing the
cream to rise to the top here and I like the Canes to cover the large
line on offer. The Lions game is suited to an opposition who are more
inclined to grind out a win and their defence is susceptible to an open
running opposition offence such as the Canes and once the early blows
are landed by the Canes the holes will open and the score will mount.
Take the Canes to cover the line here. Pick - 3 units on Hurricanes
-12.5 or better point start
Waratahs +9.0 v Bulls
4 at 1.95
+3.8
The Waratahs will be better off for
their run last week against the Sharks and even though they lost they
still looked good, only giving away the lead late in the match. The
start here from the bookies to the visiting Australian side is too good
to pass up as they'll be nicely settled into South Africa now and won't
be put off by the hostile environment of Loftus Versfeld, having endured
the cauldron of Kings Park Stadium last week. The Bulls are playing a
style of rugby where they're grinding out wins through their impressive
forward pack but the Tahs backline could have the edge over them and as
long as their forwards can get some sort of parity up front then this
match will be a very hard fought one, with not many points between the
two sides. Get on the Tahs with the generous point start. Pick - 4 units
on Waratahs +9.0 point start (BEST BET)
Brumbies +16.5 v Reds
4 at 1.91
+3.64
The Reds confirmed they're the real deal
last week with their very hard fought win over the Crusaders, they'll
have to be careful this week though against a much improved and
determined Brumbies side full of a number of dangerous players. The
point start to the Brumbies is too good to pass up and I'm very
confident we'll see a surprisingly close match here as the visitors have
nothing to lose and knocking over the table topping Reds is not beyond
them, especially when you cast an eye over the side they've named. That
win over the Crusaders on Sunday will have taken a lot out of the Reds
and they'll struggle to lift mentally to the same level. This could well
be a boil over, or at the very least a close one! Pick - 4 units on
Brumbies +15.5 or better point start
SUPER RUGBY - ROUND FIFTEEN
Hurricanes 13+ v Force
3 at 1.70
-3
With finals hopes now gone for both these sides in
2011 they'll be looking to salvage respect in the remaining games but
it's the Canes who I expect will be the more desperate here on home turf
and with some key personnel back in Smith and Jane, they'll be too
strong for the visitors. The Canes have shown improvement in the second
half of their season and with the side they've named here I expect a
dominant performance, particularly from the backs, which will see them
run out easy winners. Pick - 3 units on Hurricanes to win by 13 points
or more
Bulls 13+ v Cheetahs
3 at 2.35
-3
The Bulls have finally clicked into gear and are
playing the type of rugby that lead them to several Super titles, their
latest win coming against a decent Sharks side away from home. The
Cheetahs are playing good rugby too but there is a gulf between these
sides and whilst the Cheetahs have points in them against lesser
opposition defence they'll struggle to breach the Bulls line and the
Bulls forwards will be a lot tougher than what they've come up against
of late, all culminating in a heavy defeat to the visitors. This will be
one-way traffic to the Bulls who have the advantage of experience,
talent and the Loftus factor all in their favour and win this easily.
Pick - 3 units on Bulls to win by 13 points or more
Sharks -4.5 v Waratahs
4 at 1.82
+3.28
Sharks coach John Plumtree has spelt it out very
plainly to his side that they must win all of their remaining pool
matches to have a chance at the play-offs and will have identified
plenty of areas of improvement from last week’s loss to the Bulls. The
Tahs are still injury hit with their captain Phil Waugh still being the
most notable absence and they'll find this trip to the Republic very
tough without a full strength side, particularly this match against a
fired up Sharks outfit. Short and sweet here, Plumtree will have his
side on notice and they'll respond with the type of all-round effort
that characterised their early season domination. The Durban crowd will
be right in behind their side who will get the victory and cover the
line here. Pick – 4 units on Sharks -4.5 point start
Crusaders -1.0 v Reds
4 at 1.91
-4
The Reds face their toughest test here against the best
side in the competition who will relish this opportunity to prove
themselves against the best Australian side in the competition. Whilst
the Reds have certainly impressed this year a large number of their
matches have been against average opposition and they'll be found
wanting somewhat here once the flash and dash of Cooper is shut down and
the forwards start going backwards. The Crusaders do not have their best
available side this week but any side with Carter and McCaw in it is
going to be more than formidable for any opposition and with the support
they have around them this trip to Brisbane will be a successful one as
they come away with the win and cover the narrow line. Pick - 4 units on
Crusaders -2.5 or better point start (BEST BET)
SUPER RUGBY - ROUND FOURTEEN
Stormers +7.5 v Blues
2 at 1.85
+1.7
The Blues came home with a wet sail against
the Reds last week but left it too late and now face the prospect of
having to play a shell shocked Stormers side who themselves looked for
all money to be in for an easy win against the Chiefs at half time but
dropped the tempo considerably in the second half and lost the match.
The Stormers have a few key players out of their backline through injury
but have still named a very good side that has not had the bounce of the
ball go their way of late but they'll be targeting this match to turn
their fortunes around against a Blues side that will be vulnerable to
the Stormers suffocating defence and physical forward play. The bookies
have the Blues as favourites but the visiting South Africans will be
very tough opposition this week, even with the injuries, and will
dominate possession and frustrate the Blues, ensuring at the very least
this is a nail-biter. Pick - 2 units on Stormers +6.5 or better point
start
Chiefs +10.0 v Crusaders
4 at 1.93
+3.72
The Crusaders have been hit hard by
injury and are without a large number of their usual starting XV here,
adding to that they’ve had to travel back from South Africa earlier in
the week, they’re playing their ‘home’ game in the North Island and to
cap it off they’re facing a Chiefs side that’s fresh off their best win
of the season – a courageous come from behind victory over the Stormers.
The Chiefs backline will prove to be a handful for their Crusader
opposites and their forward pack have shown considerable improvement of
late which makes this a potential thriller of a match and I like the
point start on offer to the Chiefs. Pick – 4 units on Chiefs +8.5 or
better point start (BEST BET)
Waratahs -16.5 v Lions
3 at 1.91
+2.73
The Lions were made to look good last week
by a very average Brumbies side (who played one of their worst games in
recent memory) and will be back to their losing ways here against a
strong Waratahs side that's fresh off the bye and will capitalise on the
Lions woeful defence, covering the generous point start on offer from
the bookies. The Tahs have the second best defence in the competition
and will hammer the Lions into submission as the visiting South Africans
find the going much tougher here against a side that has ground to make
up on their competition rivals for a shot at the play-offs. The Tahs all
the way here. Pick - 3 units on Waratahs -16.5 point start
Rebels +17.5 v Cheetahs
3 at 1.94
-3
With their first match in South Africa now
behind them the Rebels have had the extra week to acclimatise for this
clash and they’ll have learnt a lot from their thrashing at the hand of
the Bulls and be much better prepared this week. The Cheetahs go into
this fresh off a gutsy and hard fought win over the Crusaders, a match
that will have taxed them somewhat, and they’ll struggle to rise to the
same level of intensity here and it won’t all be one way traffic as the
line from the bookies suggests. The Rebels have named a side that is not
short on experience, when compared to the Cheetahs, and will find the
opposition a little easier this week and the atmosphere less foreboding
and I’m liking them to get within the point start on offer. Pick – 3
units on Rebels +17.5 point start
SUPER RUGBY - ROUND THIRTEEN
Highlanders to beat Hurricanes
4 at 2.06
+4.24
The Highlanders have lost some ground in
their quest to make the 2011 play-offs but are still miles in front of
the Hurricanes who sit bottom of the New Zealand sides and don't look
like improving on that. Dispite a few injuries the Highlanders still
have the perfect chance here to steady the ship and get back to winning
ways, their game plan in 2011 has been based around a full effort from
all fifteen players on the field and they have a squad who all know
their jobs and are ready to step in at any time, as they showed in
fielding a severely depleted side yet still beat the Crusaders a few
weeks back. The Canes get Weepu and Nonu back from injury for this but
neither will have a huge impact as the Highlanders will stop everything
that's thrown at them and grind the Canes down, forcing them to play
high risk rugby and make mistakes which the home side will most
definitely capitalise on. The Highlanders traditionally lift in
Invercargill and I expect them to dominate the Canes set pieces, win the
possession stakes and limit the Canes attacking opportunities. I'm very
surprised by the even money on offer from the bookies and recommend
getting on the Highlanders. Pick - 4 units on Highlanders to win
Brumbies 13+ v Lions
3 at 1.80
Luxbet
-3
The Lions were dreadful last week and
embarrassed by the Cheetahs on home turf and will be inviting prey for
the Brumbies who are finally back at home following an unsuccessful road
trip. The Lions defence and discipline have been sadly lacking and they
will find the going a lot tougher now they're away from the Republic,
especially given their poor record on the road over recent seasons. Matt
Giteau will lead a dominant Brumbies backline and make the most of the
weak Lions defence, whilst their forwards should also have the upper
hand and the Lions will transgress as they become frustrated, which will
further add to their woes. This will be a very big win to the home side.
Pick - 3 units on Brumbies to win by 13+
Bulls -24.0 v Rebels
4 at 1.91
+3.64
The Bulls showed some ominous signs
in their last match, a comfortable win over the Chiefs where they looked
much more like the 2010 champions, and they'll be hoping that match is
the turning point for their season as they look for another bonus point
win here over a very vulnerable Rebels side. The Rebels will struggle to
rise to anywhere near the level required to compete with the Bulls at
Loftus, where many much better sides have been embarrased, and there is
no way the Bulls will pass up the chance to flex their muscles in what
will be a huge victory to them. The bookies have given the Bulls a large
line to cover but they will easily do it as they dominate every single
facet of this match. Pick - 4 units on Bulls -24.0 point start
(BEST BET)
SUPER RUGBY - ROUND TWELVE
Hurriances +5.0 v Blues
3 at 1.90
-3
The Canes win over the Reds will give them
plenty of confidence going into this clash and they're confident that
victory marked the turning of a corner in their season - this clash is
the perfect chance for them to prove that and as they're once again the
underdogs with the bookies they're being given a point start that is
well worth backing given the liklihood of this being a very close
result. The Blues are also high on confidence having completed the
cleansweep of NZ teams following their victory over the Highlanders last
week but clashes between these two sides are always fiercely contested
and I'm confident the Canes have a forward pack capable of matching the
Blues and a backline that'll once again ask plenty of questions. The
Blues injury toll continues to mount with Toeava ruled out for the
season, he's been their star performer and his presence will be sorely
missed. The Canes have only made the one change from the side that beat
the Reds with Kirkpatrick slotting into inside-centre and I like the
home side to once again pull off the upset or at the very least make it
a nail-biter. Pick - 3 units on Hurricanes +5.0 point start
Lions to beat Cheetahs
3 at 1.97
Luxbet
-3
The Cheetahs have been up and down this
season whilst the Lions have generally been down, with the worst record
of any Super XV side, but that does not tell the full stroy of their
season as they've shown vast improvement in 2011 under coach John
Mitchell and have lost a number of very close matches. This match offers
the Lions the chance to show just how far they have come and with
defence not being a big feature of either of these sides play we should
see a high scoring match and I'm happy to back the home side to come out
on top as they've played some of their best rugby at home this year and
have stepped up against their fellow South African sides. They're
certainly good enough and do not lack the motivation for a big one here
and I'm happy to back the Lions for the win. 3 units on Lions to win
Chiefs -2.5 v Highlanders
4 at 1.92
+3.68
The Chiefs will be anything but happy
sitting bottom of the New Zealand sides in the competition and will be
out to prove they're better than that this week up against a Highlanders
side that many had pencilled in at the start of the season for the
bottom spot. The Highlanders have been playing a brand of rugby that is
highly effective but predictable and chiefs coach Ian Foster will have a
plan up his sleeve to unsettle them and will be looking for more from
his star studded backline who have played well on home soil but have let
themselves down on the road, they are also bolstered this week with the
return of All Black Mills Muliaina. The bookies have these sides as even
but if the Chiefs really come to play, which they most certainly will,
then the Southerners wil struggle with the intensity of the home side as
they establish a lead and don't look back. The Chiefs are much better
than their record this year suggests and have a number of gamebreakers
who have a point to prove which spells real danger for the Highlanders,
but is great news for you hard working punters as this is certainly a
gimme that you should not pass up. Pick - 4 units on Chiefs -2.5 point
start (BEST BET)
SUPER RUGBY - ROUND ELEVEN
Blues -2.0 v Highlanders
3 at 1.92
+2.76
This will be a very good test of the Blues finals credentials - away
from home and up against one of the form sides in the competition who
are fresh off a shock win over the clear competition favourites. The
Highlanders threw everything into last weeks effort and I would be a
little surprised if they were to again be at 100% this week following
that match, whilst the Blues had a relatively light workout in thrashing
the Rebels and will be fresh and ready to go here. The Blues have the
stronger of the two sides and will have added motivation having received
the news during the week from Kurtis Haiu that he's been diagnosed with
bone cancer, which I'm sure will bind the side together even more as
they put in the extra effort for their mate. There will be no surprise
factor for the Highlanders here as Blues coach Pat Lam will have his
side ready for battle and he'll have drilled into them a carefully
thought out game plan that they'll stick to with good success. Pick - 3
units on Blues -2.5 or better point start
Waratahs -9.5 v Rebels
4 at 1.87
+3.48
The Waratahs will be fuming having blown a good chance to beat the Reds
last week after getting the better of them up front but failed to
convert the pressure into points and will be happy to vent their
frustrations on a Rebels side that is defensively vulnerable and won't
have anywhere near the power to match the Tahs scrum. Last time these
two sides met was in Melbourne where the Tahs thrashed the home side and
whilst the Rebels have made improvements since then so too have the Tahs
who will be looking for nothing short of a comfortable bonus point win
here - which they'll get. The line is nowhere near large enough for the
Rebels and the Tahs will cover it easily. Pick 4 units on Waratahs -9.5
point start (BEST BET)
Bulls -5.0 v Chiefs
3 at 1.88
+2.64
The Bulls finally return to Loftus following a dreadful trip down-under
and they're facing an uphill battle to get a shot at defending their
title with bonus point wins a must, starting here. The Chiefs scrapped
past the lowly Lions last week but will find this environment at Loftus
a lot more hostile and they'll be up against a much more determined and
physical Bulls side who will be confident of a return to form at home.
The Bulls forward pack could cause a world of trouble for the Chiefs
here whilst their back line, having been starved of tries, will be
licking their lips here and be buoyed by the dominance from their
forwards. The Chiefs will struggle for points against a fired up Bulls
defensive line and they're facing a one-sided scoreboard here. Pick - 3
units on Bulls -5.5 or better point start
SUPER RUGBY - ROUND TEN
Blues -21.5 v Rebels
3 at 1.87
-3
Despite the fact they came away with a bonus point win over the Waratahs
last week Blues coach Pat Lam will be less than satisfied with how his
side let them back into the game and will be looking for a complete
shut-out here with a full 80 minute effort. The Rebels defence has been
a problem for them all season and will again be an issue for them here
up against one of the most dangerous attacking sides in the competition.
This is only the second game the Rebels have played outside of
Australia, their first ending in a 28 point defeat to the Chiefs in
Hamilton, and they're likely to face a similar fate here, if not worse,
as the Blues will dominate every facet of play and unlike last week the
home side will not let their foot off the oppositions throat once
they've established a good lead. Pick - 3 units on Blues -21.5 point
start
Waratahs +5.0 v Reds
3 at 1.91
+2.73
Having won their last 7 matches in a row the Reds have the rear tag of
favourites going into this clash of states but they'll have to be at
their best once again to beat a Waratahs side that is welcoming back
from injury captain Phil Waugh, No. 8 Palu and Inside Centre Carter - 3
key players who will provide a huge boost. Last time these two sides met
was round two when the Tahs ran out 30-6 victors and despite the two
sides relative standings on the points table the Tahs will again be
confident they have the edge over the Reds and have the talent to match
and really test the dangerous Reds backline. Cooper and Genia will have
more pressure on them here than they've had for a while as the Tahs look
to disrupt their impressive combination with Cooper in particular being
watched like a hawk by the Tahs defensive wall. The Tahs have the skill,
intelligence and motivation to win this or at the very least make it a
nail-biter and I like the point start on offer from the bookies. Pick -
3 units on Waratahs +5.0 point start
Bulls -2.5 v Force
4 at 1.91
-4
The Force overcame a pretty average Brumbies side last week whilst the
Bulls had a huge battle with the Reds and came off second best, this
match will be much more to their liking though as they’ll be confident
of containing the rather limited Force offence and will feel they have
the measure of them in the forwards. The Bulls trip down under has not
been good with just the 1 win from 3 matches so far and they’ll throw
everything into this match looking to shut the Force out of the game
through field position gained from Steyn’s boot and some good old
fashioned mauling anywhere near the Force try line. The defending
champions have plenty of ground to make up on the points table and will
use all their skill and experience to come away with the clinical win
here. Pick – 4 units on Bulls -3.5 or better point start
(BEST BET)
SUPER RUGBY - ROUND NINE
Chiefs +10.5 v Crusaders
3 at 1.85
-3
The Chiefs have had the luxury of a bye to
reflect on the opening half of the season and plan for an attack on a
finals spot but have their work well and truly cut out for them here
against a Crusaders side that is looking every bit the competition
favourites. The Crusaders are still without Dan Carter for this but do
welcome back McCaw to the bench, whilst the Chiefs get Muliana back from
injury who will add some much needed spark to the backline on both
attack and defence. The Chiefs midfield pairing of Kahui and Sweeney
(with Umaga to come off the bench) will be better equipped defensively
to handling the size and power of Williams and Fruin than most other
sides in the competition and they have the offensive nous to even get
the upper hand on their opposites and truly test their defensive
abilities like not many other sides have managed thus far. This will
take a herculean effort from the Chiefs to win and they'll be only too
aware that the forwards will have to play a blinder but they do have it
in them and with their season at a crossroads there's absolutely no
shortage of motivation. It's a big point start the bookies have given
the home side and I like them to get within it. Pick - 3 units on Chiefs
+10.5 point start
Blues -6.0 v Waratahs
3 at 1.91
+2.73
The Blues impressive start to the
season could be undone here if they're not able to come away with a win
over a side they're likely to be jostling with for a spot in the finals
but I'm confident they'll be more than up for this clash and continue on
with their brilliant form at home where they're unbeaten in 2011, which
includes a win over the Crusaders. The Waratahs go into this fresh off a
big win over an unimpressive Force side but this is a much bigger
challenge which they have to face without a number of their top players,
including their very influential skipper Phil Waugh who is once again
out injured, and they simply don't have the depth to sufficiently cover
the lost personnel. The Blues will once again look to play the game at a
decent pace and utilise the class they have out wide by spreading the
ball every opportunity they have and the Tahs will struggle to contain
them and stop the flow of points. The Blues will dominate the visiting
Waratahs up front, lead superbly once again by Mealamu, and with the
classy Blues backs receiving good front foot ball the score will mount
and the Blues will easily cover the small point start the bookies are
giving to the visitors. Pick - 3 units on Blues -7.5 or better points
start (BEST BET)
Bulls +7.5 v Reds
2 at 1.92
-2
Bulls/Bulls HF/FT Double
1 at 4.75
-1
The Bulls were embarrassed last week by a
very dominant Crusaders side but I'm confident they’ll bounce back here
and get their campaign back on track against a Reds side that's just
back from the Republic where they continued their winning ways last week
in beating the Stormers. The Bulls will play to their strengths here and
try and dominate possession by keeping the ball in their star studded
forward pack, who have a point to prove after being dominated last week,
as they'll feel this is where they have the edge over the Reds and once
that little battle has been won then Steyn will control play through his
kicking game which last week was well below what we've come to expect
from the classy fly half. The Bulls season is on the line here and up
against what could be a travel weary Reds side I'm backing the defending
champs to fire right from the kick-off. Pick – 2 units on Bulls +6.5 or
better points start and 1 unit on Bulls/Bulls halftime/fulltime double
SUPER RUGBY - ROUND EIGHT
Bulls +9.5 v Crusaders
3 at 1.91
-3
The Bulls finally clicked into gear last
week in beating the Hurricanes and reminded all of the fact they're the
defending champions and they certainly have the talent and power to
execute a winning game plan here against an under-strength Crusaders
side that's without two of the best players in the world in Dan Carter
and Ritchie McCaw. Whilst the Crusaders style has been highly effective
to date in 2011 they have had the huge benefit of drawing on Carters
cool head and rear skills to run the backline and without his presence,
up against a very strong defence, they'll struggle for organisation and
the tries will dry up. The Bulls will compete all the way here and in
what will be a relatively low scoring match the 9.5 point start given to
them by the bookies is very appealing. Pick - 3 units on Bulls +9.5
point start
Force +7.5 v Waratahs
4 at 1.80
-4
The Force will be smarting following
their one-point loss to the Rebels last week on home turf and will be
well and truly up for this clash, with the underdog tag suiting them
just fine. The Tahs played a game of two halves last week in beating the
Chiefs, they looked briliant in the first half then fell apart in the
second, scraping through with an unconvincing win, and it was certainly
no coincidence that their sudden drop in intensity came when Phil Waugh
left the field, who they'll be without for this match. The Force have a
tough forward pack that will certainly feel they owe their fans a
special performance this week and once the engine room is functioning
well then the reshuffled backline will be tough to stop. The bookies
have given the Force a 7.5 point start but there's no way they'll have
their guard down two weeks in a row and I expect them at the very least
to run the Tahs very very close. Pick - 4 units on Force +7.5 point
start (BEST BET)
Stormers -8.5 v Reds
3 at 1.92
-3
The Stormers are playing a very tough style
of rugby built on rock solid defence and very physical play at the
breakdowns, along with very solid set pieces and a smart backline that's
not trying to over-play its hand every time they receive the ball and I
can't see any side other than a full strength Crusaders really
challenging them at the moment. The Reds have been impressive of late,
winning four on the trot but this is their greatest challenge and their
stylish offence will be made to look ordinary against the near
impenetrable Stormers wall. Short and sweet here, the bookies have
obviously favoured the Stormers but the point start to the Reds is not
large and they'll cover it with ease. Pick - 3 units on Stormers -8.5
point start
SUPER RUGBY - ROUND SEVEN
Waratahs -5.0 v Chiefs
2 at 1.90
+1.8
The Waratahs put their disappointing loss
to the Cheetahs behind them last week with a hard fought win over the
Brumbies and I'm confident they'll take another step towards redemption
this week against a Chiefs side that's lacking in confidence following a
close loss to the Blues last week. The Chiefs simply do not have the
decision making smarts on attack and are making too many errors in
general play, not to mention how dreadful their line-outs continue to
be, and the Waratahs will punish them here as they turn the weight of
possession into points through their talented back line and tough
forward pack. It's pretty brief here, the Tahs will be too strong up
front and will be too clinical as they step up again in defence and
control the game from the kick-off. The Bookies have rightfully favoured
the Tahs but the line to cover is not big enough and they'll get there
with ease. Pick - 2 units on Waratahs -5.0 point start
Blues -22.5 v Cheetahs
3 at 1.82
-3
Whilst the Blues ground out the win over
the Chiefs last week in poor conditions there's no way coach Pat Lam
will be overly pleased with the match and will look for big improvement
here against a Cheetahs side fresh off a huge loss to the Reds where
their defence was paper-thin and up against this very talented Blues
side I expect a similar result as the big South Africans are again run
off their feet from the outset. This is a perfect chance for the Blues
to come away with the bonus point win, they'll look to spread the ball
and play to their strengths in an open and fast paced game. The line is
huge for the home side to cover but there's no quick fix for this
Cheetahs defence when the conditions are conducive to running rugby and
the Blues are going to clock up a big win. Pick - 3 units on Blues -22.5
point start.
Hurricanes -2.5 v Bulls
2 at 1.90
-2
Despite the fact they beat the Lions last
week the Bulls are still looking a shadow of the side that won the
competition last year and they're going to be up against it here, facing
a Hurricanes side that is absolutely desperate to get the win and put
their embarrassing loss to the Rebels last week behind them. The Canes
have held crisis talks this week and their coach Mark Hammett has
demanded more from every player, they certainly have the talent and
experience in their side to beat any other on their day and will be out
to turn the season around here, or else face the reality that they won't
be playing finals footy in 2011. We'll see a much more committed defence
from the Canes this week and a return to basics on attack as they look
to take advantage of a Bulls side that's had to travel from South Africa
during the week and adjust to playing away from the Republic. Look for
the senior Canes players in Hore, Nonu, Jane and Smith to lead the way
here as they have copped the brunt of criticism during the week and with
players from other New Zealand franchises vying for their All Black
spots I expect their class to shine through here under pressure. The
Bookies have favoured the Canes and I expect them to cover the
relatively slim line on offer as they dramatically lift their intensity
and attitude. Pick - 2 units on Hurricanes -5.5 or better point start
Sharks to bt Stormers
3 at 2.15
-3
The Stormers go into this match as
the only unbeaten side in the competition which they've achieved through
a totally uncompromising defence; they did show last week in their win
over the Force though that they've got plenty of tries in them but they
will find the going much tougher here. If there is any side right now
that can derail this Stormers juggernaut, other than the Crusaders, it
is the Sharks who will be desperate for a win here and whose coach John
Plumtree in very well educated in Super rugby and South African rugby
and will have a clear game plan as to how to decode this Stormers
defence, and with a huge Durban crowd behind them I'm sure we'll see
some hometown heroics here. Pick - 3 units on Sharks to win
(BEST BET)
SUPER RUGBY - ROUND SIX
Hurricanes 13+ v Rebels
2 at 2.10
-2
Both these sides were soundly beaten last
week but only the Canes can really take any positives from their match
as they at least competed strongly with the Blues for 60 minutes, but
once Hore was sin-binned it all fell apart for them; the Rebels on the
other hand were outclassed from the start and never in their match
against the Reds. I’m confident the Canes will step up here, their
senior backline stars in Jane, Nonu and Smith will be frustrated by the
lack of tries scored in 2011 and are sure to make the most of the weak
Rebels defence, whilst Hore will be a man on a mission and will lead
what will be a dominant forward pack and make amends for last week. The
Canes are favourites here and the Bookies have given the Rebels a large
point start but the visitors will cover it. Pick – 2 units on Hurricanes
to win by 13+
Blues -1.0 v Chiefs
3 at 1.91
+2.73
The Blues really stepped up and
showed their class in thrashing the Hurricanes last week whilst the
Chiefs scraped past the Sharks in a try-less and poor quality match that
they were fortunate to win following countless handling errors and
terrible decision making but lucky for them the Sharks were even worse.
The leadership of Blues skipper Kevin Mealamu is having a huge impact on
the side and I expect him to again lead by example here as the Blues
forward pack will dominate up front and once again provide plenty of
quality ball to Matthewson and Brett who were again very impressive
against the Canes. The Chiefs decision-making with ball in hand has been
woeful and I expect more of the same here as the Blues defence again
steps up. The bookies have slightly favoured the visiting Blues but
they’ll cover the slim line with ease. Pick – 3 units on Blues -2.5 or
better point start (BEST BET)
Reds -15.5 v Cheetahs
3 at 1.90
+2.7
The Cheetahs shocked everyone last week in
thrashing what was a very very poor Waratahs side on the day but rather
than get carried away with that win I’m backing the Reds, who themselves
are coming off a very large win over the Rebels, to bring them crashing
down to earth here. The signs are good for the Reds with their forwards
competing well in the set pieces and general play and with Genia and
Cooper looking in ominous form, along with Ioane in the Centres, they
are in a good position to collect another bonus point win here. The wet
conditions suited the Cheetahs containing style of play last week but
the forecast for this match is good and the dry pitch will definitely
favour the Reds more open style of play as they run the big South
Africans off their feet. This will be a big win to the home side and
they’ll easily cover the Cheetahs point start. Pick – 3 units on Reds
-15.5 point start
SUPER RUGBY - ROUND FIVE
Chiefs to beat Sharks
2 at 1.89
+1.78
The Sharks, whilst unbeaten, have not set the world on fire and were
fortunate to come away with the win last week over the Rebels, this
match promises to be much tougher for them against a Chiefs side that
controlled their match last week against the Canes but still came away
with the loss. The encouraging sign for the Chiefs last week was the
return to form of both Donald and Leonard, and I expect a continuation
of that here as the Chiefs backline is looking more and more dangerous
on attack with each passing round. My main area of concern in backing
the Chiefs is around their ability to contain the Sharks forward pack
but they too showed last week they've taken big steps since game one of
the season and I expect them to be up for the challenge, particularly
Scott Waldrom who is one of the form blindsides and his pace around the
field is invaluable. The Chiefs are slight outsiders with the bookies
but I really like their chances to come away with the win here as they
offer more on attack than the Sharks and are starting to hit their
straps as a team, they know that even though we're only in round 5 that
a loss here will seriously jeopardise their chances of finals footy for
2011. Pick – 2 units on Chiefs to win
Blues -2.5 v Hurricanes
3 at 1.92
+2.76
The Blues stole a late draw with the Force last week but will be
treating that result like a loss and be looking for some dramatic
improvement here against a Hurricanes side fresh off a rather scratchy
win over the Chiefs. The Blues will have it over the Hurricanes in a
number of areas, their tight five will have the ascendancy in the set
pieces, the likes of Braid and Kaino will step up in the battle of the
loosies, which will give Matthewson and Brett quality ball to work with,
and it’s in that area, the half-back/fly-half combo, that the Blues
certainly have the wood on their opposition in Keats and Kirkpatrick
(with Cruden having been dropped to the bench). I like the look of this
2011 Blues side, they will be frustrated by their inconsistent
performances to date but I am very confident we will see them at their
best against an uninspiring Canes side. Pick – 3 units on Blues -3.5
or better point start (BEST BET)
Waratahs -18.5 v Cheetahs
2 at 1.91
-2
The Cheetahs go into this match as one of only two winless sides left in
the competition and that’s not about to change here against a fresh
Waratahs side who, apart from the one hiccup against the Crusaders, have
looked very sharp and are boosted here by the return of big number 8 -
Palu, who is certain to make an impact. The Cheetahs have struggled with
their offence in 2011 and we could well see another try-less game from
them here against a well organised and uncompromising Tahs defence. It’s
pretty brief for this match, the Tahs will play the game at a pace that
the Cheetahs will struggle with and the points will pile up against the
visiting South Africans whose resolve on defence will weaken as the
match wears on and it’s going to get ugly for them. Pick – 2 units on
Waratahs -18.5 point start
SUPER RUGBY - ROUND FOUR
Crusaders -15.5 v Brumbies
4 at 1.92
+3.68
The Crusaders took about 20 minutes to click into gear last week against
the Waratahs but once they did it was an avalanche as they piled on the
points, led by a devastating scrum and finished off by the very
formidable midfield pairing of Fruan and Williams, and I expect an even
more dominant performance here against the weaker Brumbies who are fresh
off a loss to the Reds. There’s not a whole lot to say about this match
other than the fact the Crusaders are going to dominate every facet and
score a very large win. The Bookies have given the Crusaders a very
large line to cover but such will be their dominance I wouldn’t be
surprised if they had surpassed it by half time. Pick – 4 units on
Crusaders -15.5 point start (BEST BET)
Stormers -5.5 v Highlanders
3 at 1.91
+2.73
The Highlanders continue to defy expectation and now find themselves 3
from 3 following their win over the disappointing Bulls last week, no
side will be taking them lightly anymore though and this week the
Stormers will be ready and waiting for a tough battle. Following their
scratchy win over the Cheetahs last week Stormers captain Jean de
Villiers has called on his side to really lift their game against the
Highlanders and I for one believe we’ll see them back to their best here
– they have the same characteristically strong defence of 2010 and are
not far off clicking offensively. Just like the Bulls were, this
Stormers side is notably stronger on paper than the Highlanders, but
unlike the Bulls the Stormers will not be taking the visitors lightly
and the Highlanders will struggle offensively against the very physical
and well organised defence. The bookies have finally taken note of the
Highlanders and subsequently the line for the Stormers to cover is not
large, I’m confident they’ll do it with relative ease. Pick – 3 units on
Stormers -5.5 point start
Force +9.5 v Blues
2 at 1.82
+1.64
The Force have been given a decent point start here following their big
loss to the Sharks last week and in light of the Blues classy win over
the Lions, the Force however had to play most of that match with only 14
men and I’m not ready to write their chances off here based on that
effort, even given the loss of their star flanker Pocock. The Force will
compete with the Blues in the set pieces and led by Nathan Sharp in the
line-outs they may even have the upper hand in that department; it’s in
general play that the Blues will fancy their chances and the Force
defence will have to be well and truly aiming up, followed up with
numbers to the breakdown to slow down the Blues ball, which I believe
they’ll do with good effect. This will be closer than the line suggests
and I’m happy to back the home side to keep it close – take the point
start on offer to the Force. Pick – 2 units on Force +9.5 point start
SUPER RUGBY - ROUND THREE
Crusaders -3.5 v Waratahs
2 at 1.91
+1.82
Needless to say this match will be a very emotional one for the
Crusaders following the devastating earthquake that has seen this match
moved from Christchurch to Nelson, they are not only a champion side but
a side of champions though and I believe we’ll see all that emotion
channelled in the right direction here as they look to give their
supporters something to smile about. The Tahs have been the pick of all
sides in the competition to date with two very convincing wins over the
Rebels and Reds, but even with the Crusaders disrupted preparations it’s
still a very bad time to be playing them and the task has been made a
whole lot harder with the injury to their star fly half Berrick Barnes,
who joins number 8 Palu on the sidelines, not to mention the fact their
captain and flanker Phil Waugh is carrying an injury into the game. The
Crusaders have named Sonny-Bill at inside centre to make his first Super
XV start and will certainly keep the Tahs defence guessing with his
unorthodox style. It will be tough for the Tahs to match the tempo of a
Crusaders side who will fight tooth and nail for every bit of possession
and every inch of territory and unfortunately for the visiting
Australians they’re going to be in for a very long night. Pick – 2 units
on Crusaders -3.5 point start
Blues -2.5 v Lions
2 at 1.92
+1.84
The Blues were a tad rusty in their loss to the Sharks last week but
they’ll be better prepared for this clash following a settled week in
Johannesburg and will no doubt look to open the game up here and play to
their strengths on what will be a dry and fast Ellis Park pitch. Credit
must go to the Lions with their turnaround in attitude and form under
new coach John Mitchell, they’ve been a tad unlucky in narrowly losing
their first two matches of 2011 though and could struggle to pick
themselves up again for this match. It’s nice and brief for this – the
Blues classy loose forward trio will have the measure of their Lions
counterparts and having won the battle of the breakdown the Blues
backline will be supplied with plenty of ball, which means points a
plenty for the visitors. Pick – 2 units on Blues -2.5 point start
Chiefs -12.0 v Rebels
3 at 1.90
+2.7
The Chiefs are 0 from 2, playing well below their best in the two away
losses to the Brumbies and Highlanders, they have a great chance here
though to get maximum points at home against a Rebels side on a high
following last weeks win over the Brumbies but who still have a number
of areas in their game they need to improve on. Even in their two losses
the Chiefs have shown glimpses of what we know they’re capable of,
particularly on attack, but they keep coming undone with poor ball
security which they’ll have focused on during the week and once they
start to string the phases together against this Rebels side, whose
missed tackle count is through the roof, then the tries will definitely
come. This is the Rebels first ever Super XV away game and they’re going
to get a rude awakening about how tough this competition is when playing
on the road. The line from the bookies is large but I expect the Chiefs
to cover it in style. Pick – 3 units on Chiefs -12.5 or better point start
Bulls -14.0 v Highlanders
3 at 1.91
-3
The Highlanders are faced with the unenviable task of playing the
reigning Super Rugby champions in Pretoria, arguably the toughest place
to play at of all the competition venues, they’re also having to do so
following a disrupted week of travel to the Republic, then having to
adjust to the new environment. Both these sides are unbeaten following
the opening two rounds but the Bulls will be far from happy with the way
they’re playing, knowing they’ve got plenty of improvement left in them,
whilst the Highlanders on the other hand have played to their capacity
and stuck to their strengths in forward play, led superbly by Adam
Thompson. When you line these two sides up against each other there is
an obvious gulf of talent and experience between them and I’m confident
we’ll see that reflected on the scoreboard here as the likes of Spies,
Botha and Matfield lead the way in a dominant forward display, whilst Du
Preez and Steyn will orchestrate what will be a dominant back line. The
inexperienced Highlanders back line are going to struggle to make
inroads here against a strong Bulls defence and the visiting Kiwi side
is going to be on the wrong end of a lopsided scoreboard. Pick – 3 units
on Bulls -14.0 point start (BEST BET)
SUPER RUGBY - ROUND TWO
Chiefs -3.5 v Highlanders
2 at 1.92
-2
The Highlanders got their season off to the perfect start last week in
beating the woeful Hurricanes, whilst the Chiefs blew several certain
tries in losing narrowly to the Brumbies in Canberra, but in the process
showed just what they are capable of should those passes start to stick.
These two sides have very different strengths – the Chiefs have a
backline packed full of speed and talent but were shown up in the
forwards last week, whilst the Highlanders strength is in the forwards,
with a relatively inexperienced and unproven backline. The Chiefs are
the pick here for me, they would have worked especially hard on their
set pieces this week, they’ve given Isaac Ross his first start following
the line outs debacle against the Brumbies and once they get the
possession stakes up then the backs will weave their magic and ask
questions of the Highlanders defence, something that the Hurricanes did
very little of last week. The Chiefs have made several positive changes
to last weeks side and won’t miss this chance to secure full points
against a side they will feel they have the measure of. Pick – 2 units
on Chiefs -3.5 point start
Rebels +14.5 v Brumbies
4 at 1.80
+3.2
The Rebels jumped out of the blocks last week and looked the goods….for
about 10 minutes….but once the smoke from the pre-match fireworks had
cleared so to did the Rebels resolve and the Waratahs started to pile on
the points, blowing out to a 43-nil win. The Rebels have made changes to
their starting side for this clash with the experienced Mark Gerrard
returning from Japan to slot in at fullback, Julian Huxley moving to
inside centre and Cooper Vuna shifting out to the wing, with Danny
Cipriani set to start at flyhalf – all positive moves in my eyes. Credit
to the Brumbies for beating the Chiefs last week but they were flattered
by the result and won’t get the same amount of assistance from the
Rebels this week as the home side looks for redemption from their fans.
I’m confident we’ll see a more physical display from the Rebels forwards
here and if they can provide plenty of good ball to the classy backs
then this game will be wide open. The Bookies have gone way overboard
with the Rebels underdog status and have given them a huge point start
which I very strongly recommend you dust that wallet off for. Pick – 4
units on Rebels +14.5 point start (BEST BET)
Sharks -2.5 v Blues
2 at 1.87
+1.74
Much and all as I really like the Blues chances this year and was
impressed by their win over the Crusaders last week I just can’t see
them being at 100% following the long trip to South Africa, especially
given the hard fought nature of that win over the Crusaders. The Sharks
on the other hand cruised to a win over the Cheetahs in a fairly
unattractive match played in the wet, they did get a chance to show off
their strong forward play though, crossing for two tries from some
impressive rolling mauls. Poor weather again this week would play into
the Sharks hands but either wet or dry they’ll be into this match with
all the power and resolve one comes to expect from them when playing in
Durban, especially with the strong side they have named. The Bookies
have rightfully favoured the Sharks here but the line for them to cover
is small and offers good value. Pick – 2 units on Sharks -3.5 or better point
start
SUPER RUGBY - ROUND ONE
Thanks for joining me again for another
season of Super rugby; 2011 promises to be a fantastic year for this
great game and I’ll be doing my very best to make it a memorable one for
you hard working punters out there.
Hurricanes -12.5 v Highlanders
2 at 1.93
-2
The opening match of the season sees two rookie Super 15 coaches
squaring off – Jamie Joseph (Highlanders) v Mark Hammett (Hurricanes).
Joseph has a tough ask first up, having to travel to the Cake Tin
without two of his top players in Slade and Donelly and a side that
lacks experience in key positions. The Canes are also a little light on
experience in certain areas, particularly in the forwards, but whilst I
expect the forward battle between these two sides to be fairly even, it
will be in the backs that the home side will inflict the damage. As long
as the Canes forwards can at least hold their own against the
Southerners, and I believe they will, then the Canes backline should
receive plenty of good ball which will mean trouble for the visitors.
The Highlanders on the other hand simply won’t have the offensive
firepower to really worry the Canes defence, they’ll try hard but won’t
be able to match it with the experienced and very talented Canes
midfield and outside backs. The Bookies have the line at 11.5 to the
Canes and I expect them to cover this. Pick – 2 units on Hurricanes
-12.5 point start
Rebels +7.5 v Waratahs
2 at 1.91
-2
Each and every Rebels player will be extremely emotionally driven for
this match and with the squad they have, along with the support of a
capacity home crowd, there is every chance they could cause an upset
here in their first ever Super 15 match. One of the strengths of the
Rebels is the experience they have sprinkled through the side in key
positions, namely Mortlock, Huxley, Cordingly and Somerville and with
the flair of Cipriani to draw on off the bench they’ve got no shortage
of firepower. The Tahs have lost the big presence of Palu at number 8
but still have a very good looking side and the Bookies have rightfully
installed them as favourites but the Rebels are not going to lie down
here and the decent point start on offer to the home side appeals. Pick
– 2 units on Rebels +7.5 point start
Blues to beat Crusaders
3 at 2.13
+3.39
The absence of McCaw from this Crusaders side will be
a huge advantage for the Blues given they’ve got the All Blacks second
choice openside playing - Daniel Braid - who will have a significant
presence and dominate the battle of the loose ball in what I expect to
be a winning Blues side. The Crusaders have named a very strong side but
without wanting to harp on about it the loss of McCaw is a tipping point
when it comes to these big clashes away from home. 2011 is make or break
for the Blues, their coach Pat Lam has had a few seasons to build this
side and they now have a very strong look to them with a huge amount of
talent and experience. The Crusaders have been installed as favourites
for this match with the Blues are offering good value and we’ll have a
piece of it thanks. Pick – 3 units on Blues to win (BEST BET)
Chiefs to beat Brumbies
2 at 2.20
-2
The Brumbies have lost a good chunk of their senior contingent for 2011
in Mortlock and Smith – two players that are simply irreplaceable and
what’s left is a very green looking squad that will end the season close
to the bottom of the table. The Chiefs on the other hand have kept the
core of their strong squad from 2010 and showed us last year that they
seem to have put their woes on the road behind them, I expect a
continuation of that this week. I really like the addition of Umaga to
the Chiefs midfield, he’ll ensure the defence is up for everything
thrown at them and will use his years of experience to help unleash the
dangerous Chiefs back three in Muliaina, Nani-Williams and Sweeney.
Short and sweet here – the Chiefs will run the show from kick-off and
come away with a clinical win on the road. Pick – 2 units on Chiefs to
win
2010 ARCHIVE
SUPER 14 - FINAL
Bulls v Stormers
NO PLAY
These two sides have been head and
shoulders above the rest of the in the Super 14 season 2010 and it came
as no surprise to see them both comfortably dispatch their opposition in
the semis – the Bulls beating the Crusaders and the Stormers thrashing
the Waratahs. Unfortunately we’re not going to have a play on this match
as the Bookies have priced it about right, the Bulls are rightfully
favourites at home and will be very very tough to beat but the Stormers
are capable, I’m just not sure how their scrum will bare up under
pressure from the Bulls, which could create issues for them, but with
this aside they’re relatively even - they both have a number of world
class game breakers, both are very well structured and both lack nothing
in intensity and desire. The Stormers defence is phenomenal but if any
side can crack it it’s the Bulls but again I don’t see this as a great
money earner as it could go either way. This has been another good
season of returns for OnThePunt followers and just because this is the
final I’m not about to have a stab in the dark and recommend you risk
your hard earned dollars on it – this column is about making money! I
hope you spend your winnings from the season wisely and I look forward
to having you back with us in 2011. Pick - no play
I'd like to publicly thank our Union guru for another stellar tipping
performance. I’m sure readers would agree - a simply stunning end to the
season. On behalf of the OTP team, many thanks and enjoy the off-season.
- OTP Editor
SUPER 14 - SEMI FINALS
Stormers -6.5 v Waratahs
3 at 1.89
+2.67
The Stormers comprehensively beat an under strength
Bulls side last week to secure this home semi final whilst the Waratahs
had an equally emphatic victory over a lacklustre Hurricanes side in
Sydney. This will be a whole different prospect though as they're facing
a side that has by far the best defensive record in the competition and
50,000 of their passionate fans behind them. The Tahs deserve their spot
here but I believe they were made to look a lot better than they
actually are last week as the Canes were simply dreadful, and with the
weight of possession the Tahs had in that match the winning margin
should have been a lot wider, they won't get half the opportunities here
that they enjoyed in that match. The Stormers boast one of the best
tight fives in the competition and a loose forward trio in Burger, Louw
and Vermeulem that is ever present, both on attack and defence and will
prove more than a handful for the visiting Australians. The home side
are simply going to be too good here as they dominate the set pieces,
shut down the Tahs offence and with the weight of possession I expect
the Stromers to have they'll keep the scoreboard ticking over. The
Bookies rightfully have the more experienced Stromers side as clear
favourites and I'm happy to back them to cover the line relatively
easily. Pick - 3 units on Stormers -8.5 or better point start
(BEST BET)
Bulls v Crusaders
NO PLAY
These two sides met just two weeks ago in what ended
up being a nail-biting win to the Bulls as they crossed the line in
extra time to steal the victory; that match was the last played by most
of the starting fifteen here as many were rested against the Stormers
last week, whether that was a good decision or not will remain to be
seen. There is a real air of uncertainty around the result of this
match, the unfamiliar ground in Soweto, where the Crusaders may actually
be well received, and the absence of powerful Bulls lock Bakkies Botha
following his four match suspension and add to this the travel the
Crusaders have had to do early in the week. I was tempted to back the
travelling Crusaders to win here but this Bulls pack is hard to go
against and the week off could well have done them a world of good, or
the opposite.....I don’t see this as a great one to risk your hard
earned cash on. Pick – no play
SUPER 14 - ROUND FOURTEEN
Crusaders -5.5 v Brumbies
3 at 1.91
+2.73
This match has become a quarter final following last weeks results that
saw the Crusaders narrowly beaten by the Bulls and the Brumbies
comfortable victors over the Highlanders. The Bookies have obviously
installed the Crusaders as favourites on their home turf but I was
expecting a shorter price on the home side given the strength of their
squad, their home ground record and the proven experience they possess
at the business end of the season. I've been waiting all season for the
Brumbies to put in a performance befitting of their squad but they've
yet to really deliver, the fact is their backline is half as potent
without the guidance of Stirling Mortlock and with him again out injured
here I just can't see them firing to the point where they're asking the
questions that are needed of this Crusaders defence. I can see some
tough early exchanges but as the match wears on and the Crusaders slowly
build a lead the visiting Brumbies will get frustrated and mistakes will
come. This won't be a complete blowout but it will be comfortable to the
Crusaders and they'll cover the spread. Pick - 3 units on Crusaders -6.5
or better point start (BEST BET)
Highlanders +12.5 v Reds
2 at 1.91
+1.82
The Reds hopes of semi-final action in 2010 came to an abrupt end last
week at the hands of the Hurricanes whilst the Highlanders were
comfortably beaten by the Brumbies. As bad as the Highlanders were last
week I'm still struggling to justify the very generous line they're
being offered this week by the Bookies, especially given the rebounding
nature of this side who are capable of beating the best, then losing to
the worst within the space of two weeks. The Highlanders have a very
healthy record against the Reds and with their coaching staff under a
weight of pressure following another lacklustre season they've got
plenty of motivation to finish on a high, especially following the
pathetic effort they put in last week. I'm not convinced we'll see the
Reds play to the level that we've become accustomed to in 2010 with the
wind leaving their sales given they're now out of the semi-final race.
Pick - 2 units on Highlanders +12.5 point start
SUPER 14 - ROUND THIRTEEN
Hurricanes -5.5 v Reds
2 at 1.91
+1.82
Both these sides come into this following
below par efforts, the Canes were fortunate in beating the Chiefs whilst
the Reds were not so lucky in being hammered by the Brumbies. The
Bookies have installed the Canes as favourites here which is more than
fair enough when you consider the mounting injury toll to the Reds, who
have this week added their star openside flanker Daniel Braid to that
list; the Canes are not unscathed in losing Smith at Centre but have
very ample cover with Tamati Ellison likely to fill his shoes. I get the
feeling with the Canes that we're about to see them really hit their
straps and match their early season favouritism with some action on the
field - they are choc full of experience in key positions and game
breakers and unlike last week they'll go into this game knowing they
have to be at their best to win. The Canes will have too much artillery
on attack for the Reds to hold back here and will have had an attitude
transplant after last weeks lacklustre performance and I expect will be
fully focused on a bonus point win, which the Reds won't be able to
stop! Pick - 2 units on Hurricanes -5.5 point start
Crusaders +9.5 v Bulls
3 at 1.92
+2.76
The Bulls continued on their winning
ways last week in beating the Sharks whilst the Crusaders were
uncharacteristically thrashed by the impressive Stormers in Cape Town.
The Crusaders are at a crisis point in their season and sit precariously
in third place on the points ladder and another loss here will see them
drop several rungs down. One thing about this Crusaders side though is
that they do not lack character and they are always up for a fight,
hence their impressive Super 14 title haul, and I am confident we'll see
a very good showing from them here as they run the Bulls off their feet.
Both these sides have named very strong line-ups but I see the key to a
possible Crusaders victory resting squarely on the shoulders of their
two world class players McCaw and Carter, who will rise here. The odds
are very juicy for the Crusaders to win but we'll resist that temptation
and stick with the very useful point start on offer to the visiting Kiwi
side. Pick - 3 units on Crusaders +9.5 point start
(BEST BET)
Blues 13+ v Lions
2 at 2.40
+2.8
The Lions are currently sitting last on the
points table with 11 losses and 0 wins to their name and a phenomenal
-224 point differential, whilst the Blues are all but out of the race
for a top four spot following their loss to the Cheetahs last week but
will throw everything into their remaining games to at least make their
season as respectable as possible. Having been nicely settled in the
Republic now for a few weeks and with a similar starting side to that
from last week I'm expecting a few combinations, particularly in the
Blues mid-field, to run a lot better here against a defence that's been
paper thin week-in and week-out and the tries will come for the visitors
at some regularity. Blues coach Pat Lam is a relatively inexperienced
coach at this level and he will be absolutely focused on getting this
side up for their remaining games as his career is also on the line -
this is going to be all one-way traffic as the class of the Blues run
rings around the woeful Lions. Pick - 2 units on Blues to win by 13+
Cheetahs to bt Force
2 at 2.01
+2.02
The Force continued their good late season
form last week in beating the woeful Lions whilst the Cheetahs accounted
for the Blues in one of their better performances of the season. The
Bookies can't separate these two sides and have them at even odds but
I'm happy to back the big Cheetahs pack to take it to the Force and come
away with the victory, led all the way by their inspirational skipper
Juan Smith whose presence on the field is immense. The last two matches
played between these sides in Bloemfontein have been won by the Force in
the narrowest of margins but I saw enough in their attitude and accuracy
last week, particularly on attack, to suggest they're not going to lie
down for the rest of the season. Cheetahs to win. Pick - 2 units on
Cheetahs to win
SUPER 14 - ROUND TWELVE
Highlanders to bt Waratahs
2.5 at 2.80
+4.5
The Highlanders came close to beating the
Canes last week but their defence really let them down with some easy
tries, they'll be buoyed by the fact they notched up a handful of well
constructed tries though and given their impressive record in
Invercargill they'll be confident going into this clash with the
Waratahs who are coming off a hard fought and relatively dull victory
over the Brumbies. I'm confident the Highlanders will have worked hard
on improving their leaky defence and given they're up against a less
formidable attacking side this week than the Hurricanes I'm confident
they'll not leak as many points two weeks in a row. The Tahs have kept
winning of late and are in a good position to finish in the top four but
I'm not convinced they're as good as their position indicates and am
happy to back the Highlanders to get the win here. The Highlanders
continue to be lead well by Jimmy Cowan at the base of the scrum and
he'll step up another notch here on his beloved home ground that has
been the scene of many great provincial victories in captaining
Southland over the years, The Highlanders forwards do have a good look
to them when compared, on paper at least, to the injury struck Waratahs,
and with class players such as Cowan, Dagg and Shoemark making their
presence felt in the back line there's certainly the potential for some
great attack from the Southern men. I just feel we've not seen the best
of this Highlanders side of late and am confident they will fire here
and put a dent in the Waratahs campaign. Many visiting sides have
struggled over the years with the conditions in Invercargill, often
being faced with unfamiliar cold and wet conditions, whereas the
Highlanders players are very used to such conditions. The odds on offer
to the Highlanders are very juicy and I'm happy to back them for the
upset this week. Pick - 2.5 units on Highlanders to win
Hurricanes -12.0 v Chiefs
3 at 1.91
-3
The Chiefs have had one of the worst
falls from grace of any side in any season of the Super 12/14 having
gone from close favourites to win the competition after round three to
now playing like wooden-spooners, largely as a result of the many
injuries they've suffered to key players, this week that list has grown
and they are going to be really up against it facing a Hurricanes side
desperate for a bonus point win and back in front of their home fans.
There's not a lot to say about this match other than I expect a very big
win to the Canes who have all the class, all the motivation and fans
that actually show up to their matches (without chainsaws luckily). The
Bookies have obviously installed the Canes as firm favourites and the
line is large but I strongly expect them to cover it with ease, there's
a gulf of class between these sides and it's about to show as the Canes
take it up a notch from their win last week over the Highlanders. Pick -
3 units on Hurricanes -12.5 or better point start (BEST BET)
Brumbies to bt Reds
2.5 at 2.00
+2.5
The Brumbies fought hard last week against
the Waratahs but were their own worst enemies on attack as they turned
over plenty of ball at crucial periods, I'm liking their chances of
getting things right here though as they make a final push for a highly
unlikely finals spot. Their opposition here, the Reds, continued their
very impressive run in beating the highly fancied Stormers last week in
a very hard fought win and I'm predicting they'll struggle to back that
up again this week after such a physical match, they've got a poor
record in Canberra and it's about to get even worse here as the Brumbies
throw everything at them. Neither side here is at full strength but it
is the Reds who have been hit the hardest with injuries. The Brumbies
forward pack will dominate up front and capitalise on the fact the Reds
forwards have had two weeks of very physical encounters that will have
left them somewhat weary and with that battle won they'll provide plenty
of good ball to the backs who have yet to really cut loose this season
but have shown signs lately that they're not too far off. The Bookies
have the Reds as slight favourites and I'm happy to recommend cashing in
here. Pick - 2.5 units on Brumbies to win
SUPER 14 - ROUND ELEVEN
Brumbies +5.0 v Waratahs
3 at 1.91
-3
The Brumbies have performed below expectations so far in 2010 given the
pack they've got and the level of experience throughout it in key
positions and after their loss last week to the Hurricanes their chances
of making the finals are not looking healthy and they must turn things
around here. The Waratahs go into this fresh off the bye which is not
always ideal at this time of the season and they've been hit quite hard
with injuries to Palu and Horne (unlikely), two players that have had a
big impact for them this season. I'm backing the Brumbies pack to fire
this week and really take it to the Tahs up front, they dominated the
Hurricanes scrum last week and will again have the ascendancy here
against a less experienced Tahs pack and I'm picking the classy backs,
with the return of Valentine at Halfback, to fire in the face of
adversity and come up with a performance that we've been waiting for.
The Bookies have given the Brumbies a small point start here but I’m
happy to jump on it as this match could easily be decided by a very late
penalty goal to either side. Pick – 3 units on Brumbies +5.0 point start.
Sharks -2.5 v Blues
3 at 1.91
+2.73
I'm surprised here by the narrow line on offer from the Bookies. This is
a must win match for both these sides but it's the Sharks who are in the
box seat going into this, they're at home and have not had to endure the
heavy travel schedule that the Blues have in order to get here. The
Sharks have beaten the Blues in their last five encounters and I am
backing them to make it six in a row here, covering the narrow line in
the process. The Sharks will be too strong up front and will control the
match from there, it will then be a case of their defence holding the
Blues and limiting their space, which they tend to do well, and the
Blues will inevitably make the mistakes that have got them to this
desperate position in the first place. The win over the Force will have
done the Blues some good but they certainly won't enjoy the same space
on attack in this match and whilst they held the Force's offence well
they'll struggle here as the Sharks will have them backpedalling. Short
and sweet, the line is very narrow and the Bookies have got it wrong and
the Sharks will win this fairly comfortably. Pick – 3 units on Sharks
-3.5 or better point start. (BEST BET)
SUPER 14 - ROUND TEN
Blues -9.5 v Force
3 at 1.92
+2.76
The Blues forwards were totally
outclassed last week by the Stormers and as a result of the loss all but
kissed their chances of making the finals goodbye, the Force on the
other hand put in their best performance of the season in comfortably
beating the Highlanders, running in 6 tries in the process. The Blues
will find it much easier going this week against a less formidable
forward pack and will attack at all opportunities which should make for
an exciting encounter. I’m not writing off the Forces excellent
performance last week but it was against an out of sorts Highlanders
side and that effort will have the Blues on full alert here. The Blues
have the upper hand over the Force backline and man for man will ask
plenty of questions, they were starved of the ball last week which
limited their effectiveness but they did show with what ball they had
that they’re capable of carving up even the best defence in the
competition which spells trouble for the visiting Force. The Blues are
at their most dangerous once all seems lost, which is the position
they’re now in, and with Pat Lam having laid down the law to them during
the week there’s absolutely no doubt they’ll be up for this match. The
Force have been good in their last two outing but it’s all going to come
crashing down this week as the Blues dominate up front and feed plenty
of ball to their exciting backline. The line is too skinny here from the
Bookies and it will be covered with ease. Pick - 3 units on Blues -9.5
point start (BEST BET)
Hurricanes to bt Brumbies
1 at 2.75
+1.75
v NO WRITE-UP AVAILABLE. Pick – 1 unit on
Hurricanes to win
Crusaders -30.5 v Cheetahs
2 at 1.91
+1.82
The Bookies have got a tough job setting
the points line whenever this Cheetahs side take the field as they just
keep giving up a tonne of tries and seem to be getting worse each week.
The line here is huge but is still not big enough as they will be
absolutely pulverised here with the home side getting complete
ascendency is every facet of the match. The Crusaders have yet to really
blow a team away this season and this is a timely match for them
following a series of tough encounters. Short and sweet here, the
Crusaders forward pack will make life very very difficult for the big
and relatively immobile Cheetahs pack and what ball the Cheetahs do have
will be turned over in either the set pieces or in open play. The
Crusaders have resisted the urge to rest some of their stars which
spells big trouble for the visiting South Africans and I expect this to
be a 40+ point win to the rampaging home side who will have a licence to
thrill, and thrill they will! Pick - 2 units on Crusaders -30.5 point
start
Bulls -3.5 v Reds
3 at 1.92
-3
The Bulls were everything I expected last
week against the Chiefs - brutal up front and in the set pieces, totally
dominating possession and basically suffocated the Chiefs out of the
match and stepped it up considerably when they needed to in the second
half winning comfortably in the end. The Reds are finally back home
following a fairly successful trip to South Africa where they won two
from three matches, including their comfortable win last week over the
woeful Lions, this match will be their toughest of the season do date
though and unfortunately for them, as good as they have been, this Bulls
side will again control the match with the weight of possession and they
will again use the might and power of their forward pack to inflict pain
on the opposition. Short and sweet - the Bulls are a class above the
rest of the sides in this competition and having been nicely settled in
Brisbane all week they have had the best possible preparation to end
their road trip on a high. The Reds have enjoyed a good amount of
possession in their recent games and have shown they're more than
capable of converting that into points, they certainly won't enjoy that
same amount of possession here though and will get frustrated as the
match progresses. The Bulls defence is rock solid and will make life
tough for the Queenslanders whilst the Bulls have so many options on
attack, whether it be going wide through their classy backline or simply
rumbling it over the line from anywhere from 20 metres out and they
won't struggle for points. The line is very slim here from the Bookies
and the rampaging Bulls will cover it. Pick – 3 units on Bulls -3.5
point start
Sharks -10.5 v Lions
2 at 1.91
-2
The Lions continued on their losing ways
last week in going down to the Reds whilst the Sharks enter this nice
and fresh following a week off with the Bye, prior to that though they
were hitting top form with good wins over the Hurricanes and Reds. The
Sharks will win this match through structure which is exactly what the
Lions side is lacking, give them an open match with plenty of room to
move and the Lions are capable of scoring tries but suffocate them with
a structured approach based around solid defence and sensible low risk
attack and they’re found wanting, which is exactly the approach the
Sharks will take here. There are many areas in which the Sharks will
dominate the Lions, they have a much more disciplined and formidable
forward pack and a backline choc full of match winners who are hitting
top form at the right end of the season. Despite a very slow start to
their season the Sharks have shown just what they’re capable of in their
recent victories and a spot in the final is still within their reach,
they need all the bonus points they can get though and will see this as
a golden opportunity to walk away with the maximum here. The line is
quite generous to the Lions but their paper thin defence won’t be able
to hold back this determined and disciplined Sharks side who have
everything to play for. Pick – 2 units on Sharks -10.5 point start
SUPER 14 - ROUND NINE
Bulls to bt Chiefs
3 at 2.25
+3.75
The Chiefs struggled past the
Highlanders last week, losing their captain Muliana for eight weeks in
the process whilst the Bulls have plenty of improvement in them
following their first loss of the season to the Blues. I really like the
Bulls to bounce back strong here, they have a very experienced side who
have proven their ability week in and week out in 2010 and with just the
one change to the starting side from last week (Stephan Dippenaar
replaces Jaco Pretorius in the mid field) ther're nicely settled and
ready to get back to winning ways. The Chiefs forward pack will be under
imense pressure here and I expect their line out woes to get even worse
against one of the top set piece sides in the competition. Losing
Muliana is a big blow for the home side with their other main attacking
weapon Sivivatu already out, they'll struggle to make any big inroads
into this Bulls defence with the limited ball they do get and once the
big and mobile Bulls forward pack get the maul going there'll be no
stopping them, especially from any line outs close to the chiefs try
line. Short and sweet, I really like the value here on the Bulls, the
Chiefs will still be having nightmares about last years final in which
they were absolutely thrashed and whilst the margin won't be anywhere
near as large here I expect the result to be the same as the Bulls
outclass them right across the park. Pick - 3 units on Bulls to win
(BEST BET)
Stormers +7.5 vs Blues
3 at 1.93
+2.79
The Stormers season took a real hit last
week with their loss to the Force with an injury time drop goal having
conceded just the one try in the match but losing the arm wrestle that
insued, the Blues on the other hand put in their best performance of the
season in downing the previously undefeated Bulls. The Bookies have gone
for heavy favouritism to the Blues here and whilst I agree they should
take the field as favourites I'm not convinced the big line on offer is
correct, especially given the Stormers defensive record in 2010. I
expect an even battle up front here with the big Stormers pack holding
their own in the set pieces and the battle of the loose ball will be
fiercely contested with the seasoned Stormers loose forwards in Burger,
Louw and Vermeulen all capable of causing some headaches for the Blues
around the rucks, whilst they have a number of players out wide who
could also prove a handful for the Blues defence. As mentioned above
though it’s the rock solid Stormers defensive line that gives me the
most confidence that this will be a close encounter, once the Blues
start getting a little frustrated then we’ll see some loose play from
them and that’s when mistakes will come and the visiting South Africans
will capitalise, which makes the generous point start on offer from the
bookies very appealing. Pick - 3 units on Stormers +7.5 point start
SUPER 14 - ROUND EIGHT
Hurricanes to bt Crusaders
2 at 2.58
+0.58
The Canes have tried pretty much everything this season to right their
wrongs but it didn't stop them losing last week to the Sharks, whilst
the Crusaders enjoyed the week off following their win over the Lions.
Man for man (with the exception of Carter and McCaw) the Canes either
hold their own or hold the upper hand here and as we've so often seen in
the past there's no more dangerous side in the competition than a
desperate Hurricanes, and that's exactly what they'll be here. We'll see
a more measured approach from the Canes to this match following the
return to the tried and failed mentality of throwing the ball around at
all costs that they've adopted of late and I believe they'll come up
with the goods. The Canes loose forward trio of So'oialo, Vito and Lowe
really need to step up and be in support of the backs as the tackle is
made or else McCaw will have a field day, whilst the tight five will
have the measure of the Crusaders in the set pieces and aside from
Carter the Canes have the upper hand over the Crusaders back line with
the dangerous combination of power, skill and experience which will pose
headaches for the visitors defence. The Crusaders have had a relatively
easy run leading into their week off which will play into the Canes
hands and will find the pace and intensity of this match tough going.
Whilst this is a good Crusaders side I'm still not convinced they're as
well coached as teams gone by, they rely heavily on the influence of
Carter and McCaw and a lot of the Canes game plan will be around
limiting their presence by holding onto possession and playing a smarter
brand of rugby. This Canes side should not be written off just yet as
we're about to see here they still have plenty of rugby left in them in
2010. Pick – 2 units on Hurricanes to win
Blues to bt Bulls
3 at 1.88
+2.64
I felt the Blues actually put in close to their best performance of the
season so far in narrowly losing to the Waratahs last week and I give
them a more than good chance of beating the undefeated Bulls here who go
into this off yet another victory against the Force. The Blues will be
well and truly up for this battle and essentially go into this with
their season on the line, a loss and they can all but kiss their finals
hopes goodbye, whilst the Bulls face their biggest challenge of the
season so far given their very friendly match itinerary to date. It will
be the Blues forward pack who will have to bear the brunt of the load
here and come up with the answers to the many questions, particularly
around the rolling maul, that the Bulls are bound to ask, it they can
match this large and mobile Bulls pack, which I believe they will, then
the Blues back line will kick on from where they left off against the
Tahs and points will come. Mathewson and Brett are getting better
together each week and will provide a good base off of which Rocokoko,
Wulf, Toeava, Ranger and Williams can all launch, as they're all hitting
top form. In front of what will be a large home crowd I expect the Blues
to win and win well - cash in here! Pick - 3 units on Blues to win
(BEST BET)
Sharks -4.5 v Reds
3 at 2.00
-3
I have to eat my own words following my dire prediction for the Reds
last week against the Cheetahs after they proved me wrong and won the
match, not trying to take anything away from that victory though they
did come up against a Cheetahs side that played one of the worst matches
I've seen from any side so far this season. The Sharks are finally back
home after a very challenging trip down under where they got better and
better, winning their last two games over the Highlanders and
Hurricanes. As long as the Sharks can get over their big trip back to
the Republic I expect them to have the ascendancy here in the forwards,
even with Braids return for the Reds, and with the Sharks classy
backline, being led brilliantly by Ruan Pienaar, there'll be plenty of
pressure on the Reds defence who were not overly tested last week. Short
and sweet, the Reds have been very impressive and I was a week premature
in predicting a loss for them, it will come here though and the Sharks
will cover the narrow line on offer from the Bookies. This will be
played in front of a very large and parochial crowd in Durban who will
have plenty to cheer about. Pick - 3 units on Sharks -4.5 point start
SUPER 14 - ROUND SEVEN
Brumbies -2.0 v Chiefs
2 at 1.92
+1.84
The Chiefs come into this fresh off the
Bye, having lost their two games prior to that whilst the Brunbies will
be licking their wounds following a close loss to the Blues in Auckland
where I felt they played better than they have for some time, they'll
still be scratching their heads though as to why they continue to play
below the level at which one would expect from this side. Two of many
things in the Brumbies favour this week are they're back playing in
Canberra and they have their very influential star centre Stirling
Mortlock back in the line-up. The Chiefs jumped out of the boxes early
in the season but the last two losses have exposed some real weaknesses,
particularly in the forwards and I expect this Brumbies side (even
without George Smith who is injured) to dominate the less experienced
Chiefs pack and for the rejigged back line (Giteau has moved to Inside
Centre) to ignite. This is not a good time to be playing the Brumbies on
their home ground as a rediscovery of their top form has been only a
matter of games away and I saw enough in the second half last week to
suggest this is the game in which we'll see them at their best. I'm
really pleased with the tight line the Bookies have on offer - as I said
above this will be a victory led from the front and I expect complete
dominance by the Brumbies. Pick - 2 units on Brumbies -2.5 or better point start
Cheetahs to bt Reds
3 at 2.15
-3
The Reds come into this match fresh
off the Bye, having beaten both the Force and Chiefs prior to that in
two very comprehensive displays of running rugby, whilst the Cheetahs
are fresh off a big loss to the Stormers. Even though the Reds have been
the surprise package of the Super 14 thus far the trip to the Republic
is the most difficult trip for the Aussie and Kiwi sides to make and the
travel and altitude factor weigh heavily in the home sides favour,
especially given a side like the Cheetahs play notably better at home as
evidenced by their demolition of the Hurricanes a few weeks ago, a side
that's arguably much better equipped than the Reds for such a match.
Another big bonus for the Cheetahs is the absence of one of the Reds
most valuable players - Daniel Braid, who is out injured and whose
presence in securing loose ball and general ball play will be sorely
missed by them. The Cheetahs are under pressure to win their home games
given their poor record on the road and I expect a performance similar
to that against the Canes in which they were brutal up front, dominated
the rucks and mauls and supplied quality ball to their capable back
line. Even though the Cheetahs have made a few forced changes this week
through injury I still think the Bookies have got this one wrong, I'd
have expected favouritism to go to the Cheetahs as this is a whole new
challenge for the Reds and a bridge too far at the moment. Pick - 3
units on Cheetahs to win (BEST BET)
Force +12.0 v Bulls
3 at 1.92
-3
The Force put in their best performance of
the season last week in narrowly losing to the Waratahs whilst the Bulls
were fortunate to come away with a 1 point victory over the Hurricanes
with some home ground refereeing decisions going their way. This is the
first match for the Bulls outside of South Africa as they've enjoyed a
dream run so far and first glimpses at both sides records would suggest
this will be a formality but I don't believe it will be at all. As I
expected last week the Force defensive line was very much up for
whatever was thrown at it and the forwards, led brilliantly by Nathan
Sharpe, dived into everything with an enthusiasm that will continue on
into this game. The last three games between these sides has seen a
winning margin of no more than 3 points, with the Force winning two of
those matches, and I expect another tightly fought low scoring battle
here which makes the generous point start on offer from the Bookies very
appealing. Pick - 3 units on Force +12.0 point start
SUPER 14 - ROUND SIX
Blues -3.0 v Brumbies
3 at 1.93
+2.79
Let me just quickly start this week by apologising for the below average
tipping thus far in 2010, the rest of the season will hopefully be dominated by
success and good profits will be made. Right then, this is a great money
earner to start the weekend off with the under fire Blues up against an
under performing Brumbies side. The Brumbies are missing their
inspirational Centre Stirling Mortlock for this clash, a player whose
presence is always sorely missed by them and given the underwhelming
nature of their last two performances they can ill afford to be without
him here. The Blues captain and Hooker Kevin Mealamu celebrates his
100th match for the Blues this week and this will certainly add an extra
spring in the step of his team mates as they look to celebrate this
milestone in style with their popular captain. It is approaching crunch
time for the Blues season as they've yet to hit the road for the
Republic and they need some home wins under their belt if they're to
come close to featuring in the finals. I've seen enough from the home
side to suggest they've got better things to offer and believe they'll
match, if not better, the Brumbies up front and their back line will
have it over the less experienced Brumbies. The line from the Bookies
here is tight and I really like the Blues to cover it easily. Pick - 3
units on Blues -3.0 point start (BEST BET)
Hurricanes +13.5 v Bulls
3 at 1.91
+2.73
The Hurricanes were bitterly disappointing last week in being thrashed
by the Stormers and as a result their coach Colin Cooper has wielded the
axe this week, whilst the Bulls continued their offensive blitz in
clocking up 50 points in beating the Highlanders in their last match,
one glimmer of hope for the Canes though is the fact the Bulls are
conceding big numbers defensively each week and this match could be just
what the doctor ordered for the under fire Canes offense. With a back
line that boasted the likes of Nonu, Conrad Smith, Corey Jane, Weepu and
others along with a forward pack that is full of current and ex All
Blacks it's been a surprising couple of weeks from the Canes with such
comprehensive defeats but this is too good a side with too much
experience to concede defeat with just a whimper again here and the very
generous point start on offer really appeals. The six newcomers Cooper
has brought in this week are all very capable players and will add much
needed energy to the side as they look to make the most of this
opportunity. The Canes have had good success in Pretoria having won
their last two matches there against the Bulls with the dry conditions
are conducive to their offensive style of play. I expect the Canes to be
well and truly up for this match and that large point start on offer
from the bookies is very appealing....get on it! Pick - 3 units on
Hurricanes +13.5
Force +12.0 v Waratahs
2 at 1.90
+1.8
Lets not beat around the bush here, the Force have been dreadful so far
this season but I've absolutely no doubt they will run this Tahs side
very close here, if not win it, and given the Bookies are offering them
a 12.5 point start I'm more then happy to jump on it. I'm less than
convinced of the Tahs abilities in 2010 and am certainly not getting
carried away by their thrashing last week of the bottom placed Lions,
which is far from the ideal lead-up for this clash as the Force will no
doubt target a strong defensive line as the key to keeping them in this
clash, especially after a week of soul searching following their
humiliating loss to the Reds last week. The Forces injury woes in 2010
have been much publicised but it's time to deliver with what's on hand
and I'm looking forward to seeing them put in a very spirited effort
here and at the least coming within the generous point start. Pick - 2
units on Force +12.0 point start
SUPER 14 - ROUND FIVE
Sharks +10.5 v Brumbies
2 at 1.91
+1.82
The Brumbies were disappointing last week
in making tough work of the Lions whilst the Sharks put in one of their
better performances in narrowly losing to the Waratahs and still remain
win less in what is one of the early shocks of the season. The Sharks
have lost three in a row in Canberra but the biggest win margin was 6
points which will provide the Sharks with a degree of confidence. Sharks
coach John Plumtree has called for discipline from his side and with
senior players littered throughout the side breaking the duck will be a
challenge they'll be very committed to and will make this a very tough
match for the Brumbies. The issue of travel is not a big issue for the
Brumbies as they've been in Australia for two weeks now and are nicely
settled. I like this one to go right to the wire as the desperation from
the Sharks comes to the fore in a spirited performance, which makes the
generous point start on offer rather inviting. Pick - 2 units on Sharks
+10.5 point start
Bulls -19.5 v Highlanders
3 at 1.91
-3
There are a mountain of reasons just
why the Bulls will win this match by plenty and could eclipse their
winning margin of 30 points which they clocked up last time the
Highlanders visited Pretoria. The Bulls have started better than any
side in the competition and the trip to Pretoria is arguably the
toughest away game of them all and the Highlanders have to do it this
week without two of their better performed players on 2010 - Hobbs at
first five and Thompson on the flank, who have both been disciplined
following a breach of team protocol. While the visitors lose two of
their better players the Bulls welcome back two of their top performers
into the starting line-up in Springboks Spies and Potgieter who will
both add to the already imposing forward pack. The bookies have gone for
a very big line here but it's nothing the Bulls can't cover and I expect
a very big crowd to cheer them on to a very big win. Pick - 3 units on
Bulls -19.5 point start (BEST BET)
Hurricanes to bt Stormers
2 at 2.65
-2
The Canes unbeaten bubble burst last week
when they were totally outclassed by the less fancied Cheetahs and
whilst they could put it down to somewhat of an ambush there is no
chance of any such excuses here with favouritism going to the Stormers
who are fresh off a very comprehensive 33-0 victory over the
Highlanders. The Canes welcome back into the backline Conrad Smith and
Tamati Ellison who are fully recovered from injury and have moved Ripia
into start at first five following an indifferent performance from
Cruden last week. This is going to be a great match-up of one of the
best attacking sides in the competition in the Canes against a side
that's only conceded two tries in 4 games. The Canes have a good recent
record in Cape Town and certainly have the side to cause this Stormers
team some real concerns, particularly out wide. I like the Canes to
bounce back here with some strong defence of their own and come up with
a hard fought win. Pick - 2 units on Hurricanes to win
SUPER 14 - ROUND FOUR
Brumbies v Lions
Tot Pts Over 49
3 at 1.91
Luxbet
-3
The Brumbies return home for this match following their gutsy win over
the Stormers in Cape Town last week whilst the Lions continue to lick
their wounds from what has been an 0-3 start to the season, the latest
loss coming last week at the hands of the Hurricanes. I’m breaking a bit
with tradition here and going for the ‘combined points’ option as I feel
it’s too good to overlook. The Brumbies have one of the most dynamic
squads in the competition with game-breakers all over the park and
they’ll be looking forward to flexing some of that offensive muscle
against a side that’s given up large totals in all their games. The
lions play a very loose style of rugby and until they address their
defence they’re going to continue to give up large totals, whilst on the
other hand their occasionally unorthodox style of attack is going to be
good for a few tries of their own. The total points should be around 51 points and
I’m very confident that will be passed. Pick – 3 units on total combined
points 51+ (BEST BET) *Please be aware that it
has been raining in the Canberra region today.
Stormers -6.0 v Highlanders
3 at 1.91
+2.73
The Highlanders came good for us last week in
beating the Cheetahs whilst the Stormers will be rueing several aspects
of their last match in losing to the Brumbies, particularly their
inability to capitalise on good try scoring opportunities, and I expect
a much more cohesive display from their dynamic backline this week,
whilst the forward pack is bolstered by the return of star flanker
Schalk Burger. The Highlanders will be buoyed following their win last
week but the Stormers are not about to lose two in a row at Newlands and
I expect this will be a comfortable double digit win to the home side
who will lead all the way and claim a bonus point as they raise the
tempo from last week and convert those chances into tries. Pick – 3
units on Stormers -6.0 point start
Cheetahs +5.0 v Hurricanes
2 at 1.94
+1.88
The Cheetahs backed up their very good win over
the Sharks a fortnight ago with a disappointing effort in losing to the
Highlanders at home last week, as a result I feel they’ve been a little
underestimated this week against a Canes side that’s spent the early
part of the week travelling and adjusting to the new surroundings. The
Canes have been good without being great in their opening three wins and
their last two wins have been against winless sides and this will be
their toughest test to date, especially considering they’re fresh off
the plane and primed for an ambush with Conrad Smith, Eaton, Kawau and
Ellison all missing. The leadership of Juan Smith is not to be
underestimated and with a large forward pack that has a point to prove
after last weeks loss I can see this being a low scoring arm wrestle and
whilst tempted to back the home side to win I’m happy to play it safe
with the point start. Pick – 2 units on Cheetahs +5.0 point start
SUPER 14 - ROUND THREE
Crusaders v Sharks
NO PLAY
The Sharks have fallen well short of expectations after 2 rounds, losing
home games to both the Chiefs and the Cheetahs, and given they’ve had to
travel half way around the world this week for this match in
Christchurch it’s no wonder the Bookies are giving them next to no
chance at the win here. The Crusaders have been in damage control this
week following their heavy loss at the hands of the Reds in Brisbane and
will be more determined than ever to bounce back strongly here and with
the return of McCaw to the bench and Brad Thorn to start at Lock they do
have a good look about them to do just that. The Sharks have never won
in Christchurch and that’s not about to change here, the line is about
right though. Pick – no play
Brumbies to bt Stormers
3 at 2.49
+4.47
The Brumbies were having a fairly even toe to toe battle with the Bulls
last week until the classy Bulls kicked on at the end and won
comfortably, whilst the Stormers had a surprisingly easy victory over
the Waratahs. This week could be just what the doctor ordered for the
Brumbies with their very impressive record over the Stormers (the
Stormers have only beaten them once in their past 11 encounters) and the
key loss of Burger on the Blindside for the home side. The Brumbies have
made just the one change with veteran Harrison making way for Hand at
Lock, and given they’ve now had over a week to settle down in the
Republic I expect we’ll see this week just what they’re capable of in
2010 and the value on them to win is well worth taking. Pick – 3 units
on Brumbies to win (BEST BET)
Hurricanes v Lions
NO PLAY
The Lions defence was absolutely woeful last week in conceding 72 points
to the Chiefs and I don’t expect their touch-rugby style of attack to
get them too many points in Wellington against a Canes side that’s
looking ominously good, yet still not quite at their best. The Canes are
bolstered by the return of Eaton at Lock, whilst the Lions have replaced
the suspended Stoltz with the inexperienced Earl at Lock. It does not
take a brain surgeon to figure out that the Lions will be focusing on a
much better defensive line here but whether they can hold out this
impressive Canes offence and keep within the very generous line on offer
is tough to call. The Canes will win comfortably but the line could be
about right. Pick – no play
Reds v Blues
NO PLAY
The Reds have started 2010 in very impressive style under the coaching
of Ewan McKenzie and will have their tails up this week following their
demolition of the Crusaders. The Reds have lost their captain Horwill
for the season but that is counterbalanced by the return of the very
experienced Hardman and Humphries to the forwards whilst the Blues have
made three changes, the most notable being the move of Rene Ranger to
Centre to replace the injured Toeava, a move that could hinder their
cohesion out wide. There’s a lot to like about the Reds so far and the
only thing stopping me from backing them to cover the narrow line on
offer is the thought of possible complacency following the thrashing
last week of such a big scalp. Pick – no play
Force v Chiefs
NO PLAY
With two road wins in South Africa the Chiefs could not have wished for
a better start to the season, whilst the opposite can be said for the
injury depleted Force who have suffered two losses, the heaviest of
which coming against the Hurricanes last week. I’ve not seen much from
the Force to have me recommending a win here, or even a close match, but
the Chiefs do have injuries of their own and following two good wins
could struggle to again lift their intensity here. Not a great match to
cash in on. Pick – no play
Bulls v Waratahs
NO PLAY
As average as the Waratahs were last week in losing to the Stormers I’m
still a little surprised at the very generous margin on offer here, with
the Bookies offering them a 15.5 point start, having said that though
the Bulls are looking ominous at home and with a forward pack like
theirs coupled with the skill and pace of the backs it’s hard to see the
visiting Tahs competing for 80 minutes. Not a great match for the
punters. Pick – no play
Highlanders +5.5 vs Cheetahs
2 at 1.91
+1.82
The Cheetahs have shown their best and worst in the first two weeks of
this 2010 season, losing their opening game to the Bulls (letting n 51
points) then winning on the road last week against the fancied Sharks,
finally prevailing in an arm wrestle of a match. The Highlanders have
lost both their opening matches but have not been easy beats with both
matches being decided late and they’ll be buoyed this week by their
record over the Cheetahs, having won the last four matches between the
sides, two of which were here in Bloemfontein. I said it last week and
maintain that this is a very good Highlanders side packed with
experience in key positions and some talented youngsters in the likes of
Hobbs and Dagg and I really fancy them to get within the point start on
offer here and possibly steal the win, let’s just stick with the line
though. Pick – 2 units on Highlanders +5.5 point start
SUPER 14 - ROUND TWO
Highlanders to bt Blues
2 at 2.18
-2
Tough match to pick first up, two sides that looked good for periods
last week but came away with losses, it was the Highlanders who
impressed the most though and I can’t go past them here at home to take
this match out. There is a lot to like about the Highlanders, most
notably their leadership throughout the side with Cowan and Shoemark
leading in the backs and Thompson and Mackintosh in the Forwards,
players that have been around a long time and inspire the youngsters
around them. It goes without saying that both these sides will be
desperate to get a win under their belt but I believe the Highlanders,
in front of their home fans, will win the battle of the forwards packs,
laying a good foundation for the win. Pick – 2 units on Highlanders to
win
Reds vs Crusaders
NO PLAY
Apart from the obvious headache facing the Reds here in the form of Dan
Carter it’s the apparent mismatch, on paper at least, between these two
forward packs with the Crusaders boasting a wealth of experience and
talent. After a very strong showing last week in narrowly losing to the
Waratahs I am hesitant to bet against the point start they’ve been given
by the Bookies, I like the Crusaders to win it but the margin is really
going to be decided by the level of forward dominance the Crusaders get
which will inevitably decide just how much of an influence Carter is, if
he gets plenty of quick ball going forward then it’s going to be a long
night for the Reds. Pick – no play
Lions vs Chiefs
NO PLAY
The Chiefs surprised me last week in coming away with the win over the
Sharks, they were fortunate though in that the Sharks had one of their
worst games in memory, making stupid decisions resulting in 2 yellow
cards and endless penalties. The Lions were average in going down to the
Stormers and didn’t do anything to inspire thoughts of a good season
ahead for them, with Carlos Spencer failing to ignite either himself or
the Lions backline. The Chiefs have Lauaki back this week to bolster the
forwards and on paper at least have the much stronger side. The line is
about right here, the Chiefs are rightfully favourites but Lions coach
Dick Muir is a very hard taskmaster and will be demanding more from his
side as they try and make the most of home ground advantage and I
wouldn’t be surprised if this was closer than expected. Pick – no play
Sharks -7.5 vs Cheetahs
3 at 1.91
-3
Of all of the sides from last week it was the Cheetahs who I found to be
most disappointing in getting thrashed at home by the Bulls, doing
nothing to suggest they’ll be anything but languishing down the bottom
end of the table yet again in 2010. The Sharks probably played one of
their worst games in memory in losing to the Chiefs last week with most
of the damage been done at their own hands through shocking discipline,
they will be a very different side this week though and I’ve no doubt
they’re about to help their captain and Hooker Jon Smit celebrate his
100th super match in style with a big win. Short and sweet – I see
complete dominance right across the park for the Sharks who will easily
cover the line in a disciplined and destructive win. Pick – 3 units on
Sharks -7.5 point start (BEST BET)
Hurricanes -16.5 vs Force
3 at 1.91
+2.73
A trip to the home ground of one of the favoured
sides in the competition, without at least 6 of your frontline players,
is not what the Force need right now but it’s what they’re faced with
and after a relatively disorganised performance in losing to the
Brumbies last week I can only see things getting very ugly for them in
Wellington. The Canes win over the Blues was not a vintage performance
by any means but to win when playing below par is the mark of a good
side and from jersey 1 through to 15 the Canes have got it all over the
Force and in front of a large and very parochial home crowd I expect the
Canes to flex their very impressive collective offensive muscle here and
notch up a very large win. All one way traffic, it’s going to be a dry
ground (as per forecast) which will be perfect for the Canes who will
cover the large line. Pick – 3 units on Hurricanes -16.5 point start
Bulls vs Brumbies
NO PLAY
The Brumbies welcome two of their biggest names, Elsom
and Giteau, back into the side this week after both missed the season
opening win over the Force last week and their return really does give
the side a very menacing look, with arguably the best forward pack in
the competition and a sharp backline lead by Giteau and Mortlock. The
Bulls come into this off the back of a comprehensive away win over the
Cheetahs and look like they’ve not missed a step in carrying on last
years good form, this match will be a much better gauge as to just how
good their 2010 version is though. I was initially leaning towards the
Brumbies with the point start here but it’s just a tad low and whilst I
expect this to be close it’s just to hard to bet against the Bulls at
home not covering a line, no matter who the opposition is. Pick – no
play
Stormers vs Waratahs
NO PLAY
The Tahs won’t be disappointed about playing in Newlands given they’ve
beaten the Stormers on their last two visits here but after an
unconvincing win over the Reds last week they’ll need to go up a few
gears to match this Stormers side who won an error-filled match against
the Lions last week. Neither side set the world on fire last week and
the line from the Bookies is fair. Pick – no play
SUPER 14 - ROUND ONE
Blues +3.5 v Hurricanes
2 at 1.91
-2
This is a great match to kick off the 2010
Super 14, not only because of the fierce rivalry these two sides have
but also given some much anticipated changes that have been made to the
Blues, most notably the Alby Matthewson/Steven Brett Halfback and First
Five combo. I’m actually a little surprised at the Canes favouritism
here as their record in Auckland is not flash and the Blues do have a
more than capable side that I believe will turn a few heads this season,
with a backline that looks the goods and a solid forward pack that I am
sure will match their Hurricane counterparts. The first match of the
season is often a close fought encounter and this will be no exception.
There are no excuses for the Blues in 2010 and this is the match in
which they’ll look to lay a platform – either way it’s going to be very
close and, just like the pre-season warm-up match these two sides played
a few weeks ago, I believe it’ll be defence that wins the day – take the
Blues with the +3.5 start to kicks start the season with a positive
bankroll. Pick – 2 units on Blues +3.5 point start.
Force v Brumbies
NO PLAY
With a forward pack that is as good, if
not better, than any in the competition and the acquisition of Giteau
and Valentine to the inside backs for 2010 it’s hard to look past this
Brumbies side as being the top finishing Australian side in 2010. It is
the opposite case for the Force with their poor recruitment and the
retention of under fire coach John Mitchell, and I believe this will be
the worst season of this franchises brief history. Man for man the
Brumbies are much stronger than this Force side (with the obvious
exception of Nathan Sharp) and the bookies line has reflected this, my
only question is whether the Brumbies can live up to the early hype and
expectations they now face. It’s never easy playing in Perth and whilst
I agree with the Brumbies favouritism the line on offer is about right
and it’s a good game to sit out. Pick – no play.
Cheetahs +10.0 v Bulls
3 at 1.93
-3
With up to 14 winning Bulls players
from last years final ready to take the field here the Bookies have
jumped on them as hot favourites for this match but there’s not been a
lot between these two sides in recent time with the last match only
being decided by a last minute Habana try (who is now playing for the
Stormers) and with a question mark over No. 8 Spies inclusion in the
starting line-up the Cheetahs will back themselves to go one better here
in Johannesburg. Unlike a lot of the other super 14 franchises the
Cheetahs have not made many significant changes to their 2009 side,
which I believe will have them in a good position to turn a few heads in
2010, starting with a strong start against the defending champions. Even
in the matches they lost in 2009 the Cheetahs managed to keep it close
and whilst I would not be totally shocked if they won this match at the
very least they should keep it within the generous point start on offer,
cash in here. Pick – 3 units Cheetahs +10.0 point start
(BEST BET).
Highlanders +12.5 vs Crusaders
2 at 1.97
-2
2010 has dawned a good year for all
Crusaders fans given the return Dan Carter, however one should not get
carried away early on as they are going to be without their (arguably)
even more influential Ritchie McCaw for the first 2-3 games, they are
also missing numerous other front line forwards for this match. The
Crusaders are the perennial over-achievers in this competition and every
single side that comes to Christchurch know exactly what they’re in for,
none more so than their closest neighbours the Highlanders who lift for
these clashes. The very tenacious and inspirational Cowan is going to
add a lot to the Highlanders side as captain and given the depth of
experience the side now has, especially in the forward pack, they will
certainly pose some questions in 2010, starting this week against the
Crusaders. Short and sweet- I see an even battle up front and in the
loose and not a lot of room for the backlines to move with a match
dominated by defence, as so often is the case Carter could be the
difference, but he won’t account for the 10 point start on offer to the
Highlanders – get on the Southern-most men with the start. Pick – 2
units on Highlanders +12.5 point start.
Reds v Waratahs
NO PLAY
The Reds have not made any real
significant acquisitions to there playing roster for 2010 but they have
made one of the best decisions in the franchises history in appointing
former NSW coach Ewan McKenzie to take over, a move that I am positive
they will not regret. The Tahs as always boast a strong squad and have a
menacing look to them in 2010 having added some real match winners in
Kiwi Soseni Anesi, Drew Mitchell and Berrick Barnes to the back line.
These matches are traditionally unpredictable and for the sake of the
early season bankroll I recommend keeping your wallet firmly buried in
that pocket of yours. Pick – no play.
Lions v Stormers
NO PLAY
Both these sides have made some
significant acquisitions for 2010 with the Lions signing former All
Black Carlos Spencer at First Five and the very successful Dick Muir as
coach; the Stormers have also spent well in welcoming JP Nel and match
winner Bryan Habana to their side. Spencer’s presence at first-five will
provide a stability to this Lions backline that has been missing and
along with Muir’s influence over the team I’ve no doubt they will finish
higher than their 12th place last year. Both these sides will be
stronger in 2010 but just how much stronger will remain to be seen and
this match is not a good money earner. Pick – no play.
Sharks -4.5 v Chiefs
2 at 1.91
-2
Here you’ve got the traditionally slow
starting (and losing 2009 finalists) Chiefs side up against the Sharks,
who have retained a fairly similar squad (with the exception of Francois
Steyns departure) to 2009 and under coach John Plumtree will no doubt
look to emulate their early season table-topping heroics of last year.
The Chiefs are without captain Muliana here and his replacement as
captain, Sione Lauaki, is simply not a leader and it astounds me that
Foster has nominated him. I see a comfortable victory here to the home
side as they dominate this Chiefs forward pack and limit any attacking
opportunities the visitors may have, watch the score mount up towards
the end. Pick – 2 units on Sharks -4.5 point start.
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FUTURES
GOLF
2012 US MASTERS
Mickelson, Phil 6.00
Mcilroy, Rory 7.00
Woods, Tiger 8.50
Westwood, Lee 21.00
Donald, Luke 21.00
Watney, Nick 26.00
Kaymer, Martin 34.00
Johnson, Dustin 34.00
Scott, Adam 34.00
Schwartzel, C 34.00
Day, Jason 34.00
Mahan, Hunter 36.00
Garcia, Sergio 36.00
Mcdowell, Graeme 36.00
Watson, Bubba 36.00
Kim, Anthony 36.00
Ogilvy, Geoff 36.00
Fowler, Rickie 36.00
Harrington, P 41.00
Stricker, Steve 41.00
Poulter, Ian 41.00
Cabrera, Angel 41.00
Kuchar, Matt 41.00
Simpson, Webb 41.00
-4
+3.4
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