RBA April Interest Rate opens $1.55 favourite to be unmoved!

Leading financial bookmaker Centrebet has opened ‘No Move’ to the official RBA cash rate in April a $1.55 favourite! But Centrebet media chief and analyst Neil Evans said the $2.20 quoted about another 25bp Interest Rate rise on April 6 was still “very much in play!”

“After the Reserve bumped the official rate by one-quarter per cent last week, the early indicator is the central bank will cool its heels, but against that are continuing strong industrial performers in employment, retail and real estate sales, and there is certainly room for back-to-back 25bp rises,” Evans said.

“It will be intriguing to see which way punters go early, particularly after RBA Govenor Glenn Stevens flagged several rises in 2010 to meet a sustainable cash target!”

Evans said the decision on Tuesday, April 6 comes on the first working day back from the four-day Easter long weekend, and may play a part in the RBA’s announcement! Around $45,000.00 in bets arrived for the official cash rate decision last month!

Meanwhile, the ‘Over 4900 Pts’ option for the closing figure on the ASX 200 indice has drifted today from $2.13 out to $2.42 after the market took a sudden dip following days of robust performance!

“Punters had been backing the ‘Over 4900’ option heavily, but the ‘Under 4800 pts’ has now firmed back in from as high as $2.60 into $2.33 favourite,” Evans said. “The 4800 – 4900 pts band is still the outsider at $3.25!”

Already, nearly 100 individual bets have been placed on Centrebet’s ground-breaking ASX 200 indice market!

MARCH 8, 2010

Punters to bet on the ASX 200 index!

In an Australasian betting first, punters from today will be able to bet on the monthly finish line of the S & P ASX 200 index!

Centrebet’s media chief Neil Evans hailed the new betting medium as the “next big thing in financial betting” – 20 months after the leading bookmaker became the first in the country to offer markets on the Reserve Bank’s official monthly Interest Rate move!

“In that time, nearly $1 million has been bet with us on the RBA’s rate decision, now market punters can bet on the ASX 200 indicator, with three end-of-month prices regularly updated,” Evans said. “This is something we have been working on for months, and believe it will ignite a new wave of financial punters!”

Today’s opening March 31 market has Over 4900.0 points as the $2.00 favourite ahead of Below 4800.0 at $2.70, while the middle band of 4800.0 points to 4900 points is the $3.50 outsider!

“Punters will now be watching the betting moves as much as the ASX indicator itself as they try and swoop on the winning option,” Evans said.

MARCH 31 CLOSE ASX 200 INDEX

$2.00 4900.1 PTS OR MORE $2.70 4799.9 PTS OR LESS $3.50 4800.0 PTS – 4900.0 PTS

MARCH 5, 2010

SUPER –SAT FLEMINGTON

• Melbourne Cup winner Shocking has been heavily backed today on Centrebet to win the Group 1 Australian Cup, firming from $8.50 into $7.50! The Flemington specialist has attracted a string of smart bets, including wagers of $3,000.00 and $1,000.00 – both at $8.00! Sirmione ($16.00 into $14.00) has also been well specked! Money has dried up for Zipping and he is $8.00 out to $9.00! And very good specking for Zarita ($21.00 down to $16.00) including one bet of $500.00 at $21.00! Ruling favourite Heart of Dreams has been easy out to $6.00!

• Best backed Newmarket runner today on Centrebet is Starspangledbanner, with $5,000.00 in wagers arriving! Has tightened from $8.50 into $8.00. Bets include $1700.00 at $8.00, $1,000.00 at $8.50 and $500.00 at $8.00! Reasonable support for early wide favourite All Silent but he’s easy in the market, $5.50 out to $6.00! Long-range firmer King Pulse continues to shorten today $15.00 down to $14.00 – one bet of $800.00 at $15 – all up has almost halved its price from $26.00 in the last few weeks. Tickets has been very well specked from $21.00 down to $19.00!

• Punters are still backing Denman at $1.75, including a bet a short time ago of $5,000.00! But after completely owning the market for days, a few thousand in smart money has arrived for Set for Fame in the last couple of hours, tightening it from $6.00 down to $5.00! Linton is $5.50 out to $6.00, and apart from one lone bet of $1,000.00, is virtually unwanted!

• The best-backed runner at Flemington all day has been the Snowden galloper Backgammon in the VRC Sires Produce, sensationally backed from $9.00 into $5.50, with some very smart money! Race favourite Willow Creek has also been heavily supported $3.40 into $3.00, but In Faith has been a little easy $3.20 out to $3.60!

• Another Snowden galloper Trim has been heavily backed to win the Kewney from $3.80 into $3.50, while returning VRC Oaks winner Smart Perfume has attracted smart money and backed from $9.00 down to $7.00! Melbourne fillies Rostova and Irish Lights are both drifters in the market!

MARCH 3, 2010

“Back to the Future” in new multi-million dollar NRL deal!

Leading bookmaker Centrebet has today announced a spectacular $2 million investment in the National Rugby League – involving sponsorship of five of the competition’s most heavyweight clubs, direct on-jersey signage and a unique commitment to the game’s revitalised fan base!

Centrebet media chief Neil Evans announced that last season’s minor premier St George-Illawarra and top eight hopeful Penrith had today joined the multi-club stable, signing special one and three-year deals, worth close to $500,000.00!

These two clubs join last season’s NRL grand finalist Parramatta, 2008 premiers Manly and the Nth Qld Cowboys as proud six-figure partners with Centrebet, heading into the most anticipated season in decades!

The extended Manly deal also involves the Centrebet name branded on the playing strip, and is worth close to $1 million over three seasons, while the Dragons partnership involves numerous promotions with the bookmaker’s ambassador and former dual international Wendell Sailor!

On top of that, Centrebet has extended major deals across the rugby league media, including the popular NRL Footy Show and Triple’s M Monday Night Football broadcast!

Evans, who will regularly appear alongside Big Dell on the Footy Show this season, labelled the new multi-million dollar commitment as going “Back to the Future!”

“We recognise that rugby league’s grass roots and club traditions will never be more valuable to the game, with continued competition from rival codes, especially the AFL’s push into western Sydney,” Evans said. “But the lifeblood of rugby league still flows heavily through Sydney’s streets, and in the Dragons, Eels, Sea Eagles and the Panthers, we have committed to four of the most passionate and recognisable badges in the long history of the game.

“The Cowboys, though, is more where we see the game’s longer-term breeding ground, so our attitude is we want to be involved with both the history and the future!”

Evans said that further to Centrebet’s unrivalled number of betting markets on rugby league, the bookmaker will be running several fan and charity promotions and competitions throughout the season!

Meanwhile, Centrebet is the first to offer head-to-head betting markets world-wide for the opening NRL round, with the new-look Wests Tigers opening a $1.73 favourite to beat Manly ($2.10) at the SFS!

Evans said the bookmaker had broken new ground by releasing the round one markets, nearly two weeks ahead of match-day in order to give punters a running start to the new season! "There has been unprecedented interest in the lead-up to the season proper so we want to get up and running, not just with head-to-head prices but the Line prices as well!”

Centrebet opened the Broncos a $1.65 favourite against arch-rival Nth Qld Cowboys ($2.25), while in the Sydney ‘purists’ battle, $6.50 premiership favourite Parramatta opened $1.80 against arch-rival St George ($2.00)! "We expect both these games to be colossal betting events," he said.

Newcastle's out-of-control off-season is reflected - a long $3.55 outsider against the Bulldogs ($1.29), while a re-shaped Penrith is a hot $1.39 fancy at home to the Raiders ($3.00)! In other matches, NRL and World Club champion Melbourne has opened $1.42 away to the Sharks ($2.85), while Gold Coast is $1.45 favourite against the Warriors ($2.75) and Souths ($1.45) is heavily fancied to beat the neighbouring Sydney Roosters ($2.75)!

And nearly $10,000.00 in bets has arrived for the Wests Tigers to win the premiership, shortening the 2005 champs from $21.00 into $12.00!

FEBRUARY 25, 2010

PUNTING PM MARKET REQUEST FUELS FIRE THAT GILLARD MAY TAKE RUDD’S JOB!!

EDIT • First bets have arrived for Julia Gillard PM market …opening bet – FROM ELECTION REGULAR - not surprisingly was $2,500.00 @ 1.17 on Gillard NOT to become PM before next election … only been up for 1 hour, and we do have $400.00 on Gillard at 4.00! … no sign yet of the big punters who inspired the market!!!!

• In an astonishing twist on the doorstep of a crucial Federal Election, leading political bookmaker Centrebet has posted Deputy Prime Minister Julia Gillard a $4.00 shot to become the nation’s first female leader BEFORE the nation goes to the polls!

Centrebet media chief and analyst Neil Evans said the tough-as-teak Ms Gillard was $1.17 to still be Kevin Rudd’s Deputy, given the current PM’s personal preferred PM position is still “reasonably strong.”

Evans said the new Federal market would “fascinate punters,” and was released after separate requests from clients who wanted to back Ms Gillard not just to become Australia’s first ever female national leader, but to take the country’s top job before the looming Federal poll!

“We had one client hell-bent on placing a wager on Ms Gillard to take Mr Rudd’s job, claiming he would place a bet of $5,000.00 or even up to $10,000.00 if the price was right,” Evans said. “Despite the Coalition continuing to make up ground on the government across most fronts under new leader Tony Abbott, it was “almost unthinkable” that Mr Rudd would be dumped for Ms Gillard before the next election! Yet against that, Mr Rudd is being circled by a firestorm of policy and social problems, not the least being the debacle over the failed batts insulation scheme that could well cost frontbench MP Peter Garrett his job!”

“There is also growing unrest and criticism among Labor staffers over Mr Rudd’s general approach!”

Evans said Mr Rudd was under pressure at a time when the country is in many ways revolting against Labor rule, and Ms Gillard – the most admired of the Federal Labor politicians by many hard-core conservatives – has taken a lot of the heat for the government when Mr Rudd preferred to hide! “We are now eagarly awaiting to see if the big money to support Ms Gillard arrives!

While still the clear favourite, Labor has eased to $1.28 (from $1.26) in the last few days after nearly $30,000.00 in bets arrived for the Coalition shortening its price from $3.65 into $3.55!

August 28 remains the $5.50 favourite on Centrebet when Australians will go to the polls!

FEBRUARY 18, 2010

Beneteau hot horse ahead of the Diamond

• Ahead of Saturday’s Group 1 Oakleigh Plate (1100m), returning headline horse Weekend Hussler continues to attract punting support with bookmaker Centrebet at the long-shot price of $16.00!

“One punter unloaded around $5,000.00 across a series of wagers at $16.00 and $15.00 to win nearly $70,000.00, while other early bets included $1500.00 at $14.00 and $2,000.00 each-way at $15.00/$4.80,” Evans said. “We’re expecting the Hussler to run a big race having been in work for some time, but to beat some of these over 1100m after such a let-up, it’s fair-dinkum ‘Will Robinson.. Lost in Space stuff’!” Officially, the Hussler is $16.00 into $15.00!

Early favourite Lucky Secret has been well backed on Centrebet at $5.50 including bets of $2,000.00 and $1500.00, while Starspangledbanner has been a genuine shortener from $7.50 into $7.00 after a string of money, including wagers of $2,700.00 and $1,000.00!

-------------------

• Fixed odds punters with Centrebet have today launched an all-out assault on Blue Diamond favourite Beneteau winning Saturday’s feature Group 1 two-year-old classic, shortening the unbeaten colt from $3.80 into $3.60!

Centrebet media chief Neil Evans said Beneteau was now carrying a huge percentage of the book, and was the exclusive runner switched-on early punters were chasing, indicating the horse will come up a lot shorter on race day!

“Today, we’ve taken a bet of $10,000.00 at $3.75, two bets of $2,500.00 at $3.75 and $3.65, $2,000.00 at $3.80 and just under $2,000.00 at $3.70,” Evans said. “There’s a stack more smaller stuff from punters following the smarter money, and having been trimmed from $4.00 into $3.80 after the barrier draw, Beneteau is now a runaway $3.60 favourite!”

Star filly Pyschologist, who drew the outside gate, continues to lack support after easing to $6.50, while last-start Flemington winner Star Witness is clearly the next most popular runner, well backed from $9.00 down to $8.00, including one Brisbane client who’s outlaid $5,000.00 to win just under $50,000.00!

There’s also been more strong specking today for the Snowden galloper Secession who has firmed from $12.00 into $10.00!

FEBRUARY 9, 2010

AUGUST 28 OPENS $5.00 FAV WHEN AUSTRALIANS GO TO THE POLLS!

Saturday, August 28 has opened a wide $5.00 favourite with leading bookmaker Centrebet when Australians will go to the polls to hand the Rudd Labor government another term, or bring back the Coalition under new leader Tony Abbott!

In describing the market as a “revolving door” – and one of the most difficult to accurately assess - Centrebet media chief and analyst Neil Evans said the second half of August was looming as the most likely time – both constitutionally and socially – Labor would call the election!

“The timing of constitutional issues is pivotal here, and for that reason August through to mid September seems the most likely time an election will be called,” Evans said. “This is the time the government can opt for a normal House and half-Senate election, or exercise a double-dissolution election for the House and the entire Senate!”

“The Prime Minister has a nasty juggling act – does he go early before the Opposition really starts to bite into his party lead and tear apart his policy ideals, or does he fall back on the old line of being a full-term leader,” Evans said. “In fact, this is where he’ll use the packed election schedule with at least three states due to head to the polls to delay his tactic, and for that reason the After Oct 30 option ($7.00) is shorter than Before July 3 ($9.00)!

Evans said the stumbling block on a late election though is the fact the Victorian parliament dissolves for the State campaign on November 2 with the election scheduled for November 27! “He would then run into Christmas, and quickly after into a crucial NSW election campaign where the ruling Labor government ($4.90) is virtually on the scrapheap,” he said.

Evans added that certain Saturdays around late September and through October were much longer in the market because of school holidays across the country and major sporting grand finals!

Labor remains $1.20 favourite on Centrebet ahead of the Coalition ($4.25)!

FEBRUARY 8, 2010

COULD THEY LEAVE INTEREST RATES ON HOLD A FOR A SECOND STRAIGHT MONTH!! SURELY NOT, BUT PUNTERS SAY YES!!!

• Mortgage holders might be cracking open the champagne for a second straight month if an early money trail on Centrebet for Interest Rates to be left on hold again in March hits the mark!

Centrebet’s Neil Evans admits to still being in a semi-state of shock the RBA didn’t lift the rates by 0.25bp last week, but back-to-back holding patterns from the Reserve would prove a bigger celebration than anti ETS campaigners in Copenhagen!

“We opened ‘Stay the Same’ for March a $2.60 second favourite, but already it’s in to $2.05 after scores of bets, including one finance “specialist” who has backed it four times, even nearly four weeks from the decision,” Evans said. “Consequently, the early favourite of a quarter percent increase has eased from an opening $1.55 out to $1.65, while the 50bp rise has eased from $5.00 out to $5.50!”

Evans said rarely do you see such a significant move for one option so far out from the decision!

“Our feeling was the rates must go up in March after the RBA held fire in February, but the early punters say the cash rate is going nowhere for the moment!”

NEXT RBA OFFICIAL INTEREST RATE DECISION (Sch Mar 2, 2010)

$1.65 STAY THE SAME (out from $1.55) $2.05 INCREASE BY 0.01 – 0.25 % (in from $2.60) $5.50 INCREASE BY 0.26 – 0.50 % (out from $5.00) $51.00 INCREASE BY MORE THAN 0.51 % $81.00 ANY DECREASE

JANUARY 28, 2010

AUST OPEN UPDATE

• Top seed and $1.58 tournament favourite Serena Williams has firmed from $1.17 into $1.15 on Centrebet to beat Na Li in today’s semi-final after a rush of nearly $35,000.00 in bets, including $15,000.00, $10,000.00 and $4,700.00 – all at the opening quote of $1.17! Na Li has blown from $5.00 out to $5.40 and is unwanted by punters.

A different story, though, in the second semi-final where plenty of punters have taken the big $4.50 price about Jie Zheng upsetting Justine Henin ($1.20)!

“The money here is actually favouring Zheng about 55-45 split, so there’s a feeling among punters they should be a lot closer together in the market,” Centrebet’s Neil Evans said. “Henin remains a much more attractive proposition in tournament betting where she remains an attractive $2.85 second favourite behind Williams. She’s been well fancied all the way down from $7.50, and is arguably better prepared for a final than Serena!”

• Meanwhile, Marin Cilic remains a long $4.85 outsider against British number one Andy Murray ($1.18) ahead of tonight’s first men’s semi-final, with the money down the middle so far!

Top seed Roger Federer is even shorter at $1.16 to win his semi-final against flamboyuant Frenchman Jo Wilfried Tsonga ($5.25)! Federer is $1.77 in tournament betting ahead of Murray ($2.35) with Tsonga at $17.00 and Cilic ($19.00)!

DECEMBER 30, 2009

PERTH CUP EXTRA///PERTH CUP EXTRA/// “THE STING IS ON”

BIG MOVE TODAY FOR GONDORFF … THE GALLOPER NAMED AFTER PAUL NEWMAN’S CHARACTER HENRY GONDORFF IN THE 1973 OSCAR-WINNING GAMBLING CLASSIC OF THE GREAT DEPRESSION – THE STING!

• Perth clients have led an almighty raid today on Gondorff to win Friday’s Group 2 Perth Cup, shortening the horse from $6.50 into $6.00!! Several clients have stepped in, including a regular Perth punter who has wagered $2,500.00 across several bets at $6.50 and $6.25, and another who has staked $2,000.00 at $6.50!

Gondorff is the big mover today, while Lords Ransom remains the $3.80 favourite on Centrebet!

Punters hold Perth Cup to Ransom! … but a longshot still looms!

Money is still being staked with Centrebet on dominant Perth Cup favourite Lords Ransom after the emerging stayer was heavily backed in All-In betting from $7.50 into $3.80!

Centrebet’s Neil Evans said big punters from both the west and east had targeted Lords Ransom even before his sweeping win in the CB Cox Stakes (1800m) lead-up!

“They came early for Lords Ransom, including one sharp punter who had $3,000.00 at $4.20,” Evans said. “Another WA client had around $2,500.00 across four separate wagers at $4.00 and $3.90, while there were bets from the east of $1,000.00 at $4.00, $1500.00 at $3.90 and another Perth client had $2,000.00 at $3.80. Then just prior to yesterday’s barrier draw, another client bet $2,000.00 at $3.70!”

“Lords Ransom’s preparation has been spot-on, he’s from the hot Adam Durrant stable and he’s drawn to get the ‘gun’ run from barrier two. Yet in a field of 16 around the tight Ascot circuit, luck still plays a part and we’ll look to stay competitive with his price. But we expect more big money today at the $3.80.”

The other big mover in futures betting on Centrebet was Right Fong who firmed heavily from an early quote of $16.00 into $7.00! “We took a stack of bets, including $800.00 at $16.00, $1500.00 each-way at $9.00, $1,000.00 at $10.00, $2,500.00 at $10.00, and $500.00 at $7.50, and even though the money has stalled since the horse drew gate 17 in the final field, he will still be an ordinary result for us,” Evans said.

Several WA punters with Centrebet are banking on first reserve Almohad - with the gun Lou Luciani-Jason Whiting combination pulling the strings – getting a run! “The horse was heavily specked from $26.00 into $16.00 in the lead-up to the barrier draw, but now sweats on a start!”

Another Durrant-trained galloper Ma Chienne has been well fancied, firming from $8.50 into $7.50, while stablemate Star Encounter was specked in the Futures market, including one bet of $1,000.00 at $16.00. “It seems the only Durrant galloper punters are cold on is Great Destiny who drifted from $10.00 to $14.00 after drawing gate 15, while the David Hayes-trained Largo Lad eased from $9.50 to $12.00 (back to $10.00) after drawing 19,” Evans added.

One of the most interesting moves has come for longshot Geyser Peak. Despite being given little hope from a wide gate, one WA punter has been backing the horse for weeks, unloading nearly $1,500.00 to win around $70,000.00, and the horse has shortened down from an early $51.00 into $21.00!

And another punter from NSW’s central west has placed nearly $1,000.00 across several bets on the Shane Edwards-trained Le Bon Jeune at $26.00. The Mark Reed-trained Gondorff holds the second line of betting at $6.50 after drawing ideally in barrier six!

DECEMBER 24, 2009

PUNTERS TURN BACK THE AUSSIES WAY!

• The money is starting to turn Australia’s way on Centrebet ahead of the Boxing Day Test, after early punters snapped up the opening $5.00 about Pakistan, shortening them into $4.90! But Centrebet’s Neil Evans says several thousand has been wagered in the last 24 hours on the Aussies at $1.78 to win the MCG clash, with the Draw also tightening from $3.40 in to $3.30!

“It seems they want to back Australia, but have waited to the odds lengthen a little,” Evans said. “But while Pakistan is expected to come out swinging, punters seem in little doubt Australia will take the best-of-three series, pushing the home side from an opening $1.63 into $1.57!”

Evans said the Drawn series was now at an attractive $4.25 (out from $3.75), while a Pakistan series win was now paying $5.25!

• Meanwhile, prolific winner Wild Oats XI remains Centrebet’s well-backed $1.80 favourite to win the 2009 Sydney to Hobart yacht classic, with Alfa Romeo ($2.25) and ICAP Leopard ($4.50) the only other contenders in single figures! But the race record is not expected to fall, with No Record quoted at $1.75!

Evans said Wild Oats XI was commanding half off all monies invested including bets of $2,000.00 at $1.85 and $1,200.00 at $1.80, but Alfa Romeo and ICAP Leopard had also shortened from their opening prices. One Sydney punter has staked $750.00 on ICAP at $4.75!

DECEMBER 22, 2009

AUST v PAKISTAN///BOXING DAY TEST///

• Australia has opened $1.72 on Centrebet to win the Boxing Day Test at the MCG, with the Draw quoted at $3.40, and Pakistan a despised $5.00 outsider!

• And despite battling to beat the West Indies, Australia is an even shorter $1.63 to win the best-of-three series, with a Drawn result at $3.75 and Pakistan at $5.25!

“Personally, I think plenty of punters will consider the gap between the two teams as a little too big, and expect both the Draw and Pakistan to shorten the closer we get to the start of play,” Centrebet’s Neil Evans said! “Not surprisingly, the early money and bet numbers are 3:1 Pakistan’s way, with punters hopping on what is considered over-the-odds value!”

ABBOTT HONEYMOON OVER! FED BETTING MOVE: LABOR SURGES BACK INTO $1.19 FAVOURITE!

The betting honeymoon for new Coalition leader Tony Abbott has seemingly come to an abrupt end on Centrebet, with election punters unleashing a wave of money for the Rudd Labor government to retain office, once the party hit $1.23 in head-to-head betting!

Centrebet media chief and analyst Neil Evans said the heavily-backed ALP had eased from $1.16 out to $1.23 after the first real big wave of money came for the Opposition once Mr Abbott took over from Malcolm Turnbull!

“All of a sudden the $5.00 being bet about the Coalition was attractive under the new leader. One specialist Sydney punter unloaded nearly $20,000.00 across four bets from $5.00 down to $4.35 before the Opposition levelled out at $4.00,” Evans said.

“But in the last week, smart punters have hopped back on Labor, including bets of $10,000.00 at $1.23, $10,000.00 at $1.22 and $2,500.00 from a ‘tough’ punter at $1.22. Most of the money is coming from Sydney clients, and it seems they were just waiting for Labor to get out to a more backable price before they stormed in!”

Evans said this was another sharp reminder that while Mr Abbott is popular and admired in some quarters the money confirms he’s not the leader to cut into Labor’s margin at the ballot box! Nearly $150,000.00 has been traded so far on the Federal Election with Centrebet, with Labor holding 80 per cent of all monies. Mr Abbott, though, is $1.14 on the bookmaker’s ‘Liberal Leader at Next Federal Election’ market, with Joe Hockey $4.95, and Any Other Candidate $7.50!

Meanwhile, the NSW Opposition Coalition has tightened to its shortest price - $1.15 – to win office at the next State poll, with the embattled Labor government, under new leader Kristina Kenneally, now at a whopping $4.90! Bets are running 10:1 the Coalition’s way, with the biggest recent wager $15,000.00 on the Coalition at $1.19 made by a prominent member of the Sydney media set.

DECEMBER 7, 2009

TEST LEAD

After a slow build-up in betting to the Adelaide Test, “live” punters have gone ballistic on Centrebet during the match, spurred on by a rare tight contest that threatens to go all the way to the wire!

Centrebet’s Neil Evans said huge outright action came on the third day’s play when one punter unloaded $30,000.00 on Australia to win at $1.95, having drifted all the way out from $1.21 at the start of the match! A short time ago another client bet $10,000.00 on Australia at $2.85! Evans said at the same time, another client bet $5,000.00 on the Windies at $11.00 to win $50k, the despised outsider having shortened from a massive $16.50 at the start of play!

Scores of punters also bet between $500.00 and $5,000.00 on the Draw from $3.00 down midway through the third day’s play, and again attacked that result in the first session this morning! “It’s a pretty good move considering by well into the fourth day, the Draw was rated odds-on ($1.92),” Evans said.

But the action-packed hero of “live” betting belongs to the client who today made himself a nice profit playing Centrebet’s exclusive ball-by-ball “live” Under/Over Line for every over of the Test!

In the Windies second innings, he unloaded $15,000.00 under 3.5 at $2.00 in the 7th over, $20,000.00 under 3.5 at $2.05 in the 8th over, $8,000.00 under 3.5 at $1.90 in the 12th over, and $15,000.00 under 3.5 at $1.90 in the 17th over to name a few in a relentless surge of over-by-over ‘live’ action that left him nicely in front!

Just to ice the cake, the same punter staked $25,000.00 on Chris Gayle making more than 57.5 runs in the second innings at $1.85! “At lunch, he just needs two more from Gayle, and I can tell you fortune still favours the brave,” Evans said. “This over-over-by betting is sensational for hedge punters and those with a serious game target or market, allowing you to successfully play both ways!”

DECEMBER 2, 2009

PUNTERS LAUNCH WAVE OF MONEY FOR ROY JONES KNOCKOUT!

• Punters have launched a stunning move for Roy Jones Jnr on Centrebet to knockout Danny Green in tonight’s showdown at Acer Arena, backing the ‘Jones by Knockout’ Method of Victory from an opening $3.70 into $2.80!

Centrebet Media Chief Neil Evans said nearly $40,000.00 had been wagered on the fight result options, with nearly 90 per cent of all monies across a Jones knockout, including bets of $20,000.00 at $3.25, $5,000.00 at $3.25, $5,000.00 at $3.00 and $3,000.00 at $3.20! “It’s been a sustained move from $3.70 down, and alarm bells are sounding for Danny Green,” Evans said. “The big question is whether punters are spot on with way the fight goes, or whether they’ve taken the result value as opposed to just backing Jones to win. In head to head betting, he has eased from an opening $1.30 out to $1.35!”

The ironic part is that Danny Green is shading the money win the win market alone, although manly punters believed he was over the odds at the opening $3.40! “He has been backed down to $3.15, and actually leads the bet numbers by a 4:1 ratio!

$10k BET ON COALITION SPARKS BETTING RUSH AFTER LABOR’S ETS LEGISLATION IS BURIED!

• Immediately after Labor’s explosive ETS legislation was formally buried in the Senate - and the trigger for a double dissolution early election became real - a long-time election punter on Centrebet unloaded $10,000.00 on the Coalition to cause the mother of all Federal upsets at $5.00!

Centrebet media chief Neil Evans said there was an immediate rush of action for the Opposition moments after the Senate vote, including another bet of $4,000.00 at $4.50! “It’s not surprising the money has come for the Coalition at such a big price, considering new leader Tony Abbott has hit the ground running having Labor’s precious carbon-reduction policy wiped away in the Senate,” he said!

“It was a green light for punters who think the Coalition’s only chance is to go in swinging on an early ETS election, given the economic impact the Opposition had made on the electorate over the last few days. But you have to respect the big picture, and that is whether an Abbott-led Opposition can genuinely bite into Labor’s significant margin at the ballot box. At this stage I think that is a long way away!”

The Coalition has shortened today on Centrebet from $5.00 into $4.10, with Labor easing dramatically – for the first time in months – from $1.15 out to $1.22!

AUST FED ELECTION

$1.22 LABOR (out from $1.15) $4.10 COALITION (in from $5.00)

WHO WILL LEAD THE COALITION AT NEXT FEDERAL ELECTION

$1.16 TONY ABBOTT $4.35 JOE HOCKEY $7.50 ANY OTHER CANDIDATE

DECEMBER 1, 2009

Abbott now 1.25 to lead coalition into next vote, Hockey 3.00 ... but double dissolution tightens to 1.50! labor firms to 1.14 to retain govt!

Leading election bookmaker Centrebet has shortened the likelihood of a double dissolution early election into a $1.50 favourite after Tony Abbott’s shock elevation to the leadership of the Liberal Party, despite punters backing Joe Hockey from $1.80 into $1.28 to take the reins in the last 24 hours of betting!

Centrebet media chief Neil Evans said long-serving MP Mr Abbott, who was well backed when he first made it publicly known he would challenge Malcolm Turnbull, shortened from $4.50 into $3.00, but eased back out to $4.35 when the support came late for Mr Hockey! “This is a tidal-like reminder of the party’s emphatic stance on the ETS legislation. The vote to elevate Mr Abbott in front of Mr Hockey is a clear-cut protective stance on the Coalition’s anti-carbon scheme policy!”

Centrebet also shortened the already heavily-backed Labor government from $1.16 into $1.14 to win the next election, with the imploding Coalition easing dramatically from $4.75 to $5.15! Labor already holds more than 85 per cent of nearly $100,000.00 traded!

The Coalition Leader market has returned with Mr Abbott a $1.25 favourite, Mr Hockey at $3.00, with Any Other Candidate priced at $6.50! “We still don’t rule Mr Hockey out of the frame, but he will only be a good bet if Labor goes the full term, if we are looking at a double dissolution election than Mr Abbott is the obvious hot favourite,” Evans said.

NOVEMBER 29, 2009

FED COALITION LEADER AT NEXT ELECTION MARKET!

• Several more bets laid in last couple of hours - Just took one wager from a Sydney client of $2,000.00 on Hockey at $1.35!!! Nearly all for Hockey, although one smaller punter had $250.00 on Turnbull at $4.65!

Hockey firms to $1.40 as Australia awaits another 25bp rate hike!

Leading election bookmaker Centrebet today shortened Shadow Treasurer Joe Hockey into a hot $1.40 favourite (from $1.50) to lead the Coalition at the next Federal election as the market for a double dissolution early poll squared off at $1.85 each!

Centrebet media chief and political analyst Neil Evans said money was still arriving for Hockey, although under-fire Leader Malcolm Turnbull ($4.00) was still attracting more interest than senior MP and challenger Tony Abbott who eases in betting from $3.50 out to $3.85!

“Punters seem undecided over whether Australia will go to the polls early in the wake of the explosive ETS debate, but the ‘No’ option at the opening price of $1.90 is shading the money, so we’re obligated to now make them $1.85 equal,” Evans said. “Certainly, the longer the Senate sits this week over the carbon reduction bill the greater chance we will be left with a double-dissolution early trigger, despite the PM shying away from the possibility!"

"We have to balance the Senate sitting with the bitter divisions inside the Opposition over Malcolm Turnbull's leadership, and rebellious and influential Coalition figures will desperately try to avoid being painted into a time-driven corner on the passing of the Bill!"

Meanwhile, the option of a 25bp rate rise from the Reserve Bank tomorrow closed a well-backed $1.28 favourite on Centrebet (in from $1.40) after weeks of trading! Evans said punters had backed both the 0.25 percent and Rates staying the same at different times, but in the end the nation appears set to cop a third consecutive rate hike!

NOVEMBER 26, 2009

PUNTERS BACK HOCKEY FROM $1.80 INTO $1.70 TO LEAD COALITION INTO NEXT ELECTION!

* Election punters have snapped up the $1.80 offered on Centrebet about Shadow Treasurer Joe Hockey leading the imploding Opposition into the next Federal election, pushing him into $1.70, as struggling Leader Malcolm Turnbull continues to drift in the market!

Centrebet media chief and analyst Neil Evans said several thousand had arrived for Mr Hockey today at the odds-on quotes, including one punter who unloaded just under $2,000.00. Mr Turnbull’s turned the full circle, suddenly no-one wants him at $3.45!

“Mr Hockey's reluctant, almost forced admission that he would be prepared to take on the top job in the wake of mass resignations from the front bench over the explosive ETS debate meant Mr Turnbull's leadership is seemingly headed for the scrap-heap!

Long-serving MP Tony Abbott has signalled a leadership challenge to Mr Turnbull if there is no retreat on the ETS deal, but privately Labor would be "laughing all the way to the bank" if Mr Abbott had the reins for the next election. It's always been our belief - and our market has reflected this - that Joe Hockey is the one Coalition politician who could bite into the ALP's significant margin at the next election. Without him as leader, the Coalition are 100/1!"

Mr Hockey has now firmed from $2.05 before the front bench revolt into $1.70, while Mr Turnbull, who had been backed to remain in the leader's job, has blown like a gale down the parliamentary corridor from $2.20 out to $3.45, while Mr Abbott firms from $4.50 into $3.15!

* The ALP, already heavily backed, has firmed into $1.17 on Centrebet to win the next election, with the Coalition now $4.65!

NOVEMBER 25, 2009

LABOR FIRMS TO $1.20 IN HEAD-TO-HEAD BETTING TO WIN NEXT ELECTION!

Leading election bookmaker Centrebet has firmed Labor from $1.23 into $1.20 – its shortest price since winning office two years back – to win the next election in the wake of the unsuccessful leadership spill against under-fire Coalition leader Malcolm Turnbull!

Centrebet media chief and analyst Neil Evans said the Coalition had blown from $4.00 to an all-time high $4.35, with the ALP commanding more than 85 per cent of nearly $100,000.00 traded!

And Shadow Treasurer Joe Hockey and Mr Turnbull are now $2.10 equal favourites on Centrebet to lead the Coalition to the next poll, with long-serving MP Tony Abbott drifting out from $3.75 to $5.00!

“Mr Turnbull’s 48-35 balloted victory is purely a ‘stay of proceedings,’ and given the polling numbers and the party division over the ETS, his leadership could well have its final chapter when parliament resumes in the New Year,” Evans said.

Embarrassing: Windies hit record-high outsider’s price for 1st Test!

The West Indies are set to start their longest head-to-head Test match price in cricketing history at $15.00 or bigger on Centrebet ahead of the first clash at the GABBA against Australia!

Centrebet media chief Neil Evans said Ricky Ponting’s Australians – despite being labelled a B grade squad – has firmed dramatically from $1.33 into $1.20, and is threatening to start shorter as punters, knowing the home side hasn’t lost a Test at the GABBA in 21 years, wipe the Windies’ bid off the planet!

“It’s both unprecedented and rather sad a touring West Indian squad can be completely wiped by the betting world ahead of a once-pedastalled series,” Evans said. “It doesn’t matter whether captain Chris Gayle’s ready to play or not, punters have decided Australia will win this match – and the series – in a cakewalk!”

And the series betting is similarly reflective, with Australia shortening from $1.16 into $1.10, while a Drawn series is quoted at $11.00 and the Windies again a whopping $15.00!

“Hundreds of bets from $100.00 up to $10,000.00 have arrived for the Aussies, and barely $1,000.00 in total for the Windies, despite the huge price. It’s easy to forget the capability of this Australian team is under such scrutiny after the disastrous Ashes loss in England,” Evans added!

Skipper Ricky Ponting has been backed into $3.50 to be the leading Australian run-scorer in the series, while Shivnarine Chanderpaul and Ramnaresh Sarwan are $3.25 equal favourites on the West Indian side.

NOVEMBER 24, 2009

Labor pressure after Coalition stalls on ETS!

Leading political bookmaker Centrebet has eased the well-backed Federal Labor government in betting after its heavily-concessioned Emmissions Trading Scheme deal was sensationally stalled by the Coalition today!

Centrebet media chief and analyst Neil Evans said major concessions and billion-dollar assistance relief measures to the coal, electricity, LNG and low-income household sectors – and the exclusion of agriculture - was a “major conceding of ground” from Prime Minister Rudd in his last-ditch bid to shore up Australia’s position on carbon pollution reduction ahead of the Copenhagen summit, and protect his own climate-clad leadership reputation!

“Coalition leader Malcolm Turnbull will see this as a victory for his leadership and the Opposition’s conflicting commitment, and price-wise in betting, his party is the slight winner from today’s announcement! The real winner, though, is the knockers and sceptics of global warming, while ‘green’ parties will label the PM a cop-out merchant!”

Labor had firmed into $1.22, but is now $1.23, while the Coalition shortens from a high $4.10 back into $4.00!

Nearly $100,000.00 has been wagered on the Federal election with Centrebet already, Labor commanding more than 85 per cent of all monies, although the ALP only leads actual bet numbers by 15 per cent!

“Really from $1.60 down, big punters have continued to target the Rudd government retaining office, especially striking when Mr Turnbull’s struggling leadership is hauled over the coals,” Evans said.

UNLUCKY IF HE GETS BEAT!

• Front-running star Lucky Secret remains $3.60 favourite on Centrebet to win Saturday’s Group 2 Winterbottom Stakes (1200m) at Ascot after drawing gate eight!

Centrebet media chief and race analyst Neil Evans said Lucky Secret should be able to get across to the front with little difficulty, and prove enormously hard to run down around a track that will suit!

“He’s clearly the one to beat, although the rising WA star Waratahs Secret ($4.60) – heavily backed on Centrebet already from $5.50 down – will also be suited, drawn alongside in nine,” Evans said. “The intersting runner is the mare Ortensia facing a stiff task coming back from the mile of the Railway to six furlongs here … and despite drawing the good six barrier, eases from $4.40 out to $5.00!

Evans said he expected Idyllic Prince ($6.00) to ease in betting, especially if the money comes hard for the favourite!

NOVEMBER 23, 2009

BIG MONEY ARRIVES FOR SCANDAL-HIT RANN TO RETAIN GOVT!

• Embattled SA Labor Premier Mike Rann has received an overwhelming boost today in the betting world, with sharp political punters on Centrebet rallying to back his party to retain government at the SA State election next March, including one punter who has bet $10,000.00 at $1.17!

Centrebet media chief and analyst Neil Evans said Labor was already a hot $1.14 favourite to retain office in SA, but he had decided to “test the waters” in the wake of Premier Rann’s sex scandal, easing the ALP to $1.17, and shortening the struggling Liberal Party from $5.10 into $4.65!

“The response was emphatic! Forget about Mr Rann putting the party’s future at the ballot box in doubt,” Evans said. “Straight away we took a bet of $15,000.00 at $1.17 from an inner Adelaide client, and several other bets up to $1,000.00 from across the city. Labor is now back into $1.16, with the legless Liberals easing again to $4.75!”

“It’s a clear-cut sign the Liberal Opposition is still shovelling s… up hill in its bid to overthrow Labor next March! Seemingly, they’ll need a lot more personality and policy change to forge a competitive election, judging from the punters’ reaction today!”

Evans said it was clear too that serious election watchers believe private life controversies have very little effect at the ballot box when it comes to backing election winners!

NOVEMBER 18, 2009

WHAT’S IN THE RBA’S STOCKING ? Does it rise, or stay the same?

Money turns ‘Stay the Same’ way after early surge for 25bp Interest Rate hike!

Financial punters with leading bookmaker Centrebet are swinging back the way of Interest Rates remaining on hold ahead of the critical December 1 Reserve Bank decision after the early money flooded in for a 25bp rate increase!

Centrebet media chief and analyst Neil Evans said a betting war had erupted between the two options, with “nothing else a chance” – but the last few days the financial thinking has shifted dramatically over what the RBA will do with the official cash rate!

“After we opened the 0.25 % increase a $1.40 favourite, we took plenty of early business, including wagers of $3,000.00 at $1.33, $1,000.00 at $1.22 and two separate bets of $1500.00 at $1.20,” Evans said. “But this week, the worm has turned – the ‘Stay the Same’ price drifted from $2.35 right out to $3.65 before a stock-broking client bet $500.00 at that price, then had another $500.00 at the $3.50. A further bet of $1500.00 arrived at $3.00 before another financial client then wagered $1,000.00 at $2.50 on ‘Stay the Same’!

“The battle is on – Stay the Same is back in to $2.40, with the 25bp increase back out now to $1.35! The 50bp rate rise is unwanted by punters, drifting from an opening $7.00 out to $11.00!

GOLD SALUTE $5.00 FAV TO WIN RAILWAY, BUT EARLY MONEY FOR ORTENSIA! WARATAHS SECRET BACKED TO WIN $30K IN WINTERBOTTOM!

Fresh from a luckless third in the feature Emirates Stakes at Flemington last Saturday, Gold Salute is $5.00 favourite with bookmaker Centrebet to win Saturday’s Group 1 Railway Stakes at Ascot in WA!

Shock Emirates Stakes winner All American ($6.50) and the talented Ortensia ($7.00) are on the second and third lines as eastern state invaders again prepare to dominate betting! The shortest WA runner is Grand Nirvana, who had little luck behind Elliotto in the Group 3 lead-up on the weekend, and is quoted at $8.50 on Centrebet, while Elliotto is considered a $14.00 shot!

Centrebet media chief and analyst Neil Evans said the first crop of bets in were for Ortensia at the $7.00! “That looks a good price, although he’ll need luck around the tighter Ascot circuit, but this should be a sensational betting race as the early market indicates,” Evans said.

• Meanwhile, boom WA three-year-old Waratahs Secret has been backed to win $30,000.00 by one Perth punter on Centrebet ahead of the feature Winterbottom Stakes at Ascot on November 28!

“This one client has simply knocked up backing Waratahs Secret, plonking on scores of bets at the $5.50 and unloading nearly $6,000.00 to win $30,000.00!” Evans said. “He’s backed the star youngster from a fair way out, and came storming back in after his last-start romp as a hot favourite when he clocked a very slick time!”

Idyllic Prince and Victorian star Ortensia are on the second line at $6.00, ahead of veteran warrior Apache Cat and the talented Nicconi, both at $6.50.

• MacKinnon Stakes winner Scenic Shot is a $4.40 All-In favourite on Centrebet to win the Kingston Town Classic (1800m) at Ascot on December 5 ahead of Vigor ($7.50)!

• And Gai Waterhouse’s front-running star Faulconbridge is a $3.00 favourite on Centrebet to win tomorrow’s Listed Gosford Gold Cup (2100m).

NOVEMBER 16, 2009

TEBBUTT FIRMS TO FAVOURITE TO TAKE OVER NSW ALP!

• Deputy Premier Carmel Tebbutt is the new $3.50 favourite on Centrebet to be Labor Premier when NSW next votes, scheduled for March 2011!

• But NSW Labor has drifted even further to an embarrassing $4.90 in head-to-head betting, with the Coalition shortening to a red-hot $1.16 fancy! Just last week, one Centrebet client wagered $15,000.00 on a change of government at $1.19! The Coalition currently commands 85 per cent of all bets and money on Centrebet.

Centrebet media chief and analyst Neil Evans said Ms Tebbutt had almost come “the full circle” after she opened $2.10 favourite for the top NSW job right back at the start of the year! “Premier Nathan Rees’ heroic stance at the NSW State Conference to slam the door on the factional dealers within his party was a last-ditch bid to announce personal strength and leadership, but what he has done is leave himself wide open whereby only a dramatic improvement in personal and party polling numbers can save his bacon with still 16 tough months to run in office,” Evans said.

“The pollsters will work overtime, and while the smart political money has never really arrived for Ms Tebbutt, even when she drifted as high as $4.50, she has the surrounding power to make a successful run for Premier if she truly desires!”

Ms Tebbutt, the NSW Health Minister, firms from $3.70 into $3.50 favourite, with Mr Rees remaining on the second line at $3.70, ahead of struggling Planning Minister Kristina Keanneally ($4.15) and former Planning Minister Frank Sartor ($5.25)! One-time Health Minister the scandal-hit John Della Bosca remains an $8.00 chance!

NOVEMBER 13, 2009

RACING NEWS

HAY LIST RAGE

• Sydney punter just outlayed around $5,600.00 across several bets all at the $1.80 on Hay List to win the Group 3 Colonel Reeves Stakes tomorrow! …Perth punter also just had $2,000.00 at the $1.80 …. We’ve taken a tonne of bravery pills betting 2.05 down to 1.80 which is still considered a good price for a horse that will win by panels, considering the 1100m around the tight Ascot circuit is perfect! Just did a percentage run and can’t remember the last time a horse held 99.5 % of all pre-post money!

“We’re betting $4.20 All-In about this horse winning the Group 2 Winterbottom Stakes in a fortnight against some of the best sprinters around. This should be no more than a working gallop!”

• Punters took an immediate liking to the opening $2.75 on Centrebet about form three-year-old Kidnapped ahead of the Group 2 Sandown Guineas (1600m)!

Sharp money came quickly, including $2,000.00 at $2.75 and $1400.00 at the same price! I have no doubt Kidnapped is the measuring stick in the race, but the market suggests both Khas Kura (opened $4.50) and Majestic Music ($5.00) are right in the race. Tempo over the mile will be crucial, with Kidnapped needing a good speed to get home over the top.

For that reason, I found it hard settling on one in the Guineas, but I am very comfortable plonking on Zipping to win the Sandown Classic again, especially after the major disappointment on Derby Day when he was caught up under the barrier at Flemington and subsequently withdrawn from the Group 1 MacKinnon Stakes (2000m)! WA warrior Scenic Shot went on to a dominant win, but just remember, that horse finished behind a hard-finishing Zipping in the Cox Plate, and I’d much rather take the $4.60 about Zipping than the opening $3.50 quote about Scenic Shot!

Of course, the difficulty is lining up these consistent weight-for-age performers against the rising stars like Purple, Miss Maren and Raffaello! Plenty said to me the opening $9.00 about Raffaello was big odds, but despite his strong win last start when he got all the breaks, I don’t like him here over 2400m at weight-for-age. Last-start Flemington winner Purple may be a different story. She’s strong all the way to the wire, and will race near the lead. And some well-connected punters were very happy to step in to the opening $9.00 shortening Purple into $8.00.

There’s also been good wagers on Master O’Reilly around the $6.50 mark, with a couple of punters backing him to win nearly $10,000.00 each. But as honest and consistent as he is, I believe Master O’Reilly is a real risk at weight-for-age having to come from the back of the field!

• The most confident move across the country has come for boom Perth sprinter Hay List ahead of the Group 3 Colonel Reeves Stakes (1100m) at Ascot! Punters moved like wildfire to back Hay List at Centrebet’s opening $2.05 and he shortened quickly into odds-on. One client has wagered nearly $5,000.00 across several bets at $1.90 and $1.85, while other bets include $1500.00 at $1.95, $2,000.00 at $1.95, and $2,000.00 at $1.85. Hay List has tightened into $1.80 favourite, with barely a nickel for any other horse in the race. He’ll win again!

And Grand Nirvana – luckless at his last start – has also been heavily backed from $4.40 down to $4.00 ahead of the Group 3 R. J. Peters Stakes (1500m) – and looks super hard to beat.

NOVEMBER 11, 2009

Senden to tame the Tiger!

Punters on Centrebet are backing only one player to upstage the Tiger Woods glamour show at this week’s Australian Masters – Queenslander John Senden who has firmed from a $21.00 shot into $19.00, having been as short as $16.00 after a flurry of bets!

Centrebet media chief Neil Evans said with punters queuing up to back Tiger from an opening $2.75 favourite on Centrebet into $2.40, nearly every player in the Masters field has drifted out, except for Senden who’s been tipped in some quarters to tame Kingston Heath, and bring down the greatest player the game has seen!

“We’ve taken a tonne of bets on Senden, including $5,000.00 at $19.00, $3,500.00 at $19.00, $2,000.00 at $17.00 and a few close to $1,000.00 at the opening $21.00, and many more smaller wagers across a range of prices,” Evans said. “Senden’s a real pure striker of the ball, and he actually got into $16.00, but the constant flow of bets for Tiger means we are able to keep every other player in the field at the most competitive of prices!”

Senden is a $3.00 equal favourite with Adam Scott to be the leading Queenslander at the Masters, while Geoff Ogilvy is $4.50 to be the top Victorian and youngster James Nitties is a $4.50 favourite to lead home the NSW players!

Evans said scores of bets from $100.00 up to $5,000.00 had arrived for Tiger Woods – his first appearance Down Under since 1998! But Tiger is paying a juicy $5.25 on Centrebet to be leading after the first round.

Further out in the field, high-price betting interest has come for Marc Leishman who has shortened from $41.00 down to $36.00, and Steven Bowditch who has firmed dramatically from $101.00 into $56.00!

25bp hike heads Interest Rate market! Punter slams 15k on SA Labor at $1.15.. but NSW Labor blows to $4.50!

Leading financial bookmaker Centrebet has opened the 25bp increase a $1.40 favourite for the much-anticipated December 1 Reserve Bank interest rate decision!

Centrebet media chief and analyst Neil Evans said the rolling RBA “hikes” of 0.25 per cent were likely to continue, although the odds of the official cash rate staying the same ($2.35) were now much shorter than the feared heavier 50bp rise ($9.00)!

“The RBA’s mooted target cash rate – together with the fact there is no official Reserve Bank meeting scheduled for January - means another rate rise is the favourite,” Evans said. “But we are not completely ruling out the RBA pausing and keeping rates on hold so close to Christmas, and allowing consumers some breathing space. We’ll find out soon which figure is the rightful favourite, but the economy - particularly in key commercial sectors - continues to rebound meaning mortgage holders can expect more pain down the line!”

NEXT OFFICIAL RBA INTEREST RATE MOVE (Sch: Dec 1)

$1.40 INCREASE BY 0.01 – 0.25 % $2.35 STAYS THE SAME $9.00 INCREASE BY 0.26 – 0.50 % $21.00 INCREASE BY MORE THAN 0.50 % $34.00 ANY DECREASE

• Meanwhile, an election punter with Centrebet is in no doubt Labor will retain office at next year’s South Australian State election, unloading $15,000.00 on Mike Rann’s government at the short price of $1.15 to win!

Evans said the bookmaker responded by trimming the ALP to $1.14, with the struggling Liberals now out to $5.10 to win office!

• In NSW, Deputy Premier and Health Minister Carmel Tebbutt has joined embattled Premier Nathan Rees on the front line of betting at $3.70 in the race to see who has the government reins when the State goes to the polls, scheduled for March 2011!

One-time favourite Planning Minister Kristina Kenneally has eased out to $4.00, with the former Planning Minister Frank Sartor ($5.00) continuing to drift! But controversial former Health Minister John Della Bosca continues to attract ‘smart’ money and has shortened again on Centrebet from $9.00 down to $8.00!

• In Federal politics, embattled Coalition leader Malcolm Turnbull has tightened from $2.30 into $2.13 on Centrebet to still be in charge when Australia next votes, although Shadow Treasurer Joe Hockey remains a $1.95 favourite to take over the Coalition leadership!

• And in Tasmania, the Labor government has tightened marginally into $1.68 after dominating the early money, with the Liberals now quoted at $2.15!

NOVEMBER 6, 2009

PUNTER BACKS DELLA TO WIN NEARLY $10,000.00 NOTHING’S DELUSIONAL WHEN YOU’RE AGAINST THE WALL!

• An election punter with leading bookmaker Centrebet has backed controversial former NSW Health Minister John Della Bosca to win nearly $10,000.00 amid claims he continues to rebuild his bid to take over the top job!

Centrebet media chief and political analyst Neil Evans said a surge of money came for Della Bosca at $16.00, forcing his price right into $9.00 – and “well and truly back in the frame” to lead embattled Labor into the next NSW election, 16 months away! “We never really had Della out of the picture. Even when the extra-marital affair blew up and he was embarrassingly forced from his senior portfolio, we only pushed him out to $21.00. He had previously shortened dramatically into $4.00, and was seemingly on the brink of grabbing the top job from under-fire Premier Nathan Rees,” Evans said.

“But even when he was re-posted at 20/1, punters still wanted a piece of it, and now we have this one client who’s backed him to win $10k, amid plenty of more smaller bets as well. I remember, within days of losing his position as Health Minister, Della Bosca was garnishing support, and immediately holding functions to try and re-build his reputation. And, of course, he’s long been thought of as one of the sharpest political minds in the NSW Labor machine. Mix that in with the fact the ALP has now blown to an unwanted $4.35 in head-to-head betting against the Coalition ($1.20) and you can understand why Della is back on the leadership radar!”

Planning Minister Kristina Kenneally and Premier Rees are $3.75 co-favourites with Centrebet ahead of Ms Tebbutt ($4.00)!

Evans said Labor was running out of cards to play even this far out from an election, although the biggest ‘smokey’ in the market was still Carmel Tebbutt. “Carmel’s $4.10 back in to $4.00, and if she decides to make a genuine run for the position, her support is obvious,” he said. “I bumped into a few of the Labor pollies at Flemington on Cup day, and they’re hardly impressed with the state of play in NSW!”

Centrebet has already taken nearly $30,000.00 on the next NSW poll, with nearly 90 per cent of bets for Barry O’Farrell’s Liberal-National Coalition!

OCTOBER 30, 2009

BETTING APPRAISAL AHEAD OF VRC DERBY DAY

MELB CUP LATEST// One big client has thrown a spanner in the works today, plonking $10,000.00 on Efficient at $8.00 to win the Melbourne Cup. This follows 24 hours of very sharp money (nearly $10,000.00) on Viewed from $7.00 down to $5.50 …. Our belief is still that Efficient is more likely to miss the big race! Holding the market as is with Alcopop second-elect at $6.00 … Roman Emperor at $9.00!!

• And further out in the market, new client from Sydney’s east just had $1000.00 each-way on NZ stayer Hoorang to win Melbourne Cup at $201.00! Pretty bold considering he’s 33rd in order of entry and unlikely to gain a start!!! /////

VRC Derby: Shamoline Warrior. A deserved favourite with the perfect preparation. Formline coming in looks superior to the Geelong Classic, although both Rockferry and Our Heir Apparent are genuine dangers! That said, in the last 24 hours Spring Champion Stakes winner Monaco Counsul has been very heavily backed firming from $6.50 into $5.50, with good money coming for Rockferry, including on bet of $3,000.00, who also tightened from a high price of $6.00 back in to $5.50! Our Heir Apparent at around $18.00 is the massive each-way value in the race.

Best Bet: Faint Perfume (Wakeful Stakes). Now that we’ve got to the 2000m in carnival time, it’s showtime for this Bart Cummings filly. She looks beautifully placed against this lot, and I believe she’ll go on to win the Crown Oaks next Thursday!

Lay of the Day: Run For Narra (Wakeful Stakes). Up against the talented Faint Perfume, and while she’s in good form, the inside draw is not ideal for a horse that wants room and would prefer to get to the outside. Under the odds, and a decent risk!

Best backed runners: Rangirangdoo (Mackinnon Stakes): Punters had no hesitation in diving head-first into the opening $4.00 about Rangirangdoo, quickly pushing him into clear $3.80 favourite. Another surge of money has seen him tumble to $3.40. Bets include $5,000.00 at $3.60, $2,500.00 at $3.40 and $2,000.00 at $3.70. Dominant win last start, but this is another level and a further test out to 2000m. First Command (Salinger Stakes): Again backed to the exclusion of every other runner, firming from $2.90 into $2.70! Can dominate from up front again, and owns nearly all of the first $10,000.00 wagered on this race, including $2,000.00 at $2.80, $1500.00 at $2.90 and $1,000.00 at $2.80! Short time ago took a bet of $4,000.00 at $2.70 First Command.

There’s also been a very good move today for Hume in the Lexus Stakes, backed from $7.50 into $6.50, including one bet of $2,500.00 at $7.50, and another of $1,000.00 each-way at the $7.50!

Best Roughie: Britomart (Lexus Stakes): Does get back, but has been hitting the line well in lead-up races, and having little luck! Slick staying bunch here, but is one for the each-way punters at huge odds!

Significant betting moves: Despite our high opinion of Faint Perfume at the 2000m, punters have still stepped in to Wakeful favourite Run For Narra backing it in from $2.80 down to $2.70, including bets of $2,500.00 and $1750.00 at the opening quote!

Last-start winner Typhoon Tracy has dominated the early money at her opening quote of $2.25, including one bet of $5,000.00, ahead of the Group 1 Myer Classic! Now offering $2.35 (Best price around)….Punters have wiped arch-rival Hot Danish, easing from $4.40 out to $4.80, while we will keep Neroli on the safer side around $6.50 believing it is the favourite’s danger!

** Irish Lights has been very well backed TO WIN THE Coolmore Stud Stakes from $8.00 down to $6.00, one bet of $5,000.00 at $6.50, … although no surprise seeing we layed him big time from the off!!!