COALITION HOLDS FAVOURITISM AFTER PRESS CLUB DEBATE!

• The Coalition has confirmed clear favouritism on Centrebet to form a minority government after the four balance of power MPs appeared at the National Press Club in Canberra!

Centrebet’s Neil Evans said a tough-rated punter immediately had $2,000.00 on the Coalition at $1.64 immediately after the panel discussion ended after there had been some money for an easing ALP during the Press Club appearance by Independents Tony Windsor, Rob Oakeshott and Bob Katter and newly-elected Green Adam Bandt!

“I think the powerful insight by the maverick Bob Katter into the economic frailties dropped on the national economy by Labor’s proposed heavy mining taxes resonated somewhat, although most punters probably still think the Independents have a moral and constitutional obligation to their constituents to reject Labor’s plea” Evans said. “The debate over the sensitive climate change and carbon price legislation only really served to underline what a mess the Government had made over its selling of such a reform, and ultimately its almost unforgivable backflip on a “high priority” ETS scheme!”

Evans said since the Coalition drew level with Labor at $1.88 favourite last night, bets on the Coalition include $2,000.00 and $1,000.00 both at $1.88, $1,000.00 at $1.82 and even $1,500.00 at $1.58! “But the Coalition eased to $1.64 this morning after a series of bets up to $1,000.00 again arrived for Labor. The big 24-hour move for the Coalition was sparked by a $10,000.00 wager yesterday at $2.35 and came as Labor lost control of the Tasmanian seat of Dension to Independent Andrew Wilkie, and Coalition candidates started to pull clear in final counting in the vital seats of Hasluck (WA) and Boothby (SA)!

“Given the policy and political arguments between the major parties and the Independents are so fragmented, the Coalition’s likely numbers advantage in Lower House seats, and its dominant percentage of the national primary vote (44 to 38) from Saturday’s poll means Tony Abbott is within touch distance of the Lodge,” Evans said.

And former union heavyweight and Labor powerbroker Bill Shorten remains a $2.75 favourite on Centrebet – ahead of Ms Gillard ($3.00) to be Labor leader at the next scheduled Federal Election!

Evans said nearly $200,000.00 had been bet since late Sunday on who would form a minority government after around $5 million was held on Saturday’s election!

AUGUST 20, 2010

HUNG PARLIAMENT AWAITS AS PUNTERS LAUNCH MASSIVE COALITION FIGHTBACK!

Labor’s Lower House majority is on the brink of being torn to shreds, and can only confidently win 74 seats, according to Centrebet’s media chief and analyst Neil Evans who says the government must retain at least Bonner or Petrie in Qld and possibly win Boothby in SA from the Coalition to have any hope of scraping back!

The claim comes as punters continue piling into Centrebet to back the Coalition which has tumbled down from $3.72 overnight to $2.70 after hundreds of bets from $500.00 up to $10,000.00, and nearly 100k in total stakes arrived up until lunchtime today! In the same time Labor has blown from a very heavily-backed $1.27 favourite out to $1.45 – by far the highest price Julia Gillard has been since becoming Prime Minister! Evans said the Hung Parliament has shortened from $3.40 in to $2.75 in 24 hours!

As the smart money confirms the Liberals are sweeping through western and southern Sydney, Labor can only bank on 23/24 seats in NSW, and as few as 10 in Qld and just three in WA as Liberal Ken Hyatt continues to be heavily backed to win the marginal seat of Hasluck!

“Both the crucial seats of Bennelong and Lindsay look “gone” for Labor, and the government’s majority is in tatters,” Evans said. John Alexander is now $1.33 to beat Maxine McKew, while Fiona Scott has roared into $1.72 favourite to take Lindsay for the Liberals!

“It seems more and more likely we are in for the first Hung Parliament in 70 years, and Labor could well have to rely on Greens candidate Adam Bandt if he takes Melbourne to fall back into power!”

• AFTER BEING TWO SETS DOWN IN THE BATTLE OF BENNELONG, JOHN ALEXANDER NOW HAS A DOUBLE BREAK OF SERVE IN THE FIFTH AND FINAL SET AND IS AMAZINGLY SERVING WITH NEW BALLS FOR THE MATCH! HE LEADS 1-6, 3-6, 7-6, 6-4, 5-3!

Evans said the head-to-head betting was only now catching up with the very smart money across Australia’s marginal seats! “It was only all those early punters – who wagered bets of 100k, 60k, 59k, 40k, 35k and 30k plus countless more – that has kept Labor’s price short,” he said. “The seat money has always had the Coalition gaining ground, and bet numbers are now running at 3:1 the Opposition’s way!”

“Incredibly, Labor was $1.52 when Kevin Rudd was axed, before Julia Gillard shortened from $1.38 into $1.24 at the height of her popularity! At that stage, the Coalition went from $2.95 out to a long $4.00 outsider, but as we all know, six weeks is an eternity for a government in economic disarray!” Evans said.

AUGUST 19, 2010

Federal Election - KEY SEAT MOVES TODAY

Labor’s Darren Cheeseman has seemingly fought off the challenge from former TV presenter Sarah Henderson in the crucial Victorian marginal seat of Corangamite, according to the money on Centrebet!

Media chief and political analyst Neil Evans said there had been an influential and significant “run” on Cheeseman in the last 24 hours, including one smart bet of $8,000.00 at $1.62, and several others up to $2,000.00 at $1.60 and $1.58! “Cheeseman has rocketed into $1.52 favourite, while Ms Henderson, who at one stage in early betting got in to $1.97, is now out the door to $2.38!

Liberal challenger and former Davis Cup star John Alexander’s withering betting burst is so strong, money is even coming for him to win back the crunch Sydney seat of Bennelong on first preferences! Evans said scores of bets came again for Alexander today, including one regular electoral client of $2,500.00, and he’s tumbled into $1.54 favourite. Sitting Labor MP Maxine McKew cannot stop the “bleeding,” and having been $1.58 a week ago, she’s been wiped by the money out to $2.38! Bet numbers are running Alexander’s way by 3:1!

Labor’s Laura Smyth has a short time ago claimed favouritism to win the tight Victorian seat of La Trobe, firming today from $1.98 into $1.80! Evans said the money had “completely dried up” for sitting Liberal Jason Wood who has blown from $1.57 out to an under-fire $1.92! Smyth was backed heavily from $2.28 down yesterday, and more money today, including one bet of $5,000.00, and a short time ago two of $1,000.00 each at $1.92, means she has taken 95 per cent of the money in the last 48 hours!

But Labor can kiss goodbye to its chances of winning ultra-marginal Macarthur in Sydney’s south-west! The money has been so dominant in the last few days for the Liberal’s Russell Matheson he has tumbled from $1.68 into $1.20! Some of Australia’s most highly-rated political punters have backed Matheson, included in a “conveyor belt” of bets, $2,500.00, $2,000.00, $1500.00 and scores of wagers up to $1,000.00! The money is now running 92/8 the Coalition’s way!

The Liberal’s Craig Kelly remains a very heavily backed $1.36 (opened $1.80) favourite to win the tight southern Sydney seat of Hughes! One punter has 12 separate wagers totalling nearly $8,000.00 on Kelly, while another tough punter has bet $2,000.00! Labor’s Brent Thomas overall is $1.90 out to $2.96!

Another surge of money, including one bet of $1,000.00 and several between $250.00 and $750.00 has seen the LNP’s Warren Entsch tighten from $1.28 into $1.26 today to win back Leichhardt in Qld’s Far North! Evans said the money – nearly $22,000.00 overall - underlines this could be one of the most vicious swings away from Labor across the country, with the ALP’s 4.1 % margin for encumbent Jim Arneman ($3.60) set to be “torn to shreds!”

It seems the ALP is on target repeat a clean sweep of the 5 Federal seats in Tasmania after a huge run of money for Geoff Lyons today to retain the volatile marginal seat of Bass! “After there was a good early move for the Liberal’s Steve Titmus, the last 48 hours has solely belonged to Labor, Lyons has tumbled in from $1.70 to $1.32 after scores and score of bets, including $7,000.00 at $1.63, $1,000.00 at $1.60 and a short time ago $2,500.00 at $1.42! Labor now holds 85 per cent of the money, with Titmus drifting from $2.06 out to $3.15! The other four Tasmania seats are certain to go to Labor!

Adam Bandt remains a $1.44 favourite to create history and win the Victorian seat of Melbourne for the Greens! He holds a 75/25 split of money, including two separate bets of $3,000.00 and $2,500.00! Labor’s Cath Bowtell blew out to $2.90, but is back in now to $2.68!

The Coalition is gone in the marginal Victorian seat of McEwen. The money for Labor’s Rob Mitchell is so dominant, he’s closed to a hot $1.24 favourite, with the Liberal’s Cameron Caine unwanted by punters and blown to $3.75! Bet numbers are running a staggering 8:1 Labor’s way!

In the marginal SA seat of Boothby, Labor is still not out of the running after good money arrived today for Annabel Digance! Evans said nearly 2k in bets arrived as she closed from $2.65 back into $2.54, while sitting Liberal Andrew Southcott eased slightly from $1.46 out to $1.47!

The Qld marginal seat of Bonner may also be in doubt for Labor, with Liberal challenger Ross Vasta firming today from $2.30 into $2.07 after a surge of money, including one punter staking $2,000.00. Labor’s Kerry Rea, who opened $1.40 favourite, is now out to $1.68!

Money continues to pour in for Liberal Dr Andrew Laming to win the ultra marginal Qld seat of Bowman! “This looks over the line for the LNP, Dr Laming is now into a red-hot $1.15 after a rapid-fire $10k in bets! Labor’s Jenny Peters has blown right out to $4.75, and is trailling in bet numbers on a 5:1 ratio!

With nearly $25,000.00 bet into the vital Qld marginal of Dawson, the LNP’s George Christensen is maintaining favouritism at $1.62 (in from $1.65) against Whitsunday Mayor and Labor candidate Mike Brunker at $2.18 (out from $2.12). “This will be tight, although the smart money tells us Mr Christensen will hang on,” Evans said.

Labor will win the marginal Victorian seat of Deakin, with candidate Mike Symon amazingly holding 92 percent of a near $10,000.00 book! What looked a tightish seat at the start has been blown apart and all Labor’s way, with Symon firming from $1.70 into $1.32 and holding the bet numbers on a 7:1 ratio!

Liberal frontbencher Peter Dutton has firmed further from $1.32 into $1.28 to hold the marginal Qld seat of Dickson, with Labor’s Fiona McNamara out from $3.20 to $3.40! With nearly $13,000.00 traded, Dutton has the overall split by 85/15!

Ken Wyatt is still holding $1.57 favouritism in the pivotal WA marginal of Hasluck! While the bet numbers are running 2:1 his way and the overall hold is 60/40, Labor encumbent Sharryn Jackson has fought back, and is now priced at $2.28!

AUGUST 18, 2010

Federal Election

LABOR CLINGS TO SINGLE SEAT MAJORITY AS ALEXANDER TAKES FAVOURITISM IN BENNELONG!

Labor is clinging to as little as a single seat majority ahead of Saturday’s Federal election as former tennis pro John Alexander takes favouritism to snatch Bennelong in a remarkable betting turnaround, according to Centrebet’s media chief and political analyst Neil Evans

• THE 5 SET SHOWDOWN IN BENNELONG HAS SEEN THE COALITION BREAK SERVE IN THE FIFTH SET! AFTER BEING CANED IN THE OPENING 2 SETS, ALEXANDER HAS CHARGED BACK, & NOW LEADS 1-6, 3-6, 7-6, 6-4, 3-2

Despite Labor maintaining clear favouritism, and the Coalition threatening to get right back into the fight in head-to-head betting, Mr Evans refutes the latest JWS Research seat poll numbers that say the Labor govt could somehow lose critical Sydney marginals Bennelong and Lindsay and still hold a 4-seat majority!

“It’s clear to me that if the government gives back both these vital seats, it will struggle to form a majority government,” he said. “For a start, the polling company totalled Labor on 79 and the Coalition 68 – which adds up to 147, even though there are three Independents certain to retain their seats, and the Greens’ Adam Bandt heading for victory in Melbourne! That leaves the major parties playing for only 146 seats when I went to school!”

Evans said their assessment of key marginals across Qld, NSW and even Victoria was literally “off the money!”

JWS is tipping Labor captures the key NSW seats of Cowper and Paterson, yet Evans said, the National’s Luke Hartsuyker ($1.60 into $1.15) is one of the most heavily backed candidates in the country, while Liberal Bob Baldwin has shortened from $1.55 into $1.32 to win Paterson. “Against that, to say Labor will lose the seat of Brisbane is not supported.

Arch Bevis remains a $1.40 favourite, and there’s been no real move for Liberal challenger Theresa Gambaro ($2.77)! Labor should pick up McEwen in Victoria, with Rob Mitchell ($1.70 into $1.30) very heavily backed to beat Cameron Caine ($3.10), but JWS says La Trobe and Dunkley are going to the ALP as well, yet the Lib’s Jason Wood ($1.57) is highly fancied by punters and Bruce Billson is a red-hot $1.18 to retain Dunkley,” Evans said. “And JWS has Boothby going to Labor – we still have the Lib’s Andrew Southcott a $1.46 favourite!

A short time ago after several thousand more in very smart money former tennis pro John Alexander seized favouritism at $1.77 to win back Bennelong for the Coalition! “This is the biggest turnaround across the nation! Maxine McKew is now the narrow $1.98 outsider after punters turned this crunch and historic seat on its head in the last four days!”

Outright bets have arrived this morning for the Coalition of $5,000.00, $2,000.00 and $1,000.00 at $3.62, but last night wagers of $13,000.00 and $11,000.00 arrived for Labor at $1.28!

In continued betting support today, the Liberal’s former Greenway MP Louise Markus is now $1.34 (from $1.47) to win the vital far-western Sydney seat of Macquarie after bets of $1500.00 at $1.52, $1,000.00 at $1.50 and another surge from a regular client from Sydney’s east who has unloaded nearly $5,000.00 across 12 separate wagers on Ms Markus from $1.70 down to her current price! “Not only does this punter think Ms Markus will win, he believes she’s been well over the odds for weeks,” Evans said.

The news is equally bad for Labor in the south-western Sydney seat of Macarthur where ALP candidate Nicholas Bleasdale has blown from $1.92 out to $3.10 as further smart money for Liberal Russell Matheson has seen him rocket in from $1.80 into $1.33!

And in the critical south-western Sydney seat of Hughes, the Liberal’s Craig Kelly has firmed from $1.75 into $1.70 after several thousand dollars in “connected” money was wagered!

AUGUST 4, 2010

ELECTION UPDATE

• An astonishing betting change has occurred in the crucial Central Qld seat of Dawson, with nearly $15,000.00 in smart bets arriving for new Labor candidate and Whitsunday Mayor Mike Brunker who has firmed today from a clear $2.40 outsider back into $2.10! • Centrebet media chief and analyst Neil Evans said one Qld punter bet $8,000.00 across two bets at $2.40 and $2.30, while another client had $3,000.00 at $2.20, as well as a string of other smaller bets up to $1,000.00! • Evans said previously the LNP’s Mackay City Councillor George Christensen had powered into a clear $1.50 favourite (from $1.80) after attracting a series of wagers, including smart money from Canberra! Today, Christensen still holds favouritism, but has eased on Centrebet from $1.50 out to $1.65!!

DAWSON – QLD

$1.65 GEORGE CHRISTENSEN (out from $1.50) $2.10 MIKE BRUNKER (in from $2.40)

• In the historic crucial north-western Sydney seat of Bennelong, former tennis pro John Alexander has hit back in the last 24 hours, firming from $3.00 back into $2.90 after nearly 50 individual bets, but all the smart money remains on sitting Labor candidate Maxine McKew who eases slightly from $1.34 out to $1.36!

BENNELONG – NSW

$1.36 MAXINE McKEW (out from $1.34) $2.90 JOHN ALEXANDER (in from $3.00)

• In the vital Victorian seat of Corangamite, Labor’s Darren Cheeseman has crucially shortened back into $1.70 after a surge of money today against Liberal opponent and former TV presenter Sarah Henderson who is now odds against at $2.04!

CORANGAMITE – VIC

$1.70 DARREN CHEESEMAN (in from $1.75) $2.04 SARAH HENDERSON (out from $1.97)

• In one of the most fluctuating betting seats in the country – the famed bellwether seat of Eden-Monaro in southern NSW - Liberal challenger David Gazard has firmed from $3.10 back into $2.90 today! Evans said bet numbers were running neck-and-neck, although the bigger and smarter money is still with ALP encumbent Mike Kelly!

EDEN-MONARO – NSW

$1.36 MIKE KELLY (out from $1.34) $2.90 DAVID GAZARD (in from $3.10)

• And a ray of light for Labor’s embattled sitting MP Jim Tounour in the vital Far Nth Qld and Gulf seat of Leichhardt! A regular Nth Qld client has unloaded $2,000.00 across three separate bets on Turnour forcing his price from $2.40 back into $2.35! This puts the brakes on the previously heavily-backed returning LNP challenger Warren Entsch who had tumbled from $1.85 into $1.50 at the height of some very smart money! Entsch has eased out to $1.53 today, with nearly $10,000.00 traded in the seat! Turnour won the seat for the ALP in 2007 on a record 14.3% swing, and now holds it by a 4.1% margin!

LEICHHARDT – QLD

$1.53 WARREN ENTSCH (out from $1.50) $2.35 JIM TURNOUR (in from $2.40)

• The Liberal Party’s great hope in the threadbare western Sydney seat of Macquarie – former Greenway MP Louise Markus - continues to dominate the betting! With redistributions and the retirement of veteran Labor MP Bob Debus, new candidate Susan Templeman has been wiped by punters, with Ms Markus firming further today from $1.75 into $1.72! Templeman is now out to $2.00, and the “crunch” seat looks headed to the Coalition! Bet numbers are running 5:1 Ms Markus’ way!

MACQUARIE – NSW

$1.72 LOUISE MARKUS (in from $1.75) $2.00 SUSAN TEMPLEMAN (out from $1.96)

• The pivotal Nth Qld seat of Hinkler looks safe for the Coalition after more money arrived today for long-serving National MP Paul Neville who has firmed under a weight of money from $1.50 into $1.35 to increase his slender 1.2% margin against Labor’s Fraser Coast councillor Belinda McNeven!

HINKLER – QLD

$1.35 PAUL NEVILLE (in from $1.50) $2.95 BELINDA McNEVEN (out from $2.40)

• In the tight western Brisbane seat of Ryan, the LNP’s Jane Prentice continues to dominate bet numbers by 4:1 and has firmed today from $1.50 into $1.48 to retain the seat against Labor’s Steve Miles, despite redistributions cutting the Liberal Party’s margin from 3.8% back to a very narrow 1.2%

RYAN – QLD

$1.48 JANE PRENTICE (in from $1.50) $2.47 STEVE MILES (out from $2.40)

• Breakthrough news for the Coalition in the now notionally-Labor WA seat of Swan in central Perth, with sitting Liberal Steve Irons firming today from $1.47 into $1.44 after smart wagers of $1,000.00 and $800.00 both at $1.47! Labor rival, asbestos compensation lawyer Tim Hammond, has eased from $2.50 out to $2.67, and is trailling the bet numbers by a 4:1 ratio. This is a must-win for the Coalition!!

SWAN – WA

$1.44 STEVE IRONS (in from $1.47) $2.60 TIM HAMMOND (out from $2.52)

• Labor’s bold bid to steal the ultra-marginal eastern Adelaide seat of Sturt from Liberal frontbencher Christopher Pyne has officially run aground, with ALP candidate and University Criminal professor Rick Sarre completely wiped by punters! Nearly $15,000.00 has been bet into this book, with Mr Pyne holding 99 per cent! Despite a 0.9% threadbare margin, he has officially firmed from an opening $1.55 into $1.25, while Prof Sarre has blown from $2.32 out to $3.50!

STURT – SA

$1.25 CHRISTOPHER PYNE (in from $1.55) $3.50 RICK SARRE (out from $2.32)

• And more money today for the Liberal’s great hope in the marginal Labor seat of Bass in Tasmania, with Steve Titmus firming from $2.16 into $2.05! New Labor candidate, former Launceston Hospital business manager Geoff Lyons is now out to $1.68 after opening $1.58! One bet of $1,000.00 on Titmus at $2.12!

BASS – TAS

$1.68 GEOFF LYONS (out from $1.63) $2.05 STEVE TITMUS (in from $2.16)

AUST FED ELECTION – SCH AUG 21

$1.52 LABOR $2.50 COALITION

LINE

$1.85 LABOR ( - 5.5 seats) $1.85 COALITION ( + 5.5 seats)

• Meanwhile, Labor has drifted again from $1.52 out to $1.54 on Centrebet, after punters charged into the $2.50 offered about the Coalition winning the election, pushing them back in to $2.45! Bets in the last 24 hours for the Coalition include $7k at $2.46 from Brisbane, $1500 at $2.46 from Sydney, $5k at $2.50 from Sydney and $4k and $2k at $2.50 from Brisbane! But bigger Labor bets in the same time include $2.5k at $1.52 from Perth, $5k at $1.54 from Canberra and $2.3k at $1.52 from Brisbane! • Bet numbers across the outright, Line and all seat betting have gone past 3000 individual wagers. While total turnover is now pushing $2 million! In 2007, Centrebet held around $5.3 million across the Federal Election!

• And more embarrassment for the NSW Labor Party seven months out from an election blowing to an all-time high of $6.50 (from $6.00) on Centrebet, with the Coalition now into an almost unbackable $1.09 (from $1.11)!

JULY 28, 2010

NRL – RD 21 – CENTREBET WEDNESDAY ACTION!!

·        Big regular punter has just placed a two-leg multi bet:       $75,000.00 on Parramatta ( - 3.5) into Bulldogs ( + 5.0) at a two-leg price of $3.62!! The same punter has also wagered $25,000.00 on the Broncos with 2.5 start against the Dragons at $1.90!

·        Also another client bet $5,000.00 on Wests Tigers at $1.30 to win – but there was also a wager of $25,000.00 on the Sharks with 11.5 start at $1.90!!

CENTERBET: Key seat swings in QLD & NSW!

The latest money trails with top election bookmaker Centrebet prove the Liberal-National Coalition is on track to win back a stack of key seats across Qld, but the Opposition is stumbling in key seats in and around the western and southern fringes of Sydney that it must also dominate to win power at the August 21 Federal Election!

Centrebet Media Chief & primary analyst Neil Evans said the Coalition was gaining ground in marginal seats around the country, especially Qld, but is still a little way off claiming enough dominance to tip Labor out after one term!

“Consider, in NSW marginals the right money for the ALP is very strong for Maxine McKew to retain Bennelong, Mike Kelly to retain the bellwether seat of Eden-Monaro, Janelle Safin to win the north coast seat of Page, and Craig Thompson to win against the Central Coast grain and retain Dobell,” Evans said.

“But against that, Darren Jameson has been heavily backed and is storming to victory for the Liberals in the key Central Coast seat of Robertson, the National’s Luke Hartsuyker remains one of the country’s best backed candidates to win Cowper, punters have thrown their support behind Liberal Joanna Gash to claim Gilmore, Bob Baldwin is dominating the money in Paterson, while much-travelled Liberal Louise Markus has surged into narrow favouritism to claim the vital western Sydney seat of Macquarie!”

But Evans said Qld has become a clear hunting ground for the Liberal National opposition!

“Already, Andrew Laming has been backed from $1.80 into $1.60 to re-claim Bowman – Australia’s most marginal seat, the LNP’s George Christensen is dominating the money in the tight seat of Dawson, heavily-backed Ken O’Dowd seems set to prise the crunch seat of Flynn from Labor’s Chris Trevor, Paul Neville has been very well backed to win Hinkler for the LNP, as has Jane Prentice in the tight seat of Ryan.

“The biggest statement, though, comes in the bellwether Far Nth Qld seat of Leichhardt where despite needing to peg back a 4.5% Labor margin, very smart punters have backed the LNP’s Warren Entsch from $1.83 into $1.57 to claim victory!”

But, Evans said, bucking the LNP trend in Qld is Labor’s Brett Raguse, well-backed to retain Forde, Jon Sullivan taking all the money to win Longman, while Peter Dutton and Fiona McNamara in Dickson and Ewan Jones and Tony Murphy in Herbert are all locked in a battle royal for supremacy with money going both ways!

• THE BETTING RESURGANCE FOR THE COALITION HAS CONTINUED TODAY, WITH SCORES OF BETS ARRIVING LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING, INCLUDING $2,000.00, $1500.00 AND TWO OF $1,000.00 AT $3.80, THEN A SHORT TIME AGO SEPARATE WAGERS OF $5,000.00 AND $3,000.00 – BOTH AT $3.65!!

• THE COALITION HAS FOUGHT BACK, AND SHORTENED TO $3.55, WHILE LABOR – WITH PM JULIA GILLARD REELING FROM IN-PARTY LEAKS AND POLICY STUMBLES – EASES DRAMATICALLY FROM $1.24 OUT TO $1.27! LAST NIGHT, THOUGH, A BET OF $5,000.00 WAS ACCEPTED ON LABOR AT $1.25!!

• THE LINE – 11.5 SEATS BEFORE THE GREAT DEBATE – HAS BEEN CUT B ACK WITH THE COALITION GETTING JUST 8.5 SEATS START IN A HEAD-TO-HEAD SEAT BATTLE!

JULY 19, 2010

ELECTION UPDATE

A top-notch Centrebet political client from Sydney’s inner-west has unloaded $35,000.00 from $3.80 down to $3.50 on Tony Abbott’s Coalition storming to victory in the Federal Election on August 21!

But countering that soon after today came ‘smart’ client bets of $10,000.00 at $1.28 and $5,500.00 at $1.26 on the Labor government to retain power!

Centrebet’s media chief and primary analyst Neil Evans said day two of the campaign had brought nearly $150,000.00 in money across head-to-head betting and key marginal seats as turnover pushed towards the $1 million mark!

“I’ve been saying for days the Coalition is over the odds, yet it still remains very tough to see where they can generate the uniform swing needed to take power. I have no doubt Labor will hold on to favouritism, but it’s a matter of what price they go to the barrier,” Evans said.

Meanwhile, it seems Labor can forget about winning the NSW Mid North Coast seat of Cowper! Despite the Nationals sitting on a threadbare 1.2% margin, encumbent Luke Hartsuyker has been sensationally backed from $1.70 into $1.50, with around $12,000.00 in bets taken, including one of $7,000.00 at $1.70! Labor’s Paul Sefky has blown from $2.10 out to $2.40!

In WA, the seat of Canning looks destined to stay in Liberal hands, with veteran sitting MP Don Randall heavily backed from $1.70 into $1.63, after scores of bets including one of $5,000.00 at $1.66! Not one penny has been invested on Labor’s Allanah McTiernan! And in Cowan, sitting Liberal Luke Simpkins seems certain to increase his 1.3% margin after taking nearly all the first $10,000.00 in wagers, including one of $6,000.00 at $1.50! He’s shortened to $1.47, with Labor’s Chas Hopkins looking close to hopeless at $2.50!

In the crunch Victorian seat of La Trobe, the Liberal’s Jason Wood has firmed from $1.65 into $1.60 after a bet of $5,000.00 led a rush of money. Labor lawyer Laura Smyth ($2.20) is so far punting friendless!

The Greens looks set to capture Lindsay Tanner’s old seat of Melbourne off the ALP, with Lower House hopeful Adam Bandt firming from $1.80 into $1.75 after a series of bets, the biggest $2,500.00 from a political insider in the heart of the electorate!

But Labor’s Janelle Safin has attracted the first $2,000.00 in two separate bets in the seat of Page, and she remains a rock-solid $1.55 favourite on Centrebet to win the NSW North Coast electorate!

The $1.85 seat Line on Centrebet now has labor giving up just 10.5 seats, cut back from 12.5!

JULY 5, 2010

25K WAGER LANDS ON RED-HOT LABOR!!

• A Brisbane punter with Centrebet has just unloaded $25,000.00 on Labor at $1.29 to win the up-coming Federal election! • Labor is trimmed into $1.28, with the Coalition easing further from $3.50 out to $3.60! • Election Date betting has resumed on Centrebet, with Aug 28 still a heavily-backed $1.80 favourite ahead of Aug 14 at $3.50 and Aug 21 at $5.00! September 4 has firmed today from $10.00 into $8.00! • Betting on the $1.85 Line now sees the ALP giving the Coalition a 13.5 seat start!

Quote: “The tidal of money for Julia Gillard’s party continues, although I now fear the gap between the two major parties is too big,” Evans said. “Surely the hood-winked elevation of one flame-haired woman cannot turn conservative ambition upside down so quickly. Tony Abbott needs to throw a World Series-style curve ball, and throw it very bloody quickly!”

JUNE 24, 2010

LABOR STORMS BACK INTO $1.38 FAVOURITE UNDER GILLARD GOVT!

The once under-pressure Labor government – a $1.50 chance to win the next Federal Election last night – has now stormed into $1.38 favourite on Centrebet to be returned to power under a Julia Gillard-led party!

And the Coalition, which had enjoyed great betting momentum in the last month tightening right in to $2.52, has dramatically eased out to $2.95 as Opposition leader Tony Abbott prepares to take on the one Labor identity he would have rather side-stepped!

The Line betting on actual seats – which was just – 2.5 seats when the markets were suspended last night – re-opened at – 5.5 seats, but just a short time ago, a regular election punter bet $3,300.00 on Labor (- 5.5 seats) at $1.85! The seat count Line is now – 6.5!

“This is the most extraordinary decline of a once popular PM in Australian political history, and proves our “very connected” clients who wanted to boldly back Ms Gillard to become PM as far back as February have been proven stunningly correct!” Centrebet media chief and analyst Neil Evans said. Ms Gillard was a hot $1.18 fancy to slaughter Mr Rudd ($4.50) if the proposed ballot had of occurred!

Four months after a small group of punters sensationally backed Julia Gillard on Centrebet to become Prime Minister BEFORE the next Federal Election, their vision and "mail" has been realised in spectacular fashion!

Evans recalled how earlier in the year, 'connected' punters rang the Centrebet office pleading for a market on Ms Gillard becoming PM before Australians went to the polls! "One client, in the biggest bets on Ms Gillard, staked $2,500.00 in a series of wagers around the $3.75 and $4.00 mark, in what now appears to be an incredible bit of work!" Evans said.

"The amazing thing was at the time we were working on a timeless 'First Female PM' market, in which Ms Gillard would be the obvious favourite, but we were staggered when the clients told us they wanted to back her to take over from Mr Rudd BEFORE the election!"

Soon after, in a swathe of national publicity including on Channel Nine's Today program, Ms Gillard denied the move, claiming "punters have done their dough!" "Now we know the punters who have done their dough are the ones who naturally went the other way, with a heap of money following to say there was no way in the world a once popular first-term Labor PM could be torn down by his own team in an election year!" Evans added.

"Only 24 hours ago, a big election client bet $15,000.00 on Labor to win at $1.50 - I wonder if he knew Ms Gillard was formally on her way in!"

Ms Gillard's price on Centrebet wavered from as short as $3.50 out to as high as $5.25 at a time when analysts, commentators and even the Labor machine were flatly claiming such a change was just not possible!

JUNE 9, 2010

TITANS & RAIDERS BIG FIRMERS

• The Gold Coast Titans and Canberra Raiders have both been heavily backed on Centrebet to win this weekend in the NRL split round!

Centrebet’s Neil Evans said Gold Coast had been rushed by punters against a badly under-strength Manly side, firming from $1.53 into $1.48, with most of the action at the Line, among the scores of bets $25,000.00 at $1.90 ( - 4.5), $5,000.00 at $1.90 ( - 4.5) and $2,500.00 at $1.90 ( - 5.5)! The Line is now out to – 6.0.

Manly has blown from an opening $2.55 out to $2.66!

• Meanwhile, Canberra is heavily fancied heading to North Qld, shortening from $1.72 into $1.53! Again most of the action at the Line, including bets of $15,000.00 at $1.90 ( - 1.5) and $12,000.00 at $1.90 ( - 2.5)! The Line is now out to – 4.5, with the Cowboys drifting heavily from an opening $2.11 out to $2.50!

• Other big early bets include $12,000.00 on the Storm at $1.90 ( + 2.5) and $20,000.00 on the Roosters at $1.90 ( - 2.0)!

MAY 28, 2010

PUNTER WAGERS $75K ON WESTS TIGERS BY 7 OR MORE!

• A big-time Centrebet client has bet $75,000.00 at $1.91 on the Wests Tigers covering a - 6.5 Line in tonight’s NRL clash against the NZ Warriors!

Centrebet media chief Neil Evans said the Sydney punter’s big wager ignited a huge drive on the Wests Tigers, pushing their outright price from $1.45 into $1.40! “The Line has been dynamited from an opening – 5.5 at the start of the week now out to – 7.5,” Evans said. “Punters believe now the Tigers have got back to winning ways, the Warriors might be walking into an ambush, especially with a couple of Origin hopefuls sweating on big performances to force their way into the Blues side for Origin 2 in a few weeks!”

Evans said another regular NRL punter soon after bet $6,000.00 on the Wests Tigers ( -7.5) at $1.91!

In the other Friday night clash, the Dragons remain favourite on Centrebet, but have eased from $1.52 out to $1.54 with Parramatta firming from $2.56 in to $2.50!

MAY 27, 2010

60K WAGER AT $1.47 SAYS RUDD’S LABOR WILL WIN AGAIN!
PUNTER VOTE OF NO CONFIDENCE IN ABBOTT!

A CENTREBET CLIENT HAS JUST PLACED A WAGER OF $60,000.00 AT $1.47 ON FEDERAL LABOR TO RETAIN OFFICE AT THE NEXT ELECTION, FOLLOWING ON FROM AN EARLIER BET OF $10,000.00 AT THE SAME PRICE! LABOR IS NOW BACK INTO $1.43, WHILE THE COALITION - THAT HAD BEEN VERY WELL BACKED FOR WEEKS IN TO AN ALL-TIME LOW PRICE OF $2.61 - IS NOW BACK OUT TO $2.72!

THE BIG MONEY PUTS AN ENORMOUS BRAKE ON THE MONEY FOR THE OPPOSITION! UNTIL THIS LATEST BET, THE COALITION HAD TAKEN NEARLY 85 PER CENT OF THE LAST $50,000.00, BUT THE OVERALL HOLD HAS NOW SWUNG DRAMATICALLY BACK THE GOVERNMENT’S WAY TO THE TUNE OF 70/30!

Quote: Punters don’t make such huge investments a long way from polling day without being super confident! This is the best bit of news under-siege PM Kevin Rudd has had all year,” Centrebet media chief and analyst Neil Evans said. “He is under all sorts of economic and social pressure, but this sort of smart bet from an election client tells us the Coalition may still have pulled the wrong rein in electing Tony Abbott to the leadership rather than the more neutral and voter-friendly Joe Hockey! I have no doubt that if Hockey was the leader, the Coalition would be a much shorter price, and Labor would be in enormous trouble,” Evans said.

NEARLY 2000 INDIVIDUAL BETS HAVE BEEN MADE BY CLIENTS AROUND AUSTRALIA, AND EVEN OVERSEAS!

FEDERAL ELECTION BETTING HAS NOW GONE PAST THE $300,000.00 MARK!

AUST FED ELECTION (Sch 2010/11)

$1.43 LABOR (in from $1.47)
$2.72 COALITION (out from $2.61)

MAY 24, 2010

MONEY RUNNING 14:1 BLUES WAY --- BET NUMBERS 6:1, AS PUNTERS WIPE QLD!

Two days out from the opening State of Origin clash in Sydney, and Centrebet is reporting the most one-sided betting to a Series opener, with NSW holding 93 per cent of the money - both outright and at the ever-shrinking Line!

Centrebet media chief Neil Evans said of the first $100,000.00 bet across the game, a staggering near $93,000.00 has been for the Blues. From an opening price a couple of weeks back at $2.25, NSW has tumbled into $1.94, and is on target to grab favouritism, while Qld has blown out from $1.66 to $1.85 – and getting longer by the hour!

“It’s all NSW, whichever you look at the match – it’s the biggest statement in Origin history that bookmakers have got the wrong favourite,” Evans said. “All though last week and this week, punters don’t want to back Qld!”

Recent Blues bets with Centrebet include:

NSW WIN

$5,000.00 @ $1.96
$2,000.00 @ $2.00
$3,000.00 @ $2.02
$5,000.00 @ $2.02
$4,500.00 at $2.03
$10,000.00 @ $2.20
$2,500.00 at $2.20
$5,000.00 at $2.25

NSW LINE

$3,500.00 @ $1.90 (+1.5)
$3,000.00 @ $1.90 (+2.5)
$2,000.00 @ $1.90 (+2.5)
$7,000.00 @ $1.90 (+2.5)
$12,000.00 @ $1.90 (+3.5)
$3,000.00 @ $1.90 (+3.5)
$5,000.00 @ $1.87 (+3.5)

Bet numbers on both counts are running 6:1 the Blues way, and the only sizeable wager on Qld so far arrived today $7,000.00 at $1.95 ( - 1.5)!

NSW has also been heavily backed to win the Series, firming from $2.15 into $2.10, although Qld remains a $1.72 series favourite!

MAY 12, 2010

STORM WATCH IN CANBERRA AFTER EARLY RAIDERS PLUNGE!

• All eyes will be on disgrace premier Melbourne Storm’s performance against bitter rival Canberra in round 10 of the NRL after big punters on Centrebet launched into the Raiders today with the start!

Centrebet media chief Neil Evans said one client had wagered $50,000.00 across a few bets on Canberra with + 4.5 and + 5.5 at $1.90! The huge bet came moments after another smart Rugby league client bet nearly $10,000.00 at $1.90 ( + 6.0 and + 5.0)!

“The Line has already been cut from Canberra + 6.0 to + 4.0, despite the Raiders opening a clear outsider to win the match!” Evans said. “It’s a massive statement on how the Storm might be headed for more on-field trouble after their collapse to the Broncos last week. There may be one or two big players missing which is yet to be confirmed, and Canberra has already firmed from $2.50 into $2.38!!”

Evans said smaller punters had already lined up to back Canberra outright, with bets of $1k at $2.50, $750.00 at $2.42, $500.00 at $2.42 and $500.00 at $2.40!

The Storm has blown from $1.53 out to $1.58 several days before the match is scheduled!

• Meanwhile, the controversial Gold Coast is on the charge again – firming early from $2.00 down to $1.95, but still a narrow outsider against the improving Broncos in Brisbane!

Evans said smart money of $5,000.00 at $2.00 and $2,500.00 at $1.95 had led the charge!

• And a Centrebet client has bet $25,000.00 on the Bulldogs ( + 6.5) at $1.90 against the Dragons! “The Dogs are already a huge go with the start, including another regular bet of $4,000.00 ( + 6.0) at $1.90! In head-to-head betting the Bulldogs are $2.75 into $2.66, while the Dragons are $1.44 out to $1.48!!

APRIL 28, 2010

Cowboy plunge as scandalous Storm hits the road!

Only days after the shattered Melbourne Storm gave the NRL some breathing space with a 34-point walloping of the NZ Warriors at home, punters with Centrebet have made an emphatic statement the club’s first away game since the salary cap scandal erupted is headed for the skids!

Centrebet’s Neil Evans said since the round 8 markets opened yesterday, there’s been a constant surge of money for the Nth Qld Cowboys at the Line, and even some significant bets outright! “Within minutes of the market opening on Tuesday, one big client bet $25,000.00 on the Cowboys with 4.5 start at $1.90,” Evans said. “This followed an earlier bet of $5,000.00 (+ 5.5) at $1.90, and preceded a further wager of $1500.00 (+ 4.5) at $1.91. The Line has tightened already from + 5.5 down to + 4.0 and trimmed to $1.85!”

“There seems to be a strong early feeling the Storm’s date with destiny in Townsville will be a giant cry from the emotional show of unity that swept Ettihad Stadium on Sunday night!”

The Storm has drifted from an opening $1.50 out to $1.62, while the Cowboys have tightened from $2.58 right into $2.30! “And we expect that trend to continue. You would have thought looking at the two squads, the Cowboys would have been fish bait, even against a side with nothing to play for, but the money says there’s an upset coming!”

The Cowboys have drifted from $41.00 out to $51.00 after the loss to Parramatta and mounting speculation star playmaker Jonathan Thurston is headed for French rugby union!

In other early NRL action, the Bulldogs ($2.75) have been heavily backed at the + 6.5 Line, including one bet of $10,000.00 ( + 6.5) at $1.90, while the Brisbane Broncos ($1.50) have also been well backed at the Line which has already shrunk from – 6.0 to – 5.5! And premiership favourites the Dragons have already firmed from $1.21 into $1.16 to beat the hapless Sharks ($5.25), including one bet of $12,000.00 at $1.21!

APRIL 22, 2010

Centrebet to refund all Melbourne Storm premiership bets in 2010!

Leading bookmaker Centrebet will refund all wagers made on the Melbourne Storm to win the 2010 premiership in the wake of the massive $1.7 million salary cap scandal that has flattened the NRL premiers!

Centrebet media chief Neil Evans said this was the “only course of action” considering the depth and shock of Melbourne’s financial breaches, and the tough penalties handed out by the NRL, including the stripping of the club’s 2007 and 2009 premierships, and fines totalling $1.6 million! On top of that the club will play for no points in 2010!

“The punters have to be looked after here because this is reportedly an act of long-term and concerted deception, and has repercussions the likes of which rugby league has never seen in this country,” Evans said. “We will be refunding all monies bet on Melbourne to win the competition in 2010, totalling nearly $40,000.00, as a starting point!”

“We had been enjoying record turnover on the NRL, and we have to do everything possible to maintain the rage around a game that has taken a huge ethical hit! Unfortunately, it is systematically impossible to go back to previous Storm premiership years and re-result betting books!”

Evans said Centrebet had suspended its wooden spoon betting a couple of weeks back after learning the Melbourne Storm investigation could turn into a very serious matter. “At that stage, we held nearly $20,000.00, and obviously nearly all of that was on other clubs in the competition,” he said.

“Hundreds of thousands of dollars had been bet already in 2010. Melbourne was a $5.50 second favourite on Centrebet behind the Dragons ($5.00) before the market was suspended! Nearly $200,000.00 had been wagered so far across the premiership book!

Even this week, the Storm had been heavily backed from $1.32 into $1.28 to beat the NZ Warriors this weekend, with nearly $40,000.00 invested!

Late this afternoon, Centrebet re-posted its 2010 premiership market, with the Dragons firming to $4.50 ahead of Manly ($6.50), Parramatta ($7.00), Wests Tigers ($7.50), Gold Coast ($10.00), Penrith ($10.00), Bulldogs ($11.00) and Souths ($15.00)!

Election Update

A bit of political juice!!!!! - Interesting bet we took through the week … REGULAR ELECTION CLIENT had $5000 on Julia Gillard NOT to be PM before the next election at $1.16 ….. That option is now in to $1.13 ….while Gillard to be PM is from $4.75 out to $5.25 …. It seems all the freight-train talk for the auburn-haired ALP iron lady to take Rudd’s CHAIR before the next poll has officially run out of steam!!!

Labor remains 1.30 fav with the Coalition at 3.40 ….. … and there’s been more money for the Coalition in VIC … 3.30 into 3.23!! with the Brumby Labor govt easing from $1.32 out to 1.33!! Quite significant considering Labor opened 1.16 over a year ago!!!

Also we recently took $20,000.00 wager on NSW Coalition at $1.15 --- into $1.14 … amazingly Kenneally LABOR govt out from $5.20 to $5.35 … and can’t write anything decent!!!

APRIL 19, 2010

300k wager on Storm to ice a record round of NRL betting!

A big-time punter with leading bookmaker Centrebet has unleashed a staggering $286,000.00 on the Melbourne Storm at $1.39 to beat Manly tonight in what has been a record high round of betting on the NRL!

Centrebet’s Neil Evans said the near $300,000.00 bet on the Storm had seen them tumble into $1.34, while Manly has eased dramatically from an opening $2.67 right out to $3.30! The Storm opened betting last week at $1.48 favourite!

“A short time after this massive bet, we took another $25,000.00 on the Storm at $1.36, and $15,000.00 and $5,000.00 at the – 7.5 Line at $1.91,” he said. “The Line has moved from – 5.5 out to – 7.5, and is set to get longer by kick-off. There’s not a punter in the world that thinks Melbourne will lose back-to-back games, and no-one around the Storm forgets the 40-0 humiliation to Manly in the 2008 grand final!”

“The move on Melbourne to win tonight is one of the biggest plunges of the season so far!”

Evans said a record round of NRL betting had been fuelled by a massive plunge on Parramatta to beat a weakened Souths yesterday, with the Eels firming from $2.15 to start a heavily-backed $1.75 favourite! “The money this round is running into millions, and punters are coming home with a wet sail after they missed badly on the Gold Coast at home to the Dragons in the Friday night opener,” he said. “Incredibly, several hundred thousand was wagered on the two Friday night games alone!”

Melbourne eased from $4.50 out to $5.50 in premiership betting after losing to the Titans last week, while Parramatta is now $14.00 into $12.00 after one client bet $5,000.00 at $14.00 last week to win the premiership!

APRIL 14, 2010

BIG MONEY COALITION

• A specialist election punter from Sydney with leading bookmaker Centrebet has sounded a “death knell” for the NSW Labor government, outlaying nearly $25,000 on the Coalition at short odds to sweep to power next March! “The punter in two bets has taken just $1.15 and $1.14, with the Coalition now a red-hot $1.14 favourite to win, with Labor out to a whopping $5.35!

Centrebet’s Neil Evans said this was the biggest move on a change of government in NSW for some time as overall turnover pushed towards the $80,000.00 mark! “The Coalition holds more than 90 per cent of all head-to-head monies bet so far,” Evans said. “There seems to have been a severe reaction to the F3 motorway debacle, and punters have launched into a Coalition win!”

Meanwhile, Opposition leader Barry O’Farrell has shortened from $1.26 into $1.24 to still be Coalition leader when NSW next goes to the polls, with Manly MP Mike Baird easing to $3.15!

APRIL 1, 2010

NRL LATEST

PUNTERS on Centrebet charged into the Melbourne Storm ahead of Friday night’s Easter block-buster against the Dragons quickly making them clear outright $1.80 favourite!

Centrebet’s Neil Evans said only moments after the bookmaker opened both unbeaten heavyweight clubs $1.91 equal favourites, a regular NRL client bet $20,000.00 on Melbourne at $1.91, followed quickly by a two-leg multi for $25,000.00 on the Storm at $1.90 into the Roosters ( - 6.5) at $1.90 against the Broncos! “There was another $20,000.00 in bets for the Storm in no time and they surged into $1.85 favourite for a match that will determine who is the clear-cut early premiership favourite,” Evans said. “Then more money for the Storm today has seen them tighten to $1.80, with the Dragons now odds against at $2.02!

In other early big betting moves on Centrebet, a big client took a two-leg multi plundering $25,000.00 on the NZ Warriors ( + 4.5) at $1.90 against Manly into Souths ( + 6.5) at $1.90, while another punter bet $20,000.00 on Souths ( + 6.0) at $1.90 into the hapless Sharks ( + 12.0) at $1.90! Both multis are a $3.61 pay-out! The Warriors have been popular through multi’s, and have shortened from an opening $2.50 into $2.25 to beat Manly ($1.52 out to $1.67), including bets of $7,000.00 at $2.50 and $5,000.00 at $2.35!

Punters quickly pushed the Roosters from an opening $1.42 into $1.38 to beat the Broncos who drifted from $2.85 out to $3.00! “No-one wants a bar of Brisbane, especially away from home, and they’re out to $41.00 in premiership betting after just three rounds, having started the season proper at $21.00,” Evans said.

Despite losing playmaker Scott Prince to injury - and all the drama surrounding the salary cap controversy - punters believe the Gold Coast Titans are over the odds on Centrebet at $2.60 against a struggling Cowboys ($1.50) side in Townsville! “It’s mainly at the Line where punters have come hard, including one bet of $9,000.00 on the Titans at $1.90 (+ 6.5), while another client moved too early outlaying $5,000.00 ( + 3.5) before Prince was ruled out. But another Centrebet customer believes the Titans won’t need any start, and has bet $10,000.00 at the $2.60 a Gold Coast win,” Evans said.

And the misery for Cronulla is set to continue if the money’s right ahead of the clash with the Eels! “Forget about the Eels winning this one at a short price, punters charged straight into the $1.90 Line giving up 12 points start, including one client who unloaded $20,000.00 on Parramatta ( - 12.0) at $1.90!”

MARCH 23, 2010

PUNTER’S WILD ASSAULT ON ROUND 3 OUTSIDERS!

• A Sydney punter has unleashed an extraordinary near $40,000.00 plunge on outsiders ahead of round 3 action in the NRL, only minutes after the opening prices were announced today on Centrebet!

• Centrebet’s Neil Evans said it was one of the most “rapid-fire moves” from a rugby league client searching for supreme early value!

• Second afters Centrebet posted head-to-head and Line prices for round 3, this regular client bet $14,000.00 on the Wests Tigers at $2.60 to upset Parramatta ($1.50)! The same punter then had a smaller bet on Wests Tigers at $1.90 ( + 5.5). Moments later, he unloaded $5,000.00 on Penrith at $2.25 to upset unbeaten defending premier Melbourne! The Panthers have firmed already into $2.05, while the Storm, amid injury fears, have eased from $1.67 out to $1.75! Then the same client bet $6,000.00 on the NZ Warriors at $2.60 to upset the Broncos ($1.50) at Suncorp, a further $5,000.00 on the Kiwi side with the start at $1.90! And finally, he wagered $5,000.00 on the Bulldogs at $1.95!

• The rejuvenated Roosters have opened $1.86 to continue the injury-hit Bulldogs ($1.95) horror start to the season!

MARCH 10, 2010

RBA April Interest Rate opens $1.55 favourite to be unmoved!

Leading financial bookmaker Centrebet has opened ‘No Move’ to the official RBA cash rate in April a $1.55 favourite! But Centrebet media chief and analyst Neil Evans said the $2.20 quoted about another 25bp Interest Rate rise on April 6 was still “very much in play!”

“After the Reserve bumped the official rate by one-quarter per cent last week, the early indicator is the central bank will cool its heels, but against that are continuing strong industrial performers in employment, retail and real estate sales, and there is certainly room for back-to-back 25bp rises,” Evans said.

“It will be intriguing to see which way punters go early, particularly after RBA Govenor Glenn Stevens flagged several rises in 2010 to meet a sustainable cash target!”

Evans said the decision on Tuesday, April 6 comes on the first working day back from the four-day Easter long weekend, and may play a part in the RBA’s announcement! Around $45,000.00 in bets arrived for the official cash rate decision last month!

Meanwhile, the ‘Over 4900 Pts’ option for the closing figure on the ASX 200 indice has drifted today from $2.13 out to $2.42 after the market took a sudden dip following days of robust performance!

“Punters had been backing the ‘Over 4900’ option heavily, but the ‘Under 4800 pts’ has now firmed back in from as high as $2.60 into $2.33 favourite,” Evans said. “The 4800 – 4900 pts band is still the outsider at $3.25!”

Already, nearly 100 individual bets have been placed on Centrebet’s ground-breaking ASX 200 indice market!

MARCH 8, 2010

Punters to bet on the ASX 200 index!

In an Australasian betting first, punters from today will be able to bet on the monthly finish line of the S & P ASX 200 index!

Centrebet’s media chief Neil Evans hailed the new betting medium as the “next big thing in financial betting” – 20 months after the leading bookmaker became the first in the country to offer markets on the Reserve Bank’s official monthly Interest Rate move!

“In that time, nearly $1 million has been bet with us on the RBA’s rate decision, now market punters can bet on the ASX 200 indicator, with three end-of-month prices regularly updated,” Evans said. “This is something we have been working on for months, and believe it will ignite a new wave of financial punters!”

Today’s opening March 31 market has Over 4900.0 points as the $2.00 favourite ahead of Below 4800.0 at $2.70, while the middle band of 4800.0 points to 4900 points is the $3.50 outsider!

“Punters will now be watching the betting moves as much as the ASX indicator itself as they try and swoop on the winning option,” Evans said.

MARCH 31 CLOSE ASX 200 INDEX

$2.00 4900.1 PTS OR MORE $2.70 4799.9 PTS OR LESS $3.50 4800.0 PTS – 4900.0 PTS

MARCH 5, 2010

SUPER –SAT FLEMINGTON

• Melbourne Cup winner Shocking has been heavily backed today on Centrebet to win the Group 1 Australian Cup, firming from $8.50 into $7.50! The Flemington specialist has attracted a string of smart bets, including wagers of $3,000.00 and $1,000.00 – both at $8.00! Sirmione ($16.00 into $14.00) has also been well specked! Money has dried up for Zipping and he is $8.00 out to $9.00! And very good specking for Zarita ($21.00 down to $16.00) including one bet of $500.00 at $21.00! Ruling favourite Heart of Dreams has been easy out to $6.00!

• Best backed Newmarket runner today on Centrebet is Starspangledbanner, with $5,000.00 in wagers arriving! Has tightened from $8.50 into $8.00. Bets include $1700.00 at $8.00, $1,000.00 at $8.50 and $500.00 at $8.00! Reasonable support for early wide favourite All Silent but he’s easy in the market, $5.50 out to $6.00! Long-range firmer King Pulse continues to shorten today $15.00 down to $14.00 – one bet of $800.00 at $15 – all up has almost halved its price from $26.00 in the last few weeks. Tickets has been very well specked from $21.00 down to $19.00!

• Punters are still backing Denman at $1.75, including a bet a short time ago of $5,000.00! But after completely owning the market for days, a few thousand in smart money has arrived for Set for Fame in the last couple of hours, tightening it from $6.00 down to $5.00! Linton is $5.50 out to $6.00, and apart from one lone bet of $1,000.00, is virtually unwanted!

• The best-backed runner at Flemington all day has been the Snowden galloper Backgammon in the VRC Sires Produce, sensationally backed from $9.00 into $5.50, with some very smart money! Race favourite Willow Creek has also been heavily supported $3.40 into $3.00, but In Faith has been a little easy $3.20 out to $3.60!

• Another Snowden galloper Trim has been heavily backed to win the Kewney from $3.80 into $3.50, while returning VRC Oaks winner Smart Perfume has attracted smart money and backed from $9.00 down to $7.00! Melbourne fillies Rostova and Irish Lights are both drifters in the market!

MARCH 3, 2010

“Back to the Future” in new multi-million dollar NRL deal!

Leading bookmaker Centrebet has today announced a spectacular $2 million investment in the National Rugby League – involving sponsorship of five of the competition’s most heavyweight clubs, direct on-jersey signage and a unique commitment to the game’s revitalised fan base!

Centrebet media chief Neil Evans announced that last season’s minor premier St George-Illawarra and top eight hopeful Penrith had today joined the multi-club stable, signing special one and three-year deals, worth close to $500,000.00!

These two clubs join last season’s NRL grand finalist Parramatta, 2008 premiers Manly and the Nth Qld Cowboys as proud six-figure partners with Centrebet, heading into the most anticipated season in decades!

The extended Manly deal also involves the Centrebet name branded on the playing strip, and is worth close to $1 million over three seasons, while the Dragons partnership involves numerous promotions with the bookmaker’s ambassador and former dual international Wendell Sailor!

On top of that, Centrebet has extended major deals across the rugby league media, including the popular NRL Footy Show and Triple’s M Monday Night Football broadcast!

Evans, who will regularly appear alongside Big Dell on the Footy Show this season, labelled the new multi-million dollar commitment as going “Back to the Future!”

“We recognise that rugby league’s grass roots and club traditions will never be more valuable to the game, with continued competition from rival codes, especially the AFL’s push into western Sydney,” Evans said. “But the lifeblood of rugby league still flows heavily through Sydney’s streets, and in the Dragons, Eels, Sea Eagles and the Panthers, we have committed to four of the most passionate and recognisable badges in the long history of the game.

“The Cowboys, though, is more where we see the game’s longer-term breeding ground, so our attitude is we want to be involved with both the history and the future!”

Evans said that further to Centrebet’s unrivalled number of betting markets on rugby league, the bookmaker will be running several fan and charity promotions and competitions throughout the season!

Meanwhile, Centrebet is the first to offer head-to-head betting markets world-wide for the opening NRL round, with the new-look Wests Tigers opening a $1.73 favourite to beat Manly ($2.10) at the SFS!

Evans said the bookmaker had broken new ground by releasing the round one markets, nearly two weeks ahead of match-day in order to give punters a running start to the new season! "There has been unprecedented interest in the lead-up to the season proper so we want to get up and running, not just with head-to-head prices but the Line prices as well!”

Centrebet opened the Broncos a $1.65 favourite against arch-rival Nth Qld Cowboys ($2.25), while in the Sydney ‘purists’ battle, $6.50 premiership favourite Parramatta opened $1.80 against arch-rival St George ($2.00)! "We expect both these games to be colossal betting events," he said.

Newcastle's out-of-control off-season is reflected - a long $3.55 outsider against the Bulldogs ($1.29), while a re-shaped Penrith is a hot $1.39 fancy at home to the Raiders ($3.00)! In other matches, NRL and World Club champion Melbourne has opened $1.42 away to the Sharks ($2.85), while Gold Coast is $1.45 favourite against the Warriors ($2.75) and Souths ($1.45) is heavily fancied to beat the neighbouring Sydney Roosters ($2.75)!

And nearly $10,000.00 in bets has arrived for the Wests Tigers to win the premiership, shortening the 2005 champs from $21.00 into $12.00!

FEBRUARY 25, 2010

PUNTING PM MARKET REQUEST FUELS FIRE THAT GILLARD MAY TAKE RUDD’S JOB!!

EDIT • First bets have arrived for Julia Gillard PM market …opening bet – FROM ELECTION REGULAR - not surprisingly was $2,500.00 @ 1.17 on Gillard NOT to become PM before next election … only been up for 1 hour, and we do have $400.00 on Gillard at 4.00! … no sign yet of the big punters who inspired the market!!!!

• In an astonishing twist on the doorstep of a crucial Federal Election, leading political bookmaker Centrebet has posted Deputy Prime Minister Julia Gillard a $4.00 shot to become the nation’s first female leader BEFORE the nation goes to the polls!

Centrebet media chief and analyst Neil Evans said the tough-as-teak Ms Gillard was $1.17 to still be Kevin Rudd’s Deputy, given the current PM’s personal preferred PM position is still “reasonably strong.”

Evans said the new Federal market would “fascinate punters,” and was released after separate requests from clients who wanted to back Ms Gillard not just to become Australia’s first ever female national leader, but to take the country’s top job before the looming Federal poll!

“We had one client hell-bent on placing a wager on Ms Gillard to take Mr Rudd’s job, claiming he would place a bet of $5,000.00 or even up to $10,000.00 if the price was right,” Evans said. “Despite the Coalition continuing to make up ground on the government across most fronts under new leader Tony Abbott, it was “almost unthinkable” that Mr Rudd would be dumped for Ms Gillard before the next election! Yet against that, Mr Rudd is being circled by a firestorm of policy and social problems, not the least being the debacle over the failed batts insulation scheme that could well cost frontbench MP Peter Garrett his job!”

“There is also growing unrest and criticism among Labor staffers over Mr Rudd’s general approach!”

Evans said Mr Rudd was under pressure at a time when the country is in many ways revolting against Labor rule, and Ms Gillard – the most admired of the Federal Labor politicians by many hard-core conservatives – has taken a lot of the heat for the government when Mr Rudd preferred to hide! “We are now eagarly awaiting to see if the big money to support Ms Gillard arrives!

While still the clear favourite, Labor has eased to $1.28 (from $1.26) in the last few days after nearly $30,000.00 in bets arrived for the Coalition shortening its price from $3.65 into $3.55!

August 28 remains the $5.50 favourite on Centrebet when Australians will go to the polls!

FEBRUARY 18, 2010

Beneteau hot horse ahead of the Diamond

• Ahead of Saturday’s Group 1 Oakleigh Plate (1100m), returning headline horse Weekend Hussler continues to attract punting support with bookmaker Centrebet at the long-shot price of $16.00!

“One punter unloaded around $5,000.00 across a series of wagers at $16.00 and $15.00 to win nearly $70,000.00, while other early bets included $1500.00 at $14.00 and $2,000.00 each-way at $15.00/$4.80,” Evans said. “We’re expecting the Hussler to run a big race having been in work for some time, but to beat some of these over 1100m after such a let-up, it’s fair-dinkum ‘Will Robinson.. Lost in Space stuff’!” Officially, the Hussler is $16.00 into $15.00!

Early favourite Lucky Secret has been well backed on Centrebet at $5.50 including bets of $2,000.00 and $1500.00, while Starspangledbanner has been a genuine shortener from $7.50 into $7.00 after a string of money, including wagers of $2,700.00 and $1,000.00!

-------------------

• Fixed odds punters with Centrebet have today launched an all-out assault on Blue Diamond favourite Beneteau winning Saturday’s feature Group 1 two-year-old classic, shortening the unbeaten colt from $3.80 into $3.60!

Centrebet media chief Neil Evans said Beneteau was now carrying a huge percentage of the book, and was the exclusive runner switched-on early punters were chasing, indicating the horse will come up a lot shorter on race day!

“Today, we’ve taken a bet of $10,000.00 at $3.75, two bets of $2,500.00 at $3.75 and $3.65, $2,000.00 at $3.80 and just under $2,000.00 at $3.70,” Evans said. “There’s a stack more smaller stuff from punters following the smarter money, and having been trimmed from $4.00 into $3.80 after the barrier draw, Beneteau is now a runaway $3.60 favourite!”

Star filly Pyschologist, who drew the outside gate, continues to lack support after easing to $6.50, while last-start Flemington winner Star Witness is clearly the next most popular runner, well backed from $9.00 down to $8.00, including one Brisbane client who’s outlaid $5,000.00 to win just under $50,000.00!

There’s also been more strong specking today for the Snowden galloper Secession who has firmed from $12.00 into $10.00!

FEBRUARY 9, 2010

AUGUST 28 OPENS $5.00 FAV WHEN AUSTRALIANS GO TO THE POLLS!

Saturday, August 28 has opened a wide $5.00 favourite with leading bookmaker Centrebet when Australians will go to the polls to hand the Rudd Labor government another term, or bring back the Coalition under new leader Tony Abbott!

In describing the market as a “revolving door” – and one of the most difficult to accurately assess - Centrebet media chief and analyst Neil Evans said the second half of August was looming as the most likely time – both constitutionally and socially – Labor would call the election!

“The timing of constitutional issues is pivotal here, and for that reason August through to mid September seems the most likely time an election will be called,” Evans said. “This is the time the government can opt for a normal House and half-Senate election, or exercise a double-dissolution election for the House and the entire Senate!”

“The Prime Minister has a nasty juggling act – does he go early before the Opposition really starts to bite into his party lead and tear apart his policy ideals, or does he fall back on the old line of being a full-term leader,” Evans said. “In fact, this is where he’ll use the packed election schedule with at least three states due to head to the polls to delay his tactic, and for that reason the After Oct 30 option ($7.00) is shorter than Before July 3 ($9.00)!

Evans said the stumbling block on a late election though is the fact the Victorian parliament dissolves for the State campaign on November 2 with the election scheduled for November 27! “He would then run into Christmas, and quickly after into a crucial NSW election campaign where the ruling Labor government ($4.90) is virtually on the scrapheap,” he said.

Evans added that certain Saturdays around late September and through October were much longer in the market because of school holidays across the country and major sporting grand finals!

Labor remains $1.20 favourite on Centrebet ahead of the Coalition ($4.25)!

FEBRUARY 8, 2010

COULD THEY LEAVE INTEREST RATES ON HOLD A FOR A SECOND STRAIGHT MONTH!! SURELY NOT, BUT PUNTERS SAY YES!!!

• Mortgage holders might be cracking open the champagne for a second straight month if an early money trail on Centrebet for Interest Rates to be left on hold again in March hits the mark!

Centrebet’s Neil Evans admits to still being in a semi-state of shock the RBA didn’t lift the rates by 0.25bp last week, but back-to-back holding patterns from the Reserve would prove a bigger celebration than anti ETS campaigners in Copenhagen!

“We opened ‘Stay the Same’ for March a $2.60 second favourite, but already it’s in to $2.05 after scores of bets, including one finance “specialist” who has backed it four times, even nearly four weeks from the decision,” Evans said. “Consequently, the early favourite of a quarter percent increase has eased from an opening $1.55 out to $1.65, while the 50bp rise has eased from $5.00 out to $5.50!”

Evans said rarely do you see such a significant move for one option so far out from the decision!

“Our feeling was the rates must go up in March after the RBA held fire in February, but the early punters say the cash rate is going nowhere for the moment!”

NEXT RBA OFFICIAL INTEREST RATE DECISION (Sch Mar 2, 2010)

$1.65 STAY THE SAME (out from $1.55) $2.05 INCREASE BY 0.01 – 0.25 % (in from $2.60) $5.50 INCREASE BY 0.26 – 0.50 % (out from $5.00) $51.00 INCREASE BY MORE THAN 0.51 % $81.00 ANY DECREASE

JANUARY 28, 2010

AUST OPEN UPDATE

• Top seed and $1.58 tournament favourite Serena Williams has firmed from $1.17 into $1.15 on Centrebet to beat Na Li in today’s semi-final after a rush of nearly $35,000.00 in bets, including $15,000.00, $10,000.00 and $4,700.00 – all at the opening quote of $1.17! Na Li has blown from $5.00 out to $5.40 and is unwanted by punters.

A different story, though, in the second semi-final where plenty of punters have taken the big $4.50 price about Jie Zheng upsetting Justine Henin ($1.20)!

“The money here is actually favouring Zheng about 55-45 split, so there’s a feeling among punters they should be a lot closer together in the market,” Centrebet’s Neil Evans said. “Henin remains a much more attractive proposition in tournament betting where she remains an attractive $2.85 second favourite behind Williams. She’s been well fancied all the way down from $7.50, and is arguably better prepared for a final than Serena!”

• Meanwhile, Marin Cilic remains a long $4.85 outsider against British number one Andy Murray ($1.18) ahead of tonight’s first men’s semi-final, with the money down the middle so far!

Top seed Roger Federer is even shorter at $1.16 to win his semi-final against flamboyuant Frenchman Jo Wilfried Tsonga ($5.25)! Federer is $1.77 in tournament betting ahead of Murray ($2.35) with Tsonga at $17.00 and Cilic ($19.00)!

DECEMBER 30, 2009

PERTH CUP EXTRA///PERTH CUP EXTRA/// “THE STING IS ON”

BIG MOVE TODAY FOR GONDORFF … THE GALLOPER NAMED AFTER PAUL NEWMAN’S CHARACTER HENRY GONDORFF IN THE 1973 OSCAR-WINNING GAMBLING CLASSIC OF THE GREAT DEPRESSION – THE STING!

• Perth clients have led an almighty raid today on Gondorff to win Friday’s Group 2 Perth Cup, shortening the horse from $6.50 into $6.00!! Several clients have stepped in, including a regular Perth punter who has wagered $2,500.00 across several bets at $6.50 and $6.25, and another who has staked $2,000.00 at $6.50!

Gondorff is the big mover today, while Lords Ransom remains the $3.80 favourite on Centrebet!

Punters hold Perth Cup to Ransom! … but a longshot still looms!

Money is still being staked with Centrebet on dominant Perth Cup favourite Lords Ransom after the emerging stayer was heavily backed in All-In betting from $7.50 into $3.80!

Centrebet’s Neil Evans said big punters from both the west and east had targeted Lords Ransom even before his sweeping win in the CB Cox Stakes (1800m) lead-up!

“They came early for Lords Ransom, including one sharp punter who had $3,000.00 at $4.20,” Evans said. “Another WA client had around $2,500.00 across four separate wagers at $4.00 and $3.90, while there were bets from the east of $1,000.00 at $4.00, $1500.00 at $3.90 and another Perth client had $2,000.00 at $3.80. Then just prior to yesterday’s barrier draw, another client bet $2,000.00 at $3.70!”

“Lords Ransom’s preparation has been spot-on, he’s from the hot Adam Durrant stable and he’s drawn to get the ‘gun’ run from barrier two. Yet in a field of 16 around the tight Ascot circuit, luck still plays a part and we’ll look to stay competitive with his price. But we expect more big money today at the $3.80.”

The other big mover in futures betting on Centrebet was Right Fong who firmed heavily from an early quote of $16.00 into $7.00! “We took a stack of bets, including $800.00 at $16.00, $1500.00 each-way at $9.00, $1,000.00 at $10.00, $2,500.00 at $10.00, and $500.00 at $7.50, and even though the money has stalled since the horse drew gate 17 in the final field, he will still be an ordinary result for us,” Evans said.

Several WA punters with Centrebet are banking on first reserve Almohad - with the gun Lou Luciani-Jason Whiting combination pulling the strings – getting a run! “The horse was heavily specked from $26.00 into $16.00 in the lead-up to the barrier draw, but now sweats on a start!”

Another Durrant-trained galloper Ma Chienne has been well fancied, firming from $8.50 into $7.50, while stablemate Star Encounter was specked in the Futures market, including one bet of $1,000.00 at $16.00. “It seems the only Durrant galloper punters are cold on is Great Destiny who drifted from $10.00 to $14.00 after drawing gate 15, while the David Hayes-trained Largo Lad eased from $9.50 to $12.00 (back to $10.00) after drawing 19,” Evans added.

One of the most interesting moves has come for longshot Geyser Peak. Despite being given little hope from a wide gate, one WA punter has been backing the horse for weeks, unloading nearly $1,500.00 to win around $70,000.00, and the horse has shortened down from an early $51.00 into $21.00!

And another punter from NSW’s central west has placed nearly $1,000.00 across several bets on the Shane Edwards-trained Le Bon Jeune at $26.00. The Mark Reed-trained Gondorff holds the second line of betting at $6.50 after drawing ideally in barrier six!

DECEMBER 24, 2009

PUNTERS TURN BACK THE AUSSIES WAY!

• The money is starting to turn Australia’s way on Centrebet ahead of the Boxing Day Test, after early punters snapped up the opening $5.00 about Pakistan, shortening them into $4.90! But Centrebet’s Neil Evans says several thousand has been wagered in the last 24 hours on the Aussies at $1.78 to win the MCG clash, with the Draw also tightening from $3.40 in to $3.30!

“It seems they want to back Australia, but have waited to the odds lengthen a little,” Evans said. “But while Pakistan is expected to come out swinging, punters seem in little doubt Australia will take the best-of-three series, pushing the home side from an opening $1.63 into $1.57!”

Evans said the Drawn series was now at an attractive $4.25 (out from $3.75), while a Pakistan series win was now paying $5.25!

• Meanwhile, prolific winner Wild Oats XI remains Centrebet’s well-backed $1.80 favourite to win the 2009 Sydney to Hobart yacht classic, with Alfa Romeo ($2.25) and ICAP Leopard ($4.50) the only other contenders in single figures! But the race record is not expected to fall, with No Record quoted at $1.75!

Evans said Wild Oats XI was commanding half off all monies invested including bets of $2,000.00 at $1.85 and $1,200.00 at $1.80, but Alfa Romeo and ICAP Leopard had also shortened from their opening prices. One Sydney punter has staked $750.00 on ICAP at $4.75!

DECEMBER 22, 2009

AUST v PAKISTAN///BOXING DAY TEST///

• Australia has opened $1.72 on Centrebet to win the Boxing Day Test at the MCG, with the Draw quoted at $3.40, and Pakistan a despised $5.00 outsider!

• And despite battling to beat the West Indies, Australia is an even shorter $1.63 to win the best-of-three series, with a Drawn result at $3.75 and Pakistan at $5.25!

“Personally, I think plenty of punters will consider the gap between the two teams as a little too big, and expect both the Draw and Pakistan to shorten the closer we get to the start of play,” Centrebet’s Neil Evans said! “Not surprisingly, the early money and bet numbers are 3:1 Pakistan’s way, with punters hopping on what is considered over-the-odds value!”

ABBOTT HONEYMOON OVER! FED BETTING MOVE: LABOR SURGES BACK INTO $1.19 FAVOURITE!

The betting honeymoon for new Coalition leader Tony Abbott has seemingly come to an abrupt end on Centrebet, with election punters unleashing a wave of money for the Rudd Labor government to retain office, once the party hit $1.23 in head-to-head betting!

Centrebet media chief and analyst Neil Evans said the heavily-backed ALP had eased from $1.16 out to $1.23 after the first real big wave of money came for the Opposition once Mr Abbott took over from Malcolm Turnbull!

“All of a sudden the $5.00 being bet about the Coalition was attractive under the new leader. One specialist Sydney punter unloaded nearly $20,000.00 across four bets from $5.00 down to $4.35 before the Opposition levelled out at $4.00,” Evans said.

“But in the last week, smart punters have hopped back on Labor, including bets of $10,000.00 at $1.23, $10,000.00 at $1.22 and $2,500.00 from a ‘tough’ punter at $1.22. Most of the money is coming from Sydney clients, and it seems they were just waiting for Labor to get out to a more backable price before they stormed in!”

Evans said this was another sharp reminder that while Mr Abbott is popular and admired in some quarters the money confirms he’s not the leader to cut into Labor’s margin at the ballot box! Nearly $150,000.00 has been traded so far on the Federal Election with Centrebet, with Labor holding 80 per cent of all monies. Mr Abbott, though, is $1.14 on the bookmaker’s ‘Liberal Leader at Next Federal Election’ market, with Joe Hockey $4.95, and Any Other Candidate $7.50!

Meanwhile, the NSW Opposition Coalition has tightened to its shortest price - $1.15 – to win office at the next State poll, with the embattled Labor government, under new leader Kristina Kenneally, now at a whopping $4.90! Bets are running 10:1 the Coalition’s way, with the biggest recent wager $15,000.00 on the Coalition at $1.19 made by a prominent member of the Sydney media set.

DECEMBER 7, 2009

TEST LEAD

After a slow build-up in betting to the Adelaide Test, “live” punters have gone ballistic on Centrebet during the match, spurred on by a rare tight contest that threatens to go all the way to the wire!

Centrebet’s Neil Evans said huge outright action came on the third day’s play when one punter unloaded $30,000.00 on Australia to win at $1.95, having drifted all the way out from $1.21 at the start of the match! A short time ago another client bet $10,000.00 on Australia at $2.85! Evans said at the same time, another client bet $5,000.00 on the Windies at $11.00 to win $50k, the despised outsider having shortened from a massive $16.50 at the start of play!

Scores of punters also bet between $500.00 and $5,000.00 on the Draw from $3.00 down midway through the third day’s play, and again attacked that result in the first session this morning! “It’s a pretty good move considering by well into the fourth day, the Draw was rated odds-on ($1.92),” Evans said.

But the action-packed hero of “live” betting belongs to the client who today made himself a nice profit playing Centrebet’s exclusive ball-by-ball “live” Under/Over Line for every over of the Test!

In the Windies second innings, he unloaded $15,000.00 under 3.5 at $2.00 in the 7th over, $20,000.00 under 3.5 at $2.05 in the 8th over, $8,000.00 under 3.5 at $1.90 in the 12th over, and $15,000.00 under 3.5 at $1.90 in the 17th over to name a few in a relentless surge of over-by-over ‘live’ action that left him nicely in front!

Just to ice the cake, the same punter staked $25,000.00 on Chris Gayle making more than 57.5 runs in the second innings at $1.85! “At lunch, he just needs two more from Gayle, and I can tell you fortune still favours the brave,” Evans said. “This over-over-by betting is sensational for hedge punters and those with a serious game target or market, allowing you to successfully play both ways!”

DECEMBER 2, 2009

PUNTERS LAUNCH WAVE OF MONEY FOR ROY JONES KNOCKOUT!

• Punters have launched a stunning move for Roy Jones Jnr on Centrebet to knockout Danny Green in tonight’s showdown at Acer Arena, backing the ‘Jones by Knockout’ Method of Victory from an opening $3.70 into $2.80!

Centrebet Media Chief Neil Evans said nearly $40,000.00 had been wagered on the fight result options, with nearly 90 per cent of all monies across a Jones knockout, including bets of $20,000.00 at $3.25, $5,000.00 at $3.25, $5,000.00 at $3.00 and $3,000.00 at $3.20! “It’s been a sustained move from $3.70 down, and alarm bells are sounding for Danny Green,” Evans said. “The big question is whether punters are spot on with way the fight goes, or whether they’ve taken the result value as opposed to just backing Jones to win. In head to head betting, he has eased from an opening $1.30 out to $1.35!”

The ironic part is that Danny Green is shading the money win the win market alone, although manly punters believed he was over the odds at the opening $3.40! “He has been backed down to $3.15, and actually leads the bet numbers by a 4:1 ratio!

$10k BET ON COALITION SPARKS BETTING RUSH AFTER LABOR’S ETS LEGISLATION IS BURIED!

• Immediately after Labor’s explosive ETS legislation was formally buried in the Senate - and the trigger for a double dissolution early election became real - a long-time election punter on Centrebet unloaded $10,000.00 on the Coalition to cause the mother of all Federal upsets at $5.00!

Centrebet media chief Neil Evans said there was an immediate rush of action for the Opposition moments after the Senate vote, including another bet of $4,000.00 at $4.50! “It’s not surprising the money has come for the Coalition at such a big price, considering new leader Tony Abbott has hit the ground running having Labor’s precious carbon-reduction policy wiped away in the Senate,” he said!

“It was a green light for punters who think the Coalition’s only chance is to go in swinging on an early ETS election, given the economic impact the Opposition had made on the electorate over the last few days. But you have to respect the big picture, and that is whether an Abbott-led Opposition can genuinely bite into Labor’s significant margin at the ballot box. At this stage I think that is a long way away!”

The Coalition has shortened today on Centrebet from $5.00 into $4.10, with Labor easing dramatically – for the first time in months – from $1.15 out to $1.22!

AUST FED ELECTION

$1.22 LABOR (out from $1.15) $4.10 COALITION (in from $5.00)

WHO WILL LEAD THE COALITION AT NEXT FEDERAL ELECTION

$1.16 TONY ABBOTT $4.35 JOE HOCKEY $7.50 ANY OTHER CANDIDATE

DECEMBER 1, 2009

Abbott now 1.25 to lead coalition into next vote, Hockey 3.00 ... but double dissolution tightens to 1.50! labor firms to 1.14 to retain govt!

Leading election bookmaker Centrebet has shortened the likelihood of a double dissolution early election into a $1.50 favourite after Tony Abbott’s shock elevation to the leadership of the Liberal Party, despite punters backing Joe Hockey from $1.80 into $1.28 to take the reins in the last 24 hours of betting!

Centrebet media chief Neil Evans said long-serving MP Mr Abbott, who was well backed when he first made it publicly known he would challenge Malcolm Turnbull, shortened from $4.50 into $3.00, but eased back out to $4.35 when the support came late for Mr Hockey! “This is a tidal-like reminder of the party’s emphatic stance on the ETS legislation. The vote to elevate Mr Abbott in front of Mr Hockey is a clear-cut protective stance on the Coalition’s anti-carbon scheme policy!”

Centrebet also shortened the already heavily-backed Labor government from $1.16 into $1.14 to win the next election, with the imploding Coalition easing dramatically from $4.75 to $5.15! Labor already holds more than 85 per cent of nearly $100,000.00 traded!

The Coalition Leader market has returned with Mr Abbott a $1.25 favourite, Mr Hockey at $3.00, with Any Other Candidate priced at $6.50! “We still don’t rule Mr Hockey out of the frame, but he will only be a good bet if Labor goes the full term, if we are looking at a double dissolution election than Mr Abbott is the obvious hot favourite,” Evans said.

NOVEMBER 29, 2009

FED COALITION LEADER AT NEXT ELECTION MARKET!

• Several more bets laid in last couple of hours - Just took one wager from a Sydney client of $2,000.00 on Hockey at $1.35!!! Nearly all for Hockey, although one smaller punter had $250.00 on Turnbull at $4.65!

Hockey firms to $1.40 as Australia awaits another 25bp rate hike!

Leading election bookmaker Centrebet today shortened Shadow Treasurer Joe Hockey into a hot $1.40 favourite (from $1.50) to lead the Coalition at the next Federal election as the market for a double dissolution early poll squared off at $1.85 each!

Centrebet media chief and political analyst Neil Evans said money was still arriving for Hockey, although under-fire Leader Malcolm Turnbull ($4.00) was still attracting more interest than senior MP and challenger Tony Abbott who eases in betting from $3.50 out to $3.85!

“Punters seem undecided over whether Australia will go to the polls early in the wake of the explosive ETS debate, but the ‘No’ option at the opening price of $1.90 is shading the money, so we’re obligated to now make them $1.85 equal,” Evans said. “Certainly, the longer the Senate sits this week over the carbon reduction bill the greater chance we will be left with a double-dissolution early trigger, despite the PM shying away from the possibility!"

"We have to balance the Senate sitting with the bitter divisions inside the Opposition over Malcolm Turnbull's leadership, and rebellious and influential Coalition figures will desperately try to avoid being painted into a time-driven corner on the passing of the Bill!"

Meanwhile, the option of a 25bp rate rise from the Reserve Bank tomorrow closed a well-backed $1.28 favourite on Centrebet (in from $1.40) after weeks of trading! Evans said punters had backed both the 0.25 percent and Rates staying the same at different times, but in the end the nation appears set to cop a third consecutive rate hike!

NOVEMBER 26, 2009

PUNTERS BACK HOCKEY FROM $1.80 INTO $1.70 TO LEAD COALITION INTO NEXT ELECTION!

* Election punters have snapped up the $1.80 offered on Centrebet about Shadow Treasurer Joe Hockey leading the imploding Opposition into the next Federal election, pushing him into $1.70, as struggling Leader Malcolm Turnbull continues to drift in the market!

Centrebet media chief and analyst Neil Evans said several thousand had arrived for Mr Hockey today at the odds-on quotes, including one punter who unloaded just under $2,000.00. Mr Turnbull’s turned the full circle, suddenly no-one wants him at $3.45!

“Mr Hockey's reluctant, almost forced admission that he would be prepared to take on the top job in the wake of mass resignations from the front bench over the explosive ETS debate meant Mr Turnbull's leadership is seemingly headed for the scrap-heap!

Long-serving MP Tony Abbott has signalled a leadership challenge to Mr Turnbull if there is no retreat on the ETS deal, but privately Labor would be "laughing all the way to the bank" if Mr Abbott had the reins for the next election. It's always been our belief - and our market has reflected this - that Joe Hockey is the one Coalition politician who could bite into the ALP's significant margin at the next election. Without him as leader, the Coalition are 100/1!"

Mr Hockey has now firmed from $2.05 before the front bench revolt into $1.70, while Mr Turnbull, who had been backed to remain in the leader's job, has blown like a gale down the parliamentary corridor from $2.20 out to $3.45, while Mr Abbott firms from $4.50 into $3.15!

* The ALP, already heavily backed, has firmed into $1.17 on Centrebet to win the next election, with the Coalition now $4.65!

NOVEMBER 25, 2009

LABOR FIRMS TO $1.20 IN HEAD-TO-HEAD BETTING TO WIN NEXT ELECTION!

Leading election bookmaker Centrebet has firmed Labor from $1.23 into $1.20 – its shortest price since winning office two years back – to win the next election in the wake of the unsuccessful leadership spill against under-fire Coalition leader Malcolm Turnbull!

Centrebet media chief and analyst Neil Evans said the Coalition had blown from $4.00 to an all-time high $4.35, with the ALP commanding more than 85 per cent of nearly $100,000.00 traded!

And Shadow Treasurer Joe Hockey and Mr Turnbull are now $2.10 equal favourites on Centrebet to lead the Coalition to the next poll, with long-serving MP Tony Abbott drifting out from $3.75 to $5.00!

“Mr Turnbull’s 48-35 balloted victory is purely a ‘stay of proceedings,’ and given the polling numbers and the party division over the ETS, his leadership could well have its final chapter when parliament resumes in the New Year,” Evans said.

Embarrassing: Windies hit record-high outsider’s price for 1st Test!

The West Indies are set to start their longest head-to-head Test match price in cricketing history at $15.00 or bigger on Centrebet ahead of the first clash at the GABBA against Australia!

Centrebet media chief Neil Evans said Ricky Ponting’s Australians – despite being labelled a B grade squad – has firmed dramatically from $1.33 into $1.20, and is threatening to start shorter as punters, knowing the home side hasn’t lost a Test at the GABBA in 21 years, wipe the Windies’ bid off the planet!

“It’s both unprecedented and rather sad a touring West Indian squad can be completely wiped by the betting world ahead of a once-pedastalled series,” Evans said. “It doesn’t matter whether captain Chris Gayle’s ready to play or not, punters have decided Australia will win this match – and the series – in a cakewalk!”

And the series betting is similarly reflective, with Australia shortening from $1.16 into $1.10, while a Drawn series is quoted at $11.00 and the Windies again a whopping $15.00!

“Hundreds of bets from $100.00 up to $10,000.00 have arrived for the Aussies, and barely $1,000.00 in total for the Windies, despite the huge price. It’s easy to forget the capability of this Australian team is under such scrutiny after the disastrous Ashes loss in England,” Evans added!

Skipper Ricky Ponting has been backed into $3.50 to be the leading Australian run-scorer in the series, while Shivnarine Chanderpaul and Ramnaresh Sarwan are $3.25 equal favourites on the West Indian side.

NOVEMBER 24, 2009

Labor pressure after Coalition stalls on ETS!

Leading political bookmaker Centrebet has eased the well-backed Federal Labor government in betting after its heavily-concessioned Emmissions Trading Scheme deal was sensationally stalled by the Coalition today!

Centrebet media chief and analyst Neil Evans said major concessions and billion-dollar assistance relief measures to the coal, electricity, LNG and low-income household sectors – and the exclusion of agriculture - was a “major conceding of ground” from Prime Minister Rudd in his last-ditch bid to shore up Australia’s position on carbon pollution reduction ahead of the Copenhagen summit, and protect his own climate-clad leadership reputation!

“Coalition leader Malcolm Turnbull will see this as a victory for his leadership and the Opposition’s conflicting commitment, and price-wise in betting, his party is the slight winner from today’s announcement! The real winner, though, is the knockers and sceptics of global warming, while ‘green’ parties will label the PM a cop-out merchant!”

Labor had firmed into $1.22, but is now $1.23, while the Coalition shortens from a high $4.10 back into $4.00!

Nearly $100,000.00 has been wagered on the Federal election with Centrebet already, Labor commanding more than 85 per cent of all monies, although the ALP only leads actual bet numbers by 15 per cent!

“Really from $1.60 down, big punters have continued to target the Rudd government retaining office, especially striking when Mr Turnbull’s struggling leadership is hauled over the coals,” Evans said.

UNLUCKY IF HE GETS BEAT!

• Front-running star Lucky Secret remains $3.60 favourite on Centrebet to win Saturday’s Group 2 Winterbottom Stakes (1200m) at Ascot after drawing gate eight!

Centrebet media chief and race analyst Neil Evans said Lucky Secret should be able to get across to the front with little difficulty, and prove enormously hard to run down around a track that will suit!

“He’s clearly the one to beat, although the rising WA star Waratahs Secret ($4.60) – heavily backed on Centrebet already from $5.50 down – will also be suited, drawn alongside in nine,” Evans said. “The intersting runner is the mare Ortensia facing a stiff task coming back from the mile of the Railway to six furlongs here … and despite drawing the good six barrier, eases from $4.40 out to $5.00!

Evans said he expected Idyllic Prince ($6.00) to ease in betting, especially if the money comes hard for the favourite!

NOVEMBER 23, 2009

BIG MONEY ARRIVES FOR SCANDAL-HIT RANN TO RETAIN GOVT!

• Embattled SA Labor Premier Mike Rann has received an overwhelming boost today in the betting world, with sharp political punters on Centrebet rallying to back his party to retain government at the SA State election next March, including one punter who has bet $10,000.00 at $1.17!

Centrebet media chief and analyst Neil Evans said Labor was already a hot $1.14 favourite to retain office in SA, but he had decided to “test the waters” in the wake of Premier Rann’s sex scandal, easing the ALP to $1.17, and shortening the struggling Liberal Party from $5.10 into $4.65!

“The response was emphatic! Forget about Mr Rann putting the party’s future at the ballot box in doubt,” Evans said. “Straight away we took a bet of $15,000.00 at $1.17 from an inner Adelaide client, and several other bets up to $1,000.00 from across the city. Labor is now back into $1.16, with the legless Liberals easing again to $4.75!”

“It’s a clear-cut sign the Liberal Opposition is still shovelling s… up hill in its bid to overthrow Labor next March! Seemingly, they’ll need a lot more personality and policy change to forge a competitive election, judging from the punters’ reaction today!”

Evans said it was clear too that serious election watchers believe private life controversies have very little effect at the ballot box when it comes to backing election winners!

NOVEMBER 18, 2009

WHAT’S IN THE RBA’S STOCKING ? Does it rise, or stay the same?

Money turns ‘Stay the Same’ way after early surge for 25bp Interest Rate hike!

Financial punters with leading bookmaker Centrebet are swinging back the way of Interest Rates remaining on hold ahead of the critical December 1 Reserve Bank decision after the early money flooded in for a 25bp rate increase!

Centrebet media chief and analyst Neil Evans said a betting war had erupted between the two options, with “nothing else a chance” – but the last few days the financial thinking has shifted dramatically over what the RBA will do with the official cash rate!

“After we opened the 0.25 % increase a $1.40 favourite, we took plenty of early business, including wagers of $3,000.00 at $1.33, $1,000.00 at $1.22 and two separate bets of $1500.00 at $1.20,” Evans said. “But this week, the worm has turned – the ‘Stay the Same’ price drifted from $2.35 right out to $3.65 before a stock-broking client bet $500.00 at that price, then had another $500.00 at the $3.50. A further bet of $1500.00 arrived at $3.00 before another financial client then wagered $1,000.00 at $2.50 on ‘Stay the Same’!

“The battle is on – Stay the Same is back in to $2.40, with the 25bp increase back out now to $1.35! The 50bp rate rise is unwanted by punters, drifting from an opening $7.00 out to $11.00!

GOLD SALUTE $5.00 FAV TO WIN RAILWAY, BUT EARLY MONEY FOR ORTENSIA! WARATAHS SECRET BACKED TO WIN $30K IN WINTERBOTTOM!

Fresh from a luckless third in the feature Emirates Stakes at Flemington last Saturday, Gold Salute is $5.00 favourite with bookmaker Centrebet to win Saturday’s Group 1 Railway Stakes at Ascot in WA!

Shock Emirates Stakes winner All American ($6.50) and the talented Ortensia ($7.00) are on the second and third lines as eastern state invaders again prepare to dominate betting! The shortest WA runner is Grand Nirvana, who had little luck behind Elliotto in the Group 3 lead-up on the weekend, and is quoted at $8.50 on Centrebet, while Elliotto is considered a $14.00 shot!

Centrebet media chief and analyst Neil Evans said the first crop of bets in were for Ortensia at the $7.00! “That looks a good price, although he’ll need luck around the tighter Ascot circuit, but this should be a sensational betting race as the early market indicates,” Evans said.

• Meanwhile, boom WA three-year-old Waratahs Secret has been backed to win $30,000.00 by one Perth punter on Centrebet ahead of the feature Winterbottom Stakes at Ascot on November 28!

“This one client has simply knocked up backing Waratahs Secret, plonking on scores of bets at the $5.50 and unloading nearly $6,000.00 to win $30,000.00!” Evans said. “He’s backed the star youngster from a fair way out, and came storming back in after his last-start romp as a hot favourite when he clocked a very slick time!”

Idyllic Prince and Victorian star Ortensia are on the second line at $6.00, ahead of veteran warrior Apache Cat and the talented Nicconi, both at $6.50.

• MacKinnon Stakes winner Scenic Shot is a $4.40 All-In favourite on Centrebet to win the Kingston Town Classic (1800m) at Ascot on December 5 ahead of Vigor ($7.50)!

• And Gai Waterhouse’s front-running star Faulconbridge is a $3.00 favourite on Centrebet to win tomorrow’s Listed Gosford Gold Cup (2100m).

NOVEMBER 16, 2009

TEBBUTT FIRMS TO FAVOURITE TO TAKE OVER NSW ALP!

• Deputy Premier Carmel Tebbutt is the new $3.50 favourite on Centrebet to be Labor Premier when NSW next votes, scheduled for March 2011!

• But NSW Labor has drifted even further to an embarrassing $4.90 in head-to-head betting, with the Coalition shortening to a red-hot $1.16 fancy! Just last week, one Centrebet client wagered $15,000.00 on a change of government at $1.19! The Coalition currently commands 85 per cent of all bets and money on Centrebet.

Centrebet media chief and analyst Neil Evans said Ms Tebbutt had almost come “the full circle” after she opened $2.10 favourite for the top NSW job right back at the start of the year! “Premier Nathan Rees’ heroic stance at the NSW State Conference to slam the door on the factional dealers within his party was a last-ditch bid to announce personal strength and leadership, but what he has done is leave himself wide open whereby only a dramatic improvement in personal and party polling numbers can save his bacon with still 16 tough months to run in office,” Evans said.

“The pollsters will work overtime, and while the smart political money has never really arrived for Ms Tebbutt, even when she drifted as high as $4.50, she has the surrounding power to make a successful run for Premier if she truly desires!”

Ms Tebbutt, the NSW Health Minister, firms from $3.70 into $3.50 favourite, with Mr Rees remaining on the second line at $3.70, ahead of struggling Planning Minister Kristina Keanneally ($4.15) and former Planning Minister Frank Sartor ($5.25)! One-time Health Minister the scandal-hit John Della Bosca remains an $8.00 chance!

NOVEMBER 13, 2009

RACING NEWS

HAY LIST RAGE

• Sydney punter just outlayed around $5,600.00 across several bets all at the $1.80 on Hay List to win the Group 3 Colonel Reeves Stakes tomorrow! …Perth punter also just had $2,000.00 at the $1.80 …. We’ve taken a tonne of bravery pills betting 2.05 down to 1.80 which is still considered a good price for a horse that will win by panels, considering the 1100m around the tight Ascot circuit is perfect! Just did a percentage run and can’t remember the last time a horse held 99.5 % of all pre-post money!

“We’re betting $4.20 All-In about this horse winning the Group 2 Winterbottom Stakes in a fortnight against some of the best sprinters around. This should be no more than a working gallop!”

• Punters took an immediate liking to the opening $2.75 on Centrebet about form three-year-old Kidnapped ahead of the Group 2 Sandown Guineas (1600m)!

Sharp money came quickly, including $2,000.00 at $2.75 and $1400.00 at the same price! I have no doubt Kidnapped is the measuring stick in the race, but the market suggests both Khas Kura (opened $4.50) and Majestic Music ($5.00) are right in the race. Tempo over the mile will be crucial, with Kidnapped needing a good speed to get home over the top.

For that reason, I found it hard settling on one in the Guineas, but I am very comfortable plonking on Zipping to win the Sandown Classic again, especially after the major disappointment on Derby Day when he was caught up under the barrier at Flemington and subsequently withdrawn from the Group 1 MacKinnon Stakes (2000m)! WA warrior Scenic Shot went on to a dominant win, but just remember, that horse finished behind a hard-finishing Zipping in the Cox Plate, and I’d much rather take the $4.60 about Zipping than the opening $3.50 quote about Scenic Shot!

Of course, the difficulty is lining up these consistent weight-for-age performers against the rising stars like Purple, Miss Maren and Raffaello! Plenty said to me the opening $9.00 about Raffaello was big odds, but despite his strong win last start when he got all the breaks, I don’t like him here over 2400m at weight-for-age. Last-start Flemington winner Purple may be a different story. She’s strong all the way to the wire, and will race near the lead. And some well-connected punters were very happy to step in to the opening $9.00 shortening Purple into $8.00.

There’s also been good wagers on Master O’Reilly around the $6.50 mark, with a couple of punters backing him to win nearly $10,000.00 each. But as honest and consistent as he is, I believe Master O’Reilly is a real risk at weight-for-age having to come from the back of the field!

• The most confident move across the country has come for boom Perth sprinter Hay List ahead of the Group 3 Colonel Reeves Stakes (1100m) at Ascot! Punters moved like wildfire to back Hay List at Centrebet’s opening $2.05 and he shortened quickly into odds-on. One client has wagered nearly $5,000.00 across several bets at $1.90 and $1.85, while other bets include $1500.00 at $1.95, $2,000.00 at $1.95, and $2,000.00 at $1.85. Hay List has tightened into $1.80 favourite, with barely a nickel for any other horse in the race. He’ll win again!

And Grand Nirvana – luckless at his last start – has also been heavily backed from $4.40 down to $4.00 ahead of the Group 3 R. J. Peters Stakes (1500m) – and looks super hard to beat.

NOVEMBER 11, 2009

Senden to tame the Tiger!

Punters on Centrebet are backing only one player to upstage the Tiger Woods glamour show at this week’s Australian Masters – Queenslander John Senden who has firmed from a $21.00 shot into $19.00, having been as short as $16.00 after a flurry of bets!

Centrebet media chief Neil Evans said with punters queuing up to back Tiger from an opening $2.75 favourite on Centrebet into $2.40, nearly every player in the Masters field has drifted out, except for Senden who’s been tipped in some quarters to tame Kingston Heath, and bring down the greatest player the game has seen!

“We’ve taken a tonne of bets on Senden, including $5,000.00 at $19.00, $3,500.00 at $19.00, $2,000.00 at $17.00 and a few close to $1,000.00 at the opening $21.00, and many more smaller wagers across a range of prices,” Evans said. “Senden’s a real pure striker of the ball, and he actually got into $16.00, but the constant flow of bets for Tiger means we are able to keep every other player in the field at the most competitive of prices!”

Senden is a $3.00 equal favourite with Adam Scott to be the leading Queenslander at the Masters, while Geoff Ogilvy is $4.50 to be the top Victorian and youngster James Nitties is a $4.50 favourite to lead home the NSW players!

Evans said scores of bets from $100.00 up to $5,000.00 had arrived for Tiger Woods – his first appearance Down Under since 1998! But Tiger is paying a juicy $5.25 on Centrebet to be leading after the first round.

Further out in the field, high-price betting interest has come for Marc Leishman who has shortened from $41.00 down to $36.00, and Steven Bowditch who has firmed dramatically from $101.00 into $56.00!

25bp hike heads Interest Rate market! Punter slams 15k on SA Labor at $1.15.. but NSW Labor blows to $4.50!

Leading financial bookmaker Centrebet has opened the 25bp increase a $1.40 favourite for the much-anticipated December 1 Reserve Bank interest rate decision!

Centrebet media chief and analyst Neil Evans said the rolling RBA “hikes” of 0.25 per cent were likely to continue, although the odds of the official cash rate staying the same ($2.35) were now much shorter than the feared heavier 50bp rise ($9.00)!

“The RBA’s mooted target cash rate – together with the fact there is no official Reserve Bank meeting scheduled for January - means another rate rise is the favourite,” Evans said. “But we are not completely ruling out the RBA pausing and keeping rates on hold so close to Christmas, and allowing consumers some breathing space. We’ll find out soon which figure is the rightful favourite, but the economy - particularly in key commercial sectors - continues to rebound meaning mortgage holders can expect more pain down the line!”

NEXT OFFICIAL RBA INTEREST RATE MOVE (Sch: Dec 1)

$1.40 INCREASE BY 0.01 – 0.25 % $2.35 STAYS THE SAME $9.00 INCREASE BY 0.26 – 0.50 % $21.00 INCREASE BY MORE THAN 0.50 % $34.00 ANY DECREASE

• Meanwhile, an election punter with Centrebet is in no doubt Labor will retain office at next year’s South Australian State election, unloading $15,000.00 on Mike Rann’s government at the short price of $1.15 to win!

Evans said the bookmaker responded by trimming the ALP to $1.14, with the struggling Liberals now out to $5.10 to win office!

• In NSW, Deputy Premier and Health Minister Carmel Tebbutt has joined embattled Premier Nathan Rees on the front line of betting at $3.70 in the race to see who has the government reins when the State goes to the polls, scheduled for March 2011!

One-time favourite Planning Minister Kristina Kenneally has eased out to $4.00, with the former Planning Minister Frank Sartor ($5.00) continuing to drift! But controversial former Health Minister John Della Bosca continues to attract ‘smart’ money and has shortened again on Centrebet from $9.00 down to $8.00!

• In Federal politics, embattled Coalition leader Malcolm Turnbull has tightened from $2.30 into $2.13 on Centrebet to still be in charge when Australia next votes, although Shadow Treasurer Joe Hockey remains a $1.95 favourite to take over the Coalition leadership!

• And in Tasmania, the Labor government has tightened marginally into $1.68 after dominating the early money, with the Liberals now quoted at $2.15!

NOVEMBER 6, 2009

PUNTER BACKS DELLA TO WIN NEARLY $10,000.00 NOTHING’S DELUSIONAL WHEN YOU’RE AGAINST THE WALL!

• An election punter with leading bookmaker Centrebet has backed controversial former NSW Health Minister John Della Bosca to win nearly $10,000.00 amid claims he continues to rebuild his bid to take over the top job!

Centrebet media chief and political analyst Neil Evans said a surge of money came for Della Bosca at $16.00, forcing his price right into $9.00 – and “well and truly back in the frame” to lead embattled Labor into the next NSW election, 16 months away! “We never really had Della out of the picture. Even when the extra-marital affair blew up and he was embarrassingly forced from his senior portfolio, we only pushed him out to $21.00. He had previously shortened dramatically into $4.00, and was seemingly on the brink of grabbing the top job from under-fire Premier Nathan Rees,” Evans said.

“But even when he was re-posted at 20/1, punters still wanted a piece of it, and now we have this one client who’s backed him to win $10k, amid plenty of more smaller bets as well. I remember, within days of losing his position as Health Minister, Della Bosca was garnishing support, and immediately holding functions to try and re-build his reputation. And, of course, he’s long been thought of as one of the sharpest political minds in the NSW Labor machine. Mix that in with the fact the ALP has now blown to an unwanted $4.35 in head-to-head betting against the Coalition ($1.20) and you can understand why Della is back on the leadership radar!”

Planning Minister Kristina Kenneally and Premier Rees are $3.75 co-favourites with Centrebet ahead of Ms Tebbutt ($4.00)!

Evans said Labor was running out of cards to play even this far out from an election, although the biggest ‘smokey’ in the market was still Carmel Tebbutt. “Carmel’s $4.10 back in to $4.00, and if she decides to make a genuine run for the position, her support is obvious,” he said. “I bumped into a few of the Labor pollies at Flemington on Cup day, and they’re hardly impressed with the state of play in NSW!”

Centrebet has already taken nearly $30,000.00 on the next NSW poll, with nearly 90 per cent of bets for Barry O’Farrell’s Liberal-National Coalition!

OCTOBER 30, 2009

BETTING APPRAISAL AHEAD OF VRC DERBY DAY

MELB CUP LATEST// One big client has thrown a spanner in the works today, plonking $10,000.00 on Efficient at $8.00 to win the Melbourne Cup. This follows 24 hours of very sharp money (nearly $10,000.00) on Viewed from $7.00 down to $5.50 …. Our belief is still that Efficient is more likely to miss the big race! Holding the market as is with Alcopop second-elect at $6.00 … Roman Emperor at $9.00!!

• And further out in the market, new client from Sydney’s east just had $1000.00 each-way on NZ stayer Hoorang to win Melbourne Cup at $201.00! Pretty bold considering he’s 33rd in order of entry and unlikely to gain a start!!! /////

VRC Derby: Shamoline Warrior. A deserved favourite with the perfect preparation. Formline coming in looks superior to the Geelong Classic, although both Rockferry and Our Heir Apparent are genuine dangers! That said, in the last 24 hours Spring Champion Stakes winner Monaco Counsul has been very heavily backed firming from $6.50 into $5.50, with good money coming for Rockferry, including on bet of $3,000.00, who also tightened from a high price of $6.00 back in to $5.50! Our Heir Apparent at around $18.00 is the massive each-way value in the race.

Best Bet: Faint Perfume (Wakeful Stakes). Now that we’ve got to the 2000m in carnival time, it’s showtime for this Bart Cummings filly. She looks beautifully placed against this lot, and I believe she’ll go on to win the Crown Oaks next Thursday!

Lay of the Day: Run For Narra (Wakeful Stakes). Up against the talented Faint Perfume, and while she’s in good form, the inside draw is not ideal for a horse that wants room and would prefer to get to the outside. Under the odds, and a decent risk!

Best backed runners: Rangirangdoo (Mackinnon Stakes): Punters had no hesitation in diving head-first into the opening $4.00 about Rangirangdoo, quickly pushing him into clear $3.80 favourite. Another surge of money has seen him tumble to $3.40. Bets include $5,000.00 at $3.60, $2,500.00 at $3.40 and $2,000.00 at $3.70. Dominant win last start, but this is another level and a further test out to 2000m. First Command (Salinger Stakes): Again backed to the exclusion of every other runner, firming from $2.90 into $2.70! Can dominate from up front again, and owns nearly all of the first $10,000.00 wagered on this race, including $2,000.00 at $2.80, $1500.00 at $2.90 and $1,000.00 at $2.80! Short time ago took a bet of $4,000.00 at $2.70 First Command.

There’s also been a very good move today for Hume in the Lexus Stakes, backed from $7.50 into $6.50, including one bet of $2,500.00 at $7.50, and another of $1,000.00 each-way at the $7.50!

Best Roughie: Britomart (Lexus Stakes): Does get back, but has been hitting the line well in lead-up races, and having little luck! Slick staying bunch here, but is one for the each-way punters at huge odds!

Significant betting moves: Despite our high opinion of Faint Perfume at the 2000m, punters have still stepped in to Wakeful favourite Run For Narra backing it in from $2.80 down to $2.70, including bets of $2,500.00 and $1750.00 at the opening quote!

Last-start winner Typhoon Tracy has dominated the early money at her opening quote of $2.25, including one bet of $5,000.00, ahead of the Group 1 Myer Classic! Now offering $2.35 (Best price around)….Punters have wiped arch-rival Hot Danish, easing from $4.40 out to $4.80, while we will keep Neroli on the safer side around $6.50 believing it is the favourite’s danger!

** Irish Lights has been very well backed TO WIN THE Coolmore Stud Stakes from $8.00 down to $6.00, one bet of $5,000.00 at $6.50, … although no surprise seeing we layed him big time from the off!!!