MEDIA RELEASE OCTOBER 1
INTEREST RATE CUT IN OCTOBER? YOU BET!

With the Reserve Bank to meet next week to discuss official interest rates, punters with betting agency Lasseters Sportsbook are predicting a cut by over a quarter of one percent.

When Lasseters opened its market for October a rate cut of a quarter of a percent was the hot favourite at $1.30 (now $2.20) with any cut above that listed at $8.00 (now $1.65).

After being inundated by requests to bet on Australia’s official cash rate, Australian bookmaking pioneer Gerard Daffy opened the unique market for the first time last month.

“We had a huge response to our market with punters successfully backing the rate cut, and according to financial gurus around the country they look like being right again,” Daffy said.

“The meltdown on stock exchanges around the globe has turned this market on its head as the early money was for rates to stay the same, but a slashing of rates is now all the rage.”

The good news for mortgage holders is the possibility of an interest rate is highly unlikely with a rise of 25 basis points listed at $41.00 and any rise above that quoted at $201.00.

Thursday 2nd October

Rugby League

Melbourne and Manly will battle it out for rugby league supremacy on Sunday evening, and while Melbourne were competition favourites for most of 2008, it is the Sea Eagles who will go in as public elects.

The media circus that has surrounded the suspension of Cameron Smith seems to have turned punters away from the Storm as there has been little or no interest in them this week. The opening prices saw Melbourne at 2.00 with Manly at 1.80, but constant support (including two $5000 bets) has seen the price for Manly cut to 1.75.

Manly are a side that most league supporters despise (unless of course you follow them), but it seems as though there is a strong 'anti Melbourne' feeling out there, and that is being felt in the betting ring. Melbourne did a mighty job of disposing of the Sharks last week, and it was Cooper Cronk who stepped up to the plate.

Our league analyst thinks there is nothing between these two sides, so we will be taking the Sea Eagles on. All of the normal betting options (as well as several more) will be available, and the most popular of those is always the Clive Churchill Medal. Punters normally latch on to the backs, but they haven't always been the winners of this prestigious award. Two of the last five winners have been hookers, and of the 20 Churchill Medals that have been awarded, nine of those have gone to locks or props.

Cooper Cronk is our opening 6.00 favourite ahead of Billy Slater, Brett Stewart and Matt Orford at 8.00, but we will be keeping on the side of Manly's Anthony Watmough (10.00) and Michael Crocker (15.00) from Melbourne. For either side to win, both Watmough and Crocker will be all important, so that is where the value lies.

Australian Rules

Hawthorn will go into the record books as the winner of the 2008 AFL flag, and that victory provided plenty of relief for bookies.

Geelong had been favourites all year, but the amazing thing was that when Grand Final week came around, the Cats were a better price (1.45) than the 1.35 that was on offer the previous two weeks. There were some signs of fatigue in their match against the Bulldogs, but the experts did point out that a similar thing happened against Collingwood last year before Geelong went on to thump Hawthorn.

That was a valid point, but Hawthorn always looked a more dangerous prospect than Port was last year. It was also interesting to see that punters didn't really latch on to the Hawks, with their price drifting from 2.90 out to 3.20 at kick off. Normally in a grand final of any code there are massive amounts of support for the underdogs, but this time around it didn't eventuate. The biggest bet that Lasseters took for the Hawks was $15,000 at 2.90, with Geelong attracting a wager of $22,000 at 1.45.

The Cats ending up starting at 1.36 on the back of some heavy multi activity, mostly coupled up with Manly to beat the Warriors in the NRL, so it was more than a handy result for a side that we were already standing in premiership betting. With Geelong losing, that also saw massive liabilities disappear for a Cats/Melbourne Storm premiership double.

With Hawthorn winning, most of the exotic bets on the Grand Final went the way of the bookies, and we even had a winning result on the Norm Smith Medal! Luke Hodge was well in the betting at 14.00, but there had been a lot of talk about the fact that if he was to play, it may well be with broken ribs.

It all came out afterwards that his ribs were bruised, not broken, but the rumours seemed to turn punters away. The most significant wager for Hodge was a bet of $500, with punters preferring the Geelong midfield and of course Buddy Franklin. Gary Ablett ended up running second in the Norm Smith, four votes in arrears of Hodge, and Ablett will be the favourite for next year's Brownlow Medal when markets are issued.

Formula One

Fernando Alonso went into Sunday's Singapore Grand Prix as one of the outsiders of the field at 67.00, and the lucky win by the Spaniard gave bookies an unexpected result.

Alonso had actually performed quite well in a couple of the free practice sessions, but had some problems in the qualifying sessions which saw him start from 15 on the grid. That all but ended any chance he had as it was always going to be hard to make ground on the street circuit from so far back in the field.

He worked his way through the field, and several mishaps saw Alonso hold a handy lead with just seven laps left. Adrian Sutil crashed into a wall at that stage which saw the safety car come out, but Alonso was able to maintain the front position and he went on to beat Nico Rosberg (151.00) and Lewis Hamilton, who started second elect at 3.00.

Race favourite Felipe Massa appeared to be on track for victory until a major mishap occurred at one of his pit stops. The Brazilian was given a green light after a fuel stop, but when he took off, the fuel hose was still attached to his car. That was the end of Massa�s chances, as well as those who had backed him. After being 3.50 earlier in the week, Massa started the race as a 1.80 chance, backed in from 2.00 after grabbing pole position. There is little doubt Massa has been the unlucky driver of season 2008, and he could quite easily have been leading up the driver�s championship table. Instead, it is Lewis Hamilton who holds all the aces, and he is now 1.33 to take the title with Massa at 3.25.

Motor Bikes

Yamaha's Valentino Rossi was simply just too good in the Japanese MotoGP on Sunday, and Rossi wrapped up another rider's title with another impressive win.

Rossi started from fourth on the grid, and while we were of the opinion that he may ride cautiously to ensure enough points to win the title, punters saw it differently, and profited accordingly. Lasseters opened Rossi at 3.00 after qualifying was over, but sustained support (including one bet of 1800 euro) saw Rossi oust Casey Stoner as favourite.

At race time, Rossi was in to 2.40, with Stoner easing out to 2.65 after being 2.25 on Sunday morning. Stoner was no match for Rossi who went on to win his fifth race on end, but the result does make for an intriguing race this weekend in Australia. Rossi has the title, Stoner will be desperate to win on home soil, and Dani Pedrosa and Jorge Lorenzo showed enough in Japan to say that they are close to nearing their best form. Aussie punters love Rossi, so we expect there will be plenty of support for both Rossi (2.25) and Stoner (2.50), but we rate the other two riders a real threat around Phillip Island.

Interest Rates

The Lasseters market on interest rates has been one of the most volatile we have ever covered.

When the market opened at the start of September, a decrease of 0.25% was the favourite way at 1.30, but all of the early money was for the rate to stay the same. That particular option was backed from an opening 3.50, touched 2.00 at one stage (bet of $2000 at that quote), but is now back out to 8.00.

The big move has been for a decrease of more than 0.25%, which is now 1.65 after touching 26.00 early in the month. One punter placed $40 at 26.00, and there has been a sprinkling of bets all the way down to 11.00, but the collapse in the US market all happened too quickly for punters to take advantage of the prices that were available.

At the time of writing, a reduction of more than 0.25% was trading at 1.65, with takers also coming for a 0.25% drop at 2.10, so our book is in pretty good shape at the moment.

Dancing With The Stars

Well I suppose it was only a matter of time before Red Symonds was voted of DWTS, and his demise came on Sunday night.

It has been terrific having him on the show as punters had bet heavily on Red being voted off each week, yet this week he was virtually unwanted. After opening at 3.00, Red's odds of elimination drifted out to 3.50, with Luke Jacobz (3.00) and Jodi Gordon (6.00) the two that punters plonked on. Jodi and Red were the bottom two, and it was Jodi who lived to fight another day.

Toni Pearen remains the 2.25 favourite to win, although the judges appear to be talking her down, and a few of the others up! That has created plenty of interest, with Charli Delaney zooming back into second pick at 4.50, and we have also seen some money for Paul Lucuria (6.00) and Danny Green at 7.00.

With the field now down to six, it becomes very tricky to try and work out who will be leaving, so much so that the favourite way this week is Jodi at 3.75, narrowly ahead of Luke at 4.00. In early trading, we have taken close to $800 for Jodi, but there is genuine interest in all of the dancers, so from here on in, it is anyone's guess as to who will be voted off each week.

Australian Idol

Tom Williams was vying for Aussie Idol favouritism after the first show in the current series, but it appears as though the comparisons to Matt Corby caught up with the South Australian youngster.

Tom had been well down in the betting at 21.00 for the past fortnight, but our entertainment analyst thought that he would remain in the competition for at least another few weeks. Williams was one of the outsiders at 13.00 to be eliminated at the weekend, but there was really good backing for him to go, and that is exactly what happened.

It was interesting to note that Madam and Teale were also in the bottom three along with Tom, and those two have easily been the best backed over the last two weeks to win the whole competition. Madam had been backed to take out nearly $20,000 at around the 9.00 mark, and Teale's fans also backed him to win a similar amount at 15.00.

Both have eased in the betting now, and Teale is out 3.50 favourite to be eliminated this week. The theme for Sunday's show is 'ABBA', and that has made the task of pricing up the elimination all that much harder. We can see some of the singers slaughtering any ABBA song, so what the judges say will be all important as the competition looks very even.

Most of the singers have spent some time in the bottom three, but Wes Carr seems to be the one person who is avoiding the public's wrath. For that reason alone he is now into 2.75 to win Idol, but punters haven't really been keen to take the short odds.