Bill Gates’ punting lessons
By David Duffield of www.championpicks.com.au
12th JULY, 2008

You mightn't expect the quotes of the world's biggest nerd Bill Gates to have much in common with successful punting, but reading some of his favourite sayings recently did make me stop and think of the similarities between the two.

Let's look at Gates’ final thoughts before retirement and then relate them to the sport of kings, because you might be surprised at the punting parallels:

(1) "This is a fantastic time to be entering the business world, because business is going to change more in the next 10 years than it has in the last 50."

I'd suggest that this is a fantastic time to be entering the punting world. It wasn't so long ago that you really had only two choices if you wanted to have a bet; you either had to be on course or at a TAB outlet. Nowadays a punter can phone his on-track bookmaker, or use a corporate bookie, or bet with an exchange like Betfair. 

There will continue to be a boom in racing information. Whether it's form, ratings, computer analysis, statistics or speed maps, the keen punter has a wealth of information at their fingertips and can use this to their advantage.

The internet, mobile phones and other emerging technologies mean that the punting landscape will continue to change rapidly. The world really is the modern-day punter's oyster.

(2) "If GM had kept up with technology like the computer industry has, we would all be driving $25 cars that got 1000 miles per gallon."

If the TAB had embraced technology, they wouldn't be experiencing such a decline in market share. All but the most naive punter knows that the TAB takeout makes it close to impossible to be a long-term winner, yet the TAB has made no attempt to use IT advancements to reduce their commission and make their product more competitive. Their takeout remains close to double that of Hong Kong racing and locals are voting with their betting dollars by seeking more competitive punting alternatives.

(3) "The internet will help achieve "friction free capitalism" by putting buyer and seller in direct contact and providing more information to both about each other."

Without the internet there would be no such thing as a betting exchange or corporate bookmaker. Betfair has used modern technology to cut out the bookmaker or TAB 'middleman' and put backer's and layer's in direct contact. Betfair's continued growth is inevitable and can help attract the younger demographic, a market that the racing industry craves.

(4) "We are always saying to ourself… we have to innovate. We got to come up with that breakthrough. In fact, the way software works... so long as you are using your existing software... you don't pay us anything at all. So we're only paid for breakthroughs."

Just like Microsoft, punters are also only paid for breakthroughs. If you do the form the same way as everyone else, you won't have an edge and therefore won't be getting 'paid'. To be a successful punter you need to beat the market and this can only be achieved by analysing the form and/or prices in a way that's different to the masses.

(5) "Intellectual property has the shelf life of a banana."

And so do punting 'truths'. Just because many people believe that most horses struggle second-up, or coming back in distance, or going up in weight doesn't necessarily make it true. And even if it is true today, what works for a punter right now may not work tomorrow. So don't think that just because something has worked for the last few months or even years that it will continue to do so going forward.

We may curse Bill Gates any time our computer crashes, but hopefully as punter’s we have learnt a little from his adapted sayings.

Good punting

David Duffield

Champion Picks

www.championpicks.com.au