AFL PREVIEWS & PLAYS
... with OnThePunt's Aussie Rules Guru
Updated 1:47 PM AEST, Friday 18 July
AFL ROUND SEVENTEEN
POSTED APPROX. 1200 AEST FRIDAY
AFL ROUND SIXTEEN
Kangaroos vs Collingwood
NO PLAY
North Melbourne surprised by dropping N Thompson and Grima and included
Grant and Jones. Collingwood have made no changes to the side that beat
Adelaide last week. North Melbourne won this game earlier in the year by
7 points after trailing early in the last quarter. Collingwood has won 6
from its last 8 games this year whereas North Melbourne has won 4
matches from its last 8 games. The Bookies have Collingwood around 1.45
and North Melb at 2.75. The Line is 15.5 which looks about right to me
so no bet.
Geelong -12.5 vs Bulldogs
2 at 1.92
+1.84
The Cats have lost Ablett and Ling as expected and included Kelly and
Prismall. The Dogs dropped Hill and Wight for Griffen and Welsh. This
game looks like the match of the Round with 1 versus 2. The Cats have
been in sensational form over the past month with an average winning
margin of 84 points. The Bulldogs are travelling pretty well themselves
but this is a big step up to face the Cats at Skilled Stadium. The
Bulldogs have already beaten Hawthorn, Sydney and Collinwood so they
have the ability to compete at the highest level. Ablett and Ling are
big outs but I think the Cats have dominated the competition for the
past 18 months and see no reason to change here. Bet 2 units on Cats
-13.5 or better. (BEST BET)
Richmond vs Essendon
NO PLAY
All the early money has been for Richmond which has seen there price
shorten from 1.85 to 1.65. The move was on the back of the news that Mc
Veigh would miss with a knee injury for Essendon. Lovett has also been
suspended by the club and they have been replaced by Atkinson and Dyson.
They are big outs for the inform Essendon who have won their past 4
games in a row, but two of those wins were against West Coast and
Fremantle. Richmond's form is not bad with three wins from its past four
games and they've made no changes to the side that belted West Coast last week
but they are still missing Richardson. Richmond beat Essendon by 38
points when they last clashed in Round Nine. I think Richmond is short
enough without Richo, but Mc Veigh and Lovett out will hurt the Bombers
midfield. I’m not prepared to bet either way at the current price.
Brisbane vs West Coast
NO PLAY
I think it’s impossible to get involved here from a betting prospective
with West Coast possibly tanking for the rest of the year. Brisbane's form
has been poor over the past month and they have key injury concerns with both
Black and Brown doubtful. Brisbane's price is terribly short but not if
West Coast tanking so no bet for me.
St. Kilda vs Hawthorn
NO PLAY
The Saints included Fiora and Schneider for Allen and Gwilt who have
been dropped. The Hawks bring back Bateman for the injured Crawford. The
Saints have found some form winning their last 3 games this year but
have not looked that convincing at times. Likewise the Hawks have
bounced back with consecutive wins after the loss to North Melbourne 3
weeks ago. Price looks about right no bet for me.
Carlton vs Sydney
NO PLAY
No major changes for either side. Sydney is coming off consecutive
losses and travels back to Telstra Dome. The Swans are not in great form
at the moment and Carlton look some chance in the game. The Blues have
won 3 from its last 5 games in 2008 and was a chance to win both games
it lost in that period. I think the price looks about right so no bet
for me.
Port Adelaide vs Adelaide
NO PLAY
I found this another very tough game with both sides struggling. Hard to
make a case for either side based on current form. The Crows have lost
Porplyzia and Burton to injury and included Jericho, Mackay, Mc Gregor,
Mc Leod, Morgan and Otten to an expanded interchange bench. Port has
lost White with a hamstring injury and included Lade, Salopek, Stewart
and Wilson to its expanded interchange bench. The game looks too tough to
pick a winner so no bet for me.
Fremantle -16.5 vs Melbourne
2 at 1.92
+1.84
Fremantle lost Solomon to suspension,
Palmer to general soreness and dropped Hinkley. They included Josh Head
for his first game along with Duffield, Bradley, Mc Manus, O’Brien and
Murphy to its expanded bench. Melbourne lost Green with a hamstring and
included Davey, Mc Donald, white and Yze to its expanded bench. I have
been tipping Fremantle all year and figure if they can’t beat Melbourne
and cover the line at home its time for Mark Harvey to go just like Big
Brother. So bet 2 units on Fremantle -16.5 or better.
AFL ROUND FIFTEEN
Carlton vs St. Kilda
NO PLAY
Carlton welcomes back captain Chris Judd
for O’Hailpan whilst St Kilda gets back Hayes for Charlie Gardiner. St
Kilda has won its last 9 games against St Kilda but we must remember
Carlton was tanking in probably 6 of those games. Carlton has won 3 from
its past 4 games this year. St Kilda has also hit some form with
consecutive wins over the past 2 weeks. I don’t think there will be a
lot in this game and the Bookies have come up with St Kilda being slight
favourites, so no bet for me.
Adelaide +17.5 vs Collingwood
3 at 1.91
-3
Collingwood made no changes to the side that easily beat Sydney last
week whilst Adelaide included Griffin and Campbell for the injured
Reilly and dropped Gill. Collingwood broke its 2 game losing streak with
an unexpected win over Sydney last week. Adelaide is on a 3 game losing
streak having lost to the Hawks at AAMI by 4 points, Brisbane at the
Gabba by 13 points and Geelong at AAMI by 68 points but who is not
losing to Geelong in the last 2 years? I expect the Crows to bounce back
and have won 5 from its last 6 games against Collingwood. I am expecting
a close game and happy to bet 3 units on Adelaide @ +16.5 or better
(BEST BET).
Geelong -44.5 vs Fremantle
2 at 1.92
+1.84
Geelong made no changes to its winning side whilst Fremantle made 4
changes trying to find a winning combination. The Dockers lost Bell to
retirement, Hayden and Dunn to injury and dropped Peake. They included
McPharlin, Michael Johnson, Farmer and Browne. The Dockers surprised The
Cats at Subiaco earlier in the year but the Cats have hit some form over
the past month and should easily account for the Dockers at Skilled
Stadium. Bet 2 units on Geelong -45.5 or better.
Essendon vs Brisbane
NO PLAY
Essendon has included Slattery and Neagle for the injured Myers and
dropped Dyson. Brisbane included Johnstone, Stiller and Leuenberger for
Macdonald (ankle), Polkinghorne and Sherman. Brisbane is coming off a
one point to Melbourne last round and has lost consecutive games in 2008
but Essendon is tougher to beat than earlier in the year including 3
wins on the trot. I think Brisbane deserves to be favourites but the
line looks about right so no bet for me.
Port Adelaide vs Kangaroos
NO PLAY
Port Adelaide is going through one of its worst patches of football
since joining the AFL with only one win from its last 7 games. The Power
has lost Gray to injury and dropped Stewart for Chad Cornes and Surjan.
North Melbourne has made 4 changes including dropping Grant (club
imposed suspended), C Jones, Riggio and Obst. They have included Ross,
Grima, Goldstein and McMahon. Port could not play any worse and on paper
look the winner but North Melbourne has beaten the Western Bulldogs,
Hawthorn and ran Geelong to 13 points over the last 6 weeks. I’m finding
it hard to make a case for either side and no result would surprise me
here. On that basis I don’t want to get involved in this game.
Sydney +14.5 vs Hawthorn
2 at 1.92
-2
Hawthorn has included Taylor, Tuck, Bateman, Kennedy and Sewell to its
expanded squad and lost Renouf to suspension and Lewis with a quad
injury. Sydney has lost Hall to suspension and included Goodes, Grundy,
Schmidt and Smith to its expanded squad. Sydney has won the last 6
matches between the sides and is coming off its first lost in its last 6
matches in 2008. The Hawks are missing Dew, Crawford, and Lewis from its
best side. Sydney has a great record over the Hawks and can close down a
game when required. I expect Sydney to bounce back from last weeks loss
and Hall out might be a blessing in disguise as they played well when he
was out earlier in the year. Bet 2 units on Sydney @ +13.5 or better.
Bulldogs vs Melbourne
NO PLAY
The Bulldogs have left out Griffen for family reasons and included
Harbrow, Street, Wight and Ward to its expanded squad. Melbourne has
lost Mc Lean for the season to injury and has dropped the suspended
Davey. They have included Bell, Carroll, Morton, Newton and White to its
expanded squad. The Bulldogs are flying and see no reason for it to
change against Melbourne who surprised Brisbane last round. The Demons
have been more competitive in the last few rounds so the line looks high
at over 40 points but the Bulldogs can pile up some big scores on the
fast Telstra Dome. I’m happy to stay out of this game so no bet for me.
West Coast vs Richmond
NO PLAY
West Coast has dropped Staker and Graham and included Braun, B Jones,
Kennedy, MacKenzie and Wirrapanda to its expanded squad. The Tigers have
lost Richardson and Polak to injury and dropped Hyde. There is some
doubt about Kerr playing and if this is the case I expect some support
to come for the Tigers. Earlier in the year when the Tigers came to
Subiaco they belted the Dockers but started around the 8.00 mark. Who
would of thought that the Tigers would be starting around the 2.00 mark
or odds on at Subiaco against West Coast at the start of the season? At
the current odds of around 2.00 I don’t want to get involved with either
side.
+1.84
-3
RECORD
