AFL PREVIEWS & PLAYS
... with OnThePunt's Aussie Rules Guru
Updated 1:54 AM AEST, Saturday 4 July
WANT TO KNOW WHEN NEW
TIPS ARE POSTED? FOLLOW US @TWITTER
AFL ROUND FOURTEEN
Collingwood vs Essendon
NO PLAY
Collingwood are really flying and close to
full strength, and will be keen to avenge their earlier loss when they
were still finding their straps for the season. Essendon will miss
Watson in the midfield, and while I expect them to cover the line, the
'Pies have a way of running away with things when they are on top. NO
PLAY
West Coast to bt Melbourne
1 at 1.90
?
The selection revolving door continues at
Melbourne, while West Coast haven't won an away game for a very long
time. A game like might be a question of who loses rather than who wins.
The market can't make up its mind which team is worse - I think it's
Melbourne, so bet 1 unit on West Coast at 1.90 or better
Port Adelaide vs Brisbane
NO PLAY
Brisbane are running hot, and Port, after
a few good games, have really floundered in recent games. They will
welcome the opportunity to play at home and regain some form. The line
looks too close for comfort, so NO PLAY.
Richmond +24.5 vs Adelaide
1 at 1.93
?
Richmond are trying out more and more of
the kids are their eyes are firmly on the future. Adelaide take the
opportunity to try out a youngster against a Tiger team with no huge
incentive to win. Despite Adelaide's good record against Richmond, I
think the Tigers will put up a little more fight under Rawlings at an
"away" home game. Bet 1 unit on Rich +24.5.
Hawthorn +17.5 vs Bulldogs
2 at 1.92
?
The 'Dogs will miss Giansiracusa but are
still tracking very well. Hawthorn must be wondering how they can get
their season back on track, if at all. After several disappointments,
expect them to come back one of these weeks, so bet 2 units on Hawthorn
+17.5.
Sydney vs North Melbourne
NO PLAY
Sydney welcome back some experience, and
North continue their player rotation. Both teams put up reasonable
fights last week but fell short. On a sunny Sunday afternoon at the SCG,
Sydney could either destroy their opposition by a big margin, or play a
very close one. Take the safe option and NO PLAY.
St Kilda +11.5 vs Geelong
2 at 1.90
Very interesting situation. Both
teams are unbeaten this year, both in excellent form and almost at full
strength, both with wins against quality opposition. And yet the bookies
still put the Saints at 10.5 point underdogs at their favourite venue.
Bet 2 units on StK +10.5 or better (BEST BET)
Carlton -7.5 vs Fremantle
2 at 1.91
?
Both teams coming off big beatings last
week where they were expected to do a lot better. Some key losses to
Freo, and the axe comes in at Carlton. The Blues do well over there and
should come home strongly against a local team known for fading. Bet 2
units on Carlton -8.5 or better.
AFL ROUND THIRTEEN
Essendon +15.5 vs Carlton
2 at 1.90
+1.8
Carlton are coming off a good performance against the Saints (although a
loss is a loss), and will welcome back Thornton. Essendon will miss some
key players. Ratten is yet to beat Knights, so whatever the case, this
will probably be a close one. Bet 2 units on Ess +15.5
(BEST BET)
Fremantle +41.5 vs Collingwood
1 at 1.90
-1
Freo will be encouraged by last week's effort (although a loss is a
loss), but are really thinking about the future. In the past they have
matched up well against the 'Pies, although the venue will certainly
favour the home team. Still, the line is quite big, so I like Freo to
cover it. Bet 1 unit on Freo +40.5 or better
Adelaide vs Sydney
NO PLAY
Adelaide are really hitting their straps with four wins on the trot, and
while Sydney were looking good earlier, they have faltered in a big way
in recent weeks. I expect them to bounce back this week after a
disappointing finish last week against Collingwood, but the line looks
just a little too close to call. NO PLAY
Brisbane -43.5 vs Melbourne
2 at 2.00
+2
More kiddies on rotation at Melbourne, and another crushing defeat
looming against the in-form Lions at home. They continue to suffer heavy
losses, and while they might start well, they will eventually be
overcome in a big way. Bet 2 units on Bris -43.5
West Coast vs Hawthorn
NO PLAY
The Hawthorn line up is finally starting to look more like last year,
particularly with some key defensive players back, but it may be too
late to have a big impact. With a tough draw, this is a must-win to stay
in touch. West Coast will miss Cox and others. I like Hawthorn to cover
the line, but its a bit close with them playing away, so stay safe and
NO PLAY.
Geelong -47.5 vs Port Adelaide
2 at 1.93
-2
Geelong have covered big lines at home in all but one game this season,
and after relatively "poor" performances in the last two games in Perth,
will be happy to be back playing at Kardinia Park. Port have some big
outs and have had two weeks to mull over their mauling against the Dogs.
Expect Geelong to continue the pattern, and bet 2 units on Geel -47.5.
North Melbourne +36.5 vs Bulldogs
2 at 1.90
+1.8
Dogs are coming off three crushing wins in a row, are at full strength,
and have some important games against top teams coming up in the next
few weeks. North have a new coach, captain Harvey back, and will want to
put up a spirited performance. They probably have enough in them to
cover the line. Bet 2 units on North +35.5 or better.
St Kilda vs Richmond
NO PLAY
The Saints are at full strength and coasting toward the big showdown
next week. They always play well against Richmond, especially at Etihad.
While the young Tigers will want to impress, Rawlings' perfect coaching
record will take a hit this week, and this could easily blow out to
another big one. However, the line looks a little close to call, so NO
PLAY.
2009 RECORD
ROUND
RESULT
STAKES
ROI
BEST BET
13
+2.60
9
29%
12
+5.45
8
68%
11
-6.05
8
-76%
10
+1.76
6
29%
9
+2.54
9
28%
8
+1.67
8
21%
7
-6.00
6
-100%
6
-0.18
4
-5%
5
-0.02
4
0%
N/A
4
+1.80
8
23%
3
-2.12
6
-35%
N/A
2
+0.62
8
8%
1
-2.18
6
-36%
TOTAL
-0.11 units
90
0%
55%
PAST
RECORD
ROUND
RESULT
STAKES
ROI
BEST BET
2008
+25.31 units
169
15%
70%
2007
+54.74 units
246.5
22%
82%
RECORD
Click
here
to view our guru's full record since 2007.
Tiger Woods 3.25
Padraig Harrington 12.00
Sergio Garcia 15.00
Paul Casey 21.00
Phil Mickelson 23.00
Geoff Ogilvy 23.00
Rory Mcilroy 23.00
Ernie Els 26.00
Jim Furyk 29.00
Henrik Stenson 31.00
Anthony Kim 34.00
Vijay Singh 34.00
Ian Poulter 34.00
Lee Westwood 41.00
Justin Rose 41.00
Kenny Perry 41.00
Retief Goosen 41.00
Robert Karlsson 41.00
Andres Romero 41.00
Camilo Villegas 41.00
+1.8
-1
RECORD
