NBL BASKETBALL PREVIEWS/PLAYS
......... with OTP's hoops guru
Updated 8:18 AM AEST, Saturday 4 October
NBL - SATURDAY 4 OCTOBER
Dragons -3.5 vs Hawks
1 at 1.90
+0.9
Both of these teams had a game a few days ago
with the Hawks getting trounced in Perth and the Dragons getting an easy win
on the Gold Coast. The Hawks will need Franklin (5 points at 25% shooting)
to have a much better game than he did the other day to stay competitive
here. He will have some pesky defenders matching up on him in the likes of
Gibson and Carter. With both teams having the short turnaround I fancy
Goorjian ensuring that his troops don’t let up and get another road win
here.
Crocs -1.5 vs Wildcats
2 at 1.90
+1.8
After beating the Hawks on their home court 3
days ago, the Wildcats travel from one side of the country to the other to
take on the Crocs. Whilst the Wildcats have shown signs of putting it all
together, their two wins (both at home) have come against the Blaze and the
Hawks, two teams who do not travel too well on the road. The Crocs in front
of their home fans are a different kettle of fish and I like the chances of
Williams and co getting the job done here.
NBL - THURSDAY 2 OCTOBER
Breakers vs 36ers
NO PLAY
Two of the most offensive teams in the NBL
square off in New Zealand tonight. The Breakers have a team full of great
shooters who have the ability to share the ball and find the open man. To
have a chance at stealing the road win, the 36ers will have to slow the
tempo down and get big man Schenscher involved in the offence with hopes of
minimising the Breakers ability to push the ball up the court, which will
make it harder for them to get their open looks at the basket. There is
nothing in the betting for me here as I also expect a high scoring game.
Blaze to bt Dragons
1 at 2.60
-1
Blaze +4.5 vs Dragons
2 at 1.90
-2
Shane Heal and the Blaze host his former team,
the Dragons. Heal did not depart on the greatest of terms at the back end of
last season and will be fired up for a big game. The Blaze welcomes back
Whitehead to the lineup. The score lines of their last few games have been
misleading as the Blaze have shown plenty of signs of turning the corner.
Goorjian will get the Dragons fired up after their poor showing against
Townsville last week but I believe the Blaze are still value at home here.
NBL - WEDNESDAY 1 OCTOBER
Perth -10.5 vs Wollongong
1 at 1.95
+0.95
The Hawks return from an 11 day hiatus (you
have to love the NBL scheduling) to resume their season in one of the
toughest venues in Australia to play in, Perth. Meanwhile, the Wildcats
notched up their first win of the season, cruising past the Blaze by 14
points at home last Friday. Hinson is starting to look more and more
comfortable in his new surrounds, his ability to find the open man off his
dribble penetration will become more and more valuable as this season
progresses. I give the Wildcats a decent chance at covering the big start as
they seem to be finding their feet and the Hawks could very well come out
flat after such a long layoff against what is a much deeper side in the
Wildcats.
NBL - SATURDAY 27 SEPTEMBER
Adelaide -5.5 vs Sydney
2 at 1.90
-2
Under 209.5 points
1 at 1.85
-1
The nation’s capital plays host to these two
teams, who squared off 3 days ago. Adelaide, after reversing a 14 point
deficit at quarter time, prevailed by 10 points. I can’t see a different
result tonight. Sydney coach Beveridge, a Canberra native, will get his
troops ready to play. Adelaide outscored Sydney by 24 points across the last
3 quarters and in Maher’s 500th NBL game, I also expect them to come out
ready to play after falling behind early the other day. I also anticipate a
low scoring game. 2 units Adelaide -6.5 at $1.90 or better (TAB is -5.5); 1
unit under 207.5 at $1.90 or better (TAB is 209.5 at $1.85).
NBL - THURSDAY 25 SEPTEMBER
Tigers -2.5 vs Breakers
2 at 1.90
-2
This game marks the first time that Bruton and
Ere will face off against each other, after winning two titles together
(once at the Kings and once at the Bullets). Both players looked to have
settled into their new surrounds as Bruton directed the Breakers to their
round 1 victory and Ere top scored for the Tigers in both of their first
round wins. The key to this game will be who controls the perimeter better.
If the Tigers defensive coverage is not up to scratch, the Breakers have
more than enough weapons to shoot themselves to a victory here. I expect
that the Tigers will have enough defensive options to stem the outside
barrage and cover the small line. 2 units Tigers -2.5 at 1.90 or better
(Centrebet).
Crocodiles +10.5 vs Dragons
2 at 1.91
+1.82
Crocodiles to bt Dragons
1 at 5.30
+4.3
The Dragons come into this game on the back of
attaining a solid road win in Perth whilst the Crocs were plain and simply
horrendous against Adelaide. The Crocs will need a solid game on the
defensive end from Tovey as his matchup with the likes of either Ingles or
Darden look to be the main areas that Goorjian will try to exploit. Crocs
Coach Gleeson may try to counter this by employing a zone defence or even
try Rosell Ellis at the small forward position. The Crocs missed a lot of
open looks against Adelaide and given that they are professionals, I expect
them to shoot a lot better than 3 of 23 from behind the arc tonight. Gleeson
will have his troops ready to compete here. The win in Perth may have taken
a fair bit out of the Dragons and I expect a let up here. 2 units Crocodiles
+10.5 at 1.90 or better; 1 unit Crocodiles at 4.75 or better.
NBL - WEDNESDAY 24 SEPTEMBER
Adelaide -13.0 vs Sydney
1 at 1.90
-1
Adelaide showed that they will be a force to
be reckoned with this season after demolishing Townsville 109-82 at home
last week. The usual suspects in Ballinger and Maher did the damage. Bruce
and Tyndale looked to have settled into this league quite quickly after they
both produced solid first up efforts. Sydney lost both of their games in
round one by double digit margins. Defence once again looks to be their
problem, having conceded over 100 points in their first two matchups. I give
Adelaide a decent shot at covering the big line here. Sydney will play hard
and get their bigger guards to go at Maher with hopes that his offensive
production may be reduced. Even if they achieve this, Adelaide, in front of
their home fans, still look to have far too many weapons for Sydney to stay
with them for the whole 48 minutes. 1 unit Adelaide -13.0 at $1.90 or
better.
NBL - SUNDAY 21 SEPTEMBER
Dragons +5.5 vs Wildcats
2 at 1.90
+1.80
Dragons to bt Wildcats
1 at 2.90
+1.90
Dragons over 10.5
0.5 at 8.75
-0.5
The Dragons got the spoils at home on
Wednesday against the Wildcats in Connor Henry’s first game as an NBL head
coach. Now Henry’s men get a chance to spoil Brian Goorjian’s 700th NBL game
in charge in front of their home fans. The Wildcats will be without Captain
Paul Rogers for a further 6-8 weeks which definitely hurts them as their new
recruits still try to familiarise themselves with the Wildcat’s system.
Perth is as tough of a place as any to win an NBL game, the Dragons need to
seize this opportunity, because once Perth find their continuity, they will
not drop very many home games this season. It being Goorjian’s milestone
game makes me believe that his men will come out switched on and ready to
take the points. If their offence really clicks and the likes of Redhage
(who could be a little sluggish after his Olympic campaign) and Loughton
struggle like they did the other day, it could get ugly for the Wildcats.
2 units Dragons +5.5 at $1.90 or better (Sportingbet); 1 unit Dragons at
$2.90 or better (Sportingbet, Sportsbook, Centrebet); 0.5 unit Dragons over
10.5 at $8.50 or better.
NBL - SATURDAY 20 SEPTEMBER
Hawks vs Spirit
NO PLAY
Tragardh, who did not suit up against the
Breakers on Thursday, is questionable to take his place tonight. His absence
will make it tough for their frontline to contain the likes of Knight and
Khazzouh. However, the key matchup to this game will be Franklin against
Low. Whichever point guard gets the edge here will push their team a long
way towards winning the match. In front of his home crowd, I will have to
side with Franklin over the rookie. There is nothing in the betting for me
as I also expect a high scoring game.
NBL - FRIDAY 19 SEPTEMBER
Townsville +8.5 vs Adelaide
2 at 1.91
-2
Townsville to bt Adelaide
1 at 3.80
-1
Total Points over 201.5
1 at 1.91
-1
Adelaide are another team who have retooled in
the offseason, bringing in Schenscher (former NBA player), Bruce (Baylor –
NCAA), Holmes (Dragons), Winitana (Breakers), Hill (Dragons) and Kersten
(Breakers). They also replaced Hodge with Tyndale (Temple – NCAA). With the
returning Maher, Davidson and Ballinger, they will be a competitive side
this season. Townsville have also made some key additions. Hinder (Kings)
replaces Pepper which gives this team a much more mobile look. Williamson
(Bullets) and Tovey (Kings) will prove to be solid role players. Ellis will
make his third appearance for the club, returning from tearing his pectoral
muscle off the bone in round 2 last season. Townsville look like quite a bit
of value with the start and I also give them a shot at getting the points. I
expect a high scoring game from two up-tempo teams. 2 units Townsville +7.5
at $1.90 or better; 1 unit Townsville at $3.50 or better; 1 unit over 202.5
at $1.90 or better.
Gold Coast vs Cairns
NO PLAY
The Blaze have a very similar team to last
year, the only significant change being Crowe out and Heal in. Whitehead is
in doubt for this game with an ankle injury; his absence would really test
their depth if any of their frontcourt gets into early foul trouble. The
Taipans deserve to be slight favourites as they have the deeper team and the
Blaze are always tough to dethrone at home. So in what I expect to be a low
scoring game, I am going to sit this one out.
NBL - THURSDAY 18 SEPTEMBER
Breakers -9.5 vs Hawks
2 at 1.91
+1.82
The Breakers recruited a couple of former
Bullets in Bruton and Boucher. Rickert also returns after his season was cut
short due to a back injury. Tanner (Denver – NCAA) will be a rookie to keep
an eye on. They will miss Vukona but the likes of Rickert and Boucher should
be able to alleviate his absence to an extent. Saville returns to the Hawks
and they have also added Rychart (Bullets) who both make their frontline
look quite solid. Joining them in their likely starting 5 will be Franklin,
Campbell and Tragardh. The depth that they have off the bench, whilst it is
an improvement on last season, still looks a fair way behind that of the
rest of the competition (the Breakers included). I like the Breakers chances
of covering the start. The Hawks aim up ok in the frontline but they look to
be a class or two behind in the backcourt, especially as Campbell, one of
their better perimeter defenders, is carrying a groin complaint into the
game (it is tough enough keeping up with the likes of Bruton, Penney and
Jones when you are 100%). 2 units Breakers -9.5 at $1.90 or better.
NBL - WEDNESDAY 17 SEPTEMBER
Dragons -3.0 vs Wildcats
2 at 1.91
+1.82
Dragons vs Wildcats under 193.5
1 at 1.90
+0.90
A poor third quarter and a late technical foul
to Goorjian cost the Dragons against the Taipans last Saturday. They get a
chance to redeem themselves in front of their home fans tonight against the
Wildcats.
The Wildcats are another team who have
recruited heavily over the off-season. Imports Hinson (Razorbacks/Spirit)
and Victor (Kings), along with Knight (Slingers) and Weigh (Utah – NCAA),
will provide the likes of Redhage, Loughton, Crawford and Rogers (who is out
injured tonight) with plenty of support this season.
I like the Dragons chances of covering the
small line in front of their home fans. The absence of Rogers will hurt the
Wildcats as I feel that Victor and Knight may need a little more time to get
used to the offensive sets of their new team. The Dragons will have gotten
the nerves out of them on Saturday and will be fired up to get the win for
Goorjian in his official return to Melbourne as Coach of a Melbourne team. I
also expect a low scoring game from two defensive minded Coaches.
NBL - SUNDAY 14 SEPTEMBER
Spirit +13.5 vs Tigers
1 at 1.91
+0.91
The favourites for the wooden spoon and the
title respectively, square off in Sydney. The Spirit are one team that have
not recruited heavily over the off-season, bringing in the injured Smith
from the Kings and replacing their imports with Low, who had a solid year in
the NCAA last season and Gruber, a consistent performer in the SEABL (South
East Australian Basketball League).
The Tigers, not really needing to recruit
anyone to compete got amongst it anyway, bringing in Ere (Bullets), Grizzard
(Slingers) and Mackinnon (Bullets). Their team is incredibly stacked. One
thing that may hold them back early in the season is continuity as they have
not had all that much time together to gel as a squad and Barlow will need
some time to adjust to his new position of point guard.
I like the Spirit’s chances with the big
start as Tigers Coach Alan Westover will be trying out a bunch of different
combinations. The Spirit will apply their pressing defence to try and get
the likes of Barlow to turn the ball over. If Low’s shot starts falling, an
upset in front of their home crowd is not completely out of the question. As
this is his first official NBL game I will not be betting on the head to
head. 1 unit Spirit +13.5 at $1.90 or better.
NBL - SATURDAY 13 SEPTEMBER
Dragons +4.5 vs Taipans
2 at 1.91
-2
Dragons to bt Taipans
1 at 2.65
-1
The AFL and NRL finals are in full swing, so
this also means that the NBL is ‘launching’ their season. Once we look past
how poor the league markets itself, a competitive competition awaits as the
reduced number of teams has enabled most to upgrade their squads.
The Taipans have recruited what could very
well be their x-factor that they have been searching a long time for in
ex-tiger Dave Thomas. If Thomas, Black and Cattalini can all keep themselves
on the court they will be right in the mix come the end of the season.
The Dragons, winners of the wooden spoon
last season, have retooled in a big way. Their biggest signing actually
being Coach Brian Goorjian from the now defunct Kings. His ability to get
the most out of all of his players (whether they are good or average) along
with his winning record speaks for itself. He has plenty of talent to work
with here. Worthington (Kings), Gibson (Bullets), Vukona (Breakers) and
Carter (Razorbacks/Spirit) are all solid signings. With Groves, Ingles,
Horvath and Burston all returning, throw in new import Darden and Goorjian
has a very deep team to work with. I give them a great chance to get the
points here. 2 units Dragons +4.5 at 1.90 or better and 1 unit Dragons at
2.50 or better
+0.9
-1
PREMIER
LEAGUE 09
