NBL BASKETBALL PREVIEWS/PLAYS
......... with OTP's hoops guru
Updated 3:21 PM AEST, Wednesday 4 March
NBL - WEDNESDAY 4 MARCH
Dragons vs Tigers OVER 183.5
1 at 1.85
-1
As many people tipped at the start of the
year, we have both Melbourne teams contesting the NBL Championship. Game one
is at the Dragons home court where a decent crowd should be expected. How
involved the Dragons get Smith will go a long way towards deciding the
outcome of this game. The Dragons are deserving slight favourites, they have
a lot of good shooters and with the likes of Ere, Anstey and Barlow opposing
them, I expect a reasonably high scoring game here. 1 unit over 184.5 at
1.90 or better (TAB over 183.5 at 1.85 at time of writing)
NBL - THURSDAY 26 FEBRUARY
Crocs vs Dragons UNDER 194.0
1 at 1.90
+0.9
After blowing an early lead the other day in
Melbourne, the Crocs will be looking to even up the series at home tonight.
They are confident in doing so, if Smith wasn’t on the Dragons roster, I
would share their confidence. It will be interesting to see what they can do
to try and keep him quiet as I cannot come up with a sufficient answer. As
was the case in game one, I expect the Crocs to find points hard to come by
and depending on what the Crocs do defensively will determine the ease at
which the Dragons will get their points. The total still seems a touch too
high for me in any case. 1 unit under 193.5 at $1.90 or better.
NBL - WEDNESDAY 25 FEBRUARY
Breakers +7.5 vs Tigers
1.5 at 1.90
-1.5
Breakers to bt Tigers
0.5 at 3.80
-0.5
Melbourne is also the venue for tonight's semi
final as the Tigers host the Breakers. These two teams split their 4 games
during the season. Anstey is carrying a slight knee complaint into this game
and after watching the Breakers against the 36ers last week, Bruton looks
well and truly over his ankle problems and I give the Breakers a decent shot
in game one here. 1.5 units Breakers +7.5 at $1.90 or better 0.5 unit
Breakers at $3.70 or better.
NBL - TUESDAY 24 FEBRUARY
Crocs +10.0 vs Dragons
2 at 1.94
-2
Crocs to bt Dragons
1 at 5.30
-1
The Dragons return from a 10 day break to host
game one of this semi final series against the Crocs. These two teams have
played out four very close games during the season and I expect tonight to
be no different. Goorjian will have troops come out with a lot of intensity
and nobody will be more aware of this than two of his former players who
will be suiting up for the Crocs in Hinder and Tovey. These two guys along
with Coach Gleeson will ensure that the Queenslanders match the intensity of
the Dragons. I really like the Crocs chances with the big start and if just
one of their shooters gets going, well, we saw what happened last week…2
units Crocs +9.5 at $1.90 or better 1 unit Crocs at $4.50 or better
NBL - THURSDAY 19 FEBRUARY
Breakers -8.5 vs 36ers
1 at 1.93
+0.93
The Breakers host the 36ers, with the winner
progressing to the semi final series against the Tigers next week as the
loser starts to think about what might happen next season. Form against each
other during the season is completely irrelevant as key players were missing
in each matchup. If the 36ers keep faith in their half-court game and
continue feeding Schenscher in the post they could make a game of this. They
have not done this on a consistent basis all season and as old habits die
hard, I do not expect them to start now. 1 unit Breakers -9.0 at $1.90 or
better.
NBL - SATURDAY 14 FEBRUARY
Blaze -6.5 vs Hawks
1 at 1.91
+0.91
Shane Heal’s last ever NBL game takes place
against the Hawks on the Gold Coast tonight (I will be surprised if he
performs a Jordan or John Farnham act here). The Hawks beat the 36ers at
home last night in a game that would have been physically and mentally
draining for them. These two teams have played each other close during their
other 3 matchups over the year (2 of which the Blaze have won) but I expect
the Blaze to run away with it against a tired Hawks outfit.
Taipans +8.5 vs Dragons
1 at 1.95
+0.95
The Taipans are one of the few teams who have
experienced off-field difficulties this season and may actually live to
fight another day. They host the Dragons tonight. They got smashed in New
Zealand the other day but I believe they may have taken one foot off the
pedal with one eye being on tonight’s game. The Dragons in theory have
nothing to play for, in reality that is never the case for any Goorjian
coached team. I expect the Dragons to get a win here as the Taipans really
make them earn it.
Spirit vs Breakers
NO PLAY
The Spirit play what is most likely to be
their last ever NBL game as they host the Breakers. Whether or not a decent
crowd turns up to the game remains to be seen. One thing I am certain of is
that the Spirit will be very keen to finish off their year with a win. The
Breakers have nothing to play for as they are guaranteed no better or worse
than 4th place which is why I do not want to get involved in this game.
Wildcats vs Tigers
NO PLAY
The Wildcats will be seeking a home playoff
game next week as they host the Tigers tonight. Whilst the Tigers have
nothing to play for, I do expect them to show up (as they did against the
Crocs on TV the other day). I also expect Anstey to sit out again which did
not hurt them against the Crocs. They will find the Wildcats tougher to beat
without their centre though. I’m sitting this one out as the betting looks
about right to me.
NBL - FRIDAY 13 FEBRUARY
Hawks vs 36ers
NO PLAY
Tonight marks what could very well be the last
National Basketball League game in Wollongong as the Hawks host the 36ers.
The Hawks are out of the playoff race and the 36ers can finish no better
than sixth position. The 36ers, despite gaining nothing out of winning this
game, may use it as a way to gear up for a knockout game on the road next
week as they are terrible when playing away from home. I expect the Hawks at
home to prevail here but there is nothing in the betting for me.
NBL - THURSDAY 12 FEBRUARY
Breakers vs Taipans
NO PLAY
The Breakers will be looking to secure
themselves a home playoff game next week as they host the Taipans tonight.
They dropped both of their road games last round whilst the Taipans split
their away/home double. The line on this game looks a touch big to me.
However, when considering that both teams have a game in two days time (the
Breakers in Sydney and the Taipans at home); I will not be getting involved
here.
NBL - WEDNESDAY 11 FEBRUARY
Tigers -8.0 vs Crocs
2 at 1.90
+1.8
The final round of the season commences with
the Tigers hosting the Crocs. These two teams have split their season series
thus far, with the home team prevailing on each occasion. Robertson is out
for the Crocs which makes their already skinny backcourt borderline
anorexic. Standings wise the Tigers have nothing to play for but their Coach
has said that they want to stay sharp as they have what could be a 10 day
break coming up before their first playoff game and I expect them to
comfortably account for the Crocs at home tonight. 2 units Tiger -8.5 at
$1.90 or better (Centrebet -8.0 at $1.90 at time of writing).
NBL - FRIDAY 6 FEBRUARY
Hawks +3.0 vs Breakers
2 at 1.90
+1.8
Hawks to bt Breakers
1 at 2.41
+1.41
After the announcement that the Hawks do not
have the funds to apply for a licence in the NBL next year, the Wollongong
Entertainment Centre is sure to be a fortress tonight as they host the
Breakers. These two teams have played each other twice with the home side
winning comfortably each time. Penney is out for the Breakers which is a
massive loss. The Breakers (who also play in Adelaide tomorrow night) will
fight hard as they are jostling for playoff positions but I expect the home
team to have too much for them here. 2 units Hawks +3.0 at $1.90 or better;
1 unit Hawks at $2.25 or better.
Crocs vs Dragons UNDER 200.5
1 at 1.95
+0.95
After pummelling the 36ers at home 2 days ago,
the Dragons continue their quest for the minor premiership in Townsville
against the Crocs tonight. The Crocs took care of the Taipans at home last
round without any difficulty and will fancy their chances against the
Dragons, who they have defeated twice this season. Goorjian has stated in
the media that it is playoff time for his team and I will be shocked if the
Crocs don’t approach this game the same way, which leads me to believe a
grinding, low scoring game will take place. 1 unit under 200.5 at $1.90 or
better
NBL - FRIDAY 30 JANUARY
Hawks vs Tigers UNDER 203.5
1 at 1.93
-1
These two teams met at the same venue two
rounds ago, where the Tigers got a 14 point road victory. After getting
edged out by the Crocs at home last round, the Hawks will be keen to give
their fans something to cheer about. The Tigers, on a seven game winning
streak, should not have too much trouble in making it 8 in a row. Their
defence has been nothing short of impressive during this streak, which has
been accumulated over a very short period of time and I expect a low scoring
game tonight as a result. 1 unit under 203.5 at $1.90 or better
NBL - THURSDAY 29 JANUARY
Breakers to bt Dragons
1 at 1.82
-1
The fight for a top 2 finish continues as the
Breakers host the Dragons. These two teams have played each other twice with
the home team winning on each occasion. Last round the Breakers lost twice
to the Tigers whilst the Dragons were edged out by the same team on
Australia day. I feel the Breakers were unlucky to lose to the Dragons in
overtime when they last met in Melbourne and I like their chances of edging
ahead in the season series at home here.
NBL - WEDNESDAY 28 JANUARY
Perth to bt Spirit
2 at 1.84
+1.68
Perth 11+ vs Spirit
0.5 at 4.55
-0.5
Round 20 commences with the Spirit hosting the
Wildcats. These two sides have played each other twice this season with the
home team getting a comfortable victory on each occasion as the away side
was in the midst of a difficult part of their respective schedules. The
Wildcats struggled to douse the Blaze at home last week whilst the Spirit
lost in Cairns last round. With the Wildcats fighting for a home final and
Beveridge admitting that he is struggling to find ways of motivating his
troops, I expect the away side to get a relatively comfortable victory here.
2 units Perth $1.80 or better; 0.5 unit Perth 11+ $4.25 or better.
NBL - THURSDAY 22 JANUARY
Breakers to bt Tigers
2 at 1.91
-2
A needled up Bruton and his Breakers host the
resurgent Tigers in what promises to be a great contest. The Breakers took
care of the Crocs at home seven days ago whilst the Tigers swept through
their triple header last round. These two teams have played each other twice
(once in New Zealand and Melbourne, in rounds 2 and 8) where the Breakers
got the win on both occasions. After this game, these two sides will square
off for the last time in the regular season in Melbourne on Saturday. There
is very little between these two sides but with the Breakers being at home
and the Tigers in the midst of a very tough part of their schedule, I feel
the home side are value in the current market. 2 units Breakers $1.80 or
better.
NBL - WEDNESDAY 21 JANUARY
Blaze +13.5 vs 36ers
2 at 1.90
-2
Blaze to bt 36ers
1 at 8.00
-1
Round 19 commences in the city of churches as
the Blaze come into town with plans of spoiling the playoff aspirations of
the 36ers. These two teams have played each other three times this season
with the 2 previous games in Adelaide being split and the encounter on the
Gold Coast going to the 36ers. Melmeth is still out for the Blaze but Frank
is a chance of returning to give Whitehead and the rest of the Blaze
frontcourt some much needed help in containing the likes of Schenscher and
Ballinger. I like the Blaze’s chances with the big start and they have
plenty of offensive options that can get them a victory when one or two of
them are on song. 2 units Blaze +13.5 at $1.90 or better (TAB, Sportingbet,
Betchoice); 1 unit Blaze $8.00 or better (Sportingbet).
NBL - FRIDAY 16 JANUARY
36ers -4.5 vs Taipans
1 at 1.91
-1
After playing each other in Adelaide last
Saturday (where the home team got a comfortable victory), the Taipans and
the 36ers square off in Cairns tonight. The Taipans also won in Perth 7 days
ago and the 36ers beat the Hawks on national TV last round. Even though the
36ers are not the best road team, I feel that 6 days is not quite enough
time for the Taipans to work out how to contain Schenscher and turn around
such a resounding loss. 1 unit -5.0 at $1.90 or better
Blaze vs Tigers
NO PLAY
Gold Coast is the venue where the
injury-depleted Blaze hosts the Tigers. The Blaze got pummelled in
Townsville last round whilst the Tigers cruised to a home victory against a
sloppy Spirit side two days ago. Melmeth is a 50-50 chance of playing in
this game and the Blaze are pushing to get clearance from NBL officials to
allow Vanderjaght to play. If either of these two play, 9 points looks like
a good head start for the Blaze but until I am aware of their status I will
not be getting involved.
NBL - THURSDAY 15 JANUARY
Crocs/Breakers HF/FT Double
0.5 at 7.50
-0.5
The Breakers return home to take on the Crocs.
The Crocs won at home last round whilst the Breakers suffered an overtime
loss to the Dragons in Melbourne. These two teams have played each other
three times this season with the away side prevailing on each occasion. I
expect the Breakers, who have been slow starters at home all season, to get
the win with Williams and the Crocs really making them earn it.
NBL - WEDNESDAY 14 JANUARY
Tigers vs Spirit
NO PLAY
The first of two TV games this round sees the
re-tooled Tigers host the Spirit. After getting back their x-factor in
Thomas, the Tigers took care of a tired Wildcats team at home last Sunday.
The Spirit also took care of business at home last round as they edged out
the Hawks. The Spirit can stay competitive in this game if they can get the
edge in the frontcourt which I suspect may be a touch too hard for them
tonight with a rejuvenated Anstey and Thomas in the home team’s line-up.
NBL - SATURDAY 10 JANUARY
35ers vs Taipans
NO PLAY
The Taipans will be attempting to do what only
5 teams in NBL history have done, win both legs of the doomsday double,
after beating the Wildcats in Perth last night, the 36ers take them on in
the city of churches. The 36ers outlasted the Hawks at home on national TV
the other day. These two teams met at the same venue in round 8, where the
Taipans squeezed out a one point victory. Although the 36ers will be one
import down, I think the veterans on the Taipans side will be too tired to
stay with them as the 36ers look for some revenge.
Spirit -3.5 vs Hawks
2 at 1.90
+1.8
After putting on an impressive display in
Adelaide the other day, the Hawks are in Sydney to take on the Spirit in
Smith’s 400th NBL game. In their last start, the Spirit edged out the Bruton-less
Breakers last round. These two teams have played each other 3 times this
season where the home team prevailed on each occasion and I expect tonight’s
clash to be no different.
Dragons vs Breakers
NO PLAY
The Dragons host the Breakers in a top of the
table clash where both teams carry a two game losing streak into it. I
expect a keenly contested game as a result, where both teams will be looking
to keep some distance between them and the third placed Tigers. It was the
Breakers who got the win in the round 10 matchup in New Zealand but with
Bruton playing on a gimpy ankle, I expect the Dragons to square up the
season series here.
NBL - WEDNESDAY 7 JANUARY
36ers vs Hawks
NO PLAY
This weeks TV game sees the 36ers host the
Hawks. These two teams have played each other twice (round 5 and round 11),
with the home team getting the win on each occasion. Last round, the 36ers
lost on the Gold Coast and the Hawks won their away/home double. I expect
the Hawks, who will be without Davidson and Petrie, to find it tough to stay
with the 36ers tonight. I am sitting it out as the betting looks about
right.
NBL - FRIDAY 2 JANUARY
Breakers -3.5 vs Hawks
2 at 1.90
-2
After getting themselves a NYE victory in
Cairns, the Hawks host the Breakers. The Breakers last played in round 14
where they got themselves a home/away double. They lost Bruton during the
away clash against the Wildcats (they actually pulled away and got the win
after Bruton hurt his ankle). Fitchett, who has played for the Tall Blacks
in the past, will replace Bruton. Whilst this is a big hole to fill, Henare,
Jones and Fitchett are more than capable of lifting to ensure their team
stays on top of the NBL ladder. 2 units Breakers -3.5 at $1.90 or better
(TAB, if this disappears, -5.5 at $1.90 is one unit).
NBL - WEDNESDAY 31 DECEMBER
Taipans to bt Hawks
1 at 2.05
-1
2008 concludes with 3 games in Queensland, the
first being the Hawks taking on the Taipans. The Taipans were a part of
perhaps the ugliest NBL game of all time, when they got edged out at home to
the Tigers in round 14. The Hawks edged out the Spirit at home last round.
The Hawks got themselves a narrow 2 point victory when these two teams met
at the same venue in round 7. I expect the Taipans to exact some revenge on
the Hawks tonight. 1 unit Taipans at $2.00 or better.
Blaze +5.5 vs 36ers
2 at 1.94
+1.88
Blaze to bt 36ers
1 at 2.90
+1.9
The Blaze will be hoping to avoid their third
loss to the 36ers tonight. They got pummelled by the Blaze last round and
will need Bowen to stop feeling homesick and play to his capabilities. They
will also take on the 36ers (who beat the Tigers in Melbourne last round)
without Frank, which means that they will need a big game from a big man by
the name of Pero Cameron, who I believe is more than capable to help his
team to a win here. 2 units Blaze +5.5 at $1.90 or better; 1 unit Blaze at
$2.90 or better.
Crocs +5.5 vs Dragons
2 at 1.92
+1.84
Crocs to bt Dragons
1 at 2.95
+1.95
Crocs vs Dragons UNDER 199.5
1 at 1.96
-1
After getting one win from 2 tries against the
Dragons in Melbourne, the Crocs will be hoping to protect their home court
against them tonight. They got smashed in Perth last round and will be keen
to give a better account of themselves to wrap up 2008. The Dragons
comfortably beat the Blaze last round and will be eager to keep their
momentum rolling. The two games between these two teams in Melbourne were
close and grinding contests and I expect this one to be no different. 2
units Crocs +5.5 at $1.90 or better; 1 unit Crocs at $2.70 or better; 1 unit
under 199.5 at $1.90 or better.
NBL - SATURDAY 27 DECEMBER
Wildcats vs Crocs
NO PLAY
Two teams right in the mix for playoff spots
square off as the Wildcats host the Crocs. Both teams are coming off a loss
and would be keen to get back on track here. The Crocs will need big games
from the likes of Hinder and Ellis to have a chance against the bigger
frontcourt that the Wildcats have. I’m sitting this one out as there is
nothing in the betting for me.
Tigers -6.5 vs 36ers
1 at 1.90
-1
A potentially vital season series will get
decided tonight as the Tigers host the 36ers. It was the home teams who
prevailed in the earlier two meetings. The Tigers won their away/home double
last round whilst the 36ers edged out the Blaze at home. The 36ers are a
team on the improve, however, they still are not a very good road team and I
expect them to have a tough time of it here. 1 unit Tigers -6.5 at $1.90 or
better (TAB, Centrebet)
Spirit +5.0 vs Hawks
2 at 1.90
+1.8
Spirit to bt Hawks
1 at 2.75
-1
Round 15 wraps up with the Hawks hosting the
Spirit. Last round, the Hawks lost their road double and the Spirit split
their away/home double. The home teams won the two prior meetings between
these sides (Hawks in round 1, Spirit in round 6). Both teams will come out
hard but I expect the Spirit to have too much energy for the Hawks in the
end. 2 units Spirit +4.5 at $1.90 or better (Sportingbet +5.0 at $1.90 at
time of writing); 1 unit Spirit at $2.50 or better.
NBL - FRIDAY 26 DECEMBER
Dragons vs Blaze
NO PLAY
The Blaze visit Melbourne and take on the
Dragons. The Dragons edged out the Crocs at home last week whilst the Blaze
split their home/away double (who turned out to be unlucky in not winning
the game in Adelaide as well). The Dragons will be unveiling Smith, their
new import, who looks really athletic from what I have seen of him. The
Dragons are a much better side and with Goorjian ensuring that his troops
kept their Christmas snacks to a minimum, I expect them to easily account
for the Blaze here.
NBL - SUNDAY 21 DECEMBER
Crocs to bt Spirit
2 at 1.90
-2
Crocs 11+ vs Spirit
1 at 5.00
-1
Round 14 concludes with the Spirit hosting the
Crocs. The Spirit got demolished in New Zealand on Thursday whilst the Crocs
narrowly went down to the Dragons in Melbourne last night. I feel that the
difficulties of the past few weeks may be catching up with the Spirit and I
expect the Crocs, who may not get too many minutes out of Tovey, to get the
job done here. If one of their shooters knocks down their shots
consistently, it could get ugly for the Spirit. 2 units Crocs at $1.90 or
better; 0.5 unit Crocs 11+ at $5 or better.
NBL - THURSDAY 18 DECEMBER
Spirit +16.5 vs Breakers
2.5 at 1.85
-2.5
Spirit to bt Breakers
0.5 at 9.50
-0.5
Both of these teams are coming off a
long break in the schedule as they go head to head in New Zealand. The
Breakers were comfortably defeated on their home court by the Crocs in round
12 whilst the Spirit split their Queensland double in the same round. I give
the Spirit a decent chance with the big start and if they can get their
perimeter defence organized and their offence clicking, a road win is a
distinct possibility. 2.5 units Spirit +14.5 at $1.90 or better (TAB is
+16.5 at $1.85 at time of writing) 0.5 unit Spirit $7.00 or better
NBL - SATURDAY 13 DECEMBER
Wildcats -4.5 vs 36ers
1 at 1.90
+0.9
The struggling Wildcats host the resurgent
36ers out west. The Wildcats are currently on a 3 game slide, the most
recent defeat being a 32 point mauling on the Gold Coast last Sunday. Early
foul trouble and not taking care of the ball in the second half really hurt
them in that game. The 36ers belted the Crocs at home 3 days ago to notch up
their third win on the trot. They are still not a very good road team and
they have struggled this season with short turnarounds in their schedule. I
expect the Wildcats to get back on track here. 1 unit Wildcats -5.0 at $1.90
or better.
Tigers to bt Dragons
2 at 2.05
-2
Tigers vs Dragons UNDER 199.5
1 at 1.90
-1
Derby number 2 takes place at the Cage. In
round 5, the Dragons jumped out of the gates and got themselves a very
comfortable victory. In Adelaide last round, the Tigers started slowly and
ran out of time as they made a late push for a victory. The Dragons got
themselves two comfortable victories against the Hawks last week. In what I
expect to be a grinding type of game, I think the Tigers may be the more
desperate for the victory as they look to stay in touch with the top 2. 2
units Tigers at $2.00 or better; 1 unit under 199.5 at $1.90 or better.
Blaze vs Taipans
NO PLAY
The first matchup for the undermanned and
financially stricken Taipans after one of their tougher weeks is the Blaze
on the Gold Coast. They have beaten them twice this year but they also had 2
imports and their first choice point guard on deck in the round 1 and round
5 encounters. The Blaze most recently trounced the Wildcats at home and I
like their chances of getting back to back wins for the first time this
season.
Crocs vs Hawks UNDER 202.5
1 at 1.90
-1
The Crocs hosting the Hawks concludes round
13. It was the Crocs by 8 points when these two sides met at the same venue
in round 10. The Crocs were humbled in Adelaide on national TV the other day
and the Hawks lost two games to the Dragons last round. The line betting
looks about right to me. I give the unders a decent chance as I expect both
coaches to get their teams to key in defensively as both sides look to get
back in the winner’s circle. 1 unit under 202.5 at $1.90 or better
(Sportingbet, Racingodds).
NBL - WEDNESDAY 10 DECEMBER
36ers -5.5 vs Crocs
1 at 1.90
+0.9
36ers vs Crocs OVER 195.0
1 at 1.90
-1
The TV game for the round sees the 36ers host
the Crocs. Davidson only played 5 minutes in the 36ers win against the
Tigers on Saturday and will not play at all tonight. Hodge has been
restricted to light training since the win but is expected to be good to go
by tip-off. The Crocs had 2 impressive wins last week and are shooting the
ball very well. In this game where both teams have been playing well in the
lead up, I like the 36ers chances of covering the start in their first home
televised game of the season. I am expecting a high scoring game from 2
teams who have been shooting the ball well in recent times. 1 unit 36ers
-5.5 at $1.90 or better (Centrebet); 1 unit over 195.5 at $1.90 or better.
NBL - SUNDAY 7 DECEMBER
Blaze vs Wildcats
NO PLAY
Round 12 concludes with the Blaze hosting the
Wildcats. Both teams have lost their last 2 on the trot. Harvey is expected
to return for the Blaze which gives their backcourt a desperately needed
boost in what is McGregor’s 400th NBL game. I expect the Wildcats to have
too many options in the end as they grind out a road win in Crawford’s 300th
NBL game to keep themselves in the mix with the top 4.
NBL - SATURDAY 6 DECEMBER
Tigers -2.5 vs 36ers
2 at 1.91
-2
36ers vs Tigers OVER 202.5
1 at 1.85
-1
When these two teams met in round 4, the venue
was Melbourne, the 36ers had a different import and the result was a
comfortable victory to the Tigers. Tonight the venue is Adelaide, the 36ers
have a better import and the Tigers are without Mackinnon (which may
actually be a blessing in disguise). The 36ers edged out the Hawks at home
last week whilst the Tigers split their road double (the win achieved
without Mackinnon). Johnson (who had a short stint in the NCAA) gets a spot
on the bench and Hoare, a member of the team who is more familiar with the
Tigers’ offensive sets than others, moves into the starting five to cover
Mackinnon’s absence. I expect the Tigers to get the road win in what I
anticipate to be a high scoring game. 2 units Tigers -2.5 at $1.90 or
better, 1 unit over 202.5 at $1.90 or better.
Dragons vs Hawks
NO PLAY
The reverse fixture of the TV game from
Wednesday sees the Dragons host the Hawks. A 23-0 run to open the second
half went a long way towards the 34 point victory to the Dragons in
Wollongong. I expect the Hawks to look after the ball a bit better than they
did the other day and put in a better effort overall. I do not think that
this will be enough to prevent another relatively easy victory to the
Dragons as they look to carry some momentum into their big clash with the
Tigers next week.
Crocs vs Spirit
NO PLAY
Both of these teams will be hoping to make it
two wins this week as the Crocs host the Spirit. The Crocs won across the
ditch on Thursday whilst the Spirit won their fourth straight in Cairns last
night. It was the Crocs who got the spoils when these two teams met in round
6 and I think backing up may be too hard for the Spirit here. The betting
looks about right so I am sitting this one out.
NBL - FRIDAY 5 DECEMBER
Taipans -3.5 vs Spirit
1 at 1.95
-1
A team that is struggling against a team that
is struggling financially goes head to head as the Taipans host the Spirit.
The Taipans lost both of their games last week and will be without Thomas
for a while. The Spirit, playing for their lives, defeated the Dragons at
home last round. Their future for the rest of this season is officially
settled. With this in mind, it is hard to keep up the intensity that they
played with last week every game, especially for road games. I believe the
Taipans still have enough options in their front court to put an end to
their slide here. 1 unit Taipans -4.5 at $1.90 or better
NBL - THURSDAY 4 DECEMBER
Crocs +13.5 vs Breakers
1 at 1.90
+0.9
After beating them twice on their home court,
the Breakers host the Crocs. Both teams had two solid wins last round. The
last time the Crocs lost a game was against the Breakers in round 9. After
some lineup changes by Coach Gleeson, they have recently been playing a lot
better as a whole and I give them a decent chance with the big start. If
they could hit their free throws a road win across the ditch is not out of
the question. I am leaving the head to head betting alone though as this is
one area that they continue to struggle with. 1 unit Crocs +13.5 at $1.90 or
better (TAB)
NBL - WEDNESDAY 3 DECEMBER
Dragons -5.5 vs Hawks
1 at 1.93
+0.93
Hawks vs Dragons UNDER 200.0
1 at 1.90
+0.9
When these two teams met at the same venue in
round 3, it was the Dragons that got a comfortable road win. The Hawks
suffered a narrow defeat in Adelaide last week whilst the Dragons split
their home/away double last round (the loss coming in Sydney on Saturday).
With both sides losing their last game, I believe the key to tonight’s match
up will be which Coach can get their side better prepared and I have to side
with Goorjian and the road team in what I expect to be a low scoring game. 1
unit Dragons -5.5 at $1.90 or better; 1 unit Under 198.5 at $1.90 or better.
NBL - SATURDAY 29 NOVEMBER
36ers vs Hawks OVER 198.5
1 at 1.85
-1
Two of the most inconsistent teams in the
league square off as the 36ers host the Hawks. The 36ers lost 2 close games
last round whilst the Hawks were comfortably defeated by the Crocs in
Townsville. In their round 5 meeting in Wollongong, the Hawks overcame a
half time deficit to prevail by 10 points. The 36ers side that hits the
court tonight will be quite a different one to that clash. I expect a
relatively easy victory for the 36ers in front of their home fans in what I
also believe will be a high scoring game. 1 unit over 199.5 at $1.90 or
better (TAB is 198.5 at $1.85 at time of writing)
Spirit +11.5 vs Dragons
2 at 1.91
+1.82
Spirit to bt Dragons
1 at 5.20
+4.2
With their short term future now settled, the
Spirit hosts the Dragons tonight. The Spirit notched up a come from behind
victory at home against the 36ers last round. They will still be without
Rush and Martin but Smith has settled in quite well after his shoulder
surgery and Low seems to be getting better and better each game. The Dragons
pounded the under strength Taipans the other day. They also have one or two
injury concerns, none of which would significantly affect them as they do
have a very deep squad. The Spirit are going through tough times right now
but will take some solace from the fact that their short term future is
settled and it should also be noted that they have still been able to train
this week as usual. I give them a decent chance at getting the win here. 2
units Spirit +8.5 at $1.90 or better (TAB is +11.5 at $1.90 at time of
writing) 1 unit Spirit $4.50 or better (TAB $5.00 at time of writing)
Taipans vs Crocs
NO PLAY
Round 11 wraps up with a Queensland derby, the
Taipans against the Crocs (who beat the Tigers at home on Wednesday) in
Cairns. As mentioned above, the under strength Taipans capitulated against
the Dragons the other day. Mee and Thomas did not play and Grabau also
picked up an injury during the game. I have heard that Thomas will be the
only player not to take the court tonight. Until this is confirmed I will
not be getting involved here.
Wildcats vs Tigers
NO PLAY
Darwin is the venue for these two sides as the
Wildcats and Tigers take on each other. Both sides suffered road losses a
few days ago and will be keen to get back on track here. These two teams
match up quite well and like their round 4 meeting in Melbourne (which
resulted in a 5 point Wildcats victory) and almost every time these two
sides do battle, it will be a close game.
Breakers -7.0 vs Blaze
1 at 1.94
+0.94
The Blaze return from a two week hiatus and
play host to the Breakers (who defeated the Wildcats in New Zealand two days
ago). These sides met at the same venue in round 6 where the Breakers
notched a narrow 3 point victory (which was one week after defeating the
Blaze by 12 points on their home court). The Blaze will be without Harvey
for this contest which weakens their backcourt in a very big way. I like the
Breakers chances of covering the start against this Blaze side that do not
have their captain in their side.
NBL - THURSDAY 27 NOVEMBER
Wildcats +5.5 vs Breakers
2 at 1.85
-2
Wildcats to bt Breakers
1 at 2.85
-1
These two teams met at the same venue back in
round 7 where the Breakers notched a controversial victory across the ditch.
The Breakers comfortably accounted for the Dragons at home 7 days ago. The
Wildcats were also not troubled in their game against the Taipans last
round. If there is one team that is capable of keeping the likes of Bruton,
Penney and Jones relatively quiet it is the Wildcats. They also have enough
offensive firepower to get the road victory. 2 units Wildcats +5.5 at $1.90
or better (IAS, Racingodds), 1 unit Wildcats $2.80 or better (Centrebet
$2.90 at time of writing).
NBL - WEDNESDAY 26 NOVEMBER
Crocs vs Tigers
NO PLAY
Tonight is the Tigers turn to do the
incredibly tough North Queensland/Perth road trip (what the NBL was thinking
when they put together the draw for this season is beyond me) as they take
on the Crocs in the Swamp. The Crocs put an end to their losing streak last
Saturday as they defeated the Hawks at home. The Tigers scraped by the
Taipans by one point at home one week ago. Crosswell will not play for the
Tigers tonight which puts more pressure on Barlow as he continues to try and
play point guard. Another way of looking at Crosswell’s absence is that it
may put the ball in Ere’s hands a bit more (who has tormented the Crocs on
numerous occasions in recent times), which could be enough to repeat the
round 6 result between these two sides, a comfortable Tigers victory.
Dragons vs Taipans OVER 182.5
1 at 1.90
-1
These two teams have played each other twice
this season, with the home team winning on each occasion. Tonight the
Dragons play host. The Dragons split their road double last week and will be
without Groves tonight. The Taipans lost their 2 games last round and will
be keen to put an end to their slide down the table sooner rather than
later. The line betting looks about right here and I give the overs a decent
chance as the Taipans have been improving offensively and Goorjian has been
trying to get his troops a bit sharper in their offence. 1 unit over 182.0
at $1.90 or better (Centrebet, Racingodds)
NBL - SATURDAY 22 NOVEMBER
36ers vs Dragons OVER 194.5
1 at 1.95
+0.95
After blowing a double digit lead in Sydney
last night, the 36ers return home tonight to take on the Dragons, who got
outplayed in New Zealand on Thursday. Hodge had an impressive debut last
night and will be keen for another good showing in front of the 36ers
faithful. There is a chance that Maher may be rested for this game which
could effect their chances in a big way against a Dragons side looking to
right their wrongs from the other day. I will not be betting on the line
until I know whether or not he is playing. I expect a high scoring game
regardless of his status though. 1 unit over 196.5 at $1.90 or better.
Crocs -5.5 vs Hawks
1 at 1.91
+0.91
After both suffering home defeats last round,
these two teams will be keen to get their seasons back on track in
Townsville tonight. Despite finishing strong against the Breakers last week,
the Crocs came out sluggish and dug themselves too big of a hole. The Hawks
started strong against the Blaze, amassing a double digit lead in the first
half and wind up losing by a point in the end. I like the Crocs’ chances of
covering the line against a team that has improved quite a bit but are still
terrible on the road. 1 unit Crocs -5.5 at $1.90 or better.
Taipans/Wildcats HF/FT
0.5 at 6.50
-0.5
The Taipans, who have been gradually sliding
down the table despite playing some good basketball, host the Wildcats.
These two teams squared off out west last Saturday, with the Taipans blowing
a big lead to only get ran down in the fourth quarter. It was a similar
story for the Taipans in Melbourne 3 days ago, started strongly and finished
poorly. I do expect the Taipans to come out strong in front of their home
fans but I believe that fatigue may get the best of them in the end. 0.5
unit Taipans/Wildcats half/full at $6.00 or better (Sportingbet $6.50 at
time of writing)
NBL - FRIDAY 21 NOVEMBER
36ers -3.5 vs Spirit
2 at 1.94
-2
Spirit vs 36ers OVER 201.5
1 at 1.90
+0.9
These two teams have played each other 3 times
already this season, with the home team prevailing each time. Tonight the
Spirit will be looking to square up the ledger in front of their home fans.
They comfortably accounted for the Blaze at home last round but will have to
tackle the 36ers tonight without the services of Rush and Martin. Hodge
makes his season debut for the 36ers, who split their road double last week.
I expect his injection to be too much for the injury-hit Spirit and I am
also anticipating a high scoring game. 2 units 36ers -3.5 at 1.90 or better
(Pinnacle); 1 unit over 201.5 at $1.90 or better.
NBL - THURSDAY 20 NOVEMBER
Breakers -1.0 vs Dragons
2 at 1.90
+1.8
Top of the table clash here with the 2nd
placed Breakers hosting the Dragons. The Breakers won their road double last
week, running over the top of the Taipans and the Crocs. The Dragons
comfortably accounted for the 36ers at home last week, where their
opposition had a staggering 29 turnovers. They will not be afforded such a
luxury here. Goorjian does have a good record coaching in this venue but it
has never been against a Breakers side this good. 2 units Breakers -2.0 at
$1.90 or better
NBL - WEDNESDAY 19 NOVEMBER
Tigers vs Taipans
NO PLAY
The rough part of the schedule continues for
the Taipans with the cage in Melbourne being their stop for tonight, a venue
that has not been a happy hunting ground for them. They held big leads in
both of their games last week, only to come up short on both occasions. The
Tigers last game was eleven days ago where they were humbled by the Breakers
on their home court. They fell behind early in that game and ran out of time
to peg back the margin. I expect them to come out switched on tonight and to
repeat the round 3 result in Cairns, a comfortable victory.
2010 BRITISH OPEN
Tiger Woods 4.50
Lee Westwood 13.00
Phil Mickelson 15.00
P Harrington 17.00
Rory Mcilroy 17.00
Ernie Els 21.00
Ian Poulter 31.00
Adam Scott 34.00
Anthony Kim 34.00
Paul Casey 34.00
Martin Kaymer 34.00
Sergio Garcia 41.00
Jim Furyk 41.00
Geoff Ogilvy 41.00
Luke Donald 41.00
Retief Goosen 41.00
Hunter Mahan 41.00
Steve Stricker 41.00
Ross Fisher 41.00
G Mcdowell 41.00
-1
+0.9
OZ
'10 GOLF MAJORS
