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FROM
CENTREBET Centrebet
Capers
Posted 2:00 PM, April 4, 2002
| Rugby
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RUGBY LEAGUE
It was a good thing that the Northern Territory
laws prevented Centrebet from opening on Good Friday as we were
forced into taking a big position on the Good Friday clash between
the Roosters and Brisbane.
The Roosters had been backed from an opening $2.40 into $2.15,
with the two biggest bets being $10,000 at $2.30 and $20,000 at
$2.20. When Brad Fittler pulled out, Brisbane seemed "over
priced" at $1.55, but with the news of Fittler not playing
only becoming official late on Thursday, it meant we had little
time to balance the books. That meant we were looking for a
Broncos win, and things weren't looking too good when the Roosters
led 2-0 at half time and the Broncos were playing dumb football.
An ever increasing injury toll started to have an affect on the
Roosters in the second half as the Broncos got their act together
to win 22-8 with Chris Walker orchestrating two late tries.
A big plunge went astray on Saturday when Melbourne beat North
Qld 38-10. The Cowboys were backed from $6.50 into $3.75, with the
handicap moving 4 points into 10½ start. A Sydney punter backed
the Cowboys to win $20,000 at $5, as well as placing $15,000 on
them with 12½ points start. The loss meant that coach Murray
Hirst was again in the firing line and it was no surprise to learn
of his resignation four days later given rumours he was on a
do-or-die mission to Melbourne.
We also mentioned last week that every outsider had been
backed, and only one of those, Canberra, was able to win, and they
looked a little lucky to come away with the points in an error
ridden game. Bets totaling $18,000 came for Canberra when betting
opened, and we still saw money for them at $2.25 at kick-off. It
was similar plunge to the one on the Northern Eagles, who firmed
from $2.70 into $2.40, but in an inept display, Eagles fans were
never a hope as South's burned them 44-20. At the moment, the
Eagles are $2.25 to win the Wooden spoon, and with both North Qld
and Penrith strong chances to win this week, the Eagles might soon
find themselves odds on to run last.
There were two good betting contests for the round, the
Bulldogs v the Dragons, and the Warriors v Newcastle. Both matches
saw similar scores, and comprehensive wins for the favourites, but
while we lost on Newcastle's win, the result went our way in the
other match.
St George Illawarra were backed from $2.80 into $2.50 when
betting opened, and we also took bets of $10,000 and $5000 (twice)
for them with 5½ points start. After the previous four favourites
had won, the late money was for the Bulldogs, including one bet of
$20,000 at $1.50.
The Bulldogs looked very impressive in their 33-14 win over the
Dragons as did Newcastle, who defeated New Zealand 32-14. Both
winners were assisted by injuries to the other side, but that
happens! There was good push for New Zealand, mostly from smaller
punters happy to stick with the home side. One of our bigger
league punters went the other way placing $15,000 on the Knights
at -2½ points ($1.95), also investing $6000 on them to win by 13
points or more at $2.75.
The upcoming round doesn't look too inspiring on paper, and we
expect most interest will centre on the handicaps. Opening of
betting on Tuesday saw bets of $10,000 and $6000 for the Bulldogs
($1.33) to beat South's, $7000 for the Roosters ($1.28) to beat
the Eagles, and also $7000 for Wests ($2.80) to bounce back
against Penrith.
Melbourne will be without Matt Orford this week, and that has
prompted support for Parramatta to beat a 17 point handicap. Bets
of $10,000 and $6600 have gone on that option, and the other
"shortie" of the round, Newcastle, have also attracted a
$10,000 bet to say they will beat Canberra by more than 19½
points.
A battle weary New Zealand side go in as favourites at $1.55 to
beat North Qld. This probably surprised a few people judging by
close to $18,000 in bets which came for New Zealand when betting
on this match opened on Thursday, but the intense pressure put on
the Cowboys this week with Hurst's axing might be just enough to
inspire them to win their first game of the season.
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AUSTRALIAN RULES
Anyone who tipped the eight winners in the
opening round of AFL is a fair dinkum genius, and if you did, the
odds on an all up basis were 590/1. The two longest priced teams
of the round, the Kangaroos and Melbourne, both won, although
Melbourne were solidly backed late.
Even the most ardent of Kangaroos fans deserted them against
Port Adelaide and why wouldn't they? We only took a few small bets
for the 'Roos to win ($4.25) and also with a 30 point start. When
sides are as short as Port were ($1.20) it is rare to see big bets
for them, but one Victorian also took Port in a double with
Essendon with an outlay of $25,000, also taking a $5000 treble of
Essendon, Carlton and Port, and he is probably still trying to
work out how Essendon won!
Punters temporarily led when Richmond belted Collingwood on
Thursday night, but we hit the front when St Kilda upset Carlton.
We hadn't laid St Kilda, but when the media alerted all to the
fact that Lance Whitnall was out of the Carlton side, we saw a
splurge of activity for the Saints, who firmed from $2.90 into
$2.75.
Brisbane got out to $3 in the second quarter against Sydney,
but punters were reluctant to bet that last year's premiers could
give Sydney 5 goals start. The Lions showed why they are deserved
of premiership favourtism, going on to win 110-87.
Plenty of money was lost on the Bulldogs when Adelaide beat
them 112-93. The Bulldogs had already firmed into $1.85 from an
opening $1.90 when a rugby league punter came out of the blue and
placed $25,000 on them. It was an ordinary performance by the
Bulldogs, and it might be a while before we see that sort of money
for them again.
Monday's match was a good betting game which saw Melbourne
shorten dramatically. A Victorian punter led the charge with a
$5000 win bet at $4 as well as $9000 with 26 points start. The
Demons got as short as $3.25 at kick off, and those punters who
took the big odds would have been jubilant when they led by 44
points at half time. Hawthorn were $6 at half time, but when they
came back in the third quarter to kick nine unanswered goals,
Melbourne were back out to $3.25. The Demons put up some insipid
performances in the pre-season, but showed some true grit to
steady the ship, and come from behind to win by 26 points.
Punters have reacted to last week's results, ignoring both
Hawthorn ($11) and Port Adelaide ($9) in premiership bets this
week, but a world of warning! Of the last five premiership winning
sides, four of those only won one of their opening four matches,
so don't put the pen through your fancy just yet!
We noticed when this week's betting opened on Tuesday that
punters were exercising extreme caution in light of what happened
in round one.
The first side backed for this week has been Fremantle, who
play in the last match against St Kilda. A bet of $8000 from the
West, followed by another of $5000, was enough for us to shorten
the Dockers into $1.70 from $1.75. Late favourites always firm
anyway, so we want to see some early money for St Kilda before
getting too heavily involved.
Carlton have to be a good risk against Sydney on Saturday, even
at Optus oval the Swans did enough against Brisbane for us to pin
our faith in them this week, but although we have put Carlton up
at an attractive $1.75, the only decent bet we have been able to
find has been $7500. Even Port Adelaide punters have become
"gun shy" after last weeks shock loss. The $1.62 against
Melbourne this week has been very hard to sell, but having said
that there has been no sign of all those Melbourne supporters that
threw in for a big win last Monday.
It's still too early to panic, but nearly every player that has
been backed to win the Brownlow Medal had a "blinder" in
the opening round. Adelaide's Andrew McLeod was best afield
against the Bulldogs, and is now a clear $9 chance to win the
Brownlow. Several commentators have been saying for ages how good
Richmond's Brad Ottens is, and he was another who had backing
before round one at $26. We have halved his odds to $13, and I
have to admit he does look an ideal type to catch the umpires'
eye.
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RUGBY UNION
Five points was the biggest winning margin in
round six of Super 12 action, and the win by the Chiefs over the
Highlanders saw bookies come out well ahead. All three Australian
sides tasted defeat, but all three could quite easily have won.
The winning streak of the Waratahs came to an end in Albany on
Friday night. We actually won on this game as we thought that the
Blues could win, and the largest losing bet was from England, that
being £10,000 ($AUD28,000) on the Waratahs at $2.20.
The Reds firmed from $1.70 into $1.60 against the Hurricanes,
but the Kiwi side did land one winning bet of $12,000 at $2.15
before they eased to $2.25. Punters continue to pile onto the
Reds, but until league convert Wendall Sailor fits into the team
properly, the Queenslanders will always have problems offensively.
A client from NSW hit a rather large hurdle after he placed
$15,000 on the Hurricanes at $1.20 to beat the Chiefs. It's a very
dangerous caper taking such short odds, and they were never really
in the game, going down 29-24.
Sunday's match between title contenders the Crusaders and the
Brumbies created plenty of betting fireworks. Rumours of George
Gregan and Jeremy Paul being possible withdrawals for the Brumbies
saw some massive early support for the Crusaders, and we also took
money for the Brumbies as they drifted out. A South African punter
placed $25,000 on the Crusaders conceding 2½ points start at
$1.90, and we also took two big bets from New Zealand, one of
$15,000 the other $11,700, for a Crusaders win at $1.65. The juicy
odds available for the Brumbies ($2.25) was taken with three
individual bets of $8000, all from Australians.
That loss has seen the Brumbies now out to second picks to win
the Super 12, but the results meant both they and the Crusaders
shortened. The Brumbies are $2.40 behind the Crusaders at $2.25,
but we do now know that the Brumbies are more than capable of
beating the Crusaders in NZ, but can the Crusaders win in
Canberra?
One of the guys in our office joked that the first two hundred
dollars held on this week's round will look good sitting on a
local bar for us all to spend, and it is hard to argue with. A
Queensland punter was first in with $200 on the Bulls ($21) to
beat the Crusaders in Christchurch. His bet is standing out like a
beacon, as we have taken close to $12,000 for the Crusaders to
beat a 32 point handicap.
The Highlanders carry the hopes of punters into Friday night's
match against the Hurricanes. The $1.40 didn't appear "overs"
to us, but in early action we received bets of $8000 and $5000 to
win, and also $5000 and $3500 for the Highlanders at -8½ points.
The betting game of the round is in Durban when the Sharks host
the Blues. The Sharks were woeful over this side of the world, but
it will be different at home. We put the Sharks up at $2.20, and a
very smart South African punter placed $4000 at that quote. It's
never an easy assignment to "lay" sides traveling to
South Africa, and an even more difficult task for them to win over
there, but we have managed to find a few Kiwi's who have found the
$1.75 appealing.
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BASKETBALL
Second favourites Perth are out, and the Tigers
have beaten the Titans in their play-off series. What's happening
with Basketball? The Melbourne Tigers did us a couple of big
favours in their last two wins against the Titans. We took several
big bets for the Titans in game two which Melbourne won 107-105,
and then they lined up to take the -8½ in game 3! Because the NBL
finals series' matches are often played on odd days, and at odd
times, we invariably find the finals very quiet, but we did take
several wagers around the $2000 mark for the Titans to beat the
spread.
Of the seven first round finals, only one favourite covered the
handicap, and that is how unpredictable the season has been.
Last night's (Wed) first match of the semi final series between
Victoria and Adelaide saw a bet of $11,000 come for Victoria to
win at $1.30. In another shock, Adelaide beat the Vic’s by 9
points, and the odds on premiership favourites are now under a lot
of pressure.
Tonight (Thurs), Melbourne will be at home to West Sydney. The
Tigers are our favourite side at the moment, and they can do us
another favour tonight - by losing! The one big thing that points
towards a Melbourne win is West Sydney's abysmal record in
Melbourne since they joined the competition, but the Razorbacks
are choc full of confidence after winning in Perth although their
regular road season results weren't flash. Andrew Gaze and company
are a very popular side with punters, and this is one final where
they have "opened their shoulders". Just over $20,000
went on the Tigers in the 24 hours after betting opened, firming
from $1.80 into $1.70. We are pinning our hopes in West Sydney,
and think they can go all the way and win the title if they snare
a home grand final series because they are extremely tough to beat
at the Pig Pen.
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GOLF
Vijay Singh scored his first win in two years
when he waltzed away with the Houston Open, and in doing so
rewarded a few faithful followers. Two bets of $500 each way were
placed on Singh before the tournament at $16, and we also took
bets of $5000 and $4000 for Singh ($1.80) to beat David Toms in a
head to head.
Singh completely dominated in Houston, and since that win he
has been backed to win $30,000 in the US Masters ($21) and also to
win just over $25,000 in this week's Bellsouth Classic. Singh is
the $11 second favourite behind Phil Mickelson ($8), and in line
with recent events, we have laid a few "roughies".
Thomas Bjorn ($41), Stewart Cink ($41) and Kenny Perry ($41) have
each been backed to take out $20,000, and we have taken a few
small bets for defending champion Scott McCarron at $21. Australia
will be well represented, with the shortest of those being boom
youngster Adam Scott at $29.
Defending champion Philip Price is the $15 favourite to win the
Portuguese Open, but punters haven't really been inspired by the
average field assembled.
Anika Sorenstam, also defending champion, is the $2.50
favourite to win the Office Depot Championship in California this
week. There is no stopping the Swede at the moment, and we have
taken a bet of €2500 (from Sweden) for Sorenstam. Chief foe,
Karrie Webb, is the $5 second elect, but it seems as though for
the moment Aussie punters aren't prepared to back Webb against
Sorenstam who beat her in a play for the Ladies Masters in
February. Another Swede, Liselotte Neumann ($41) who looked likely
to win the Nabisco last week, has been backed to win $12,000 each
way, as has hey another popular Swede Sophie Gustafsson ($41).
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FORMULA ONE
Michael Schumacher's win in the Brazilian wasn't
the bad result we have become to accept when he wins. Juan Pablo
Montoya started punters elect at $2.50, and he was the one we
"stood" in the betting after he opened at $4. Montoya
and Schumacher were also matched up in a head to head. Montoya
opened at $2.50, which was snapped up with a $4000 wager from New
Zealand, and after the grid was decided, we got another $5000 bet
for Montoya at $1.85. Montoya seems to have a knack of being in
the wrong place at the wrong time, and another first lap
"altercations" with Ralf Schumacher no doubt cost
Montoya the race. Montoya has the car, but punters must be getting
tired of taking the short odds, only to see him always find
trouble. Schumacher is back into $1.30 to win the Drivers
Championship ahead of Montoya at $4.
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MOTORBIKES
The 500 cc's have been replaced by bigger bikes
this season, so we are expecting this week's Japanese Grand Prix
to be on the quiet side until punters (and bookies!) work out who
has the quicker bikes.
"Fearless" Valentino Rossi has been setting the
tracks alight under trial conditions, so we have installed him at
$1.80, but have only taken $3000 worth of bets at that price.
Daijiro Katoh is very much in the same mould as Rossi, and
although he will be riding in his first race in the big time, we
have installed him as second favourite at $9. Punters from Japan
are thinking along the same lines as us as we have taken a few
bets from that country for Katoh, and also the other
"local", Tohru Ukawa at $11. The ever reliable Max
Biaggi is well in the betting at $10, and Gary McCoy is rated a
$29 shot, but his well documented injuries have frightened punters
away.
It's not the same however in the Superbikes in South Africa.
Troy Bayliss has completely dominated the Series so far, winning
all four races, and although the Superbikes aren't an overly
popular betting medium, we have taken two bets, each of $2000, for
Bayliss to win both races at $1.50. Colin Edwards ($4.50) is the
only other rider wanted, with an English client placing $800 on
Edwards to win both races.
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CRICKET
Even though Australia continue to dominate South
Africa, punters have chosen to ignore that dominance and back
South Africa in each of their One Day encounters. Leading into
last night's (Wed) match, Australia led the Series 3-0 with one
tie, but Australian punters backed the Proteas from $2.25 into
$2.10. Some of the bigger bets were $8000 at $2.25 and $4000
(twice) at $2.20, and the only reason for that support could be
that they are working on the law of averages? South Africa must
win one sooner or later! It wasn’t to be this time though as
Australia only lost 2 wickets in their run chase, and won with 2
overs to spare.
Game six is due on Saturday, and the trend continues with a
$5000 bet for South Africa at $2.20. We have a handy lead on this
series, and it is nice to sit back and cheer on an Aussie win
without it costing anything.
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SOCCER
The Champions League is down to the business end
of things, and if the money being bet on these games is any
indication, the World Cup is going to be pretty big business for
Centrebet. On Tuesday, Deportivo La Coruna hosted Man United in
one of our most even betting contest ever. A Sydney punter placed
$10,000 on Deportivo to win the title at $7, and we were quite
surprised to see Man United all but destroy Deportivo's chances in
a 2-0 win.
We had the usual swag of United punters who took the $3.15 for
them to win, but we also took two bets, each to the value of
$20,000, for Deportivo at $2.20. The draws are always extremely
popular in these matches, and that option also saw a big bet of
€8000 ($AUD 16,000) at $3.
Real Madrid had some injury problems and eased from $2.75 out
to $3.05, but we didn't do too much damage when favourites Bayern
Munich won 2-1.
Wednesday's games saw a relatively quiet betting affair between
Panathinaikos and Barcelona, which was won by Panathinaikos 1-0,
whereas the match between Liverpool and Bayer Leverkusen was a
betting extravaganza. Leverkusen attracted three separate bets of
€2000, all from Germany, at $4.50, at $4.50, and also a €6000
bet that the total score would be under 2½ goals at $1.85. A new
punter from Malaysia placed $8000 on a draw at $3.20, also placing
$6000 on a draw at half time ($2.25), but rank and file punters
poured into Liverpool, who firmed from $1.80 into $1.70. The
largest bet was from a fan in England who got in early with a £10,000
bet at $1.80, and Liverpool fought out a hard earned 1-0 win.
Favourite punters got an early Easter bonus off Centrebet when
seven of the 10 favourites won on Friday and Saturday, but we
pegged them back when only four saluted on Easter Monday. Our
costliest results on Saturday were Bolton and Man United. Bolton
beat Villa 3-2, and landed a $16,000 winning bet from Singapore at
$2.35, and not happy with that collect, the same client won
$37,500 after placing $30,000 on Man United at $2.25. In a goal
scoring fest, United beat Leeds 4-3.
Of the four fav's that won on Monday, two did land big winning
bets. A $30,000 wager was placed on Fulham ($1.90) who defeated
Bolton 3-1, and Arsenal landed a 200,000 NOK ($AUD 40,000) bet at
$1.70 when they defeated Charlton 3-0. That win has seen Arsenal
shorten into $1.60 to win the title, and we took a timely bet of
$12,000 for Liverpool at $3.50 prior to Arsenals win. Liverpool
are back out to $4.20.
Two bets of $16,000 (from Hong Kong and Singapore) went astray
when Chelsea ($2.15) were held to a 0-0 draw by Ipswich, while
Fulham also had heavy backing, including one bet of €8000, at
$2.05 before West Ham beat them 1-0.
This weekend, we are hoping that West Ham's good recent form
comes to an abrupt halt. After opening at $2, West Ham are into
$1.85 on the back of a bet of $15,000 at $2 and $12,000 at $1.90.
Punters also have found the $1.90 appealing for Southampton to
beat Derby, with early bets of $6000 and $5500 coming at that
quote.
The World Cup is fast approaching, and next week we will have a
look at where the money is going there.
Until next week, good punting For further information contact
Gerard Daffy at Centrebet on 08 89555800 or on centrebet@centrebet.com
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