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FROM
CENTREBET Centrebet
Capers
Posted 2:45 PM, April 11, 2002
| Rugby
League |
Australian
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Soccer |
RUGBY LEAGUE
Parramatta will feature in our end of year
“chokes” after an insipid second half performance against
Melbourne. The Eels led 30-10 at half time, and the way they were
playing looked likely to put another 40 or 50 points on in the
second half. The $1.14 favourites came out after the big break and
failed to score in the second half, while Melbourne scored 22
points to hit the lead 2 minutes from the finish. Those who rushed
in and took the $3 Parramatta to win the title will be scratching
their heads, as would one Sydney punter who placed $45,500 on
Parramatta to win at $1.14. All the late money was for the Eels,
including two $10,000 bets at -19½ points ($1.90), but one Sydney
client did rate the Storm, placing $12,000 on them receiving 18
points start.
The Bulldogs scored an easy 32-6 win over South’s on Friday
night. The betting on this match was all one way, with the
Bulldogs firming into $1.25 on top of some pretty big bets.
New Zealand’s venture to North Qld was a “cakewalk” when
they embarrassed the Cowboys winning 50-20. Most of the early
money was for New Zealand, and this match saw two $20,000 bets
placed on the Kiwi’s at $1.50.
Handicap betting on the Newcastle v Canberra game was the
biggest turnover of the round. The first bet of $10,000 was for
Newcastle conceding 19½ points start at $1.90. We then moved the
line to 20, which sparked plenty of action. Three punters from
NSW, one of whom hit the headlines later in the week, placed a
total of $37,000 on the Raiders receiving the start. On the day of
the match, we continued to see money for the Raiders, but did also
take a $30,000 win bet for Newcastle ($1.12) as well as a $15,000
bet for them on the spread.
The Northern Eagles landed a winning bet, placed early in the
week, of $4500 at $3.50, but still gave us a big result as there
was any amount of support for the Roosters.
Unfortunately the big number of injuries to the Roosters has
turned this Friday night’s “match of the round” into a
fizzer. A few loyal supporters have taken the $4.50, but bets of
$15,000 and $12,000 have been placed on a rampant Newcastle at
$1.20. The -12½ points for the Knights has also been taken,
including bets of $6600 and $5000. The Roosters have been valiant
in defeat the past two weeks, but look like they will get a hiding
this week.
Canberra were shocking against Newcastle, but a couple of early
shoppers rate them highly against Brisbane this week. The Broncos
also have a big injury toll following last weeks heroic 2 point
victory over the Sharks, which meant one of our smarter league
clients jumped straight in with an $8000 wager for Canberra as
soon as we posted them at $2.75. Most disagree though, with the
Broncos attracting just on $11,000 worth of bets at $1.50.
Punters who had their fingers burnt on Parramatta last week
have come back again early in betting for the upcoming round. On
their first half performance against Melbourne, the $1.35 against
St George-Illawarra looks a “gift”, and we have taken one bet
of $25,000 for the Eels at $1.40.
Parramatta remain premiership favourites at $3.25, but the big
movers have been Newcastle, now into $3.75, and also the Bulldogs,
back into $8. As we suspected, this year is very even, and expect
to see significant changes to premiership betting each week. Now,
more than ever, injuries play an important part of finals betting.
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AUSTRALIAN RULES
While most favourites won last weekend, the
marbles fell the right way and we had a pretty good weekend on
Aussie Rules.
Punters plunged on two outsiders, Richmond and the Bulldogs,
and while Richmond never raised their backers hopes, the punters
who backed the Bulldogs from $2.35 into $1.90 would have had the
money spent when they raced to a 27 point lead in the last
quarter. We were facing a monster payout, but the gods were
smiling on us as the Kangaroos stormed home to win by 13 points.
The Kangaroos have now done the unthinkable and won both
matches, and if the interview with Anthony Stevens in last weeks
Melbourne Sun is a true reflection, the door may not be firmly
closed on disgraced ex captain Wayne Carey. Just to be on the safe
side, the Kangaroos are now only $23 to win the flag.
A bet of $17,500 on Carlton to beat Sydney was never in the
hunt when the Swans thrashed the Blues 111-33. Showing no
allegiance at all, the same client has come back this week and
placed $12,000 on Collingwood to beat Carlton at $1.80. We are not
so sure about this game. The fierce rivalry between these two
clubs always brings out the best in both, and with the Blues
copping plenty of flak this week, we are tipping them to beat
Collingwood.
The “blockbuster” in Brisbane between the Lions and
Essendon will have everybody glued to their televisions on
Saturday, and that has meant heavy betting on this one. Our AFL
analysts say that the Lions are good things to continue on their
winning way. We were very eager to “lay” the traveling side,
and got a bite of $4000 when the betting went up at $2.25, but
since then it has been a steady stream of support for the Lions at
$1.60. It looks certain that they will start shorter.
The other big interstate clash on Saturday will see Adelaide
and Sydney, both undefeated, clash at Footy Park. The Swans will
have Wayne Schwass back, but were thumped in the corresponding
match last year by 50 points. The Swans, however, are good
travelers, and with “big bad” Barry Hall kicking goals, we
think the Swans can win. Parochial South Australian’s disagree,
and in the first three days of betting, just under $32,000 has
gone on the Crows at $1.80.
South Australian’s have thrown in for a big weekend as we
have also taken a $10,000 bet for Port Adelaide to open their
winning account against St Kilda. Others have followed, but the
$1.42 will disappear if Robert Harvey fails a fitness test for St
Kilda.
As far as premiership betting in concerned, Port are back out
to the $13 they were when betting opened in September, but the
fans have dropped off. Brisbane and Essendon share favourtism at
$2.75, while Melbourne have snuck into the betting at $21. Geelong
are $3 favourites for the Wooden Spoon, with Carlton into $6.50.
James Hird is now the $8 favourite to win the Brownlow, but two
players, who have been backed, have firmed right up in betting.
Essendon youngster Damian Peverill, who was backed to take out
$30,000 at $151 is into $34, while the Kangaroos’ Brent Harvey
(backed to take out $24,000) has shortened from $51 into $21.
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RUGBY UNION
The 20-13win by the Sharks over the Blues, and
the Chiefs 36-25 victory over the Cats more than compensated for
two hard luck stories from early in the Super 12 round.
Punters piled on the Highlanders at -8½ points against the
Hurricanes in Dunedin on Friday night. Most of the money was from
New Zealand, including bets of $5000 (three times) and $3500, and
when the Highlanders hit the front 14-10 we looked safe, but then
the boys from Otago scored a late try, against the run of play, to
win 19-10.
Plenty of money was also won by punters when the Crusaders
defeated the Bulls 49-15, just getting past the line of 33 start.
$20,000 in bets was placed on the Crusaders at -32½, then we took
another “truckload” of money, including one bet of $15,000,
giving up 33½ points start, with those punters getting home by
half a point.
A South African punter who placed $4000on the Sharks gave us a
good lead when they beat the Blues in Durban. That bet was enough
of a clue to chase money for the Blues, and the win by the Sharks
was our best result of the season so far.
Armed with some confidence, we then took the Cats on against
the Chiefs. The biggest bet on this game was £10,000 ($AUD
28,000) for the Cats at +3½ ($1.90), and the Chiefs kept their
remote finals hopes alive with an 11 point win.
It’s do or die this week for the Waratahs and the Highlanders
at the Football Stadium on Saturday night. A loss by either would
put them in a precarious position as far as the finals go, so
it’s a big game. With the home ground advantage, the Waratahs
have to be favourites. We have listed them at $1.45, and haven’t
seen any support early, but as we have said before, the Saturday
favourites (televised) are always easy to lay on game day.
Highlander’s supporters have also been scarce apart from one bet
of $3000 at $2.70, and that bet came from South Africa.
The Stormers are getting 15 points start against the Crusaders
on Friday, and we reckon that s worth a punt! The Stormers showed
something like their true form against the Reds, and we hope they
can get inside that handicap. Most Kiwi’s have conceded the
start give, with one punter placing $15,000 at the -15½ points,
as well as $15,000 to win outright at $1.15. The same punter has
invested $12,000 on the Brumbies ($1.17) to beat the Hurricanes,
and we have also taken bets of $6000 and $4400 for the Brumbies to
beat a 13½ point spread against the Hurricanes.
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FORMULA ONE
Punters think this weeks Formula One Grand Prix
in San Marino is a race in two between Michael Schumacher and Juan
Pablo Montoya. We priced the German up at $2.65, and that was
quickly taken by our German clients.
Schumacher is now into $2.25, with Montoya out to $2.90, at
which price two English clients have placed €4000 ($AUD 7500)
between them on the enigmatic driver. Apart from these two, and a
sprinkling of interest in David Coulthard ($11) and Kimi Raikkonen
($15), there is absoloutely no interest at all in any other
driver. Some of the “bolters” have been backed to grab a
podium finish with Nick Heidfeld ($17), Jacque Villeneuve ($34)
and Giancarlo Fisichella ($51) all backed to take out in excess of
$20,000. Several of the “stragglers” have also been backed to
fail to finish. Some of these bets are $3000 on Jenson Button
($2.20), $3000 on Jarno Trulli ($1.85) and $55000 for Heinz Harold
Frentzon at $1.85. Michael Schumacher is also $1.90 favourite to
grab pole position, and there has been one bet of $5000 placed on
that option.
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MOTORBIKES
It’s starting to look like a waste of time
betting on the Superbikes as Aussie Troy Bayliss is just too good!
Bayliss won both races in South Africa to make it six from six for
the season. We took bets totaling $6000 for Bayliss to win each
race at $1.50, and fortunately Colin Edwards was the quickest in
qualifying again, which allowed us to lay him at $3.50. We are now
ready to concede that Bayliss’ form will frighten punters away
from betting against him, and he really does deserve to be long
odds on in the upcoming races.
The wet and greasy conditions in Suzuka saw a massive influx of
betting on last Sunday’s Japanese Grand Prix. It maybe a new
season, and bigger bikes, but the end result was the same as last
season when Valentino Rossi rode a patient race to win.
Rossi opened at $1.80 but was into $1.60 before Friday’s free
practice sessions. We couldn’t find a cracker for anyone to beat
Rossi until the vision from Japan showed rain in the lead-up
events. Loris Capirossi ($7-5), Max Biaggi ($9-7), Daijiro Katoh
($11-9) and Tohru Ukawa ($15-11) were all backed to take out close
to $25,000, while Kenny Roberts ($34) and Sete Gibernau ($67) were
each backed to take out in excess of $50,000. Sete Gibernau was
also backed to win $15,000 to occupy a place at $21 by a German
client, and he was desperately unlucky not to collect as he was
lying in third position but parted company from his bike with two
laps to go. What started out as a potential disaster if Rossi won
ended up being a more than handy result, with the placings of
Akira Ryo and Carlos Checa hardly attracting any place bets.
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GOLF
The biggest betting golf event of the year, the
US Masters, gets under way tonight (Thurs), and we are looking for
the recent spate of outsiders winning to continue. Tiger Woods,
our $3.50 favourite, is nowhere near as popular with punters as he
has been over the past three years, but his biggest fan in
Australia has stuck solid with a $20,000 wager when he touched
$3.75. A Sydney punter has backed second elect, Ernie Els, with a
$5000 each way bet at $12, while last weeks Bell South Classic
winner, and reigning champion, Retief Goosen, has been backed to
take out over $200,000 with us Goosens odds are now into $17 after
opening at $34. Others to attract heavy backing have been Phil
Mickelson ($10,000 each way at $14, and good luck to that
punter!), Vijay Singh ($3000 each way at $26), and $2500 to win on
David Toms at $31. Robert Allenby is the shortest of the Aussies
at $61, but “The Shark”, Greg Norman ($81) is the one that
most followers of the Aussie contingent have gone for.
Betting on whether or not there will be a hole in one has seen
one sided action for “no hole in one”. Only fourteen
“aces” have been scored at Augusta since 1936, but hole in
ones have been a regular occurrence on the PGA Tour recently. We
didn’t think that the $1.50 was any spoil, but a host of bets
totaling over $30,000 has forced that quote into $1.38.
Some very brave punters have placed nearly $30,000 on John Daly
to make the cut. The price is now into $1.65 after opening at $2,
and it was only 12 months ago that a similar amount was placed on
Daly to miss the cut. An absoloute fortune has been bet on players
to make or miss the cut, and in a positive sign, some players have
had money placed on both options, but that in itself is a rarity.
For those interested, the big money on those to make the cut
include Stuart Appleby ($2), Mark Calcavecchia ($1.80), Fred
Couples ($1.80) Brad Faxon ($1.70), Bernhard Langer ($1.70) and
Tom Lehman ($1.70). Those supported to have the weekend off
include Joe Durant ($1.60), Frank Lickliter ($1.75) Kirk Triplett
($1.65) and Lee Westwood ($1.80).
This morning (Thurs), we have continued to see bets roll in to
win the Masters, with a few larger ones arriving. A Queensland
punter has backed Greg Norman to win $200,000 at $81, Scott
McCarron ($51), also to win $200,000, and Mike Weir ($41) to win
$160,000. Looks like we are in for an exciting weekend!
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ENTERTAINMENT
Well, we have covered the Danish, Norwegian and
Swedish version of Big Brother, and now it’s Australia’s turn!
The whole country already has an opinion on who is likely to win
through, or who will be evicted first.
With very little form to go on, we opened betting up with Marty
the slight favourite at $8 along with “any intruder”. The
intruder’s option will always be in the betting as the public
vote the intruder on, so it only makes sense that if the public
vote you on, you have some hope of going all the way.
We had an interesting first 24 hours of betting. On Monday
night when the housemates were introduced to the public, the roar
of approval when Marty was introduced was deafening. Immediately a
Sydney client was on the phone placing $500 on Marty, and in the
ensuing 24 hours he was backed to win over $10,000, and was into
clear favourite at $5. The initial opinion of most was that Nathan
was “too loud and out there” (remember Sara-Maree?), but now
that we are a few days into the show, punters have also got behind
him and he is now into $6 second favourite. Betting on the first
eviction will be available on Friday, and we have noticed a
definite trend of more money coming for the males than the
females.
We have also tried to find some results of all the ”Big
Brothers” that have taken place overseas, and as yet have only
found two that have been won by women. The tip is that the
demographic of the audiences is normally made up mostly of women,
and that they vote for the men, so that explains why we have seen
plenty of support for the men and not the women. Betting on Big
Brother is like walking through a minefield, and very similar to
betting on elections. The biggest problem facing us is that those
that are punting are a pretty good cross section of the voting
public, so it makes sense that the most money goes on the most
popular picks of the public. The “battle of wits” with the
punting public will go on for three months, and from betting on
the Scandinavian versions of the same show, we can expect some
savage price fluctuations as the personalities of the housemates
evolve.
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SOCCER
Eight favourites from nine matches in Premier
League would normally be a recipe for disaster for Centrebet, but
in a spectacular betting round, we managed to come out slightly
ahead after Fulham drew 1-1 with Newcaslte.
Being the last match of the round, there were several big
multiples “alive” into Newcastle ($1.40), and as this was the
only major game on Monday, we also took several big “singles”
wagers, including a $25,000 bet at $1.40. Two bets to the value of
$10,000 were also placed on the goal total being over 2½ goals at
$1.80.
West Ham delivered a blow when 2-0 victors over Charlton. After
opening at $2, the Hammers were backed into $1.85. We were already
“standing” West Ham, and a last minute bet of $14,000 from
Malaysia at $1.85 was the last thing we needed. Luckily the same
client played on a few draws, placing $10,000 on draws in the
Middlesbrough v Aston Villa, Bolton v Ipswich, and also the
Southampton Derby match. All three matches went to the home sides.
The season is winding down, and with the FA Cup semi finals on
this weekend, there hasn’t been too much interest in the Premier
League. The only early bets of not have been $4000 on Derby at
$3.50 (to beat Newcastle) and also $4000 on a draw between
Tottenham and West Ham at $3.25. It’s a different matter with
the Cup semi’s however. Both favourites, Arsenal and Chelsea,
have been very easy to sell, with money arriving from Asia for
Chelsea. Punters from Hong Kong and Singapore placed just under
$25,000 on Chelsea to beat Fulham as soon as we posted them up at
$1.90, and then a couple came back and took $1.85. The quote now
on offer ($1.80) has stemmed the flow from that part of the world,
but now we are seeing public money come at that quote, and also
for Arsenal at the $1.65 to beat Middlesbrough.
You will notice some games not listed in Italy this week, and
that will become a common occurrence with most European
competitions over the next few weeks. With competitions decided,
and very little motivation for some teams to win, and the possible
rotation of players, we will keep out!
This week, Juventus need to beat AC Milan if they are to have
any hope of winning the Serie A title, and that has seen bets of
$9000 and $7500 for Juventus to beat Milan.
We will have to leave the World Cup betting until next week as
it’s time to go and watch Big Brother so as to do the form. Only
three months to go!!
Until next week, good punting For further information contact
Gerard Daffy at Centrebet on 08 89555800 or on centrebet@centrebet.com
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