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Aussie
Rules
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Centrebet
Capers
Round five of Rugby League was easily our busiest of this year so far, and the draw between Parramatta and the Dragons saw us come out on the right side of the ledger. As expected, Newcastle defeated the Roosters on Friday night, but again the Roosters were gallant in defeat. They had 15 of their squad out through injury, but surprisingly we still saw money for them. A Sydney punter placed a total of $8,000 on a Roosters win at $4.50 (before they got to $5) and also placed $25,000 (in two bets) on the Roosters receiving 15½ points start. When Luke Ricketson was given a week by the judiciary, punters went ballistic on Newcastle with bets of $16,000 and $12,000 coming for an outright win ($1.20) as well as close to $60,000 in bets coming at -15½ and -16½. Some punters just scraped in on this option following this winning margin of 16 points and we also took a late bet of $12,000 for the Roosters with the 16½ points start. The North Queensland Cowboys finally delivered in a much improved 30-18 win over Souths. We were getting tired of giving the Cowboys "one last chance", but all is forgiven as there was a late plunge on Souths. Two Sydney punters placed $43,500 between them on Souths to win at $1.75, with one of those placing $6,000 on Souths to win by 13 or more at $3.50. A Queenslander placed $9,000 on the game total exceeding 48½ points ($1.90), so we just got home there! Brisbane were again a shade disappointing when they came away from Canberra with the two points. We pointed out last week that there has been early support for the Raiders including $8,000 to win ($2.75) and $12,000 and $6,500 for them at +5½ points. Broncos fans then joined in with bets of $20,000 (-5½) and $14000 (-6½ ), while one landed a winning bet of $8,000 for Brisbane to win by less than 13 points at $3.25. Talk of the Northern Eagles being "Back" was quickly extinguished following their 68-10 thrashing by New Zealand. Punters still don't rate the Kiwis, but we do, and we were more than happy to take money for the Eagles with 16 points start. One client from New South Wales had three "bites" at the start, investing a total of $22,750 on the Eagles, and he would have felt sick watching the game as it was obvious right from the start that that they were going to get a hiding. A couple of late changes to the Parramatta side (again!) definitely worked in favour of St George - Illawarra. The Eels were one of the best backed sides for this round, and we did take a $25,000 wager for them as soon as betting opened at $1.40. They seemed like a pretty good risk with the changes, and in the hour leading up to the game, bets of $10,000 (three times) and $5,000 were put on the Eels conceding 7½ points start. In an enthralling tussle, the final score, a 20-20 draw, was a fitting result, but no help to those who backed Parramatta. The Bulldogs play a "home game" in Wellington, New Zealand, on Saturday night, against the Warriors. The "brains trust" in the Bulldogs camp are probably wishing that they hadn't given up their home ground as it now appears as though the Warriors hold all the aces. In what is shaping as a terrific betting game, we have laid both sides at $1.90, and the interest in the Kiwi side has definitely gained momentum this week. A lot of punters think that Melbourne
will beat the Dragons at Olympic Park on Saturday. Those two sides have
had some "blowout" wins over each other during the past two
years, and with Matt Orford likely to be back for Melbourne we have seen
just under $25,000 come for the Storm at $1.65 in early betting. Newcastle are our new title favourites
at $3.25 ahead of Parramatta at $3.40, with the two firmers this week
being the Bulldogs ($9 - $7) and New Zealand ($26 - $17). The "blockbuster" of the year
turned into a "fizzer" when Brisbane beat Essendon by 50
points, and that was with both Michael Voss and Jonathan Brown both
carrying injuries. Not surprisingly, Brisbane are now into $2.30 to win
back to back Premierships, and with all the talk of records being
broken, we have come up with two markets. Punters can bet on whether or
not Brisbane will break the record of 24 straight wins, or whether they
will go through the home and away season undefeated. We put the Lions up
at $1.80 to win their next five matches and break the sequence of 24
wins by the Bobby Davis Geelong side of the early 60's and the signs are
there that punters think that will happen. Brisbane face the Bulldogs
(H), West Coast (A), Geelong (H), Port (H) and Collingwood (A) to try
and break the record with the match against Port Adelaide the one likely
to decide the result. Six of the eight favourites won last weekend, as well as the well backed Carlton, but we managed to avoid a bad weekend. Carlton was a good result even though we took a $10,000 bet at $2 hours before the game started. We found plenty of takers for Collingwood at $1.80, including bets of $12,000 and another of $10,000 from a new client from NSW. On Saturday, punters went for Melbourne to upset Richmond. The Demons firmed from $2.10 into $1.95, but got very tired in the second half. We put our faith in Sydney, and paid a fine when Adelaide beat them on Saturday afternoon. The Crows 30 point victory saw two punters land winning bets of $20,000 at $1.90, and we are now beginning to see some money for them to win the flag at $17. The win by Geelong ($2.65) over the Kangaroos was costly for favourite backers who put the Kangaroos through multiple bets, but many came back on Sunday, coupling up all three favourites, and coming away with the cash. They were a little fortunate to collect as Hawthorn really struggled to hold out Fremantle, and there were also a couple of Victorians who thought the Dockers would be competitive. We took a $6,000 bet for Freo to win at $3.50, and also two $5,000 bets for them receiving 22 points start. Things are a little less subdued this week apart from Friday nights match. Normally Essendon playing any body on a Friday night would be seen as an easy way for punters to get a bank for this weekend, but Crows supporters actually think they can beat Essendon in Melbourne! Three separate bets of $1,000, and a host of smaller bets came for the Crows at the opening quote of $3.50, but we have taken two bets totaling $12,000 for Essendon at $1.30. Now that Port Adelaide have a win on the board, we have also found punters keen to take the short odds to beat Carlton, and also couple them up with other sides. Bets of $9,000 and $4,500 came as soon as the betting ($1.22) opened, as well as a treble coupled up with Essendon and Brisbane. This $10,000 wager at $1.78 came from a South Australian client. Fremantle get a good chance to win at home on Sunday when they play Richmond, and knowing how "hot and cold" Richmond are it seems like a good idea to bet against them this week. We posted the Tigers at $1.60 and found a $3,000 bet but that's about the extent of it at the moment. A knee injury to Nathan Burke has
forced us to bring St Kilda into favourites for the Wooden Spoon.
Geelongs with over the Kangaroos has given them some breathing space,
and we have "eased" them out to $4.50. St Kilda are $3, with
the Western Bulldogs, who have a horror draw over the next few weeks,
second elect at $4. All the talk after last weekends Super 12 was the shock loss by the ACT Brumbies. This was the second year in a row that the Hurricanes have upset the Brumbies, and that loss sets up a terrific encounter this Saturday night between the Brumbies and the Waratahs. It was conceded by most that the Brumbies ($1.17) would beat the Hurricanes. Bets of $12,000 and $4,500 went on at that quote, but the big money went on the handicap. A New Zealander placed $20,000 on the Brumbies at -14½ start, and a South African client made a rare appearance with Centrebet to also place $20,000 on the Brumbies conceding the start. They momentarily hit the front in the second half, but the Hurricanes can never be written off and came back to win 20-13. Kiwi punters were out in force to back the Highlanders on Saturday night, but they went away empty handed when the Waratahs scored a convincing 31-13 win. The +5½ ($1.90) was taken by two punters each from the South Island, with bets of $10,000 a piece, while another placed $4,500 on the Highlanders as well. There was money for the Waratahs, but nothing like what we expected. Another last minute try was costly for
Centrebet in the Reds v Bulls match. One bet of $6,000 (from South
Africa) and several bets around the $2,000 mark, were placed on the Reds
conceding 31½ points start. Deep into injury time, the Reds held a 29
point lead, but scored a try against the run of play. We are hoping that the Sharks can spring a surprise on the Crusaders in Durban. Good sides have been beaten first up in South Africa before, and the Crusaders had a tough match against the Stormers. Tuesday saw close to $20,000 in bets come for the Crusaders at $1.45, and that was followed by $15,000 in bets for them giving up 6½ points start. The match of the round, the Waratahs v Brumbies, is most important with the victor likely to host the loser in the upcoming Semi's. Plenty of confidence surrounds the NSW team as we have hardly had any takers for the Brumbies at $1.70, yet nearly $16,000 went on the Waratahs when betting opened at $2.10. A sellout crowd will ensure that the Waratahs have a big advantage in that arrear, but Jeremy Paul is back for the Brumbies and that might be enough to see them win. [Golf | GOLF] Tiger Woods bounced back to form at the right time to win the first Major for this year. We lost but it could have been a whole lot worse! Tiger landed a winning bet of $20,000 at $3.75 and $8,000 at $3.50, but Tigers form this year, or lack of it, saw plenty of money for most others in the betting. It didn't really matter who won in the finish as most of the names on the leaderboard had been backed for bundles. What we did find surprising was that coming into the last round, we thought that punters would rally behind Tiger Woods at $1.55, but it was defending champion Retief Goosen who attracted the money. We posted Goosen at $3.20, but a barrage of support saw that price cut to $3, at which price we took another bet of $8,800 from a Sydney client. Goosen was easily our worst result, and although a loser the win by Tiger wasn't as costly, and it also put paid to two bets of $10,000 that Tiger would fail to win a Major this year. Betting on to miss or make the cut saw massive betting, and in a very tight finish, we came out slightly ahead. The longer course made it all the more difficult to get a Hole in One, and those punters who backed "No Hole in One" from $1.50 into $1.33 never really came close to losing. An Asian client scooped the pool on our "Three Balls" market. He very bravely invested $250 on picking ten winners for the second round at the huge odds of 846/1.Nine of the picks went straight to the line, and he had Davis Love going for just over $210,000. Love, who was in a group with Brad Faxon and Nick Price, eventually tied with Faxon, which meant our golf enthusiast collected $105,770, a mighty fine performance! This week Ernie Eels and Phil Mickelson are the $10 equal favourites to win the World Com Classic in South Carolina. It's hard to know how these two, along with Sergio Garcia ($11) will go after having their hearts broken chasing Tiger Woods last week. Mickelson has been backed to take out $15,000 but interest is definitely down. Davis Love, a $17 chance has won this
event four times, in 1987, 1991, 1992 and 1998, and historians have been
taking the $17. A Victorian punter has backed both Rocco Mediate ($34)
and Scott Verplank ($41) to win $15,000 each way, and we have also laid
John Daly ($51) to take out $20,000. There are some big odds around for
defending champion Jose Coceres, and he looks good value at around the
$67 mark. Wollongong won the third final in
Townsville last year as big underdogs, and we are looking for West
Sydney to do the same in the deciding NBL Final against Adelaide on
Friday night. West Sydney were never in the match in the first final
before hanging on to beat Adelaide by 3 points in Sydney last Sunday.
This final match has already had nearly as much wagers on it as the
total of the first two, including bets of $9,000 for Adelaide to win at
$1.45 and close to $24,000 for the 36er's at -5½ points. Adelaide's
Willy Farley is the $2.65 favourite to score the most points in the
match. Farley is a popular figure with punters, and has scored 58 points
in the two finals so far. Will it be Turkan or Katrina who are shown the door first in the Aussie version of Big Brother? Voting from the housemates saw Katrina get 12 votes, easily ahead of Turkan (7) and Damian (6). Prior to the three being named, Turkan has been backed from $2.50 into $1.65, but with the "teary" Katrina grabbed the most votes, we installed her favourite at $1.70. Money has continued to come for Turkan, who is now the favourite at $1.65, but opinion polls point towards Katrina packing her bags and punters are reacting to that. It looks like Damian is safe for this week as he is out to $7 and there are no takers. Marty is now into $3.50 to take the major prize as punters become more impressed by his wholesome image and boyish innocence. Marty is a bad result for Centrebet, but surely he can upset a few in the coming months! Peter, who like Marty didn't get a vote on Mondays show, is now the second favourite at $5, and people are starting to pick up on the similarity between Peter and last years winner Ben. Punters continue to ignore the women, and with two already up for eviction, our "tip" that a male will be the eventual winner is looking spot on even at this early stage. The Gold Logie will be handed out on Sunday night, and Georgie Parker is our $1.25 favourite to be the winner. Melbourne Comedian Rove McManus has had backing and is into $3.25, and veteran actor John Wood also has admirers at $10. The betting would seem to suggest that Ada Nicodemou (Home and Away) and Libby Tanner from "All Saints" might have to wait for another year. Both are rated outsiders at $31. Betting is also available on a couple
of the other Logies on offer. All Saints is at $2.50 to get the Silver
Logie for the Most Popular Program, but we have seen backing for
"Home and Away" at $3. Erik Thompson (All Saints) is $2.50 to
get a Silver Logie as Best Actor, Rebecca Gibney (Halifax) is pushing
Georgie Parker for the Most Popular Actress award, and the AFL Footy
Show is a raging $1.05 favourites to again be the Most Popular Sports
Program. Ferrari dominated the San Marino Grand
Prix with Michael Schumacher scoring easily from team mate Rubens
Barrichello. The new Ferrari's have a bigger advantage over their rivals
than they did last season, which doesn't augur too well for the rest of
the year. Aussie Mark Webber finished in eleventh place, two laps behind the winner, but that was good enough to see one German punter win $6,000 after placing $10,000 on Webber to beat home Alex Yoong. Michael Schumacher is now into $1.14 to
win the Drivers Championship, and expect to see short odds for him to
win any Grand Prix for the rest of the Season. It didn't take too long for punters to hop into the $1.50 for Valentino Rossi to win the South African Moto Grand Prix on Sunday. After opening at $1.50, several bets, including a bet of $8,000 from Singapore, forced the price into $1.40. We have taken a few small bets for Max Biaggi at $9, and also a few for Carlos Checa at $17, but it seems as though punters have conceded that Rossi will continue his dominance that he displayed last season. Checa has had a $2,000 bet placed on
him to finish on the podium at $4.50, and Tohru Ukawa has been backed to
take out $15,000 at $6 to also finish in the placings. The two FA Cup Semi Finals went to both heavily backed favourites last Sunday. Chelsea started at $1.70 landing a $25,000 winning bet at $1.90 and another $22,000 at $1.80. Arsenal firmed from $1.65 into $1.50 and the "Gunners" also landed several big wagers they were also coupled up with Chelsea in a $20,000 double at $2.88. Arsenal are now the $1.55 favourites to win the Cup, with Chelsea at $2.30. Betting on the Premier League was down due to only six matches being on and although only three favourites won, we came off second best as a result of Liverpool's 1 - 0 win over Sunderland. All the bigger bets for the round were on Liverpool at $1.70, but we did gain some respite when Tottenham ($1.90) were held to a 0 - 0 draw by West Ham. Punters have taken a "set" against Man United this weekend as some big bets have come for Chelsea to beat them. The $2.90 Chelsea has been taken with two bets of $10,000, both from England, and another bet of $7,500 has gone on at $2.80. Bolton, at home to Tottenham, have attracted two $8,000 bets (one from England, the other Australia) at $2.25, while $4,000 wagers have been placed on the draw options in the Southampton v Everton matches ($3.20) and West Ham v Sunderland ($3.35). That's it for this week. Until next week, good punting
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