It has
truly been a mad, mad month. With media coverage and water cooler chat
focused on both the war in Iraq (and rightly so) and the outbreak of
SARS, I think March Madness provided a much-needed dose of
old-fashioned entertainment. It was so nice to have an alternative to
both the news and the spate of awful reality TV shows that it makes me
want to scream “Thank God for college basketball!”
With
the war and the tournament starting so close together a few weeks
back, there was a definite impact on our industry, but maybe not in
the way you might think. Yes, sign-ups were slower than we would have
hoped the first day or so of the tourney, but by the end of the first
weekend of play it was clear that college hoops were to be the main
diversion for those wanting relief from the stress of the world around
them and sign-ups jumped significantly. In total, we had nearly 100%
more sign-ups this March than we did last year and by last weekend the
pace was accelerated to the point where we signed up three times as
many people this year during the three days of the Final Four as we
did last year.
From a
bookmaker’s perspective, the first weekend is a blur. Each game has
the magnitude of a Sunday afternoon NFL game (not quite to Sunday
Night or Monday Night Football levels) and because the start times
overlap and change, it keeps you on your toes. After the first
weekend, there is some breathing room and even though the games from
the Sweet Sixteen on are of a much larger magnitude dollar-wise, it is
far more manageable as there are no more than 4 games any night.
The
first day (Thursday the 20th) got off to a quiet start with the first
3 games all fairly square in terms of action. The Cal/NC State game
provided an exciting finish and players did have a little success with
Gonzaga over Cincinnati. Then came a little heartbreak for the House.
Players had bet moderately heavy on UConn over BYU and the line had
ranged from –4.5 to –5.5, so when Travis Hansen made a meaningless
lay-up with 1 second left to get the score to UConn by 5, it dampened
our spirits a little as we were paying all the way around. Players
also had success with Arizona over Vermont and Central Michigan over
Creighton. Central Michigan got a lot of play because it became well
publicized that they had been a Division I best 19-6 ATS before the
tourney. Weber St. was close at 19-7-1 ATS so they got a lot of play
also, which allowed us to exact some revenge when they lost to
Wisconsin. Best game of the day for the books was the last one with
#13-seed Tulsa upsetting Dayton. Day 1 started slow but built rapidly
and ended being a good one for the books.
The
action on Day 2 was much more evenly balanced. The only real big
decision we had was Purdue/LSU and it went in our favor. A few small
wins each way but we were happy to celebrate our successes from Day 1
and collect the vig for the day. There were lots of close games in the
first 2 days (9 finished within 3-points) and a few upsets but nothing
too spectacular with 15 of the top 16 moving on. I think bettors have
gotten more sophisticated in the last year as we saw noticeably more
action on the underdogs then we ever have before, especially at this
early stage in the tourney.
Day 3
(Saturday the 22nd) was a great day to watch, as there were a couple
of fantastic finishes. Just ask any Wisconsin fan! It also proved to
be one of our very best for the entire tourney (with the House winning
its four biggest decisions on Notre Dame (upset Illinois), Gonzaga
(covered against Arizona in one of the best games of the whole
tourney), Tulsa (covered against Wisconsin) and with Duke over
previously-mentioned Central Michigan. The Chippewas had been a real
favorite of our players and with early losses they were chasing heavy
with Central Michigan and the points. Duke’s 26-point win probably cut
the sale of Tum’s and heart medication in Costa Rica by half. Players
had some success with small wins on UConn and Oklahoma but the day
clearly belonged to the books.
Day 4
was the player’s turn, even though no game finished within 6-points.
Bettors got everything back, and more, from the Duke win and a big hit
on Syracuse over Oklahoma State. Players also did very well with
Pittsburgh and Texas. The lone bright spots for the House were the
upset of 2-seeds Wake Forest (by Auburn) and Florida (by Michigan
State). The betting public had picked a good day to back the
favorites.
Handle
for the first weekend was up significantly (130%) over the previous
year and it was my feeling that any effect the war may have had was
long gone by Saturday. I will admit that I was feeling good about my
bracket in the office pool after Friday (I was in first at that point)
but by the end of Sunday it was in the garbage as I had Florida to
advance out of the South and Illinois to upset Arizona in the West.
Oops… next year, I tell you, next year.
The
Sweet Sixteen got off to a good start for the book on March 27th with
Wisconsin staying close enough to Kentucky to cover. Bettors had their
turn with Arizona over Notre Dame but lost when Marquette upset
Pittsburgh. The last game of the day also went the players’ way when
Duke missed a couple of shots in the last 10 seconds and lost 69-65 to
Kansas with a spread that had gone from –3 to –4. The increase in
sales in Tum’s and heart medication that night probably made up for
previous slumps.
Friday,
March 28th got off to a bad start when Oklahoma pounded 12-seed Butler
and when Texas beat UConn by 4 on a spread that moved from –2.5 to –4
(I am sure more than a few bookies were cheering for TJ Ford to miss
both his free-throws in the dying seconds). The late games went the
book’s way. First, Auburn made up 5-points in the last 39 seconds and
covered against Syracuse. Then Paul Davis made a jumper with 6-seconds
left and Michigan State upset Maryland 60-58 to give the book another
big win. Just a handful of shots could have drastically altered the
results for bettors and books on this day!
I
mentioned earlier that I was surprised at the amount of underdog
betting in this tournament. This was evident with the
Marquette/Kentucky game that tipped off the Elite 8. I really expected
Kentucky action as they had been bet heavy in their previous game and
had garnered the lion’s share of action in Futures. Perhaps we
over-compensated and had the line too high but, whatever the reason,
players were actually slightly on Marquette and so their shocking
83-69 upset actually hurt us. The pain faded fast as the Kansas upset
of Arizona proved to be the biggest win for us in the entire tourney.
Kansas led 31-15 and we were feeling great but by Halftime it was just
38-35 after Arizona’s 13-0 run to end the half. Then Kansas came out
hot and got up to a 56-42 lead. Again, we felt confident but then
Arizona stormed back to take the lead 57-56 with 10:32 to go. What a
game! The last 10 minutes was truly great basketball and having a big
decision at stake made it that much more exciting. I’m glad Gardner
missed both 3-pointers because I don’t think we all would have
survived Overtime.
The
pair of games on Sunday the 30th weren’t nearly as exciting. We were
evenly balanced on the Syracuse/Oklahoma game and only watched
half-heartedly as Syracuse racked up an easy 63-47 win. The late game
saw all the action on Texas and although Michigan State turned in a
gutsy performance and got to within 6 with a minute or so to play, it
was never really as exciting as the late game the previous day. The
86-76 Texas win was our biggest loss of the tourney and for the second
week in a row bettors had bounced back from a bad Saturday with a
strong Sunday.
The
Final Four turned out to be a little anti-climactic in my humble
opinion. Our handle and sign-ups were tremendous with nearly triple
the sign-ups and 2.5 times the handle of last year but the games
themselves were lopsided and the action was so balanced we really had
no one to cheer for. It was almost comical; we strive so hard to get
balanced action and then we were confused and bored when it happened
that way. We normally have a clear team to cheer for but it didn’t
really matter who won these games. For the record, players came out
slightly ahead on Kansas (94-61 over Marquette) and we came out
slightly ahead on Syracuse (95-84 over Texas).
The
final game was a bit of a seesaw in terms of wagering. Very early
action was on Syracuse but by mid-Monday the betting was heavy on
Kansas. There was a late spurt of betting on Syracuse, particularly on
the moneyline and a little rush to the Over. It all ended with an
81-78 Syracuse win and us losing $55 on straight bets for the game.
Can you imagine the thousands of players, tens of thousands in bets
and hundreds of thousands in wagers to have just $55 change hands?!
Amazing. However, we did have a moderately successful night thanks to
a strange pattern of first and second half wagering. Bettors loaded up
on Kansas in the first half (-3) so books cashed with the 53-42
Halftime lead for Syracuse. I kind of expected more of the same in the
second half but bettors came out on Syracuse +7 in droves. The 36-28
Kansas rally in the second half completed the sweep and helped make
for a profitable day. Bettors had done well on parlays as there seemed
to be a heavy dose of Syracuse and the Over but the spread was just
enough out of Teaser range to tip the exotics in our favor.
In all,
it was a great tournament with some great games. For the book it was a
success (we took more action on college basketball in March than we
did on NFL and college football combined in December!).
I look
forward to seeing Carmelo Anthony in the NBA, I look forward to the
war in Iraq being over so our troops can come home soon and I look
forward to next March. Hopefully the world will be a little more
secure and the college tourney won’t have to carry the burden of
providing relief quite as much, but it’s nice to know it can if called
upon.
I’ll be
back in a couple of weeks with the first of a few columns on baseball.
I
always welcome comments, questions and suggestions via email at
rob@bodog.com
Rob Gillespie
President
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