All right,
enough about hoops - lets talk baseball. Hard to believe we are
already three weeks into another season. I am a big baseball fan so I
will be writing about it a fair amount this summer so here is a primer
to get us started.
As a
bettor, why is baseball so good? First off, it’s on every day. Not
just nights like basketball and hockey, but they play games in the
middle of the day. I always loved getting calls from guys with office
jobs that were betting on daytime games. I can imagine them sitting in
their cubicle watching an online web-cast or listening to the radio
through their headphones. There is nothing better than a Wednesday
afternoon baseball game to take the edge off a stressful week.
Secondly, where else can you bet with such a low vig? The dime line in
baseball has to be the best deal in all of sports wagering. With the
house take in the 1-2% range, rather than the 4-5% range of other
sports, baseball moneylines offer a lot of value.
Third,
not only do you get the best value when betting, but you also get to
impose conditions on your wagers. When you bet on football, your bet
goes even if the starting QB for your team breaks an ankle in practice
and when betting basketball, you can’t get your money back if the
starting point guard gets food poisoning an hour before tip-off. Look
at tonight’s NBA game where Shaq is questionable because he is away
for a funeral and may or may not play. Wouldn’t it be great if you
could place a Lakers bet that is conditional on him starting? Or a
Minnesota bet that is conditional on him not entering the game? Of
course it would, but that is not an option for basketball…yet.
So why
do you get lower juice for baseball and the opportunity to specify
which pitchers must start for your moneyline bet to have action?
Simple, summer is traditionally a quiet time in this industry and
sportsbooks want your business so they make baseball as attractive as
possible. I think competition in the sportsbook business will
eventually make these conditions show very soon in other sports. We
tried Listed Goalies on NHL totals in the playoffs last season and
even though it met with little success we showed it could be done. If
demand for such a product grows we may bring it back in the future.
Okay.
I’ve layed out a few reasons why I think baseball is a great sport for
bettors. I didn’t even mention the sheer number of games. The baseball
regular season has nearly 10 times as many games as the NFL (2430 to
256) and is roughly double the number for the NHL or the NBA. All
those extra games are extra betting opportunities. Now, let’s discuss
how to start looking for good betting opportunities.
I
happened to be in Las Vegas at the end of the 2001 baseball regular
season and was talking to Big Al McMordie about baseball. He had just
finished #1 for the season at a major monitoring site and was kind
enough to indulge a little bit. “I believe baseball is no different
than basketball or football. Each sport offers the opportunity to make
money if 1) you have a methodology that wins; and 2) you have the
discipline to follow that methodology.”
Now,
lets get a book manager’s opinion. BoDog’s top guy, Kent, states that
it starts with pitching. “The pitchers are the only individuals
involved in every play so you have to make them the biggest factor in
determining a game’s line. Barry Bonds might be involved in just four
at-bats and a couple of plays in the field but Randy Johnson pitches
to as many as 40 guys in a single game. It’s easy to see where to
start the research.” This opinion seems to be backed by every
handicapper and player I talked to, but it was the difference in how
to use this information that is most interesting.
There
are two schools of thought when it comes to analyzing a baseball line.
One says that pitching is so important in determining the line that to
win bets, one must also analyze the pitching. Some
handicappers/bettors analyze the starters’ statistics for recent
starts and then look to the bullpens before even looking at offensive
numbers. One of BoDog’s winningest baseball bettors last year also
subscribes to the pitching analysis theory. “When doing your homework
the night before, the only thing you can count on is the starting
pitcher. Big hitters often get days off with no notice and if you put
too much stock into hitting while doing research, you may be
disappointed frequently. By using listed pitchers to my advantage, I
am rarely surprised in a bad way.”
The
other school of thought states that because pitching is so analyzed by
book managers in determining the line that there is not much you can
do to improve upon it. Where you can improve upon the line is in the
analysis of the offence. Another handicapper, Bryan Leonard, told me
“The linesmaker has already taken into account the starting pitchers.
Most value is obtained by looking at offensive statistics. I use an
LSLR model (least squares linear regression) to break down a team's
offensive stats. That in turn shows me how an overall offense is
performing.” Perhaps staying awake during that first year stats course
would have helped me now.
Both
schools of thought make sense, both require discipline and both
require good analysis skills. The answer to the question of which is
more important ultimately rests in what you are more comfortable with
the analysis of. I recommend doing both with pencil and paper and
seeing what works best for you. Sparky Anderson once said “good
pitching beats good hitting” and it is up to you to figure out where
the “good pitching” and “good hitting” is.
Speaking of ‘good’ pitching, did you see the box scores last week for
3 of the game’s best?
Maddux - April 9th @ Phi: 5.2 IP, 12 H, 10 R, 7 ER, 3 BB, 2 HR
Big Unit - April 11th vs. Mil: 4.2 IP, 10 H, 10 R, 10 ER, 2 BB
Pedro – April 12th vs. Bal: 4.1 IP, 9 H, 10 R, 10 ER, 4 BB
Imagine
3 Cy Young Award winners serving up 10-spots in the same week.
According to
ESPN, it had only happened twice total in the previous six
seasons! Maybe good pitching just doesn’t always beat bad hitting.
However, both Pedro and Maddux came back with strong 2-hit
performances in their next start. There is some food for thought
anyways.
Before
I sign off, I’ll give you a quick recap of the baseball season so far
from the House’s point of view. We got off to a great start, as the
first two weeks were very profitable. Who would have expected the
Royals to have started 11-1 or the Red Sox to have lost Pedro’s first
three starts? However, players had their revenge this past weekend,
especially on Friday when all 12 favorites of –120 or greater cashed
in. As a result we are just up a little for the baseball season so
far.
I’ll be
back in a couple of weeks with a look at the mathematics of the
moneyline. It is mostly applicable to baseball (and hockey and soccer)
but will also be a help to football and basketball bettors.
I
always welcome comments, questions and suggestions via email at
rob@bodog.com
Rob Gillespie
President
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