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Centrebet Capers
AUSTRALIAN RULES It's not often you can smile after seven out of eight AFL favourites salute. Had it been further into the season, such a result would spell disaster, but we have to own up to finishing on the right side of the ledger after a concerted push for some of the outsiders in last weeks first round of AFL. It all began on Friday night when a group of Victorian punters backed Richmond 'off the map'. The Tigers were $2.60 in our opening market, but at kick off we took another $12,000 in two bets at $2.35. Four separate $10,000 bets were placed on Richmond with the handicap, which ranged from 16½ down to 12½. If that wasn't enough, there was also a bet of $16,000 placed on them to make the final eight at $2.20. Whilst that 'push' for Richmond was going on, there was also good public money for Collingwood. Bets of $9000 and $7500 were taken at $1.50 before they touched $1.60, as well as a wager of $7000 for them at -12½ points. Collingwood's easy 28 point win gave us an unexpected good start to season 2003. Punters fought back early on Saturday when the Kangaroos firmed from $1.75 into $1.55 before handing a 26 point defeat to St Kilda. The biggest bet for the Roos was only $8000, but the support was constant. A Victorian punter left it until the players ran onto the ground before he helped us out with a $10,000 bet for the Saints at $2.40, but it was nowhere near enough. New South Wales punters love the Sydney Swans, but we found that only the 'die hards' thought that the Swans could beat Carlton on Saturday night. Again, most of the support for Carlton came from a small group of Victorians, with our largest bet being $8000 at $2.50. Sydney attracted only two bets beyond $2000 to beat a 14 point handicap, and they were only $2500 apiece, and it would seem as though most have underestimated the speed of the Swans. Brisbane dished out a 38 point hiding to Essendon, and with money for both sides at a handicap of 30 points, not too much damage was done. Adelaide's 56 point win over Fremantle was a different matter though as we got 'cleaned up', foolishly thinking Freo could perform on the road. Three bets of $10,000 were placed on Adelaide at -29½ points, and another of $13,000 at -30 points start, with the only consolation being that we knew we were in trouble early. Apparently the Bulldogs were well backed around the country, but we had a good result when they defeated Geelong, and Melbourne's six point win over Hawthorn was only a slight loser for Centrebet. Brisbane and Adelaide are the two movers in Premiership betting, now $2.75 and $4.50 respectively. After watching Port Adelaide's 47 point loss to the West Coast, it's not hard to work out why they have been hard to sell. We envisage that the Crows will be all the rage this season as Wayne Carey already looks to have slotted into the forward line perfectly, and if the Crows have had a weakness over the past two years, it has been in that area. Most of the Brownlow favourites would have gathered votes on the weekend, with the 'standouts' being McLeod, Buckley, and Voss. Andrew McLeod has been cut to $8, but hovering right behind him are both Voss and Buckley at $11. Sydney's Adam Goodes had a solid start to the new season against Carlton, and also probably picked up votes. A Melbourne man backed Goodes to win $100,000 last Friday at $201, and he is now half those odds. This week, traditional rivals Carlton and Collingwood line up against each other on Friday night. On form, Carlton don't have a ‘hope in Hades’ of winning, but these two have a habit of putting on a good showing. Carlton are $4.20 to win, and while that hasn't been taken, nearly $3000 in bets has gone on the Blues with 29 points start. Collingwood are the 'banker' in most weekend multiples, and the $1.22 has also been taken with a $15,000 bet from Sydney. Plenty of bets around the $2000 mark have also been placed on Collingwood conceding the start. To prove what a difficult round we have coming up, a quick scan of the prices shows that in six of the games, the favorites are $1.60 or better. That doesn't always translate into big betting as those types of games are 'too close to call', and often punters prefer to keep out. One of those where that is not the case will be Saturday night's match between Port and Brisbane. This was a massive betting game in the last round last year in which Port 'fell' over the line, and even though soundly beaten last week, South Australian's think they can bounce back. Nearly 75% of the early bets have been for Brisbane at $1.60, but the biggest of those has been only $4000, but surely Port supporters can see value in the $2.30. Fremantle ($1.60) are rated by our AFL analysts to find the winners circle against Sydney this week, but while we have led the market with Sydney ($2.30), so far we have only taken $2000 worth of bets for the Swans. I know it's Richmond, but we also rate them highly against the Bulldogs on Sunday. The criticism leveled at Richmond since last week should fire them up, and the loss of Chris Grant for the season will be a savage blow to the Bulldogs. We are very keen to take on the Bulldogs in this match, but it has been a struggle. The $1.80 was taken by two bets totaling $6500, but it looks certain that a better price will be available closer to kick-off. RUGBY LEAGUE Five of the seven favourites won week three of NRL, but again we dodged a few bullets and had a more than handy weekend, mainly due to Penrith's one point win over the Roosters, and North Queensland's seven point win over Souths on Monday night. Parramatta got the ball rolling on Friday when they shook off Newcastle to record a big win. The Eels really have been disappointing for over a year now, but have always had the 'wood' on Newcastle at Parramatta. When Timana Tahu pulled out of the Knights side, that gave us a bit more confidence with Parra, and on this occasion, punters were very accommodating. Four separate $10,000 bets were placed on Newcastle to win at $1.90, and in the hour before game time, we also took a bet of £3000 from an English client. There was some money for the Eels at $1.90, as well as a bet of $2000 at $3.60 for the Eels to win into the game score being 44½ points, with that bet just sneaking home when the scoreline was 42. Canberra's four point win over the Dragons was a very grubby result in the first game on Saturday. The 'line' of -3½ started at $1.82 with us, with one Sydney punter alone winning just over $20,000 when the Raiders just snuck over the handicap. Saturday wasn't all 'doom and gloom' however when the heavily supported Warriors failed narrowly to beat a 4½ point spread in their match with Manly. This one was touch and go all the way through, and the final score of 20-16 meant we got some consolation from the narrow loss on the Canberra game. Not many shared our view that Manly could be competitive as many of the big bets for the round came for the Warriors to beat the handicap. One Sydney punter invested a total of $16,000 in two bets, and we also saw bets of $7000 and $6500 come from New Zealand for the Warriors. The jury is still out on how good the Warriors are this season, but for the time being we are still trying to lay them to win the title at $15. The 'real' Penrith stepped up to the plate on Sunday and held on to beat the Roosters 23-22. When the Roosters led 16-4 early in the second half, we had resigned ourselves to a massive payout as all and sundry tipped a massacre. It was hard to keep all of our bigger punters off the Roosters at -15½ points, and even when the line moved to -16½, we took bets of $8000 and $4400. A $25,000 double was also taken for the Roosters to win coupled up with Brisbane to beat Cronulla, which they did, so when Craig Fitzgibbon missed an easy penalty goal that would have put the Roosters back in front with a few minutes to play, we know that it would not have only been Roosters coach Ricky Stuart who would have been ruing the miss. Backing ordinary sides at bad odds is a very dangerous habit, and several found that out on Monday night when North Qld put Souths away, 27-20. The Rabbit's were valiant when just beaten by Brisbane last week, but after opening at $1.60 for the match against the Cowboys, they were backed into $1.50. We couldn't give the Cowboys away, and the largest winning bet was only $3000 with 5 points start. The bad weather in Sydney saw plenty of money for the 'under' 48½ points, led up by a bet of $8000 from Queensland at $1.65, but a late bet of $10,000 for the 'overs' at $2.25 helped cut back the liability a bit. If the North Qld side had have been a bit more adventurous instead of kicking for goal every time they got a penalty, the score would nearly have got to 48 by half time! This week, we might be a little closer to working out who are the 'contenders' and 'pretenders' for this season. Parramatta face the acid test on Friday when they take on the Bulldogs. Parra's failure to bury good sides is a concern, and when they do play the top sides, it is common for punters to bet against them. The same applies again as the early money has been for the Bulldogs to win at $1.45, as well as conceding 6 points start. With Bulldog's star Braith Anasta out for a month, we get to see how good Parramatta really are this week. Melbourne have more injury worries, and this isn't the time to be travelling to Newcastle following a Knights loss last week. We rate Newcastle the best of good things this week, and priced them accordingly. Our market was different from some others, and as a result, nearly $8000 has come for Melbourne with 14 points start. If Penrith are to be treated seriously this year, they must beat the unbeaten Canberra Raiders on Saturday night. We have posted Penrith as fav's at $1.58, with Canberra at $2.35, and although we haven't been flooded with bets on this match, we have seen money for both sides. On Sunday, early shoppers are tipping a landslide win to New Zealand over Souths. The -18½ for NZ was quickly snapped up by two $3000 bets, and most have dismissed Souths on the form displayed last Monday night. Manly are at home to Wests, and the Eagles are in a similar boat to Parramatta. They have had two narrow, unlucky defeats so far, but need to chalk up a big win. Wests were terrible last week, so for that reason alone we have gone looking for money for them this week, As yet that hasn't happened. And finally, Cronulla are at home to the Roosters as well on Sunday following on from their 'reality check' against Brisbane last week. That 30-4 loss was a very ordinary performance, but in what looms as the best betting game of the round, both Cronulla and the Roosters have been 'layable' at a 4 point handicap. The Sharks did us no favours last week, but they get another chance from us back at Toyota Park. BASKETBALL The NBL have had their private dreams come true with the Sydney "heartbreak" Kings finally into the club's first NBL grand final series. On top of that, for the first time since 1998, the number one and two seeds have made their way to the "big dance". Both the Kings and their opposition, the Perth Wildcats, had identical 22-8 regular season records, but in head to heads, the honours laid firmly with the Sydney side who won two of the three encounters, narrowly losing the other in overtime, and in Perth. Now it all comes down to a 'best of three' series which begins in Sydney tonight (Thurs). For the first time against Perth, Sydney will be at full strength, but as they displayed against Melbourne and Townsville, they are definately 'beatable'. Having said that, the same side have dished out some big hidings to all teams this year, and probably deserve to win the title. With football season in full swing, and the NBL programming different days and times for the finals series, punters have become confused as to when these games have been on, but those that are aware that the series begins tonight have been very active. The Kings are a good winner in our overall book as they have been favourites for most of the year, and our experience is that the track record of the Kings in regards to NBL finals etc has frightened anybody away from backing them, and the end result is that they are a good winner. For some reason, we have also 'missed' laying Perth at the bigger odds, so we have a comfortable position of being able to lay both the Kings ($1.60) and Perth ($2.30). In tonight's game, Sydney's home court advantage will see them go in as 5 point favourites. Final's series in any code seem to change the thinking of most punters, and while we have taken bets of $3000 and $2500 for the Kings to beat the handicap, punters have been keener on the $1.48, obviously thinking that Sydney will win, but not prepared to take a risk conceding the start. Money has come from the West for Perth with that start, including two bets of $1500, and also a bet of $2000 that the score will fall below 194 points at $2.30. Shane Heal, the guy everybody loves to hate, has been best backed to top the series points totals at $4. Heal can be a big occasion player, but he is also a heavily 'marked' man, so our preference is either Chris Williams or Perth's 'evergreen' Ricky Grace. Both have been assessed at $2.80, and it looks as though Williams will be the player we will be left with. A NSW client has placed $2000 on Heal to get the most three pointers in the final series at $2, with Grace the second pick in that option at $4.35. From an Alice Springs point of view, we will all be watching and hoping for a Sydney series win as one of our local lads, Gary Boodnikoff, is in the Kings side. The 22 year old Boodnikoff has had a spectacular season winning the 'rookie of the year' award, and can cap that off by winning the title that has eluded Sydney for all these years, who first entered the competition in 1988. MOTOR BIKES The Super Bikes season is only two rounds old, and already betting on those races looks destined for the scrap heap. With the exit of Troy Bayliss, Edwards and Haga, and Neil Hodgson winning all four races so far, we are only going to give the Superbikes another couple of rounds to see if we can revive any interest. The Ducati's seem far too superior, and unfortunately the code is now devoid of some personalities, with all due respect to Hodgson and company. Even with the second round being held in Australia last weekend, the local interest just wasn't there, with the meet hardly attracting any space in the media. Hodgson went into the weekend as raging favourite at $1.35, with one German client placing €500 ($AUD 1000) to win each race. That was virtually it for Hodgson, but we failed to get any worthwhile support for any other rider in either race. Ruben Xaus, second pick at $6, made a race of the second event when narrowly beaten, but both he and Hodgson were simply far superior to the others. The first of the Moto Grand Prix's for the new season will take place in Japan this weekend, and while it will be interesting to see how Superbike 'defectors' Edwards, Haga and Bayliss go, it is hard to go past reigning champion Valentino Rossi as the likely winner. Rossi has won this event the past two years, and impressed with some quick laps at the Suzuka circuit last week. The Italian won 11 of the 16 races last season, and is deserved of our rating of $1.90, but as always, punters are treading warily for the first race. We have taken bets to the value of $4000 from two Italian clients for Rossi to win, but I suspect that a lot will want to wait and see how the qualifying rounds pan out. Alexandre Barros finished the last season in a blaze of glory winning two of the last four races, but he doesn't yet have any admirers at $8. Max Biaggi has had a bet of $3000 placed on him to finish on the podium at $1.65, while we have taken a few bets for Troy Bayliss also to occupy a spot on the podium at $5. All betting will be updated after each day's qualifying sessions, and no doubt things will liven up a fair bit after we have all had a look as to whether or not there are any big improvers from last season to rival Honda's dominance. GOLF The Players Championship is seldom won by a player with a status less deserving than “Champion”, and this year was expected to be no different with Tiger Woods a raging $2.25 fav in a field which featured 49 of the top 50 players in the world. The Tiger had been hot, winning three of four events he had competed in this year and coming off an impressive 11 stroke victory in the Bay Hill Invitational, so rightfully he was expected to win his second Players Championship. However instead of Tiger winning his second title, an in-form Davis Love shot a final round 64 to street the field by six shots to secure his second, his first back in 1992, and his second PGA event of the year. Love joins Woods, Els and Weir as multiple winners on the tour this year in only 12 events and is testimony to how well he is playing. Strong support for internationals Harrington, Goosen, Price and Scott as well as the mandatory avalanche for Woods went astray, although supporters of Harrington were feeling confident as he took a two stroke lead into the final day. The $6.25 on offer Love coming into the final 18 holes was attractive to punters as we laid several wagers to win more than $5000 while the $2.90 on Harrington held no appeal even though he held a two shot lead with veteran Jay Haas and appeared in fine touch. But Love showed his class in difficult conditions and scored by six shots from perennial bridesmaid Harrington, and Haas, with a further shot back to fast finishing Australian Robert Allenby and a particularly consistent Jim Furyk. This week on tour we have the Bell South Classic in Georgia with defending champion Retief Goosen well in the betting at $13 behind Phil Mickelson at $8 and Mike Weir at $11. Well supported has been Stewart Cink, ($500 each way at $34), followed by 2000 SEK at $26, Steve Flesch ($300 each way at $61), and Fred Couples (3000 NOK each way at $61). Cinks’ form has picked up over recent weeks and this field is not strong, however it is uncertain whether it is good enough to win his second PGA tour event. Steve Flesch has good form at Sugarloaf with 5 top 10 finishes, and Couples improved last week when he finished 10th in the Players Championship but we don't believe he has the necessary desire required to win a tour event after four years in the doldrums. Best performed over a long period at Sugarloaf are Scott McCarron and Bob Tway, and these two represent value at $34 each. Last week on the LPGA tour we had the first major of the year in the Kraft Nabisco championship with all the top players in the world appearing, and showing nerves of steel. Patricia Meunier-Lebouc managed to hold onto the three shot lead she took into the final day and prevail by a single shot over world No.1 Annika Sorenstam with a further shot back to unlucky Mexican Lorena Ochoa and a further shot to a revitalized Laura Davies. Unfortunately Karrie Webb fired a disappointing second round 79 to fall from contention, but that was over shadowed by the amazing performance of 13 year old amateur Michelle Wie from Hawaii, who went into the final day in third place, four shots off the lead and with a real winning chance. She was unable to hold her form and closed with a four over par 76. Just to be in the final group of a major on the last day ranks as one of the greatest achievements in golf in recent times and she is a future star in the making. The depth of new talent coming through the LPGA ranks is amazing and they are sure to place pressure on Champions such as Sorenstam, Pak and Webb to perform. This week's event is the Office Depot in California with Sorenstam a firm favourite at $2.65 to open her account for the year after two forward showings in her first two outings. Money has been slow at this stage but if the last two tournaments are any indication. punters will soon rally to support their favourite players on a tour which is growing in statue and popularity. FORMULA ONE The perplexing question of whether or not the Ferrari's are as good as they were last season is still not answered after two races, but until they get back to being a dominance again, the money on these races will continue to be spread amongst most of the drivers. The new rules have definately been of assistance to the betting as drivers like Alonso or Trulli are never easy to 'lay' as they normally would occupy a back berth on the starting grid, and would probably stay there. But as was seen in Malaysia, some of these cars are capable of running quick times on empty tanks so as to get a good spot on the grid, and on this week's Brazilian Grand Prix, those two we mentioned were the first two to attract money. Both were quoted at $41, and have been backed to take out just under $20,000 in a host of bets. Kimi Raikkonen, the new 'Flying Fin', has been backed to win a similar amount at $6.50 following his win in Sepang, with practically all of that money coming from his native Finland. McLaren team mate David Coulthard has attracted heavy support from England at $7.50, whereas we are yet to 'crack it' for a decent bet on either of the two Ferrari's, Michael Schumacher ($1.80) or Rubens Barrichello at $5. A £2000 bet has gone on Coulthard to gain a podium place at $2.25, with constant support also for Raikkonen at $2, and also Ralf Schumacher $3.50, who was placed in the Grand Prix behind his brother last year. RUGBY UNION After another interesting week of Super 12’s competition one question immediately comes to mind; who is going to beat the Blues this year? In what was to be a top of the table clash against a Brumbies team brimming with confidence after a 38 point demolition of the Bulls, the Blues simply put on a football display which made the Brumbies look second rate, winning 41-15. The Blues backline with Caucaunibuca and Howlett have become the most feared since the Hurricanes in full flight during the late 90’s. Just to enhance the Blues standing as the pace setters of Super 12’s, the Crusaders were less than impressive in defeating the Highlanders 17-16 at Carisbrook and the Waratahs went down 23-35 to a fired up Reds. This has opened the door for a South African team such as the Stormers to stake their claim for a spot in the four, along with the four New Zealand teams. This week the Highlanders host the Blues in Carisbrook in what should be a typically torrid affair. The Highlanders receive 10½ points start at $1.90 and already punters have unloaded with two $5000 wagers which suggest that this game could prove to be the Blues biggest test of the season. The Reds, fresh from their first win of the season, tackle the Hurricanes at Ballymore, and have to give 2½ points start. One client from South Africa has placed $10,000 on the Reds, confident they can repeat last week’s effort against the Waratahs. In other games, the Waratahs take on the Crusaders in Sydney without inspiring captain Matt Burke, and with an injury cloud hanging over the ankle of Matt Rogers. Punters have been keen to take the $1.60 on offer the Crusaders, and after successive wagers of $10,000 at $1.60, they have now firmed into $1.48. Don't be surprised to see Rogers take the field and the Waratahs take the game up to the Crusaders. The Bulls and Stormers game in Pretorius promises to be as close as the betting indicates. Punters have come for the Stormers with one $8000 wager at $1.90, followed by $7000, which has now forced their price into $1.75. This may be a short quote as they will be without the services of Corné Krige who has been influential in their most recent wins. On Sunday the Chiefs travel to Bruce Stadium in Canberra where they take on the Brumbies, who will be keen to atone for last week’s effort against the Blues. Betting there sees the Brumbies giving up 12½ points, however punters have used the Brumbies as their banker leg in most of their multiple bets which will ensure Centrebet are hoping for a Chiefs upset. In Six Nations matches, punters were right on the ball backing England to beat Ireland with one English client placing £8000 at -6½ points, then following up with a further £4000 at -7½ points, in their 42-6 romp at Lansdowne Road. Scotland were disappointing against Italy, while France proved too strong for Wales 33-5.The talk from the Northern Hemisphere is that England, after completing the Grand Slam, are now the “best rugby nation in the world”. The Southern Hemisphere says "bring on the World Cup!" FOOTBALL It is a cliché, I know, but there are no easy games in international football these days. Fortunately for Centrebet, the news is yet to reach many thousands of its soccer punters, as betting patterns on Saturday and Wednesday's Euro 2004 qualifying fixtures prove. The matches went better than expected for, among others, Bosnia-Herzegovina boss Blaz Sliskovic, England manager Sven-Göran Eriksson and Lithuania coach Benjaminas Zelkevicius but horribly wrong for the football betting community, particularly its members with a passion for short-priced soccer accumulators. The days of World Cup silver medalists racking up cricket scores in home games against teams yet to participate in the latter stages of a major international soccer tournament are long gone. Punters, however, did not refrain from betting enormous sums of money on World Cup runners-up Germany crushing Lithuania in Nürnberg on Saturday, both in single and accumulator wagers. Germany looked set to justify Centrebet's match odds of $1.08 after assuming the lead in the eighth minute but one of Lithuania's five shots found the home side's net midway through the second half. Others teams that let down Euro 2004 punters on the weekend were Netherlands ($1.65 to defeat Czech Republic - they drew 1-1), Poland ($1.78 to beat Hungary - they drew 0-0), Russia ($1.60 to defeat Albania - they lost 3-1) and Spain ($2.05 to beat Ukraine - they drew 2-2). If Saturday was bad, Wednesday was disastrous. The failures of Bulgaria ($1.65 to defeat Estonia - they drew 0-0), Ireland ($1.80 to beat Albania - they drew 0-0), Scotland ($2.20 to beat Lithuania - they lost 1-0) and Switzerland ($1.80 to beat Georgia - they drew 0-0) caused immense heartache but nothing topped the pain that Bosnia-Herzegovina inflicted on punters who backed Denmark at $1.22 to strengthen their Group Two claims with a home win. England provided punters with three of their very rare successes during the week's Euro 2004 action. Sven-Göran Eriksson side beat Turkey 2-0 in Sunderland at $1.90. In the same game, David Beckham's last-minute penalty conversion and Wayne Rooney's failure to mark his first England start with one or more goals saw punters collect on two of Centrebet's exotic markets at $4.25 and $1.40 respectively. Not much of a consolation, though. Until next week, good punting. For further information contact Gerard Daffy at Centrebet on 08 89555800 or on centrebet@centrebet.com.
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