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Aussie
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Centrebet Capers
AUSTRALIAN RULES St Kilda delivered a big knockout blow to punters in last week's round of AFL, with victory again going to the bookies. The form of the Saints at Telstra Dome is better than anywhere else, so we were more than happy to stick with them, particularly with 24½ points start. Adelaide were big winners in the opening round, and were very easy to lay against St Kilda, with the largest bets being $14,000 to win at$1.30, and $12,500 giving up 24 points start. Needless to say, the Crows were also 'anchored' in some pretty serious multiple bets, and when they went down by eight points, it was going to be hard for us to lose on the round. Carlton gave us a big sight on Friday night when 16 point losers to Collingwood, but more importantly the Blues stayed inside the handicap spread. The betting was big on this game, and in fact the whole round was the same, with the total wagered just falling short of a Centrebet record for AFL. We figured, or was that hoped, that Carlton could stay with Collingwood, and proceeded to take several four figure investments on Collingwood at -29½ points with the largest of those being $8000. Two $15,000 bets were placed on the Magpies to win at $1.22, and while those punters eventually got the cash, bad kicking probably cost Carlton victory. Essendon landed a massive plunge when they thrashed Melbourne on Saturday. The Bombers firmed from $1.75 into $1.62, with most of the money, including a bet of $11,000, coming on the morning of the match. The only glimmer of hope we had was when James Hird left the field, but even that made little difference as the Bombers belittled Melbourne by 37 points. Brisbane were also heavily backed into $1.45 against Port Adelaide. Most of the money, and it was all 'late', came from those who had won on Essendon. While Brisbane won the game 86-76, the Lions did us a service by playing 'keepings off' for the last minute of play. We had taken several big bets, including one of $10,000, for Brisbane at -10½ points, but with Brisbane surging forward in the last minute, we were 'gone'. It was then that the Lions decided to use a ploy that Essendon have used in the past, kicking the ball to a loose man without worrying about trying to score. That suited us fine as they 'ran down the clock', but we can only imagine what sort of language would have been coming from the mouths' of those who conceded the start. Sunday was a good day for Centrebet when West Coast went over to Hawthorn, and the Kangaroos defeated Geelong. Peter Everitt's withdrawal from Hawthorn, and the West Coast's Ben Cousin inclusion into the side after a successful tribunal appeal saw the Eagles start $1.70, after opening at $2.10. Geelong maintained their inconsistent form when 23 point losers at home to the Kangaroos. A client from that area plonked $10,000 on the Cats at $1.80 which capped off a bad day as he had the same amount on the West Coast. Richmond were also a big mover in their match against the Bulldogs, and while we did accept a bet of $10,000 for a Richmond win at $1.90, we saw enough money come for the Bulldogs to record a healthy win on the game. This week, Fremantle, the side who seem to have an aversion to flying, get an ideal opportunity to win away from home, or at least that's what punters think. We opened the Dockers at $2.70 against Richmond, and that was taken with a bet of $4000 from Victoria. A steady stream of smaller bets followed at $2.50 before we found out that Matthew Richardson would be out of the Richmond side. Now punters are taking $2.40 for Fremantle, and while it is very dangerous to be putting too much faith in Richmond when they are favourites, Fremantle still have to board that plane, and they seem to have trouble coping with that! With Carlton captain Brett Ratten out for three weeks, Essendon are going to run out as very short priced fav's in that match on Friday. Carlton were 'up' for their match against Collingwood last week, but we can see them getting massacred here. We posted the line at a high 26½ points looking for Carlton money, but as yet there are no takers. One Melbourne man is tipping more upsets by placing $4000 on St Kilda ($3.70) to beat the Eagles, and also $4000 on Geelong ($3.40) to beat Collingwood, and we hope he is right as those two favourites, along with Essendon, have been coupled up in all the big multiples. The Swans v Adelaide game is shaping as the 'big one' for the round with heaving betting coming from both states for their respective teams. The early mover has been Adelaide, into $1.75, but Sydney have shown enough to date that they are worth backing at the $2.05 on offer, which their fans are helping themselves to. All the usual suspects have firmed up in Brownlow betting where Nathan Buckley is our $6 favourite ahead of Andrew McLeod and Michael Voss on $8, while Carlton have been cut to $2.30 to win the wooden spoon. The Blues gave it their best shot last week, but it's hard to see how they are going to win enough games to avoid the inevitable. CRICKET Bad weather is tipped to intervene during the First Test between the West Indies and Australia which gets under way in Georgetown tonight (Thursday). The Aussies appear horribly short in the betting given that in the last 15 Tests at this ground there have been 10 draws, and the West Indies have not been beaten at this ground since 1987/88. On top of that, we (Australia!) will be going in without the lethal McGrath/Warne combo, and doubts on the fitness level of Jason Gillespie still exist. So why are Australia favourites then? Well it is purely on their recent record and level of popularity with cricket punters. The $1.75 we posted has been taken to the tune of $US 20,000 from two Indian punters, and the $1.70 continues to be taken by loyal Aussie followers. We have seen two $2000 bets for the draw at $2.60 for two Australians who have obviously had a look at the weather reports and the ground statistics, and we have even seen plenty of small bets for the Windies at $8. Betting on this Test will be updated at the end of each day's play, and with Fox Sports beaming in live coverage, we expect a good deal of activity even though we are well into football season. RUGBY LEAGUE Henry Faafili scored a telling try in the final few seconds of the Warriors v Souths match last Sunday. With all the off-field drama's surrounding Souths, we thought that maybe that would be detrimental to their chances on Sunday. There had been a sprinkling of early money for New Zealand conceding 18 points start, so following on from the events of Saturday, we decided to take on the Rabbitohs with 19 points start. Two $10,000 bets came from NSW with the start, as well as another of $5500, and when Souths' Nathan Merritt scored with 50 seconds to play, the margin was reduced to 18, and we had all but conceded. Then miraculously, Faafili executed some nifty footwork to also score in the corner to take the margin back to 22 points, a totally unexpected ending as far as we were concerned. The other two Sunday matches proved costly, but at least we were out of our misery early on in both games. How on earth we rated Manly 'specials' against the Tigers is a mystery after their abysmal 26 point loss. We were more than happy to take money from Wests' supporters, and plenty recorded big wins, led up by one who had a total of $9000 on the Tigers with 6 points start. Manly were absolute rabble, and it may be a while before they go around as short priced favourites. The Roosters crushed Cronulla 40-20, and watching that performance, it is hard to fathom how Penrith ever beat them, but that's football! We were pretty eager to risk the Roosters, and punters assisted with some of the bigger bets being $15,000 to win at $1.58, and $10,000 conceding 4½ points start. On Friday, the Bulldogs confirmed their premiership favouritism with a resounding 30-10 win over Parramatta. Bets of $9000 and $6000 were placed on this game total being UNDER 44½ points at $1.65. Bad weather was the catalyst behind those who took the odds on, but when the score was 28-4 in favour of the Bulldogs at half time, we considered that we had that money 'in the bag'. Not so however, as in a slogging second half, the Bulldogs could only add two points to their total, with Parramatta adding a converted try. That was an ordinary result, and so was the game itself, with 90% of the bets coming for the Bulldogs. This week, the Bulldogs again feature on Friday night when they trek north to Newcastle. The Knights are rarely at a 'backable' quote at home, which has meant that in this game, they have been layable at the $2.05 on offer. A big bonus will be the return of Ben Kennedy, and they were impressive for the first 60 minutes against Melbourne last week. The Bulldogs are a side who are not so easy to sell when away from home against quality opposition, but we have already seen bets of $7000 and $5000 for the Bulldogs at $1.80. Trying to nail butter to the wall would be easier than selecting the winner of the Souths v Wests Tigers match, but that's what we are all expected to do on Saturday night. The Wests who won last week would win easily, but what about the previous week? Then Souths, who haven't won a game this season, took it right up to Brisbane at home a few weeks back, so it's a difficult task. You can bet that Souths will be mighty hard to beat here even though they are the outsiders at $2.15. Bets of $8000 and $6000 have been taken to win, as well as two bets totalling $7000 for Souths with three points start. Wests aren't the type of side that punters get enthused about when favourites, which would explain why trading on them at $1.70 has been slow. Melbourne put on 24 points in the second half against Newcastle last week, but they were shocking in the first half when they trailed 34-0. Cronulla played a similar game against the Roosters, and need to win in Melbourne if they are to be considered a threat this year. The Storm are slight fav's at $1.60, attracting bets of $5000 to win as well as bets of $4000 and $2500 for the Storm to overcome a 3 point handicap. It does seem short enough with Scott Hill still out. If punters are thinking that déjàvu has struck them, it hasn't as these two sides met in round one when Cronulla led 22-0 late in the first half before being beaten 36-32. The Sharks get one last chance off us this week, but it is all dependent on whether David Peachey plays. On Sunday, the undefeated Canberra Raiders have been written off against Parramatta. The Raiders are already out to $2.90 as the early traders have jumped into Parra, including close to $8000 in bets for the Eels to cover a six point spread. Parramatta must be running out of chances with punters, but the Eels did beat Newcastle here two weeks ago, and while Canberra are yet to taste defeat, in all fairness, they are yet to line up against a 'gun' side, if you can call Parramatta that. MOTOR RACING We didn't receive any complaints from the dozens of Finnish clients who collected when Kimi Raikkonen 'won' the Brazilian Grand Prix on Sunday. In what might possibly be the most bizarre GP ever run, we had Raikkonen awarded the race when the officials took the race result back two laps after an accident stopped it, which meant that Giancarlo Fisichella, who was ahead when the race was stopped, was relegated to second placing which is where he was two laps prior. When it came time to present the place getters on the podium, 'third' placed Fernando Alonso, was in an ambulance as he was one of the drivers involved in the spectacular crash that brought about the premature end. As mentioned last week, Raikkonen had been well supported at $6.50 before qualifying. He went into the race as a $5.50 chance, with the betting wide open after Rubens Barrichello qualified quickest. Barrichello became our $2.85 favourite, and while he, along with Michael Schumacher ($3.50) met with the usual barrage of bets, we also took a bet of €5000 for Barrichello to run a place at $1.55. Unbelievably, Barrichello ran out of petrol when the race was in his keeping, and this was the ninth consecutive time that he had failed to finish his 'home' GP. Schumacher wasn't happy that his closest rival in the Drivers' championship, Raikkonen, was award the full 10 points claiming under the rules he needed to complete 75 laps, not 74. The new rules have come under plenty of criticism again regarding the tyres in such conditions, and while the safety aspect should be everyone's priority, these changes, along with the results so far, have ensured that the betting popularity is now at it's highest level. In fact, the Brazilian GP saw our biggest betting turnover, outside of the Aussie GP, since we first started taking bets on the Formula Ones. Whilst Raikkonen winning was not one of our better results, we still managed to record a pretty good win thanks to the other options that we had on offer. Schumacher is out to $1.90 to win the Drivers Championship, but it is Raikkonen, on the back of two wins in a row, who the punters want at $3.50. While on the form displayed there still look to be several chances, punters see it only as a race in two. GOLF In an event short of big names, last week's Bell South Classic still managed an exciting finish, with Ben Crane becoming the first 1st time winner on the PGA tour for 2003. In what signals a changing of the guard, Crane came from six shots behind leader Lee Janzen, who held a two shot advantage over fellow Major winner Bob Tway. Janzen has not won on tour for eight years, while it has been six years since Tway last saluted, but despite their wealth of experience neither were able to stave off Crane who finished with a course equalling 63, and that's after commencing with a double bogey on the ninth hole, his first. Retief Goosen showed he was ready for another crack at this weeks Masters with a final round 65, taking him into a tie for third. Mickelson and Harrington who were expected to be prominent, failed to make the cut and will need to improve significantly to be a force this week. Stewart Cink and Fred Couples were well supported in this event and although finishing a credible tied for 6th and 13th respectively, were never really a winning chance. This week on tour is the first Major of the year, the 2003 Masters where Tiger Woods dominates the betting at $2.30, from Ernie Els at $8 and Davis Love at $14. There has been constant support for these three players with one bet of $2000 each way on Els at $10, but perhaps best backed has been Darren Clarke, with wagers of $1000 each way at $61, followed by 5000 SEK each way also. Allenby, in spite of personal problems, Couples and DiMarco have all been well supported, but it is the big three at the top of the betting who punters are keen on. We are offering a host of betting options along with Championship betting such as tournament head to heads, 3 balls, make the cut, winning margin and ‘will a hole in one be scored?’ Last week on the LPGA tour we saw defending champion Annika Sorenstam lead all the way in the Office Depot to defeat Si Ri Pak, Heather Bowie and Pat Hurst by four shots. It was the third time in as many starts on tour this year that Sorenstam has had the opportunity to win, but on this occasion she held it together on the Sunday to record her first of what should be many wins in 2003. Only the four players finished under par at El Caballero CC in California which highlights how well Sorenstam is playing again after missing the first couple events due to injury. There is no event this week as The Masters takes the spotlight, but no doubting Sorenstam will prove very difficult to beat in defending the title she won in a play-off against the consistent Lorie Kane last year in the Takefuji Classic. HARNESS RACING The pacing and trotting Inter Dominion finals will be on this Friday night, and while the betting has been well down on previous years due firstly to Take A Moment's dominance in the 'trotters' and the withdrawal of Young Rufus in the 'pacers', now that the final fields have been assembled, we are beginning to see plenty of activity, particularly from New Zealand. Take a Moment is a raging $1.33 to win the trot final, and while he raced very roughly in last week's heats due to new shoes, I am sure he will be right for the final. The only reason that Take a Moment is not shorter is due to barrier 10, but if he keeps out of trouble, he looks near on unbeatable. Our worst result is Castleton's Mission after we accepted a $2000 each way bet at $11 two weeks ago. He was very disappointing when finishing down the track last week, but there has been money for him at $6.50. Martina H hasn't been able to recapture the form she showed in Australia early in the year, but a few Australian punters think she can. We have laid several small bets for her to win at $21, and also two bets of $1500 for a top three finish at $4. If there is to be an upset, it may well come from Frugal Echo, a $13 chance. The inside barrier is a huge advantage in these races, and while Frugal Echo may not be able to match motors with Take a Moment, he can definately run a place. In the pacing final, pre-post bookies face some hefty payouts should favourite Baltic Eagle greet the judge. Baltic Eagle is a small winner for us, with the largest 'live' bet being $2000 at $3.50, and while he looks the one to beat, it is still a big final where the pressure will be on, so we are looking for takers at the $1.90. Mont Denver Gold ($6) is another who has been backed all the way through the series, but has come up with barrier 13, and is going to need a lot of luck. Trying to find something to beat the favourites, we have decided on Facta Non Verba and Thorpedo. Fact Non Verba wasn't knocked about last week, and while drawn the second row, Facta Non Verba does go better with a 'sit'. If Thorpedo can take advantage of the four barrier, he definately is worth an each way ticket at around the $26 mark. RUGBY UNION It was a mixed bag of results for punters and bookmakers alike in round seven of Super 12's over the weekend. While we are getting used to our share of results during a round, none this season has been more unexpected and as well received by Centrebet as the Waratahs effort in defeating defending champions, the Crusaders, at SFS last Saturday night. After opening at $1.60, the Crusaders were so well supported that their closing quote of $1.33 was more a reflection of weight of money, rather than the withdrawals of Burke and Rogers. Punters were obviously more aware than Centrebet that either would play, and after consecutive wagers of $10,000 at $1.60 we were forced to shorten that quote into $1.50. But the money did not stop there and our opening handicap of 4½ points at $1.90 was quickly snaffled by alert punters, with over $100,000 being wagered on the Crusaders by kick-off time, and that did not include any multiples which nearly all included the ill fated Crusaders. The roar from Centrebet could be heard in Baghdad when Shaun Berne converted ‘that’ penalty from 50 metres out to give the Waratahs their three point victory. In other matches on the weekend, punters were on the money as they quickly took the 10½ points start on offer the Highlanders at $1.90 against the Blues at the ‘House of Pain’, and although the Blues were well supported in multis, the Highlanders were not the result one expected in getting the undefeated Blues beaten. In other games the Hurricanes were well supported to end the Reds' disappointing season at $2.10, the Stormers well supported to defeat the Bulls in a South African derby, and the Brumbies could not be seen beaten by the hapless Chiefs in Canberra, but all paled in importance compared to the Waratahs. This week the action has been slow early with most betting taking place on multis through the Crusaders at $1.08 against the Cats, the Blues at $1.22 against the Bulls in Pretoria, and the Stormers at $1.28 at home against the unpredictable Reds. In other games there has been early money for the Hurricanes at -6½ points at $1.90, with one wager of $5000, and in the final match the Chiefs have the opportunity to notch their second win of the season when they take on the Sharks, who receive 5½ points start, in Hamilton. ENTERTAINMENT One of Centrebet's most popular entertainment books is open after Eurovision Song Contest organisers made available this year's 26 entries on various World Wide Web sites. Business is brisk, with punters keen on the chances of most of our favourites, particularly Germany, Ireland, Spain and the controversial entrants about whom everyone in the music industry is talking, Russian pop stars tATu. Their draw is dreadful, and their song is shocking, but rumours are circulating that the two girls will smooch midway through performing their Russian-language record. Clearly, punters think that tATu's Eurovision rivals can kiss goodbye to their hopes of winning on May 24 if the Russians pull such a stunt. SOCCER Manchester United are $12 to make the most of home advantage in this season's Champions League final at Old Trafford after the Meringues of Real Madrid whipped Sir Alex Ferguson's team in the first leg of their quarter-final tie. Centrebet offered in-running betting throughout the match of the round and, having seen Vicente del Bosque's side cut United apart in the opening period, punters did not mind taking very short prices about Zinedine Zidane and company holding on to their early gains. Real were $1.80 at kick-off time, $1.35 following Luis Figo's 12th-minute opener, $1.10 after Raul's 28th-minute buffer-builder and $1.07 when betting reopened after second-half goals in quick succession for Raul and Red Devils striker Ruud Van Nistelrooy. So visible was the gulf in class between the two teams that we hardly took a bet on United throughout the game. A Norwegian punter did, however, throw away 2000 NOK on the two-time European champions at $41 during the half-time interval, while another Scandinavian sage included Real in a successful 100 NOK nine-leg football, handball and ice hockey wager that paid 35,000 NOK. The boot had been on the other foot for the Red Devils three days earlier when they entertained Liverpool in an English Premier League game at Old Trafford. United's match odds dropped from $1.77 to $1.12 as a result of Reds defender Sami Hyypia's red card and Van the Man's subsequent penalty goal in the game's fifth minute. After being tremendously well supported prior to kick-off time, perhaps due to the fact that they had won the last two Lancashire league derbies at Old Trafford by one goal to nil, Liverpool were friendless following their skipper's harsh dismissal and United's early strike. Even though Centrebet's fearless in-running punters backed United at prohibitive prices during the match, the pre-game cash for Gerard Houllier's woefully one-dimensional side, including big money on its handicap line, ensured that United's 4-0 home victory did not do any damage. BASKETBALL Our annual foray into college basketball proved to be popular with punters as interest and turnover steadily increased throughout the 63 game tournament which reached it's conclusion on Monday (US time) when Kansas and Syracuse met in the Championship deciding game. Kansas opened as a 4½ point favourite and all the early money was for them as the line moved to 5, and then 5½. We had a very one-sided book until about 15 minutes before tip-off when a bet of $6000 and several bets between $2000 and $3000 came for Syracuse at +5½ ($1.90). Those that took the plus 5½ didn't have too many worries as the ‘Orangemen’ jumped to an early lead and built it to as much as 18 points before going to the half-time break with an 11 point lead. Their 53 first half points were the most points scored by a team in the first half of an NCAA title game. Kansas made inroads into the lead in the second half and trailed by just 3 points with 14 minutes remaining but to the dismay of favourite backers they were unable to sustain that charge. Syracuse eventually won 81-78 and left Kansas wondering what could have been if not for their pitiful 12 of 30 from the free throw line. There is still plenty of interest in the NBA as the play-offs approach. The last few games have a ‘silly season’ feel about them as some teams are in ‘must win’ positions with play-off places at stake, and others give plenty of court time to their bench players in an effort to decide if they are worth keeping for next season. It becomes very tricky for punters and odds makers alike. Whilst the number one seeding in both the Western and Eastern Conferences is yet to be determined, what has become clear is that of the 16 teams who will contest the playoffs, punters believe that only four have a winning chance. Apart from the Western Conference powers of Dallas, Sacramento, San Antonio and LA Lakers it is possible to get at least $21 about the chances of any of the other teams winning the title. In the East there is a four way battle for the number one seeding, but Tuesday's results which saw Indiana lose to lowly Chicago and Philly win over Detroit may have narrowed it down to a two team race with New Jersey holding the upper hand over Philadelphia. At the other end of the play-off picture in the East, Michael Jordan is doing all in his power to carry Washington past Milwaukee and into the final play-off position, but his best efforts may be in vain as the Bucks look well placed to hold on. It is a similar story in the West with San Antonio finally getting the upper hand over Dallas as they once again failed miserably against the Lakers to lose the season series 1-3. They haven't beaten the Lakers in LA in their last 25 tries and you would have to think that the Lakers would not mind seeing them as their first round play-off opponent. With the Mavericks looking extremely likely to be the number 3 seed we could see the Lakers engineer their season finish to ensure they finish 6th. That scenario would mean that of the four at the top of the betting, one will not advance past the first round. As is the case in the East the battle is intense for the final play-off position with Phoenix and Houston battling for the right to extend their season for at least another four games. Post season action begins April 19 and we eagerly await that date to see if the Lakers can win their fourth consecutive title or if they will be de-throned as NBA Champions. We couldn't sign off without congratulating the Sydney Kings on breaking one of sport's biggest droughts. The Kings have copped plenty off us in recent years but there was no doubting Shane Heal and his men were the best team and thoroughly deserved to be crowned NBL Kings. Until next week, good punting. For further information contact Gerard Daffy at Centrebet on 08 89555800 or on centrebet@centrebet.com.
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