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Aussie
Rules
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Centrebet Capers
AUSTRALIAN RULES Punters extracted some revenge on bookies when six of the eight favourites won last weekend with Geelong and Richmond providing no relief getting up as heavily backed outsiders. Things got off to a poor start with Brisbane backing off the accelerator for a cruisy 14 point win over Collingwood in a replay of last year's grand final. We had taken some hefty bets, including two of $10,000, for Collingwood with 24˝ points start. Brisbane were cruising to an effortless win when 30 points clear with a few minutes to play, but let Collingwood get a few easy shots on goal which saw them get under the handicap, and also flattered the Magpies to some degree as Brisbane were far superior on the night. Geelong landed a big plunge around the country when they ran out 46 point victors over Melbourne. Much better odds was given than the $2.05 we opened with, and we never really took a big bet until they touched $1.95, but a $15,000 bet at that quote saw the Cats go into the game as a loser for us. It was similar in the Fremantle v Kangaroos game. We were keen to take on the travelling side as we maintain it is near on impossible to beat the West Australian sides at home, but it was a real battle to get any decent money for the 'Roos, even when they reached $2.30. Punters are a wake up now, and we laid Freo all the way down to $1.58 at kick off. It's a real battle of wits as punters know the home record of the West Australian sides, and also how bad they are, particularly Freo, away from home, and the betting trends go along with those theories. The best price for Fremantle at home is always early in the week, and the best price when they play interstate is normally at the close of betting. Even though they were one of the winning favourites, we won something on the Hawthorn v Sydney match when there was a good push for the Swans from a group of Victorian punters. Win bets of $9000 and $4000 were placed on the Swans at $2.30, as well as bets of $10,000 and $8000 for them with 12 points start. They were in the game until half time, but the big MCG ground is a different venue than the confines of the SCG, and they simply ran out of legs to be beaten by 42 points. The Easter Monday fixture between St Kilda and Richmond wouldn't normally excite too many into having a bet, but with this one being the only football match played in Australia, we saw an unexpectedly high volume of betting activity. Both sides have their share of detractors, and we can only wonder whether those that had a bet did so for the main reason of 'potting' the other side. This was certainly the case with one Sydney punter who parted with $18,000 for a St Kilda win at $1.85 just before the game started. Richmond had four separate bets of $5000 placed on them at $1.95, but were a good winner for us. The Anzac Day grudge match between Essendon and Collingwood will see the Magpies go in as short priced favourites, an anomaly compared to years gone by. The opening $1.46 was taken with bets of $9000 and $5000, but we have also seen money for Essendon at $2.60. The handicap of 16˝ points has seen most of the betting come for Essendon who are receiving the start, and already this is shaping as a very big betting match. Later that same night, Sydney return to the SCG as $1.70 fav's against Melbourne, with both needing a win to get back on track. The Swans are always hard to beat at home, but are having trouble posting a respectable score, and for that reason, we think that they will be beaten. Carlton were so poor against Port last week that we are not surprised that not many have come back to support them against the Kangaroos this week. The opening $2.25 for Carlton only attracted a handful of very small bets, and they seem certain to start at a much higher quote, and will also be battling to come away from Telstra Dome with the four points! The big battles for the week however are to be found interstate, with two local “derbies”. There were conflicting views in our office as to who should be favourite in the Fremantle v West Coast game, but West Coast 'got the nod' slightly at $1.78. Betting has been keen at that price, even though its the last game of the round, but it does appear likely that the Eagles will go in as favourites. As for the result, we are not so sure. Adelaide are $1.68 to beat Port Adelaide ($2.15), with bets coming at a rapid rate for both sides. Similar to the game in the West, opinions are divided on who will win this one, which only makes for a better betting match. Meanwhile in Brownlow Medal news, Adelaide's Andrew McLeod is now a $5 chance to win the coveted award, and in current form, he only has to keep out of trouble to atone for an unlucky defeat two years ago. Michael Voss is second pick at $5.50, and last Friday had a $2000 bet placed on him at $6.50 from a Victorian punter. Team-mate Nigel Lappin is also in fine form, and is now into $11 following an impressive display against Collingwood last week. RUGBY LEAGUE What an exciting weekend of rugby league last week, and a couple of sides can thank their lucky stars that they came away with the two points. The most fortunate of all were the shortest priced favourites of the round, the New Zealand Warriors. In miserable conditions, the Warriors recorded a 30-24 point win over North QLD in Auckland, with most of their 30 points coming from tries against the run of play. A Sydney client had a good position on this match after he was 'alive' going into the Warriors conceding 21 points start. His $50 bet was worth $42,000 if the Warriors had covered, but he took the right course of action and placed $20,000 on North QLD with the start, winning $18,000 on the match. Those who took the $1.07 for the Warriors to win, including one Kiwi with a bet of $8000, would have endured some harrowing moments in the final few minutes before they got home by 6 points. Cronulla are 'winless' after five rounds, but they put up a mighty performance against Newcastle on Sunday. Money was around for both sides, but our thinking was that the Sharks were on the verge of a win, and we took a 'risk' with Newcastle conceding 6˝ points start. In the space of a few minutes, the Sharks went from looking likely to win to trailing by 2 points with a matter of seconds to play. Matt Parson's, who had not scored a try in 77 previous appearances for Newcastle, got the ball, and carried it, as well as three Sharks, over the line to score on full time. The subsequent conversion saw Newcastle home by 8 points, covering the spread. The ever popular Souths going down by 2 points to Penrith was a much better result for us, even though one Sydney punter placed $10,000 on Souths with 2 points start. The Rabbitohs were backed from an opening $2.15 into $2 and as we have said before, it doesn't matter how bad Souths are going, if they play a side that there is even the remotest chance of them winning, their fans come out to back them en masse. Manly and Melbourne was also an entertaining game in so much as it could have went either way, but Manly posted their second successive win, getting home by 6 points, thus rewarding one brave Sydney man who had placed $20,000 on Manly conceding 2˝ points start at $1.90. The Broncos played well on Good Friday to only go down by 7 points to the Roosters. As we were closed all day Friday, the betting that took place on this match was down on expectations, but there were a couple of big winners who took the 8 points start given to Brisbane. St George Illawarra staged a remarkable form reversal to beat the Bulldogs, and while most people may have thought that bookies would have 'filled up' on that result, it certainly wasn't the case at Centrebet. Yes, we did win, but there was any amount of support for the Dragons to win at $4, and we also took three bets of $5000 for them with the 10 points start. The Bulldogs also had their fair share of support, but not what we would normally expect to see on a $1.20 chance. This week, there will be two matches on Friday, Anzac Day, as is the case with the AFL. The Dragons got themselves 'up' for last week's match against the Bulldogs, but the Roosters might be a different story. The Roosters are the ultimate team, and should show why they are our $3.25 favourites to win back to back premierships by teaching the Dragons a football lesson. The Roosters are the fav's at $1.35, and we have seen two bets of $2500 come for them conceding the handicap of 9 points start, but the bulk of bets coming have been for St George both to win at $3.20, and with the start. Parramatta have had some serious battles with Brisbane over the years, and while the form of the Eels is still questionable, there is little doubt that they may not get a better opportunity to beat Brisbane than this week although the loss of their tough skipper Nathan Cayless is certainly a setback. Again there is money for both sides, with the Eels at $2.30, and two early bets of $4000 for Brisbane at $1.60. Most of the handicap bets have been for the Bronco's (+3˝), and there have been two bets totalling $11,000 for the total game score to be under 44˝ points at $1.90. Early traders predict a big win to Newcastle over Wests. The -18˝ points handicap was quickly snapped up, as was the -19 with a bet of $8000 from Queensland. Later on Saturday, we rate Canberra a good hope to beat the Bulldogs in the nation’s capital, but so do punters. The $2.30 for Canberra to win, as well as a start of 4 points, disappeared as soon as betting opened on Wednesday with the 'charge' coming from a small group of Sydney punters. It's hard to believe that Manly, who were copping so much criticism a fortnight ago, will be going for three wins on end on Sunday when they play Souths. Manly are $1.46 to win, and in what is shaping as a good betting game, the early betting is split right down the middle. The other match on Sunday will see New Zealand at home to Penrith. The Panthers are capable of beating anybody on their day, and from our viewpoint, the Warriors are riding for a fall, and this might be it. The $1.20 we posted for New Zealand to win has been taken in a $10,000 double with Newcastle, but apart from that they have been hard to sell. There is no panic just yet as most people prefer to bet on the day of the game, but we are very keen to take on the Warriors this week, especially giving up 14 points start. ENTERTAINMENT Russian duo tATu remain at the top of betting to win this year's Eurovision song contest, despite being criticised in the media this week. Some of their antics have raised serious questions over whether the voters will be impressed or not, but that hasn't stopped the flow of bets coming in at $3. Second favourite, Spain ($9), were the first nation we laid when betting opened, but now that the money is more evenly spread around, they are back out to where they started. Spain continue to be at the top of most popularity polls. Latvia won the contest last year, but it has been extremely rare for the host nation to win again, but that hasn't proved a deterrent as Latvia have already been backed to take out close to $20,000 at $11. Germany are another nation that have been backed to win a similar amount at $15, but may have fared badly in the draw as they are on before tATu. On top of that, and this is for our Australian readers, the German singer is a Pauline Hanson look-a-like, so that alone is nearly enough for us to strike it out as a winning chance! One thing that is worth noting is the 'draw' itself. The last four winners have come from the group after the major break, with the last two winners coming from late in the night. Iceland will be the first song, so that makes them a good risk in our book at $12. Sweden and Norway, both at $14, have the aid of a good draw, and not bad songs, and in Sweden's favour is that the duo Fame singing Give Me Your Love are being touted as the next ABBA. MOTOR BIKES The mood will be very sombre during the South African Moto Grand Prix this week following the death of Daiijiro Kato as a result of a fall in the first race of the season. It is a very timely reminder of how dangerous these sports can be, and only goes to reinforce the fact that they deserve every cent that they get. With Valentino Rossi winning that race in Japan, we expect punters to be full of confidence to back him again this week. The $1.50 hasn't been taken for any significant amounts just yet, but we can't see any reason why that won't be popular as Rossi continues his dominance where he left off last season. Rossi was runner-up here last year behind Tohru Ukawa, with Loris Capirossi third. Ironically, the same trio filled the placings in 2001, with Rossi winning. Ukawa is a $13 chance this week, but Capirossi is shorter at $9. The Ducati's performed fairly in Japan, and if there is to be an upset, it might well come from Capirossi. The Super Bikes will race in Japan this week, and this is always a very tricky weekend of betting. Neil Hodgson has won all four races this season as a 'red hot' favourite, and did finish third and fourth in the two corresponding races last year when the field was much stronger. That is the good news if you fancy taking the $1.80 we are offering, but the bad news is that these races are normally won by Japanese 'wild cards'. The reason for that is that Japan has their very own Super Bike series, and it is a strong one. Atsushi Watanabe won that series last year, and we have kept him 'safe' at $10, as well as Kenichiro Nakamura ($21), who was third placed in the corresponding race last year. GOLF It certainly has been an unusual start to the PGA tour with four players winning 11 of the 15 events played in 2003, and with defending champions having a good record thus far, it was no surprise to see Davis Love 111 salute for his fifth MCI Heritage title. His last victory here came in 1998 but with two wins already this season a prominent showing was expected by punters who did not forget to back him, the largest wager, 5000 NOK each-way at $9. With Love, Els, Cink and Furyk all well supported and heading the leader board, Centrebet were looking for a big last round by one of the lesser lights and it came in the form of a 68 from Woody Austin, winless on the tour since the 1995 Buick Open. The last few holes were full of surprises, Els holding a two stroke lead as he stood on the 16th tee. He proceeded to hit his drive out of bounds and make double-bogey which was followed by bogies on the 17th and 18th. Austin and Sutton held a one stoke lead over Love with one to play, but an unlucky bogey on the last saw Sutton slip from contention while Love kept his cool and chipped in from 60 feet to force a play-off. Woody Austin's last victory came in the form of a play-off but as it had been eight years since he was last in a pressure cooker situation, most people believed Love would prove too steady. What happened over the next three holes proved quite the contrary as Austin had six and three foot putts on consecutive holes to win the tournament, not from good play but because of the erratic play from Love. He found the pressure too much however and missed both, only to see Love hit the flag stick on the 4th extra hole, make birdie and win his third event of the season. This week we head to Texas for the Shell Houston Open where Vijay Singh returns to defend the title he won last year. One wager of $500 each way at $10 suggests Singh can repeat his effort of last year, but he'll meet stiff opposition in Ernie Els ($6.50) and Phil Mickelson ($7) who are both coming off forward showings at their last outings. Others well backed have been K J Choi and Fred Couples, two separate wagers of $200 each way at $51 and Ben Crane and Geoff Ogilvy, $150 each way at $67 respectively. Hal Sutton who tied for second last week, and won here in 2001, represents good value at $51, while the ever consistent Chad Campbell is another who will give you a good sight for your money. On other tours, Frederik Jacobson won his second event of the season in Portugal, while Candie Kung became a first time winner on the LPGA tour in holding out a fast finishing Annika Sorenstam by two shots. On the European tour we head to Spain this week where Sergio Garcia defends his national title he won for the first time last year, and has been well supported at $9 along with Brian Davis ($500 each way at $21) and James Kingston ($200 each way at $67). The tour has not kicked into overdrive at this stage with many players missing but expect Bradley Dredge, in good form of late, to give this event a shake. On the LPGA tour, Se Ri Pak and Karrie Webb head a strong field without Annika Sorenstam, so this should be a keenly contested affair. Defending champion Julie Inkster has been out of sorts in recent times and she will struggle to retain her title. Good value appears to be Patricia Meunier-Lebouc at $26, winner of this years Kraft Nabisco Open, and the consistent Lorie Kane at $34. RUGBY UNION With three rounds left in the Super 12 season, all but one team, the Cats, can mathematically make the Semi-finals. A tall order for six of these teams which can ill afford to drop a game and will need results to fall their way, but it does give added significance to this week's matches. First up the Highlanders host the Brumbies at the “house of pain”, Carisbrook, and are $1.60 fav while the Brumbies represent value at $2.30 and are receiving 3˝pts start. A loss here will significantly hurt the Brumbies chances of making the semis as they head to Wellington next week to face the in-form Hurricanes, followed by the Crusaders the following week in Canberra. Next game we have the greatest challenge of any club striving to keep play-off chances alive as the Sharks meet the Blues in Eden Park, Auckland. The Blues are prohibitive odds of $1.10 but more importantly punters have been happy to give 16˝pts start to the Sharks at $1.90, with consecutive wagers of $5000 placed on the Blues, one from a client from New Zealand and another from England. We then travel to Australia as the Reds host a hapless Cats outfit who are receiving 12.5pts start. This game will probably have little significance in the make-up of the finals and punters are treating it accordingly. We then head to South Africa on Saturday night where the Bulls must win to keep their chances alive against a Crusader team yet to find their feet, but must win to avoid a possible semi-final showdown against the Blues. The Crusaders give 6˝pts start at $1.90 but that has not swayed punters with over $20,000 placed at that price. The final game in Cape Town will spell the end of the season for one team as the Stormers host the erratic Chiefs. Good support for the Chiefs however with one bet of $5000 place at the win price of $2.75 and another $8000 at $1.90 receiving 7˝pts start. Most favourites at home appear hard to beat this week, with the possible exception of the Crusaders who will find the Bulls hard to toss in Pretoria. SOCCER The semi finalists for the Champions League are now known, and while there are three Italian sides left, it is Real Madrid, the Spaniards, who remain favourites at $2.10. Real have been favourites since betting opened, and while their form in the Primera Ligue hasn't been as good of recent times, they are a bad result for us and we expect that popularity to continue.. Real's match last night against Man United saw an unbelievable 4-3 scoreline in Man United's favour, with five of those goals coming in the second half. Man U were backed from an opening $2.10 into $2, but the Spanish side drew two bets of 5000 Euros when they touched $3.60. The under/over 2.5 goals saw a staggering amount of investments, with the largest of those being $15,000, from Asia, for the score to be 'under' at $2.15. An identical bet was placed on the 'under' in the AC Milan v Ajax game as well. This bet, from Italy, was taken at $1.70, but was also a loser when AC Milan won 3-2. The Italian side were solid in the betting at $1.65, and rounded off a pretty good quarter final series for punters with three of the four favourites winning, all being well supported. There hasn't been a terrible lot of joy for bookmakers over the past week on English football either, with most favourites saluting over the Easter break, but we are ready to take them on again this week! In contrast to recent times, we have seen plenty of action early for the upcoming round. Most of the big bets have come from Italy, including 20,000 Euros on Liverpool at $1.65 to beat West Bromwich, and 10,000 Euros on Newcastle ( $1.80 ) to beat Sunderland, and West Ham ( $2.90 ) to beat Man City. Just for good measure, a client from Singapore has had $9000 on Arsenal ( $1.65 ), who are away to Bolton, and of course we have a 'truck load' of money going through Man United ( $1.58 ) who will be away to the enigmatic Tottenham on Sunday night. United and Arsenal share favourtism at $1.85 to take the Premier League title, and if anything, there has been slightly more interest this week in Arsenal. Norwegian football followers had the better of us in the first round of football, but we fought back valiantly on the games played at the start of this week. Rosenborg however continue to be a thorn in our side, continuing on from last season, and we are finding that soccer fans from outside of Norway are even prepared to take the short odds for the Trondheim side. Last season, Rosenborg did sometimes struggle away, but they look much stronger this season, and that is an ominous warning for their opposition. On Monday, we priced them up at $1.65 when away to Brann, which at the time was possibly one of the shortest quotes around. We were looking for 'Brann money' but it didn't arrive, and in fact all the late money was for Rosenborg, which saw them start at $1.58. They led 6-0 before Brann got a late goal to give themselves some respectability, but with victories like that, punters better be prepared to take short odds for Rosenborg each week ! Valerenga were also well backed, landing one Norwegian punter a winning bet of 110,000 NOK ($ AUD 22,000) at $1.60 when they came from behind to beat Aalesund 3-1. Our 'big' results came when Sognal ( $2.85 ) defeated Bryne 1-0, and Viking held Tromso ($2.15) to a 2-2 draw. In Division One, Raufoss had a winning bet of 80,000 NOK placed on them at $1.85 to win, which the did, but the big Centrebet result for the round was Ham-Kam's loss to Mandelskameratene . This week in Norway, the big early betting has been centred around Sogndal ($2) who will host Tromso, Odd to beat Bryne at $1.38, and of course Rosenborg, who are now into $1.58 to beat Lyn. In Denmark, FCK have had a bet of 34,000 DKK placed on them at $1.67 to defeat Koge, while they have also been coupled up in big multiples with Brondby who are $1.53 to beat Midtjylland. Following on from FCK's shock 3-0 loss to Silkeborg last week, we have slashed Brondby's odds of winning the title into $2.10, with FCK out to $1.90. Farum continue to play well, and are a $9 chance. Until next week, good punting For
further information contact Gerard Daffy at Centrebet on 08 89555800 or
on centrebet@centrebet.com.
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