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Aussie
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Centrebet Capers
AUSTRALIAN RULES Punters got the better of bookies on the opening round of AFL with six of the eight favourites winning and one of the two 'outsiders', Richmond, being solidly supported to beat Collingwood. It was no great surprise to see Richmond thrash Collingwood by 40 points, they are capable of that, and invariably perform well when they aren't favourites. The Tigers had plenty of support at around the $2.12 mark, but on Friday drifted out to $2.20 after late money arrived for the Magpies. Included amongst those bets was one multiple of $65,000 for Collingwood, Fremantle and Brisbane to win, but the Magpies never really gave that punter any reason to think he might collect. Hawthorn put paid to poor pre-season form with a resounding 49 point win over Melbourne. Although Hawthorn shortened in the betting, it was a match where both sides were backed. Fremantle's 47 point win over Carlton lined the pockets of some of our bigger punters after we accepted bets of $20,000, $10,000 and $8000 for them to cover a spread of 35 points. We were very keen on the chances of Sydney against Brisbane on Saturday night, and we were only one decent kick away from getting the cash. The Swans went down by two points after Jason Ball duffed what appeared a relatively easy shot at goal which missed to the right hand side. The Lions did battle without Lynch and Brown, and we were surprised at the level of interest even though those two were out. The Lions ($1.33) were in nearly every multiple, we also took a win bet of $30,000, but we did get to hang on to three bets around the $5000 mark on Brisbane conceding 22½ points start. The St Kilda v Geelong game got under the guard of most as it was up against the Brisbane match, and that turned out in our favour as the Saints ($1.47) had a big win. That made it four favourites from the only four games on Saturday. What were we thinking when we gave Essendon a chance against Port Adelaide? The 'away' form of Essendon has been poor for 12 months, but Port's year finished in turmoil last season. Two bets of $20,000 ($1.90) were taken for Port conceding 18½ and 19½ points start, with the only comforting thing to come of it being that we didn't have to 'sweat it out' for the duration of the match, an embarrassing Essendon were 'gone' by half time. The Kangaroo's had a 75 point win over Adelaide in another game that saw little betting activity. There had been no interest in the Crows to win the premiership, make the eight, or win this game, and after watching it, it isn't hard to work out why! West Coast were a shade lucky to get away with a seven point win over the Bulldogs, but with the handicap set at -8½, it was another of those games where the favourite not covering the spread saw the bookies struggle out of the game. A week is a long time in football, and a quick glance at the second round sees Richmond as the shortest priced favourite (who would have thought that prior to last weeks games?). The Tigers are one of the most enigmatic teams on the planet, but a swag of early bets has already seen them shorten from $1.45 into $1.40. That is very poor value for a side who have always struggled to string wins together. To show how hard the second round is, taking all the favourites to win, using the opening prices, works out in excess of $43! With the games so close in betting, we haven't really seen too much early betting apart from $8000 for St Kilda to beat Essendon at $1.62, and $4000 for Port Adelaide ($2.15) to beat the West Coast. Injuries and travel are the key factors in nearly all games, so were aren't expecting any betting records to be broken on what appears a very tough fixture. Nothing major has happened with premiership betting, with all winners firming, and all losers ' easing '. We have taken bets of $5000 and $2500 this week for the Kangaroos at $3 to make the final eight, as well as another $10,000 for Fremantle at $1.60. Ben Cousins has been slashed to $9 favourite for the Brownlow following a best field performance against the Bulldogs, with Brisbane's Simon Black now the second pick in betting at $11 after his performance against the Swans. It's still early days yet, but if the first round form of some sides accounts for anything, Nathan Buckley, James Hird and Andrew McLeod, (who headed up the Brownlow betting), will be very hard to lay until punters are convinced that those sides are capable of being a force this season. RUGBY LEAGUE The season-ending injury to Andrew Johns has seen the odds for the Newcastle Knights nearly treble, out from $7 to $21, and if it wasn't for the fact that we had already taken a bet of $10,000 before the season started at $11, the price would be much longer. The importance of Johns is well known to all league enthusiasts, and while the Knights still have a more than competitive side on paper, Coach Michael Hagan pointed out a disturbing statistic the other night. He said that the Knights had won 57% of their matches last year without Johns, talking that up as a 'positive', but from a realistic point of view, that sort of record isn't going to win any premierships. The 38-34 loss by the Knights to Parramatta was the only result that bookies got last week, and even that was a battle as the Eels couldn't put the Knights away. Newcastle had been one of the better backed sides of the round, including two bets of $20,000 conceding 3½ points start. A strong push for North Queensland was unlucky not to come off when they went down to Canberra by one solitary point. Three bets of $20,000 were placed on the Cowboys to win, but the Raiders also had admirers, including one bet of $18,000 when they touched $1.80. We were prepared to acknowledge that this was the year for the Cowboys as they had such a good early draw, but for one reason or another, the start has been typical of years gone by. There were plenty of happy punters who collected on the 8 point win by Brisbane over Wests, and while those who backed the Tigers with the 6½ points start (four individual bets of $10,000) might feel aggrieved after Brisbane have been penalised for having too many on the field, that unfortunately is the way that the punt goes! Whatever the score is when the players leave the field is what is paid out on, and obviously on this occasion it worked to the benefit of most as the Bronco's had most of the big money placed on them, but as results could drag on for years in the courts, a 'finite' point in time is needed to pay out on a result, and the end of the game suits all. It wasn't a good day on Sunday as Brisbane covered their handicap, a well supported Melbourne smashed the Dragons, and most of Australia, and half of New Zealand, backed the Warriors to beat Penrith. Our Kiwi punters were right on the money on this occasion as there are definitely problems in the Warriors outfit, and they remain winless after three rounds. This week has been extremely quiet in early trading, but when you have a look at some of the sides who are short priced favourites, maybe we have scared a few off. On current form, it is little wonder that punters aren't stampeding in to take $1.55 New Zealand, $1.48 North Queensland, and $1.42 for both the Sharks and Dragons. On the other side of the coin however are facts and figures, and all have to be favourites. The fact that there has hardly been any interest in their respective opponents probably points towards the market being right, and that punters will play closer to the weekend. The only game that has seen action has been the replay of last years Grand Final. On that occasion Penrith went in as despised outsiders, but came away with the trophy. This time around they are again the underdogs at $2.25, but on a bet for bet basis, we have taken more for Penrith than the Roosters at the $1.65. While we concede that Penrith are one of the major chances this year, we are predicting a Roosters win. It is hard to ignore what they did to the Bulldogs last week, and Penrith have had a 'short' week, playing last Sunday in New Zealand, and having to back up on the Friday night. RUGBY UNION A dramatic conclusion to the Six Nations tournament saw France hold out a desperate England 24-21, after holding a 21-3 half-time lead. At a packed Stade de France, the French captured the Grand Slam courtesy of some artistic rugby in the first half and on the boot of Frederic Michalak managed to keep England in their own half long enough to conjure a dramatic victory. In other Six Nations games, Ireland was too organised for Scotland winning 37-16 while Wales gave Italy a lesson in Cardiff winning 44-10 on the back of some healthy wagers, two separate $10,000 bets from an English client conceding the 15½ points start, along with a host of wagers to win the game at $1.10. On the Super 12's front, punters got off to a poor start when the Hurricanes managed to force a 26 all draw with the Blues in Wellington. Several $5,000 wagers on the Blues conceding 5½ points start remained in the bag as most pundits believed the Blues 2004 season would get on track with a win over the unpredictable Hurricanes. The second game saw the Chiefs prove too strong for the Waratahs in Hamilton 32-17. The Waratahs with their third road trip game in a row failed to negotiate life without Matt Rogers and although Cameron Shepherd is a fine player they certainly missed Rogers constructive running. Other games failed to reach great heights as the Crusaders were too polished for the Highlanders 46-29 with some support for the Highlanders at 10½ points start failing to meet the mark, the Stormers too inventive for the Bulls in Cape Town 25-11 in what was a poor quality game while the Brumbies were simply too good for the Reds 51-8 in Canberra. This weeks round of matches will prove difficult again to predict, if not the winner then certainly the margin. First game to kick off has the Highlander hosting the Chiefs in Dunedin, with the loser certainly out of the running for a semi-finals berth. The Highlanders are 2½ point favourites and are $1.70 to win the game however our first wager was $5,000 on the Chiefs receiving the start which may reflect on the poor form the Highlanders have been showing this season. Second game is a cracker and has the two title favourites going at it in Christchurch, the Crusaders are 4½ point favourites at $1.90 and are solid in the betting at $1.58 to win the game, our first wager $10,000 from a New Zealand client at that price. Nevertheless the Brumbies have been in great form and the $2.35 will represent value to their many followers as we expect this to be the betting game of the season. Other games are not expected to produce too many surprises with the Hurricanes 12½ point favourites over an injury depleted Reds unit in Wellington, the loser also out of the running while the final game on Saturday evening has a winless Cats outfit travel to Durban to tackle the inform Sharks. The Sharks are $1.14 to win and must concede 16½ points start. The final game on Sunday has the Blues hosting the Waratahs in Auckland, the loser being all but assured that a semi final spot is out of reach. The Blues are $1.28 to win and are conceding 11½ points while the Waratahs are $3.65. The Blues with Spencer and Rokokoco returning should be too desperate for the Waratahs missing Rogers and Phil Waugh and with our first wager of $5,000 on the Blues conceding the start, it would not surprise to see them start even shorter. GOLF Adam Scott won his second PGA tour event in capturing The Players Championship and in doing so became the youngest ever winner of the event, oddly ten years after his golfing idol Greg Norman captured his Players Championship title. The victory catapulted Scott into the worlds top ten and signalled a warning to the elite players that a potential champion had emerged from his embryonic state. Our regular golf punter who backed Scott to win over $100,000 had little reason to be concerned in the final round as he had spread his two shot lead to five by the turn, but a superb inward nine by Irishman Padraig Harrington, including an eagle on 16 and birdie on 18, taking him to a clubhouse score of eleven under, turned up the heat on Scott. The young Australian remained unflappable in the run to the line, and although the pressure forced some uncharacteristic errors in missing three of the last four greens, including the water on eighteen, his silky short game, honed by his boyhood idol Greg Norman held hi in good stead as got up and down on each occasion. Scott’s victory also triggered a deluge of support for him to take his first green jacket at next weeks Masters, backed from $26 into $23. After finishing ninth at his debut in 2002 and given his recent good form the signs are that Augusta will present no fears for the talented Australian. Favourite is Tiger Woods at $5 from Els and Singh both $9 and Phil Mickelson at $10 while fellow Australian Stuart Appleby and in form Scott Verplank have been backed to win more than $100,000 at $51 and $67 respectively in early exchanges. There is little doubt that this will be one of the most hotly contested Masters for some time with Tiger Woods' tenure as king pin under even more intense pressure. The tour heads south to TPC at Sugarloaf for the BellSouth Classic where Phil Mickelson, fresh from a tie for third at last weeks Players Championship, is favourite at $6.75 from Scott and defending Masters Champion Mike Weir both at $13, then comes Padraig Harrington at $15 from Bjorn and DiMarco both backed to win $50,000, $21 in from $26. The tournament tends to lack depth after the top end of betting, and with players thinking more about next weeks' Masters perhaps a surprise result such as last years winner Ben Crane may be in the mix. Others well supported include Stewart Cink at $34, Rory Sabbatini, $61 and Robert Gamez at $81, all highlighting the fact that punters may be on a similar wave length. On the European tour Sweden's Christopher Hanell won his first European tour title when he captured a weather marred Madeira Island Open at Santo da Serra. Hanell closed with a one under par 71 to overhaul Australia Brad Kennedy, whose third round, eight over 80 put pay to easy final day stroll. The tournament lacked big names due to the Players Championship in the States and so is the case this week as we head to Portugal for the Algarve Portuguese Open. Four players have the opportunity to become the first on tour taste success for the second time this season, Siem, Jiminez, Haeggman and last weeks winner, Hanell. Jiminez shares favourtism with consistent Frenchman Raphael Jacquelin at $13 from Bradley Dredge and Haeggman at $16 while best backed has been Englishman Greg Owen at $21. If last weekends event is any indication then we may see another surprise winner in what is a difficult tournament to predict. On the LPGA tour we witnessed a stunning finale to the first major of the year, the Kraft Nabisco Championship where Korean Grace Park held on to a one shot victory, courtesy of a birdie on the final hole from seventeen year old rookie Aree Song. Four players appeared to have a winning opportunity on the final day with two shots separating them, Park, Song, Australian Karrie Webb and fourteen year old Michelle Wie. All players finished with sub par rounds on a tension filled final day indicating that all handled the pressure admirably, but it was Park who fired best peppering the flag in a dramatic stretch between the eighth and twelfth holes. Coming to eighteen she held a two shot lead, assuming par would give her victory, she hit a perfect three wood to the middle of the par five fairway. What transpired was ten minutes of unparalleled courage and skill. Song realizing eagle was her only hope for victory opted for driver which she unduly spanked 260 metres down the middle. Park then immediately laid up with her second knowing she was too far out to take on the water in front of the eighteenth green. Rookie Song, knowing she was within range hit a sublime three wood to the heart of the green which then tricked down the slop to within fifteen feet of the pin. With the pressure back on Park she then replied with a Championship winning wedge to 6 feet. The heroics didn't finish there however as Song sank her eagle putt the pressure back to Park. In true Champions style she holed her putt to end one of the best quality finishes to a golf tournament, on any tour, for some time. A similar field assembles this week for the Office Depot Championship with Sorenstam again favourite at an attractive quote of $2.75, however with the return to form of Webb and Se Ri Pak, the emergence of Grace Park as a true champion and the young talents of Aree Song and Michelle Wie, the LPGA tour has never been in better shape. CRICKET The third and final Test between Sri Lanka and Australia had everyone on the edge of their seats until Australia finished of the Sri Lankan's with eight balls to spare. Last week we made mention of how it seemed that the 'draws' were always under the odds, and that we had taken some big money on this particular test ending in a draw. The draw was always in calculations for the entire five days, with both Sri Lanka and Australia attracting bets at different stages. Even though the Aussies held the upper hand coming into the last day, $2.45 was freely available as the money from overseas was for the draw at $1½5. When tea was taken, Australia needed six wickets to wrap the game up, and at that stage the task looked unrealistic at the end of a long tour. We posted Australia at $5.25, taking two bets of $400, and again displaying a 'never say die attitude', Australia's attacking style of play put paid to another well backed 'draw'. South Africa won the third Test against New Zealand in Wellington to square that series away, and this was another match that saw money for a draw, although not to the extent of some other recent matches. This time the money for the draw ($5000 and $4000) came from New Zealand, but it was evident on day three that the draw was unlikely to occur. Centrebet are also covering the current tours of the West Indies and Pakistan. Betting will be updated at the completion of each days play in the Tests between the West Indies and England, and also Pakistan and India. ELECTIONS The 'honeymoon' period for the Labor party might be coming to an end if Council elections in Queensland and New South Wales are any indication. While municipal politics are not as party orientated as they are at a State or Federal level, the trend away from Labor candidates in those two elections last weekend would be of concern to Opposition leader Mark Latham. That has caused some reaction in the betting ring this week as we have written a series of bets of $5000, $2000 and $1500 for the Coalition to be re-elected later in the year. They remain at $1.70, and will probably stay that way quote for awhile yet as punters keep peppering away at the $2 for Labor. Last week, following another positive poll for Mark Latham, a Victorian client placed $8000 on Labor at $2, so perhaps the market currently available is a true reflection of how close it is. BASKETBALL The three matches played to date in the NBL Grand Final series may not have produced the best basketball of the season but it has certainly been an enthralling series that has improved with each game as the stakes have gotten higher and the tension has mounted. From a betting perspective the story has been the punters have got it wrong three times out of three. West Sydney were the best supported team in Game 1 but punters have deserted them since much to their dismay as they have come back strongly to take a 2-1 lead in the series and now return home to attempt to finish the Kings. They lead the series because the Kings haven't been able to establish a presence down low. It is telling that the Kings have put up more three point attempts than the Razorbacks which goes against the way these sides have played all season. The Kings need to quickly realise they are not going to beat the Razorbacks from beyond the 3 point line. The wildcard in the series has been David Pennisi. Davis who? You may well ask as before the series he was known only to the West Sydney faithful. He has gone from 5 minutes in Game 1 to 25 and 28 minutes in the next two games and it is no coincidence that they are the games West Sydney have won. His presence inside the paint is exactly what the Kings don't have. This series has been highlighted by very low scoring games. Totals of 172, 159 and 162 (132 in regulation time) have been indicative of dominating defences. However the offences came alive in overtime of Game 3 and scored at a rate that equates to a 288 point game and whilst we are not going to see that, Game 4 should produce a lot more points. As good as the defence has been the scoring capabilities of these teams were shown in O/T and I think they are overdue to go on with it. BASEBALL The Yankees are $3½0 favourites to win the World Series, but it has been the famous Chicago Cubs ($8), Philadelphia ($16) and San Diego ($34) who are the big firmers in our futures book. One of our Norwegian clients who bets exclusively on American sports took the $9 for the Cubs, backing them to win just under 125,000 NOK ($AUD 25,000). The Phillies have been backed to win a similar amount by a group of Canadians, while a new account holder from Mexico has backed the Padres to win $USD25,000 at the big odds. Last Tuesday, the new season got under way with a game in Tokyo between the Yankees and Tampa Bay. These matches rarely see any big action as they are played in a different country, in a different time zone etc, but you wouldn't know as we took a series of large bets. The biggest of those was $50,000 bet from an Australian client for the Yankees to win at $1.42, while another Aussie placed $7000 on the run total falling under 9½. Tampa Bay got the season off to a spectacular start for bookies when the won easily 8-0. SOCCER The scoring feats of three footballers made headlines across Europe at the weekend and, as luck would have it, our punters benefited from the exploits of Jimmy Floyd Hasselbaink, Roy Makaay and Mohammed Zidan. Hasselbaink came off the substitutes' bench - the Chelsea forward replaced Geremi on the hour mark - to score a hat-trick against Wolverhampton and become the 12th player to reach the milestone of 100 English Premier League goals. The Blues were heading for a draw and a costly result for our clients until Hasselbaink notched three times in 12 minutes. The other Premier League centurions are Andrew Cole, Dion Dublin, Les Ferdinand, Robbie Fowler, Thierry Henry, Matthew Le Tissier, Michael Owen, Alan Shearer, Teddy Sheringham, Ian Wright and Dwight Yorke. The odds are against Bayern retaining the German Bundesliga title but Makaay is not allowing that to spoil his season. Our punters backed Makaay to score for Bayern versus Monchengladbach and that he did from the penalty spot three minutes into the second period of the top-against-bottom clash. Makaay's spot kick set a new season record for the German championship as the former Golden Boot winner is the first footballer to notch in five consecutive matches this term. Carsten Jancke was the last Bayern player to score in six successive league games. He did so in 2000. Denmark's Superliga resumed a few weeks ago. FC Midtjylland lost its first two matches following the three-month winter break but the club bounced back to form with a 6-0 home defeat of AB in which Zidan found the net five times. AaB's Soren Andersen and Brondby's Bo Hansen are the only other footballers to score five goals in a Superliga fixture over the past 10 years. Our punters thought that Zidan would find the back of AB's net at least once and backed him on one of our popular will/will not score markets. But surely they did not think that the Egyptian striker would bag five. We rate Portsmouth's chances of avoiding relegation from the Premier League at 50-50 after Harry Redknapp's team beat Blackburn 2-1 to claim its first away win of the season. Teddy Sheringham and Aiyegbeni Yakubu scored Pompey's goals at Ewood Park that earned the south coast side its first road victory at the 16th attempt, Portsmouth is two points above the dreaded drop zone and plays five of its last eight games at Fratton Park where its form is relatively good. Unfortunately, Arsenal and Manchester United are two of its guests. Leeds, Leicester and Wolverhampton are our favourites to fill the three relegation positions when the season concludes on May 16. Norwich and West Bromwich are our tips for automatic promotion but the play-off spot looks up for grabs. Ronaldo bagged a brace as our Spanish Primera Liga title favourite Real Madrid maintained its one-point advantage over Valencia in the most competitive of European soccer's top domestic leagues. The Meringues beat Sevilla 5-1 in Madrid to end their three-game winless streak in the Spanish top flight. Real's main rival produced an equally fine display to defeat Racing 3-0 away from home. Roma wasted a golden opportunity to close the gap on Italian Serie A leader Milan. The Giallorossi lost 2-1 to Bologna in the Eternal City on the same day that the Rossoneri drew 2-2 with Chievo. Bayern defeated Monchengladbach 5-2 in Munich to narrow Bremen's Bundesliga lead to nine points with just eight rounds remaining. The championship jolly shared eight goals with Stuttgart. Champions League title holder Milan is our new tournament favourite following the 4-1 victory of Carlo Ancellotti's team in the first leg of its quarter-final tie against Deportivo. The Rossoneri are the first club to dislodge Real Madrid from the top spot on our Champions League betting list this season. We trimmed Real's title odds but slashed those of the Italian side. It is odds on that Milan will meet Porto in one Champions League semi-final and that Arsenal will face the Meringues in the other high-profile tie. Valencia is our UEFA Cup market leader ahead of the four quarter-finals.
Until next week, good punting. For
further information contact Gerard Daffy at Centrebet on 08 89555800 or
centrebet@centrebet.com.
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