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Aussie
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Centrebet Capers
A thousand cliché’s could be rolled out to describe Richmond's performance against Melbourne last Friday night, but possibly the most appropriate from a betting perspective would be to "keep away from bad teams at bad odds". The Tigers went in as one of the best backed sides of the past few seasons, firming from $1.45 into $1.33. We couldn't give Melbourne away, and it wasn't a wad of big bets for Richmond, it was just that the multitudes couldn't see them being beaten. The biggest bet we took was a bet of $80,000 as the first leg of a double into Collingwood at -11½ points (which also lost), and we also took six individual bets of $10,000 for Richmond to win at the long odds on. One of those punters rang back at half time when Melbourne held a lead of 45 points and had $10,000 on Melbourne at $1.10. He couldn't win either way, but at least he broke the original loss down by $1000. The Bulldogs still can't win a close match, and while Collingwood's 9 point victory over the Bulldogs was costly for us from a 'win' point of view, their failure to cover the 11½ point handicap definitely helped. Those who took the -11½ would have endured a frustrating last minute as Collingwood had the ball in their half of the ground but were content to run the clock down. Adelaide, Essendon and Port Adelaide went into their games on Saturday as very well supported underdogs, with only Port able to come away with the points over the West Coast. Apart from Richmond, Carlton was the other best backed side of the round. The Blues were trying to break the 'return from the west' hoodoo, but Geelong had four of their bigger names out. When the Geelong side was named on Thursday, we immediately saw two $20,000 bets for Carlton at $1.90, and they eventually started at $1.75. Carlton aren't going to win the premiership this year, but they will cause some sides some trouble at home. Rain in Sydney saw late money for Fremantle after we had spent four days taking bets for the Swans, and while their wasn't much in the game for t he first half, Sydney opened up late in the game to win by 29 points. Fremantle attracted bets of $14,000 and $USD 5000 with 15 points start on Sunday morning, but that was nowhere near enough to cover what devout Swans fans had placed on their side. The start to this season for the Kangaroos has been similar to last year where the critics said they would be no good, yet to date they have racked up two impressive victories. Although they were the outsiders against Hawthorn ($2.25), this game didn't grab the attention of punters as it was up against two televised games. This week, there are seven red hot favourites playing at home, and the first of those, Brisbane ($1.22) play Collingwood on Thursday night in a replay of the last two Grand Finals. The Lions have gone in and won the first two games missing Alastair Lynch and Jonathon Brown. With those two forwards back and Luke Power also returning, and assessing Collingwood's form during the first two rounds, this might be a real flogging. That thinking is reflected in the betting, and the Lions have been the anchor leg in nearly all major multi’s for the weekend. We have also taken two bets of $5000 on them to beat a 29 point handicap. Sydney are even shorter at $1.15 to thrash Geelong on Sunday, with the minus handicap (35½) also attracting early bets of $7300 and $6000. Favourite backers are in their element this week as Port ($1.22) have also been easy to sell against Hawthorn, both to win and cover a handicap of 26½ points start, but we think that the Hawks can make a game of this one. St Kilda are the talk of the town recently, and on form deserve the $1.40 tag we have bestowed upon them against Richmond on Monday, but the Tigers can be competitive here, and look good value, especially with 18 points start. Brisbane haven't moved in premiership betting at $3, but Port Power fans have been active this week. Three bets of $2000 have come for Port at $6, and amazingly we have taken a bet of $3000 for Collingwood at $10 before they travel to Brisbane. A $5000 bet taken last week from Adelaide for the Kangaroos to make the eight at $3 is looking good after two rounds, while Warren Tredrea has been the big mover this week in the Brownlow, now a $15 chance after another best on field performance. RUGBY LEAGUE There were a couple of upsets last weekend, and one of those, Souths over Cronulla, wasn't totally unexpected by punters. We had to shorten up Souths from their opening quote of $2.80 into $2.60 as we were dealing with the normal run of bets from Souths supporters, but we found it difficult to strike a blow with Cronulla. After watching the game, it wasn't hard to see why, and until the Sharks can get some discipline into their game, they are going to be hard to sell when favourites. Penrith continued on their merry way, disposing of the Roosters 22-6. Finally, punters are rallying behind the Panthers, and in a great betting game, we eventually came out on the wrong side of the ledger even though Penrith were the $2.25 underdogs. North Queensland continued their horror start to season 2004 when beaten 181-8 by Wests in Townsville. This game wasn't televised, which saw the holdings well down, but those who did bet took the short odds for a Cowboys win, probably the last time many will line up to do so! All three favourites won on Sunday, which landed one Sydney punter a collect of $63,000 from a $20,000 outlay. One leg, Brisbane, looked in awful trouble when they trailed Melbourne 18-10 at half time, and at the major break we had Melbourne the favourites at $1.60. The Storm had two long term injuries which meant that they couldn't do much with their bench, and in the end that took its toll as they went down 34-26. If it wasn't enough that Newcastle would be without Andrew Johns for the season, they lost more players in the lead up to last Sunday's match against St George Illawarra, and that saw the Knights humiliated 28-2. Luckily for us that the inconsistent Dragons form meant that punters had decided to keep away from them, as the biggest bet taken was only $9000 for them to cover the handicap of 7½ points. A really good late push saw the Warriors go in as an ordinary result for us against Manly, and although the Eagles were in the race at half time (4-6), the floodgates opened in the second have which saw the Warriors go on and win 28-10. Two bets of $20,000 were placed on the Kiwi's conceding 5 points start, as well as numerous smaller bets. This week, a depleted Roosters side will host Brisbane on Friday night. We still think that they will be too good, but the money, including a win bet of $13,800, has been for Brisbane, now into $2.10 after opening at $2.20. New Zealand are $1.18 to beat Newcastle on Saturday, and that has been popular through the multi's. We have been trying to 'lay' Cronulla against the Cowboys on Saturday night, but that is easier said than done. In days gone by, backing Cronulla at home, and at night, was like picking up money off the ground, but those days are gone. So far, we have taken two bets of $2000 for the Sharks at -7½, but we are looking for a great deal more than that. Of the three Sunday matches, the early money has been for Penrith. The Panthers are $1.33 to beat Melbourne, or -9½ . Melbourne thrashed Penrith in both meetings last year, so it will be interesting to see what happens here. Punters are predicting that that will change as we have already taken bets of $12,000 and $10,000 for Penrith conceding the start. Easter Monday will see a very interesting match-up between Parramatta and Souths. The good form of Souths, and the bad form of the Eels, has given us a match were bets are coming at a great rate for both sides, Parra at $1.42 and Souths at $2.80. The Eels continue to attract plenty of criticism, but surely if they can't beat Souths at home, they may as well write of any aspirations they have of making this years finals. While on Souths, there were plenty who thought that backing the Rabbitohs to win the wooden spoon was easy money, but following an impressive win over Cronulla, they have been displaced as favourites to run last by Manly ($2.75). North Queensland are also in the thick of things now at $5.50, but the pressure is really going to be on the 'new look' Manly side to produce, and soon. A $10,000 bet for the Roosters last week to win the premiership at $3 was timely for us prior to them being beaten by Penrith, as the Roosters are now out to $3.40, with Penrith in to $4.25. We also took a bet of $38,000 for the Roosters to finish 'top four' at $1.30, and that option is now out to $1.35. ENTERTAINMENT Popstars Live hasn't generated the huge viewing audience that Australian Idol did, but it has generated a lot of talk, and also a lot of betting. Things are beginning to heat up now with eight acts left, and it seems as though the Australian public have fallen in love with Delta Goodrem look alike Miranda Murphy. The 16 year old has the looks, but more importantly has the voice, and she has been an odds on favourite ($1.80) to win, and that has been taken. If Popstars takes the course that other 'phone ins' take, then she may well be under the odds as these type of things are always dominated by males, due mainly to the high numbers of female voters. For that reason, Kane Taylor is a close second pick at $3.50, and this week he is the one who has attracted most of the bets, which are mostly small. Sarah Gardner ($13) is the other singer who has had several bets placed on her this week, but while there is little doubt she can sing, she is a very nervous type, and! that might be a negative when we get down to the last few singers. We are also currently covering Norwegian Idol, and with Kurt Nilsen the new 'World 'Idol', we have more than a passing interest in who wins this time in Norway. Naturally we don’t have coverage in Alice Springs, but our price analysts in Norway won’t hear of Maria Haukaas Storeng being beaten, and punters agree. She has been favourite since betting opened, but money came for all other contestants. This week, she is now $1.40, and we have taken nearly 50,000NOK ($AUD 10,000) in bets that has seen the book become nicely balanced. GOLF Tiger Woods failed to win a Major last year for the first time since 1998, but does that mean Tiger is 'gone'? Well we will know the answer to that this time next week, but Tiger fans have been helping themselves to the $5 on offer in this week’s US Masters, the best price he has been in a Major for some time. We have taken two $10,000 bets for Tiger at those odds, but with Tiger's failure to dominate golf like he did 2-3 years ago, there has been a shift away from him by many of our larger golf punters, and some who haven't bet for a while have returned to bet against the great man. Ernie Els and Phil Mickelson are next in line at $9. Eels has been backed in a single bet to win $100,000 ($12,000 outlay), while a Queensland client has had $5000 each way perennial majors placegetter Mickelson. A Sydney based golf enthusiast has backed Vijay Singh ($11), Davis Love ($17), and Stuart Appleby ($41) each to win $200,000 in a single bet, while another Sydneysider has backed Padraig Harrington to win $125,000 with a bet of $5000 each way at $21. The big betting doesn’t stop there, as several other outsiders have attracted some serious attention, including Scott Verplank ($1000 each way at $67), Stewart Cink ($1500 each way at $126) and Jose Maria Olazabal ($500 each way at $101). 2003 Masters winner Mike Weir has been in good form this year, and although the left hander is well in the betting at $23, he has been ignored. The biggest bet for Weir has been only $300 each way, quite surprising as we always see solid support for defending champions. Adam Scott is a different story however. He is on the same line of betting at $23, and he has been backed to take out close to $100,000 by his throng of supporters. Scott's recent win in the Players Championship stamped him as a player of the future (if he wasn't already), and proved with a tie for ninth in 2002 as a 21 year old that he can stand the pressure. Good players win Majors, and while he is yet to win one, this might be the year for Mickelson. He has been placed third the past three years, and from 46 starts in a Major, he has finished top 10 on 17 occasions. His current form includes a win at the Chrysler Classic and five top 10 finishes from his last six starts, and with Tiger not having the best of years so far, this is Mickelson's big chance to break his 'bridesmaid' status. BASKETBALL It wasn't the highest quality basketball of the play-offs but the five game series between the two Sydney clubs to decide the NBL Championship had it all. In one sense Simon Dwight's quote before the series commenced that the Kings were arrogant came back to haunt the Razorbacks as there was a touch of arrogance in the way the Kings buried their opposition 18-0 in the final three minutes to claim the Championship again, after neither team had been able to assert any meaningful ascendancy in the preceding 242 minutes. Regular readers of this section will note that the prediction for this series was Sydney Kings 3-2 with one game going to overtime. Need I say more? This series will go a long way to intensify the rivalry between the Sydney clubs and develop a basketball culture in Sydney. In excess of 9000 witnessed game 5 but apart from the hard-core faithful most didn't care who won as Sydney was the winner before the series began. If a Melbourne or Brisbane side can get to the Grand Final then a Sydney side winning it will really mean something and the "sold out" sign will go up early at the Entertainment Centre. If it is West Sydney who get there again the NBL must direct them to move their home games from the quaint State Sports Centre to a venue that can hold the fans who will want to see it. The down-sizing of the league has meant that they have not been required to shift to a larger venue as their original licence conditions stipulated, but the re-emergence of the sport will be hindered if they insist on staying put at Homebush. How different could it have been for Brian Goorjian and the NBL if the owners of the Victoria Giants hadn't decided, in their wisdom, that he was not the man for them? Two Championships speak for themselves but what he is has done for the promotion of basketball and the NBL, in Australia's biggest market, cannot be quantified. Sydney Kings management want to sign him for life and the Victoria Giants are no more. Fair to say that Sydney was a good career move. ELECTIONS The Australian Federal election is yet to be called, and we wouldn't normally be writing about election betting every week, but this upcoming election is at an intriguing stage. There has been a lot of speculation about an early call by Mr. Howard, and that has instilled a fair bit of confidence in the Coalition this week. For the first time in two months, the pendulum has definitely swung in the Coalition's favour after a barrage of betting saw Labor's odds slashed from $4 when Mark Latham took over at the helm, into as short as $2 last week. Even at that price they were marketable, including bets of $3000 and $2000, but this week a couple of well respected political punters have stepped in and backed the Coalition. The first bet, $20,000, was taken at $1.70, then another $10,000 came in a few hours later at $1.65. Betting on elections is like walking down a dark alley, you never know what is going to happen next! Pre-empting what politicians are going to do or say, or which way the market will go is very difficult to deal with, and even though John Howard recorded an emphatic victory last time, there was a stage where he was the $3.50 outsider before starting election day at $1.25. Whatever happens over the next few months, one thing is for certain, this will be our biggest betting 'event' for the year. RUGBY UNION Unfortunately, two of this week's Super 12 matches will be played when we are closed on Good Friday (one of the two days of the year we shut down), and those two matches will see two of the competition heavyweights in the Blues and the Brumbies play at home, at prohibitive odds. Neither game has seen a lot of trading, and with both quoted at $1.18 to win, the only serious money has been through multi's. The Blues have had a few injuries, and there has been a spattering of support for the Bulls with 14½ points start, including one bet of $4000 from South Africa. Before the season started, the experts claimed that the Bulls were far and away the best side in South Africa, but on the form displayed so far, that is a long way from the truth. The Brumbies host the Highlanders, and like the first game, a fair amount of interest centres around the outsider with 15.5 points start. Bets of $3000 and two of $2000 have been placed on the Highlanders, but the ACT side are a class act at home and should handle that impost. Quite a good betting game is eventuating on Saturday evening between the Reds and the Stormers. The Queenslanders have again had a disappointing season, and go into this game riddled with injuries. The powerful Stormers side have proven a handful over recent weeks, and will never get a better opportunity to chalk up a win on Australian soil. The $1.80 for the Reds has been taken by our Queensland clients, but the betting there has been overshadowed by a general opinion that the $2 for the Stormers, who have preparing in Brisbane all week, is over the odds. The most important game of the round will see the Sharks at home to the Crusaders. The Sharks are a chance of making the semi's as all of their remaining games are at home, and the Crusaders can justify their elevation to equal title favourites by scoring a win. The Crusaders (along with the Blues), have a relatively cosy run home, and if they win this week look a strong chance to finish at the top of the table. We originally rated the Crusaders a little shorter than the $1.65 on offer, but there has been a reluctance shown by punters to back sides travelling to South Africa, so we settled on $1.65. Apart from a few punters from New Zealand who religiously back the Crusaders, all betting has been for the Sharks, including $4000 to win at $2.20, and nearly $9000 also coming for them with 3½ points start. SOCCER Thank heavens that our punters backed the losing side in each of the English FA Cup semi-final matches because they did not miss a trick on the Premier League programme, lumping large sums of money on Chelsea, Leeds, Liverpool and Newcastle collecting maximum points from their games against Tottenham, Leicester, Blackburn and Everton. That the Blues beat Spurs was not a surprise as Chelsea is Tottenham's bogey team. Stupidly we posted an attractive price on the Blues winning at White Hart Lane and extending their unbeaten sequence in top-flight fixtures versus Spurs to 28 matches. Yes, your eyes are not deceiving you and we are not telling porky pies. Not since December 1990 has Chelsea lost a Premier League/Division One derby against its rival from the English capital. Keep that incredible statistic in mind for next season's first meeting between the Blues and Tottenham. Another Premier League fixture that is lopsided in favour of one club is Manchester United against Everton. The Toffees beat the Red Devils in the 1995 FA Cup final at Wembley Stadium but since then United has won 16 and drawn two of its 18 games versus the Merseyside club. Chelsea triumphing over Spurs did not shock our punters but we cannot say the same about Claus Lundekvam's goal for Southampton in its defeat of Wolverhampton. The Norwegian defender is a cult figure in our office because, before Saturday's match at Molineux, he had not scored a Premier League goal in eight seasons with the Saints. We did not think that we could offer a sufficiently large price on Lundekvam scoring in a top-flight fixture but we may have to revise our judgement. After all, the law of averages says that the former Brann centre-half will add to his tally shortly. Until next week, good punting. For further information contact Gerard Daffy at Centrebet on 08 89555800 or centrebet@centrebet.com.
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