|
|
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
Aussie
Rules
|
Centrebet Capers
AUSTRALIAN RULES What a difference one player can make! Essendon were friendless in betting at $2.15 against the West Coast following the two week suspension handed out to full forward Matthew Lloyd, but things turned around completely when Lloyd's appeal was successful. We wound the Bombers in to $2, taking two bets of $20,000, and they eventually were backed into marginal favourites at $1.88. Ironically, Lloyd made all the difference with an 8 goal effort, which saw Essendon get home by one goal in a terrific match. It was a very bleak round of football for bookies as all eight winners started favourites. As pointed out, Essendon started favourites, Melbourne were an easing favourite against the Bulldogs, and the other six matches all went to the red hot fancies. Our computers had to work overtime when paying out the final match as many took advantage of coupling up all the 'shorties' in multiples, and although all six won, we consider ourselves a shade unlucky. Both the Kangaroos and the Swans were in a position to lose (as were Essendon, Melbourne and Fremantle), and all we wanted was any one of them to go over, but it wasn't to be. Possibly the most fortunate punter of the round was one of the biggest. He had a $40,000 multiple of Brisbane, Kangaroos and Sydney to win ($1.85), and would have had heart palpitations in the dying minutes of the final two matches. Another big one that we got to hang on to was a bet of $30,000 for the Roos, Sydney and Cronulla in the NRL (price of $2.22), but this punters luck ran out with Cronulla, who were humiliated by North Queensland. This week's AFL is back to what we are used to, that is a very difficult round. Injuries, form, and the Tribunal have made it an even bigger task, so much so that the price for all eight fav's winning was around the 60/1 mark when betting opened! Carlton will line up against old foe Essendon on Friday night, and this is one game that the underdogs can win. The Blues are $2.70, and were really unlucky to be beaten by the Kangaroos last week. We still have a huge question mark hanging over Essendon. Last week they kicked the first eight goals, but the West Coast got back into the game and hit the front in the last quarter, only to go down thanks to a goal to James Hird. The West Coast played most of the game without ruckman Michael Gardiner, and when he hasn't played before, the Eagles struggle, so the form might not be that good. Anyway, the Bombers are going to carry a lot of public money as we have already taken bets of $9000 and $6000 at $1.45, and being a 'Friday night favourite', will carry a small fortune in multiples. Port Adelaide have been impressive to date, but we also rate Melbourne a strong chance of causing an upset against them on Saturday. Port have been very easy to lay at $1.40, and we are keen to take them on conceding 20½ points start. They come into this game having lost Matthew Primus for the season, and Melbourne have enjoyed two good wins in a row. Brisbane travel to Perth on Saturday, and that part of the world hasn't been a happy hunting ground for the Lions over the past three years. That aside, the loss of Gardiner is a huge blow to the West Coast, and while many disagree, we have posted them as outsiders at $2.10. Either Mark Thompson or Danny Frawley will be breathing a sigh of relief around 10pm on Saturday night somebody has to win the match between Geelong and Richmond! Both coaches are under the pump at the moment, and while you would need to have a good sense of humour to back either side, it surprisngly has been a good betting match. The bigger players are keeping well away, but we have taken more individual bets on this game than any other, and for both sides. The Kangaroos got a fright last week, as did the Swans, and what a game this should be when they line up against each other at Manuka on Sunday. Betting opened at $1.90 either side, and we are happy for punters to take their pick, and whatever we get left with will do, it is just too hard to pick. If Essendon still have a query hanging over them, what about Collingwood? The Pies' solitary win was against the lowly Bulldogs, and with Tarrant and Wakelin out of business, they look ripe for the picking on Sunday against Fremantle. The Dockers 'away' form is not good, but this is their big chance, and that is why we are chasing the Magpies. There was much better odds given around the country than the $2.10 we had for Freo, but that has disappeared. The $1.75 for Collingwood was taken by two Sydney punters with $10,000 and $6500 respectively, but the interest has dropped off for the time being. Port Adelaide and St Kilda are premiership firmers this week, into $4.75 and $6.50 respectively. There has been money for both, and still nothing for Brisbane at $2.75. The Lions have a reasonably tough draw over the next six weeks, but if they can get through that period relatively unscathed, they will shorten very quickly. RUGBY LEAGUE A nationwide plunge was landed when North Queensland beat Cronulla 36-10 on Saturday night. Cronulla were one of our 'risks' of the round, and while we spent three days chasing their price out, we were fortunate enough to get some healthy bets out of them, including one of $8000 at $1.45. In the final 2 hours before the game closed, we had the Sharks out to $1.52, with the Cowboys into $2.50, a price which seemed short enough considering they were winless! It was at this stage that it became obvious that the price for North Queensland had evaporated all around us as we took 'win' bets of $8000 and $5000 at $2.50, as well as just under $28,000 for them with 6½ points start. Watching the game, it was hard to believe that this was the same side who had been beaten three times at home, but how often have we seen the Cowboys do something similar? That was an upset that probably cost most bookies some money, but with only four favourites winning (with only two of those covering), it was a round that clearly went to the bagmen. The Newcastle Knights came away from Auckland with an unexpected win when they defeated the Warriors 34-20. The Warriors are a shadow of the team that was so dominant at home over the past two seasons, and while there was a sprinkling of money for Newcastle (including a bet of $3000 at $4.40), the bigger money was for New Zealand. Sunday saw all three favourites salute, but only the Dragons were able to cover the handicap. Their 39-10 win over Wests didn't cost us too much as we found there were plenty of admirers for the Tigers with 6 points start. Both Penrith ($1.33) and the Bulldogs ($1.14) had what should have been unreachable half time leads in their matches against Melbourne and Manly, but both went perilously close to being beaten. As we pointed out last week, we gave Melbourne a good chance to beat Penrith, and there were any amount of takers for Penrith conceding 9½ points start. One of the first best for the week was $12,000 on that line, and that was followed by another two bets of $10,000. Penrith are the team to beat this year, but the Storm are going to cause a lot of headaches. When the Bulldogs led Manly 16-0, it looked a matter of 'how far' for the Bulldogs, but the second half saw a Manly revival which nearly resulted in a win. As it was, the Bulldogs hung on to win 28-26, a real scare for the hundreds of punters who coupled up the $1.14 chances in multiples. The real Parramatta stepped forward on Monday when the thrashed Souths 41-20, and while the Eels were short priced favourites ($1.45), this was a game were betting was split between the two sides. This week, an intriguing game will confront punters first cab off the rank. The Bulldogs will play New Zealand in Wellington, a 'home' game for the 'Dogs. This has become a regular event for them, and hasn't posed too many fears in the past, and really shouldn't this week as the Warriors are struggling with injury. Having said that though, early trading has been slanted towards the Warriors, including three bets of $2000 at $2.40. Of the bets taken so far for the Warriors, it has been interesting to note that none of them have come from New Zealand, so it would seem that they share our view on the game. Punters hopped straight into the -5½ Canberra are conceding to the Sharks. Bets of $12,000 and $8000 were taken, but the handicap is still there. Surely the Sharks can't be that bad, and Canberra are coming off the bye. The ring of confidence isn't there just yet for another Cowboys win this week, but there has been a little bit of interest to say that they can beat Brisbane on Saturday night. We have taken a handful of bets at $2.65, and if they turn on a display like they did last week, they can come away with the points. It looks a danger game for Brisbane, and is being treated that way by punters as there hasn't been a flood of money as yet for the favourites. Melbourne have been fairly easy to lay at -12½ over Souths in early trading, but this time of the year there is always a possibility of bad weather in Melbourne, so there is no need to panic just yet. St George v Penrith should be a good battle, and the Panthers go in as slight fav's in a moderate betting game at $1.80. The main betting game on Sunday looks like Newcastle (returning to a refurbished Energy Stadium) who will be up against an injury riddled Roosters. Those two points mean a good argument can be put up for either side, and while there has been money for both, the Knights have been slightly more popular with the 4½ points start. The Roosters may have lost their last two matches, but they are still title favourites at $3.75, narrowly ahead of Penrith at $4. MOTOR BIKES We will get to see how good Valentino Rossi really is when he lines up on a Yamaha in Sunday's South African Grand Prix, the first for the new season. Rossi had enjoyed three titles in four years on a Honda, but shocked many by going to Yamaha, who haven't won a title since Wayne Rainey won back in 1993. Rossi has been the quickest in trailing sessions at Catalunya, but some of those sessions were conducted on wet tracks, so a doubt must hang over those performances. There is one thing however that is clear, Rossi is a great rider, and if anyone can ride a Yamaha to victory it is him. For that reason, Rossi has been installed favourite to win this week at $3. Naturally we don’t expect to see any big early action until we all get a look at what the off season has provided for each team, but we have already seen plenty of small bets come in fro Rossi, just because of what he has done in the past. Sete Gibernau had a fantastic season last year, finishing second in the title race, and has been popular at $4.50 to win this week, as has Rossi's team-mate from last year, Nicky Hayden at $5. Alex Barros, also on a Honda, seems to be the number one rider for that stable now, and has been to the fore in pre season testing, so he can be expected to be hard to beat as well. Rossi's domination virtually ruined the bikes as a betting medium over the past few years, so assuming that he wont have a hold on races like he did, perhaps the betting will return to the halcyon days where there were at least a few winning chances each race? TENNIS Spain have emerged form last weekends Davis Cup quarter finals as the clear cut favourites at $1.75, and although Spain’s next encounter will be against a formidable French team, they certainly have the edge on clay. Spain have won their last ten ties in Spain, with the last loss back in 1999 to Brazil. On that occasion, Brazil's Gustavo Kuerten won all three matches (including doubles), but facts and figures point towards Spain being a finalist as they have two top ten players (Maya and Ferrari) in their squad, and this duo are clay court specialists. The other finalist will come from the winner of the USA and Belarus. The Americans will be near on unbackable to win this tie, and are currently second picks at $2.65 to win the Cup itself. This tie will more than likely be played on hardcourt, and apart from having the world's number two player (Andy Roddick), the Americans have the Bryan brothers as their doubles players. The Bryans are 3-0 in Davis Cup doubles ties, while Roddick is 9-0 on hardcourt in Davis Cup matches. They should handle Belarus, but the big ask will be in the final, as no matter who it is out of Spain or France, the final will be on clay. The French Open isn't too far away, and punters will get a good chance to have a look at most of the major chances this week as there are three clay court tournaments on. Centrebet is covering each match, and 'sets betting' will be available on most matches of interest. SOCCER Some of our punters are persistent. Make that very persistent. Ancona did not win any of its first 28 Italian Serie A games this season yet still some of our clients thought that they should bet on Giovanni Galeone's bottom-of-the-table team beating Bologna. Goodness knows what prompted them to wager money on Ancona - it had nothing to do with form analysis, that much is evident - but the relegated side rewarded their leap of faith with a 3-2 home victory at odds of 6.00. The coastal club's upset win ensured that it will not become the first team to go through an entire Serie A campaign without registering a victory. Ancona's next target is to break its duck away from home. It plays Lazio in Rome on Sunday and we are offering a double-digit price on another shock result. A couple of monster English Premier League gambles went astray over Easter. Relegation jolly Wolverhampton equalled its club record of 27 consecutive away games without a win but our punters banked on the Black Country club losing to Manchester City. Wolves drew 3-3 with the Blues, a scoreline that was unsatisfactory for everyone except us. An even greater plunge took place 48 hours later when Liverpool entertained Chelsea at Anfield. We do not what it is about the Reds but we lay them every week even though they are, at best, England's fourth best outfit. The odds are against Liverpool qualifying for next season's Champions League following its 1-0 home loss to the Addicks. Predictably, however, there is money for the Reds to overcome Fulham in their next encounter. The first round of Norwegian football began on Easter Monday, which saw six home wins from the seven games played. Punters came out ahead courtesy of Valerenga's 1-0 win over Bodo/Glimt. Title favourites Rosenborg had to wait until the 82nd minute before they could score against Brann, and this was one of those very rare occasions where Rosenborg were a winner for us. Brann, along with Lillestrom, were the two best backed sides to take the championship belt away from Rosenborg, and their supporters would have come away from that game with a fair amount of confidence. Brann feature in the best betting game of the upcoming round when they host Molde. Molde had a good win last week, but we expected the bulk of the money to come for Brann ($2.05), and that has been the case. A few of our more astute Norwegian football followers have bet heavily on the draw at $3.50, with some having a 'saver' on Molde at $3.25, so we have a good betting game on our hands. Elsewhere, Blackburn have been solidly supported to beat Leicester on Saturday night. After opening at $2, Blackburn are now into $1.80 on the back of some hefty bets, which include one of $60,000 from Singapore. That same punter has also had $28,750 on Man City at $2 to defeat Southampton. We are now closing in on the end of most of the European football season, and as always there are plenty of matches that will be treated with great caution over the coming weeks. There are always conspiracy theories bandied around at this time of the year, and with most punters spending time in on-line chat rooms, it is common place for bookies to come under fire from a barrage of bets on a game that somebody thinks might be suspect. There were a couple last week, and we have an instance this week where we have had big support for the draw in the Italian Serie A match Chievo v Reggina. A lot of regular 'forum followers' have joined in, and after opening at $2.75, we continue to see money at $2.10. We will be watching the game with interest!!
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
