|
|
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
Aussie
Rules
|
Centrebet Capers
AUSTRALIAN RULES It looked a tough round on paper, and that is exactly how the fourth round of AFL panned out with only four favourites winning. Six of the eight matches were close in pricing terms, and that usually means punters tend to keep out, but for various reasons that wasn't the case this time. Two of the biggest 'goes' were reserved for Sunday, with one going to the punters (Freo's win over Collingwood), and one to the bookies (Sydney's win over the Roos). We were happy to lay Collingwood in their match against Fremantle, and after opening with a best priced $1.70, we did find some early takers. That all changed however when rumours circulated Thursday lunchtime that Nathan Buckley would be out of the Collingwood side, and considering that they were already light on for troops, that made the Magpies a good risk. In the blink of an eyelid, Fremantle went from quotes around the $2.20 mark, to equal favourites, and eventually started slight favourites at $1.85. Luckily for bookies that the Dockers never win away from home, as that was the only thing that turned punters away from backing a certain winner. The Magpies are a rabble at the moment, and are languishing down near the bottom of the table with only one win from four starts. Whilst on the betting fluctuations of Fremantle, it is worth pointing out how easy bookies in general have made it for punters in this day and age. On that game, there were at least 12 operators outside of Australia who were offering arbitrage opportunities when Buckley came out of the Collingwood side. I suspect that most of those 12 wouldn't even know who Buckley was, yet some of these then go and plagiarise prices, then close punters accounts when they back winners! As if that opportunity wasn't a standout, have a look at what was on offer in our own country! Six of the eight matches were bet to less than 100%, one (Melb v Port) was right on 100%, and the Geelong v Richmond match sat at 100.7%. If that isn't enough, there were anything up to 10 point gaps on some of the handicaps made available in matches, so it really is a 'punters paradise' at the moment. One can only wonder how some 'bookmakers' would survive in a real business environment. The Sydney Swans looked light on in the forward line when they had to travel to Canberra to play the Kangaroos, and that saw an avalanche of money come for the Kangaroos. After opening at $1.90 either side, the Roos were backed into $1.75, and two of the bigger bets were $20,000 at $1.90 and $1.80. After shooting to a 5 goal lead, Kangaroo punters would have been on good terms with themselves, but half way through the first quarter, the Swans went into overdrive, and went on an unanswered 13 goal spree to put the game beyond doubt. It was a very impressive display, and the Swans look a strong finals candidate. The upset of the round was Melbourne's 53 point win over Port Adelaide. Port were another side hit by injury, and the also had a late withdrawal in Chad Cornes. Oddly enough, they were still very easy to lay, including being the middle leg in a losing treble of $80,000. Betting at the breaks in televised matches is becoming increasingly popular, and we had a hectic 15 minutes at the major break of the Adelaide v St Kilda match on Saturday night. In a good betting game anyway, Adelaide had been backed from $2.15 into $1.95, but went into half time trailing by 11 points. Close to $44,000 was wagered at that time, with betting split between the two. St Kilda were $1.80, which drew three separate bets of $5000 from one Victorian man, while there was any amount of support to say the Crows would still win. A most intriguing bet of $USD 5000 made its way into our system from Las Vegas for Adelaide to win at $2, and we can only guess that that particular punter was listening to the game over the internet. This week, things look a little easier with six short priced favourites. The odds of all eight fav's winning this week are around the $11 mark (compared to $61 last week), and with most of them playing at home, they will all be popular through multiples. Jumping into a side that is winless after four games, and has to travel, seems strange, but that is what we are confronted with on Friday night. Adelaide travel to the MCG to take on Richmond, who are also under intense scrutiny at the moment. As soon as we posted Adelaide as $1.70 favourites, punters let us know that they considered that 'overs' as the first three bets, totaling just over $24,000, were for the Crows. Melbourne have a poor record in Sydney, but that hasn't stopped three early bets of $2000 coming for the Demons at $3.10, while there has also been a little support for another outsider in Carlton ($2.50) to beat the West Coast. 'Single's betting on the short priced fav's has been quiet as most prefer to couple them up in multiples, but we have taken one bet of $18,000 for Essendon at $1.35 to defeat Collingwood. Granted the Magpies are down for the count at the moment, but this Anzac Day match carries a lot of tradition, enough perhaps to see Collingwood spring an upset. RUGBY LEAGUE Rugby league punters fared marginally better than their Aussie Rules counterparts at the weekend, but they can count themselves as very fortunate to come away with a result in their favour on two of the matches played. The two in question were the Cowboys against Brisbane and the Roosters over Newcastle, with both favourites covering the handicap against the run of play. North Queensland got back into the game after trailing 16-4 against Brisbane, and although they were behind 18-12 in the dying minutes, they were playing well enough to take the game to extra time, or at least stay within the 6½ point handicap they were receiving. Plenty of money was plonked on Brisbane conceding the start, including one bet of $23,000, and much to our dismay, and against the run of play, the Bronco's kicked a field goal to win 19-12. That was exasperating stuff, but nothing compared to what happened on Sunday. All and sundry wanted to be on the Roosters to beat Newcastle, with the handicap moving from -4½ out to -6½ points. Many big bets were recorded, the largest of those being $30,000 at -5½. and after several dubious decisions, the Roosters looked like they would hang on to win 26-22. We would have copped that as it was inside the handicap, but they scored a converted try right on the full time siren to provide punters with an unexpected windfall. Newcastle coach Michael Hagan said it all when he said nothing about the final scoreline, he obviously couldn't believe what he had seen either! Enough of the complaints, we got a more than handy result when Cronulla improved a ton to defeat Canberra 38-24. As we pointed out last week, the Raiders were coming off the bye, but that didn't stem the tide of bets for Canberra. After opening at $1.55, the Raiders got into $1.45 and in the biggest move of the round, we accepted bets of $25,000 for them to win at $1.50, and three bets totalling $63,700 for them to beat the handicap. You never know which Cronulla is going to turn up to play, but thankfully on this occasion it was the 'A' team. Canberra were also a leg of a treble of $80,000 that included Port Adelaide and the Melbourne Storm. There is trouble in Warrior Land, and with only one win to date, a finals appearance for New Zealand is starting to look less likely as each week passes. Although they started the outsiders at $2.40 against the Bulldogs, a late rally for the Kiwi's meant that we were looking for a Bulldogs win, and they didn't let us down. This week is very tricky with the Anzac Test on Friday night, then trying to work out who will back up for the weekends games. The test looks one sided, and betting suggests that as well. The New Zealand side is pretty ordinary on paper, and we all know how the Warriors are travelling. This scoreline could be anything, but we did at least think that 18½ start to the New Zealanders would be enticing to some, but we were wrong. Instead, we have taken two $5000 bets for the Aussies conceding the start, with numerous smaller bets coming as well, so that handicap is moving towards 20. The weekend’s games have been understandably quiet until the test is over. Historically there are always a few of the bigger names who don’t back up, so we, along with punters, are treading warily. Two games have attracted some early business, those being Canberra at home to Newcastle, and Wests v Manly. In the Raiders game, we have seen money both ways, led up by one of our league regulars who took the -8½ Canberra with a bet of $10,000, but that has been overtaken by a series of bets for the Knights with the start. One problem with Newcastle is that they have named Ben Kennedy, but surely he must be a very doubtful starter. GOLF Stewart Cink came from nine shots behind Ted Purdy and then survived a tournament director's ruling to capture his second MCI Heritage Classic title. A closing round, seven under par 65 compared to Purdy's two over 74 forced the tournament into its third play-off in the last four years before Cink birdied the fifth hole from the waste bunker. He then required a ruling from the tournament director, as he had removed some loose impediments from that hazard before playing the shot which won him the tournament, a ruling which went in Cinks favour as there had been no breach of the rules. This was Cinks third career victory and his first in four years, the last being at the same event, while Purdy will have to remain patient before he captures his first PGA Tour title. Els rallied late with a closing three under 69 to finish in a tie for third with Carl Pettersson and Patrick Sheehan and while he was always a chance in the event he never seriously threatened for victory, much to the chagrin of the punter who backed him to win in excess of $100,000. This week we head to Texas for the Shell Houston Open which sees veteran Fred Couples defend the title he so emphatically won last year, and like Cink, broke a drought of some five years without a victory. Couples has had six top 25 finishes already this year and his form is not too dissimilar to last year when he claimed victory. Punters have been on the ball with our first wager being $2,000 on Couples at $31 and along with Australians Robert Allenby, $21, and Geoff Ogilvy, $34, have been best backed. It must be something in the Texas air which inspires the Aussies as we have been successful six times in this event, the last couple being Appleby in 1999 and Allenby in 2000. On the European tour Argentinean Ricardo Gonzalez won his fourth title with a two shot victory in the Open de Savilla in Spain. Gonzalez took a one shot lead into the final round and after closing with a three under 69 managed to hold off Englishman Jonathon Lomas and Scotsman Stephen Gallacher. Spain must remind Gonzalez of home as he was also successful at the Tellefonica Open last October and is on the third line of betting at this weeks' Canarias Open de Espana at $17. Defending champion is Kenneth Ferrie at $61 while best backed have been Englishman Greg Owen at $41, Australian Terry Price at $51 and the consistent Soren Hansen at $26, but if the Spanish air still agrees with Gonzalez expect him to make another forward showing in an event on the European tour once again void of big names. RUGBY UNION The upsets kept coming in week nine of the Super 12 and none any bigger for the season than Friday night’s debacle in Auckland. Sent out raging hot favourites at $1.20, and giving 13½ points to the Stormers at $1.90, punters were definitive that their season would get back on track with an emphatic victory. Our first wager was $15,000 on the Blues at the win which was followed by an avalanche of bets conceding the 13½ points start however we were prepared to accommodate our clientele as both teams play expansive rugby which can, as was the case here, lead to an unexpected result. Punters were not prepared to get involved in the Reds and Bulls game and stayed clear of $1.60 without Elton Flatley while the third game on Friday evening saw the Chiefs travel to Durban to take on the Sharks who had been playing solid rugby and were coming off a win over the fancied Crusaders. The Sharks were sent out $1.38 and conceding 7½ points while the Chiefs, desperate for a win to stay in touch of the top four, were $3.10. Our first wager was $10,000 at the start from a South African client which was followed by two $5,000 wagers at the win forcing that price into $1.36, however the Sharks proved disappointing going over 27-34 to a committed unit from Waikato. The Saturday games provided another surprise result. The Waratahs proved too strong for the Hurricanes in Sydney 49-31, displaying all the flair that had them second picks early in the season, however later that night the Crusaders were lucky to escape with the points, prevailing 39-37 over the Cats at Ellis Park, courtesy of a late penalty goal. Several $10,000 wagers conceding 10½ points start stayed in the bag although one enterprising client had $7,000 on the Crusaders to win by less than 13 at $3.30 which took the shine off what was otherwise a good result. This weekend’s games appear to be fairly even and will no doubt provide some further upsets. First game on Friday has the Stormers marginal favourites over the Chiefs in Waikato at $170 and conceding 2½ points. Our first wager was $6,000 on the Chiefs at $2.15 but with injury worries to Keith Lowen and Lochie Critchton and having to travel back from South Africa we expect to see support for the Stormers. The Crusaders are $1.25 and conceding 11½ points to the Bulls in Christchurch while the Sharks are $1.18 and conceding 13½ points to the Reds in Durban, an upset in either game given what is at stake would surprise, while the Highlanders and Hurricanes along with the Cats and Blues are $1.90 your pick games which could go either way. No doubt the game of the round is the local derby between the Waratahs and Brumbies at Sydney Football Stadium. A loss to the Waratahs could spell the end to their season while the Brumbies require a win to ensure a home final so this game is sure to provide fireworks. The Brumbies are $1.60 favourites and are conceding 3½ points while the Waratahs are $2.35 which may be value considering their 4-1 home record against the Brumbies. Whatever the result it is sure to be a high class game of rugby. ELECTIONS Betting on the Australian Federal election has leveled out now that the Coalition have been cut to $1.57 and Labor have moved back out to $2.25. We haven't seen any serious action now for two weeks, so it would be fair to say that that is what the public think is where it all sits. Now we have to sit back and wait for the next serious topic to be raised before another expected rush of betting. The US Presidential election is due to be held in November, and that has also seen some intriguing fluctuations over the past three months. America's involvement in Iraq, both previously and in the future, is obviously a contentious issue, and that has seen the odds for George Bush to be re-elected alter significantly. Bush got as short as $1.28, but now finds himself holding on to slight favourtism at $1.70, with John Kerry at $2.05. Of the $80,000 bet so far on this election, most of that money has been wagered by non US citizens, so everyone seems to have an opinion on who will win, and why. In the past three weeks, we have taken close to $30,000 for John Kerry, forcing his price down form $2.20 to where it currently sits, and the biggest of those bets was 25,000 DKK ( $AUD 5000 ) from a Danish client. That market is extremely brittle, and we, like everybody else, are focusing on every word that comes out of George Bushs' mouth. One wrong move, and he could be out of office. FORMULA ONE Michael Schumacher is $1.62 to win this weekend's Formula One Grand Prix in San Marino, and even at that price it looks to be giving money away! Schumacher has qualified quickest in all three GP's this season, and has gone on to win all three. He is a five time winner at Imola, and has won four of the last five there. This circuit was originally one of the quickest, but following the deaths of Roland Ratzenberger and Ayrton Senna back in 1994, a lot of modifications were made to the track to slow it down. That has meant that it is now a 'leaders track', and unless a driver starts from one of the top three or four positions on the grid, he can forget about his chances. Based on the first three races, it is impossible to go past Schumacher as the likely winner. His Ferrari team-mate Rubens Barrichello is second pick at $6.50 ahead of Juan Pablo Montoya at $8, but we are having difficulty extracting anything out of other drivers. MOTOR BIKES The racing in this season's MotoGP's might be a bit more exciting, but even after one race it is painfully obvious that not even a move to Yamaha is going to out a stop to the domination of Valentino Rossi. The little Italian went into the South African GP as favourite at 42, and while there was money for him to win, including one bet of €3000 at $2.25, there was also plenty around to say that he would lose. Best backed to beat Rossi were eventual placegetters, Max Biaggi and Sete Gibernau. Biaggi, who momentarily took the lead with three laps to go, was backed to take out close to $40,000 at around the $7 mark, while two of our Italian regulars each parted with €2500 for Gibernau to win at $5.50. Both of these riders were also well supported to finish on the podium, and that was enough to see us come out on the wrong side of the ledger. Biaggi was backed from $2.75 all the way down to $2, while Gibernau had two separate wagers of $10,000 placed on him to finish amongst the placegetter's at $2.25. Outside of those three, Alex Barros (before qualifying), and Nicky Hayden (after qualifying) were the only others to attract any serious money, but at least for the time being there are those out there who are prepared to bet against Rossi. HORSE RACING Lonhro may have run his last race, but that race has been in the news ever since, firstly due to the ride of Darren Beadman, and then the $5million dollar bet that was placed. The race itself received huge media attention as it was Lonhro's last race, and then of course the $5m bet was taken. While we certainly didn't take any bets of that magnitude, we did take two bets of $20,000 at $1.25, and a host of smaller bets, many of which came from people who rarely bet on horses. Most thought that this race would have a fairytale finish, but it wasn't to be when Grand Armee hopped straight to the front, dictated a slow pace, and was able to sprint away to win easily. This is not the first time that an odds on pop has been beaten in a small field, and it won’t be the last, and plenty of experts have given Darren Beadman a 'serve' over his ride. To be fair to Beadman, he has more often than not ridden the horse the same way, but all those wins have now been superceded by last Saturday's performance. Now, onto the big bet. Some are saying it is a publicity stunt, and said the same thing about the previous two bets of $1m, and then $2m on the same horse. One thing that has been forgotten in all of this is that the bookie concerned must lodge a return, and pay tax on any bet taken. The tax rate on racing bets in the Northern Territory is 0.33%, which on a bet of that size is $16,500. That in itself is a costly enough exercise, and if the person is as reported an Australian, then the winnings in effect will also incur GST. Apart from that, there is a diligent regulatory authority in place in the Northern Territory who would have been reading of these bets, and I am sure would have verified that they do in fact exist. SOCCER It is that time of year when soccer punters rip up their form books and bet on teams, particularly those with home advantage, whose need for championship points is greater than their opponents. Our English Premier League clients made a beeline for Blackburn, Liverpool and Manchester City in the latest round of matches and, as is so often the case when punters base their judgements on intangibles, they lost their shirts. Rovers were all the rage for their relegation six-pointer against Leicester at Ewood Park. Although the former Premier League champion won 1-0 to pull away from the drop zone, it was greatly under the odds given its dreadful home record and the fact that the Foxes would the reverse fixture at Walkers Stadium in November by a comfortable two-goal margin. Liverpool and Manchester City fans were not so lucky. Our clients have the hots for the Reds, something for which no-one in the Centrebet office is able to offer an explanation. The Anfield mob is looking to secure England's fourth and final berth in next season's Champions League so as to hold on to star players such as Steven Gerrard, Harry Kewell and, of course, Michael Owen. To do that Liverpool must win the Premier League without Arsenal, Chelsea and Manchester United. Punters, it seems, thought that the Reds would beat Fulham because, for the want of a better reason, their need was greater than that of the Cottagers. And it appears that they used the same methodology to pick out City at home to Southampton. Needless to say, neither Liverpool nor the Blues won. The Italian Serie A game between Chievo and Reggina was an interesting one from a betting perspective. We suspended our books on the match following a flood of money for the draw at all rates from 2.75 to 2.10. Many bookmakers were quoting the stalemate at odds on when we ceased trading prices on the fixture 72 hours before kick-off. Unsurprisingly, the game was a dull affair in which neither side created a clear-cut scoring opportunity. The result saw Chievo maintain its mid-table position and kept Reggina out of the relegation positions. There are four rounds to go.
Until next week, good punting. For
further information contact Gerard Daffy at Centrebet on 08 89555800 or
centrebet@centrebet.com.
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
