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Aussie
Rules
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Centrebet Capers
AUSTRALIAN RULES Although the Sydney Swans were beaten by Melbourne on Saturday night, round five of the AFL clearly went the way of punters. The round was easily the biggest so far this year from a turnover point of view, and there were some very big moves in the betting on most matches. Further to last weeks mention of the opportunities available to punters, six of the eight games from the weekend were bet to 100% or less. In an unbelievable situation last Wednesday, punters were able to back Fremantle at $1.30 with one operator, while helping themselves to the $5 Geelong with another. Well done boys! Punters were straight on to the front foot when Adelaide thumped Richmond by 75 points on Friday night. We gave the Tigers a hope against a side that hadn't won a game, but that is it as far as Richmond is concerned! Until they get Matthew Richardson back, and show some heart, we won’t be getting too involved on matches they are 'playing' in. The bad weather in Melbourne over the weekend meant that Carlton were right in there with a chance to beat the West Coast, and that is how the market reacted. We took a bet of $20,000 for the Blues with 12½ points start ($1.90), as well as bets of $5000 and $4000 for Carlton to win at $2.40, and while the West Coast were layable on the day of the game at $1.60, it was a match which should have been a good result, but wasn't. How Hawthorn coach Peter Scwabb ever declared that the Hawks would win the Wizard Cup and the premiership we will never know, but Hawthorn showed on Saturday night that they are a long way short of the top level. Had Brisbane kicked straight the winning margin could have been anything, but as it was, their 48 point win was enough to cover the spread of 38 points. A Queensland punter was the big winner here, placing five separate bets of $5000 on the Lions conceding 38 points start. The only positive to come out of the weekend was Melbourne's win over Sydney. The Swans attracted plenty of business, including one bet from Sydney of $22,000 at -22½ points start. The Swans jumped straight to the front, and when they held a 23 point lead at quarter time, $6.50 was available for a Melbourne win, but nobody took it! Betting at half time saw close to $10,000 come for Melbourne at $2 when they held a lead of 9 points, but when the Swans went into the last break 10 points ahead, betting had swung around with $7500 coming for them at $1.40. Melbourne outplayed Sydney to win by 2 goals, and the only question that hasn't been answered is how Hawthorn beat them by 49 points in the first round? Sunday was a black day when all three fav's won, with two covering the handicap and the other just falling short. The traditional Anzac Day clash between Collingwood and Essendon saw money for both sides when the weather had closed in, but a bet of $60,000 for Essendon at -22½ was enough to swing the result the way of punters. It was quite popular to couple up all the 'shorties' in multiples, and one punter collected just under $260,000 from a $60,000 wager on Essendon (23½), Port Adelaide (-30½) and Fremantle to win. The first two won easily, and we got a little sight when Geelong got within 8 points of Fremantle late in the last quarter, but they also went on to win easily in the finish. This week only has one real 'shortie' in Port Adelaide, who are at home to Collingwood. Collingwood's hopes rest on whether or not Nathan Buckley plays, but assuming he doesn't they are currently $5.50, and no takers! The last thing Richmond needed was another injury, but the loss of Mark Coughlan will make it nearly impossible for them against Hawthorn this Friday night. We originally had the Hawks at $1.55, with two bets of $2000 taken at that quote, but the loss of Coughlan saw us cut the price to $1.45. In what is shaping as a tough round (36/1 all fav's to win on opening prices), the talk is all centred around the match between the top two in premiership betting Brisbane and St Kilda. We have always found Brisbane hard to lay when they travel, and we posted the Lions at $2, but such is the level of interest in this game that we were forced to turn that price off after taking nearly $30,000 in bets immediately, mostly from Queensland, The $1.85 currently on offer for St Kilda has also been popular, and why not when you consider that Brisbane will be a ruckman short, and the Saints did win the corresponding game last year. Unfortunately, the local derby in Perth will be played at nearly the same time as the St Kilda match, but that has also been a terrific betting match. For the first time in one of these, Fremantle will go in as favourites at $1.70, with the West Coast at $2.15. The bets haven't been of massive proportions, but to date there has been just as many individual bets for both sides as in the St Kilda game. We would have had the West Coast around the $2 mark, but having played in the heavy conditions at Optus Oval last Sunday would have done them no favours, and definitely favours Fremantle. As far as the Brownlow Medal goes, James Hird has put all his recent drama's behind him and now heads our market at $6. Hird is already a bad result for us, and is in scintillating form. The two big movers over the past two weeks have been Simon Black ($41-$15) and Peter Burgoyne, now into $17 after being nearly double that three weeks ago. RUGBY LEAGUE Darren Lockyer probably doesn’t realise how much damage he inflicted on bookies with his 40 metre field goal right on half time in last Friday's league test against New Zealand. That solitary point gave Australia a haft time lead by 11-10, which blew out to 37-10 at full time. We took a bet of $60,000 (price of $4) that started off with Australia to lead at half time and full time, the Adelaide Crows -9½ points, St Kilda to win, and the Crusaders in the Super 12 to win. If Lockyer had missed, the bet would have lost, so it was a $240,000 kick! The same punter looked likely to beat us for another $140,000 after placing $100,000 on the Brisbane Lions and Melbourne Storm to win, rounding it off with the Brumbies to beat the Waratahs in the Super 12. We agree with Simon Poidevin's assessment of the Waratah's, 'it was their best ever win', but naturally we would say that wouldn't we? Including the test, seven of the eight league favourites won, and of those five of the eight covered the handicap, so we can thank our lucky stars that we got the better of punters. Once again it was Cronulla who delivered a knock out blow to favourite backers when they defeated Parramatta in extra time 18-14. We had to chase Parramatta out to $1.55 or -5½, but we did find two $10,000 bets for that handicap. Later the same night, all the money came for Canberra when firstly Ben Kennedy, and then Timana Tahu, were ruled out of the Newcastle Knights. The handicap went from -8½ to -10½, and although Canberra scored a lucky win, they couldn’t cover. Those who backed the Knights to win the title must be wondering what might have been if Andrew Johns hadn't injured himself. The Knights are playing really well. Sunday saw a rally for Penrith to beat Brisbane, but the Panthers were never in it, going down 32-14. Eager to lay Brisbane, we found we kept recording bets in the Penrith column, the last of those being $10,000 at $2.05 after $2.15 was given. This was another of those times where it was good to be wrong! Wests came from 16-8 down with 25 minutes to play to defeat Manly 30-22 in a game that carried little action. The big result for the round was the Roosters' 11-8 win over St George Illawarra. The Roosters were the favourites, but we took good money for the Dragons to win at $2.45, and bets of $40,000 and $15,000 for the Roosters conceding 5½ points start. Amazingly punters left the 'win' price for the Roosters alone, so we were left with the perfect result. The less said about Monday's game between Souths and the Bulldogs the better. In a game riddled with mistakes, and incomplete sets of six, the Bulldogs eventually covered the 22 point handicap winning 34-8. The Bulldogs were backed from -20½ into -22½, and it was an ordinary way to finish the weekend. This week, the Bulldogs feature in the match of the round against Brisbane on Sunday. The Dogs have been unimpressive in winning recently, while the Darren Lockyer experiment at Brisbane appears to be working. Only because they are at home, the Bulldogs are slight favourites at $1.75, and that is where the money has been placed. The woes of the Warriors has been news over the past two weeks, and if they are to be considered any chance of turning things around and playing in the finals, then they must beat Melbourne on Sunday. The Storm have problems of their own with Alex Chan out, while the Kiwi side will welcome back Awen Guttenbeil as captain. We have already taken bets of $15,000 and $10,000 for the Warriors at $1.80, but on what they have shown so far this season, that is hardly any 'spoil'. In the Friday night game, Penrith go in as warm $1.20 favourites over Wests. The Panthers have been anchored up through multiples, and there has also been some significant money placed on them to beat the handicap of 13½ The only other match that has been popular early in the week has been what we see as the worst, Parramatta v North Queensland. Pitting these two enigmas’ together is hardly fair on the public, but for various reasons there has been money for both. One devout Eels fan who regularly bets has weighed in early with a bet of $7000 for Parramatta to beat a 7½ point handicap, but we have noticed money coming from the tropics for the Cowboys both to win at $2.80, and also with the start. The only certainty about this game is that there must be a winner! GOLF As can happen so often in sport the cream rose to the top at last weeks Shell Houston Open when Vijay Singh won his second event of the season. The win was Singh's second in three years at this event and the sixth consecutive time he has led after 54 holes to capture the title. The win has also put him back in the race to retain the PGA tours leading money crown he won for the first time last year, breaking Tiger Woods' five year reign, however he still has some work to do to overhaul Phil Mickelson who opened a considerable gap after winning the Masters title. Singh was solid in the betting at $5.50, two $1000 wagers from local clients indicating that it was still an attractive quote given the quality of the field, with K.J Choi and Robert Allenby both at $21, the most likely to cause an upset. The rain interruption on day two and three however made it difficult for punters to get involved given the lack of completed scores, which may have proved a blessing for Centrebet as it would have been difficult to see Vijay being beaten given his position at the completion of round three. This week we head to New Orleans for the HP Classic where money leaders Singh and Mickelson do battle to consolidate their status as the two form players on tour this year. Betting has opened with Mickelson slight favourite at $6.50 from Singh at $7 however one of our bigger betting golf clients has backed Singh to win $100,000 forcing that quote into $6.50 and equal favourite. Also backed to win $100,000 has been Chris DiMarco at $23, Scott Verplank at $26 and veteran Woody Austin at $101 while Stephen Ames, $41, and Geoff Ogilvy $41, have their fair share of admirers. This course seems to produce the odd result or two and with two time winner Carlos Franco, $81, and defending champion Steve Flesch, $34, both in the field, another surprise result could be in the making. On the European tour, Christian Cevaer captured his maiden title at his 173rd European Tour start and became the fifth first time winner in 2004. Cevaer was a bolter for bookmakers as he was quoted at $151 before the tournament commenced, and with two eagle two's in his final round he was able to overhaul the final group which included last weeks winner Ricardo Gonzalez, $16, Peter Hedblom, $81, and David Park at $51, to win by a shot. There is little doubt that the European tour is extremely even with young players of the calibre of Hedblom and Siem improving each week thus making it an interesting betting vehicle for both bookmakers and punters alike. The tour heads to Italy this week for the Telecom Italian Open in Milan. Ian Poulter will attempt a third victory in five years in this event, the first being at Molas in 2000. He has been installed favourite at $12 from the consistent Ricardo Gonzalez at $16 and Englishman Brian Davis at $17.Best supported have been Australians Brett Rumford and Richard Green at $81 while improving American Bob Rashell has been backed to win than $40,000 at $81. This again is a difficult event to call so don't be surprised to see another first time winner on the European tour being successful. RUGBY UNION Another week of Super 12 rugby produced its share of results and in doing so has opened up the table so as seven teams now have a legitimate claim on a semi finals birth, and given the fickle nature of results any of four teams have a claim to a home semi thus making the betting to win the title even more volatile. The Crusaders and Brumbies share top of the betting at $2.65, both strongly fancied to win this week, a win which will almost guarantee a home final - almost! A loss by either team would make a finals spot dependent on victory in the final home and away game, while victory this week to the Chiefs would mean next weeks encounter with the Brumbies could be for a home semi finals berth. The Waratahs are on the third line of betting at $7 from the Chiefs at $8 while the Stormers and Blues at $17 and Sharks at $21 all have a chance of a semi-finals berth given two wins and some luck. This weeks' games kick off on Friday with the Chiefs hosting the Bulls in Hamilton. The Chiefs are $1.28 and must concede 10½ points to the Bulls who are $3.65, a loss to either team will signal the end of their season. Later that evening in Durban, the Sharks host the Blues in what is also a season ending game for the loser. The Sharks appeared to be heading for a home semi-finals spot two weeks ago before two shock loses to the Chiefs and Reds now must defeat defending champions the Blues at home just to stay in the race. The Sharks are $2 and the Blues $1.80 in what should be a free flowing encounter. On Saturday the Waratahs host the Highlanders at Sydney Football Stadium, a graveyard for travelling sides this season, and are $1.16 to win and must concede 14½ points. All early money has been for the Waratahs, one $10,000 wager from a Sydney client conceding 16½ points at $2.10 with a further $10,000 from a South African client at the win price setting the tone for this game. This match is followed by the Crusaders and Stormers game, with the Crusaders already into $1.22 from an opening quote of $1.28 while the line has moved from 10½ to 11½ points on the back of some heavy support from our New Zealand clientele, our opening wager $10,000 at the points followed by a further two $5,000 bets. No doubt their form has been sound but the Stormers are capable of producing attacking rugby of the highest quality so the Crusaders defence will need to be on their metal. The third game on Saturday has the Brumbies hosting the Hurricanes in Canberra and once again the home side has been the median of heavy support firming into $1.11 from $1.14 while the start has moved two points from 15½ to 17½ after two $10,000 wagers, one from an Australian client the other from England. The final game is the only game which will have no impact on the make up of the finals as the Cats host the Reds in Bloemfontein. The Cats are $1.80 to win while the Reds are $2, in a game as unpredictable to predict as the Melbourne weather. This week may appear straight forward to the average tipster but don't be surprised to see some strange results as per every other week in Super 12, the Stormers perhaps being the most likely in that category. OLYMPICS While all the talk overseas is about whether Athens will be ready to host the Olympic Games, Ian Thorpe has dominated Olympic news in Australia. Thorpe was disqualified from the men’s 400 metres freestyle final recently when he broke. A win would have been a mere formality, yet Craig Stevens found himself representing Australia in that event along with Grant Hackett. Everybody had an opinion as to whether Stevens should stand aside or not, but given how many phone calls we took from people wanting to back Thorpe to win the 400 gold even though he wasn't in the field, it came as no surprise this week when Stevens stepped aside, paving the way for Thorpe to contest the 400. Now that that has happened, and with Thorpe in the news, we have come up with a market on how many gold medals he will win in Athens, He has already qualified for three (100m, 200m and 400m), should contest the 4 x 100 medley, and will also be in the two relays. We aren't sure if there is someone out there in the world who can push Thorpe, so on face value he has to be near on unbackable to win both the 200 and 400. Two gold medals is the favourite way at $1.90, but the early betting has seen money come for 'three gold' at $2.75 and five gold at $11. A couple of really ambitious punters have taken the $51 for 'six or more', so they wont want Thorpie making any mistakes like he did at the qualifying trials!
Until next week, good punting. For
further information contact Gerard Daffy at Centrebet on 08 89555800 or
centrebet@centrebet.com.
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