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Aussie
Rules
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Centrebet Capers
AUSTRALIAN RULES There was hardly a punter left standing after the weekend’s AFL results which saw only three favourites win; Two of those covering the spread. Melbourne got favourite backers off to a good start when they thrashed Geelong on Friday night. The Demons attracted the biggest bet of the weekend; $50,000 conceding the 7-point start at $1.90. From there it was all downhill with the Roos, Pies, Swans and Crows all pulling off victories. That snuffed out just about every multi placed on a round three match. This week looks a little more predictable but from the opening three rounds that might be a silly thing to say. All bar two of the favourites are less than $1.50 with high handicaps being set. The Kangaroos have been the surprise packet of the season so far and are $1.65 to beat Collingwood on Friday night. While they look hard to beat we have found the Roos are a side that punters refuse to back at odds on. In Collingwood’s favour is they have won five of the last six meetings by an average of 39 points. It gives us some confidence to lay the Roos. Essendon are in trouble and they’ll be in more strife if James Hird doesn’t play this week against Geelong. We think the Cats will return to the winner’s circle here and expect them to start shorter than the current $1.45 on offer. Port Adelaide goes into Saturday night’s home match against Carlton as hot $1.27 favourites. The Blues will be without Scott Camporeale and while Port’s form last week was abysmal, we are tipping a big win for them in this one. Richmond did the right thing by us last week and the can do the same again on Sunday. The Tigers host Fremantle and at $2.30 look to be good value. However, punters disagree as there’s been massive early support for Freo at $1.60. West Coast is our new premiership favourites at $5 ahead of Melbourne at $5.50. We have taken a few interesting bets this week. One Victorian punter placed $5,000 on St Kilda at $10, while another client had $2,500 on the Swans at $13. In Brownlow Medal betting Melbourne’s Cameron Bruce is the outright favourite at $7 with Chris Judd back into $8. Mark Riccuito meantime has been elevated to $15 following a best on ground performance for the Crows last weekend. RUGBY LEAGUE Just like their AFL counterparts Rugby League punters were left on the canvas after last weekend’s results which saw only three favourites get up. The Friday night match saw a massive plunge on Melbourne go astray when they were beaten 36-16 by Penrith. Despite St George Illawarra and Brisbane recording wins as favoured teams, the upset victory by Canberra along with plenty of money for North Queensland to defeat Cronulla sees us remain in business. The Newcastle v Souths clash was a bad result for us with bets of $20,000, $12,000 and $5,000 placed on the Rabitohs with four-point start. We also saw $25,000 worth of bets wagered on the Bunnies to win at $2.40. This week last year’s grand finalists line up against each other on Friday night. Early trading has seen all one way traffic for the Bulldogs at $1.65 to defeat the Roosters. We think injury concerns at Penrith might just give Souths a hope of beating the Panthers on Saturday. Early bets of $15,000 and $10,000 have gone on Penrith conceding 5 ½ start. There’s also a sprinkling of support for Souths at $2.60. The Knights haven’t looked like winning a game this year but they go in as favourites against the Warriors this week and people are backing them! Punters seem to think the possible return of Test hooker Danny Buderus will make a difference and have been taking $1.65. It sounds silly but if St George Illawarra can beat Brisbane on Sunday they may even find themselves vying for premiership favouritism. We’ve taken plenty of bets for them to win the title this week at $11. It is a tight competition! GOLF The US Masters proved to be one of the biggest betting majors of all time. The ‘big five’ of Tiger Woods, Ernie Els, Vijay Singh, Phil Mickleson and Retief Goosen were all heavily supported throughout betting on the tournament. Woods may’ve won the title with a 20 foot birdie putt on the 18th hole to defeat Chris Di Marco en-route to a fourth green jacket. However, it was his memorable chip on the 16th hole which set up the victory. Els, Singh and Goosen were all backed to win in excess of $200,000. Woods landed some big wages including $8,000 at $5.50 and $2,000 at $11 during the rain interrupted second round. This week the tour heads to South Carolina for the MCI Heritage Open, where Stewart CInk is the $12 favourite and defending champion. Cink has been ultra consistent this year, with six top 20 finishes. Davis Love is also in the market at $13 despite his poor form. Keep in mind he has won this event five times previously. There’s been strong support for Darren Clarke $17, Jim Furyk $16, Scott Verplank $21 and Zach Johnson $21. A Sydney client has backed them all to win over $100,000. RUGBY UNION Week seven of the Super 12 was highlighted by the upset victory of the Bulls over the Crusaders. We anticipated plenty of support for the Crusaders giving up a modest -8 ½ start but the punters obviously preferred to stay in bed. The Blues were heavily backed from the opening of the market against the Cats, so much so the handicap moved from -16 ½ to – 18 ½ within 12 minutes. The Cats fell away badly to lose by 17 giving us a mixed result. In the match of the cellar dwellers we managed to get $8,000 out of the Sharks while holding $70,000 on the Chiefs. Needless to say it wasn’t a great result as the Chiefs emerged victorious by 40 points to 5. The Waratahs managed to let their supporters down again with a two point loss to the Hurricanes in Wellington, despite being in control for much of the match. One punter certainly went home happy after having a tidy $6,000 on the Hurricanes in halftime/fulltime double to win $17,100. This week sees New South Wales looking to avoid a third straight loss, against the ACT Brumbies at Canberra Stadium. History suggests they’ll struggle having never won against the Brumbies in the nation’s capital. The punters are also confident the Brumbies will arrest their form slump with all the money coming for the ACT; including $10,000 at $1.72 and $15,000 at $1.67. The Blues look like finally getting their bonus point try and will score plenty of points this week against the hapless Sharks. That’s what the money is suggesting anyway, with punters loading up on the Auckland based side. We’re currently holding $50,000 on the match and expect that amount to double by kick-off. The Bulls have received plenty of support against the Reds especially at the handicap of -10 ½. In the most difficult match of the round the Crusaders, coming off a shock loss and with injury concerns are only being modestly supported against the Stormers in Cape Town. SOCCER Manchester United’s 2-0 loss to Norwich was a major setback to Soccer punters and was the difference between Centrebet winning and losing on the weekend. The $1.37 favourites were anchored in almost every big multi for the weekend. We also took two separate bets of $25,000 for Man. U to win at the short odds. The loss has frightened a few away from taking the short odds again this week in their FA Cup semi final fixture against Newcastle, who are currently being backed to win at $5.50. The first week of Norwegian football saw punters come off second best mainly due to the draw in the Rosenborg v Aalesund match. Rosenborg were hot $1.22 favourites. However, it wasn’t all bad with Rosenborg’s main title rivals Valerenga suffering defeat at the hands of Ham-Kam 3-1. Valerenga attracted many big bets including one of 55,000 NOK at $2.45. In Sweden, the 2005 Allsvenskan season kicked off with the main fixture Malmo v IFK Goteborg. A goal in the 58th minute to former Swedish international Hakan Mild managed to break a 1-all deadlock and give IFK Goteborg a surprise victory at $3.90. MOTOR BIKES Valentino Rossi won an action packed Spanish Grand Prix at the weekend. If the final lap is anything to go by Rossi and Sete Gibernau will provide plenty of exciting finishes before the season is over. Rossi went in as favourite at $1.75, with the biggest bet being €2200 from an Italian client. Gibernau was a close second elect at $2.50. Apart from those two, the only other rider whom we saw any decent money at all was Nicky Hayden at $13. He was also backed to finish on the podium at $2.75 with the largest bet being $2000. So, it's off to Portugal this week and with tensions still running high between the two leading riders, following their last lap tussle in Spain, who knows what will happen. Once again the duo, dominate the betting with Rossi at $1.80, and Gibernau at $2.50. The Spainard however, is in doubt after suffering a shoulder injury last week. Hayden is third pick at $11. Betting has been pretty quiet early in the week, with only a handful of small bets coming for Rossi. ENTERTAINMENT Ian Roberts was a $67 outsider three weeks ago but now finds himself in the final two of Dancing with the Stars. When betting opened on Wednesday there were plenty of people willing to take the $3 on offer for the former Rugby League star. Few would argue the dancing ability of Roberts is a long way short of $1.33 favourite, Tom Williams. However, as we saw in the first series with Pauline Hanson, the voting public isn’t necessarily looking for the best dancer. The plot thickens on My Restaurant Rules, where Brisbane remains the favourite at $2.50 but they have come under siege from Sydney ($3.75), Adelaide ($4) and Melbourne ($4.50). This week, most of the bets taken have been for Melbourne, while surprisingly there has been a few for Perth at $15. The Perth eatery run by Andre and Sandy looks a sure thing to be nominated for the first eviction. Given the internal problems they’re having, they’ll probably be the first to close. The Eurovision Song Contest is also open with Norway and Greece dominating the market. Norway opened at $6.50 and is already into $5 while Greece has firmed from $7 into $5.50. ELECTIONS This week we took our biggest ever bet on an overseas election, and it came from an Aussie punter! A new client from New South Wales weighed in with a bet of $100,000 for Tony Blair to remain in power after the British general election in May. The price he took was $1.06; so for his big outlay he is looking to win $6000. The favourites have a terrific record in elections but we have seen enough interest from British clients for the Conservative Party at $8.50 to suggest that things may be a little closer than what the betting prices say. Closer to home and the next election to decide who governs in the Northern Territory is expected to be called in the next few weeks. The Claire Martin Labor Party had an upset win last time over the CLP and there won't be too much between these two parties when betting opens. The recent Western Australian election saw $500,000 wagered, half of that coming from other states so it will be very interesting to see what happens on the NT election.
Until next week, good punting. For further
information contact Gerard Daffy at Centrebet on 08 89555800 or
centrebet@centrebet.com.
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