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Aussie
Rules
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Centrebet Capers
AUSTRALIAN RULES Two weeks ago Brisbane were favourites to win this year’s AFL flag and Hawthorn were odds on to win the wooden spoon so who could argue that Brisbane looked like certainties to down Hawthorn last Saturday. Not only did the Hawks win but the victory came by a whooping 46-point margin. It only proves what a nightmare season it has been for punters and tipsters around the country. The Lions went in as hot $1.25 favourites. Apart from a stack of money going through multiples we also took a few substantial bets for the Lions including $20,000 to win at the $1.25. We also took another bet of $16,000 conceding a 23 point-start. With just two favourites getting home it certainly was a weekend for the bookies although one astute client latched on to the trend of outsiders by putting $20,000 on St Kilda at $2.75 to defeat Melbourne. Despite their thrashing at the hands of Hawthorn last week one punter has placed $50,000 on Brisbane to down the unbeaten West Coast at the Gabba on Sunday. Looking back at our records, the last time the Lions were not outright favourites at home during the regular season was round 10 in 2001. That’s a long time ago but they can get some comfort out of the fact they did win that match as $3 outsiders against Essendon. Sydney v Melbourne should be a blockbuster at the SCG on Saturday night. Just by virtue of having the best form leading into the game we have awarded slight favouritism to the Demons. However, the early money has been for the Swans, including bets of $5000 and $3500 at $1.95. The Anzac Day clash between Essendon and Collingwood has opened at $1.90 for either side. We haven’t seen too much early business but that will all change by Monday. Apart from all the usual betting options we will be offering a market on the winner of the Anzac Day medal for the best player on the field. Bombers skipper, James Hird is a $5 favourite to win that. Premiership betting has gone really quiet and we can’t really blame punters for not wanting to bet as the comp is so even. We did take a $5000 bet last week for St Kilda at $10 as well as $2000 for Geelong at $11. RUGBY LEAGUE Twenty two of the forty two NRL games played so far this season have been won by outsiders but just when we thought we might have a quiet weekend punters have come out of the woodwork to go on a large betting spree. The Anzac Test on Friday night has seen all ‘one way’ business for the Kangaroos. The betting hasn’t moved with Australia at $1.15 to win the match and the handicap has been set at -16 ½. Normally there is money for the Kiwi’s in Tests when they are receiving big starts but we haven’t seen any interest in them at all this week. There’s some talk Brisbane coach Wayne Bennett will rest his Test players from Saturday night’s clash against Cronulla and punters have reacted accordingly. We originally posted both sides at $1.90 but a $20,000 bet on the Sharks at that price followed by $10,000 and $8000 at $1.88 has seen them firm into $1.85 and outright favourites. Andrew Johns is out for six weeks with a broken jaw but we think Newcastle may be able to lift for a supreme effort against the Bulldogs this week. Or at least we hope they can. As soon as betting opened on this match punters were all over the Bulldogs. In the first 24 hours of trading, close to $85,000 worth of bets forced the handicap from -8 ½ to -10 ½. RUGBY UNION One of the most anticipated matches of this year’s Super 12 tournament between New South Wales and the ACT turned out to be one of the most painful Rugby viewing experiences in recent memory. Neither side chose to utilise the skills of their respective backlines which ruined the game as a spectacle. In what proved to be a good betting game Waratahs supporters managed to celebrate both the win and a slight victory over the bookies. New Zealand heavyweights the Blues and Crusaders both came in for heavy support against lacklustre South African opposition. From the start of betting until kick-off in both fixtures we couldn’t find anyone who wanted a bar of either the Sharks or Stormers. This week the match of the round appears to be the Hurricanes at home to the Highlanders with the winner set to capture a semi final spot while the loser will be fighting for survival. The home side gives up a 4 ½ and early betting moves suggest they’ll get the cash. Punters have wasted no time launching into the Crusaders in the handicap betting against the Cats. The -24 ½ isn’t proving to be a hindrance with $7000 and $9000 among some of the larger wagers taken on this game so far. In a battle of the cellar dwellers Queensland at -7 ½ have come in for heavy support against the Sharks at Ballymore. In a match where we thought we’d struggle to write a single bet, sheer weight of money has forced the handicap out to -8 ½. GOLF Peter Lonard became the fourth Australian winner on the US PGA tour this year with victory at the MCI Heritage Classic in South Carolina. Despite a reasonable start to the year Lonard was friendless in the betting at $67 after missing the cut at the US Masters. After a topsy turvey final round battle with Darren Clarke from Northern Ireland, Lonard went on to win by two shots. After 36 holes Clarke led by six shots with one fearless punter from the UK having $10,000 on him at $1.45. Other players to feature in betting activity were Zach Johnson and Jim Furyk, both of whom were backed to win over $100,000. This week Vijay Singh has his opportunity to regain the world number one ranking as he attempts to defend his title in Houston. One South African is convinced the Fijian can do it and has put $50,000 on him to win at $4. Apart from the betting on Singh this event has been fairly quiet with a little bit of money coming for David Toms at $13 and Darren Clarke at $15. On the European Tour, Swede Peter Hanson won a play-off against countryman Peter Gustafsson to claim the Spanish Open. In a poor betting event punters shunned the Swedes and instead opted for French pair of Raphael Jacquelin and Gregory Havret at $17 and $26 respectively. The money was left with us as neither player played a significant part in the finish. This week the European tour heads to Beijing for the first time for the Johnnie Walker Classic. Ernie Els, Retief Goosen, Luke Donald and Miguel Angel Jimenez all coming in for heavy support, with each backed to win in excess of $100,000. SOCCER Manchester United and Arsenal secured a meeting with each other in the FA Cup final after disposing of Newcastle and Blackburn respectively. Both were favourites and both were bad results for us but we did take one bet of $22,000 on Newcastle to win $6.30. This will be Arsenal’s fourth final in five years while Man. United will be defending the trophy they won last year. Incredibly despite their recent domination this will be the first final meeting since the classic 1979 FA Cup final won 3-2 by Arsenal. Man. United are slight $1.85 favourites to lift the Cup next month in Cardiff. In the Tippeligaen, newly promoted Aalesund put a smile on the faces of our Norwegian punters when they scored in the 89th and 90th minute to record a 2-1 win against Odd Grenland on the opening night of their new stadium. The result cost us plenty of money as Aalesund had been heavily backed. The biggest bet being 40,000 NOK ($AUD8000) at $2.40. The big betting game of the round was Valerenga v Brann in Oslo. We had taken a bet of 40,000 NOK that the game total would be over 2.5 goals and with the score 0-0 at halftime we thought we had the cash. Two second half goals to Valerenga and one to Brann saw the total go over as well as favourite punters reap a big reward. Valerenga were heavily backed to win at $2.20. One punter would be breathing a sigh of relief after Fredrikstad held on to record a 2-1 win on Monday. This person had been betting with us 'live' on the game, and placed 50,000 NOK at 1.08 and 100,000 NOK at 1.05 on Fredrikstad to win when they led 2-0 with 30 minutes to go. Viking fought back to score, and came within inches of equalising near the finish. In early trading this week, the best backed teams have been Viking (2.00) at home to Lillestrom, and Brann (1.70) who host Tromso. FORMULA ONE The formula one season moves to Europe for the first time in 2005 after racing in Australia, Malaysia and the Middle East. Fernando Alonso lines up as $2.75 favourite to win this weekend’s San Marino grand prix in Imola and he looks mighty hard to beat having won the last two races. Punters agree as the bulk of the early activity has been for Alonso to win. Michael Schumacher is second elect at $3.50 following a disappointing start to the season. In Bahrain, Schumacher's new Ferrari improved its speed greatly in the second round of qualifying, however there is still a question mark hanging over the reliability of the car. Punters are steering clear of Schumacher this week, obviously waiting for him to get back into winning form. MOTOR BIKES Within days of saying that the MotoGP season looked to be a match between Valentino Rossi and Sete Gibernau, up bobs Alex Barros to record his first win in nearly three years! We cut his price to $3.50 after he had been $15 early in the week but punters shied away from him. Rossi maintained his status as favourite at $1.80, drawing the usual amount of support from his Italian followers. The big money was on Sete Gibernau. The $3.25 was taken for a substantial amount, led up by a bet of €2000 from an Austrian client. We also took several large bets for Gibernau to finish on the podium at $1.45, the biggest of those being $6000. Gibernau looked to have the race firmly in his keeping but slid off on one of the turns in the greasy conditions. He has shown enough over the past two weeks to say that he will win his fair share of races this season; he just has to stay on the bike until he gets across the finish line! ENTERTAINMENT My Restaurant Rules took an unexpected turn this week when favourites Brisbane were put up for nomination to close along with Melbourne and Perth. The Mint Leaf in Perth has struggled since day one and nobody would have been surprised to see them feature in the first eviction show. What has been surprising is that we have layed a lot of bets this week for Perth to win the competition, firming from $17 into $11. No doubt there is a lot of public sympathy out there for them and it’ll be interesting to see if they survive. The Sydney restaurant has taken over as the new favourite at $2.75, ahead of Adelaide at $3.00 and we have kept on the safe side of Brisbane at $3.25. The 'secret reviewer' gave Brisbane a real pasting which was in contradiction to everything that we have seen over the past couple of weeks. The X Factor has copped plenty of criticism due to poor ratings but we can report there has been pretty solid interest in the series from a betting perspective. Random have been the favourites now for three weeks in a row and close to $3000 worth of bets has seen their price tumble from $2.75 into $2.25. The all girl group 'Kaya' has also met with plenty of support including a bet of $1500 at $4.50. However, after just missing eviction from the show this week, we have turned their price out to $6. On Tuesday night, Dancing with the Stars was decided and while hot favourite Tom Williams looked the winner on form, there was plenty of late money for Ian Roberts. Wiser heads prevailed with Williams getting enough of the public vote to see him walk away with the major prize. SPECIAL EVENTS Conventional wisdom says that the International Olympic Committee will not award the 2012 Games to New York City but our punters are betting as if the Big Apple has a legitimate chance in spite of the fact that another North American metropolis (Vancouver) will play to host to the 2010 Winter Games. New York City mayor Michael Bloomberg (yes, he is the man behind the financial news organisation of the same name) is throwing his considerable weight behind the Big Apple's tender and it is making ground on favourite Paris ahead of the vote in Singapore on July 6. Our clients are not concerned that the IOC is examining the financial incentives that London and New York City presented at a Berlin conference this week to determine whether they violated the strict bidding rules. What they see is the Big Apple pulling out all stops to sell its bid and establish itself as a serious contender. London mayor Ken Livingstone thinks the contest is between Paris and his beloved town but we wouldn’t bet on that. New York City is closing fast. Until next week, good punting For
further information contact Gerard Daffy at Centrebet on 02 9206 8715 or
centrebet@centrebet.com
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