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Aussie
Rules
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Centrebet Capers
AUSTRALIAN RULES The 73 point hiding dished out to the Brisbane Lions has left them at the bottom of the table and while we don't expect any takers for the $12 on offer for the flag maybe there will be some bites at the $26 for the wooden spoon. We were stunned to see the continued support for the Lions to beat the West Coast on Sunday following on from Hawthorn's defeat by the Kangaroos. We expected the Lions money to dry up given they were belted by Hawthorn last week. The opposite proved to be the case with bets of $25,000, $12,000 and three bets of $10,000 coming for Brisbane forcing their price into $1.80 at kick off. Another relatively close betting game to start with turned rather ugly for punters at the weekend. We couldn't keep the public off the Sydney Swans, who were at home to Melbourne. A $20,000 bet at $2 got the ball rolling, which was followed by a wager of $14,000 at $1.95 and the support was still coming at $1.85 when the game started. The Bulldogs finally showed what they were capable of when beating Adelaide by 31 points. The Dogs were down by 19 points at half time but kicked nine straight goals in the third term to reward those faithful who had backed them from $2.60 into $2.20. Adelaide were virtually unlayable in this game, as nearly every astute AFL judge ploughed into the Bulldogs in what was a very ordinary result for us. Most of the home sides are heavy favourites in the upcoming round but as we have already seen this year, the favouritism tag means nothing. West Coast, St Kilda, Melbourne and Geelong are at the helm of premiership betting and all go in as hot public elects in their respective matches. St Kilda have impressed punters judging by early betting in the game against Collingwood. The $1.14 has been snapped up with bets of $20,000 and $10,000. Possibly the best two betting matches of the round, will see last year's grand finalists trying to get their seasons back on track. Essendon may have turned the corner with a win on Monday and on current form, we rate them a strong chance to beat Brisbane. The money has come both ways in this game. Lots of little bets for Essendon at $2.10 but the larger bets, including $10,000 and $6000 have been for Brisbane. The same applies in the Richmond v Port Adelaide match where we’ve taken early bets of $5000 and $3800 for Port at $1.55. However, there has been a good push in some quarters for Richmond at $2.45. RUGBY LEAGUE The betting frenzy on Rugby League matches continued last weekend which was highlighted by the ANZAC Test. Betting topped $250,000 on the Test with all the money for the Kangaroos at $1.16 and punters keen to concede 16 ½ points. The game was also popular with punters keen to back “the over” 48 ½ in total match points. There’s no need to elaborate on how well the 32-16 scoreline was received by punters. How unlucky to be pipped on the post on both occasions. Punters did get their revenge in the first NRL match on Saturday with Parramatta starting at $1.47 and conceding 6 ½ start against the Wests Tigers. Our final bet just prior to kick off was $20,000 on the Eels conceding the start. With the final score 26-16 to the Eels the punters had bounced back. Cronulla came in for huge support against Brisbane at home on the back of the withdrawal of Tony Carroll and Petro Civoniceva for the Broncos. After opening at $1.90 the Sharks firmed into $1.67 just prior to kick off. The Broncos did have a little bit of support at $2.20 including one wager of $10,000. The other big betting match of the round was the Bulldogs v Newcastle. The Dogs were backed almost to the exclusion of the Knights including one bet of $40,000 at $1.30. There was some smart money around for Newcastle with the 11 ½ start and at fulltime with the Bulldogs winning 24-20 the ledger was almost square. Another interesting week of betting kicks off on Friday night with Brisbane hosting competition frontrunners Manly at Suncorp Stadium. The Broncos are $1.40 favourites and must concede 8 ½ point-start. The most interesting game of the round is at Telstra Stadium on Saturday night with the Bulldogs hosting Parramatta. The Eels have firmed from $2.40 into $2.25 and the 4 ½ start is also being snapped up. The Bulldogs on the other hand are friendless in the betting and have drifted out to $1.65. RUGBY UNION The commentators from Durban to Christchurch unilaterally thought bookmakers were giving money away when we posted a 24 ½ point handicap for the Crusaders to overcome against the hapless Cats. Punters launched into the -24 ½ and drove it out to -26 ½ just prior to kick off at Jade Stadium. However, the Cats managed to get the lead a few times during the match before going down by four points, which gave us one of the better results for the 2005 tournament. A late betting plunge from some of our more informed New Zealand clients managed to turn the tables in favour of the punters when the Highlanders downed the Hurricanes by 26-16 in Wellington. This week throws up a couple of interesting contests and we are more than willing to take the punters on. The first placed Waratahs take on the third placed Highlanders, with good judges saying the Tahs will struggle in Dunedin. Punters agree with that assessment and have bet over $20,000 on an Otago win. The price for the home team has firmed already from $1.90 and the early indications are New South Wales won’t have too many followers. Elsewhere the Crusaders are almost back to full strength against the Sharks in Christchurch and are giving up 22 ½ start. Although the market has been quiet so far we are predicting a flood of money for the home team. The Hurricanes are hosting the Brumbies in a game that is proving hard to asses. The Brumbies will go into the game with the benefit of 3 ½ start but their depth will be well and truly tested with no Gregan, Larkham, Fava or Rathbone. There’s been little interest early in this one with punters very wary. In the best betting match of the round the Bulls host the Blues with both teams well supported. In early trading the Bulls who are at home, have received bets of $10,000 and $5,000 to win while one New Zealand punter is confident the Blues will get the money and has put $10,000 on the line. GOLF The horror run on Golf events continued for Centrebet when Vijay Singh defended his Houston Open title last weekend. Singh was backed for plenty at $4 heading into the event, including one wager of $50,000 at that price. It was his second victory on the US PGA Tour this year and places him second behind Phil Mickleson on the money list. Apart from the backing for Singh it was a relatively poor betting event proving that punters really know their golf. The US Tour heads to New Orleans this week for the Zurich Classic where Vijay Singh is again the defending champion. He has been installed as $3.50 favourite and given his current form it’s hard to argue. Our winning client has backed Singh again this week to the tune of $60,000. Vijay defeated Joe Ogilvie by a shot in last year’s event and given that Ogilvie finished in a tie for sixth in Houston he looks good value at $26. Others in the market include Padraig Harrington $12, David Toms $13 and Chris Di Marco at $16. Adam Scott recorded his second win for the year when he claimed the Johnnie Walker Classic in Beijing. The Aussie had few admirers at $13 with all the interest in the South African pair of Retief Goosen and Ernie Els. The money wasn’t too wide of the mark with the pair finishing second and equal sixth respectively. The European tour remains in Asia this week for the BMW Asian Open where Els is again favourite at $4 ahead of Englishman Luke Donald at $9. Both have been backed to win over $100,000 but Els has been inconsistent of late and there’s plenty of depth in the field so a surprise winner is not out of the question. FORMULA ONE Fernando Alonso made it three wins on the trot when he won the San Marino Grand Prix at the weekend. While Alonso was the opening favourite he didn't line up the public elect with Kimi Raikonnen starting from pole position. The 'Flying Finn' replaced Alonso at the head of betting and we took two large bets of €4000 for him to win at $2.60 and another of $6000 to finish on the podium at $1.35. Raikonnen had to withdraw after 53 laps when looking the winner. Michael Schumacher put up a Herculean performance to come from 13th on the grid to finish a very close second. He started the race as a $13 chance but those odds won’t be around again judging by his lap times. Schumacher clocked nearly a second a lap quicker than Alonso in the closing stages, so a win can’t be too far away for Ferrari. SUPERBIKES Aussie Troy Corser, riding a Suzuki, completely dominated the third round of the Superbikes held in Valencia at the weekend. Corser opened at $1.80 to win both races. There were a few nibbles at that quote with the largest being $2000 to win both races. He was $1.40 when they lined up on the grid with another $5000 in bets coming from Australian punters. Those punters never had any worries at all as Corser won the first race by six seconds and then won the second race by a similar margin. He already has a 31 point lead in the championship and punters can expect to see very short odds from here on in. ENTERTAINMENT We all felt a little bit sorry for the Mint Leaf in 'My Restaurant Rules' but it seems as though the voting public didn't have enough sympathy to keep them on the show. Perth were well backed to win overall in the past two weeks, firming from $17 into $13 but that money is dead and buried. It is hard to know where to look when setting prices for MRR as it is about so much more than the food that is served. It’s all about the personalities that are involved and at the end of the day it becomes more of a popularity contest. At the moment, we have Sydney as the favourites at $2.75, narrowly ahead of Brisbane and Adelaide at $3.25 with Melbourne outsiders at $5. Until next week, good punting For
further information contact Gerard Daffy at Centrebet on 02 9206 8715 or
centrebet@centrebet.com
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