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Aussie
Rules
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Centrebet Capers
RUGBY LEAGUE The big issue in Rugby League over the past week has been the Andrew Johns betting story. Unless you had been on Mars, it would have been hard to miss the fallout from a betting plunge on the Warriors getting a big start against the Knights in last week’s match. Many punters latched onto the rumour that Johns had hurt his neck at training and was going to be a doubtful starter. That sparked a nationwide plunge on the Warriors and we took bets of $15,000 at 16 ½ and 14 ½ points start and a couple of $10,000 bets with 15 points start, in amongst a lot of smaller ones. Now we have all been around long enough to know that there would not be a day go by where this type of thing doesn't go on, in any code around the world. Sometimes we (the bookies) are the first to find out, sometimes the last. That is the great uncertainty of sports betting. As it turned out, we had a very good result on the match. The original handicap of -15 ½ had moved to 16 after we had taken money for the Knights. On Sunday when it was announced that Johns was out, fresh betting opened with Newcastle at 1.40 and the handicap -7½ points. There was a truckload of money for the Knights and in the finish we were desperate for Warriors win. It was quite surprising to read that some bookmakers actually claimed to have been wiped out on the game. Anyway, as a by-product of that we as yet haven't opened the Dragons v Knights match for this week. There isn't much point really as with Johns in, the betting will see the Dragons the slightest of favourites, while if he is out, then handicap will be in the vicinity of 8-10 points in favour of the Dragons. The replay of last year’s Grand Final will take place tonight (Friday) and the Cowboys are 1.42 to avenge that defeat. There has been money both ways but the bigger punters are happy to stick with the Cowboys, possibly as the Tigers have had to back up from playing last Sunday. North Queensland is our new premiership favourite at 5.00 and a big win here can only seem them shorten further. GOLF The Bellsouth Classic is the lead up event for this week’s Masters at Augusta and traditionally is won by players who are reaching the peak of form at the right time. Phil Mickelson's record breaking win was certainly no exception. Taking that into account it makes Mickelson the form player coming into this week’s Masters and realistically the player best equipped to stop Tiger Woods from winning his fifth green jacket. Combined they have won four of the last five Masters, punctuated by a win from Mike Weir in 2003. Fair to assume that if you are a left hander or Tiger Woods your chance of winning this year’s Masters is greatly improved. Betting on this year’s Masters has been frenetic, generated by the uncertainty over the world number one's fitness and motivation. Mickelson has been backed to win over $100,000 at different prices, ranging from his opening quote of 10.00 a couple of weeks ago, into his current price of 7.00. Woods still holds tournament favouritism at 4.00 from Mickelson however he has been very difficult to lay which is quite surprising given his liking for the course and his competitive spirit which will ensure he gives nothing more than 110%. Next in the betting is Ernie Els at 10.00 from Vijay Singh at 12.00 however, both have been hard to lay, while best backed has been Australian Geoff Ogilvy at 61.00, Robert Allenby at 67.00, Weir at 51.00 and 1994 winner, Jose Maria Olazabal at 41.00, all backed to win in excess of $100,000. It is Mickelson however who remains the public elect. Apart from Winner and Top 5 books we have a host of betting options including Tournament Winning Score, Lowest Round Score and Nationality of the Winner, all of which have captured the interest of the betting public. Throw in Group Winners, Make/Miss the Cut and Four ball/Best balls along with our standard betting options and there is something of interest to bet on for everyone. Let’s hope the tournament remains as interesting as the betting options AUSTRALIAN RULES It was round one to the bookies on AFL when only four of the eight favourites won with the big result being Carlton's win over Melbourne. The Blues had been solid 2.20 chances to run last but looked anything but cellar dwellers when defeating the Demons. Carlton did land some healthy bets, including $8000 at 3.65 and two $5000 wagers at 3.60, but they were still a very handy result. Melbourne had a bet of $40,000 placed on them at 1.31 on game day. Another $40,000 wager was taken on the round and it was a winner when the West Coast defeated St Kilda. The price taken was 1.57 but we still recorded a good win on the game when there was a late splurge for St Kilda, both to win and with 12 points start. Three bets of $10,000 were placed on the Saints with the start and a lot of smaller bets. The biggest bet for the round was a $50,000 bet on Geelong to win at 1.50 and that was well and truly spent early in their match against Brisbane. We also took a set against Essendon (not very smart?) when they went into the game against Sydney without James Hird. It didn't seem a big enough price change when you consider that they were 1.80 with Hird in, yet only 1.90 without him. Bets of $23,800, $20,000 and a couple of $10,000, all at prices between 1.80 and 1.95 , went on Essendon but there was any amount of money fro the Swans, who came in from slight outsiders to start favourites at 1.85. Last year, Richmond was belted in round one by Geelong and then went on to win seven in a row. Hopefully history repeats itself as the Tigers are 4.25 to beat St Kilda tonight. The Saints are returning from the West and a lot of those sides get beaten at their next start, so we live in hope. Early bets of $12,000 and $7500 have arrived for St Kilda and of course they have been coupled up in nearly every multi including one of $250,000 for Friday night football. One punter has included the Saints in the AFL, Cowboys in the NRL and Crusaders in the Super 14 to win just over $500,000. There should be an interesting tussle in Brisbane on Saturday night when the Lions host Essendon. Brisbane are the favourites here at 1.70 and we have seen money for Essendon even though in their last four trips to the Gabba they have come away winless. The main match of the round will be on Sunday when Adelaide meets the West Coast. The Crows had a big win over Collingwood on Monday night although they had some sluggish patches. The Eagles beat the St Kilda last week but this is a real grudge match, and we think the Crows will come away with the points. The Eagles have only won two games from their last ten appearances at AAMI Stadium, and showed last week that they still have problems up forward. We are trying to get money in the till for the Eagles, but it has been a struggle with bets of only $1800 and $1000 arriving at 2.30 in the first 36 hours of betting. CRICKET Australia won the third Test against South Africa to make a clean sweep of the series 3-0, but even though the Aussies were the favourites for the majority of the Test match, we managed to record a small victory. This Test certainly wasn't up there as one of the biggest ever betting matches but there was plenty of interest, especially before the start of the last day. It was at this stage that Australia needed 44 runs with four wickets remaining but two of those players, Michael Kasprowicz and Justin Langer, were doubtful starters to front. South Africa were backed from 3.50 into 2.90 at this stage, including three best of $4000, but we also took a bet of $31,000 for Australia to win at 1.31. It was an exciting passage of play which saw Australia get home and thankfully the concussed Langer wasn't required to bat. The Australian top order and quick bowlers now get an opportunity to improve their statistics when they travel to Bangladesh for a two match Test series beginning this weekend. Last time the Bangladesh played a series (the first) against Australia, the two Tests were played in Darwin and Cairns. The minnows were smashed but that was to be expected. The same thing will probably occur again this time, but we will be without McGrath, Kasprowicz, Tait and Langer. That will hopefully avoid an embarrassing series. In the first Test, we have posted Australia at 1.10, the draw at 7.50, and Bangladesh at 26.00. Amazingly we have taken a handful of small bets for the outsiders to win but also have taken bets of $20,000 and $10,000 for Australia. FOOTBALL One Australian punter would have been glued to the television in the return leg of the Lyon v AC Milan Champions League match on Tuesday night. He had placed a $40,000 multi at a dividend of 5.41 for the Waratahs to beat the Cheetahs in the Super 14, the West Coast and Geelong to win their respective AFL matches, Man United to beat West Ham in the Premier League and rounded it off with AC Milan to progress to the semi finals of the Champions League. The first four all won, so it was all riding on AC Milan, who didn't let him down when they defeated Lyon 3-1 on aggregate, reaping him a $216,000 windfall. This week is the first round of Norwegian Tippeligaen. It has been extremely busy with a lot of interest coming from some of our Asian clients. Every match will see the home side go in as favourites, but a couple of the 'away' sides have attracted massive bets. Viking are away to Ham-Kam and have had a bet of $50,000 (250,000 NOK) placed on them at the draw no bet option of 2.05. Lillestrom looked very strong last year but a season ending injury to Michael Mifsud ruined their chances of lifting the trophy. He is back now, and they have also signed striker Oliver Occean from Odd, and are our tip to win the title. Third favourite Valerenga, last year’s winner has lost Iversen to Rosenborg, so we think they will struggle. FORMULA ONE Even though he didn't qualify quickest, Fernando Alonso landed a huge plunge when he defeated Kimi Raikkonen in the Australian Grand Prix. Alonso qualified third on the grid behind Jenson Button and Giancarlo Fisichella and we considered that 3.25 was a reasonable quote. We were bombarded with bets all the way down to 2.50 at race time, including €3000 (3.25), €5000 (3.00) and a bet of $8000 at 2.60. It was however a gigantic betting race with Button attracting a bet of $7500 at 5.00 and Fischella being backed to win $50,000 at 5.50 by one of our regular F1 clients. While the race winner betting was a poor result for Centrebet, the podium placing and top eight markets fell the right way. Punters pretty much ignored the place chances of Raikkonen (1.80), thinking he would either win or not finish, while third place getter, Ralf Schumacher was an 8.00 shot who drew only a handful bets. One client was entitled to fell robbed as he had placed $14,000 on Button to run in the top eight at 1.30. He was going to finish in fourth position when his motor blew up 200 metres short of the finish and his Honda just couldn't limp over the line. DANCING WITH THE STARS Every red blooded Aussie male was in mourning on Wednesday of this week when they discovered that Jennifer Hawkins was voted out of Dancing with the Stars. Even host Daryl Somers looked like he had been hit between the eyes with a sledge hammer when the announcement was made but we did allude to that possibility last week when we said that all of a sudden Jen had fallen foul of punters. There was some money for her to be thrown out at 16.00 although Noelene Brown was the main go for punters as she firmed from 2.50 into 1.65 to go. So, now there are five left and a lot is riding on the next show. For those who aren't aware, Kate Langbroek's Nova radio sidekick, Dave Hughes, has plonked $1000 at $11.00 for Kate to make it to the final four. Kate has been the outsider to win the competition all the way through but her love/hate relationship with the judges has worked in her favour. Not only do we expect her to be in the final four, she may even go all the way! She is now into 13.00 to win and there is money for her at that price. As far as the top of the betting goes, Grant Denyer has displaced Toby Allen at the head of proceedings and is now the 2.00 favourite ahead of Toby at 2.10. LOGIES AWARDS The format for voting on the Logies has changed this year so that now allows us to get back into betting on some of the winners. Normally the winners are decided by the votes that are compiled by TV Week but this year the public can vote right up until the final day, so we can accept bets for a longer period of time. It also changes how the betting prices come about as we think veteran actor John Wood is the one to beat for the Gold Logie. Wood has been around for a long time and many have been bemused by the fact that while he has been in the final field for ten years he has never won gold. For that reason alone we decided he should be favourite at 3.50 but we also feel he will get a stack of votes due to the controversial axing of Blue Heelers. Bert Newton has been everywhere since he switched to Channel 9 and he is second elect at 4.00, just ahead of Rove McManus, who has attracted good early support at 4.50. In reality, any one of the eight could win and that has been reflected in the betting with all eight meeting with support in the first 48 hours of betting. One thing that has been interesting is that Bec Hewitt has been the worst backed of those nominees, surprising when you consider that Bec seems to fill the papers every day. The NRL Footy Show is hot favourite at 1.50 to win back to back Most Popular Sports Program Logie. Fatty Vautin and his mates won the coveted award last year in what was seen as an upset win over the AFL Footy Show but with Eddie McGuire gone from the Melbourne show, punters think the Logie will be staying in Sydney.
Until next week, good punting For further information contact Gerard Daffy at Centrebet on 02 9206 8715 or centrebet@centrebet.com
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