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Aussie
Rules
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Centrebet Capers
RUGBY LEAGUE At least this week we know one thing, Andrew Johns is definitely out of the Knights side so they will go to Melbourne as underdogs. Not surprisingly we have found it hard to find anyone who wants to throw some cash down on them this week, especially in light of what has happened over the past month. They were beaten by New Zealand when he didn't play and the Cowboys over-ran them last week after Johns rolled his ankle. In last week’s match, it seemed as though the North Queensland punters didn't want to participate because their team were taking on Newcastle. They drifted from 2.60 out to 2.90 on game day with the Knights carrying some big bets, including one of $24,000 at 1.45. There was plenty of money won on St George Illawarra when they defeated Manly by two points on Saturday. For the first three days of betting, it had been all Manly, but that all changed on Saturday afternoon. The Dragons were backed from 2.12 into 1.95 including two $20,000 bets on the way in. They quickly went from being a good result to a bad one. Parramatta has been under the media spotlight for the past three weeks and it will intensify if they are beaten by the Tigers on Friday night. The Tigers have been ravaged by injuries and although they crushed Cronulla last week, they go in at a healthy 2.75 on Friday. Cronulla haven't put a full 80 minutes together yet this year but we have a sneaking suspicion they will serve it up to the Cowboys on Saturday night. Given the form of the two sides the Cowboys look overs at 1.35 but there hasn't really been any early activity for them yet. The Bulldogs v Manly match will be something to look forward to on Sunday. Both sides are in form and have big supporter bases in the punting ranks. We thought that the early money would be for the Bulldogs, but it has been Manly who have had bets of $5000 and $2000 (twice) placed on them at 2.05. AUSTRALIAN RULES Although five of the eight favourites won round three of the AFL it was a weekend that went the way of the bookies after the shock loss by Geelong. The Cats were lining up for their third win on end all at home and were 1.11. Naturally there was a small fortune going through them in weekend multiples but we did take a bet of $150,000 for Geelong to win outright at the prohibitive odds. There was another of $30,000 at the same quote and Hawthorn provided us with one of our best ever AFL results. In a fabulous weekend of betting, the Eagles landed a winning $75,000 bet at 1.12 when the defeated Richmond, Sydney a $33,000 wager at 1.60 and the Bulldogs a $25,000 bet at 1.58 before they beat Essendon. Fremantle weren't missed either as they came in for heavy support. We opened the Dockers at 3.60 and the closing price was 2.90. $10,000 bets were taken at 3.60, 3.50 and 3.20 and although we did see money for Port Adelaide as we chased them out to 1.40 it was a losing result. This week’s round will stretch over five days with Carlton up against Hawthorn on Friday night, and the round finishing on Anzac Day when Essendon play Collingwood in their annual fixture. Carlton will be without Brendan Fevola and they are 2.80 with very few interested in taking it. If Hawthorn plays up to last week’s performance, then they will surely win. Brisbane would normally be unbackable at home against Richmond but the Lions are struggling, and that is reflected in the price. We opened them at 1.25 with Richmond at 3.80 but the first $4000 bet on the game was all for Richmond. On Sunday, we can't see any reason why Melbourne won't beat Sydney. The Swans won last week but are struggling. We fail to see how Sydney will be able to combat the centre clearances by Jeff White so we are taking the Swans on. One early bet of $7000 has been taken at 1.60 but that is about the extent of it. FORMULA ONE After a few weeks off the F1's are back in action this weekend in the San Marino Grand Prix. The early money has come for Michael Schumacher to show rapid improvement and he has been backed to win nearly $20,000, firming from 6.00 into 5.00. The German was runner-up in this race last year behind Fernando Alonso but more importantly he drove the quickest lap. With a couple of weeks of testing behind them, it will be interesting to see if they have improved any from what we have seen so far this season. Alonso is favourite to win again at 2.50 but although he is the championship leader and won impressively in Melbourne, nobody is keen on him at that price. Kimi Raikkonen is equal second pick at 5.00 with Schumacher and he has met with support at that quote. Raikkonnen qualified quickest in this Grand Prix last year but withdrew early in the race. Giancarlo Fisichella is the other driver who has been targeted by punters. We have taken bets to lose nearly $30,000 for Fisichella, who has come into 7.00 after opening at 8.00. Felipe Massa, the other Ferrari driver has attracted a bet of €8000 to finish in the top eight at 2.00, while a few faithful Aussies have taken the 8.00 for Mark Webber to finish on the podium. GOLF Last week we thought an Australian might be able to keep the Verizon Heritage trophy 'down under' and we were correct. We just didn't think it would be Aaron Baddeley who would carry off the feat. Baddeley was friendless in the betting at 151.00 and it was no surprise given his form this year. He had only one top 20 finish in seven starts this season and had missed three cuts. Put that on top of nine missed cuts in the last fourteen events of last year and you can see why punters had steered clear of him. While Baddeley was friendless in the betting so too were favourite Ernie Els at 8.00 and American Jim Furyk at 13.00 and yet the three dominated the betting at the completion of round three. Furyk was all the rage at 1.85 from Baddeley at 3.50 with Ernie Els at 6.50 lurking just four shots off the pace. It’s now history that Els could not get a final round charge going and that the Australian called on all his experience from his two Australian Opens to hold out the likeable American for a one shot victory. Others well supported including Olazabal, Cink and Carl Pettersson all failed to threaten which was a pleasant surprise, given their Masters form and the form of punters in general in recent weeks. This week we head west for the Shell Houston Open where Vijay Singh is defending champion. There must be something in the Texas air which inspires Singh as he has been successful here three times in the last four years. For that reason he has been installed favourite at 5.00 ahead of David Toms at 12.00 and then Darren Clarke, Padraig Harrington and Mike Weir all at 17.00. Best backed has been a host of roughies including Vaughn Taylor at 41.00, Brandt Jobe at 81.00, Harrison Frazar, Brett Quigley and John Senden at 101.00, and Bob Estes at $126 all to win in excess of $50,000. Our tip is Stuart Appleby at 26.00 to keep the hot Aussie form rolling. Appleby was winner here back in 1999 however he was also runner-up last year and with four top 25 finishes in eight start this year including 19th at the Masters he has the necessary armoury to win here again. DANCING WITH THE STARS The Nova crew missed out on a $10,000 windfall when Kate Langbroek was voted out on Tuesday night but they got a terrific run for their money. It was quite a strange week as Kate wasn't the favourite to go. In fact she was third pick at 4.00. Noelene Brown was the fav at 1.80 and there has been a good push for Kostya Tszyu, who firmed form 6.00 into 3.50. That leaves four and with couples having to do two dances next week, the final is looming and betting is heating up. We made mention last week of the punter who backed Kostya to win nearly $7000 at 12.00 and he has come back again this week with another $500 at 8.00. Grant Denyer's stunning performance on Tuesday has seen his price cut even further and he is now 1.61 to walk away with the crown. Toby Allen has eased out to 2.75 with no takers, while Noelene Brown is the outsider at 26.00. Until next week, good punting For further information contact Gerard Daffy at Centrebet on 02 9206 8715 or centrebet@centrebet.com
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