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Aussie
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Centrebet Capers
RUGBY LEAGUE NRL punters and tipsters fared a little better than their AFL counterparts last weekend when five of the seven favourites won, with the shock win by Cronulla over the Cowboys providing the bookies with some much needed relief. Cronulla needed to improve on what we had seen this year and they did, in a terrific come from behind win. The Cowboys were a massive 'go' by punters on the day of the game even though Travis Norton was ruled out. That puts the Sharks back on tracK and has seen the Cowboys drift out slightly in premiership betting. Those who follow the early money got a little bonus on Sunday when Manly defeated the Bulldogs. Early in the week Manly had been solidly supported but game day saw practically every bet go on the Bulldogs. As each week passes, the Sea Eagles look a better outfit with Matt Orford directing traffic and they have now been cut to 9.00 to win the title. The Dragons are a different side when Matthew Head plays and with him in doubt this week we are keen to take the Dragons on against Melbourne. Melbourne has won their last five home matches against the Dragons, including that memorable 70-10 win back in 2000. Obviously the playing personal has changed, but it is a record that the Dragons would be well aware of. The Raiders have only won four of their last 14 on the road and are coming off the bye. That can only lead to misery as they trek north to take on the Broncos. Brisbane is the hottest favourite for the round (1.18) and should justify the short odds with a win. Punters were impressed with the 1.90 that we opened with for the Bulldogs to win in Auckland but we don't share their confidence. The Dogs have won the last two at Ericsson Stadium, but they are nowhere near the side of last year. As far as consistency goes, the Warriors aren't much better but we think their big forwards will see them come away with the two points. Is Parramatta back? That is the big question and all will be answered on Sunday. Punters don't think so and either do we. Manly has been really well backed at 1.65. The Eels won both encounters last year but while they have slipped, Manly is now a force. For those who haven't picked up on it this game will be at the SCG but in our book it won't matter - Manly to win. AUSTRALIAN RULES No matter which way you looked at it picking all eight winners in last week’s AFL was nearly impossible Four favourites won, four home sides won and four away sides won so whichever method you use, the eight winners were hard to find. The Tigers gave bookies the result of the round when they repeated last year’s dose by beating the Lions in Brisbane. It was some compensation as the Bulldogs had landed a massive plunge early in the day (one bet of $150,000 with Centrebet) when they staggered over the line against Geelong. Port Adelaide did it again when they improved out of site to beat St Kilda. Port had won their last eight against the Saints and it just goes to prove that sometimes statistics don't lie. Monday saw punters get all the cash when Collingwood were backed from 1.50 into 1.40 and also cover a 15 point handicap when they defeated Essendon. The Magpies have zoomed right up the ladder in premiership betting and have looked good in all of their wins. This week, apart from the Swans v Geelong match all home sides are the favourites. Geelong is a slight favourite as they go to Telstra Stadium to try and avenge the defeat that put them out of the finals last year. The Cats looked a bit flimsy with most of their spine out of the side last week and with Sydney copping it in the media due to their form we are tipping the Swans. The Western Bulldogs are still sitting perched at the top of the ladder undefeated along with the Eagles but we think that winning run will come to an end on Saturday. They travel to AAMI Stadium to take on the Crows and it hasn't been a happy hunting ground for the Dogs as they have lost their last seven matches there. Finally, Hawthorn has been the 'money' side this week. The Hawks were the first side that punters jumped all over when betting opened and we see this one going to favourite backers. In both matches at the MCG last year, Hawthorn were big underdogs and won the second match after going down by two points in round one. From what we have seen this year, Hawthorn does look the winner of this game. FORMULA ONE Hopefully there were a few punters who followed the lead we gave last week in relation to the San Marino Grand Prix. Michael Schumacher had been the driver that some of the astute F1 followers had been after and of course he had finished second the previous year at Imola. During that race he had driven the quickest lap and considering that was the only time for the whole season that Ferrari made an impression, it only made sense that he had a chance this year. Clearly Schumacher has an affinity with the tight track; the only problem was we should have listened to ourselves. The German qualified quickest and started the race as a 1.90 chance. The 6.00 available early in the week was then huge overs but we took block at the short quote and paid the penalty. Most of the big bets came from Italy and Austria, led up by €6000 at 2.25, €2500 at 2.10 and two bets of €4000 at 2.00. Schumacher edged out early favourite Fernando Alonso at the finish but Alonso firmed up further in championship betting with his second. He is now into 1.33 (from 1.50) with Schumacher next in line at 5.00. MOTOR BIKES Valentino Rossi bounced back to win the second race of the season in Qatar and will go into this week’s Turkish MotoGP as odds on favourite. Loris Capirossi won the first race of the season but Rossi was back to his best in Qatar, even though he was shunned by punters at 2.20. That is not the case this week with two early bets of $1000 going on the Italian at 1.65. Capirossi is second pick at 5.00 but hasn't drawn any support. Nicky Hayden was runner-up in Qatar and was placed second in this race last year behind Marco Melandri. He is on the third line of betting at 6.00, while Melandri is 13.00 to go back to back. Australian Casey Stoner was a close up fifth in Qatar and is steadily improving each race. He is a 15.00 chance to win but perhaps is better placed to fill a podium position at 4.00. BIG BROTHER The 2006 series of Australian Big Brother got under way last Sunday night and if anyone doubted the popularity of this series, then they should have a look at the betting figures that we have. In the first 24 hours of trading once the housemates were known close to $5000 was invested and every single housemate attracted a series of bets. It was pretty easy coming up with the favourite. It had to be David and we had him at 3.50 but he was backed into 3.25. David is a farmer as has been the case with the last couple of opening favourites. Then when news leaked out on Monday that he was possibly gay as well, we had to cut the price as punters were keen to get on. It is still very early days yet but he does look to have all the qualities that the voters are looking for. It will also be interesting to see how the females go in this series. They are all 'stunners' and as we have said plenty of times in the past it is the good looking females who get voted out as soon as they are nominated. For that reason we have made Karen, the mother in the house, the shortest female at 9.00 and there has been good support for her. Karen's daughter, Krystal has been the best backed of the females at 11.00 but nearly every bet has come from a male punter. This is going to be an extremely interesting series. DANCING WITH THE STARS The order of betting to win DWTS hasn't changed since this week's show apart from the fact that Kostya Tszyu is a pretty decent firmer in the betting. Noelene Brown was shown the door this week and was the 1.45 favourite to go. That leaves three males left in the competition. Kostya has been in the middle order of betting since the series began but is a popular personality. He is easily our worst result and last week when he was 8.00, he was backed to take out another $8000. Grant Denyer continues to attract the backing of favourite punters and is now into 1.72, while all of a sudden Toby Allen, who is clearly the best dancer, is out of favour with the betting public and has blown out to 3.50. A good case could be put up why any of the three could take out the final but at this point in time our money is on Grant. LOGIE AWARDS The NRL Footy Show and Rove McManus are the two big firmers in Logie betting this week. Rove is now into 2.25 after being 2.50 for most of last week but I am sure that a lot of those who have been betting are unaware of the way the votes are gathered this year. We took nearly $2000 for Rove at the 2.50 but we continue to see money for John Wood at 3.25. Of the females, Kate Ritchie (15.00) and Ada Nicodemou (7.50) have been the two best backed but nowhere near the extent of Rove and John Wood. The NRL Footy Show is into 1.30 from 1.50 to take out the Most Popular Sports Program Logie. The most recent bet was $1500 at 1.40. There has also been money for the AFL version of the same show at 4.00. Until next week, good punting For further information contact Gerard Daffy at Centrebet on 02 9206 8715 or centrebet@centrebet.com
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