Last
week I talked about how the House comes up with a pointspread and
what it represents. Preseason football is the first opportunity we
have to bet pointspreads each year (in the bookmaking world, your year
starts in August) so naturally that is the topic for this week.
Unlike
college football where there is no preseason, the pros play four or
five games to work out the kinks before the regular season starts.
Coaches use these games to sharpen skills that are tough to work on in
practice (special teams, tackling, etc.), to determine starting
positions, to test new offensive or defensive formations and to
practice new plays at game speed among other things. Some coaches are
also under pressure to perform well in preseason to help sell tickets
or to gain a little job security. Starting players use the preseason
to sharpen their skills and improve their timing while rookies and
backups try and gain starting positions. Unlike the regular season,
where winning every game is everyone's goal, the preseason features a
variety of mindsets for players and coaches alike. This is the key to
making money betting on preseason football - understanding the
motivation for every player and coach on a team.
Lets
use the opening game between Washington and San Francisco (played in
Japan on August 3rd) as an example. The 49ers were 12-4 last year (two
of their losses were to the powerhouse St. Louis Rams), their key
personnel on offense are all returning (QB Jeff Garcia, RB Garrison
Hearst, WRs Terrell Owens and JJ Stokes) and the team understands the
philosophy and playbook of their coaching staff. The 'Skins were just
8-8 last year (although they did finish 8-3), have a new coach (their
fourth in less than two years) who emphasized the passing game in
college so they have a whole new playbook to learn and will have to so
without any of last year's QBs (Tony Banks, Jeff George and Kent
Graham who is now with Houston) or leading receiver (Michael Westbrook
who is now with Cincinnati). The two teams had unimpressive preseason
records in 2001. Both teams were 1-3, but Washington failed to cover a
single pointspread while the 49ers were 2-2 ATS (against-the-spread).
On paper the 49ers had to be the favorite team and the opening line
was San Francisco -2.5 based on talent alone.
Early
action was very light as bettors waited to hear how the coaches would
approach the game. It became evident very quickly via interviews that
Washington's rookie coach Steve Spurrier was going to play his
starters much longer than the 49er starters, especially on offense
where his playbook is very complex and key starting roles have yet to
be determined. He was going to use this game to teach the playbook to
the entire offensive unit as well as evaluate the best players for
starting roles. Washington also has a new defensive outlook with
former Ravens defensive whiz Marvin Lewis at the helm and he too was
looking to teach his schemes to his squad. San Francisco on the other
hand has relatively set starting units and familiar playbooks so head
coach Steve Mariucci was looking at this game as a chance to evaluate
second and third-string players for back-up roles. Books quickly moved
the line from 49ers -2.5 all the way to Washington -3 as action came
the Redskins way at every point in between.
The
game wasn't close for long. San Francisco's second stringers scored to
go up 7-0 early in the second quarter but it was all Redskins from
there. The Redskins starting offensive line was in the game in the
third quarter while the 49ers starting linemen were resting well
before halftime. Washington's starting QB Sage Rosenfels played the
entire first half and attempted 20 passes while San Francisco's
starting QB Jeff Garcia played just 10 minutes and attempted only four
passes. Washington's second-string QB Danny Wuerffel played the entire
second half and attempted 25 passes, many with a large lead and
against the third and fourth string-players of San Francisco. The
49ers on the other hand played three other QBs who attempted just 19
passes. Spurrier wanted his new team to believe in his system and his
bosses to be impressed. Mariucci wanted to evaluate talent and expose
some bench players to more playing time to help his team later in the
regular season when injuries take their toll. One other item of note,
these two teams meet again in September and so the 49ers did not run
any plays from their regular playbook that the Redskins will see in
the regular season game. The Redskins demonstrated no such
forethought. It all boiled down to a 38-7 Redskins win but it was
evident on the field that talent wasn't the deciding factor,
motivation was.
Preseason NFL handle has grown steadily over the past few years as
more and more bettors begin to understand how to handicap the games.
It wasn't very long ago that just a handful of books offered lines on
these games. Now, every sportsbook takes the basic wagers such as
spreads, totals, parlays and teasers for the exhibition season and
many shops are adding other modern wager types like first-halfs,
half-times, quarter lines and even the occasional prop bet. From the
House's point-of-view, more games are always better so I expect this
trend to continue in the future.
The
biggest difference between regular season and preseason for the books
side is that they are far more aggressive with line moves. I asked
BoDog's top book manager Kent for his thoughts on preseason line
moves. "With regular season lines, we have a pretty good idea what the
spread should be and where it will close so line moves are made with
calculated precision. With preseason we have some ideas but because
the handle is lower for every game and there are so many player
changes we just follow the money and try a lot harder to balance
action. This means there are a few more games where the score falls on
a bad number for the house because of the extra line moves so we
compensate by keeping the maximum a little lower."
I also
asked for his thoughts on the first full week of preseason games.
"Last weekend we did very well when late public money came in heavy on
the 49ers and Texans in the Hall-of-Fame Weekend games. The total in
the Texans-Giants Monday Night game was bet heavily down from 31 to 29
and with the total landing on 51 we got the NFL season off to a great
start. On Thursday, everybody was in on Pittsburgh and the Over so
that game (Jets 16-6) was great as well. Friday saw big action and
players winning with the Falcons and a moderate win for the House with
Dallas beating the Raiders. Saturday was a little ugly as big line
moves were the order of the day. For example, Denver moved from +1 to
-3 and the Titans went from +1 to -2. There were also a few scores
resulted in sides and middles in favor of the players. The Redskins
opened and closed as 7-point favorites with some moves to -7.5 and -8
in there so their 37-30 win wasn't great for us. The Giants/Pats game
also fell on the line (Giants -3 and 22-19 final score), as did the
Titans/Rams game (28-26 final). We lost on the Broncos and Browns, but
did well on the Saints and Chargers. Overall, it was a break-even day
but it was good to have to think through the key-number line moves
that we haven't had to do since Super Bowl. Then there was the Monday
Night game where we were heavy on Miami +6 and Gruden elects to punt
in the last minute with a 4-point lead from the Dolphins 27 instead of
kicking a Field Goal to go up 7 and cover. Oh well, that's why they
play the games."
For
those of you that are new to betting, I will be talking a little more
about sides, middles, line moves and key numbers in upcoming columns
so stay tuned. Next week I will cover balancing action, which
involves all of these factors. For now, remember to think about the
motivation of the team you are playing. I also recommend checking
coaches past records in pre-season for an indication. Perhaps knowing
the 49ers were just 2-7 in the last two pre-seasons (4-5 ATS) would
have helped you cash in on the Redskins last Saturday, if you didn't
already…
I
always welcome comments, questions and suggestions via email at
rob@bodog.com
Rob Gillespie
Operations Manager
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