Over
the last couple of weeks, I have discussed how a pointspread is
derived by a sportsbook and why the lines change. Now that we know the
how and why of pointspreads, we can discuss how best to take advantage
of different lines books offer. Like the last two columns, long-time
readers will find the material familiar, but I think these topics are
important enough that every bettor should brush up each football
season.
One of
my most memorable lessons as a novice bookmaker in Costa Rica was from
one of the nicest and funniest guys you will meet in this business.
His name is Rocket and he is an experienced professional sports
gambler, handicapper and book manager. I learned a lot of things about
the industry from him, but today I will focus on the most important
lesson he taught me, beating the number.
When
you are betting football and basketball spreads and totals and laying
110 to win 100 on every bet, you need to win 52.38% of your bets just
to break even and cover the juice you pay to sportsbooks. It could be
argued that anybody could win 50% of games by flipping a coin or by
having your dog pick teams (which I find annoying as I struggle to hit
that mark some weeks) so the tough part is finding enough overlays to
boost your win percentage above the 52.4% mark. However, there are
other ways to boost your win percentage, one of which is shopping for
the best available line you can find.
If you
have an account at only one sportsbook, you have no choice but to
either accept the line offered or not bet. If you use two sportsbooks,
you can compare the lines you get and wager on the one that provides
you with the best opportunity to win your bet. Why would you have
wagered over 42 on St Louis Rams/San Diego Chargers game last week if
you could have gotten over 41.5? Why would you bet over 41.5 if you
could have gotten a wager in over 41? This seems like common sense,
but it is surprising to me how many players take no heed of the line
they are betting on.
Estimates vary, but generally getting an extra point adds up to 4% to
your chance of winning a wager. This is particularly important around
key numbers in football, 3 and 7, and smaller numbers in general. By
smaller numbers, I mean the difference between a 2 and a 2.5-point
line is more likely to make a difference than is the difference
between a 22 and a 22.5-point line, but it doesn't mean you shouldn't
make an effort to get the best line possible every time.
It's up
to you to decide how many books you should use. Too few means you
don't have enough variation in the lines but if you have too many, you
may lose some opportunities as it will take too long to shop all the
lines and your bankroll could be spread too thin. Be sure to choose
sportsbooks where it is easy to get the lines you need very quickly.
The magic number is probably somewhere around five books for most
people, but if you only have one account, even getting two more sets
of lines to look at for every game should make a big difference to
your bottom line at the end of the season. In the example above, what
line would you have rather had with the final score Chargers 31-10?
Getting the total at 41 meant a push instead of a loss! A half point
can turn a loss into a push or a push into a win. Getting a few extra
wins or pushes over the course of the season makes that extra shopping
well worth the effort.
Recently, I was explaining this concept to my uncle and I asked him
"How many games have you lost by a half-point?". There was a long
pause and he answered "Every <bleep>ing one". I am still not quite
sure what he meant by that but it was obvious that he has lost enough
games by a half-point or a point to know the value of the advice I was
giving him.
Another
factor in beating the number and boosting your win percentage that I
learned from Rocket is timing. I am sure you have all experienced a
game where your morning paper says the line is Rams -8 and as you do
your research you like the Rams, but by the time you go to bet it, the
line is -9.5. So, if St. Louis wins by 9, your handicapping
essentially picked a winner even though your bet was a loser! Even
shopping for the best line may not have made a difference if you
wagered later in the day after the line had moved from -8 to -9.5.
Rocket
pays close attention to opening lines and then which way they move
from there before making any plays. "For example", he says, "if a line
opens at -6.5 and moves to -6, you know sportsbooks are getting action
on the underdog. If you like the favorite in that particular game, you
may be better served by waiting as that line moves from -6 to -5.5 to
-5 over the course of the day or the week." This is tougher to do than
shopping for the best line and takes some experience to get a feel for
which way lines move, but after even just a couple of weeks of
tracking opening and closing lines, you will be better prepared to get
the best possible number on every wager you place.
As a
starting point, the pros use a couple of guidelines for shopping
football lines. Generally the public prefers favorites and over with
the total so the lines tend to move in that direction (but not all the
time or books would simply raise those opening lines). Thus, the
rule-of-thumb is to play favorites and overs early and to play
underdogs and unders late. You won't get the best line everytime
following this rule, but it should serve as a solid base and will
boost your win percentage.
Betting
the best games at the best line should be the goal of every sports
bettor trying to make a profit. I bet if you ask what line he had in
the Rams/Chargers game, he would have gotten the total at over 40 when
it opened and cashed a winner, making me feel silly for thinking 41
was the best line, even if it was at the time I played. It takes
diligence and a little practice but soon you too can be getting the
best price. After careful study and having gotten the best line on any
bet, he would say, "I've beat the number, now all I gotta do is beat
the game". I couldn't have said it better myself.
Taking
a quick peak back at the opening weekend of college football, I talked
to BoDog's head bookmaker Kent. "We saw lots of action on Colorado St.
on Thursday, with the line moving all the way from -2.5 to +1.5. That
was a big win for the players. We got even on Friday when Fresno St.
covered against the Badgers. The line went from Wisconsin -7 to -10 on
that one. Saturday's action was a little more balanced but we saw big
line moves the totals for Ohio St/Texas Tech (48 to 45) and Arizona
St./Nebraska (56.5 to 53.5) with lots of money on the Under for both
games. This was surprising because we normally see over money,
especially at this time of year. Oh well, both were good results for
us but the players had a little revenge with Nebraska (moved from -21
to as high as -24)."
Next
week's topic is Money Management. This is the column BoDog's
bookmakers didn't want you to read. I have convinced them that enough
people won't follow the advice to hurt the book. If you only read one
more of my columns - next week is the one you want.
I
always welcome comments, questions and suggestions via email at
rob@bodog.com
Rob Gillespie
Operations Manager
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