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Aussie
Rules
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Centrebet
Capers
[Rugby League | RUGBY LEAGUE] Cronulla have now put together nine wins on the trot, and while they have been a huge shortener in premiership betting ($501 - $13), a very keen Sharks fan from Sydney has also been basking in their glory after recording some pretty hefty wins himself. The Sharks looked in trouble last weekend when the judiciary ousted Jason Stevens for a week. After opening at $2.15, that omission saw the Sharks ease out to $2.50, or +5½, as bigger punters piled into the Roosters. Our Sharks fan has won a "packet" during their recent run, and he again bet against the popular trend placing $40,000 on the Sharks with the handicap start. The match was tight until half time (6-6), but the Sharks showed with an emphatic 34-20 win that they must be considered a real chance this year, that is of course on the proviso that David Peachey stays injury free. St George-Illawarra, and Centrebet, can probably consider themselves unlucky that the Dragons didn't come away from Newcastle with the points last Friday night. The Dragons played the better football, and could have kicked for goal to level the scores with 10 minutes to go, but opted to go for a try. They then did the same thing again before the Knights scored a late try to take the margin to six points in their favour. A lot was hinging on whether Andrew Johns would convert or not, as we had taken bets of $25,000, and two $10,000 bets, for Newcastle to beat a 6½ point handicap. Johns never let his supporters down as a difficult kick dissected the big sticks. Brisbane were another well backed side who saluted when 48-20 winners over Melbourne. Brisbane had never beaten Melbourne in Victoria, a good enough reason for us to take them on. Bets of $40,000 and $17,000 were placed on Brisbane at -9½ ($1.90), and those punters never raised a sweat as the Broncos completely outclassed Melbourne. Sunday saw two results go our way when Wests beat Souths 50-4 and the Eagles defeated Parramatta 19-10. Actually we were on the verge of three results when Penrith looked likely to beat New Zealand, but some ball handling errors by Penrith, and a late intercept try to the Warriors saw them get home 38-22. Panthers coach Johan Lang declared after the game that he didn't think the Warriors could win the title. Well we hope he is right as the Kiwis, now a $10 chance, are easily our worst result. Those that thought Souths were good things against Wests were taken to the cleaners when the Tigers staged a big form reversal from a few week's back to win 50-4. Three separate $10,000 bets were placed on Souths, and not only was that loss an embarrassment for the club, it has also seen them zoom into $1.40 to win the dreaded wooden spoon. An inspired Northern Eagles showed up some serious flaws in the Parramatta side when upset winners. The Eagles haven't been a good side for Centrebet this season, but on this occasion their 19-10 win was a more than handy result. As well as a $30,000 wager that was placed on the game total going over 48½ points, we also took bets of $30,000 and $18,000 for Parramatta conceding 8½ points start. Parramatta feature prominently in early trading for this week. Punters are saying there is some obvious trouble in the South Sydney camp as Adam Muirs dropping, and subsequent resignation, has seen close to $16,000 bets come for Parramatta giving up 19½ points start. The Roosters need to try and regain some credibility when they travel to Brisbane on Friday, but it looks as though we are the only ones who rate them any chance at all. The Brisbane line opened at -10½ and we immediately took bets of $15,000 and $8000. Money has continued to roll in at -11½, and the Bronco's are also the "anchor" leg in some serious doubles and trebles for the round. The Bulldogs looked in danger of breaking their winning streak last week against the Cowboys, but rallied to go on and win by 12 points. With Braith Anasta out, and the New Zealand Warriors at full strength, we think the winning sequence will come to an end this week. We posted the match at $1.90 "your pick", which saw bets of $5000 and $3300 come for the Bulldogs. On paper, the mobile Kiwi backs might now have the edge, and we are looking for more Bulldogs money. Forty four points separated Cronulla and Newcastle in round one (in Newcastle's favour), but the Sharks are now delivering the results they should. We rate them as favourites ($1.80) to beat Newcastle on Sunday, and although we haven't heard from our big Sharks punter yet, we have no doubt we will. With that in mind, we have taken a few large bets for Newcastle at $2, including $15,000, $10,000 and $8500, all from Sydney. The Sharks are into $13 to win the premiership, and while we haven't seen any decent money for them in the past four weeks, a win here will see those odds slashed. [Australian Rules | AUSTRALIAN RULES] Richmond landed a nation wide plunge when 5 point winners over Melbourne on Sunday, but while the Tigers were backed from $3.15 into $2.70 with Centrebet, we were still happy to pay. A Queensland punter had invested $39,000 on a "pick six" of Collingwood, Brisbane, Port, Melbourne (all AFL) with the Bulldogs and Brisbane in the NRL. The bet was "alive" into Melbourne to beat Richmond, for a payout of $142,000, and while he probably resigned himself to losing early in the last quarter when Melbourne trailed by 46 points, all he was left with in the finish was a sad tale of woe! The Tigers landed a winning bet of $10,000 at $3.15 and $14,000 at +21½ points, and we even laid a bet of $4000 at $2.70, so they sure were a big "go". Geelong must have a look at the bookies boards before they play as once again they let favourite backers down when the Kangaroos hammered them by 64 points. The Cats are a hard enough side to lay at the best of times, let alone when favourites, but in amongst Geelong's bets was a wager of $11,500 at $1.55. They were also coupled up in a $30,000 treble with Fremantle and Brisbane to win, so that helped ease the pain of what was a pretty ordinary weekend. The way Geelong played last week, it would be hard to line up and back them this week, even against St Kilda. The young Saints haven't been going too bad, and we think they can dispose of Geelong on Sunday. The $1.55 Geelong was taken by an early shopper to the tune of $7000, and they look certain to get to a better quote. Essendon's finals hopes are hanging by a thread at the moment, and the money says that status won't improve after this upcoming round. The Bombers opened at $2.50 against Adelaide, and we only took $500 for the once glamour side before taking nearly $15,000 in bets for Adelaide ($1.50). Essendon are out to $2.60, and it looks as though punters have written them off this week. Upsets could be on the cards this week in some of the other matches, starting with Friday night. Collingwood had an easy time of it against Carlton last week, and Hawthorn were trounced by Fremantle, but the Hawks are running out of chances, and this looks an ideal opportunity for them to answer the critics. Collingwood are $1.42, and while most of the Collingwood money has been channeled through them to win the game, we have also taken two early $5000 bets at -18½ points. Prior to last week, Richmond wouldn't have been favourites in an egg and spoon race, but this week will go round as raging $1.62 favourites against Fremantle. The Dockers don't travel well, but for that matter either does anyone else, so Richmond seem poor value. Bigger punters have kept away, but we have seen plenty of interest in Richmond to win. The West Coast are the other side that
appear priced up to their very best form. The Western domination over
the traveling sides is fairly common knowledge, but $1.42 for the Eagles
seems very short. Melbourne are $2.75, and we can only hope that the
Demons will be competitive as there has already been just under $12,000
placed on the Eagles conceding 16½ points start. The Brownlow Medal becomes more confusing as each week passes. Luke Darcy is back into favourtism at $4.50, but there are now fourteen players at $21 and under. Eight weeks ago, an AFL punter, whose judgement we respect on the Brownlow each year, placed $150 each way Mark Ricciuto at $161, and ever since then the Crow midfielder has climbed the market to be one of those at $21. One player that has got under everybody's guard has been Des Headland. He was a $501 a month ago, but is now into $16. [Rugby Union | RUGBY UNION] The Wallabies pulled some more magic out of the hat when Matthew Burke kicked a penalty goal after full time to beat New Zealand 16-14 on Saturday night. Australia have won several matches in the last minute of play over the last few years, and given that Burke had missed from a similar position only minutes earlier, Kiwi punters were probably entitled to think that they might still get the cash. A composed Burke put some earlier misses behind him as he kicked the winning goal to keep the Tri-Series alive and well. The two point winning margin was still good news for one New Zealander who placed $40,000 on the All Blacks receiving 2½ points start ($1.90). Money from South Africa, including two $10,000 bets, was also placed on New Zealand with the handicap, but most of the big money was pointed towards Australia winning. We noticed a big increase in English punters wanting to bet on this match with £10,000, £8000 and £3000 going on the Wallabies to beat the handicap. The All Blacks have had to endure a long trip to South Africa following that match, and the Springboks showed enough in the first encounter to justify backing them in Durban. The Springboks intimidatory forwards really served it up to New Zealand and Australia, and at home we expect them to go close. In any case, we are now forced to pinning our faith in the South African's anyway as the All Blacks have already been backed from $1.60 into $1.50. The betting has now settled at $2.50 for South Africa and $1.50 for New Zealand, with the handicap at 5½ start to the home side. Our South African clients are nowhere to be seen yet, and there has been another wave of money for New Zealand, including a $12,000 bet (from Qld) for New Zealand at -5½ points. There has also been a bet of $7000 placed on New Zealand to win the Tri-Nations series at $1.75. Australia are now into $2, with South Africa, who would need to win this week, and get a bonus point, the outsider at $31. [Cricket | CRICKET] England won the first cricket Test against India after there had been a lot of money from the sub-continent for the draw, and in tonight's (Thurs) second Test from Trent Bridge, the betting patterns have been identical. Early in the week the weather maps predicted a strong possibility of bad weather, which saw a bet of $USD 14,000 come for the draw option at $1.75. That was followed by another two bets of $USD 10,000 and $USD 5000 at $1.65 and $1.55 respectively, with all three coming from India. Unless there is torrential rain tipped for the entire test, it does seem very skinny odds. Some money has come from England for their side at $4, and an Australian has backed India to win $10,000 at $6. Neither of these sides defend very well when under pressure, so hopefully, if play gets under way, there are plenty of wickets lost early. Betting on the Test will be updated daily. Next year's World Cup betting is open, with Australia the favourites at $2.70 ahead of South Africa ($3.25) and Pakistan. [Golf | GOLF] Graeme McDowell may have shocked most of the golfing fraternity when he won last weeks Scandinavian Masters, but it provided one Englishman with an unexpected win at the big odds. This particular person placed £10 each way at $201, the only one that rated McDowell any chance at all. Even when McDowell was in the firing line coming into the last round, there were no bets placed on him at $7.50, with punters preferring the two ahead of him in the betting, Jeff Sluman and Niclas Fasth. McDowell is considerably shorter this week at $21 to win the Welsh Open. Darren Clarke is ruling favourite at $7 after we took a $2000 each way bet at $8 from an Australian client. Paul McGinley, a $41 shot, has had a bet of $150 each way placed on him on the strength of his win last year, but it's worth noting that the event was shortened to two rounds due to bad weather. Steen Tinning, winner in 2000, is a shortener after a group of English punters backed Tinning to win over $35,000, and is now $41 after opening at $81. Some others to meet with support have been Roger Wessels ($67), David Drysdale ($81), Mark Foster ($101) and Peter Hanson ($126) have each been backed to take out close to $15,000 by an Australian client. On the US Tour, Rich Beem finally got back into the winners circle in last week's "The International" event in Colorado. As we mentioned, the Stableford points system turned a lot away, but it fired up into the weekend. Sergio Garcia had been backed to win $60,000 before the event started at $17, and the Spaniard was always a winning chance, but lost two points on the last round to finish in 18th spot. Rich Beem narrowly held off a late burst from Steve Lowery to win by one point. Beem landed a winning bet of $1100 at $10 prior to the last round. This bet came from England, while an Australian placed $2000 on Greg Norman ($15) and $1000 on Geoff Ogilvy at $34. This week, "The Tiger" returns in Michigan in the Buick Classic. Woods is the favourite at $2.65, a price which has been taken to the tune of two bets of $2000, but we certainly haven't been swamped. Phil Mickelson is the $10 second elect, but for a change has been shunned by punters. We have laid several outsiders for big money, including Scott Verplank ($51), Fred Funk ($67), Jeff Maggert ($101), Bob Tway ($126) and Neil Lancaster ($126). Defending champion Kenny Perry has admirers each way at $51, and Rocco Mediate, winner in 2000, has been backed to take out $18,000 at $67. Mediate has been matched up in a tournament head to head with Jerry Kelly, but in this option we have taken a bet of $4500 for Kelly to win at $1.80. Aussie duo Stuart Appleby and Robert Allenby have also matched up, with $7000 worth of bets coming for Allenby at $1.85. There has been some action this week in the upcoming USPGA. A British client placed $2500 each way Sergio Garcia at $21, while a Sydney client backed both Padraig Harrington ($41) and Davis Love ($41) to win $50,000. Tiger Woods remains favourite at $2.85, but as yet, no big bets! [Athletics | ATHLETICS] The European Championships are well under way, and Centrebet is covering most events. To date, there isn't much in it in our battle with punters, but these are very volatile markets, and extremely difficult to win on. We have a few events coming up where we have seen a lot of business. In the women's high jump, Swede Kajsa Bergqvist is the heavily backed $1.55 favourite to win. Naturally most of the money has come from Sweden, but we have also taken an $800 bet for Bergqvist from a Melbourne punter. Our athletics analyst rated Jonathan Edwards as the one to beat at $1.70 in the men's triple jump, but the smart English money has been for two of his countrymen. Phillip Idowu ($3.50) and Charles Friedek ($26) have been the two attracting most bets, and an English client has also placed $1800 on Sweden's Christian Olsson ($2.20) to out jump Edwards. Stefan Holm (Sweden) will be a bad result if he wins the high jump. Once again, it's all Swedish money that has forced the price of Holm into $2.50, but some very astute punters from England have backed Russian Yaraslov Rybakov ($5) and Germany's Martin Buss ($6.50), so we will be risking Holm for more than the normal amount. Most events will be open for betting the day prior, with head to head options available as well. [Commonwealth Games | COMMONWEALTH GAMES] No betting records were broken on the Commonwealth Games, and it became pretty obvious into the second week that it was pointless putting too many events up as the interest just wasn't there. Most of the Swimming events went to the Aussies, and they were all pretty short anyway, however whether Ian Thorpe would get seven gold medals or not did spark some interest. After he won his fourth, Thorpe was into $2.25 to win all seven, and that was being taken, but after the semi's of the 100 metres backstroke, Thorpe's odds drifted out. He actually went into that event as a $3 second pick behind Matt Welsh, who landed a winning bet of $3000 at $1.33 when he ended "Thorpedo's" attempt at seven gold medals. The biggest betting event of the games was also one of the most exciting finishes, the final of the women's netball. Australia opened at $1.55, and were backed into $1.50, but it wasn't all one way traffic as we took several $2000 bets from New Zealand for their National side, the "Silver Ferns". New Zealand also attracted bets of $6500 and $3000 at a handicap of 3½ goals start, with Australia also easy to sell conceding the start. These two have staged some epic battles in the past, but similar to Kuala Lumpur four years ago, Australia prevailed in the game that mattered the most, winning 57-55 in extra - extra time. While these games were on the quiet side as a betting medium, it will be a different matter altogether when, in four years time, the games will be held in Melbourne. [Rally | RALLY] The Rally of Finland gets underway tonight (Thurs), and this has easily been the busiest of the season so far. The last few rallies have seen plenty of accidents, but punters clearly think that one of the Finns will win their own rally. Marcus Gronholm opened favourite at $3, firming into $2.25 at one stage. Several large bets, including one of €4000, have gone on Gronholm, but with support coming for others, we are keen to get some more out of him at $2.75. Compatriot Tommy Makkinen is also popular, including a €2000 bet at $4.75, while Harri Rovanpera has had the most Finnish bets placed on him with his odds more than halving from $17 into $8. We have been "left" with Brits Colin McRae ($5.50) and Richard Burns ($6.50), and that suits us as McRae is in outstanding form having won the Kenyan Rally. With Gronholm so short in Finland, punters have also been eager to back him to take the championship title. After Kenya, Gronholm was posted at $2, but nearly $40,000 in bets, all from Finland, has seen that price slashed to $1.50. [Soccer | SOCCER] Soccer is back in a big way following the World Cup, and this week the lower division English competitions begin as does the German Bundesliga. In English Division One, ten of the
twelve home teams are favourites, but the best backed side in early
action has been Ipswich, who will be away to Walsall. Ipswich opened at
$2.20, but are now into $2.10 after bets of £3000 and €2500 came from
England. Looking through all the games, it seems as though punters think
both Derby ($1.60) and Leicester ($1.90) will open the season with wins. It's pretty dangerous to be on favourites in the early rounds of any competition, but punters have thrown caution to the wind and launched an assault of most of the favourites in the Bundesliga, kicking off with Borussia Dortmund at $1.85 to beat Hertha. Dortmund have already attracted bets of £5000 and €6500, and an Australian has joined in with a $3000 wager as well. Leverkusen are away to Cottbus and have had a bet to the value of $12,000 placed on them at $2.20, as have Bayern Munich ($1.90) who play away also. In Denmark, Brondby fans have plenty to play with after they won some big bets on their midweek Champions League win over Tirana. Plenty have invested their winnings on Brondby this week at $2.55, but we think they are a good risk as they have a very important match next week with Rosenborg. One Danish client has put 75,000 DKK ($AUD 15,000) on FCK at $1.50 to beat Farum this weekend, and we have also taken several substantial bets for AB to beat OB. Only three favourites were able to win in Norwegian Tippeligaen last weekend, but one of those, Molde, did land two big winning bets. The $1.95 for Molde was taken with bets of 125,000 NOK ($AUD 25,000) and 80,000 NOK before they went on to defeat Lyn 2-0. The best result for Centrebet of the round was the 2-2 draw between Valerenga and Brann. Valerenga were easy to sell at $2, and we took one bet of 100,000 NOK on Brann at $3.25. This weekend, a fortune has been put through Rosenborg in multiples. Rosenborg are $1.22 to beat Bryne, but were defeated midweek in a cup match, and of course have a midweek encounter next week against Brondby. The Lillestrom v Molde match is a good betting contest with money for all three options, while it also looks as though Norwegian punters think Stabaek ($2.15) will beat Sognal. Finally, Centrebet is also
betting for the first time on the UEFA Gala Awards which will be held at
the end of the month. The most popular betting award has been the
"best goalkeeper", with Oliver Kahn, Germany's World Cup
goalie, already backed from $2.30 into $1.80. Liverpool goalkeeper Jerzy
Dudek, who held his opposition scoreless in eight of fourteen matches is
second elect at $2.25, with Juventus star Gianluici Buffon the
"outsider" at $4.50. Until next week, good punting. For
further information contact Gerard Daffy at
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