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Aussie
Rules
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Centrebet
Capers
[Rugby
League | RUGBY LEAGUE]
Cronulla, and Brett Kimmorley, broke all
sorts of records in last Sunday's 64-14 win over Newcastle, but the
ramifications are far more reaching than just that win alone. It now
looks highly probably that these two will meet again in the first week
of the finals, and although that game will be in Newcastle, mentally
Cronulla now hold all the aces.
The Sharks' biggest fan who has won a
bundle on them during their winning streak failed to surface last week,
which meant that win gave us a good result. A Sydney client had three
bites at Newcastle, investing a total of $33,000 on the Knights at $2,
and even though we cut the price of Newcastle to $1.90, we still saw
money arrive on the day of the match, including a bet of $16,000. A New
Zealand client predicted a high scoreline, placing $13,000 on the game
total going over 48½ points, and it was obvious after 10 minutes we were
in trouble with that one. Kimmorley's club record 28 point haul was
easily enough to secure him as the top points scorer of the round, but
we couldn't find a single punter who though the $12 was appealing to be
the rounds top point scorer.
All in all it was a very poor round for
league punters. Things got off to a bad start when the Roosters finally
found some form to beat Brisbane 28-18. Brisbane carried big money,
including $40,000 at -12½ points ($1.90), $20,000 at -11½ and $16,000 at
-10½ when betting opened, and were also the first leg of a $30,000 pick
three, of which the other two legs won. To say it was good timing for
the Roosters to regain form was an understatement!
Melbourne kept their finals hopes alive
with a 40-30 win over North Qld, landing a $30,000 winning bet ($2) in
doing so. The same client made it two wins on end as he then chimed in
with a $50,000 bet at $1.80 on New Zealand to end the Bulldogs' winning
streak. Even though we had to pay that bet out, the win by the Warriors
was still good for business as a Victorian man placed $28,000 on the
Bulldogs, and we also saw three separate $10,000 bets, all from NSW,
come for the Bulldogs. Although early money had been for Parramatta conceding 19½, a move to
-20½ saw Souths supporters appear, and in
the finish, the 54-0 win by the Eels wasn't as bad as it should have
been. Two bets of $10,000, and another of $8000, were placed on the
Rabbitohs receiving the start, but for the second week in a row, they
let in 50 points.
Not quite as impressive as Parramatta's
win was a 26-6 victory by Canberra over Wests, but it was ample for a
Sydney regular who parted with $40,000 to say Canberra would beat the
handicap of 10 points. This match was probably the best betting game of
the round with Wests also attracting support, including two win bets of
$5000 at $4.
Top spot might be decided by a couple of
matches this week. The Bulldogs host Parramatta on Friday night, and
while the Bulldogs are favourites at $1.38, they have had to come back
from a bruising encounter in New Zealand. Early support has been for the
Bulldogs, with just over $23,000 worth of bets coming as soon as betting
opened.
New Zealand beat Brisbane 26-16 at ANZ
Stadium in June, and taking into consideration last weekend's matches,
we can't see why they wont win again. It's not often a full strength
Brisbane side is the outsider ($2), so we have seen punters helping
themselves to that, led up by a bet of $16,000. The Warriors always seem
to tighten up late in the betting of their home matches, so while we
haven't seen anything for them yet at $1.80, there is no need to panic.
Melbourne need to win against Penrith to
keep alive a chance to make the final 8, and while we thought they
would, punters are certain that that will happen. The Storm opened at
$1.45, and that has been cut to $1.40, and we have also taken bets of
$8000 and $5000 for them to cover the spread of 8½ points.
One of our more astute league punters is
confidently predicting that the winning run of the Sharks will come to
an end on Sunday. He has put $10,000 on Wests with 12½ points start,
also putting $3000 on them to win at $4.50.
[Australian Rules | AUSTRALIAN RULES]
The Melbourne punter who placed $20 on
Carlton to score no goals against Port Adelaide on Saturday didn't win
$10,000, but until half time he had us worried that we would be sending
him a big cheque. Only once since World War Two had an AFL team failed
to score a goal, and that was back in 1961, so odds of 500/1 didn't seem
"overs", but in windy conditions the Blues hadn’t scored a major by half
time. They turned that around in the second half, scoring five, and in
fact looked a strong chance to win the match before going down by 9
points. Bets of $20,000 and $15,000 were placed on Port to win at $1.10,
and those punters would have got a rather large fright in the last
quarter.
Hawthorn's 8 point victory over
Collingwood on Friday night got us off to a good start for the weekend.
We rated the Hawks a strong chance, but in the hour leading up to the
game, Collingwood firmed from $1.42 into $1.33. A Victorian client took
the $1.42 with a $20,000 wager, and then we took a late bet of $12,000
on the Magpies at $1.36. The premiership hopes of Collingwood seem to be
getting the "wobbles", and are now out to $10.
Our other "risk" for the round at the
short odds were West Coast, and after leading by nearly 30 points in the
second quarter, the Eagles were eventually "outgunned" by Melbourne by 6
points. We were swamped on both options of the Eagles to win at $1.42,
as well as the handicap (-16½), with the largest losing bet being
$20,000 at $1.40.
Plenty of money was won when Adelaide beat
Essendon by 48 points. One of the bigger Aussie Rules bets for the year,
$40,000, was placed on Adelaide conceding 16 points start at $1.90, and
that victory has elevated the Crows to the third line of premiership
betting at $9.
The critics have been pretty quick to play
down Port Adelaide's form saying they look "tired", but in Sunday's
"showdown" with Adelaide, the early support has all been for Port. On
form, there is nothing between these two, but as soon as we posted $1.90
for Port, it was taken with bets of $10,000 and $7000, both from
Victoria. These two sides despise each other, and there is every chance
they will meet each other again in the first round of finals.
Essendon are right "off the boil", and
might well be playing for a finals berth this week when they play
Collingwood. Even if the Bombers do win, it's hard to see them finishing
any better than seventh spot, so they have to be long odds to lift the
cup. Essendon are currently $18 to win and should be double these odds
except for the fact they are a shocking result for us.
Having said all that, we still want
Essendon to win this week. A Melbourne man jumped in and took the
opening $1.80 for Collingwood with a $10,000 bet, then rang back and had
another $7500 at $1.75. Collingwood are now $1.72, with the Bombers
"friendless" at $2.10.
Hawthorn face an acid test against
Richmond on Friday night. Richmond are coming good way too late in the
season, but on last weeks win it's not hard to justify why there has
been money for them at $2.35. Hawthorn can now make the eight, and could
even finish as high as fifth if they continue winning.
If ever there looked a good thing, it's
Fremantle against Geelong on Saturday. Being a day match plays right
into the hands of Freo, and their home form has been impeccable.
Fremantle are $1.52, and we have already taken $6000 for Geelong at
$2.50, still looking for more.
The Kangaroos have been an early firmer
against Carlton. The Roos opened at $1.33, but are into $1.30 following
$14,000 worth of bets, and close to $50,000 in multiple bets.
Brisbane are $2 to win the premiership,
but all the action is on the all important final 8 spots. West Coast had
a $20,000 wager placed on them to finish in the 8 two weeks ago at
$1.55, but are no out to $2.15. Geelong are the one side who most would
think will make it, but we are keen to take them on at $1.40 as it's
feasible that they could lose all remaining matches.
Geelong big man Stephen King is now $5.50
second favourite to win the Brownlow, but Shane Crawford is looming
ominously. Surprising, some outlets drifted Crawford out following their
victory over Collingwood, but we went the other way, bringing him into
$7. Crawford played well in the last quarter, very important as far as
we are concerned, and Hawthorn could easily win all remaining games,
which should keep him in the spotlight. The well backed Matthew Primus
is also a big shortener, now $11, as is Brisbane's Nigel Lappin ($26),
who had a great game returning from injury.
[Rugby Union | RUGBY UNION]
Sometimes you can be happy to be wrong,
and we were very happy that New Zealand beat South Africa 30-23 in last
Saturday's Tri-Nations match.
Once again this was a big betting game,
with betting coming in two big waves. Initially we had no trouble laying
New Zealand both to win and giving up 5½ points start, but a late push
for South Africa saw the All Blacks ease out to $1.55. Most of the
"push" came from South Africa, but we were surprised to see one of our
Indian cricket punters also back South Africa, placing $USD 10,000 on
the Springboks with the start.
That win will probably see New Zealand
secure the series, although mathematically Australia can still win, but
need to win by more than 25 points, a big ask!
Australia have constantly struggled to put
South Africa away at home, and it will be interesting to see how they
attack this game. Do they take risks trying to get enough points to win
the Tri-Nations, or do they play their normal game and see what
eventuates? Either way, they must be some sort of risk and some punters
definitely agree. South Africa opened at $2.40, a price which was taken
by two Australians with a total of $9000, and there has also been
several small bets. On the other side of the ledger, we have recorded an
early bet of $12,500 for the Wallabies at -4½ points, so if Australia
are to win, a narrow victory will do just fine!
[Golf | GOLF]
Tiger Woods comes into this week's PGA
Championship in fine fettle after an easy four shot victory in last
week's Buick Classic. The good news for his supporters is that from
three previous attempts, he has never been able to win the Buick, so he
must be in good form.
Punters reacted immediately as this week
we have found no end of takers for the $2.75 Tiger in the PGA. A
Canadian has led the way with a bet of $USD 10,000 at $2.75, but we have
also taken several bets around the $2000 mark. Those bets have allowed
us to balance things up because we have seen a lot of support for
several others. Last week we pointed out that Sergio Garcia ($18),
Padraig Harrington ($41) and Davis Love ($41) had all been backed to
take out over $50,000 in single bets, but we are now seeing a good
spread of money. Perenial Majors' "bridesmaid" Phil Mickelson has draw a
$2500 each way bet at $13 from a Queensland punter, and Retief Goosen
($26), Jim Furyk ($41) and Thomas Bjorn ($71), have each been backed to
take out close to $100,000. This morning, a Qld punter backed Stuart
Appleby ($71), Robert Allenby ($71) and Greg Norman ($101) to win
$200,000, a very patriotic thing to do!
We have got lots of tournament head to
heads on offer. Kenny Perry has had three bets totaling $16,000 placed
on him to beat Len Mattiace, just over $14,000 has gone on Jeff Sluman
($1.80)to defeat Bernard Langer, while a South African client has placed
$10,000 on Ernie Els to beat home Phil Mickelson at $1.85.
Several groups are also on offer, with the
most popular of those being top Australasian and top Scandinavian. Kiwis
Michael Campbell and Craig Perks join nine Australians to make up that
particular group. Peter Lonard is favourite at $5.75, but punters have
shown a preference for the "veterans" of the field with most support for
Greg Norman ($9), Peter O'Malley ($15) and Craig Parry ($21).
In the Scandinavian group, only two
players, Thomas Bjorn and Jesper Parnevik (both $4) are rated by
punters, but the form of the others, in particular Soren Hansen, points
towards this group being very open.
Karrie Webb etched her name in the history
books when she showed a return to form to win last week's women's
British Open. Karrie hasn't been the dominant factor this year like she
has been in the past, and even though she was the $8 second favourite
behind Anikka Sorenstam, Aussie punters didn't really give her much show
at all. Most of the English players, along with Sorenstam, was where all
the money went, and Karrie was a winner for Centrebet, for a change!
It's different this week though as Webb is
the well backed $4.50 favourite to win the Canadian Open. Se Ri Pak has
admirers at $6.50, along with a couple of "roughies" in Kelly Robbins
($67) and Michelle Ellis ($81), but naturally the focus on golf betting
this week is on the PGA.
[Cricket | CRICKET]
Bad light, and a determined effort by
India in the second innings saw us come off second best in the battle
with punters in the Trent Bridge Test.
The draw has been backed from $1.75 into
$1.48 before the Test started, with most of that money coming from
India. Bad light saw an early finish to day one, and the draw was near
on unbackable until after the end of the fourth day. India lost two
quick wickets to be 2/11, but with Rahul Dravid and Sachin Tendulkar
still in, they steadied to still be at the crease with a day to play.
Fortunately, this allowed us to find some money for an English win, with
one of our Indians placing $USD 10,000 on England at $2.10, which was
still a long way short of paying all the winners.
We have also been covering a round robin
tournament in Morocco. South Africa went into game one as $1.68
favourites, posting 283 runs from their 50 overs. Pakistan fell well
short in the run chase, all out for 229. Over $30,000 was wagered on
this match, and South Africa were small winners for us.
Last night (Wed), Pakistan were $1.60 to
beat Sri Lanka. The Pakistani's had two $10,000 bets placed on them by
Indian punters, and this time the punters beat us when Pakistan won.
South Africa go in as $1.55 favourites to beat Sri Lanka in tonight’s
match.
[Formula One | FORMULA ONE]
Michael Schumacher is $1.75 favourite to
defend his crown in Sunday's Hungarian Grand Prix. With the Driver's
Championship all wrapped up, punters have been apprehensive to take the
short odds, apart from one German client who placed €2500 on Schumacher.
Rubens Barrichello is second choice at $3.50, at which price we have
taken lots of bets, as we have also with Kimi Raikkonen at $18.
Raikkonen ($16) and David Coulthard ($16)
have been easily the best two backed to get pole position. There has
also been a $4000 placed on Michael Schumacher at $2, but our tip is
once again the enigmatic Juan Pablo Montoya ($3.25), who has qualified
quickest at five of the last six events.
There isn't much to report in the other
exotics we have apart from a qualification match up between Raikkonen
and David Coulthard. In a rarity, we have taken lots of money for both
drivers, with Finnish clients getting right behind Raikkonen at $1.80,
and two English clients placing a total of £4000 on Coulthard at $1.90.
[Entertainment | ENTERTAINMENT]
Top documentary Alt Om Min Far,
Borettslaget actor Robert Stoltenberg, Jeg Er Dina actress Maria
Bonnevie and French flick Amelie are Centrebet's favourites for the four
major Amanda Award categories at this year's Norwegian International
Film Festival.
Alt Om Min Far, Even Benestad's movie
about his transvestite father, is 1.50 to win the Best Norwegian Film
prize. Tyven, Tyven is our second favourite at 2.75, with the Ole
Bornedal-directed Jeg Er Dina $5.00 outsider because of its
non-Norwegian screenplay.
Our film analyst believes that the Best
Actor race is a two-way contest between television star Robert
Stoltenberg and Jorgen Langehelle, nominated for his performances in
Tyven, Tyven and Jeg Er Dina. Stoltenberg, extremely popular with the
Norwegian public after the success of Borettslaget, is our favourite at
$1.70. Kim Bodnia is $6.00.
Maria Bonnevie represents the best chance
of Jeg Er Dina, arguably the most famous of the Norwegian films in
foreign countries, winning one of the top gongs. Bonnevie is our $1.35
favourite and she is favourite ahead of Det Storste I Verden actress
Kirsti Stubo ($3.75) and Tiden For Tim star Andrine Saether ($4.50).
The Best International Film category is
very competitive. Amelie is the favourite at $2.30, with The Lord Of The
Rings: The Fellowship Of The Ring ($2.50), A Beautiful Mind ($3.85),
Shrek ($13), Bridget Jones' Diary ($13) and Harry Potter and the
Philosopher's Stone ($17) making up the quality field.
[Politics | POLITICS]
Professional opinion pollsters believe
that Gerhard Schroder cannot win next month's German election but
Centrebet's market that acclaimed American academics rate above surveys,
suggests that Germany's charismatic chancellor is recovering ground.
The majority of polls put Schroder's
Social Democratic Party five percentage points behind Edmund Stoiber's
Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union coalition, but punters
think that the surveys are incorrect and are backing Schroder to win a
second term in office. His chancellorship odds are now $2.50. Last week
he was $3.60.
Betting support for Stoiber is drying up
as the election campaign gets into full swing, although high-rolling
punters are continuing to back the CDU/CSU alliance to win the most
seats at prohibitive prices given their significant lead in the various
polls. They do not, however, want to stake money on the Bavarian landing
Germany's top job.
It seems Schroder is rallying because
Germans approve of his stance on the issue of Iraq.
Academics at two of the world's leading
universities published a comprehensive study in which they found that
Centrebet's betting markets on last year's Australian Federal Election
not only correctly forecast the overall outcome, but also provided
incredibly precise estimates of outcomes in a multitude of individual
electorates.
Stanford University's Justin Wolfers and
Andrew Leigh, of Harvard, concluded that the Australian press should
have published more betting stories and fewer polls.
[Soccer | SOCCER]
The big news around Centrebet this week
was the 100% market we offered on last nights Champions League match
between Rosenborg and Brondby, and didn't we get some response from the
punting public! The amounts bet on this game were very similar to some
of the World Cup matches, with one Norwegian client leading the way with
a bet of 200,000 NOK ($AUD 40,000) on Rosenborg at $2. The draw was at
an appealing $3.65, which we had no trouble selling, and devout Brondby
fans were all over the $4.40 for the Danish side, with the biggest bet
being 15,000 DKK ($AUD 3000).
Rosenborg won 1-0, which sets us up for a
thriller in the return leg.
This weekend, we rate Brondby some chance
of going down to Viborg. We pointed out last week that they looked
"risky" against AaB as they had this week's big game against Rosenborg
to focus on, and sure enough they were beaten 3-1.
We have posted Brondby at $1.60 against
Viborg, and while they have met with support, it's nothing like what we
have seen in the past, so maybe punters are thinking the same way.
Title favourites FCK also had a UEFA Cup
match midweek, and for the same reasons that we think Brondby can be
beaten, we think FCK will struggle away to Midtjylland. The $2.10 for
FCK has been taken with a few big bets including €4000 from an Austrian
client, but most of those bets have come from non Danish punters, so
again it looks as though many people are thinking along the same lines.
In Norway, favourites fared very badly in
last week's Tippeligaen with only three managing to win. Lyn's shock 1-0
loss to Moss disposed of most multiple bets, and Monday's match where
Brann ($1.80) were defeated 3-1 by Bodo/Glimt saw many large bets lost,
including a bet of 90,000 NOK.
This week, with some of the Norwegian
sides involved in the Champions League and UEFA Cup, the upcoming round
has been quite apart from the Molde v Rosenborg game. Molde are slight
favourites at $2.35, and with them being the main danger to Rosenborg as
far as the title is concerned, it is indeed a big match.
English Premier League gets under way this
week, and while there has been plenty of action to win the title, there
has been a little bit of uncertainty shown by punters on the matches.
Man United are now into $2.25 to win the
title following a $20,000 bet at $2.30, and they have been hugely
popular through multiples in this week's match against relegation
favourites West Bromwich, but you don't get rich backing $1.22 chances!
We have noticed lots of small bets coming from England for Man City at
$5 to beat Leeds ($1.65), so they might be a risk at the short odds with
the same applying to Newcastle ($1.65) as there has been a distinct
trend of activity for both the draw and West Ham in that match.
With over 700 games of soccer on offer
with Centrebet this week, there isn't too many corners of the globe we
haven't got covered for soccer fans. There are more to come, and of
course exotic bet types are now available on all main, and even some
lower, competitions. If you have any ideas for new bet options let us
know! Until next week, good punting. For further information contact Gerard Daffy at Centrebet on 08 89555800 or on centrebet@centrebet.com
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