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Aussie
Rules
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Centrebet
Capers
[Rugby League | RUGBY LEAGUE] We have never experienced a week like last week following the furore surrounding the Canterbury Bulldogs. There was plenty of conjecture over what penalty should be imposed on the Bulldogs following their salary cap breach, and it probably wasn't a surprise to many that the NRL adopted a "hard line" by docking them of competition points. Most people who had had a premiership bet were aware that if they were on the Bulldogs they had done their money, but of course if they were on any of the other sides, their bets stood. From a business point of view we came off second best as we had taken very little on the Bulldogs to win the title or to make the final 8, but of course we will get most of that back if they eventually "win" the wooden spoon. With the Bulldogs now appealing the severity of the sentence, there is still no guarantee that they will in fact run last, so the matter is temporarily in "limbo". Centrebet has been contacted by several punters stating their intentions to take legal action against either/and the Bulldogs board, the NRL, and bookmakers, ourselves included. These would be landmark cases as there is no previous precedent of this type. All sorts of scenarios have been posed, and of all the grievances I have heard, the obvious problem area is the wooden spoon. Several people have outlayed big money over the past couple of months on the wooden spoon, with some "financing" their own book so they couldn't lose. On face value they had no hope of collecting, so maybe there is justification for seeking compensation. Following on from the whole saga, the "rumour mill" was working overtime on Monday of this week. We took a handful of calls from people wanting to back the Brisbane Bronco's to be wooden spooners this year, so the "finger pointing" is gaining momentum! This whole issue has raised some interesting questions about betting on "futures", something we thankfully don't get too involved in. It now seems certain that some pretty stringent rules will need to be in place regarding teams that lose points or are disqualified, something which most sports bookmakers seem to be a little lax in. It's also correct to assume that we can expect a downward trend in the betting on "futures" markets nobody likes to lose their money from an incident that they hadn't factored in when placing their bet. It really is a messy business. All of the dramas aside, there was still some football played last weekend, but we didn't bet on the Bulldogs game. It was hard to find out if there were going to be any changes to the team named (the same team who had breached the salary cap!) so we took the easy way out and didn't bet on it! The 40-10 win by Newcastle over Brisbane got the weekend off to a good start for us. The early, and the late money was all for Brisbane, who firmed from $2.10 into $1.90. Amongst the bigger bets was a wager of $16,000 from a Victorian client. A Sydney punter would not have been impressed by the insipid display that Melbourne Storm provided when beaten 26-16 by Wests Tigers. His $50,000 wager on Melbourne conceding 6½ points start ($1.88) looked more likely to win after the Bulldogs went to the bottom of the ladder, as a win to Melbourne would have cemented a spot in the finals. After taking early money for the Roosters to beat New Zealand, things changed around on Sunday, so much so that the 44-0 caning handed out by the Roosters was a good result. Most of the money, including a bet of $15,000, came from New Zealand, and on top of that there was another Kiwi who placed $4000 on New Zealand to win by 13 points or more at $4.10. There are some very important games this weekend, with the four sides left vying to grab the last two spots in the final 8 all being underdogs, but we have noticed a huge drop in business. Canberra have the toughest assignment, and punters give the Raiders no hope of beating Brisbane. Canberra are $6, or +14½ points, and the only money we have seen has been for the Broncos. All of a sudden the Roosters are back in favour with punters, and as soon as betting opened on Wednesday, we took just under $18,000 for the Roosters to beat St George Illawarra ($1.45) and also cover a 7 point handicap. The Northern Eagles must be rated some hope of upsetting New Zealand at Brookvale on Sunday. Last week's effort of failing to score a point against the Roosters is hardly the form line anybody would be looking for with the finals just around the corner, but early trading has seen bets of $10,000 and $8000 come for New Zealand conceding 6½ points start. [Australian Rules | AUSTRALIAN RULES] Hawthorn were the biggest "go" of the year so far last Friday night, and it was once again the Kangaroos who continued to be "the bookie's friend". An isolated $1.80 was available, and the last bet we took was $7000 at $1.48, with the biggest losing bet being $20,000 at $1.58. Punters were knocking each other over to take the short odds as Hawthorn "had to win", but all of that was built into the odds anyway, so it then becomes a matter of "how short is bad value?" It was a horror weekend for Aussie Rules followers with only three favourites managing to "cover the spread", and one of those, Port Adelaide, was reasonably hard to sell. Port gave the West Coast a footy lesson with a 38 point victory, but aside from a bet of $5000 for Port at $1.70, the bulk of the money bet was for West Coast. The other South Australian side, Adelaide, also provided us with a good result when 22 point victors over Richmond. Plenty of money went on the Crows at $1.38, but two bets of $8000 were placed on Richmond to win outright, as well as a $14,000 bet that they would get within 21 points, so we just scraped home there! The failure of the other two Sunday favourites to "cover" was also good for business even though Fremantle had a $12,000 bet placed on them at 36½ points start. Both Essendon, and Collingwood (-17½) against St Kilda had single $20,000 wagers placed on them giving up the start, and while both won, neither were impressive. Premiership favourites Brisbane and Port will slug it out in Adelaide on Saturday, and Brisbane look likely to go in well under what we rate them. After opening at $1.80, we have been forced to cut the price to $1.72 after recording several $5000 wagers. Some money has arrived for Port at $2.10, an outstanding price at home! The resignation of Bulldogs coach Terry Wallace sent punters into "overdrive" on Tuesday. Aussie Rules followers love to back sides who have "lost" a coach, and within minutes of the announcement we had taken just beyond $14,000 for the Bulldogs to beat Collingwood at $2. But a decision by the Dogs' board and the players to "sack" Wallace today and play with a new coach on the weekend has obviously created tension which could come out on the field, so we will have to see how punters play this one. Geelong and Hawthorn need a win on Friday night, but others will be looking closely at that game as it has significant bearing on the make-up of the final 8. Should Geelong ($2.15) beat Hawthorn, and Melbourne ($1.53) beat St Kilda, then technically speaking Essendon would be better off to be beaten by Carlton. Granted nobody likes to lose, but if the Bombers finish in eighth spot, they would then have crucial finals games in Melbourne, not interstate. Knowing how punters think (or trying to!) if the results go that way, Carlton will be significantly shorter on Sunday than they should be. With that in mind, we have "gone after" Essendon, getting a couple of early bets totaling $25,000 at $1.22. The other matter of fact is that Carlton did win against the Bulldogs, and Essendon struggled against a side whose traveling record is terrible, so they look a "risk" anyway. Brisbane are now into $1.95 to win the premiership following a $10,000 bet when betting opened at $2 on Monday. Port Adelaide's Josh Francou is our new Brownlow Medal favourite at $3.50 ahead of Luke Darcy at $4. As we said earlier many of this weeks games have significant bearing on finals positions, and we know of one Sydney punter who will be glued to the action. Last Friday he placed $20,000 on Melbourne to make the final 8 at $1.02, so he is going to have to sweat through most of the round before he knows if he will be $400 richer! [Cricket | CRICKET] Even though its football season, it's been good to have some live cricket action on Fox Sports to fill in the week, and it's also been good for business! India won the Third Test against England at Headingly, and the pre game money was again from India, and again for the draw. The weather maps looked all clear to us, so we took several large bets, the largest being $US 10,000, for the draw at various odds between $2.30 and $2. The "draw" dominated the market until the end of the fourth day, which saw India take over as favourites when they only had to dispose of six wickets with a day to play. The intent was always to "balance the book", so we took bets of $16,000 and $10,000 (twice) for India at $1.50. India's bowlers did the rest, and hopefully the Indian authorities can get the side back on track for a tilt at the upcoming ICC Championships. India appear to be the only side yet to resolve the sponsorship issues, so it should be a good tournament. Before that though, Australia will play in a "Claytons" one day series in Kenya. At least Pakistan will be there, so there will be interest in those games. [Formula One | FORMULA ONE] Michael Schumacher defends his 2001 win in the Belgian Grand Prix on Sunday. Punters will definitely find it difficult to find value with the Ferrari team taking up a Goliath's share of the market. Ferrari have won all but two of the 13 races this year, and now that Schumacher has wrapped up the title he has stated that Ferraris main priority is to ensure Rubens Barrichello gets outright second position. We saw that put into practice two weeks ago when Schumacher didn't take any extravagant risks trying to get past the heavily backed Barrichello. We got caught out on that occasion, but Barrichello is $2.50 this week with Schumacher at $1.80. We have taken $3000 in bets for Barrichello, and also seen money for Montoya ($9) and Raikkonen ($21). A bet of $4000 has been placed on Ralf Schumacher to finish on the podium at $2.10. The usual money has come for Kimi Raikkonen ($3.25) and David Coulthard ($3), but if there was to be a surprise in Spa, it could come from Giancarlo Fisichella, who has shown steady improvement over the past few races, and was placed third last year. [Motor Bikes | MOTOR BIKES] Max Biaggi won his first race in more than a year when the Italian won the Czech Moto Grand Prix. Biaggi showed vast improvement in qualifying following a month between races, as did Daijiro Katoh, who was making his debut on a 5 stroke. We thought we had Katoh "safe" in the betting at $26 based on his previous form, but one English punter identified the value, placing £500 on Katoh to finish on the podium at $6.50. After qualifying, those odds were $1.65, and Katoh was $5 to win, at which price we accepted a bet of $2500 from Singapore. Favourite Valentino Rossi was "easy" in the market following qualifying, but we did at least get a bet of $US 5000 at $1.55 in the final minutes before the race started. Biaggi was never headed, and Rossi had to make a pit stop four laps from the finish, effectively ending his chances, but its questionable whether he would have caught Biaggi or not. [Golf | GOLF] What a week for Australian golf! After 236 tries on the PGA Tour, one of Australia's most popular personalities, Craig Parry, finally broke his maiden status, winning a big pile of money as well! Parry was $161 in our market, and while we normally get at least one bet out of "Popeye" in his PGA appearances, not a single bet was placed on him at the big odds. We did get nearly $1000 in bets for Parry at $11 when he led into the last round, but it was still a massive result. The richness of the field saw heavy betting before things got under way, and even prior to the last round there was plenty of money around. A Sydney client placed $2000 on Robert Allenby at $6.50, a Queensland client placed $1500 on Phil Mickelson ($15), Matt Gogel ($31) and Justin Rose ($31), and nearly $8000 was placed on Tiger Woods at $2.65. In Europe, youngster Adam Scott showed what he was capable of when a 10 shot winner of the Scottish PGA. A few Aussies stuck with Scott, who was our $12 favourite, but he was still a good winner in our book. The level headed Queenslander shows all the signs of being a future champion, and while this might sound parochial (and it is), Scott might be the next serious challenger to Tiger Woods. Favourite Chris Riley won the Reno-Tahoe Open in a playoff, and in a very quiet betting affair, we came out slightly behind after taking a $3000 bet for Riley prior to the last round at $3.25. An out of form Vijay Singh is our $10 favourite to win this weeks Air Canada Championship, but the next four in the betting, Fred Funk ($14), Robert Allenby ($15), Chris Riley ($15) and Peter Lonard ($21) all come into the Air Canada in mighty fine form. Funk tied for third last year behind Joel Edwards, and was also runner up in 1999 behind Canadian Mike Weir, so he might well be the one to be on. We have laid Weir ($26) to lose $15,000 to a Canadian client, also "laying" Mark Calcavecchia ($28), Darren Clarke ($31) and JJ Henry ($67) to lose $12,000 each way to a Queenslander. This week, it is Bernard Langer's 45th birthday, and a few think that Langer will get a belated birthday present by winning the BMW International Open in Munich. We always lay Langer in Germany, and practically all of the bets on him this week at $21 have come from Germany, but he has a poor record in this event. The erratic John Daly won last year, and we have already taken $600 worth of bets for "Big John" at $31, but surely that's not over the odds? Colin Montgomerie won in 1999, but is still having back problems, so we have been happy to take the big Scot on at $17, and of course we have taken some hefty bets for Thomas Bjorn at $16. The Dane won in 2000, and has shown glimpses of form over the past few tournaments. Kate Golden was a shock winner of the State Farm Classic last year, and we have seen a few take the $61 each way for her to defend her title in Illinois this week. Grace Park ($31) and Jenny Rosales ($67) are two others who have met with support, but Si Re Pak should justify the quote of $4 we have given her following a last round course record 63 to win last weeks Betsy King Classic. [Tennis | TENNIS] The US Open snuck up on us quickly this year, and looking through the draw, our tennis price assessors think Lleyton Hewitt can win again. A South Australian has placed $2000 on Hewitt at $3.25, but he is still a good winner for us, and we want to keep it that way! Punters have "dropped off" second pick Andre Agassi ($6), but we have laid Andy Roddick ($15) and Marat Safin ($15) to lose $50,000 to a Sydney client. Pete Sampras ($26) was backed to win $100,000 before the tournament started, but obviously "Pistol Pete" hasn't lost his popularity as the biggest bet was only $200. One of the Williams sisters will probably win the women's title, and we have laid the "shorter" of the two, Venus, at $2.10. A German client has led the way with a bet of €6000, but if they play off in the final, there won't be much in the betting. One Sydney punter has bet $10,000 on Lleyton Hewitt beating Israel’s Noam Okun tonight (Thurs). Nothing odd about that except Lleyton is $1.02, so his profit will only be $200. Anything can happen in tennis, just ask Mark Philippoussis! [Entertainment | ENTERTAINMENT] Golden Globe winner and Academy Award nominee Rachel Griffiths is $3.75 to win the Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series at the 54th Annual Emmy Awards in Hollywood on September 22. Six Feet Under's Griffiths is our fourth favourite for one of the toughest Emmy races in recent years. The West Wing's Allison Janney heads the market at $2.50, with Frances Conroy ($3.00), Jennifer Garner ($3.25) and Amy Brenneman ($29.00) making up the remainder of the all-star field. Nominees for acting awards submit one episode only and the talk in Tinseltown is that Griffiths made a poor choice that buries her chance of collecting another gong under six feet of dirt. Her co-star Conroy made a good selection, but Janney is the one to beat because she is an Emmy sweetheart. Well known for our books on the Academy Awards, Golden Globes and Big Brother, we are currently trading six Emmy Awards markets. Six Feet Under is $1.70 to win the Outstanding Drama Series prize, a category in which it faces stiff competition from perennial Emmy favourite The West Wing ($2.25) and another new show, 24 Hours, now $3.25 after opening at $4.50. Sex and the City (Outstanding Comedy Series), Matt LeBlanc (Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series), Sarah Jessica Parker (Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series) and Peter Krause (Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series) are the favourites on our other exclusive Emmy lines. [Basketball | BASKETBALL] The WNBA final series gets under way Friday (Aust time) and while the Los Angeles Sparks are "red hot" favourites at $1.25 to take the title, they are only slightly favoured in game one against the New York Liberty. The Sparks are the reigning champions, and the Western Conference have provided every WNBA winner, but we are banking on a "changing of the guard". Liberty are at home in game one, where Los Angeles go in at $1.75 or -1½ points. A Canadian client has placed $US 3000 conceding the start, and we have also taken several bets from England for the same option. The men's World Championships start this week in Indiana. The USA are the short favourites at $1.20, but this is a long way short of a "dream team". We have taken a bet of €5000 from a Finnish client for the USA, but its worth noting that this group of players have no history of playing as a team, and come in on the most limited preparation. Also they will be without Shaquille O'Neal, Kobe Bryant, Ray Allen and Jason Kidd. One team that has been backed to win the title is Yugoslavia. They opened at $12, and are now $5.50 after being backed to take out just under $25,000. Yugoslavia beat Spain to be Euro Champions last year, but only just scraped home against Germany 88-87 in an exhibition match last week. The US play Algeria on the first day and we have already seen money for the Americans "giving up" 42½ points start. We have also put up markets for players to score "most points" in designated groups. Best backed of these has been Germany's Dirk Nowitzki, who opened at $2.70 and is now $2.40 in his group. The other interesting player is China's Yao Ming. The youngster is 7 feet 6¼ inches tall in his sneakers, which is why defensively he is a nightmare to try and stop. Ming opened at $5, and we have taken bets for him from 8 different countries, including a couple of bets from Australia, so we can only assume that a lot of people saw the story on the "big guy" last weekend, which went into great depth of his move to the Houston Rockets. Betting will be available on all matches daily. [Soccer | SOCCER] German soccer fans were spot on when they correctly forecast that Kaiserslautern would make Andreas Brehme the first coaching casualty of the Bundesliga season. Brehme was backed from an opening $2.50 into $1.60, and only lasted three matches into the new season. That was so popular, we have put a new market up, with Nurnberg's Klaus Augenthale the favourite at $2.25. Football punters believe that European soccer's governing body will honour Zinedine Zidane, Klaus Toppmoller, Ruud van Nistelrooy, Michael Ballack, Sami Hyypia and Oliver Kahn at the UEFA Gala Awards in Monte Carlo on Thursday. Football fans backed Real Madrid's Zidane ($1.18), Bayer Leverkusen's Toppmoller ($1.30), Manchester United's Van Nistelrooy ($1.20), Bayern Munchen's Ballack ($1.02), Liverpool's Hyypia ($4.75) and Bayern's Kahn ($1.20) to receive prizes at the dinner on the eve of the Champions League/UEFA Cup draws and the UEFA Super Cup match. Our worst result is Kahn after punters backed the German captain into odds-on favourtism from an initial price of $2.30. The Bayern goalkeeper was magnificient throughout this year's World Cup in Korea and Japan, but UEFA voters are supposed to base their judgments on last season's UEFA club competition games. Undeniably, Kahn was the best shot-stopper on view at the World Cup but he should not be favourite to win Best Goalkeeper for the fourth year if the panel assesses his performances in last term's Champions League. Liverpool's Jerzy Dudek should receive the trophy for keeping seven clean sheets. On the English front, Arsenal did Centrebet a couple of favours in their last two matches. The weekend fixture saw Arsenal draw 2-2 with West Ham, which put paid to some big wagers on Arsenal, including one of $10,000 at $1.75. They then lined up on Tuesday night as $1.16 shots to beat West Bromwich, which they duly did. The scoreline was where we won our money as bets of $10,000 and $7800, along with others, were placed on the goal total being under 2½ goals. The "Gunners" face a crucial test on Sunday when they are away to Chelsea. Arsenal built an imposing record "away" last season, so it wasn't surprising to see a confident ring about their chances last week, but Chelsea is a different matter. Three bets totaling in excess of $11,000 have come from Norwegian clients for Arsenal at $2.30, but to us they look like a definite risk. West Ham put up a good showing against Arsenal, and they have also met with solid support at $1.90 to beat Charlton. West Ham aren't the type of side to be backing at "odds on", and Charlton were competitive against Tottenham midweek. As yet we haven't seen any Asian money this week, but that's the same every year in the early rounds of soccer. In Denmark, the majority of punters got it right when FCK defeated Brondby 2-1 last Saturday but most came out behind when Silkeborg ($2) were beaten 1-0 by Farum, and AaB ($2.35 - $2) were held to a 2-2 draw by Viborg. This week, big money has arrived for Koge, and the draw, against AGF. Koge have had a fair start to the season, but injuries have ruled a few players out this week. We have taken a 25,000 DKK ($AUD 5000) bet for the draw, and bets of 12,000 DKK and $2500 for Koge at $3.70. We have decided to take Brondby on again when they line up against Esbjoerg. Brondby had a Champions League match midweek against Rosenborg (which Rosenborg won 3-2) and that will surely affect them on Sunday. Midtjylland ($2.20) have lost their top striker, so we have also been eager to get money out of them against Silkeborg, but as yet there are no takers! A draw ($3.40) looks a good chance here, but our "best bet" of the round is FCK, who play away to AaB. Until next week, good punting. For further information contact Gerard Daffy at Centrebet on 08 89555800 or on centrebet@centrebet.com
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