|
|
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
Aussie
Rules
|
Centrebet Capers
AUSTRALIAN RULES Favourite punters got out of jail on two of Sunday's matches which ironically saw the two South Australian sides 'stagger' home by four points. Both Adelaide ($1.20) and Port Adelaide ($1.45) each had a little bit of luck which saw them come away with the all important four points, but we desperately wanted the Crows beaten as they were the last leg of some pretty big multiple bets, mainly coupled up with Essendon, Collingwood and Brisbane. All in all though, it wasn’t a bad weekend as two fav's, Melbourne and the West Coast were beaten, and only one favourite managed to cover the spread. Possibly the handicap that had the biggest impact on us was the Geelong v Collingwood game. A Victorian punter had Collingwood going for a result of $87,500 if they had beaten Geelong by 26 points or more, and when Geelong led by 18 points at half time, we thought we didn't have too many worries. Wrong! The Magpies came out running in the third quarter to hit the front, and for most of the last quarter looked likely to cover that handicap. The score sat on 23 points in Collingwood’s favour for what seemed an eternity, and to extend the anguish, Collingwood had a shot on full time which thankfully missed, so finally the pendulum might be turning in favour of the bookies! We were pretty keen to take Brisbane on conceding 30½ points start against the Kangaroos, but again we had a bit of luck when punters kept away from this option. The Lions were back to their best, dishing out a 48 point hiding to the Kangaroos, and are back into $3.20 to win the premiership. Last week we took two bets of $20,000 for Brisbane to win the flag at $4.75 and $4.50, as well as $5000 for Collingwood ($5.50) and $5000 for the West Coast at $8. The Magpies have moved in to $5, with the Eagles out to $10, and the finals betting is really starting to fire up. Port Adelaide's preparation has had a setback with a knee injury to Matthew Primus, but that hasn't stopped a South Australian supporter from placing $60,000 on Port at $3. Port may well go on and win the flag, but the injury to Primus, and a rather large question mark that still lingers concerning their form at the MCG would seem to suggest that the $3 is far from 'over' the odds. Last week we suggested two possible upsets in the Bulldogs over Melbourne, and St Kilda over the West Coast. The 21 point victory by the Bulldogs was a good start to the weekend for us as Melbourne had good support at $1.45, but as we got further into the weekend, the West Coast became impossible to sell. Two early bets of $5000 were taken at -17½ points, but on the day of the match that moved in a further point as there was money for St Kilda. The Saints play the Telstra Dome extremely well, and they now play four sides below them in the remaining rounds. They will probably miss the finals, but look a side of the future. The Saints go around as favourites at $1.65 this week against Richmond, and while a lot of people thought the prices would be a lot closer together, we haven't seen anything substantial as yet for Richmond at $2.20. This will be Nathan Burke's last game for St Kilda, and that should be enough motivation for them to win. Apart from Port, who are $1.05 to beat Carlton, the whole round looks very tough, which explains why things have been a little quiet early this week. Melbourne have been under siege in the media recently, but there has been a couple of early bets totaling $4000 to say that they can beat Geelong at the MCG on Friday night. Pride only is at stake here, so this won’t be a big betting game. Collingwood are yet to convince us yet that they are premiership material, but that question will be answered on Saturday when they play Brisbane in a replay of last years final. A huge psychological edge can be gained by victory here, and we have awarded favourtism to Brisbane at $1.80, but the early trading, including a $10,000 bet has been for Collingwood at $1.95. Later that same day, Adelaide will try and become the first side to win in the west this year. We don't think they can, and put the Crow's up at a best quote $2.10, but haven't been able to find any support. These statistics really have had an impact on betting this year, and until someone can win over there, the travelling sides are going to be hard to sell. Fremantle are struggling of late, and they have a big task on Sunday when they play the Roos at the MCG. Just like it is hard trying to lay sides who have to travel west, getting anything out of those two sides when they come east is nearly as difficult. We posted Fremantle at $2.30 in this match, but after two days of trading, less than $100 had been placed on them. The Roos look certain to start shorter, and in our ratings, look the winners as well. RUGBY LEAGUE A Victorian punter got a lucky break on Friday night when the Roosters' Shannon Hegarty scored in the corner in the final minute to secure victory for his side over Canberra. The client in question had the Roosters running for $51,500 after including them in a multiple bet with three baseball sides who had all won earlier in the day. It would be fair to say that even the most avid Roosters fan would concede that the Raiders were the better side on the night, but that's life, the better side doesn't always win. There was plenty of money for the Roosters conceding 9 and 10 points start, so the result wasn't earth shattering. Melbourne went a long way towards cementing a spot in another finals series when they held out New Zealand 14-12. This was one of those games where both sides had solid support, including losing bets of $12,500 and $10,000 on the Warriors at $1.75, while the Storm landed three winning $4000 bets at various odds around the $2.10 mark. Cronulla defeated Brisbane 20-10 to give us a more than handy result on Saturday night, but an injury to Brett Kimmorley has meant that the return to form by the Sharks has probably come to an abrupt end. Brisbane went into this game with injury worries, and came out of it worse off, not a good time of the season to be racking up an injury toll. The Bronco's attracted two win bets of $10,000 at $1.52 in this match, as well as three $5000 wagers conceding 5½ points start. The money on Sunday was for the Bulldogs to beat a handicap of 19 over Souths, and for the Knights to beat Manly by more than 16 points. The results were shared here in two amazing games. Souths trailed by 20-8 at half time, but could easily have been level. It was at this stage that we thought we had a good chance to hang on to three bets of $10,000 taken on the Bulldogs giving up the huge start, but they came out in the second half and completely blew Souths away, winning by 50 points. In the other match, Newcastle looked well on the way to winning by a similar score when the led Manly 18-0. Andrew Johns was struggling with injuries, and then Newcastle also hit the wall, with Manly bouncing back to make it 18-18 at half time. The Eagles momentarily hit the front in the second half, but Newcastle steadied the ship to win 36-28, but it was far from impressive. Newcastle were one of the best backed 'handicap' sides of the round, and also had win bets of $20,000 and $15,000 placed on them at $1.14, but just like the Roosters supporters who took the short odds to win, they managed to escape with a victory. This week, an injury ridden Brisbane Bronco's side who have only tasted victory once at the new Suncorp Stadium will be well and truly tested by Penrith, who were on the receiving end of some poor decisions last week in a narrow loss to the Dragons. Normally when Brisbane play at home it is hard to keep punters off them, but there are plenty of reasons why Brisbane can’t win this, and we have found them difficult to sell at $1.80. Having said that, there hasn't been much interest in Penrith either. Cronulla are getting a big start (15½) against the Roosters on Saturday night, but the indications are there that punters don’t think that will be enough. Two early bets of $2500 have gone on the Roosters conceding the start, and being a $1.13 pop, they are involved in every multiple. The lingering doubt over Andrew Johns hasn’t deterred punters with two $10,000 bets coming for the Knights to beat the Cowboys on Saturday night. The 2003 season has gone from bad to worse for Souths, and this week they find themselves 12 point underdogs to Wests. Souths won the corresponding match in round one by ten points, but both sides have gone down different paths since then. The Tigers thrashed Newcastle two weeks ago, and were unlucky against Parramatta last week, while Souths have become the 'whipping boys' of the comp. Punters are finding it hard to bring themselves to take such a short quote for Wests, but on form, they should easily account for the Rabbitohs, however there has been a $12,000 bet for Souths with the start. Tipping favourites shouldn't be our caper, but with Stacy Jones still out of the Warriors side, then the Dragons should be able to get over the top of the Kiwi's on Sunday. We have been trying to entice punters with the 8½ points start for New Zealand, and got two big bites of $8000 and $7000. The Bulldogs went on a try scoring rampage last week, and that might well continue this week against Melbourne. The Bulldogs beat the Storm in Melbourne 26-12 back in round 15, and have really found form over the past three weeks. The Storm had a torrid match against New Zealand last week, and while the 10½ points they are receiving this week looks rather high, we have already taken three bets totaling just under $9000 for the Bulldogs conceding the start. Losses to Brisbane, Canberra and Penrith last week have seen us shorten the Bulldogs and Roosters in premiership betting. The Bulldogs are into $3, just ahead of the Roosters at $3.75, and with these two sides likely to finish at the top of the table, they seem certain to maintain their places at the head of betting. RUGBY UNION If some of the Springboks decide to give rugby away, they might have a future in WWF if their antics of last Saturday night are anything to go by, but then again maybe their tactics would need cleaning up there as well! How their management can justify the damage done to Brendan Cannon's body by scratching and biting as being 'part of the game' is absurd, and the whole episode hasn't done them many favours over this side of the world. Now the South Africans have to go to Dunedin this week with all of New Zealand and Australia hoping that they get absolutely belted! Last weeks match was tight for the entire first half, which saw the score all tied up at 6-6 at the major break. The Wallabies had the backing of punters as they had firmed from $1.33 into $1.28. Most of the bigger bets, including two of £5000 at -9½ points, had come from England, with a lot of Aussie punters preferring to keep away from this game following three defeats in a row for the Wallabies. Even though they did go on and win the game by 20 points, we didn't see much cause to alter the World Cup price of Australia by much, just bringing them in slightly to $5. We have hardly taken a bet for them this week, so punters must still be concerned with their form. On form, how are South Africa going to stop the All Blacks from giving them a flogging (on the scoreboard at least) in this weeks match in Dunedin? It will probably be cold and miserable down the south of New Zealand, and following New Zealand's 52-16 whitewash of the Springboks two weeks ago, the handicap was always going to be set at a high mark. $1.06, and -23½ for New Zealand seemed like a fair place to start, but that was quickly taken by several Kiwi punters, one placing $20,000 to win at the $1.06, with another placing $7000 at the minus points. The form guide predicts a big win, but it is amazing how it doesn't always pan out that way. The other niggling doubt we have about New Zealand covering such a big spread this week is that they they still have a tough match against Australia coming up next week to wrap up the Tri Nations, so the intensity may not be there on this weeks match. FORMULA ONE Ralf Schumacher was the villain in Hockenheim when he 'took out' Rubens Barrichello and Kimi Raikkonen shortly after the start, thus incurring a ten spot grid penalty in the next Grand Prix in Hungary. Just for good measure, Williams team bosses have now come out and said that there is a possibility of 'team play' in the remaining four races if it means the chances of either Schumacher or Juan Pablo Montoya could get them the Drivers Championship, and with Montoya now only six points behind Michael Schumacher, that must be a real chance. We have taken the step of closing the Championship book as it is now to dangerous to bet on, and we would assume that betting on the upcoming events might take a turn for the worse after this information as well. We all remember the furor when the Ferrari's gave each other some assistance on different occasions, so this isn't really that different. Anyway, back to last weeks race, and this was an event that went to punters clearly when Montoya was heavily backed before winning. Prior to the qualifying sessions, two German clients backed Montoya ($5.50) to win in excess of $30,000. When he qualified quickest, we took another two bets of $4000 and $2000 at $2.60. Although Montoya was a loser for us, it was at this stage that we saw the most activity for the season so far, with close to $20,000 coming for Ralf Schumacher at $2.75, and loyal Michael Schumacher fans were eager on the $5.50 for him to win. We did salvage something from our 'top three' and 'top eight' books when two of the best backed were Ralf Schumacher and Raikkonen, the first turn casualties. ENTERTAINMENT Long odds on favourite Leo Pusa beat his own world record easily in last weekends World Sauna Championships, but it was Finnish compatriot Timo Kaukonen, a $26 chance, who raised the biggest sweat to win the time-honoured event in a staggering 16 minutes and 15 seconds, 8 seconds ahead of Pusa. In fact Finland provided all six finalists, with Aussie competitor Luke Edwards missing out on a berth in the sweaty final. While this event didn't break any betting records, over a dozen competitors were backed, with Pusa carrying the bulk of support, eventually starting $1.30 after opening at $1.50. The Australian press really 'warmed' to this story, and should we again have a competitor next year, no doubt the event will receive big coverage. Locally, three Victorians getting their heads shaved would not normally be 'entertainment', but it was different last Friday when Brownlow medalist Gerard Healy, ex-Australian cricketer David Hookes and St Kilda's Andrew Thompson, had their locks shaved off as part of the police charity ‘bluey day’. Centrebet was involved as being the sponsor for the head shaving, worth $1000 a head, but looking at some of the photographs of both Hookes and Healy following their haircuts, we might have been doing the public a favour if we had paid for them NOT to have their heads shaved. The sight of both rekindled memories of Uncle Fester from the Adam's Family. Betting on 'The Block' is rolling along nicely as the show draws to a close. This week will see the judging of the fifth and final room, after which time each apartment will go to auction to find the winner. Fiona and Adam remain hot favourites at $1.25, but each of the four couples have had several bets placed on them to walk away with the major prize. GOLF Australians were to the fore in three golf events we covered last week, with the best performance belonging to Adam Scott who returned to the winners list to win the Scandinavian Masters in Sweden. It has been a year since Scott won, and in that time punters have deserted him. We haven't, as we kept the Queensland youngster safe at $21. We took a few small each way bets for him before the event started, and the only significant bet was $800 at $2.75 when he entered the last day equal leader with Maarten Lafeber. Scott had missed five of the previous seven cuts, but there is no doubting his ability when his mind is on the job. In the US, Geoff Ogilvy and Paul Gow were the Aussie stars of the Buick Open. Ogilvy played the last round with Tiger Woods, shooting a 65, one less than Tiger, which saw him tie for second behind Jim Furyk. Gow also showed a return to form to tie for eighth, and is a chance to retain his tour card. Like Adam Scott, Furyk was well in the betting at 413, but punters didn't really warm to his chances, even when coming into the last round as favourite at $2.30. A Sydney client placed $2000 at that quote, but Furyk's win was a very handy result. Tiger started favourite, but we got a lot more out of him after the event started than we did before, including a £2000 wager at $3.25 after the second round. Vijay Singh was our worst result, backed to win $70,000 at $11, but like Tiger, is out of sorts at the moment. The same punter has come back this week and backed Singh to win $50,000 at $12. Singh is a previous winner of the International. Another player backed to take out the same amount is Davis Love at $15, but he is another who has been struggling of late. Another Australian punter has joined in with a $3000 bet for Sergio Garcia at $21, and with Kirk Triplett ($67) and Stephen Ames ($101) each backed to win $30,000, all of a sudden we had a good betting event on our hands within hours of the betting opening. Favourite Ernie Els has also been relatively easy to lay at $8, even though he has been going poorly by his standards. Els, also a winner of this event, has an imposing record of seven top ten finishes in the past ten years of this event, and this might be where the big South African returns to the winners list. Danish hero Thomas Bjorn is $5 favourite to win the Nordic Open in Denmark this week, and his countrymen are getting right behind him at that price. Bjorn is easily the best backed, but there hasn’t been a big individual bet as yet. Our Danish punters have also been eager to take the $34 on offer for both Soren and Anders Hansen, while an Australian client was in early, backing Raymond Russell ($67), Gary Murphy ($67) and Jamie Donaldson ($81) all to win close to $20,000. Australia's best hope appears to be Peter O'Malley, a $26 chance in our market, although we rate New Zealand veteran Greg Turner ($61) a rough hope at the big odds. Until next week, good punting. For further information contact Gerard Daffy at Centrebet on 08 89555800 or on centrebet@centrebet.com.
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
