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Aussie
Rules
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Centrebet Capers
AUSTRALIAN RULES Collingwood landed the biggest plunge of the year when comfortable 37 point victors over a 'flu ridden’ Adelaide on Friday night. The Magpies came in from an opening $1.85 to start at $1.45, and there was money all the way down. A $15,000 bet at $1.80 got the ball rolling on Thursday when news leaked out that most of the Crows side had been hit by a virus and on Friday the two biggest wagers were $20,000 at $1.50 and another bet of the same size arrived at $1.48. The Crows blew out to $2.75, and even the most ardent of their supporters couldn't be enticed at that quote. They were in the game until half time, but just simply ran out of legs in the second half. Just as we trying to come to grips with that result, punters came at us hard on Saturday night when Hawthorn came in from $1.65 to $1.45 to beat the Kangaroos. Another two $20,000 bets were placed on this game, both for the Hawks, and both at $1.50. The Kangaroos led for the first three quarters, with Hawthorn kicking eight goals in the last quarter to win by 14 points. While all of that was going on, Melbourne fought their way back into their match against Port Adelaide, and although beaten 112-98, the forward showing by the Demons saw us claw some of our losses back. There was ample support for Port conceding 43½ points start, with a Victorian man placing $20,000 at that handicap, then ringing back half an hour later to place another $10,000 on at -45½ points. It has been a very poor year for the Demons, but at least from our point of view they picked the right time to play some decent football. The Sydney Swans provided one of the shocks of the season when they simply outplayed Brisbane to win at the Gabba by 14 points, the third game in a row where that was that winning margin. The Lions dominated the first half of the game which was played in driving rain, but strangely when the sun came out it was the Swans who got their running game going to post a very important victory. There had been some support for the Swans at the $4.75 mark, as well as two $5000 bets for them with 29 points start, but down with Brisbane went three separate $10,000 bets at -29 points, and countless large multi's including the Lions to win. As it turned out, the Lions were the only favourites to go down at the weekend, so we were more than happy to come out of the round with a small profit. One big multiple was landed on Sunday however when a punter from Melbourne placed $20,000 on Essendon (-28½) into Fremantle (-34½), finishing the bet off with the Sydney Roosters to win in the NRL, the return being $108,000. This week looks to be an uninspiring round from a betting perspective apart from Saturday night's big clash between Sydney and Collingwood. Given the current form of these two, the Telstra Stadium should be packed, and there is a real 'state of origin' feel about the game itself, and the betting. Parochial Sydneysiders have jumped straight in and grabbed the $1.82 for the Swans, but against that there are two early bets of $5000 for Collingwood at $1.95, and that support looks like it will also continue. Both have also been well backed to win the flag this week, with bets of $2000 and $1000 for Collingwood at $5.50, while the Swans ($11) have been backed to win $150,000 in a premiership double with Penrith. All bar one of the long odds on favourites this week play at home, and early trading has seen plenty of money bet through all the favourite combinations. We have also taken a $9000 bet for Essendon to beat Fremantle at $1.33. The 21 point handicap allocated to the Bombers has also been taken with bets of $6000 and $4400, but the danger in taking the big minuses at this stage of the season is that coaches might take their bigger names off the field when the match is theirs. For that reason alone, it seems a good argument for laying all the big handicaps for a little extra this week, and punters have been accommodating with early bets of $8000 for Brisbane at -36½ points against Geelong, and $10,000 for the West Coast to beat a 30 point spread against Melbourne. Port Adelaide are back into outright premiership favouritism at $3 after last weeks loss by Brisbane, but betting on the title has gone quiet this week as punters try and work out who is likely to finish where on the ladder. Most of the players at the top of Brownlow betting played well last week, but St Kilda veteran Robert Harvey, now into $7, is the player that has seen the most action this week. The bets have been small, but there is a bet of $200 on Harvey that was placed after round four that will yield a Victorian man $25,000 if he can win the award for a second time. RUGBY LEAGUE The announcement last Thursday afternoon that Newcastle's Andrew Johns would be out for the rest of the season sent punters into an absolute frenzy. The rumour was out early on Thursday that Johns was injured, and we took the precaution of turning the game off until that was confirmed. We took hundreds of calls from punters wanting to back the New Zealand Warriors to beat the Knights, but they had to go away disappointed when the bookies were ahead of the information trail for a change. When betting did reopen, the Knights went from $1.25 with Johns in, to $1.80 without him. For differing reasons, the game turned out to be one of the biggest Friday night betting games for the year. A Sydney punter placed the biggest bet, $30,000, on the Warriors at $2.20, but he was closely followed by another from Sydney who had three bets totaling $27,000 on Newcastle conceding 3½ points start. The Warriors looked likely to bury the Knights when they led 10-2, but on the back of a high penalty count, and some inspiration, the Knights scored one of their best 'Johnsless' wins 36-20. Key withdrawals to Canberra and Brisbane saw money come for their respective opponents with the handicap start, but punters weren't really that keen on the winning chances of either North Qld or Wests Tigers. As it turned out, both won, with both sides being $5.25 to win at one stage. The 'mail' around Friday was that Clinton Schifcofske would be out of the Raiders side, and that sparked bets of $10,000 and $8000 for the Cowboys with 14½ points start. Upon confirmation Saturday that Schifcofske and Brad Drew were out, the handicap moved into 12 points, but at that mark there was interest in both sides. It was a similar case the Bronco's v Tigers game. Confirmation that Brisbane full-back Darren Lockyer would not be ready to play saw two $5000 bets come for the Tigers with the start, but just like the Canberra game, when the handicap got into 12 points start, money came for both sides. After being level at half time, the Cowboys put last weeks debacle behind them to race in three quick tries before going on to win 34-28. Cronulla returned to something like their best form to beat the Dragons 25-16 on Saturday night, and in doing so all but ended the Dragons' quest for a top eight berth. Both of these sides have played inconsistent football all year, but punters got right behind the Dragons, who firmed from $1.60 into $1.45. Several $5000 bets were placed on them conceding 5 and 6 points start, as well as a win bet of $16,500 at $1.50. Betting on Sunday's matches was centered around the Roosters and Parramatta. The -20½ points that the Roosters were conceding Souths was popular, including bets of $10,000 and $7700, but the landscape of the game changed when Brad Fittler left the field early in the game with a shoulder injury. The Roosters had a battle on their hands, but eventually prevailed 22-10, a win, but not by enough for those who took the minus. We rated Parramatta as good 'risks' when they traveled to Melbourne on Sunday, and although the Eels led 8-2 early in the game, they were thumped 50-12 in the finish. The money came thick and fast for Parramatta, including three bets of $10,000 for them with 6 points start, and on the day of the match another bet of $11,000 came with 5 points start. Favourite backers didn't write Melbourne's chances off though, and one client from Sydney threw $20,000 on the three Sunday favourites to win at $1.95. This week, the Dragons are $1.55 to keep their slim finals hopes alive when they take on Melbourne on Friday night. With Mark Gasnier back, we assumed that punters would want to be on the Dragons, but the first $20,000 on the match has been for Melbourne with the start (4 points). Parramatta host Cronulla on Saturday, with only pride at stake. Cronulla had a big win last week, but haven't played two matches alike all season. The Eels were woeful against Melbourne, but of course there has to be a winner here, and we think it will be the Eels. The opening $2.50 Cronulla was taken by two Kiwis, each with $2000, but then the money dried up, so following the events that normally take place on Sunday matches, it seems certain that the Eels might start shorter than the $1.50 we are currently offering. Canberra are back at home, and back to full strength, so we have installed them as 6 point favourites over Newcastle on Sunday. The loss of Andrew Johns has to hurt the Knights, but we were surprised that a Sydney client placed $15,000 on them as soon as the betting opened. They got a very good run from the referee in last weeks match, and that is unlikely to happen down in front of a raucous Raiders crowd. It's an important match for both clubs with top four finishes on the line. ELECTIONS Australian Labor leader Simon Crean hasn't really been in the news over the past few weeks, but he must be doing something right in the community as there has been a steady stream of bets coming through for Labor to win the next election at $4. None of the bets are large, with the biggest being only $100, but the fact that there are takers at that price right at this point in time must be a positive for the Labor Party. There hasn't been any news of an early election being called, but if Prime Minister John Howard does call us to the polls, it might not be the landslide victory it was last time. GOLF While this PGA season has been dominated by the elite of golf, the Majors on the other hand have produced some astonishing results. All four Majors have been won by players winning their first Major and in two of the cases, the more recent British Open won by Ben Curtis and now the PGA won by Shaun Micheel, by players winning their maiden tour event. Micheel's achievement in winning the Wanamaker Trophy at his 161st tournament appearance reeks of a fairy tale, only embellished by his miraculous shot, a 7 iron, on the 72nd hole which finished only two inches from the cup and snuffed out any opportunity of Chad Campbell, also a maiden on the tour, from snatching victory from a player everybody expected to succumb to the pressure. However it was in fact Micheel who withstood all the pressure and challenges with a solid even par round 70, while others such as the more fancied Campbell, Els and Weir, all having over par rounds, and, with the exception of Campbell, failing to seriously challenge. The result for Centrebet was magnified even further when you consider minor place getters, Tim Clark and Alex Cejka, were also bolters attempting to break their maiden status on the PGA tour, and like Micheel were completely neglected in the betting. Lets turn our attention to this weeks events, the WGC-NEC Invitational and the PGA's Reno Tahoe Open. While we have had a spate of bolters in this years Majors punters see it less likely in this weeks NEC Invitational where Tiger Woods has been installed $4.25 fav in a class field featuring the likes of Els, Love Singh and Weir. Els has been well supported with one wager of $8000 at $9 while $4000 has been placed on Singh at $16 and best backed of the roughies has been Thomas Bjorn with one wager of $1000 at $67. While Woods was disappointing in finishing in a tie for 39th at last weeks PGA, let it be mentioned that there are only eighty-six competitors in this event and $4.25 represents good value particularly at a time where one should be wary of the wounded Tiger. The Reno Tahoe on the other hand sees Scott McCarron installed as $15 fav in a field lacking quality at the top of the betting which explains why punters have looked at value with the likes of J.J Henry, Frank Lickliter, Craig Perks and Brandel Chamblee all well supported. It is to be remembered Chris Riley won his maiden tour event here last year and that pattern may continue this year. On other tours last week Se Ri Pak won her third event of the year when she recorded a thirteen under par total in winning the Jamie Farr Kroger Classic in Ohio from Marisa Baena and emerging star Hee Won Han. Pak was well supported and started $4.50 fav from Han and out of sorts Australian Karrie Webb and again she has been supported starting $4.25 to win the Wachovia LPGA Classic from Webb and Lorena Ochoa who is threatening to win her first title. Pak is the defending champion here as well and judging from last years finish to the season where Pak and Sorenstam won eight of the remaining ten events, she should prove difficult to stop. On the Champions tour Jim Thorpe recorded his sixth title when he over took Bob Gilder on the 17th hole with a birdie to win the Long Island Classic. Gilder is defending champion at this weeks Allianz Championship at Glen Oaks and judging by his form of last week proves to be good value at $23. Many players have been well supported including Alan Doyle at $21, Tom Purtzer at $29 and last weeks winner Jim Thorpe at $29 but anything can happen on what is proving to be an even Champions tour. RUGBY UNION Last weeks Bledisloe Cup decider at Eden Park, Auckland, lived up to the hype that was deserving of a clash of the Southern Hemisphere titans as the All Blacks proved a little too composed for the Wallabies winning 21-17. Punters were keen to take the $1.20 on offer the All Blacks, first bet being $15,000 from a UK client however the Wallabies were not without their admirers and after a string of wagers on the Wallabies receiving 14 points start at $1.90, they commenced the game with a 13½ point start at $1.85. Punters were right on the mark as the All Blacks saluted and the Wallabies were able to keep in touch so as punters who backed the Wallabies receiving a start also collected. While it was a poor result for Centrebet the performance of the Wallabies in recent weeks indicate that the World Cup is no longer a two horse race with the All Blacks $2.05 fav from the might of England at $3.25 and the Wallabies third pick at $4.75. A semi-final in Sydney against the All Black could well see a different result as the Australian backs gain experience and continuity and with the return of Sterling Mortlock comes a further weapon to the Wallaby backline. In this week’s Internationals, Wales host England while Italy goes to Edinburgh to take on the Scots. Neither of these games should shed too much light on the fate of these countries in the World Cup other than to suggest that neither Wales nor Italy have the class to threaten. Either way the Wallabies have now signaled their intention to retain the Web Ellis trophy. FOOTBALL English football followers had an extremely good start to the new season on Saturday when no less than six of the seven favourites won, but Centrebet did fight back to some degree when all three favourites failed to deliver on Sunday. Allegiances are hard to break, and punters have already shown that they are more than happy to stick with Man United and Arsenal again this season. These two sides were involved in nearly every football multiple for the weekend, and while Arsenal ($1.33) struggled against Everton, they still came away with the points when they recorded a 2-1 victory. Man United made the task at hand look easy with a 4-0 win over Bolton, and maintain their place at the top of betting to win the league title at $2.25 after round one. While Man United were coupled up in multiples, we did find Bolton had admirers at the big odds ($11), with two bets alone of £500 coming from English clients. The side that has been backed all over the world to take the title is Chelsea, and after disposing of Liverpool 2-1 on Sunday, there are already signs there that new owner Roman Abramovich could have success on a regular basis with his new team. Chelsea look certain to be a 'boom' side with punters this season, and although there was plenty of small money around for them to beat Liverpool at $2.85, most of the bigger bets were on Liverpool, including one of £6000 at $2.35. That unexpected 'away' win has seen us cut Chelsea's price to $3.75, and with a nice draw coming up over the next few weeks, it is quite possibly that they may be vying for favouritism shortly. They have home games against Leicester, Blackburn and Tottenham before their next road trip, and with the first big 'test' being a visit to Arsenal on October 18, by then the Blues could be in a strong position to win their first championship in nearly 50 years. Money from Asia was scarce in the first round, nothing new really as most prefer to sit back for a few weeks to monitor the form. One side that did attract interest from that Region was Newcastle, with three $10,000 bets coming in at $2.35, $2.30 and $2.25. Leeds, who have been well supported to be relegated, held them to a 2-2 draw. The game of the round this week will see Newcastle host Man United on Saturday. Man United won the corresponding match 6-2 last season, the early spread of money across all three options indicate that this result could go any way. We have already seen two bets totaling $12,000 come from Norway for Man United at $2.10, but the money from England has been focused on a draw at $3.30. This match will be televised live, and will be the first of four games covered 'live in running' by Centrebet over the course of the weekend. Prices will be displayed on our web site, but Australian clients will unfortunately have to ring through with their bets after the game starts, a local law that hopefully will be rescinded soon! Until next week, good punting. For further information contact Gerard Daffy at Centrebet on 08 89555800 or on centrebet@centrebet.com.
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