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Aussie
Rules
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Centrebet Capers
AUSTRALIAN RULES The Adelaide Crows may have shot themselves in the foot with a 10 point loss to the Kangaroos at the weekend, but bookies around the country would be thankful that they did as the Crows were the only favourites to go down, but that loss, and Port Adelaide's failure to cover the handicap against Richmond, was enough to see Centrebet come out on the right side of the ledger. Things got off to a bad start when Hawthorn handed out a 74 point drubbing to Carlton. Two $10,000 bets on the handicap of -35½ points was the start of a rush for the Hawks to beat the spread, and they never let supporters down. Essendon made it nine wins from their last ten matches when they defeated Fremantle, but when Dustin Fletcher didn't line up for the Bombers, all the late money was for Fremantle to win and also with 20 points start. The win by the Kangaroos killed off nearly every multi bet taken up until that stage, as well as win bets of $16,000 and $10,000 for the Crows at $1.14. The handicap of -30½ was also heavily backed, including a wager of $11,000, and although we normally see some sort of support for outsiders, there was hardly a ripple for the Kangaroos at $5.50, or with the start. Even the prospect of bad weather didn't inspire any bets for them at the handicap, and the Kangaroos once again reiterated why they are the favourite team of the bookies. Those who took the -36½ for Brisbane over Geelong scraped home by the barest possible margin when Brisbane won by 37 points. There were plenty of winners here, including a bet of $9000 from a Victorian punter. The other game on Saturday night was one of the year’s biggest betting games which went to the punters when Collingwood defeated the Sydney Swans by 3 goals. The Magpies came in from an opening $1.95 to start at $1.85, with the largest single bet for them being $30,000 at $1.90. The Swans fans got behind there side however, with two $10,000 bets coming from the Harbour City, but the majority of big bets were with the victors. Sunday saw punters rally when all three favourites won, but it could have been a lot worse. The sad passing of Richmond legend Jack Dyer saw the price of the Tigers come in from $5 to start at $3.30 against Port Adelaide. The handicap moved a whopping 6 points as well, but we found a couple of big bets (one of $13,000) for Port conceding the start. Richmond at least displayed some fight this time, but the result was the same, another loss, but only by 20 points. The final round this week is more intriguing than in years gone by, due mainly to the uncertainty of where teams are going to finish on the ladder. The 'Showdown' in Adelaide would normally be a betting extravaganza, but with Port Adelaide already having top spot wrapped up, and the Crows going down to the Roos last week, punters have kept right away from this one in early trading. The 'game of the round' is undoubtedly Collingwood v Essendon on Friday night, and with both sides in stellar form, and having plenty to play for, we have a good betting contest on our hands. Collingwood are slight fav's at $1.75, attracting early bets of $7000 and $5000, bet a series of bets totaling just over $20,000 went on Essendon in the first two days of betting at $2, so obviously punters are divided on who will win. Melbourne have been woeful this year, but we rate them a chance to spring an upset on Sydney at the MCG on Saturday. The Swans played in heavy conditions last week, and that may have some affect on them if they strike a dry track in Melbourne. If it's wet, they look to be a bigger risk, as they really struggled when it was raining against Collingwood. One intrepid punter has placed $10,000 on Brisbane to win $800 against Geelong on Saturday night, while there have been two early bets of $2000 for Hawthorn to cover a 20 point handicap against Richmond on Sunday. The premiership plot thickens each week, with the big mover from last weeks round being Collingwood, whose price has been slashed to $4.50. Should the Magpies beat Essendon and finish second, that price will be cut even more, and as we all know, they are a popular side when they strike form. Port Adelaide remain equal favourites at $3, but punters have been scared off taking that price. In fact, if it was any other team perched at the top of the ladder, three games clear, and guaranteed two home finals, they would be 'odds on'. It's a very strange business that we are in! RUGBY LEAGUE Favourite followers of rugby league fared pretty well over the weekend when five of the seven won, with all covering their allocated handicaps as well. St George Illawarra would have to go down as one of the disappointments of season 2003, and following another enigmatic performance when beaten 22-14 by Melbourne last Friday night, it is hard to believe that the Dragons can still make the playoffs, mathematically speaking. This was a strange betting game in so much that the early money was for Melbourne ($20,000 at +4 points), then we had two days of money for the Dragons (including three separate bets of $10,000 conceding 5 points start), before the late money came again for Melbourne when Dragons half-back Brett Firman pulled out. Although the Friday night fixtures are normally lower scoring affairs than the rest of the weekend, we also took two $10,000 bets (one from New Zealand) that the game total would exceed 43½ points. When Melbourne led 22-2 at half time, those who were on the 'overs' were entitled to think they had the cash, but the Storm never scored in the second half, while the Dragons added 12 points to see the total fall 8 points short. There was also money for the 'overs' in all three Saturday night games, and this time there was no nail biting finishes as all finished over 60 points. Each match was won by the favourite, with each covering the 'line', so it was a good night for punters. The big losers were of course the bookies, and the game itself. The Parramatta v Cronulla was a disgrace, and the North Qld v Souths game wasn't much better. Unfortunately now with league, once we get away from the top sides playing each other, the game has become like touch football, and nobody wants to see that. It's not hard to work out that if you had the choice of watching the Sydney Swans v Collingwood, or Parramatta to beat a 10 man Cronulla side 74-4, it would take a fraction of a second to decide. Two of Sunday’s games were a lot tighter, mainly due to poor weather, and better match-ups. We thought New Zealand were entitled to be favourites when at home to Brisbane, but the money was the other way, even after Brisbane ruled out Richard Swain. We had already laid the Bronco's for plenty, but with Swain out, they looked very light on for playmakers, so we went back to $1.90. Several large bets, which included $15,000 and $12,300, force a price change, and punters were even taking $1.75 when the game started. The form slump of the Bronco's continued when, after leading 10-4 early in the second half, the Warriors over-ran them to win 22-14, and it is possible (again mathematically) that the Bronco's could miss the finals. Gorden Tallis is back this week, and that might be just what they need. Newcastle had to travel to the 'Arctic Circle', or Canberra as we know it, on Sunday to take on the Raiders. There was money for the Knights, $15,000 with 6 points start when betting opened, $15,000 with seven points start, and $10,000 to win at 42.80, with the latter two bets coming on Sunday. 'Standing' outsiders is not really what we are about, but the prices available for the Knights appeared well 'unders' considering where they were playing, and of course they were without Andrew Johns. The Knights were valiant in a 24-16 point defeat, but as it turned out it was probably the wet and greasy conditions that kept them in touch for the whole game. This week, Canberra play Friday night, and that alone makes them a 'risk' in our book. Teams always struggle on the back of a five day break, and with the Raiders having played Sunday in those heavy conditions, and having to face up to a rampant Bulldogs side, we can’t find an argument for how they can win. That is reflected in the betting, with the Bulldogs at $1.25, or -11½, while Canberra are $4. Lack of interest in Canberra at that price has vindicated our assessment, and the Bulldogs look certain to start at a shorter quote. Gorden Tallis is back for Brisbane this week, but their form has been poor, and Parramatta have upset the Bronco's in the past, so this is a real danger game. The Eels can still make the eight if they win their last two, and Brisbane or Newcastle hit hurdles, so it is important for both sides. Brisbane have been backed early, with bets of $6000 and $4800 coming in as soon as betting opened at $1.50, and those were followed by three bets totaling $17,000 for Brisbane at -5½. The Roosters have also been backed early in the week to beat the Warriors on Sunday. The $1.45 was quickly snapped up by a Sydney punter with $12,000, and the -7½ was also taken with two $5000 bets coming from NSW. The talk is that the Warriors might struggle after being involved in last weeks 'slugfest' against Brisbane, and upon reflection, that might be right. The closest betting game of the round will see the Tigers host the Cowboys on Sunday, and while the thought of that matchup might not inspire the dour rugby league purists, it has been quite a good betting game. Only pride is at stake here, but both sides have attracted support, firstly Wests with bets of $6000 and $4800 at $1.75, and then we saw a wave of betting for the Cowboys, including a bet of $11,000 at $2.10. You would have thought that Dragons supporters had taken a big enough battering recently to keep away from lining up to back them as favourites again this week, but they have! The $1.55 for St George to beat Newcastle was taken as soon as betting opened, and given that we were prepared to risk Newcastle again this week, we made a quick alteration to the price. We still can’t find a lot of support for the Knights at $2.55, so the Dragons look destined to around as one of the best backed sides of the round again! TENNIS It just doesn't seem like the US Open this year with the Williams sisters absent through injury, and a host of 'new kids on the block' at the top of the betting to win the men’s title. That has seen a big drop in the level of interest to win both titles, but as we have said before, there has to be a winner, and as the week progresses, we should begin to see some heavy betting come for each final. One player who has attracted support in the men’s draw has been Andy Roddick. We posted him favourite at $3.50, and just prior to his first round match with Tim Henman, one of our newer clients from China placed $10,000 on the American at that quote. Roger Federer was second elect at $4.50, ahead of the ever reliable Andre Agassi at $6.50. We haven't seen a big single wager for Agassi, but he has had nearly as many bets placed on him to win as what we have taken in total for all the rest of the men’s draw. Lleyton Hewitt was neglected pre tournament at $9, but he was so impressive in the opening round that we think he can go all the way, especially now that his ordinary recent form has taken a lot of public pressure off him. Amazingly, more money was placed on Mark Philippoussis ($23) by Australian punters than Hewitt. It doesn't take much for the public to turn against you, does it? While Hewitt has been hard to sell, his girlfriend, Kim Clijsters, has been one of the best backed to win the women’s title at $2.75. Clijsters, and Justine Henin-Hardenne, were elevated to equal favourtism at that quote following the late withdrawal of Venus Williams, but it was Clijsters who gathered most support. The niggling doubt we have about Clijsters is that while she is the world's number one player, she is yet to win a major, and the few opportunities that she has had to do so, she has 'choked'. The first round betting was a lot quieter than last year, but that was to be expected as consistency isn't a word that springs to mind recently when talking about tennis. The first round losses to Greg Rusedski, Sebastian Grosjean, Chandra Rubin and Magdalena Maleeva saw the bookies pounce to a handy lead, something that rarely happens on a hard court surface. ELECTIONS Pauline Hanson has made headlines all over the world following her three year jail term for electoral fraud, but with the talk around that Tony Abbott may have been running a one man crusade against Hanson at the taxpayers expense, there has been a shift in betting to win the next election. Prime Minister John Howard has come under scrutiny for this, and several other issues recently, and that has had an impact on betting on who will win the next election. Public sympathy for Hanson has seen dozens of small bets come in this week for the Labor Party, who are now $3 after being $4 early last week. Overseas, and the betting on whether or not Arnold Schwarzenegger will be the next Governor of California has seen some interesting trends. It seems the whole world has an opinion on this outcome, particularly in Scandinavia. 'Big Arnie' has been backed by several Norwegians at $2 'not' to be elected, but the rally for him to win has seen that price blow out to $2.20. A client from Canberra has placed a total of $8500 in three bets for Schwarzenegger to win, the last bet coming at $1.65. We don't know whether he is a movie buff, or is a devout follower of politics, but either way he has contributed towards making this the biggest political betting event for Centrebet this year. FOOTBALL Late money from Asia saw Man United go into last Saturday’s clash with Newcastle as clear favourites. The early trading had seen some money for the draw at $3.30, and a little for Newcastle at $3.15, but three changes to the Newcastle side saw three bets totaling just under $63,000 come for Man United, and that was after they had shortened to $2.05. Newcastle scored the first goal through Alan Shearer at the 26 minute mark, and for the entire first half they looked capable of hanging on for victory. At this stage, Man United had touched $3.30, but fortunately punters didn't think they could come back. Several bets, including one of $5000, were placed on Newcastle at $2, but goals to Man United in the 51st and 59th minute put an end to Newcastle’s winning chances. The biggest 'go' of the round was Liverpool, who played out a 0-0 draw with Aston Villa. After opening at $2.20, Liverpool were backed into $2, with some of the bigger bets including $30,000 at $2.15 (from Malaysia) and €10,000 from Germany. Liverpool have looked anything but Premiership material so far, and their title odds have blown from $7 out to $21. Man United still hold sway at the top of betting at $2.10 ahead of Arsenal at $3 and Chelsea at $3.50, and the latter two confirmed that status by winning midweek. Liverpool were again held to a scoreless draw, this time by Tottenham, but we have already taken two bets of $2000 for them to beat Everton this weekend at $2.50. Of the 'name' sides this weekend, Chelsea are the side targeted in early betting, particularly through multiples. The $1.55 for a Chelsea win over Blackburn has also been taken by an Austrian punter with €8000, while a trickle of early money from Asia has arrived for Middlesbrough at $2.20 to beat Leeds. The betting on last weeks German Bundesliga was fast and furious, and although five of the eight favourites won, the end result went our way. One that didn't was Bayern Munich's 2-0 win over Hamburg. Bayern were backed from $1.90 into $1.70, but the surprising factor here was that the two biggest bets, each of $10,000, came from Australian clients at $1.90 and $1.70. It is extremely rare to find an Aussie having a bet on German soccer, so perhaps there was a clue in that! Hertha attracted big bets including two of €4000 ($2.45) before they were held to a 0-0 draw by Frankfurt, while the hopes of most German punters went down when Leverkusen ($2.25) were defeated 1-0 by Bochum. In Denmark, the top of the table clash between Brondby and FCK proved to be an upset when FCK scored midway through the second half to win 1-0. The attractive $3.20 for an FCK win was 'layable', as was the draw at $3.30, but the big money was on Brondby, led by a bet of 40,000 DKK ($ AUD 8000) at $2.10. Punters didn't really fare much better for the rest of the round either, with biggest losses incurred when AB upset Herfolge 2-0, and Frem ($ 5.85) defeated Norsjaelland 3-1. FCK maintain title favourtism at $2 ahead of Brondby at $2.05, but Esbjerg's improved form has seen them elevated to $9, although they have a lot of work to do to arrest the title from either of the 'big two'. GOLF Darren Clarke has been somewhat of an enigma in the golfing world, perhaps an under achiever, laconic and likeable, but not often getting the job done. In a year where he has been consistent, yet not spectacular, he finally got the job done on a Sunday with a comprehensive victory at Firestone in winning the WGC-NEC Invitational by four strokes. It is his second victory in WGC events, his first being a victory over Tiger Woods in the 2000 Accenture World Matchplay title and along with Woods becomes only the second player to be a multiple winner in WGC events. It was also a victory which was stirring in the wind, as Clarke has had six top 10 finishes this year with his previous best finish being a tie for second behind Ernie Els, a month ago at the Barclays Scottish Open. And while there was good support for Woods, Els, Singh and Love, there were those golfing pundits who were aware of Clarke's consistent form this year and helped themselves to the spoils at $67. There is no doubt that after his flawless closing round of 67 that there will be more wins in store for Clarke, particularly with a new found approach to the game. Perhaps another under achiever was successful last week when Kirk Triplett won his second PGA tour event at the Reno-Tahoe Open. Triplett fired a course record closing round of nine under par 63 to shut out Tim Herron who has not won since 1999 at the Bay Hill Invitational. Punters could sense a first time winner emerging in this event with good support for the likes of Australian Rod Pampling and J.J Henry, and although Pampling finished in a tie for third, it was seasoned campaigners such as Triplett and Herron who finished atop of the leader board. This week we head to Boston for the inaugural Deutsche Bank Open where a very well supported Tiger Woods has been installed a firm favourite at $3.50 ahead of Vijay Singh at $10 and Jim Furyk at $12. Also well tried in this event are a couple of Australians, Robert Allenby, ($500 each way at $26) and Geoff Ogilvy, ($400 each way at $67) but punters have been slow to get involved in an event where there is no exposed form on the track. In Europe we head to Munich in Germany, where Thomas Bjorn will attempt to defend his BMW International title, which he also won in 2000. Bjorn has shown solid form in recent weeks and while failing to salute, should be well suited in this event where he has excellent track form. Favourite is Ernie Els at $4.75 while locals Alex Cejka and Bernhard Langer have also been the medium of good support. Other tours last week saw Candie Kung hold off Se Ri Pak to win her second LPGA tour event at the Wachovia LPGA Classic. Pak is favourite again this week at $4.75 to win the State Farm Classic from emerging stars Hee Won Han at $9, Grace Park at $10 and Lorena Ochoa at $17. On the Champions tour Don Pooley won his second tour event at the Allianz Championship, his first since shoulder surgery in January, when he held off the well supported Bruce Lietzke, Bruce Fleisher and Jim Thorpe. The final major of the year is held this week at the Jeld-Wen Tradition, and a cracker jack field has been assembled including favourite Tom Watson at $8, Stadler and Lietzke at $9. Best supported has been Tom Purtzer with one wager of $500 each way at $41. This is too close to call. Until next week, good punting. For further information contact Gerard Daffy at Centrebet on 08 89555800 or on centrebet@centrebet.com.
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