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Aussie
Rules
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Centrebet Capers
AUSTRALIAN RULES Only a week ago, the experts all agreed that the AFL premiership was a 'two horse race' between Brisbane and Port Adelaide, but in a stunning weekend of football, both were beaten, which has really reshaped the thinking of most. Melbourne, and to a lesser degree Geelong, have now entered discussions as serious threats come the final Saturday in September. Brisbane were odds on last week at $1.90 to win the flag, and we saw another $18,000 in bets come for the Lions. Port were solid in betting at $4, but the losses suffered by both has seen the Lions ease to $2, with Port now out to $5.50 equal second pick. Melbourne have joined them at that quote, and this week there has been nearly $3000 for the Demons, as well as a similar amount for Geelong at $10. Geelong are a big winner for us as they are a side that simply don’t catch the eye of punters, but they have a good chance to break into the top four, which may prove to be an advantage if the second placed side is an 'interstate' side that have to play the match at the MCG. Trying to work out where all these teams are going to finish is a nightmare, and results like last weekend aren't helping! Only two fav's managed to cover the handicap's last week, but the talk was all about the losses suffered by Brisbane and Port. Injuries to their opponents saw both of these sides firm dramatically in the betting, Brisbane from $1.38 into $1.30, with Port being one of the year’s biggest firmers, starting at $1.33 after opening at $1.60. A lot of that was to do with the late withdrawal (again) of James Hird, with the largest bet being $30,000 at $1.40. Brisbane were heavily backed through multis, including one bet of $40,000 coupled up with Port Adelaide, but having said that there was money for Sydney with bets of $5000 to win at 43.50, and two $5000 bets with 23½ points start. Hawthorn were backed in their encounter against Melbourne, and the winning margin to Melbourne of 44 points saw those who backed the Hawks with the start just scrape home. Early in the week we took a bet of $12,000 for Hawthorn with 51 points start, and on the day of the game we took another bet of $25,000 with 46 points start ($1.90), which also was a winner. There was also one ambitious bet of $2500 for Hawthorn to win at $8.50, perhaps placed by someone with a memory of the first round when Hawthorn thumped Melbourne, but they are a sorry site these days. This week, the price for all opening fav's to win is $8. Most look foregone conclusions, but they did last week and look at what happened! The first decent bet taken for the week was $12,000 on Fremantle at $1.18 to beat Collingwood on Friday night, and we have also taken a treble of $20,000 for the first three fav's (Freo, St Kilda and Essendon) all to win at $1.64. Essendon will apparently have James Hird back this week, which has seen bets of $5000 and $2500 come for the Bombers at -30½ points, and there is also an air of confidence surrounding Brisbane with two early bets of $2000 for them to cover a big 38 point handicap against the West Coast. RUGBY UNION South Africa really served it up to the Wallabies last week, but were narrowly beaten for the second week in a row. While they left to go home without a win, the Springboks would have derived a lot of confidence from their performances against both New Zealand and Australia, and the return bouts in South Africa could be extremely interesting. The betting on last weeks match in Perth saw plenty of money for Australia to win, but not a lot of interest in them to beat the handicap of -5½. That was a smart move by punters as the biggest handicap bets were two $5000 wagers, yet the 'win' price tumbled from $1.53 into $1.45, with a couple of the larger bets their being $18,000 and $10,000 at $1.50. One South African client would be cursing the fact that Wallabies winger Clyde Rathbone scored a try near the finish to give the Wallabies a 4 point victory as he had placed a bet of $8000 on South Africa to lead at half time and full time ($4.20), so there would be another reason for a South African to curse Rathbone's move to Australia. The Wallabies have met with good support to beat New Zealand on Saturday night. The betting hasn't moved, with New Zealand at $1.70 and Australia at $2.10, but of the first $20,000 wagered on the game, 75% was for the home side. A win to Australia would open the competition right up before the South African legs, and we have noticed a distinct lack of confidence from our New Zealand punters on this game. To date, the only decent bet for the Kiwi's has been $2500, and that has come from an English client, so there is a chance that the parochial money coming for Australia might see that price come in, and the All Blacks will drift. The weather was the big factor in their match a few weeks ago, and if the Wallabies can just get some consistency in their lineouts, we think that they can win. RUGBY LEAGUE For the second week in a row, rugby league punters took a battering when only four favourites won, with three of those covering the spread. The betting public were on target on Friday night when the Bulldogs recorded their eighth straight victory with a 46-20 point win over Penrith. There was a sprinkling of money for Penrith, but the bigger money saw the Bulldogs backed from $1.50 into $1.40. There were two $20,000 bets for the Bulldogs to win, and also three $5000 bets for them to beat a 7½ point handicap, and with the score 12-8 in favour of the Bulldogs, we thought we were a show. The second half become a match of touch football with 46 points scored, which put an end to those who bet on the game total being under 47½ points. Several substantial wagers were taken on Brisbane to beat Cronulla ($1.45) on Saturday evening, and for those who took the short odds, they had to endure extra time before collecting. The match ended 12-12 in normal time before a Brisbane try broke the deadlock to give the Bronco's a win, and that was welcome relief for two punters who each plonked $10,000 on Brisbane to win. A bet of $8000 for the North Queensland Cowboys to make the final 8 at $2.75 was taken prior to the round starting, and it certainly looks the goods following the 34-10 victory by the Cowboys over St George Illawarra. The Cowboys were very well backed in the match as well, led up by bets of $10,000 with 6½ points start, and a 'win' bet of $8000 at $2.60. Although beaten, St George Illawara continue to be backed to win the title, with another $3000 bet arriving on Monday as soon as betting opened at $11. On Sunday, all three outsiders (all playing at home) were backed, with one, Manly, recording a big 36-22 point win over Canberra. Manly came in from $2.50 to $2.30, Souths were $2.75 into $2.30, and the Storm were $2.60 into $2.40. The handicaps for all three were also heavily supported, with the biggest bet of the day being $30,000 for the Roosters at -5½ ($1.90) which was placed by a Sydney client. The win by Manly has seen them drift to $6 in wooden spoon betting, with Souths back into $2 ahead of New Zealand at $2.25. Parramatta are still a chance to finish at the bottom of the table, and one Sydney client has placed $2000 on the Eels to finish at the tail of the field at $21. Scott Hill is a doubtful starter for Melbourne on Friday night, and that has seen a good deal of money for St George Illawarra. We would have thought by now that punters would be getting sick and tired of the Dragons as they continually get beaten when favourites, but they have come at us again, led by bets of $8000 at $1.60 and $6500 conceding 4½ points. The one advantage they do have is Melbourne's woeful 'away' record, two wins from their last nine starts away. Newcastle and Canberra might well be playing for a spot in the final 8 when they do battle on Saturday night. The Knights are fav's at $1.53, and that is where punters are pinning their faith. The Raiders have been impossible to lay in this match, but that is normal for sides travelling to Newcastle. Souths have a great recent record against Wests, and will be looking to get out of 'wooden spoon territory' on Sunday, but punters think that the Rabbitoh's are in trouble. Apart from an early bet of $2500 for Souths with 8½ points start, all support has been for the Tigers, who look certain to start less than the $1.37. Wests have also been coupled up in $20,000 worth of trebles with the other two favourites due to play on Sunday, the Bulldogs (against North Qld) and the Roosters, who line-up against Cronulla. Brett Kimmorley has been named to play for the Sharks, but the money coming for the Roosters would suggest that punters think his comeback will be at least another week. ELECTIONS Everyone seems to have an opinion on who will lead the USA after the November election, and that is making it a terrific betting contest for us. Looking through our betting ledger, we have taken bets on the US election from over 20 countries, which is really quite odd on an election, but naturally the profile of the US, and George Bush, are the reasons for that. The good thing from our point of view is that we are seeing money for both George Bush and John Kerry, and it looks like continuing. While betting on the Australian election is naturally a lot bigger, there has already been over $100,000 bet on the American election, half of that coming in the past three weeks, and it has been split between the two candidates. For the moment, John Kerry is the favourite at $1.80, attracting recent bets of $5000 and $3000 (that one coming from Australia), while a new account holder from Montreal has placed $7000 on Bush this week at $1.90. GOLF They say that backing a winner on a golf event is like trying to find a needle in a haystack, but punters didn't have too much trouble finding needles in our haystack last weekend! The two main events for the weekend, the Buick Open and the Scandinavian Masters, saw both winners land good sized bets. Vijay Singh won the Buick, and in doing so landed one Sydney punter a windfall after he backed the Fijian to win $100,000 in two separate bets at $9. In the Scandinavian Masters, Luke Donald landed two nice bets of $600 to win at $34, and also another of $250 each way at the same quote, so he was also a loser for us. This week, 'The International' will be decided at Castle Rock, and the modified stableford points system used for this event makes it all the more interesting, but that hasn't meant a decrease in business. The person who backed Singh last week has reinvested some of his winnings this week, with his main 'go' being $15,000 on defending champion Davis Love at $11, at the same time having a $4000 'saver' on Stewart Cink at $21. Others to attract support have been Charles Howell ($4000 at $26), John Rollins ($1500 at $67) and Rory Sabbatini ($1000 each way at $67). Big hitting Ernie Els is favourite at $5, and looks extremely hard to beat. Like Love, Els is a previous winner having won with 48 points back in 2000. The Dutch (or KLM) Open will also be decided this week, and Englishman Ian Poulter is our $8 favourite ahead of David Howell ($11). Neither has met with much support, but several players have been backed in individual bets to win $20,000, including Gary Evans ($26). David Lynn ($34) and Aussie Richard Green ($67). Martin Lafaeber is defending champion and is rated a $34 chance, but he is another whom punters are yet to warm to. ENTERTAINMENT The highly successful Australian Idol is now in it's second season, and even though we only caught a glimpse of most of the artists on the first show, there already appears a possible 'standout' in Chanel Cole from Bega. The producers of the show must agree as we did see plenty of her, and she has been installed as our $4 favourite. Things will begin to become a lot clearer after this weekend when we get to have a look at all contestants displaying their talents, but this Idol looks certain to surpass the first version from a betting perspective. Already we have taken bets for 21 of the singers, with close to $4000 bet in the first week. When talking about world champions who have made an event 'their own', the names Lance Armstrong, Michael Schumacher and Ian Thorpe spring to mind, but Leo Pusa will be in action this weekend to attempt to win an unprecedented third world sauna sitting championship. Pusa is our $1.60 favourite to win the sauna sit off, and his legion of Finnish fans have been prepared to take the short odds. There is also plenty of interest in the winning time, with most bets being on 'over' 15 minutes. Pusa lasted 16mins and 15secs last year, but won in 2002 with a time of 12mins 10secs. Finland's Annikki Peltonen ($1.80) and Natallia Tryfanava ($1.90) of Belarus look set to fight out the women’s championship, just as they did last year when the Belarussian was victorious. THE GAMES Well, nearly every gold medal market is available on the Centrebet site with only a handful to come after verification of team line-ups. It has been a very hectic time in the Centrebet office as we compiled prices for every event, and as from next Tuesday, betting will start to become available on individual matches of team events. The soccer gets off to an early start with the first round of matches due to be played on Wednesday. Next week, we will have an in depth look at what the punters have done on the main events, and also perhaps a tip or two from our in house experts. Until next week, good punting. For further information contact Gerard Daffy at Centrebet on 08 89555800 or centrebet@centrebet.com.
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