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Aussie
Rules
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Centrebet Capers
AUSTRALIAN RULES Aussie rules punters endured their blackest ever weekend last week when no less than four teams under $1.33 fell over throwing premiership and final eight betting into disarray. Collingwood's 33 point win over Fremantle could have been bigger except for inaccurate kicking, and that win by the Magpies on Friday night set the scene for the weekend. Fremantle went in as raging $1.18 chances, carry many big bets including $12,000 to win at $1.18, three $10,000 bets conceding 32 and 33 points start, a $20,000 wager on Freo leading at half time and full time ($1.33), as well as three $20,000 multiples all starting with Fremantle. Even at the first break when Collingwood held a handy lead, we took another bet of $10,000 for the Dockers at $1.45, so this match ended up being one of our best ever AFL results. Early in the first quarter, St Kilda looked like they were going to record a big win over Adelaide in Tasmania, but to the Crows' credit, and much to the chagrin of punters, the Adelaide side didn't lose much territory for the rest of the game, and the winning margin of 23 points to St Kilda was well inside the handicap of 32½. That particular option was popular with punters, including one bet of $15,000 on the minus. The heavens opened in the Essendon v Carlton game, but that didn't mean that the Gods were smiling upon favourite supporters when Carlton put paid to Essendon by 17 points. The Bombers were $1.18, but the biggest bet at the win price was only $9000. The -29½ points was taken by a wager of $10,000 and three bets of $5000, and of course Essendon were coupled up in all multis for the day after Fremantle were beaten the night before. The loss by Essendon has put huge pressure on them as they are now in a dangerous position as far as making the finals is concerned. Some punters saw a trend emerging, and on Saturday night, there was a lot of smart money for the Kangaroos to beat Sydney. We took a bet of $10,000 for the Roos to win at $3.50, as well as $10,000 bets for them with 23½, 21½ and 20½ points start. There was money for the Swans as they drifted out, but the memorable win by the Kangaroos ended up costing us a little. By the time Sunday came around, it was obvious that many punters had put their cue in the rack. It was the quietest Sunday's trading we have ever had on the AFL, with the only interest centred on the Brisbane game, which saw another upset. The Lions were without a forward line with both Lynch and Brown unavailable, so we were pretty keen to get something out of them, taking $20,000 at $1.15, and bets of $20,000 and $8000 conceding 34 points start. Similarly to the Freo v Collingwood game, Brisbane struggled in the first half, but many thought that they would bounce back, including one who had $12,000 on the Lions at half time at $1.65. Poor kicking by the West Coast kept the Lions in the game, but the Eagles ended up winning by 14 points to keep their finals hopes alive. Collingwood are a remote chance to make the eight, and nothing would give them more satisfaction than beating Essendon on Friday night to possibly put an end to Essendon's finals hopes. All will hinge on the availability of Matthew Lloyd, and we have priced the game thinking he won't play. The opening $1.70 for Essendon has been taken by two $5000 bets, and now punters are taking the $1.67. Melbourne have injury concerns, and $1.48 doesn't appear too far over the odds in their match against the Swans, but punters disagree. We have taken a handful of early bets around the $2000 mark for Melbourne, and as yet we haven't seen any money for Sydney. Adelaide are another side who are having trouble fielding a fit side, and we are happy to take them on this week. The $1.42 has been popular through multis, and we have also taken two early bets totaling $9500 for the Crows to beat a handicap of 18½ points start. The Kangaroos appear to be overpriced around the country, so we have been laying St Kilda in that match at $1.35, as well as taking a bet of $10,000 for the Saints at -23½ points. They play well at Telstra Dome, but so do the Roos, and they will have derived a lot of confidence from last week's win over the Swans. The premiership battle has opened up after last week, with Brisbane remaining favourites, but easing to $2.30. Port have had their odds slashed form $5.50 to $4, and we have taken nearly $7000 in bets for them this week. The results have fallen in their favour now, but they cannot afford a slip up. Geelong have attracted two bets of $2000 this week at $10, and we have also taken nearly $1500 in bets for the Eagles at $67. It's amazing, this time last week the Eagles were virtually no hope of making the finals, and were $501 to win it, now all of a sudden they are back with a vengeance! RUGBY UNION Although the Wallabies failed to win back the Bledisloe Cup when they were downed 16-7 by the All Blacks in Wellington, their courageous 23-18 victory at Stadium Australia, Sydney, has certainly breathed new life into this years Tri Nations trophy. On the back of a sole try from Lote Tuqiri the Wallabies held out a desperate All Black unit, and a wave of money, as punters queued to take the $1.70 on offer. Our opening wager was $10,000 on the All Blacks at $1.70 but constant demand for the Wallabies at $2.15 meant that betting remained brisk. Even consecutive wagers by a client from the UK of $15,000 and $20,000 on the All Blacks conceding 2½ points did not lead to a price change, although it must be said the result went Centrebet's way. Betting to take the Tri Nations trophy has evened up again as the All Blacks hold favourtism at $2.15 from the Wallabies at $2.50 and the Springboks at $5. Oddly similar betting as to what opened some ten weeks ago. This weeks test at Ellis Park will go a long way in determining who may win an intriguing Tri Nations series. The All Blacks are again favourite at $1.80 and conceding 1½ points however all money has been for the home side with our opening wager $10,000 on the Springboks at $2.05 and have now firmed into $2. With Daniel Carter out injured and Carlos Spencer on the outer with a lack of form, the stage is set for Andrew Mehrtens to re-establish his career and perhaps become an unlikely hero. Whatever the result the Tri Nations is alive and well, the trophy unlikely to be known until the completion of the final game. RUGBY LEAGUE Punters may have been taking a battering over the last couple of weeks on rugby league however they struck with a vengeance last week when six of the seven favourites won, with all sic covering the spread. Friday night’s game between top four aspirants St George and Melbourne got punters off to a great start when the Dragons were backed from $1.60 into $1.48 and taken, on the back of several $10,000 wagers, while the start firmed from 4½ into 6½ by kick off with little money for the Storm. Perhaps our comment from last week that the Storm have a woeful away record, having won two of their last nine games on the road, put punters off the scent. The Saturday games saw the Broncos, Knights and Panthers backed to the exclusion of their opponents and in doing so set up a possible wipe out if the Sunday favourites were successful, particularly with punters bankers competing , the Roosters and Bulldogs. While there was early money for the Warriors, our first wager being $5,000 at $2.70, punters were keen to take the $1.50 on offer and commence most of their weekend multis through them. The Knights were also well supported through multis with the word Robertson was out and big Matty Parsons was returning while the snow in for the round was the Panthers backed from $1.28 into $1.18 with the points firming from 11½ into 14½ , our closing bet $15,000 on the Panthers at 14½ start. All of the results had led to a nightmare of a Sunday, and there is no doubt that had the Roosters won, let alone cover, then Centrebet would have been left with our worst multi payout on a round of NRL for several years. The fact the Sharks came to play and cause one of the biggest upsets of the year was not lost on Centrebet. Moreover the result also turned Premiership betting on its head, as for the first time for this year the Roosters are no longer favourite. The Bulldogs now head the betting at $2.85 from the Roosters $3.25, the Broncos $6.25, St George $7.50 and the Panthers still value at $9. On form these five teams appear to be the only legitimate chances with a further rush for the bottom two positions in the eight, the Sharks and Cowboys with the inside running there. This weekends round of matches commences with another blockbuster as the Roosters host the Panthers at Aussie Stadium. The Roosters are favourites at $1.55 and conceding 5½ points while the Panthers may be some value after a return to form last week, demolishing Manly 72-12. The Sharks and Eels is another interesting game with rumours Kimmorley will not play, however the Sharks have too much to play for. The Cowboys and Dragons should be too strong for the Rabbitohs and Warriors respectively while the Sunday games perhaps present the most interesting match-ups. Early money for the Raiders at $1.95 sees them firm into $1.90 with the Storm also $1.90, the Broncos at home to the Premiership favourites the Bulldogs has punters guessing , with the betting $2.15 and $1.70 while early money for Manly at $2.60 and receiving 6½ points at home to the Knights suggest an upset in the making. The punters may have held the edge last week but this weekends matches suggest picking the winner may prove a more difficult assignment. GOLF Last week we said that trying to back a winner in a golf event is like trying to find a needle in a haystack. Well, our haystack must be very transparent as punters were again successful in finding the winners of both events, the International and KLM Dutch Open. Australian Rod Pampling won his first event on the PGA tour in capturing The International, a modified stableford scoring event, held at Castle Pines, Colorado. It was Pampling's second ever victory, the first being an Australasian tour event back in 1999, the same year he led the British Open after the first round only to miss the cut. Well supported players such as Davis Love and Stewart Cink all had opportunities to win the event however it was the Australian, $151 outsider, who was able to take advantage of the situation producing a spectacular late eagle to claim victory. Pampling was equal leader with Chris Di Marco entering the final round and he was not without supporters carrying several wagers at $5.50, the largest being $1000 from a Sydney client, while Di Marco, $3.75, continued with his disappointing third round to finish in a tie for sixth, seven points from the winner. Perhaps the victory may inspire the Australian to bigger things which at the end of the day was a just reward for an improved and consistent season which has seen him make seven top 25’s from 18 events. On the European Tour punters were again on the mark when David Lynn captured his maiden European Tour victory with a three shot victory over Paul McGinley and Australian Richard Green. Both Lynn and Green had been backed to win over $20,000 from a local client who was never under pressure as Green led by three shots leading into the final day, then only to be overhauled by the Englishman, which prevented Australia from securing a win on both continents. Focus switches back to the States this week for the years final Major, the PGA Championship held for the first time at Whistling Straits, Wisconsin. This course was designed by Pete Dye on the shores of Lake Michigan and was based on the classical Irish links courses which is a first for a PGA tour major. The course is some 7,500 yards in length, has over 1,000 bunkers and as it sits on the shores of Lake Michigan is sure to provide its share of links style breezes. Although much is unknown about this course it still has not deterred punters from getting involved with Ernie Els, $7.50, Vijay Singh, $12, Davis Love, $23, and Stewart Cink, $67, all backed to win in excess of $200,000 while Tiger Woods, favourite at $6.75 has once again earned the respect of punters with several wagers in excess of $1000. This promises to be another exciting PGA Championship which has yielded 13 first time major winners over the last 16 years and may go a long way in deciding both this year’s tour money leader and the world's number one. THE GAMES Betting has been opened now for a little over a week, and as expected, there are a few bookies around who had the utmost confidence in our markets to use them. A couple had the audacity to 'top dress' (go overs) all prices, but it has been proven in the past that copying sometimes can be dangerous if you don't know the origins of the market. One outfit even copied the wrong pairing that we had inadvertently put up in the women's beach volleyball. It wouldn't have been obvious apart from the fact that it was the favourites! Medal Tallies - From an Australian point of view, the injury suffered by Jana Pittman should have made the 'over 12½ gold' unattractive, but one of our Queensland clients doesn't think that is the case. He had placed $14,000 on the 'over' at $2, then came back and had the same bet again on Monday of this week. Australia won 16 gold medals in Sydney, this time we think they will win 12 at best. We have interest in all country medal tallies, with the largest bet being $USD 30,000 on the USA winning most gold for the games. While we all hope and pray that there will be no intervention from terrorists, unfortunately we have had to look at the rules of medal betting and have added a rule that all scheduled events must be completed, unless of course the total has already been surpassed. Athletics - The title of 'fastest man on the planet' awaits the winner of the men's 100 metres, and that title is tipped to go to Jamaica's Asafa Powell, currently the $1.90 favourite. Powell was longer odds two weeks ago, but from his performances in London and Jamaica recently (9:91 into a headwind each time) would be enough to win gold. We haven't layed Powell yet, looking for money for the others. In the Sydney Olympics, Greek sprinter Konstandinos Kederis gave us one of our best results when he blew away a quality field to win the 200m. Nobody rated him a chance beforehand, and he wasn't heard of after Sydney, but has emerged as the one to beat again. We posted up Kederis at $3.50, but we were deluged by money from new Greek account holders who backed him to win close to $40,000, and we continue to lay him at $3. Kederis is doubtful to start in the 100m, so that gives him an advantage over his main rivals, and the only other runner backed so far has been American Shawn Crawford at $2.70. The biggest betting athletics event so far is the men's 1500m, which looks a match race between Morocco’s Hichem El Guerrouj ($2) and Kenyan Bernard Lagat ($2.20). We had already taken a series on El Guerrouj prior to last weekend's Golden League, but on that occasion, Lagat went past El Guerrouj like he was nailed to the ground. We cut Lagat's price to $2.20, and have seen nearly $4000 this week at that quote. 50 km is a long way to walk, and punters are predicting that Poland's Robert Korzeniowski will win the long walk. Once again it was patriotic money (three €2000 bets from Poland) that saw the price cut from $2.20 into $2, and that support has continued. Swedish punters have also got behind Stefan Holm's attempt to win gold in the high jump. He has been easy to sell at $2.25, and so he should be having won 20 odd Grand Prix events in a row, but South African Jaques Freitag ($3.25) returned from an operation with a jump of 2.34m last month, and a repeat of that would see him hard to beat. In the women's athletics, all the talk in Australia has been of Jana Pittman, who prior to injury had been a heavily backed $2.70 fav to win the 400m hurdles. Jana's lead up form hadn't been that good, and surprisingly most of the money bet, which had seen her price tumble from $5 into $2.70, had come from a group of astute Swedish punters. Pittman is still in the betting at $5.50 after an operation on Monday, but we have taken nearly $4000 since then for American Sheena Johnson at $2.10. Maria Mutola is a big risk in the women's 800m according to our analyst, and his head is on the chopping block after an improved performance by Mutola last weekend. This time, the money has come from three Austrian clients who have invested close to €8000 between them on Mutola at $2. She had been struggling with injury early in the year, and that has prompted interest in some of the others, including England's Kelly Holmes ($11) who has been backed to take out nearly $20,000. Just like Kederis in the men's 200m, our new Greek clients have jumped in and backed Katerina Thanou ($7 - $5) in the women's 100m sprint. Thanou has been backed to win €20,000, but others have had support as well including Christine Arron (£2000 at $3.50) and Bulgaria's Ivet Lalova ($5). There is still some doubt as to whether or not American Tori Edwards can compete due to a doping scandal, and her spot could be taken by either Gail Devers or Marion Jones. Baseball - The Cubans have firmed drastically to win gold from $1.80 into $1.65, but the money hasn't been from that part of the world, it has come from Europe! Japan have eased to $2.30, ahead of Australia at $12. The Aussies have a few Major League players in their side, and have been backed to win $15,000. Canoe/Kayak - Out of all the canoe/kayak events we have opened, one in particular, the men's flatwater K2-1000m, has had more wagered on it than all of the others added together. The Norwegian pairing had easily the quickest qualifying time (3:11:52), and as soon as we opened them up at $2.10, the money rolled in. The bigger bets included 60,000 NOK ($AUD 12,000) and 25,000 NOK. A story appeared in a Sydney newspaper about the chances of Australia, the rated $41, and that was backed to win $50,000 in a frenzy of activity that saw the price cut to $11. Just for good measure, Sweden, who qualified 3 seconds slower than Norway, were backed to win nearly $20,000 at $4, and this money also came from Norway. This would be a good time for New Zealand ($5.50) to win one of their gold medals! Rowing - New Zealand have got a few chances to win gold, but none better than Caroline and Georgina Evers-Swindler in the women's double sculls. The sisters are ranked number one in the world after having won the World Championships in Milano last year, and our Kiwi clients have shown by their loyalty and believe they can be victorious in Athens. The opening $2 was snapped up quickly, and has been backed all the way down to $1.50, with the biggest bet of $17,000 coming from Auckland at $1.60. Tennis - Athens will be providing a hard court surface, and we might see a repeat of the Wimbledon final if results go according to the betting. Roger Federer is the $2.10 fav ahead of Andy Roddick at $3.20. Roddick was beaten by Andre Agassi in a semi final of the Cincinnati Masters last week, but will be coming to the hot and humid conditions in Greece 'match fit’, something that must be seen as a doubt when looking at Federer's chances. Outside of that duo who dominate betting, there has been money for Tommy Haas ($15) and Carlos Moya ($16), and also for Mark Philippoussis ($81), who is desperately trying to recapture some form. The Womens tennis field is finally settled after talks of a boycott and Capriati and Serena Williams' non-attendance due to injury. Amelie Mauresmo is in very good form, winning last week's event in Montreal and heads the betting as a $3.75 favourite. Equal second favourites are Anastasia Myskina and Justine Henin-Hardenne at a qoute of $4.50. Henin-Hardenne is returning from illness and might find the going a bit tough. Last week's other winner, Alicia Molik, who was victorious at Stockholm, is an outside chance of a medal if she receives a favourable draw and is value at a quote of $34. Gymnastics - The men's rings and horizontal bar have been the two events most sought after in the men's gymnastics. The men's rings looks a dead set match between Dimosthenis Tampakos (Greece) and Bulgaria's Jordan Jovtchev. Both are quoted at $2, with Greek fans eager to be on Tampakos, including two bets of €2000, and perusing the form since the last Olympics when they won silver and bronze, this duo have won practically everything between them. The duo tied the 2003 World Champs, so the market seems justified. In the men's horizontal, our new Greek clients have been out in force backing Vlasios Maras. We have taken several bets totaling nearly €3500 for Varas at $3, but while he was the World Champion in 2001 and 2002, there are at least another half dozen chances. The main danger is Japan's Takehiro Kashima ($5), who is the current World Champ. Table Tennis - There have been several players backed to win the men's table tennis gold, but we are happy to stick with our opening favourite, Liquin Wang. China have the first three in the betting, but Wang has recently returned to the form that saw him win the world title back in 2001. The women's gold looks a match between two Chinese players in Nan Wang ($1.70) and Yinning Zhang ($2). All bets taken so far have been for Wang who won gold in Sydney, but many believe that Zhang has the game to beat her, if she overcomes her nerves. Softball - Backing the USA to win gold in Athens might appear to be easy money, but our form analyst tends to think it might not be as simple as many think. We have taken two good bets of $USD 5000 and $USD 2000 from the U.S for their side to win at $1.20, but although they have retained 6 players from their gold medal winning side in Sydney, they were beaten by Japan, Australia and China in consecutive preliminaries before Sydney. There has also been a change to the rules with the pitching mound now 43 feet (previously 40 feet) away from the home plate. That may well even things up a bit. Handball - Handball will be one of the more popular sports as far as betting goes, and as with most 'team' events, there will be betting on each and every game. The battle for gold in the men's is very open, with France favourites at $3.45, and do have 3 players returning to the squad who played in, and won, the World Championships. The only problem with France is that they have never been placed higher than sixth in the Olympics. Russia are second picks at $3.75, ahead of the well backed Germany ($4). The Germans have injury worries, but have been backed to win nearly $15,000, and with most of that money coming from Germany, perhaps those injury concerns have gone. Korea are $3 favourites to win the women's gold following an unlucky third in the World Championships last year (they defeated eventual winners France during the tournament). Denmark have won at the last two Olympics, but since Sydney they have disappointed. We posted up a lucrative $5.50, but even the Danes have kept away from that, so it looks like we all agree that they will struggle. Synchronised Swimming - In a sport traditionally dominated by the USA and Canada, Russia are favoured to take out Gold in the teams event, and repeat their efforts at the Sydney games. Since winning the first of eight European Championships in 1991 when they were still the Soviet Union, they have dominated synchronised swimming internationally since 1998, winning three World Championships and Gold in Sydney. Japan are their only danger, having been runners-up on a number of occasions to the Russians in recent years. We have already taken a bet of $3000 for Russia to win this event at $1.20, so while the sport has it's critics, there is at least one person out there who has an interest! The Duet Gold is a similar story to the team events, with the Russian pairing of Anastasia Davydova and Anastasia Ermakova heading to Athens as favorites to win Gold, having won the World Champs in 2003 and runner up in 2001. The pairing that beat them in 2001, Miya Tachibana and Miho Takeda of Japan, are seasoned campaigners, having taken silver at the World Champs in 1998 and 2003, and Silver in Sydney. Miya was also a member of a pairing which won silver at the 94 World Champs. The Russians are a similar quote to win this ($1.20), but as yet there have been no takers. Until next week, good punting. For further information contact Gerard Daffy at Centrebet on 08 89555800 or centrebet@centrebet.com.
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