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Aussie
Rules
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Centrebet Capers
THE GAMES We are nearly at the half way mark of the games in Athens, and it has proven to be every bit as busy as we thought it would be. It was always going to be a big task to cover all events, but it has all been worthwhile as we hold a lead over the punters at the half way mark? For the past week the focus has been on the pool, and without a doubt, the big event was the men’s 200m freestyle final which went to Ian Thorpe. Close to $250,000 was bet on the final, but incredible, over half was wagered on Pieter Van Den Hoogenband who came into $2.40 after opening at $3.25 when the final field was known. The largest of those bets was $20,000 from a New Zealander, who was obviously taking advantage of the fact that the New Zealand TAB were only allowed to bet on a handful of sports, swimming not being one of them. Thorpe had solid support, including three $10,000 bets, but did drift from $1.50 out to $1.75 at the start. Michael Phelps also blew in the betting, eventually starting at $7.50, but at that quote we did take two bets of $USD 2000 from new account holders from the USA. It would be fair to say that Australia got two unexpected gold medals in the women’s road race, and also in the women’s trap in the shooting. Sarah Carrigan went in to the women’s road race as a $34 chance, and the only bet taken on her was $10 from a punter who lives near Gunnedah where Sara comes from. Suzanne Balogh's win in the trap shooting was a fairytale finish for someone who was told five years ago that she was too old, and not good enough, to compete at the highest level! Suzanne was a $51 chance, and also only attracted one bet, that being 50 NOK ($ AUD 10) from a Norwegian fan. This Saturday, the New Zealand sisters Caroline and Georgina Evers- Swindler are $1.35 to relieve us of a hefty amount in the women’s double sculls. This pair have hero status in New Zealand, and that was reflected in the betting when they were backed from $2 into $1.50 before qualifying quickest. The biggest bet was placed by a new client from Auckland who placed $35,000 on the girls at $1.60. The Kiwi's have a chance to get amongst the medals in other rowing races, as does Australia. The men’s eight is the main betting event, with the Aussies now $4 after opening at $17. They have been backed to win over $100,000, and only this morning a bet of $3000 was placed on them at $4. Canada were warm $1.60 fav's before the semi's, and there was one large bet of $USD 14,000 taken at that quote, but they have eased out to $2.30 (just ahead of the USA at $2.60). The big news of the week was the loss by the USA to Puerto Rico in the men’s basketball. In our wrap a couple of weeks ago, we did point out that we thought the Americans were a risk to win gold. Not for a single moment did we think the the Dream Team would be beaten by Puerto Rico, but one Aussie punter thought that the $1.01 was picking up easy money. He placed $60,000 on the USA to 'win' $600, only to see them beaten by 19 points! The athletics get under way over the next couple of days, and they have been shrouded in controversy, mainly attributed to the Greek duo of Kenderis and Thanou. Both had been backed to win over $30,000 in their respective sprints, and while those punters unfortunately lose their money, there are several who have backed the favourites Crawford (men’s 100m) and Arron (women’s 100m) at inflated odds. Jana Pittman has made a miraculous recovery from knee surgery, and is well back in the betting to win the women’s 400m hurdles. Jana blew from $2.70 to $6 after the injury that looked certain to end her games, but the success of the operation has seen money come for her. She is back into $4 after we took a bet of 10,000 NOK ($AUD 2000) late last week at the $6. It certainly will be one of the great sporting moments of all time if she can win the final, but to make it would even be a bonus for the popular Aussie. AUSTRALIAN RULES After a bleak week the previous round of AFL, punters regrouped and struck back with a vengeance last weekend. Seven of the eight favourites won, with six of those covering the spread, but the bad weather did bring about some support for outsiders. Friday night saw Essendon account for Collingwood, but the bulk of the bigger money saw Collingwood come in from $2.10 to start at $2, with the biggest bet there being $10,000 for the Magpies with 10½ points start. On Saturday, the weather was something you would expect to see at the South Pole, and that saw the handicaps of the two 'outside' games move significantly. Geelong played Fremantle in atrocious conditions, and the Dockers handicap moved from +29½ into 22½, with bets of $20,000 taken at 28½ and $10,000 at 24½. There was only nine points in it at half time, but Fremantle only scored 5 behinds in the second half to be thrashed by 50 points. Last week we took a bet of $15,000 for Fremantle to make the final 8 at $1.65, but that has now moved out to $2.10, after being as short as $1.03 a month ago. In the other match, when it began to rain, we were pretty keen to get something out of Brisbane conceding the start, but although it moved a full goal into -32½, it was hard to sell. Sydney are turning into a bit of a 'bogey' side for us as we lost on their match again, even though they were the outsiders against Melbourne. There was money for the Swans to win at $2.60, and also a bet of $15,000 with 15½ points start, and to top it off we got nearly $35,000 out of them at half time at $1.50. Melbourne, second fav's to win the premiership 3 weeks ago, have all of a sudden started a rapid descent down the ladder, and the betting, and now find themselves 'unwanted' at $13. The Swans are solid in betting, and last Friday we took a bet of $2000 for them to win the flag at $41. The four remaining games all went to the fav's, with all four covering their respective handicaps. Port Adelaide landed a bet of $25,000 (1.90) conceding 43 points to the Bulldogs, Adelaide had bets of $15,000 to win (1.45) and the same bet conceding 19 points start placed on them, while the West Coast had bets of $8500 and $6000 placed on them to concede 37 points start. All covered the handicaps easily. This week, injuries and form reversals have thrown up an interesting betting round. In the first four matches, all of the home sides are the outsiders, and all must rate a chance of winning. We have been keen to lay Port Adelaide without Warren Tredrea, but apart from the first bet of $3000, we haven't been able to get a decent bet out of Port to beat Collingwood. Carlton will probably be playing one of their last games at Optus Oval against Melbourne, who have a stack of injuries. The way the Melbourne forward line failed last week, we think Carlton can win, but once again, the fav's have been hard to get in. Early bets of $2500 and $2000 have gone on Melbourne at $1.47, but that is about the extent of it. Geelong are on fire, but the big question is how much did playing in the mud take out of them last week? Surely enough to rate Adelaide a show of rolling them this week, and the Cats are another fav we are very eager to take on. The game of the round will see St Kilda head to the Gabba to play Brisbane. The betting ($1.50 Brisbane, $2.60 St Kilda) looks about right, and an argument could be put up for both. It's a big game for both, as a top two berth awaits the winner. A lot is riding on the derby in the west. Apart from the bet last week for Freo to make the final 8, there are bets of $50,000 ($1.90) and $15,000 ($1.85) that were placed early in the season for the Dockers to make the finals. West Coast have come form being $501 to win the title three weeks ago, to being $1.55 in this game. We have also taken bets for the Eagles to win the flag at $51 for a payout of $60,000 this week, but they are still a big winner. Brisbane remain fav's at $2.30, but all is dependant on the result of their match against St Kilda. A big win to either will see significant changes to the market. RUGBY LEAGUE The rot has well and truly set in for league punters with last weekend’s results producing only three favourites that covered the handicap. One of those that did salute was Roosters in the Friday night match against Penrith. The betting was heavily weighted towards the Roosters, who moved from $1.45 into $1.40, and those who conceded the six points start had plenty to spare when the Roosters won 44-12, and even that score was flattering to Penrith! The Roosters are back into $3 second fav's to win the title, with Penrith back out to $12, and unwanted. The Sharks may have let a finals appearance disappear when they were thrashed by the enigmatic Parramatta. The Sharks went in as $1.33 shots, and were the banker in most multiples. A win would have seen them entrenched in the eight, now they look gone. The Cowboys are currently one of the form sides of the competition, and look set for their first finals series. Only last week another bet of $10,000 came for the Cowboys to make the eight at $2, as well as an ambitious bet of $1000 at $61 to win the comp. The Cowboys defeated Souths as the betting suggested ($1.12), and had they have got off to the start of the season the way we thought they would, they would now have been firmly entrenched in a top four position. Melbourne put aside their ordinary away form with a comprehensive 36-18 over Canberra, thus putting pressure on the Raiders to make the finals. Melbourne had plenty of injuries, and we were more than happy to take bets of $20,000 and $12,000 for them to win at $2, in what was a poor betting game. The Bulldogs confirmed their $2.75 tag to win the title by dishing out a 46-18 flogging to Brisbane. The late money was for the winning side at $1.75, and has raised some serious questions on whether or not Brisbane ($7) are a legitimate contender. This week, an undermanned Brisbane can give Wests a ticket into the finals, or that is what we think at least. We have taken on Brisbane, with 'win' bets of $10,000 and $5000 at $1.50, and there is any amount of money for them conceding 6 points start. Another favourite that could go over is Parramatta, with punters jumping into New Zealand as soon as betting opened. Three bets of $2000 were placed on the Warriors to win at $3, as well as two $5000 wagers for them with 8½ points start, but none of the bets came from our New Zealand punters. The Roosters travel to Canberra, and there has been a confident push for the Sydney side. Early bets of $8000 and $5000 forced the Roosters line into -12½ after it opened at -11½, and that new line is also being taken. The Bulldogs are also on the road this week, travelling to Melbourne, where all the early support has been for the Bulldogs, led up by a bet of $14,000 at $1.43. As we said, the Bulldogs and Roosters head the betting to win the title, but this week we have taken a bet of $7500 for St George Illawarra at $7.50, who are the only other side outside the two favourites that punters want a piece of. GOLF For the third week in a row punters were on the mark when Vijay Singh captured his second PGA Championship title on the back of some sizeable wagers. Going into the final round with a one shot lead over American Justin Leonard not even a disastrous closing round four over par 76 could fraught his attempt at a third major title, as he , Leonard and Chris DiMarco all finished the 72 holes at eight under par, 280. Singh may have had a little help from his co play-off competitors though as DiMarco left a birdie putt just millimetres short on the final hole and then Leonard managed to bogey it leaving all three players at eight under. With Singh backed to win over $200,000 in one bet alone those errors were to prove costly to Centrebet but a windfall for punters as Singh then played three of the finest play-off holes in the history of the PGA Championship to emerge a one shot victor. And lets not take anything away from Leonard, who is proving a fine exponent of the links style game and DiMarco whose final round in tough conditions was worthy of a better result ; their efforts in the play-off certainly did not contribute to Singhs victory. We head to Firestone CC in Ohio this week for a WGC event, the NEC Invitational. Defending Champion is Darren Clarke at $29 and has been in solid form of recent weeks while favourite again is Tiger Woods at $7.50 ahead of last weeks winner Vijay Singh at $8.50, Ernie Els at $8.50 and Phil Mickelson at $9. This promises to be a high quality event which has in recent times provided its share of results with players finding it difficult to 'come up' after the PGA Championship. Already Els and Singh have been backed again to win in excess of $100,000 while Australians Adam Scott, $34 and Robert Allenby, $41 have been backed to win similar amounts as a result of their strong showings at last weeks PGA. Justin Leonard has been friendless in the betting as we return to a typical PGA course at Firestone while Woods has lost any admirers after struggling to make the cut last week. This event is set up for Tiger, a multiple winner here and with his pride wounded he is bound to be stalking coming to the final round. ELECTIONS The 'boat people' were an issue that turned the last Federal Election on its head, and the debate on what the Howard Govt did or didn't know at the time is looking like it will have an affect on the election as well. The Coalition had been $1.45 for the past three weeks, and in that time we had taken another $25,000 for them. This week however, the issue of whether or not the Howard Govt knew the truth about the 'children overboard' has seen nearly $8000 come for Labor, so they are back into $2.40. While it is pretty obvious why we would not want to bet on when an election would be held, we would have made a killing had we got involved on this one. There were dozens and dozens of phone calls over the past month from punters wanting to back Sept 18 as the day, but that isn't going to be the day. Whenever it is, it will be a massive betting event as already nearly $300,000 has been wagered, and the election hasn't even been called! ENTERTAINMENT While there may be plenty of sport on the television at the moment, Australian Idol must have its share of viewers judging by the interest in our market. Chanel Cole and Courtney Murphy remain equal fav's at $5, with $1000 worth of bets being placed on Cole last week, and that was after she barely scraped into the next round. Opinions are divided as to whether Murphy has the looks to be an Australian Idol winner, but we have taken nearly $800 for him to win, so he has support out there in viewer land. Daniel Bell ($8) gave a polished display on Sunday, and has been best backed of the three finalists from that show. To prove how bizarre the voting and betting patterns have been, Ngaiire Joseph ($10) and Anthony Callea ($11), who will both be hoping to get back in through the 'judges choice' show, have been consistently backed over the past week. Until next week, good punting. For further information contact Gerard Daffy at Centrebet on 08 89555800 or centrebet@centrebet.com.
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