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Aussie
Rules
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Centrebet Capers
THE GAMES The Athens Games are nearly over, and what a two weeks it has been! After we were able to gain the upper hand in the never ending battle with punters, they have fought back courageously over the past few days to trim back our lead. The big betting event this week was the women’s 400m hurdles, which went to favourite Fani Halkia. The Greek girl was $21 before the first round, and one of our Norwegian regulars placed $200 at that time. After the first heat when she ran the quickest, we saw a swag of bets come for Halkia, mostly from Greece, with the largest of those being 3000 euro at $5. Those punters knew what they were doing as she broke the Games record to win the semi. The final was one of the biggest we have ever bet on, and some of those bets included 20,000 euro on the winner at $1.75, $8000 for second fav Yuliya Pechonkina at $2.75, and three $2000 bets for Jana Pittman at $6.50. We also put up a market on each medal that Jana Pittman could win, with loyal Aussies ploughing in to all three colours, but there was money from our overseas punters on 'no medal', including one of 30,000NOK ($6000) at $2.50. The men’s 800m final will be on tonight (Thurs), and we have a good betting duel on our hands. The bulk of public support has been for Kenyan Wilfried Bungei, with the largest of those bets being $USD 2000 at $2.75, but that support has been eclipsed by Danish clients wanting to be on the legendary Wilson Kipketer at the same price. There is also some international betting rivalry happening on the water tomorrow in the final of the men’s K2 1000m. The Norwegian pairing of Eric Veras Larsen and Nils Fjeldheim had been heavily supported at $2 before the first heat, but have eased to $2.25 following some exciting semi finals. The money from Norway is still pouring in for this pair, but it is also coming for Sweden ($2), Australia ($6) and New Zealand at $6.50. The Swedes were impressive in the heats, but it is a race where all four are being backed. The Australians were backed to win nearly $100,000 before it started, with early shoppers grabbing $41, while the Kiwi's have been backed to win $20,000 since the final betting went up. Next week we will have an overview of the whole games, the winners, the losers, and the hard luck stories, including a few of our own! AUSTRALIAN RULES Recent results, and the Athens Games, have had an affect on the betting turnover on the AFL, but those who did play last weekend didn't fare much better than previous weeks when five of the eight favourites won, with big results in the other three games. Port Adelaide produced Warren Tredrea on Friday night, and that saw Port come from $1.55 into $1.45. They landed plenty of decent sized winning bets, including one of $30,000 at $1.55. A comprehensive 37 point win, and another best afield performance by Tredrea has seen us slash his Brownlow Medal price to $4. If Tredrea was playing for a Victorian side, he would be half those odds again as he has been consistently in the best for Port Adelaide each week. It's not hard to work out why Carlton supporters want to continue to play at Optus Oval after they had an emphatic victory over Melbourne on Saturday. The Demons were solidly supported, including two bets of $15,000 at $1.40, and we also saw money for them at quarter time at $1.20, although they had been kicking with the wind in the first quarter. It has all turned to mud for Melbourne. Three weeks ago they were second fav's at $5.50 to win the flag, but now they have blown out to $26, and might get to bigger odds if key forward David Neitz's injury is long term. Everybody, including us, thought that the Bulldogs would get a flogging on Saturday night, but in one of their finest moments, they defeated the Kangaroos by five goals. The Doggies have a habit of causing upsets this time of the year, but they weren't given any consideration at $4.50. The Kangaroos were taken in most AFL multiples for the weekend, and there were also three $10,000 bets placed on them conceding 28 and 29 points start. We tried pretty hard to get something out of Essendon against Sydney on Saturday night, but instead we ended up laying Sydney. It was at a rock bottom $1.55 that we began to see money for the Swans, headed up by a bet of $14,000, and the Swans recorded an easy 20 point win. Sunday's big match between Brisbane and St Kilda saw some heavy betting, the bulk of it for Brisbane. The Lions were coupled up in a $40,000 double with the West Coast ($2.17), and were also backed from $1.50 into $1.42. The Saints came out of the blocks running and held a handy lead at quarter time. In our opinion, Brisbane were in trouble, and we took another $7000 fro them at $1.90, but they showed from that time on why they are deserving of the $1.90 quote to win the flag by dishing out a 45 point thumping to St Kilda. These two may meet again, in Brisbane, the first week of the finals, so it was an important win. Arch rivals Collingwood and Carlton do battle this Friday night, and very little separates the pair in betting. Money is coming for both sides with Collingwood slight fav's at $1.80. The rest of the games all look like 'blowouts' on paper, but we think there is some chance of an upset in Adelaide. The Crows will be desperate to finish the season on a high with a win in the 'Showdown' against Port Adelaide, and with Port possible only needing to win the game to finish top, we have been keen to take them on conceding 18 points start. Apart from two early bets of $2000 on that handicap, Port have been a little hard to lay. West Coast have already firmed from $1.35 into $1.25 after it was announced David Neitz would be out of the Melbourne side, and even that looks likely to disappear as well. Melbourne's form has been poor when the forward line struggles, so it is hard to see where the goals are going to come from. West Coast were 1000/1 to win the premiership eight weeks ago, but this week there has been a steady stream of bets for them at $26. Premiership doubles on the AFL and NRL are to the fore as well, with a large one taken this week. The bets were $70,000 at $5.70 for the Brisbane Lions to win coupled up with the Canterbury Bulldogs in the NRL. RUGBY LEAGUE Punters have also endured a shocking run on the NRL, and last weekend, although six of seven fav's won, only four of those were able to cover the handicaps. There is a stark difference in the way league punters attack a game as opposed to their AFL counterparts. The AFL is predominantly 'win' bets, and also a big emphasis on multiples, whereas the NRL betting is normally concentrated on the handicaps given. St George Illawara was the biggest mover for the weekend, with that handicap moving from -8½ out to -12½ on game day. Newcastle lost three forwards from the starting line-up, and then had a player sent off, so to only go down by two points to the well backed Dragons was a good performance. The Dragons have so often disappointed punters that it is hard to believe that they keep fronting up, and if they are to be a title threat, they need to find some consistency. Brisbane got away with the two points in an entertaining encounter against Wests, and although the Bronco's landed a $20,000 winning bet at $1.55, and another of $15,000 at $1.52, it was still a winning game as most money wagered was on Brisbane to beat a 5.5 point spread. An early push for New Zealand ($15,000 at 8½) was well astray when they were thrashed 48-18 by Parramatta. Unfortunately for those who were on the Warriors, Stacey Jones was a late withdrawal, and they are very ordinary without Jones. Amazingly, Parramatta can still mathematically make the finals, but have to come up against Penrith this week, and need other results to go their way as well. We were a little unlucky to lose $49,000 to one punter on the Melbourne Storm v Bulldogs game on Sunday. The client from Sydney placed $14,000 on Melbourne to lead at half and full time at $4.50. The score was locked on 6-6 for an eternity in the first half before Melbourne got a penalty to break the dead lock 8-6 right on half time. The Storm careered away in the second half to win 22-12. This week, punters think that the Bulldogs can get back on track with a big win over Newcastle. We can't get anything out of the Knights to either win ($5.10) or with 14½ points start, but the day betting opened, the Bulldogs attracted nearly $20,000 worth of bets as the first leg of league multiples. Penrith have been hard to sell against Parramatta on Saturday night, and if anything, more nets have been placed on Parramatta at $2.60. Like St George Illawarra, Penrith's form has been hot and cold, and for the second year in a row, nobody wants to be on them to be premiers ($10). Hopefully, history repeats itself! Cronulla, although coming off the bye, have to be a strong chance of beating Melbourne on Saturday night. Melbourne will be coming off a 'high' having beaten the Bulldogs, and their 'away' form hasn't been the best this season. Travelling favourites are normally a little hard to lay, and the Storm fall into the same category here with only $12,000 being placed on them in the first two days of betting at $1.67. A probable finals berth awaits the winner of the Tigers v Cowboys game on Sunday. Both have strong chances to be playing in September, but a win here would nearly confirm a spot in the playoffs. The Tigers had a hard game against Brisbane, and apart from last week, the form of the Cowboys has been outstanding. The Tigers won the first match 18-8 in Townsville, but North Qld have improved a great deal since then. While we have taken a bet of $5000 for Wests conceding 4½ points start, we have taken dozens of small bets for the Cowboys to win, all from the Townsville area. ELECTIONS It is lucky that Prime Minister John Howard didn't call a September 18 election as things have started to go wrong for him over the past two weeks. The 'children overboard' issue just won’t go away, and news polls this week have hinted that the PM's popularity may be waning. We took the precaution of switching betting off while Mark Latham had a stint in hospital, but as soon as he was given a clean bill of health, the market was back up. Since then, there has been a solid amount of support for a Labor win, with close to $16,000 in bets bringing on a price change from $2.60 into $2.40. GOLF Stewart Cink broke a career hoodoo when he captured the WGC-NEC Invitational at Firestone CC. Cink had led on no less than six occasions entering the final round for no victories, a monkey he was very keen to get off his back. Firestone was his fourth PGA victory, his second for the season and the first for this season where a player had led wire to wire, all this on top of being named Captains choice by Hal Sutton to join the Ryder Cup team. Well supported players of the calibre of Vijay Singh, Ernie Els and Phil Mickelson failed to back up after the PGA Championship while Tiger Woods failed to add to his three victories here, however he has never finished further back than fourth in six attempts. And spare a thought for the punter who backed Cink to win over $200,000 the previous week at the PGA Championship only to change allegiances to Australian Adam Scott for this event. Ever had that Cinking feeling? Also on the PGA tour we had the Reno Tahoe Open won by rookie Vaughn Taylor who captured his first tournament victory in dramatic fashion, by winning a four man play-off. Conditions on the Sunday were not conducive to good scoring as gusty winds made it difficult, the scoring average for the round being pushed out to 74.352, the second worst for the season behind the US Open. Taylor showed great composure for a rookie making a fourteen foot birdie on the final hole to go into the play-off with Scott McCarron, Hunter Mahan and Australian Steve Allan and then repeating the dose on the first extra hole with an eleven foot birdie putt. The betting may have been slow, the scoring may have been ordinary and the field may not have been of the highest quality but the manner in which Taylor won suggests there will be more wins in store for the rookie. We head to the TPC at River Highland this week for the Buick Championship, formerly the Greater Harford Open, an event which has not attracted the greatest field but one which should produce a tight result. Heading the betting is Jerry Kelly at $19 ahead of wily veterans Tim Herron and Nick Price at $26 while up and comers Zach Johnson and Bo Van Pelt have had their share of admirers also at $26.There may not have been a lot of money invested in this event but the number of experienced players suggests an even contest. The European tour returns with the BMW International held in Munich, Germany. Heading the betting is South African Retief Goosen at $11 from Sergio Garcia at $13, Darren Clarke at $14, Padraig Harrington at $17 and Lee Westwood and Paul Casey both at $19. Our unlucky client who forgot to back Cink last week has unloaded on Sergio Garcia and Lee Westwood, both to the tune of $100,000, while there has also been support for Englishmen Paul Casey and Justin Rose and some money for 2001 winner John Daly. It should be a great contest.
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