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Aussie
Rules
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Centrebet Capers CRICKET England won the second Ashes Test in what turned out to be one of the best cricket matches of all time. It was real edge of the seat stuff as the last Aussie duo of Michael Kasprowicz and Brett Lee got Australia within two runs of what seemed an unlikely victory at the start of the fourth day’s play. Australia needed 112 runs with only two wickets remaining and even the most avid Aussie fan would not have rated our chances at all. In saying that, there were a few who took the 15.00 just before the start of play with the biggest of those bets being $600. Didn't they get a run for their money? All up, we recorded a win on the second Test but the late withdrawal of Glenn McGrath was costly. We were on top of the info that he would be coming out (although that didn't stop dozens of callers trying to bet on the top wicket taker for the series) and the price for England dropped from 5.00 to 4.00. All of a sudden everybody wanted a piece of England, led up by a bet of $10,000 at 4.00 from a Sydney punter. Australia got hard to lay at 1.83 but as we had already taken some big money for both Australia and the draw we were in a good position. The trading throughout the test was good, although the draw was basically out of play after the first session. The third test begins tonight (Thursday) and like the previous Test the betting has been huge. Bets of $25,000 and $20,000 came for Australia before Brett Lee was injured on Monday and we also took another $60,000 bet for the draw at 3.25 from one of our Indian regulars. He correctly pointed out that the long term weather predictions for Manchester may not be that good for the weekend but the way these two sides are playing, the match may well be decided by then. When Lee was announced as a doubtful starter we saw a concerted push come from the UK for the Poms to win with notable bets of £4000 and £2500 at 3.75 and another £4000 at 3.50. GOLF The golfing gods have continued to wage war against the Centrebet golf department with yet another disastrous week. Retief Goosen was backed to win in excess of $150,000 by one of our very in-form golfing clients. The win for Goosen may have been some compensation for the U.S. and British Opens where he looked the likely winner leading into the final day, only to not close either out. We head to the famous Baltusrol Golf Club in New Jersey for the final major of the year. Not surprisingly Tiger Woods has been installed 3.50 favourite over a field which excludes the number three player in the world, Ernie Els, who is recovering from knee surgery. The usual suspects have been best backed including, defending champion Vijay Singh at 7.00, along with Phil Mickelson (15.00), Goosen (16.00) and Darren Clarke (51.00). All have been backed to win $200,000 by our in-form golf fanatic. Other players not to dismiss include a very consistent Jim Furyk, Spaniard Sergio Garcia and Australian, Adam Scott all at 26.00 and all with the length that is required to tame Baltusrol. RUGBY UNION The Springboks seem to have come of age, racking up three consecutive victories against the top two rated teams in the world. Early money came steadily for both sides last week, especially at the handicap. This trend shifted on Saturday evening and we were writing bets 10/1 in favour of the visitors. The Kiwi’s were also backed to win over $30,000 in the tournament book on Saturday alone, forcing a firm into 1.45 before they jumped. The 22-16 score-line to the Boks gives us an indication of just how strong Southern Hemisphere rugby is at the moment or it highlights just how far behind British rugby is lagging at the moment. Game three of the Tri-Nations series is game one of the Bledisloe. New Zealand have opened 1.60 and -4½ point favourites on foreign soil. This is deemed to be an attractive price by the punters because by Tuesday afternoon we had a little over $30,000 invested on the visitors. A couple of our Trans-Tasman cousins have wagered two tidy bets, one of $15,000 and another of $10,000 at the 1.60. We’ve also seen a little support for at the handicap with two decent bets, one of $5,000 and another of $4,000. The locals have yet to come out in support of the Wallabies but their recent form at home (and at Telstra Stadium) suggests that the 2.35 will be well supported by the fans. The Tri-Nations tournament book has seen some significant fluctuations with New Zealand out to $1.90, South Africa into $2.50 and Australia out the gate at $6.00. AUSTRALIAN RULES The march up the ladder by St Kilda and the Western Bulldogs has commanded most of the attention this week. Last weekend was a black weekend, as far as AFL results go when seven of the eight favourites won. All would have been ok had the Kangaroos been beaten by Collingwood on Sunday. As the last of five 'shorties' to win for the weekend, there was an astronomical amount of money going through the Kangaroos and when Rex Hunt produced the 'fat lady' early in the last quarter we thought we were safe but as we have so often seen this season, it's never over until the final siren. The biggest payout on the multis was $100,000 from a wager of $40,000 for St Kilda, Adelaide, Fremantle and the Kangaroos all to win. Ouch! Port Adelaide were one of the year's biggest shorteners before they also came from behind to beat Carlton. We thought Port were a risk and bet accordingly and also paid the penalty when they started 1.43 after opening at 1.65. The first bet we took was $10,000 at 1.65 but the biggest bet was $25,000 at 1.55 on the way down. This week will feature the local derbies with the two games in Adelaide and Perth of most importance. The Eagles will go into the big clash against Fremantle undermanned and we are going to take them on. It is now possible that the Eagles can lose top spot after dominating all year and Fremantle can go a long way towards making the finals if they spring an upset. Brisbane play Sydney at Telstra Stadium and although they have won a few games recently it has been against sides at the bottom of the ladder or sides who have had injuries. They themselves have more problems this week with Simon Black and Jason Akermanis and that is enough for us to declare the Swans 'good things'. The Swans opened at 1.52 with Brisbane at 2.50 but it looks like punters are also a wake up to Brisbane's form-line as in the first 48 hours of betting we have taken less than $500 for them. RUGBY LEAGUE The Bulldogs were vying for premiership favoritism a couple of weeks ago, now all of a sudden they might be joining the Sydney Roosters, looking on from the sidelines when the finals begin. Punters left it in the bag when Newcastle came from behind to thump the Bulldogs 28-13 last Saturday night. We took four bets of $10,000 for the Bulldogs conceding 7 ½ point-start and had taken nearly $3000 in bets for them to win the title during the week at 5.50. Now they have blown out to 17.00, which nobody wants and 1.85 to make the finals. The St George juggernaut just keeps rolling along and the Dragons are now the new premiership favourites after doing a demolition job on the Cowboys last week. In a monstrous betting game both sides started at 1.90 and while the Dragons had bets of $26,000 and $25,000 placed on them we also took a $25,000 bet for the Cowboys to win along with a bet of $15,000 on the half time/full time double. Cronulla bounced back with a 40-16 win over Melbourne and rejuvenated their title hopes after some ordinary form. It is rare that the Sharks are the outsiders at home but they were in this game and there was any amount of money for Melbourne. Aside from a bet of $12,000 for Melbourne in the half time/full time double at 2.20 there was another two bets of $20,000 for them conceding 3 ½ point-start. We were under siege when betting opened on Wednesday morning this week as punters went on a big spending spree. The first side we saw money for was North Queensland who travel to Campbelltown to take on the all conquering Tigers on Sunday. The 3 ½ point-start we were giving to the Cowboys was taken in $28,000 worth of bets from a group of Sydney punters and another regular client placed $10,000 on them outright at 2.20. A similar set of circumstances arose in the Canberra v Souths game. Souths attracted two bets of $6000 and another two of $5000 with 6 ½ point-start. Our faith has once again been pinned on Cronulla who will be trying to lay the Roosters faint finals hopes to rest. We opened both at 1.90 but close to $45,000 was placed on the Roosters in the first hour of trading which saw a price cut to 1.85. The big match in what is shaping as a spectacular round will be played in Brisbane on Sunday afternoon when the Broncos host St George Illawarra. The betting hasn't moved from the opening quote of 1.80 for Brisbane and 2.00 for the Dragons but there has been a terrible lot of small bets for the Dragons so don’t be surprised to see them go in as favourites. V8 SUPERCARS Round eight of the V8 Supercars gets under way this weekend with two races at Oran Park Raceway in Sydney. Both races will be held on Sunday, each of 54 laps of the 2.7km track. Mark Skaife and Marcos Ambrose have dominated the race since 1999 with Skaife winning the round from 1999 through to 2002. Ambrose drew pole in 2003 and won the round, winning again last year after Skaife was on pole. Both have opened at the head of betting at 3.25 with most of the early action for Ambrose. There has also been some money for Craig Lowndes (5.00) who has improved rapidly this season and is a previous winner back in 1998. Russell Ingall is also in contention at 9.00 but we rate Rick Kelly (21.00) the best chance of the outsiders. Kelly's crew appears to have fixed some of the mechanical problems they have encountered this season and did set the fastest time in practice last year. BIG BROTHER The countdown is on to see who will work away with the prize money as the fifth winner of Australian Big Brother. In a first, there is still an intruder left in the race and Vesna has been very well backed to take out the major prize. Tim has been favourite from Vesna for several weeks and as recently as last Friday we took two big bets for Tim of $2500 and $1800 at 1.83. This week though with only three left, the popularity polls are having trouble splitting Tim and Vesna, with Greg the outsider and favourite to go on Sunday. This eviction book is one of the quietest we have had as punters focus firmly on backing the winner of BB. Vesna has attracted nearly $12,000 worth of bets this week at 2.25 and 2.10 and is now into 2.00 while we have taken close to the same amount for Tim at 1.85 and 1.90. While Greg is hot favourite to be the next one evicted, there are a few out there who think he can stay on and win as there has been nearly $700 invested on him to win at 10.00. Betting to win Big Brother will re-open as soon as Sunday's eviction is announced but will close at noon on Monday so get in early. IDOL The second series of New Zealand Idol is well and truly under way and while we don't get to see the show over here in Australia it has been fun trying to work out the prices and monitor the bets. Nik has been the favourite for two weeks and is now into 3.00. Of the nineteen left in the series all bar two have had bets placed on them but the biggest bet hasn't exceeded $50 yet and that suits us fine. Most of the males have had the majority of wagers placed on them and apart from Nik, Steven (7.00) has been the best backed. We are also taking bets on who will make the top ten as the wildcard show winner. Teresa is the 2.10 favourite and we have noticed a handful of bets from her hometown of Wellington come through although Lissel (2.75) is also quite popular. Australian Idol will be open later today (Thursday after the announcement of the 'top 30' last night. The last series was probably the most popular 'reality' series we have ever covered around the world, with Casey Donovan winning the final as a 4.00 outsider. Unfortunately Donovan's success hasn't reached the dizzy heights of runner up Anthony Callea but that is the fickle nature of showbiz and only goes to prove what a difference there is between public opinion and the voters on these types of shows. ELECTIONS There has been a significant move for Prime Minister Helen Clark to serve another term as the betting total approaches $50,000 for the New Zealand election. In the past seven days, the ratio of bets has been running at 4-1 in favour of Clark and ironically the biggest bet, $4000, came from an Australian. Clark's Labour Party has firmed in the betting to 1.61 from 1.65 last week which has seen the price for Don Brash ease out to 2.20 from 2.10. There is still support for Brash though with two New Zealander’s each plonking $1000 on him this week. Until next week, good punting For
further information contact Gerard Daffy at Centrebet on 02 9206 8715 or
centrebet@centrebet.com
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