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Aussie
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Centrebet Capers CRICKET This current Ashes series has had everything and with three tests down the series is tied following an exciting draw in Manchester. Glen McGrath was a late inclusion into the Australian side for the third test and that sparked a late flurry for Australia. We had previously taken bets of $25,000 and $20,000 for Australia at 2.00 before Brett Lee was injured, which then saw Australia blow out to 2.40. One of our Indian clients had placed $60,000 on the draw at 3.25 and there was any amount of money for England with the two biggest bets, $40,000 (3.50) and $30,000 (3.70) both coming from Australian clients. Once again, the mail from India was spot on with most of the third day lost to rain, which was the main reason Australia escaped with a draw. There is now a little over a week before the fourth test at Trent Bridge, and with several of the Australian players under the microscope we have noticed that punters have dropped right off them. We posted Australia at 2.10 and only took $400 in the first two days of betting, whereas there has been plenty of small support for both England and the draw at 3.30. Australia are now 2.05 to win the series but the money has been on the other two options there as well with a £4000 wager coming for a drawn series at 3.50 and nearly $8000 worth of bets for England at the same quote. AUSTRALIAN RULES Hawthorn landed a winning bet of $15,000 at 3.10 against Essendon on Sunday with the same client also placing $15,000 on the Hawks with 15 point-start at 2.10 but we were more than happy to pay as the Bombers had an absolute fortune going through them in multiples. While two favourites were beaten for the round, there were some massive firmers in the betting, which saw the round go to punters. The West Coast answered their critics with a resounding win over Fremantle in a game where there was money both ways, with the Eagles landing a winning bet of $22,000 at 1.58. Sydney were one of the biggest firmers for the year on Sunday. As much as 1.62 was given before they started 1.30 and that was reflected on the scoreboard as they thumped the Lions. I know we say it every week but the upcoming round does really have a significant bearing on the finals. St Kilda travel west to play Fremantle on Friday and this is a danger game for the Saints. Fremantle can still make the finals if they win here and their 'good' home form has been fabulous. We posted St Kilda at 1.58 looking for takers and to date have taken two $5000 bets. Geelong are rated a 2.40 chance to beat the West Coast on Saturday and this is one of those games where punters are treading very warily. There is still a doubt over the 'away' form of the West Coast and Geelong are due to get several players back so an upset looms. RUGBY LEAGUE Punters left it in the bag when the Wests Tigers disposed of North Queensland last weekend. Even though the Cowboys had injury concerns with Bowen, Bowman and Hannay, they were backed from 2.30 into 2.05 and even that was being taken at the finish. Three separate bets of $20,000 were placed at the win prices and another two bets of the same size taken with 2 ½ point-start. Dragons supporters are rolling in cash at the moment and they have a bit more to play with after beating Brisbane. The Broncos at home are always popular but on this occasion the bet ratio was 4-1 in favour of the Dragons and it proved a costly game. What makes it worse is that St George Illawarra are a terrible result in our premiership book and are now into 2.60 while the Broncos are now completely friendless at 5.00 after that loss and the subsequent resting of Darren Lockyer until the finals series starts. The Dragons are going to go around at a very short quote on Sunday against Parramatta. It doesn't matter what price we put up the Dragons at the moment the punters take it and if they beat the Eels convincingly, they will shorten even further to win the title. The opening 1.45 in this match was taken with a bet of $22,500 while the -6 ½ was also taken by bets of $10,000 and $9000. The Eels have never been one of our favourite sides but all will be forgiven if they win on Sunday. RUGBY UNION The Wallabies managed to concede the Bledisloe Cup for another year. It was not only a rotten result for Australian rugby fans but also a horrible result for the traders in the Centrebet office. It wasn’t until four hours before kick-off that we wrote a bet greater than $250 for the Wallablies. In stark contrast, the All Blacks were the subject of an enormous plunge consisting of two $20,000 bets, another or $15,000 and three $10,000 wagers. This week Australia will be out to redeem themselves. However, the early business has forced a radical shift from 1.85 into 1.72 perhaps on the back of more injury concerns. With three points separating these teams over three encounters in Perth, combined with recent results and injuries, finding the winner in this match will be more difficult than on first appearances. GOLF It’s hard to imagine a better PGA championship than the 87th at Baltusrol. It had everything. Shot making, great putting, big names, great comebacks, a weather delay to prolong the tension and a laconic player who just seems to get the job done. Phil Mickelson won his second major in two years with a one shot victory over Aussie, Steve Elkington and Dane, Thomas Bjorn. Tiger Woods and Davis Love finished a shot further back in a tie for 4th with Woods coming from 113th after a first round five over par 75. Whatever you think of the result and rest assured Centrebet were not too fond of a Mickelson win after he was backed to win in excess of $200,000 the monkey is well and truly off his back. The door is now open wide and only recognition as one of the game’s great players awaits on the other side. This week is the second WGC event of the year, the NEC Invitational at Firestone Country Club in Ohio. Favourite is Tiger Woods at 3.35 which may be an attractive price as he holds a strong affinity for the golf course with wins in '99,'00 and '01. The last three years has produced some upsets with Aussie, Craig Parry a winner in '02, Darren Clarke in '03 and Stewart Cink last year. However, with the form the current leading players are in its hard to imagine the winner not coming out of the top four players in the world. Vijay Singh is next in the betting at 8.00 from Mickelson (11.00) and Retief Goosen (15.00). It has been Singh and Goosen who have been backed to win more than $100,000 by a regular golfing punter along with David Toms and Kenny Perry at 34.00 and defending champion Stewart Cink at 51.00. HORSE RACING The Caulfield and Melbourne Cups are open for betting as is the Cox Plate and with the weights not due out for another couple of weeks, things have been on the quiet side. However, there are a couple of horses that have demanded some attention. In the Caulfield Cup, Perth stayer, Plastered has been an early firmer into 8.00 after opening at 11.00. Plastered recently won a trial in impressive fashion and did campaign well in Melbourne last year when he won the Victoria Derby. There hasn't been any significant action on the Melbourne Cup yet apart from Irish stayer, Vinnie Roe who is into 13.00 after opening at 15.00. Many of the major chances are either resuming or due to resume over the next few weeks so that will see floods of money, especially for the overseas contingent. BASKETBALL The NBL season tips off on September 2 which is an earlier start than usual to enable the completion of the season before the commencement of the Commonwealth Games. At least 10 new imports will be suiting up plus another dozen or so local players lining up with different teams, the most traveled being Aaron Trahair who will be at his fifth club in the Hunter Pirates and re-uniting with his first NBL coach, Adrian Hurley. They got a Championship in Perth but have opened at $81 to get another this season. Here's a brief summary of what we can expect in season 2005/06 with opening Championship price. Brisbane (3.00): Have added Bradtke, Copeland and Sam Mackinnon. If they gel and all stay healthy they will be the team to beat. Sydney (3.25): It's not that long ago that the Kings couldn't win anything; now they are going for four titles straight. No obvious reason why they can't. Wollongong (7.50): If Cortez Groves returns as a more mature, improved player the Hawks will be thereabouts again. Perth (8.50): Have recruited strongly with two new imports plus Boucher and Rogers. However, their biggest plus could be the return of Matt Burston. Melbourne (10.00): So much the same but also very different, if only for the absence of the Gaze’s. Anstey is obviously a plus but a fit and healthy Mottram is also a bonus. Townsville (13.00): Much the same as last season. Import Abney replaces Brown and veteran Lowery comes in. Definitely pose a threat. Adelaide (15.00): Couldn't get Cattalini or Rogers back. Nash returns after injury and Brad Hill will be better after his first year in the league. They shouldn't be worse than last season. Cairns (21.00): A new coach in Alan Black and top shelf players in Mee and Cattalini will give the Taipans their best chance ever. Injury to Chris Burgess is a blow, especially if his replacement doesn't measure up. West Sydney (26.00): Look to have a very good import pairing and a nice mix of youth and experience. We might be under-rating them. Hunter (81.00): Nearly folded in the off-season after an excellent year which saw them in the playoffs. Two new imports and the Pirates will be very fortunate if they measure up to the standard set by Franklin and MVP Wethers. New Zealand (101.00): Seemed to have lost their way a little. BIG BROTHER Logan Greg provided a major shock when he won Australian Big Brother on Monday night. That was the second shock in two days as Greg was the favourite to be evicted on Sunday night but it was Vesna who didn't make it through to the final. We had taken a bet of $3500 for Greg at the opening quote of 1.28 but in a great betting battle he got out to 1.60 following a late rally for Vesna who came in from 6.00 to start at 2.50. As soon as the Sunday eviction show was over, betting opened on the final two. Tim was the favourite at 1.55 with Greg at 2.40 but by the time betting closed on Monday morning, Tim was into 1.35 with Greg out to 3.00. The biggest bet on the final two was $4000 for Tim at 1.40 while Greg had two $500 bets placed on him at 2.75. All up, over $250,000 was bet on this series, making it the most popular reality show we have ever done. IDOL New Zealanders are starting to warm to betting on NZ Idol but three of the best backed, Lissel, Marcel and Saelyn are already out of the show. Nik Carlson is still the favourite at 3.00 but while a lot of the talk in the forums points towards him being the likely winner he is a long way short of being the best backed. That honour goes to both Rongo Brightwell (6.00) and Steven Broad (7.00) who between them have dominated the bet count. We did make Wellington teenager, Teresa Bergman second favourite at 5.50 this week following her qualification via the wildcard route. Wildcards receive the most publicity before the final show starts and it is obviously clear that the viewers like her, a key element to these types of shows. This week the final 30 are on show in Australian Idol. The show has been a bit different this time as we haven't seen as much of the artists to date but that hasn't stopped the public from backing their picks. Chris Luder, the 'Fifth Wiggle' has been backed to take out close to $15,000 and is now the favourite at 7.00 ahead of Joshua Williams at 7.50. Michael Williamson (11.00) has been backed to win $12,000. The most popular of the females to date has been Natalie Zahra who shares the second line of betting at 7.50. ELECTIONS For the first time this campaign, we have seen some decent money come for the outsider in the New Zealand election and the key factor is that it is all coming from Kiwi punters. In excess of $100,000 has been wagered on the upcoming NZ election with the biggest bet to date being $50,000 for Helen Clark (Labour) but that was placed by an Aussie client who bets regularly on elections. While Helen Clark has been shortening to be the NZ Prime Minister (from 1.83 into 1.44) the bulk of the money has been coming from Australian clients but that changed this week with two $5000 bets for Don Brash, one at 2.62, and the second at 2.50. Since then we have taken close to $10,000 from other New Zealanders forcing Brash into 2.40. We know that Helen Clark has had some big bets placed on her, she has made some terrific promises and that the polls have her well ahead but from what we are seeing coming across the Tasman it is much closer than that. Until next week, good punting For
further information contact Gerard Daffy at Centrebet on 02 9206 8715 or
centrebet@centrebet.com
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