Over the
last few weeks I have covered the last of my seasonal series of
football betting types (although I may add a couple on props and
futures if time allows later this season). I have received a ton of
emails, many with excellent questions or suggestions that will
hopefully make next year’s columns better than this years. However, I
also get a lot of emails on topics outside what is covered in my
columns. There are a couple of themes that stand out: “Who do you like
in tonight’s big game?” and “I want to use a handicapping service. Who
do you recommend?” I want to cover both of these issues today.
First
off, for those of you that write in asking for my opinion on games,
please understand two things. First, giving out plays is bad for
business when you are a bookmaker. I am flattered that some of you
respect my writing enough to ask my opinion on a game, but think about
what happens from my perspective. If I give you a winning play, you
beat your book and in some cases that will be from my pocket. If I
give you a losing play there will be feelings of bitterness and
perhaps even worse. It is a no-win situation and one I prefer to
avoid. Speaking of no win situations, let's move on to my second
point. I am a bad handicapper. Really bad. I tend to over analyze
every detail until the point where I could bet either side. That is
how I came to work on this side of the counter. So in summary, getting
Rob’s picks = bad for business = losses for you. I’ll stick to giving
advice on matters I understand. Picking winners is not one of those
matters.
All
right, now on to topic number two, discussing the guys who really can
pick winners. A handicapper is not a large man with a baseball bat who
collects debts for bookmakers. A handicapper is somebody who makes a
living selling other people their picks on sporting events. In my
opinion there are two types of people in the handicapping business,
legitimate handicappers and scamdicappers. The legitimate guys are
among the most honest people in this industry. They have to be as
reputation is the key to their success. They work hard to deliver good
service to their clients at a fair price. Scamdicappers are guys that
have no interest in delivering good service, they just want your money
and will do whatever they have to do to get as much of it as they can.
Today, I want to help you understand a little more of that side of the
business so you can decide if using a handicapping service is right
for you, so you can find a good service and so you can avoid the
scamdicappers. I think the easiest format will be to deal with the
common questions I get, one at a time.
If these guys are so good at picking winners, why are they
selling their picks and not just betting? This is pretty
simple really; they have families. Being a professional sports bettor
means their will be winning streaks and losing streaks. While the
handicappers understand and tolerate these streaks, spouses and
children may not. Running a business that is legal in all 50 states
where there is a steady source of income provides a much healthier
lifestyle than trying to bet to make a living.
If these guys are so good at picking winners, why do you
advertise on their sites? Are you paying them to give losing picks?
Yes, we do advertise heavily on handicapping sites and no, we do not
pay them to give out losing plays. Any handicapping site that has
enough traffic to justify advertising there is probably giving out
more winning picks than losers. However, many bettors that use these
services also play their own picks or do not follow the advice to the
letter and we profit on these in the long run. If clients of
handicapping services only bet the picks they were given at
recommended amounts, we probably wouldn’t be advertising there.
Should I use a handicapping service? That is not a
question I can answer for you. To consider using a service, there are
a few things for you to consider. Do you consider this recreation? Are
you betting to make a profit? How much does the service cost? How many
plays are you getting? How much do you bet per game? The first two
questions are personal, but if you enjoy betting sports and want to
try to make a profit but just don’t have the time to handicap yourself
than maybe a service is right for you. The last questions are
important to make sure the math works right. If a service costs $300
for a month, will give you 60 plays and you bet $110 per game, what
percentage does the service need to hit to justify their expense? In
other words, will the service get enough extra wins for you to cover
the $300?
Sorry
for the algebra but we will let X = number of wins, Y = Number of
losses and so Y = 60-X. Now the equation, we need to balance the
number of wins at +$100 with the number of losses at $-110 plus the
cost of the service (in our example $300). So:
| |
X($100) = Y($110) + $300 |
|
| |
X($100) = (60 – X)($110) + $300 |
|
| |
X($100) = $6600 – X($110) + $300 |
|
| |
X($100) + X($110) = $6600 + $300 |
|
| |
X($210) = $6900 |
|
| |
X
= $6900/$210 |
|
| |
X
= 32.86 |
|
32.86
wins means the service must hit 54.77% (32.86/60) to cover their cost.
Better than that and you make money. Lower than that and you lose.
Running the same example with a $550 average bet means the service
must only hit 52.86%. At $22 per wager, it must hit 64.29%. Obviously,
every situation is different but generally you should count on the
handicapper winning 54-57% of their plays. If you are not betting
enough (or getting enough picks for the cost) than you need to look
for another service, or hold off for now.
How can I tell if a handicapper is legitimate? Ask
questions and get answers before you give out your phone number or
credit card info. Ask if a service is monitored. If a handicapper does
not let a neutral third party verify their plays then their win% may
not be what they claim. Ask how they make their picks. Some guys use
complex analysis of the all the fundamentals. They watch game film and
break down position-by-position looking for an edge. Others look for
situations, following years of patterns and trends. Others use
information gathered from personal contacts that watch the teams up
close. Many use a combination of the three. Whatever their formula is,
they should be able to explain it and it should be something you feel
is important. If the service only wants your phone number and credit
card information before they will discuss this kind of stuff, hang up
the phone.
I am
running out of room today, so I should wrap things up. My only other
advice on the topic would be to stick with a service for a longer
period of time. Every handicapper goes through peaks and valleys; to
them it is only the long run that counts. Buying picks for just a week
or a month may not give you a large enough sample to truly judge their
abilities. Buying longer-term packages also means you get a much lower
cost/play. If you have problems finding a good list of handicapping
services you can try the Links section on our homepage or use
respected sites with multiple handicappers such as Covers.com,
VegasExperts.com, VegasInsider.com or Picks.WS. I would like to thank
Brian Gabrielle (www.bgsnetwork.com), Doc’s Sports (www.docsports.com),
Big Al McMordie (www.bigal.com) and Bryan Leonard (www.footballwinners.com)
for their help on this column.
As
always, I want to leave you with Kent’s Line Move of the Week. Kent is
BoDog’s top bookmaker and each week he discusses a key line move with
us. This week’s comments are on the total of the Monday Night Football
game between the Bears and Dolphins. “Last night’s game goes to show
how important 37 is as a total in the NFL. Four Touchdowns and 3 Field
Goals adds up to 37 and is a magic number that we hate to move off of,
if possible. When the Bears lined up to go for two late in the Fourth
quarter with the score 27-9, only people who had bet the total were
still watching. Make the convert and the Over is the winner, miss and
Under wins – that is drama. Al Michaels even alluded to it with his
Alka Seltzer comment. The sooner the NFL realizes betting creates
viewers the better in my humble opinion. Anyway, just remember that 37
is a key total in the NFL and getting a half point above or below is
very important. Just ask the guys who had the Over last night.”
I will
be back next week with a look at the NFL weekend in detail from our
side of the counter. Good luck.
I
always welcome comments, questions and suggestions via email at
rob@bodog.com
Rob Gillespie
Operations Manager
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