Bowl
season is upon us, the holidays are almost here and the NFL regular
season is wrapping up. So, for the next few weeks, rather than get
started on basketball columns, I will deviate from regular programming
to provide a little larger peek behind the bookmaking curtain. I
always considered this type of column a bit of a crutch (for those
weeks where the creative juices aren’t exactly boiling over with fresh
ideas), but the last few of this style that I wrote produced a lot of
positive emails (in fact a couple of places asked me to send them such
a summary every week) so perhaps resorting to a review format isn’t
too bad after all. Today, I will discuss how this past weekend looked
from the House’s perspective and next week I will look ahead to the
major Bowl games and let you know how the wagering action is
progressing.
Lately,
I have received a lot of emails asking about how this college
basketball season is progressing compared to last year or how does a
college basketball Saturday compare to a college football Saturday.
Let me answer both questions here. Handle on college basketball has
been very strong; right now we are booking nearly double what we did
per game on college hoops at this point last year. November had a
light schedule but what games we did book were very profitable for us
but December has been more of a grind so far. Conference play starts
in just a couple of weeks and coincides with the end of Bowl season.
That is the point where college basketball betting really takes off.
Last
Saturday was the first Saturday without football (not counting CFL or
AFL) since July, but it did have a full slate of college basketball
(over 50 games). With college hoops, the action per game is much less
than what you get with college football. In fact, some of the smaller
college basketball games might only get a few dozen bets. With college
football, we offer a lot more product (more totals, moneylines, first
half lines, halftimes lines, props, etc) because of the larger handle
so you have a lot more on your board on those days. However, with
college basketball, there is a lot of work to be done on game day, as
all the lines have to be posted. With football, you have done the bulk
of the work earlier in the week and can just concentrate on running
lines and balancing your action. In total for a season, because there
are so many more teams and games 7 days a week, college basketball
handle and college football handle end up in the same ballpark every
year. College baskets take a little more work every day but never
comes close to the rush and excitement of a full schedule of college
football (with the exception of the opening day of March Madness of
course).
Saturday was a break-even day on college baskets for us. Players won
big with San Diego State and Illinois and had mid-sized wins on
Oregon, Rutgers and Missouri. The House had revenge with mid-sized
wins on Boise State (over Idaho), Mississippi State (over Xavier) and
Purdue (over Indiana). Overall, we were slightly down on straight
wagers but came out a little ahead thanks to a few upsets that helped
us to profit on parlays and teasers.
Both
Sunday and Monday were good days for the book and a couple of upsets
led the way. For the early games, there was heavy action on the Jets,
Steelers, Ravens, Falcons and Dolphins. The Jets were bet from –6.5 to
–7 despite being on the road (this line seemed high to us, we had it
pegged at –5) and their outright loss to the Bears was a tough hit for
teaser players. Players were also playing the Over (went from 36.5 to
37.5, that takes heavy volume) so the game was doubly good for the
House and doubly bad for parlay players. The Steelers line was –9
(hosting the Panthers) all week (our power ratings had it at –8 and so
we didn’t move to –9.5) and they cruised to a 16-point win. We thought
Baltimore should have been a 2.5-point favorite so we stayed at –3
despite heavy action (we just kept moving the attached moneyline up,
all the way to –135). Players were in heavy on the Under (35) for this
game so the 23-19 final score was good for us and really bad for books
that moved up past –3.5. The Falcons game was the big winner for the
books. The line of Falcons –9.5 made it a very popular choice for
teasers so their missed Field Goal in Overtime and the subsequent
Seattle touchdown made for some happy book managers. The line was bet
from –9 to –9.5 and even –10 briefly before some professional bettor
action brought it down. This was a clear case of the public liking one
side and the pros liking the other. This one went against the public.
We had this spread estimated at 8 to 8.5 so we took a little more
Atlanta money than perhaps some other books did. We saw the Dolphins
as 2-point favorites but traditionally see a lot of Raiders action so
we lowered the opening line to –1.5. It was bet pretty evenly with us
although we did see steam driving the play as high as Pick elsewhere.
We closed at –1 and late public action on the Dolphins gave the public
a little revenge over the pros. The other early games were much more
balanced with players winning a little with Jacksonville (or were they
betting against the Bengals) and the Vikings but the House cashing in
on the Lions cover and the Chargers/Bills Under.
The
late afternoon games were very balanced for the second week in a row.
We did see players win with the Packers on the moneyline and the
Broncos/Chargers Over but got our share with the Giants/Cowboys game
going Over and the Broncos win and cover. In hindsight, we should have
had the Giants at –6 (closer to our opinion) but the other two spreads
were bang on with Denver –3.5 and SF –3. The biggest handle of any day
game was definitely the SF/Green Bay game, although the Chiefs/Broncos
and Dolphins/Raiders games were close behind.
The
Sunday Night game saw players load up on the Rams (-11 vs. Arizona)
and the Over (from 43 to 44). Action was light and very balanced until
the end of the afternoon games but the last hour produced a flurry of
betting activity. The 30-28 final score was good for the House on the
side and good for players on the total. Straight bets were a wash but
we did well on parlays and teasers (both the spread and total finished
outside teaser range).
Monday
Night was a tougher line to manage. We had the Titans pegged as a
2-point favorite and opened with that line. It was bet all the way to
3 during the week and then New England players jumped on board. We
hate to move off 3 once we have moved there so we stuck it out at –3
(Even) and it worked in our favor when the Titans won easy. We also
saw a lot of Patriot action on the moneyline as well as money on the
Over (never moved from 43.5) so the 24-7 final score was good all the
way around.
Overall, it was a good weekend for the book and we are looking forward
to a successful Bowl season starting tonight. There will be no Line
Move of the Week feature this week as they have been covered already
but I would like to thank Kent (BoDog’s top bookmaker) for his help
today and he will be back next week to discuss a key line move with
us. I will be back next week with a Bowl game preview. Enjoy the early
games and good luck with your holiday shopping.
I
always welcome comments, questions and suggestions via email at
rob@bodog.com
Rob Gillespie
Operations Manager
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