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Aussie
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Centrebet Capers
[Cricket | CRICKET] There weren’t too many surprises in the third Test match in Perth, there were controversial decisions, more English players injured, and Australia won well inside the five day allocation, all pretty mundane stuff now! The English batsmen gave us a faint glimmer of hope in the first hour of play on the first day, but it was all downhill after that. We took a bit of a stance on the Aussies before the match started, including one bet of $40,000 at $1.30, but as far as a betting contest went, it was all over during the second session on the first day. The only thing that was alive and well after then was betting on our wide and varied assortment of exotic options, and while we came out well ahead on those, one Sydney punter had an interesting series of bets that saw him win $3750. He placed $50 on every wicket being a “run out”, normally a rare occurrence in Test Cricket. Nothing is normal however when the English play cricket, and with the Poms losing three wickets that way, and Australia one, the $26 proved to be well over the odds. Those that took the $5.50 for Australia to win the Series 5-0 are now sitting on “easy street” as they are now into $1.50. The Series batting and bowling totals are still wide open, with Matthew Hayden (376 runs) $1.80 to top the runs ahead of Ricky Ponting (344) at $2.30. Both are losers for us, but we haven’t given up hope just yet as Michael Vaughan (294) and Damian Martyn (256) are within striking distance. Glen McGrath edged further away by one wicket following Perth, taking his total to 17. McGrath is three wickets in front of Shane Warne, but the signs are there that Warne is going to be suited by the MCG wicket, so McGrath has actually “eased” out to $1.70, with Warne into $2.20. Several of our Indian clients have been eagerly awaiting the opening prices for the One Day Series, but were bitterly disappointed when we posted Australia at $1.25. The way Sri Lanka have been playing in South Africa, and England with all their woes, it’s not surprising we haven’t had a decent taker at the $6.25 and $6.75 respectively. The Boxing Day Test is a long way off, but if anybody fancies the $1.28 Australia, then they are more than welcome to take it! It will be the middle of summer in Melbourne at that time, but many times over the past few years, this Test has been interrupted by rain, so we think it’s worth a little risk so far out. Some of the national players will be back for their state sides in the ING Cup matches tomorrow (Fri). Victoria have become a real enigma over the past month, but one Sydney punter has put that inconsistent form aside and placed $6000 on the Vics to beat South Australia at $1.80. Western Australia are nearly invincible on their home turf, and with Tasmania unlikely to have the manpower to take advantage of a bouncy WACA wicket, WA deserve the quote of $1.28. We haven’t seen any real action on this game as yet, but we have taken just over $2000 for Tasmania ($2.90) to take the most points in the Pura Cup match which begins on Sunday. Centrebet will also be covering India’s Tour of New Zealand, and prices for the first Test will be available on Saturday. [Greyhounds | GREYHOUNDS] Last Thursday’s Melbourne Cup went to the red runner, Excite Ability, who started $2.60 favourite. We were quite surprised by the level of international interest in the Cup, with over 60 punters from outside of Australia placing a wager on the race. Most of those either went for the winner, Waterview Star ($5.50) or Ryder Bale, who was backed from $34 into $15. The stage is now set for the “Top Gun” this week, and we have already taken a host of bets from overseas. A Greyhound enthusiast from Sweden has had the biggest bet, 10,000 SEK ($AUD 2000) on favourite Modern Assassin at $2.35. The Champion sprinter has drawn the one box, but has appeared “jaded” at his last two starts, and could find himself in trouble early. A Victorian punter has backed both Silver Saul ($8) and Excite Ability ($8) to win $5000, but both have drawn horribly in three and four. A NSW punter backed Lindale Blue to win $25,000 in last week’s Cup, and has come back again with a $500 bet at $26, but it’s hard to see him winning from box 5. One dog who does have the capabilities is “Big Sam Banner”, a $5.50 chance with Centrebet. Much better odds are on offer elsewhere, but he is desperate for the rails and should get a good run from box two. [Harness Racing | HARNESS RACING] There was controversy leading up to last week’s Miracle Mile, firstly when Victorian Shakamaker was left out of the field, then on race-eve when it was thought the favourite, Double Identity, had been “nobbled”. That notion was soon discounted when a vet examination revealed the horse had only swallowed some dirt, but that seemed to spark a huge amount of interest in the race. As we mentioned last week, Jofess had been backed early in the week, and on Friday Jofess firmed from $4.50 into $4 after he was backed to take out over $40,000. Big money came from New Zealand for Young Rufus, with a $2000 bet at $5.50 on Thursday followed by $8500 at $5 taken on Friday. Last year’s winner Smooth Satin had firmed from $6.50 into $5.25, and while all of this was going on, Double Identity got out to $4.50. That was taken with a $3000 bet from NSW and he once again proved what a good horse he is by defeating Smooth Satin. The “Ben Hur” is on this Friday night, and with most surprised that Young Rufus didn’t get a handicap, the Kiwi will now go in as a warm favourite at $3.50. New Zealand punters think the stand start conditions will suit Young Rufus as we have taken over $5000 for him in early trading, all from New Zealand. [Tennis | TENNIS] Russian tennis players are renowned for their volatile natures, and most have trouble coping in times of pressure, but Marat Safin and Mikhail Youzhny came from 2-1 down to win the reverse singles and hand Russia their first ever Davis Cup. This event was played on indoor clay, and with all five of the matches looking close on exposed form, we found the betting to be evenly spread. The one good result we did have was Safin’s fourth rubber win over France’s Sebastian Grosjean. Grosjean opened at $1.95, and in early betting, two Australian’s each placed $5000 on the Frenchman. Safin is such a “hot and cold” player that we rarely see any serious money for him, and the powerful serving Russian produced at the right time, winning in straight sets. Anyone that can play the game will now be heading for Australia for the “summer of tennis”. There are several small tournaments to be decided, but the focus is firmly on the Australian Open. Injuries make it impossible to price up the women’s title, but the men’s is open, with Lleyton Hewitt the $3.75 favourite. Now we all know how good Lleyton is, and how big a heart he has, but surely some of the statements he made following his Masters win a few weeks ago must be a concern for those who have rushed in and bet early! Hewitt said he was lucky to see out the Tournament, and that he was still suffering from the after affects of his bout with chicken pox early in the year. When you consider the extreme conditions that the Aussie open is normally played in, coming into it with a fatigue type of illness is not an ideal preparation. Plenty of players have already met with support, but no substantial bets have been taken as yet. Most of the bets have gone on Andre Agassi ($9) and Roger Federer ($10). [Basketball | BASKETBALL] If it was any other team, the Sydney Kings would be long “odds on” to win the NBL title right now, but punters can’t seem to be convinced that they are in fact the “real deal”. Last week, the Kings had two victories by a total of 68 points, with one of those being a 28 point win over Perth, and yet the only bet we have taken for them during the past week has been $80 at $2.50. Then the Kings, as only they can do, come out last night and get beaten by “Cellar Dwellers” Brisbane, so perhaps punters are right in avoiding Sydney. Wollongong are second picks at $5, while the Melbourne Tigers, who were the target of a nationwide plunge a month ago, are now into $7. Canberra had a poor weekend when they lost at home to Perth on Friday night (by one point), then travelled to Melbourne on Saturday, only to get thumped by 15 points. Two $5000 bets were placed on Canberra conceding 4½ points start against Perth, but one of those punters correctly identified the problems Canberra have always had when they travel by coming back on Saturday with a bet of $7500 for Melbourne to beat Canberra by more than 3½ points. West Sydney scored an eleven point win over Cairns on Saturday, which was also costly for Centrebet. Bets of $5000, $4400 and $3500 were placed on West Sydney conceding nine points start, and although Cairns trailed all night, they got to only seven behind with 14 seconds left on the clock. The problem when behind is that sides must take risks to attempt to score, and that is what happened with West Sydney scoring another four points to beat the spread. Last night (Wed), two matches were decided with most betting centred on the game between Wollongong and Adelaide. The favourites, Wollongong, had bets totaling just under $11,000 at -6 points, but Adelaide sprung an upset winning by 12 points. In the other match, Brisbane were at home to Sydney, and were 12 point underdogs. This will go down in the annals one of the upsets of the year as Brisbane went on to win by 7 points. A turnaround in form will see Melbourne go in as favourites at $1.45 (-5½) against West Sydney on Saturday, but punters disagree with the way we see the match. A lot of Sydney clients, including one with a bet of $1500, have taken the $3 for West Sydney, and we have also seen just over $6000 for them with the start. In the “live Fox” game, both Canberra ($1.40) and Adelaide ($2.80) have come in for early support, but no big bets have been taken as yet. The closest betting game of the round will be between two of the Queensland sides, Brisbane and Townsville, who are both languishing at the bottom of the table. A good case could be put forward why both can either win or lose this one, and that has made it quite a good betting match. The bulk of bets has been for Brisbane at $1.65, but they have been overshadowed by bets of $4000 and $1600 for Townsville at $2.25. In NBA news, even the return of Shaquille O’Neal hasn’t been enough to regain the dominance that the LA Lakers have had over other NBA sides. We have had the Lakers up at the best price available anywhere to win the NBA title since the season started, and in that time we have only been able to amass the paltry sum of $3000 out of them. The Lakers are now out to $3.50, and if they can’t find some winning form soon, Sacramento will displace them as favourites. Both Sacramento ($3.75) and San Antonio ($10) are in the West division, and on current form are strong possibilities of keeping the Lakers out. A Lakers loss is normally a very good result for us, but I doubt if we will have a better result from a Lakers loss than we did on Monday of this week. A client from Germany placed €20,000 on a treble for a payout of €112,000, with the three picks being Seattle to beat New Jersey (NBA), New Orleans to beat Tampa Bay (NFL), and finished off with the Lakers to beat Minnesota. New Jersey led for most of the game, and held a 4 point lead into the last minute. They then missed two free shots and a layup, only to see Seattle get a two pointer and a three pointer right on full time. Favourites home by one, and while all this was going on, New Orleans managed to hold on to beat Tampa Bay 23-20. Both could quite easily have been beaten, and the lot depended on the Lakers, raging $1.22 favourites beating Minnesota. Los Angeles led by 10 at half time, but Minnesota clawed their way back to lead by five points with 36 seconds left. Twice the Lakers got within one point, but Minnesota somehow “fell” in to win 110-107. It was a very nerve racking final few minutes! [Golf | GOLF] The Australian Golf Tour is only two weeks old, but we have had a year’s worth of controversies in those two events. The Australian PGA copped a heap of criticism for declaring Peter Lonard and Jarrod Moseley “dual” winners of last week’s PGA title at Coolum. Moves are afoot to ensure this doesn’t happen again, and if there is bad light, as was the case here, then they can come back the next day to get a winner. That’s probably fair enough too, because if you can pick or choose whether to play on, why have a deciding playoff in the first place? On this occasion though, we were extremely happy to see the rules change as Lonard was a loser for us coming into Sunday, but he was five shots behind Moseley. We then took a bet off a Queenslander of $4000 on Lonard at $6, and $1000 on Stuart Appleby at $101. The “draw” saw the punter win $8000 clear off Lonard, but the way he was playing, it looked as though he had Moseley’s measure even if they had have come back the next day. Appleby also finished like a “shot out of a gun”, shooting 67 on the last round to win up in third place, so this client did a pretty good job of assessing the form. The catch cry of Australian Golf is “the tradition continues”, but hopefully the traditions of the past two week’s don’t continue in the Australian Masters at Huntingdale this week. Unfortunately a few names will be missing as there is qualifying school on in the USA, and the overseas contingent is not strong, represented by Nick Faldo ($41) and Tom Watson ($81). The same names are at the top of the betting, with Robert Allenby favourite at $9 ahead of Stuart Appleby, Peter Lonard, Craig Parry and Adam Scott at $11. Parry has won this even three times, and was the first player we laid, with a bet of $1000 each way. Aaron Baddeley still has a bit of work to do on the mental aspect of his game, but he has also been “layable”, attracting bets to win $40,000 at $12. Peter O’Malley ($18) shot a course record 268 to win in 1998, and we noticed he found some form late in the PGA, and is the player we rate the best of the favourite. Tiger Woods is $2.50 to beat a field of 15 in the World Challenge to be played in California this week. Woods won by 3 shots from Vijay Singh last year, and was runner-up to Davis Love in 2000. It’s a terrific field, but we haven’t found many prepared to take the odds on offer for Tiger. Colin Montgomerie ($15) and Jim Furyk ($18) have each been backed to take out over $30,000, with Padraig Harrington ($18), backed to take out slightly less than that. Thongchai Jaidee is our $5 favourite to win the Asian Masters, while Tim Clark is $7 to beat a very weak field in the Player’s Championship in Cape Town. [Elections | ELECTIONS] Well once again it took the “experts” up until the eve of the Victorian election to work out what they could have had answered off the Centrebet website, and that was that Steve Bracks was an absolute certainty! Even as late as Thursday, some pollsters had it as a close contest, but we had Bracks at $1.02 and Robert Doyle at $10, and no takers! In fact we took less than $200 in bets for Doyle in the past two week’s prior to Saturday, so once again the “punters poll”, the betting market, proved the accurate barometer when Brack’s Labor Government romped home winning 75% of the seats. Two punters took the opportunity to marginally improve their bank balances on Friday. The first, from NSW, placed $1000 to win $20 (that’s correct, $20), while the other, from Victoria, was even more certain, placing $10,000 to win $200. We also got a clue as to how Labor would dominate from the ten seats we covered. Most were “marginal”, yet in all bar one, Labor were backed to the exclusion of all others. Only two of those ten seats, Bass and Benalla, didn’t go the way of punters, and that was enough to see us come out of the whole event with honours split between punters and the bookie. [Soccer | SOCCER] The money continued to come all week for the draw in the match between Farum and Odense last week in Danish football. There was some good logic why that option was backed from $3.70 into $3.50 as Farum hadn’t played out a draw all season, with 8 wins and 9 losses. Well punters will have to wait for the season to resume in March as Farum won 2-1, and amazing record! Danish punters had a good final round overall, with our big losses being on the FCK and Brondby games. FCK were the “banker” of most bets (beat Silkeborg 3-0), while Brondby landed two late bets of 100,000 DKK ($AUD 20,000) at $1.60 when they beat Koge 2-0. A German client with a deadly record when he backs favourites struck twice in Portugal at the weekend. He placed €8000 on both Sporting Lisbon ($2) and Uniao Leiria ($2.20) to win. Both won, with Sporting Lisbon beating Beira-Mar, and Uniao Leiria beating Varzim. In Spain, six of the ten favourites won, but we managed to “dodge” most winners and “lay” a few that were defeated. Deportivo ($1.75) had two bets from Austria, €10,000 and €7000, placed on them before they drew 2-2 with Mallorca, while an English client put £5000 on Atletico Madrid ($2.60) who were beaten 1-0 by Osasuna. Asian money, $20,000 and $10,000, went astray when Barcelona were beaten 2-1 by Sociedad, who now look a real title chance. Kaiserslautern landed a €10,000 winning bet at $2.45 when they prevailed 2-0 over Wolfsburg in Germany, but the weekend’s biggest winning “singles” bet was on the Premier League. A Malaysian client placed $USD 20,000 at $2.10 on Blackburn, and if that wasn’t enough he came back and had another $USD 10,000 at $2.05. Blackburn went on to beat Fulham 2-1. The early game this Saturday between Man United and Arsenal takes on extra meaning as United continue a charge towards the top of the table. Man United are our favourites at $2.30, and while they have been extremely easy to sell, two Danish punters have invested 50,000 DKK between them on Arsenal at $2.85. Liverpool ($1.90) are away to Charlton, and there is an early bet of $5800 from an Australian client, and of the other matches on offer, the only significant early move has been for Southampton at $1.80 to beat Birmingham. A client from Singapore was straight into two Italian Serie A sides as soon as betting opened. A $20,000 bet was placed on Udinese at $2 to beat Empoli, with a $12,000 bet going on AC Milan ($1.90), who are at home to Roma. [Handball | HANDBALL] The Women’s European Handball Championships begin on Friday, and if the betting to win “gold” and each group is any indication, then it’s going to be a monstrous betting tournament. Russia are our $3.50 favourites, ahead of Norway ($3.85) and Denmark ($5). Norway and Denmark have each been backed to win over $100,000 by clients from those respective countries, but defending champions Hungary ($9) have been backed to win 80,000 NOK ($AUD 16,000) by a Norwegian, while Russia had a bet of €4000 placed on them when they touched $3.80. The first round of matches are open, and with most being dominated by short priced favourites, most bets have been for the favourites coupled up in multiples. There are a couple of close matches though, and we are prepared to risk France and Romania in their games. Both have injuries to key players, and France have been very disappointing in warm up matches. The $1.40 France to beat the Netherlands has been taken, but as yet not too many have launched into the $1.80 Romania against Austria, apart from a €4000 bet from a German client. [Miscellaneous | MISCELLANEOUS] Finally, if you have reason to telephone Centrebet’s offices on Sunday morning, there is some chance that the staff member you get may be a little bit worse for wear! On Saturday night, Centrebet will be having the staff Christmas party, always a big occasion, but this year it will be a duel celebration as Sunday Dec 8 is also the tenth anniversary of when Centrebet opened, and a very big night is planned! A lot has certainly changed in those ten years, not only at Centrebet, but also globally. One can only wonder what the next ten years will bring? Until next week, good punting. For further information contact Gerard Daffy at Centrebet on 08 89555800 or on centrebet@centrebet.com
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