|
|
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
Aussie
Rules
|
Centrebet Capers
[Cricket | CRICKET] Shane Warne’s summer came to a premature end in last Sunday’s one day match, but while that was bad news for “Warnie” and Australia, it wasn’t so bad for a large group of punters who bet on one of our Ashes Series “exotic” options. As most remember, we framed a market on who would be Warne’s 500th Test victim, with most of the early money being on the option “It wont happen during the Ashes Series”, which was backed from $6 into $2.25. With the Melbourne and Sydney Tests to come, Warne only needed 12 wickets, and it was out to $2.75 with no takers. Over the past few week’s each of the English batsmen had met with support as it became obvious that Warne would more than likely get to the “500”, but as we have said so often before, “It’s not over until it’s over”. The only stipulation, or rule, that we put on this option was that Warne must have played in at least three of the Tests, which of course is what he had done. In the aftermath most sections of the media were keen to know if the possibility of Warne not being part of the World Cup team had affected Cup betting, but the answer is no. Whilst Warne is an integral part of Australia’s arsenal, we would expect that the pitches in South Africa will not be “spinner friendly”, instead suiting a pace attack. Also, no matter whether it’s MacGill, Hauritz or Williams who is sent as a replacement, any of those three spinners would more than cope, so Australia remain at $2.50. Game three of the One Day Series was played on Tuesday, and we finally had a betting contest, at least before the match started. England were the side that our Indian punters wanted to be on in the hours leading up to game start time. Bets of $26,000 and $20,000 were taken at $1.90, followed by $22,000 at $1.80. In typical fashion, Australian’s opposed the Poms, with some of the larger bets being $8000 and $7500 on the Sri Lankans at $2. England would have regained some confidence with a hollow victory after making 292 runs in their 50 overs, which proved too high a total to chase batting at night. These two sides face each other again on Friday at the WACA, on what is likely to be a lively pitch. Opinions differ on which side that is likely to suit, but one thing we do know is that whoever bats first will have a distinct advantage. England are favourites at $1.75, and it’s amazing how punters have forgotten their abysmal form prior to Tuesday as the first $23,000 bet on this game has all been for England. Three Pura Cup matches start today (Thurs), and with a lot of International cricket on, we have noticed a big decline in interest. Tasmania have had a bet of $1600 placed on them at $2.50 to take the points over Queensland, and Western Australia, away to South Australia, have had two bets totaling $4300 placed on them at $2.30. The second Test between New Zealand and India began in Napier today, and similarly to the first Test, Indian punters launched an attack on the draw. The $2.20 was taken to the tune of $23,000 in two bets, both from India, but lots of betting, including a $6000 bet, came from New Zealand for a Kiwi win at $2.35. The Indians were pathetic in the first Test, but a surely better than that performance, and look good odds at $4.75. [Greyhounds | GREYHOUNDS] Tricky Creek goes in as a hot $2.10 favourite to win tonight’s Brisbane Cup, and again we have found a strong level of interest from Scandinavia. A Swedish client placed 7500 SEK ($AUD 1500) on Tricky Creek at $2.25, and several other bets from that region have gone on the favourite. A Qld punter has placed $800 on “Sheza Good Sort” at $8, but the youngster is drawn badly in Box 5, and has Yo Yo’s Gem ($7) drawn on her outside. The favourite looks the one to beat, with youngster “Flying Scott” ($6) drawn well in Box 2 and in our view looks the only possibility of an upset. Last night (Wed) we covered the Ballarat Cup, which saw over 50 International clients place a wager. Speedster “Orochi” started our $4 favourite, but such is the popularity of the “Bale” Monicker, and trainer Graham Bate, that most of those bets, albeit small, were for Bitability Bale at $4.50. Knockabout Wok ($7) was the eventual winner, leading all the way. [Basketball | BASKETBALL] Wollongong are the current form side of the NBL, and had a good 7 point win over Sydney last Saturday night. That win by Wollongong gave us our best result of the round as Sydney were coupled up in a double of $11,000 as well as drawing a $5500 bet conceding 7 points start. Sydney remain title favourites at $3, but Wollongong have been elevated to second elects at $4.50. All three Queensland sides had victories, with Brisbane beating Victoria by 11 points, and West Sydney falling victims to both Cairns and Townsville. In both of those matches, the early money had been for the home sides, but in each instance the late money was for West Sydney. The Razorbacks carried the hopes of punters again last night when they were at home to Wollongong. Four separate bets of $2000 (all from NSW) were placed on West Sydney at $2.55, as well as bets of $5800 and $3000 for the Razorbacks with 4½ points start ($1.90). When Derek Rucker pulled out, $18,000 worth of bets came for Wollongong, but they went down narrowly by 2 points. The home sides for the rest of the round are all heavy favourites. The best backed of those has been the Adelaide 36ers against West Sydney. Just under $9000 has gone on Adelaide at $1.33, and -6½ points. The NBL is in disarray right at this point in time following the apparent demise of Canberra. The Cannons were in the top 4, and had the “doomsday double” coming up this weekend, with the second match in Perth due to be televised. It seems strange that a team in a national competition could be struggling after such a successful start to the year, and from our point of view, we have noticed a substantial increase in the level of interest in betting on the NBL this season, which could be interpreted as saying the competition was going well. Obviously not! The big question that needs answering is why did Canberra spend all that money a month ago when they went to America? [Rugby League | RUGBY LEAGUE] Betting has opened on next season NRL final 8, and also to make the grand final. We are holding off on the wooden spoon for the moment as we try and work out a set of rules suitable to everybody following on from this year’s controversial finish with the Bulldogs, but in reality we don’t expect too many people wanting to bet on that option. What possibly might be the fairest decision will be to bet up until round one, then close the book, and whoever is at the bottom of the table at the end of the home and away rounds will be paid as the “winner”, irrespective of how they got there. But back to the final 8, and the first two sides we saw money for were Souths and North Qld. That is nothing new, especially with the Cowboys, but we saw enough bets come for both (at $2.75) to suggest fans think they have “turned the corner”. A bet of $8000 came from Auckland for the Warriors at $1.50, and we have also taken a $2500 bet for Penrith at $2.25. As far as the premiership is concerned, the Bulldogs are now outright favourites at $4.25 ahead of the Roosters ($4.50) and another “firmer” in Brisbane, now into $6 after being backed to win $20,000 over the past few weeks. [Rugby Union | RUGBY UNION] Money is starting to roll in to win next year’s Super 12 title, but not for the favourites. The Crusaders are out to $2.40, but still hold favourtism ahead of the Brumbies at $3. The Auckland Blues are into $8 after opening at $12, and have been backed to take out over $100,000 mostly from New Zealand and South Africa. The Waratahs have been backed to win $30,000 but are still available at $11, and we have taken two bets of $1000 for the Queensland Reds at $14. Even the outsiders, the Bulls from South Africa, have had supporters, now into $81. [Australian Rules | AUSTRALIAN RULES] What is wrong with Carlton supporters? They “won” their first ever wooden spoon this year, the club has been in disarray due to internal strife, and following on from the salary cap “rorts” they have lost draft picks for the next two years. So why do we continue to see money for Carlton to make the final 8 at $3, and even the occasional bet for the Blues to win the premiership at $41. Carlton are currently our worst result, and although new coach Denis Pagan has worked miracles in the past, this task will really test him out! [America’s Cup AMERICA’S CUP] The Louis Vuitton Cup is nearing it’s final stages as Oracle and One World begin a best of seven series to see who will line up against Alinghi in the Louis Vuitton Cup in the new year. Alinghi has been the heavily supported second favourite to win the America’s Cup since betting opened but thankfully punters left us alone to win the Louis Vuitton. In fact the largest bet was only $1000 at $2.85, and a win by Alinghi would be a handy result. The Swiss boat is red hot favourite at $1.20. The first of the repechage between Oracle and One World begins tomorrow (Fri), with Oracle the favourite at $1.55 and One World at $2.25. A British client has placed £3000 on Oracle, but a push from Italy, led by a bet of $USD 1250, has come for One World, so we have a ready made betting contest. As we said last wee, we haven’t really tried to “lay” New Zealand to win the America’s Cup as yet, mainly because we expect to see an avalanche of support just before those races begin. Betting on the Sydney to Hobart Yacht race will open on Friday, but for all those who have been eager to “get on” Alfa Romeo, we can pre-warn you that you will have to take a very short quote as it seems only an accident will prevent it from winning. [Handball | HANDBALL] The Danes won the European’s women’s handball championship last weekend. Our two worst results, Denmark and Norway, met in the final, and by all reports it was an enthralling match which went to Denmark 25-22. There were lots of happy people in Denmark after betting with Centrebet, and the biggest winner was a client from Copenhagen who placed 25,000 DKK ($AUD 5000) at $5.50. In the final, a lot of bookmakers had Norway as favourites, but we went the other way, posting Denmark at $1.95, Norway at $2.10 and the draw at $10 in the “three way” option. In the “two out” option, Denmark were $1.75 and Norway $1.95. In a massive betting game, many 5 and 10,000 DKK bets were placed on Denmark, yet the support for both the draw and Norway outweighed support for the Danes. The biggest bet for Norway at $2.10 was 75,000 NOK ($AUD 15,000), while there were also three individual bets of 10,000 NOK for the draw. Punters bet heavily on the total score being over 44½, which it was, while Norwegian goalkeeper Heidi Tjugam was the taste of Norwegian punters who took the $1.75 that she would “save” the first penalty of the match. [Squash | SQUASH] The unexpected happened when neither of the two favourites Peter Nicol or Jonathon Power, reached the World Squash championship final. Nicol went out in straight games to Scot John White, while Power, after leading by one game against Aussie David Palmer, had to withdraw after being accidentally struck in the eye by Palmers racket. Nicol and Power were the only two backed to win the title, so we were in the ultimate position coming into the final. We listed third seed Palmer as the favourite at $1.72, which a Queenslander took with a bet of $1000. Several other smaller bets were taken, as well as a $200 bet at $4.50 for Palmer to win 3-2, which is eventually what happened, giving Australia another World Champion! [American Football | AMERICAN FOOTBALL] Week 14 of NFL was a good round for favourite backers with no less than 10 of the 16 covering the spread, but once again there were a couple of major upsets which proved the salvation of bookies. The losses by Atlanta (in overtime to Seattle) and New Orleans (went down 32-31 to Minnesota), helped bail us out of what could have been an ordinary round. All in all, it was relatively quiet, but that is not unusual as playoff time approaches. Seattle’s win “knocked out” most parlays as Atlanta ($1.18) were a “banker” in most, while New Orleans were backed heavily to beat a 7 point handicap, including a bet of $9000 from Canada. The early money for Cincinnati and Tampa Bay was way off beam. The 3 points start for Cincinnati against Jacksonville was quickly snapped up, while bets of $9000 and $8000 got to stay with us when Tampa Bay (beat Detroit 23-20) couldn’t cover an 8½ point handicap. There were a few sizeable wagers which came up trumps for punters notably a $13,000 bet on Buffalo at -3 points against San Diego (won 20-13) and three bets, all from Canada, and totaling $27,700, for Denver to cover a 3½ point spread against Kansas, which they did in winning 31-24. Tennessee’s 24-17 win over New England in the Monday night game was also costly. A client from Mexico hit us early with bets totaling $22,000 on Tennessee conceding 2½ points start, and although we took nearly $20,000 worth of bets for New England when we moved the line to a “flat 3”, it was still nowhere near what we had got out of Tennessee in the previous three days. This week there are three games on Saturday, and in a strange occurrence, all the “away” sides are favourites. In the early match, an Aussie client has placed $13,500 on Miami conceding 3 points start to Minnesota, while we have taken two early bets totaling $10,000 for Philadelphia (-6½) against Dallas. As for the rest of the round, playoff implications will affect many of the games as well, and for that reason we haven’t seen a lot of action. Indianapolis (-5) have had a bet of $10,000 from New Zealand placed on them against the Giants, with two clients from Austria and Mexico placing $17,000 between them on Oakland (-3½) against Denver. Tampa Bay and Philadelphia are currently $5 equal favourites to win the Superbowl. It has been an amazing performance by Philadelphia over the past few weeks as they have been winning with their third string quarter back. Only last week we took two $1000 bets for the Eagles to win the Superbowl at $8, but they are still a big winner in our book. [Football | FOOTBALL] Four from ten was the dismal record of favourites last weekend in English Premier League, needless to say it was a very profitable round. We had no trouble at all “laying” Arsenal at $2.10 in their 1-1 draw with Tottenham, and that result has also opened up the title betting. We mentioned last week of a bet of €10,000 for Arsenal at $2.10, and that was closely followed by £8000 at the same quote, but we did also take a £2000 bet for a draw at $3.30. Chelsea were held to a 1-1 draw by Middlesbrough, and while there was a $6000 bet on the draw at $3.30, bets of $16,000 and $12,000 both from Asia, went down with Chelsea. Singapore was the origin of a $15,000 bet for Southampton at $2.45 against Newcastle, and that match also ended in a 1-1 draw. The same client also had $35,000 on Liverpool ($1.75) against Sunderland, but they also went over, with Sunderland winning 2-1. Those were some of the losing bets, but there were several big winners. A bet of 120,000 SEK ($AUD 24,000) was placed on Man United at $1.30 against West Ham (won 3-0), a $10,000 bet went on a draw at $3.40 between Charlton and Man City (2-2), and a $12,000 bet, from Australia, was landed when Leeds ($2.55) disposed of Bolton. Arsenal’s loss has seen “The Gunners” drift to $2.05 to win the league, while Man United are into $2.10. Chelsea are lurking, now at $9, while Liverpool are out to $11. This is an extremely busy time of the year in English Football as they play several times over the next two weeks while the rest of Europe takes a spell after this weekend. Big money will be wagered on these Premier League matches, so we will again be looking for results like last weekend. Arsenal host Middlesbrough this weekend, and we have already taken bets of $8000 and $5000 for Arsenal. $22,000 in three bets from Australia has gone on Man United ($1.90) to defeat Blackburn, and we continue to take bets at $1.80. A bet of €5000 has been placed on Liverpool at $1.80 against Everton, but bets of £1200 and £1500, both from England, have arrived for the draw at $3.40. Man City ($2.35) are another side we have noticed attracting plenty of early bets against Tottenham. Betting on Italian Football has gone through the roof recently, and in fact more was bet on that league last week than England! AC Milan’s ($1.70) defeated Como 2-1, which saw a new German client collect after placing €15,000 on AC Milan, Inter Milan’s 1-0 win over Atalanta benefited a Norwegian who placed a monstrous 180,000 NOK ($AUD 45,000) on Inter at $1.45, and we even found an English punter with £2000 for Lazio ($4), who did a good job to beat Juventus 2-1. Even though there was a result in both of the matches played on Saturday, we managed to come out ahead after another of our German clients placed €8000 on the draw option in both the Piacenza v Chievo game (Chievo won 3-0) and the Bologna v Parma match, which Bologna won 2-1. Two “away” sides have firmed already this weekend. A Malaysian client lumped $20,000 on Roma ($2.10) against Torino, and also had the same amount on Juventus at $1.85, who line up against Perugia. [Miscellaneous | MISCELLANEOUS] Finally, I’d like to take this opportunity to wish all readers, and Centrebet clients, a very safe and happy Christmas, Hopefully you have enjoyed the stories that we compile each week from the offices of Centrebet. We try and cover as much as possible, and look forward to any feedback at all. There will be a shortened form of Centrebet Capers sent out next Tuesday, followed up the next week by a review of 2002, a few “roasts” and “roses”, and maybe even some prognostications for 2003! Tomorrow (Fri), have a look under our “special events” menu, and see what kind of a tipster you are. Merry Xmas! Until next week, good punting. For further information contact Gerard Daffy at Centrebet on 08 89555800 or on centrebet@centrebet.com.
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
