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Aussie
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Centrebet Capers
RUGBY LEAGUE We have released the 2004 NRL title betting, and it does look extremely open. The Sydney Roosters are our opening favourites at $4.50, and they fully deserve the favourtism tag on the back of the teams’ performances over the past two seasons, but the big question mark hanging over the Roosters' heads is that captain Brad Fittler is a year older, and how much longer can he keep going? As the Roosters found out, it is difficult to win back to back titles, and Penrith ($ 6.50) are faced with that next year. We don’t expect a lot of early support for the Panthers as nobody wanted to be on them all season this year, even when they finished minor premiers. There was always an expectation that they would 'fall over', and while they didn't, it is hard to see punters climbing into the shorter odds. The Warriors were the surprise packets of 2003, and look might hard to beat next year. They are a big 'money side' each year, and we expect our Kiwi clients to get behind them again. They didn't have much luck with injuries this year, and if the Warriors can keep Stacey Jones on the paddock, then they are a good chance to chalk up their first title. The next three in the betting, the Bulldogs ($8), Brisbane ($9) and Newcastle ($11), are all risky propositions in our book. The Bulldogs have lost players, Newcastle's reliance on Andrew Johns is even more obvious now than ever before, and we think that the reign of the Broncos is well and truly over. St George- Illawarra are well in the betting at $11, and look to be the big improvers, along with Cronulla ($17). Both sides had terrible seasons this year, the Dragons through injuries, and Cronulla with their internal problems, but both can be a force next year. Parramatta are an interesting side to access, always promising so much, but failing to deliver. On paper they look to have a tough early draw, hence the price of $14, but should the Eels defeat both the Bulldogs and the Broncos, which is on the cards, the big odds will disappear. Of the rest, Canberra ($15) and Melbourne ($23) had good seasons this year, but the question is whether each can take the next step. The two sides we expect rapid improvement from are North Queensland ($34) and Wests Tigers ($41). It would be ambitious to suggest either could win the title, but the lists for both sides look pretty good, and they will prove hard to beat in all games, particularly the Cowboys at home. Manly ($81) and Souths ($101)? We suggest that it would be safe for both clubs' supporters to make alternative arrangements for September year, rather than worrying about the finals! RUGBY UNION Rugby is over for 2003 in this part of the world, but some would be interested to see that we have a market up on who the next All Blacks coach will be. There has been much conjecture in the 'land of the long white cloud' as to whether John Mitchell would retain his spot, or whether it would go to Graham Henry. We have posted Henry at $1.50 to take over the top job, not because we think he is a better coach, but there is a form line that points towards Mitchell having to go and look for something else. Previously, Alex Wyllie, Laurie Mains and John Hart have not survived losing World Cup Tournaments, so the $2.50 we are offering for Mitchell doesn't seem that attractive. One big thing in his favour is his popularity, but Henry has done a marvellous job at Auckland as technical adviser to Wayne Pivac, so the NZRU have a difficult decision on their hands. BASKETBALL There are two NBL games on tonight (Wed), and here is a preview for both:- SYDNEY v WEST SYDNEY The Sydney derbies do not quite match the Melbourne derbies of the 90's for intensity, but they are getting there. Leading up to the Razorback's first visit to the Kingdome this year, there was a lot of talk from the Razorbacks about going there to kick butt, however they didn't have the game to match the talk and that encounter was well and truly over by half-time with the visitors trailing by 30 points. A lack of talk from the West Sydney camp leading up to this game is possibly a good thing and hopefully they will concentrate on playing the game rather than talking it. It is a period of transition for the Kings as firstly they make the adjustments to overcome the loss of Jason Smith, and then will need to undergo further changes when new import Ryan Fletcher gets clearance to play. The addition of Fletcher is a direct admission that Wollongong are too big for the Kings to compete with, and while Fletcher may help address the rebounding deficiency he will do nothing to help cover the loss of Smith. Three point shooting and the ability to shut down perimeter scorers are two of the qualities that Smith possesses and Fletcher isn't that type of player. This will definitely be a new look Kings outfit by the New Year. With Trahair still likely to miss for the Razorbacks, they miss an opportunity to punish the Kings from outside but can still rely on Rillie and Dwight to keep the Kings' defence honest. Both teams are coming off losses last week and will be keen to atone. Nielsen has taken the rebounding problem personally and has vowed to turn it around but he can only keep one Razorback off the offensive glass and unless some other Kings step up, West Sydney will get enough second opportunities to inflict the Kings second loss in as many games. We haven’t seen any big money for the Kings (-7) as yet, so they may event get to a better quote. TOWNSVILLE v PERTH Both these teams were tipped strongly as Championship contenders, but if the play-offs were to begin now, both would be spectators. Townsville are at 3W-10L which is dangerously close to the 3-11 record that precipitated their dramatic change of fortunes last season. They should avoid last season's mark as Perth make the visit without Ricky Grace and the Crocodiles have Jeremy Veal returning from injury. Hopefully being the Foxsports televised game will bring out the best in these sides as they both have been responsible for some fairly ordinary basketball this season. Perth may be able to turn it around but the reality is they have been terrible without Ricky Grace. It can't help when first year coach Mike Ellis is undecided if Travis Lane or import Tucker should be playing in the one spot in Grace's absence. Far be it from us to give coaching advice, but Ellis seems to be struggling and the whole of Perth is beginning to think that the nepotism of the Black/Black combination was not such a bad thing. Lane was recruited as a back-up point guard. Tucker was recruited as a small forward and had 10 turnovers when playing in the one spot for part of the Adelaide game. It shouldn't be that difficult Mike to decide to play a point guard in the point guard position! The money has been for Townsville both to win ($1.42) and cover a 5½ point handicap, which does seem under the odds. GOLF The conclusion of the Australasian Tour got into full swing at the Australian Mastercard Masters on the weekend at Huntingdale and what better way to promote the game of golf than a four way play-off featuring four of Australia’s leading players. The first highlight of what proved to be a dramatic final day was a brilliant eight under round of 64 from Adam Scott, setting a new course record and first into the clubhouse at eleven under par. The next hour of play was full of tension as four other players, Allenby, Parry, Moseley and Lonard all attempted to land the illustrious “green jacket”. That tension brought about the demise of Peter Lonard, who after reaching eleven under par, bogeyed 16 and 18 to fall back to nine under. Craig Parry, twelve under coming to the final hole pushed his approach right and failed to get up and down. Jarrod Moseley, after birdies at 13 and 16 had makeable putts at the final two holes to claim victory but failed to convert, and finally Robert Allenby, twelve under with two to play, in the final group, pushed his drive on 17 left to find the water and subsequently make bogey. The drama was not complete after 72 holes however as the four players re-grouped for a sudden-death play off commencing at the difficult eighteenth. Betting at this stage saw Scott favourite at $2.75 from Allenby $3.25 and both Parry and Moseley at $4. Scott was obviously in the zone but Allenbys’ play off record, seven wins from as many attempts indicated the $3.25 may prove to be value. All played solid drives to find the fairway but it was Scott, with a sublime iron to five feet who was to hold the edge, Parry and Moseley failed to make birdie, while Allenby rolled in a difficult twelve footer which was matched by Scott. We were down to a head to head between the two tournament favourites as they played the eighteenth for a second time, where Scotts’ luck ran out as his drive hit a spectator and ran into the fairway bunker. A great approach to the middle of the green put him back in the game but it was here where Allenby showed why he is the play off king hitting his approach to four feet. Scott found his putt too difficult while Allenby converted to claim his first “green jacket” and take his play off record to eight from eight. On tour this week we head to the Hyatt Regency Coolum on the Sunshine Coast for the Australian PGA Championship where joint defending champions, Peter Lonard and Jarrod Moseley take on an inform Adam Scott. Best backed has been Scott ($6) and O’Malley ($21), both to win $50,000 by the same client who supported them last week at Huntingdale. Also solid has been Peter Lonard at $8 along with Brendan Jones at $34 and Brett Rumford $51 but Moseley and Parry on last weeks form should prove tough to beat. The Hong Kong Open announced the commencement of the new European Tour with a dramatic victory to Irishman Padraig Harrington. Harrington had a double birdie finish to edge out South African Hennie Otto by one shot and in doing so claimed the first event of the European Tour for the second year in a row. Best backed were Thomas Bjorn and Darren Clarke who both finished resolutely for a tie for third but had given too much ground to the winner. The final event on the PGA Tour is the Target World Challenge promoted by Tiger Woods. Woods, winner in 2001 is favourite at $3 from Vijay Singh at $5.50 and Davis Love at $7, both backed to win over $50,000 by a South African client. Recent globe trotting winners Harrington ($12) and Allenby ($17) should also figure in the finish if neither are suffering from jet lag but expect 2003 PGA Player of the Year, Tiger Woods, to prove a point. CRICKET Not put off by the draw in the first test between Australia and India at the GABBA, our Indian punters have come at us again with money for the Aussies to win the second test which begins in Adelaide on Friday. The weather looks likely to be much better than it was last week, and one thing favouring the Indians in Adelaide is that the wicket there normally takes spin. Australia opened at $1.80, which was taken by two bets totaling nearly $60,000 from India, and there have been a string of smaller bets as well. The impressive batting line-ups for both sides has seen some interest shown in the draw at $2.75, and even a few Australian punters have bet against the home side, with three separate bets of $1000 coming for India at $9. They showed enough in the limited amount of play in Brisbane to suggest that they are not as bad as the critic's said, and the Adelaide Oval has provided several upsets in years gone by. The first test was marred by rain, but as we pointed out, bad weather has become synonymous with the Brisbane test each year. The big money that we took for an Australian win all came over a week before the game started, however we still saw some bets come in on the morning of the match beginning ( one of $12,000 at $1.67 ) even when it was common knowledge rain would intervene. Plenty of tests have been won inside of four days, and with so much money for Australia before the match started, the rain gave us a chance to balance the book up. On Friday, we took some big bets on the draw at $1.65, including $25,000 and $15,000, and even as late as Sunday we took another bet of $19,500 fro the draw at $1.08. It looked a mere formality, but when the Aussies were sent in again on Monday, the early loss of Justin Langer gave us a glimmer of hope for an Indian victory. It wasn’t to be, but it did once again prove that in modern day cricket, any result is achievable. TENNIS Things have gone quiet on the tennis betting scene since the Davis Cup, but this week we opened up betting on the men’s section of the Australian Open, and there has been plenty of early activity. Roger Federer is opening favourite at $4.50 ahead of Andy Roddick at $5, with Roddick attracting more attention. Andre Agassi is next in commission ($7) ahead of Lleyton Hewitt at $8. Hewitt has already been backed to take out close top $30,000, but although he was part of the Davis Cup winning team, he just doesn’t seem to be the player he was. Argentinian David Nalbandian is one of the best backed players so far, having been supported to win close to $50,000 at $21, and there has been constant support for Mark Philippoussis at the same quote. One player who we think is a risk, but haven't seen any money for yet, has been Juan Carlos Ferrero. We have priced the Spaniard up at $11, and some of his recent comments suggest he thinks the season is far too long, and he is not happy having to come here. Not the right frame of mind to be in tackling an event like this! Men’s tennis is very unpredictable these days, and looking for a couple of 'roughies' who might win the Open, we have come up with Taylor Dent ($41) and the enigmatic Marat Safin ($41). Dent has the game for this surface, and impressed at different stages throughout this year, whereas Safin had a quiet year through injury. The reports are that he is back to his best, and if that is true, he might surprise a few during January. The betting on the women’s title will not be open until the availability of the Williams sisters is known. ENTERTAINMENT The lady in the red sent Miss World betting agencies into the red when the daughter of Irish pop star Chris de Burgh won this year's edition of the beauty pageant at the Sheraton Sanya Resort in China on Saturday. Miss Ireland, otherwise known as Rosanna Davidson, was our joint third favourite at $15 when we became the first bookmaker to issue prices on the 2003 competition and, even though we backed her heavily with other agencies and promoted her to clear favouritism as soon as the Miss World Organisation announced that she had won the inaugural Miss World Beach Beauty contest, it was insufficient to stop us recording a loss on the event, such was the worldwide gamble on the teenage student with the famous father. Allegations surfaced within hours of the pageant concluding that Miss Ireland's family connections influenced the result, citing suspicious betting patterns as supporting evidence. While Miss Ireland was the best backed contestant in Miss World history, it was only after Rosanna's Miss World Beach Beauty competition victory, a triumph that assured her of a spot in the main event's top 20, that our clients identified her as the delegate to beat. One did not have to be a rocket scientist to deduce that the woman adjudged to look best in a bikini would have an excellent chance of landing the star prize. Even so, there was good money for many delegates other than Miss Ireland in the hours leading up to the contest, with our punters seeing value in our odds on Miss Norway ($9), Miss Venezuela ($11) and most interestingly, Miss Ethiopia ($41), a lively outsider who won the Queen of Africa title subsequently. There is a good tussle for favouritism to win the World Idol between our own Guy Sebastian and America's Kelly Clarkson. Both are currently quoted at $3, but the cards are falling the right way for our representative. The word is that Guy will be singing 'Climb Every Mountain', the song which won him the Aussie title, but more importantly, he will be the last of the eleven acts, a big advantage. Both he and Clarkson have had most of the support between them, but all eleven have had their share of backing. It still hasn't been confirmed yet whether each country will be allowed to vote for their rep. If that is barred, then Guy will be the big winner out of that decision, and will zoom into a very short quote. BOXING The name Spinks is synonymous with boxing, but Cory Spinks, son of the legendary Leon (conqueror of Muhammad Ali) will go into the Undisputed Welterweight Championship of the world in Atlantic City this weekend as a $4.50 underdog. There has been a sprinkling of support for Spinks following two controversial losses, but the bigger money, including one bet of $8000, is for favourite Ricardo Mayorga. Mayorga has an interesting training regime in that he smokes two packets of cigarettes a day! The Nicaraguan is coming off two slugging victories over Vernon Forrest, and that form should see Mayorga get the judges nod. It is however a 'Don King' fight, so anything could happen! Our German clients have jumped on the $1.30 we were offering for Sven Ottke to beat Robin Reid in the IBF Super middleweight title bout in Germany on Saturday. Reid, a former WBC Super middleweight titleholder, has been struggling, and given that the fight is in Germany, he would need to win every single round clearly if he is to have any hope at all. Ottke has defended this title 20 times, and while he is getting on in years, this should be another victory. Until next week, good punting. For further information contact Gerard Daffy at Centrebet on 08 89555800 or centrebet@centrebet.com.
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