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Aussie
Rules
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Centrebet Capers
RUGBY LEAGUE It is always pleasing to see when other operators endorse your prices, and that is what happened with our opening rugby league market last week. Within hours of next season's prices going up, one of our rivals opened their prices, and apart from 'top dressing' a few roughies, they bore a striking resemblance to what we had arrived at, so it was good to have some satisfaction that we agree on what the prices should be ! Amazingly, the only side that hasn't attracted a single bet so far has been the Premiers, Penrith. Every other team has had at least one bet placed on them, with the best backed being Brisbane and New Zealand. Both have had more than a dozen bets placed on them, a lot considering the timing, with the largest of those being $2000 for the Warriors at $8. Final 8 and wooden spoon betting is opened, with Souths the $2.65 favourite to finish at the bottom of the table ahead of Manly at $3.25. As yet we haven't struck a blow in wooden spoon betting, but North Qld have attracted a handful of bets at $2.50 to make the finals for the first time, while Newcastle have had a wager of $7000 placed on them at $1.43. Each year, at least one of the 'name' sides misses the final eight; I wonder who it will be in 2004? CRICKET Well, Adelaide Oval provided a 'bonanza' for bookies when India came from seemingly nowhere to win the second test, and go one up in the series. Those who took the $1.16 for Australia to win the series would be feeling a bit ordinary at the moment, with Australia having to win the last two tests for them to win. The biggest of those bets was $80,000, and now the Aussies are out to $2.65, with a lot of work to do. The second test saw all three options 'odds on' at different stages, so you don’t have to have a degree in mathematics to work out it was good for bookies. Lat week we mentioned some of the bigger bets for Australia at $1.80 before the match started, and they were easy to sell at even shorter odds than that as they piled on the runs. When the Indians got their chance with the willow, they collapsed immediately, and when they were 4/80, it looked certain we were in for an early finish, but Dravid and Laxman had other ideas, and were the catalysts behind the huge Indian total. While they were doing this, the price for a 'draw' got shorter and shorter, touching $1.28 at one stage. Several big bets were taken as the price tumbled, including one of $14,000 at $1.28 from one of our Indian clients looking to 'bail out'. Instead of bailing out, he only got into more trouble as he was already on the Aussies! The unthinkable happened, and the Indian bowlers dismissed Australia for a meagre total of 196. At this stage, India were still at a 'backable' $1.80, which saw bets of $15,000 and $11,800 come from Aussie punters. At the end of the days play when the Indians were 37 for no loss, serious action came for India at $1.25 (two bets of $20,000), and money also for Australia to win at $4. What this result has done is made the whole summer more interesting, especially the Boxing Day test. We have opened this up already, and it is going to be a ripper! The opening $1.80 for Australia was taken with a $USD 25,000, and plenty of Aussie punters jumped into the $6.50 for India now that they have proven they can win away from home. As yet there has only been a little bit of money for the draw at $2.70, but one thing we have become accustomed to is rain during the Boxing Day Test! We continue to cover most major cricket matches around the world, and today (Thurs) Sri Lanka go in as $2.10 favourites to beat England in Colombo. The English got out of the second test with an unlikely draw, and go into this match as the outsiders at $6.50. A Sydney punter holds the honour of having placed the biggest bet on this test with a $9000 wager on The draw at $2.10 On Friday, New Zealand host Pakistan in the first test at Hamilton. These two sides look evenly matched, but both are very inconsistent, and can collapse quickly under pressure. There has been money for New Zealand, including two bets of $6000 at $2.80. Both of these matches will be updated daily. GOLF The season ending Target World Challenge provided more than a career biggest pay check for Davis Love as he held on to defeat Tiger Woods by two shots. Woods was ten shots behind with ten holes to play, then unleashed six birdies in seven holes to cut Love’s lead to one after Love made a double-bogey at twelve. The rain dropping off Love’s face could be confused with beads of nervous perspiration as he could envisage what was an unassailable lead being overhauled by the magic that is Tiger Woods. However Woods could only complete the final three holes in par as Love made an incredible 45ft birdie putt at sixteen to increase his lead to two. Love too was to complete the final three holes in par to finish with a closing round even-par 72 in what was difficult conditions, a round he was thankful to complete. Last year’s winner Padraig Harrington closed with one under par 71 to finish third, three shots behind Woods while K.J. Choi, three shots behind Love in sole second position at the completion of three rounds, succumbed to the pressure with a closing five over-par 77. The penultimate event on the Australian tour calendar, the Australian PGA Championship, saw Peter Senior record his first victory since the Canon Classic in 1997. At 44, the ultra-competitive Senior becomes the second oldest player to win the championship behind Kel Nagle, who was 48 when he claimed his fourth title in 1968. Senior virtually led all the way having led by five strokes at the completion of the second round. As mentioned last week, Adam Scott was all the rage at $6, and backed to win over $50,000 by a local client, however Senior himself had his share of admirer’s at $101, with several clients claiming us at that quote. In hindsight it did represent value as it was only a disappointing third round, three over-par 75 which prevented him from featuring on the final day of the MasterCard Masters. Punters were also keen to take the $2.35 on offer after the second round with one wager of $5,000 placed at that price. Senior did not let his supporters down as he held his composure to retain his five shot lead entering the final round as his price plummeted into $1.28. A spirited final round challenge from Rod Pampling was not enough to un-nerve Senior, who played solid if not spectacular golf, and hold on to win by a shot. The final event of the Australasian Tour, The Australian Open, is being held this week and on a course most of these players have never seen before, Moonah Links, on the Peninsula east of Melbourne. This is a typical links course, long with strategically placed bunkers and lots of wind. Stuart Appleby, a runner-up in the British Open at Muirfield last year, has declared this is a tougher course than St Andrews, so under par scores will be in short supply and perhaps players’ with links experience will prove difficult to beat. Despite the warning signs, PGA players Rod Pampling ($17), Geoff Ogilvy ($21) and Greg Chalmers ($41) along with Peter O’Malley ($21), have all been backed to win over $50,000 by one of our hot golfing punters, with also solid support for Appleby at $9 from the general public. Our tip is to stick with those players who handle links courses well, with perhaps Nick O’Hern and Stephen Leaney the best value of those. YACHTING The Sydney to Hobart yacht race fleet will leave Sydney Harbour on Boxing Day for the trip south, and betting opened this week on the time-honoured event. Scandia, formally Wild Thing, is nominal favourite, and on the lead up form, looks the one to beat. This is a completely new yacht from the one that raced last year, and with a 'state of the art' keel, it is hard to go past the Super maxi as the winner. The opening $1.65 has been taken, and with the recent history of favourites winning, only an accident, or a storm, is standing between Scandia, or the other maxi entrant, Zana ($2.40) grabbing line honours in Hobart. So impressive has Scandia been over the past two weeks that they are talking of breaking the race record by 12 hours. Zana is the 'unknown', also a new yacht, and comes from New Zealand. The crew have opted not to take part in the lead ups, but we have taken nearly $3000 in bets from Kiwi punters, so they aren't lacking confidence. Grundig and Nicorette, both previous winners, and both at $9, have attracted some support, but apart from those yachts, there is little interest in the rest of the field. 'Top three' betting will be available on Friday, and there will also be some 'group betting' available. Unfortunately, the focus is always on the winner of the great race, but betting on groups away from the favourites should generate a bit of interest. FOOTBALL Many soccer supporters will spend the European winter months looking forward to the Champions League first knockout round ties that kick off in February, but there is a football fan in our backyard that may have nightmares about the draw that paired two of the six former winners. That is because Champions League glory for Real Madrid is all that stands between one of Centrebet's Australian punters and a cool quarter of a million dollars. Back in September, he wagered $6,500 on a six-leg American football, motor racing, rugby league and soccer accumulator. Three months later and five successful selections later, he is waiting to see if Real Madrid can get past Bayern München in the undoubted pick of the first knockout round match-ups and go on to win UEFA's leading club competition for the tenth time. The punter must have shed tears when news reached Australia of Real's next assignment because Bayern were, thanks to the complicated draw regulations, one of just three teams that the Meringues could meet. The others were tournament outsiders Lokomotiv Moskva and Sparta. Most of Europe's football competitions will shut down for a few weeks over the Christmas and New Year period - English leagues are the exception to this rule - so other events will take centre stage. ELECTIONS After two weeks of solid betting on next years Australian Federal election following Mark Latham's rise to the helm of the Labor Party, interest in that has now died down, with this week's focus firmly placed on next years US Presidential Election race. We had George Bush favourite at $1.55 ahead of the likely Democrats rep Howard Dean at $2.75. Dean was at a higher quote, but in all likelihood will win the Democrats nod to go head to head with Bush. Betting was going along nicely at those prices, including a $4000 bet from California for Bush at the $1.55. Then the market fluctuated dramatically after Saddam Hussein's capture, with Bush into $1.30. That wasn't as a result of money, just our interpretation of where the market might settle, and we were proven correct with another $3000 in bets coming for Bush at that quote. A lot can happen between now and when the next President will be known, but Saddam's arrest was a big 'plus' for the Bush camp. Finally as next week is Christmas, Centrebet Capers will be having the week off, but will return the following week with a wrap up of 2003, and a look at 2004. We would like to take this opportunity to wish all a very merry and safe Christmas. Until next week, good punting. For further information contact Gerard Daffy at Centrebet on 08 89555800 or centrebet@centrebet.com.
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